I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?
Seeing how ex-serviceman have actually been treated. Homeless, untreated PTSD, ignored by welfare, all the old veteren networks shut down... the list is long. Then this utter twat says how great everything is... words fail me.
The specialist services hospitals closed. Only very partly remedied since.
NB I never watch these kinds of things. Haven’t seen Question Time.
Ever? Add in a lack of knowledge of To The Manor Born and I’m starting to think you just don’t watch TV at all!
I don’t have a TV, no. I only stream online. Generally speaking I only watch tv dramas, films, sports online. I don’t watch news or current affairs programmes, no.
I wouldn’t watch Question Time. Just not interested enough in people arguing at one another, except for an election.
As for To The Manor Born it was half a century ago, right? I mean play fair.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
That assumes you'll be happy with what replaces it which remains unclear.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
Nah. Only if it continues into next week, AND the Tory share rises a little bit
Labour haven’t won a general election in about six centuries. They are nervous congenitally. They are also used to surprising defeats by the Tories, it’s in their DNA. See the entire commentary of @SouthamObserver passim, it’s either massive anxiety attacks or overly cheerful whistling and wishcasting
Don’t get me wrong, I still expect Labour to win this easily. But maybe not at as easily as we all anticipated
More pertinently, the idea a party - any party - will look at a legitimate poll and see a SEVEN point drop and just shrug and chuckle and say “Yeah, whatever, it means nothing, we’re bound to win” that is absurd. They will be wobbling in Labour HQ - and rightly - all polls show them sliding
They’re still gonna win tho
I’m pretty sure that Labours numbers have dropped from mid 40s to 40-39, in the three weeks so far. They may drop a bit more (maybe landing ground is 36-37?) But for any nervous Labourite they need only look at the Tory share and relax. FPTP is brutal once you slip below a certain point. Nothing is turning it round for the Tories and you have to suspect nothing will until Starmers government hits its first rocky patch.
Surely everybody has a go to something that is interesting that will make people warm to you, because we all meet new people all the time and need an ice breaker...no?
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.
Maybe, but it's like a job interview style what is your main weakness question, easy to muck up.
"I'm really smart" might be a real reason for people to like him, but it'd look terrible to some no doubt. Say he likes some popular tv show or musician and probably get railed at by the creators for being a horrible Tory.
When a politician says they like a band or tv show and the people in involved in it spit their dummy, it looks worse on them than it does the politician. It looks petty and also make them appear like they don't actually want anybody with a very narrow politician view to enjoy their art. Its basket of deplorables stuff.
You'd hope so, but I feel like more often than not the politician, by virtue of being less popularity than a celebrity, still takes a hit.
I honestly don't think so. The media get excited by having some artist rushing to respond by f##k Tories, f##k Blair or whatever. The vast majority of the population aren't that ideological. They vote for different parties at different times. At worst they roll their eyes.
Interestingly we have had very little in the way of celebrity endorsements so far. I wonder if we will get them this time?
Omg it is excruciating to watch Sunak .... it is unpleasant.
Sunak isn't brilliant as a politician, but he has been made the sin eater for the failures of the tory party in my mind.
He is the failure of the Tory Party. He was Chancellor through the wasted Boris years and has done the square root of FA since becoming PM. Now he's finishing the party off as a force in parliament with his stupid 'I'm off to America' election.
The problem with this point (although I agree, it's a strong one) - is that everyone else on your side of the argument is also aping the GOP, dressing small-state American republicanism in the British flag and waving it at British voters.
You're better off respecting the right-wing omertà, imo.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
Frankly while they enjoy a gap of over 20% over their nearest rival they won’t be particularly perturbed.
If the Tories pulled it back a little and we saw something like 38/28 then yes there would be a need to worry.
Or if Farage does manage his leapfrog and you get Ref in the mid 20s. Baxter thinks Ref have to be getting into the high 20s before they start winning a significant number of seats - in actuality, given their vote is quite concentrated in certain areas a score like that would start really throwing up some wacky results all over the place and I suspect net them a decent haul.
Fully agree that we could be about to enter very strange territory if Reform hit the 20s.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes Total bullshit story. Section 42 definition of "Cheating" as per the Gambling Act applies when you nobble a horse, bribe a croupier or mark cards not when you have inside information that your bet is a dead certainty. It requires interference to be a crime.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes Total bullshit story. Section 42 definition of "Cheating" as per the Gambling Act applies when you nobble a horse, bribe a croupier or mark cards not when you have inside information that your bet is a dead certainty. It requires interference to be a crime.
That's alright then. Nothing to see here, move along.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. Measure change over a longer poll sequence than this. We have to be careful, the lower Labour share pollsters come in clusters, let’s see what Mori etc says.
Labour could get a manifesto bounce - part of this weeks dip likely bounce for other LLG manifesto day going first -
both main parties likely get drift to them from minor parties as vote day comes closer,
Labour will definitely get a PV bounce from tactical voting.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
I honestly have no idea, does anyone? Reform could continue their rise - or fall back. Labour could continue to slide, or surge again
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything
I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
Rishi Sunak said on national service he was “incredibly excited” for his young daughters to do national service, arguing it would “foster a culture of service in our society” and “contribute to our long-term resilience and security”.
Are they still doubling and tripling down on this. The when in a hole stop digging.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. Measure change over a longer poll sequence than this. We have to be careful, the lower Labour share pollsters come in clusters, let’s see what Mori etc says.
Labour could get a manifesto bounce - part of this weeks dip likely bounce for other LLG manifesto day going first -
both main parties likely get drift to them from minor parties as vote day comes closer,
Labour will definitely get a PV bounce from tactical voting.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
I honestly have no idea, does anyone? Reform could continue their rise - or fall back. Labour could continue to slide, or surge again
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything
I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal
Difficult tightrope to walk for the LDs because that might lose them some potential sympathetic Brexiteer vote in places like the South West
The line about Starmer not having a plan to do xyz is really weak for Sunak because it's trying to make competence the dividing line when people don't trust your competence. He should be saying that Starmer doesn't want to do xyz.
Rishi Sunak said on national service he was “incredibly excited” for his young daughters to do national service, arguing it would “foster a culture of service in our society” and “contribute to our long-term resilience and security”.
Are they still doubling and tripling down on this. The when in a hole stop digging.
At the end, he said there'd be a royal commission to look into it. Like, why announce such a specific policy on it? Why not announce that you would appoint some people to look at options based on what other countries do etc. etc.?
Rishi Sunak said on national service he was “incredibly excited” for his young daughters to do national service, arguing it would “foster a culture of service in our society” and “contribute to our long-term resilience and security”.
Are they still doubling and tripling down on this. The when in a hole stop digging.
At the end, he said there'd be a royal commission to look into it. Like, why announce such a specific policy on it? Why not announce that you would appoint some people to look at options based on what other countries do etc. etc.?
Because Team Sunak are absolute morons. Look at the manifesto. We are behind we need to win over people, right who isn't popular with people, Landlords, right give them a tax cut and don't think it through so it could be a huge tax fiddle opportunity....
Overall that Sunak interview was a far, far better watching experience than the nonsense debate last week. Just watching Starmer now. Well done Sky, this is a better format.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of:
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. Measure change over a longer poll sequence than this. We have to be careful, the lower Labour share pollsters come in clusters, let’s see what Mori etc says.
Labour could get a manifesto bounce - part of this weeks dip likely bounce for other LLG manifesto day going first -
both main parties likely get drift to them from minor parties as vote day comes closer,
Labour will definitely get a PV bounce from tactical voting.
43% nailed on imo.
PV = popular vote or something else?
Popular vote. What’s on wiki when everything counted.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
Omg it is excruciating to watch Sunak .... it is unpleasant.
Sunak isn't brilliant as a politician, but he has been made the sin eater for the failures of the tory party in my mind.
He is the failure of the Tory Party. He was Chancellor through the wasted Boris years and has done the square root of FA since becoming PM. Now he's finishing the party off as a force in parliament with his stupid 'I'm off to America' election.
The problem with this point (although I agree, it's a strong one) - is that everyone else on your side of the argument is also aping the GOP, dressing small-state American republicanism in the British flag and waving it at British voters.
You're better off respecting the right-wing omertà, imo.
The Tory manifesto is planning to RAISE the already record-breaking tax burden. Whatever the Sunak-Hunt decline and fall era Toryism is, small state American republicanism IT AIN'T.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of:
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
Yes, for me the worst scenario for Labour would be a 2005 style lack of enthusiasm depressing their vote, but with the other parties doing just a bit better and denying them a majority.
NB I never watch these kinds of things. Haven’t seen Question Time.
Ever? Add in a lack of knowledge of To The Manor Born and I’m starting to think you just don’t watch TV at all!
I don’t have a TV, no. I only stream online. Generally speaking I only watch tv dramas, films, sports online. I don’t watch news or current affairs programmes, no.
I wouldn’t watch Question Time. Just not interested enough in people arguing at one another, except for an election.
As for To The Manor Born it was half a century ago, right? I mean play fair.
Everyone’s got their own hinterlands. For me TTMB is part of my growing up, from a time when there were three TV channels so little choice. I enjoyed its gentle, never cruel, humour. But I have massive gaps in my knowledge of other things. I’m not a huge music fan, outside a few select groups. I read a lot, but in narrow areas (mostly history, used to be Sci-Fi, and Terry Pratchet). I like some sports a lot, but could give a toss for others, such as motor sport. So our differences are part of us, and makes life interesting.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
Frankly while they enjoy a gap of over 20% over their nearest rival they won’t be particularly perturbed.
If the Tories pulled it back a little and we saw something like 38/28 then yes there would be a need to worry.
Or if Farage does manage his leapfrog and you get Ref in the mid 20s. Baxter thinks Ref have to be getting into the high 20s before they start winning a significant number of seats - in actuality, given their vote is quite concentrated in certain areas a score like that would start really throwing up some wacky results all over the place and I suspect net them a decent haul.
Farage is the wildcard in this election. If immigration is your #1 issue, he reaches the parts that neither Con nor Lab can reach. And he is reaching it, no doubt about that.
Fwiw a friend in the red trouser brigade messaged me yesterday unprompted to point out that Farage was the 'last hope for this country after the Conservatives let us all down', which surprised me a bit, as I assumed he appealed more to your red wall gammonite than your bufton tufton type.
There's a world of difference in the size of the Labour majority depending on if the Farage-gasm is happening in Lab or Con targets.
Sophy Ridge tells James Cleverly that Sunak looks “broken”.
Well I was going to post something similar but thought it might just be my bias.
He did look deflated, which is perhaps a fairer word. Or maybe just exhausted by it all. Six gruelling weeks and he’s only half-way through. Remember he has never done anything like this before.
NB I never watch these kinds of things. Haven’t seen Question Time.
Ever? Add in a lack of knowledge of To The Manor Born and I’m starting to think you just don’t watch TV at all!
I don’t have a TV, no. I only stream online. Generally speaking I only watch tv dramas, films, sports online. I don’t watch news or current affairs programmes, no.
I wouldn’t watch Question Time. Just not interested enough in people arguing at one another, except for an election.
As for To The Manor Born it was half a century ago, right? I mean play fair.
Everyone’s got their own hinterlands. For me TTMB is part of my growing up, from a time when there were three TV channels so little choice. I enjoyed its gentle, never cruel, humour. But I have massive gaps in my knowledge of other things. I’m not a huge music fan, outside a few select groups. I read a lot, but in narrow areas (mostly history, used to be Sci-Fi, and Terry Pratchet). I like some sports a lot, but could give a toss for others, such as motor sport. So our differences are part of us, and makes life interesting.
Good news! Cleverly going in on the £2k as definitely being from the Treasury though "we added them up". With Ridge grinning her face off as Cleverly soils himself.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
I honestly have no idea, does anyone? Reform could continue their rise - or fall back. Labour could continue to slide, or surge again
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything
I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal
Difficult tightrope to walk for the LDs because that might lose them some potential sympathetic Brexiteer vote in places like the South West
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of:
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
Yes, for me the worst scenario for Labour would be a 2005 style lack of enthusiasm depressing their vote, but with the other parties doing just a bit better and denying them a majority.
I mentioned earlier today that this talk of a ’SuperMajority' is the first smart thing the Conservatives have done all campaign.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
Sophy Ridge tells James Cleverly that Sunak looks “broken”.
He looked worse than that. He seemed sulky. Almost like he didn’t even care about the Tory Party anymore, blaming it for ruining his life.
That performance was - weird.
He's not wrong.
The Conservative party is an ungrateful mistress.
Source: Pretty much every former senior (and indeed, junior) tory politician who has been asked their opinion. Indeed, I doubt any of the 2024 casualties would dissent.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
Frankly while they enjoy a gap of over 20% over their nearest rival they won’t be particularly perturbed.
If the Tories pulled it back a little and we saw something like 38/28 then yes there would be a need to worry.
Or if Farage does manage his leapfrog and you get Ref in the mid 20s. Baxter thinks Ref have to be getting into the high 20s before they start winning a significant number of seats - in actuality, given their vote is quite concentrated in certain areas a score like that would start really throwing up some wacky results all over the place and I suspect net them a decent haul.
Farage is the wildcard in this election. If immigration is your #1 issue, he reaches the parts that neither Con nor Lab can reach. And he is reaching it, no doubt about that.
Fwiw a friend in the red trouser brigade messaged me yesterday unprompted to point out that Farage was the 'last hope for this country after the Conservatives let us all down', which surprised me a bit, as I assumed he appealed more to your red wall gammonite than your bufton tufton type.
There's a world of difference in the size of the Labour majority depending on if the Farage-gasm is happening in Lab or Con targets.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of:
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
That involves Labour dropping to a level we've only seen a couple of times in the last hundred years.
That would be quite the outcome given how they've been polling over the last year.
The narrative change Ridge is talking about is this week's switch from "Labour will put your taxes up" to "pleeeeease don't give Labour a supermajority"
The Tories haven't just given up on winning, they think they are heading to oblivion.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of:
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
Yes, for me the worst scenario for Labour would be a 2005 style lack of enthusiasm depressing their vote, but with the other parties doing just a bit better and denying them a majority.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
The line about Starmer not having a plan to do xyz is really weak for Sunak because it's trying to make competence the dividing line when people don't trust your competence. He should be saying that Starmer doesn't want to do xyz.
It's also not very persuasive when Starmer will say over and over again that he does have a plan, and people trust him more than Sunak.
This thing about tax. They have gone up, they will continue to go up under Sunak. Why can't he admit that? This thing about migration. It fell a little last year, its increased a lot this year - which means its very heavily up overall. Why can't he admit that?
"Yes it hurt. Yes it worked". Own it man. Its been bad - blame Ukraine or Covid or Truss or whatever. But your reality is our reality. We're sorry, we're fixing it.
That can work - as Major proved in 1992. This? He's lying to people's faces and telling them the sky is green. Its utterly crazy.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Glad I haven’t totally lost the plot. That’s about how I’d give it too.
I think that's fair too. Starmer, measured, calm, committed, a bit too waffly; Sunak, defensive, apologetic, but also bullish at times, and kept his cool.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
The narrative change Ridge is talking about is this week's switch from "Labour will put your taxes up" to "pleeeeease don't give Labour a supermajority"
The Tories haven't just given up on winning, they think they are heading to oblivion.
Fair comment really. It is not a message you make unless you're in extreme damage limitation.
Will it work? It might get a few back, but it depends how many Reform voters genuinely hate the Tories and want them destroyed, and how many are just angry and could be made to see their destruction is not beneficial.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
This "Sunak is a defeated man" thing. We picked up on it. Sam Coates picked up on it. The audience are picking up on it.
This could utterly demolish him for the last 3 weeks. The joy / sorrow of politics is the herd mentality. When the tide goes out it sucks things along with it...
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
That drop in Labour's polling doesn't pass the smell test yet.
I think it does, precisely because it’s not a real two-horse race. People who think Sunak is useless can take their pick of parties to vote for without thinking that they might let Sunak win, so Labour can’t monopolise the anti-incumbent vote.
Given Starmers dodgy start where Beth really gave him both barrels I think he managed to hold it together and in the audience section he looked much more in touch with the public .
I find Sunak deeply disingenuous and that look he gives really grates .
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes Total bullshit story. Section 42 definition of "Cheating" as per the Gambling Act applies when you nobble a horse, bribe a croupier or mark cards not when you have inside information that your bet is a dead certainty. It requires interference to be a crime.
Guido has the political antennae of a moth that's had a close encounter with a Bunsen burner.
Comments
I wouldn’t watch Question Time. Just not interested enough in people arguing at one another, except for an election.
As for To The Manor Born it was half a century ago, right? I mean play fair.
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
Interestingly we have had very little in the way of celebrity endorsements so far. I wonder if we will get them this time?
You're better off respecting the right-wing omertà, imo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcuPL8n9I0g
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
Total bullshit story. Section 42 definition of "Cheating" as per the Gambling Act applies when you nobble a horse, bribe a croupier or mark cards not when you have inside information that your bet is a dead certainty. It requires interference to be a crime.
Labour could get a manifesto bounce - part of this weeks dip likely bounce for other LLG manifesto day going first -
both main parties likely get drift to them from minor parties as vote day comes closer,
Labour will definitely get a PV bounce from tactical voting.
43% nailed on imo.
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything
I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal
Why can’t you be sensible like this more often?
Are they still doubling and tripling down on this. The when in a hole stop digging.
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension.
2. Gutting the criminal justice system.
3. Ending border controls.
This was a completely different Sunak and completely different script from last week.
He didn’t mention 2K Lie at all did he 🤷♀️ he couldn’t stop mentioning it last week.
CON 25% (226)
LAB 30% (321)
LDM 15% (56)
RFM 17% (4)
GRN 8% (3)
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
So our differences are part of us, and makes life interesting.
Fwiw a friend in the red trouser brigade messaged me yesterday unprompted to point out that Farage was the 'last hope for this country after the Conservatives let us all down', which surprised me a bit, as I assumed he appealed more to your red wall gammonite than your bufton tufton type.
There's a world of difference in the size of the Labour majority depending on if the Farage-gasm is happening in Lab or Con targets.
That poor pig, bacon in the 2nd full week 🫣
He's one of those "how do you do fellow kids" people, who just looks a prat. Muppet.
He did look deflated, which is perhaps a fairer word. Or maybe just exhausted by it all. Six gruelling weeks and he’s only half-way through. Remember he has never done anything like this before.
Quite right turbo
That performance was - weird.
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
It’s very dangerous for Labour.
The Conservative party is an ungrateful mistress.
Source: Pretty much every former senior (and indeed, junior) tory politician who has been asked their opinion. Indeed, I doubt any of the 2024 casualties would dissent.
That would be quite the outcome given how they've been polling over the last year.
The Tories haven't just given up on winning, they think they are heading to oblivion.
Breaking: YouGov snap poll is 64/36 to Starmer...
64% - 36%
Great job.
Starmer 64%
Sunak 36%
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
This thing about migration. It fell a little last year, its increased a lot this year - which means its very heavily up overall. Why can't he admit that?
"Yes it hurt. Yes it worked". Own it man. Its been bad - blame Ukraine or Covid or Truss or whatever. But your reality is our reality. We're sorry, we're fixing it.
That can work - as Major proved in 1992. This? He's lying to people's faces and telling them the sky is green. Its utterly crazy.
Gentlemenly handshake offered by James at the end though. A classy touch.
That drop in Labour's polling doesn't pass the smell test yet.
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
66% I reckon
Will it work? It might get a few back, but it depends how many Reform voters genuinely hate the Tories and want them destroyed, and how many are just angry and could be made to see their destruction is not beneficial.
This could utterly demolish him for the last 3 weeks. The joy / sorrow of politics is the herd mentality. When the tide goes out it sucks things along with it...
I find Sunak deeply disingenuous and that look he gives really grates .