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Punters unmoved by YouGov showing Labour dropping into the 30s – politicalbetting.com
Punters unmoved by YouGov showing Labour dropping into the 30s – politicalbetting.com
Tories could soon be fourth. https://t.co/zBJY40N6yi
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As for the hung Parliament it is very possible to win a big majority with only 35% of the vote if the remaining votes are scattered all over the shop. The fact the Cons are on 18% is the defining factor there. They need 30% at least to have a chance of derailing Lab's victory parade
It's likely an outlier on that measure but where it leaves Conservative and Reform I don't know. Three weeks on Thursday.
Seriously though NOM is now worth a punt, as Laura K keeps reminding us, there's a long way to go.
I think Farage's impact is ensuring the upper end of Reform scores rather than the lower end as might have been the case with a competent Tory campaign.
I do like 18%.
Could this be the first GE with four parties over 10%? Not sure that's happened before.
Meanwhile time ticks relentlessly on. If a team leads in a football match, the odds on them winning will relentlessly shorten as the clock ticks towards full time, and the odds on defeat or a draw will relentlessly lengthen.
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph SAVANTA
📈19pt Labour lead
🌹Lab 44 (-2)
🌳Con 25 (-1)
➡️Reform 10 (-1)
🔶LD 9 (-1)
🌍Green 4 (+1)
🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
⬜️Other 4 (+1)
2,219 UK adults, 7-9 June
(chg from 5-7 June)
Then a hang glider from one of those giant step ladders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dj9ev40C30M
While I don't think @RochdalePioneers will win, he has a lot more chance than he did last week before Douglas decided to kick an ill person while he was down..
Think that SF are now effectively elected and it's the Green votes putting FF and FG over quota that will decide between Niall Boylan and Labour. The surplus reallocation will be from the last batch of transfers isn't it?
I get the feeling that the LibDem social care and single market policies might be catching the imagination of some, plus Ed Davey larking about in a gorilla suit. They may be starting to look like a more friendly and directly honest party to many audiences.
LibDem Screamed At For Dropping Off Election "Junk Mail"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZcQt-p0BoY
And then they ousted David Duguid with both the Tory MSPs and Banff & Buchan Conservatives launching Operation Samson on the usurper Douglas 4 Jobs Ross. He had to announce he would quit Holyrood and then quit the leadership. And I doubt we’re done - awkward interview with Sky refusing to say if he’ll quit as an authorised Tory candidate if they do him for expenses.
On the doors? Tory last time voters utterly disgusted - by both national and local events. D-Day raised over and over. And SNP last time voters citing broken promises and crap public services.
And we’re getting the same in the neighbouring constituencies - an absolute sultry rebellious mood of people wanting to protest vote against the government(s).
What will happen? God knows. Labour are paper only and supportive of me (I know, he told me). Reform nobody have heard from. And Ross - assuming he is still the Tory candidate - is so far refusing to do the hustings next Thursday…
Instead of whose made-up tax numbers are the bigger lie.
AUseless Team. They certainly have plenty of Howling Mad Murdock policies.I suspect the Tories may get a few younger and middle aged voters back from Labour after their manifesto today. Not much in it not already mentioned but the NI cut and abolition for the self employed and stamp duty cut for first time buyers clearly targeted at that demographic
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
The US lifts ban on giving arms to the Azov Brigade.
1) No one really wants the Tories to win. Probably even most of their own voters think they need some time out, but will vote for them out of loyalty/habit/dislike of Labour. And, importantly, no one thinks they will win.
2) No one is enthused by Labour, which is not particularly surprising given they've run the most safe, boring campaign ever. Worth giving them a go over the Tories? Sure. Chanting Starmer's name at Glastonbury later this month? Not a chance.
3) People are willing to vote for a third party (Lib Dems, Reform, Greens) given they are sure the Tories will lose and aren't enthused by Labour. What's the harm? Farage if your idea of fun is a cigarette and a pint down Spoons, Davey if you would rather be paddleboarding, Greens if you don't approve of fun. Something for everyone.
Or it's just polling margin of error. Who knows.
Sorry. It’s done.
It is time to talk TV.
I have just finished Cathedral by the Sea, and it cheered me up, after all this Conservative Party EVE day after day.
The Tory manifesto is a horror show, both uninspiring and dodgy income streams, in large measure. Horrible.
I suspect that’s a force that will weaken come polling day, when the choice becomes real and personal, but it could be a bumpy ride.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
I think Poll results like this can often beget further results like this, because results like this YouGov have cut through with the public where 'normal' polls do not. Not least because Sky, the Telegraph etc often feature them prominently.
Suddenly a whole bunch of people think "You know what, I'm voting Lib Dem / Reform - the Tories have got no chance". The Tories - amazingly - have started running advertising campaigns literally playing on this - "Keir Starmer needs a strong opposition" type adverts.
I really think a sea change is underpriced.
The French general election, OTOH, may be the most consequential in a major power in decades.
Richard
@richardgomer
·
2h
OK, if Ed becomes the leader of the opposition I will definitely go to Autumn conference.
https://x.com/richardgomer/status/1800564364468269417
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
Labour's manifesto launch.
The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Some voters don’t follow politics close enough, they will genuine believe their vote for Farage will make him LOTO.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
The highest the Greens have ever achieved in a UK General Election was, I believe, 3.8% in 2015
I wonder if this YouGov is the equivalent of that 1997 ICM
I think we are, as a society, beyond where what he suggests the story is being an influence however.
It would look, and is, desperate
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
BARRY ANDREWS, FF + 1931 = 69110
REGINA DOHERTY, FG + 2196 = 68725
LYNN BOYLAN, SF + 11338 = 64586
NIALL BOYLAN, II + 4558 = 49490
AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN, LAB + 5001 = 46912
SSI - note that 10.5% of Clare Daly's accumulated vote went for Ind right Boylan, versus 26% for SFer Boylan; further note that Labour got 11.5% of CD transfers compared to only 7.3% for the Green, one reason he got excluded in count 18.
WIth five candidates still standing for four seats (think I got that right now) current count is for all the marbles.
Andrews, Doherty an SFer Boylan clearly elected. Question is, who's on 4th?
Wither the 43,582 transfers now at play? my guess is that Lab O' Riordain is about to get a healthy boost from Cuffe's accumulated transfers, and pool vault over Ind for Ire Boylan.
Partly for the hoots.
Round 1:
CON(1) 1305 (elected)
SNP 1144 (elected)
Rochdale 260
CON(2) 236
GRN 125
Round 2 - transfers from CON(1):
Rochdale 299
CON(2) 648
GRN 136
Round 3 - transfers from SNP:
Rochdale 379
CON(2) 676
GRN 240 (eliminated)
Round 4 - transfers from GRN:
Rochdale 547 (eliminated)
CON(2) 697
Round 5 - transfers from Rochdale:
CON(2) 895 (elected)
Starmer is a Russian agent or is a convicted kiddy fiddler now living under a new name is about all I can think of.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
All to give a tax cut to landlords apparently
And LAB could, as now, rely on keeping a relatively high number of seats on a low share of vote due to the way their vote was concentrated. They got 209 seats on 28%.
Even if CON get 28% this time, which they look a long way from, that would be nowhere near 200 seats maybe not 150.
Not surprising given that there's a limit to how many candidates voter are willing or able to list in order of preference.