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What to do if and when crossover happens – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
imageWhat to do if and when crossover happens – politicalbetting.com

— the immediate fear in CCHQ is Farage’s return and Sunak’s D-Day disaster will see Reform crossover in some polls as soon as this weekend— pollsters see that as plausible— Tories now worry they’ll end up with less than 100 seats— see this chart >>https://t.co/Qow0bREjeV pic.twitter.com/Vxkh866Bvn

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    I AM BAT.
  • Options
    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 700
    Second
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    Times weekend read:

    The anatomy of Rishi Sunak’s ‘spectacular’ D-Day own goal

    * Cabinet despair: ‘The cut-through is huge because it’s wrong on every level… It’s a failure of leadership. The ­real question for this election is not whether Keir Starmer wins. That’s a given. It’s how many people are left on the green benches opposite’

    * No 10 mistakenly viewed the Omaha beach commemoration at less significant than events involving British veterans, to the extent it was referred to as the ‘French event’

    * Labour can’t believe it. ‘It’s genuinely mind-boggling’

    * Tory MPs believe that the Reform ‘crossover’ - the moment it overtakes the Tories in the polls - will come soon

    * Tory candidate: ‘It’s a shitshow, a total disaster. He’s made Theresa May’s 2017 campaign look competent. In an election that’s framed around defence and security it’s a spectacular misjudgment. It feels like the Reform crossover is inevitable now’

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1799399691378885040

    I really think we must consider the prospect that Sunak will kill the Tories for good. I thought this scenario impossible but I really can see how he'd get 100 seats.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418
    CON top 5 👍
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,517
    Sandpit said:

    OK, PB competition time.

    @Leon is going to be in Kiev this evening, and for a couple of days.

    He’s agreed that he will put £10 (or 500 of the local currency) into a charity pot, and wants me to nominate exactly where this should happen.

    Any ideas as to where we should make him go?

    Let’s not go too far from the Kiev metro system, as he doesn’t have a car.

    I'd vote for the Moshchun memorial.

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/21/7447519/

    'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
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    “The problem with making lots of different, incompatible promises to lots of different people is that when you fail to deliver on them, you upset them all”. @jburnmurdoch uses @IpsosUK data in @ftweekend to chart the party’s recent fortunes 📉

    https://x.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1799456782487892334

    2019 was a mirage. The Tories won with a historically unpopular leader and an unpopular party, against Jeremy Corbyn. They thought they'd found the recipe to win when in fact they put in place the seeds for their own downfall.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    One factor is that the fact of cross-over will create some extra airtime for Farage because it is the story, which might get him more votes. The snowball effect.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    Did Keir Starmer make his own D-Day gaffe by appearing to conflate it with VE Day?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1798604257991754028
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    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 100
    biggles said:

    One factor is that the fact of cross-over will create some extra airtime for Farage because it is the story, which might get him more votes. The snowball effect.

    I think there's been a lot of that during these first 2.5 weeks.

    Basically the tories were fooked before they started BUT Sunak's campaign has been bloody useless from the very moment he decided to stand outside in the deluge. It has gone on and on lurching from one bad PR stunt to another, culminating in the D-Day disaster.

    No one wants to back a loser.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,159
    FPT:
    DM_Andy said:


    AlsoLei said:

    New Tory campaign ad:

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1799447503471014309/photo/1

    Angela Rayner has already pulled Starmer’s strings to get him to let Diane Abbott stand and to surrender to the demands of trade unions.

    What will she make him do next?

    Oh god, Rishi's D-Day disaster was better than that...
    Hi @AlsoLei , how's Islington North going from your viewpoint? Seems like from Twitter that Praful is getting a decent ground game together and I haven't heard of any defections from the CLP.
    I saw some Labour folk out and about earlier this afternoon, and there've been a few more Labour posters appearing over the last couple of days.

    Corbyn had a bit crowd at the town hall chanting "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn!" when he handed his nomination papers a couple of days ago, but I've not seen anything else from them and the number of posters in people's windows has remained static.

    The CLP is definitely split, though - just because no-one has actually left, it doesn't mean that they're all actively campaigning for Nargund!
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
    Sunak is an even worse PM than Truss.

    Little sympathy for the Tory MPs who lose their seats at this election, they chose to let Sunak take over as leader and PM without an election. If between the entire cohort of Tory MPs they couldn't find anyone better than Sunak, why do any of them deserve to keep their seats?
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,423
    Sunak has, per twitter rumour, cancelled all interviews today, on and off the record.

    Now a slim but meaningful chance my genius "resign during the campaign" strategy from a while back is imminent.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836

    Did Keir Starmer make his own D-Day gaffe by appearing to conflate it with VE Day?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1798604257991754028

    It’s not the same league, it’s not the same ballpark, it’s not even the same fucking sport. What Starmer did was a likely a “gaffe”. What Sunak did was a pre-planned act of crass insensitivity and political stupidity. Starmer spilled some food on his shirt, Sunak threw over the table and beat the electoral chances of his party senseless with a spoon.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Nigel Farage is an absolute hero. A decent funny pint drinking English gent. Liberal and authentic, funny and charismatic. And smarter than all of the other leaders put together. There is a reason he is the most popular politician in the country

    Enough!
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    Smart51Smart51 Posts: 58
    edited June 8
    Lib Dems forming the official opposition has been plausible for much of the last year. Recent events have made it more likely. Previously I'd gauged it as a 2% possibility based on the Tory record over the last 5 years. Stack on top of that Farage's return, and on top of that Sunak turning into Mr Bean, and I think it more like a 20% possibility.

    Several of the poll modelers are putting the Lib Dems on 50 - 65 seats. I think that really is their ceiling. There are now more predictions of the Tories dropping below 100. Under the circumstances, that isn't their floor. While I don't think the Tories are sub 50 just yet, I'd guess the probability of getting there in the next 4 weeks is about 20%.
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    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 700
    edited June 8
    Ha! Don;t know if @leon has seen this, but Matthew Parris asked chatgpt if Sunak should have stayed in France. Even chatgpt has more empathy than Rishi!

    Or, these days, the PM could have asked ChatGPT. I did — forgetting, incidentally, to tell the app that the pressing TV interview was only a recording. This was the virtual robot’s reply: “As the prime minister, attending a memorial event for the D-Day landings is a significant duty, reflecting respect and honor [sic] for the sacrifices made during World War II. This event is not only important to veterans and their families but also to the international community, particularly given the presence of other world leaders. Missing it for a TV interview could be seen as prioritising personal political gains over national and historical responsibilities, which might not be well-received by the public and other nations. It would be advisable to attend the D-Day memorial and find another time for the interview.”

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/is-it-too-late-for-sunak-to-fall-on-his-sword-rr63k0p8h
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634

    Sandpit said:

    OK, PB competition time.

    @Leon is going to be in Kiev this evening, and for a couple of days.

    He’s agreed that he will put £10 (or 500 of the local currency) into a charity pot, and wants me to nominate exactly where this should happen.

    Any ideas as to where we should make him go?

    Let’s not go too far from the Kiev metro system, as he doesn’t have a car.

    I'd vote for the Moshchun memorial.

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/21/7447519/

    'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
    I’d suggest, if it’s still there, tracking down the restaurant on the river beach at the edge of Hidro Park, that has a wolf chained up in a cage outside the back and howling at passers by.

    Probably long gone. Nice spot though.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it. A lot of people today don't really believe in that.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited June 8
    FPT
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories to win more seats in Scotland than London for the first time ever?

    The Conservatives won more seats in Scotland than in London in every election from 1931 to 1970. And even then the crossover was because they gained 32 seats in London in Feb 1974 (yes, really, mostly due to an increased number of seats counted as 'London') rather than due to going massively backwards in Scotland.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982

    Ha! Don;t know if @leon has seen this, but Matthew Parris asked chatgpt if Sunak should have stayed in France. Even chatgpt has more empathy than Rishi!

    Or, these days, the PM could have asked ChatGPT. I did — forgetting, incidentally, to tell the app that the pressing TV interview was only a recording. This was the virtual robot’s reply: “As the prime minister, attending a memorial event for the D-Day landings is a significant duty, reflecting respect and honor [sic] for the sacrifices made during World War II. This event is not only important to veterans and their families but also to the international community, particularly given the presence of other world leaders. Missing it for a TV interview could be seen as prioritising personal political gains over national and historical responsibilities, which might not be well-received by the public and other nations. It would be advisable to attend the D-Day memorial and find another time for the interview.”

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/is-it-too-late-for-sunak-to-fall-on-his-sword-rr63k0p8h

    I asked ChatGPT a followup question which I think Sunak might have done.
    My followup:
    Can I attend some of the events and then sneak back to London to record an interview with ITV?

    ChatGPT:
    Attending some of the D-Day events and then returning to London for a high-profile interview with ITV is a savvy move that allows you to balance both your ceremonial duties and campaign needs. Here’s how you can manage this effectively:

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories to win more seats in Scotland than London for the first time ever?

    The Conservatives won more seats in Scotland than in London in every election from 1931 to 1970. And even then the crossover was because they gained 32 seats in London in Feb 1974 (yes, really, mostly due to an increased number of seats counted as 'London') rather than due to going massively backwards in Scotland.
    I'm not sure that's comparing like with like, in terms of the Greater London boundary as it is today. But stand corrected if so.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    OK, PB competition time.

    @Leon is going to be in Kiev this evening, and for a couple of days.

    He’s agreed that he will put £10 (or 500 of the local currency) into a charity pot, and wants me to nominate exactly where this should happen.

    Any ideas as to where we should make him go?

    Let’s not go too far from the Kiev metro system, as he doesn’t have a car.

    I'd vote for the Moshchun memorial.

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/21/7447519/

    'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
    I’d suggest, if it’s still there, tracking down the restaurant on the river beach at the edge of Hidro Park, that has a wolf chained up in a cage outside the back and howling at passers by.

    Probably long gone. Nice spot though.
    For many many reasons, this place would be appropriate

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babi_Yar_Holocaust_Memorial_Center

    One of those reasons: it would wind up the anti-Semites
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    edited June 8

    I AM BAT.

    Good grief. Horse Bat’s pointless posts from this morning are now in a header.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,454
    edited June 8
    @DM_Andy

    Ed Davey is also four, if we count former and future.

    Richard Tracey 1997
    David Shaw 2001
    Helen Whately 2010
    James Berry 2017 when ED got his constituency back.

    David Steel is about 6, depending whom we count.

    Three in the strict terms.
    One was a future MP he defeated when they both lost - Steel coming 2nd and the other 3rd.
    And one MSP and one MEP.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited June 8
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories to win more seats in Scotland than London for the first time ever?

    The Conservatives won more seats in Scotland than in London in every election from 1931 to 1970. And even then the crossover was because they gained 32 seats in London in Feb 1974 (yes, really, mostly due to an increased number of seats counted as 'London') rather than due to going massively backwards in Scotland.
    I'm not sure that's comparing like with like, in terms of the Greater London boundary as it is today. But stand corrected if so.
    Until the late 1950s the Conservatives were frequently the largest party in Scotland. In 1955 they got 55% of the vote and and 36 seats. In London County (so not including Middlesex) they won 15. In 1935 they won 39 seats in London county and 43 in Scotland.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it. A lot of people today don't really believe in that.
    Interesting, do you have some examples of Farage defending the free speech of people he disagrees with?
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329
    Rotherham going Reform is just about plausible, but I think it requires Labour to fall back from their 2019 result, since the boundary changes appear to have added wards where Labour have been winning recently. The required conversion rates of a net 75% of CON 2019 votes going to Reform (minus Labour) is a good plausible guess for me in a world where overall party preferences don't develop favourably to Labour. So then the question is whether the addition in 2024 of Greens and Islamic interest candidates costs Labour more than the localised effect of the upward national trend.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,105
    In reply to DavidL on the previous thread, the problem is that the Conservatives have become completely ideologically unmoored. The issue with the Centrist dad philosophy is that it leads to managerialism and politicians who don't really believe in anything (contrast with conviction politicians like Blair and Thatcher) and you end up with incoherent policy making.

    Take the national service policy as an example. I have never heard any Conservative politician mention this for 14 years, so where has it come from? I suspect the answer is that you had a bunch of SPADs with a whiteboard brainstorming policies that would appeal to older votes.

    Of course you don't want to be too ideological (e.g. Corbyn) but you do need some ideology as a starting point so that you can create a narrative of what needs to be done and then develop the appropriate policy framework. Without that you end up with the situation where you just have tactics and you throw out things as sops to the electorate, which may work for a while, but eventually the electorate will see what you are doing and will be furious at all the breaches of trust.

    David also says that a divided right, will lead to Lab being in power for a decade. That is quite likely anyway as each government in my lifetime has 10 years+ The problem with saving the Tories is that they are parachuting SPADs into "safe" seats, which will just lead to more managerialism.

    Better to have a revolution on the right and see where the chips land - whether that be merger, alliance, takeover or simply the Cons winning back their lost voters by moving to the right.
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    I see @williamglenn has already brigaded the community notes with his rubbish:


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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it. A lot of people today don't really believe in that.
    Interesting, do you have some examples of Farage defending the free speech of people he disagrees with?
    He backed Gina Miller after she was debanked.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    Did Keir Starmer make his own D-Day gaffe by appearing to conflate it with VE Day?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1798604257991754028

    No
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    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 100
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
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    I don't know who @DoubleDutch is but they're writing some quality posts.
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    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 100
    edited June 8
    Anyway, I've wasted enough breath on Nigel Farage. I've better things to do than waste energy on a serial loser like him.

    Most popular 'eh? He has stood 7 times to be an MP and 7 times the British electorate have told him to fuck off
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    Been out with my friend for a pint. She's a teacher. She's enthusiastically voting Labour. She's also been busy and had no idea about DDay gate lol
    She tried to talk me out of fluffing Farages ego in Nodge South. She failed.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286

    Anyway, I've wasted enough breath on Nigel Farage. I've better things to do than waste energy on a serial loser like him.

    Most popular 'eh? He has stood 7 times to be an MP and 7 times the British electorate have told him to fuck off

    But he won the Brexit vote.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Incidentally, another investigation drags its feet because I suspect the IOPC is afraid of the answer:

    https://www.policeconduct.gov.uk/news/iopc-investigation-south-wales-police-actions-prior-deaths-two-boys-ely-near-conclusion

    The Ely facts are simple. Two violent young criminals in the course of committing a crime killed themselves. Tragic, but their own fault.

    The police do not appear to be directly involved but have been forced into it by three things (1) the those criminals' parents, frantic to avoid the well-deserved blame they should be getting (2) the craven behaviour of the Drakeford government and (3) the folly of the police themselves in putting out incorrect statements.

    Which means that if (when) the police are exonerated there will be screams of 'whitewash.'
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,686
    edited June 8

    Sandpit said:

    OK, PB competition time.

    @Leon is going to be in Kiev this evening, and for a couple of days.

    He’s agreed that he will put £10 (or 500 of the local currency) into a charity pot, and wants me to nominate exactly where this should happen.

    Any ideas as to where we should make him go?

    Let’s not go too far from the Kiev metro system, as he doesn’t have a car.

    I'd vote for the Moshchun memorial.

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/21/7447519/

    'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
    Not to kill the mood, but Babi Yar would be worth visiting and one would likely need a strong drink afterwards. I believe it featured in a distinguished British novel.

    Edit: beaten to it by the lad hisself!
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836
    Leon said:

    Nigel Farage is an absolute hero. A decent funny pint drinking English gent. Liberal and authentic, funny and charismatic. And smarter than all of the other leaders put together. There is a reason he is the most popular politician in the country

    Enough!

    Liberal? Funny? I’m not saying he’s stupid but smarter than the other leaders put together - including the one who is about to take his party from its worst defeat to the biggest win in less than 5 years - really?

    I’ll give you pint drinking and charismatic although the latter is more the superficial charm redolent of psychopaths.
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    booksellerbookseller Posts: 440

    Did Keir Starmer make his own D-Day gaffe by appearing to conflate it with VE Day?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1798604257991754028

    Nice try 😂
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyway, I've wasted enough breath on Nigel Farage. I've better things to do than waste energy on a serial loser like him.

    Most popular 'eh? He has stood 7 times to be an MP and 7 times the British electorate have told him to fuck off

    But he won the Brexit vote.
    He wasn't even a part of Vote Leave, the official Leave campaign, as they knew he was so toxic to millions of potential Leave voters.

    The Leave campaign was far more than Farage, it was dominated primarily by Tories which is the only reason why we had the referendum in the first place. The Tory schism on Europe had existed since Maastricht long predating Farage joining politics.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyway, I've wasted enough breath on Nigel Farage. I've better things to do than waste energy on a serial loser like him.

    Most popular 'eh? He has stood 7 times to be an MP and 7 times the British electorate have told him to fuck off

    But he won the Brexit vote.
    Not on his own he didn’t.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,863



    The accomodation tonight and the bike store!
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 80
    Is it possible Sunak will resign?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
    Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist

    It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.

    Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no

    That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?

  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
    Nunu5 said:

    Is it possible Sunak will resign?

    Its 100% guaranteed he will . . . by 5 July.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it. A lot of people today don't really believe in that.
    Interesting, do you have some examples of Farage defending the free speech of people he disagrees with?
    Here's a list from the world of ideas: there are not just two biological sexes (which I think is actually just science, depending on how you look at it); there are more than two genders; support for Palestine and Palestinians as expressed through public demonstrations.

    Your guess, and I'm not offering 1000/1, is whether the Reform UK manifesto wants to (a) keep these ideas legal or (b) ban them.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    carnforth said:

    Sunak has, per twitter rumour, cancelled all interviews today, on and off the record.

    Now a slim but meaningful chance my genius "resign during the campaign" strategy from a while back is imminent.

    It's not impossible that he edges out, but still seems less likely.

    In the currently mad atmosphere, though, who knows.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    Sandpit said:

    OK, PB competition time.

    @Leon is going to be in Kiev this evening, and for a couple of days.

    He’s agreed that he will put £10 (or 500 of the local currency) into a charity pot, and wants me to nominate exactly where this should happen.

    Any ideas as to where we should make him go?

    Let’s not go too far from the Kiev metro system, as he doesn’t have a car.

    I'd vote for the Moshchun memorial.

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/21/7447519/

    'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
    Not to kill the mood, but Babi Yar would be worth visiting and one would likely need a strong drink afterwards. I believe it featured in a distinguished British novel.

    Edit: beaten to it by the lad hisself!
    Hah. Gratz on getting the relevance, anyways. If I go I’ll have that strong drink afterwards on your behalf
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    https://x.com/danielmgmoylan/status/1799385744466989530?s=19
    I'll take stuff that worked in her head for a fiver, John
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    I agree, resigning seems less likely than a forced removal.

    That's not impossible, though, ether, with the state Tory MP"s are in.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238
    Farage was superficially attractive to voters when he stood for Brexit. Now that Brexit is a dead duck my guess is that his popularity will dissipate and 10% is likely to be as good as it gets. If you watch the vox pops no one even claims he offers anything other than being a minor celebrity with a camera crew attached.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,841
    Wow, what a mess the Cons are getting themselves in. Reform are a sell on the seats spreads imo but I'm not doing it. You'd need a chunky unit stake to make it worthwhile and with that comes a serious downside. I'll be horrified enough if that shower have a spectacular night without adding in a big financial hit.

    TBH although it's exciting I'm not in love with this whole development. I'd prefer a nice traditional Labour landslide a la 45 and 97 with the Conservatives battered and bloodied but still breathing - and Farage can skulk off to America. Let's not be succumbing to that sort of politics just because some other countries are.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    Sandpit said:

    OK, PB competition time.

    @Leon is going to be in Kiev this evening, and for a couple of days.

    He’s agreed that he will put £10 (or 500 of the local currency) into a charity pot, and wants me to nominate exactly where this should happen.

    Any ideas as to where we should make him go?

    Let’s not go too far from the Kiev metro system, as he doesn’t have a car.

    I'd vote for the Moshchun memorial.

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/21/7447519/

    'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
    Not to kill the mood, but Babi Yar would be worth visiting and one would likely need a strong drink afterwards. I believe it featured in a distinguished British novel.

    Edit: beaten to it by the lad hisself!
    Btw I am going anyway. It’s one of the reasons I’m coming to Kyiv. How could I not go there!?

    I’ve just been writing about the Kishinev pogrom for the gazette. Quite astonishingly pivotal in world history
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329

    In reply to DavidL on the previous thread, the problem is that the Conservatives have become completely ideologically unmoored. The issue with the Centrist dad philosophy is that it leads to managerialism and politicians who don't really believe in anything (contrast with conviction politicians like Blair and Thatcher) and you end up with incoherent policy making.

    Take the national service policy as an example. I have never heard any Conservative politician mention this for 14 years, so where has it come from? I suspect the answer is that you had a bunch of SPADs with a whiteboard brainstorming policies that would appeal to older votes.

    Of course you don't want to be too ideological (e.g. Corbyn) but you do need some ideology as a starting point so that you can create a narrative of what needs to be done and then develop the appropriate policy framework. Without that you end up with the situation where you just have tactics and you throw out things as sops to the electorate, which may work for a while, but eventually the electorate will see what you are doing and will be furious at all the breaches of trust.

    David also says that a divided right, will lead to Lab being in power for a decade. That is quite likely anyway as each government in my lifetime has 10 years+ The problem with saving the Tories is that they are parachuting SPADs into "safe" seats, which will just lead to more managerialism.

    Better to have a revolution on the right and see where the chips land - whether that be merger, alliance, takeover or simply the Cons winning back their lost voters by moving to the right.

    You think that centrist managerialism & opportunism is on the opposite side of the spectrum to Tony Blair? It's hard to know what to make of this.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
    Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist

    It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.

    Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no

    That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?

    The more striking thing, apart from this disingenuous culture war bollocks, is the militarisation of the police. There's a reason you separate military and the police. One fights the enemies of the state, the other serves and protects the people. When the military becomes both, then the enemies of the state tend to become the people. Many of whose will get “automatic life sentences” - hopefully after a trial? Reform are clearly fascists. But most people know that.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    edited June 8

    I agree, resigning seems less likely than a forced removal.

    That's not impossible, though, ether, with the state Tory MP"s are in.

    There is no mechanism anyone can identify for a forced removal.
    A forced resignation is within the range of possibilities. But I don't see how he can be removed if he is unwilling to resign.

    Edit. This is because there are no MP's to send letters in.
    Nor any 1922 Committee to receive them.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
    Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist

    It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.

    Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no

    That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?

    Ignoring the distorted way you are attempting to twist a viewpoint you disagree with, the very claim was that he supported speech he disagrees with but is banning it, which is clearly not free speech.

    Plus of course:

    Christianity attempts to teach all children that they are intrinsically sinful by virtue of original sin, and this sin can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated ...

    Should teaching about Christianity be banned by your logic?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    I'm sticking my neck out and saying the Conservatives won't go below 25% and 130 seats. Old habits die hard for most core Tory voters.
  • Options
    Can we have a truce on culture war, it's boring.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
    Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist

    It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.

    Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no

    That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?

    Critical Race Theory is an acdemic discipline used to evaluate historical sources and attitudes. It's aimed at academic historians, and is 'taught', such as it is, to people studying history at degree level.
    It doesn't teach children *anything*, because it's not taught to children,
    It doesn't teach *anyone* that they are intrinsically racist, it teaches that decisions can be intrinsically racist without being consciously so (although they can be consciously racist too).
    It doesn't teach anyone about *denying* anything, it teaches bout *thinking* about everything.

    So apart from everything, you got nothing right.
    I think the term's being used imprecisely, so better to encompass anything they like. We know from Florida where this ends up - teachers being forced to teach kids about the merits of enslaving Africans.
  • Options
    AbandonedHopeAbandonedHope Posts: 110

    I see @williamglenn has already brigaded the community notes with his rubbish:


    I took great pleasure in answering “No” when asked if the community note was helpful.

    And then telling them why it was unhelpful.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
    Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist

    It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.

    Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no

    That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?

    The more striking thing, apart from this disingenuous culture war bollocks, is the militarisation of the police. There's a reason you separate military and the police. One fights the enemies of the state, the other serves and protects the people. When the military becomes both, then the enemies of the state tend to become the people. Many of whose will get “automatic life sentences” - hopefully after a trial? Reform are clearly fascists. But most people know that.
    Oh don’t be fucking stupid. You’re brighter than this

    Do you really honestly believe Reform UK are “clearly fascist”? Do you honestly think they are “clearly” in the same genre as Hitler and Mussolini?

    Either you do think this and you have an iq of 7 or you don’t and it’s pitiful and childish hyperbole which serves no one. Why not use the big boo words for when the real fascists arrive?

    I might as well call starmer a Trotskyite. But I won’t. Because he’s not. And I’m not a childish moron
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248
    dixiedean said:

    I agree, resigning seems less likely than a forced removal.

    That's not impossible, though, ether, with the state Tory MP"s are in.

    There is no mechanism anyone can identify for a forced removal.
    A forced resignation is within the range of possibilities. But I don't see how he can be removed if he is unwilling to resign.

    Edit. This is because there are no MP's to send letters in.
    Nor any 1922 Committee to receive them.
    Plus, the Conservatives would look absurd ditching him at this point

    Which leaves the 'not quite dead yet' option. Franco in the 1970s, Soviet Presidents in the early 1980s. Have as few appearances or interviews as possible. Wheel him out to wave and smile, but wheel him back in shortly afterwards.

    Actually, pretty much the Boris approach in 2019.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
    Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist

    It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.

    Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no

    That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?

    Critical Race Theory is an acdemic discipline used to evaluate historical sources and attitudes. It's aimed at academic historians, and is 'taught', such as it is, to people studying history at degree level.
    It doesn't teach children *anything*, because it's not taught to children,
    It doesn't teach *anyone* that they are intrinsically racist, it teaches that decisions can be intrinsically racist without being consciously so (although they can be consciously racist too).
    It doesn't teach anyone about *denying* anything, it teaches bout *thinking* about everything.

    So apart from everything, you got nothing right.
    It is absolutely taught, in diluted form, in British schools
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117

    I agree, resigning seems less likely than a forced removal.

    That's not impossible, though, ether, with the state Tory MP"s are in.

    He might announce the world situation is perilous enough he is going to focus on that and Penny will lead the reelection effort.........
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    edited June 8
    dixiedean said:

    I agree, resigning seems less likely than a forced removal.

    That's not impossible, though, ether, with the state Tory MP"s are in.

    There is no mechanism anyone can identify for a forced removal.
    A forced resignation is within the range of possibilities. But I don't see how he can be removed if he is unwilling to resign.

    Edit. This is because there are no MP's to send letters in.
    Nor any 1922 Committee to receive them.
    Although an essentially no-option resign with honour offer put to him might be essentially the same thing.

    I have no idea other, but from the above reports and others, Tory MP's are ready to do almost anything.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,249
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
    Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist

    It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.

    Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no

    That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?

    Critical Race Theory is an acdemic discipline used to evaluate historical sources and attitudes. It's aimed at academic historians, and is 'taught', such as it is, to people studying history at degree level.
    It doesn't teach children *anything*, because it's not taught to children,
    It doesn't teach *anyone* that they are intrinsically racist, it teaches that decisions can be intrinsically racist without being consciously so (although they can be consciously racist too).
    It doesn't teach anyone about *denying* anything, it teaches bout *thinking* about everything.

    So apart from everything, you got nothing right.
    It is absolutely taught, in diluted form, in British schools
    Homeopathically diluted.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm sticking my neck out and saying the Conservatives won't go below 25% and 130 seats. Old habits die hard for most core Tory voters.

    Agreed. 2 million or whatever Tories arent suddenly going to sit on their hands because Sunak skived off an afternoon, however shit it was
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
    Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist

    It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.

    Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no

    That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?

    Ignoring the distorted way you are attempting to twist a viewpoint you disagree with, the very claim was that he supported speech he disagrees with but is banning it, which is clearly not free speech.

    Plus of course:

    Christianity attempts to teach all children that they are intrinsically sinful by virtue of original sin, and this sin can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated ...

    Should teaching about Christianity be banned by your logic?
    Hopelessly woke. All that 'meek inheriting the Earth' and 'who is my neighbour' stuff.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,905
    edited June 8
    If you go and look at the reform manifesto what you can say is that it comprises 'a plan'. Not one that I would necessarily vote for but it will be different to what both Labour and the Conservatives wheel out, ie a load of vague soundbites trying to please everyone. The luxury perhaps of not expecting to form a government.

    Regarding the stuff about abolishing critical race theory, and 'reforming' the equalities act, and ending the hate speech stuff... it matters to some people, and there will be a whole load of other people who will be completely neutral about it and it won't stop them from voting for the reform party.

    In the end their position on free speech is not that different to the other parties and indeed the prevailing legal situation in the UK - censorious and illiberal. But what may happen is that because of the reform party the right wing criticisms of 'woke' will enter the political mainstream.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm sticking my neck out and saying the Conservatives won't go below 25% and 130 seats. Old habits die hard for most core Tory voters.

    Agreed. 2 million or whatever Tories arent suddenly going to sit on their hands because Sunak skived off an afternoon, however shit it was
    I am inclined to agree with both of you. Maybe 150 seats and 28% in the end, a significant base in the Commons and the country to be able to rebuild over time.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,486
    Leon said:

    Nigel Farage is an absolute hero. A decent funny pint drinking English gent. Liberal and authentic, funny and charismatic. And smarter than all of the other leaders put together. There is a reason he is the most popular politician in the country

    Enough!

    Flynn ripped him and the other dummies a new arsehole last night, showed them up for the useless vacuous arses that they are. Their faces were a picture as he ripped them to pieces.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm sticking my neck out and saying the Conservatives won't go below 25% and 130 seats. Old habits die hard for most core Tory voters.

    Agreed. 2 million or whatever Tories arent suddenly going to sit on their hands because Sunak skived off an afternoon, however shit it was
    I am inclined to agree with both of you. Maybe 150 seats and 28% in the end, a significant base in the Commons and the country to be able to rebuild over time.
    Dreamcasting. Bless
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329
    darkage said:

    If you go and look at the reform manifesto what you can say is that it comprises 'a plan'. Not one that I would necessarily vote for but it will be different to what both Labour and the Conservatives wheel out, ie a load of vague soundbites trying to please everyone. The luxury perhaps of not expecting to form a government.

    Regarding the stuff about abolishing critical race theory, and 'reforming' the equalities act, and ending the hate speech stuff... it matters to some people, and there will be a whole load of other people who will be completely neutral about it and it won't stop them from voting for the reform party.

    In the end their position on free speech is not that different to the other parties and indeed the prevailing legal situation in the UK - censorious and illiberal. But what you will find now is that because of the reform party the right wing criticisms of 'woke' will enter the political mainstream.

    You say they will enter the mainstream - but hasn't this been the position of the elected government since at least the arrival of Truss?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm sticking my neck out and saying the Conservatives won't go below 25% and 130 seats. Old habits die hard for most core Tory voters.

    Agreed. 2 million or whatever Tories arent suddenly going to sit on their hands because Sunak skived off an afternoon, however shit it was
    I am inclined to agree with both of you. Maybe 150 seats and 28% in the end, a significant base in the Commons and the country to be able to rebuild over time.
    Reforms surge has not (yet) come from Tories who've stayed put. I expect it to fade back as time goes on and yeah, 25 to 28% with Labour high 30s, 97 style result plus 20 or minus 40
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Andy_JS said:
    12 days for assaulting a national leader??????
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    kinabalu said:

    Wow, what a mess the Cons are getting themselves in. Reform are a sell on the seats spreads imo but I'm not doing it. You'd need a chunky unit stake to make it worthwhile and with that comes a serious downside. I'll be horrified enough if that shower have a spectacular night without adding in a big financial hit.

    TBH although it's exciting I'm not in love with this whole development. I'd prefer a nice traditional Labour landslide a la 45 and 97 with the Conservatives battered and bloodied but still breathing - and Farage can skulk off to America. Let's not be succumbing to that sort of politics just because some other countries are.

    will you now be voting Conservative to keep them alive ?
  • Options
    Tories between 100 and 250 I reckon.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,486

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.

    It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.

    No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
    You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
    I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.

    And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
    Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
    How the hell is Farage liberal !?

    I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
    The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
    Except he doesn't.

    He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)

    And as per @Chris previous thread:

    “Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.

    Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.

    All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.

    Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.

    Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.

    The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.

    Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
    Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist

    It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.

    Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no

    That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?

    Critical Race Theory is an acdemic discipline used to evaluate historical sources and attitudes. It's aimed at academic historians, and is 'taught', such as it is, to people studying history at degree level.
    It doesn't teach children *anything*, because it's not taught to children,
    It doesn't teach *anyone* that they are intrinsically racist, it teaches that decisions can be intrinsically racist without being consciously so (although they can be consciously racist too).
    It doesn't teach anyone about *denying* anything, it teaches bout *thinking* about everything.

    So apart from everything, you got nothing right.
    It is a load of absolute bollox by a bunch of halfwitted clowns, smart alecs pretending they are superior and having to show the plebs the way.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    https://x.com/johngramlich/status/1799074066122543190

    A growing share of registered voters in the United States say a person's gender is determined by their sex at birth:

    53% said this in September 2017
    56% in June 2021
    60% in May 2022
    65% in April 2024

    This view has become more common in both parties.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,159

    dixiedean said:

    I agree, resigning seems less likely than a forced removal.

    That's not impossible, though, ether, with the state Tory MP"s are in.

    There is no mechanism anyone can identify for a forced removal.
    A forced resignation is within the range of possibilities. But I don't see how he can be removed if he is unwilling to resign.

    Edit. This is because there are no MP's to send letters in.
    Nor any 1922 Committee to receive them.
    Although an essentially no-option resign with honour offer put to him might be essentially the same thing.

    I have no idea other, but from the above reports and others, Tory MP's are ready to do almost anything.
    They'd be better off trying to force improvements in the CCHQ campaign team than trying to get Rishi to resign.

    It's too late for personnel changes to be effective, but trying to rein in some of their wilder ideas might help. Stick to the core campaign themes that were (presumably) agreed before the election was called, don't try anything that hasn't been properly prepared, talk to local media by preference and try not to attract unnecessary attention.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Andy_JS said:
    This is genuinely the weirdest story of the week. Why isn’t he named? Why did he do it? He appears to be foreign. “No link to Denmark”. He assaults the Danish prime minister in public - ok she’s fine but it could have been a knife attack or acid or a machete

    And he gets…. 12 days in custody and is not named?? Am I missing something? Maybe he’s the son of Xi jinping??
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,087
    Leon said:

    Nigel Farage is an absolute hero. A decent funny pint drinking English gent. Liberal and authentic, funny and charismatic. And smarter than all of the other leaders put together. There is a reason he is the most popular politician in the country

    Enough!

    I agree with all that except for "decent" and "authentic". I suspect he has a bit of a temper and drinks wine or G&Ts in private. His performance is an act - a bit like Boris. But it fools a lot of people.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906
    Thanks, by the way, to whoever (ydoethur?) told me you could get the T20 on Youtube. I'm thoroughly enjoying Warwickshire (or 'Birmingham', as they mysteriously insist on calling themselves for this format) against Durham and recommend it to you now. I got overexcited before the game and thought the odds on Durham at 2.5ish very generous, and put 50p on them. Tightly poised at the break and tempted to cash out for a 20p profit. I think what appears to be a decent score for Durham is actually quite reachable.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,087

    Tories between 100 and 250 I reckon.

    I reckon between 40 and 280.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,743

    Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.

    Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.

    And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).

    What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.

    In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.

    I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...

    Sounds like it's going well, RP. Appreciate your updates - I've moved back from Scotland to England because of a family illness, so hard to get a sense of how its playing out on the ground.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329

    https://x.com/johngramlich/status/1799074066122543190

    A growing share of registered voters in the United States say a person's gender is determined by their sex at birth:

    53% said this in September 2017
    56% in June 2021
    60% in May 2022
    65% in April 2024

    This view has become more common in both parties.

    I wonder if this was driven by don't knows becoming more informed and/or confident by being exposed to the debate. It certainly didn't feel like there was ever anything like 50/50 support for this kind of position.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906
    Barnesian said:

    Tories between 100 and 250 I reckon.

    I reckon between 40 and 280.
    I reckon between 50and 75.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,486

    https://x.com/johngramlich/status/1799074066122543190

    A growing share of registered voters in the United States say a person's gender is determined by their sex at birth:

    53% said this in September 2017
    56% in June 2021
    60% in May 2022
    65% in April 2024

    This view has become more common in both parties.

    Shock horror 65% realise reality
This discussion has been closed.