Understanding the exit poll – politicalbetting.com
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Endorsed by Adam Smith in The Stealth of Nations (1776)boulay said:
It was the correct choice.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:
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This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.4 -
Good news for Everton fans.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/06/14/everton-exclusivity-terms-takeover-roma-owner-dan-friedkin/0 -
he’s planning to hard over to Ange ?Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
Damn.0 -
Bookmarked….Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
Although I guess you might mean Streeting takes over for terms two and three?0 -
That news from the Labour ground operation, suggesting that Reform are ahead of the Tories in the Red Wall but not in the Blue Wall, suggests to me that my thinking from earlier might have some use.
If they want the survive as an independent force in the future, one of the only ways for them might be by ceding the very populist ground, and certain areas of the country , to Reform, and then allying with them intermittently.1 -
Surprisingly, mine said was equally Reform and Labour. It more illustrates my anger at the party system than an actual prediction of my voting behaviour.TimS said:One of those fun political quizzes based on the manifestos.
Says I should vote Lib Dem, surprise surprise.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/285d9d36-830a-4847-b237-4cdc780edf38?shareToken=6b258d21f828373c026aaf27b17bb4122 -
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.4 -
1. I hate Chelsea Dagger. Whistle for the Choir, Look out Sunshine, Lupe Brown, are the point.boulay said:
Every so often I feel a strange urge to listen to Del Amitri, Waking hours in full. Only ever in autumn or winter. I’ve no idea why, I like it but not like other groups I listen to full albums by. Maybe it’s a good album or maybe it’s just associated with a time and place. Aztec Camera is just one song that gets played a lot at parties and is a classic, the Frattelis Chelsea Dagger is one of the most overplayed ordinary songs .Tweedledee said:
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.biggles said:
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.Mexicanpete said:...
Is that a good omen?wooliedyed said:C'mon Ally's Army!
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
2. Waking Hours is pretty much flawless, let down only by Nothing Ever Happens, which itself is only let down by its over popularity. Stone Cold Sober Is a top 20 of all time song.
3. Aztec Camera - I had to spend a night in Glasgow a bit ago in a grotty holiday inn by a coach station which made me sad till I realised that I was on KILLERMONT STREET. They bat a bit deeper than SIMH.1 -
Penalty and a red?1
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Penalty for Germany given!0
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He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.0 -
It wasn’t a choice, though, was it.boulay said:
It was the correct choice.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:
And India was kind of a private sector thing.2 -
Red card0
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Both for me, Clive.wooliedyed said:Penalty and a red?
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A mess that he was in part responsible for as he had previously been Chancellor in those very same Boris years you are talking about.boulay said:
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.0 -
Could the answer be (a) it's clearly a crazy idea so (b) it wasn't ever talked about in policy meetings therefore (c) there wasn't a decision not to do it because it wasn't considered and (d) Rayner didn't feel like she had the right to bounce Reeves into a policy statement that wasn't in the lines to take.wooliedyed said:
Yeah I mentioned this thus morning and, per Woolies recommendation Labour quickly shut it down. Of course having to do so does leave the door open to those ????s about whither thy fundingBig_G_NorthWales said:
Good eveningrottenborough said:
Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
NEW
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.
Rayners lose talk must have spread panic in Labour ranks
Nobody who wants to be in power threatens home owners with capital gains tax on their own home
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Bookmark away, as will I.IanB2 said:
Bookmarked….Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
Although I guess you might mean Streeting takes over for terms two and three?
You can apologise profusely when I prove to be right, which I will graciously accept.0 -
.
All daywooliedyed said:Penalty and a red?
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Scotland are making a proper Sunak of this.3
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That’s a harsh red card.0
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That's going to make it slightly more challenging in the second half...0
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3-0 - oh well0
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3:00
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Final score - 7- 0? 8 - 0?0
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Studs up. I really don’t think so.Sandpit said:That’s a harsh red card.
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Bang goes my 2-1 prediction
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If the Conservatives lose the election, which of their PMs since 2010 will be most to blame?Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Boris Johnson: 25%
Rishi Sunak: 23%
Liz Truss: 17%
Among 2019 Tory voters specifically
Rishi Sunak: 27%
Liz Truss: 23%
Boris Johnson: 19%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1801643315336528318?t=yRb1UyipJzAJET3NRH04Yw&s=190 -
Scotland still better placed than the Tories though0
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Given how much the Tories have dropped in the last few months, *and* in the last days? Yes, I have thought about it.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.0 -
It's an interesting one.PedestrianRock said:As someone who is likely to hold a lot of trading bets when the exit poll comes out, what do people normally do at that moment?
This is my first time being really involved at this scale - from memory there’s a huge odds fluctuation at 10pm.
Do you ever see people in the know betting large sums at 9:59pm?
You find out now
.
I got caught not having a clear OUT in 2017 having called Theresa May the wrong way on the spreads.
A touch expensive, and swallowed a number of previous months of profit.0 -
I'm worried about my Scotland - CON accumulator now12
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Pretty fucked up all round.
The Trump campaign's response to the Supreme Court's bump stocks decision ignores that Trump admin imposed the ban.
Karoline Leavitt: "President Trump has been and always will be a fierce defender of Americans' second amendment rights and he is proud to be endorsed by the NRA"
https://x.com/migold/status/18016286859397162072 -
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.boulay said:
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.1 -
4% of the Scotch population have travelled to Munich to see Scotland beaten 12-nil
That’s Scotland’s history in a nutsack, really1 -
Give it a few months… (Nations league in the autumn)Penddu2 said:
We couldn't beat a rock - but at least we weren't beaten by a supermarket. Twice.wooliedyed said:Is that Gibraltar vs Wales match still going on? Have Wales scored yet?
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Plassey was 1757...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
At least they haven’t got to worry about getting proxy votes0
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I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
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It was a choice. At the time we could have diverted huge military resources to the war but we considered that we couldn’t do war in a serious way against people we thought were “us” and brutalise “our own” but also that there were other possessions, especially in the Caribbean that were more important economically and so the risk of reducing their defences to shift troops and ships to win in the colonies wasn’t a good choice.Nigelb said:
It wasn’t a choice, though, was it.boulay said:
It was the correct choice.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:
And India was kind of a private sector thing.
So we did have a choice.0 -
You think he'll hand over to Rachel Reeves then?Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
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That’s just rationalisation.boulay said:
It was a choice. At the time we could have diverted huge military resources to the war but we considered that we couldn’t do war in a serious way against people we thought were “us” and brutalise “our own” but also that there were other possessions, especially in the Caribbean that were more important economically and so the risk of reducing their defences to shift troops and ships to win in the colonies wasn’t a good choice.Nigelb said:
It wasn’t a choice, though, was it.boulay said:
It was the correct choice.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:
And India was kind of a private sector thing.
So we did have a choice.
We tried; we failed.0 -
Scotland out and England doing infuriatingly well (and banging on about it) would be the perfect combination for SNP to outperform in July.1
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...
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Scotland out, England on fire and the good folk of Banff wake to Dougies cheesy grinning fizzog on July 5.TimS said:Scotland out and England doing infuriatingly well (and banging on about it) would be the perfect combination for SNP to outperform in July.
There will be riots on the streets of Fraserburgh0 -
Private battle.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Plassey was 1757...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.2 -
I thought so at first as he got the ball, but the out of control studs of his left foot to the ankle sealed his fate.Sandpit said:That’s a harsh red card.
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I think he has it in him to be quite a long-serving PM. He'll perhaps be the most pragmatic PM we've ever had. He's managed to make himself PM (it seems) by working with the rabble that are his party. It's impressive. The problem is his party.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
'Rabble' of course being a kinder term than can currently be applied to any other party.0 -
Scotland are damn lucky we allow them to be part of the United Kingdom of Mighty England and some other bits
All they do is lose, whine and then export midges3 -
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.TimS said:
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.boulay said:
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.0 -
Dusk songs: On the fast section of the A629 northbound as it passes Penistone into the treelined section towards Ingbirchworth roundabout on an October evening.boulay said:
Every so often I feel a strange urge to listen to Del Amitri, Waking hours in full. Only ever in autumn or winter. I’ve no idea why, I like it but not like other groups I listen to full albums by. Maybe it’s a good album or maybe it’s just associated with a time and place. Aztec Camera is just one song that gets played a lot at parties and is a classic, the Frattelis Chelsea Dagger is one of the most overplayed ordinary songs .Tweedledee said:
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.biggles said:
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.Mexicanpete said:...
Is that a good omen?wooliedyed said:C'mon Ally's Army!
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
Not for any particularly personal reason, you understand, but Be My Downfall, which was that distance into the greatest hits, is forever set in that copse and that bus stop in my mind.0 -
@woodstockjag
Sam Matterface is very annoying.
There is not “an inquest going on already for Scotland”.
It’s called a Fatal Accident Inquiry.4 -
....
Not really.Sandpit said:That’s a harsh red card.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.1 -
Not in most polls.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.2 -
Well he will be 66 then.SandyRentool said:
You think he'll hand over to Rachel Reeves then?Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I expect it will be difficult to fight a second election without a clear successor lined up.0 -
Many a slipFoxy said:
Not in most polls.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
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His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.turbotubbs said:
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28%
Lab 30%
Green 10%
Reform 10%
LDs 14%
SNP 5%
Plaid 1%
Others 2%
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Again ignoring the fact that Sunak was a key member of the Johnson administration for almost all of its time in office, first briefly as Chief Secretary to the Treasury and then as Chancellor. Starmer was not, as far as I know, a member of the Johnson Government.boulay said:
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.TimS said:
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.boulay said:
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.1 -
Even Dickhead Keane agrees. Red red red. No doubt.Mexicanpete said:....
Not really.Sandpit said:That’s a harsh red card.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.1 -
Just seen the score. How many are Germany going to get?0
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Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.Mexicanpete said:....
Not really.Sandpit said:That’s a harsh red card.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.0 -
And then only for 90 years. Or was it 89?Richard_Tyndall said:
Private battle.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Plassey was 1757...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.1 -
Chortle.Omnium said:
I think he has it in him to be quite a long-serving PM. He'll perhaps be the most pragmatic PM we've ever had.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
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Insofar as I have a mental image of DavidL, it's pre-force-lightning Palpatine, around the time of The Phantom Menace. This is made more compelling by the fact that in that film Ian McDiarmid just muted his natural Scottish accent a bit, and didn't go full-on heh-heh-heh until two films later.boulay said:…
Come on Scotland. For Malc, Farooq, TheUnionDivie, Carnyx, Burgessian, Rochdale (lol) and any Scots posters I’ve missed. And most of all for Gordon Brown, may a little happiness finally enter your life. Just remembered DavidL, sorry, I keep thinking you are English.
Also followed by a line of ducklings, of course... 👍0 -
Chortles are all very well, but do elaborate.Casino_Royale said:
Chortle.Omnium said:
I think he has it in him to be quite a long-serving PM. He'll perhaps be the most pragmatic PM we've ever had.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
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It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.Foxy said:
Not in most polls.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
But you know I'm right.0 -
Ouch.Scott_xP said:@woodstockjag
Sam Matterface is very annoying.
There is not “an inquest going on already for Scotland”.
It’s called a Fatal Accident Inquiry.0 -
Big distinction without a difference energy here, we are talking about the same elites wearing very slightly different hats. Frinstance Sir Ed Pellew/Lord Exmouth came back from being Admiral in charge of the Indian Ocean with 30 million in today earth pounds in presents from HEIC.Richard_Tyndall said:
Private battle.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Plassey was 1757...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.0 -
Nonsense, Sunak is the best Prime Minister ever, and he's gonna turn things round and get a thumping Tory majority!Casino_Royale said:
Chortle.Omnium said:
I think he has it in him to be quite a long-serving PM. He'll perhaps be the most pragmatic PM we've ever had.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
0 -
@Clutch_Brompton
I just went and collected my first Brompton. Happy days.
(Coming soon - latest Ashfield placard report.)2 -
I'd be interested to see your workings there.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Going from the wikipedia table:
Techne -1 (44 to 43)
YouGov -4 (41 to 37)
R+W flat (42 to 42)
WeThink -2 (45 to 43)
Whitestone -1 (42 to 41)
BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.2 -
Prediction - not that many more. Tournament football so get the win and then avoid using up too much energy, getting injured. Many a game like this ends at full time with the halftime score.Andy_JS said:Just seen the score. How many are Germany going to get?
1 -
No, it wouldn't. Dangerous play is dangerous play. You end careers doing that.Foxy said:
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.Mexicanpete said:....
Not really.Sandpit said:That’s a harsh red card.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.1 -
I just think it's a hilarious post.Omnium said:
Chortles are all very well, but do elaborate.Casino_Royale said:
Chortle.Omnium said:
I think he has it in him to be quite a long-serving PM. He'll perhaps be the most pragmatic PM we've ever had.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
0 -
Did Johnson really have an ideology beyond a vague boosterism and a penchant for spaffing public funds on plans for unrealistic infrastructure?boulay said:
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.TimS said:
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.boulay said:
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
1 -
If 30% support Reform and 15% Tory, you have a Reform/Tory government with Farage as PM.darkage said:The limit for Reform is Nigel Farage. He can go a long way but probably has an ultimate limit of 30% ish of people who will consider voting for him. I don't think the 'challenger right wing party' will ultimately be led by him.
0 -
I do have to listen to certain albums in full such as Waking Hours but I find they are largely from teenage years - I guess it’s because at that time there wasn’t the internet and Spotify and we didn’t have tv at school really so you would play albums and find that different albums were for certain moods or created certain moods.Tweedledee said:
1. I hate Chelsea Dagger. Whistle for the Choir, Look out Sunshine, Lupe Brown, are the point.boulay said:
Every so often I feel a strange urge to listen to Del Amitri, Waking hours in full. Only ever in autumn or winter. I’ve no idea why, I like it but not like other groups I listen to full albums by. Maybe it’s a good album or maybe it’s just associated with a time and place. Aztec Camera is just one song that gets played a lot at parties and is a classic, the Frattelis Chelsea Dagger is one of the most overplayed ordinary songs .Tweedledee said:
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.biggles said:
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.Mexicanpete said:...
Is that a good omen?wooliedyed said:C'mon Ally's Army!
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
2. Waking Hours is pretty much flawless, let down only by Nothing Ever Happens, which itself is only let down by its over popularity. Stone Cold Sober Is a top 20 of all time song.
3. Aztec Camera - I had to spend a night in Glasgow a bit ago in a grotty holiday inn by a coach station which made me sad till I realised that I was on KILLERMONT STREET. They bat a bit deeper than SIMH.
I love my autumn/winter albums such as Waking Hours, Disintegration. fisherman’s Blues, Ten, The best of the Beatles, the summer albums such as Soul II Soul club Classics, Good Morning Vietnam soundtrack. Not all serious but it’s really easy to just flip from song to song now and not enjoy albums.1 -
-
Though with Scotland at 10 men, and the Germans wanting to set out their stall 5 or 6 nil wouldn't surprise me.turbotubbs said:
Prediction - not that many more. Tournament football so get the win and then avoid using up too much energy, getting injured. Many a game like this ends at full time with the halftime score.Andy_JS said:Just seen the score. How many are Germany going to get?
0 -
I was reading about the East Indies/Indian campaigns of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars only today. Apaprently the RN officers had 20 per cent knocked off their pay in charges for conversion locally, but that was more than made up for by "donations" from Hon Company - even the ordinary sailors benefited by the sending of free food.Tweedledee said:
Big distinction without a difference energy here, we are talking about the same elites wearing very slightly different hats. Frinstance Sir Ed Pellew/Lord Exmouth came back from being Admiral in charge of the Indian Ocean with 30 million in today earth pounds in presents from HEIC.Richard_Tyndall said:
Private battle.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Plassey was 1757...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.0 -
I agree, but letter of the law is studs on ankle red card. Shin pads and no cards back in our day!Foxy said:
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.Mexicanpete said:....
Not really.Sandpit said:That’s a harsh red card.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.0 -
Fair enough.Casino_Royale said:
I just think it's a hilarious post.Omnium said:
Chortles are all very well, but do elaborate.Casino_Royale said:
Chortle.Omnium said:
I think he has it in him to be quite a long-serving PM. He'll perhaps be the most pragmatic PM we've ever had.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
0 -
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.Stuartinromford said:
I'd be interested to see your workings there.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Going from the wikipedia table:
Techne -1 (44 to 43)
YouGov -4 (41 to 37)
R+W flat (42 to 42)
WeThink -2 (45 to 43)
Whitestone -1 (42 to 41)
BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
You know the polling. And that three polls have put them in the 30s in the last week: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.0 -
@Richard_Tyndall got there before me but this is the thing. There is huge continuity between the administrations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak. They are not different administrations. It’s a convenient fiction that attempts to wipe the slate clean.boulay said:
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.TimS said:
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.boulay said:
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
There was an actual break in administration and ideology between Cameron and Johnson, with May the transitional PM, such that you could argue they really were different parties. And Johnson won an election with the mandate that brings. But since then it’s just been court intrigue within a single party of government that needs to be judged on the totality of its term of office, not just the time since November 2022.2 -
I thought the NRA were on the skids?Nigelb said:Pretty fucked up all round.
The Trump campaign's response to the Supreme Court's bump stocks decision ignores that Trump admin imposed the ban.
Karoline Leavitt: "President Trump has been and always will be a fierce defender of Americans' second amendment rights and he is proud to be endorsed by the NRA"
https://x.com/migold/status/1801628685939716207
Legal decision iirc?
(Checking wiki, a lorra-lorra legal decisions, to the extent that I am not going to dig further.)0 -
Thanks, I was going to put a bet on 6-0, but it might not be a good idea. (Not really a football fan).turbotubbs said:
Prediction - not that many more. Tournament football so get the win and then avoid using up too much energy, getting injured. Many a game like this ends at full time with the halftime score.Andy_JS said:Just seen the score. How many are Germany going to get?
0 -
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?Stuartinromford said:
I'd be interested to see your workings there.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Going from the wikipedia table:
Techne -1 (44 to 43)
YouGov -4 (41 to 37)
R+W flat (42 to 42)
WeThink -2 (45 to 43)
Whitestone -1 (42 to 41)
BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.2 -
The point being that at the time of Plassey and, slightly later, the American Revolution, Great Britain did not have vast armies in India that could have been used to supress the North American rebellion. Those Indian armies were mostly native forces, raised by the East India Company and officered by Britons who would later transfer into regular posts in the British Army. They were funded by wealthy Indian Merchant Banker families.Tweedledee said:
Big distinction without a difference energy here, we are talking about the same elites wearing very slightly different hats. Frinstance Sir Ed Pellew/Lord Exmouth came back from being Admiral in charge of the Indian Ocean with 30 million in today earth pounds in presents from HEIC.Richard_Tyndall said:
Private battle.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Plassey was 1757...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.boulay said:
Or 1776.TheScreamingEagles said:
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.0 -
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.Casino_Royale said:
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.turbotubbs said:
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28%
Lab 30%
Green 10%
Reform 10%
LDs 14%
SNP 5%
Plaid 1%
Others 2%1 -
My only worry is that my betting position is best on Con 26%+ and 150+ seats.Casino_Royale said:
It's making you think too much: I get it, it's worrying.Foxy said:
Not in most polls.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
But you know I'm right.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.0 -
You're omitting the LDs up to 2015, of course. But remembering that only strengthens your point.TimS said:
@Richard_Tyndall got there before me but this is the thing. There is huge continuity between the administrations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak. They are not different administrations. It’s a convenient fiction that attempts to wipe the slate clean.boulay said:
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.TimS said:
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.boulay said:
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
There was an actual break in administration and ideology between Cameron and Johnson, with May the transitional PM, such that you could argue they really were different parties. And Johnson won an election with the mandate that brings. But since then it’s just been court intrigue within a single party of government that needs to be judged on the totality of its term of office, not just the time since November 2022.0 -
The way things are going they'll be making things down soon.Chris said:
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?Stuartinromford said:
I'd be interested to see your workings there.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Going from the wikipedia table:
Techne -1 (44 to 43)
YouGov -4 (41 to 37)
R+W flat (42 to 42)
WeThink -2 (45 to 43)
Whitestone -1 (42 to 41)
BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.0 -
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.boulay said:
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.TimS said:
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.boulay said:
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.eek said:
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.1 -
After the last five years I’m afraid to predict much beyond the next fortnight tbh.Mexicanpete said:
If it cheers you up Casino, why not? I suspect it's too early to tell, especially as Labour haven't won yet.Casino_Royale said:
His lead is sheer fluff, and he isn't even as popular as David Cameron before 2020. It's made up of voters purely interested in ejecting the Tories.turbotubbs said:
I think he might fight the next election and end up with a coalition.Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28%
Lab 30%
Green 10%
Reform 10%
LDs 14%
SNP 5%
Plaid 1%
Others 2%2 -
Even if I liked Farage and Reform's policies I'd never vote for him because he wouldn't be able to enact them.Andy_JS said:
If 30% support Reform and 15% Tory, you have a Reform/Tory government with Farage as PM.darkage said:The limit for Reform is Nigel Farage. He can go a long way but probably has an ultimate limit of 30% ish of people who will consider voting for him. I don't think the 'challenger right wing party' will ultimately be led by him.
You need to be a good team manager and skilled at organisation to get things done in politics, and build political alliances and coalitions domestically and internationally.
Farage can't do this - instead we'd get a lot of bloviated grandstanding in Parliament whilst nothing changed and he'd quit in a strop after 4 months - so what's the point?3 -
"There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!" - Comical Ali.Casino_Royale said:
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.Stuartinromford said:
I'd be interested to see your workings there.Casino_Royale said:
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.Foxy said:
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..Casino_Royale said:Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
Going from the wikipedia table:
Techne -1 (44 to 43)
YouGov -4 (41 to 37)
R+W flat (42 to 42)
WeThink -2 (45 to 43)
Whitestone -1 (42 to 41)
BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
You know the polling. And that three polls have put them in the 30s in the last week: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.1
This discussion has been closed.