A Portillo moment for a new generation? – politicalbetting.com

Casino_Royale said:

Malmesbury said:

darkage said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

As long as also accompanied by better rehabilitation inside given the vast majority of prisoners will eventually be released back into society

A liberal lefty has hacked into HY's account.

No not much different to what Justice Secretary Alex Chalk has said

The 20,000 prison places are what the conservatives have planned but not been able to deliver due to problems with the planning system. Labour are saying that they will circumvent this by issuing 'development consent orders' but these still have to go through a year plus long process of examination so not a quick route. The government could just 'call in' the planning applications submitted by the Ministry of Justice and approve them. Apparently the hold ups are something to do with badgers and retained EU rules about protected species.

The 20,000 are not enough, there are 87,000 prisoners in 80,000 places at present. Really they need something like 100,000 more prison places to start to meet public demand for longer sentences. At least having labour in power will hopefully stop the government opportunistically passing laws for longer sentences in the hope that the consequences will be passed on to the next government.

Idea - Train the prisoners in building trades. Then they can build prisons as part of their sentence reduction.

Badgers are thugs. If they were humans, they would be the shaven headed guy at the end of the bar who no one sits next to. With "Love" and "Hate" tattoos on their knuckles. Build the prisons round them.

We have some absurd rules around badgers, largely driven by misty-eyed sentiment.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Anabobazina said:

Ye Gods. Someone has Goodwinned the thread AGAIN! One yearns for some sunny day where we aren’t subjected to the deranged ramblings of this prize helmet.

You want to stop deranged ramblings on PB? What does that leave?

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

TimS said:

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

The far right is going to have its day in the sun, though lack of internal coordination between the parties makes its administrative impact rather limited.

The other thing that stops them uniting into a powerful bloc is that different versions of them believe different things.

Put simply, there are truly nasty neo-nazis in suits, like the AfD and Sweden democrats, the successors to Hitler and Mussolini, and there are dozens of essentially Falangist parties, the successors to Franco. The current iteration of the RN in France, the PiS in Poland and Meloni in Italy are Falangists. At worst. Arguably just 19th century style authoritarians.

The AfD are the scariest. Worse than Trump, though less powerful.

The other divide is pro-Putinists vs the rest. Another where PiS and Meloni are on one side.

History tends to repeat itself and what happens on a small scale in the UK first (reformation and religious conflict, anti-royalist revolution, the rise of socialism) then manifests itself in a vastly more bloody way in Central Europe next. We did Brexit back in 2016, so they are due.

Is it not a category error to call any democratic politician a fascist/falangist/nazi given that the one thing they had in common was opposition to multi-party democracy?

Hitler came to power via a multiparty democratic system.

Genuine question - the Nazis were fairly contemptuous of democracy during their rise to power. But did they advocate ending democracy? I don't seem to recall that. I believe they advocated banning "communist parties".

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Interesting data from the US. There's been a big drop in support for gay marriage among gen-z, while in every other age group, it's increased.

https://www.americansurveycenter.org/research/generation-z-and-the-transformation-of-american-adolescence-how-gen-zs-formative-experiences-shape-its-politics-priorities-and-future/

Not a huge change, especially given American Gen Z still supports gay marriage more than American boomers and Gen X does

Alanbrooke said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Alanbrooke said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Alanbrooke said:

eek said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

I think the criminal justice system will be priority for Starmer. He has an understanding and interest in it way beyond the average politician.

The 80 extra rape courts also is a step forward. Justice delayed is justice denied.

except he'll cram legislation through the statute books and the courts will have more they cant cope with.

Utter bollox - but not surprising given that you don’t even live in the uk

LOL, when did Warwickshire leave the UK ?

Question: Is Warwickshire pronounced "Woke-shire"? At least by residents with a speech impediment!

Na worrick - sher

But we have a GAA team if that helps

https://warwickshire.gaa.ie/

I'm as big a fan of GAA as I am of Boston Celtics or Celtic F.C.

That is, not at all.

tsk, next you'll be saying you like cricket.

spudgfsh said:

Macron has just dissolved the french Parliament! election to take place around the same time as ours

spudgfsh said:

Macron has just dissolved the french Parliament! election to take place around the same time as ours

spudgfsh said:

Macron has just dissolved the french Parliament! election to take place around the same time as ours

spudgfsh said:

Macron has just dissolved the french Parliament! election to take place around the same time as ours

rottenborough said:

spudgfsh said:

Macron has just dissolved the french Parliament! election to take place around the same time as ours

Source?

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

As long as also accompanied by better rehabilitation inside given the vast majority of prisoners will eventually be released back into society

A liberal lefty has hacked into HY's account.

No not much different to what Justice Secretary Alex Chalk has said

Stuartinromford said:

spudgfsh said:

Macron has just dissolved the french Parliament! election to take place around the same time as ours

Bonjour.

June 30th, which is commendably efficient.

Presumably it's an attempt to replay the "you really want the fash? Really?" gambit Sanchez used in Spain. Wonder how the UK and French campaigns interact?

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

Audiences now openly laughing at Tory ministers:

https://x.com/pinguforest/status/1799826191693844642

See. My take is they honestly believe this.
What do others reckon?

Casino_Royale said:

darkage said:

Someone posted government data on actual incomes pre and post tax. It is quite fascinating. A 50k wage puts you in the top 16% of earners, £100k in the top 4%. What this seems to demonstrate to me is that the salary expectations of graduates as envisaged by the student loan system is completely disconnected from reality. To even service the interest payments on a 70k loan you would need to be in the top 10% of earners.

Are we comparing apples with apples?

How are earners defined? Do they include those on pensions, for example, or only those of working age from 16-65?

Even if the latter in any society like ours you will have vast swathes of people earning 15k-30k in all sorts of semi-skilled/services jobs so I'd expect top-end graduate jobs to be a top segment of 20%.

It does beg the question why we aim for 50% graduates, though.

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

Malmesbury said:

darkage said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

As long as also accompanied by better rehabilitation inside given the vast majority of prisoners will eventually be released back into society

A liberal lefty has hacked into HY's account.

No not much different to what Justice Secretary Alex Chalk has said

The 20,000 prison places are what the conservatives have planned but not been able to deliver due to problems with the planning system. Labour are saying that they will circumvent this by issuing 'development consent orders' but these still have to go through a year plus long process of examination so not a quick route. The government could just 'call in' the planning applications submitted by the Ministry of Justice and approve them. Apparently the hold ups are something to do with badgers and retained EU rules about protected species.

The 20,000 are not enough, there are 87,000 prisoners in 80,000 places at present. Really they need something like 100,000 more prison places to start to meet public demand for longer sentences. At least having labour in power will hopefully stop the government opportunistically passing laws for longer sentences in the hope that the consequences will be passed on to the next government.

Idea - Train the prisoners in building trades. Then they can build prisons as part of their sentence reduction.

Badgers are thugs. If they were humans, they would be the shaven headed guy at the end of the bar who no one sits next to. With "Love" and "Hate" tattoos on their knuckles. Build the prisons round them.

We have some absurd rules around badgers, largely driven by misty-eyed sentiment.

Many wild life lovers haven't met the wild life in question.

Watching some of them cuddle a badger would be... interesting.

Malmesbury said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

RN look to be winning 31-32% in France. LREM on 15%, PS on 14%, Les Republicans on 8%, Other Right and Greens just above the 5% threshold.

Le Pen cruising to victory at the next POTFR elex, as things stand

Fancy a bet on that?

Non, far too far away, anything might happen

That said after my highly successful bet with @Sandpit I could be tempted by the correct odds, if you are willing to offer

Shame.

But that’s my point. It’s far too far away, anything might happen.

So stating that Le Pen is ‘cruising to victory at the next POTFR’ is your normal trolling. Tsk.

It’s worth remembering that Nigel Farage was elected as a British Member of the European Parliament from 1991 until 2021 (drawing an EU salary). And he has 7 times failed to be elected as UK Member of Parliament.

Le Pen’s party having some limited success in this election does not translate straight to next time’s Presidential elections.

The problem (according to various French friends who are horrified by the prospect) is that the traditional parties are seen as being out of road. En Marche is a one-man vehicle. And he can't run again.

They think that the "Anyone but Le Pen" thing in French presidential politics will break the next time.

Ghedebrav said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Ghedebrav said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjllk8x353yo

Off topic. Interesting stuff on old Lowry interviews uncovered.

I’ve reappraised him recently; I’d mentally pigeonholed him as a bit tiresome and amateurish but actually there’s a lot to his work - and I feel the key to it was looking at it from the viewpoint of his having probably quite deep and chronic depression.

Beyond the factory/crowd scenes he is best known for, there is a lot of pretty weird and visionary and even near-abstract (his seascapes). Since experiencing a sustained depressive bout myself I found I could relate to his work so much more.

His studies of girls in chaste but preposterously tight/throttling dress take on a peculiar dimension when considering the absence of romance in his life.

I was fortunate enough to go to an exhibition of his work many years ago and was knocked out by the range, skill and profundity of his work. Anyone who just thinks of him as just a painter of northern industrial landscapes is seriously underating him.

I was in the latter category until recently but have happily reappraised since. Whether he is a genuinely major artist, I’m not sure - but he was certainly much more interesting than the million prints of ‘going to the match’ might leave you thinking.

I don’t think that naff ‘Matchstick Men’ song helped either.

StillWaters said:

SandyRentool said:

StillWaters said:

carnforth said:

Farooq said:

algarkirk said:

pigeon said:

On the general topic of things being reported in the Mail, here's something else of interest:

Jeremy Hunt has vowed to do more to help those on six-figure salaries if the Tories win the general election - and he clings on to his own seat.

The Chancellor suggested, if he remains in charge of the Treasury beyond 4 July, he would be focused on removing 'cliff edges' for high earners in the tax system.

Mr Hunt pointed to how the Government's offer of free childcare for parents is not available if one of them is earning over £100,000.

....

'Around here the childcare reforms have been pretty popular,' the Chancellor said, as he spoke to the newspaper in Bramley, Surrey.

'But people also do raise the fact that one person earning over £100,000 means you don't get access to them and that creates a cliff edge.

'Because it was a big commitment we just couldn't afford to do more when I made the original announcement.

'But those are things I think we definitely want to make progress on, yes.'

He added: 'I've always said that if you want to be economically productive we have to get rid of the cliff edges in the tax system.

'The removal of the personal allowance, the fact that childcare support stops when one person in a household is earning over £100,000.

'If you speak to economists, they will say the most damaging things in the tax system are when you have things with a high marginal rate.

'So it is absolutely on our list as something we would like to do more on.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13510505/Jeremy-Hunt-vows-help-six-figure-earners-Tories-win-general-election-Chancellor-survives-Portillo-moment-4-July.html

Compare this to the incessant foot-dragging over the victimisation of Carer's Allowance claimants who, earning, shall we say, somewhat less than £100,000, have found themselves falling over a cliff edge for earning about 56p too much and being ruthlessly pursued by Government-appointed debt collectors.

A good illustration of where Conservative priorities *appear* to lie - but it'll be fascinating to see which, if either, of these issues is deemed worthy of mention in the forthcoming manifesto.

It's quite hard dealing with the whole nation. Where I live £100k pa is loads and loads. In much of London and the SE it isn't (SFAICS).

£100k is more than double the median London wage, which is about £44k.

£97400 before tax puts someone in the top 4% of those having liability for income tax:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/percentile-points-from-1-to-99-for-total-
income-before-and-after-tax

£50000 gets you into the top 16%.

Worth remembering that the top 1.5% pay
more than 35% of total income tax

They could take a pay cut and thereby pay less tax.

Who would benefit from that?

dixiedean said:

Macron is a canny git.
Either Le Pen wins and has to govern. Or loses yet again.
Either way, she can't get more popular.
Some elan in the timing too.
Very French.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

What Leon and others miss in their Europe will lurch to the right thesis is that it is authoritarianism they increasingly find attractive, whether of right, left or middle. A strongman to free us from crime and vanquish our enemies and enforce bike lanes.

dixiedean said:

Macron is a canny git.
Either Le Pen wins and has to govern. Or loses yet again.
Either way, she can't get more popular.
Some elan in the timing too.
Very French.

Casino_Royale said:

darkage said:

Someone posted government data on actual incomes pre and post tax. It is quite fascinating. A 50k wage puts you in the top 16% of earners, £100k in the top 4%. What this seems to demonstrate to me is that the salary expectations of graduates as envisaged by the student loan system is completely disconnected from reality. To even service the interest payments on a 70k loan you would need to be in the top 10% of earners.

Are we comparing apples with apples?

How are earners defined? Do they include those on pensions, for example, or only those of working age from 16-65?

Even if the latter in any society like ours you will have vast swathes of people earning 15k-30k in all sorts of semi-skilled/services jobs so I'd expect top-end graduate jobs to be a top segment of 20%.

It does beg the question why we aim for 50% graduates, though.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Pagan2 said:

carnforth said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Look, I don't know who's making these claims or frankly why you've suddenly got a bee in your bonnet, but try this form of argument.

If you're going to get twenty-five quid, and someone says hey, I know, let's throw one of those pounds in the lake because if we do that we'll get a magic wish from the Lake People.
So the money comes and you pocket £24 and you throw the other pound coin into the water -- plop! -- and you wait for your magic Lake People wish.

And you wait.

And you wait.

And eventually you realise you aren't getting a magic wish. You tell the person that their stupid policy cost you 4%.
That would be a fair statement, even though at no point did any money actually leave your pocket.

Just to be clear, I've no idea where this 4% stuff is coming from, I'm just reflecting the number back at you because you used it. I don't have any kind of position on whether Brexit has cost this amount or not. I can tell you though (in case you need it spelling out, which I'm certain you do) that there are no magic-wish-giving Lake People.

It's the ONS's mean of other people's predictions:



Many of those predictions, when you look at the detail, have very dodgy central cases: for example, one of them assumes, as the central case, that we leave with no deal and then make a deal after a couple of years. Almost all assume immigration falls markedly or catastophically.

I used the 4% drop in gdp as it often features in remainer arguments about why brexit isn't working. I am merely pointing out its bollocks because we rarely achieved a 4% increase on gdp while in the eu

The 4% forecasted fall in GDP is measuring the long term effect on the economy relative to the no Brexit counterfactual, it doesn't refer to a drop in GDP from one year to the next.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

What Leon and others miss in their Europe will lurch to the right thesis is that it is authoritarianism they increasingly find attractive, whether of right, left or middle. A strongman to free us from crime and vanquish our enemies and enforce bike lanes.

Alanbrooke said:

dixiedean said:

Macron is a canny git.
Either Le Pen wins and has to govern. Or loses yet again.
Either way, she can't get more popular.

It's certainly a spoiler strategy. The risk for him his c0-haitation when tried before was hard work.

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

What Leon and others miss in their Europe will lurch to the right thesis is that it is authoritarianism they increasingly find attractive, whether of right, left or middle. A strongman to free us from crime and vanquish our enemies and enforce bike lanes.

Is it really though? Sure Orban misbehaves, but Tusk deposed the Polish authritarians democratically, which seems to suggest that they aren't really very authoritarian at all.

Reform and Farage spout incoherent right wing populism to the gullible, and I hold them in great contempt, but even I don't think them undemocratic. Indeed about the only policy I agree with them is the need to move to PR.

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

darkage said:

Someone posted government data on actual incomes pre and post tax. It is quite fascinating. A 50k wage puts you in the top 16% of earners, £100k in the top 4%. What this seems to demonstrate to me is that the salary expectations of graduates as envisaged by the student loan system is completely disconnected from reality. To even service the interest payments on a 70k loan you would need to be in the top 10% of earners.

Are we comparing apples with apples?

How are earners defined? Do they include those on pensions, for example, or only those of working age from 16-65?

Even if the latter in any society like ours you will have vast swathes of people earning 15k-30k in all sorts of semi-skilled/services jobs so I'd expect top-end graduate jobs to be a top segment of 20%.

It does beg the question why we aim for 50% graduates, though.

I don't think it's a coincidence that countries with more successful economies than Britain's have high rates of participation in tertiary education.

I mean, Britain could continue to be a backward second-rate economy with low productivity if you really want, and deciding not to educate British children and instead importing the educated people the economy requires saves you some spending on the education budget, but it's not an approach that any other country with aspirations follows.

Why is British culture so anti-education?

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Macron is a canny git.
Either Le Pen wins and has to govern. Or loses yet again.
Either way, she can't get more popular.
Some elan in the timing too.
Very French.

It seems too clever by half. LREM could limp back with a smaller seat number.

williamglenn said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

What Leon and others miss in their Europe will lurch to the right thesis is that it is authoritarianism they increasingly find attractive, whether of right, left or middle. A strongman to free us from crime and vanquish our enemies and enforce bike lanes.

Is it really though? Sure Orban misbehaves, but Tusk deposed the Polish authritarians democratically, which seems to suggest that they aren't really very authoritarian at all.

Reform and Farage spout incoherent right wing populism to the gullible, and I hold them in great contempt, but even I don't think them undemocratic. Indeed about the only policy I agree with them is the need to move to PR.

The odd thing is that much of what you think of as incoherent right wing populism is actually lifted straight from the New Labour policy book.

Ratters said:

Any read across of Le Pen doing very well in the first round of voting on 30 June and potential impact on the Reform vote? Or probably not given potential Reform voters aren't that interested in who France has elected to Parliament?

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Ghedebrav said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjllk8x353yo

Off topic. Interesting stuff on old Lowry interviews uncovered.

I’ve reappraised him recently; I’d mentally pigeonholed him as a bit tiresome and amateurish but actually there’s a lot to his work - and I feel the key to it was looking at it from the viewpoint of his having probably quite deep and chronic depression.

Beyond the factory/crowd scenes he is best known for, there is a lot of pretty weird and visionary and even near-abstract (his seascapes). Since experiencing a sustained depressive bout myself I found I could relate to his work so much more.

His studies of girls in chaste but preposterously tight/throttling dress take on a peculiar dimension when considering the absence of romance in his life.

I was fortunate enough to go to an exhibition of his work many years ago and was knocked out by the range, skill and profundity of his work. Anyone who just thinks of him as just a painter of northern industrial landscapes is seriously underating him.

I was in the latter category until recently but have happily reappraised since. Whether he is a genuinely major artist, I’m not sure - but he was certainly much more interesting than the million prints of ‘going to the match’ might leave you thinking.

I don’t think that naff ‘Matchstick Men’ song helped either.

The paintings of northern industrial landscapes are interesting, well executed, and have been adopted by us in the NW as emblems. But I don't think they're a celebration. Lowry seems to me appalled by the landscape and sees little humanity among the crowds. If this genuinely is the impression he's trying tp convey he does it very well.
As you say, though, he's a brilliant artist, and a much more rounded one than the paintings he's best known for would suggest.

This is my favoirite Lowry, showing he can do humanity too: https://www.theguardian.com/arts/pictures/image/0,,-1060329418596,00.html

dixiedean said:

williamglenn said:

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

TimS said:

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

The far right is going to have its day in the sun, though lack of internal coordination between the parties makes its administrative impact rather limited.

The other thing that stops them uniting into a powerful bloc is that different versions of them believe different things.

Put simply, there are truly nasty neo-nazis in suits, like the AfD and Sweden democrats, the successors to Hitler and Mussolini, and there are dozens of essentially Falangist parties, the successors to Franco. The current iteration of the RN in France, the PiS in Poland and Meloni in Italy are Falangists. At worst. Arguably just 19th century style authoritarians.

The AfD are the scariest. Worse than Trump, though less powerful.

The other divide is pro-Putinists vs the rest. Another where PiS and Meloni are on one side.

History tends to repeat itself and what happens on a small scale in the UK first (reformation and religious conflict, anti-royalist revolution, the rise of socialism) then manifests itself in a vastly more bloody way in Central Europe next. We did Brexit back in 2016, so they are due.

Is it not a category error to call any democratic politician a fascist/falangist/nazi given that the one thing they had in common was opposition to multi-party democracy?

Hitler came to power via a multiparty democratic system.

So did Tony Blair.

Yes, but Blair allowed further elections while Hitler did not.

I was just pointing out that participation in multiparty democracy doesn't prevent a party from being fascist/falangist/nazi.

Though I think those terms far too frequently used. RN isn't fascist or even falangist, just nativity and populist for example. Golden Dawn in Greece could be reasonably described as Facist.

From the Falangist programme:

Our State will be a totalitarian instrument to defend the integrity of the fatherland. All Spaniards will participate in this through their various family, municipal, and syndical roles. There shall be no participation in it by political parties. We shall implacably abolish the system of political parties and all of their consequences- inorganic suffrage, representation of clashing groups, and a Parliament of the type that is all too well known.

Needs a better translation methinks.

Benpointer said:

williamglenn said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

What Leon and others miss in their Europe will lurch to the right thesis is that it is authoritarianism they increasingly find attractive, whether of right, left or middle. A strongman to free us from crime and vanquish our enemies and enforce bike lanes.

Is it really though? Sure Orban misbehaves, but Tusk deposed the Polish authritarians democratically, which seems to suggest that they aren't really very authoritarian at all.

Reform and Farage spout incoherent right wing populism to the gullible, and I hold them in great contempt, but even I don't think them undemocratic. Indeed about the only policy I agree with them is the need to move to PR.

The odd thing is that much of what you think of as incoherent right wing populism is actually lifted straight from the New Labour policy book.

I look forward to your examples of that.

Benpointer said:

williamglenn said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

What Leon and others miss in their Europe will lurch to the right thesis is that it is authoritarianism they increasingly find attractive, whether of right, left or middle. A strongman to free us from crime and vanquish our enemies and enforce bike lanes.

Is it really though? Sure Orban misbehaves, but Tusk deposed the Polish authritarians democratically, which seems to suggest that they aren't really very authoritarian at all.

Reform and Farage spout incoherent right wing populism to the gullible, and I hold them in great contempt, but even I don't think them undemocratic. Indeed about the only policy I agree with them is the need to move to PR.

The odd thing is that much of what you think of as incoherent right wing populism is actually lifted straight from the New Labour policy book.

I look forward to your examples of that.

Casino_Royale said:

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

Malmesbury said:

darkage said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

As long as also accompanied by better rehabilitation inside given the vast majority of prisoners will eventually be released back into society

A liberal lefty has hacked into HY's account.

No not much different to what Justice Secretary Alex Chalk has said

The 20,000 prison places are what the conservatives have planned but not been able to deliver due to problems with the planning system. Labour are saying that they will circumvent this by issuing 'development consent orders' but these still have to go through a year plus long process of examination so not a quick route. The government could just 'call in' the planning applications submitted by the Ministry of Justice and approve them. Apparently the hold ups are something to do with badgers and retained EU rules about protected species.

The 20,000 are not enough, there are 87,000 prisoners in 80,000 places at present. Really they need something like 100,000 more prison places to start to meet public demand for longer sentences. At least having labour in power will hopefully stop the government opportunistically passing laws for longer sentences in the hope that the consequences will be passed on to the next government.

Idea - Train the prisoners in building trades. Then they can build prisons as part of their sentence reduction.

Badgers are thugs. If they were humans, they would be the shaven headed guy at the end of the bar who no one sits next to. With "Love" and "Hate" tattoos on their knuckles. Build the prisons round them.

We have some absurd rules around badgers, largely driven by misty-eyed sentiment.

Many wild life lovers haven't met the wild life in question.

Watching some of them cuddle a badger would be... interesting.

Same shit with foxes, and even newts.

Because we're a misanthropic nation we project our stilted emotions onto animals instead.

Ghedebrav said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Ghedebrav said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjllk8x353yo

Off topic. Interesting stuff on old Lowry interviews uncovered.

I’ve reappraised him recently; I’d mentally pigeonholed him as a bit tiresome and amateurish but actually there’s a lot to his work - and I feel the key to it was looking at it from the viewpoint of his having probably quite deep and chronic depression.

Beyond the factory/crowd scenes he is best known for, there is a lot of pretty weird and visionary and even near-abstract (his seascapes). Since experiencing a sustained depressive bout myself I found I could relate to his work so much more.

His studies of girls in chaste but preposterously tight/throttling dress take on a peculiar dimension when considering the absence of romance in his life.

I was fortunate enough to go to an exhibition of his work many years ago and was knocked out by the range, skill and profundity of his work. Anyone who just thinks of him as just a painter of northern industrial landscapes is seriously underating him.

I was in the latter category until recently but have happily reappraised since. Whether he is a genuinely major artist, I’m not sure - but he was certainly much more interesting than the million prints of ‘going to the match’ might leave you thinking.

I don’t think that naff ‘Matchstick Men’ song helped either.

The paintings of northern industrial landscapes are interesting, well executed, and have been adopted by us in the NW as emblems. But I don't think they're a celebration. Lowry seems to me appalled by the landscape and sees little humanity among the crowds. If this genuinely is the impression he's trying tp convey he does it very well.
As you say, though, he's a brilliant artist, and a much more rounded one than the paintings he's best known for would suggest.

This is my favoirite Lowry, showing he can do humanity too: https://www.theguardian.com/arts/pictures/image/0,,-1060329418596,00.html

The link isn’t working for me, but I know the one you mean.

His seascape here (which I snapped at the eponymous gallery in Salford Quays) is one that really struck me; I stood looking at it for ages. Something about the sea as oblivion, and oblivion itself being a release from the arduous mess of living. I don’t know whether it was me projecting onto the painting (I prefer to believe not) but it utterly held me.

pigeon said:

darkage said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

As long as also accompanied by better rehabilitation inside given the vast majority of prisoners will eventually be released back into society

A liberal lefty has hacked into HY's account.

No not much different to what Justice Secretary Alex Chalk has said

The 20,000 prison places are what the conservatives have planned but not been able to deliver due to problems with the planning system. Labour are saying that they will circumvent this by issuing 'development consent orders' but these still have to go through a year plus long process of examination so not a quick route. The government could just 'call in' the planning applications submitted by the Ministry of Justice and approve them. Apparently the hold ups are something to do with badgers and retained EU rules about protected species.

The 20,000 are not enough, there are 87,000 prisoners in 80,000 places at present. Really they need something like 100,000 more prison places to start to meet public demand for longer sentences. At least having labour in power will hopefully stop the government opportunistically passing laws for longer sentences in the hope that the consequences will be passed on to the next government.

If criminal justice were administered according to meet public demand then it would consist principally of tying convicts to poles, handing shotguns to victims or their families, and inviting them to enjoy some target practice.

But in all seriousness, mass scale incarceration does not make for a safer society. Ask an American.

Alanbrooke said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuartinromford said:

spudgfsh said:

Macron has just dissolved the french Parliament! election to take place around the same time as ours

Bonjour.

June 30th, which is commendably efficient.

Presumably it's an attempt to replay the "you really want the fash? Really?" gambit Sanchez used in Spain. Wonder how the UK and French campaigns interact?

What a miserable bastard.

This now means the the french side of my son's wedding on the 29th cant get smashed.

Why not? They have most of Sunday to vote.

French weddings pack up about 4 am and then they sleep the next day off.

DoubleCarpet said:

Alanbrooke said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuartinromford said:

spudgfsh said:

Macron has just dissolved the french Parliament! election to take place around the same time as ours

Bonjour.

June 30th, which is commendably efficient.

Presumably it's an attempt to replay the "you really want the fash? Really?" gambit Sanchez used in Spain. Wonder how the UK and French campaigns interact?

What a miserable bastard.

This now means the the french side of my son's wedding on the 29th cant get smashed.

Why not? They have most of Sunday to vote.

French weddings pack up about 4 am and then they sleep the next day off.

So you could have a 12-hour kip and still plenty of time to vote.

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

darkage said:

Someone posted government data on actual incomes pre and post tax. It is quite fascinating. A 50k wage puts you in the top 16% of earners, £100k in the top 4%. What this seems to demonstrate to me is that the salary expectations of graduates as envisaged by the student loan system is completely disconnected from reality. To even service the interest payments on a 70k loan you would need to be in the top 10% of earners.

Are we comparing apples with apples?

How are earners defined? Do they include those on pensions, for example, or only those of working age from 16-65?

Even if the latter in any society like ours you will have vast swathes of people earning 15k-30k in all sorts of semi-skilled/services jobs so I'd expect top-end graduate jobs to be a top segment of 20%.

It does beg the question why we aim for 50% graduates, though.

I don't think it's a coincidence that countries with more successful economies than Britain's have high rates of participation in tertiary education.

I mean, Britain could continue to be a backward second-rate economy with low productivity if you really want, and deciding not to educate British children and instead importing the educated people the economy requires saves you some spending on the education budget, but it's not an approach that any other country with aspirations follows.

Why is British culture so anti-education?

Gardenwalker said:

Ghedebrav said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjllk8x353yo

Off topic. Interesting stuff on old Lowry interviews uncovered.

I’ve reappraised him recently; I’d mentally pigeonholed him as a bit tiresome and amateurish but actually there’s a lot to his work - and I feel the key to it was looking at it from the viewpoint of his having probably quite deep and chronic depression.

Beyond the factory/crowd scenes he is best known for, there is a lot of pretty weird and visionary and even near-abstract (his seascapes). Since experiencing a sustained depressive bout myself I found I could relate to his work so much more.

His studies of girls in chaste but preposterously tight/throttling dress take on a peculiar dimension when considering the absence of romance in his life.

The 2013 exhibition at Tate Britain was very good, looking at his work through the theme of industrial alienation and comparing with similarly estranged works by Van Gogh and Utrillo.

The Marxist husband-and-wife art historians, TJ Clark and Anne Wagner did a great job trying to rescue him from the generally received opinion of Lowry as a middle-brow Sunday painter.