Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
I think Sky has about 13 million households as customers these days, just behind Netflix who have about 15 million. About 1/3 of the country pay for it.
Sky Sports is by far the best value of all the networks, including the BBC. It’s fantastic value for the sheer quantity and quality of the live sport you get.
Sky News is also the best news channel (although that is damning by faint praise).
£4800 on your mortgage seems a bit of a stretch. I don't see another substantial increase in interest rates any time soon. They are, if anything, edging down in the gilt markets.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
Surely they're not going to broadcast that? It's terminal.
I thought it was all over, but that is so grim. Complaining about it running over even while you're leaving a day early.
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
It's like someone turning up late and telling you they were stuck in traffic or the train was cancelled and you know perfectly well it wasn't. Or, 'Sorry I'm late, the funeral overran.'
Jeepers, what is this guy doing in Politics, or public life at all? He's in the wrong frigging job!
This is the problem with the £2,000 figure. Gives room for Labour to just double it and fire back. Both numbers are effective because everyone thinks taxes and going up and the Conservatives have form for smashing people with mortgages.
Surely they're not going to broadcast that? It's terminal.
I thought it was all over, but that is so grim. Complaining about it running over even while you're leaving a day early.
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
It's like picking a sore isn't it? He can't leave it alone. In his somewhat gilded life he has not really had to cope with failure. Even getting beaten by Truss (steady @Leon) was a short blip in his rise to the top. He hasn't built in the kind of coping mechanisms most of us learn going through life. He's trying to learn them now in real time and the public view. It is painful viewing.
Surely they're not going to broadcast that? It's terminal.
I thought it was all over, but that is so grim. Complaining about it running over even while you're leaving a day early.
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
It's like someone turning up late and telling you they were stuck in traffic or the train was cancelled and you know perfectly well it wasn't. Or, 'Sorry I'm late, the funeral overran.'
Jeepers, what is this guy doing in Politics, or public life at all? He's in the wrong frigging job!
Some of us have been saying that for a long time now, Peter.
I tipped ahead of the curve both the betting value that he would be Prime Minister, and that he should not be Prime Minister too.
Surely they're not going to broadcast that? It's terminal.
I thought it was all over, but that is so grim. Complaining about it running over even while you're leaving a day early.
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
It's like someone turning up late and telling you they were stuck in traffic or the train was cancelled and you know perfectly well it wasn't. Or, 'Sorry I'm late, the funeral overran.'
Jeepers, what is this guy doing in Politics, or public life at all? He's in the wrong frigging job!
Reminds me of a client who was genuinely pissed off at his daughter for breaking her arm at school, meaning he had to reschedule some important work meetings. Weird guy.
£4800 on your mortgage seems a bit of a stretch. I don't see another substantial increase in interest rates any time soon. They are, if anything, edging down in the gilt markets.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
The clip doesn't show the workings, but £4800 is £100 a month for four years. That's not that much on rates rising, or falling more slowly than otherwise.
I'm not sure that's a good mathematical convention, but it's the Conservatives' preferred one, so hey ho.
Surely they're not going to broadcast that? It's terminal.
I thought it was all over, but that is so grim. Complaining about it running over even while you're leaving a day early.
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
Not entirely his fault- Sunak recorded the interview before he or his handlers had realised that a scandal would break out over this. In his head, it probably sounded like a sincere polite apology. Maybe at the time it was.
The political stupidity was recording an interview a week in advance in a fast-moving campaign.
£4800 on your mortgage seems a bit of a stretch. I don't see another substantial increase in interest rates any time soon. They are, if anything, edging down in the gilt markets.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
The clip doesn't show the workings, but £4800 is £100 a month for four years. That's not that much on rates rising, or falling more slowly than otherwise.
I'm not sure that's a good mathematical convention, but it's the Conservatives' preferred one, so hey ho.
Oh right. Well, it is possible that higher borrowing will drive interest rates up by enough for that. Our 10 year gilts are already a full percent higher than most of Europe's, mainly because we are less good at controlling inflation (cheers, BoE, a cracking job you did there. Again.)
Political arithmetic by all the parties is not much more than fantasy these days. Hasn't ever really recovered from Brown and his multiple reannouncements of the same spending and the grossing up of multiple years payments. If anything its getting worse. No wonder people just switch off.
Surely they're not going to broadcast that? It's terminal.
I thought it was all over, but that is so grim. Complaining about it running over even while you're leaving a day early.
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
Not entirely his fault- Sunak recorded the interview before he or his handlers had realised that a scandal would break out over this. In his head, it probably sounded like a sincere polite apology. Maybe at the time it was.
The political stupidity was recording an interview a week on advance in a fast-moving campaign.
Yes but even then it gives the impression that he considered the ITV interview much more important than D-Day. A day early AND complaining about it going on a bit.
Maybe that's just my good work environment speaking. I'd never expect someone to apologise for taking time off because of a funeral/childcare/illness - just an explanation.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
Then a hang glider from one of those giant step ladders.
He’s not gone zorbing yet.
I genuinely, unironically, think he and his party have played a blinder with this strategy. Fun BBQ dad is hard archetype to dislike. Helps that he does actually seem to be enjoying it as well - but it makes him stand out from the others.
In another tribute to the Lib Dem surge Labour promises to fix a million potholes a year. Presumably starting in Blackburn, Lancashire whose holes have been notorious since the 1960s.
£4800 on your mortgage seems a bit of a stretch. I don't see another substantial increase in interest rates any time soon. They are, if anything, edging down in the gilt markets.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
The clip doesn't show the workings, but £4800 is £100 a month for four years. That's not that much on rates rising, or falling more slowly than otherwise.
I'm not sure that's a good mathematical convention, but it's the Conservatives' preferred one, so hey ho.
Oh right. Well, it is possible that higher borrowing will drive interest rates up by enough for that. Our 10 year gilts are already a full percent higher than most of Europe's, mainly because we are less good at controlling inflation (cheers, BoE, a cracking job you did there. Again.)
Political arithmetic by all the parties is not much more than fantasy these days. Hasn't ever really recovered from Brown and his multiple reannouncements of the same spending and the grossing up of multiple years payments. If anything its getting worse. No wonder people just switch off.
My impression is that Europe has been (slightly) better on the whole at keeping energy prices lower. I don't think this is down to interest rates, so I don't think BOE rate rises or not rate rises have had the biggest impact.
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
Went without cable TV? For his generation that would be a hardship for a child, particularly if most of his peers did have cable in their homes.
But yes, luxury. Speaking as one who grew up before cable TV was ubiquitous, and where you got three TV channels. And no broadcasts from midnight to 5am or thereabouts; should know for as a kid, used to get up early on Saturdays, watch TV test pattern for half-hour, then the national anthem with visuals of US Air Fore jets & similar, the actual programming - cartoons!
All this on a black and white TV. In distant mist of time, when UKers were still calling TV "the telly".
Cable TV in the UK in the 1980s? You must be joking. Didn't exist. 😊
Yes, I was thinking that. The UK had 3 channels until Channel 4 in 1981ish, then 4 until Channel 5 in the mid 90s, satellite television (Sky) in the early 90s, then subscription channels in the Noughties and now everything since about the 2010s. UK didn't really have cable, and those cable shows that were imported were shown on the terrestrial channels.
ENRON started laying its cables in East London in the mid-90s, as a relative pioneer in street-dug cable connectivity, allowing access to such delights as Topless Darts, the Weather in Norwegian, and Tiffany's Tips.
Surely they're not going to broadcast that? It's terminal.
I thought it was all over, but that is so grim. Complaining about it running over even while you're leaving a day early.
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
Not entirely his fault- Sunak recorded the interview before he or his handlers had realised that a scandal would break out over this. In his head, it probably sounded like a sincere polite apology. Maybe at the time it was.
The political stupidity was recording an interview a week in advance in a fast-moving campaign.
It made no sense at the time, and makes even less sense now.
It’s not as if ITV News wouldn’t have jumped to the PM’s schedule any time he wanted, if Downing St or CCHQ had said we can do 3am, there would have been a studio full of people waiting at 2am.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
Quite. The contortions just justify his continued presence are getting absurd.
In another tribute to the Lib Dem surge Labour promises to fix a million potholes a year. Presumably starting in Blackburn, Lancashire whose holes have been notorious since the 1960s.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
In the second 2022 election, the alternatives were Johnson and Mordaunt. Since one was utterly discredited and the other a political lightweight who hadn't carried a sword well yet, Sunak was the only good choice. The party wouldn't accept Hunt for a nanosecond.
As for your final point, you may well be right. The polls don't have to shift far from where they are to make it so.
I slept through all of this - was maybe vaguely aware in a semi conscious way. Same way you hear thunder in your dreams. I did hear the Iskander missile: woke me up. And then I quickly went back to sleep
“They were mass-attacking Ukraine with Shaheds and then missiles well into the early morning. Once it was all-clear everywhere else, #Odesa got hit by an Iskander-M (5 a.m).
6:15 - and here comes another alert for the entire country because Mig-31 has just taken off…”
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
Quite. The contortions just justify his continued presence are getting absurd.
They brought this on themselves though. Their system for electing leaders is enormously flawed, and the patronage/loyalty approach has winnowed out actual talent from the Con front bench attritionally, particularly from Boris onwards.
The members would sooner have a Sir Edward Leigh type than an actual capable leader, and this is the leader of the *country* we’re talking about here. It’s less egregious in opposition but having a shit LOTO isn’t particularly good for the nation either.
Gove was probably The One That Got Away here; he’d have been a good leader in opposition at least, and probably a better PM as well.
Still, I daresay his diaries will make for good reading.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
The issue is that you need a mixture of capability and senior level experience - it's simply a political reality that a party in government is going to replace a sitting PM with one of a small number of already senior ministers or, at the extreme, with somebody currently outside the tent who has that experience previously. The only way an ingenue gets to be PM is to win it from leader of the opposition.
That narrows the field considerably, and given that Johnson had deliberately screened out anyone capable who might show him up, we were left with a choice from the numpties.
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
Went without cable TV? For his generation that would be a hardship for a child, particularly if most of his peers did have cable in their homes.
But yes, luxury. Speaking as one who grew up before cable TV was ubiquitous, and where you got three TV channels. And no broadcasts from midnight to 5am or thereabouts; should know for as a kid, used to get up early on Saturdays, watch TV test pattern for half-hour, then the national anthem with visuals of US Air Fore jets & similar, the actual programming - cartoons!
All this on a black and white TV. In distant mist of time, when UKers were still calling TV "the telly".
5am? Luxury. I remember when breakfast TV started. Before then you had to listen to the radio with your cornflakes
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
Quite. The contortions just justify his continued presence are getting absurd.
They brought this on themselves though. Their system for electing leaders is enormously flawed, and the patronage/loyalty approach has winnowed out actual talent from the Con front bench attritionally, particularly from Boris onwards.
The members would sooner have a Sir Edward Leigh type than an actual capable leader, and this is the leader of the *country* we’re talking about here. It’s less egregious in opposition but having a shit LOTO isn’t particularly good for the nation either.
Gove was probably The One That Got Away here; he’d have been a good leader in opposition at least, and probably a better PM as well.
Still, I daresay his diaries will make for good reading.
He really wouldn’t. Leaving aside the disaster he oversaw at Education or his drug habit, his views on foreign policy were so aggressive that even Liam Fox thought he was a bit weird.
I slept through all of this - was maybe vaguely aware in a semi conscious way. Same way you hear thunder in your dreams. I did hear the Iskander missile: woke me up. And then I quickly went back to sleep
“They were mass-attacking Ukraine with Shaheds and then missiles well into the early morning. Once it was all-clear everywhere else, #Odesa got hit by an Iskander-M (5 a.m).
6:15 - and here comes another alert for the entire country because Mig-31 has just taken off…”
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
I bought about 10 years to get my wife 50% pension, you coudl not make up the scams going on.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
Quite. The contortions just justify his continued presence are getting absurd.
They brought this on themselves though. Their system for electing leaders is enormously flawed, and the patronage/loyalty approach has winnowed out actual talent from the Con front bench attritionally, particularly from Boris onwards.
The members would sooner have a Sir Edward Leigh type than an actual capable leader, and this is the leader of the *country* we’re talking about here. It’s less egregious in opposition but having a shit LOTO isn’t particularly good for the nation either.
Gove was probably The One That Got Away here; he’d have been a good leader in opposition at least, and probably a better PM as well.
Still, I daresay his diaries will make for good reading.
He really wouldn’t. Leaving aside the disaster he oversaw at Education or his drug habit, his views on foreign policy were so aggressive that even Liam Fox thought he was a bit weird.
I guess I price all that in and still think he’d be better.
Although to paraphrase M Tucker, so would my left bollock with a smiley face drawn on it.
Morning all, Lord Ashcrofts latest poll (6 to 10 Jun) Lab 43 (-4) Con 21 (-2) Ref 15 (+4) LD 7 (+1) Green 7 (=)
The yougov in the header seems a bit anomalous, both the low Lab and the high LD score.
I was expecting a little bit of a polling fightback from the Tories, but they seem to be in a downward spiral. My betting position on 150-200 Tory seats and 26-28% is beginning to look a bit rash. I won't back out just yet.
Is there any chance for recovery? Or will Sunaks fecal Midas touch continue?
The Express front page - 100,000 migrants deported (makes a change from promising a free owl) that according to the Express is a Rishi Promise that “has fired up the General Election” - is that actually in the manifesto? What price tag is next to it?
No-one believes this would happen, even if they support it.
All pledges should be priced up though, just to be fair. What is the Price Tag for deporting 100,000 migrants to numerous countries under numerous deals?
The point being saying “I look the sound of that” but on learning the price, not liking it so much.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
Morning all, Lord Ashcrofts latest poll (6 to 10 Jun) Lab 43 (-4) Con 21 (-2) Ref 15 (+4) LD 7 (+1) Green 7 (=)
So despite the "nothing to see here", Farage is hurting Labour more than the Tories...
This election could yet end up with a completely fucked up outcome. Just depends on how much muscle-memory there is when former Tories get into the polling booth.
Then a hang glider from one of those giant step ladders.
He’s not gone zorbing yet.
I genuinely, unironically, think he and his party have played a blinder with this strategy. Fun BBQ dad is hard archetype to dislike. Helps that he does actually seem to be enjoying it as well - but it makes him stand out from the others.
You can easily see how it could have gone very wrong if he hadn't looked like he was enjoying himself. He'd be just another odd politician and people would be laughing at him, rather than with him.
Morning all, Lord Ashcrofts latest poll (6 to 10 Jun) Lab 43 (-4) Con 21 (-2) Ref 15 (+4) LD 7 (+1) Green 7 (=)
The yougov in the header seems a bit anomalous, both the low Lab and the high LD score.
I was expecting a little bit of a polling fightback from the Tories, but they seem to be in a downward spiral. My betting position on 150-200 Tory seats and 26-28% is beginning to look a bit rash. I won't back out just yet.
Is there any chance for recovery? Or will Sunaks fecal Midas touch continue?
I think if you take the recent polling in the round, its a Reform leap of about 3 points and Lab and Con down a bit in response. Obviously that hurts Con more as they are butter spread too thinly already. From this week, and postals, we get more accurare nowcasting but Ashcroft, for example, still has half 'not made up mind fully /might change'
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
Quite. The contortions just justify his continued presence are getting absurd.
They brought this on themselves though. Their system for electing leaders is enormously flawed, and the patronage/loyalty approach has winnowed out actual talent from the Con front bench attritionally, particularly from Boris onwards.
The members would sooner have a Sir Edward Leigh type than an actual capable leader, and this is the leader of the *country* we’re talking about here. It’s less egregious in opposition but having a shit LOTO isn’t particularly good for the nation either.
Gove was probably The One That Got Away here; he’d have been a good leader in opposition at least, and probably a better PM as well.
Still, I daresay his diaries will make for good reading.
It is not just front bench talent that was removed by Boris but also CCHQ and Number 10 which led to Partygate and Wallpapergate and Pinchergate (or was it TractorPorngate?) and who paid for Boris's holiday-gate and who sent him free meals-gate. Liz Truss followed suit which crashed the economy, and Rishi has what? His chief of staff is an old school chum who wrote for Gazette, not an experienced civil servant or hardened politician, and his digital guru is the same mate's wife's friend. https://www.tatler.com/article/special-advisers-rishi-sunak
In the interests of political balance, you can probably trace this back through Cameron to Blair and New Labour.
Sunak has no political sense, so almost anyone would be better. Truss being the exception, lacking any awareness of others whatsoever.
If I had to pick a leader from Tories to lead a difficult election campaign, I would have drafted Hague into a safe seat. Of the current crop of MPs, someone combining prime ministerial gravitas (able to dominate the party), political antennae and ideally experience of no nonsense street fighting opposition politics.
A tough ask. None of the current cabinet have that.
Morning all, Lord Ashcrofts latest poll (6 to 10 Jun) Lab 43 (-4) Con 21 (-2) Ref 15 (+4) LD 7 (+1) Green 7 (=)
The yougov in the header seems a bit anomalous, both the low Lab and the high LD score.
I was expecting a little bit of a polling fightback from the Tories, but they seem to be in a downward spiral. My betting position on 150-200 Tory seats and 26-28% is beginning to look a bit rash. I won't back out just yet.
Is there any chance for recovery? Or will Sunaks fecal Midas touch continue?
I think the aggregate *feels* right, and the slight drop for Labour makes sense as; A) the profile of Reform has probably moved some Con-Lab switchers to Con-Ref People are starting to actually consider how they will vote, which would appreciably add a pp or two to the LDs at Labour’s expense from people who like me want the Cons out but will be voting LD to achieve it.
And
C) while by comparison to the neverending multi-vehicle pileup of Rishi’s campaign basically everyone else looks good, Starmer is not Blair, he isn’t bringing energy and optimism. The point upthread about trust in politicians being at record low is important here; Brexit yes but I maintain that the expenses scandal was a watershed for this shift and we’re still feeling the consequences of it.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
I'm watching the Scottish Leaders debate on catchup. Wowsers. John Swinney is an unhappy chappy. Keeps being called out for all of the austerity and cuts his government have imposed. And the defence? "Westminster". He's a bit prickly!
He was awful! I hate to say it, but Lorna Slater was best, followed by Alex Cole-Hamilton. The audience had been chosen at random from the Glasgow Labour Party social club - after happy hour!
This was the big moment with the biggest applause. And reflects what we are hearing on the doors across Aberdeenshire:
It was shocking last night to actually see the bunch of dross that run Scotland. ACH an absolute FUD, Slater a deranged halfwit and the 3 stooges lying useless snakeoil barstewards. Combined brains of a donkey between the 5 of them, Scotland is as F**ked as the UK if not worse.
£4800 on your mortgage seems a bit of a stretch. I don't see another substantial increase in interest rates any time soon. They are, if anything, edging down in the gilt markets.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
The clip doesn't show the workings, but £4800 is £100 a month for four years. That's not that much on rates rising, or falling more slowly than otherwise.
I'm not sure that's a good mathematical convention, but it's the Conservatives' preferred one, so hey ho.
Good morning. This is revenge by Labour and a bit of trolling.
Not for the £2k tax lie. No, more on the nose than that. It’s exactly the same arithmetic the Tories used in attack ads to claim the £28 billion green prosperity fund pledge would cost everyone £2k in mortgage increases, a few months ago.
Conservatives are moaning of course, because they don’t like being hoist by their own petards.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
Quite. The contortions just justify his continued presence are getting absurd.
They brought this on themselves though. Their system for electing leaders is enormously flawed, and the patronage/loyalty approach has winnowed out actual talent from the Con front bench attritionally, particularly from Boris onwards.
The members would sooner have a Sir Edward Leigh type than an actual capable leader, and this is the leader of the *country* we’re talking about here. It’s less egregious in opposition but having a shit LOTO isn’t particularly good for the nation either.
Gove was probably The One That Got Away here; he’d have been a good leader in opposition at least, and probably a better PM as well.
Still, I daresay his diaries will make for good reading.
He really wouldn’t. Leaving aside the disaster he oversaw at Education or his drug habit, his views on foreign policy were so aggressive that even Liam Fox thought he was a bit weird.
I guess I price all that in and still think he’d be better.
Although to paraphrase M Tucker, so would my left bollock with a smiley face drawn on it.
There is, however, a difference between 'a good leader' and 'better than the alternative.'
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
But Brexit happened because of underlying distrust. Brexit is a symptom not a cause.
It's both.
2016 happened in part because of an underlying unhappiness with the political class. But the nature of the 2016 vote and its fallout made that distrust worse.
Back to D-day-ITV interview-gate again, which I know we've done to death but still baffles me. Surely D-day memorials have been planned in for ages? Since long before the election? Why didn't he just schedule his ITV meeting around his existing commitments? For pretty much all of the campaign period he's almost totally in charge of his diary, apart from that slot. It was clearly a choice to leave early to do an iTV interview which he thought would be a net positive. Like his choice of choosing Manchester as his location to announce the cancellation of HS2 to Manchester. It wasn't something he was forced into, it's something he thought would make him look good. He may or may not be the worst PM since Brown, but he's certainly the strangest. And at least Brown knew straight away that bigoted-woman gate sounded bad. Rishi gives every impression of having genuinely no idea what does or doesn't show him in a good light. Doubly strange given the clearly highly curated but quite slick image of himself he portrayed while at the Treasury. The only plausible explanation I have is that someone pretty good in charge of his image has been replaced by someone either astonishingly terrible or actively malign.
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
How could it be anything else ?
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
The collapse of political trust is about not trusting politicians to deliver on what they say, so that’s a bit different to the Iraq war or Post Office scandal. But it is related to how Brexit was promoted as this thing that would transform the country… and then it didn’t. (Although, yes, Brexit comes out as a response to the GFC.)
Sunak has no political sense, so almost anyone would be better. Truss being the exception, lacking any awareness of others whatsoever.
If I had to pick a leader from Tories to lead a difficult election campaign, I would have drafted Hague into a safe seat. Of the current crop of MPs, someone combining prime ministerial gravitas (able to dominate the party), political antennae and ideally experience of no nonsense street fighting opposition politics.
A tough ask. None of the current cabinet have that.
Sunak has no political sense, so almost anyone would be better. Truss being the exception, lacking any awareness of others whatsoever.
If I had to pick a leader from Tories to lead a difficult election campaign, I would have drafted Hague into a safe seat. Of the current crop of MPs, someone combining prime ministerial gravitas (able to dominate the party), political antennae and ideally experience of no nonsense street fighting opposition politics.
A tough ask. None of the current cabinet have that.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Probably Kemi would have been best, despite her inexperience.
Mordaunt would have been found out very quickly and Hunt wouldn't have been much better because he only talks Surrey.
£4800 on your mortgage seems a bit of a stretch. I don't see another substantial increase in interest rates any time soon. They are, if anything, edging down in the gilt markets.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
The clip doesn't show the workings, but £4800 is £100 a month for four years. That's not that much on rates rising, or falling more slowly than otherwise.
I'm not sure that's a good mathematical convention, but it's the Conservatives' preferred one, so hey ho.
Oh right. Well, it is possible that higher borrowing will drive interest rates up by enough for that. Our 10 year gilts are already a full percent higher than most of Europe's, mainly because we are less good at controlling inflation (cheers, BoE, a cracking job you did there. Again.)
Political arithmetic by all the parties is not much more than fantasy these days. Hasn't ever really recovered from Brown and his multiple reannouncements of the same spending and the grossing up of multiple years payments. If anything its getting worse. No wonder people just switch off.
My impression is that Europe has been (slightly) better on the whole at keeping energy prices lower. I don't think this is down to interest rates, so I don't think BOE rate rises or not rate rises have had the biggest impact.
In Europe they chose to make the companies keep rates down rather than funnelling billions of public money to their chums and sticking the bill on the public like the Tories did .
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only. PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
I had a dream last night that the Tories were on 10% in a poll.
How absurd I thought on waking up. Then I saw TwiX:
PM: Gosh! Hello! Sorry to have kept you ITV: You've been in Normandy PM: Yeah IT ALL JUST RAN OVER. It was incredible but IT JUST RAN OVER EVERYTHING
10% might be at the top end of their ambitions.
It is not just that Team Rishi saw Normandy as a PITA, or that they failed to see leaving early would offend people voters, but they did not even have the political nous to see it as the greatest photo-op of the last few years: Rishi mingling with other heads of government and heads of state, including the President of the United States, with no headlines about policy disagreements.
Labour knew, which is why Keir Starmer wangled an invitation to Normandy to be photographed shaking hands with Presidents Macron and Zelensky.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
I disagree,..... from the FT some years back " The satellite dishes spread on walls and rooftops like a fungus, a plague of space-facing mushrooms. This proliferation quickly became synonymous with working class neighbourhoods, an identifier as apparently powerful as a St George’s flag draped in a window, plastic kids’ furniture fading in the front garden and lacy net curtains. The comfortably-off dwelling in conservation areas disdained these plastic pimples and a raft of regulation emerged outlining exactly how, where and under what conditions satellite dishes in genteel areas might be installed".....
I expect the Tory/Reform vote to stay split, and not lead to a May 2019 style collapse in favour of the latter, because that was about Getting Brexit Done whereas this is a values split in the centre-right coalition for a GE. And I think Reform has a ceiling on that.
I'm certainly not voting Reform. I'm a fairly right-wing Conservative, but I am still a Conservative and I don't particularly like them or their brand of politics. The dogwhistling over Rishi leaving D-Day early because "he doesn't understand our culture" being just one aspect.
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
But Brexit happened because of underlying distrust. Brexit is a symptom not a cause.
To throw something onto the fire, the way the U.K. governments failed to give its citizens a say on Europe from the seventies up to 2016 didn’t help either. Most if not all other countries voted in referenda on substantial changes in the EU. We were denied the chance and had seems such as Gordon Brown scuttling in through a side door with no cameras to sign treaties. It was no great surprise that when finally given a say, an awful lot of people said no thanks.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
I disagree,..... from the FT some years back " The satellite dishes spread on walls and rooftops like a fungus, a plague of space-facing mushrooms. This proliferation quickly became synonymous with working class neighbourhoods, an identifier as apparently powerful as a St George’s flag draped in a window, plastic kids’ furniture fading in the front garden and lacy net curtains. The comfortably-off dwelling in conservation areas disdained these plastic pimples and a raft of regulation emerged outlining exactly how, where and under what conditions satellite dishes in genteel areas might be installed".....
Based on GDP figures Reeves is demanding change, but at the same time she's sticking like a limpet to to Hunts economic plans.
Pledging a handbrake turn might frighten the horses. Far better to tell folk that you will continue until you get to an appropriate place to execute a turn in the road. It’s political caution, you can argue over whether that’s correct but clearly Labour believe it is beneficial to them.
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
But Brexit happened because of underlying distrust. Brexit is a symptom not a cause.
To throw something onto the fire, the way the U.K. governments failed to give its citizens a say on Europe from the seventies up to 2016 didn’t help either. Most if not all other countries voted in referenda on substantial changes in the EU. We were denied the chance and had seems such as Gordon Brown scuttling in through a side door with no cameras to sign treaties. It was no great surprise that when finally given a say, an awful lot of people said no thanks.
Although it is worth remembering that when they did have such votes and they gave the 'wrong' results the EU tended to force reruns or just ignore them. Ireland, France, the Netherlands and Greece all felt the strain.
The big exception was Denmark's referendum on the Euro.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
Quite. The contortions just justify his continued presence are getting absurd.
They brought this on themselves though. Their system for electing leaders is enormously flawed, and the patronage/loyalty approach has winnowed out actual talent from the Con front bench attritionally, particularly from Boris onwards.
The members would sooner have a Sir Edward Leigh type than an actual capable leader, and this is the leader of the *country* we’re talking about here. It’s less egregious in opposition but having a shit LOTO isn’t particularly good for the nation either.
Gove was probably The One That Got Away here; he’d have been a good leader in opposition at least, and probably a better PM as well.
Still, I daresay his diaries will make for good reading.
He really wouldn’t. Leaving aside the disaster he oversaw at Education or his drug habit, his views on foreign policy were so aggressive that even Liam Fox thought he was a bit weird.
I guess I price all that in and still think he’d be better.
Although to paraphrase M Tucker, so would my left bollock with a smiley face drawn on it.
There is, however, a difference between 'a good leader' and 'better than the alternative.'
Agreed, and I honourably retract in the face of your comprehensive and concise argument.
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
How could it be anything else ?
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
To quote from the BBC article:
"The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust."
It seems that its only on PB Leavers still believe in Brexit.
I don't think your third para follows from your second. I'd say the process has been:
Electorate: Why aren't you doing what we want? Political class: EU won't let us. Electorate: OK, let's leave the EU then. Now will you do what we want? Political class: No.
Based on GDP figures Reeves is demanding change, but at the same time she's sticking like a limpet to to Hunts economic plans.
Pledging a handbrake turn might frighten the horses. Far better to tell folk that you will continue until you get to an appropriate place to execute a turn in the road. It’s political caution, you can argue over whether that’s correct but clearly Labour believe it is beneficial to them.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only. PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
Same reason that @Leon spends most of his time on his holibobs trolling on PB and scouring the less salubrious parts of MAGA twitter.
Comments
Sky News is also the best news channel (although that is damning by faint praise).
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
Jeepers, what is this guy doing in Politics, or public life at all? He's in the wrong frigging job!
I tipped ahead of the curve both the betting value that he would be Prime Minister, and that he should not be Prime Minister too.
I'm not sure that's a good mathematical convention, but it's the Conservatives' preferred one, so hey ho.
The political stupidity was recording an interview a week in advance in a fast-moving campaign.
Turned a corner?
Political arithmetic by all the parties is not much more than fantasy these days. Hasn't ever really recovered from Brown and his multiple reannouncements of the same spending and the grossing up of multiple years payments. If anything its getting worse. No wonder people just switch off.
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
Maybe that's just my good work environment speaking. I'd never expect someone to apologise for taking time off because of a funeral/childcare/illness - just an explanation.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
I genuinely, unironically, think he and his party have played a blinder with this strategy. Fun BBQ dad is hard archetype to dislike. Helps that he does actually seem to be enjoying it as well - but it makes him stand out from the others.
In another tribute to the Lib Dem surge Labour promises to fix a million potholes a year. Presumably starting in Blackburn, Lancashire whose holes have been notorious since the 1960s.
It’s not as if ITV News wouldn’t have jumped to the PM’s schedule any time he wanted, if Downing St or CCHQ had said we can do 3am, there would have been a studio full of people waiting at 2am.
As for your final point, you may well be right. The polls don't have to shift far from where they are to make it so.
“They were mass-attacking Ukraine with Shaheds and then missiles well into the early morning. Once it was all-clear everywhere else, #Odesa got hit by an Iskander-M (5 a.m).
6:15 - and here comes another alert for the entire country because Mig-31 has just taken off…”
https://x.com/oscdomesticated/status/1800731940032794944?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Amazing how quickly you get used to stuff like this
The members would sooner have a Sir Edward Leigh type than an actual capable leader, and this is the leader of the *country* we’re talking about here. It’s less egregious in opposition but having a shit LOTO isn’t particularly good for the nation either.
Gove was probably The One That Got Away here; he’d have been a good leader in opposition at least, and probably a better PM as well.
Still, I daresay his diaries will make for good reading.
That narrows the field considerably, and given that Johnson had deliberately screened out anyone capable who might show him up, we were left with a choice from the numpties.
Lab 43 (-4)
Con 21 (-2)
Ref 15 (+4)
LD 7 (+1)
Green 7 (=)
I mean, she doesn’t set the world afire, but equally I can’t see she is axiomatically terrible to so many people.
But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
Although to paraphrase M Tucker, so would my left bollock with a smiley face drawn on it.
I was expecting a little bit of a polling fightback from the Tories, but they seem to be in a downward spiral. My betting position on 150-200 Tory seats and 26-28% is beginning to look a bit rash. I won't back out just yet.
Is there any chance for recovery? Or will Sunaks fecal Midas touch continue?
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-eric-ciotti-assume-un-accord-avec-le-rn-les-republicains-au-bord-de-l-implosion-20240611
This election could yet end up with a completely fucked up outcome. Just depends on how much muscle-memory there is when former Tories get into the polling booth.
From this week, and postals, we get more accurare nowcasting but Ashcroft, for example, still has half 'not made up mind fully /might change'
How absurd I thought on waking up. Then I saw TwiX:
PM: Gosh! Hello! Sorry to have kept you
ITV: You've been in Normandy
PM: Yeah IT ALL JUST RAN OVER. It was incredible but IT JUST RAN OVER EVERYTHING
10% might be at the top end of their ambitions.
That's a brave policy. Let's see how it pans out
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
https://www.tatler.com/article/special-advisers-rishi-sunak
In the interests of political balance, you can probably trace this back through Cameron to Blair and New Labour.
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
If I had to pick a leader from Tories to lead a difficult election campaign, I would have drafted Hague into a safe seat. Of the current crop of MPs, someone combining prime ministerial gravitas (able to dominate the party), political antennae and ideally experience of no nonsense street fighting opposition politics.
A tough ask. None of the current cabinet have that.
A) the profile of Reform has probably moved some Con-Lab switchers to Con-Ref
And
C) while by comparison to the neverending multi-vehicle pileup of Rishi’s campaign basically everyone else looks good, Starmer is not Blair, he isn’t bringing energy and optimism. The point upthread about trust in politicians being at record low is important here; Brexit yes but I maintain that the expenses scandal was a watershed for this shift and we’re still feeling the consequences of it.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Combined brains of a donkey between the 5 of them, Scotland is as F**ked as the UK if not worse.
Not for the £2k tax lie. No, more on the nose than that. It’s exactly the same arithmetic the Tories used in attack ads to claim the £28 billion green prosperity fund pledge would cost everyone £2k in mortgage increases, a few months ago.
Conservatives are moaning of course, because they don’t like being hoist by their own petards.
Based on GDP figures Reeves is demanding change, but at the same time she's sticking like a limpet to to Hunts economic plans.
2016 happened in part because of an underlying unhappiness with the political class. But the nature of the 2016 vote and its fallout made that distrust worse.
Self-reinforcing doom loop.
Surely D-day memorials have been planned in for ages? Since long before the election? Why didn't he just schedule his ITV meeting around his existing commitments? For pretty much all of the campaign period he's almost totally in charge of his diary, apart from that slot. It was clearly a choice to leave early to do an iTV interview which he thought would be a net positive.
Like his choice of choosing Manchester as his location to announce the cancellation of HS2 to Manchester. It wasn't something he was forced into, it's something he thought would make him look good.
He may or may not be the worst PM since Brown, but he's certainly the strangest.
And at least Brown knew straight away that bigoted-woman gate sounded bad. Rishi gives every impression of having genuinely no idea what does or doesn't show him in a good light.
Doubly strange given the clearly highly curated but quite slick image of himself he portrayed while at the Treasury.
The only plausible explanation I have is that someone pretty good in charge of his image has been replaced by someone either astonishingly terrible or actively malign.
Hope that helps!
"The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust."
It seems that its only on PB Leavers still believe in Brexit.
Mordaunt would have been found out very quickly and Hunt wouldn't have been much better because he only talks Surrey.
PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
https://x.com/PickardJE/status/1800777337434255645
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker Series for @GMB - Poll 1/4. Full Constituency Ballot Prompt:
CON 23%
LAB - 41%
LD- 10%
REF - 12%
GRE - 6%
SNP - 3%
Others - 4%
f/w 5-11 June, 60% of f/w conducted 10-11 June.
Labour knew, which is why Keir Starmer wangled an invitation to Normandy to be photographed shaking hands with Presidents Macron and Zelensky.
The satellite dishes spread on walls and rooftops like a fungus, a plague of space-facing mushrooms. This proliferation quickly became synonymous with working class neighbourhoods, an identifier as apparently powerful as a St George’s flag draped in a window, plastic kids’ furniture fading in the front garden and lacy net curtains. The comfortably-off dwelling in conservation areas disdained these plastic pimples and a raft of regulation emerged outlining exactly how, where and under what conditions satellite dishes in genteel areas might be installed".....
I'm certainly not voting Reform. I'm a fairly right-wing Conservative, but I am still a Conservative and I don't particularly like them or their brand of politics. The dogwhistling over Rishi leaving D-Day early because "he doesn't understand our culture" being just one aspect.
It was no great surprise that when finally given a say, an awful lot of people said no thanks.
@Survation
As we see with our online interview only polling, Keir Starmer continues to lead Rishi Sunak on the "best Prime Minister" question:
Which of the following party leaders do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Keir Starmer - 42%
Rishi Sunak - 27%
Don’t know - 30%
The big exception was Denmark's referendum on the Euro.
Let him run about being Boris up North
Electorate: Why aren't you doing what we want?
Political class: EU won't let us.
Electorate: OK, let's leave the EU then. Now will you do what we want?
Political class: No.
You can see why distrust grows.
57 vs 35 for the blocs. “Other” and SNP doing relatively well.