Evidence beginning to tentatively build that the Labour vote is falling. As was widely anticipated. But, that the Tory share is also on the slide. Not expected.
-4 is a big drop
As I said earlier there will be nerves in the Labour camp. Not panic, but definitely nerves
We need the Tories to move en masse to Reform to make this REALLY exciting
Evidence beginning to tentatively build that the Labour vote is falling. As was widely anticipated. But, that the Tory share is also on the slide. Not expected.
-4 is a big drop
As I said earlier there will be nerves in the Labour camp. Not panic, but definitely nerves
We need the Tories to move en masse to Reform to make this REALLY exciting
The previous score of 47% was unusually high though. So may be partly reversion to the mean.
Evidence beginning to tentatively build that the Labour vote is falling. As was widely anticipated. But, that the Tory share is also on the slide. Not expected.
The question is whether the Labour vote is mostly falling in their safe seats, or is it dropping everywhere?
Or is it even falling? If it's the breaking of the large amount of Tory 2019 don't knows into a decision (not likely to be Labour, otherwise why haven't they gone before?), then it doesn't even need to be a Labour fall to produce those changes. It isn't good news for the Tories. They are getting closer and closer to that cliff edge. And they are absolutely sworn certain that FPTP is the one, true, holy and apostolic reflection of the Will of the People.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.
Original? So who is the sporadic contributor now, a young pretender?
Can’t be any older than the perennial Basil Brush. He’s playing Glasto again in a couple of weeks.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Until quite recently, we paid £2.50 a week Class 2 as well. You didn't need to earn enough to pay Class 4 to get the stamp.
Registering as self employed and paying class 2 was a lot cheaper than buying stamps. I wonder if any non-workers pulled that trick?
Does anyone under 40 know what a cheque is? Let alone a blank one.
Our local cattery still only deals in cash or cheques. It’s the only time I write a cheque, as I only carry small amounts of cash, in case of emergency (such as my phone breaking), except of the annual fee to Opportunities in Retirement, who run computer courses, so should know better.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is from 13 year ago. Also if you look it is heavily skewed by people reporting basically zero income, they aren't really self employed. The latest figures will also be heavily skewed by gig economy workers.
As I say, it isn't also about a single year, I said they won't stay self employed for long on those income levels. I am talking about those that make self employed as a career.
I'm watching the Scottish Leaders debate on catchup. Wowsers. John Swinney is an unhappy chappy. Keeps being called out for all of the austerity and cuts his government have imposed. And the defence? "Westminster". He's a bit prickly!
He was awful! I hate to say it, but Lorna Slater was best, followed by Alex Cole-Hamilton. The audience had been chosen at random from the Glasgow Labour Party social club - after happy hour!
Is Labour suffering from exactly the kind of "they'll win anyway " effect that they worried about ?
We've had a couple of weeks of campaign with seeing huge leads for Labour now, with people also seeing the campaign not apparently making much difference to that either way. If that trend merges with anti-establishment feeling, Reform and LD could be the big other winners in a Starmer parliament.
It’s a fair criticism except that NI isn’t tethered to the state pension - it’s just another tax. Arguably you could link the state pension to lifetime income tax or business tax payments. Or just forget the contribution part and pay everyone over 67 or whatever age you choose, irrespective of contribution. Or you turn NI into a proper ring fenced, contribution based pension.
Kurt von Schleicher's ghost has just entered the conversation...
That FT piece claims there are rumours Macron will resign if he loses this gamble
I find that hard to believe. He clearly LOVES being POTFR
On the other hand, if he does lose this, then his entire domestic agenda is stalled and he’s a lame duck waiting to be turned into confit by MLP in 2027
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
Cheques are weird old-fashioned shite, but the advent of point-and-shoot banking apps means they are an okay way of transferring money for people who refuse to use an app.
Better than cash as you can pop them straight into your bank account, instead of lugging them around with you and breeding the mofos into tiny shards of pointless metal.
It’s a fair criticism except that NI isn’t tethered to the state pension - it’s just another tax. Arguably you could link the state pension to lifetime income tax or business tax payments. Or just forget the contribution part and pay everyone over 67 or whatever age you choose, irrespective of contribution. Or you turn NI into a proper ring fenced, contribution based pension.
Is why a long time along it should have been combined.
Kurt von Schleicher's ghost has just entered the conversation...
That FT piece claims there are rumours Macron will resign if he loses this gamble
I find that hard to believe. He clearly LOVES being POTFR
On the other hand, if he does lose this, then his entire domestic agenda is stalled and he’s a lame duck waiting to be turned into confit by MLP in 2027
Maybe he WILL resign
I guess it depends how bad. If its a close win for MLP party, he can say watch the racist f##k it up. If his gamble blows up in his face and it goes really badly south, the political pressure will be enormous.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
British weather is now unacceptable
You can seriously have a blast wandering the world. I am. Take Ukraine. Ok there’s a war on but if you’re careful it’s not THAT dangerous - it is also a lot more interesting than sitting at home in a bed sit in Balham. Or Bootle
Everything is insanely cheap. I just had a really good Italian meal - two large aperol spritz, inventive bruschetta, seafood fettuccine, glass of good white, at a restaurant in the most fashionable bit of Odessa - beautiful Odessa - £15
If you want good borscht and beer you can eat really well for £5. A bus from Kyiv to Odessa - £13
And thanks to our digital world you can stay in touch with everyone. I had a long WhatsApp chat with my brother in Peru then a group chat with friends and now I’m hanging out on PB
You no longer need to be anywhere in particular. If you can work from home you can work on the road where food is cheap, the sun shines, you see endlessly interesting things, and tax is zero
We could have had that if we hadn’t had 14 years of a grifter friendly Tory government.
I yield to no one in my contempt for these wet lefty Tories but how are they responsible for a globalised, digitised world allowing freelancers to work anywhere, and how are they responsible fir giving london the climate of Anchorage?
I have to take issue with your comments! Having been to Anchorage, it’s climate is much better than London’s.
I'm watching the Scottish Leaders debate on catchup. Wowsers. John Swinney is an unhappy chappy. Keeps being called out for all of the austerity and cuts his government have imposed. And the defence? "Westminster". He's a bit prickly!
He was awful! I hate to say it, but Lorna Slater was best, followed by Alex Cole-Hamilton. The audience had been chosen at random from the Glasgow Labour Party social club - after happy hour!
This was the big moment with the biggest applause. And reflects what we are hearing on the doors across Aberdeenshire:
Kurt von Schleicher's ghost has just entered the conversation...
That FT piece claims there are rumours Macron will resign if he loses this gamble
I find that hard to believe. He clearly LOVES being POTFR
On the other hand, if he does lose this, then his entire domestic agenda is stalled and he’s a lame duck waiting to be turned into confit by MLP in 2027
Maybe he WILL resign
PDLR trips off the tongue better than POTFR I think.
The Express front page - 100,000 migrants to be deported that according to the Express is a Rishi Promise that “has fired up the General Election” - is that actually in the manifesto? What price tag is next to it?
makes a change from pricing up cost of a free owls I suppose.
All this fannying around is a really good argument for why tax, benefits and wages ought to be radically simplified in a way your average punter can understand. A government with a 200 majority which did that would get my vote, even if the benefits to me personally weren't what I liked. See also we are moving towards UBI for the over 67's. Except we aren't cos it's a Tory proposal. But Opposition (and let's face it, that's what they are now, and have been for some time), proposals are frequently nicked.
The Express front page - 100,000 migrants deported (makes a change from promising a free owl) that according to the Express is a Rishi Promise that “has fired up the General Election” - is that actually in the manifesto? What price tag is next to it?
No-one believes this would happen, even if they support it.
Just shows how out of touch you are: 95% of self-employed were earning
No, look at the spreadsheet - it's 2020-2021. Gig economy workers would get the NI reduction and hence free State Pension credits too.
Clearly the Tories haven't thought this through.
Your link points to 2010-2011. But I looked at the more recent one.
As I said in other posts, its a stupid policy. My criticism was KGM making out its free pension for all self employed, a) NI isn't ring fenced, you pay IC, and b) earn £50k and you pay other NI and those that do it for a career will likely be doing so.
Those figures are heavily skewed by people playing at a business for a year or two. You can't run a business and earn £10k a year, even £20k, because they can get minimum wage job that pays more than that.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
Kurt von Schleicher's ghost has just entered the conversation...
That FT piece claims there are rumours Macron will resign if he loses this gamble
I find that hard to believe. He clearly LOVES being POTFR
On the other hand, if he does lose this, then his entire domestic agenda is stalled and he’s a lame duck waiting to be turned into confit by MLP in 2027
Maybe he WILL resign
PDLR trips off the tongue better than POTFR I think.
Non, it doesn’t. This is like when you futilely tried to claim that “numinous” was better than my new coinage “noom” - a word which has since swept the planet
PDLR sounds like an obscure EU directive or maybe a communist groupuscule in Asia. POTFR sounds like a Frenchman vaguely spitting in anger “pottifffrrr!” And also is in English rather than that idiot dialect, French
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension out of this policy.
Lets just say for arguments sake, this policy is reality, you give the company thing a go and make £5k for a couple of years. You will jack it in. And its not hugely different to how students get some free credited years, we don't say all students are getting a free pension because of that.
The exception is gig workers, who really do work for £15k a year.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Kurt von Schleicher's ghost has just entered the conversation...
That FT piece claims there are rumours Macron will resign if he loses this gamble
I find that hard to believe. He clearly LOVES being POTFR
On the other hand, if he does lose this, then his entire domestic agenda is stalled and he’s a lame duck waiting to be turned into confit by MLP in 2027
Maybe he WILL resign
I guess it depends how bad. If its a close win for MLP party, he can say watch the racist f##k it up. If his gamble blows up in his face and it goes really badly south, the political pressure will be enormous.
Project Fear worked for David Cameron until one day it didn't. Macron might have made the same mistake.
Kurt von Schleicher's ghost has just entered the conversation...
That FT piece claims there are rumours Macron will resign if he loses this gamble
I find that hard to believe. He clearly LOVES being POTFR
On the other hand, if he does lose this, then his entire domestic agenda is stalled and he’s a lame duck waiting to be turned into confit by MLP in 2027
Maybe he WILL resign
PDLR trips off the tongue better than POTFR I think.
Non, it doesn’t. This is like when you futilely tried to claim that “numinous” was better than my new coinage “noom” - a word which has since swept the planet
PDLR sounds like an obscure EU directive or maybe a communist groupuscule in Asia. POTFR sounds like a Frenchman vaguely spitting in anger “pottifffrrr!” And also is in English rather than that idiot dialect, French
You could infer the vowels in PDLR and pronounce it like piddler.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Evidence beginning to tentatively build that the Labour vote is falling. As was widely anticipated. But, that the Tory share is also on the slide. Not expected.
-4 is a big drop
As I said earlier there will be nerves in the Labour camp. Not panic, but definitely nerves
We need the Tories to move en masse to Reform to make this REALLY exciting
It's not necessarily a drop in the actual number of Labour voters though. You're assuming static turnout, with any change entirely due to people changing their minds.
In fact, the -4 for Labour can be entirely explained by a 50% increase in the absolute number of people saying they will vote Reform, and a 30% increase in the number of people for LD and Green, even while the number of people saying they will vote Tory and Labour remains exactly the same.
That is why this could be so deadly for the Conservatives. An increase in turnout for Reform and LD voters will cause much more problems for the Tories than the same for the Greens for Labour.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Fair enough.
It is crazy Tory policy though. Not only practically, but politically.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
So thats the end of the Debate Night Scottish leaders debate. That was pretty brutal on the SNP in particular.
The consensus from most of the questions asked and the responses from the audience is that the country is broken. So the polling showing the SNP getting smashed is likely correct. But outside the central belt supposedly its a two horse race between Tory/SNP who offer the same recipe...
The Tory manifesto feels rather like one of those budgets that looks okay at first sight but then unravels over the next few days. I just can't see how the sums add up at all. It may be a bit of a gift to Labour.
The Tory manifesto feels rather like one of those budgets that looks okay at first sight but then unravels over the next few days. I just can't see how the sums add up at all. It may be a bit of a gift to Labour.
I am not sure it even looks ok at first sight. At best it is forgettable, but in reality it obviously isn't honest about the scale of the shit show we are in or how we get out of it. And it doesn't even have anything that really excites Tory leaning voters e.g. IHT threshold raise.
Its like a Gareth Southgate England team with 5 at the back and no Kane, Bellingham or Saka. Nobody is getting excited about that watching that or would think they could win the Euros.
All over but the shouting in Dublin Euro constituency, with 4 elected, all on final Count 17:
FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 LAB 1
SSI - as I predicted (very late) transfers from GRN were like rocket fuel for LAB, who got +16,614 from them compared to just +926 for the right-wing anti-immigration-shock-jock Independent for Ireland guy who came in 5th place for the booby prize (aka wooden spoon).
In Irish local elections, 3 seats out of 949 still undecided.
The Tory manifesto feels rather like one of those budgets that looks okay at first sight but then unravels over the next few days. I just can't see how the sums add up at all. It may be a bit of a gift to Labour.
I am not sure it even looks ok at first sight. At best it is forgettable, but in reality it obviously isn't honest about the scale of the shit show we are in or how we get out of it. And it doesn't even have anything that really excites Tory leaning voters e.g. IHT threshold raise.
Its like a Gareth Southgate England team with 5 at the back and no Kane, Bellingham or Saka. Nobody is getting excited about that.
Rishi is suffering from a version of the "middle of the road gets you run over" problem.
He can't bring himself to actually be the "sensible, good governance, do the right thing even if it's unpopular" person. Think Ken Clarke in the runup to 1997. Equally, he doesn't have the nerve to be full-on right wing batso. Think (if you dare) of Truss. Or Braverman.
Unfortuantely for Rishi, he has ended up annoying both sides.
The Tory manifesto feels rather like one of those budgets that looks okay at first sight but then unravels over the next few days. I just can't see how the sums add up at all. It may be a bit of a gift to Labour.
I am not sure it even looks ok at first sight. At best it is forgettable, but in reality it obviously isn't honest about the scale of the shit show we are in or how we get out of it. And it doesn't even have anything that really excites Tory leaning voters e.g. IHT threshold raise.
Its like a Gareth Southgate England team with 5 at the back and no Kane, Bellingham or Saka. Nobody is getting excited about that.
Rishi is suffering from a version of the "middle of the road gets you run over" problem.
He can't bring himself to actually be the "sensible, good governance, do the right thing even if it's unpopular" person. Think Ken Clarke in the runup to 1997. Equally, he doesn't have the nerve to be full-on right wing batso. Think (if you dare) of Truss. Or Braverman.
Unfortuantely for Rishi, he has ended up annoying both sides.
He also trashed the middle of the road stuff with the nonsense they led with like National Service.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Fair enough.
It is crazy Tory policy though. Not only practically, but politically.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
A of people in salaried jobs think self-employed people are engaged in rampant tax evasion anyway. It just makes the Conservatives look like an accessory to the crime.
(I don't think that is true personally, but if you consider things like music tuition, cash only trades... you can see why the perception exists)
Kurt von Schleicher's ghost has just entered the conversation...
That FT piece claims there are rumours Macron will resign if he loses this gamble
I find that hard to believe. He clearly LOVES being POTFR
On the other hand, if he does lose this, then his entire domestic agenda is stalled and he’s a lame duck waiting to be turned into confit by MLP in 2027
Maybe he WILL resign
On the other hand it could show he’s up for the fight. As the right go into the next presidential election without clean hands from 3 years of struggling to deliver on promise, it could allow a moderate to win in a tight presidential race, so is worth the hit now. It’s not even much of a gamble for Macron and his movement, defeat here merely guarantees the right don’t go into the presidential year as fresh, opposition change candidates.
For evidence, how long has Meloni been in? The Sheen is already beginning to wear off, especially in eyes of the working class.
Winning Snappy Lec in France could set up a long few years for Le Pen and her party.
To look forward how it could develop, we need to look back a few years. The Yellow vests standing side by side on the barricades were of both the Pop left and the Pop right. The Populism of both Melenchon and Le Pen share much the same thinking - draw bridge up approach, history of euro scepticism, links to Putin similar to some of the Italian Populists (interesting Meloni differs from the hard and populist right in Italy by being anti Putin). And because of this, sometimes the same voters. But the Right winning Snappy Lec, the Left out of power, could change that swappable dynamic by the time of the next elections.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Fair enough.
It is crazy Tory policy though. Not only practically, but politically.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
A of people in salaried jobs think self-employed people are engaged in rampant tax evasion anyway. It just makes the Conservatives look like an accessory to the crime.
(I don't think that is true personally, but if you consider things like music tuition, cash only trades... you can see why the perception exists)
Outside of the money laundering barbers / car washes, is there really much cash in hand work these days? Take aways I guess.
But none of the traditional trades wants to have to have cash over very small amounts, its too risky and too much of a pain in the ass in order to dodge a bit of tax here and there e.g. no legit second hand car sales will take cash as they don't want £5k in £20 notes in the way Arthur Daley or Delboy types used to walk around with the massive wads of cash.
The Tory manifesto feels rather like one of those budgets that looks okay at first sight but then unravels over the next few days. I just can't see how the sums add up at all. It may be a bit of a gift to Labour.
I am not sure it even looks ok at first sight. At best it is forgettable, but in reality it obviously isn't honest about the scale of the shit show we are in or how we get out of it. And it doesn't even have anything that really excites Tory leaning voters e.g. IHT threshold raise.
Its like a Gareth Southgate England team with 5 at the back and no Kane, Bellingham or Saka. Nobody is getting excited about that.
Rishi is suffering from a version of the "middle of the road gets you run over" problem.
He can't bring himself to actually be the "sensible, good governance, do the right thing even if it's unpopular" person. Think Ken Clarke in the runup to 1997. Equally, he doesn't have the nerve to be full-on right wing batso. Think (if you dare) of Truss. Or Braverman.
Unfortuantely for Rishi, he has ended up annoying both sides.
Even the LTN, ULEZ, 20mph stuff is pathetic - ask the Welsh for permission to overrule them.
Pisses off sane middle of the road Conservatives (think road safety types on the Parish Council), doesn't really persuade the gammonry that he actually cares about motorists at all.
If the first round of the French election does suggest a political earthquake is on the way, how much impact will it have here? I'm thinking of potential last-minutes deals between the Tories and Reform.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Fair enough.
It is crazy Tory policy though. Not only practically, but politically.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
A of people in salaried jobs think self-employed people are engaged in rampant tax evasion anyway. It just makes the Conservatives look like an accessory to the crime.
(I don't think that is true personally, but if you consider things like music tuition, cash only trades... you can see why the perception exists)
Outside of the money laundering barbers / car washes, is there really much cash in hand work these days? Nobody wants to have to have cash over very small amounts, its too risky and too much of a pain in the ass in order to dodge a bit of tax here and there e.g. no second hand car sales will take cash.
Again, we are running into the same old PB problem.
I entirely agree with you. I'm not sure the voting public does.
Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
When do we get to see this interview?
I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say
I wonder what Sunak will say? Perhaps "I have a plan, my plan is working, Starmer has no plan, except increasing taxes for every working person by £2017 every day".
I would be interested in the results of a poll that asked whether voters would be willing to pay an additional £2,017 in tax, in return for better services.
Given the current cost of living squeese I am not sure you would like the answer.
If the first round of the French election does suggest a political earthquake is on the way, how much impact will it have here? I'm thinking of potential last-minutes deals between the Tories and Reform.
First, the second round is after the UK general election and only then will the picture be clear.
Second Farage wants to replace the Tories largely as Le Pen has replaced Les Republicains as the main party of the right, not do deals with them (although Le Pen and her party can't get a majority in France without the majority of votes of first round Les Republicains voters against Macron and his party or Melenchon and his block in the second round)
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Fair enough.
It is crazy Tory policy though. Not only practically, but politically.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
A of people in salaried jobs think self-employed people are engaged in rampant tax evasion anyway. It just makes the Conservatives look like an accessory to the crime.
(I don't think that is true personally, but if you consider things like music tuition, cash only trades... you can see why the perception exists)
Outside of the money laundering barbers / car washes, is there really much cash in hand work these days? Take aways I guess.
But none of the traditional trades wants to have to have cash over very small amounts, its too risky and too much of a pain in the ass in order to dodge a bit of tax here and there e.g. no legit second hand car sales will take cash as they don't want £5k in £20 notes in the way Arthur Daley or Delboy types used to walk around with the massive wads of cash.
A lot of cash in hand work based on the tradesmen I use.
If the first round of the French election does suggest a political earthquake is on the way, how much impact will it have here? I'm thinking of potential last-minutes deals between the Tories and Reform.
First, the second round is after the UK general election and only then will the picture be clear.
Second Farage wants to replace the Tories largely as Le Pen has replaced Les Republicains as the main party of the right, not do deals with them (although Le Pen and her party can't get a majority in France without the majority of votes of first round Les Republicains voters against Macron and his party or Melenchon and his block in the second round)
The first round will be on June 30th. If Le Pen comes first in as many constituencies as she did in the European elections, it will influence the mood and panic the Tories.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Fair enough.
It is crazy Tory policy though. Not only practically, but politically.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
A of people in salaried jobs think self-employed people are engaged in rampant tax evasion anyway. It just makes the Conservatives look like an accessory to the crime.
(I don't think that is true personally, but if you consider things like music tuition, cash only trades... you can see why the perception exists)
Outside of the money laundering barbers / car washes, is there really much cash in hand work these days? Nobody wants to have to have cash over very small amounts, its too risky and too much of a pain in the ass in order to dodge a bit of tax here and there e.g. no second hand car sales will take cash.
Again, we are running into the same old PB problem.
I entirely agree with you. I'm not sure the voting public does.
You might be right, but not sure about the cash aspect. I definitely think there is more an uninformed feeling that they get much massive wiggle room to be tax efficient if you are self employed e.g. the idea that they are all writing off all sorts of purchases, that can be used personally, against their tax bill and somehow that is free.
The Express front page - 100,000 migrants deported (makes a change from promising a free owl) that according to the Express is a Rishi Promise that “has fired up the General Election” - is that actually in the manifesto? What price tag is next to it?
No-one believes this would happen, even if they support it.
All pledges should be priced up though, just to be fair. What is the Price Tag for deporting 100,000 migrants to numerous countries under numerous deals?
The point being saying “I look the sound of that” but on learning the price, not liking it so much.
If the first round of the French election does suggest a political earthquake is on the way, how much impact will it have here? I'm thinking of potential last-minutes deals between the Tories and Reform.
First, the second round is after the UK general election and only then will the picture be clear.
Second Farage wants to replace the Tories largely as Le Pen has replaced Les Republicains as the main party of the right, not do deals with them (although Le Pen and her party can't get a majority in France without the majority of votes of first round Les Republicains voters against Macron and his party or Melenchon and his block in the second round)
The first round will be on June 30th. If Le Pen comes first in as many constituencies as she did in the European elections, it will influence the mood and panic the Tories.
Not really, for starters her party has been ahead of the Tories' French sister party, Les Republicains, for 2 national election cycles already now.
It might even see some Labour and LD tactical votes for the Tories and Giles Watling in Clacton to beat Farage too
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Fair enough.
It is crazy Tory policy though. Not only practically, but politically.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
A of people in salaried jobs think self-employed people are engaged in rampant tax evasion anyway. It just makes the Conservatives look like an accessory to the crime.
(I don't think that is true personally, but if you consider things like music tuition, cash only trades... you can see why the perception exists)
Outside of the money laundering barbers / car washes, is there really much cash in hand work these days? Take aways I guess.
But none of the traditional trades wants to have to have cash over very small amounts, its too risky and too much of a pain in the ass in order to dodge a bit of tax here and there e.g. no legit second hand car sales will take cash as they don't want £5k in £20 notes in the way Arthur Daley or Delboy types used to walk around with the massive wads of cash.
A lot of cash in hand work based on the tradesmen I use.
NI is a different world ;-)
I might be totally wrong on this. I don't think I have been offered "cash" price for years and I have a friend who owns a second hand car lot and he says absolutely no best price for cash anymore and doesn't know anybody who wants to be anywhere near the stuff. It is just too much hassle these days. What do you do with £1000s in £20s like some drug dealer, you can't bank the stuff and you are just asking to get robbed.
Cash businesses these days seem more about money laundering the proceeds of crime than defrauding the tax man of some VAT.
If the first round of the French election does suggest a political earthquake is on the way, how much impact will it have here? I'm thinking of potential last-minutes deals between the Tories and Reform.
First, the second round is after the UK general election and only then will the picture be clear.
Second Farage wants to replace the Tories largely as Le Pen has replaced Les Republicains as the main party of the right, not do deals with them (although Le Pen and her party can't get a majority in France without the majority of votes of first round Les Republicains voters against Macron and his party or Melenchon and his block in the second round)
Agree. There is also no deal that really is workable either. If he stands down Reform candidates to enable Tory gains, it probably just delivers a Labour majority with 0 Reform representation in Parliament.
If the Tories stood down candidates in seats where Reform is likely to win, that would be them basically admitting defeat, even if it could achieve a combined REFUK/CON party as the opposition. At that point you might as well make Farage the nominal leader of the Tory Party - and many Tories would refuse a deal like that. Also a sizeable chunk of the remaining Tory voters would flock to Labour / Lib Dems. Also, unlike in 2019 - many Reform voters would actually prefer a Labour government to a Tory one - and so I don't know if this even entices them.
I love the fact that the first round of the French election will be just a few days before ours, and the second round just a few days after. Fantastic for election nerds.
I find it hard to think that Labour will not be on anything other than 40%+
1997 exit poll had Labour on 47%. They got 44%. It didn't affect the size of their majority but turnout was down by an unexpected amount in safe Labour seats.
If the first round of the French election does suggest a political earthquake is on the way, how much impact will it have here? I'm thinking of potential last-minutes deals between the Tories and Reform.
First, the second round is after the UK general election and only then will the picture be clear.
Second Farage wants to replace the Tories largely as Le Pen has replaced Les Republicains as the main party of the right, not do deals with them (although Le Pen and her party can't get a majority in France without the majority of votes of first round Les Republicains voters against Macron and his party or Melenchon and his block in the second round)
Agree. There is also no deal that really is workable either. If he stands down Reform candidates to enable Tory gains, it probably just delivers a Labour majority with 0 Reform representation in Parliament.
If the Tories stood down candidates in seats where Reform is likely to win, that would be them basically admitting defeat, even if it could achieve a combined REFUK/CON party as the opposition. At that point you might as well make Farage the nominal leader of the Tory Party - and many Tories would refuse a deal like that. Also a sizeable chunk of the remaining Tory voters would flock to Labour / Lib Dems. Also, unlike in 2019 - many Reform voters would actually prefer a Labour government to a Tory one - and so I don't know if this even entices them.
I see the hard right leader of Les Republicains has now proposed a deal with Le Pen which she called 'a brave choice' to stand joint candidates with RN or not stand candidates against each other. The moderate old guard establishment of Les Republicains is furious at him for even considering it however, a number of senior former Les Republicain members of the Sarkozy appointed government are now even in Macron's Prime Minister's cabinet eg Rachida Dati who called it '“a terrible blow to my political family, the republican right”. https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/11/french-far-right-national-rally-les-republicains-election-pact-talks
Cheques are weird old-fashioned shite, but the advent of point-and-shoot banking apps means they are an okay way of transferring money for people who refuse to use an app.
Better than cash as you can pop them straight into your bank account, instead of lugging them around with you and breeding the mofos into tiny shards of pointless metal.
I love the fact that the first round of the French election will be just a few days before ours, and the second round just a few days after. Fantastic for election nerds.
New French legislative elections polling has Le Pen's party first, Melenchon's leftist block second, Macron's liberal centrist block only third and Les Republicains and their centre right allies 4th.
All over but the shouting in Dublin Euro constituency, with 4 elected, all on final Count 17:
FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 LAB 1
SSI - as I predicted (very late) transfers from GRN were like rocket fuel for LAB, who got +16,614 from them compared to just +926 for the right-wing anti-immigration-shock-jock Independent for Ireland guy who came in 5th place for the booby prize (aka wooden spoon).
In Irish local elections, 3 seats out of 949 still undecided.
Great shtuff. I'm delighted that Clare Daly got jettisoned.
MEP gains in Dublin constituency for both Labour and Sinn Fein.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.
Is today's Jack W not the same as the one of a few years ago?
"Hong Kong is ‘slowly becoming a totalitarian state’, says UK judge Lord Sumption, who last week quit territory’s top court, speaks out on ‘paranoid atmosphere’ under Chinese rule"
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.
Is today's Jack W not the same as the one of a few years ago?
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Fair enough.
It is crazy Tory policy though. Not only practically, but politically.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
A of people in salaried jobs think self-employed people are engaged in rampant tax evasion anyway. It just makes the Conservatives look like an accessory to the crime.
(I don't think that is true personally, but if you consider things like music tuition, cash only trades... you can see why the perception exists)
Outside of the money laundering barbers / car washes, is there really much cash in hand work these days? Nobody wants to have to have cash over very small amounts, its too risky and too much of a pain in the ass in order to dodge a bit of tax here and there e.g. no second hand car sales will take cash.
Again, we are running into the same old PB problem.
I entirely agree with you. I'm not sure the voting public does.
You might be right, but not sure about the cash aspect. I definitely think there is more an uninformed feeling that they get much massive wiggle room to be tax efficient if you are self employed e.g. the idea that they are all writing off all sorts of purchases, that can be used personally, against their tax bill and somehow that is free.
It's a bit like people who think a tax write off means "it's free".
TBH there's an awful lot of people on PAYE earning X where X is 50k<X<100k that would do well by doing a tax return. Gift aid if nothing else.
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
I think Sky has about 13 million households as customers these days, just behind Netflix who have about 15 million. About 1/3 of the country pay for it.
Another reminder that Suank is backable in Richmond and Corbyn is layable in North Islington for prices I consider totally unreasonable. I have provided caveats about both of these bets before so won't bother now other than to say DYOR.
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
Went without cable TV? For his generation that would be a hardship for a child, particularly if most of his peers did have cable in their homes.
But yes, luxury. Speaking as one who grew up before cable TV was ubiquitous, and where you got three TV channels. And no broadcasts from midnight to 5am or thereabouts; should know for as a kid, used to get up early on Saturdays, watch TV test pattern for half-hour, then the national anthem with visuals of US Air Fore jets & similar, the actual programming - cartoons!
All this on a black and white TV. In distant mist of time, when UKers were still calling TV "the telly".
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.
Is today's Jack W not the same as the one of a few years ago?
"I knew Jack W. I used to hurl insults at Jack W across PB. Sir and/or Madam, you are no Jack W."
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
Went without cable TV? For his generation that would be a hardship for a child, particularly if most of his peers did have cable in their homes.
But yes, luxury. Speaking as one who grew up before cable TV was ubiquitous, and where you got three TV channels. And no broadcasts from midnight to 5am or thereabouts; should know for as a kid, used to get up early on Saturdays, watch TV test pattern for half-hour, then the national anthem with visuals of US Air Fore jets & similar, the actual programming - cartoons!
All this on a black and white TV. In distant mist of time, when UKers were still calling TV "the telly".
Cable TV in the UK in the 1980s? You must be joking. Didn't exist. 😊
How come no-one else there left early? No media company would say anything if the PM postpones or turns up late becuase he was at a war memorial service, remembering those who literally made the ultimate sacrifice for their country.
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
Went without cable TV? For his generation that would be a hardship for a child, particularly if most of his peers did have cable in their homes.
But yes, luxury. Speaking as one who grew up before cable TV was ubiquitous, and where you got three TV channels. And no broadcasts from midnight to 5am or thereabouts; should know for as a kid, used to get up early on Saturdays, watch TV test pattern for half-hour, then the national anthem with visuals of US Air Fore jets & similar, the actual programming - cartoons!
All this on a black and white TV. In distant mist of time, when UKers were still calling TV "the telly".
Cable TV in the UK in the 1980s? You must be joking. Didn't exist. 😊
Yes, I was thinking that. The UK had 3 channels until Channel 4 in 1981ish, then 4 until Channel 5 in the mid 90s, satellite television (Sky) in the early 90s, then subscription channels in the Noughties and now everything since about the 2010s. UK didn't really have cable, and those cable shows that were imported were shown on the terrestrial channels.
The Express front page - 100,000 migrants deported (makes a change from promising a free owl) that according to the Express is a Rishi Promise that “has fired up the General Election” - is that actually in the manifesto? What price tag is next to it?
No-one believes this would happen, even if they support it.
Well quite. Given the government’s total inability to deport anyone except some poor guy who arrived on a boat from Jamaica in the ‘60s and never got his papers in order, or a couple of Australian pensioners who overstayed a visit visa two decades ago, no-one believes there’s any chance Sunak can successfully deport anyone arriving today.
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
Went without cable TV? For his generation that would be a hardship for a child, particularly if most of his peers did have cable in their homes.
But yes, luxury. Speaking as one who grew up before cable TV was ubiquitous, and where you got three TV channels. And no broadcasts from midnight to 5am or thereabouts; should know for as a kid, used to get up early on Saturdays, watch TV test pattern for half-hour, then the national anthem with visuals of US Air Fore jets & similar, the actual programming - cartoons!
All this on a black and white TV. In distant mist of time, when UKers were still calling TV "the telly".
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
Went without cable TV? For his generation that would be a hardship for a child, particularly if most of his peers did have cable in their homes.
But yes, luxury. Speaking as one who grew up before cable TV was ubiquitous, and where you got three TV channels. And no broadcasts from midnight to 5am or thereabouts; should know for as a kid, used to get up early on Saturdays, watch TV test pattern for half-hour, then the national anthem with visuals of US Air Fore jets & similar, the actual programming - cartoons!
All this on a black and white TV. In distant mist of time, when UKers were still calling TV "the telly".
Cable TV in the UK in the 1980s? You must be joking. Didn't exist. 😊
Except in Milton Keynes. (And Aberdeen, apparently - didn’t know that until I just googled it.)
The Express front page - 100,000 migrants deported (makes a change from promising a free owl) that according to the Express is a Rishi Promise that “has fired up the General Election” - is that actually in the manifesto? What price tag is next to it?
No-one believes this would happen, even if they support it.
Well quite. Given the government’s total inability to deport anyone except some poor guy who arrived on a boat from Jamaica in the ‘60s and never got his papers in order, or a couple of Australian pensioners who overstayed a visit visa two decades ago, no-one believes there’s any chance Sunak can successfully deport anyone arriving today.
The ones who have came over as children and have been living here since the 50s and 60s, have worked and paid their taxes since the 1970s but failed to leave the UK for a trip abroad seem easier pickings than the ones who just came over on a boat from Calais.
One hundred thousand of them? Piece of cake, and with the performative cruelty turned up to eleven, what could go wrong?
It’s a fair criticism except that NI isn’t tethered to the state pension - it’s just another tax. Arguably you could link the state pension to lifetime income tax or business tax payments. Or just forget the contribution part and pay everyone over 67 or whatever age you choose, irrespective of contribution. Or you turn NI into a proper ring fenced, contribution based pension.
Yes, you could do any of those things, or more, but the crucial point here is the Conservatives have steamed into this without even noticing the problem, let alone thinking about a solution. It's a slogan, not a policy. And not the first with this government, this party, in this election. National service was the same.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
So you qualify for a State Retirement Pension (SRP) year simply by saying you are self-employed?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
That is why I said it is a stupid policy. But KGM is trying to make out that those genuinely self employed as a career won't be paying for their state pension. Besdies, NI isn't ring fenced, it just part of the tax take that goes into the pot.
You're missing the point - we need a way to qualify for the State Pension. Currently that's NI contributions (or credits). Personally I would do away with NI altogether and just use ICT payments to accrue State Pension rights but that's not being offered.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
I think we are at cross wires. I am not arguing for the policy, I was saying KGM was talking nonsense along with MS. He was making it sound like all self employed will get a free pension.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
Fair enough.
It is crazy Tory policy though. Not only practically, but politically.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
A of people in salaried jobs think self-employed people are engaged in rampant tax evasion anyway. It just makes the Conservatives look like an accessory to the crime.
(I don't think that is true personally, but if you consider things like music tuition, cash only trades... you can see why the perception exists)
Outside of the money laundering barbers / car washes, is there really much cash in hand work these days? Take aways I guess.
But none of the traditional trades wants to have to have cash over very small amounts, its too risky and too much of a pain in the ass in order to dodge a bit of tax here and there e.g. no legit second hand car sales will take cash as they don't want £5k in £20 notes in the way Arthur Daley or Delboy types used to walk around with the massive wads of cash.
A lot of cash in hand work based on the tradesmen I use.
NI is a different world ;-)
I might be totally wrong on this. I don't think I have been offered "cash" price for years and I have a friend who owns a second hand car lot and he says absolutely no best price for cash anymore and doesn't know anybody who wants to be anywhere near the stuff. It is just too much hassle these days. What do you do with £1000s in £20s like some drug dealer, you can't bank the stuff and you are just asking to get robbed.
Cash businesses these days seem more about money laundering the proceeds of crime than defrauding the tax man of some VAT.
Car dealers all got hit up a few years back, by the latest version of the money laundering regs. Unless you’re right at the bottom end of the market, buying and selling junk for a few hundred quid, it’s all bank transfers now.
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Luxury.
I think Sky has about 13 million households as customers these days, just behind Netflix who have about 15 million. About 1/3 of the country pay for it.
Sky Sports is by far the best value of all the networks, including the BBC. It’s fantastic value for the sheer quantity and quality of the live sport you get.
Sky News is also the best news channel (although that is damning by faint praise).
£4800 on your mortgage seems a bit of a stretch. I don't see another substantial increase in interest rates any time soon. They are, if anything, edging down in the gilt markets.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
Surely they're not going to broadcast that? It's terminal.
I thought it was all over, but that is so grim. Complaining about it running over even while you're leaving a day early.
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
It's like someone turning up late and telling you they were stuck in traffic or the train was cancelled and you know perfectly well it wasn't. Or, 'Sorry I'm late, the funeral overran.'
Jeepers, what is this guy doing in Politics, or public life at all? He's in the wrong frigging job!
This is the problem with the £2,000 figure. Gives room for Labour to just double it and fire back. Both numbers are effective because everyone thinks taxes and going up and the Conservatives have form for smashing people with mortgages.
Comments
As I said earlier there will be nerves in the Labour camp. Not panic, but definitely nerves
We need the Tories to move en masse to Reform to make this REALLY exciting
This one looks suspect to me. No way Lib Dems and Greens are on the same vote share.
https://www.ft.com/content/389eeb19-1abb-4961-91fe-ce1b1631bf3e
LLG vs RefCon down two: 57 to 36
If it's the breaking of the large amount of Tory 2019 don't knows into a decision (not likely to be Labour, otherwise why haven't they gone before?), then it doesn't even need to be a Labour fall to produce those changes.
It isn't good news for the Tories. They are getting closer and closer to that cliff edge.
And they are absolutely sworn certain that FPTP is the one, true, holy and apostolic reflection of the Will of the People.
Registering as self employed and paying class 2 was a lot cheaper than buying stamps. I wonder if any non-workers pulled that trick?
Mrs P had to buy back 5 years to get a full SRP - she'll be delighted to hear that the window cleaner's getting his for free.
- ------
That is from 13 year ago. Also if you look it is heavily skewed by people reporting basically zero income, they aren't really self employed. The latest figures will also be heavily skewed by gig economy workers.
As I say, it isn't also about a single year, I said they won't stay self employed for long on those income levels. I am talking about those that make self employed as a career.
Doesn't pass the smell test to me, but it's a strange election, so who knows.
We've had a couple of weeks of campaign with seeing huge leads for Labour now, with people also seeing the campaign not apparently making much difference to that either way.
If that trend merges with anti-establishment feeling, Reform and LD could be the big other winners in a Starmer parliament.
Or you turn NI into a proper ring fenced, contribution based pension.
I find that hard to believe. He clearly LOVES being POTFR
On the other hand, if he does lose this, then his entire domestic agenda is stalled and he’s a lame duck waiting to be turned into confit by MLP in 2027
Maybe he WILL resign
Better than cash as you can pop them straight into your bank account, instead of lugging them around with you and breeding the mofos into tiny shards of pointless metal.
Clearly the Tories haven't thought this through.
https://x.com/scotlibdems/status/1800619274244870612
makes a change from pricing up cost of a free owls I suppose.
A government with a 200 majority which did that would get my vote, even if the benefits to me personally weren't what I liked.
See also we are moving towards UBI for the over 67's. Except we aren't cos it's a Tory proposal. But Opposition (and let's face it, that's what they are now, and have been for some time), proposals are frequently nicked.
As I said in other posts, its a stupid policy. My criticism was KGM making out its free pension for all self employed, a) NI isn't ring fenced, you pay IC, and b) earn £50k and you pay other NI and those that do it for a career will likely be doing so.
Those figures are heavily skewed by people playing at a business for a year or two. You can't run a business and earn £10k a year, even £20k, because they can get minimum wage job that pays more than that.
The Tories have offered a bribe to the self-employed (fair enough) but they clearly haven't thought through the unintended consequences.
PDLR sounds like an obscure EU directive or maybe a communist groupuscule in Asia. POTFR sounds like a Frenchman vaguely spitting in anger “pottifffrrr!” And also is in English rather than that idiot dialect, French
Lets just say for arguments sake, this policy is reality, you give the company thing a go and make £5k for a couple of years. You will jack it in. And its not hugely different to how students get some free credited years, we don't say all students are getting a free pension because of that.
The exception is gig workers, who really do work for £15k a year.
Even as a bribe, I don't think it will excite many.
See Liberals passim.
In fact, the -4 for Labour can be entirely explained by a 50% increase in the absolute number of people saying they will vote Reform, and a 30% increase in the number of people for LD and Green, even while the number of people saying they will vote Tory and Labour remains exactly the same.
That is why this could be so deadly for the Conservatives. An increase in turnout for Reform and LD voters will cause much more problems for the Tories than the same for the Greens for Labour.
Tax breaks for landlords and small businesses owners. Nobody like landlords and lots of people on £30k a year will be, hey, what about me, why do I have to pay the NI, I am not rolling in money.
The consensus from most of the questions asked and the responses from the audience is that the country is broken. So the polling showing the SNP getting smashed is likely correct. But outside the central belt supposedly its a two horse race between Tory/SNP who offer the same recipe...
I just can't see how the sums add up at all.
It may be a bit of a gift to Labour.
Its like a Gareth Southgate England team with 5 at the back and no Kane, Bellingham or Saka. Nobody is getting excited about that watching that or would think they could win the Euros.
FF 1
FG 1
SF 1
LAB 1
SSI - as I predicted (very late) transfers from GRN were like rocket fuel for LAB, who got +16,614 from them compared to just +926 for the right-wing anti-immigration-shock-jock Independent for Ireland guy who came in 5th place for the booby prize (aka wooden spoon).
In Irish local elections, 3 seats out of 949 still undecided.
He can't bring himself to actually be the "sensible, good governance, do the right thing even if it's unpopular" person. Think Ken Clarke in the runup to 1997. Equally, he doesn't have the nerve to be full-on right wing batso. Think (if you dare) of Truss. Or Braverman.
Unfortuantely for Rishi, he has ended up annoying both sides.
(I don't think that is true personally, but if you consider things like music tuition, cash only trades... you can see why the perception exists)
For evidence, how long has Meloni been in? The Sheen is already beginning to wear off, especially in eyes of the working class.
Winning Snappy Lec in France could set up a long few years for Le Pen and her party.
To look forward how it could develop, we need to look back a few years. The Yellow vests standing side by side on the barricades were of both the Pop left and the Pop right. The Populism of both Melenchon and Le Pen share much the same thinking - draw bridge up approach, history of euro scepticism, links to Putin similar to some of the Italian Populists (interesting Meloni differs from the hard and populist right in Italy by being anti Putin). And because of this, sometimes the same voters. But the Right winning Snappy Lec, the Left out of power, could change that swappable dynamic by the time of the next elections.
But none of the traditional trades wants to have to have cash over very small amounts, its too risky and too much of a pain in the ass in order to dodge a bit of tax here and there e.g. no legit second hand car sales will take cash as they don't want £5k in £20 notes in the way Arthur Daley or Delboy types used to walk around with the massive wads of cash.
Pisses off sane middle of the road Conservatives (think road safety types on the Parish Council), doesn't really persuade the gammonry that he actually cares about motorists at all.
I entirely agree with you. I'm not sure the voting public does.
Second Farage wants to replace the Tories largely as Le Pen has replaced Les Republicains as the main party of the right, not do deals with them (although Le Pen and her party can't get a majority in France without the majority of votes of first round Les Republicains voters against Macron and his party or Melenchon and his block in the second round)
The point being saying “I look the sound of that” but on learning the price, not liking it so much.
It might even see some Labour and LD tactical votes for the Tories and Giles Watling in Clacton to beat Farage too
I might be totally wrong on this. I don't think I have been offered "cash" price for years and I have a friend who owns a second hand car lot and he says absolutely no best price for cash anymore and doesn't know anybody who wants to be anywhere near the stuff. It is just too much hassle these days. What do you do with £1000s in £20s like some drug dealer, you can't bank the stuff and you are just asking to get robbed.
Cash businesses these days seem more about money laundering the proceeds of crime than defrauding the tax man of some VAT.
If the Tories stood down candidates in seats where Reform is likely to win, that would be them basically admitting defeat, even if it could achieve a combined REFUK/CON party as the opposition. At that point you might as well make Farage the nominal leader of the Tory Party - and many Tories would refuse a deal like that. Also a sizeable chunk of the remaining Tory voters would flock to Labour / Lib Dems. Also, unlike in 2019 - many Reform voters would actually prefer a Labour government to a Tory one - and so I don't know if this even entices them.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/11/french-far-right-national-rally-les-republicains-election-pact-talks
A
S
H
So basically France looks like electing their equivalent of Farage's party to be the largest in the French parliament with the French Corbyn's party potentially forming the main opposition!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_French_legislative_election
MEP gains in Dublin constituency for both Labour and Sinn Fein.
Lord Sumption, who last week quit territory’s top court, speaks out on ‘paranoid atmosphere’ under Chinese rule"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/11/hong-kong-slowly-becoming-totalitarian-state-says-uk-judge-jonathan-sumption
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/12/rishi-sunak-went-without-lots-of-things-including-sky-tv-as-a-child
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
TBH there's an awful lot of people on PAYE earning X where X is 50k<X<100k that would do well by doing a tax return. Gift aid if nothing else.
"It was incredible, but it just ran over. Apologies for keeping you"
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1800668636606312481
hahahahahahahahhaahahhahahahahahaha
Please tell me in full version he goes on about a bigoted woman saying mean things about the germans
But yes, luxury. Speaking as one who grew up before cable TV was ubiquitous, and where you got three TV channels. And no broadcasts from midnight to 5am or thereabouts; should know for as a kid, used to get up early on Saturdays, watch TV test pattern for half-hour, then the national anthem with visuals of US Air Fore jets & similar, the actual programming - cartoons!
All this on a black and white TV. In distant mist of time, when UKers were still calling TV "the telly".
"I knew Jack W. I used to hurl insults at Jack W across PB. Sir and/or Madam, you are no Jack W."
How come no-one else there left early? No media company would say anything if the PM postpones or turns up late becuase he was at a war memorial service, remembering those who literally made the ultimate sacrifice for their country.
One hundred thousand of them? Piece of cake, and with the performative cruelty turned up to eleven, what could go wrong?
She might be alright.
https://x.com/skynews/status/1800547242257830050?s=61
Sky News is also the best news channel (although that is damning by faint praise).
Gives it one more day in the headlines at least.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
Jeepers, what is this guy doing in Politics, or public life at all? He's in the wrong frigging job!