Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
I think you misread @Stuartinromford, and are perhaps projecting by assuming everyone is as invested in their tribal election loyalties as you are. “Labour are 7 points down” was obviously closer to propaganda than commentary.
Anyone with an American accent should be banned from football commentary.
Why?
Ian's still bitter over 1950.
Or 1776.
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.
Plassey was 1757...
Private battle.
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.
Big distinction without a difference energy here, we are talking about the same elites wearing very slightly different hats. Frinstance Sir Ed Pellew/Lord Exmouth came back from being Admiral in charge of the Indian Ocean with 30 million in today earth pounds in presents from HEIC.
The point being that at the time of Plassey and, slightly later, the American Revolution, Great Britain did not have vast armies in India that could have been used to supress the North American rebellion. Those Indian armies were mostly native forces, raised by the East India Company and officered by Britons who would later transfer into regular posts in the British Army. They were funded by wealthy Indian Merchant Banker families.
Even by 1776 the writing was on the wall with the retreat from Boston, and after Saratoga the game was up.
The war, like many others was lost politically even before the military defeats.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
Canning HS2 is unforgivable. There again no one needs to get from Birmingham to Leeds or Manchester when they live in Laguna Beach.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Not in most polls.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.
But you know I'm right.
My only worry is that my betting position is best on Con 26%+ and 150+ seats.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.
CON might be ok in London, Scotland and their traditional English county seats not red wall and recognising some losses to LD but perhaps not as many as some might expect. 150 seats and 26% could be on but at top end of current realistic hopes DYOR
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
I'm adding to my list of things Sunak has chosen to do:
> Cancel the important bits of national renewal project, HS2. > Fight a car centric culture war from a v-close byelection. > Superficial moves on smoking, maths for all, banning killer cyclists. > Rwanda. > Stopping boats. > Asset stripping councils. > Shunting all the big fiscal decisions to 2025. > Call an election in July. > National service > Bifurcated taxation.
He's certainly driven stuff. Just the stuff is pretty poor.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.
I agree, but letter of the law is studs on ankle red card. Shin pads and no cards back in our day!
Two footed sliding tackle in the box was always a red at this level. Well, since I’ve been watching from the late 80s.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
@Richard_Tyndall got there before me but this is the thing. There is huge continuity between the administrations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak. They are not different administrations. It’s a convenient fiction that attempts to wipe the slate clean.
There was an actual break in administration and ideology between Cameron and Johnson, with May the transitional PM, such that you could argue they really were different parties. And Johnson won an election with the mandate that brings. But since then it’s just been court intrigue within a single party of government that needs to be judged on the totality of its term of office, not just the time since November 2022.
Ok it’s an absolutely fair point. I would ask however, do you think that a Treasury Sec or even a Chancellor can act independently of their boss’ will, ie the PM? They can disagree but cabinet responsibility and hierarchy - same for any party.
Let’s think of any organisation. You are COO and the CEO is a douche. You work for him and do what you need to do as well as you can but ultimately it’s the CEO who decides what happens and what doesn’t, the culture, actions etc.
When you get a surprise promotion to CEO from COO because the CEO was busted with hookers and coke and you find you need to rebuild elements of the company are you then running the same company or are you transitioning the company to what you think will work? It can’t happen overnight but it’s no longer the same company even if the changes take time to filter through.
Can you be realistically blamed for the decisions of the previous CEO? He was the boss and even if you disagreed behind closed doors his decisions were final. It’s completely unrealistic to think that it’s any other way.
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.
Every so often I feel a strange urge to listen to Del Amitri, Waking hours in full. Only ever in autumn or winter. I’ve no idea why, I like it but not like other groups I listen to full albums by. Maybe it’s a good album or maybe it’s just associated with a time and place. Aztec Camera is just one song that gets played a lot at parties and is a classic, the Frattelis Chelsea Dagger is one of the most overplayed ordinary songs .
1. I hate Chelsea Dagger. Whistle for the Choir, Look out Sunshine, Lupe Brown, are the point.
2. Waking Hours is pretty much flawless, let down only by Nothing Ever Happens, which itself is only let down by its over popularity. Stone Cold Sober Is a top 20 of all time song.
3. Aztec Camera - I had to spend a night in Glasgow a bit ago in a grotty holiday inn by a coach station which made me sad till I realised that I was on KILLERMONT STREET. They bat a bit deeper than SIMH.
I do have to listen to certain albums in full such as Waking Hours but I find they are largely from teenage years - I guess it’s because at that time there wasn’t the internet and Spotify and we didn’t have tv at school really so you would play albums and find that different albums were for certain moods or created certain moods.
I love my autumn/winter albums such as Waking Hours, Disintegration. fisherman’s Blues, Ten, The best of the Beatles, the summer albums such as Soul II Soul club Classics, Good Morning Vietnam soundtrack. Not all serious but it’s really easy to just flip from song to song now and not enjoy albums.
In 2018 I crossed the Atlantic Canaries to St Lucia with a device full of downloaded music, not realising that Amazon check you once a month to make sure you are still paying. Check time was minute after we lost signal so no music till we picked up signal 14 days later. Waking Hours was the first thing I listened to.
The limit for Reform is Nigel Farage. He can go a long way but probably has an ultimate limit of 30% ish of people who will consider voting for him. I don't think the 'challenger right wing party' will ultimately be led by him.
If 30% support Reform and 15% Tory, you have a Reform/Tory government with Farage as PM.
Even if I liked Farage and Reform's policies I'd never vote for him because he wouldn't be able to enact them.
You need to be a good team manager and skilled at organisation to get things done in politics, and build political alliances and coalitions domestically and internationally.
Farage can't do this - instead we'd get a lot of bloviated grandstanding in Parliament whilst nothing changed and he'd quit in a strop after 4 months - so what's the point?
If the Cons do get flushed around the U bend and Farage changes Reform's name to "Conservative" surely that would make things OK again. I suspect it would be enough for HY.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
I'm adding to my list of things Sunak has chosen to do:
> Cancel the important bits of national renewal project, HS2. > Fight a car centric culture war from a v-close byelection. > Superficial moves on smoking, maths for all, banning killer cyclists. > Rwanda. > Stopping boats. > Asset stripping councils. > Shunting all the big fiscal decisions to 2025. > Call an election in July. > National service > Bifurcated taxation.
He's certainly driven stuff. Just the stuff is pretty poor.
> Triple Quadruple Lock > Housing
Hunt has done a good job with NI, but by doing the polar opposite of what Sunak did as Chancellor!!!
Anyone with an American accent should be banned from football commentary.
Why?
Ian's still bitter over 1950.
Or 1776.
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.
Plassey was 1757...
Private battle.
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.
Big distinction without a difference energy here, we are talking about the same elites wearing very slightly different hats. Frinstance Sir Ed Pellew/Lord Exmouth came back from being Admiral in charge of the Indian Ocean with 30 million in today earth pounds in presents from HEIC.
The point being that at the time of Plassey and, slightly later, the American Revolution, Great Britain did not have vast armies in India that could have been used to supress the North American rebellion. Those Indian armies were mostly native forces, raised by the East India Company and officered by Britons who would later transfer into regular posts in the British Army. They were funded by wealthy Indian Merchant Banker families.
“The accidental Empire” really is quite apt. Especially when you consider it was all started by post-civil war levellers who hated empires, and themselves lit the flames of 1776.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
I'm adding to my list of things Sunak has chosen to do:
> Cancel the important bits of national renewal project, HS2. > Fight a car centric culture war from a v-close byelection. > Superficial moves on smoking, maths for all, banning killer cyclists. > Rwanda. > Stopping boats. > Asset stripping councils. > Shunting all the big fiscal decisions to 2025. > Call an election in July. > National service > Bifurcated taxation.
He's certainly driven stuff. Just the stuff is pretty poor.
There was also an initiative where Council's compete with each other to apply for £10k towards outdoor chessboards. A game changer.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
Just had a bit of Youtube music on in the background, a mediaeval tune called Merrie Summer ilast came up on the playlist...
I just casually saw a comment from @ReformUk, logo and all; "It is imperative that British culture and history be preserved, especially in these times".
Except the song was being sung by a Polish mediaeval group and was recorded in a church in Gdynia.
Its not just the stupid racism that makes these people such twats. Its the stupid stupid.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?
Tories. The Tories! The Tories. The Tories.The Tories! The TORIES! THE Tories. THE TORIES. *The Tories* The. Tories. TORIES. Tories. Tories. THE TORIES. *THE TORRRIIEESS!!*
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
@Richard_Tyndall got there before me but this is the thing. There is huge continuity between the administrations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak. They are not different administrations. It’s a convenient fiction that attempts to wipe the slate clean.
There was an actual break in administration and ideology between Cameron and Johnson, with May the transitional PM, such that you could argue they really were different parties. And Johnson won an election with the mandate that brings. But since then it’s just been court intrigue within a single party of government that needs to be judged on the totality of its term of office, not just the time since November 2022.
Ok it’s an absolutely fair point. I would ask however, do you think that a Treasury Sec or even a Chancellor can act independently of their boss’ will, ie the PM? They can disagree but cabinet responsibility and hierarchy - same for any party.
Let’s think of any organisation. You are COO and the CEO is a douche. You work for him and do what you need to do as well as you can but ultimately it’s the CEO who decides what happens and what doesn’t, the culture, actions etc.
When you get a surprise promotion to CEO from COO because the CEO was busted with hookers and coke and you find you need to rebuild elements of the company are you then running the same company or are you transitioning the company to what you think will work? It can’t happen overnight but it’s no longer the same company even if the changes take time to filter through.
Can you be realistically blamed for the decisions of the previous CEO? He was the boss and even if you disagreed behind closed doors his decisions were final. It’s completely unrealistic to think that it’s any other way.
But Sunak since entering Number 10 hasn't made things better, he's made them worse.
On housing, on spending, on taxation, on national service his record is appalling. Worse than his predecessors.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Not in most polls.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.
But you know I'm right.
My only worry is that my betting position is best on Con 26%+ and 150+ seats.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.
It's possible. But I'm still not sure about Reform's real appeal.
Worth looking back to 2015; UKIP polling was generally even higher than Reform now - multiple VIs at 20+% IIRC - but still only managed 12.6% in the actual vote.
While that may now be taken into account in methodologies, pricing in a degree of apathy/skittishness, I still think Reform will significantly underperform their VI polling at the actual vote.
The Telegraph have a column called "The Secret Tory Candidate" (think Secret Barrister) and it's quite revealing:
I’m already having to get by with about a quarter of the number of volunteers who helped us campaign locally in 2019. Even a lot of people who are willing to deliver leaflets aren’t prepared to knock on doors and canvass because they can see the polls and the national atmosphere. As it happens, people we’ve spoken to on the doorstep are a lot politer than you might think.
But the amount of time I’m having to spend cajoling traditional Conservative voters to vote for us on July 4 is worrying. Sometimes it’s 15-minute conversations trying to get them off Reform. My pitch is to make it really clear to them that this is a vote for me – not Rishi. Sadly, what used to just be indifference and apathy towards him seems to have hardened. He has become a drag.
One couple I canvassed yesterday were pretty typical of older, skilled working-class voters in my constituency. They were previously Conservative voters but think Rishi is out of touch and doesn’t get the lives of ordinary people. They felt it was time to change and they wanted a Labour government. They quite like Keir Starmer.
In this case, they’d decided that a Labour government would get voted in regardless of what happens here, so they decided to vote for me because they like me locally and don’t think there’s any risk that they’ll help to elect us as a government nationally.
A lot of us are in utter despair now, particularly after the publication of an underwhelming manifesto. The risk of a super-majority Labour Party is grave but we’re walking into the abyss.
Tellingly, the Conservative MPs’ Whatsapp group is eerily quiet – hardly anyone is messaging in it. Yesterday Damian Green put a message out about canvassing. But no one replied.
There was just tumbleweed.
But that is hardly surprising. It feels like we’re being destroyed by poor political leadership and the behaviour of those around Rishi.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.
I agree, but letter of the law is studs on ankle red card. Shin pads and no cards back in our day!
Two footed sliding tackle in the box was always a red at this level. Well, since I’ve been watching from the late 80s.
I suggest you watch Don Revie's Leeds squad from 1971 or Johnny Giles' promotion winning West Brom side from 1976.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Angela Rayner never implied Labour were going to put capital gains on primary residences . At worst you could say she didn’t rule out increasing the rate on other property .
The Tories should start going after Reform and stop wasting their time on these pathetic imaginary Labour tax rises .
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
I don't accept Truss was obviously worse.
She mucked up with the mini budget but she corrected course by appointing Hunt who is doing a good job. By then her fate was sealed though.
Sunak has just made things worse since and there's good reason he's now polling worse than Truss's lowest point.
This might be old news to some, apologies, but my colleagues and I discovered a game today that I think Casino and Leon might enjoy: vegan alternatives to popular meat-associated idioms.
So...
'Flogging a dead horse' becomes 'Feeding a fed horse'. 'Killing two birds with one stone' becomes 'Feeding two birds with one scone', and my personal favourite: 'Taking the bull by the horns' becomes 'taking the flower by the thorns'.
tbh we all felt the examples were a bit tame, and I immediately thought of PB. I'm sure we can make some good suggestions. Vegan-friendly idioms please. A slice of freshly grilled venison to the best one.
Brexit, the great unmentionable of this election, is really what has done for the Tories. It’s infuriated both those who voted to remain, who see it as a colossal self-inflicted disaster, and those who voted leave, who think they were told a pack of lies. Result: annihilation.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
The fundamentals of his approval ratings are improving.
I appreciate you are working through the grief reaction, and currently in the bargaining phase, so I hope it consoles you.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?
Tories. The Tories! The Tories. The Tories.The Tories! The TORIES! THE Tories. THE TORIES. *The Tories* The. Tories. TORIES. Tories. Tories. THE TORIES. *THE TORRRIIEESS!!*
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
Bear in mind the Yougov question which started this discussion was not who was the worst of the last 5 PMs. The question was:
"If the Conservative party loses the election in July, which of their prime ministers since 2010 do you think will be most responsible?"
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?
Tories. The Tories! The Tories. The Tories.The Tories! The TORIES! THE Tories. THE TORIES. *The Tories* The. Tories. TORIES. Tories. Tories. THE TORIES. *THE TORRRIIEESS!!*
It's all you have.
Why don't you turn on ITV and watch Scotland get utterly spanked by Germany? You'll feel much better.
The Telegraph have a column called "The Secret Tory Candidate" (think Secret Barrister) and it's quite revealing:
I’m already having to get by with about a quarter of the number of volunteers who helped us campaign locally in 2019. Even a lot of people who are willing to deliver leaflets aren’t prepared to knock on doors and canvass because they can see the polls and the national atmosphere. As it happens, people we’ve spoken to on the doorstep are a lot politer than you might think.
But the amount of time I’m having to spend cajoling traditional Conservative voters to vote for us on July 4 is worrying. Sometimes it’s 15-minute conversations trying to get them off Reform. My pitch is to make it really clear to them that this is a vote for me – not Rishi. Sadly, what used to just be indifference and apathy towards him seems to have hardened. He has become a drag.
One couple I canvassed yesterday were pretty typical of older, skilled working-class voters in my constituency. They were previously Conservative voters but think Rishi is out of touch and doesn’t get the lives of ordinary people. They felt it was time to change and they wanted a Labour government. They quite like Keir Starmer.
In this case, they’d decided that a Labour government would get voted in regardless of what happens here, so they decided to vote for me because they like me locally and don’t think there’s any risk that they’ll help to elect us as a government nationally.
A lot of us are in utter despair now, particularly after the publication of an underwhelming manifesto. The risk of a super-majority Labour Party is grave but we’re walking into the abyss.
Tellingly, the Conservative MPs’ Whatsapp group is eerily quiet – hardly anyone is messaging in it. Yesterday Damian Green put a message out about canvassing. But no one replied.
There was just tumbleweed.
But that is hardly surprising. It feels like we’re being destroyed by poor political leadership and the behaviour of those around Rishi.
Do you remember the Not the Nine O’Clock News sketch about the Tory campaign driver? “Go on, just one more job. No one needs to see your face”.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
He got the job as CoE because he was willing to do whatever he was told, when Javid was not, and I suspect he has continued to do as he is told as PM.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.
I agree, but letter of the law is studs on ankle red card. Shin pads and no cards back in our day!
Two footed sliding tackle in the box was always a red at this level. Well, since I’ve been watching from the late 80s.
I suggest you watch Don Revie's Leeds squad from 1971 or Johnny Giles' promotion winning West Brom side from 1976.
Heh. Yeah before my time sadly. But have seen the Brian Clough views on that Leeds side. “You won them all by cheating”.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
The fundamentals of his approval ratings are improving.
I appreciate you are working through the grief reaction, and currently in the bargaining phase, so I hope it consoles you.
Err, no. Strangely I'm actually far more relaxed than I thought I'd be.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?
Tories. The Tories! The Tories. The Tories.The Tories! The TORIES! THE Tories. THE TORIES. *The Tories* The. Tories. TORIES. Tories. Tories. THE TORIES. *THE TORRRIIEESS!!*
It's all you have.
Why don't you turn on ITV and watch Scotland get utterly spanked by Germany? You'll feel much better.
Because I'm not one of the anti-Scots on here?
I like Scotland, and the Scots, and am a Unionist.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Not in most polls.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.
But you know I'm right.
My only worry is that my betting position is best on Con 26%+ and 150+ seats.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.
It's possible. But I'm still not sure about Reform's real appeal.
Worth looking back to 2015; UKIP polling was generally even higher than Reform now - multiple VIs at 20+% IIRC - but still only managed 12.6% in the actual vote.
While that may now be taken into account in methodologies, pricing in a degree of apathy/skittishness, I still think Reform will significantly underperform their VI polling at the actual vote.
Was it that high? It’s amazing what you forget. Were we all talking up ukip seats (in addition to Carswell)? Actually, even he lost didn’t he?
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
The fundamentals of his approval ratings are improving.
I appreciate you are working through the grief reaction, and currently in the bargaining phase, so I hope it consoles you.
Err, no. Strangely I'm actually far more relaxed than I thought I'd be.
I will enjoy being right on this though.
So nearly at the acceptance phase, which is where the bargaining leads. You are making good progress grasshopper.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
The fundamentals of his approval ratings are improving.
I appreciate you are working through the grief reaction, and currently in the bargaining phase, so I hope it consoles you.
Err, no. Strangely I'm actually far more relaxed than I thought I'd be.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
@Richard_Tyndall got there before me but this is the thing. There is huge continuity between the administrations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak. They are not different administrations. It’s a convenient fiction that attempts to wipe the slate clean.
There was an actual break in administration and ideology between Cameron and Johnson, with May the transitional PM, such that you could argue they really were different parties. And Johnson won an election with the mandate that brings. But since then it’s just been court intrigue within a single party of government that needs to be judged on the totality of its term of office, not just the time since November 2022.
Ok it’s an absolutely fair point. I would ask however, do you think that a Treasury Sec or even a Chancellor can act independently of their boss’ will, ie the PM? They can disagree but cabinet responsibility and hierarchy - same for any party.
Let’s think of any organisation. You are COO and the CEO is a douche. You work for him and do what you need to do as well as you can but ultimately it’s the CEO who decides what happens and what doesn’t, the culture, actions etc.
When you get a surprise promotion to CEO from COO because the CEO was busted with hookers and coke and you find you need to rebuild elements of the company are you then running the same company or are you transitioning the company to what you think will work? It can’t happen overnight but it’s no longer the same company even if the changes take time to filter through.
Can you be realistically blamed for the decisions of the previous CEO? He was the boss and even if you disagreed behind closed doors his decisions were final. It’s completely unrealistic to think that it’s any other way.
Yes. We have a system of Cabinet Government and ministerial responsibility. If Sunak didn't agree with what was being done he could and should have resigned.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?
Tories. The Tories! The Tories. The Tories.The Tories! The TORIES! THE Tories. THE TORIES. *The Tories* The. Tories. TORIES. Tories. Tories. THE TORIES. *THE TORRRIIEESS!!*
It's all you have.
Why don't you turn on ITV and watch Scotland get utterly spanked by Germany? You'll feel much better.
Because I'm not one of the anti-Scots on here?
I like Scotland, and the Scots, and am a Unionist.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
I'm not sure the current polls are the evidence for what you say, though I agree with it for other reasons. I just can't see how he remains popular in the face of the mess he is inheriting. Wherever we look money is needed, yet there is widespread belief tax is already too high.
If he can escape the financial trap of the next couple of years without blowing his popularity he deserves more accolades than Houdini.
I think the key for Starmer is to convince the public that things are going in the right direction in four years time, and that the alternatives would be worse. But even if both those things are true, I suspect the public won't want to be convinced, as there will be money trees and scapegoats on offer from both left and right.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
It’s all he has left to console himself: the hope that the Labour Government will fail spectacularly and in record quick time.
Hmm, maybe, but have you considered I might also be right?
Look at recent polling: Labour's lead is as soft as babyfood (as @Leon said), entirely fuelled by uniting temporarily as an ejection mechanism for the existing administration and could rapidly splinter to Reform, Greens, the LDs and the Conservatives once in office.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
It’s all he has left to console himself: the hope that the Labour Government will fail spectacularly and in record quick time.
Hmm, maybe, but have you considered I might also be right?
Look at recent polling: Labour's lead is as soft as babyfood (as @Leon said), entirely fuelled by uniting temporarily as an ejection mechanism for the existing administration and could rapidly splinter to Reform, Greens, the LDs and the Conservatives once in office.
Politically, disillusion with Labour while the right tears itself apart should suit the LibDems. The country, not so much.
This might be old news to some, apologies, but my colleagues and I discovered a game today that I think Casino and Leon might enjoy: vegan alternatives to popular meat-associated idioms.
So...
'Flogging a dead horse' becomes 'Feeding a fed horse'. 'Killing two birds with one stone' becomes 'Feeding two birds with one scone', and my personal favourite: 'Taking the bull by the horns' becomes 'taking the flower by the thorns'.
tbh we all felt the examples were a bit tame, and I immediately thought of PB. I'm sure we can make some good suggestions. Vegan-friendly idioms please. A slice of freshly grilled venison to the best one.
Just had a bit of Youtube music on in the background, a mediaeval tune called Merrie Summer ilast came up on the playlist...
I just casually saw a comment from @ReformUk, logo and all; "It is imperative that British culture and history be preserved, especially in these times".
Except the song was being sung by a Polish mediaeval group and was recorded in a church in Gdynia.
Its not just the stupid racism that makes these people such twats. Its the stupid stupid.
Yes, the kind of people who think Westminster Cathedral is a mosque.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
I'm not sure the current polls are the evidence for what you say, though I agree with it for other reasons. I just can't see how he remains popular in the face of the mess he is inheriting. Wherever we look money is needed, yet there is widespread belief tax is already too high.
If he can escape the financial trap of the next couple of years without blowing his popularity he deserves more accolades than Houdini.
I think the key for Starmer is to convince the public that things are going in the right direction in four years time, and that the alternatives would be worse. But even if both those things are true, I suspect the public won't want to be convinced, as there will be money trees and scapegoats on offer from both left and right.
With the caveat that we all thought Cameron had a hospital pass in 2010. I think what he went on to do was piss poor, but thanks to Osborne they managed to make welfare cuts “feel” like a “we’re all in it together” mission to enough voters to win in 2015. Though the Scots Nats, and the referendum promise, helped.
Just had a bit of Youtube music on in the background, a mediaeval tune called Merrie Summer ilast came up on the playlist...
I just casually saw a comment from @ReformUk, logo and all; "It is imperative that British culture and history be preserved, especially in these times".
Except the song was being sung by a Polish mediaeval group and was recorded in a church in Gdynia.
Its not just the stupid racism that makes these people such twats. Its the stupid stupid.
Have you verified that none of the members of the group support PiS? Perhaps they deserve your condemnation too.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
It’s all he has left to console himself: the hope that the Labour Government will fail spectacularly and in record quick time.
Hmm, maybe, but have you considered I might also be right?
Look at recent polling: Labour's lead is as soft as babyfood (as @Leon said), entirely fuelled by uniting temporarily as an ejection mechanism for the existing administration and could rapidly splinter to Reform, Greens, the LDs and the Conservatives once in office.
For what it’s worth, on balance I agree with you. We might be wrong, but I don’t see Starmer “doing a Cameron” and playing austerity cards well. It’s harder for Labour.
The worst thing about being a candidate in a GE is to a large degree no matter how good you are and if you’re an incumbent how hard you’ve worked for your consistency your chances are really outside of your control. It must be very frustrating.
The Tories could end up bearing the brunt of a perfect storm , hated by the vast majority who voted Remain , not trusted by those who voted for Brexit and the leveling up broken promises sold to the Red Wall .
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Not in most polls.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.
But you know I'm right.
My only worry is that my betting position is best on Con 26%+ and 150+ seats.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.
It's possible. But I'm still not sure about Reform's real appeal.
Worth looking back to 2015; UKIP polling was generally even higher than Reform now - multiple VIs at 20+% IIRC - but still only managed 12.6% in the actual vote.
While that may now be taken into account in methodologies, pricing in a degree of apathy/skittishness, I still think Reform will significantly underperform their VI polling at the actual vote.
Was it that high? It’s amazing what you forget. Were we all talking up ukip seats (in addition to Carswell)? Actually, even he lost didn’t he?
No it wasn't. According to the wikipedia page on GE polling ahed of the 2015 election the highest UKIP polling was 18%, three times after the dissolution with the last being on 24th/25th April.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.
I agree, but letter of the law is studs on ankle red card. Shin pads and no cards back in our day!
Two footed sliding tackle in the box was always a red at this level. Well, since I’ve been watching from the late 80s.
I suggest you watch Don Revie's Leeds squad from 1971 or Johnny Giles' promotion winning West Brom side from 1976.
Heh. Yeah before my time sadly. But have seen the Brian Clough views on that Leeds side. “You won them all by cheating”.
They really did.
Big Jack, Bremner, Norman Hunter, Johnny Giles were all absolutely dirty barsteward, but then Leeds weren't alone, Bryan Kidd, Alan Ball, Francis Lee, Nobby Styles were very dirty too.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
I don't accept Truss was obviously worse.
She mucked up with the mini budget but she corrected course by appointing Hunt who is doing a good job. By then her fate was sealed though.
Sunak has just made things worse since and there's good reason he's now polling worse than Truss's lowest point.
Truss had an open and welcoming field. She reversed the Tory car out of the garage backwards, through a museum wall, and parked outside a donut shop. She'll never be equalled for stupidity (And I don't just mean in PMs, I mean generally).
However there have been other poor PMs - the Earl of Jute conceded far more to the French than conscionable.
I don't think he's the worst, perhaps not even the second worst, but he's right down at the bottom of the list.
His obvious first brush quality as a person seems to be smugness (I've not met him, so just from tv etc). He's having a sharp lesson.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
That'll be "no, there aren't any data showing Labour down seven points in seven days", then.
It was posted on here earlier today or yesterday. No, I can't be arsed finding it. You can if you like.
You know I'm right. Hence the twitchy pedantry that avoids the substantive point.
Conclusion: you suspect I might be right and want to rapidly shut it down.
If you are right, that's interesting and important. But only if it's true.
Which is why I went to have a look... and I don't see any sign that it is true. If you've got something, great, bring it on. But I'm sure you respect us all enough to know that "it was posted here sometime, but I can't be bothered to find it" doesn't cut the mustard.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
The fundamentals of his approval ratings are improving.
I appreciate you are working through the grief reaction, and currently in the bargaining phase, so I hope it consoles you.
Err, no. Strangely I'm actually far more relaxed than I thought I'd be.
I will enjoy being right on this though.
So nearly at the acceptance phase, which is where the bargaining leads. You are making good progress grasshopper.
Via depression of course. (Although Kubler-Ross isn't necessarily always linear).
This might be old news to some, apologies, but my colleagues and I discovered a game today that I think Casino and Leon might enjoy: vegan alternatives to popular meat-associated idioms.
So...
'Flogging a dead horse' becomes 'Feeding a fed horse'. 'Killing two birds with one stone' becomes 'Feeding two birds with one scone', and my personal favourite: 'Taking the bull by the horns' becomes 'taking the flower by the thorns'.
tbh we all felt the examples were a bit tame, and I immediately thought of PB. I'm sure we can make some good suggestions. Vegan-friendly idioms please. A slice of freshly grilled venison to the best one.
This might be old news to some, apologies, but my colleagues and I discovered a game today that I think Casino and Leon might enjoy: vegan alternatives to popular meat-associated idioms.
So...
'Flogging a dead horse' becomes 'Feeding a fed horse'. 'Killing two birds with one stone' becomes 'Feeding two birds with one scone', and my personal favourite: 'Taking the bull by the horns' becomes 'taking the flower by the thorns'.
tbh we all felt the examples were a bit tame, and I immediately thought of PB. I'm sure we can make some good suggestions. Vegan-friendly idioms please. A slice of freshly grilled venison to the best one.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
The fundamentals of his approval ratings are improving.
I appreciate you are working through the grief reaction, and currently in the bargaining phase, so I hope it consoles you.
Err, no. Strangely I'm actually far more relaxed than I thought I'd be.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Not in most polls.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.
But you know I'm right.
My only worry is that my betting position is best on Con 26%+ and 150+ seats.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.
It's possible. But I'm still not sure about Reform's real appeal.
Worth looking back to 2015; UKIP polling was generally even higher than Reform now - multiple VIs at 20+% IIRC - but still only managed 12.6% in the actual vote.
While that may now be taken into account in methodologies, pricing in a degree of apathy/skittishness, I still think Reform will significantly underperform their VI polling at the actual vote.
Me too. Probably in the same range, and I would think pushing the Tories above 20%.
One reason that Lab did so well in 2017 was that a lot of Lab candidates distanced themselves from Corbyn and the national campaign. It might work for some Tory MPs too, particularly those who haven't ignored the constituents in their "safe seats" for years.
- I think it’s rather sad that the only way you can deal with the present is to imagine / hope for a future that is so uncertain
- History doesn’t support your view that a (let’s say) 150 seat majority can be overturned in one term. So, realistically, if (IF) Labour take a 150+ seat maj then will be in power for 9-10 years minimum
- They, and the country, start from such a low base (as does your party) that I think you are detaching yourself from the reality of what is taking place as a psychological device. It’s a flight reaction.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
It’s all he has left to console himself: the hope that the Labour Government will fail spectacularly and in record quick time.
Hmm, maybe, but have you considered I might also be right?
Look at recent polling: Labour's lead is as soft as babyfood (as @Leon said), entirely fuelled by uniting temporarily as an ejection mechanism for the existing administration and could rapidly splinter to Reform, Greens, the LDs and the Conservatives once in office.
How much more do Labour have to fall for Reform to start taking seats that Starmer has already banked?
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28% Lab 30% Green 10% Reform 10% LDs 14% SNP 5% Plaid 1% Others 2%
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.
It's just a prediction. But it's one that has a bit more credence than the "10-15 years, minimum!" we hear mindlessly echoed on here daily when he's already slipped into the 30s for the first time this year in as many days, before he's even entered Downing Street.
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
I'm not sure the current polls are the evidence for what you say, though I agree with it for other reasons. I just can't see how he remains popular in the face of the mess he is inheriting. Wherever we look money is needed, yet there is widespread belief tax is already too high.
If he can escape the financial trap of the next couple of years without blowing his popularity he deserves more accolades than Houdini.
I think the key for Starmer is to convince the public that things are going in the right direction in four years time, and that the alternatives would be worse. But even if both those things are true, I suspect the public won't want to be convinced, as there will be money trees and scapegoats on offer from both left and right.
With the caveat that we all thought Cameron had a hospital pass in 2010. I think what he went on to do was piss poor, but thanks to Osborne they managed to make welfare cuts “feel” like a “we’re all in it together” mission to enough voters to win in 2015. Though the Scots Nats, and the referendum promise, helped.
As you say just after this, I don't think Labour are able to play that card in the same way Cameron could. Rightly, I think, the expectation on a Labour government is to repair public services over the next few years. If they don't, they'll bleed to the Greens I think.
You can see that Starmer already sees this, which is why he keeps going on about a 10 year plan for renewal. Whether he can make that stick could well determine the next election (barring unexpected events, and we haven't had many of those recently have we?)
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Not in most polls.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.
But you know I'm right.
My only worry is that my betting position is best on Con 26%+ and 150+ seats.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.
It's possible. But I'm still not sure about Reform's real appeal.
Worth looking back to 2015; UKIP polling was generally even higher than Reform now - multiple VIs at 20+% IIRC - but still only managed 12.6% in the actual vote.
While that may now be taken into account in methodologies, pricing in a degree of apathy/skittishness, I still think Reform will significantly underperform their VI polling at the actual vote.
Was it that high? It’s amazing what you forget. Were we all talking up ukip seats (in addition to Carswell)? Actually, even he lost didn’t he?
No it wasn't. According to the wikipedia page on GE polling ahed of the 2015 election the highest UKIP polling was 18%, three times after the dissolution with the last being on 24th/25th April.
Thanks. It felt off. As I recall, the fact of a Tory popular vote win wasn’t the shock, it was the efficiency with which they defenestrated the LibDems and took down the assumed LibLab deal.
But I do recall seeing the the Exit Poll, being somewhat shocked, and coming on here to make some dosh.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
It’s all he has left to console himself: the hope that the Labour Government will fail spectacularly and in record quick time.
Hmm, maybe, but have you considered I might also be right?
Look at recent polling: Labour's lead is as soft as babyfood (as @Leon said), entirely fuelled by uniting temporarily as an ejection mechanism for the existing administration and could rapidly splinter to Reform, Greens, the LDs and the Conservatives once in office.
For what it’s worth, on balance I agree with you. We might be wrong, but I don’t see Starmer “doing a Cameron” and playing austerity cards well. It’s harder for Labour.
Although they could play tax rises as an alternative.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
It’s all he has left to console himself: the hope that the Labour Government will fail spectacularly and in record quick time.
Hmm, maybe, but have you considered I might also be right?
Look at recent polling: Labour's lead is as soft as babyfood (as @Leon said), entirely fuelled by uniting temporarily as an ejection mechanism for the existing administration and could rapidly splinter to Reform, Greens, the LDs and the Conservatives once in office.
How much more do Labour have to fall for Reform to start taking seats that Starmer has already banked?
Quite some way. With the possible exception of Rotherham.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
He got the job as CoE because he was willing to do whatever he was told, when Javid was not, and I suspect he has continued to do as he is told as PM.
I stand resolutely by my Head Boy theory. Position of no real power whatsoever which you get neither by birth like KCIII not mystically like the Dalai Lama but by being sycophantic but not too overtly so to those with real authority. He sucked up to Johnson, he is still sucking up to authoritarian grownups with taxes on wine and bans on cigarettes and so on. A nebbish through and through.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
It’s all he has left to console himself: the hope that the Labour Government will fail spectacularly and in record quick time.
Hmm, maybe, but have you considered I might also be right?
Look at recent polling: Labour's lead is as soft as babyfood (as @Leon said), entirely fuelled by uniting temporarily as an ejection mechanism for the existing administration and could rapidly splinter to Reform, Greens, the LDs and the Conservatives once in office.
How much more do Labour have to fall for Reform to start taking seats that Starmer has already banked?
If Nigey builds up a head of steam the Red Wall could fall like Dominoes. Then, Nigel's your uncle, Nigel is PM.
No, I'm getting ahead of myself there. I still think the reality is 8 out of 8 attempts and losses for Nige, this GE.
I tend to agree with Casino that there's good reason to suspect Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
Britain has severe problems, but the public have no appetite for hard choices. Difficult things need to be done, but Starmer's approach is timid and betrays a lack of confidence. He hasn't done any of the work to prepare the public for difficult times that Cameron and Osborne did in advance of the 2010GE.
It's very easy to see Starmer and the Labour government becoming deeply unpopular very quickly. The difficult bit is, who do the voters turn to next?
There are lots of reasons to doubt a credible opposition emerging, but Starmer is showing that simply not being the incumbent government can sometimes be enough.
But, er, maybe Starmer will surprise on the upside?
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Not in most polls.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.
But you know I'm right.
My only worry is that my betting position is best on Con 26%+ and 150+ seats.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.
It's possible. But I'm still not sure about Reform's real appeal.
Worth looking back to 2015; UKIP polling was generally even higher than Reform now - multiple VIs at 20+% IIRC - but still only managed 12.6% in the actual vote.
While that may now be taken into account in methodologies, pricing in a degree of apathy/skittishness, I still think Reform will significantly underperform their VI polling at the actual vote.
Was it that high? It’s amazing what you forget. Were we all talking up ukip seats (in addition to Carswell)? Actually, even he lost didn’t he?
I’ve gone back and looked and I didn’t recall correctly - it wasn’t that high, though the polling is actually very similar to what Reform are getting now at the same stage (interestingly they tailed off in the week before the vote).
Carswell won, in fact - though of course he ended up standing as an independent at the next one.
I don’t remember what the state of commentary re ukip was on here, though given that both the main parties were polling mid-30s it lacked the collapse-and-crossover narrative we have this time.
- I think it’s rather sad that the only way you can deal with the present is to imagine / hope for a future that is so uncertain
- History doesn’t support your view that a (let’s say) 150 seat majority can be overturned in one term. So, realistically, if (IF) Labour take a 150+ seat maj then will be in power for 9-10 years minimum
- They, and the country, start from such a low base (as does your party) that I think you are detaching yourself from the reality of what is taking place as a psychological device. It’s a flight reaction.
Do you not see how quoting historical precedents is useful, but not a slam dunk given the distant lack of precedented times since 2015?
Things are more in flux.
Consider that on these boundaries you are currently watching an adjusted Tory majority of over 100 completely reversed.
- I think it’s rather sad that the only way you can deal with the present is to imagine / hope for a future that is so uncertain
- History doesn’t support your view that a (let’s say) 150 seat majority can be overturned in one term. So, realistically, if (IF) Labour take a 150+ seat maj then will be in power for 9-10 years minimum
- They, and the country, start from such a low base (as does your party) that I think you are detaching yourself from the reality of what is taking place as a psychological device. It’s a flight reaction.
History also says that an 80-seat majority can't be overturned in one go. If people are fed up then party loyalty is going to drop.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
Yet Starmer's ratings have gone up recently. I think BeyondTopline may well be right that Labour's decrease in polling is largely being driven by Lab to LD tactical voters rather than dissatisfaction with Labour. A similar thing happened in 97.
It’s all he has left to console himself: the hope that the Labour Government will fail spectacularly and in record quick time.
No idea what’s got into him. Believe me when I tell you he is an absolute gent, one of the good guys. The recent experience is not typical of him and he’ll be back at some point.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Not in most polls.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.
But you know I'm right.
My only worry is that my betting position is best on Con 26%+ and 150+ seats.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.
It's possible. But I'm still not sure about Reform's real appeal.
Worth looking back to 2015; UKIP polling was generally even higher than Reform now - multiple VIs at 20+% IIRC - but still only managed 12.6% in the actual vote.
While that may now be taken into account in methodologies, pricing in a degree of apathy/skittishness, I still think Reform will significantly underperform their VI polling at the actual vote.
Was it that high? It’s amazing what you forget. Were we all talking up ukip seats (in addition to Carswell)? Actually, even he lost didn’t he?
I’ve gone back and looked and I didn’t recall correctly - it wasn’t that high, though the polling is actually very similar to what Reform are getting now at the same stage (interestingly they tailed off in the week before the vote).
Carswell won, in fact - though of course he ended up standing as an independent at the next one.
I don’t remember what the state of commentary re ukip was on here, though given that both the main parties were polling mid-30s it lacked the collapse-and-crossover narrative we have this time.
No Carswell didn't stand as an Independent in 2017. He didn't stand at all.
Just had a bit of Youtube music on in the background, a mediaeval tune called Merrie Summer ilast came up on the playlist...
I just casually saw a comment from @ReformUk, logo and all; "It is imperative that British culture and history be preserved, especially in these times".
Except the song was being sung by a Polish mediaeval group and was recorded in a church in Gdynia.
Its not just the stupid racism that makes these people such twats. Its the stupid stupid.
If you are still tuned into the YouTube and want something more modern and less political may I recommend a song I’ve fallen in love with by a chap called SYML called Believer. I’m afraid I don’t know his views on small boats or tax rates but he’s good and the song is a beauty.
This might be old news to some, apologies, but my colleagues and I discovered a game today that I think Casino and Leon might enjoy: vegan alternatives to popular meat-associated idioms.
So...
'Flogging a dead horse' becomes 'Feeding a fed horse'. 'Killing two birds with one stone' becomes 'Feeding two birds with one scone', and my personal favourite: 'Taking the bull by the horns' becomes 'taking the flower by the thorns'.
tbh we all felt the examples were a bit tame, and I immediately thought of PB. I'm sure we can make some good suggestions. Vegan-friendly idioms please. A slice of freshly grilled venison to the best one.
Comments
I might need to leave the restaurant early, in that case.
The war, like many others was lost politically even before the military defeats.
> Cancel the important bits of national renewal project, HS2.
> Fight a car centric culture war from a v-close byelection.
> Superficial moves on smoking, maths for all, banning killer cyclists.
> Rwanda.
> Stopping boats.
> Asset stripping councils.
> Shunting all the big fiscal decisions to 2025.
> Call an election in July.
> National service
> Bifurcated taxation.
He's certainly driven stuff. Just the stuff is pretty poor.
Heard that CCHQ are still confident that Scotland can win this
Look at the fundamentals: both for him, personally, and what's driving highly fluid voter sentiment across all parties.
Let’s think of any organisation. You are COO and the CEO is a douche. You work for him and do what you need to do as well as you can but ultimately it’s the CEO who decides what happens and what doesn’t, the culture, actions etc.
When you get a surprise promotion to CEO from COO because the CEO was busted with hookers and coke and you find you need to rebuild elements of the company are you then running the same company or are you transitioning the company to what you think will work? It can’t happen overnight but it’s no longer the same company even if the changes take time to filter through.
Can you be realistically blamed for the decisions of the previous CEO? He was the boss and even if you disagreed behind closed doors his decisions were final. It’s completely unrealistic to think that it’s any other way.
> Housing
Hunt has done a good job with NI, but by doing the polar opposite of what Sunak did as Chancellor!!!
Absolutely atrocious PM.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
I just casually saw a comment from @ReformUk, logo and all; "It is imperative that British culture and history be preserved, especially in these times".
Except the song was being sung by a Polish mediaeval group and was recorded in a church in Gdynia.
Its not just the stupid racism that makes these people such twats. Its the stupid stupid.
The Tories!
The Tories. The Tories.The Tories!
The TORIES!
THE Tories.
THE TORIES.
*The Tories*
The.
Tories.
TORIES. Tories. Tories.
THE TORIES.
*THE TORRRIIEESS!!*
It's all you have.
On housing, on spending, on taxation, on national service his record is appalling. Worse than his predecessors.
While that may now be taken into account in methodologies, pricing in a degree of apathy/skittishness, I still think Reform will significantly underperform their VI polling at the actual vote.
I’m already having to get by with about a quarter of the number of volunteers who helped us campaign locally in 2019. Even a lot of people who are willing to deliver leaflets aren’t prepared to knock on doors and canvass because they can see the polls and the national atmosphere. As it happens, people we’ve spoken to on the doorstep are a lot politer than you might think.
But the amount of time I’m having to spend cajoling traditional Conservative voters to vote for us on July 4 is worrying. Sometimes it’s 15-minute conversations trying to get them off Reform. My pitch is to make it really clear to them that this is a vote for me – not Rishi. Sadly, what used to just be indifference and apathy towards him seems to have hardened. He has become a drag.
One couple I canvassed yesterday were pretty typical of older, skilled working-class voters in my constituency. They were previously Conservative voters but think Rishi is out of touch and doesn’t get the lives of ordinary people. They felt it was time to change and they wanted a Labour government. They quite like Keir Starmer.
In this case, they’d decided that a Labour government would get voted in regardless of what happens here, so they decided to vote for me because they like me locally and don’t think there’s any risk that they’ll help to elect us as a government nationally.
A lot of us are in utter despair now, particularly after the publication of an underwhelming manifesto. The risk of a super-majority Labour Party is grave but we’re walking into the abyss.
Tellingly, the Conservative MPs’ Whatsapp group is eerily quiet – hardly anyone is messaging in it. Yesterday Damian Green put a message out about canvassing. But no one replied.
There was just tumbleweed.
But that is hardly surprising. It feels like we’re being destroyed by poor political leadership and the behaviour of those around Rishi.
The Tories should start going after Reform and stop wasting their time on these pathetic imaginary Labour tax rises .
She mucked up with the mini budget but she corrected course by appointing Hunt who is doing a good job. By then her fate was sealed though.
Sunak has just made things worse since and there's good reason he's now polling worse than Truss's lowest point.
So...
'Flogging a dead horse' becomes 'Feeding a fed horse'.
'Killing two birds with one stone' becomes 'Feeding two birds with one scone', and my personal favourite: 'Taking the bull by the horns' becomes 'taking the flower by the thorns'.
(All here: https://thenorthernquota.org/killing-two-birds-one-stone-english-language-vegan-friendly/)
tbh we all felt the examples were a bit tame, and I immediately thought of PB. I'm sure we can make some good suggestions. Vegan-friendly idioms please. A slice of freshly grilled venison to the best one.
Brexit, the great unmentionable of this election, is really what has done for the Tories. It’s infuriated both those who voted to remain, who see it as a colossal self-inflicted disaster, and those who voted leave, who think they were told a pack of lies. Result: annihilation.
I appreciate you are working through the grief reaction, and currently in the bargaining phase, so I hope it consoles you.
Ist genug
Satis est
Etc
"If the Conservative party loses the election in July, which of their prime ministers since 2010 do you think will be most responsible?"
For me that is clearly Sunak.
You know I'm right. Hence the twitchy pedantry that avoids the substantive point.
Conclusion: you suspect I might be right and want to rapidly shut it down.
It’s all he has left to console himself: the hope that the Labour Government will fail spectacularly and in record quick time.
I will enjoy being right on this though.
I like Scotland, and the Scots, and am a Unionist.
If he can escape the financial trap of the next couple of years without blowing his popularity he deserves more accolades than Houdini.
I think the key for Starmer is to convince the public that things are going in the right direction in four years time, and that the alternatives would be worse. But even if both those things are true, I suspect the public won't want to be convinced, as there will be money trees and scapegoats on offer from both left and right.
Look at recent polling: Labour's lead is as soft as babyfood (as @Leon said), entirely fuelled by uniting temporarily as an ejection mechanism for the existing administration and could rapidly splinter to Reform, Greens, the LDs and the Conservatives once in office.
The Tories could end up bearing the brunt of a perfect storm , hated by the vast majority who voted Remain , not trusted by those who voted for Brexit and the leveling up broken promises sold to the Red Wall .
In the end they got 12.9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election.
Edit. And no, Carswell won again and then stood dopwn in 2017 after the Referendum win.
Big Jack, Bremner, Norman Hunter, Johnny Giles were all absolutely dirty barsteward, but then Leeds weren't alone, Bryan Kidd, Alan Ball, Francis Lee, Nobby Styles were very dirty too.
However there have been other poor PMs - the Earl of Jute conceded far more to the French than conscionable.
I don't think he's the worst, perhaps not even the second worst, but he's right down at the bottom of the list.
His obvious first brush quality as a person seems to be smugness (I've not met him, so just from tv etc). He's having a sharp lesson.
Which is why I went to have a look... and I don't see any sign that it is true. If you've got something, great, bring it on. But I'm sure you respect us all enough to know that "it was posted here sometime, but I can't be bothered to find it" doesn't cut the mustard.
(Although Kubler-Ross isn't necessarily always linear).
Greens - 20/1
Reform - 5/1
PC- 3/1
SNP - 10/1
Con - Evens (fav) ...
One reason that Lab did so well in 2017 was that a lot of Lab candidates distanced themselves from Corbyn and the national campaign. It might work for some Tory MPs too, particularly those who haven't ignored the constituents in their "safe seats" for years.
- I think it’s rather sad that the only way you can deal with the present is to imagine / hope for a future that is so uncertain
- History doesn’t support your view that a (let’s say) 150 seat majority can be overturned in one term. So, realistically, if (IF) Labour take a 150+ seat maj then will be in power for 9-10 years minimum
- They, and the country, start from such a low base (as does your party) that I think you are detaching yourself from the reality of what is taking place as a psychological device. It’s a flight reaction.
Leon wrong again
Wait, offside!
https://x.com/JoshWalkos/status/1801678614758400509
You can see that Starmer already sees this, which is why he keeps going on about a 10 year plan for renewal. Whether he can make that stick could well determine the next election (barring unexpected events, and we haven't had many of those recently have we?)
But I do recall seeing the the Exit Poll, being somewhat shocked, and coming on here to make some dosh.
posted at 9.06pm
With the possible exception of Rotherham.
No, I'm getting ahead of myself there. I still think the reality is 8 out of 8 attempts and losses for Nige, this GE.
Britain has severe problems, but the public have no appetite for hard choices. Difficult things need to be done, but Starmer's approach is timid and betrays a lack of confidence. He hasn't done any of the work to prepare the public for difficult times that Cameron and Osborne did in advance of the 2010GE.
It's very easy to see Starmer and the Labour government becoming deeply unpopular very quickly. The difficult bit is, who do the voters turn to next?
There are lots of reasons to doubt a credible opposition emerging, but Starmer is showing that simply not being the incumbent government can sometimes be enough.
But, er, maybe Starmer will surprise on the upside?
Carswell won, in fact - though of course he ended up standing as an independent at the next one.
I don’t remember what the state of commentary re ukip was on here, though given that both the main parties were polling mid-30s it lacked the collapse-and-crossover narrative we have this time.
Things are more in flux.
Consider that on these boundaries you are currently watching an adjusted Tory majority of over 100 completely reversed.
https://youtu.be/VnT7pT6zCcA?si=7DiO_1I-wbCcmFj_
https://youtu.be/5tVDDxcmxak?si=UgsFTt-4F0-1irFH