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Punters unmoved by YouGov showing Labour dropping into the 30s – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
imagePunters unmoved by YouGov showing Labour dropping into the 30s – politicalbetting.com

Tories could soon be fourth. https://t.co/zBJY40N6yi

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 194
    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926
    LibDem surge into second....soon!
  • Options
    The reason many of us have felt the Lab lead would slip is the unwind of tactical voting. This poll is the first to show that - those Lab votes have gone to the Lib Dems. One poll is one poll and YG are notoriously flighty but we will see.

    As for the hung Parliament it is very possible to win a big majority with only 35% of the vote if the remaining votes are scattered all over the shop. The fact the Cons are on 18% is the defining factor there. They need 30% at least to have a chance of derailing Lab's victory parade
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11
    Is the move to Lib Dem's real? Is it because of Ed The Unknown Stuntman Davey? Is it because the Tories campaign is so bad lefties feel safe to go with another party? What would have happened if Farage hadn't entered the race and the Tories not spend every day shooting themselves in the feet?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    To be honest, much though I'd love YouGov to be the start of a trend of a surge for the LDs, it's probably no more than one of those polls conducted after an LD by-election win.

    It's likely an outlier on that measure but where it leaves Conservative and Reform I don't know. Three weeks on Thursday.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    Shock News: Poll showing near 300 seat Labour majority doesn't bring down the market's view on the chances of Labour majority.

    Seriously though NOM is now worth a punt, as Laura K keeps reminding us, there's a long way to go.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Move to LDs might not be real, but it's all another day when a Tory recovery is definitely not real.

    I think Farage's impact is ensuring the upper end of Reform scores rather than the lower end as might have been the case with a competent Tory campaign.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    Re: upthread comments, think CB is more on target than . . . ahem . . . FU.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034
    edited June 11
    Sorry for my ignorance, but I'm struck by RochdalePioneer's comments on the previous thread about his seat in Aberdeenshire. Who exactly are they/you and which seat? I'm trying to understand if they are talking up a big SNP collapse or a Scottish Tory collapse.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    I don't like 38%.

    I do like 18%.

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    novanova Posts: 600

    The reason many of us have felt the Lab lead would slip is the unwind of tactical voting. This poll is the first to show that - those Lab votes have gone to the Lib Dems. One poll is one poll and YG are notoriously flighty but we will see.

    As for the hung Parliament it is very possible to win a big majority with only 35% of the vote if the remaining votes are scattered all over the shop. The fact the Cons are on 18% is the defining factor there. They need 30% at least to have a chance of derailing Lab's victory parade

    With Reform potentially polling 15-20% and still only in the picture for 2 or 3 seats, then high 30s might be as good as it gets.

    Could this be the first GE with four parties over 10%? Not sure that's happened before.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    Older data, as you were
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph SAVANTA

    📈19pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 44 (-2)
    🌳Con 25 (-1)
    ➡️Reform 10 (-1)
    🔶LD 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4 (+1)

    2,219 UK adults, 7-9 June

    (chg from 5-7 June)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Easy. Labour lead by 20% in this poll and by miles in all polls. That would inevitably translate into an enormous majority and that's similarly true for 38/18 as for 48/28.

    Meanwhile time ticks relentlessly on. If a team leads in a football match, the odds on them winning will relentlessly shorten as the clock ticks towards full time, and the odds on defeat or a draw will relentlessly lengthen.
    What you don't want to do is cash out like that bloke the other week that cost him £800k.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    Quincel said:

    Sorry for my ignorance, but I'm struck by RochdalePioneer's comments on the previous thread about his seat in Aberdeenshire. Who exactly are they/you and which seat? I'm trying to understand if they are talking up a big SNP collapse or a Scottish Tory collapse.

    He's running in Aberdeenshire North & Moray East. Or is it visa versa?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11

    Older data, as you were
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph SAVANTA

    📈19pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 44 (-2)
    🌳Con 25 (-1)
    ➡️Reform 10 (-1)
    🔶LD 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4 (+1)

    2,219 UK adults, 7-9 June

    (chg from 5-7 June)

    There is little comfort for the Tories even if you play the game of lowest Labour, highest Tory vote share. The Tories have smashed up the bedrock of the 30% foundations and no sign they are going to get any swingback towards it.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132

    Is the move to Lib Dem's real? Is it because of Ed The Unknown Stuntman Davey? Is it because the Tories campaign is so bad lefties feel safe to go with another party? What would have happened if Farage hadn't entered the race and the Tories not spend every day shooting themselves in the feet?

    There’s a point. If LibDem HQ doesn’t release a montage to the Fall Guy theme, then they are asleep at the wheel.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Shhhh. If we say her name three times….
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Interesting that Baxtering the YouGov poll gives 5 Reform. 3 of them look sensible, Clacton, Ashfield, Boston & Skegness, 1 seems plausible Wellingborough & Rushden and the 5th is Rochdale?!?

    Nooooooooooooooooooooooo.

    I do NOT want a Reform MP when the whole region has flipped to Labour.
    A few more percent on their score and there could be a bunch of them in that region.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11
    biggles said:

    Is the move to Lib Dem's real? Is it because of Ed The Unknown Stuntman Davey? Is it because the Tories campaign is so bad lefties feel safe to go with another party? What would have happened if Farage hadn't entered the race and the Tories not spend every day shooting themselves in the feet?

    There’s a point. If LibDem HQ doesn’t release a montage to the Fall Guy theme, then they are asleep at the wheel.
    They are a bit unlucky that the reboot flopped so badly, so it is only those in their 40/50s who remember the original with its iconic theme tune.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034

    Quincel said:

    Sorry for my ignorance, but I'm struck by RochdalePioneer's comments on the previous thread about his seat in Aberdeenshire. Who exactly are they/you and which seat? I'm trying to understand if they are talking up a big SNP collapse or a Scottish Tory collapse.

    He's running in Aberdeenshire North & Moray East. Or is it visa versa?
    Ah, I see. A two-horse race where voters may well want both to lose.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118

    Older data, as you were
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph SAVANTA

    📈19pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 44 (-2)
    🌳Con 25 (-1)
    ➡️Reform 10 (-1)
    🔶LD 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4 (+1)

    2,219 UK adults, 7-9 June

    (chg from 5-7 June)

    There is little comfort for the Tories even if you play the game of lowest Labour, highest Tory vote share. The Tories have smashed up the bedrock of the 30% foundations and no sign they are going to get any swingback towards it.
    They are going to struggle to get Labour '83 but that's probably now the target
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,457
    I think Ed Davey needs to do some wake boarding.

    Then a hang glider from one of those giant step ladders.
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    nova said:

    The reason many of us have felt the Lab lead would slip is the unwind of tactical voting. This poll is the first to show that - those Lab votes have gone to the Lib Dems. One poll is one poll and YG are notoriously flighty but we will see.

    As for the hung Parliament it is very possible to win a big majority with only 35% of the vote if the remaining votes are scattered all over the shop. The fact the Cons are on 18% is the defining factor there. They need 30% at least to have a chance of derailing Lab's victory parade

    With Reform potentially polling 15-20% and still only in the picture for 2 or 3 seats, then high 30s might be as good as it gets.

    Could this be the first GE with four parties over 10%? Not sure that's happened before.
    1918 with Liberal/National Liberal divide.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    MattW said:

    I think Ed Davey needs to do some wake boarding.

    Then a hang glider from one of those giant step ladders.

    Plenty of ideas here...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dj9ev40C30M
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    Count 18 in Dublin done, Daly's vote went +11k to SF, +5k to Lab, +4.5k to Niall Boylan, +3k to Greens +2k FF, +2k FG. So Greens excluded.

    Think that SF are now effectively elected and it's the Green votes putting FF and FG over quota that will decide between Niall Boylan and Labour. The surplus reallocation will be from the last batch of transfers isn't it?

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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    edited June 11

    Older data, as you were
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph SAVANTA

    📈19pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 44 (-2)
    🌳Con 25 (-1)
    ➡️Reform 10 (-1)
    🔶LD 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4 (+1)

    2,219 UK adults, 7-9 June

    (chg from 5-7 June)

    This was from last week before the LD manifesto launch, though, as you say.

    I get the feeling that the LibDem social care and single market policies might be catching the imagination of some, plus Ed Davey larking about in a gorilla suit. They may be starting to look like a more friendly and directly honest party to many audiences.
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    DM_Andy said:

    Shock News: Poll showing near 300 seat Labour majority doesn't bring down the market's view on the chances of Labour majority.

    Seriously though NOM is now worth a punt, as Laura K keeps reminding us, there's a long way to go.

    The alternative view is there are days to go and people decided they wanted a change many months ago.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132

    biggles said:

    Is the move to Lib Dem's real? Is it because of Ed The Unknown Stuntman Davey? Is it because the Tories campaign is so bad lefties feel safe to go with another party? What would have happened if Farage hadn't entered the race and the Tories not spend every day shooting themselves in the feet?

    There’s a point. If LibDem HQ doesn’t release a montage to the Fall Guy theme, then they are asleep at the wheel.
    They are a bit unlucky that the reboot flopped so badly, so it is only those in their 40/50s who remember the original with its iconic theme tune.
    On a similar theme, since they are in trouble and no one else can help, I assume the Tories know there’s only one thing left to do…
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    I don't care who Brian is...

    LibDem Screamed At For Dropping Off Election "Junk Mail"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZcQt-p0BoY
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290
    edited June 11
    @RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290

    Older data, as you were
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph SAVANTA

    📈19pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 44 (-2)
    🌳Con 25 (-1)
    ➡️Reform 10 (-1)
    🔶LD 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4 (+1)

    2,219 UK adults, 7-9 June

    (chg from 5-7 June)

    This was from last week before the LD manifesto launch, though, as you say.

    I get the feeling that the LibDem social care and single market policies might be catching the imagination of some, plus Ed Davey larking about in a gorilla suit. They may be starting to look like a more friendly and directly honest party to many audiences.
    It would be nice to think that peeps have seen Ed Davey's focus on social care and thought thank god someone is talking about something that matters in this election.

    Instead of whose made-up tax numbers are the bigger lie.

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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034

    Quincel said:

    Sorry for my ignorance, but I'm struck by RochdalePioneer's comments on the previous thread about his seat in Aberdeenshire. Who exactly are they/you and which seat? I'm trying to understand if they are talking up a big SNP collapse or a Scottish Tory collapse.

    Good evening. I’m the LibDem candidate in Aberdeenshire North & Moray East. Seat should have been a hold for the Tories - even with the general collapse nationwide because of the simultaneous collapse of the SNP.

    And then they ousted David Duguid with both the Tory MSPs and Banff & Buchan Conservatives launching Operation Samson on the usurper Douglas 4 Jobs Ross. He had to announce he would quit Holyrood and then quit the leadership. And I doubt we’re done - awkward interview with Sky refusing to say if he’ll quit as an authorised Tory candidate if they do him for expenses.

    On the doors? Tory last time voters utterly disgusted - by both national and local events. D-Day raised over and over. And SNP last time voters citing broken promises and crap public services.

    And we’re getting the same in the neighbouring constituencies - an absolute sultry rebellious mood of people wanting to protest vote against the government(s).

    What will happen? God knows. Labour are paper only and supportive of me (I know, he told me). Reform nobody have heard from. And Ross - assuming he is still the Tory candidate - is so far refusing to do the hustings next Thursday…
    Good lord! And good luck.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11
    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    Is the move to Lib Dem's real? Is it because of Ed The Unknown Stuntman Davey? Is it because the Tories campaign is so bad lefties feel safe to go with another party? What would have happened if Farage hadn't entered the race and the Tories not spend every day shooting themselves in the feet?

    There’s a point. If LibDem HQ doesn’t release a montage to the Fall Guy theme, then they are asleep at the wheel.
    They are a bit unlucky that the reboot flopped so badly, so it is only those in their 40/50s who remember the original with its iconic theme tune.
    On a similar theme, since they are in trouble and no one else can help, I assume the Tories know there’s only one thing left to do…
    If you have a problem, if no one else can help, and if you can find them, maybe you can hire...The
    A Useless Team. They certainly have plenty of Howling Mad Murdock policies.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,040
    The LDs clearly got a bounce from their manifesto, mainly at Labour's expense based on the Yougov poll.

    I suspect the Tories may get a few younger and middle aged voters back from Labour after their manifesto today. Not much in it not already mentioned but the NI cut and abolition for the self employed and stamp duty cut for first time buyers clearly targeted at that demographic
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    MattW said:

    I think Ed Davey needs to do some wake boarding.

    Then a hang glider from one of those giant step ladders.

    Correction: feel sure you must mean, "I think Ed Davey needs to do some WOKE boarding."
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993
    edited June 11

    @RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

    Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

    EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    edited June 11

    @RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

    I'm looking at LD/Lab/Con three-ways, places like Maidenhead where despite on paper it being close between the main parties I know that one of LD/Lab are not really trying. People bet on the polls, UNS definitely can't pick it up and even MRPs won't be great at picking it up, so there should be an edge. I'm hoping someone puts in the effort to do a spreadsheet like the Brexit one to judge whether parties are over/under performing their polling and a few demographic bits so there may be opportunities downstream at 3 or 4am when we get a good idea of how tactical voting is working.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286

    The reason many of us have felt the Lab lead would slip is the unwind of tactical voting. This poll is the first to show that - those Lab votes have gone to the Lib Dems. One poll is one poll and YG are notoriously flighty but we will see.

    As for the hung Parliament it is very possible to win a big majority with only 35% of the vote if the remaining votes are scattered all over the shop. The fact the Cons are on 18% is the defining factor there. They need 30% at least to have a chance of derailing Lab's victory parade

    Also they're going to lose support in some of their safest seats to fringe candidates.
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    RattersRatters Posts: 893
    I think what is happening is:

    1) No one really wants the Tories to win. Probably even most of their own voters think they need some time out, but will vote for them out of loyalty/habit/dislike of Labour. And, importantly, no one thinks they will win.

    2) No one is enthused by Labour, which is not particularly surprising given they've run the most safe, boring campaign ever. Worth giving them a go over the Tories? Sure. Chanting Starmer's name at Glastonbury later this month? Not a chance.

    3) People are willing to vote for a third party (Lib Dems, Reform, Greens) given they are sure the Tories will lose and aren't enthused by Labour. What's the harm? Farage if your idea of fun is a cigarette and a pint down Spoons, Davey if you would rather be paddleboarding, Greens if you don't approve of fun. Something for everyone.

    Or it's just polling margin of error. Who knows.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    One thing I will say for this election, it has shown that the privacy policies I have set on social media are working. Not one single political advert seen. Makes a nice change.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    It’s the high Green figure from some pollsters that is the outlier share that puts Labour below the 42/43 they will at very least get. Lib Dem’s can actually get 15/16 - they had an alliance with the greens recently, many green votes will TV Lib Dem, Green and Lib Dem TV Labour. Some Labour TV Lib Dem, but not green on basis you TV to stop Tory winning and not many Green openings there. Labour could get Ref anti Tory TV too in places - it’s not simply ideological far right certain to back other right, it’s more subtle and based on anger against long time sitting government and how pathetic their leaders are.

    It is time to talk TV.

    I have just finished Cathedral by the Sea, and it cheered me up, after all this Conservative Party EVE day after day.

    The Tory manifesto is a horror show, both uninspiring and dodgy income streams, in large measure. Horrible.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,318

    @RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

    Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

    EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
    Well, good luck. I’d vote for the best pro-Union candidate, if I lived in Scotland.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    The risk for Labour is the force pulling the Tories down is evolving towards an anti establishment tear them all down.

    I suspect that’s a force that will weaken come polling day, when the choice becomes real and personal, but it could be a bumpy ride.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,249
    biggles said:

    One thing I will say for this election, it has shown that the privacy policies I have set on social media are working. Not one single political advert seen. Makes a nice change.

    Are there many? I thought the Tories had run out of money?
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290
    Chameleon said:

    @RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

    I'm looking at LD/Lab/Con three-ways, places like Maidenhead where despite on paper it being close between the main parties I know that one of LD/Lab are not really trying. People bet on the polls, UNS definitely can't pick it up and even MRPs won't be great at picking it up, so there should be an edge. I'm hoping someone puts in the effort to do a spreadsheet like the Brexit one to judge whether parties are over/under performing their polling and a few demographic bits so there may be opportunities downstream at 3 or 4am when we get a good idea of how tactical voting is working.
    This would be a resource that us PBers could massively do with - I'd certainly get involved in helping make it.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,249
    Ratters said:

    I think what is happening is:

    1) No one really wants the Tories to win. Probably even most of their own voters think they need some time out, but will vote for them out of loyalty/habit/dislike of Labour. And, importantly, no one thinks they will win.

    2) No one is enthused by Labour, which is not particularly surprising given they've run the most safe, boring campaign ever. Worth giving them a go over the Tories? Sure. Chanting Starmer's name at Glastonbury later this month? Not a chance.

    3) People are willing to vote for a third party (Lib Dems, Reform, Greens) given they are sure the Tories will lose and aren't enthused by Labour. What's the harm? Farage if your idea of fun is a cigarette and a pint down Spoons, Davey if you would rather be paddleboarding, Greens if you don't approve of fun. Something for everyone.

    Or it's just polling margin of error. Who knows.

    A period in politics without a Cult of Personality would be quite welcome
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290
    edited June 11
    We speak a lot about 'that 60+ lifelong tory voter who was massively annoyed by Partygate' - they will have been likely annoyed further by D-Day gate. For this type of voter, even if they voted Brexit, the Lib Dems may be much more attractive as the 'grown up' choice, compared with Reform. Couple this with the Lib Dems putting social care front and centre of their plans, and they may do great with a whole bunch of these older, disaffected former tories...

    I think Poll results like this can often beget further results like this, because results like this YouGov have cut through with the public where 'normal' polls do not. Not least because Sky, the Telegraph etc often feature them prominently.

    Suddenly a whole bunch of people think "You know what, I'm voting Lib Dem / Reform - the Tories have got no chance". The Tories - amazingly - have started running advertising campaigns literally playing on this - "Keir Starmer needs a strong opposition" type adverts.

    I really think a sea change is underpriced.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,272
    mwadams said:

    Ratters said:

    I think what is happening is:

    1) No one really wants the Tories to win. Probably even most of their own voters think they need some time out, but will vote for them out of loyalty/habit/dislike of Labour. And, importantly, no one thinks they will win.

    2) No one is enthused by Labour, which is not particularly surprising given they've run the most safe, boring campaign ever. Worth giving them a go over the Tories? Sure. Chanting Starmer's name at Glastonbury later this month? Not a chance.

    3) People are willing to vote for a third party (Lib Dems, Reform, Greens) given they are sure the Tories will lose and aren't enthused by Labour. What's the harm? Farage if your idea of fun is a cigarette and a pint down Spoons, Davey if you would rather be paddleboarding, Greens if you don't approve of fun. Something for everyone.

    Or it's just polling margin of error. Who knows.

    A period in politics without a Cult of Personality would be quite welcome
    How do we persuade the media of that?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,318
    The polls from Focaldata and Savanta point to a terrible Conservative defeat, but not a terminal event, as 1924 was for the Liberals.

    The French general election, OTOH, may be the most consequential in a major power in decades.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    Good. And your problem with this is?
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290

    Richard
    @richardgomer
    ·
    2h
    OK, if Ed becomes the leader of the opposition I will definitely go to Autumn conference.

    https://x.com/richardgomer/status/1800564364468269417
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800


    Richard
    @richardgomer
    ·
    2h
    OK, if Ed becomes the leader of the opposition I will definitely go to Autumn conference.

    https://x.com/richardgomer/status/1800564364468269417

    Am I supposed to know who this person is and why they are influential?
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    HYUFD said:

    The LDs clearly got a bounce from their manifesto, mainly at Labour's expense based on the Yougov poll.

    I suspect the Tories may get a few younger and middle aged voters back from Labour after their manifesto today. Not much in it not already mentioned but the NI cut and abolition for the self employed and stamp duty cut for first time buyers clearly targeted at that demographic

    The return of Farage being a nightmare for the Tories, as Prof Curtice long warned, is proving a real deal.

    Some voters don’t follow politics close enough, they will genuine believe their vote for Farage will make him LOTO.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.

    I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418
    Scotland leaders debate on NOW on BBC Scotland. Including Douglas Ross!
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,496

    @RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

    Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

    EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
    For info. I know Rochdale's seat. Believe me he has zero chance. The LibDems have collapsed in the parts of Aberdeenshire where they used to be competitive and this area wasnt one of those parts. The Ross shenanigans have, no doubt, put the seat in play but it remains a Tory/SNP marginal. The SNP have a big problem here because the economy is dependent on oil and gas and they want to close the sector down. Ultimately, I suspect, folk will vote with their pocket books. But it'll be close.
  • Options
    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 100
    edited June 11

    It’s the high Green figure from some pollsters that is the outlier share that puts Labour below the 42/43 they will at very least get. Lib Dem’s can actually get 15/16 - they had an alliance with the greens recently, many green votes will TV Lib Dem, Green and Lib Dem TV Labour. Some Labour TV Lib Dem, but not green on basis you TV to stop Tory winning and not many Green openings there. Labour could get Ref anti Tory TV too in places - it’s not simply ideological far right certain to back other right, it’s more subtle and based on anger against long time sitting government and how pathetic their leaders are.

    It is time to talk TV.

    I have just finished Cathedral by the Sea, and it cheered me up, after all this Conservative Party EVE day after day.

    The Tory manifesto is a horror show, both uninspiring and dodgy income streams, in large measure. Horrible.

    Yes I did wonder about that Greens on 8%. At a time when Greens generally seem to be suffering this seems like an outlier?

    The highest the Greens have ever achieved in a UK General Election was, I believe, 3.8% in 2015

    I wonder if this YouGov is the equivalent of that 1997 ICM
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    edited June 11

    Chameleon said:

    @RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

    I'm looking at LD/Lab/Con three-ways, places like Maidenhead where despite on paper it being close between the main parties I know that one of LD/Lab are not really trying. People bet on the polls, UNS definitely can't pick it up and even MRPs won't be great at picking it up, so there should be an edge. I'm hoping someone puts in the effort to do a spreadsheet like the Brexit one to judge whether parties are over/under performing their polling and a few demographic bits so there may be opportunities downstream at 3 or 4am when we get a good idea of how tactical voting is working.
    This would be a resource that us PBers could massively do with - I'd certainly get involved in helping make it.
    I'm working silly hours currently but have some time off 1st to 3rd so may look to put it together then. Anyone aware of a site grouping 2024 council results by constituency? I'm thinking that could be the best recent barometer of relative strength in areas that had elections then.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
    Any of 'that' type of story probably comes out this weekend to try and spike the manifestos and early postals.
    I think we are, as a society, beyond where what he suggests the story is being an influence however.
    It would look, and is, desperate
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
    It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.

    And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.

    Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    In Dublin Euro 2024, Green Ciaran Cuffe has been excluded, his 43,582 votes (first pref + transfers over 17 counts) are now being redistributed (source RTE)

    BARRY ANDREWS, FF + 1931 = 69110
    REGINA DOHERTY, FG + 2196 = 68725
    LYNN BOYLAN, SF + 11338 = 64586
    NIALL BOYLAN, II + 4558 = 49490
    AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN, LAB + 5001 = 46912

    SSI - note that 10.5% of Clare Daly's accumulated vote went for Ind right Boylan, versus 26% for SFer Boylan; further note that Labour got 11.5% of CD transfers compared to only 7.3% for the Green, one reason he got excluded in count 18.

    WIth five candidates still standing for four seats (think I got that right now) current count is for all the marbles.

    Andrews, Doherty an SFer Boylan clearly elected. Question is, who's on 4th?

    Wither the 43,582 transfers now at play? my guess is that Lab O' Riordain is about to get a healthy boost from Cuffe's accumulated transfers, and pool vault over Ind for Ire Boylan.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
    Also, if you have a genuine killer story that will stand up you run it before someone else does.
    No you send it just at the right time. 6 weeks out from the GE is too early. e.g. Hunter Laptop story was run 3 weeks before polling day.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    edited June 11

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
    Any of 'that' type of story probably comes out this weekend to try and spike the manifestos and early postals.
    I think we are, as a society, beyond where what he suggests the story is being an influence however.
    It would look, and is, desperate
    Haven’t seen any of this. 70s style implication someone is gay or has an illegitimate child? Yeah, no one cares unless someone was genuinely harmed in the latter case.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    If Canada is possible then BF's market of LibDems beating Tory vote share at 10/1 might be worth a little nibble.

    Partly for the hoots.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    biggles said:


    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
    Any of 'that' type of story probably comes out this weekend to try and spike the manifestos and early postals.
    I think we are, as a society, beyond where what he suggests the story is being an influence however.
    It would look, and is, desperate
    Haven’t seen any of this. 70s style implication someone is gay or has an illegitimate child? Yeah, no one cares unless someone was genuinely harmed in the latter case.
    Its just the usual nudge nudge shit. Im not going to justify it by expanding. If they cant win the argument then they must lose, dirty tricks arent on
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    kle4 said:

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
    Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    @RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

    Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

    EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
    For anyone interested in how that panned out:
    Round 1:
    CON(1) 1305 (elected)
    SNP 1144 (elected)
    Rochdale 260
    CON(2) 236
    GRN 125

    Round 2 - transfers from CON(1):
    Rochdale 299
    CON(2) 648
    GRN 136

    Round 3 - transfers from SNP:
    Rochdale 379
    CON(2) 676
    GRN 240 (eliminated)

    Round 4 - transfers from GRN:
    Rochdale 547 (eliminated)
    CON(2) 697

    Round 5 - transfers from Rochdale:
    CON(2) 895 (elected)
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    If they both played their roles well, a televised debate between Ed Davey and Nigel Farage could be mutually beneficial.
  • Options
    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290

    If Canada is possible then BF's market of LibDems beating Tory vote share at 10/1 might be worth a little nibble.

    Partly for the hoots.

    Is that how far it's dropped? I got on at 14/1 an hour ago - lovely stuff. I do agree that it's underpriced - even though I think the Tories probably end on mid 20s just by inertia if nothing else.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    If Biden is looking for someone to supply guns...
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290

    kle4 said:

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
    Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
    To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    Farooq said:

    @RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

    Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

    EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
    For anyone interested in how that panned out:
    Round 1:
    CON(1) 1305 (elected)
    SNP 1144 (elected)
    Rochdale 260
    CON(2) 236
    GRN 125

    Round 2 - transfers from CON(1):
    Rochdale 299
    CON(2) 648
    GRN 136

    Round 3 - transfers from SNP:
    Rochdale 379
    CON(2) 676
    GRN 240 (eliminated)

    Round 4 - transfers from GRN:
    Rochdale 547 (eliminated)
    CON(2) 697

    Round 5 - transfers from Rochdale:
    CON(2) 895 (elected)
    Lead on Macduff!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
    Also, if you have a genuine killer story that will stand up you run it before someone else does.
    No you send it just at the right time. 6 weeks out from the GE is too early. e.g. Hunter Laptop story was run 3 weeks before polling day.
    What could possibly be the 'killer' story?

    Starmer is a Russian agent or is a convicted kiddy fiddler now living under a new name is about all I can think of.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11

    kle4 said:

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
    Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
    To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
    What they are doing, campaign is very generous term, that implies there is some sort of organisation behind what they are doing. It feels more like they spin the wheel every night at 8pm and whatever it lands on they ring the Telegraph and tell them this is our policy for tomorrow.
  • Options
    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 276

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.

    I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.

    It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    The LDs clearly got a bounce from their manifesto, mainly at Labour's expense based on the Yougov poll.

    I suspect the Tories may get a few younger and middle aged voters back from Labour after their manifesto today. Not much in it not already mentioned but the NI cut and abolition for the self employed and stamp duty cut for first time buyers clearly targeted at that demographic

    HY - nobody believes a word you lot say. Cut taxes? You’ve raised them by £13k. Cut child poverty? It’s increased! You could promise free ice cream and people would doubt it.

    Sorry. It’s done.
    Don't forget HYUFD wanted to take another £3000 from us before the manifesto. Lord knows how much it would be now.

    All to give a tax cut to landlords apparently
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    Im expecting the press, if we get a decent closing of the gap poll or a better MRP for the blues, to pivot to the Comeback Kid narrative on the head of a pin
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863

    kle4 said:

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
    Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
    To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
    If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982

    In Dublin Euro 2024, Green Ciaran Cuffe has been excluded, his 43,582 votes (first pref + transfers over 17 counts) are now being redistributed (source RTE)

    BARRY ANDREWS, FF + 1931 = 69110
    REGINA DOHERTY, FG + 2196 = 68725
    LYNN BOYLAN, SF + 11338 = 64586
    NIALL BOYLAN, II + 4558 = 49490
    AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN, LAB + 5001 = 46912

    SSI - note that 10.5% of Clare Daly's accumulated vote went for Ind right Boylan, versus 26% for SFer Boylan; further note that Labour got 11.5% of CD transfers compared to only 7.3% for the Green, one reason he got excluded in count 18.

    WIth five candidates still standing for four seats (think I got that right now) current count is for all the marbles.

    Andrews, Doherty an SFer Boylan clearly elected. Question is, who's on 4th?

    Wither the 43,582 transfers now at play? my guess is that Lab O' Riordain is about to get a healthy boost from Cuffe's accumulated transfers, and pool vault over Ind for Ire Boylan.

    Is this the final count? FF are 5,500 short of quota, FG are 6,000 short of quota, it's probable that Green transfers will push one or both over the line. If then the number of FF and FG votes over the quota is more than the gap between II and LAB then there would have to be another count of the surpluses.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
    Also, if you have a genuine killer story that will stand up you run it before someone else does.
    No you send it just at the right time. 6 weeks out from the GE is too early. e.g. Hunter Laptop story was run 3 weeks before polling day.
    What could possibly be the 'killer' story?

    Starmer is a Russian agent or is a convicted kiddy fiddler now living under a new name is about all I can think of.
    He likes Garibaldi biscuits and the 'music' of Gilbert O'Sullivan
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418

    kle4 said:

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
    Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
    To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
    It's very much worse than Foot's.

    And LAB could, as now, rely on keeping a relatively high number of seats on a low share of vote due to the way their vote was concentrated. They got 209 seats on 28%.

    Even if CON get 28% this time, which they look a long way from, that would be nowhere near 200 seats maybe not 150.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
    Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
    To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
    If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
    He would have left without even the excuse of an interview...he might have even got dumped by his party at that stage.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.

    I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
    Apologies for my ignorance but what is an 'October Surprise'? What is the derivation?
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    As PBers await with partially-baited breath the thrilling conclusion of determinant Count 19 for Dublin Euro 2024, note that 35.3% of accumulated Clare Daly vote was untransferable.

    Not surprising given that there's a limit to how many candidates voter are willing or able to list in order of preference.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982

    kle4 said:

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
    Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
    Dan Hodges tweets a lot but in this case it's unfalsifiable, who's to say that November or January wouldn't have been worse?

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
    Also, if you have a genuine killer story that will stand up you run it before someone else does.
    No you send it just at the right time. 6 weeks out from the GE is too early. e.g. Hunter Laptop story was run 3 weeks before polling day.
    What could possibly be the 'killer' story?

    Starmer is a Russian agent or is a convicted kiddy fiddler now living under a new name is about all I can think of.
    He likes Garibaldi biscuits and the 'music' of Gilbert O'Sullivan
    That all for all the claims of being a socialist, he actually has a shrine to Margaret Thatcher in his garden shed....
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

    Not really.

    With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

    There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
    Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

    What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
    Labour's manifesto launch.
    The BBC head to head debate.

    Anything else?
    Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

    If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.

    I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
    Apologies for my ignorance but what is an 'October Surprise'? What is the derivation?
    US elections are held in early November, so a good time to release dirt on another candidate before polling day is at some point in October.
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