I am these days wary of Opinium's methodology when last week TSE indicated no change in raw data, but a modest swing from Labour to Con. I will be less sceptical if the raw data is also trending towards the Cons/Reform/LDs.
That said I suspect Opinium are on the more realistic and dropping Labour level.
Opinium have dropped Labour's level from 41% on 24 May to 42% now.
Seriously, nothing has changed with Opinium's Labour level for months - everything is MOE.
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
It's zero net immigration, not zero immigration. Arguably it is far too liberal.
net zero immigration. Quite a good line.
The problem is that surely the correct policy should really be to encourage young people to move and settle in the UK and start families here; either that or you have to massively incentivise people to have children, which they aren't doing in sufficient numbers at present.
The simplest way of getting to net zero immigration would be to force people to emigrate on their 68th birthday...
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
How many soldiers does Catterick Garrison have? around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families. From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
I'd want PR on a point of principle. It is then up to the voters to decide what to do with real democracy.
The only argument against PR is continuity. We’ve been FPTP for centuries so why change. On any logical understanding of democracy PR of some sort is a no brainer.
And multi member constituencies under STV preserve the local MP link while protecting you from the bad luck of a shit one. Imagine if you were a resident of Clacton or South West Norfolk after the next election and needed to talk to your MP about something like the local hospital.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
Much more likely Starmer would have the Welsh system, constituencies of six members, closed party list d'Hondt. Like the worst kind of PR.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
How many soldiers does Catterick Garrison have? around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families. From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
Our resident squaddie, Dura Ace, tells us that there wasn't much reaction to the D-Day thing from those in service.
Not sure Rishi is entirely safe though. I expect he's lost the pensioner vote locally.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
How many soldiers does Catterick Garrison have? around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families. From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
I commented about this yesterday.There is also an RAF base at Leeming. I managed to get £25 on Labour at 7-2.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
Much more likely Starmer would have the Welsh system, constituencies of six members, closed party list d'Hondt. Like the worst kind of PR.
That's not d'Hondt but deliberately buggered d'Hondt - or does Scotland only have the latter? The one which gives the opposite effec to FPTP.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
Much more likely Starmer would have the Welsh system, constituencies of six members, closed party list d'Hondt. Like the worst kind of PR.
Which is why we need to elect plenty of Lib Dems in this parliament to make the case.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
How many soldiers does Catterick Garrison have? around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families. From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
I commented about this yesterday.There is also an RAF base at Leeming. I managed to get £25 on Labour at a 7-2.
It isn’t that simple. Many won’t live/vote there for a start.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
I am these days wary of Opinium's methodology when last week TSE indicated no change in raw data, but a modest swing from Labour to Con. I will be less sceptical if the raw data is also trending towards the Cons/Reform/LDs.
That said I suspect Opinium are on the more realistic and dropping Labour level.
Opinium have dropped Labour's level from 41% on 24 May to 42% now.
Seriously, nothing has changed with Opinium's Labour level for months - everything is MOE.
The only number to change has been "time until the next election"- three and a half weeks and falling.
On Philip Blond, he might not be totally out of the loop.
A quick bit of digging reveals that James Forsyth, for instance, has a senior position on Blond's Respublica thinktank's advisory board, and James Forsyth is something of a Sunak insider. So if he claims that there's "chat": of Sunak considering resigning, there might be something in it.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
Much more likely Starmer would have the Welsh system, constituencies of six members, closed party list d'Hondt. Like the worst kind of PR.
It would be a hard no from me for any closed list system. Exception being some form of top up system. Say 500 FPTP and a rebalancing 150 proportionally. Even then I'd favour the best polling losers rather than a Party List.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
How many soldiers does Catterick Garrison have? around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families. From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
I commented about this yesterday.There is also an RAF base at Leeming. I managed to get £25 on Labour at a 7-2.
It isn’t that simple. Many won’t live/vote there for a start.
If you drive through the Camp that’s not the impression you get. Loads of people living on site.
Savanta poll is the mirror of the Opinium one. Following a movement to Con last week it has swung back this. Savanta does move around a little more but this was by far the Cons friendliest poll and it now has a 20% margin. We are back to everyone having a lead of over 15% - which was where we were before the campaign
This is in a context where Cons have posted their lowest percentage with one regular pollster and have matched their lowest Truss era poll in two others.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
Much more likely Starmer would have the Welsh system, constituencies of six members, closed party list d'Hondt. Like the worst kind of PR.
I'd probably go for a holyrood style system but modified. 500 FPTP constituencies plus 100 top up proportional seats across the regions and nations (9 regions, 3 nations, 7 to 10 each) and 'up to' 33 additional members - every party exceeding 3% of the national vote gets a guaranteed MP Edit - plus I'd offer Gibraltar a referendum on joining the UK, retaining their existing arrangement but getting 1 MP.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
It’s a matter of principle. If an election resulted in the victory of parties to which I was opposed, so be it!
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
It’s a matter of principle. If an election resulted in the victory of parties to which I was opposed, so be it!
My problem with it is that in coalitions minor parties can become disproportionately powerful.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
How many soldiers does Catterick Garrison have? around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families. From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
I commented about this yesterday.There is also an RAF base at Leeming. I managed to get £25 on Labour at a 7-2.
It isn’t that simple. Many won’t live/vote there for a start.
If you drive through the Camp that’s not the impression you get. Loads of people living on site.
On topic - am I alone in thinking there won't be a Ref/Con cross-over this weekend or anytime this campaign. There can always be a rogue poll and Redfield Wilton or YouGov are friendly to Ref but a pattern of polls putting Ref second seems very unlikely. D-Day was bad but short of Sunak turning up in full nazi re-enactors uniform it wasn't going to do that.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
How many soldiers does Catterick Garrison have? around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families. From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
I commented about this yesterday.There is also an RAF base at Leeming. I managed to get £25 on Labour at a 7-2.
It isn’t that simple. Many won’t live/vote there for a start.
If you drive through the Camp that’s not the impression you get. Loads of people living on site.
Not at the weekend/permanently.
Depends what we are discussing. Catterick is kids. There for a while only and registered at their parents if old enough to vote. Leeming will see lots go home at the weekend.
On Philip Blond, he might not be totally out of the loop.
A quick bit of digging reveals that James Forsyth, for instance, has a senior position on Blond's Respublica thinktank's advisory board, and James Forsyth is something of a Sunak insider. So if he reports "chat": of Sunak considering resigning, there might be something in it.
"something of a Sunak insider" - they were at school together and Sunak was best man at his wedding
If you want to.know why the country is in the state it is in, look no further than to the tory campaign. The same talent running that, is running the country ...all of it🤯🤯🤯🤯 I am surprised the bloody wheels haven't come off altogether.
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
The other day I said Rishi looked deflated on the D-Day apology interview so it would not surprise me if he wants to throw in the towel but I really cannot see it actually happening. What would be the point?
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
The constituencies would be bigger, sure. But that isn't an insurmountable issue. Take a look at some of the Canadian FPTP ones. No reason why you couldn't speak to your MP Online. Cumbria would probably be a 5 member constituency. So would the City of Manchester. You could also speak with an MP more likely to "get" your particular issue. My previous MP was more loyal than @ HYUFD. No point lobbying him, or moaning about a government policy that adversely affected me. The Conservative government, in whichever iteration it was at the time, was always correct, wise and benevolent.
I apologise for my wild optimism earlier. The winning margin was 36 not 20. England conceded far too many runs, especially in the power play. They need to drop Bairstow. He is out of sorts. Australia look the best team in the tournament for me.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
It’s a matter of principle. If an election resulted in the victory of parties to which I was opposed, so be it!
My problem with it is that in coalitions minor parties can become disproportionately powerful.
Fact is, there’s no perfect system.
In FPTP minor cabals within parties become disproportionately powerful. Only we get no say at all in those.
On topic - am I alone in thinking there won't be a Ref/Con cross-over this weekend or anytime this campaign. There can always be a rogue poll and Redfield Wilton or YouGov are friendly to Ref but a pattern of polls putting Ref second seems very unlikely. D-Day was bad but short of Sunak turning up in full nazi re-enactors uniform it wasn't going to do that.
The minus 4 in Deltapoll tonight will make bums squeaky, but it could just be a knee jerk (and is only minus 2 from the 2 previous Deltas before last during the campaign), but a sustained Reform second place now seems unlikely.
On Philip Blond, he might not be totally out of the loop.
A quick bit of digging reveals that James Forsyth, for instance, has a senior position on Blond's Respublica thinktank's advisory board, and James Forsyth is something of a Sunak insider. So if he reports "chat": of Sunak considering resigning, there might be something in it.
"something of a Sunak insider" - they were at school together and Sunak was best man at his wedding
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Wrong question, since Tory sources have been repeatedly blindsided by Rishi who seems to be consulting no-one outside a very small team, even assuming he speaks to them.
ETA but see WhisperingOracle's revelation of a possible link from Blond to James Forsyth to Rishi.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
The constituencies would be bigger, sure. But that isn't an insurmountable issue. Take a look at some of the Canadian FPTP ones. No reason why you couldn't speak to your MP Online. Cumbria would probably be a 5 member constituency. So would the City of Manchester. You could also speak with an MP more likely to "get" your particular issue. My previous MP was more loyal than @ HYUFD. No point lobbying him, or moaning about a government policy that adversely affected me. The Conservative government, in whichever iteration it was at the time, was always correct, wise and benevolent.
What's more. I believe it's time for a Labour government. So I will vote for them. Unfortunately, my only option to express this desire is to cast a vote for Ian Lavery. I can only think of a couple of Labour candidates I'd less like to express my confidence in. I can think of plenty of others in the Tories (and other Parties) I'd be more proud to say was my MP. But I can't express my wish to vote Labour by voting for anyone else.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
How many soldiers does Catterick Garrison have? around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families. From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
Our resident squaddie, Dura Ace, tells us that there wasn't much reaction to the D-Day thing from those in service.
Not sure Rishi is entirely safe though. I expect he's lost the pensioner vote locally.
I don't understand why the pensioner voter should be so exercised by Sunak's fairly minor error. Unless they are circa 84/85 everyone avoided National Service, and they'd be approaching 100 to have served during WW2.
Come on Rishi, come out fighting. It's not like the horror-struck journeyman hacks pulled on the khaki and did their bit for King and country, so they are in no position to condemn either.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
It's zero net immigration, not zero immigration. Arguably it is far too liberal.
net zero immigration. Quite a good line.
The problem is that surely the correct policy should really be to encourage young people to move and settle in the UK and start families here; either that or you have to massively incentivise people to have children, which they aren't doing in sufficient numbers at present.
The simplest way of getting to net zero immigration would be to force people to emigrate on their 68th birthday...
Overseas care homes and overseas jails.
Should be worth a few hundred thousands emigrants.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Wrong question, since Tory sources have been repeatedly blindsided by Rishi who seems to be consulting no-one outside a very small team, even assuming he speaks to them.
We could speculate all night I suppose, but even from a quick preliminary scout about it does look as if some members of Sunak's brand of innermost circle that you're describing might also be known to Philip Blond.
On your question of why, if he is considering this, I think it would to be partly to protect his reputation and not receive all the blame.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
Much more likely Starmer would have the Welsh system, constituencies of six members, closed party list d'Hondt. Like the worst kind of PR.
That would be my choice. But slightly larger constituencies. Say 8 members each.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
Yes, you'd think it would appeal to traditionalists: use existing counties and boroughs as constituencies with 3-5 MPs each. Very few changes needed, and it would avoid the worst of the "Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch South"-type names that we have today.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
Some counties would have just one seat.
Hmmmm Norwich South, Norwich North, Norfolk South Mid Norfolk, SW Norfolk, NW Norfolk Great Yarmouth, North Norfolk, Broadland and Fakenham
On topic - am I alone in thinking there won't be a Ref/Con cross-over this weekend or anytime this campaign. There can always be a rogue poll and Redfield Wilton or YouGov are friendly to Ref but a pattern of polls putting Ref second seems very unlikely. D-Day was bad but short of Sunak turning up in full nazi re-enactors uniform it wasn't going to do that.
On topic - am I alone in thinking there won't be a Ref/Con cross-over this weekend or anytime this campaign. There can always be a rogue poll and Redfield Wilton or YouGov are friendly to Ref but a pattern of polls putting Ref second seems very unlikely. D-Day was bad but short of Sunak turning up in full nazi re-enactors uniform it wasn't going to do that.
So far there has been an absence of heavyweight commentators on the right embracing the nihilism about the Tory party.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
It can go on until the point when the entire country is owned by foreigners.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
Any poll showing CON 25+ is good for them at the moment. Maybe MAYBE a chance to move to late 20s by the end
At this point, we remember once again that Con has never polled sub-30% at a GE in their whole history. They scrape that, then it's 1997 redux rather than ELE, and they live to fight another day.
OTOH Sunak is a vastly inferior politician than Major, starting from a much worse position, of course.
What is ELE please?
"Extinction Level Event". An event so devastating it makes the population in question non-sustainable. Like the dinosaur-killing rock. Coined and popularised in the Film "Deep Impact" (1998)
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
Yes, you'd think it would appeal to traditionalists: use existing counties and boroughs as constituencies with 3-5 MPs each. Very few changes needed, and it would avoid the worst of the "Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch South"-type names that we have today.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
Not just them, their children too who are counting on inheriting those assets and in any case they can't cover indefinite higher and higher spending anyway
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
Yes, you'd think it would appeal to traditionalists: use existing counties and boroughs as constituencies with 3-5 MPs each. Very few changes needed, and it would avoid the worst of the "Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch South"-type names that we have today.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
Probably given to the Mail by their ambitious new journalist Boris Johnson who just happens to have a full page article today
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
Not just them, their children too who are counting on inheriting those assets and in any case they can't cover indefinite higher and higher spending anyway
All the more reason to increase IHT and other capital taxes to pay for the transition period, some would say.
It's not as if they worked for those assets, especially with house price inflation so regionally uneven.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
It can go on until the point when the entire country is owned by foreigners.
Then it comes to a hard stop.
In net terms we passed that point a while ago. Its what happens when you ignore a serious deficit for more than 20 years.
Having made my PR statement I favour STV in multi member constituencies of between 3 and 5. Like Ireland. That would keep the traditional Parties together.
You would either have to have huge constituencies or an enormous number of MPs under that system.
A lot of the constituencies would be county or small city size - not too bad.
My borough, Lewisham, has 3 seats. One multi member constituency here would make sense. London has 73, so if we instead had between 20 and 25 across the city I don’t think that would be an issue at all.
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
I don't know if "left leaning" applies to me (centrist globalist liberal according to the tribes thing) but yes. If Con + Ref got over 50% of the vote and could stomach working together, then that's a deal. Yeah, it'd be a gross government from my point of view, but it would be a reflection of the country's wishes.
If Tory + Reform was over 50% then probably under FPTP we’d be labouring under a huge Tory majority. So yes, PR.
I would suggest that PR wound realign a lot of parties and Labour, the Tories, and the Liberals would split. My guess is Reform would tend to get kept out by a Thatcherite/Cameroon/Cleggite coalition. The Cleggites would always be in power as they’d also help Labour keep out the Corbynites.
The Thatcherites would want to form a government with Reform first and might merge with them. The Cameroons and Cleggites would probably eventually merge. The social democrat wing of the LDs would stay distinct but deal with Labour and the Greens first
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
I listened to Any Questions and Any Answers today and Paul Johnson was making this very point. Any Answeres was all DDay initially but then several callers on the subject of finances. So it seems at least someone is taking notice, even if not mainstream.
Anyone who thinks there is scope for major tax cuts is delusional, or confident they won't be in government in a months time.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
But is it? The rich old people are used to getting their own way. It looks like that generation are going to lose an Election for the first time in their adult lives. There'll be much wailing and gnashing of false teeth. But an incoming government won't be beholden to their votes. It's why I want as big a Labour majority as possible. Starmer can afford then to be brave. I have no great expectations he will. But then that's on him and we can hold him to account.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
Not just them, their children too who are counting on inheriting those assets and in any case they can't cover indefinite higher and higher spending anyway
In that case they can go without the triple lock and can put up with waiting a decade to get their dodgy joints replaced. But they won't tolerate that either.
The grey vote is entitled, and cakeist, and very large. So we are stuck, circling the plughole.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
I listened to Any Questions and Any Answers today and Paul Johnson was making this very point. Any Answeres was all DDay initially but then several callers on the subject of finances. So it seems at least someone is taking notice, even if not mainstream.
Anyone who thinks there is scope for major tax cuts is delusional, or confident they won't be in government in a months time.
Exactly why the Tories can promise anything they like.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
If Sunak resigned as PM the King would take his advice on his successor which, given there's a Tory government already in place as the King's ministers, would be a Tory until such time as the lay of the land of the new HoC was clear post election.
Whereupon another resignation and appointment might take place.
Constitutionally it is not a “Tory” Government. That’s a convenient shorthand based on the fact that prime ministers are appointed based on their ability to command confidence in the House of Commons. The label we attached, for convenience, to that majority in the recent Parliament was the “Conservative” or “Tory” party. At the moment the PM is in place as a result of the outcome of the last election. There is no mechanism or precedent for a party that does not (by definition) command such confidence.
The Monarch’s role in appointing a prime minister is one of the remaining prerogative powers. The majority of those powers are exercised on his behalf by ministers, but the power to appoint prime ministers remains with the King. In the absence of any majority in the Commons, or any members of the Commons, appointing a member of one party over any other would be a nakedly political decision taken, as you accept, during an election campaign for the benefit of one party. The late Queen would never have done that and I sure as hell hope the current King wouldn’t either.
If Sunak resigned as PM all bets are off until the election. Charles may fancy doing it himself for a few weeks.
No, the Monarch would take the least contentious decision which would be to appoint a member of the existing administration and not create a change where no mandate existed.
If a new HoC was elected that was different he would no longer have its confidence, so would resign, just as Sunak would have done in a month's time anyway.
No way. The King appointing a PM nominated to help the Tories win votes DURING an election campaign? Least contentious? That’s as contentious as it comes, it could kill the both Tory Party and the Monarchy as institutions.
Rubbish, the King appoints the PM who commands the support of the majority of MPs which at the moment is still the Tories. Most likely he would be appointing PM Starmer in a few weeks anyway.
In the unlikely scenario Sunak did resign it would only be as Tory leader anyway, Parliament is not sitting and he would stay caretaker PM until election day so no need for the King to be involved
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Wrong question, since Tory sources have been repeatedly blindsided by Rishi who seems to be consulting no-one outside a very small team, even assuming he speaks to them.
We could speculate all night I suppose, but even from a quick preliminary scout about it does look as if some members of Sunak's brand of innermost circle that you're describing might also be known to Philip Blond.
On your question of why, if he is considering this, I think it would to be partly to protect his reputation and not receive all the blame.
I don't believe this notion of an extinction level event. Although it could well be on the cards if Sunak exits mid campaign.
Is there some extraordinary mechanism whereby Rishi could compel Chas to pull the 4th July election and reconvene Parliament under a new PM until 23rd January?
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
We can afford the spending but, once again, this can only be done by soaking assets and that will piss off rich old people, who are the one constituency whom nobody dare cross. And so, on we all go, circling the plughole.
In the short term we can raise that level of tax from assets but the growth and investment consequences of that would be seriously detrimental. Why would any foreigner want to invest in a country where they are excessively taxed? We currently need about £80bn a year of foreign investment to, well, not really balance the books but offset the deficit with asset sales to foreigners. If we don't get that Sterling collapses.
We need to stop kidding ourselves that we deserve a higher standard of living than we actually earn.
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Wrong question, since Tory sources have been repeatedly blindsided by Rishi who seems to be consulting no-one outside a very small team, even assuming he speaks to them.
We could speculate all night I suppose, but even from a quick preliminary scout about it does look as if some members of Sunak's brand of innermost circle that you're describing might also be known to Philip Blond.
On your question of why, if he is considering this, I think it would to be partly to protect his reputation and not receive all the blame.
I don't believe this notion of an extinction level event. It could well be on the cards if Sunak exits mid campaign.
Is there some extraordinary mechanism whereby Rishi could compel Chas to pull the 4th July election and reconvene Parliament under a new PM until 23rd January?
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
Wrong question, since Tory sources have been repeatedly blindsided by Rishi who seems to be consulting no-one outside a very small team, even assuming he speaks to them.
We could speculate all night I suppose, but even from a quick preliminary scout about it does look as if some members of Sunak's brand of innermost circle that you're describing might also be known to Philip Blond.
On your question of why, if he is considering this, I think it would to be partly to protect his reputation and not receive all the blame.
I don't believe this notion of an extinction level event. It could well be on the cards if Sunak exits mid campaign.
Is there some extraordinary mechanism whereby Rishi could compel Chas to pull the 4th July election and reconvene Parliament under a new PM until 23rd January?
But none of the MPs are MPs any more. Nio public mandate. That would mean KCIII appointed every single member of the HoC. Can't see that precedent working, can you?
Comments
Seriously, nothing has changed with Opinium's Labour level for months - everything is MOE.
England can't realistically qualify if they lose this.
And they have lost this. They have to hit all the remaining balls for 6.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13509231/conservatives-election-wipeout-labour-majority-mail-sunday-poll.html
He’s so lovely when he smiles.
And multi member constituencies under STV preserve the local MP link while protecting you from the bad luck of a shit one. Imagine if you were a resident of Clacton or South West Norfolk after the next election and needed to talk to your MP about something like the local hospital.
Not sure Rishi is entirely safe though. I expect he's lost the pensioner vote locally.
For Australia.
A quick bit of digging reveals that James Forsyth, for instance, has a senior position on Blond's Respublica thinktank's advisory board, and James Forsyth is something of a Sunak insider. So if he claims that there's "chat": of Sunak considering resigning, there might be something in it.
Exception being some form of top up system. Say 500 FPTP and a rebalancing 150 proportionally.
Even then I'd favour the best polling losers rather than a Party List.
https://x.com/europeelects/status/1799536712168673450?s=46
Solid rise for the populist right but hardly a revolution. Roughly in line with Refuk polling here.
Biggest losers the greens.
Savanta leads - 17, 18, 18, 21, 15, 18, 16, 18, 17, 17, 14, 20
This is in a context where Cons have posted their lowest percentage with one regular pollster and have matched their lowest Truss era poll in two others.
Edit - plus I'd offer Gibraltar a referendum on joining the UK, retaining their existing arrangement but getting 1 MP.
Slightly surprisingly, nobody seems to be necking the Buckfast either, seeing as it's Saturday.
ECR will have to have some rapporteurs I think, from memory.
Fact is, there’s no perfect system.
WIll turn in soon so night all
xx
Depends what we are discussing. Catterick is kids. There for a while only and registered at their parents if old enough to vote. Leeming will see lots go home at the weekend.
Leon: "NRR? If Scotland win tomorrow, England are out " Not quite. They've still got to face Australia
Is he moonlighting?
Cumbria would probably be a 5 member constituency. So would the City of Manchester.
You could also speak with an MP more likely to "get" your particular issue.
My previous MP was more loyal than @ HYUFD. No point lobbying him, or moaning about a government policy that adversely affected me.
The Conservative government, in whichever iteration it was at the time, was always correct, wise and benevolent.
So maybe Phiiip Blond really does know something.
#optimism
ETA but see WhisperingOracle's revelation of a possible link from Blond to James Forsyth to Rishi.
I believe it's time for a Labour government. So I will vote for them.
Unfortunately, my only option to express this desire is to cast a vote for Ian Lavery.
I can only think of a couple of Labour candidates I'd less like to express my confidence in.
I can think of plenty of others in the Tories (and other Parties) I'd be more proud to say was my
MP.
But I can't express my wish to vote Labour by voting for anyone else.
Come on Rishi, come out fighting. It's not like the horror-struck journeyman hacks pulled on the khaki and did their bit for King and country, so they are in no position to condemn either.
Should be worth a few hundred thousands emigrants.
Can be funded through the foreign aid budget.
On your question of why, if he is considering this, I think it would to be partly to protect his reputation and not receive all the blame.
Because there must have numerous senior Conservatives who knew that he was going to - Cameron and Shapps for starters.
£800 of tax rises whoever wins the election. And yes, that is a year, not over 4 years. I do recall writing the same on here on Thursday. This may come from a think tank but anyone looking at the deficit could surely see this.
So, on Sunak's measure this is £3,200 not £2000 and his party would have to do it too. We are spending truly absurd amounts of money compared with our income. It cannot go on.
Born in 1980 so almost in the 'millennial' generation.
I wonder if Sunak has ever read a Commando comic, built an Airfix model or watched a B&W war film on a Sunday afternoon.
Norwich South, Norwich North, Norfolk South
Mid Norfolk, SW Norfolk, NW Norfolk
Great Yarmouth, North Norfolk, Broadland and Fakenham
That works
Then it comes to a hard stop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0silSyYFPM
"Not Cumbernauld"
It's not as if they worked for those assets, especially with house price inflation so regionally uneven.
I mean he once graced (if that's the word) the EUROPEAN parliament!
I listened to Any Questions and Any Answers today and Paul Johnson was making this very point. Any Answeres was all DDay initially but then several callers on the subject of finances. So it seems at least someone is taking notice, even if not mainstream.
Anyone who thinks there is scope for major tax cuts is delusional, or confident they won't be in government in a months time.
The rich old people are used to getting their own way.
It looks like that generation are going to lose an Election for the first time in their adult lives.
There'll be much wailing and gnashing of false teeth.
But an incoming government won't be beholden to their votes.
It's why I want as big a Labour majority as possible. Starmer can afford then to be brave.
I have no great expectations he will.
But then that's on him and we can hold him to account.
The grey vote is entitled, and cakeist, and very large. So we are stuck, circling the plughole.
In the unlikely scenario Sunak did resign it would only be as Tory leader anyway, Parliament is not sitting and he would stay caretaker PM until election day so no need for the King to be involved
Is there some extraordinary mechanism whereby Rishi could compel Chas to pull the 4th July election and reconvene Parliament under a new PM until 23rd January?
We need to stop kidding ourselves that we deserve a higher standard of living than we actually earn.