Understanding the exit poll – politicalbetting.com

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Understanding the exit poll – politicalbetting.com

‘There’s a misconception that there are people with clipboards or iPads outside polling stations asking how you voted.’Ipsos’ Kieran Pedley explains how the closing exit poll will be calculated on election night. @IainDale pic.twitter.com/D2k30ffs5C

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Heathener

1st like Labour

Heathener

And 2nd like, er, the LibDems

Heathener

And 3rd like Reform

Heathener

I’m enjoying this

4th like the Conservative Party

Leon

1st in my preferred list like combat 18

Ok fourth like The Black Hundreds

PedestrianRock

6th like the Conservative Party

Pulpstar

Greens might do well since this election is such a forgone conclusion

Heathener

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

biggles

In line with a comment in the previous thread. The Scots have arrived in Germany (NSFW):

https://x.com/FBAwayDays/status/1801571280015007859?t=oeR5vDHsiTHCWr9iv0iarw&s=08

Leon

Ok seventh like the Azov Batallion.

Seen in Kyiv three days ago

Anabobazina

Given the sophistication of this system, why don’t we just take a sample of votes at bellwether stations a la France? The French know the actual result a few minutes after polls close as I understand it.

biggles

Anabobazina said:

Given the sophistication of this system, why don’t we just take a sample of votes at bellwether stations a la France? The French know the actual result a few minutes after polls close as I understand it.

Where’s the fun in that?! Like many on here, thanks to this site I got 10/1 against Cameron’s 2015 majority AFTER Nuneaton. Uncertainly is lucrative.

WhisperingOracle

Leon said:

Ok seventh like the Azov Batallion.

Seen in Kyiv three days ago

What a charming insignia, there.

I wonder where I've seen that before ?

Leon

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I was FAMOUSLY exit polled for Brexitref as I exited the sunlit polling station in leafy Primrose Hill (back when we didn’t have summers like Anchorage, Alaska) and I asked the sweet girl doing the poll who on earth was paying her to exit poll the most Remainery polling station in the UK and she said “some bankers in the city” and that’s when I first began to think the powers-that-be had got it all wrong and a Leave vote was coming

LostPassword

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

PedestrianRock

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

wooliedyed

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

Given the sophistication of this system, why don’t we just take a sample of votes at bellwether stations a la France? The French know the actual result a few minutes after polls close as I understand it.

Where’s the fun in that?! Like many on here, thanks to this site I got 10/1 against Cameron’s 2015 majority AFTER Nuneaton. Uncertainly is lucrative.

Fpt you asked about councils, I think UKIP ran Thanet Council for a while

Leon

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Ok seventh like the Azov Batallion.

Seen in Kyiv three days ago

What a charming insignia, there.

I wonder where I've seen that before ?

Yep. I’ve seen plenty more of this as well

I know we are all pro-Ukraine here but I’ve seen some Nazi-tinged shit that would make your hair curl

I could post images but because of dorks like @Heathener we are still restricted to one a day

TimS

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

Given the sophistication of this system, why don’t we just take a sample of votes at bellwether stations a la France? The French know the actual result a few minutes after polls close as I understand it.

Where’s the fun in that?! Like many on here, thanks to this site I got 10/1 against Cameron’s 2015 majority AFTER Nuneaton. Uncertainly is lucrative.

That’s the one, single, really good thing about FPTP. It’s a shit voting system from a democratic perspective but it does deliver blockbuster general elections. You get:

- Perfect timing: it’s a very late night, but results start coming in early enough to keep you hooked. And it doesn’t drag on for days
- Notable MPs winning or losing seats, and Portillo moments
- Suspense until the guest meaningful seats come in, and projections of swing
- Little oddities, plots within plots, throughout the night

When we replace FPTP we need to do something to ensure the new system is equally dramatic.

Heathener

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Sandpit

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

TheScreamingEagles

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Leon

Sandpit said:

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

What was the exit poll for Brexit ref? Surely there was one? Or were they all private??

TheScreamingEagles

Leon said:

Sandpit said:

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

What was the exit poll for Brexit ref? Surely there was one? Or were they all private??

There was no proper exit poll in 2016.

There were how did you vote polls by the pollsters though.

Carnyx

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

biggles

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I was FAMOUSLY exit polled for Brexitref as I exited the sunlit polling station in leafy Primrose Hill (back when we didn’t have summers like Anchorage, Alaska) and I asked the sweet girl doing the poll who on earth was paying her to exit poll the most Remainery polling station in the UK and she said “some bankers in the city” and that’s when I first began to think the powers-that-be had got it all wrong and a Leave vote was coming

Hold on, haven’t you just stolen one of much missed PBer @seanT’s stories?

PedestrianRock

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

Peter_the_Punter

Five of the last six polls have put the Tories below 20%. I never thought I would see the day.

Not sure where this all ends.

I need to watch some football and drink some wine.

C ya.

TimS

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Ok seventh like the Azov Batallion.

Seen in Kyiv three days ago

What a charming insignia, there.

I wonder where I've seen that before ?

Yep. I’ve seen plenty more of this as well

I know we are all pro-Ukraine here but I’ve seen some Nazi-tinged shit that would make your hair curl

I could post images but because of dorks like @Heathener we are still restricted to one a day

I remember being brought up short in Kyiv by a signboard for a restaurant featuring a cartoon of the ultimate stereotypical Jew: big nose and lips, kippah, money everywhere, proper fiddler on the roof / Oliver Twist stuff. The kind of image Corbyn would probably retweet approvingly without realising it was problematic.

But I know you see the same or worse in Russia (I’ve seen it, in full flagrant view in the Moscow office of one of our partners shortly after the Crimea annexation - a cartoon of a jolly Russian farmer anal raping a Ukrainian woman). And Ukraine doesn’t seek the destruction of the Western world order.

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

Sir John has been working on the exit poll since 2005 and it has never let us down.

I mean in 2015 he predicted the Tories just short but as the early results came in he updated it to a Tory majority.

Benpointer

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I was FAMOUSLY exit polled for Brexitref as I exited the sunlit polling station in leafy Primrose Hill (back when we didn’t have summers like Anchorage, Alaska) and I asked the sweet girl doing the poll who on earth was paying her to exit poll the most Remainery polling station in the UK and she said “some bankers in the city” and that’s when I first began to think the powers-that-be had got it all wrong and a Leave vote was coming

I blame Brexit - the EU has cut us adrift to our own shitty weather.

Leon

biggles said:

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I was FAMOUSLY exit polled for Brexitref as I exited the sunlit polling station in leafy Primrose Hill (back when we didn’t have summers like Anchorage, Alaska) and I asked the sweet girl doing the poll who on earth was paying her to exit poll the most Remainery polling station in the UK and she said “some bankers in the city” and that’s when I first began to think the powers-that-be had got it all wrong and a Leave vote was coming

Hold on, haven’t you just stolen one of much missed PBer @seanT’s stories?

I imagine, as ever, it’s the other way round. I will never be read of him and my other stalkers. Like @martingill and @sirclive and @komita and @woodhouseian

TimS

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

Was that…a self-doxx?

TheScreamingEagles

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Carnyx

TimS said:

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

Was that…a self-doxx?

No: 'here' refers to the Graun, therefore someone else somewhere else. Sorry.

Sandpit

Leon said:

Sandpit said:

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

What was the exit poll for Brexit ref? Surely there was one? Or were they all private??

There was only the private one in which you participated, not one for the broadcasters because they didn’t have enough experience to do it vs a Parliamentary election.

TimS

Peter_the_Punter said:

Five of the last six polls have put the Tories below 20%. I never thought I would see the day.

Not sure where this all ends.

I need to watch some football and drink some wine.

C ya.

It ends with, surprise surprise, the Tories gaining back most of the Reform vote and finishing in the respectable high twenties of possibly a smidgen over 30.

EPG

The two-party swings in England at the last three general elections were one, three and five per cent. This time based on the GB polls, it could be fifteen to eighteen per cent.

Also, didn't the 2015 exit poll say NOM at 10pm? No criticism, but inaccurate enough for a well informed punter to improve on it, if you spot something they don't.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

Heathener

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).

I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.

Nice article. Thank you for linking it.

xx

TimS

Carnyx said:

TimS said:

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

Was that…a self-doxx?

No: 'here' refers to the Graun, therefore someone else somewhere else. Sorry.

I believe you. Libby.

FrancisUrquhart

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Taz said:

Spineless from the Latitude Festival

https://x.com/skynews/status/1801621690645954839?s=61

Not really the Download Festival had quite a few acts pull out last week.

https://www.theguardian.com/music/article/2024/jun/12/multiple-bands-pull-out-of-download-festival-over-barclays-israel-ties

Who?

Leeds band Pest Control wrote: “We cannot sacrifice the principles held by this band and by the scene we come from and represent, just for personal gain.”

As a result of their boycott, punk bands Speed, Scowl and Zulu also pulled out of the festival over the Barclays sponsorship, criticising the bank for the financial services it provides.

British metalcore band Ithaca joined the boycott on Tuesday evening.

I am into metalcore and even I don't know who they are.

So why would you give up what’s likely to be six figures in sponsorship, for a bunch of bands no-one has heard of, and when the tickets are sold already?

From a business sense, its crazy.

My understanding is that festivals are hugely high risk operations and profitability is very much tied to things out of the operators control e.g. weather. The reason they take sponsorships is to level out the variance and give a level of stability.

Unless its a Live Nation owned festival (who are just so massive they can ride out the variance and they also sell the tickets through Ticketmaster), giving into this stuff, you are just making life so hard in the future. Companies are going to be really wary of wanting to do business with you in case you fold like deckchair because a handful of bands nobody has heard of throw a hissy fit.

I can't say I've heard of them, but something's made them cave in. Perhaps you (and I) aren't down with the kids and these bands a big deal among those going to that festival. I mean, they've bought tickets so presumably there's something they want to see.

I would think that most people are much more interested in seeing the likes of Avenged Sevenfold, Corey Taylor, and While She Sleeps.

These big festivals though are becoming increasing memmmmber-berry. Download the hardcore rock / metalcore festival has Offspring, Fallout Boy, Sum41, Bowling For Soup, Wheatus, Hoobastank, Atreyu...its like Warped Tour 2000s.

And the cheesiest crappiest "alternative" act from then, Limp Bizkit, have now all of a suddenly become really popular again.

TheScreamingEagles

EPG said:

The two-party swings in England at the last three general elections were one, three and five per cent. This time based on the GB polls, it could be fifteen to eighteen per cent.

Also, didn't the 2015 exit poll say NOM at 10pm? No criticism, but inaccurate enough for a well informed punter to improve on it, if you spot something they don't.

It put the Tories on 316 when most of the polls were putting the Tories in the 260 to 300 range.

Leon

TimS said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

Ok seventh like the Azov Batallion.

Seen in Kyiv three days ago

What a charming insignia, there.

I wonder where I've seen that before ?

Yep. I’ve seen plenty more of this as well

I know we are all pro-Ukraine here but I’ve seen some Nazi-tinged shit that would make your hair curl

I could post images but because of dorks like @Heathener we are still restricted to one a day

I remember being brought up short in Kyiv by a signboard for a restaurant featuring a cartoon of the ultimate stereotypical Jew: big nose and lips, kippah, money everywhere, proper fiddler on the roof / Oliver Twist stuff. The kind of image Corbyn would probably retweet approvingly without realising it was problematic.

But I know you see the same or worse in Russia (I’ve seen it, in full flagrant view in the Moscow office of one of our partners shortly after the Crimea annexation - a cartoon of a jolly Russian farmer anal raping a Ukrainian woman). And Ukraine doesn’t seek the destruction of the Western world order.

Yes, quite so

The truly confuddling thing is that both sides use Nazi imagery (wtf is the Z about on Russian tanks etc? And all those WAGNER guys with swastika tatts)

I think it is simply something soldiers do. Nazi signs are seen as macho and brutal and scary so you adopt them

Also there is merit in the Russian accusation that Ukrainian politics has some Nazi antecedents. Bandera is not fiction. He existed. And the Ukrainians were tremendous anti semites. But so were many Russians and the Estonians and Latvians etc who are now cherished partners in Europe

It’s a moral mess. But the fact is Putin is the invader and he threatens all of us so we must support Ukraine nonetheless

TimS

Heathener said:

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).

I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.

Nice article. Thank you for linking it.

xx

I was asked to do a little life history thing for work this week as part of an occasional series, so in homage I started with “my father was a tax inspector”.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

Sandpit

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

The 10pm exit poll was 316 seats, and Cameron ended up with 330. Most markets for majority wanted to see 326 seats, ignoring the Shinners and the Speaker.

BBC Election Night 2015 video

TimS

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

Is there a puntable pattern over previous elections that the exit poll understates Tory seats? I’m thinking possibly not as I’m sure in 1997 it overstated them because of Lib Dem gains, but would be interesting to know.

Benpointer

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

Sandpit said:

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

What was the exit poll for Brexit ref? Surely there was one? Or were they all private??

There was only the private one in which you participated, not one for the broadcasters because they didn’t have enough experience to do it vs a Parliamentary election.

Indeed, I definitely remember them saying multiple times that there could be no exit poll for Brexit Ref.

TheScreamingEagles

TimS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

Is there a puntable pattern over previous elections that the exit poll understates Tory seats? I’m thinking possibly not as I’m sure in 1997 it overstated them because of Lib Dem gains, but would be interesting to know.

The current exit poll team have been working on the exit poll since 2005 onwards, I only judge them since then.

Benpointer

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).

I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.

Nice article. Thank you for linking it.

xx

The only pollster that could ever reach me
Was the son of a joiner man

Sandpit

Benpointer said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

Sandpit said:

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

What was the exit poll for Brexit ref? Surely there was one? Or were they all private??

There was only the private one in which you participated, not one for the broadcasters because they didn’t have enough experience to do it vs a Parliamentary election.

Indeed, I definitely remember them saying multiple times that there could be no exit poll for Brexit Ref.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-exit-poll-who-has-won-remain-leave-brexit-live-updates-a7094886.html

“Prof Curtice and his team couldn’t do what they usually do, because the last referendum to compare today’s with was 41 years ago – and there wasn’t an exit poll then. There is, therefore, no baseline against which to measure how people have voted this time.

Some estimates have been made, extrapolating from opinion poll questions, of how pro- or anti-EU various places in the UK are. These will be useful on Friday morning for judging the significance of the early results. Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia estimates that if Leave is six percentage points ahead in Sunderland, expected to be one of the first councils to declare, that would mean the national vote is close.

YouGov has also produced a map of the UK showing how Eurosceptic the country is by parliamentary constituency.

But such estimates are not accurate enough to base an exit poll on, so the broadcasters decided not to go to the expense of commissioning one.”

Meanwhile, we on PB had @Andy_JS and his spreadsheet. Andy I still owe you a few beers should we ever meet.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

You could say the same about 2017 too.

Interesting that when the 2017 exit poll came out, instinctively I thought that if it was going to be wrong, it wouldn’t be wrong in the Tories’ favour.

TOPPING

Just seen a cracking ad on YouTube for Lab featuring ex-Cons voters saying they were going to vote Lab this time.

Like they were speaking directly to me.

The video that I searched for that it preceded if that's any clue was Peter Tosh's live version of Johnny B Goode. Make of that what you will.

Benpointer

TOPPING said:

Just seen a cracking ad on YouTube for Lab featuring ex-Cons voters saying they were going to vote Lab this time.

Like they were speaking directly to me.

The video that I searched for that it preceded if that's any clue was Peter Tosh's live version of Johnny B Goode. Make of that what you will.

Link?

Heathener

Sandpit said:

Benpointer said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

Sandpit said:

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

What was the exit poll for Brexit ref? Surely there was one? Or were they all private??

There was only the private one in which you participated, not one for the broadcasters because they didn’t have enough experience to do it vs a Parliamentary election.

Indeed, I definitely remember them saying multiple times that there could be no exit poll for Brexit Ref.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-exit-poll-who-has-won-remain-leave-brexit-live-updates-a7094886.html

“Prof Curtice and his team couldn’t do what they usually do, because the last referendum to compare today’s with was 41 years ago – and there wasn’t an exit poll then. There is, therefore, no baseline against which to measure how people have voted this time.

Some estimates have been made, extrapolating from opinion poll questions, of how pro- or anti-EU various places in the UK are. These will be useful on Friday morning for judging the significance of the early results. Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia estimates that if Leave is six percentage points ahead in Sunderland, expected to be one of the first councils to declare, that would mean the national vote is close.

YouGov has also produced a map of the UK showing how Eurosceptic the country is by parliamentary constituency.

But such estimates are not accurate enough to base an exit poll on, so the broadcasters decided not to go to the expense of commissioning one.”

Yes I remember that well.

Another error by @Leon

Does he ever get anything right?

boulay

…

Heathener said:

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).

I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.

Nice article. Thank you for linking it.

xx

What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.

He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.

So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

You could say the same about 2017 too.

Interesting that when the 2017 exit poll came out, instinctively I thought that if it was going to be wrong, it wouldn’t be wrong in the Tories’ favour.

One thing that gets overlooked is that the exit poll keeps on getting updated throughout the night as the results come in. IIRC after Nuneaton Sir John said a Tory majority was looking likely.

Benpointer

TimS said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Five of the last six polls have put the Tories below 20%. I never thought I would see the day.

Not sure where this all ends.

I need to watch some football and drink some wine.

C ya.

It ends with, surprise surprise, the Tories gaining back most of the Reform vote and finishing in the respectable high twenties of possibly a smidgen over 30.

Not.this.time

Anabobazina

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

You could say the same about 2017 too.

Interesting that when the 2017 exit poll came out, instinctively I thought that if it was going to be wrong, it wouldn’t be wrong in the Tories’ favour.

Was that the David Herdson Effect playing with your mind?

TOPPING

Benpointer said:

TOPPING said:

Just seen a cracking ad on YouTube for Lab featuring ex-Cons voters saying they were going to vote Lab this time.

Like they were speaking directly to me.

The video that I searched for that it preceded if that's any clue was Peter Tosh's live version of Johnny B Goode. Make of that what you will.

Link?

Not sure I can give it because it appeared on my signed in YouTube.

Featured an ex-serviceman, a grandmother, and a black guy. Plus someone having cancer treatment which was a bit de trop but if he wanted to do it....

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

You could say the same about 2017 too.

Interesting that when the 2017 exit poll came out, instinctively I thought that if it was going to be wrong, it wouldn’t be wrong in the Tories’ favour.

One thing that gets overlooked is that the exit poll keeps on getting updated throughout the night as the results come in. IIRC after Nuneaton Sir John said a Tory majority was looking likely.

That's not really an exit poll anymore though is it?

williamglenn

TOPPING said:

Just seen a cracking ad on YouTube for Lab featuring ex-Cons voters saying they were going to vote Lab this time.

Like they were speaking directly to me.

The video that I searched for that it preceded if that's any clue was Peter Tosh's live version of Johnny B Goode. Make of that what you will.

At the beginning of the 2017 campaign, Newsnight did a feature with loads of Labour voters who said they were going to vote Tory. I wonder how many of them actually did.

Anabobazina

TOPPING said:

Just seen a cracking ad on YouTube for Lab featuring ex-Cons voters saying they were going to vote Lab this time.

Like they were speaking directly to me.

The video that I searched for that it preceded if that's any clue was Peter Tosh's live version of Johnny B Goode. Make of that what you will.

Will you be joining us this time @Topping? Be an honour to have you.

EPG

My specific concerns this time are that it is easier to extrapolate a UNS-type number (i.e. relying on errors cancelling each other out, each way) when the overall two-party swing is around 1% than when it is around 17%. The errors just might not cancel each other out unless the team goes to a lot of effort to blanket the country MRP-style. Another concern: we all know which seats to poll if we think LDs in 2015 are going to be eviscerated, whereas who know what X seats should be polled this time for Reform gains, and how to scale them up to the 10*X seats they might win? They haven't done well in recent national elections.

tlg86

Anabobazina said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

You could say the same about 2017 too.

Interesting that when the 2017 exit poll came out, instinctively I thought that if it was going to be wrong, it wouldn’t be wrong in the Tories’ favour.

Was that the David Herdson Effect playing with your mind?

Probably just a psychological effect of the exit polling being worse for the Tories than expected. I assumed - probably erroneously - that if it was wrong, it wouldn’t be any better for the Tories. In the end, I think the Tories did three seats better.

EPG

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

You could say the same about 2017 too.

Interesting that when the 2017 exit poll came out, instinctively I thought that if it was going to be wrong, it wouldn’t be wrong in the Tories’ favour.

One thing that gets overlooked is that the exit poll keeps on getting updated throughout the night as the results come in. IIRC after Nuneaton Sir John said a Tory majority was looking likely.

I certainly agree that one shouldn't bet against projections informed by declared election results.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

You could say the same about 2017 too.

Interesting that when the 2017 exit poll came out, instinctively I thought that if it was going to be wrong, it wouldn’t be wrong in the Tories’ favour.

One thing that gets overlooked is that the exit poll keeps on getting updated throughout the night as the results come in. IIRC after Nuneaton Sir John said a Tory majority was looking likely.

Nuneaton is the first bellwether seat, usually declares around 1am. The swing Con>Lab in this seat is a likely predictor of where we end up.

TOPPING

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Just seen a cracking ad on YouTube for Lab featuring ex-Cons voters saying they were going to vote Lab this time.

Like they were speaking directly to me.

The video that I searched for that it preceded if that's any clue was Peter Tosh's live version of Johnny B Goode. Make of that what you will.

Will you be joining us this time @Topping? Be an honour to have you.

Thanks mate but no. In general your party doesn't like me so I will be unable to vote for them but LibDems perhaps. Def not Cons.

AlsoLei

TimS said:

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

Given the sophistication of this system, why don’t we just take a sample of votes at bellwether stations a la France? The French know the actual result a few minutes after polls close as I understand it.

Where’s the fun in that?! Like many on here, thanks to this site I got 10/1 against Cameron’s 2015 majority AFTER Nuneaton. Uncertainly is lucrative.

That’s the one, single, really good thing about FPTP. It’s a shit voting system from a democratic perspective but it does deliver blockbuster general elections. You get:

- Perfect timing: it’s a very late night, but results start coming in early enough to keep you hooked. And it doesn’t drag on for days
- Notable MPs winning or losing seats, and Portillo moments
- Suspense until the guest meaningful seats come in, and projections of swing
- Little oddities, plots within plots, throughout the night

When we replace FPTP we need to do something to ensure the new system is equally dramatic.

STV is pretty good for that, especially if full tables were published promptly at the end of each round of counting.

For max drama, the ideal situation might be something like the electronic counting system used in Scotland, modified to have a minimum half hour gap between each round.

You'd still have the race to get the ballot boxes to the count, and then to verify. First round results would start coming through from around 2300, and most counts would complete in the 0100-0400 timeframe as we see now... but there'd be oh so many more twists and turns for us to get our teeth into along the way.

Heathener

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

The time when it’s possible to make money is if people lose their heads when early results come in and they bet against the exit poll.

This really does sometimes happen but you really have to be careful and you also have to watch out for people deliberately feeding false information to spike, or spook, the markets.

My best ever betting night came in the last US Presidential election on the Spreads. When the first Florida results came through the market went nuts: people traded out of Biden and massively onto Trump. It was incredible to watch.

So I came in and bet against the market

Why so?

Because if you drilled down into the subsets, the Florida result was driven by Hispanics and they weren’t going to decide the eventual outcome of the Presidential race. The people who would lay upstate in Florida’s suburbs and they were showing a c.2.5% swing from Republican to Democrat (ref baseline of Hillary Clinton obvs).

I knew that if replicated in the swing states further north, that 2.5% movement would be enough to clinch Biden the Presidency.

So I went in big on the Spreads and made the most I’ve ever made in betting. Nerve-wracking and thrilling night.

But I still wouldn’t bet against the exit poll.

Sean_F

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

Benpointer said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

Sandpit said:

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

What was the exit poll for Brexit ref? Surely there was one? Or were they all private??

There was only the private one in which you participated, not one for the broadcasters because they didn’t have enough experience to do it vs a Parliamentary election.

Indeed, I definitely remember them saying multiple times that there could be no exit poll for Brexit Ref.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-exit-poll-who-has-won-remain-leave-brexit-live-updates-a7094886.html

“Prof Curtice and his team couldn’t do what they usually do, because the last referendum to compare today’s with was 41 years ago – and there wasn’t an exit poll then. There is, therefore, no baseline against which to measure how people have voted this time.

Some estimates have been made, extrapolating from opinion poll questions, of how pro- or anti-EU various places in the UK are. These will be useful on Friday morning for judging the significance of the early results. Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia estimates that if Leave is six percentage points ahead in Sunderland, expected to be one of the first councils to declare, that would mean the national vote is close.

YouGov has also produced a map of the UK showing how Eurosceptic the country is by parliamentary constituency.

But such estimates are not accurate enough to base an exit poll on, so the broadcasters decided not to go to the expense of commissioning one.”

Yes I remember that well.

Another error by @Leon

Does he ever get anything right?

Investment banks conducted exit polls that were not Jon Curtice standard. The point of his exit polls is to ask tens of thousands how they voted, and then compare it to last time.

Stuartinromford

TOPPING said:

Just seen a cracking ad on YouTube for Lab featuring ex-Cons voters saying they were going to vote Lab this time.

Like they were speaking directly to me.

The video that I searched for that it preceded if that's any clue was Peter Tosh's live version of Johnny B Goode. Make of that what you will.

We're all hoping that the new Prime Minister will B Goode?

IanB2

TimS said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Five of the last six polls have put the Tories below 20%. I never thought I would see the day.

Not sure where this all ends.

I need to watch some football and drink some wine.

C ya.

It ends with, surprise surprise, the Tories gaining back most of the Reform vote and finishing in the respectable high twenties of possibly a smidgen over 30.

That's my feeling and fear, based on nothing more than remembering all the weeks of fantastical speculation on here in 2017 about Labour being wiped out, then it didn't happen

No_Offence_Alan

TimS said:

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

Given the sophistication of this system, why don’t we just take a sample of votes at bellwether stations a la France? The French know the actual result a few minutes after polls close as I understand it.

Where’s the fun in that?! Like many on here, thanks to this site I got 10/1 against Cameron’s 2015 majority AFTER Nuneaton. Uncertainly is lucrative.

That’s the one, single, really good thing about FPTP. It’s a shit voting system from a democratic perspective but it does deliver blockbuster general elections. You get:

- Perfect timing: it’s a very late night, but results start coming in early enough to keep you hooked. And it doesn’t drag on for days
- Notable MPs winning or losing seats, and Portillo moments
- Suspense until the guest meaningful seats come in, and projections of swing
- Little oddities, plots within plots, throughout the night

When we replace FPTP we need to do something to ensure the new system is equally dramatic.

Not "dramatic", but this visualisation of STV results is a thing of beauty.
https://election.indylive.radio/results/?fbclid=IwAR3hLmZ3K2oY15QNr2acgnfJjlYWDN_aLoIbia9sB4kDhW3zkvzOGJ7KMdM

wooliedyed

In terms of whether the Tories claw their way back, we should know sooner than July 4th. If the crossover headlines haven't scared the core back to voting certainty by later next week they ain't coming back at all.

IanB2

TimS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Betting on a Tory majority after the exit poll in 2015 was very much betting against the exit poll.

It wasn't, given the error range on the exit was circa 15 seats, it was in Tory majority range.

Is there a puntable pattern over previous elections that the exit poll understates Tory seats? I’m thinking possibly not as I’m sure in 1997 it overstated them because of Lib Dem gains, but would be interesting to know.

Isn't that why the exit poll is now a secret ballot? So the Tory voters can slink away with their shameful secret.

Heathener

boulay said:

…

Heathener said:

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).

I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.

Nice article. Thank you for linking it.

xx

What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.

He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.

So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.

+1

What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?

Footie time for me now.

xx

williamglenn

IanB2 said:

TimS said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Five of the last six polls have put the Tories below 20%. I never thought I would see the day.

Not sure where this all ends.

I need to watch some football and drink some wine.

C ya.

It ends with, surprise surprise, the Tories gaining back most of the Reform vote and finishing in the respectable high twenties of possibly a smidgen over 30.

That's my feeling and fear, based on nothing more than remembering all the weeks of fantastical speculation on here in 2017 about Labour being wiped out, then it didn't happen

My own gut feeling is that Labour will end up with a share of the vote below current polling in the mid-30s, but the Tories won't recover.

stodge

Evening all

The good thing about the exit poll is it doesn't have to worry about Don't Knows and Won't Votes or Prefer Not to Say or whatever.It should be accurate on that basis. The 2019 exit poll was effectively an MRP - a forecast of seats based on the poll.

It underestinated Labour and overestimated both Conservative and SNP seats.

Anyway, of far greater import, I can now announce the REAL REASON Sunak called a General Election for July 4th.

This will be the fourth successive GE where I will be voting by post as Mrs Stodge and I are on holiday on Polling Day.

In 2015, we were in Las Vegas, in 2017 Zante, in 2019 Tenerife and this time the Isle of Man.

Nunu5

Why are more Tories not panicking publicly? Is it because there's still 3 weeks to go?
Or have they resigned themselves to their fate? (Or think it unhelpful?)

wooliedyed

Wee Dougie cleared of expenses naughtiness by IPSA, don't think that will make him flavour of the month with Duguiders though!

OldKingCole

I have to admit I’m coming across more Don’t (yet) Knows and Will Not Votes than usually. And while I’m likely to vote Labour I’m not not yet certain.

Sandpit

stodge said:

Evening all

The good thing about the exit poll is it doesn't have to worry about Don't Knows and Won't Votes or Prefer Not to Say or whatever.It should be accurate on that basis. The 2019 exit poll was effectively an MRP - a forecast of seats based on the poll.

It underestinated Labour and overestimated both Conservative and SNP seats.

Anyway, of far greater import, I can now announce the REAL REASON Sunak called a General Election for July 4th.

This will be the fourth successive GE where I will be voting by post as Mrs Stodge and I are on holiday on Polling Day.

In 2015, we were in Las Vegas, in 2017 Zante, in 2019 Tenerife and this time the Isle of Man.

That’s quite the impressive record of dodging election days!

boulay

wooliedyed said:

In terms of whether the Tories claw their way back, we should know sooner than July 4th. If the crossover headlines haven't scared the core back to voting certainty by later next week they ain't coming back at all.

I think it needs a week of crazy reform candidates being outed and a manifesto that’s nuts, however despite how much I want their manifesto to be a shocker I think they have some smarts in reform (I think their PPB was genius for sharing on social media). I think they’ve left it long enough to remove anything seriously stupid, any bold financial claims and they’ve had a few days after Labour and Cons to adjust to spike them if possible.

The last hope, the forlorn hope of Tory MPs, will probably need those who were saying they would vote reform to either change their minds and stick to nurse in the cool of the voting booth or to decide that as they hate everyone they aren’t going to bother voting.

Sean_F

wooliedyed said:

In terms of whether the Tories claw their way back, we should know sooner than July 4th. If the crossover headlines haven't scared the core back to voting certainty by later next week they ain't coming back at all.

Either Reform need to come back to the Conservatives. Or, they have to kill them off. The worst result is the right getting 18% each, and 30 seats between them.

Leon

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

Benpointer said:

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

Sandpit said:

Don’t bet against Sir John. The official exit poll has been ridiculously accurate for the past few elections, and hasn’t really failed since 1992, when they predicted Major to be a few seats short rather than a few seats over the line.

What was the exit poll for Brexit ref? Surely there was one? Or were they all private??

There was only the private one in which you participated, not one for the broadcasters because they didn’t have enough experience to do it vs a Parliamentary election.

Indeed, I definitely remember them saying multiple times that there could be no exit poll for Brexit Ref.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-exit-poll-who-has-won-remain-leave-brexit-live-updates-a7094886.html

“Prof Curtice and his team couldn’t do what they usually do, because the last referendum to compare today’s with was 41 years ago – and there wasn’t an exit poll then. There is, therefore, no baseline against which to measure how people have voted this time.

Some estimates have been made, extrapolating from opinion poll questions, of how pro- or anti-EU various places in the UK are. These will be useful on Friday morning for judging the significance of the early results. Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia estimates that if Leave is six percentage points ahead in Sunderland, expected to be one of the first councils to declare, that would mean the national vote is close.

YouGov has also produced a map of the UK showing how Eurosceptic the country is by parliamentary constituency.

But such estimates are not accurate enough to base an exit poll on, so the broadcasters decided not to go to the expense of commissioning one.”

Yes I remember that well.

Another error by @Leon

Does he ever get anything right?

I said I personally encountered a private poll done by city bankers and then I asked if any public exit polls were done. Why do I bother. You are a fucking eeeeeejit

Pulpstar

This reform ppb !!

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PedestrianRock said:

As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?

This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.

Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?

No.

The market shat itself twice at 10pm in 2015 and 2017.

Shat itself as in, there were a few seconds at 10pm where if you were quick enough you could get a value bet on e.g. NOM in 2017?

In 2015 there were several hours when a Tory majority looked likely but you could get around 10/1 on it on Betfair.

In 2017 there was a belief the exit poll was wrong but I definitely caused ructions at Matthew Parker Street and Betfair with this thread.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

Thankfully Scotland and Ruth Davidson stopped us getting PM Corbyn.

Lots of bodily functions are going to spectacularly fail at 10pm in 3 weeks time as well.

OldKingCole

Party election broadcast by Reform is just a screenshot saying “Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform.
No-ones saying anything, no verbals.

IanB2

EPG said:

My specific concerns this time are that it is easier to extrapolate a UNS-type number (i.e. relying on errors cancelling each other out, each way) when the overall two-party swing is around 1% than when it is around 17%. The errors just might not cancel each other out unless the team goes to a lot of effort to blanket the country MRP-style. Another concern: we all know which seats to poll if we think LDs in 2015 are going to be eviscerated, whereas who know what X seats should be polled this time for Reform gains, and how to scale them up to the 10*X seats they might win? They haven't done well in recent national elections.

More fundamentally, the swing this time is likely to be more proportional than uniform.

The exit poll will give the NEV but the model they then use to work out the projected seats will probably be flawed.

wooliedyed

Nunu5 said:

Why are more Tories not panicking publicly? Is it because there's still 3 weeks to go?
Or have they resigned themselves to their fate? (Or think it unhelpful?)

Or they think the vote isn't collapsing evenly - Jim Pickard said labour sources told him they expect Reform to beat the Tories throughout the red wall, so perhaps their shire, London etc vote is holding up better and they are disintegrating in the red wall (like in the Hartlepool poll) hence they hope to hold on to a respectable number.
Or, they're numb

boulay

Heathener said:

boulay said:

…

Heathener said:

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).

And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.

(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )

I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.

But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.

Yes indeed.

I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.

I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!

But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.

Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls

Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).

I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.

Nice article. Thank you for linking it.

xx

What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.

He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.

So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.

+1

What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?

Footie time for me now.

xx

The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.

wooliedyed

Sean_F said:

wooliedyed said:

In terms of whether the Tories claw their way back, we should know sooner than July 4th. If the crossover headlines haven't scared the core back to voting certainty by later next week they ain't coming back at all.

Either Reform need to come back to the Conservatives. Or, they have to kill them off. The worst result is the right getting 18% each, and 30 seats between them.

https://x.com/Callum_L_Hunter/status/1801651287273992321?s=19
That suggests Farage won't convince the core older vote so I think it's Con eat Ref or they both go down

Leon

I don’t think the Tories are coming back this time

boulay

OldKingCole said:

Party election broadcast by Reform is just a screenshot saying “Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform.
No-ones saying anything, no verbals.

It will just be rolling on social media and people will see it, they don’t need to listen to get the message or watch it to get the story. Simple but effective. They aren’t all idiots in reform which is more dangerous.

wooliedyed

OldKingCole said:

Party election broadcast by Reform is just a screenshot saying “Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform.
No-ones saying anything, no verbals.

Nutters. Skint nutters.

Sandpit

Leon said:

I don’t think the Tories are coming back this time

One seat’s enough.

Foxy

wooliedyed said:

Nunu5 said:

Why are more Tories not panicking publicly? Is it because there's still 3 weeks to go?
Or have they resigned themselves to their fate? (Or think it unhelpful?)

Or they think the vote isn't collapsing evenly - Jim Pickard said labour sources told him they expect Reform to beat the Tories throughout the red wall, so perhaps their shire, London etc vote is holding up better and they are disintegrating in the red wall (like in the Hartlepool poll) hence they hope to hold on to a respectable number.
Or, they're numb

It's denial, like 2015 LibDems thinking their personal vote will save them.

wooliedyed

Sandpit said:

Leon said:

I don’t think the Tories are coming back this time

One seat’s enough.

London will see you alright, they aren't losing Orpington etc