I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
For what it's worth, the stupid stunts of Davey put me off.
Yeah, you got some media attention. For being a berk.
It's a shame the Yorkshire Party want to slice England into bits, otherwise I might well be voting that way. As it is, I'm not sure. Not voting Reform, or Lib Dem, or Labour. Or Conservative. Or Green.
I might not have an option I want to back on the ballot paper.
*checks*
Ah, there is another option! Oh. It's the SDP.
Now, the question is: how do I deface my voting slip? Or do I actually vote Lib Dem? Or give the Conservatives a pity vote? The agony of choice.
Many of us have stories of "My 60+ relative(s) who vote Tory every election, including in 1997, but are fuming right now" - I think Partygate etc really annoyed this group of people most of all.
However I wonder how much they will be aware of their best tactical voting options, vs younger voting groups?
I could be wrong and they could be just as aware. But this could have an impact on how much it translates to lost Tory seats.
Many of us have stories of "My 60+ relative(s) who vote Tory every election, including in 1997, but are fuming right now" - I think Partygate etc really annoyed this group of people most of all.
However I wonder how much they will be aware of their best tactical voting options, vs younger voting groups?
I could be wrong and they could be just as aware. But this could have an impact on how much it translates to lost Tory seats.
My feeling has always been there will be lots of DNV
In Ireland, crunch time approaching in Dublin Euro constituency, after 16 counts (lots of independents & smaller parties to eliminate & redistribute their accumulated votes).
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226 REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148 LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349 NIALL BOYLAN II 43642 CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403 CLARE DALY I4C 32870 BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
"Jo Brand's controversial joke about throwing battery acid "went beyond what was appropriate" for a Radio 4 comedy show, the BBC has ruled.
The corporation has partially upheld complaints about the quip made by the comedian on Radio 4's Heresy in June.
Referring to political figures who had been hit by milkshakes, she said: "I'm thinking, why bother with a milkshake when you could get some battery acid?"
But the BBC dismissed complaints that her remark amounted to incitement.
Following the broadcast, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, who had a milkshake thrown at him by protesters several weeks earlier, accused Brand of "inciting violence"."
The BBC should never have broadcast that.
A joke that might be funny when said at midnight to 100 drunk people in a comedy club, can be rather inappropriate on national radio.
But of course that was in the days when the BBC got to mark the homework of their own producers, whom they didn’t want to throw under the bus.
I agree that the BBC shouldn't have broadcast that, but the BBC should be even handed. Remember the Clarkson quote on the One Show on public sector strikers?
"Frankly, I'd have them all shot. I would take them outside and execute them in front of their families. I mean, how dare they go on strike when they have these gilt-edged pensions that are going to be guaranteed while the rest of us have to work for a living?"
Let's add Frank Hester to that, joking that Diane Abbott should be shot, and the Tories being perfectly okay with taking £15m in donations from him. I don't accept that the left-wing is the only side that say nasty things.
I think SED has done absolutely the right thing. At first it seems Kooky but all he's done is followed the successful Avis marketing strategy. "We're never going to be the biggest so we tray harder"
....and it works and it's working.
I think it's much simpler than that. Both the Conservatives and Labour are led by charisma-free zones; If you went to the pub with Sunak, he'd get his laptop out and start Excel to calculate how many pints his fortune could buy; whilst SKS would spend hours talking about legal minutiae.
Davey needs the Lib Dems to have airtime, and these stunts do that. But more than that; he looks as though he is enjoying things that *we* enjoy. He looks normal. He looks like one of us: which neither SKS or Sunak do, however much they go on about their toolmaker or chemist parentage.
He was likened to Harry Worth, but those of us old enough to remember the comedy star will know that people actually liked him...or the persona at least. So it is a flattering comparison and one that will do him no harm.
Nerds like me don't really like it because we like to believe elections are about policies and stuff like that, but for a rather bland uncontroversial leader of a Party that struggles to catch the headlines it's a decent enough strategy. It's working so far anyway.
He should carry on with it, I think. He should turn up at the Euros and be seen drinking beer with the fans. As long as he doesn't leave at half-time to do an interview it's a sure-fire winner.
I was mesmerised aged around 5 that Harry Worth could stand in a shop doorway and lift both feet off the ground simultaneously. In later years I understood the science of symmetry.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
But it's not a tax *in practice*. You get money back after time t in relation to how much you pay in (roughly). To ordinary folk, that is an insurance or assurance scheme. If it looks like a duck, and is called a duck, then some pol claiming it's really a rat won't cut the ice as we saw with the Tory faithful reaction.
PBers often talk about legendary election night betting odds:
getting 14/1 on Leave after Farage conceded on EU Referendum night
getting 4/1 on Joe Biden in 2020 when the early results looked decent for Trump
etc etc
I do wonder if the July 4th Exit poll is going to present some great opportunities because it will be so hard to know exactly how to apply the %s to seats. The Exit Poll that millions view on TV might be wide of the mark on seat totals, particularly outside of Labour / Conservatives.
Canny punters could e.g. see the Lib Dems on 12%, see the odds lengthen accordingly as it might be seen as slightly disappointing - but then back them for big seat gains because they believe they'll be efficient enough to win good seats with that number.
The opposite could be said of Reform. Maybe Reform get 17%, and there's a rush of money on them winning multiple seats - but in the end they win 0-1, and you can lay all the money that's gone on them getting 5+ seats.
Would love to see a write up that tries to predict potential opportunities like this.
The exit poll doesn't give vote shares, just seats.
I stand corrected - is there anything with can glean from that / their methodology, maybe compared to the initial seats that are coming in from Sunderland etc? I remember some punters on here talking about how they used Sunderland remain/leave totals in the EU referendum to know which way to bet straight away.
It's obviously very difficult to get this exactly but I'm sure some people will have interesting theories / ideas.
You’re not going to make money betting against Sir John Curtice and the exit poll.
This is your regular reminder that the election boundaries in 2024 are different compared to 2010/15/17/19
Fair point. Will that compromise the reliability of the XP?
No, it won't have any effect on it at all. The exit poll uses certain polling districts, it doesn't rely on constituencies in terms of data gathering. Constituencies only become important when making the forecast.
Collect data from specific polling stations (Ipsos undertaking this). Polling stations the same as 2019 (as far as possible) Analyse change in parties vote share Estimate regression model for changes in vote share given constituency characteristics Apply model to all constituencies to obtain predicted vote share Convert predicted vote share into estimated probabilities of wining seat Exit poll prediction is sum of estimated probabilities
So a MRP style approach.
What does this not capture? Tactical voting in specific constituencies? Location of polling stations are they a good predictive sample given change in the political battleground from 2019? Underlying model methodologies?
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
I don't think that any existing link between NICs and the state pension is an immutable law of nature that cannot be modified though. I think your position is a bit inflexible.
The left/right dichotomy goes back a long way and is fundamentally about a lot more than tax and spending. You can have high spending right-wing governments.
In Ireland, crunch time approaching in Dublin Euro constituency, after 16 counts (lots of independents & smaller parties to eliminate & redistribute their accumulated votes).
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226 REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148 LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349 NIALL BOYLAN II 43642 CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403 CLARE DALY I4C 32870 BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
SSI, I hesitate to challenge you, but isn't Dublin a 4-seater?
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
I don't think that any existing link between NICs and the state pension is an immutable law of nature that cannot be modified though. I think your position is a bit inflexible.
The left/right dichotomy goes back a long way and is fundamentally about a lot more than tax and spending. You can have high spending right-wing governments.
"Jo Brand's controversial joke about throwing battery acid "went beyond what was appropriate" for a Radio 4 comedy show, the BBC has ruled.
The corporation has partially upheld complaints about the quip made by the comedian on Radio 4's Heresy in June.
Referring to political figures who had been hit by milkshakes, she said: "I'm thinking, why bother with a milkshake when you could get some battery acid?"
But the BBC dismissed complaints that her remark amounted to incitement.
Following the broadcast, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, who had a milkshake thrown at him by protesters several weeks earlier, accused Brand of "inciting violence"."
The BBC should never have broadcast that.
A joke that might be funny when said at midnight to 100 drunk people in a comedy club, can be rather inappropriate on national radio.
But of course that was in the days when the BBC got to mark the homework of their own producers, whom they didn’t want to throw under the bus.
I agree that the BBC shouldn't have broadcast that, but the BBC should be even handed. Remember the Clarkson quote on the One Show on public sector strikers?
"Frankly, I'd have them all shot. I would take them outside and execute them in front of their families. I mean, how dare they go on strike when they have these gilt-edged pensions that are going to be guaranteed while the rest of us have to work for a living?"
Let's add Frank Hester to that, joking that Diane Abbott should be shot, and the Tories being perfectly okay with taking £15m in donations from him. I don't accept that the left-wing is the only side that say nasty things.
Isn't the One Show live though? Where as the Jo Brand programme was pre-recorded and is edited down for broadcast i.e. BBC production staff decided that was definitely one of the good bits to keep in from several hours of content.
As I mentioned below, a better example of Clarkson is his Megan article. That went through editors and they thought it was fine, which showed poor judgement to say the least.
Just seen some more WASPI nonsense. Remarkable to be their age and be one of the most adept digital campaigning forces in the country. Especially when a decade earlier they were incapable of opening their post, turning on the news, or reading a paper.
Just seen some more WASPI nonsense. Remarkable to be their age and be one of the most adept digital campaigning forces in the country. Especially when a decade earlier they were incapable of opening their post, turning on the news, or reading a paper.
Farage pulling out of his BBC interview at the last minute shows he is not a serious political figure who can lead a Parliamentary opposition, let alone a government. He will always be much more comfortable on the outside shouting in. The rest if far too much like hard work.
Many of us have stories of "My 60+ relative(s) who vote Tory every election, including in 1997, but are fuming right now" - I think Partygate etc really annoyed this group of people most of all.
However I wonder how much they will be aware of their best tactical voting options, vs younger voting groups?
I could be wrong and they could be just as aware. But this could have an impact on how much it translates to lost Tory seats.
I don't think tactical voting really comes into it for that group. They will split between not voting or going for Reform or the Lib Dems as a protest. Almost none of them will vote Labour.
Guardian feed - someone has spotted that the Tory manifesto plan to abolish LTNs, 20mph etc in Wales is to pass bills in Westminster applying to devolved areas in the hope that the Senedd might give legislative consent (Sewel IIRC) if they are asked nicely.
Edit: part story here (Graun took it from Mr Summer's tweets).
Farage pulling out of his BBC interview at the last minute shows he is not a serious political figure who can lead a Parliamentary opposition, let alone a government. He will always be much more comfortable on the outside shouting in. The rest if far too much like hard work.
In Ireland, crunch time approaching in Dublin Euro constituency, after 16 counts (lots of independents & smaller parties to eliminate & redistribute their accumulated votes).
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226 REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148 LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349 NIALL BOYLAN II 43642 CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403 CLARE DALY I4C 32870 BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
SSI, I hesitate to challenge you, but isn't Dublin a 4-seater?
Indeed! I stand corrected yet again (drat).
Meaning that just 2 seats are in play, assuming wins for Andrews & Doherty. Still think SFer Boylan is likely to get one of them (but maybe not) thus leaving IIer Boylan and a left candidate to duke it out.
Thanks for the correction!
EDIT - BTW (and FYI) quota in DUB = 75,345, though reckon one or more will be elected short of that.
For what it's worth, the stupid stunts of Davey put me off.
Yeah, you got some media attention. For being a berk.
It's a shame the Yorkshire Party want to slice England into bits, otherwise I might well be voting that way. As it is, I'm not sure. Not voting Reform, or Lib Dem, or Labour. Or Conservative. Or Green.
I might not have an option I want to back on the ballot paper.
*checks*
Ah, there is another option! Oh. It's the SDP.
Now, the question is: how do I deface my voting slip? Or do I actually vote Lib Dem? Or give the Conservatives a pity vote? The agony of choice.
Aren't you a .... morris dancer ?
I just thought Morris's surname was Dancer Or are you suggesting there's also nominative determinism at play?
Guardian feed - someone has spotted that the Tory manifesto plan to abolish LTNs, 20mph etc in Wales is to pass bills in Westminster applying to devolved areas in the hope that the Senedd might give legislative consent (Sewel IIRC) if they are asked nicely.
What's Welsh for "go fuck yourself"? We could be about to find out.
Every time Fraser Nelson mentions that the top 1% contribute 28% of all income tax, it just serves as a reminder that the 1% are minted and the rest of the country isn't earning much at all.
The same with this stat. Something has gone horribly wrong when pensioners are the biggest contributors of incometax.
We have a crop of pensioners who put lots into pensions and as a result quite a few have high pension incomes in retirement.
Which is better than them all starving in heaps.
We also have a crop of pensioners on extremely generous gold plated defined benefit pensions that they did not contribute in full towards.
Pensions that were not funded at the time and instead set up on the basis that future workers would pay for the costs instead then they'd get future pensions afterwards, except then the ladder was removed and those pensions aren't available to today's workers.
So we have a triple whammy of needing to pay for pensions that were never costed at the time, not being eligible for those ourselves despite paying for them, AND having to pay higher taxes too.
I'm very sorry you haven't got a DB pension Barty but you do appreciate they were part of the package which some people chose to accept, others opted for different packages at different employers.
You have not paid a penny of my DB pension, unless you contributed to the profits of those companies I worked for, and then presumably you did so because you chose to.
They were a part of the package yes.
But they were never paid for at the time. The bill was passed on.
We're still paying today for DB schemes. Every taxpayer is.
Instead of NI being a higher rate of tax on employment, a higher rate of tax on DB pensions to reflect the way they were unfunded and still need paying for would make more sense.
Alternatively we could tax everyone the same.
But that's how finances work. If you have a mortgage you aren't setting aside a fund out of which to make future payments, you are relying on the prospect of future wages. People tend to start costing the NHS once they hit 50. Do you want to deny them treatment because nobody set aside a fund in 1974 to pay for their future ailments?
No.
I want today's well off pensioners who are in a privileged position to pay at least the same rate of tax as someone earning the same income via PAYE.
They already do you dumb assed clown
The sites thickest poster still doesn't understand that National Insurance is a tax.
Never change malcolm.
You're confusing hypothecation with its absence.
It's an odd tax when you get something back. That's the issue - as is the current government calling it National INSURANCE and saying stuff like
" ... The qualifying years on your National Insurance record affect how much State Pension you get. Check your State Pension forecast to see what you might get when you reach State Pension age. Your spouse or civil partner’s pension
Your new State Pension is usually based on your own National Insurance record. In some cases you might inherit State Pension or increase it through a spouse or civil partner."
Government's say all kind of nonsense, but a tax is a tax is a tax no matter what they call it. NI is a tax, no ifs, buts or equivocations.
As such it should be paid equally by everyone no matter how old or young they are. Someone in their fifties who has a full NI record still has to pay it, why shouldn't someone in their sixties, seventies, eighties or beyond? On all income not just PAYE.
Well, just because you say it is doesn't mean it is. And HMG don't call it a tax. They make it sound like an insurance company product. (Which, btw, is charged for up to a certain age, [edit] unless sickness etc happens, irrespective of when the pension is actually taken).
Your analysis is completely meaningless to the majority of people in the UK. You'd need to abolish NI and increase ICT.
HMG do call it a tax actually. In law and international tax treaties.
What they call it in marketing materials is irrelevant. It's not a product.
Yes we should abolish NI and increase ICT, I've been consistent on that.
Still missing the point. We're talking politics not legalese. Marketing materials *are* relevant, because they are what the person paying for it understands. In that sense it *is* a product - albeit one that is marketed politically and compulsorily. You only need to look at the compulsory employer pensions provided by state-organised schemes for another example - edit: some provided by commercial firms ultimately IIRC.
Farage pulling out of his BBC interview at the last minute shows he is not a serious political figure who can lead a Parliamentary opposition, let alone a government. He will always be much more comfortable on the outside shouting in. The rest if far too much like hard work.
What is his excuse? Got a last minute D-Day event to go to?
To be fair, he has a bullet proof one if he wants it. “Someone just threw a brick at me and I need to spend the evening looking into my security”. Would also get him back in the news.
"Jo Brand's controversial joke about throwing battery acid "went beyond what was appropriate" for a Radio 4 comedy show, the BBC has ruled.
The corporation has partially upheld complaints about the quip made by the comedian on Radio 4's Heresy in June.
Referring to political figures who had been hit by milkshakes, she said: "I'm thinking, why bother with a milkshake when you could get some battery acid?"
But the BBC dismissed complaints that her remark amounted to incitement.
Following the broadcast, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, who had a milkshake thrown at him by protesters several weeks earlier, accused Brand of "inciting violence"."
The BBC should never have broadcast that.
A joke that might be funny when said at midnight to 100 drunk people in a comedy club, can be rather inappropriate on national radio.
But of course that was in the days when the BBC got to mark the homework of their own producers, whom they didn’t want to throw under the bus.
I agree that the BBC shouldn't have broadcast that, but the BBC should be even handed. Remember the Clarkson quote on the One Show on public sector strikers?
"Frankly, I'd have them all shot. I would take them outside and execute them in front of their families. I mean, how dare they go on strike when they have these gilt-edged pensions that are going to be guaranteed while the rest of us have to work for a living?"
Let's add Frank Hester to that, joking that Diane Abbott should be shot, and the Tories being perfectly okay with taking £15m in donations from him. I don't accept that the left-wing is the only side that say nasty things.
Isn't the One Show live though? Where as the Jo Brand programme was pre-recorded and is edited down for broadcast i.e. BBC production staff decided that was definitely one of the good bits to keep in from several hours of content.
Fair point and there was a little bit of a pushback from Matt Baker but there could (and should) have been an apology before the end of the show. And later the BBC could have done their own version of Channel Four's Shaun Ryder rule for Clarkson. Don't know if it's still there but there was a line in C4's editorial guidelines that Ryder was not allowed on live broadcasts.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax 100%.
Just as much as fuel duty is a tax.
Anyone who says otherwise is just being stupid. Idiots get a vote, sure, but it's a tax and that's that.
In Ireland, crunch time approaching in Dublin Euro constituency, after 16 counts (lots of independents & smaller parties to eliminate & redistribute their accumulated votes).
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226 REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148 LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349 NIALL BOYLAN II 43642 CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403 CLARE DALY I4C 32870 BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
SSI, I hesitate to challenge you, but isn't Dublin a 4-seater?
I was wondering if Dubline was a new model of car.
Farage pulling out of his BBC interview at the last minute shows he is not a serious political figure who can lead a Parliamentary opposition, let alone a government. He will always be much more comfortable on the outside shouting in. The rest if far too much like hard work.
What is his excuse? Got a last minute D-Day event to go to?
To be fair, he has a bullet proof one if he wants it. “Someone just threw a brick at me and I need to spend the evening looking into my security”. Would also get him back in the news.
I'm sure that would definitely not encourage more people to throw stuff at him
In Ireland, crunch time approaching in Dublin Euro constituency, after 16 counts (lots of independents & smaller parties to eliminate & redistribute their accumulated votes).
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226 REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148 LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349 NIALL BOYLAN II 43642 CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403 CLARE DALY I4C 32870 BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
SSI, I hesitate to challenge you, but isn't Dublin a 4-seater?
I was wondering if Dubline was a new model of car.
In Ireland, crunch time approaching in Dublin Euro constituency, after 16 counts (lots of independents & smaller parties to eliminate & redistribute their accumulated votes).
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226 REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148 LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349 NIALL BOYLAN II 43642 CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403 CLARE DALY I4C 32870 BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
I think she might get enough transfers to go past the Green. The question is whether the Labour candidate will too.
I'm not convinced that the SF candidate is home and dry.
Farage pulling out of his BBC interview at the last minute shows he is not a serious political figure who can lead a Parliamentary opposition, let alone a government. He will always be much more comfortable on the outside shouting in. The rest if far too much like hard work.
I would be wary of how much impact Ed Davey is actually making. On PB we regularly (myself included) fall into the trap of believing because we are noticing all these things, the normal punter is.
People might have seen the picture, but it doesn't mean they have engaged any further. The public don't pay that much attention and he wasn't invited to do the main debate that was watched by a much smaller audience than previously, but still 5 million.
That been said, the Lib Dem tactics aren't to win everywhere, it is to target specific areas they think they can beat the Tories. The key question is are those people aware of The Unknown Stuntman, Ryan Gosling, I mean Ed Davey.
One of the aspects of Davey's tour which hasn't had so much publicity is the fact pretty much all his stunts are in target constituencies or regions. He is bringing the media to the places he wants them - to show the Lib Dems are the clear local challengers and not to trust those MRPs.
Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June 3,124 respondents (GB)
Focaldata latest
D Day gate seems to be having a very muted impact on Conservative vote share. Bigger impact on Sunak favourability. I interpret that as meaning that the traditional swingback is now starting, but is masked by the twin effects of poor electioneering by Sunak and the Farage effect in Reform.
Though the rounding in that poll is having a big impact. Net change across all those parties of -2%.
In Ireland, crunch time approaching in Dublin Euro constituency, after 16 counts (lots of independents & smaller parties to eliminate & redistribute their accumulated votes).
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226 REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148 LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349 NIALL BOYLAN II 43642 CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403 CLARE DALY I4C 32870 BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
I think she might get enough transfers to go past the Green. The question is whether the Labour candidate will too.
I'm not convinced that the SF candidate is home and dry.
You could be correct.
Re: transfers, many of the votes of excluded PBP-S candidates were themselves transfers, so hard to predict which way they will go, especially as in some cases were down to 4th, 5th, etc. preferences being redistributed.
Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June 3,124 respondents (GB)
Focaldata latest
I feel like the logic of my (and others’) prediction of NOM is sort of validated. In “normal” times, 10% might transfer from Tories to Reform and we’d have been debating whether there would be a majority.
Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June 3,124 respondents (GB)
Focaldata latest
Reform aren't moving much.
Unless Yougov surprises us all tonight, I'm not sure that there's going to be any crossover.
I think there’s good reason to think that Reform have a low ceiling. They are still in a position to cause the Tories a huge problem.
I’m opposed to a Reform-Tory alliance on principle but the polling suggests to my that the Tories could lose more than they gain in a tie up so that should give the less scrupulous pause.
Farage pulling out of his BBC interview at the last minute shows he is not a serious political figure who can lead a Parliamentary opposition, let alone a government. He will always be much more comfortable on the outside shouting in. The rest if far too much like hard work.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
I tend to see left and right wing as being more fundamentally about collectivism and individualism respectively. A left-winger places more value on collective good, while a right-winger values individual freedom more highly. That's why intelligent people can't agree; their axioms are different.
Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June 3,124 respondents (GB)
Focaldata latest
D Day gate seems to be having a very muted impact on Conservative vote share. Bigger impact on Sunak favourability. I interpret that as meaning that the traditional swingback is now starting, but is masked by the twin effects of poor electioneering by Sunak and the Farage effect in Reform.
Though the rounding in that poll is having a big impact. Net change across all those parties of -2%.
D Day impact, in my estimation, is in lowering the number of people who might have switched back at the last minute. People like Big G who could easily have said no, no, no, oh ok then. So the effect wouldn't show in polling change, more in a lost later opportunity.
Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June 3,124 respondents (GB)
Focaldata latest
Reform aren't moving much.
Unless Yougov surprises us all tonight, I'm not sure that there's going to be any crossover.
Nobody's moving very much,
We're nearly halfway through the campaign, and we've seen some pretty dramatic stuff, but the only thing that really seems to have moved the polls is Farage's election of himself as leader and candidature. Even that gave Reform a boost of only about 3 points, taken in various proportions from the other two main parties depending which pollster you look at.
I think most people have made up their minds, and I am having trouble believing anything dramatic enough to change them significantly will happen in the next three weeks.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
I tend to see left and right wing as being more fundamentally about collectivism and individualism respectively. A left-winger places more value on collective good, while a right-winger values individual freedom more highly. That's why intelligent people can't agree; their axioms are different.
To a point. You have to reconcile the average right winger having more sense of country, place, and community in the “steam trains, real ale, and the Church of England” sense.
I wound say the individualistic stuff is Thatcherite, and actually quite 19th century liberal.
Guardian feed - someone has spotted that the Tory manifesto plan to abolish LTNs, 20mph etc in Wales is to pass bills in Westminster applying to devolved areas in the hope that the Senedd might give legislative consent (Sewel IIRC) if they are asked nicely.
What's Welsh for "go fuck yourself"? We could be about to find out.
I suspect there is some dim notion of (a) trying to put LLafur into the position of seemingly having to repeal their legislation all over again (yes, I know they've done it ...) and (b) building up a head of indignation about those Welsh and their Senedd and it being time to do something about it ...
In Ireland, crunch time approaching in Dublin Euro constituency, after 16 counts (lots of independents & smaller parties to eliminate & redistribute their accumulated votes).
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226 REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148 LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349 NIALL BOYLAN II 43642 CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403 CLARE DALY I4C 32870 BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
I think she might get enough transfers to go past the Green. The question is whether the Labour candidate will too.
I'm not convinced that the SF candidate is home and dry.
According to the PBP-SOL transfer guide they are recommending a transfer to I4C but 4,500 feels like too big a gap to overcome to Labour and 5,000 to Greens. Remember that 3,000 of the PBP-SOL total came from Social Democrats so a big chunk of those to Labour rather than I4C?
Quick Edit - if Daly is next to go, I think a lot will go to Niall Boylan. I think it'll be between SF and Labour for the last seat, depending on Green transfers to decide it.
Perhaps the biggest shock of the Post Office Inquiry is finding out that life peer Lord Grabiner emailed former president of the Supreme Court Lord Neuberger using the word 'bollox'. 😲"
For what it's worth, the stupid stunts of Davey put me off.
Yeah, you got some media attention. For being a berk.
It's a shame the Yorkshire Party want to slice England into bits, otherwise I might well be voting that way. As it is, I'm not sure. Not voting Reform, or Lib Dem, or Labour. Or Conservative. Or Green.
I might not have an option I want to back on the ballot paper.
*checks*
Ah, there is another option! Oh. It's the SDP.
Now, the question is: how do I deface my voting slip? Or do I actually vote Lib Dem? Or give the Conservatives a pity vote? The agony of choice.
For those of us implacably opposed to Far Right populism, is it better to have Nigel Farage as a Member of Parliament? Or for him to lose for the 8th time?
I sort-of wonder if it’s better that he’s tied up with Parliamentary and constituency matters for 5 years, although I suppose he might just take the salary and do bugger all for the people of Clacton. He has form.
I think that people need to balance the Davey 'stunts' with his decision to open up about his personal life and background. It comes as a package. His personal story will have resonated with many and the attempts of some (particularly on the right) to criticise him for it have largely been seen as churlish and somewhat arrogant. That has made it difficult to attack him and I suspect that the Tories are really irked by that. They will use the last three weeks of the campaign to shout loudly (as they always do) that a vote for SED is a vote for SKS but I am not sure how much traction that will get. The general population seem to know that the Tories are going to lose and are just trying to limit the damage to their own party. They will also have seen SED as his own man. From what I am seeing and hearing from around the UK the Lib Dem's also appear to be following a very ruthless targeting strategy which may, or may not, pay off, but does show that they understand how to get the best out of elections. We will not know until the polls close but I wonder if when the history is written they will be seen to have had an excellent campaign. It feels like they have known exactly what they are doing from day one and have stuck to a plan which has been well thought through and professionally implemented. Given what is happening to the Tory party I can see them gaining a significant number of seats. Maybe given how they have performed that should not be too much of a surprise. If you compare them to the Tories you have one coming across as human, caring but professional while the other looks, arrogant, out of touch and endlessly lurching from one crisis to the next.
Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June 3,124 respondents (GB)
Focaldata latest
Labour continue to head towards 40% which I think it a likely score for them.
Starmer could get fewer votes than Corbyn in 2017 but still win an historic landslide.
SKSFPE
Is it just me or do these f*cking inane abbreviated sentences annoy others too?
They are hard to read – and make little sense to many. I picked @JosiasJessop up on his endless use of IANAE IANAL etc etc and to be fair to him he's really cut back on using them.
I dislike them, but they pale into insignificance compared to the teeth-grindingly awful Snappy Lec genre: no idea where that came from, but it needs to die.
Accomodation for tonight. We appear to be here alone except for a young lady who greeted us. If you don't hear from me again I will probably be in a pie being sold in a local shop.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
I tend to see left and right wing as being more fundamentally about collectivism and individualism respectively. A left-winger places more value on collective good, while a right-winger values individual freedom more highly. That's why intelligent people can't agree; their axioms are different.
To a point. You have to reconcile the average right winger having more sense of country, place, and community in the “steam trains, real ale, and the Church of England” sense.
I wound say the individualistic stuff is Thatcherite, and actually quite 19th century liberal.
True. Through I suppose that could be seen as a scaling up of the individualist vs collective outlook to a nationalist vs globalist outlook.
Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June 3,124 respondents (GB)
Focaldata latest
Reform aren't moving much.
Unless Yougov surprises us all tonight, I'm not sure that there's going to be any crossover.
I would be very surprised if there isn’t crossover in at least one poll. But that’s just my guess, based on trends and the fact that it’s tantalisingly close with some pollsters.
Farage continues to get media attention. And Sunak continues to flounder.
Of course, the longer it goes without crossover the less time there is for that crossover to have an impact - if it’s a single poll, which is not sustained, close to postal voting starting, then it doesn’t have the time to filter through and affect other people’s voting choices. If it has a week or so to bed in, then you’ve got more chance of it snowballing.
You will always be better at spending your own money than the government is.
EAT OUT TO HELP OUT
In retrospect that ludicrous policy was a warning that the Conservative party should have heeded, had they been paying attention at the time. Sunak is & always has been a fundamentally unserious politician.
I think Reform need a landmark policy proposal that isn’t immigration (because what extra votes does that win them other than what they already have?) or PR.
They could maybe be making more of their £20k personal allowance or 3 year income tax exemption for front line workers. Make something like that the memorable policy of your campaign and you start to attract other voters too.
Would like to commend Leon's daughter for applying for and getting job as an election worker for the GE in Finchley. It's a demanding job, for which I personally have the utmost respect.
Naturally she's excited about earning a few quid, but reckon her excitement goes beyond that.
FYI (and BTW) in my humble experience in USA, election workers tend to be women, for various reasons. One advantage they have over men, is somewhat greater ability to focus on tasks that require constant focus despite being VERY repetitive. For example, making sure that the one-thousandth ballot you process, goes into the correct pile.
Anyway, all the best to her and her coworkers at counts across the UK this coming Independence Day!
Because of course if one of Trump’s kids got convicted for drugs/guns and possibly 25 years in jail the democrats would barely mention it, only note it in passing, etc
How do you equate your newfound love for all things Ukraine with your lust for Far Right populism and its links to Putin? Look back to @TSE ’s post at the beginning of the thread:
"Zelenskyy arrives at German Bundestag.
Full house — almost: Members of the far-right AfD and the far-left BSW parties are absent.
For those of us implacably opposed to Far Right populism, is it better to have Nigel Farage as a Member of Parliament? Or for him to lose for the 8th time?
I sort-of wonder if it’s better that he’s tied up with Parliamentary and constituency matters for 5 years, although I suppose he might just take the salary and do bugger all for the people of Clacton. He has form.
I think from that perspective, the best result would be for Reform to get about 10 MPs. If it's just Farage, he's canny enough to survive the scrutiny that would come from being in Westminster, but many of their other candidates won't be.
On the other hand if they get zero despite winning a lot of votes, it will leave a lot of people feeling unrepresented.
Would like to commend Leon's daughter for applying for and getting job as an election worker for the GE in Finchley. It's a demanding job, for which I personally have the utmost respect.
Naturally she's excited about earning a few quid, but reckon her excitement goes beyond that.
FYI (and BTW) in my humble experience in USA, election workers tend to be women, for various reasons. One advantage they have over men, is somewhat greater ability to focus on tasks that require constant focus despite being VERY repetitive. For example, making sure that the one-thousandth ballot you process, goes into the correct pile.
Anyway, all the best to her and her coworkers at counts across the UK this coming Independence Day!
Election counters are pretty much 50/50 over here AFAIK.
How do you equate your newfound love for all things Ukraine with your lust for Far Right populism and its links to Putin? Look back to @TSE ’s post at the beginning of the thread:
"Zelenskyy arrives at German Bundestag.
Full house — almost: Members of the far-right AfD and the far-left BSW parties are absent.
Would like to commend Leon's daughter for applying for and getting job as an election worker for the GE in Finchley. It's a demanding job, for which I personally have the utmost respect.
Naturally she's excited about earning a few quid, but reckon her excitement goes beyond that.
FYI (and BTW) in my humble experience in USA, election workers tend to be women, for various reasons. One advantage they have over men, is somewhat greater ability to focus on tasks that require constant focus despite being VERY repetitive. For example, making sure that the one-thousandth ballot you process, goes into the correct pile.
Anyway, all the best to her and her coworkers at counts across the UK this coming Independence Day!
I teach undergrads and I can sign off on this. Women are way better students than men .... look at the gender differences in national a-level results. Young men are so disorganised and over confident... it is a huge problem
So the son of the sitting President is a convicted felon, and the main presidential candidate opposing him is a convicted felon
America becomes more Latin America by the day
I suspect it’s what happens when you prioritise winning each play rather than the entire game. The US system is riddled with examples where people are making choices not on the basis of any long term objective but on the short term aim of getting one over the other lot. It leads to all sorts of perverse outcomes.
For those of us implacably opposed to Far Right populism, is it better to have Nigel Farage as a Member of Parliament? Or for him to lose for the 8th time?
I sort-of wonder if it’s better that he’s tied up with Parliamentary and constituency matters for 5 years, although I suppose he might just take the salary and do bugger all for the people of Clacton. He has form.
I think from that perspective, the best result would be for Reform to get about 10 MPs. If it's just Farage, he's canny enough to survive the scrutiny that would come from being in Westminster, but many of their other candidates won't be.
On the other hand if they get zero despite winning a lot of votes, it will leave a lot of people feeling unrepresented.
If previous Farage vehicles are any guide, he'd be off by Christmas and the other 9 would defect in all directions
For those of us implacably opposed to Far Right populism, is it better to have Nigel Farage as a Member of Parliament? Or for him to lose for the 8th time?
I sort-of wonder if it’s better that he’s tied up with Parliamentary and constituency matters for 5 years, although I suppose he might just take the salary and do bugger all for the people of Clacton. He has form.
I think from that perspective, the best result would be for Reform to get about 10 MPs. If it's just Farage, he's canny enough to survive the scrutiny that would come from being in Westminster, but many of their other candidates won't be.
On the other hand if they get zero despite winning a lot of votes, it will leave a lot of people feeling unrepresented.
Yup. Farage in Parliament will go viral with his speeches like he did in Brussels. If you oppose him, you want him tied up in other matters that damage him and stop that cutting through.
Would like to commend Leon's daughter for applying for and getting job as an election worker for the GE in Finchley. It's a demanding job, for which I personally have the utmost respect.
Naturally she's excited about earning a few quid, but reckon her excitement goes beyond that.
FYI (and BTW) in my humble experience in USA, election workers tend to be women, for various reasons. One advantage they have over men, is somewhat greater ability to focus on tasks that require constant focus despite being VERY repetitive. For example, making sure that the one-thousandth ballot you process, goes into the correct pile.
Anyway, all the best to her and her coworkers at counts across the UK this coming Independence Day!
Why Thankyou, sir!
I shall hand on your appreciation. She’s a firm Labour voter in this election - she’s very politically aware for her age, and certainly not a sheep. She has her own views and she’s bright
I asked her during her 18th birthday picnic who she would vote for if she were American. She sighed and shook her head and said “what a choice…. I just couldn’t vote for either of them”
Every time Fraser Nelson mentions that the top 1% contribute 28% of all income tax, it just serves as a reminder that the 1% are minted and the rest of the country isn't earning much at all.
The same with this stat. Something has gone horribly wrong when pensioners are the biggest contributors of incometax.
We have a crop of pensioners who put lots into pensions and as a result quite a few have high pension incomes in retirement.
Which is better than them all starving in heaps.
We also have a crop of pensioners on extremely generous gold plated defined benefit pensions that they did not contribute in full towards.
Pensions that were not funded at the time and instead set up on the basis that future workers would pay for the costs instead then they'd get future pensions afterwards, except then the ladder was removed and those pensions aren't available to today's workers.
So we have a triple whammy of needing to pay for pensions that were never costed at the time, not being eligible for those ourselves despite paying for them, AND having to pay higher taxes too.
I'm very sorry you haven't got a DB pension Barty but you do appreciate they were part of the package which some people chose to accept, others opted for different packages at different employers.
You have not paid a penny of my DB pension, unless you contributed to the profits of those companies I worked for, and then presumably you did so because you chose to.
They were a part of the package yes.
But they were never paid for at the time. The bill was passed on.
We're still paying today for DB schemes. Every taxpayer is.
Instead of NI being a higher rate of tax on employment, a higher rate of tax on DB pensions to reflect the way they were unfunded and still need paying for would make more sense.
Alternatively we could tax everyone the same.
But that's how finances work. If you have a mortgage you aren't setting aside a fund out of which to make future payments, you are relying on the prospect of future wages. People tend to start costing the NHS once they hit 50. Do you want to deny them treatment because nobody set aside a fund in 1974 to pay for their future ailments?
No.
I want today's well off pensioners who are in a privileged position to pay at least the same rate of tax as someone earning the same income via PAYE.
They already do you dumb assed clown
The sites thickest poster still doesn't understand that National Insurance is a tax.
Never change malcolm.
You're confusing hypothecation with its absence.
It's an odd tax when you get something back. That's the issue - as is the current government calling it National INSURANCE and saying stuff like
" ... The qualifying years on your National Insurance record affect how much State Pension you get. Check your State Pension forecast to see what you might get when you reach State Pension age. Your spouse or civil partner’s pension
Your new State Pension is usually based on your own National Insurance record. In some cases you might inherit State Pension or increase it through a spouse or civil partner."
Government's say all kind of nonsense, but a tax is a tax is a tax no matter what they call it. NI is a tax, no ifs, buts or equivocations.
As such it should be paid equally by everyone no matter how old or young they are. Someone in their fifties who has a full NI record still has to pay it, why shouldn't someone in their sixties, seventies, eighties or beyond? On all income not just PAYE.
Well, just because you say it is doesn't mean it is. And HMG don't call it a tax. They make it sound like an insurance company product. (Which, btw, is charged for up to a certain age, [edit] unless sickness etc happens, irrespective of when the pension is actually taken).
Your analysis is completely meaningless to the majority of people in the UK. You'd need to abolish NI and increase ICT.
HMG do call it a tax actually. In law and international tax treaties.
What they call it in marketing materials is irrelevant. It's not a product.
Yes we should abolish NI and increase ICT, I've been consistent on that.
Still missing the point. We're talking politics not legalese. Marketing materials *are* relevant, because they are what the person paying for it understands. In that sense it *is* a product - albeit one that is marketed politically and compulsorily. You only need to look at the compulsory employer pensions provided by state-organised schemes for another example - edit: some provided by commercial firms ultimately IIRC.
You will always be better at spending your own money than the government is.
EAT OUT TO HELP OUT
In retrospect that ludicrous policy was a warning that the Conservative party should have heeded, had they been paying attention at the time. Sunak is & always has been a fundamentally unserious politician.
Are you suggesting that it should have been a warning sign that a few weeks after shelling out huge sums of public money paying people people to stay at home and avoid spreading the virus, Sunak thought it would be a great idea to spend public money encouraging people to socialise and spread it?
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
I tend to see left and right wing as being more fundamentally about collectivism and individualism respectively. A left-winger places more value on collective good, while a right-winger values individual freedom more highly. That's why intelligent people can't agree; their axioms are different.
But right-wing Brexiteers always talked about the nation and the UK as "us/we" and ignored the individual freedoms that were lost.
I wonder what emotional impact this will have on Father Joe Biden. Hunter is clearly something of a a favoured yet prodigal son
Joe is already half senile could this push him over the edge?
More positively, is it possible he will drop out of the race for family reasons, and the democrats could find someone under 180 years old that isn’t Kamala?
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
Nah, its trying to be three or four quite different versions of the Tories at once, and failing to deliver on all fronts. So each Tory faction just blames the other rather than thinking a united government with a coherent platform might at least have some chance.
That too. But I have noticed that most of those who complain that this government are left wing are themselves very right wing.
You see the same but the opposite with those who say Labour are red tories. They tend to be (to put it mildly) on the left.
In Ireland, crunch time approaching in Dublin Euro constituency, after 16 counts (lots of independents & smaller parties to eliminate & redistribute their accumulated votes).
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226 REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148 LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349 NIALL BOYLAN II 43642 CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403 CLARE DALY I4C 32870 BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
I think she might get enough transfers to go past the Green. The question is whether the Labour candidate will too.
I'm not convinced that the SF candidate is home and dry.
According to the PBP-SOL transfer guide they are recommending a transfer to I4C but 4,500 feels like too big a gap to overcome to Labour and 5,000 to Greens. Remember that 3,000 of the PBP-SOL total came from Social Democrats so a big chunk of those to Labour rather than I4C?
Quick Edit - if Daly is next to go, I think a lot will go to Niall Boylan. I think it'll be between SF and Labour for the last seat, depending on Green transfers to decide it.
I agree that SF are in trouble. Independent Ireland have had a good round of results, and an MEP for them in Dublin, of all places, would really be the cherry on top for them.
I wonder what emotional impact this will have on Father Joe Biden. Hunter is clearly something of a a favoured yet prodigal son
Joe is already half senile could this push him over the edge?
More positively, is it possible he will drop out of the race for family reasons, and the democrats could find someone under 180 years old that isn’t Kamala?
Asking for the free world
It would definitely be a good out. I’m not sure he will though.
BIden might actually benefit from his son's conviction. By unequivocally accepting the court's decision, and the sentence it imposes, he will create a very real contrast with Trump's accusations of a rigged system. That could go down very well with independents.
For those of us implacably opposed to Far Right populism, is it better to have Nigel Farage as a Member of Parliament? Or for him to lose for the 8th time?
I sort-of wonder if it’s better that he’s tied up with Parliamentary and constituency matters for 5 years, although I suppose he might just take the salary and do bugger all for the people of Clacton. He has form.
I think from that perspective, the best result would be for Reform to get about 10 MPs. If it's just Farage, he's canny enough to survive the scrutiny that would come from being in Westminster, but many of their other candidates won't be.
On the other hand if they get zero despite winning a lot of votes, it will leave a lot of people feeling unrepresented.
Good point.
And on top of that, being leader of a small but unruly group would force him to spend time and energy on party management more generally - he'd have to be leader, whip, and originator of policy rolled into one.
As a lone MP, he'd be free to bin off most parliamentary activities apart from turning up at PMQs once a month or so to grandstand as a tail-end questioner. An Andrew Bridgen-esque role is probably his sweet spot.
Comments
I won't be voting for Rishi, but his D Day error wouldn't stop me. We are a nation of elderly snowflakes.
However I wonder how much they will be aware of their best tactical voting options, vs younger voting groups?
I could be wrong and they could be just as aware. But this could have an impact on how much it translates to lost Tory seats.
So far 0 of 5 seats up for grabs has been decided, but that will change today.
As I type, votes cast/accumulated for left candidate for People Before Profit-Solidarity candidate are being redistributed among the 7 hopefuls still in the hunt.
BARRY ANDREWS FF 66226
REGINA DOHERTY FG 65148
LYNN BOYLAN SF 47349
NIALL BOYLAN II 43642
CIARÁN CUFFE GP 37842
AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN LAB 37403
CLARE DALY I4C 32870
BRÍD SMITH PBP-SOL 28772 - Excluded
Lowest on the greasy poll is Clare Daly of Independents 4 Change; immediate question is, will she OR won't she receive enough transfers to pass Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin?
Based on above, Andrews & Doherty will be elected for sure, and probably Boyland the SFer as well. Leaving two seats left to fill, between two left candidates AND rightwing anti-immigrant shock jock the other Boylan.
Am wondering IF either is related to the famous (in literary circles anyway) Blazes Boylan? Whom wiki describes as "well known and well liked around [Dublin] but comes across as a rather sleazy individual, especially regarding his attitudes toward women." Which sounds just like the shock jock!
Collect data from specific polling stations (Ipsos undertaking this).
Polling stations the same as 2019 (as far as possible)
Analyse change in parties vote share
Estimate regression model for changes in vote share given constituency characteristics
Apply model to all constituencies to obtain predicted vote share
Convert predicted vote share into estimated probabilities of wining seat
Exit poll prediction is sum of estimated probabilities
So a MRP style approach.
What does this not capture?
Tactical voting in specific constituencies?
Location of polling stations are they a good predictive sample given change in the political battleground from 2019?
Underlying model methodologies?
The left/right dichotomy goes back a long way and is fundamentally about a lot more than tax and spending. You can have high spending right-wing governments.
As I mentioned below, a better example of Clarkson is his Megan article. That went through editors and they thought it was fine, which showed poor judgement to say the least.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-hitler-pulls-out-bbc-interview-b2560440.html
Edit: part story here (Graun took it from Mr Summer's tweets).
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/rishi-sunak-promises-scrap-default-29333763
Meaning that just 2 seats are in play, assuming wins for Andrews & Doherty. Still think SFer Boylan is likely to get one of them (but maybe not) thus leaving IIer Boylan and a left candidate to duke it out.
Thanks for the correction!
EDIT - BTW (and FYI) quota in DUB = 75,345, though reckon one or more will be elected short of that.
https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/results/#/european/dublin
NI is a tax. End of discussion.
Labour: 42% (-2)
Conservative: 24% (-1)
Reform UK: 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 9% (-)
Green: 5% (-)
Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June
3,124 respondents (GB)
Focaldata latest
Just as much as fuel duty is a tax.
Anyone who says otherwise is just being stupid. Idiots get a vote, sure, but it's a tax and that's that.
I'm not convinced that the SF candidate is home and dry.
Unless Yougov surprises us all tonight, I'm not sure that there's going to be any crossover.
A couple of months of trying to deliver anything and he would sink without trace.
If the tories want to continue even further right-wing after the election I will try not to snigger.
The further right they go the further they walk into the political wilderness.
Though the rounding in that poll is having a big impact. Net change across all those parties of -2%.
Re: transfers, many of the votes of excluded PBP-S candidates were themselves transfers, so hard to predict which way they will go, especially as in some cases were down to 4th, 5th, etc. preferences being redistributed.
Also if my aunty had a…. Etc.
I’m opposed to a Reform-Tory alliance on principle but the polling suggests to my that the Tories could lose more than they gain in a tie up so that should give the less scrupulous pause.
And I would want to define fairly carefully what a buck and a bronco are.
I can't prove this, of course. Hunch.
We're nearly halfway through the campaign, and we've seen some pretty dramatic stuff, but the only thing that really seems to have moved the polls is Farage's election of himself as leader and candidature. Even that gave Reform a boost of only about 3 points, taken in various proportions from the other two main parties depending which pollster you look at.
I think most people have made up their minds, and I am having trouble believing anything dramatic enough to change them significantly will happen in the next three weeks.
I wound say the individualistic stuff is Thatcherite, and actually quite 19th century liberal.
Quick Edit - if Daly is next to go, I think a lot will go to Niall Boylan. I think it'll be between SF and Labour for the last seat, depending on Green transfers to decide it.
@JohnHyde1982
Perhaps the biggest shock of the Post Office Inquiry is finding out that life peer Lord Grabiner emailed former president of the Supreme Court Lord Neuberger using the word 'bollox'. 😲"
https://x.com/JohnHyde1982/status/1800534868625097086
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLiThVkrrTo
"You're seeing results for SKYPE
You originally searched for SKSFPE"
But you were never ever going to vote LibDem.
For those of us implacably opposed to Far Right populism, is it better to have Nigel Farage as a Member of Parliament? Or for him to lose for the 8th time?
I sort-of wonder if it’s better that he’s tied up with Parliamentary and constituency matters for 5 years, although I suppose he might just take the salary and do bugger all for the people of Clacton. He has form.
His personal story will have resonated with many and the attempts of some (particularly on the right) to criticise him for it have largely been seen as churlish and somewhat arrogant. That has made it difficult to attack him and I suspect that the Tories are really irked by that. They will use the last three weeks of the campaign to shout loudly (as they always do) that a vote for SED is a vote for SKS but I am not sure how much traction that will get. The general population seem to know that the Tories are going to lose and are just trying to limit the damage to their own party. They will also have seen SED as his own man.
From what I am seeing and hearing from around the UK the Lib Dem's also appear to be following a very ruthless targeting strategy which may, or may not, pay off, but does show that they understand how to get the best out of elections.
We will not know until the polls close but I wonder if when the history is written they will be seen to have had an excellent campaign. It feels like they have known exactly what they are doing from day one and have stuck to a plan which has been well thought through and professionally implemented. Given what is happening to the Tory party I can see them gaining a significant number of seats. Maybe given how they have performed that should not be too much of a surprise. If you compare them to the Tories you have one coming across as human, caring but professional while the other looks, arrogant, out of touch and endlessly lurching from one crisis to the next.
I dislike them, but they pale into insignificance compared to the teeth-grindingly awful Snappy Lec genre: no idea where that came from, but it needs to die.
Accomodation for tonight. We appear to be here alone except for a young lady who greeted us. If you don't hear from me again I will probably be in a pie being sold in a local shop.
https://x.com/skynews/status/1800548537744400862?s=46
No doubt the MAGA crowd will go OTT about this.
Farage continues to get media attention. And Sunak continues to flounder.
Of course, the longer it goes without crossover the less time there is for that crossover to have an impact - if it’s a single poll, which is not sustained, close to postal voting starting, then it doesn’t have the time to filter through and affect other people’s voting choices. If it has a week or so to bed in, then you’ve got more chance of it snowballing.
America becomes more Latin America by the day
They could maybe be making more of their £20k personal allowance or 3 year income tax exemption for front line workers. Make something like that the memorable policy of your campaign and you start to attract other voters too.
Naturally she's excited about earning a few quid, but reckon her excitement goes beyond that.
FYI (and BTW) in my humble experience in USA, election workers tend to be women, for various reasons. One advantage they have over men, is somewhat greater ability to focus on tasks that require constant focus despite being VERY repetitive. For example, making sure that the one-thousandth ballot you process, goes into the correct pile.
Anyway, all the best to her and her coworkers at counts across the UK this coming Independence Day!
How do you equate your newfound love for all things Ukraine with your lust for Far Right populism and its links to Putin? Look back to @TSE ’s post at the beginning of the thread:
"Zelenskyy arrives at German Bundestag.
Full house — almost: Members of the far-right AfD and the far-left BSW parties are absent.
I let you draw your own conclusions…
https://x.com/vonderburchard/status/1800508500155785653"
On the other hand if they get zero despite winning a lot of votes, it will leave a lot of people feeling unrepresented.
Mystic Iain strikes again…
Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
Imagine him on the debate on MPs’ salaries.
I shall hand on your appreciation. She’s a firm Labour voter in this election - she’s very politically aware for her age, and certainly not a sheep. She has her own views and she’s bright
I asked her during her 18th birthday picnic who she would vote for if she were American. She sighed and shook her head and said “what a choice…. I just couldn’t vote for either of them”
Sensible kid
Joe is already half senile could this push him over the edge?
More positively, is it possible he will drop out of the race for family reasons, and the democrats could find someone under 180 years old that isn’t Kamala?
Asking for the free world
You see the same but the opposite with those who say Labour are red tories. They tend to be (to put it mildly) on the left.
And on top of that, being leader of a small but unruly group would force him to spend time and energy on party management more generally - he'd have to be leader, whip, and originator of policy rolled into one.
As a lone MP, he'd be free to bin off most parliamentary activities apart from turning up at PMQs once a month or so to grandstand as a tail-end questioner. An Andrew Bridgen-esque role is probably his sweet spot.
Con 40%
RefUK 27%
Lab 18%
DK 10%
LD 3%
Grn 1%
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800536988665393233