Categories
What to do if and when crossover happens – politicalbetting.com
What to do if and when crossover happens – politicalbetting.com
— the immediate fear in CCHQ is Farage’s return and Sunak’s D-Day disaster will see Reform crossover in some polls as soon as this weekend— pollsters see that as plausible— Tories now worry they’ll end up with less than 100 seats— see this chart >>https://t.co/Qow0bREjeV pic.twitter.com/Vxkh866Bvn
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The anatomy of Rishi Sunak’s ‘spectacular’ D-Day own goal
* Cabinet despair: ‘The cut-through is huge because it’s wrong on every level… It’s a failure of leadership. The real question for this election is not whether Keir Starmer wins. That’s a given. It’s how many people are left on the green benches opposite’
* No 10 mistakenly viewed the Omaha beach commemoration at less significant than events involving British veterans, to the extent it was referred to as the ‘French event’
* Labour can’t believe it. ‘It’s genuinely mind-boggling’
* Tory MPs believe that the Reform ‘crossover’ - the moment it overtakes the Tories in the polls - will come soon
* Tory candidate: ‘It’s a shitshow, a total disaster. He’s made Theresa May’s 2017 campaign look competent. In an election that’s framed around defence and security it’s a spectacular misjudgment. It feels like the Reform crossover is inevitable now’
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1799399691378885040
I really think we must consider the prospect that Sunak will kill the Tories for good. I thought this scenario impossible but I really can see how he'd get 100 seats.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/21/7447519/
'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
https://x.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1799456782487892334
2019 was a mirage. The Tories won with a historically unpopular leader and an unpopular party, against Jeremy Corbyn. They thought they'd found the recipe to win when in fact they put in place the seeds for their own downfall.
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1798604257991754028
Basically the tories were fooked before they started BUT Sunak's campaign has been bloody useless from the very moment he decided to stand outside in the deluge. It has gone on and on lurching from one bad PR stunt to another, culminating in the D-Day disaster.
No one wants to back a loser.
Corbyn had a bit crowd at the town hall chanting "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn!" when he handed his nomination papers a couple of days ago, but I've not seen anything else from them and the number of posters in people's windows has remained static.
The CLP is definitely split, though - just because no-one has actually left, it doesn't mean that they're all actively campaigning for Nargund!
Little sympathy for the Tory MPs who lose their seats at this election, they chose to let Sunak take over as leader and PM without an election. If between the entire cohort of Tory MPs they couldn't find anyone better than Sunak, why do any of them deserve to keep their seats?
Now a slim but meaningful chance my genius "resign during the campaign" strategy from a while back is imminent.
Enough!
Several of the poll modelers are putting the Lib Dems on 50 - 65 seats. I think that really is their ceiling. There are now more predictions of the Tories dropping below 100. Under the circumstances, that isn't their floor. While I don't think the Tories are sub 50 just yet, I'd guess the probability of getting there in the next 4 weeks is about 20%.
Or, these days, the PM could have asked ChatGPT. I did — forgetting, incidentally, to tell the app that the pressing TV interview was only a recording. This was the virtual robot’s reply: “As the prime minister, attending a memorial event for the D-Day landings is a significant duty, reflecting respect and honor [sic] for the sacrifices made during World War II. This event is not only important to veterans and their families but also to the international community, particularly given the presence of other world leaders. Missing it for a TV interview could be seen as prioritising personal political gains over national and historical responsibilities, which might not be well-received by the public and other nations. It would be advisable to attend the D-Day memorial and find another time for the interview.”
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/is-it-too-late-for-sunak-to-fall-on-his-sword-rr63k0p8h
Probably long gone. Nice spot though.
How was D-Day not the start of liberation? When that dawn broke and many brave men lay dead on those beaches, it was the beginning of victory in Europe. Yes, it took 10 long months finally to push the Nazi machine back into oblivion but D-Day began the liberation of the West.
I'm not sure crossing over to fiction is good because we're talking here about real people who lay down their lives, but I am reminded of King Theoden's battle charge cry, a book written by JRR Tolkien during the dark days of WWII:
Arise, arise, Riders of Théoden!
spear shall be shaken, shield shall be splintered,
a sword-day, a red day, ere the sun rises!
Ride now, ride now, ride! Ride for ruin and the world's ending!
Death! Death! Death!
Forth Eorlingas!
Can I attend some of the events and then sneak back to London to record an interview with ITV?
ChatGPT:
Attending some of the D-Day events and then returning to London for a high-profile interview with ITV is a savvy move that allows you to balance both your ceremonial duties and campaign needs. Here’s how you can manage this effectively:
How is that free speech?
He wants to defend speech he agrees with, while banning other speech. Free speech is when you defend speech you disagree with.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babi_Yar_Holocaust_Memorial_Center
One of those reasons: it would wind up the anti-Semites
Ed Davey is also four, if we count former and future.
Richard Tracey 1997
David Shaw 2001
Helen Whately 2010
James Berry 2017 when ED got his constituency back.
David Steel is about 6, depending whom we count.
Three in the strict terms.
One was a future MP he defeated when they both lost - Steel coming 2nd and the other 3rd.
And one MSP and one MEP.
Take the national service policy as an example. I have never heard any Conservative politician mention this for 14 years, so where has it come from? I suspect the answer is that you had a bunch of SPADs with a whiteboard brainstorming policies that would appeal to older votes.
Of course you don't want to be too ideological (e.g. Corbyn) but you do need some ideology as a starting point so that you can create a narrative of what needs to be done and then develop the appropriate policy framework. Without that you end up with the situation where you just have tactics and you throw out things as sops to the electorate, which may work for a while, but eventually the electorate will see what you are doing and will be furious at all the breaches of trust.
David also says that a divided right, will lead to Lab being in power for a decade. That is quite likely anyway as each government in my lifetime has 10 years+ The problem with saving the Tories is that they are parachuting SPADs into "safe" seats, which will just lead to more managerialism.
Better to have a revolution on the right and see where the chips land - whether that be merger, alliance, takeover or simply the Cons winning back their lost voters by moving to the right.
He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)
And as per @Chris previous thread:
“Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.
Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.
All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.
Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.
Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.
The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.
Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
...
Most popular 'eh? He has stood 7 times to be an MP and 7 times the British electorate have told him to fuck off
She tried to talk me out of fluffing Farages ego in Nodge South. She failed.
https://www.policeconduct.gov.uk/news/iopc-investigation-south-wales-police-actions-prior-deaths-two-boys-ely-near-conclusion
The Ely facts are simple. Two violent young criminals in the course of committing a crime killed themselves. Tragic, but their own fault.
The police do not appear to be directly involved but have been forced into it by three things (1) the those criminals' parents, frantic to avoid the well-deserved blame they should be getting (2) the craven behaviour of the Drakeford government and (3) the folly of the police themselves in putting out incorrect statements.
Which means that if (when) the police are exonerated there will be screams of 'whitewash.'
Edit: beaten to it by the lad hisself!
I’ll give you pint drinking and charismatic although the latter is more the superficial charm redolent of psychopaths.
The Leave campaign was far more than Farage, it was dominated primarily by Tories which is the only reason why we had the referendum in the first place. The Tory schism on Europe had existed since Maastricht long predating Farage joining politics.
The accomodation tonight and the bike store!
It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.
Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no
That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?
Your guess, and I'm not offering 1000/1, is whether the Reform UK manifesto wants to (a) keep these ideas legal or (b) ban them.
In the currently mad atmosphere, though, who knows.
I'll take stuff that worked in her head for a fiver, John
That's not impossible, though, ether, with the state Tory MP"s are in.
TBH although it's exciting I'm not in love with this whole development. I'd prefer a nice traditional Labour landslide a la 45 and 97 with the Conservatives battered and bloodied but still breathing - and Farage can skulk off to America. Let's not be succumbing to that sort of politics just because some other countries are.
I’ve just been writing about the Kishinev pogrom for the gazette. Quite astonishingly pivotal in world history
A forced resignation is within the range of possibilities. But I don't see how he can be removed if he is unwilling to resign.
Edit. This is because there are no MP's to send letters in.
Nor any 1922 Committee to receive them.
Plus of course:
Christianity attempts to teach all children that they are intrinsically sinful by virtue of original sin, and this sin can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated ...
Should teaching about Christianity be banned by your logic?
It doesn't teach children *anything*, because it's not taught to children,
It doesn't teach *anyone* that they are intrinsically racist, it teaches that decisions can be intrinsically racist without being consciously so (although they can be consciously racist too).
It doesn't teach anyone about *denying* anything, it teaches bout *thinking* about everything.
So apart from everything, you got nothing right.
And then telling them why it was unhelpful.
Do you really honestly believe Reform UK are “clearly fascist”? Do you honestly think they are “clearly” in the same genre as Hitler and Mussolini?
Either you do think this and you have an iq of 7 or you don’t and it’s pitiful and childish hyperbole which serves no one. Why not use the big boo words for when the real fascists arrive?
I might as well call starmer a Trotskyite. But I won’t. Because he’s not. And I’m not a childish moron
Which leaves the 'not quite dead yet' option. Franco in the 1970s, Soviet Presidents in the early 1980s. Have as few appearances or interviews as possible. Wheel him out to wave and smile, but wheel him back in shortly afterwards.
Actually, pretty much the Boris approach in 2019.
I have no idea other, but from the above reports and others, Tory MP's are ready to do almost anything.
Regarding the stuff about abolishing critical race theory, and 'reforming' the equalities act, and ending the hate speech stuff... it matters to some people, and there will be a whole load of other people who will be completely neutral about it and it won't stop them from voting for the reform party.
In the end their position on free speech is not that different to the other parties and indeed the prevailing legal situation in the UK - censorious and illiberal. But what may happen is that because of the reform party the right wing criticisms of 'woke' will enter the political mainstream.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/suspect-face-preliminary-questioning-after-assault-danish-pm-frederiksen-2024-06-08/
A growing share of registered voters in the United States say a person's gender is determined by their sex at birth:
53% said this in September 2017
56% in June 2021
60% in May 2022
65% in April 2024
This view has become more common in both parties.
It's too late for personnel changes to be effective, but trying to rein in some of their wilder ideas might help. Stick to the core campaign themes that were (presumably) agreed before the election was called, don't try anything that hasn't been properly prepared, talk to local media by preference and try not to attract unnecessary attention.
This is not a partisan thing. It’s based on the evidence of this document. There’s no evidence Starmer’s a Trot but Corbyn might well be. Corbyn regularly platforms with the Socialist Workers. So I’d have had no problem with you calling Corbyn a Trot because that’s where evidence goes. Similarly this document is evidence Reform are fascists, or at least fash curious. The lighter, Franco, end of fascism perhaps, defo not Nazism, but still getting there.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
And he gets…. 12 days in custody and is not named?? Am I missing something? Maybe he’s the son of Xi jinping??