I read up and their Assembly elections are quite electorally interesting in that they are similar but different to the presidential election.
That is, they are done in 2 rounds, but where a run off is needed, any candidate getting 12.5% of the total electorate, so turnout and vote share dependent, gets in the run off.
It's not front and centre in the write ups of previous elections, but I guess that, differently to the presidential election, there end up being a lot of 3 way (or more) contests in the second round, and the balance of party strengths and the number of 3 ways happening has a big effect on the result -mainly 3(+) ways suits RN better, mainly 2 ways suits Macron. And it looks a pretty 3 way tussle this go.
(Don't know why they don't just go STV on the same constituencies tbh, for this type of contest certainly.)
Is that a fair assessment and has 2-way / 3-way influenced the course of past elections?
(I'm avoiding ribald analogies here)
Three way contests are not very common. To qualify, you need 12.5% of the electorate, and most 3rd placed candidates, who qualify, usually drop out. On current polling, LREM won’t be getting to the second round in most seats, and they will be straight PF v RN fights.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
Think it was charging it to the taxpayer that made the difference tbf.
And lying about it. iPad guy could have got away with it if he had gone shit, mistake, sorry, paid it back, instead we got this ever changing list of excuses.
Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
When do we get to see this interview?
I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say
I wonder what Sunak will say? Perhaps "I have a plan, my plan is working, Starmer has no plan, except increasing taxes for every working person by £2017 every day".
Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.
Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.
There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.
Yes, it's just bonkers. You ignore your opponent with this sort of thing, or say, "Nice to see Ed supporting a charity I've actively supported for many, many years - hope to see him again when there's no election on".
That might be Kevin Foster's Rupert Allison/Restaurant moment of this campaign, Torbay is on a knife edge already.
Except Foster is a rather better constituency MP than Allison was, hence he turned a LD seat when he won it in 2015 to a seat he won with a 35% majority in 2019. He does have something of a point, in the election period most organisations try to remain visibly neutral
Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
When do we get to see this interview?
I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say
Interview is tomorrow at seven.
I've used my photo today on a pretty graph, but the shot of Paul Brand in the publicity is a corker.
Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
When do we get to see this interview?
I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say
I wonder what Sunak will say? Perhaps "I have a plan, my plan is working, Starmer has no plan, except increasing taxes for every working person by £2017 every day".
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
How can you forget Tractor-gate.
More seriously, all the me-too stuff was pretty damaging for some (and forced some really onto the back foot even when they hadn't really done anything wrong) and it keeps popping up every so often making it sound like HoC is a pretty toxic place to work. The recent text-gate stuff is quite damaging as well, that a politician is comprised into giving away numbers to people.
Yes, that went very quiet very quickly. Suspiciously so. Hopefully the secret squirrels will come up with something.
This chart actually shows what the biggest cost will be in the Tory manifesto. As I pointed out on PB last night, the problem with the Tory manifesto is the promised increase in defence spending.
It’s not the policy of increasing defence spending to 2.5% that is the problem - for an interventionist country like ours it seems sound to increase, looking to the unstable international future of the world with more messy collapse of the Russian and US as superpowers, and the rise of EU and China. After/in addition to Ukraine, Putin will invade Moldova, and China not just certain to invade Taiwan, but claim the whole of the South China Sea.
The problem is the one political Party promising to raise defence spending to 2.5% has not realistically explained how they will fund it. In fact, this year, they have gone out of their way to avoid explaining how they will fund it - by-passed putting this increase in defence spending through their last budget* and OBR as urged by senior MPs in their party who, unlike Sunak and Hunt, genuinely care this increase is needed, so needed it funded to be for real. Instead it was delayed to be announced a few weeks later.
This means the Conservative Party has NO policy to increase defence spending to the level seen in this picture, just a gimmick that blows a huge hole into the manifesto below the cost balance waterline. If you cannot say exactly how you are funding this policy without economists laughing straight back into your face, you don’t have a realistic policy, just a gimmicky pledge - a promise not worth the paper it’s written on.
I’ve been pondering defence expenditure. Both big parties want to increase it. Can we somehow get more socioeconomic benefit from it, other than just greater employment in shipyards, military recruitment etc? Obviously we are not going to have the SBS running breakfast clubs in Hackney, but you get my drift (maybe)?
To answer your genuine question, I don’t know very much about defence costings. Other people on the site can give you a very knowledgable answer I suspect.
I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.
I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.
I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
All you need to know is that defence procurement has been broken for years, and we spend the majority of the money on stuff that’s obsolete.
There’s a tiny chance that a new government might change that, and zero chance the current Tories would.
Over-simplistic rubbish. Makes you sound like that idiot Lewis Page.
Over simplistic perhaps, but what’s your counter argument ?
I’d say claiming that defence procurement isn’t broken is also talking rubbish.
Key issues are:
- Political unwillingness to commit to a decision and recognise the cost of delay.
- Politicians wanting to “buy British” but never engaging with the industrial policy implications.
- Inter-service rivalry and a “we must all get a share” attitude.
- Changing requirements driven by Main Building chopping and changing budgets every year.
None of that is the responsibility of those actually DOING the procurement.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Stephen Milligan? Derailed Back 2 Basics almost at birth.
Not just that.
There's a bit in the Brandreth diaries where he describes a first meeting of a "thoughtful new Conservative MP" supper club. Him, Seb Coe, Stephen Milligan and Judith Chaplin.
Of them, two had hopelessly marginal seats and lost in 1997. Milligan died with an orange in his mouth and Chaplin in an emergency operation.
And in part, that's why the Conservatives veered so far to the right after 1997, with the consequences we see around us now.
That's a fascinating story.
Chaplin, particularly. She was seriously talked about as a possible Chancellor.
This is also on point.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/451396.stm … A diary kept by one of Mr Major's closest political aides, Judith Chaplin, quotes him in 1991 as saying about Lady Thatcher: "I want her isolated, I want her destroyed."..
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:
(and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
Sunak’s wife was front and centre of the manifesto launch today.
Pretty rubbish Americanisation of British politics by the Conservative Party and anyone in Labour actually wanting partners and families centre stage in the campaign and in UK politics. We don’t want a First Partner in our system. Didn’t Blair get a poll bounce when he had a baby in office? Madness. 🤮
I think it was Cherie but pretty odious nonetheless.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
Given how much she supposedly despises him, that'd tickle me a little.
If he loses he'll remain in Holyrood. And Ruth Davidson certainly doesnt "supposedly" despise him. Deputised for him at Holyrood and been pretty complementary about his message discipline.
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Except on tonight's Yougov it is Labour voters going LD, hence Labour down now even below Corbyn 2017 levels and Starmer Labour a full 5% below the 43% for Blair's New Labour in 1997.
Tories meanwhile still ahead of Reform even with Yougov
😌 No.
Simply how do you see TV impacting the PV? Nothing?
It was an LLG of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries of TV, even getting Ref TV to get the Tories out. Lib Dem’s will draw TC from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV. Greens won’t get TV and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib Dem 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref to Labour TV, taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV greens don’t get 4 and Lib Dem 14.
I had half a thought seeing Zelensky at the D-Day celebrations - I wonder how much the Ukrainian narrative of WWII is shifting based on Russia being dicks now? Are they retrospectively starting to reframe the Russian role?
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:
(and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
Sunak’s wife was front and centre of the manifesto launch today.
Pretty rubbish Americanisation of British politics by the Conservative Party and anyone in Labour actually wanting partners and families centre stage in the campaign and in UK politics. We don’t want a First Partner in our system. Didn’t Blair get a poll bounce when he had a baby in office? Madness. 🤮
I think it was Cherie but pretty odious nonetheless.
Tony presumably involved at some 5m point during the previous year.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
A Labour government would fix one million extra potholes a year, Sir Keir Starmer has pledged.
The opposition leader said the number of road craters in need of repair across the country was a “plague” as he promised to tackle the issue if elected on July 4.
Contractors filled in just over two million potholes last year but the RAC estimates there are still around a million potholes at any given time as British roads continue to crumble.
---
I thought big part of the issue was there wasn't enough kit / people to do the job. So even when the government threw some money at the problem, they couldn't deployed to really make a dent in the backlog.
This chart actually shows what the biggest cost will be in the Tory manifesto. As I pointed out on PB last night, the problem with the Tory manifesto is the promised increase in defence spending.
It’s not the policy of increasing defence spending to 2.5% that is the problem - for an interventionist country like ours it seems sound to increase, looking to the unstable international future of the world with more messy collapse of the Russian and US as superpowers, and the rise of EU and China. After/in addition to Ukraine, Putin will invade Moldova, and China not just certain to invade Taiwan, but claim the whole of the South China Sea.
The problem is the one political Party promising to raise defence spending to 2.5% has not realistically explained how they will fund it. In fact, this year, they have gone out of their way to avoid explaining how they will fund it - by-passed putting this increase in defence spending through their last budget* and OBR as urged by senior MPs in their party who, unlike Sunak and Hunt, genuinely care this increase is needed, so needed it funded to be for real. Instead it was delayed to be announced a few weeks later.
This means the Conservative Party has NO policy to increase defence spending to the level seen in this picture, just a gimmick that blows a huge hole into the manifesto below the cost balance waterline. If you cannot say exactly how you are funding this policy without economists laughing straight back into your face, you don’t have a realistic policy, just a gimmicky pledge - a promise not worth the paper it’s written on.
I’ve been pondering defence expenditure. Both big parties want to increase it. Can we somehow get more socioeconomic benefit from it, other than just greater employment in shipyards, military recruitment etc? Obviously we are not going to have the SBS running breakfast clubs in Hackney, but you get my drift (maybe)?
To answer your genuine question, I don’t know very much about defence costings. Other people on the site can give you a very knowledgable answer I suspect.
I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.
I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.
I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
All you need to know is that defence procurement has been broken for years, and we spend the majority of the money on stuff that’s obsolete.
There’s a tiny chance that a new government might change that, and zero chance the current Tories would.
Over-simplistic rubbish. Makes you sound like that idiot Lewis Page.
Over simplistic perhaps, but what’s your counter argument ?
I’d say claiming that defence procurement isn’t broken is also talking rubbish.
Key issues are:
- Political unwillingness to commit to a decision and recognise the cost of delay.
- Politicians wanting to “buy British” but never engaging with the industrial policy implications.
- Inter-service rivalry and a “we must all get a share” attitude.
- Changing requirements driven by Main Building chopping and changing budgets every year.
None of that is the responsibility of those actually DOING the procurement.
So you agree the system is broken, then. I don’t disagree with any of that - though it ought also to include an unwillingness to take a hard look at what our defence requirement actually are, and what’s just a desire to hold on to stuff we’ve always had.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Absolutely, or it was his kids watching YouTube, or something...I couldn't keep up with the every changing excuse.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:
(and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
Sunak’s wife was front and centre of the manifesto launch today.
Pretty rubbish Americanisation of British politics by the Conservative Party and anyone in Labour actually wanting partners and families centre stage in the campaign and in UK politics. We don’t want a First Partner in our system. Didn’t Blair get a poll bounce when he had a baby in office? Madness. 🤮
I think it was Cherie but pretty odious nonetheless.
Tony presumably involved at some 5m point during the previous year.
This chart actually shows what the biggest cost will be in the Tory manifesto. As I pointed out on PB last night, the problem with the Tory manifesto is the promised increase in defence spending.
It’s not the policy of increasing defence spending to 2.5% that is the problem - for an interventionist country like ours it seems sound to increase, looking to the unstable international future of the world with more messy collapse of the Russian and US as superpowers, and the rise of EU and China. After/in addition to Ukraine, Putin will invade Moldova, and China not just certain to invade Taiwan, but claim the whole of the South China Sea.
The problem is the one political Party promising to raise defence spending to 2.5% has not realistically explained how they will fund it. In fact, this year, they have gone out of their way to avoid explaining how they will fund it - by-passed putting this increase in defence spending through their last budget* and OBR as urged by senior MPs in their party who, unlike Sunak and Hunt, genuinely care this increase is needed, so needed it funded to be for real. Instead it was delayed to be announced a few weeks later.
This means the Conservative Party has NO policy to increase defence spending to the level seen in this picture, just a gimmick that blows a huge hole into the manifesto below the cost balance waterline. If you cannot say exactly how you are funding this policy without economists laughing straight back into your face, you don’t have a realistic policy, just a gimmicky pledge - a promise not worth the paper it’s written on.
I’ve been pondering defence expenditure. Both big parties want to increase it. Can we somehow get more socioeconomic benefit from it, other than just greater employment in shipyards, military recruitment etc? Obviously we are not going to have the SBS running breakfast clubs in Hackney, but you get my drift (maybe)?
To answer your genuine question, I don’t know very much about defence costings. Other people on the site can give you a very knowledgable answer I suspect.
I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.
I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.
I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
All you need to know is that defence procurement has been broken for years, and we spend the majority of the money on stuff that’s obsolete.
There’s a tiny chance that a new government might change that, and zero chance the current Tories would.
Over-simplistic rubbish. Makes you sound like that idiot Lewis Page.
Over simplistic perhaps, but what’s your counter argument ?
I’d say claiming that defence procurement isn’t broken is also talking rubbish.
Key issues are:
- Political unwillingness to commit to a decision and recognise the cost of delay.
- Politicians wanting to “buy British” but never engaging with the industrial policy implications.
- Inter-service rivalry and a “we must all get a share” attitude.
- Changing requirements driven by Main Building chopping and changing budgets every year.
None of that is the responsibility of those actually DOING the procurement.
So you agree the system is broken, then. I don’t disagree with any of that - though it ought also to include an unwillingness to take a hard look at what our defence requirement actually are, and what’s just a desire to hold on to stuff we’ve always had.
Oh yes if that’s your point I agree. I’m just sensitive to some (which it turns out isn’t you) suggesting the actual people doing the work are idiots and aren’t screaming all this themselves. Oliver Letwin had an idiotic thought about replacing DE&S with 100 commercial lawyers for example.
Edit - something weird happens to very senior officers where they start defending sacred cows in their service like they are a union leader. And the civil service fails to use its position to challenge.
Anecdote demonstrating the clueleseness of some voters:
30 year old spouse of one of my colleagues: "So we get to vote for who we want as Prime Minister?"
In reality, that is how a lot of people actually vote. It is why although there is tactical voting, I don't think it is ever quite a significant as some like to make out.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
Any of 'that' type of story probably comes out this weekend to try and spike the manifestos and early postals. I think we are, as a society, beyond where what he suggests the story is being an influence however. It would look, and is, desperate
Haven’t seen any of this. 70s style implication someone is gay or has an illegitimate child? Yeah, no one cares unless someone was genuinely harmed in the latter case.
For some reason I am reminded of an attempt to “out” a Tory cabinet minister. Alan Duncan. The left wing activists in question were quite distraught to discover that he was openly gay.
A Labour government would fix one million extra potholes a year, Sir Keir Starmer has pledged.
The opposition leader said the number of road craters in need of repair across the country was a “plague” as he promised to tackle the issue if elected on July 4.
Contractors filled in just over two million potholes last year but the RAC estimates there are still around a million potholes at any given time as British roads continue to crumble.
---
I thought big part of the issue was there wasn't enough kit / people to do the job. So even when the government threw some money at the problem, they couldn't deployed to really make a dent in the backlog.
The main road into Llandudno along the promenade is shocking with patched potholes everywhere and of course the council has warning notices that the road has temporary repairs, but what is really needed is the complete resurfacing of the road
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Except on tonight's Yougov it is Labour voters going LD, hence Labour down now even below Corbyn 2017 levels and Starmer Labour a full 5% below the 43% for Blair's New Labour in 1997.
Tories meanwhile still ahead of Reform even with Yougov
The glories of FPTP - which I have always opposed - mean that on today's YouGov, the LibDems would be the official opposition to a Labour party with a 200 plus seat majority. A Tory party engaged in intense civil war after a GE defeat may not be the most effective opposition, so perhaps it is best for everyone if the LibDems do the job.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:
(and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
Sunak’s wife was front and centre of the manifesto launch today.
Pretty rubbish Americanisation of British politics by the Conservative Party and anyone in Labour actually wanting partners and families centre stage in the campaign and in UK politics. We don’t want a First Partner in our system. Didn’t Blair get a poll bounce when he had a baby in office? Madness. 🤮
I think it was Cherie but pretty odious nonetheless.
Tony presumably involved at some 5m point during the previous year.
Two former directors of BHS have been ordered to pay at least £18m to creditors over their role in the collapse of the retailer eight years ago.
A court found Lennart Henningson and Dominic Chandler liable for wrongful trading, misfeasance trading and misfeasance over their management of the High Street chain.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
As ever, it’s the lies and attempted cover up that do the damage.
If he’d paid the bill himself, straight off, no one would have cared. He could have even got some sympathy for getting stung with data charges like that.
Note: I’ve heard from several people who racked up 3 digit bills by accident that a letter or 2 to the provider often gets a massive discount on the debt.
A Labour government would fix one million extra potholes a year, Sir Keir Starmer has pledged.
The opposition leader said the number of road craters in need of repair across the country was a “plague” as he promised to tackle the issue if elected on July 4.
Contractors filled in just over two million potholes last year but the RAC estimates there are still around a million potholes at any given time as British roads continue to crumble.
---
I thought big part of the issue was there wasn't enough kit / people to do the job. So even when the government threw some money at the problem, they couldn't deployed to really make a dent in the backlog.
The main road into Llandudno along the promenade is shocking with patched potholes everywhere and of course the council has warning notices that the road has temporary repairs, but what is really needed is the complete resurfacing of the road
Temporary potholes repair is a sticking plaster
My advice is if the road has a lot of potholes, drive nice and slow. Say, maximum 20mph.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:
(and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
Sunak’s wife was front and centre of the manifesto launch today.
Pretty rubbish Americanisation of British politics by the Conservative Party and anyone in Labour actually wanting partners and families centre stage in the campaign and in UK politics. We don’t want a First Partner in our system. Didn’t Blair get a poll bounce when he had a baby in office? Madness. 🤮
I think Keir Starmer's wife has a full time job, like many women in this country, so she's probably doing that instead of hanging about at media opportunities.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Don't understand. Whether you are watching fitba or The Sound of Music or extreme torture porn it still makes sense to do it over WiFi or a decent roaming package. Unless there's a way of getting Onlyfans artistes to do really filthy stuff in exchange for an extra grand on the 4g bill?
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Absolutely, or it was his kids watching YouTube, or something...I couldn't keep up with the every changing excuse.
Here’s a true story, as we are past the lagershed
I was once in a Luxor hotel researching some ancient flints and I got bored and lonely in my hotel room. I had an iPad with me - probably iPad 1 it was so early - and I realised I had a wavering bit of signal. Just enough to watch porn. Proto 3G?
But massively expensive. £29 for 3MB etc
I warned myself - right, 2 minutes, Kleenex, finished
About five hours later I energetically culminated and looked in horror at my data usage. Gigabytes on gigabytes. I realised I’d probably spent £5k or £10k on a single wank
And this was before the days of my affluence
No way I could pay a £10k phone bill so the next day I concocted a plan. I decided to go to the police and report that my iPad had been stolen. So I’d have a get-out when Vodafone came asking for their £10,000
I went into the Luxor police station and reported my iPad was stolen but as soon as I began making my report I realised this didn’t make sense - how and where was it stolen? Just that? In my hotel room? - and if they got suspicious they might find I still had my iPad…. so I changed my story to “I loaned my iPad to a dubious person and I think they might have misused it while I was asleep” and at this point the Egyptian policeman was essentially laughing in my face and asking his colleagues to come and listen to the most insane load of bullshit ever heard in the Upper Nile so I pretended I felt suddenly unwell and fled back to my hotel with this bankrupting wank-bill looming
When I got back to England my monthly Vodafone bill arrived. £32. For some reason my MASSIVE DATA USAGE never registered
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:
(and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
Sunak’s wife was front and centre of the manifesto launch today.
Pretty rubbish Americanisation of British politics by the Conservative Party and anyone in Labour actually wanting partners and families centre stage in the campaign and in UK politics. We don’t want a First Partner in our system. Didn’t Blair get a poll bounce when he had a baby in office? Madness. 🤮
I think Keir Starmer's wife has a full time job, like many women in this country, so she's probably doing that instead of hanging about at media opportunities.
I suspect that sewer rat Staines has nothing, but it would be hilarious if his attempt at smearing Starmer made him seem more interesting and therefore raised his popularity.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Absolutely, or it was his kids watching YouTube, or something...I couldn't keep up with the every changing excuse.
Here’s a true story, as we are past the lagershed
I was once in a Luxor hotel researching some ancient flints and I got bored and lonely in my hotel room. I had an iPad with me - probably iPad 1 it was so early - and I realised I had a wavering bit of signal. Just enough to watch porn. Proto 3G?
But massively expensive. £29 for 3MB etc
I warned myself - right, 2 minutes, Kleenex, finished
About five hours later I energetically culminated and looked in horror at my data usage. Gigabytes on gigabytes. I realised I’d probably spent £5k or £10k on a single wank
And this was before the days of my affluence
No way I could pay a £10k phone bill so the next day I concocted a plan. I decided to go to the police and report that my iPad had been stolen. So I’d have a get-out when Vodafone came asking for their £10,000
I went into the Luxor police station and reported my iPad was stolen but as soon as I began making my report I realised this didn’t make sense - how and where was it stolen? Just that? In my hotel room? - and if they got suspicious they might find I still had my iPad…. so I changed my story to “I loaned my iPad to a dubious person and I think they might have misused it while I was asleep” and at this point the Egyptian policeman was essentially laughing in my face and asking his colleagues to come and listen to the most insane load of bullshit ever heard in the Upper Nile so I pretended I felt suddenly unwell and fled back to my hotel with this bankrupting wank-bill looming
When I got back to England my monthly Vodafone bill arrived. £32. For some reason my MASSIVE DATA USAGE never registered
Thank Christ you've already used your daily PB photo allowance.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Absolutely, or it was his kids watching YouTube, or something...I couldn't keep up with the every changing excuse.
Here’s a true story, as we are past the lagershed
I was once in a Luxor hotel researching some ancient flints and I got bored and lonely in my hotel room. I had an iPad with me - probably iPad 1 it was so early - and I realised I had a wavering bit of signal. Just enough to watch porn. Proto 3G?
But massively expensive. £29 for 3MB etc
I warned myself - right, 2 minutes, Kleenex, finished
About five hours later I energetically culminated and looked in horror at my data usage. Gigabytes on gigabytes. I realised I’d probably spent £5k or £10k on a single wank
And this was before the days of my affluence
No way I could pay a £10k phone bill so the next day I concocted a plan. I decided to go to the police and report that my iPad had been stolen. So I’d have a get-out when Vodafone came asking for their £10,000
I went into the Luxor police station and reported my iPad was stolen but as soon as I began making my report I realised this didn’t make sense - how and where was it stolen? Just that? In my hotel room? - and if they got suspicious they might find I still had my iPad…. so I changed my story to “I loaned my iPad to a dubious person and I think they might have misused it while I was asleep” and at this point the Egyptian policeman was essentially laughing in my face and asking his colleagues to come and listen to the most insane load of bullshit ever heard in the Upper Nile so I pretended I felt suddenly unwell and fled back to my hotel with this bankrupting wank-bill looming
When I got back to England my monthly Vodafone bill arrived. £32. For some reason my MASSIVE DATA USAGE never registered
Say what you like about Mubarak’s police state and the crimes committed against his own people: his telecoms policy let you enjoy a crafty one.
Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.
Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.
There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.
Kevin Foster is an idiot. And now, the plank has walked because of Davey locking up the sailors' vote.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Absolutely, or it was his kids watching YouTube, or something...I couldn't keep up with the every changing excuse.
Here’s a true story, as we are past the lagershed
I was once in a Luxor hotel researching some ancient flints and I got bored and lonely in my hotel room. I had an iPad with me - probably iPad 1 it was so early - and I realised I had a wavering bit of signal. Just enough to watch porn. Proto 3G?
But massively expensive. £29 for 3MB etc
I warned myself - right, 2 minutes, Kleenex, finished
About five hours later I energetically culminated and looked in horror at my data usage. Gigabytes on gigabytes. I realised I’d probably spent £5k or £10k on a single wank
And this was before the days of my affluence
No way I could pay a £10k phone bill so the next day I concocted a plan. I decided to go to the police and report that my iPad had been stolen. So I’d have a get-out when Vodafone came asking for their £10,000
I went into the Luxor police station and reported my iPad was stolen but as soon as I began making my report I realised this didn’t make sense - how and where was it stolen? Just that? In my hotel room? - and if they got suspicious they might find I still had my iPad…. so I changed my story to “I loaned my iPad to a dubious person and I think they might have misused it while I was asleep” and at this point the Egyptian policeman was essentially laughing in my face and asking his colleagues to come and listen to the most insane load of bullshit ever heard in the Upper Nile so I pretended I felt suddenly unwell and fled back to my hotel with this bankrupting wank-bill looming
When I got back to England my monthly Vodafone bill arrived. £32. For some reason my MASSIVE DATA USAGE never registered
Yes but that was in the pioneering days. We were frontiersmen then. Nowadays both my 95 year old aunt and my 3 year old great niece know to get the WiFi password or a data package from airalo.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Absolutely, or it was his kids watching YouTube, or something...I couldn't keep up with the every changing excuse.
Here’s a true story, as we are past the lagershed
I was once in a Luxor hotel researching some ancient flints and I got bored and lonely in my hotel room. I had an iPad with me - probably iPad 1 it was so early - and I realised I had a wavering bit of signal. Just enough to watch porn. Proto 3G?
But massively expensive. £29 for 3MB etc
I warned myself - right, 2 minutes, Kleenex, finished
About five hours later I energetically culminated and looked in horror at my data usage. Gigabytes on gigabytes. I realised I’d probably spent £5k or £10k on a single wank
And this was before the days of my affluence
No way I could pay a £10k phone bill so the next day I concocted a plan. I decided to go to the police and report that my iPad had been stolen. So I’d have a get-out when Vodafone came asking for their £10,000
I went into the Luxor police station and reported my iPad was stolen but as soon as I began making my report I realised this didn’t make sense - how and where was it stolen? Just that? In my hotel room? - and if they got suspicious they might find I still had my iPad…. so I changed my story to “I loaned my iPad to a dubious person and I think they might have misused it while I was asleep” and at this point the Egyptian policeman was essentially laughing in my face and asking his colleagues to come and listen to the most insane load of bullshit ever heard in the Upper Nile so I pretended I felt suddenly unwell and fled back to my hotel with this bankrupting wank-bill looming
When I got back to England my monthly Vodafone bill arrived. £32. For some reason my MASSIVE DATA USAGE never registered
FT going nice and gentle are Sunak’s manifesto as big Front Page splash. I thought they would have focused more harshly on the dodgy revenue schemes. Perhaps they would have done if he was 20 points ahead?
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Except on tonight's Yougov it is Labour voters going LD, hence Labour down now even below Corbyn 2017 levels and Starmer Labour a full 5% below the 43% for Blair's New Labour in 1997.
Tories meanwhile still ahead of Reform even with Yougov
😌 No.
Simply how do you see TV impacting the PV? Nothing?
It was an LLG of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries of TV, even getting Ref TV to get the Tories out. Lib Dem’s will draw TC from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV. Greens won’t get TV and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib Dem 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref to Labour TV, taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV greens don’t get 4 and Lib Dem 14.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Anecdote demonstrating the clueleseness of some voters:
30 year old spouse of one of my colleagues: "So we get to vote for who we want as Prime Minister?"
I remember speaking to a guy who voted Leave. He said he didn't want to leave the EU but felt safe to stick two fingers up to Cameron because, he was in a strong Remain constituency, so his vote wouldn't count.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
I was looking forward to Casino_Royale becoming the new Tory MP for Bootle.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Neil Henderson @hendopolis · 7m I: Labour promises £12 an hour to care workers #TomorrowsPapersToday
Minimum wage is already £11.50. Given most companies pay a tad above in order to advertise we pay more than minimum, I presume £12/hr is already quite normal.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
If you've never travelled for more than a couple of weeks, bugger off now for a couple of months and see if it palls. £1500 all in per month doable short haul if you pick the right places - airbnb places often have low monthly rates, so it pays not to move too often. Of course you have picked the wrong time of year, price-wise, for the wanderlust.
Been thinking that there’s something that is concerning me about the polling in advance of this election. We are getting so many polls and seat projections that suggest a near obliteration for the Tories, with Labour on insane majorities. If there’s a reasonable size polling error, particularly in respect of the Tory/Reform split then the exit poll and general election outcome will be in a more usual type pattern. Labour will still have a chunky majority but the Tories could have a creditable number of seats.
If that occurs could we see a scenario where people actively distrust the outcome. I’d hate a situation where a vocal minority challenged the outcome of an election on the basis that it was out of line with the polls. In essence I guess my concern is that the political discourse has become so obsessed with polls that if there’s a polling backfire this time, not impossible given the scale of movement, instead of doing the correct thing and criticising the polling we could see people criticising the election. That would be awful, but you couldn’t rule out Trumpier types falling into that type of behaviour.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
British weather is now unacceptable
You can seriously have a blast wandering the world. I am. Take Ukraine. Ok there’s a war on but if you’re careful it’s not THAT dangerous - it is also a lot more interesting than sitting at home in a bed sit in Balham. Or Bootle
Everything is insanely cheap. I just had a really good Italian meal - two large aperol spritz, inventive bruschetta, seafood fettuccine, glass of good white, at a restaurant in the most fashionable bit of Odessa - beautiful Odessa - £15
If you want good borscht and beer you can eat really well for £5. A bus from Kyiv to Odessa - £13
And thanks to our digital world you can stay in touch with everyone. I had a long WhatsApp chat with my brother in Peru then a group chat with friends and now I’m hanging out on PB
You no longer need to be anywhere in particular. If you can work from home you can work on the road where food is cheap, the sun shines, you see endlessly interesting things, and tax is zero
Anecdote demonstrating the clueleseness of some voters:
30 year old spouse of one of my colleagues: "So we get to vote for who we want as Prime Minister?"
I remember speaking to a guy who voted Leave. He said he didn't want to leave the EU but felt safe to stick two fingers up to Cameron because, he was in a strong Remain constituency, so his vote wouldn't count.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Chris Huhne's adultery.
He eventually had to resign from the cabinet and ended up in prison.
Blaming the shagging for Chris Huhne's demise is like blaming the broken laptop for Gary Glitter's.
He's either a wind-up merchant or stark raving bonkers. Which is it?
He’s been on the Plato trajectory for quite a while.
But with more holiday snaps.
What happened to Plato?
It was reported a few years ago that she'd sadly passed away in about 2017 or thereabouts. She was the most prolific poster on the site for many years, and won poster of the year a couple of times IIRC.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Are we forgetting NPXMP so soon?
Gosh. What an oversight! Profound apologies to Broxtowe's finest ever MP!
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
Widely rumoured to be a reasonably senior Labour figure who regularly posted many years ago.
I believe the low wage commission already released projection that would result in their recommendation for minimum wage to be uplifted to £12/hr next year in order to keep in line with the factor they used.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
I believe the story is about children, kittens, half a jar of peanut butter and a 1972 Austin Allegra.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
If you've never travelled for more than a couple of weeks, bugger off now for a couple of months and see if it palls. £1500 all in per month doable short haul if you pick the right places - airbnb places often have low monthly rates, so it pays not to move too often. Of course you have picked the wrong time of year, price-wise, for the wanderlust.
Not true. You can do Eastern Europe and it’s cheap away from the Med. And often lovely
I believe the low wage commission already released projection that they will recommend minimum wage to be uplifted to £12/hr next year.
Having reconsidered my initial reaction, saying care workers will get £12 and hour is actually a canny move.
Its like Labour and Tories have changed place. That was a classic Osborne type move, pre-announce an increase that was going to be recommended anyway....where as the Tories are like a shopping trolley with dodgy wheels and all over the place with nonsense policies that don't hold up to more than a minute thought.
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Except on tonight's Yougov it is Labour voters going LD, hence Labour down now even below Corbyn 2017 levels and Starmer Labour a full 5% below the 43% for Blair's New Labour in 1997.
Tories meanwhile still ahead of Reform even with Yougov
😌 No.
Simply how do you see TV impacting the PV? Nothing?
It was an LLG of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries of TV, even getting Ref TV to get the Tories out. Lib Dem’s will draw TC from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV. Greens won’t get TV and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib Dem 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref to Labour TV, taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV greens don’t get 4 and Lib Dem 14.
Anyone else understand this? No? Me neither.
Allow me
Simply how do you see TV [tricuspid valve] impacting the PV [pole vault]? Nothing?
It was an LLG [lymphoma low grade] of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries [beneficiaries] of TV [tunnel vision], even getting Ref [reflux] TV [turkey vulture] to get the Tories out. Lib [library] Dem [demand]’s will draw TC [tai chi] from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV [peripheral vision]. Greens won’t get TV [tidal volume] and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib [Libra] Dem [demon] 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref [refractory] to Labour TV [Treaty of Versailles], taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV [transitive verb] greens don’t get 4 and Lib [Liberal] Dem [Democrats] 14.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
We refill the coal bunker at the start of May, so it’s there where we need it in September. This year we’re just working through it. In June. FFS.
Like the old days. The mid 20th C averages for June are pretty chilly: maxed of 17-18C in Central England, mins around 10. It’s colder than that now but not much.
Of course cold mid Junes aren’t necessarily a harbinger of a bad summer. As well as the famous June snow of 1975 there was the coldest first 2 weeks of June for decades in 1995, the Gen X answer to 1976.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?
Absolutely, or it was his kids watching YouTube, or something...I couldn't keep up with the every changing excuse.
Here’s a true story, as we are past the lagershed
I was once in a Luxor hotel researching some ancient flints and I got bored and lonely in my hotel room. I had an iPad with me - probably iPad 1 it was so early - and I realised I had a wavering bit of signal. Just enough to watch porn. Proto 3G?
But massively expensive. £29 for 3MB etc
I warned myself - right, 2 minutes, Kleenex, finished
About five hours later I energetically culminated and looked in horror at my data usage. Gigabytes on gigabytes. I realised I’d probably spent £5k or £10k on a single wank
And this was before the days of my affluence
No way I could pay a £10k phone bill so the next day I concocted a plan. I decided to go to the police and report that my iPad had been stolen. So I’d have a get-out when Vodafone came asking for their £10,000
I went into the Luxor police station and reported my iPad was stolen but as soon as I began making my report I realised this didn’t make sense - how and where was it stolen? Just that? In my hotel room? - and if they got suspicious they might find I still had my iPad…. so I changed my story to “I loaned my iPad to a dubious person and I think they might have misused it while I was asleep” and at this point the Egyptian policeman was essentially laughing in my face and asking his colleagues to come and listen to the most insane load of bullshit ever heard in the Upper Nile so I pretended I felt suddenly unwell and fled back to my hotel with this bankrupting wank-bill looming
When I got back to England my monthly Vodafone bill arrived. £32. For some reason my MASSIVE DATA USAGE never registered
This slightly reminds me of a book I once read called "Millions of Women are Waiting to Meet You". (Don't have it now because it was downloaded onto a Kindle that broke down a few years ago).
I believe the low wage commission already released projection that they will recommend minimum wage to be uplifted to £12/hr next year.
Having reconsidered my initial reaction, saying care workers will get £12 and hour is actually a canny move.
Its like Labour and Tories have changed place. That was a classic Osborne type move, pre-announce an increase that was going to be recommended anyway....where as the Tories are like a shopping trolley with dodgy wheels and all over the place with nonsense policies that don't hold up to more than a minute thought.
But... what is the actual detail of Lab policy here. We await manifesto. The i are reporting what was already known that social care will be the first sector with some kind of new national wage bargaining structure with union involvement.
I can't see how that delivers just £12 a hour if the minimum wage is...erm... going up to £12 an hour.
The whole point is to make care work at least a little bit better than Amazon warehouse.
Been thinking that there’s something that is concerning me about the polling in advance of this election. We are getting so many polls and seat projections that suggest a near obliteration for the Tories, with Labour on insane majorities. If there’s a reasonable size polling error, particularly in respect of the Tory/Reform split then the exit poll and general election outcome will be in a more usual type pattern. Labour will still have a chunky majority but the Tories could have a creditable number of seats.
If that occurs could we see a scenario where people actively distrust the outcome. I’d hate a situation where a vocal minority challenged the outcome of an election on the basis that it was out of line with the polls. In essence I guess my concern is that the political discourse has become so obsessed with polls that if there’s a polling backfire this time, not impossible given the scale of movement, instead of doing the correct thing and criticising the polling we could see people criticising the election. That would be awful, but you couldn’t rule out Trumpier types falling into that type of behaviour.
A lot of the pollsters are actively looking for ways to suppress the Labour vote and to identify shy Tories - YouGov did it last week, I think More in Common are also about to do it. Opinium and JLB already do it. Even so, it's very hard to believe that the final result will look like the polls, as we are looking at numbers that are unprecedented in our lifetimes. But what we do know is that the local elections in May and all recent by-elections are bearing out what the polls are finding - a huge anti-Tory mood in the country. However, because of FPTP and the fact we essentially have 650 mini elections on 4th July, seat projections are really tough. Results within poll margin of errors could produce significant variations in final seat tallies. It is going to be fascinating to watch.
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Except on tonight's Yougov it is Labour voters going LD, hence Labour down now even below Corbyn 2017 levels and Starmer Labour a full 5% below the 43% for Blair's New Labour in 1997.
Tories meanwhile still ahead of Reform even with Yougov
😌 No.
Simply how do you see TV impacting the PV? Nothing?
It was an LLG of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries of TV, even getting Ref TV to get the Tories out. Lib Dem’s will draw TC from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV. Greens won’t get TV and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib Dem 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref to Labour TV, taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV greens don’t get 4 and Lib Dem 14.
Anyone else understand this? No? Me neither.
Allow me
Simply how do you see TV [tricuspid valve] impacting the PV [pole vault]? Nothing?
It was an LLG [lymphoma low grade] of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries [beneficiaries] of TV [tunnel vision], even getting Ref [reflux] TV [turkey vulture] to get the Tories out. Lib [library] Dem [demand]’s will draw TC [tai chi] from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV [peripheral vision]. Greens won’t get TV [tidal volume] and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib [Libra] Dem [demon] 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref [refractory] to Labour TV [Treaty of Versailles], taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV [transitive verb] greens don’t get 4 and Lib [Liberal] Dem [Democrats] 14.
I believe the low wage commission already released projection that they will recommend minimum wage to be uplifted to £12/hr next year.
Having reconsidered my initial reaction, saying care workers will get £12 and hour is actually a canny move.
Its like Labour and Tories have changed place. That was a classic Osborne type move, pre-announce an increase that was going to be recommended anyway....where as the Tories are like a shopping trolley with dodgy wheels and all over the place with nonsense policies that don't hold up to more than a minute thought.
But... what is the actual detail of Lab policy here. We await manifesto. The i are reporting what was already known that social care will be the first sector with some kind of new national wage bargaining structure with union involvement.
I can't see how that delivers just £12 a hour if the minimum wage is...erm... going up to £12 an hour.
The whole point is to make care work at least a little bit better than Amazon warehouse.
The voluntary living wage is I believe £12/hr. I believe Amazon pay roughly that (for over 21s) and more for nights.
It might be Labour are going to say £12/hr for everybody, regardless of age. That would be quite revolutionary if Labour did away with the age differences. Not sure it would be great for 16 year olds looking for their first job or part time job.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!
Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson. Snowflake will be back.
Who's Snowflake?
She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.
Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.
That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.
Been thinking that there’s something that is concerning me about the polling in advance of this election. We are getting so many polls and seat projections that suggest a near obliteration for the Tories, with Labour on insane majorities. If there’s a reasonable size polling error, particularly in respect of the Tory/Reform split then the exit poll and general election outcome will be in a more usual type pattern. Labour will still have a chunky majority but the Tories could have a creditable number of seats.
If that occurs could we see a scenario where people actively distrust the outcome. I’d hate a situation where a vocal minority challenged the outcome of an election on the basis that it was out of line with the polls. In essence I guess my concern is that the political discourse has become so obsessed with polls that if there’s a polling backfire this time, not impossible given the scale of movement, instead of doing the correct thing and criticising the polling we could see people criticising the election. That would be awful, but you couldn’t rule out Trumpier types falling into that type of behaviour.
A lot of the pollsters are actively looking for ways to suppress the Labour vote and to identify shy Tories - YouGov did it last week, I think More in Common are also about to do it. Opinium and JLB already do it. Even so, it's very hard to believe that the final result will look like the polls, as we are looking at numbers that are unprecedented in our lifetimes. But what we do know is that the local elections in May and all recent by-elections are bearing out what the polls are finding - a huge anti-Tory mood in the country. However, because of FPTP and the fact we essentially have 650 mini elections on 4th July, seat projections are really tough. Results within poll margin of errors could produce significant variations in final seat tallies. It is going to be fascinating to watch.
The polls will definitely be out, because a chunk of voters will say "reform" in an opinion poll but then find there is no reform candidate where they vote. Or are the opinion polls now taking that into account?
FT going nice and gentle are Sunak’s manifesto as big Front Page splash. I thought they would have focused more harshly on the dodgy revenue schemes. Perhaps they would have done if he was 20 points ahead?
The “I” has gone gentle on Sunak’s Manifesto too. Tories getting away with all that dodgy maths.
Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.
I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated
I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
We refill the coal bunker at the start of May, so it’s there where we need it in September. This year we’re just working through it. In June. FFS.
Like the old days. The mid 20th C averages for June are pretty chilly: maxed of 17-18C in Central England, mins around 10. It’s colder than that now but not much.
Of course cold mid Junes aren’t necessarily a harbinger of a bad summer. As well as the famous June snow of 1975 there was the coldest first 2 weeks of June for decades in 1995, the Gen X answer to 1976.
My memory of June generally is that it is often cold the first part and then summer kicks in. No idea if this matches te records.
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
Except on tonight's Yougov it is Labour voters going LD, hence Labour down now even below Corbyn 2017 levels and Starmer Labour a full 5% below the 43% for Blair's New Labour in 1997.
Tories meanwhile still ahead of Reform even with Yougov
😌 No.
Simply how do you see TV impacting the PV? Nothing?
It was an LLG of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries of TV, even getting Ref TV to get the Tories out. Lib Dem’s will draw TC from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV. Greens won’t get TV and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib Dem 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref to Labour TV, taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV greens don’t get 4 and Lib Dem 14.
Anyone else understand this? No? Me neither.
Allow me
Simply how do you see TV [tricuspid valve] impacting the PV [pole vault]? Nothing?
It was an LLG [lymphoma low grade] of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries [beneficiaries] of TV [tunnel vision], even getting Ref [reflux] TV [turkey vulture] to get the Tories out. Lib [library] Dem [demand]’s will draw TC [tai chi] from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV [peripheral vision]. Greens won’t get TV [tidal volume] and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib [Libra] Dem [demon] 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref [refractory] to Labour TV [Treaty of Versailles], taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV [transitive verb] greens don’t get 4 and Lib [Liberal] Dem [Democrats] 14.
Ah, thanks - all makes perfect sense now.
You bastards.
Honestly MoonRabbit, I didn't understand your post. I wanted to - I'm interested in what you have to say - but it made no sense to me at all. Sorry.
Comments
I've used my photo today on a pretty graph, but the shot of Paul Brand in the publicity is a corker.
https://twitter.com/ITVTonight/status/1800581074226905272
Lab 58 (+20), Ref 23 (-3), Con 10 (-19), LD 6 (+2), Green 2 (-2)
Con vote as flaccid as that huge inflatable Boris nowadays
- Political unwillingness to commit to a decision and recognise the cost of delay.
- Politicians wanting to “buy British” but never engaging with the industrial policy implications.
- Inter-service rivalry and a “we must all get a share” attitude.
- Changing requirements driven by Main Building chopping and changing budgets every year.
None of that is the responsibility of those actually DOING the procurement.
She was seriously talked about as a possible Chancellor.
This is also on point.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/451396.stm
… A diary kept by one of Mr Major's closest political aides, Judith Chaplin, quotes him in 1991 as saying about Lady Thatcher: "I want her isolated, I want her destroyed."..
Simply how do you see TV impacting the PV? Nothing?
It was an LLG of 61. Labour will be biggest benefliciaries of TV, even getting Ref TV to get the Tories out. Lib Dem’s will draw TC from Greens and Labour, perhaps up to 16% PV. Greens won’t get TV and will be squeezed.
So green 4 Lib Dem 14 Labour 43 = 61. And that’s even no Ref to Labour TV, taking Labour above 43, even higher still if you think after TV greens don’t get 4 and Lib Dem 14.
https://x.com/scotlibdems/status/1800619274244870612?s=46
Sir Ed Davey takes questions while on the spinning tea cups at the fun-fair.
Just another day in the 2024 election campaign
The opposition leader said the number of road craters in need of repair across the country was a “plague” as he promised to tackle the issue if elected on July 4.
Contractors filled in just over two million potholes last year but the RAC estimates there are still around a million potholes at any given time as British roads continue to crumble.
---
I thought big part of the issue was there wasn't enough kit / people to do the job. So even when the government threw some money at the problem, they couldn't deployed to really make a dent in the backlog.
I don’t disagree with any of that - though it ought also to include an unwillingness to take a hard look at what our defence requirement actually are, and what’s just a desire to hold on to stuff we’ve always had.
30 year old spouse of one of my colleagues: "So we get to vote for who we want as Prime Minister?"
Edit - something weird happens to very senior officers where they start defending sacred cows in their service like they are a union leader. And the civil service fails to use its position to challenge.
Temporary potholes repair is a sticking plaster
What is the answer?
FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.
A court found Lennart Henningson and Dominic Chandler liable for wrongful trading, misfeasance trading and misfeasance over their management of the High Street chain.
If he’d paid the bill himself, straight off, no one would have cared. He could have even got some sympathy for getting stung with data charges like that.
Note: I’ve heard from several people who racked up 3 digit bills by accident that a letter or 2 to the provider often gets a massive discount on the debt.
I didn’t realise where it was going.
I was once in a Luxor hotel researching some ancient flints and I got bored and lonely in my hotel room. I had an iPad with me - probably iPad 1 it was so early - and I realised I had a wavering bit of signal. Just enough to watch porn. Proto 3G?
But massively expensive. £29 for 3MB etc
I warned myself - right, 2 minutes, Kleenex, finished
About five hours later I energetically culminated and looked in horror at my data usage. Gigabytes on gigabytes. I realised I’d probably spent £5k or £10k on a single wank
And this was before the days of my affluence
No way I could pay a £10k phone bill so the next day I concocted a plan. I decided to go to the police and report that my iPad had been stolen. So I’d have a get-out when Vodafone came asking for their £10,000
I went into the Luxor police station and reported my iPad was stolen but as soon as I began making my report I realised this didn’t make sense - how and where was it stolen? Just that? In my hotel room? - and if they got suspicious they might find I still had my iPad…. so I changed my story to “I loaned my iPad to a dubious person and I think they might have misused it while I was asleep” and at this point the Egyptian policeman was essentially laughing in my face and asking his colleagues to come and listen to the most insane load of bullshit ever heard in the Upper Nile so I pretended I felt suddenly unwell and fled back to my hotel with this bankrupting wank-bill looming
When I got back to England my monthly Vodafone bill arrived. £32. For some reason my MASSIVE DATA USAGE never registered
https://x.com/barakravid/status/1800622590006116662
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/11/hamas-leader-leaked-civilian-deaths-necessary-israel-sinwar/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/11/west-midlands-becomes-knife-crime-capital-of-uk/
It seems very low priority on the GE campaign.
Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.
I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.
Snowflake will be back.
Work that one out.
Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
·
7m
I: Labour promises £12 an hour to care workers #TomorrowsPapersToday
But, then, almost all his political decisions have been fucking stupid.
If that occurs could we see a scenario where people actively distrust the outcome. I’d hate a situation where a vocal minority challenged the outcome of an election on the basis that it was out of line with the polls. In essence I guess my concern is that the political discourse has become so obsessed with polls that if there’s a polling backfire this time, not impossible given the scale of movement, instead of doing the correct thing and criticising the polling we could see people criticising the election. That would be awful, but you couldn’t rule out Trumpier types falling into that type of behaviour.
It was excellent
You can seriously have a blast wandering the world. I am. Take Ukraine. Ok there’s a war on but if you’re careful it’s not THAT dangerous - it is also a lot more interesting than sitting at home in a bed sit in Balham. Or Bootle
Everything is insanely cheap. I just had a really good Italian meal - two large aperol spritz, inventive bruschetta, seafood fettuccine, glass of good white, at a restaurant in the most fashionable bit of Odessa - beautiful Odessa - £15
If you want good borscht and beer you can eat really well for £5. A bus from Kyiv to Odessa - £13
And thanks to our digital world you can stay in touch with everyone. I had a long WhatsApp chat with my brother in Peru then a group chat with friends and now I’m hanging out on PB
You no longer need to be anywhere in particular. If you can work from home you can work on the road where food is cheap, the sun shines, you see endlessly interesting things, and tax is zero
Profound apologies to Broxtowe's finest ever MP!
Of course cold mid Junes aren’t necessarily a harbinger of a bad summer. As well as the famous June snow of 1975 there was the coldest first 2 weeks of June for decades in 1995, the Gen X answer to 1976.
I can't see how that delivers just £12 a hour if the minimum wage is...erm... going up to £12 an hour.
The whole point is to make care work at least a little bit better than Amazon warehouse.
Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.
It might be Labour are going to say £12/hr for everybody, regardless of age. That would be quite revolutionary if Labour did away with the age differences. Not sure it would be great for 16 year olds looking for their first job or part time job.
Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.
Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.
Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.