I was wondering where the Labour activists in East London would go given there aren't too many marginal seats in the vicinity (apart from East Ham and its 33,000 majority of course).
Would they go to Romford or to Hornchurch & Upminster?
It seems not - the Newham Mayor and the Labour candidates for Stratford & Bow and West Ham & Beckton have headed to Colchester.
James Cracknell, the new Conservative candidate, is defending a 9,400 majority - Labour needs a swing of 8.8% to take the seat so should be quite achievable on current numbers. It is the 136th most marginal Conservvative seat (or the 236th safest if you prefer).
A very thin excuse for a jolly if you ask me, Stodge.
Colchester can be pretty wild on a Wednesday night.
You seem to speak from experience.
I wouldn't know - one place I wouldn't be next Wednesday is Ascot. I can't remember if Flat racing was your interest or whether it was the jumps.
It'll be a welcome break from the election to do some proper punting.
To me the flat was always just a way of passing time through the summer until the proper stuff started.
Always hated Ascot. The rebuild was a disaster. For flat racing, you can't see anything unless you are in the Royal Box. Perversely it wasn't so bad for the jumps because you had such small crowds you could easily find a decent spot. They always treated us jumps fans as plebs though, so I generally avoided the place.
I was always a Sandown man. Has everything, although it is probably due for a rebuild soon.
I agree with your assessments of Sandown and Ascot. Sandown is top drawer viewing. Ascot gets away with it for the jumps. Newbury is a car crash.
But I’m a Ludlow man first and foremost. Tremendous view off the stands.
At last, a proper subject for debate.
Do they still allow you on the roof of the stand at Ludlow? One of the best views of jump racing anywhjere.
I'm not a fan of Ascot either and PtP is quite right about the rebuild. I went to the freebie organised by the Racegoers Club and it reminded me of a vast aircraft hanger. There used to be a lovely members room with wicker chairs and free hot food for reciprocal guests - Ascot back then was a class act.
Sandown viewing is first rate but it was designed to be a good viewing track. If you can get altitude Epsom is very good but I love Plumpton as you're close to the action as you are at Fontwell and down the Abbot.
My personal favourite is Goodwood on a fine sunny day from the top of the Sussex Stand - exceptional backdrop and view.
Yes, you can still watch off the top of the stands at Ludlow. The view to Titterstone Clee and to Wenlock Edge is one of the finest views in England. Life affirming! I’ve only been to Plumpton once but I enjoyed it.
My favourite jewel in the rough is NH at Leicester. Went with no expectations but it’s a great course to watch at.
I thought the audience reaction to Starmer was occasionally bad but this is so much worse for Sunak. The audience are just laughing and jeering.
There’s two aspects to this. Firstly everyone seems to sick of the Tories and Sunak is not a great PM (or even an average one). The other is that to be in the audience you are likely pretty politically engaged. I’m sure they’ve tried to balance the voting intentions, but there will be plenty of tribal activists in there, just like the weekly BBC question time audience.
I thought the audience reaction to Starmer was occasionally bad but this is so much worse for Sunak. The audience are just laughing and jeering.
this is why I've been stunned at how many PBers have been saying the Tories will end up on 200-250 or thereabouts - a lot of people seem a lot more angry than in previous elections.
I don't really agree with idea that audiences can heckle etc. Its not a comedy show.
They should absolutely be allowed to ask a question and the politician should be expected to have back and forth with them i.e. not just take the question and go thanks Janice, and them never have the ability to dispute / follow up.
I thought the audience reaction to Starmer was occasionally bad but this is so much worse for Sunak. The audience are just laughing and jeering.
There’s two aspects to this. Firstly everyone seems to sick of the Tories and Sunak is not a great PM (or even an average one). The other is that to be in the audience you are likely pretty politically engaged. I’m sure they’ve tried to balance the voting intentions, but there will be plenty of tribal activists in there, just like the weekly BBC question time audience.
Pantomime audiences make political stuff unwatchable
Irrespective of the Tory woes (and being below 20 is a massive woe, when the floor was meant to be 30), Labour do seem to be drifting down. Not suprising as the public is finally paying attention to politics for a bit.
Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.
I don't really agree with idea that audiences can heckle etc. Its not a comedy show.
They should absolutely be allowed to ask a question and the politician should be expected to have back and forth with them i.e. not just take the question and go thanks Janice, and them never have the ability to dispute / follow up.
I think a lot of people are just very angry at the moment. Sounded like an outburst.
Someone was asking yesterday about constituencies where there might be odd results. May I give you two possible examples
1. Bromsgrove where Dr David Nicholl is a very well known local personality and already on the Council. Apparently the Labour candidate did a no show at the hustings last night. I have put some money on David at 150-1 on Ladbrokes
2. Hackney North, which has 30,000 ultraorthodox Jews in the constituency and one of their own is standing for the Conservatives. At 50-1 on Bet365
I have put my money where my mouth is on both.
Before anyone rushes to follow you, I am pretty sure there aren't 30,000 Jews in Hackney North.
How much is your bet, EPG? Largest orthodox community in Europe
As you are doubling down on this, Hackney has less than 18,000 Jewish people total. Diane Abbott got 39,000 votes in GE19. Conservatives 7,000. If all Hackney's Jewish population lives in North, and they are all adults and they all voted Labour in GE19, and they all vote Conservative in GE24, then the Tories would win by 4,000. Seems like a lot of ifs.
What we need now is a leak from Sky accounts showing a Dr Sunak of Soton paying the premium sub covering the extra telly in your son's bedroom throughout the 90s
If you know his address, you might be able to spot a dish from satellite imagery from the period. Although that doesn't prove he was a subscriber of course.
Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.
If they had smarts, they could have come up with a policy along the lines of the US and say if you served will we pay your university fees should you want to do it upon completion.
Trend from polls seems to be Labour headed down towards 40/high 30s. Reform up, Tories stagnating in the doldrums. Still a bit of a question mark on the LDs.
Omg it is excruciating to watch Sunak .... it is unpleasant.
Sunak isn't brilliant as a politician, but he has been made the sin eater for the failures of the tory party in my mind.
I agree, Sunak is the fall guy. Paying the full buyers remorse tab on behalf of Bullshitter Bozo and Clueless Truss. I almost feel a bit sorry for him, although he has warmed to his fate.
Personally I’m not angry with Sunak. I’m angry with the Tory party for inflicting first the Johnson creature and then an incompetent like Truss on us.
What we need now is a leak from Sky accounts showing a Dr Sunak of Soton paying the premium sub covering the extra telly in your son's bedroom throughout the 90s
If you know his address, you might be able to spot a dish from satellite imagery from the period. Although that doesn't prove he was a subscriber of course.
Remember as well, there were multiple providers. Early on there was BSB and Sky.
Someone was asking yesterday about constituencies where there might be odd results. May I give you two possible examples
1. Bromsgrove where Dr David Nicholl is a very well known local personality and already on the Council. Apparently the Labour candidate did a no show at the hustings last night. I have put some money on David at 150-1 on Ladbrokes
2. Hackney North, which has 30,000 ultraorthodox Jews in the constituency and one of their own is standing for the Conservatives. At 50-1 on Bet365
I have put my money where my mouth is on both.
Before anyone rushes to follow you, I am pretty sure there aren't 30,000 Jews in Hackney North.
How much is your bet, EPG? Largest orthodox community in Europe
As you are doubling down on this, Hackney has less than 18,000 Jewish people total. Diane Abbott got 39,000 votes in GE19. Conservatives 7,000. If all Hackney's Jewish population lives in North, and they are all adults and they all voted Labour in GE19, and they all vote Conservative in GE24, then the Tories would win by 4,000. Seems like a lot of ifs.
From the 2021 Census:
Population of Hackney North and Stoke Newington: 134200 Percentage ticking the Jewish box: 12.0%
So about 16000, not all of them of voting age. Not trivial, but not 30000.
I don't really agree with idea that audiences can heckle etc. Its not a comedy show.
They should absolutely be allowed to ask a question and the politician should be expected to have back and forth with them i.e. not just take the question and go thanks Janice, and them never have the ability to dispute / follow up.
I think a lot of people are just very angry at the moment. Sounded like an outburst.
No I'm with Francis. The camera just panned out after a heckler was heard and you could see a mic boom being brought over his head. They're encouraging the heckling. Maybe good for engagement but this isn't fair on Sunak imo.
Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?
The Russians are digging trenches to consolidate their recent gains in Kharkiv Oblast. 2.5km from the international border. I guess it makes sense to force Ukraine to make a costly assault on prepared defensive positions, albeit Russia has already suffered horrendous losses in their failed offensive on this front.
Sometimes it is easy to think that Russia is doing embarrassingly badly in the war, but they're still able to inflict heavy losses on Ukraine and occupy Ukrainian territory.
Yes, they have not achieved all they wanted, but they can and (sadly) probably will be able to hold onto a lot of what they've takenin the last few years.
I'm not watching this because for me it seems pointless.
It isn’t. It’s fascinating.
Yeah it is actually surprisingly compelling
Beth does have a sort-of, ‘you’re done mate’ air about her
Presumably she won’t be asking about covid breaches, at least.
Now the media got their man in Boris, they don't want to talk about COVID full stop, as people might start to think back to their coverage. 18 months in, vaccination rolled out, and it was still full on, LOCCCCKKKKDOWWWWWNN yesterday.
There appears zero self reflection about how wrong the media got so much of COVID, and I don't mean that the situation changed, but every f##king day they couldn't read simple stats properly.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
Omg it is excruciating to watch Sunak .... it is unpleasant.
Sunak isn't brilliant as a politician, but he has been made the sin eater for the failures of the tory party in my mind.
It would have taken an extraordinary politician to turn things around. An ordinary one would probably have lost. A bad politician would lose very badly, and it's where we hae ended up.
Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.
Surely everybody has a go to something that is interesting that will make people warm to you, because we all meet new people all the time and need an ice breaker...no?
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.
"Plaid urge Welsh voters to stop a 'huge Labour majority'"
May work better for them than the Tories - ride the red wave and since it's Wales a few seats Labour voters may feel free to experiement with a bit of PC.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?
Seeing how ex-serviceman have actually been treated. Homeless, untreated PTSD, ignored by welfare, all the old veteren networks shut down... the list is long. Then this utter twat says how great everything is... words fail me.
Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?
Being trained in Roman oratory I'm not surprised Cicero may indulge in a bit of hyperbole.
Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.
What debate is on tomorrow? I wasn’t aware of that.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.
What debate is on tomorrow? I wasn’t aware of that.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
Nah. Only if it continues into next week, AND the Tory share rises a little bit
Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.
What debate is on tomorrow? I wasn’t aware of that.
I thought Beth was giving him an easy time and should have backed him into a corner over D Day .
He then fell apart when it came to his pledges . And Beth was even kind to him about growth . Sunak came across as tetchy and putting on a fake smile .
Surely everybody has a go to something that is interesting that will make people warm to you, because we all meet new people all the time and need an ice breaker...no?
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.
Maybe, but it's like a job interview style what is your main weakness question, easy to muck up.
"I'm really smart" might be a real reason for people to like him, but it'd look terrible to some no doubt. Say he likes some popular tv show or musician and probably get railed at by the creators for being a horrible Tory.
I thought Beth was giving him an easy time and should have backed him into a corner over D Day .
He then fell apart when it came to his pledges . And Beth was even kind to him about growth . Sunak came across as tetchy and putting on a fake smile .
Sunak does the weird grin when he is nervous / under pressure.
Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.
What debate is on tomorrow? I wasn’t aware of that.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
If the numbers are going to Reform and Lib Dems, Labour's biggest worry will what they do with their even larger majority.
Omg it is excruciating to watch Sunak .... it is unpleasant.
Sunak isn't brilliant as a politician, but he has been made the sin eater for the failures of the tory party in my mind.
He is the failure of the Tory Party. He was Chancellor through the wasted Boris years and has done the square root of FA since becoming PM. Now he's finishing the party off as a force in parliament with his stupid 'I'm off to America' election.
Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?
Seeing how ex-serviceman have actually been treated. Homeless, untreated PTSD, ignored by welfare, all the old veteren networks shut down... the list is long. Then this utter twat says how great everything is... words fail me.
Homelessness is not a simple fix though, is it, nor is PTSD. As to veterans networks - are you claiming the Tories closed things down? I’m not agreeing with Sunak - he’s taking a few small changes and claiming a huge amount, but you might be being a touch harsh.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
It might be the case were Labour bleeding votes to the Tories. But they can still afford to lose much more and come out with a comfortable majority.
And Labour haven't even launched their manifesto yet - they'll probably see a bounce from that too.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
If you look back you’ll find lots of Labour posters laughing at the stratospheric Labour numbers the ludicrous Goodwin was posting a few weeks back.
Labour have lost 3 points or so this week. Not cause for any panic.
Surely everybody has a go to something that is interesting that will make people warm to you, because we all meet new people all the time and need an ice breaker...no?
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.
Maybe, but it's like a job interview style what is your main weakness question, easy to muck up.
"I'm really smart" might be a real reason for people to like him, but it'd look terrible to some no doubt. Say he likes some popular tv show or musician and probably get railed at by the creators for being a horrible Tory.
When a politician says they like a band or tv show and the people in involved in it spit their dummy, it looks worse on them than it does the politician. It looks petty and also make them appear like they don't actually want anybody but those with a very narrow politician view to enjoy their art. Its basket of deplorables stuff.
And as we are seeing with Doctor Who ratings, not sure it works out well in the end telling people not to watch it and to go touch grass.
"Plaid urge Welsh voters to stop a 'huge Labour majority'"
Given that I don't think there's a particularly strong attachment to voting for Labour, as opposed to voting against the Tories, I think there's a real chance this could save a very large number of Tory seats, and maybe even bring about a Hung Parliament.
It's a fascinating example of how voting intentions in FPTP are distorted by how people think other people will vote, and how they balance what they want to vote for, as opposed to what they want to vote against.
I think we forget how much of UKIP's vote came from Labour voters.
Why can't the same happen again?
It could. But when Labour are running so far ahead and Reform are pitching much more to Tory voters than Labour, a) will it? b) even if it does, they are so far ahead will it prevent a win?
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
Frankly while they enjoy a gap of over 20% over their nearest rival they won’t be particularly perturbed.
If the Tories pulled it back a little and we saw something like 38/28 then yes there would be a need to worry.
Or if Farage does manage his leapfrog and you get Ref in the mid 20s. Baxter thinks Ref have to be getting into the high 20s before they start winning a significant number of seats - in actuality, given their vote is quite concentrated in certain areas a score like that would start really throwing up some wacky results all over the place and I suspect net them a decent haul.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
Nah. Only if it continues into next week, AND the Tory share rises a little bit
Labour haven’t won a general election in about six centuries. They are nervous congenitally. They are also used to surprising defeats by the Tories, it’s in their DNA. See the entire commentary of @SouthamObserver passim, it’s either massive anxiety attacks or overly cheerful whistling and wishcasting
Don’t get me wrong, I still expect Labour to win this easily. But maybe not at as easily as we all anticipated
More pertinently, the idea a party - any party - will look at a legitimate poll and see a SEVEN point drop and just shrug and chuckle and say “Yeah, whatever, it means nothing, we’re bound to win” that is absurd. They will be wobbling in Labour HQ - and rightly - all polls show them sliding
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Surely everybody has a go to something that is interesting that will make people warm to you, because we all meet new people all the time and need an ice breaker...no?
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.
Maybe, but it's like a job interview style what is your main weakness question, easy to muck up.
"I'm really smart" might be a real reason for people to like him, but it'd look terrible to some no doubt. Say he likes some popular tv show or musician and probably get railed at by the creators for being a horrible Tory.
When a politician says they like a band or tv show and the people in involved in it spit their dummy, it looks worse on them than it does the politician. It looks petty and also make them appear like they don't actually want anybody with a very narrow politician view to enjoy their art. Its basket of deplorables stuff.
You'd hope so, but I feel like more often than not the politician, by virtue of being less popularity than a celebrity, still takes a hit.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
Comments
My favourite jewel in the rough is NH at Leicester. Went with no expectations but it’s a great course to watch at.
The Conservative’s polling suggests so.
They should absolutely be allowed to ask a question and the politician should be expected to have back and forth with them i.e. not just take the question and go thanks Janice, and them never have the ability to dispute / follow up.
Everything about him is he doesn’t want to be there. Or doing this election.
Right here, right now, you can see why he called it early.
Beth does have a sort-of, ‘you’re done mate’ air about her
Personally I’m not angry with Sunak. I’m angry with the Tory party for inflicting first the Johnson creature and then an incompetent like Truss on us.
Population of Hackney North and Stoke Newington: 134200
Percentage ticking the Jewish box: 12.0%
So about 16000, not all of them of voting age. Not trivial, but not 30000.
Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z
https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
Agh - Goodwin's tweet is completely useless!
Tell us something that will make us like you.
I eat a lot of sugar.
🤷♀️
There appears zero self reflection about how wrong the media got so much of COVID, and I don't mean that the situation changed, but every f##king day they couldn't read simple stats properly.
If the Tories weren't also down since the start of the campaign then you'd definitely expect some panic in Labour ranks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rrwe0ne7ro
"Plaid urge Welsh voters to stop a 'huge Labour majority'"
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.
But then he is running in that answer against his own parties record.
What’s the price of Haribo on the street.
He then fell apart when it came to his pledges . And Beth was even kind to him about growth . Sunak came across as tetchy and putting on a fake smile .
"I'm really smart" might be a real reason for people to like him, but it'd look terrible to some no doubt. Say he likes some popular tv show or musician and probably get railed at by the creators for being a horrible Tory.
Why can't the same happen again?
I realise this could fall into 'LMGTFY' but I have tried, honest!
I’m not agreeing with Sunak - he’s taking a few small changes and claiming a huge amount, but you might be being a touch harsh.
And Labour haven't even launched their manifesto yet - they'll probably see a bounce from that too.
Labour have lost 3 points or so this week. Not cause for any panic.
And as we are seeing with Doctor Who ratings, not sure it works out well in the end telling people not to watch it and to go touch grass.
It's a fascinating example of how voting intentions in FPTP are distorted by how people think other people will vote, and how they balance what they want to vote for, as opposed to what they want to vote against.
NB I never watch these kinds of things. Haven’t seen Question Time.
If the Tories pulled it back a little and we saw something like 38/28 then yes there would be a need to worry.
Or if Farage does manage his leapfrog and you get Ref in the mid 20s. Baxter thinks Ref have to be getting into the high 20s before they start winning a significant number of seats - in actuality, given their vote is quite concentrated in certain areas a score like that would start really throwing up some wacky results all over the place and I suspect net them a decent haul.
https://news.sky.com/
Don’t get me wrong, I still expect Labour to win this easily. But maybe not at as easily as we all anticipated
More pertinently, the idea a party - any party - will look at a legitimate poll and see a SEVEN point drop and just shrug and chuckle and say “Yeah, whatever, it means nothing, we’re bound to win” that is absurd. They will be wobbling in Labour HQ - and rightly - all polls show them sliding
They’re still gonna win tho
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
https://x.com/TorinPhable/status/1800226199047901292