one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Rishi continues on that spectrum between tone deaf and utterly shameful:
I asked Sunak if he could assure Zelensky that 🇬🇧 will support 🇺🇦 no matter what the election result, he replied: "I can only assure him of what I would do if I were prime minister." Suggested Labour's failure to commit to a timetable on defence spending creates uncertainty.
That’s a true statement, but not the right answer.
The right answer is that both himself and his main opponent are on the same page when it comes to Ukraine, and he is sure that Mr Starmer will honour his promises if the election were to go his way.
I just don’t think Sunak understands foreign affairs or diplomacy. He’s never shown an interest in it, and he doesn’t have meaningful experience.
What you write above would be a no brainer for politicians attuned to diplomacy. I just don’t think he gets it. Hence D-Day.
Yes, he has a total blind spot when it comes to history and international affairs. Why should I spend the day just shaking hands with people when I could be looking at my spreadsheets?
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Tories will be ok with that if they hold up in the blue wall more, the red wall is gone, gone, gone
"An SSFA spokesman said: “We were slightly disappointed in the scoreline and we need to do more to convert our chances. A 4-1 victory over Scotland should not give our next opponents a false sense of security.”
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Tories will be ok with that if they hold up in the blue wall more, the red wall is gone, gone, gone
Would also tell us something about the underlying realignment for next time and the time after.
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Tories will be ok with that if they hold up in the blue wall more, the red wall is gone, gone, gone
Would also tell us something about the underlying realignment for next time and the time after.
Indeed. Labour may struggle to fight a three plus front war in future
If the Tories do merge/get swallowed by Reform I suppose you could get the Conservative name back. The wonderfully paradoxical Conservative Reform Party?
Analysis - John Curtis, Steve Fisher, Jouni Kuda, Jon Mellon, Rob Ford, Patrick English, Albert Ward
Around 24,000 respondents in 130 polling stations
Same polling stations as in 2019
Analyse change in party vote share in each location
Estimate regression models based on constituency characteristics
Apply model to all constituencies to obtain predicted vote share for each constituency
Convert predicted vote share into estimated probability party wins each constituency
Exit poll prediction is sum of estimated probabilities for each constituency
I would have thought that the points of uncertainty would be
Are the polling stations representative? Given the significant change in the political world, the polling stations may not be as useful in a normal election with small changes. If there are uniform changes throughout the UK it may not matter, but if the changes are localised and variable it makes it more difficult. This suggests that there may be greater challenges predicting the smaller parties.
Is the regression model fit for purpose?
They identify the change in constituencies, and changes in polling stations as new issues.
The methodology is proven and mostly unchanged as is the team.
They would hope to have a good coverage of the different characteristics along which change sin vote might vary - so a good geographical spread, a good spread of income, job mix, age, education, etc.
So the main risk would be if there was an axis along which vote changes were markedly different, that they hadn't sampled, or didn't have in their regression model. Maybe if, somehow, they'd only sampled areas that still mostly got their news from the BBC, and so missed areas with more people who got their news from youtube. (But I don't see how that would happen).
Obvs, they're not going to have the coverage to pick up local effects due to particularly good candidates, or independent campaigns, so they're not going to provide a great steer on how well the Ashfield Independents will do.
The biggest risk, as with normal opinion polls, is a non-response bias. if, say, 10% of the people they asked to participate refused to do so, and those were mostly Reform voters who distrusted the exit poll as part of "them", then that would skew the results.
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Tories will be ok with that if they hold up in the blue wall more, the red wall is gone, gone, gone
Would also tell us something about the underlying realignment for next time and the time after.
Indeed. Labour may struggle to fight a three plus front war in future
It potentially gives Reform the regional concentration you need under FPTP to make progress. See Lib Dems, SNP and Plaid.
Most unpopular commitment in the various manifestos is Labour's commitment to votes at 16. Something I find utterly bizarre, not just because I live in a country where votes start at 16 and is completely uncontroversial. But people elsewhere are very negative.
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Tories will be ok with that if they hold up in the blue wall more, the red wall is gone, gone, gone
Would also tell us something about the underlying realignment for next time and the time after.
Indeed. Labour may struggle to fight a three plus front war in future
It potentially gives Reform the regional concentration you need under FPTP to make progress. See Lib Dems, SNP and Plaid.
Yes, it also pushes the Tories into the Midlands and South plus rural Yorkshire. What a fascinating election. Will make projections into 2029 very tricky!
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Tories will be ok with that if they hold up in the blue wall more, the red wall is gone, gone, gone
Would also tell us something about the underlying realignment for next time and the time after.
Indeed. Labour may struggle to fight a three plus front war in future
Actually, here’s a thought. What if Reform/Tories don’t formally merge so much as end up in different geographies like the CDU/CSU in Germany or Liberals/Nats in Australia? They then form a less formal alliance.
Cameroons in the SW and the Home Counties. Farage in Essex and the red wall.
Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.
What was the exit poll for Brexit ref? Surely there was one? Or were they all private??
I don't believe so - because it was a one-off. They couldn't compare with past EU referendum patterns and so could not hope for a reliable result
Why do the Scottish football fans sing flower of Scotland in a painfully higher pitch than the rugby fans?
Doesn't really work anyway except at Murrayfield or Twickenham.
It was just weirdly high pitched. Now I’m no fan of flower of Scotland because of too many losses I’ve had to watch to Scotland in the Six Nations but it’s a fine song that just rises above a dirge at The rugby by virtue of being sung by lots of people but that was just unpleasant.
Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
Yes indeed.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
+1
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.
You ‘ad ‘trolley? Luuuuuxuuuuuury!
{pry bars open a double case of magnums of Chateau de Chassilier}
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Tories will be ok with that if they hold up in the blue wall more, the red wall is gone, gone, gone
Would also tell us something about the underlying realignment for next time and the time after.
Indeed. Labour may struggle to fight a three plus front war in future
Actually, here’s a thought. What if Reform/Tories don’t formally merge so much as end up in different geographies like the CDU/CSU in Germany or Liberals/Nats in Australia? They then form a less formal alliance.
Cameroons in the SW and the Home Counties. Farage in Essex and the red wall.
And at least partly like Labour and Lib Dems.
Frankly the UK could do with more regionalist parties. We are way too centralised. It would push us to greater devolution.
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Tories will be ok with that if they hold up in the blue wall more, the red wall is gone, gone, gone
I'm standing by my hunch that the Portillo moment will be a prominent Labour MP losing to Reform. An Yvette Cooper or an Ed Miliband.
If the Tories do merge/get swallowed by Reform I suppose you could get the Conservative name back. The wonderfully paradoxical Conservative Reform Party?
Only problem is the initials for that are CRP…
Conservative Reform Alliance Pary
Would it still be the political party at prayer? Holy CRAP?
Their opposition to building on the green belt the main let down. Hopefully Labour do that part of their manifesto (house building etc) given they are the only party not beholden to the leafy suburbs.
If the Tories do merge/get swallowed by Reform I suppose you could get the Conservative name back. The wonderfully paradoxical Conservative Reform Party?
Only problem is the initials for that are CRP…
Conservative Reform Alliance Pary
On same truth-in-advertising principle as (in)famous Committee to Re-Elect the President = CREEP.
Most unpopular commitment in the various manifestos is Labour's commitment to votes at 16. Something I find utterly bizarre, not just because I live in a country where votes start at 16 and is completely uncontroversial. But people elsewhere are very negative.
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
Tories will be ok with that if they hold up in the blue wall more, the red wall is gone, gone, gone
Would also tell us something about the underlying realignment for next time and the time after.
Indeed. Labour may struggle to fight a three plus front war in future
Actually, here’s a thought. What if Reform/Tories don’t formally merge so much as end up in different geographies like the CDU/CSU in Germany or Liberals/Nats in Australia? They then form a less formal alliance.
Cameroons in the SW and the Home Counties. Farage in Essex and the red wall.
Could well be yeah. I think though its more likely we get a realignment. A populist split and a centrist option throwing their lot in with Norman Wisdom the comedy stunt leader
Blue sky strategy to save the Tories: Liz Truss should sue for unfair dismissal and get herself reinstated as PM, then cancel the election because Sunak wasn't the legitimate PM and give herself six months to turn things around.
The first debate is on June 27th, well before the convention. I’m still not convinced the Dems don’t swap Biden out if he turns up clearly not all with it.
But if they do swap him out, just about the worst person imaginable to replace him is Hillary Clinton.
This shadowy group of people who can swap him out simply doesn't exist except in the minds of people who watch and follow too much MAGA.
Biden can't get pushed out, if he withdraws the nominee will be Harris.
But Harris would now be a better bet than Biden I reckon. She can at least walk
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.
Interesting advertising pitchside for BYD. The “Chinese Tesla” that the EU have just slapped a 38% tariff on imports.
Chinese audience for the footy?
Nope, they’re trying to sell them in Europe now, and the EU are trying to stop them becuase they’re way cheaper than their European-made competitors. The suggestion is that the Chinese government are subsidising these companies.
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.
They should have put taxes up on the highest earners and got rid of the two child benefit cap . They’ve backed themselves into a corner. The vast majority of the population don’t care about tax rises as long as they don’t effect them personally .
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.
Every so often I feel a strange urge to listen to Del Amitri, Waking hours in full. Only ever in autumn or winter. I’ve no idea why, I like it but not like other groups I listen to full albums by. Maybe it’s a good album or maybe it’s just associated with a time and place. Aztec Camera is just one song that gets played a lot at parties and is a classic, the Frattelis Chelsea Dagger is one of the most overplayed ordinary songs .
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
We're going to the Argentine And we'll really shake em up When we win the world cup Cos Scotland are the greatest fitba team
Weirdly only 5 years before fatcha was called a colonialist pig for calling it the Argentine.
Yes, they did for Cruyff and co but found the Ayatollah/Shah and Paddington too much
Cruyff had retired by 1978.
From internationals yes. He was the subject of a kidnap attempt. And decided to go lower profile. Played in the US and back in Holland till 1984.
Yes, the point is he wasn’t in Argentina for the 1978 World Cup finals. Still a pretty decent Holland side and I can remember Archie Gemill putting Scotland 3-1 up with 20 minutes to go.
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.
Every so often I feel a strange urge to listen to Del Amitri, Waking hours in full. Only ever in autumn or winter. I’ve no idea why, I like it but not like other groups I listen to full albums by. Maybe it’s a good album or maybe it’s just associated with a time and place. Aztec Camera is just one song that gets played a lot at parties and is a classic, the Frattelis Chelsea Dagger is one of the most overplayed ordinary songs .
Momus is still going strong - cousin of the lead singer of Del Amatri.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
Comments
I guess they’ll be back home in time to vote.
one senior Labour figure tells me he believes Reform will come second in most of the Red Wall - behind his party - relegating Tories to third place in those areas
"An SSFA spokesman said: “We were slightly disappointed in the scoreline and we need to do more to convert our chances. A 4-1 victory over Scotland should not give our next opponents a false sense of security.”
So the main risk would be if there was an axis along which vote changes were markedly different, that they hadn't sampled, or didn't have in their regression model. Maybe if, somehow, they'd only sampled areas that still mostly got their news from the BBC, and so missed areas with more people who got their news from youtube. (But I don't see how that would happen).
Obvs, they're not going to have the coverage to pick up local effects due to particularly good candidates, or independent campaigns, so they're not going to provide a great steer on how well the Ashfield Independents will do.
The biggest risk, as with normal opinion polls, is a non-response bias. if, say, 10% of the people they asked to participate refused to do so, and those were mostly Reform voters who distrusted the exit poll as part of "them", then that would skew the results.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1801591460279546003
What a fascinating election. Will make projections into 2029 very tricky!
Cameroons in the SW and the Home Counties. Farage in Essex and the red wall.
{pry bars open a double case of magnums of Chateau de Chassilier}
We were poor. But ‘appy…..
Frankly the UK could do with more regionalist parties. We are way too centralised. It would push us to greater devolution.
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
Their opposition to building on the green belt the main let down. Hopefully Labour do that part of their manifesto (house building etc) given they are the only party not beholden to the leafy suburbs.
FFS!
Lidl!
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_3231
Germany are vastly superior
4:0
And we'll really shake em up
When we win the world cup
Cos Scotland are the greatest fitba team
Weirdly only 5 years before fatcha was called a colonialist pig for calling it the Argentine.
A cautiously positive sign for her recovery , hopefully.
He was the subject of a kidnap attempt.
And decided to go lower profile.
Played in the US and back in Holland till 1984.
Ein Volk .. Ein Party .. Ein Leader .. Ein Seat
We're going to the Argentine
And we'll really shake em up
When we nick the world cup
Cos Scotland are a rubbish fitba team