Fieldwork Mon/Tue (around Lib Dem manfiesto coverage)
but did we do this bit
@DrAlanWager This, plugged into the FT's model (which does not explicitly try to guess at how tactical voters will split), gives the Lib Dems over 100 seats and the Conservative Party 31.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
A longtime Tory candidate for Torbay posted on the site for a while. Marcus Wood? That may have been his name.
FT going nice and gentle are Sunak’s manifesto as big Front Page splash. I thought they would have focused more harshly on the dodgy revenue schemes. Perhaps they would have done if he was 20 points ahead?
The “I” has gone gentle on Sunak’s Manifesto too. Tories getting away with all that dodgy maths.
Manifestos are like budgets...they unravel over time.
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.
Fieldwork Mon/Tue (around Lib Dem manfiesto coverage)
but did we do this bit
@DrAlanWager This, plugged into the FT's model (which does not explicitly try to guess at how tactical voters will split), gives the Lib Dems over 100 seats and the Conservative Party 31.
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Why would centrist Tories support a party to the left of Labour?
You are making the error of thinking voters are rational.
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Except on tonight's Yougov it is Labour voters going LD, hence Labour down now even below Corbyn 2017 levels and Starmer Labour a full 5% below the 43% for Blair's New Labour in 1997.
Tories meanwhile still ahead of Reform even with Yougov
😌 No.
Simply how do you see TV impacting the PV? Nothing?
It was an LLG of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries of TV, even getting Ref TV to get the Tories out. Lib Dem’s will draw TC from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV. Greens won’t get TV and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib Dem 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref to Labour TV, taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV greens don’t get 4 and Lib Dem 14.
Anyone else understand this? No? Me neither.
Allow me
Simply how do you see TV [tricuspid valve] impacting the PV [pole vault]? Nothing?
It was an LLG [lymphoma low grade] of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries [beneficiaries] of TV [tunnel vision], even getting Ref [reflux] TV [turkey vulture] to get the Tories out. Lib [library] Dem [demand]’s will draw TC [tai chi] from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV [peripheral vision]. Greens won’t get TV [tidal volume] and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib [Libra] Dem [demon] 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref [refractory] to Labour TV [Treaty of Versailles], taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV [transitive verb] greens don’t get 4 and Lib [Liberal] Dem [Democrats] 14.
Ah, thanks - all makes perfect sense now.
You bastards.
Honestly MoonRabbit, I didn't understand your post. I wanted to - I'm interested in what you have to say - but it made no sense to me at all. Sorry.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
If you've never travelled for more than a couple of weeks, bugger off now for a couple of months and see if it palls. £1500 all in per month doable short haul if you pick the right places - airbnb places often have low monthly rates, so it pays not to move too often. Of course you have picked the wrong time of year, price-wise, for the wanderlust.
Not true. You can do Eastern Europe and it’s cheap away from the Med. And often lovely
Albania is cheap and the locals are friendly (they appear to have exported their criminals). Kosovo also nice, but no beaches. Poland and the Baltics are getting more expensive.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
Didn't tissueprice post under that name long before he ran for Parliament? ISTR, he announced he'd been adopted as a candidate on here. And only then was I aware of his IRL name. Similar to Rochdale.
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.
I agree but a constitutional change by the HoC overriding a referendum vote? Are you ok with that principle?
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Why would centrist Tories support a party to the left of Labour?
You are making the error of thinking voters are rational.
It's not even necessarily irrational.
FPTP encourages a "what's the best way of kicking the party I don't like?" approach.
That isn't automatically wrong, but it's not always pretty.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
I've always found it hard to believe that Snowflake was whom I've heard it rumoured she was, considering that when she was active I'd have thought she'd have been at her most busy to have much time to be active on PB. Would have thought she'd have had more available time while the Tories have been office but silence in that period, seems odd.
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
The only way to get electoral reform is to get a hung Parliament first. No government with an overall majority will ever volunteer to give it up. I wish it were otherwise, but them's the facts!
FT going nice and gentle are Sunak’s manifesto as big Front Page splash. I thought they would have focused more harshly on the dodgy revenue schemes. Perhaps they would have done if he was 20 points ahead?
The “I” has gone gentle on Sunak’s Manifesto too. Tories getting away with all that dodgy maths.
Tories treated like Liberal Democrats? It ain't gonna happen so it ain't worth scrutinising closely.
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
The only way to get electoral reform is to get a hung Parliament first. No government with an overall majority will ever volunteer to give it up. I wish it were otherwise, but them's the facts!
A new Labour government could try to do things differently.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
If you've never travelled for more than a couple of weeks, bugger off now for a couple of months and see if it palls. £1500 all in per month doable short haul if you pick the right places - airbnb places often have low monthly rates, so it pays not to move too often. Of course you have picked the wrong time of year, price-wise, for the wanderlust.
Not true. You can do Eastern Europe and it’s cheap away from the Med. And often lovely
Albania is cheap and the locals are friendly (they appear to have exported their criminals). Kosovo also nice, but no beaches. Poland and the Baltics are getting more expensive.
Rural moldova, rural Bulgaria, inland Montenegro, rural Romania, mainland Greece is particularly stunning. And cheap. And sunny
And go to Ukraine if you want magnificent cities and a unique experience (and the odd drone and air raid siren). Lviv and Odessa are world class. Kyiv is fascinating for a few days. Smaller towns like chernivtsi are beguiling, too
That’s life sorted til October when the weather turns. Then you move on to Asia
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.
Actually I don't think they could.
The sovereign will not be happy about such a massive constitutional change without a manifesto commitment and nor would the Lords.
FT going nice and gentle are Sunak’s manifesto as big Front Page splash. I thought they would have focused more harshly on the dodgy revenue schemes. Perhaps they would have done if he was 20 points ahead?
The “I” has gone gentle on Sunak’s Manifesto too. Tories getting away with all that dodgy maths.
Tories treated like Liberal Democrats? It ain't gonna happen so it ain't worth scrutinising closely.
The Independent is all excited by the manifesto on its front page “PM invokes spirit of Thatcher, with NI cuts and right to buy”.
The Telegraph certainly loves it, especially the right to buy scheme.
Daily Mail has Rishi awarding Aspiration. At last the “A” word Tories should be fighting on.
Maybe we all misjudged what a success this manifesto has been?
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.
I agree but a constitutional change by the HoC overriding a referendum vote? Are you ok with that principle?
Same approach could be applied to Re-join.
Was just done with the PPC and Mayoral voting system. It isn't a Constitutional change. It's a voting system change. Not the same thing. At all.
Probably the right decision but why take so long to confirm it
Its like the Tories sticking with Sunak....
Except Ten Hag miraculously, at the very last moment, kept them in Europe.
In the European equivalent of the League Cup. Sunak miraculously keeps Tories in second place....otherwise its European UEFA Conference League for those in 3rd, where even fans don't watch the games.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
Given how much she supposedly despises him, that'd tickle me a little.
I read up and their Assembly elections are quite electorally interesting in that they are similar but different to the presidential election.
That is, they are done in 2 rounds, but where a run off is needed, any candidate getting 12.5% of the total electoral, so turnout and vote share dependent, gets in the run off.
It's not front and centre in the write ups of previous elections, but I guess that, differently to the presidential election, there end up being a lot of 3 way (or more) contests in the second round, and the balance of party strengths and the number of 3 ways happening has a big effect on the result -mainly 3(+) ways suits RN better, mainly 2 ways suits Macron. And it looks a pretty 3 way tussle this go.
(Don't know why they don't just go STV on the same constituencies tbh, for this type of contest certainly.)
Is that a fair assessment and has 2-way / 3-way influenced the course of past elections?
(I'm avoiding ribald analogies here)
Its very French, why just have one day of elections, when you can have two.
Do they stop voting for lunch between 12.00 and 2.30?
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
I believe the story is about children, kittens, half a jar of peanut butter and a 1972 Austin Allegra.
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Except on tonight's Yougov it is Labour voters going LD, hence Labour down now even below Corbyn 2017 levels and Starmer Labour a full 5% below the 43% for Blair's New Labour in 1997.
Tories meanwhile still ahead of Reform even with Yougov
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
The only way to get electoral reform is to get a hung Parliament first. No government with an overall majority will ever volunteer to give it up. I wish it were otherwise, but them's the facts!
A new Labour government could try to do things differently.
I wish that were so - but why would a Labour government with a big majority legislate to give that up?
Probably the right decision but why take so long to confirm it
Its like the Tories sticking with Sunak....
Except Ten Hag miraculously, at the very last moment, kept them in Europe.
In the European equivalent of the League Cup. Sunak miraculously keeps Tories in second place....otherwise its European UEFA Conference League for those in 3rd.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
Peter, I'm pretty certain that Louise Mensch did not post under her own name but as com*******r.
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.
Actually I don't think they could.
The sovereign will not be happy about such a massive constitutional change without a manifesto commitment and nor would the Lords.
Maybe LAB will have it in the manifesto. But they probably won't!
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.
Actually I don't think they could.
The sovereign will not be happy about such a massive constitutional change without a manifesto commitment and nor would the Lords.
Maybe LAB will have it in the manifesto. But they probably won't!
Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
When do we get to see this interview?
I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say
I wonder what Sunak will say? Perhaps "I have a plan, my plan is working, Starmer has no plan, except increasing taxes for every working person by £2017 every day".
I would be interested in the results of a poll that asked whether voters would be willing to pay an additional £2,017 in tax, in return for better services.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
Peter, I'm pretty certain that Louis Mensch did not post under her own name but as com*******r.
Posting under your own name is crazy. Post under a pseudonym like I do. Nobody has a clue what my name is...
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.
I agree but a constitutional change by the HoC overriding a referendum vote? Are you ok with that principle?
Same approach could be applied to Re-join.
Was just done with the PPC and Mayoral voting system. It isn't a Constitutional change. It's a voting system change. Not the same thing. At all.
Fair point. I hope Labour go for it.
In the event the Tories are down in 3rd place on seats despite coming 2nd in the vote will they embrace PR?
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
If you've never travelled for more than a couple of weeks, bugger off now for a couple of months and see if it palls. £1500 all in per month doable short haul if you pick the right places - airbnb places often have low monthly rates, so it pays not to move too often. Of course you have picked the wrong time of year, price-wise, for the wanderlust.
Not true. You can do Eastern Europe and it’s cheap away from the Med. And often lovely
Albania is cheap and the locals are friendly (they appear to have exported their criminals). Kosovo also nice, but no beaches. Poland and the Baltics are getting more expensive.
Rural moldova, rural Bulgaria, inland Montenegro, rural Romania, mainland Greece is particularly stunning. And cheap. And sunny
And go to Ukraine if you want magnificent cities and a unique experience (and the odd drone and air raid siren). Lviv and Odessa are world class. Kyiv is fascinating for a few days. Smaller towns like chernivtsi are beguiling, too
That’s life sorted til October when the weather turns. Then you move on to Asia
I have unfortunately only spent one long weekend in Romania (Cluj, Wizz had just started direct flights and they were bugger cheap) and not been to Bulgaria. Ukraine is nice, Lviv is a mini Kraków and the battlefield of Poltava is worth a visit. Ate dried fish (taranka) in a bar in Kyiv. Did my first trip to SEA this winter (Thai and Cambodia) and hope to go back for my first retired winter starting with Nam north to south
I don't really buy the Lib Dem Ed Davey gurn surge. It feels a bit confected, as the Cleggasm did.
It’s somewhat gentler and more muted than that. A few polls showing them flat or up a percent or two, a couple showing them down, and one with a big rise. Looks like an outlier. Not the stuff of Cleggmania.
Headline VI isn’t going to be that important for the Lib Dems anyway, keeping a reasonable share but with better voting efficiency is the key.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
I believe the story is about children, kittens, half a jar of peanut butter and a 1972 Austin Allegra.
Not Allegra Austin ?
The Telegraph are running with it on their front page. In juxtaposition to their coverage of Rishi’s present and supporting wife.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
Peter, I'm pretty certain that Louis Mensch did not post under her own name but as com*******r.
You may be right, John, but I can't think how I would have known the name if she didn't volunteer it. Nobody passed it on to me, as they did with Snowflake.
Anyway, it was a very long time ago and she stopped posting soon after leaving the House.
How's you? Keeping the Peril at bay down there in the wilds of Hersham?
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Of course it was. He was waiting for Dross to give a dodgy penalty in favour of Rangers.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
Peter, I'm pretty certain that Louise Mensch did not post under her own name but as com*******r.
Some of us are so ancient we can even remember TSE posting under his real name. Or, at least, under a plausible forename-surname combination that was definitely not The Screaming Eagles.
Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
When do we get to see this interview?
I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say
I wonder what Sunak will say? Perhaps "I have a plan, my plan is working, Starmer has no plan, except increasing taxes for every working person by £2017 every day".
I would be interested in the results of a poll that asked whether voters would be willing to pay an additional £2,017 in tax, in return for better services.
The equation is that someone else pays extra tax and we get better services.
Hence why Labour will I expect make more of the difference in where the manifestos fall. Tories give tax cuts for the richest and batter the poor (that does seem to be the case with todays manifesto), Labour will soak the oil barons/hedge funds/non doms etc. In fact they could subtly hint that they will raise taxes on Tories but non Tory voters will be fine. Some might believe it.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.
Not only did he freeze yesterday, he mixed up Iraq and Ukraine. It is literally every single day.
Yep. He’s declining daily. Trump is not far behind but gets away with it - to an extent - because he’s always rambled
But this is fucking insane. The most important job in the world and the only real candidates are two dribbling old fools. The western world is at a moment of maximum peril and America has a choice between senile hypocrisy and demented villainy. Enough!!!!!
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.
Is it? Not one I'm party to.
Well, I'm not going to dox him. It would be impolite.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside). Long term you won't make it work if you earn such a small amount as no wiggle room for any fluctuation in earnings.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.
Is it? Not one I'm party to.
Well, I'm not going to dox him. It would be impolite.
Quite right too. But he's obviously been doxxed before.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
Peter, I'm pretty certain that Louis Mensch did not post under her own name but as com*******r.
You may be right, John, but I can't think how I would have known the name if she didn't volunteer it. Nobody passed it on to me, as they did with Snowflake.
Anyway, it was a very long time ago and she stopped posting soon after leaving the House.
How's you? Keeping the Peril at bay down there in the wilds of Hersham?
Of course, she was Louise Bagshawe for much of the time. Perhaps, she was outed privately at one those notorious dissolute pb boozy gatherings?
Sadly, they have already stormed the gates...I am but the last remaing but heroically redoubtable survivor.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
If you've never travelled for more than a couple of weeks, bugger off now for a couple of months and see if it palls. £1500 all in per month doable short haul if you pick the right places - airbnb places often have low monthly rates, so it pays not to move too often. Of course you have picked the wrong time of year, price-wise, for the wanderlust.
Not true. You can do Eastern Europe and it’s cheap away from the Med. And often lovely
Albania is cheap and the locals are friendly (they appear to have exported their criminals). Kosovo also nice, but no beaches. Poland and the Baltics are getting more expensive.
Rural moldova, rural Bulgaria, inland Montenegro, rural Romania, mainland Greece is particularly stunning. And cheap. And sunny
And go to Ukraine if you want magnificent cities and a unique experience (and the odd drone and air raid siren). Lviv and Odessa are world class. Kyiv is fascinating for a few days. Smaller towns like chernivtsi are beguiling, too
That’s life sorted til October when the weather turns. Then you move on to Asia
I have unfortunately only spent one long weekend in Romania (Cluj, Wizz had just started direct flights and they were bugger cheap) and not been to Bulgaria. Ukraine is nice, Lviv is a mini Kraków and the battlefield of Poltava is worth a visit. Ate dried fish (taranka) in a bar in Kyiv. Did my first trip to SEA this winter (Thai and Cambodia) and hope to go back for my first retired winter starting with Nam north to south
SE Asia from November-March is the best place in the world. Stupendous food, fascinating cultures, great weather. Mighty cities as well - glittering and safe
Phnom Penh is my new favourite city. The restaurants of bassac lane!!
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Absolutely, or it was his kids watching YouTube, or something...I couldn't keep up with the every changing excuse.
Here’s a true story, as we are past the lagershed
I was once in a Luxor hotel researching some ancient flints and I got bored and lonely in my hotel room. I had an iPad with me - probably iPad 1 it was so early - and I realised I had a wavering bit of signal. Just enough to watch porn. Proto 3G?
But massively expensive. £29 for 3MB etc
I warned myself - right, 2 minutes, Kleenex, finished
About five hours later I energetically culminated and looked in horror at my data usage. Gigabytes on gigabytes. I realised I’d probably spent £5k or £10k on a single wank
And this was before the days of my affluence
No way I could pay a £10k phone bill so the next day I concocted a plan. I decided to go to the police and report that my iPad had been stolen. So I’d have a get-out when Vodafone came asking for their £10,000
I went into the Luxor police station and reported my iPad was stolen but as soon as I began making my report I realised this didn’t make sense - how and where was it stolen? Just that? In my hotel room? - and if they got suspicious they might find I still had my iPad…. so I changed my story to “I loaned my iPad to a dubious person and I think they might have misused it while I was asleep” and at this point the Egyptian policeman was essentially laughing in my face and asking his colleagues to come and listen to the most insane load of bullshit ever heard in the Upper Nile so I pretended I felt suddenly unwell and fled back to my hotel with this bankrupting wank-bill looming
When I got back to England my monthly Vodafone bill arrived. £32. For some reason my MASSIVE DATA USAGE never registered
Nobody with your fertile imagination should need internet porn to finish a successful wank in two minutes.
I'm watching the Scottish Leaders debate on catchup. Wowsers. John Swinney is an unhappy chappy. Keeps being called out for all of the austerity and cuts his government have imposed. And the defence? "Westminster". He's a bit prickly!
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).
How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?
Same way as for example people in higher education get years credited.
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
British weather is now unacceptable
You can seriously have a blast wandering the world. I am. Take Ukraine. Ok there’s a war on but if you’re careful it’s not THAT dangerous - it is also a lot more interesting than sitting at home in a bed sit in Balham. Or Bootle
Everything is insanely cheap. I just had a really good Italian meal - two large aperol spritz, inventive bruschetta, seafood fettuccine, glass of good white, at a restaurant in the most fashionable bit of Odessa - beautiful Odessa - £15
If you want good borscht and beer you can eat really well for £5. A bus from Kyiv to Odessa - £13
And thanks to our digital world you can stay in touch with everyone. I had a long WhatsApp chat with my brother in Peru then a group chat with friends and now I’m hanging out on PB
You no longer need to be anywhere in particular. If you can work from home you can work on the road where food is cheap, the sun shines, you see endlessly interesting things, and tax is zero
We could have had that if we hadn’t had 14 years of a grifter friendly Tory government.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.
Original? So who is the sporadic contributor now, a young pretender?
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
British weather is now unacceptable
You can seriously have a blast wandering the world. I am. Take Ukraine. Ok there’s a war on but if you’re careful it’s not THAT dangerous - it is also a lot more interesting than sitting at home in a bed sit in Balham. Or Bootle
Everything is insanely cheap. I just had a really good Italian meal - two large aperol spritz, inventive bruschetta, seafood fettuccine, glass of good white, at a restaurant in the most fashionable bit of Odessa - beautiful Odessa - £15
If you want good borscht and beer you can eat really well for £5. A bus from Kyiv to Odessa - £13
And thanks to our digital world you can stay in touch with everyone. I had a long WhatsApp chat with my brother in Peru then a group chat with friends and now I’m hanging out on PB
You no longer need to be anywhere in particular. If you can work from home you can work on the road where food is cheap, the sun shines, you see endlessly interesting things, and tax is zero
We could have had that if we hadn’t had 14 years of a grifter friendly Tory government.
I yield to no one in my contempt for these wet lefty Tories but how are they responsible for a globalised, digitised world allowing freelancers to work anywhere, and how are they responsible fir giving london the climate of Anchorage?
Neil Henderson @hendopolis · 7m I: Labour promises £12 an hour to care workers #TomorrowsPapersToday
Why just care workers?
Presumably to create a premium. If the low paid care worker issue were to be addressed by raising the minimum wage, then it would do nothing to help. Wages for supermarket shelf stackers and other roles that most people would find easier than, and preferable to, wiping bottoms would rise just as much, and keep dragging potential workers away.
Evidence beginning to tentatively build that the Labour vote is falling. As was widely anticipated. But, that the Tory share is also on the slide. Not expected. It's very much MOE. But when MOE is all in the same direction, it begins, after a decent interval, to constitute a pattern.
For Labour to lose the froth from 47 to 43 isn’t so bad. But for Tories to be under 25, each point backwards should be eating into their heartlands, each point worse than Labours froth drop. It is all very curious and unbelievable. Unless seen through a prism where Conservatives see Farage as the best Conservative in the field.
KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside). Long term you won't make it work if you earn such a small amount as no wiggle room for any fluctuation in earnings.
Just shows how out of touch you are: 95% of self-employed were earning <£50k in 2021-22:
Evidence beginning to tentatively build that the Labour vote is falling. As was widely anticipated. But, that the Tory share is also on the slide. Not expected.
The question is whether the Labour vote is mostly falling in their safe seats, or is it dropping everywhere?
Comments
@SamCoatesSky
Sky News / YouGov exclusive poll
** Tories joint lowest VI share in Parliament
** Reform just ONE point behind
** Lab down 3; LD up 4
LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4),
GRN 8% (+1)
Fieldwork Mon/Tue (around Lib Dem manfiesto coverage)
but did we do this bit
@DrAlanWager
This, plugged into the FT's model (which does not explicitly try to guess at how tactical voters will split), gives the Lib Dems over 100 seats and the Conservative Party 31.
https://x.com/DrAlanWager/status/1800564841352188311
https://ig.ft.com/uk-general-election/2024/projection/
It gives Lab 479, LD 101, Con 31, SNP 16 with those YouGov figures.
Probably the right decision but why take so long to confirm it
ISTR, he announced he'd been adopted as a candidate on here. And only then was I aware of his IRL name. Similar to Rochdale.
Same approach could be applied to Re-join.
FPTP encourages a "what's the best way of kicking the party I don't like?" approach.
That isn't automatically wrong, but it's not always pretty.
It ain't gonna happen so it ain't worth scrutinising closely.
And go to Ukraine if you want magnificent cities and a unique experience (and the odd drone and air raid siren). Lviv and Odessa are world class. Kyiv is fascinating for a few days. Smaller towns like chernivtsi are beguiling, too
That’s life sorted til October when the weather turns. Then you move on to Asia
The sovereign will not be happy about such a massive constitutional change without a manifesto commitment and nor would the Lords.
The Telegraph certainly loves it, especially the right to buy scheme.
Daily Mail has Rishi awarding Aspiration. At last the “A” word Tories should be fighting on.
Maybe we all misjudged what a success this manifesto has been?
It isn't a Constitutional change. It's a voting system change.
Not the same thing. At all.
RISHI: DON'T GIVE LABOUR A BLANK CHEQUE
https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/
https://x.com/stillgray/status/1800628158317867337?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Let alone a blank one.
In the event the Tories are down in 3rd place on seats despite coming 2nd in the vote will they embrace PR?
Headline VI isn’t going to be that important for the Lib Dems anyway, keeping a reasonable share but with better voting efficiency is the key.
I believe it was tried by an Australian party in recent years.
Anyway, it was a very long time ago and she stopped posting soon after leaving the House.
How's you? Keeping the Peril at bay down there in the wilds of Hersham?
Hence why Labour will I expect make more of the difference in where the manifestos fall. Tories give tax cuts for the richest and batter the poor (that does seem to be the case with todays manifesto), Labour will soak the oil barons/hedge funds/non doms etc. In fact they could subtly hint that they will raise taxes on Tories but non Tory voters will be fine. Some might believe it.
Not one I'm party to.
It would only bounce if they wrote a big number on it.
But this is fucking insane. The most important job in the world and the only real candidates are two dribbling old fools. The western world is at a moment of maximum peril and America has a choice between senile hypocrisy and demented villainy. Enough!!!!!
Krishnan Guru-Murthy crucifies Mel Stride on abolishing National Insurance for self employed and on pension
KGM, "You're getting rid of class 4 National Insurance contributions for the self employed"
MS, "Yes"
KGM, "So how do self employed qualify for a state pension?"
MS, "You can still have a system where you have nil rate National Insurance and have that as a contribution to state pension"
KGM, "So self employed people will just get a state pension for free now?"
MS, "Well, they will make their contribution to the economy in the normal way"
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1800623762657640905
I posted exactly this point on free state pension hours ago.
Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside). Long term you won't make it work if you earn such a small amount as no wiggle room for any fluctuation in earnings.
Sadly, they have already stormed the gates...I am but the last remaing but heroically redoubtable survivor.
Phnom Penh is my new favourite city. The restaurants of bassac lane!!
Laos is lovely. Vietnam is dynamic
Rúben Amorim.
Liverpool embarrassed themselves choosing Slot ahead of Amorim. For Man Utd to stick, rather than twist with Amorim is more dumber still.
Amorim and his system is perfect match for a mega club and the quality of players they can provide him.
The Austrians lost everything in the end.
I've done two out of three so no spoilers please.
Of course it is when you Google...
My point is that KGM is trying to make it sound like all these people will get free state pension, the proportion of people running their own businesses for any length of time on less than that will be very small. Other than gig work, nobody runs a one man band business for £30-40k a year, you are better off getting a normal job and something will come along and bust you.
Now is it a stupid policy overall, yes.
Lab 43 (-4)
Con 21 (-2)
Ref 15 (+4)
LD 7 (+1)
Grn 7 (+1)
https://x.com/LordAshcroft/status/1800638670128787571
Pissing on voters while telling them it is raining is an overly stupid strategy
But, that the Tory share is also on the slide.
Not expected.
It's very much MOE. But when MOE is all in the same direction, it begins, after a decent interval, to constitute a pattern.
For Labour to lose the froth from 47 to 43 isn’t so bad. But for Tories to be under 25, each point backwards should be eating into their heartlands, each point worse than Labours froth drop. It is all very curious and unbelievable. Unless seen through a prism where Conservatives see Farage as the best Conservative in the field.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-of-individuals-with-self-employment-sources-2010-to-2011#full-publication-update-history