When political betting can get you into trouble – politicalbetting.com

MightyAlex said:

turbotubbs said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

darkage said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

tlg86 said:

In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.

Check this

Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z


https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.

There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.

So how, then, can we explain why it is different now?
If it's different now why should it be the same in the future?
The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?

Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.

As you perceive it.
So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?

Young people will look for radical alternatives to the current system, they will eventuallyj get attracted to the 'right' because of reactive dynamics. The thing that makes this more likely in my view is the 'right' is forbidden, outlawed through hate speech laws, lectured about in schools, people being sent to prison on dubious charges, etc. All this just makes it more and more attractive. It is what has happened in Europe and it will be likely to happen in the UK.

Simply saying that it is likely they will become so, does not explain why it isn't the case thus far.
The Right has been the dominant narrative in UK politics for 45 years.
Hate speech, well. Being an arsehole is frowned upon, yes.
Absolutely no one is lectured about politics in schools. There's zero space in a bullshit curriculum of nonsense of little relevance to the modern world.
Yes young people will look for radical alternatives, but they are of the Left overwhelmingly in comparison to other comparable nations right here, right now.
So. I ask again. Why is that?

I have met a few Gen Z via my younger son (who will vote LD) who are Communists, even to the point of liking Stalin and Mao. Not students either, one is a chef.

I didn't start an argument, but his idea of what life under Communism was like is seriously mis-informed. The Iron Curtain fell a dozen years before he was born, so just history from a book, or more likely TikTok. Nice lad in other ways and good housemate of Foxjr2.

I find it horrifying that people can find anything good in the legacy of Stalin or Mao. How many millions of deaths because of them?

The development of an economic and scientific super power in roughly half a century.

mwadams said:

HYUFD said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).

I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.

The Thatcher and Major administrations did.

I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.

Starmer has ensured the NEC is just as centralised in terms of Labour candidates shortlists, see their imposition of their own candidates in Chingford and Brighton Kemptown over local Labour parties choices

The first problem with both main parties is that you used to have people who had a career in something else and then moved into politics in their 40s or 50s. Now we have too many people where politics is a job for life so they go PPE at Oxbridge - SPAD - MP. The second problem with both parties is that by centralising selections the types of people who get picked tend to be well-connected middle-class people from London, who then get foisted on provincial seats and have no real affinity with them.

Cameron, Clegg, the Milibands, Hague largely followed that course, as did Portillo (except he read history not PPE). May read geography and then went to the Bank of England.

Rishi though was in finance for a number of years after PPE, Hunt and Truss and Reeves in business after PPE (Reeves also like May at the Bank of England). Starmer read law not PPE and was a barrister and head of the CPS, Blair also read law and was a barrister first as was Michael Howard. Boris read classics and was a journalist first not a SPAD. Brown read history and was a college lecturer.

Farage and Corbyn never even graduated from university of course and neither were SPADs, Farage worked in the city and Corbyn was a trade union rep and local councillor before election as an MP. IDS was a non graduate as well and in the army first

When you look at Thatcher's first cabinet, it is an interesting mix of soldiers (both WW2 and post-WW2), lawyers, business (tending towards business rather than 'finance'). And far more Cambridge graduates than Oxford PPE types. 😀

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Some other interesting details from the YouGov crosstabs:

Reform are ahead of the Tories among:
- Under 50s
- Men
- 2016 Leavers
- English and Welsh voters
- Midlands and London voters

Tories are ahead of Reform among:
- Over 65s
- Women
- 2016 Remainers
- Scottish voters
- Northern and Rest of South voters

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Sky_VI_240611.pdf

Tories are ahead of Reform in England and in Scotland, Reform ahead of the Tories in Wales.

I've corrected the post.

I think Reform being ahead in London perhaps says something significant.

LDs are second overall to Labour in London with Yougov though, Reform will pick up the populist right outer London vote that voted for Susan Hall.

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

darkage said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

tlg86 said:

In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.

Check this

Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z


https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.

There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.

So how, then, can we explain why it is different now?
If it's different now why should it be the same in the future?
The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?

Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.

As you perceive it.
So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?

Young people will look for radical alternatives to the current system, they will eventuallyj get attracted to the 'right' because of reactive dynamics. The thing that makes this more likely in my view is the 'right' is forbidden, outlawed through hate speech laws, lectured about in schools, people being sent to prison on dubious charges, etc. All this just makes it more and more attractive. It is what has happened in Europe and it will be likely to happen in the UK.

Simply saying that it is likely they will become so, does not explain why it isn't the case thus far.
The Right has been the dominant narrative in UK politics for 45 years.
Hate speech, well. Being an arsehole is frowned upon, yes.
Absolutely no one is lectured about politics in schools. There's zero space in a bullshit curriculum of nonsense of little relevance to the modern world.
Yes young people will look for radical alternatives, but they are of the Left overwhelmingly in comparison to other comparable nations right here, right now.
So. I ask again. Why is that?

I have met a few Gen Z via my younger son (who will vote LD) who are Communists, even to the point of liking Stalin and Mao. Not students either, one is a chef.

I didn't start an argument, but his idea of what life under Communism was like is seriously mis-informed. The Iron Curtain fell a dozen years before he was born, so just history from a book, or more likely TikTok. Nice lad in other ways and good housemate of Foxjr2.

I find it horrifying that people can find anything good in the legacy of Stalin or Mao. How many millions of deaths because of them?

I don't think I was ever taught anything about Mao, Marx, etc in school. A bit about Lenin and that Stalin, he was the bloke who led the Russian and he was on our side....Then it was pretty much British history, Empire, slaves, etc.

I think there is a large collective blindspot to the fact the Hitler / Nazi's aren't the only super baddies in history.

It's TikTok and YouTube I expect.

Though a bit more world perspective in the history at school would be better

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

darkage said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

tlg86 said:

In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.

Check this

Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z


https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.

There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.

So how, then, can we explain why it is different now?
If it's different now why should it be the same in the future?
The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?

Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.

As you perceive it.
So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?

Young people will look for radical alternatives to the current system, they will eventuallyj get attracted to the 'right' because of reactive dynamics. The thing that makes this more likely in my view is the 'right' is forbidden, outlawed through hate speech laws, lectured about in schools, people being sent to prison on dubious charges, etc. All this just makes it more and more attractive. It is what has happened in Europe and it will be likely to happen in the UK.

Simply saying that it is likely they will become so, does not explain why it isn't the case thus far.
The Right has been the dominant narrative in UK politics for 45 years.
Hate speech, well. Being an arsehole is frowned upon, yes.
Absolutely no one is lectured about politics in schools. There's zero space in a bullshit curriculum of nonsense of little relevance to the modern world.
Yes young people will look for radical alternatives, but they are of the Left overwhelmingly in comparison to other comparable nations right here, right now.
So. I ask again. Why is that?

I have met a few Gen Z via my younger son (who will vote LD) who are Communists, even to the point of liking Stalin and Mao. Not students either, one is a chef.

I didn't start an argument, but his idea of what life under Communism was like is seriously mis-informed. The Iron Curtain fell a dozen years before he was born, so just history from a book, or more likely TikTok. Nice lad in other ways and good housemate of Foxjr2.

I find it horrifying that people can find anything good in the legacy of Stalin or Mao. How many millions of deaths because of them?

I don't think I was ever taught anything about Mao, Marx, etc in school. A bit about Lenin and that Stalin, he was the bloke who led the Russian and he was on our side....Then it was pretty much British history, Empire, slaves, etc.

I think there is a large collective blindspot to the fact the Hitler / Nazi's aren't the only super baddies in history.

It's TikTok and YouTube I expect.

Though a bit more world perspective in the history at school would be better

Schools should spend much more time examining and exploring modern history and geopolitics and much less time mithering on about ancient kings.

HYUFD said:

@RedfieldWilton
Reform leads by 44% among those who primarily get their TV news from GB News.

Westminster VI, GB News Viewers (7-10 June):

Reform UK 60%
Conservative 16%
Labour 13%
Liberal Democrat 1%
Other 4%
Don't Know 5%
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800927355440902395

mwadams said:

HYUFD said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).

I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.

The Thatcher and Major administrations did.

I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.

Starmer has ensured the NEC is just as centralised in terms of Labour candidates shortlists, see their imposition of their own candidates in Chingford and Brighton Kemptown over local Labour parties choices

The first problem with both main parties is that you used to have people who had a career in something else and then moved into politics in their 40s or 50s. Now we have too many people where politics is a job for life so they go PPE at Oxbridge - SPAD - MP. The second problem with both parties is that by centralising selections the types of people who get picked tend to be well-connected middle-class people from London, who then get foisted on provincial seats and have no real affinity with them.

Cameron, Clegg, the Milibands, Hague largely followed that course, as did Portillo (except he read history not PPE). May read geography and then went to the Bank of England.

Rishi though was in finance for a number of years after PPE, Hunt and Truss and Reeves in business after PPE (Reeves also like May at the Bank of England). Starmer read law not PPE and was a barrister and head of the CPS, Blair also read law and was a barrister first as was Michael Howard. Boris read classics and was a journalist first not a SPAD. Brown read history and was a college lecturer.

Farage and Corbyn never even graduated from university of course and neither were SPADs, Farage worked in the city and Corbyn was a trade union rep and local councillor before election as an MP. IDS was a non graduate as well and in the army first

When you look at Thatcher's first cabinet, it is an interesting mix of soldiers (both WW2 and post-WW2), lawyers, business (tending towards business rather than 'finance'). And far more Cambridge graduates than Oxford PPE types. 😀

FrancisUrquhart said:

In North Ormesby, the part of Middlesbrough where Aiden lives, around 95 in every 100 crimes last year went unsolved.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7227ve4e9yo

Another challenge for Starmer. Its very hard to attract businesses to an area if basically crime has become legalised.

There is virtually no talk in this GE campaign about all the low level crime of shoplifting, stealing phones, bikes etc, and of course the youth stabbing, including the 12 year old murderer the other day.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Partly as a result of Labour’s refusal to take electoral chances, the party’s manifesto will not contain any promises it has not previously announced.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/13/keir-starmer-uk-election-labour-manifesto

biggles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

darkage said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

tlg86 said:

In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.

Check this

Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z


https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.

There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.

So how, then, can we explain why it is different now?
If it's different now why should it be the same in the future?
The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?

Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.

As you perceive it.
So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?

Young people will look for radical alternatives to the current system, they will eventuallyj get attracted to the 'right' because of reactive dynamics. The thing that makes this more likely in my view is the 'right' is forbidden, outlawed through hate speech laws, lectured about in schools, people being sent to prison on dubious charges, etc. All this just makes it more and more attractive. It is what has happened in Europe and it will be likely to happen in the UK.

Simply saying that it is likely they will become so, does not explain why it isn't the case thus far.
The Right has been the dominant narrative in UK politics for 45 years.
Hate speech, well. Being an arsehole is frowned upon, yes.
Absolutely no one is lectured about politics in schools. There's zero space in a bullshit curriculum of nonsense of little relevance to the modern world.
Yes young people will look for radical alternatives, but they are of the Left overwhelmingly in comparison to other comparable nations right here, right now.
So. I ask again. Why is that?

I have met a few Gen Z via my younger son (who will vote LD) who are Communists, even to the point of liking Stalin and Mao. Not students either, one is a chef.

I didn't start an argument, but his idea of what life under Communism was like is seriously mis-informed. The Iron Curtain fell a dozen years before he was born, so just history from a book, or more likely TikTok. Nice lad in other ways and good housemate of Foxjr2.

I find it horrifying that people can find anything good in the legacy of Stalin or Mao. How many millions of deaths because of them?

I don't think I was ever taught anything about Mao, Marx, etc in school. A bit about Lenin and that Stalin, he was the bloke who led the Russian and he was on our side....Then it was pretty much British history, Empire, slaves, etc.

I think there is a large collective blindspot to the fact the Hitler / Nazi's aren't the only super baddies in history.

I didn’t need to be taught about the evils of communism or fascism from school. My grandparents were born in the 1910s and 20s, and my parents in the 50s. I was born in the (early) 1980s. It was self-evident. The first or hand experience is starting to fade. That’s a problem.

Andy_JS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

In North Ormesby, the part of Middlesbrough where Aiden lives, around 95 in every 100 crimes last year went unsolved.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7227ve4e9yo

Another challenge for Starmer. Its very hard to attract businesses to an area if basically crime has become legalised.

There is virtually no talk in this GE campaign about all the low level crime of shoplifting, stealing phones, bikes etc, and of course the youth stabbing, including the 12 year old murderer the other day.

San Francisco and Middlesbrough don't have much in common, but this seems to be one thing they do.

williamglenn said:

mwadams said:

HYUFD said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).

I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.

The Thatcher and Major administrations did.

I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.

Starmer has ensured the NEC is just as centralised in terms of Labour candidates shortlists, see their imposition of their own candidates in Chingford and Brighton Kemptown over local Labour parties choices

The first problem with both main parties is that you used to have people who had a career in something else and then moved into politics in their 40s or 50s. Now we have too many people where politics is a job for life so they go PPE at Oxbridge - SPAD - MP. The second problem with both parties is that by centralising selections the types of people who get picked tend to be well-connected middle-class people from London, who then get foisted on provincial seats and have no real affinity with them.

Cameron, Clegg, the Milibands, Hague largely followed that course, as did Portillo (except he read history not PPE). May read geography and then went to the Bank of England.

Rishi though was in finance for a number of years after PPE, Hunt and Truss and Reeves in business after PPE (Reeves also like May at the Bank of England). Starmer read law not PPE and was a barrister and head of the CPS, Blair also read law and was a barrister first as was Michael Howard. Boris read classics and was a journalist first not a SPAD. Brown read history and was a college lecturer.

Farage and Corbyn never even graduated from university of course and neither were SPADs, Farage worked in the city and Corbyn was a trade union rep and local councillor before election as an MP. IDS was a non graduate as well and in the army first

When you look at Thatcher's first cabinet, it is an interesting mix of soldiers (both WW2 and post-WW2), lawyers, business (tending towards business rather than 'finance'). And far more Cambridge graduates than Oxford PPE types. 😀

Thatcher could draw on plenty of people who'd thought deeply about the problems facing Britain under the post-war consensus.

This is what's been missing over the last 14 years. The central question that Cameron and his generation were concerned with solving was electoral rather than political, and the ultimate legacy of this has been to make the political problems worse while leaving the party unelectable.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

In North Ormesby, the part of Middlesbrough where Aiden lives, around 95 in every 100 crimes last year went unsolved.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7227ve4e9yo

Another challenge for Starmer. Its very hard to attract businesses to an area if basically crime has become legalised.

There is virtually no talk in this GE campaign about all the low level crime of shoplifting, stealing phones, bikes etc, and of course the youth stabbing, including the 12 year old murderer the other day.

San Francisco and Middlesbrough don't have much in common, but this seems to be one thing they do.

What people fail to realize is that it the Three Strikes Policy in California has made crime massively worse. The police don't want to prosecute third offenses for people because (a) they always go to trial no matter how overwhelming the evidence is, and (b) juries keep refusing to send shoplifters to jail for life.

It is absolutely infuriating that politicians are unable to sit back and go "whoah... something isn't working here..."

Hold on, but you don't get more than the equivalent of a parking ticket for nicking < $800. I thought three strikes were only for things that aren't misdemeanors? Or am I getting this wrong?

dixiedean said:

dixiedean said:

Went through a cupboard in my classroom today.
Found a 100 page life skills text book from 2005.
It was all about paying tax, buying a house, renting, how mortgages work, bank accounts, etc.
The kind of stuff folk (particularly SEN kids) need to know.
Each double page had some text, then an explanation, then some exercises based on the real world.
In the appendix, every single page was linked to the year 7, 8 and 9 literacy and numeracy curriculum.
The curriculum dumped by Gove in favour of
novels, clock time and "traditional" English and Maths.

It also had how to register as homeless, claim benefits, apply for a job, make a doctor's appointment, register with a dentist, etc.
Made me really sad as to what we are teaching.
And why.
Critical race theory was nowhere to be seen amazingly.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Eabhal said:

Possibly some sort of medical emergency on the ISS.

It was a simulation.

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1801040197296996782

Andy_JS said:

turbotubbs said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

darkage said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

tlg86 said:

In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.

Check this

Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z


https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.

There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.

So how, then, can we explain why it is different now?
If it's different now why should it be the same in the future?
The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?

Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.

As you perceive it.
So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?

Young people will look for radical alternatives to the current system, they will eventuallyj get attracted to the 'right' because of reactive dynamics. The thing that makes this more likely in my view is the 'right' is forbidden, outlawed through hate speech laws, lectured about in schools, people being sent to prison on dubious charges, etc. All this just makes it more and more attractive. It is what has happened in Europe and it will be likely to happen in the UK.

Simply saying that it is likely they will become so, does not explain why it isn't the case thus far.
The Right has been the dominant narrative in UK politics for 45 years.
Hate speech, well. Being an arsehole is frowned upon, yes.
Absolutely no one is lectured about politics in schools. There's zero space in a bullshit curriculum of nonsense of little relevance to the modern world.
Yes young people will look for radical alternatives, but they are of the Left overwhelmingly in comparison to other comparable nations right here, right now.
So. I ask again. Why is that?

I have met a few Gen Z via my younger son (who will vote LD) who are Communists, even to the point of liking Stalin and Mao. Not students either, one is a chef.

I didn't start an argument, but his idea of what life under Communism was like is seriously mis-informed. The Iron Curtain fell a dozen years before he was born, so just history from a book, or more likely TikTok. Nice lad in other ways and good housemate of Foxjr2.

I find it horrifying that people can find anything good in the legacy of Stalin or Mao. How many millions of deaths because of them?

"Mao's policies were responsible for a vast number of deaths, with estimates ranging from 40 to 80 million victims due to starvation, persecution, prison labour, and mass executions, and his government has been described as totalitarian."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong

"In 2011, after assessing twenty years of historical research in Eastern European archives, American historian Timothy D. Snyder stated that Stalin deliberately killed about 6 million, which rise to 9 million if foreseeable deaths arising from policies are taken into account.[76][77] American historian William D. Rubinstein concluded that, even under most conservative estimates, Stalin was responsible for the deaths of at least 7 million people, or about 4.2% of USSRs total population.[78]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excess_mortality_in_the_Soviet_Union_under_Joseph_Stalin

Andy_JS said:

Heathener said:

People Polling drops

Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17

https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604

Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago

Oh, this explains it, my previous comment. Weird-looking poll, to put it mildly.

Labour are now averaging 41% in the polls, the same share that one Jeremy Corbyn received overall for Labour in 2017 (Great Britain in both cases, not UK).

biggles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

darkage said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

tlg86 said:

In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.

Check this

Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z


https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.

There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.

So how, then, can we explain why it is different now?
If it's different now why should it be the same in the future?
The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?

Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.

As you perceive it.
So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?

Young people will look for radical alternatives to the current system, they will eventuallyj get attracted to the 'right' because of reactive dynamics. The thing that makes this more likely in my view is the 'right' is forbidden, outlawed through hate speech laws, lectured about in schools, people being sent to prison on dubious charges, etc. All this just makes it more and more attractive. It is what has happened in Europe and it will be likely to happen in the UK.

Simply saying that it is likely they will become so, does not explain why it isn't the case thus far.
The Right has been the dominant narrative in UK politics for 45 years.
Hate speech, well. Being an arsehole is frowned upon, yes.
Absolutely no one is lectured about politics in schools. There's zero space in a bullshit curriculum of nonsense of little relevance to the modern world.
Yes young people will look for radical alternatives, but they are of the Left overwhelmingly in comparison to other comparable nations right here, right now.
So. I ask again. Why is that?

I have met a few Gen Z via my younger son (who will vote LD) who are Communists, even to the point of liking Stalin and Mao. Not students either, one is a chef.

I didn't start an argument, but his idea of what life under Communism was like is seriously mis-informed. The Iron Curtain fell a dozen years before he was born, so just history from a book, or more likely TikTok. Nice lad in other ways and good housemate of Foxjr2.

I find it horrifying that people can find anything good in the legacy of Stalin or Mao. How many millions of deaths because of them?

I don't think I was ever taught anything about Mao, Marx, etc in school. A bit about Lenin and that Stalin, he was the bloke who led the Russian and he was on our side....Then it was pretty much British history, Empire, slaves, etc.

I think there is a large collective blindspot to the fact the Hitler / Nazi's aren't the only super baddies in history.

I didn’t need to be taught about the evils of communism or fascism from school. My grandparents were born in the 1910s and 20s, and my parents in the 50s. I was born in the (early) 1980s. It was self-evident. The first or hand experience is starting to fade. That’s a problem.

Taz said:

Cyclist jailed for injuring pedestrian.

I just wonder why this law could not have been used in the demented cyclist who mowed down and killed an old lady in London recently

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx88g1v8en7o

Roger said:

bigjohnowls said:

Anabobazina said:

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

Starmer smashes it.

64% - 36%

Great job.

But if that’s representative, then it’s all Sunak needs….

He only needs to lose a debate by a 2-1 margin?

He only needs to get a decent chunk of 36% of voters to think he’s worth their vote….

The rest don’t matter to him.

His only strategy now is to eat into Reform and hope Labour dips a bit more.

Eh? Just because 64% said Starmer won doesn’t mean 64% will vote for him!

Was there a "they're both c**ts" option?

Prize for the most moronic post of the last two days. You must have misplaced the link to Guido's

williamglenn said:

mwadams said:

HYUFD said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).

I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.

The Thatcher and Major administrations did.

I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.

Starmer has ensured the NEC is just as centralised in terms of Labour candidates shortlists, see their imposition of their own candidates in Chingford and Brighton Kemptown over local Labour parties choices

The first problem with both main parties is that you used to have people who had a career in something else and then moved into politics in their 40s or 50s. Now we have too many people where politics is a job for life so they go PPE at Oxbridge - SPAD - MP. The second problem with both parties is that by centralising selections the types of people who get picked tend to be well-connected middle-class people from London, who then get foisted on provincial seats and have no real affinity with them.

Cameron, Clegg, the Milibands, Hague largely followed that course, as did Portillo (except he read history not PPE). May read geography and then went to the Bank of England.

Rishi though was in finance for a number of years after PPE, Hunt and Truss and Reeves in business after PPE (Reeves also like May at the Bank of England). Starmer read law not PPE and was a barrister and head of the CPS, Blair also read law and was a barrister first as was Michael Howard. Boris read classics and was a journalist first not a SPAD. Brown read history and was a college lecturer.

Farage and Corbyn never even graduated from university of course and neither were SPADs, Farage worked in the city and Corbyn was a trade union rep and local councillor before election as an MP. IDS was a non graduate as well and in the army first

When you look at Thatcher's first cabinet, it is an interesting mix of soldiers (both WW2 and post-WW2), lawyers, business (tending towards business rather than 'finance'). And far more Cambridge graduates than Oxford PPE types. 😀

Thatcher could draw on plenty of people who'd thought deeply about the problems facing Britain under the post-war consensus.

This is what's been missing over the last 14 years. The central question that Cameron and his generation were concerned with solving was electoral rather than political, and the ultimate legacy of this has been to make the political problems worse while leaving the party unelectable.

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

darkage said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

tlg86 said:

In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.

Check this

Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z


https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.

There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.

So how, then, can we explain why it is different now?
If it's different now why should it be the same in the future?
The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?

Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.

As you perceive it.
So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?

Young people will look for radical alternatives to the current system, they will eventuallyj get attracted to the 'right' because of reactive dynamics. The thing that makes this more likely in my view is the 'right' is forbidden, outlawed through hate speech laws, lectured about in schools, people being sent to prison on dubious charges, etc. All this just makes it more and more attractive. It is what has happened in Europe and it will be likely to happen in the UK.

Simply saying that it is likely they will become so, does not explain why it isn't the case thus far.
The Right has been the dominant narrative in UK politics for 45 years.
Hate speech, well. Being an arsehole is frowned upon, yes.
Absolutely no one is lectured about politics in schools. There's zero space in a bullshit curriculum of nonsense of little relevance to the modern world.
Yes young people will look for radical alternatives, but they are of the Left overwhelmingly in comparison to other comparable nations right here, right now.
So. I ask again. Why is that?

I have met a few Gen Z via my younger son (who will vote LD) who are Communists, even to the point of liking Stalin and Mao. Not students either, one is a chef.

I didn't start an argument, but his idea of what life under Communism was like is seriously mis-informed. The Iron Curtain fell a dozen years before he was born, so just history from a book, or more likely TikTok. Nice lad in other ways and good housemate of Foxjr2.

I find it horrifying that people can find anything good in the legacy of Stalin or Mao. How many millions of deaths because of them?

I don't think I was ever taught anything about Mao, Marx, etc in school. A bit about Lenin and that Stalin, he was the bloke who led the Russian and he was on our side....Then it was pretty much British history, Empire, slaves, etc.

I think there is a large collective blindspot to the fact the Hitler / Nazi's aren't the only super baddies in history.

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Germany has unveiled a plan to reintroduce national service and boost its depleted military, but the plans have been called discriminatory against men.

Teenagers will receive a letter on their 18th birthday asking them to consider between six months and two years in military service. Men will have to fill out their personal details such as fitness, willingness to serve, marital and educational status or risk punishment, possibly a fine.

For women, filling out the questionnaire will be optional.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/12/german-national-service-plan-discriminates-against-men/

I await the hordes on here arising in loud condemnation of this policy of forced labour.

Anabobazina said:

Roger said:

bigjohnowls said:

Anabobazina said:

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

Starmer smashes it.

64% - 36%

Great job.

But if that’s representative, then it’s all Sunak needs….

He only needs to lose a debate by a 2-1 margin?

He only needs to get a decent chunk of 36% of voters to think he’s worth their vote….

The rest don’t matter to him.

His only strategy now is to eat into Reform and hope Labour dips a bit more.

Eh? Just because 64% said Starmer won doesn’t mean 64% will vote for him!

Was there a "they're both c**ts" option?

Prize for the most moronic post of the last two days. You must have misplaced the link to Guido's

It is just moronic bilge, daily, from Owls these days. Adds no value, and is mostly just offensive and nasty.

Nunu5 said:

Monksfield said:

GB News is going to poison politics here, just as Fox has in the USA.

I mean Farage can afford to skip interviews and debates because he has his own platform pitching softballs and propaganda every single day.

The Tories should rue the day they failed to regulate it properly. It’s destroying them from the inside.

One of the worst thing America has done to their own politics is get rid of the fairness doctrine.

JosiasJessop said:

Space Karen has made all of Twitter's like's private now.

Does this mean that politicians getting into trouble for liking troublesome posts is now in the past?

(I think private likes are a bad thing for a number of reasons.)

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

@RedfieldWilton
Reform leads by 44% among those who primarily get their TV news from GB News.

Westminster VI, GB News Viewers (7-10 June):

Reform UK 60%
Conservative 16%
Labour 13%
Liberal Democrat 1%
Other 4%
Don't Know 5%
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800927355440902395

The one Lib Dem who watches could be an interesting case study ;-) I suspect one of the "don't fund hate" lot being forced to watch it to organise the pile on of anybody who dares to run an ad on there.

I don't think the formation of GB News has been very helpful to the Tory party cause (maybe that was the intension of the founders). It will be interesting post GE if the Tories lean into trying to win that audience by moving further to the right or ignore them.

Heathener said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

PedestrianRock said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

MikeL said:

Heathener said:

People Polling drops

Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17

https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604

Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago

Changes:

Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)

That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now

No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.

Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all

What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?

I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority

I honestly have no idea, does anyone? Reform could continue their rise - or fall back. Labour could continue to slide, or surge again

it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now

If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything

I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal

I will shit my boxers with pleasure if Labour slip into the 30s on the night.

Probably the one pleasure I will get. It will set off all sorts of internal recriminations and legitimacy questions, which will dog SKS for his whole time in office.

This is disingenuous, as well as untrue.

One of the reasons Labour are, or may, poll sub 40 (I think it will be 37-39.5%) is because there’s a much more savvy anti-tory vote now. I’m a case in point but just one of millions. I want to vote Labour, naturally, but I’m voting LibDem to unseat the tory MP.

So make up whatever discourse you want on the night if that makes you happy but it won’t be objective truth.

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Germany has unveiled a plan to reintroduce national service and boost its depleted military, but the plans have been called discriminatory against men.

Teenagers will receive a letter on their 18th birthday asking them to consider between six months and two years in military service. Men will have to fill out their personal details such as fitness, willingness to serve, marital and educational status or risk punishment, possibly a fine.

For women, filling out the questionnaire will be optional.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/12/german-national-service-plan-discriminates-against-men/

I await the hordes on here arising in loud condemnation of this policy of forced labour.

Cleitophon said:

JosiasJessop said:

biggles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

darkage said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

tlg86 said:

In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.

Check this

Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z


https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.

There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.

So how, then, can we explain why it is different now?
If it's different now why should it be the same in the future?
The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?

Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.

As you perceive it.
So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?

Young people will look for radical alternatives to the current system, they will eventuallyj get attracted to the 'right' because of reactive dynamics. The thing that makes this more likely in my view is the 'right' is forbidden, outlawed through hate speech laws, lectured about in schools, people being sent to prison on dubious charges, etc. All this just makes it more and more attractive. It is what has happened in Europe and it will be likely to happen in the UK.

Simply saying that it is likely they will become so, does not explain why it isn't the case thus far.
The Right has been the dominant narrative in UK politics for 45 years.
Hate speech, well. Being an arsehole is frowned upon, yes.
Absolutely no one is lectured about politics in schools. There's zero space in a bullshit curriculum of nonsense of little relevance to the modern world.
Yes young people will look for radical alternatives, but they are of the Left overwhelmingly in comparison to other comparable nations right here, right now.
So. I ask again. Why is that?

I have met a few Gen Z via my younger son (who will vote LD) who are Communists, even to the point of liking Stalin and Mao. Not students either, one is a chef.

I didn't start an argument, but his idea of what life under Communism was like is seriously mis-informed. The Iron Curtain fell a dozen years before he was born, so just history from a book, or more likely TikTok. Nice lad in other ways and good housemate of Foxjr2.

I find it horrifying that people can find anything good in the legacy of Stalin or Mao. How many millions of deaths because of them?

I don't think I was ever taught anything about Mao, Marx, etc in school. A bit about Lenin and that Stalin, he was the bloke who led the Russian and he was on our side....Then it was pretty much British history, Empire, slaves, etc.

I think there is a large collective blindspot to the fact the Hitler / Nazi's aren't the only super baddies in history.

I didn’t need to be taught about the evils of communism or fascism from school. My grandparents were born in the 1910s and 20s, and my parents in the 50s. I was born in the (early) 1980s. It was self-evident. The first or hand experience is starting to fade. That’s a problem.

I put communism and fascism on the same level of evil. I find it both amusing and worrying that posters - including on here - can say that next time we try it, communism will work. Next time will be different.

I think there is far too much focus on the cartoonish representation of historical figures and national mythology rather than exposition of and critical reflection about the underlying structure of totalitarian ideas that ensnare people into utopianism and hatred. People are seduced by promises made on unobtainable futures. Focusing on the imperfect as opposed to perfection and the capacity for hatred to grow in that gap. We should read: Hannah Arendt's work on Eichmann, Karl Popper's Open Society and Its Enemies. Barrington Moore: The social origins of dictatorship and democracy. Seymore Lipset.

Heathener said:

Coming back to the ‘debate,’ Sky's Jon Craig has written up his analysis, poorly. There are about 10 totally avoidable errors in this article. Just careless mistakes or deliberate, I’m not sure.

What I don’t like is sloppy journalism such as this:

'Mr Sunak even stumbled into a blunder that will reinforce his critics' claim that this millionaire prime minister is out of touch with the cost of living plight ordinary people are facing.

When a father asked about his daughter's struggle to buy a house, Mr Sunak talked about a property costing £425,000. In Grimsby? Oh dear. Really, prime minister!

A Rightmove search for Grimsby reveals that out of 914 properties currently listed for sale in the town, only 13 are up for £425,000 or more. His political opponents will seize on that.’

It’s quite irritating because that is NOT what Rishi Sunak said. He was talking about help to buy and to abolish stamp duty ‘up to £425,000’ not at £425,000

But the audience laughed about it and Jon Craig did the populist thing that all poor journalists do, glossed over the detail to score a point.

I’m no defender of Rishi Sunak and he was pretty flat last night but the standard of broadcasting and journalism in this country isn’t very high. I don’t think it’s only GB News that’s the problem.

https://news.sky.com/story/keir-starmer-raised-his-game-as-rishi-sunak-fell-flat-in-sky-news-leaders-event-13152170

p.s. another sloppy comment is to state that Sunak won last week’s debate. Er, well maybe narrowly with the one pollster that Sky use (YouGov) but not with the other two he didn’t. So why not say so and report it
correctly?

kle4 said:

I actually am wrong about Rishi's career, because if anything he's had by some measures a very successful career, it is just on hyperspeed, as befits this tech bro age - get elected, become a minister, PM, then lose your seat (potentially) unless than 10 years.

Heathener said:

Coming back to the ‘debate,’ Sky's Jon Craig has written up his analysis, poorly. There are about 10 totally avoidable errors in this article. Just careless mistakes or deliberate, I’m not sure.

What I don’t like is sloppy journalism such as this:

'Mr Sunak even stumbled into a blunder that will reinforce his critics' claim that this millionaire prime minister is out of touch with the cost of living plight ordinary people are facing.

When a father asked about his daughter's struggle to buy a house, Mr Sunak talked about a property costing £425,000. In Grimsby? Oh dear. Really, prime minister!

A Rightmove search for Grimsby reveals that out of 914 properties currently listed for sale in the town, only 13 are up for £425,000 or more. His political opponents will seize on that.’

It’s quite irritating because that is NOT what Rishi Sunak said. He was talking about help to buy and to abolish stamp duty ‘up to £425,000’ not at £425,000

But the audience laughed about it and Jon Craig did the populist thing that all poor journalists do, glossed over the detail to score a point.

I’m no defender of Rishi Sunak and he was pretty flat last night but the standard of broadcasting and journalism in this country isn’t very high. I don’t think it’s only GB News that’s the problem.

https://news.sky.com/story/keir-starmer-raised-his-game-as-rishi-sunak-fell-flat-in-sky-news-leaders-event-13152170

p.s. another sloppy comment is to state that Sunak won last week’s debate. Er, well maybe narrowly with the one pollster that Sky use (YouGov) but not with the other two he didn’t. So why not say so and report it correctly?

ToryJim said:

Heathener said:

Coming back to the ‘debate,’ Sky's Jon Craig has written up his analysis, poorly. There are about 10 totally avoidable errors in this article. Just careless mistakes or deliberate, I’m not sure.

What I don’t like is sloppy journalism such as this:

'Mr Sunak even stumbled into a blunder that will reinforce his critics' claim that this millionaire prime minister is out of touch with the cost of living plight ordinary people are facing.

When a father asked about his daughter's struggle to buy a house, Mr Sunak talked about a property costing £425,000. In Grimsby? Oh dear. Really, prime minister!

A Rightmove search for Grimsby reveals that out of 914 properties currently listed for sale in the town, only 13 are up for £425,000 or more. His political opponents will seize on that.’

It’s quite irritating because that is NOT what Rishi Sunak said. He was talking about help to buy and to abolish stamp duty ‘up to £425,000’ not at £425,000

But the audience laughed about it and Jon Craig did the populist thing that all poor journalists do, glossed over the detail to score a point.

I’m no defender of Rishi Sunak and he was pretty flat last night but the standard of broadcasting and journalism in this country isn’t very high. I don’t think it’s only GB News that’s the problem.

https://news.sky.com/story/keir-starmer-raised-his-game-as-rishi-sunak-fell-flat-in-sky-news-leaders-event-13152170

p.s. another sloppy comment is to state that Sunak won last week’s debate. Er, well maybe narrowly with the one pollster that Sky use (YouGov) but not with the other two he didn’t. So why not say so and report it correctly?

The trouble is that too many journalists want to set the agenda rather than merely report on the agenda that is being set. That leads to highly selective reporting, it also leads to dumpster fires like GB News. It is rammed to the gills on that channel with wannabe politicians or failed or failing politicians. And the trouble is that they can’t help themselves from switching into campaign mode. So GB News has become a propaganda outlet not a serious news resource. It’s not great.

Monksfield said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

...

Monksfield said:

GB News is going to poison politics here, just as Fox has in the USA.

I mean Farage can afford to skip interviews and debates because he has his own platform pitching softballs and propaganda every single day.

The Tories should rue the day they failed to regulate it properly. It’s destroying them from the inside.

How is he skipping interviews and debates? Seems desperate to do them.

He seems pretty careful about who interviews him. Nobody too bright or combative.

Monksfield said:

JosiasJessop said:

Space Karen has made all of Twitter's like's private now.

Does this mean that politicians getting into trouble for liking troublesome posts is now in the past?

(I think private likes are a bad thing for a number of reasons.)

Might make sense, because the gotchas are often so out of context.

What bothers me even more are the algorithms. How they actively and relentlessly reinforce the content you engage with. It’s not healthy.

Sandpit said:

Someone at the Telegraph has obviously been upset by British Airways, perhaps they didn’t get an upgrade. This hit-piece, and the comments under it, could have come from The Sun.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/12/ba-passengers-enjoy-nine-hour-flight-to-nowhere-after-minor/

Plane has a minor warning light come on for an engine, so they turned around and came back to base rather than landing in the middle of nowhere in Northern Canada.