Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
Yes, you'd think it would appeal to traditionalists: use existing counties and boroughs as constituencies with 3-5 MPs each. Very few changes needed, and it would avoid the worst of the "Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch South"-type names that we have today.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
Probably given to the Mail by their ambitious new journalist Boris Johnson who just happens to have a full page article today
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
Not just them, their children too who are counting on inheriting those assets and in any case they can't cover indefinite higher and higher spending anyway
All the more reason to increase IHT and other capital taxes to pay for the transition period, some would say.
It's not as if they worked for those assets, especially with house price inflation so regionally uneven.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
It can go on until the point when the entire country is owned by foreigners.
Then it comes to a hard stop.
In net terms we passed that point a while ago. Its what happens when you ignore a serious deficit for more than 20 years.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
I don't know if "left leaning" applies to me (centrist globalist liberal according to the tribes thing) but yes. If Con + Ref got over 50% of the vote and could stomach working together, then that's a deal. Yeah, it'd be a gross government from my point of view, but it would be a reflection of the country's wishes.
If Tory + Reform was over 50% then probably under FPTP we’d be labouring under a huge Tory majority. So yes, PR.
I would suggest that PR wound realign a lot of parties and Labour, the Tories, and the Liberals would split. My guess is Reform would tend to get kept out by a Thatcherite/Cameroon/Cleggite coalition. The Cleggites would always be in power as they’d also help Labour keep out the Corbynites.
The Thatcherites would want to form a government with Reform first and might merge with them. The Cameroons and Cleggites would probably eventually merge. The social democrat wing of the LDs would stay distinct but deal with Labour and the Greens first
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
I listened to Any Questions and Any Answers today and Paul Johnson was making this very point. Any Answeres was all DDay initially but then several callers on the subject of finances. So it seems at least someone is taking notice, even if not mainstream.
Anyone who thinks there is scope for major tax cuts is delusional, or confident they won't be in government in a months time.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
But is it? The rich old people are used to getting their own way. It looks like that generation are going to lose an Election for the first time in their adult lives. There'll be much wailing and gnashing of false teeth. But an incoming government won't be beholden to their votes. It's why I want as big a Labour majority as possible. Starmer can afford then to be brave. I have no great expectations he will. But then that's on him and we can hold him to account.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
Not just them, their children too who are counting on inheriting those assets and in any case they can't cover indefinite higher and higher spending anyway
In that case they can go without the triple lock and can put up with waiting a decade to get their dodgy joints replaced. But they won't tolerate that either.
The grey vote is entitled, and cakeist, and very large. So we are stuck, circling the plughole.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
I listened to Any Questions and Any Answers today and Paul Johnson was making this very point. Any Answeres was all DDay initially but then several callers on the subject of finances. So it seems at least someone is taking notice, even if not mainstream.
Anyone who thinks there is scope for major tax cuts is delusional, or confident they won't be in government in a months time.
Exactly why the Tories can promise anything they like.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
If Sunak resigned as PM the King would take his advice on his successor which, given there's a Tory government already in place as the King's ministers, would be a Tory until such time as the lay of the land of the new HoC was clear post election.
Whereupon another resignation and appointment might take place.
Constitutionally it is not a “Tory” Government. That’s a convenient shorthand based on the fact that prime ministers are appointed based on their ability to command confidence in the House of Commons. The label we attached, for convenience, to that majority in the recent Parliament was the “Conservative” or “Tory” party. At the moment the PM is in place as a result of the outcome of the last election. There is no mechanism or precedent for a party that does not (by definition) command such confidence.
The Monarch’s role in appointing a prime minister is one of the remaining prerogative powers. The majority of those powers are exercised on his behalf by ministers, but the power to appoint prime ministers remains with the King. In the absence of any majority in the Commons, or any members of the Commons, appointing a member of one party over any other would be a nakedly political decision taken, as you accept, during an election campaign for the benefit of one party. The late Queen would never have done that and I sure as hell hope the current King wouldn’t either.
If Sunak resigned as PM all bets are off until the election. Charles may fancy doing it himself for a few weeks.
No, the Monarch would take the least contentious decision which would be to appoint a member of the existing administration and not create a change where no mandate existed.
If a new HoC was elected that was different he would no longer have its confidence, so would resign, just as Sunak would have done in a month's time anyway.
No way. The King appointing a PM nominated to help the Tories win votes DURING an election campaign? Least contentious? That’s as contentious as it comes, it could kill the both Tory Party and the Monarchy as institutions.
Rubbish, the King appoints the PM who commands the support of the majority of MPs which at the moment is still the Tories. Most likely he would be appointing PM Starmer in a few weeks anyway.
In the unlikely scenario Sunak did resign it would only be as Tory leader anyway, Parliament is not sitting and he would stay caretaker PM until election day so no need for the King to be involved
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Wrong question, since Tory sources have been repeatedly blindsided by Rishi who seems to be consulting no-one outside a very small team, even assuming he speaks to them.
We could speculate all night I suppose, but even from a quick preliminary scout about it does look as if some members of Sunak's brand of innermost circle that you're describing might also be known to Philip Blond.
On your question of why, if he is considering this, I think it would to be partly to protect his reputation and not receive all the blame.
I don't believe this notion of an extinction level event. Although it could well be on the cards if Sunak exits mid campaign.
Is there some extraordinary mechanism whereby Rishi could compel Chas to pull the 4th July election and reconvene Parliament under a new PM until 23rd January?
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
In the short term we can raise that level of tax from assets but the growth and investment consequences of that would be seriously detrimental. Why would any foreigner want to invest in a country where they are excessively taxed? We currently need about £80bn a year of foreign investment to, well, not really balance the books but offset the deficit with asset sales to foreigners. If we don't get that Sterling collapses.
We need to stop kidding ourselves that we deserve a higher standard of living than we actually earn.
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Wrong question, since Tory sources have been repeatedly blindsided by Rishi who seems to be consulting no-one outside a very small team, even assuming he speaks to them.
We could speculate all night I suppose, but even from a quick preliminary scout about it does look as if some members of Sunak's brand of innermost circle that you're describing might also be known to Philip Blond.
On your question of why, if he is considering this, I think it would to be partly to protect his reputation and not receive all the blame.
I don't believe this notion of an extinction level event. It could well be on the cards if Sunak exits mid campaign.
Is there some extraordinary mechanism whereby Rishi could compel Chas to pull the 4th July election and reconvene Parliament under a new PM until 23rd January?
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Wrong question, since Tory sources have been repeatedly blindsided by Rishi who seems to be consulting no-one outside a very small team, even assuming he speaks to them.
We could speculate all night I suppose, but even from a quick preliminary scout about it does look as if some members of Sunak's brand of innermost circle that you're describing might also be known to Philip Blond.
On your question of why, if he is considering this, I think it would to be partly to protect his reputation and not receive all the blame.
I don't believe this notion of an extinction level event. It could well be on the cards if Sunak exits mid campaign.
Is there some extraordinary mechanism whereby Rishi could compel Chas to pull the 4th July election and reconvene Parliament under a new PM until 23rd January?
But none of the MPs are MPs any more. Nio public mandate. That would mean KCIII appointed every single member of the HoC. Can't see that precedent working, can you?
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
If Sunak resigned as PM the King would take his advice on his successor which, given there's a Tory government already in place as the King's ministers, would be a Tory until such time as the lay of the land of the new HoC was clear post election.
Whereupon another resignation and appointment might take place.
Constitutionally it is not a “Tory” Government. That’s a convenient shorthand based on the fact that prime ministers are appointed based on their ability to command confidence in the House of Commons. The label we attached, for convenience, to that majority in the recent Parliament was the “Conservative” or “Tory” party. At the moment the PM is in place as a result of the outcome of the last election. There is no mechanism or precedent for a party that does not (by definition) command such confidence.
The Monarch’s role in appointing a prime minister is one of the remaining prerogative powers. The majority of those powers are exercised on his behalf by ministers, but the power to appoint prime ministers remains with the King. In the absence of any majority in the Commons, or any members of the Commons, appointing a member of one party over any other would be a nakedly political decision taken, as you accept, during an election campaign for the benefit of one party. The late Queen would never have done that and I sure as hell hope the current King wouldn’t either.
If Sunak resigned as PM all bets are off until the election. Charles may fancy doing it himself for a few weeks.
No, the Monarch would take the least contentious decision which would be to appoint a member of the existing administration and not create a change where no mandate existed.
If a new HoC was elected that was different he would no longer have its confidence, so would resign, just as Sunak would have done in a month's time anyway.
No way. The King appointing a PM nominated to help the Tories win votes DURING an election campaign? Least contentious? That’s as contentious as it comes, it could kill the both Tory Party and the Monarchy as institutions.
Rubbish, the King appoints the PM who commands the support of the majority of MPs which at the moment is still the Tories. Most likely he would be appointing PM Starmer in a few weeks anyway.
In the unlikely scenario Sunak did resign it would only be as Tory leader anyway, Parliament is not sitting and he would stay caretaker PM until election day so no need for the King to be involved
Unfortunately that first claim does not apply now. Legally there are no MPs. There are still ministers but all MPs ceased to be MPs at dissolution. So your basic premise is incorrect.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
If Sunak resigned as PM the King would take his advice on his successor which, given there's a Tory government already in place as the King's ministers, would be a Tory until such time as the lay of the land of the new HoC was clear post election.
Whereupon another resignation and appointment might take place.
Constitutionally it is not a “Tory” Government. That’s a convenient shorthand based on the fact that prime ministers are appointed based on their ability to command confidence in the House of Commons. The label we attached, for convenience, to that majority in the recent Parliament was the “Conservative” or “Tory” party. At the moment the PM is in place as a result of the outcome of the last election. There is no mechanism or precedent for a party that does not (by definition) command such confidence.
The Monarch’s role in appointing a prime minister is one of the remaining prerogative powers. The majority of those powers are exercised on his behalf by ministers, but the power to appoint prime ministers remains with the King. In the absence of any majority in the Commons, or any members of the Commons, appointing a member of one party over any other would be a nakedly political decision taken, as you accept, during an election campaign for the benefit of one party. The late Queen would never have done that and I sure as hell hope the current King wouldn’t either.
If Sunak resigned as PM all bets are off until the election. Charles may fancy doing it himself for a few weeks.
No, the Monarch would take the least contentious decision which would be to appoint a member of the existing administration and not create a change where no mandate existed.
If a new HoC was elected that was different he would no longer have its confidence, so would resign, just as Sunak would have done in a month's time anyway.
No way. The King appointing a PM nominated to help the Tories win votes DURING an election campaign? Least contentious? That’s as contentious as it comes, it could kill the both Tory Party and the Monarchy as institutions.
Rubbish, the King appoints the PM who commands the support of the majority of MPs which at the moment is still the Tories. Most likely he would be appointing PM Starmer in a few weeks anyway.
In the unlikely scenario Sunak did resign it would only be as Tory leader anyway, Parliament is not sitting and he would stay caretaker PM until election day so no need for the King to be involved
There aren't any MPs until the election takes place.
Some polls say the Tories are 12 points ahead of ReFuk, others say they're tied. Clear as mud.
They are closest with Redfield and YouGov followed by Techne and WeThink YouGov are the friendliest generally to reform and have been all along. What Redfield and Techne have in common is they both consistently show Tories losing the over 65 to Lab by 10 points or so......
After Disaster Day on Thursday that figure is quite plausible.
The over 65s don't like the sound of the end of the NHS as proposed by Farage.
They are too distracted and distasteful of the government to notice.
Yet at least some geezers NOT "too distracted" to air their concerns re: NG vs NHS with Dr. Foxy.
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Wrong question, since Tory sources have been repeatedly blindsided by Rishi who seems to be consulting no-one outside a very small team, even assuming he speaks to them.
We could speculate all night I suppose, but even from a quick preliminary scout about it does look as if some members of Sunak's brand of innermost circle that you're describing might also be known to Philip Blond.
On your question of why, if he is considering this, I think it would to be partly to protect his reputation and not receive all the blame.
I don't believe this notion of an extinction level event. It could well be on the cards if Sunak exits mid campaign.
Is there some extraordinary mechanism whereby Rishi could compel Chas to pull the 4th July election and reconvene Parliament under a new PM until 23rd January?
No, parliament is dissolved, the former MPs may no longer enter the Palace of Westminster and the date of a new parliament has been announced.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
If Sunak resigned as PM the King would take his advice on his successor which, given there's a Tory government already in place as the King's ministers, would be a Tory until such time as the lay of the land of the new HoC was clear post election.
Whereupon another resignation and appointment might take place.
Constitutionally it is not a “Tory” Government. That’s a convenient shorthand based on the fact that prime ministers are appointed based on their ability to command confidence in the House of Commons. The label we attached, for convenience, to that majority in the recent Parliament was the “Conservative” or “Tory” party. At the moment the PM is in place as a result of the outcome of the last election. There is no mechanism or precedent for a party that does not (by definition) command such confidence.
The Monarch’s role in appointing a prime minister is one of the remaining prerogative powers. The majority of those powers are exercised on his behalf by ministers, but the power to appoint prime ministers remains with the King. In the absence of any majority in the Commons, or any members of the Commons, appointing a member of one party over any other would be a nakedly political decision taken, as you accept, during an election campaign for the benefit of one party. The late Queen would never have done that and I sure as hell hope the current King wouldn’t either.
If Sunak resigned as PM all bets are off until the election. Charles may fancy doing it himself for a few weeks.
No, the Monarch would take the least contentious decision which would be to appoint a member of the existing administration and not create a change where no mandate existed.
If a new HoC was elected that was different he would no longer have its confidence, so would resign, just as Sunak would have done in a month's time anyway.
No way. The King appointing a PM nominated to help the Tories win votes DURING an election campaign? Least contentious? That’s as contentious as it comes, it could kill the both Tory Party and the Monarchy as institutions.
Rubbish, the King appoints the PM who commands the support of the majority of MPs which at the moment is still the Tories. Most likely he would be appointing PM Starmer in a few weeks anyway.
In the unlikely scenario Sunak did resign it would only be as Tory leader anyway, Parliament is not sitting and he would stay caretaker PM until election day so no need for the King to be involved
Unfortunately that first claim does not apply now. Legally there are no MPs. There are still ministers but all MPs ceased to be MPs at dissolution. So your basic premise is incorrect.
Must be some mistake surely; a guiding principle of PB is that HY is *never* wrong.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
Some counties would have just one seat.
Rutland will feel abolished.
Rutland is already combined with Stamford Lincs, and a good sized chunk of East Leics.
Any poll showing CON 25+ is good for them at the moment. Maybe MAYBE a chance to move to late 20s by the end
At this point, we remember once again that Con has never polled sub-30% at a GE in their whole history. They scrape that, then it's 1997 redux rather than ELE, and they live to fight another day.
OTOH Sunak is a vastly inferior politician than Major, starting from a much worse position, of course.
What is ELE please?
"Extinction Level Event". An event so devastating it makes the population in question non-sustainable. Like the dinosaur-killing rock. Coined and popularised in the Film "Deep Impact" (1998)
Much under appreciated film. Was buried by the Bruce Willis rival action asteroid vehicle Armageddon. Which was hero nonsense. Both driven by Comet Hale Bopp. Which was at it's peak as I walked the Annapurna Trail in Nepal. Concentrated far more on the political, emotional and social effects of a possible catastrophic impact. Large part of the early story revolves around a reporter who's got wind of politicians retiring to spend more time with their families because of "Ellie". And thinks they are on to a massive sex scandal. ELE = extinction level event.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
In the short term we can raise that level of tax from assets but the growth and investment consequences of that would be seriously detrimental. Why would any foreigner want to invest in a country where they are excessively taxed? We currently need about £80bn a year of foreign investment to, well, not really balance the books but offset the deficit with asset sales to foreigners. If we don't get that Sterling collapses.
We need to stop kidding ourselves that we deserve a higher standard of living than we actually earn.
Some Monarchs spent like crazy beyond their means, such as Henry VIII, while others did a lot better, albeit in part by being inventive about how they raised money, such as Henry VIII.
The country as a whole definitely has an air of Henry VIII about its attitude, but leaving the EU didn't bring the riches that the dissolution of the monasteries brought after the break with Rome.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
In the short term we can raise that level of tax from assets but the growth and investment consequences of that would be seriously detrimental. Why would any foreigner want to invest in a country where they are excessively taxed? We currently need about £80bn a year of foreign investment to, well, not really balance the books but offset the deficit with asset sales to foreigners. If we don't get that Sterling collapses.
We need to stop kidding ourselves that we deserve a higher standard of living than we actually earn.
In theory, you tax residential property and inheritances. Vast sums available, little or nothing to do with business investment, inbound or otherwise.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
If Sunak resigned as PM the King would take his advice on his successor which, given there's a Tory government already in place as the King's ministers, would be a Tory until such time as the lay of the land of the new HoC was clear post election.
Whereupon another resignation and appointment might take place.
Constitutionally it is not a “Tory” Government. That’s a convenient shorthand based on the fact that prime ministers are appointed based on their ability to command confidence in the House of Commons. The label we attached, for convenience, to that majority in the recent Parliament was the “Conservative” or “Tory” party. At the moment the PM is in place as a result of the outcome of the last election. There is no mechanism or precedent for a party that does not (by definition) command such confidence.
The Monarch’s role in appointing a prime minister is one of the remaining prerogative powers. The majority of those powers are exercised on his behalf by ministers, but the power to appoint prime ministers remains with the King. In the absence of any majority in the Commons, or any members of the Commons, appointing a member of one party over any other would be a nakedly political decision taken, as you accept, during an election campaign for the benefit of one party. The late Queen would never have done that and I sure as hell hope the current King wouldn’t either.
If Sunak resigned as PM all bets are off until the election. Charles may fancy doing it himself for a few weeks.
No, the Monarch would take the least contentious decision which would be to appoint a member of the existing administration and not create a change where no mandate existed.
If a new HoC was elected that was different he would no longer have its confidence, so would resign, just as Sunak would have done in a month's time anyway.
No way. The King appointing a PM nominated to help the Tories win votes DURING an election campaign? Least contentious? That’s as contentious as it comes, it could kill the both Tory Party and the Monarchy as institutions.
Rubbish, the King appoints the PM who commands the support of the majority of MPs which at the moment is still the Tories. Most likely he would be appointing PM Starmer in a few weeks anyway.
In the unlikely scenario Sunak did resign it would only be as Tory leader anyway, Parliament is not sitting and he would stay caretaker PM until election day so no need for the King to be involved
Unfortunately that first claim does not apply now. Legally there are no MPs. There are still ministers but all MPs ceased to be MPs at dissolution. So your basic premise is incorrect.
Must be some mistake surely; a guiding principle of PB is that HY is *never* wrong.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
But is it? The rich old people are used to getting their own way. It looks like that generation are going to lose an Election for the first time in their adult lives. There'll be much wailing and gnashing of false teeth. But an incoming government won't be beholden to their votes. It's why I want as big a Labour majority as possible. Starmer can afford then to be brave. I have no great expectations he will. But then that's on him and we can hold him to account.
True, but like you say he'll probably bottle it.
If there's a Labour landslide it'll be down principally to the grey vote sitting on their hands or splitting to his and other parties. They have a screaming strop and all go back to the Tories again and he's a one-term PM.
The system is broke, but the vested interests that back it are too numerous to be defied.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
I listened to Any Questions and Any Answers today and Paul Johnson was making this very point. Any Answeres was all DDay initially but then several callers on the subject of finances. So it seems at least someone is taking notice, even if not mainstream.
Anyone who thinks there is scope for major tax cuts is delusional, or confident they won't be in government in a months time.
So Farage is a damp squib, that’s what the polls seem to say. Someone needs to kick Sunak out of his depression.
I think we need to wait a little longer for the D day effect
It’s interesting that Daily Mail of all things has a leading story predicting a Labour majority in the 400s. They normally hide this stuff.
That Labour is going to get a crushing majority cannot be hidden! The question now is how big? Personally I don't care as long as the useless Tories are destroyed.
If it’s in the Mail that means it’s briefed by the Tories. They are playing the Australia tactic. And it may work.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
If Sunak resigned as PM the King would take his advice on his successor which, given there's a Tory government already in place as the King's ministers, would be a Tory until such time as the lay of the land of the new HoC was clear post election.
Whereupon another resignation and appointment might take place.
Constitutionally it is not a “Tory” Government. That’s a convenient shorthand based on the fact that prime ministers are appointed based on their ability to command confidence in the House of Commons. The label we attached, for convenience, to that majority in the recent Parliament was the “Conservative” or “Tory” party. At the moment the PM is in place as a result of the outcome of the last election. There is no mechanism or precedent for a party that does not (by definition) command such confidence.
The Monarch’s role in appointing a prime minister is one of the remaining prerogative powers. The majority of those powers are exercised on his behalf by ministers, but the power to appoint prime ministers remains with the King. In the absence of any majority in the Commons, or any members of the Commons, appointing a member of one party over any other would be a nakedly political decision taken, as you accept, during an election campaign for the benefit of one party. The late Queen would never have done that and I sure as hell hope the current King wouldn’t either.
If Sunak resigned as PM all bets are off until the election. Charles may fancy doing it himself for a few weeks.
No, the Monarch would take the least contentious decision which would be to appoint a member of the existing administration and not create a change where no mandate existed.
If a new HoC was elected that was different he would no longer have its confidence, so would resign, just as Sunak would have done in a month's time anyway.
No way. The King appointing a PM nominated to help the Tories win votes DURING an election campaign? Least contentious? That’s as contentious as it comes, it could kill the both Tory Party and the Monarchy as institutions.
Rubbish, the King appoints the PM who commands the support of the majority of MPs which at the moment is still the Tories. Most likely he would be appointing PM Starmer in a few weeks anyway.
In the unlikely scenario Sunak did resign it would only be as Tory leader anyway, Parliament is not sitting and he would stay caretaker PM until election day so no need for the King to be involved
There are no MPs “at the moment”. So there is no majority. Other than that, C+.
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
I don't know if "left leaning" applies to me (centrist globalist liberal according to the tribes thing) but yes. If Con + Ref got over 50% of the vote and could stomach working together, then that's a deal. Yeah, it'd be a gross government from my point of view, but it would be a reflection of the country's wishes.
If Tory + Reform was over 50% then probably under FPTP we’d be labouring under a huge Tory majority. So yes, PR.
I would suggest that PR wound realign a lot of parties and Labour, the Tories, and the Liberals would split. My guess is Reform would tend to get kept out by a Thatcherite/Cameroon/Cleggite coalition. The Cleggites would always be in power as they’d also help Labour keep out the Corbynites.
The Thatcherites would want to form a government with Reform first and might merge with them. The Cameroons and Cleggites would probably eventually merge. The social democrat wing of the LDs would stay distinct but deal with Labour and the Greens first
Changes in electoral systems rarely have much immediate impact on parties. NZ switched to PR, but there wasn't any big realignment of the parties. The organisational momentum keeps things continuing as they were.
It's a story from 1995 about a truly remarkable black student at Harvard whose skills were such he was called the anointed one. His name was Alvin L Bragg and he has recently come to public attention for the successful prosecution of one Donald J Trump.
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
Is that not much the same as wondering if Boomers ever read Punch, built a model of a Maxim gun, or watched silent newsreels about Lord Roberts...?
No, because the things I mentioned were standard activities of any nice, middle class Gen X (or boomer) boy when growing up.
And I doubt anyone with those childhood memories would have made the mistake Sunak did.
I sometimes read Punch, had an Airfix Russian Infantry set which had Maxim gun crews, and watched the Great War series on TV with lots of silent newsreels ...
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
He doesn’t give the appearance of a man with a functioning brain.
An excellent point.
He's such a crap constituency MP that he doesn't even play that card either. Most of the rest of them shout about their particular necks of the woods and its achievements. Do you think he has heard of Catterick, or has even the vaguest awareness of what it is?
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
Nor indeed something utterly bizarrely left field. Corbyn had manhole covers. Heath yacht racing. Blair had been in crap bands. Gordon Brown lost an eye playing rugby. Cameron has a disabled child. Starmer bought a field for donkeys. Major was an Oval member whose Dad was a trapeze artist and his brother a garden gnome guy. Thatcher designed soft ice cream. Churchill. Well there's loads, but amateur bricklayer? All of these are within the parameters of the kind of really quirky stuff ordinary people have and like to do. It seems to be likes to watch Southampton FC and drinks coke. Well yes. People do that. But what is interesting about him? What's the hook that if you met him in the Pub, you'd remember him by?
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
He doesn’t give the appearance of a man with a functioning brain.
An excellent point.
He's such a crap constituency MP that he doesn't even play that card either. Most of the rest of them shout about their particular necks of the woods and its achievements. Do you think he has heard of Catterick, or has even the vaguest awareness of what it is?
Does he even know where his constituency is located?
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
But is it? The rich old people are used to getting their own way. It looks like that generation are going to lose an Election for the first time in their adult lives. There'll be much wailing and gnashing of false teeth. But an incoming government won't be beholden to their votes. It's why I want as big a Labour majority as possible. Starmer can afford then to be brave. I have no great expectations he will. But then that's on him and we can hold him to account.
True, but like you say he'll probably bottle it.
If there's a Labour landslide it'll be down principally to the grey vote sitting on their hands or splitting to his and other parties. They have a screaming strop and all go back to the Tories again and he's a one-term PM.
The system is broke, but the vested interests that back it are too numerous to be defied.
Plughole.
Yes, but. Five years later there's considerably fewer of them. And a whole new cohort who could have benefitted. I don't hold out much hope. But it isn't impossible with will.
Wouldn't be better to have older comments on top and newer ones at the bottom?
That’s how it is on the Vanilla site - for me anyway. It’s the other way round on the main site - vf.politicalbetting.com vs plain politicalbetting.com
Tim Montgomerie to produce a list of traditional Conservative MPs and Reform candidates worthy enough for conservatives to supprt
'SOME NEWS AND AN INVITATION 🚨🚨 Last week I confirmed I’d be voting for my local Tory MP John Glen because I see him as a model of duty, competence and a very traditional English sense of public service. In recent weeks eg he gripped the contaminated blood scandal like noone before him had done. But this week I also said I said I’d vote for Nigel Farage if I lived in Clacton because my party needs reminding of its once core beliefs on border control, law and order, over-taxation and home ownership. So, here’s the thing… Encouraged by a couple of people with deeper pockets than me I’m actively exploring putting together a list of (1) good, serious Tory MPs who don’t deserve to be punished because of bad decisions by a soon-to-disappear failed party leadership and (2) an identification of those standing for Reform (and perhaps even one or two eg SDP candidates) who (i) might easily have been made candidates by Thatcher and Major’s rules-based Tory HQ and/or (ii) any stand-outs who know politics is broken, would enrich the backbenches with independent thinking and are rightly appalled at the too many barely-conservative-in-any-way careerists who bedlock the Tory benches (but were fast-tracked and protected by the unaccountable and incestuous candidates matesocracy in the contemporary Tory HQ). This ‘voter advisory list’ (if it happens at all) will only cover seats where the public record and quality of sources provides more than titbits and then will only be advisory. It will be info rather than commandments! And if the team I’m exploring building is divided on any head-to-head battles we’ll admit as much. If you can help me build a team capable of delivering this (by offering money, knowledge, social media skills or simple good counsel etc please DM me). Your responses over the next 72 hours will determine whether or not I can see a path to building something that could CREDIBLY help right-minded, non-.partisan voters navigate this messy election… or not. So… I’ll press go on Wednesday morning and start building possibly a first component of an inevitable unite-the-right movement or I’ll put this draft plan in recycling and go to the pub for a long session.' https://x.com/montie/status/1799535993361408297
There is video purportedly showing a Ukrainian UAV hitting Mozdok airbase in North Ossetia, supposedly used by Russian strategic bombers. This is interesting for several reasons.
Firstly, the airbase is 800km from the front lines, so it's a relatively deep strike. Secondly, if Ukraine can start to do the same sort of damage to Russian strategic aviation that they've done to the Black Sea Fleet, then that will have consequences.
But must interesting us the UAV used. It looks like it is, again, simply a light aircraft, carrying a large bomb, with remote guidance installed. It's really quite something that Russia is still having trouble with what is a relatively crude form of attack.
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
He doesn’t give the appearance of a man with a functioning brain.
An excellent point.
He's such a crap constituency MP that he doesn't even play that card either. Most of the rest of them shout about their particular necks of the woods and its achievements. Do you think he has heard of Catterick, or has even the vaguest awareness of what it is?
Does he even know where his constituency is located?
I don't get it. Yorkshire MPs never stop bloody banging on about YORKSHIRE. He has the air of a man who has never troubled Betty's Tea Room.
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
Nor indeed something utterly bizarrely left field. Corbyn had manhole covers. Heath yacht racing. Blair had been in crap bands. Gordon Brown lost an eye playing rugby. Cameron has a disabled child. Starmer bought a field for donkeys. Major was an Oval member whose Dad was a trapeze artist and his brother a garden gnome guy. Thatcher designed soft ice cream. Churchill. Well there's loads, but amateur bricklayer? All of these are within the parameters of the kind of really quirky stuff ordinary people have and like to do. It seems to be likes to watch Southampton FC and drinks coke. Well yes. People do that. But what is interesting about him? What's the hook that if you met him in the Pub, you'd remember him by?
Rishi Sunak combines supreme bad judgement, with sublime incompetence to lead. The greatest political idiot of our - or perhaps any other - day.
CCHQ and Number 10 SpAds could use a look too. With no special knowledge or even any research, I am inclined to wonder if Boris clearing out non-believers and bringing in his Vote Leave mates and Cummings losing a power struggle with the future Mrs Boris, followed by Truss's clear-out, followed by Rishi's mate from school, all combined to remove any semblance of political judgement from the building.
@DeltapollUK 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 25 points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 21% (-4) Lab 46% (-2) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 12% (+3) SNP 4% (+2) Green 5% (+1) Other 2% (-1) Fieldwork: 6th - 8th June 2024 Sample: 2,010 GB adults (Changes from 31st May - 3rd June 2024)
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
Is that not much the same as wondering if Boomers ever read Punch, built a model of a Maxim gun, or watched silent newsreels about Lord Roberts...?
No, because the things I mentioned were standard activities of any nice, middle class Gen X (or boomer) boy when growing up.
And I doubt anyone with those childhood memories would have made the mistake Sunak did.
I sometimes read Punch, had an Airfix Russian Infantry set which had Maxim gun crews, and watched the Great War series on TV with lots of silent newsreels ...
I'm at the bottom end of the millennial age range, and flicked through Edwardian-era Punch and watched the Great War as a teenager, but I'd hardly claim to be in any way normal!
I don't think it's fair to criticise Rishi for being too young to be a WW2 obsessive. He's 44 years old, so most people in the UK are younger than him. SKS is likely to be the last PM who's even heard of the Commando comics...
Rishi Sunak combines supreme bad judgement, with sublime incompetence to lead. The greatest political idiot of our - or perhaps any other - day.
CCHQ and Number 10 SpAds could use a look too. With no special knowledge or even any research, I am inclined to wonder if Boris clearing out non-believers and bringing in his Vote Leave mates and Cummings losing a power struggle with the future Mrs Boris, followed by Truss's clear-out, followed by Rishi's mate from school, all combined to remove any semblance of political judgement from the building.
Given that in May 2020 they were organising 'bring your own booze' parties by email I'm doubtful there was any semblance of political judgement to lose.
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
Is that not much the same as wondering if Boomers ever read Punch, built a model of a Maxim gun, or watched silent newsreels about Lord Roberts...?
No, because the things I mentioned were standard activities of any nice, middle class Gen X (or boomer) boy when growing up.
And I doubt anyone with those childhood memories would have made the mistake Sunak did.
I sometimes read Punch, had an Airfix Russian Infantry set which had Maxim gun crews, and watched the Great War series on TV with lots of silent newsreels ...
I'm at the bottom end of the millennial age range, and flicked through Edwardian-era Punch and watched the Great War as a teenager, but I'd hardly claim to be in any way normal!
I don't think it's fair to criticise Rishi for being too young to be a WW2 obsessive. He's 44 years old, so most people in the UK are younger than him. SKS is likely to be the last PM who's even heard of the Commando comics...
I'll leave it to the OP to say what she/he meant, but for my part I think it's a fair observation - not a criticism either way.
Rishi Sunak combines supreme bad judgement, with sublime incompetence to lead. The greatest political idiot of our - or perhaps any other - day.
CCHQ and Number 10 SpAds could use a look too. With no special knowledge or even any research, I am inclined to wonder if Boris clearing out non-believers and bringing in his Vote Leave mates and Cummings losing a power struggle with the future Mrs Boris, followed by Truss's clear-out, followed by Rishi's mate from school, all combined to remove any semblance of political judgement from the building.
None seems capable of more than purely animal functions.
Tim Montgomerie to produce a list of traditional Conservative MPs and Reform candidates worthy enough for conservatives to supprt
'SOME NEWS AND AN INVITATION 🚨🚨 Last week I confirmed I’d be voting for my local Tory MP John Glen because I see him as a model of duty, competence and a very traditional English sense of public service. In recent weeks eg he gripped the contaminated blood scandal like noone before him had done. But this week I also said I said I’d vote for Nigel Farage if I lived in Clacton because my party needs reminding of its once core beliefs on border control, law and order, over-taxation and home ownership. So, here’s the thing… Encouraged by a couple of people with deeper pockets than me I’m actively exploring putting together a list of (1) good, serious Tory MPs who don’t deserve to be punished because of bad decisions by a soon-to-disappear failed party leadership and (2) an identification of those standing for Reform (and perhaps even one or two eg SDP candidates) who (i) might easily have been made candidates by Thatcher and Major’s rules-based Tory HQ and/or (ii) any stand-outs who know politics is broken, would enrich the backbenches with independent thinking and are rightly appalled at the too many barely-conservative-in-any-way careerists who bedlock the Tory benches (but were fast-tracked and protected by the unaccountable and incestuous candidates matesocracy in the contemporary Tory HQ). This ‘voter advisory list’ (if it happens at all) will only cover seats where the public record and quality of sources provides more than titbits and then will only be advisory. It will be info rather than commandments! And if the team I’m exploring building is divided on any head-to-head battles we’ll admit as much. If you can help me build a team capable of delivering this (by offering money, knowledge, social media skills or simple good counsel etc please DM me). Your responses over the next 72 hours will determine whether or not I can see a path to building something that could CREDIBLY help right-minded, non-.partisan voters navigate this messy election… or not. So… I’ll press go on Wednesday morning and start building possibly a first component of an inevitable unite-the-right movement or I’ll put this draft plan in recycling and go to the pub for a long session.' https://x.com/montie/status/1799535993361408297
Trying to lay the grounds for the seemingly inevitable lurch to the populist-fantasist hard right.
I suppose that the only thing stopping that is the scale of the drubbing, and whether there's a large enough cohort of Reform-sympathising Tory MPs in what's left of the Parliamentary party to get a candidate onto the membership ballot (in which case, said candidate will walk it against a moderate.)
A very heavy defeat would probably wipe out all the Red Wall gains and leave the rump Tory Commons contingent looking a lot more like the Liberal Democrats in terms of representation: overwhelmingly rural, mainly Southern English, with a handful of Scots. Are enough of that battered group of survivors going to allow the loony membership the opportunity to go full fat Faragiste for it to happen? Answers on a postcard.
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
I'd want PR on a point of principle. It is then up to the voters to decide what to do with real democracy.
The only argument against PR is continuity. We’ve been FPTP for centuries so why change. On any logical understanding of democracy PR of some sort is a no brainer.
And multi member constituencies under STV preserve the local MP link while protecting you from the bad luck of a shit one. Imagine if you were a resident of Clacton or South West Norfolk after the next election and needed to talk to your MP about something like the local hospital.
Its not the only argument against pr please dont pretend it is...now dont disagree fptp is perfect but here is the difference
fptp = here is what we are going to do vote for us Pr = vote for us then we will tell you what you voted for
@DeltapollUK 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 25 points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 21% (-4) Lab 46% (-2) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 12% (+3) SNP 4% (+2) Green 5% (+1) Other 2% (-1) Fieldwork: 6th - 8th June 2024 Sample: 2,010 GB adults (Changes from 31st May - 3rd June 2024)
That SNP surge to 4% has killed off any hopes Labour had of picking up much seats in Scotland.
Meanwhile, Labours net zero policy will cause Blackouts, according to the head of UKs Energy ministry, leads the Telegraph.
Tim Montgomerie to produce a list of traditional Conservative MPs and Reform candidates worthy enough for conservatives to supprt
'SOME NEWS AND AN INVITATION 🚨🚨 Last week I confirmed I’d be voting for my local Tory MP John Glen because I see him as a model of duty, competence and a very traditional English sense of public service. In recent weeks eg he gripped the contaminated blood scandal like noone before him had done. But this week I also said I said I’d vote for Nigel Farage if I lived in Clacton because my party needs reminding of its once core beliefs on border control, law and order, over-taxation and home ownership. So, here’s the thing… Encouraged by a couple of people with deeper pockets than me I’m actively exploring putting together a list of (1) good, serious Tory MPs who don’t deserve to be punished because of bad decisions by a soon-to-disappear failed party leadership and (2) an identification of those standing for Reform (and perhaps even one or two eg SDP candidates) who (i) might easily have been made candidates by Thatcher and Major’s rules-based Tory HQ and/or (ii) any stand-outs who know politics is broken, would enrich the backbenches with independent thinking and are rightly appalled at the too many barely-conservative-in-any-way careerists who bedlock the Tory benches (but were fast-tracked and protected by the unaccountable and incestuous candidates matesocracy in the contemporary Tory HQ). This ‘voter advisory list’ (if it happens at all) will only cover seats where the public record and quality of sources provides more than titbits and then will only be advisory. It will be info rather than commandments! And if the team I’m exploring building is divided on any head-to-head battles we’ll admit as much. If you can help me build a team capable of delivering this (by offering money, knowledge, social media skills or simple good counsel etc please DM me). Your responses over the next 72 hours will determine whether or not I can see a path to building something that could CREDIBLY help right-minded, non-.partisan voters navigate this messy election… or not. So… I’ll press go on Wednesday morning and start building possibly a first component of an inevitable unite-the-right movement or I’ll put this draft plan in recycling and go to the pub for a long session.' https://x.com/montie/status/1799535993361408297
But they won't be True Conservative Party Members if they sign up to that initiative.
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
Nor indeed something utterly bizarrely left field. Corbyn had manhole covers. Heath yacht racing. Blair had been in crap bands. Gordon Brown lost an eye playing rugby. Cameron has a disabled child. Starmer bought a field for donkeys. Major was an Oval member whose Dad was a trapeze artist and his brother a garden gnome guy. Thatcher designed soft ice cream. Churchill. Well there's loads, but amateur bricklayer? All of these are within the parameters of the kind of really quirky stuff ordinary people have and like to do. It seems to be likes to watch Southampton FC and drinks coke. Well yes. People do that. But what is interesting about him? What's the hook that if you met him in the Pub, you'd remember him by?
Callaghan had a farm.
But what about Wilson ? Known for his pipe, gannex coat and brown sauce imagery but apparently the opposite in private.
@DeltapollUK 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 25 points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 21% (-4) Lab 46% (-2) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 12% (+3) SNP 4% (+2) Green 5% (+1) Other 2% (-1) Fieldwork: 6th - 8th June 2024 Sample: 2,010 GB adults (Changes from 31st May - 3rd June 2024)
That SNP surge to 4% has killed off any hopes Labour had of picking up much seats in Scotland.
Meanwhile, Labours net zero policy will cause Blackouts, according to the head of UKs Energy ministry, leads the Telegraph.
@DeltapollUK 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 25 points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 21% (-4) Lab 46% (-2) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 12% (+3) SNP 4% (+2) Green 5% (+1) Other 2% (-1) Fieldwork: 6th - 8th June 2024 Sample: 2,010 GB adults (Changes from 31st May - 3rd June 2024)
That SNP surge to 4% has killed off any hopes Labour had of picking up much seats in Scotland.
Meanwhile, Labours net zero policy will cause Blackouts, according to the head of UKs Energy ministry, leads the Telegraph.
I'm not sure whether you're being serious or not. You need Scottish polling to get a better idea of what may or may not be going on in Scotland. And if Labour said the sky was blue the Torygraph would produce an alleged expert to insist that it was green.
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
Nor indeed something utterly bizarrely left field. Corbyn had manhole covers. Heath yacht racing. Blair had been in crap bands. Gordon Brown lost an eye playing rugby. Cameron has a disabled child. Starmer bought a field for donkeys. Major was an Oval member whose Dad was a trapeze artist and his brother a garden gnome guy. Thatcher designed soft ice cream. Churchill. Well there's loads, but amateur bricklayer? All of these are within the parameters of the kind of really quirky stuff ordinary people have and like to do. It seems to be likes to watch Southampton FC and drinks coke. Well yes. People do that. But what is interesting about him? What's the hook that if you met him in the Pub, you'd remember him by?
Callaghan had a farm.
But what about Wilson ? Known for his pipe, gannex coat and brown sauce imagery but apparently the opposite in private.
Wilson was Oxford's youngest ever Don. I believe that counts as memorable and interesting were you to meet him down the boozer. I'd be fascinated.
@DeltapollUK 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 25 points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 21% (-4) Lab 46% (-2) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 12% (+3) SNP 4% (+2) Green 5% (+1) Other 2% (-1) Fieldwork: 6th - 8th June 2024 Sample: 2,010 GB adults (Changes from 31st May - 3rd June 2024)
So that's a poll starting a day later than the others published today..
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
Nor indeed something utterly bizarrely left field. Corbyn had manhole covers. Heath yacht racing. Blair had been in crap bands. Gordon Brown lost an eye playing rugby. Cameron has a disabled child. Starmer bought a field for donkeys. Major was an Oval member whose Dad was a trapeze artist and his brother a garden gnome guy. Thatcher designed soft ice cream. Churchill. Well there's loads, but amateur bricklayer? All of these are within the parameters of the kind of really quirky stuff ordinary people have and like to do. It seems to be likes to watch Southampton FC and drinks coke. Well yes. People do that. But what is interesting about him? What's the hook that if you met him in the Pub, you'd remember him by?
Callaghan had a farm.
But what about Wilson ? Known for his pipe, gannex coat and brown sauce imagery but apparently the opposite in private.
X takes action on deepfake network smearing UK politicians after BBC investigation
Social media site X has taken action against a network smearing UK politicians, including Labour's Wes Streeting, with doctored clips - removing several accounts and posts. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55gd8559eo
ETA I think some of my followers have disappeared but I was not keeping count so...
@DeltapollUK 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 25 points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 21% (-4) Lab 46% (-2) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 12% (+3) SNP 4% (+2) Green 5% (+1) Other 2% (-1) Fieldwork: 6th - 8th June 2024 Sample: 2,010 GB adults (Changes from 31st May - 3rd June 2024)
So that's a poll starting a day later than the others published today..
Even that new Deltapoll gives a Tory lead over Reform of 9% so still a long way from crossover.
The D Day story has now dropped out of the headlines in the BBC and most other media and online newspapers anyway
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
He doesn’t give the appearance of a man with a functioning brain.
An excellent point.
He's such a crap constituency MP that he doesn't even play that card either. Most of the rest of them shout about their particular necks of the woods and its achievements. Do you think he has heard of Catterick, or has even the vaguest awareness of what it is?
When he visited Bishop Auckland earlier today I'm sure he thought it was Richmond, because there is zero chance of them winning Bishop Auckland, Dehenna knew the game was up in late 2022...
One thing that isn't mentioned much is how young Sunak is.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
He doesn't give the appearance of a man with a wide hinterland, such as an interest in military history, classic movies or hill walking in the Dales.
Nor indeed something utterly bizarrely left field. Corbyn had manhole covers. Heath yacht racing. Blair had been in crap bands. Gordon Brown lost an eye playing rugby. Cameron has a disabled child. Starmer bought a field for donkeys. Major was an Oval member whose Dad was a trapeze artist and his brother a garden gnome guy. Thatcher designed soft ice cream. Churchill. Well there's loads, but amateur bricklayer? All of these are within the parameters of the kind of really quirky stuff ordinary people have and like to do. It seems to be likes to watch Southampton FC and drinks coke. Well yes. People do that. But what is interesting about him? What's the hook that if you met him in the Pub, you'd remember him by?
the conditional formatting in his spreadsheets
Conditional but still universally red.. both financial and polling!
While I don't live in the PM's constituency, I am nearby, and I have family in the seat. I cannot comment on his abilities to answer constituent queries, but it isn't true the PM isn't present in his constituency or doesn't know it. He is relatively regularly seen about from I've been told.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
Some counties would have just one seat.
Rutland will feel abolished.
Rutland is already combined with Stamford Lincs, and a good sized chunk of East Leics.
Stamford should really be part of Rutland anyway… it has much more in common with Oakham and Uppingham than it does with Bourne and Spalding.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
Some counties would have just one seat.
Rutland will feel abolished.
Rutland is already combined with Stamford Lincs, and a good sized chunk of East Leics.
Stamford should really be part of Rutland anyway… it has much more in common with Oakham and Uppingham than it does with Bourne and Spalding.
Rutland irredentism? Please don't go there. The world's got enough troubles.
@DeltapollUK 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 25 points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 21% (-4) Lab 46% (-2) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 12% (+3) SNP 4% (+2) Green 5% (+1) Other 2% (-1) Fieldwork: 6th - 8th June 2024 Sample: 2,010 GB adults (Changes from 31st May - 3rd June 2024)
That SNP surge to 4% has killed off any hopes Labour had of picking up much seats in Scotland.
Meanwhile, Labours net zero policy will cause Blackouts, according to the head of UKs Energy ministry, leads the Telegraph.
Tim Montgomerie has started souding very pro-Reform, which would worry me if I was Rishi Sunak.
Didn't he used to be a metropolitan Cameroon, or am I getting mixed up with someomne else ?
He was always an IDSite - compassionate social conservative, if you had to give him a label.
He is clearly focusing on making the parliamentary party as socially conservative and traditional right as possible post defeat while hoping to get Farage and a few Reform MPs too.
Then he will lead the 'peasants revolt' to begin the process of sweeping out metropolitan liberals from CCHQ and the party leadership
X takes action on deepfake network smearing UK politicians after BBC investigation
Social media site X has taken action against a network smearing UK politicians, including Labour's Wes Streeting, with doctored clips - removing several accounts and posts. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55gd8559eo
ETA I think some of my followers have disappeared but I was not keeping count so...
The UK election is a dry run for the US election, as far as social media sites are concerned. The latter is going to be one total hellhole of disinformation.
It could be that the Tories were down to their ultra-core base of 20-24 % after Truss, and nothing much has, or is going to change that.
That might incliude Sunak's entire leadership, or even Sunak stepping down early for someome else to take over the campaign. If Sunak comes over to that way of thinking, that the pattern was all set long ago, you really couldn't blame him for wanting to take some of the blame off his exclusive shoulders after the last couple of days.
Tim Montgomerie has started souding very pro-Reform, which would worry me if I was Rishi Sunak.
Didn't he used to be a metropolitan Cameroon, or am I getting mixed up with someomne else ?
He was always an IDSite - compassionate social conservative, if you had to give him a label.
He is clearly focusing on making the parliamentary party as socially conservative and traditional right as possible post defeat while hoping to get Farage and a few Reform MPs too.
Then he will lead the 'peasants revolt' to begin the process of sweeping out metropolitan liberals from CCHQ and the party leadership
Hopefully leading to the permanent marginalisation of the party, as it encounters the same ceiling of support problems as UKIP and the like have done in the past.
On the other hand, if Labour make a stuff up of the next five years then a loony right outfit may be very well placed to capitalise.
The responsibility falling upon Keir Starmer is indeed onerous.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
Some counties would have just one seat.
Rutland will feel abolished.
Rutland is already combined with Stamford Lincs, and a good sized chunk of East Leics.
Stamford should really be part of Rutland anyway… it has much more in common with Oakham and Uppingham than it does with Bourne and Spalding.
Rutland irredentism? Please don't go there. The world's got enough troubles.
From the water to the Nene Rutland will be great again
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
Some counties would have just one seat.
Rutland will feel abolished.
Rutland is already combined with Stamford Lincs, and a good sized chunk of East Leics.
Stamford should really be part of Rutland anyway… it has much more in common with Oakham and Uppingham than it does with Bourne and Spalding.
Rutland irredentism? Please don't go there. The world's got enough troubles.
Should be the other way around, Rutland should be part of Stamfordshire, the rest of the Five Boroughs got to be county towns, seems a shame that Stamford missed out.
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
I don't know if "left leaning" applies to me (centrist globalist liberal according to the tribes thing) but yes. If Con + Ref got over 50% of the vote and could stomach working together, then that's a deal. Yeah, it'd be a gross government from my point of view, but it would be a reflection of the country's wishes.
If Tory + Reform was over 50% then probably under FPTP we’d be labouring under a huge Tory majority. So yes, PR.
I would suggest that PR wound realign a lot of parties and Labour, the Tories, and the Liberals would split. My guess is Reform would tend to get kept out by a Thatcherite/Cameroon/Cleggite coalition. The Cleggites would always be in power as they’d also help Labour keep out the Corbynites.
The Thatcherites would want to form a government with Reform first and might merge with them. The Cameroons and Cleggites would probably eventually merge. The social democrat wing of the LDs would stay distinct but deal with Labour and the Greens first
Changes in electoral systems rarely have much immediate impact on parties. NZ switched to PR, but there wasn't any big realignment of the parties. The organisational momentum keeps things continuing as they were.
In the last election under FPTP in NZ in 1993 National and Labour got over 90% of the seats and only the Alliance and NZ First also got MPs.
In the last NZ election last year, only 82 out of 123 seats were won by National and Labour with the Greens, ACT and Maori parties as well as NZ First winning seats.
Currently National has a coalition government with the ACT and NZ First, Ardern 's Labour party won a rare majority government in 2020 but before that was in coalition with the Greens and NZ First
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
I'd want PR on a point of principle. It is then up to the voters to decide what to do with real democracy.
The only argument against PR is continuity. We’ve been FPTP for centuries so why change. On any logical understanding of democracy PR of some sort is a no brainer.
And multi member constituencies under STV preserve the local MP link while protecting you from the bad luck of a shit one. Imagine if you were a resident of Clacton or South West Norfolk after the next election and needed to talk to your MP about something like the local hospital.
Its not the only argument against pr please dont pretend it is...now dont disagree fptp is perfect but here is the difference
fptp = here is what we are going to do vote for us Pr = vote for us then we will tell you what you voted for
pr can fuck off frankly
And so can you.
Your points are nonsense. For example, nobody voting for BJ's levelling up in 2019 did so expecting that to morph into supporting Rishi cancelling HS2 by 2023.
PR allows people to vote FOR the politician they prefer. Not merely against someone. It means parliament (approximately) reflects the will of the people. It will encourage more folk to vote.
Most countries have PR. Most countries' politics are just as f*cked as ours. PR is in no way a panacea, it is merely a more accurate way for us all to express our collective, democratic will.
Comments
"Not Cumbernauld"
It's not as if they worked for those assets, especially with house price inflation so regionally uneven.
I mean he once graced (if that's the word) the EUROPEAN parliament!
I listened to Any Questions and Any Answers today and Paul Johnson was making this very point. Any Answeres was all DDay initially but then several callers on the subject of finances. So it seems at least someone is taking notice, even if not mainstream.
Anyone who thinks there is scope for major tax cuts is delusional, or confident they won't be in government in a months time.
The rich old people are used to getting their own way.
It looks like that generation are going to lose an Election for the first time in their adult lives.
There'll be much wailing and gnashing of false teeth.
But an incoming government won't be beholden to their votes.
It's why I want as big a Labour majority as possible. Starmer can afford then to be brave.
I have no great expectations he will.
But then that's on him and we can hold him to account.
The grey vote is entitled, and cakeist, and very large. So we are stuck, circling the plughole.
In the unlikely scenario Sunak did resign it would only be as Tory leader anyway, Parliament is not sitting and he would stay caretaker PM until election day so no need for the King to be involved
Is there some extraordinary mechanism whereby Rishi could compel Chas to pull the 4th July election and reconvene Parliament under a new PM until 23rd January?
We need to stop kidding ourselves that we deserve a higher standard of living than we actually earn.
Reform only at 2015 UKIP levels too.
Puts the Tories back over 100 seats with 103 Tory MPs projected to be elected
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=24&LAB=42&LIB=10&Reform=12&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=17&SCOTLAB=36.8&SCOTLIB=8.4&SCOTReform=1.9&SCOTGreen=1.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=31.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Both driven by Comet Hale Bopp. Which was at it's peak as I walked the Annapurna Trail in Nepal.
Concentrated far more on the political, emotional and social effects of a possible catastrophic
impact.
Large part of the early story revolves around a reporter who's got wind of politicians retiring to spend more time with their families because of "Ellie". And thinks they are on to a massive sex scandal.
ELE = extinction level event.
The country as a whole definitely has an air of Henry VIII about its attitude, but leaving the EU didn't bring the riches that the dissolution of the monasteries brought after the break with Rome.
In practice, "But we paid our taxes!!!"
Plughole.
If there's a Labour landslide it'll be down principally to the grey vote sitting on their hands or splitting to his and other parties. They have a screaming strop and all go back to the Tories again and he's a one-term PM.
The system is broke, but the vested interests that back it are too numerous to be defied.
Plughole.
And I doubt anyone with those childhood memories would have made the mistake Sunak did.
It's a story from 1995 about a truly remarkable black student at Harvard whose skills were such he was called the anointed one. His name was Alvin L Bragg and he has recently come to public attention for the successful prosecution of one Donald J Trump.
He's such a crap constituency MP that he doesn't even play that card either. Most of the rest of them shout about their particular necks of the woods and its achievements. Do you think he has heard of Catterick, or has even the vaguest awareness of what it is?
Corbyn had manhole covers. Heath yacht racing. Blair had been in crap bands. Gordon Brown lost an eye playing rugby. Cameron has a disabled child. Starmer bought a field for donkeys. Major was an Oval member whose Dad was a trapeze artist and his brother a garden gnome guy. Thatcher designed soft ice cream. Churchill. Well there's loads, but amateur bricklayer?
All of these are within the parameters of the kind of really quirky stuff ordinary people have and like to do.
It seems to be likes to watch Southampton FC and drinks coke.
Well yes. People do that. But what is interesting about him?
What's the hook that if you met him in the Pub, you'd remember him by?
In all seriousness, if you want it that way around access the comments via vanilla.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/
Five years later there's considerably fewer of them.
And a whole new cohort who could have benefitted.
I don't hold out much hope. But it isn't impossible with will.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12201/what-to-do-if-and-when-crossover-happens-politicalbetting-com/p8
'SOME NEWS AND AN INVITATION 🚨🚨
Last week I confirmed I’d be voting for my local Tory MP John Glen because I see him as a model of duty, competence and a very traditional English sense of public service. In recent weeks eg he gripped the contaminated blood scandal like noone before him had done. But this week I also said I said I’d vote for Nigel Farage if I lived in Clacton because my party needs reminding of its once core beliefs on border control, law and order, over-taxation and home ownership.
So, here’s the thing…
Encouraged by a couple of people with deeper pockets than me I’m actively exploring putting together a list of (1) good, serious Tory MPs who don’t deserve to be punished because of bad decisions by a soon-to-disappear failed party leadership and (2) an identification of those standing for Reform (and perhaps even one or two eg SDP candidates) who (i) might easily have been made candidates by Thatcher and Major’s rules-based Tory HQ and/or (ii) any stand-outs who know politics is broken, would enrich the backbenches with independent thinking and are rightly appalled at the too many barely-conservative-in-any-way careerists who bedlock the Tory benches (but were fast-tracked and protected by the unaccountable and incestuous candidates matesocracy in the contemporary Tory HQ).
This ‘voter advisory list’ (if it happens at all) will only cover seats where the public record and quality of sources provides more than titbits and then will only be advisory. It will be info rather than commandments! And if the team I’m exploring building is divided on any head-to-head battles we’ll admit as much.
If you can help me build a team capable of delivering this (by offering money, knowledge, social media skills or simple good counsel etc please DM me). Your responses over the next 72 hours will determine whether or not I can see a path to building something that could CREDIBLY help right-minded, non-.partisan voters navigate this messy election… or not.
So… I’ll press go on Wednesday morning and start building possibly a first component of an inevitable unite-the-right movement or I’ll put this draft plan in recycling and go to the pub for a long session.'
https://x.com/montie/status/1799535993361408297
Firstly, the airbase is 800km from the front lines, so it's a relatively deep strike. Secondly, if Ukraine can start to do the same sort of damage to Russian strategic aviation that they've done to the Black Sea Fleet, then that will have consequences.
But must interesting us the UAV used. It looks like it is, again, simply a light aircraft, carrying a large bomb, with remote guidance installed. It's really quite something that Russia is still having trouble with what is a relatively crude form of attack.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead by 25 points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday.
Con 21% (-4)
Lab 46% (-2)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Reform 12% (+3)
SNP 4% (+2)
Green 5% (+1)
Other 2% (-1)
Fieldwork: 6th - 8th June 2024
Sample: 2,010 GB adults
(Changes from 31st May - 3rd June 2024)
I don't think it's fair to criticise Rishi for being too young to be a WW2 obsessive. He's 44 years old, so most people in the UK are younger than him. SKS is likely to be the last PM who's even heard of the Commando comics...
Net approval for the Prime Minister @RishiSunak falls by two points, while net approval for @Keir_Starmer is up by four points.
The gap between the two main leaders widens to forty-five points.
Didn't he used to be a metropolitan Cameroon, or am I getting him mixed up with someomne else ?
https://x.com/deltapolluk/status/1799556725466386477?s=46
I suppose that the only thing stopping that is the scale of the drubbing, and whether there's a large enough cohort of Reform-sympathising Tory MPs in what's left of the Parliamentary party to get a candidate onto the membership ballot (in which case, said candidate will walk it against a moderate.)
A very heavy defeat would probably wipe out all the Red Wall gains and leave the rump Tory Commons contingent looking a lot more like the Liberal Democrats in terms of representation: overwhelmingly rural, mainly Southern English, with a handful of Scots. Are enough of that battered group of survivors going to allow the loony membership the opportunity to go full fat Faragiste for it to happen? Answers on a postcard.
fptp = here is what we are going to do vote for us
Pr = vote for us then we will tell you what you voted for
pr can fuck off frankly
Meanwhile, Labours net zero policy will cause Blackouts, according to the head of UKs Energy ministry, leads the Telegraph.
But what about Wilson ? Known for his pipe, gannex coat and brown sauce imagery but apparently the opposite in private.
I believe that counts as memorable and interesting were you to meet him down the boozer.
I'd be fascinated.
Social media site X has taken action against a network smearing UK politicians, including Labour's Wes Streeting, with doctored clips - removing several accounts and posts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55gd8559eo
ETA I think some of my followers have disappeared but I was not keeping count so...
The D Day story has now dropped out of the headlines in the BBC and most other media and online newspapers anyway
Same with PR. Conditional but still universally red.. both financial and polling!
Please don't go there. The world's got enough troubles.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention?period=3m&crossBreak=scotland
https://x.com/wesstreeting/status/1799558792415257069
Then he will lead the 'peasants revolt' to begin the process of sweeping out metropolitan liberals from CCHQ and the party leadership
That might incliude Sunak's entire leadership, or even Sunak stepping down early for someome else to take over the campaign. If Sunak comes over to that way of thinking, that the pattern was all set long ago, you really couldn't blame him for wanting to take some of the blame off his exclusive shoulders after the last couple of days.
On the other hand, if Labour make a stuff up of the next five years then a loony right outfit may be very well placed to capitalise.
The responsibility falling upon Keir Starmer is indeed onerous.
Rutland will be great again
Put the shovel down and step away from the hole already
In the last NZ election last year, only 82 out of 123 seats were won by National and Labour with the Greens, ACT and Maori parties as well as NZ First winning seats.
Currently National has a coalition government with the ACT and NZ First, Ardern 's Labour party won a rare majority government in 2020 but before that was in coalition with the Greens and NZ First
Your points are nonsense. For example, nobody voting for BJ's levelling up in 2019 did so expecting that to morph into supporting Rishi cancelling HS2 by 2023.
PR allows people to vote FOR the politician they prefer. Not merely against someone. It means parliament (approximately) reflects the will of the people. It will encourage more folk to vote.
Most countries have PR. Most countries' politics are just as f*cked as ours. PR is in no way a panacea, it is merely a more accurate way for us all to express our collective, democratic will.