I can’t see how anyone but the most rigged boxing judge could give the split to Sunak
That looks at first sight like English, but fails to make sense. Decisions and adjudications are rigged, not the people making them, and a single judge can't "give the split" one way or the other.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
On defence and justice, Cameron and Osborne share the blame. Both men decided that the public don’t care about these issues.
On border control, that’s on Boris and his successors.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
This "Sunak is a defeated man" thing. We picked up on it. Sam Coates picked up on it. The audience are picking up on it.
This could utterly demolish him for the last 3 weeks. The joy / sorrow of politics is the herd mentality. When the tide goes out it sucks things along with it...
I'd like to think so Rochdale but... it's the hope that gets you.
(To clarify, I have no wish to see Sunak demolished as a person, but as leader of his party - and his party with him)
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
John still doesn't seem to understand that Labour cannot just offer whatever people ask. As Tony Blair said, the strength for a Labour leader is to say "no". Saying yes is easy.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
Did you read what I posted? I voted remain. I’d rather we hadn’t brexited. I think we are where we are though, and the rejoin polling is false (as the terms would never be what we left on).
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I thought it was going to be in the manifesto but with a 'when the economic position allows' aspiration more than policy. Is it not going to be in there at all?
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
John still doesn't seem to understand that Labour cannot just offer whatever people ask. As Tony Blair said, the strength for a Labour leader is to say "no". Saying yes is easy.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
I’d never thought of it this way before but without Covid, the Cummings/Johnson team would have lasted longer and would have had more chance to show results.
Given Starmers dodgy start where Beth really gave him both barrels I think he managed to hold it together and in the audience section he looked much more in touch with the public .
I find Sunak deeply disingenuous and that look he gives really grates .
Like a lot of spreadsheet obsessives he has a tetchy side that comes across a lot as he kind of sighs 'look, why don't you understand, the numbers say this...'
I'm a few minutes behind now, but Starmer seems to be connecting well with the general public. He seems to be dealing with the VAT question pretty well and, sensitively.
His politics just doesn’t understand aspiration though, does it. State or nothing.
I disagree. Starmer is saying people at state schools can be aspirational too. And implies probably more so than non VAT paying private school students who are mostly locking in privilege.
It's a thoughtful answer and I think he wins on the aspiration question, regardless of whether this is a sensible tax
This "Sunak is a defeated man" thing. We picked up on it. Sam Coates picked up on it. The audience are picking up on it.
This could utterly demolish him for the last 3 weeks. The joy / sorrow of politics is the herd mentality. When the tide goes out it sucks things along with it...
I'd like to think so Rochdale but... it's the hope that gets you.
(To clarify, I have no wish to see Sunak demolished as a person, but as leader of his party - and his party with him)
Remember that my dad was a toolmaker I've met Rishi and liked him. He personally will be the opposite of demolished. A global figure, married to a billionaire, with a PM's pension, and a mega job in California.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
Did you read what I posted? I voted remain. I’d rather we hadn’t brexited. I think we are where we are though, and the rejoin polling is false (as the terms would never be what we left on).
Even if you voted remain you can still ask if it was worth it.
I voted remain and don't think it was worth leaving.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
Hey, I didn't say I was in the three quarters, Rishi. I'm actually a huge fan. I do wish you'd tone it down with romanticising war, though. I know after a few glasses you like lurching to rag-time tunes but it makes you seem like a bit of a ghoul.
Personal question. Do you have aspirations to be a writer? I sense that maybe you do
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?
Seeing how ex-serviceman have actually been treated. Homeless, untreated PTSD, ignored by welfare, all the old veteren networks shut down... the list is long. Then this utter twat says how great everything is... words fail me.
The specialist services hospitals closed. Only very partly remedied since.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
This "Sunak is a defeated man" thing. We picked up on it. Sam Coates picked up on it. The audience are picking up on it.
This could utterly demolish him for the last 3 weeks. The joy / sorrow of politics is the herd mentality. When the tide goes out it sucks things along with it...
I'd like to think so Rochdale but... it's the hope that gets you.
(To clarify, I have no wish to see Sunak demolished as a person, but as leader of his party - and his party with him)
Remember that my dad was a toolmaker I've met Rishi and liked him. He personally will be the opposite of demolished. A global figure, married to a billionaire, with a PM's pension, and a mega job in California.
Istr he gave you the horn. Has the reek of political failure diminished his fanciability?
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of:
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
Yes, for me the worst scenario for Labour would be a 2005 style lack of enthusiasm depressing their vote, but with the other parties doing just a bit better and denying them a majority.
I mentioned earlier today that this talk of a ’SuperMajority' is the first smart thing the Conservatives have done all campaign.
It’s very dangerous for Labour.
The supermajority fear was one I have been toying with for a while. I would prefer Starmer to win but don't want Labour to have a massive majority. The blair experience is quite instructive.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
On defence and justice, Cameron and Osborne share the blame. Both men decided that the public don’t care about these issues.
On border control, that’s on Boris and his successors.
I think they all took the lesson that politics can be entirely cynical from Tony Blair.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
I’d never thought of it this way before but without Covid, the Cummings/Johnson team would have lasted longer and would have had more chance to show results.
Cummings had an actual post-Brexit plan. Parts of it may have been mad, and maybe he was the wrong guy to deliver it, even from the back room, but it was a plan and it was coherent - deregulate, level up, restrict immigration to highly skilled, focus on technology and destroy the Woke blob that stops everything and slows everything else. But Boris is led by his dick and fell for Carrie and got distracted and then came Covid and the war. It’s a tragedy, really. Boris had the political rizz and Cummings had the brains - it might just have worked
instead the Tories lie in ruins and the rubble needs to be cleared away, so we can start again
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
Frankly while they enjoy a gap of over 20% over their nearest rival they won’t be particularly perturbed.
If the Tories pulled it back a little and we saw something like 38/28 then yes there would be a need to worry.
Or if Farage does manage his leapfrog and you get Ref in the mid 20s. Baxter thinks Ref have to be getting into the high 20s before they start winning a significant number of seats - in actuality, given their vote is quite concentrated in certain areas a score like that would start really throwing up some wacky results all over the place and I suspect net them a decent haul.
Farage is the wildcard in this election. If immigration is your #1 issue, he reaches the parts that neither Con nor Lab can reach. And he is reaching it, no doubt about that.
Fwiw a friend in the red trouser brigade messaged me yesterday unprompted to point out that Farage was the 'last hope for this country after the Conservatives let us all down', which surprised me a bit, as I assumed he appealed more to your red wall gammonite than your bufton tufton type.
There's a world of difference in the size of the Labour majority depending on if the Farage-gasm is happening in Lab or Con targets.
11th Hussars?
Said acquaintance's main hobby is shooting. He's never told me whether he means clay pigeons, real ones, or people. I choose not to enquire tbh.
I found it odd that he gave me the party political on behalf of the Faragista party as he doesn't usually discuss politics with me, and certainly never unprompted. I suggested if he was a Faragist perhaps he should move to Jaywick and live in a trailer home... no reply, unsurprisingly.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes Total bullshit story. Section 42 definition of "Cheating" as per the Gambling Act applies when you nobble a horse, bribe a croupier or mark cards not when you have inside information that your bet is a dead certainty. It requires interference to be a crime.
Guido has the political antennae of a moth that's had a close encounter with a Bunsen burner.
He's also wrong on his substantive point: s.42(3) of the act makes it clear that interference is not required for an offence to have occurred.
This "Sunak is a defeated man" thing. We picked up on it. Sam Coates picked up on it. The audience are picking up on it.
This could utterly demolish him for the last 3 weeks. The joy / sorrow of politics is the herd mentality. When the tide goes out it sucks things along with it...
I'd like to think so Rochdale but... it's the hope that gets you.
(To clarify, I have no wish to see Sunak demolished as a person, but as leader of his party - and his party with him)
Remember that my dad was a toolmaker I've met Rishi and liked him. He personally will be the opposite of demolished. A global figure, married to a billionaire, with a PM's pension, and a mega job in California.
Good point. What a bastard, eh?
Btw, I can't believe that Starmer let slip that his father was a toolmaker, I though that was a big secret. Seriously, someone on his team needs to have a word. Or is it becoming a bit of a positive meme now?
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
Did you read what I posted? I voted remain. I’d rather we hadn’t brexited. I think we are where we are though, and the rejoin polling is false (as the terms would never be what we left on).
Even if you voted remain you can still ask if it was worth it.
I voted remain and don't think it was worth leaving.
I think a lot of what happened was a result of the way successive governments failed to give the people a say on European integration. All other members of the EU used referenda to ensure buy in with important steps such as Lisbon. But not for the Brits, oh no. They never trusted the public enough, or that they could make the case well enough. And so when the chance to have their say came round, a lot just said ‘feck you’. So in one sense finally having a vote was worth it, even if the outcome has been poor. And if it has shifted opinions since and makes people realise that maybe being in the EU or even just as closely aligned as possible, then that’s also a good thing.
So basically, I think that yes, it was worth it. It’s also likely to give Labour its biggest win and a chance to try to mend the country, so that’s a plus too.
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
Hey, I didn't say I was in the three quarters, Rishi. I'm actually a huge fan. I do wish you'd tone it down with romanticising war, though. I know after a few glasses you like lurching to rag-time tunes but it makes you seem like a bit of a ghoul.
Personal question. Do you have aspirations to be a writer? I sense that maybe you do
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
There was a young man called Farage Who one day got locked in his garage He campaigned so hard But let down his guard And fell to an electoral barrage.
But if that’s representative, then it’s all Sunak needs….
He only needs to lose a debate by a 2-1 margin?
He only needs to get a decent chunk of 36% of voters to think he’s worth their vote….
The rest don’t matter to him.
His only strategy now is to eat into Reform and hope Labour dips a bit more.
Eh? Just because 64% said Starmer won doesn’t mean 64% will vote for him!
The woman who heckled Sunak, and interrupted his answers, when interviewed post the debate said that neither Sunak or Starmer understand the NHS and I would suggest NOA would have won the debate
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
On defence and justice, Cameron and Osborne share the blame. Both men decided that the public don’t care about these issues.
On border control, that’s on Boris and his successors.
I think they all took the lesson that politics can be entirely cynical from Tony Blair.
They took all the wrong lessons from New Labour, and failed to appreciate that the post 2008 world is a very different place to the pre 2008 world.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
There are a lot of good books to be written about the 2019 - 2024 administration (and no doubt quite a few bad ones too).
FWIW I think the the analyses around 2021/2022 are wrong. Boris melted all the glue away from his party pretty much immediately. The only thing keeping the Tories together was external pressure: Brexit, then Covid. As soon as the pressure from those lifted they flew apart. I don't think there's anything anyone could have done. Boris fucked the party in 2019. It just took a wee while for the first rash to appear.
I don't think this level of loss was inevitable.
That Boris was ousted at all when he should have been untouchable after a big win is proof itself that things were cracking pretty badly, it didn't happen in a vaccuum. They were going to face some major pressures and probably lose a lot of seats, but could a win have occurred? I think it could have.
The cack handed manner of the ousting resulting in the Truss-Sunak switcharound destroyed them. From that point on no argument based on competence or stability was possible.
Sunak doing a bad job thereafter just compounded things.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
Impressive that you manage do that while still making time for constant self-husbanding over that picture of yourself in your magazine showing the aftermath of you covering your face in glue before rubbing it in the bin of a Brazilian waxing salon. Have a shave you bearded failure.
Child Benefit cap removal makes sense but Starmer is just trying to avoid "Labour puts benefits up!!!!!" headlines - I imagine they'll ditch the cap fairly quickly post election.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
It is also getting harder to argue that the EU is a great club to be in as it lurches to the hard right and as the economic motor - Germany - stumbles towards economic Depression and serious discontent
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
I think too many people see the one percent liars and cheats and think it’s more like 50%. There will always be some who claim to be unable to walk more than few yards but get filmed running three times a week and completing half marathons. But they are rare.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
I’d never thought of it this way before but without Covid, the Cummings/Johnson team would have lasted longer and would have had more chance to show results.
Cummings had an actual post-Brexit plan. Parts of it may have been mad, and maybe he was the wrong guy to deliver it, even from the back room, but it was a plan and it was coherent - deregulate, level up, restrict immigration to highly skilled, focus on technology and destroy the Woke blob that stops everything and slows everything else. But Boris is led by his dick and fell for Carrie and got distracted and then came Covid and the war. It’s a tragedy, really. Boris had the political rizz and Cummings had the brains - it might just have worked
instead the Tories lie in ruins and the rubble needs to be cleared away, so we can start again
I get quite a scary vibe from Carrie. I don't think Boris is going to leave her and the family. Not without incurring severe bodily harm.
This "Sunak is a defeated man" thing. We picked up on it. Sam Coates picked up on it. The audience are picking up on it.
This could utterly demolish him for the last 3 weeks. The joy / sorrow of politics is the herd mentality. When the tide goes out it sucks things along with it...
I'd like to think so Rochdale but... it's the hope that gets you
If - and it is an *if* - this narrative settles in, then some interesting things *could* happen.
1. "don't give Labour a supermajority" - I think there are some legs in this. Whilst its an established and widely agreed assumption that Labour will win the election, that isn't the same as Labour winning a comfortable majority, or a landslide, or a supermajority. In the seats they need to win I can see they taking smaller majorities as people switch into other parties, and people feeling a little freer to vote as they wish which would give a boost to the Greens and Reform
2. The acceleration towards Tory ELE. Why vote for the loser? The herd mentality kicks in, Tory voters move onto what happens to the party after the election and accelerate the transition to Reform, people fed up switch tactically into whichever other party can punish them.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
The trouble is chronic short-termism, together with an obsession with PR, and taking the path of least resistance and keeping one's fingers crossed it all works out.
That's not leadership. Real leadership would have been telling pensioners they can't have everything they want if they also want a strong, secure and fair country.
This "Sunak is a defeated man" thing. We picked up on it. Sam Coates picked up on it. The audience are picking up on it.
This could utterly demolish him for the last 3 weeks. The joy / sorrow of politics is the herd mentality. When the tide goes out it sucks things along with it...
I'd like to think so Rochdale but... it's the hope that gets you.
(To clarify, I have no wish to see Sunak demolished as a person, but as leader of his party - and his party with him)
Remember that my dad was a toolmaker I've met Rishi and liked him. He personally will be the opposite of demolished. A global figure, married to a billionaire, with a PM's pension, and a mega job in California.
Istr he gave you the horn. Has the reek of political failure diminished his fanciability?
For clarity he did not give me the horn. I had a play with the "Dishy Rishi" narrative. As I did with Jacob Rees-Mogg. Who also did not give me the horn...
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
All of the above. But the fact remains removing the two child cap is, by far, the most efficient and cost effective way to take children out of poverty. To the extent that if you choose not to do so, you are making the choice for child poverty. Yes it's a question of budget priorities, but what would you be prioritising above this?
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
I think too many people see the one percent liars and cheats and think it’s more like 50%. There will always be some who claim to be unable to walk more than few yards but get filmed running three times a week and completing half marathons. But they are rare.
True of course. I have to tell as many people that they aren't realistically going to get Personal Independence Payment as helping those who will.
As for the fraudsters, they are generally dobbed in it be a neighbour of family member. Rightly so.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
I honestly have no idea, does anyone? Reform could continue their rise - or fall back. Labour could continue to slide, or surge again
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything
I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal
I will shit my boxers with pleasure if Labour slip into the 30s on the night.
Probably the one pleasure I will get. It will set off all sorts of internal recriminations and legitimacy questions, which will dog SKS for his whole time in office.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
Impressive that you manage do that while still making time for constant self-husbanding over that picture of yourself in your magazine showing the aftermath of you covering your face in glue before rubbing it in the bin of a Brazilian waxing salon. Have a shave you bearded failure.
I refer the honorable PB-er to my earlier comment to @Farooq
Swap Aberdeen for wherever it is you live. Newent?
“No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke”
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
It is also getting harder to argue that the EU is a great club to be in as it lurches to the hard right and as the economic motor - Germany - stumbles towards economic Depression and serious discontent
I was never persuaded all those times you argued that the EU was a great club to be in.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
I’d never thought of it this way before but without Covid, the Cummings/Johnson team would have lasted longer and would have had more chance to show results.
Cummings had an actual post-Brexit plan. Parts of it may have been mad, and maybe he was the wrong guy to deliver it, even from the back room, but it was a plan and it was coherent - deregulate, level up, restrict immigration to highly skilled, focus on technology and destroy the Woke blob that stops everything and slows everything else. But Boris is led by his dick and fell for Carrie and got distracted and then came Covid and the war. It’s a tragedy, really. Boris had the political rizz and Cummings had the brains - it might just have worked
instead the Tories lie in ruins and the rubble needs to be cleared away, so we can start again
I get quite a scary vibe from Carrie. I don't think Boris is going to leave her and the family. Not without incurring severe bodily harm.
lol yeah, likewise. Quite feminine but a wildcat if crossed. Vagina dentata
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
On defence and justice, Cameron and Osborne share the blame. Both men decided that the public don’t care about these issues.
On border control, that’s on Boris and his successors.
I think they all took the lesson that politics can be entirely cynical from Tony Blair.
They took all the wrong lessons from New Labour, and failed to appreciate that the post 2008 world is a very different place to the pre 2008 world.
Ours is in age of blood and iron.
In short, they were sugar-rush politicians not serious politicians.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
Hey, I didn't say I was in the three quarters, Rishi. I'm actually a huge fan. I do wish you'd tone it down with romanticising war, though. I know after a few glasses you like lurching to rag-time tunes but it makes you seem like a bit of a ghoul.
Personal question. Do you have aspirations to be a writer? I sense that maybe you do
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
There was a young man called Farage Who one day got locked in his garage He campaigned so hard But let down his guard And fell to an electoral barrage.
That’s….. quite bad. Needs work on the scansion. Sorry Sunil!
But if that’s representative, then it’s all Sunak needs….
He only needs to lose a debate by a 2-1 margin?
He only needs to get a decent chunk of 36% of voters to think he’s worth their vote….
The rest don’t matter to him.
His only strategy now is to eat into Reform and hope Labour dips a bit more.
Eh? Just because 64% said Starmer won doesn’t mean 64% will vote for him!
No. Ignore the 64%. That’s a red herring. I didn’t watch but I am sure Sunak was appalling because he always is. 36% still say he won. That’s his voter pool. That’s his max - so blind to his shit-ness or full of hate for Labour that they think he won.
And the Tories are no longer, I assume, playing to win. They are playing to minimise the loss.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
I honestly have no idea, does anyone? Reform could continue their rise - or fall back. Labour could continue to slide, or surge again
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything
I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal
I will shit my boxers with pleasure if Labour slip into the 30s on the night.
Probably the one pleasure I will get. It will set off all sorts of internal recriminations and legitimacy questions, which will dog SKS for his whole time in office.
The SNP getting a bloody nose is on my list of election night pleasures.
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
About 20% of voters plan to vote Tory at the moment. Occasionally you are going to meet one. I haven't knowingly met one for ages, and as I live in the old Penrith and Border seat (Whitelaw, Rory, One Nation heartland), that is saying something. But they are out there somewhere.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes Total bullshit story. Section 42 definition of "Cheating" as per the Gambling Act applies when you nobble a horse, bribe a croupier or mark cards not when you have inside information that your bet is a dead certainty. It requires interference to be a crime.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
The trouble is chronic short-termism, together with an obsession with PR, and taking the path of least resistance and keeping one's fingers crossed it all works out.
That's not leadership. Real leadership would have been telling pensioners they can't have everything they want if they also want a strong, secure and fair country.
Absolutely right. And Boris had the majority to do that. 80 seats
TBF they did get rolled over by Covid, like every government, but still
And on that note, it is midnight in Odessa and I want to be fast asleep before the drones, so I sleep through them again, it’s much better for the nerves. night night
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
I’d never thought of it this way before but without Covid, the Cummings/Johnson team would have lasted longer and would have had more chance to show results.
Cummings had an actual post-Brexit plan. Parts of it may have been mad, and maybe he was the wrong guy to deliver it, even from the back room, but it was a plan and it was coherent - deregulate, level up, restrict immigration to highly skilled, focus on technology and destroy the Woke blob that stops everything and slows everything else. But Boris is led by his dick and fell for Carrie and got distracted and then came Covid and the war. It’s a tragedy, really. Boris had the political rizz and Cummings had the brains - it might just have worked
instead the Tories lie in ruins and the rubble needs to be cleared away, so we can start again
Cummings has never struck me as having a very coherent set of ideas underneath all his corporate/science babble. He's also peculiarly hostile to Ukraine, not simply a Russia appeaser. And Johnson was always likely to self destruct as PM because he has no self discipline. You might be able to get away with that as a flamboyant Mayor but not in the top job.
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
About 20% of voters plan to vote Tory at the moment. Occasionally you are going to meet one. I haven't knowingly met one for ages, and as I live in the old Penrith and Border seat (Whitelaw, Rory, One Nation heartland), that is saying something. But they are out there somewhere.
Have you not been in the cafe in the Penrith Booths? I imagine they might gather there.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
It is also getting harder to argue that the EU is a great club to be in as it lurches to the hard right and as the economic motor - Germany - stumbles towards economic Depression and serious discontent
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
Hey, I didn't say I was in the three quarters, Rishi. I'm actually a huge fan. I do wish you'd tone it down with romanticising war, though. I know after a few glasses you like lurching to rag-time tunes but it makes you seem like a bit of a ghoul.
Personal question. Do you have aspirations to be a writer? I sense that maybe you do
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
I am a writer, in the sense that I've had things published*. It's not my occupation, though. I don't have the patience or focus for anything long form.
*I'm leaving an open goal here but trust me nobody's going to throw a barb here I haven't already heard.
I'm a YouTuber and influencer. That last word sounds absurd as I type it, but I know I have influenced people's decisions as they openly tell me. I've been stopped in the street with "I watch your channel" which was surreal. I've had some free stuff for review, and have a relatively small cash sponsorship with a very big brand proposal due for a decision shortly (they approached me).
I had no idea how my YouTube project would go, but its (mostly) a lot of fun. As long as it stays fun I will be happy.
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
Cons a big buy, if you're right.
That's a pretty similar forecast to my own.
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
It is also getting harder to argue that the EU is a great club to be in as it lurches to the hard right and as the economic motor - Germany - stumbles towards economic Depression and serious discontent
For a while, I thought Brexit had saved the UK from a lurch to the hard right. Now, I think we've probably only delayed it. Our politicians are making similar mistakes, e.g. on immigration. Hence the return of the Faragistas.
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
I'm not detecting any enthusiasm for Starmer.
It's entirely driven by a desire to eject the existing administration.
If Starmer confuses that for a real mandate to do whatever he likes once he's in office he's going to very quickly run into real trouble.
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
I'm not detecting any enthusiasm for Starmer.
It's entirely driven by a desire to eject the existing administration.
If Starmer confuses that for a real mandate to do whatever he likes once he's in office he's going to very quickly run into real trouble.
The mandate will be having a majority in the House of Commons.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of:
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
Yes, for me the worst scenario for Labour would be a 2005 style lack of enthusiasm depressing their vote, but with the other parties doing just a bit better and denying them a majority.
I mentioned earlier today that this talk of a ’SuperMajority' is the first smart thing the Conservatives have done all campaign.
It’s very dangerous for Labour.
The supermajority fear was one I have been toying with for a while. I would prefer Starmer to win but don't want Labour to have a massive majority. The blair experience is quite instructive.
In part I think this accounts for the modest drop in Lab polling (though Con is dropping as quickly) and also folk like me not feeling the need or desire to back Labour, and can look at LD or Green. Depending on geography and if looking at their own seats could be a further wound to the Tories.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
I honestly have no idea, does anyone? Reform could continue their rise - or fall back. Labour could continue to slide, or surge again
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything
I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal
I will shit my boxers with pleasure if Labour slip into the 30s on the night.
Probably the one pleasure I will get. It will set off all sorts of internal recriminations and legitimacy questions, which will dog SKS for his whole time in office.
I will be very happy and have made a very large profit on my 8/1 on SKS failing to beat Jezzas 12.9m votes from 2017
That bet is still available with Sky Bet but its now only 13/8 but based on the last 5 polls should be odds on DYOR
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
Hey, I didn't say I was in the three quarters, Rishi. I'm actually a huge fan. I do wish you'd tone it down with romanticising war, though. I know after a few glasses you like lurching to rag-time tunes but it makes you seem like a bit of a ghoul.
Personal question. Do you have aspirations to be a writer? I sense that maybe you do
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
There was a young man called Farage Who one day got locked in his garage He campaigned so hard But let down his guard And fell to an electoral barrage.
That’s….. quite bad. Needs work on the scansion. Sorry Sunil!
Did Farage once say his surname rhymes with garage, or is that an urban myth?
I hope it's true because where I come from we'd all have to start calling him Nigel Farridge, which suits him better I think.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
It is also getting harder to argue that the EU is a great club to be in as it lurches to the hard right and as the economic motor - Germany - stumbles towards economic Depression and serious discontent
For a while, I thought Brexit had saved the UK from a lurch to the hard right. Now, I think we've probably only delayed it. Our politicians are making similar mistakes, e.g. on immigration. Hence the return of the Faragistas.
Look at the economics slides put up by Sky in the post-debate coverage. a 20% inflationary spike since Covid. On top of decades of decay in so many places.
The rise of the hard right is what happens when economies fail voters. Reform are going to score more votes than UKIP did in 2015, and win seats. More importantly they are displacing the Tories as the populist right party.
Comments
I stand by Starmer wafferly, doesn’t give clear answers, and when in a spot reaches for weird things.
But Sunak was so lacking fight, you can see tonight this playing into Farages hands, polling crossover, and bizarre election result.
We need another week or so of polling to see if it's a real trend.
IMHO, Labour is still around 40-43 points.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
On border control, that’s on Boris and his successors.
Aaaaargh! Stop it. Please!
John McDonnell
@johnmcdonnellMP
·
1h
I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
https://x.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1800965371026927943
(To clarify, I have no wish to see Sunak demolished as a person, but as leader of his party - and his party with him)
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
The rest don’t matter to him.
His only strategy now is to eat into Reform and hope Labour dips a bit more.
It's a thoughtful answer and I think he wins on the aspiration question, regardless of whether this is a sensible tax
my dad was a toolmakerI've met Rishi and liked him. He personally will be the opposite of demolished. A global figure, married to a billionaire, with a PM's pension, and a mega job in California.I voted remain and don't think it was worth leaving.
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
I do begin to fear for his mental health, and sure he will be relieved to see 5th July and pass over to Starmer
The only question now is just why Labour's poll ratings are falling and will they stabilise
instead the Tories lie in ruins and the rubble needs to be cleared away, so we can start again
I found it odd that he gave me the party political on behalf of the Faragista party as he doesn't usually discuss politics with me, and certainly never unprompted. I suggested if he was a Faragist perhaps he should move to Jaywick and live in a trailer home... no reply, unsurprisingly.
I don't think he should be allowed to make a single decision for the next 4 weeks without running it past Hague and/or Cameron.
Btw, I can't believe that Starmer let slip that his father was a toolmaker, I though that was a big secret. Seriously, someone on his team needs to have a word. Or is it becoming a bit of a positive meme now?
So basically, I think that yes, it was worth it. It’s also likely to give Labour its biggest win and a chance to try to mend the country, so that’s a plus too.
Who one day got locked in his garage
He campaigned so hard
But let down his guard
And fell to an electoral barrage.
There is an awful lot of cynicism out there
Ours is in age of blood and iron.
That Boris was ousted at all when he should have been untouchable after a big win is proof itself that things were cracking pretty badly, it didn't happen in a vaccuum. They were going to face some major pressures and probably lose a lot of seats, but could a win have occurred? I think it could have.
The cack handed manner of the ousting resulting in the Truss-Sunak switcharound destroyed them. From that point on no argument based on competence or stability was possible.
Sunak doing a bad job thereafter just compounded things.
You are Laura K and I claim my five pounds.
1. "don't give Labour a supermajority" - I think there are some legs in this. Whilst its an established and widely agreed assumption that Labour will win the election, that isn't the same as Labour winning a comfortable majority, or a landslide, or a supermajority.
In the seats they need to win I can see they taking smaller majorities as people switch into other parties, and people feeling a little freer to vote as they wish which would give a boost to the Greens and Reform
2. The acceleration towards Tory ELE. Why vote for the loser? The herd mentality kicks in, Tory voters move onto what happens to the party after the election and accelerate the transition to Reform, people fed up switch tactically into whichever other party can punish them.
That's not leadership. Real leadership would have been telling pensioners they can't have everything they want if they also want a strong, secure and fair country.
As for the fraudsters, they are generally dobbed in it be a neighbour of family member. Rightly so.
Probably the one pleasure I will get. It will set off all sorts of internal recriminations and legitimacy questions, which will dog SKS for his whole time in office.
Swap Aberdeen for wherever it is you live. Newent?
“No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke”
And the Tories are no longer, I assume, playing to win. They are playing to minimise the loss.
But - like adultery - it's probably not moral.
TBF they did get rolled over by Covid, like every government, but still
And on that note, it is midnight in Odessa and I want to be fast asleep before the drones, so I sleep through them again, it’s much better for the nerves. night night
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1800210044811681859
I had no idea how my YouTube project would go, but its (mostly) a lot of fun. As long as it stays fun I will be happy.
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
Sunak representing the UK.
OK, make that G6.5
It's entirely driven by a desire to eject the existing administration.
If Starmer confuses that for a real mandate to do whatever he likes once he's in office he's going to very quickly run into real trouble.
Also DKs making up their minds too.
That bet is still available with Sky Bet but its now only 13/8 but based on the last 5 polls should be odds on DYOR
I hope it's true because where I come from we'd all have to start calling him Nigel Farridge, which suits him better I think.
The rise of the hard right is what happens when economies fail voters. Reform are going to score more votes than UKIP did in 2015, and win seats. More importantly they are displacing the Tories as the populist right party.
Smooth selection for a safe seat isn't it.