Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
Haviung worked there for 15 years I find some of the pointless authoritarianism rather trying. The massive restrictions on alcohol sales and the petty social planning restrictions which make our planning system look like a model of enlightenment and tolerence are symptomatic of the 'Janteloven' attitude.
It would be fair to say that these are, on balance, outweighed by the positives of the country but it is the fact that so many unecessary restrictions are put on people that is wearing.
Also, for countries that are the 'happiest on earth' they also have worryingly high suicide rates. Much higher than the UK for example.
Usually northern countries - I suspect the long dark winters are a factor.
Why are we discussing Sunak standing down with a little over 3 weeks left?
This too is utter madness. It is NOT going to happen!
I have just responded to Farooq saying "not going to happen" by talking up a scenario where it already is. In this scenario, I seek clarification as to what Sunak is resigning from.
Sunak is not an MP - cannot resign from that. Sunak is Prime Minister - appointed by the King - and party leader - appointed by Mrs Brady.
So, which of the remaining two is he resigning from? PM? Can't - we have to have a government, and I think the King and the establishment will simply refuse to accept his resignation in this circumstance.
Which leaves resigning as party leader. That would not affect him being PM. And allows the party to select someone else and that someone else could be invited to serve as PM. Though in reality would Sunak - who does not need to command a majority - not just stay as caretaker PM?
So he *could* resign the leadership. In shame. But as the party would surely largely disappear at the election what would it matter who was selected?
Which is why it won't happen.
Who would he send his resignation to? No 1922 Committee at the moment, so no Chairman of it.
Just put his hoody on and walk out of Number 10...
Why are we discussing Sunak standing down with a little over 3 weeks left?
This too is utter madness. It is NOT going to happen!
I have just responded to Farooq saying "not going to happen" by talking up a scenario where it already is. In this scenario, I seek clarification as to what Sunak is resigning from.
Sunak is not an MP - cannot resign from that. Sunak is Prime Minister - appointed by the King - and party leader - appointed by Mrs Brady.
So, which of the remaining two is he resigning from? PM? Can't - we have to have a government, and I think the King and the establishment will simply refuse to accept his resignation in this circumstance.
Which leaves resigning as party leader. That would not affect him being PM. And allows the party to select someone else and that someone else could be invited to serve as PM. Though in reality would Sunak - who does not need to command a majority - not just stay as caretaker PM?
So he *could* resign the leadership. In shame. But as the party would surely largely disappear at the election what would it matter who was selected?
Which is why it won't happen.
Who would he send his resignation to? No 1922 Committee at the moment, so no Chairman of it.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
The UK oil and gas industry is falling off a cliff at the moment. I am seeing contracts dry up all over the place as companies switch their investment plans to other parts of the world. Norway drilled 33 E&A wells last year whilst the UK drilled 12. Licence rounds are failing and no one has any interest in investing in the UK O&G industry at the moment because of the windfall tax and the prospect of Labour bans on new licences.
So a lot of those service companies that we want in the UK for the energy transitin are now moving to other parts of the world where they can use their O&G activities to continue to support and expand their renewables technology.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
Well, constitutionally there's nothing stopping a PM being from the Lords.
Understood. But what constitutional principle requires the King to appoint Cameron as opposed to, say, Angela Smith, Baroness Smith of Basildon, who is the leader of the Labour Party in the Lords? There’s nothing binding him to the choice of Cameron as no one has a Commons majority.
The King would refuse the resignation initially as nobody can demonstrate the confidence of the House of his subjects representatives whilst it does not sit, remind Sunak of his responsibility to the nation. If Sunak insisted he'd probably only be able to appoint from within the government and on a caretaker basis. Or perhaps would exercise the reserved powers personally with the help of the Privy Council pending the election.
In absolute extremis, rather than your last option I reckon you’d pick a non-political but qualified Lord rather than him do it. Gus O’Donnell say. Everyone would believe he’d be a caretaker only, so he’d command the notional parliament until Starmer kissed hands, and it keeps the King clean.
For all the reasons everyone’s said, I just don’t see him resigning immediately (until about 8am on July 5th, anyway).
However, if he *did*, or became seriously incapacitated, my money would be on the King asking the Cabinet to nominate one of its number.
1. In the absence of the Commons, the caretaker govt is the best he has for constitutionally/democratically-legitimate advice. 2. The cabinet are all Privy Counsellors, who have an added layer of supra-party legit. (Though I guess he might check in with Starmer and Davey for added protection) 3. Not an expert, but seems to me there’s a strong presumption when Royals actually have to make a decision, to favour the status quo ante.
You’re right about the status quo. I think it’s a case of that option being “no change” and mine being “technocrat be seen to avoid empowering a politician during an election”.
The harm is be trying to avoid is the act of elevating Dowden being seen to change the result as people flocked to him partly as “the King’s man” (stop sniggering at the back).
As we’ve all said - this is a thought experiment only.
Alternatively the King could make the Speaker acting PM pending the election.
It's crazy talk though, even the Tories are not stupid enough to have a leadership contest dominate the rest of the campaign.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
Haviung worked there for 15 years I find some of the pointless authoritarianism rather trying. The massive restrictions on alcohol sales and the petty social planning restrictions which make our planning system look like a model of enlightenment and tolerence are symptomatic of the 'Janteloven' attitude.
It would be fair to say that these are, on balance, outweighed by the positives of the country but it is the fact that so many unecessary restrictions are put on people that is wearing.
Also, for countries that are the 'happiest on earth' they also have worryingly high suicide rates. Much higher than the UK for example.
Usually northern countries - I suspect the long dark winters are a factor.
I think too that suicide rates vary a lot between countries on the basis of coroners being willing to record suicide as cause of death rather than as "accident".
I started reading the sentence assuming it would end with “years”, and was already to say “blimey that was quick”. And then it was “days”… Madness.
The article does not say sentenced (at least now), it says remanded in custody:
COPENHAGEN, June 8 (Reuters) - A 39-year old Polish man was remanded in custody for 12 days on Saturday over an assault the previous day on Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, which authorities said caused her to suffer a minor neck injury.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
Well, constitutionally there's nothing stopping a PM being from the Lords.
Understood. But what constitutional principle requires the King to appoint Cameron as opposed to, say, Angela Smith, Baroness Smith of Basildon, who is the leader of the Labour Party in the Lords? There’s nothing binding him to the choice of Cameron as no one has a Commons majority.
The King would refuse the resignation initially as nobody can demonstrate the confidence of the House of his subjects representatives whilst it does not sit, remind Sunak of his responsibility to the nation. If Sunak insisted he'd probably only be able to appoint from within the government and on a caretaker basis. Or perhaps would exercise the reserved powers personally with the help of the Privy Council pending the election.
In absolute extremis, rather than your last option I reckon you’d pick a non-political but qualified Lord rather than him do it. Gus O’Donnell say. Everyone would believe he’d be a caretaker only, so he’d command the notional parliament until Starmer kissed hands, and it keeps the King clean.
For all the reasons everyone’s said, I just don’t see him resigning immediately (until about 8am on July 5th, anyway).
However, if he *did*, or became seriously incapacitated, my money would be on the King asking the Cabinet to nominate one of its number.
1. In the absence of the Commons, the caretaker govt is the best he has for constitutionally/democratically-legitimate advice. 2. The cabinet are all Privy Counsellors, who have an added layer of supra-party legit. (Though I guess he might check in with Starmer and Davey for added protection) 3. Not an expert, but seems to me there’s a strong presumption when Royals actually have to make a decision, to favour the status quo ante.
You’re right about the status quo. I think it’s a case of that option being “no change” and mine being “technocrat be seen to avoid empowering a politician during an election”.
The harm is be trying to avoid is the act of elevating Dowden being seen to change the result as people flocked to him partly as “the King’s man” (stop sniggering at the back).
As we’ve all said - this is a thought experiment only.
Alternatively the King could make the Speaker acting PM pending the election.
It's crazy talk though, even the Tories are not stupid enough to have a leadership contest dominate the rest of the campaign.
Why are we discussing Sunak standing down with a little over 3 weeks left?
This too is utter madness. It is NOT going to happen!
I have just responded to Farooq saying "not going to happen" by talking up a scenario where it already is. In this scenario, I seek clarification as to what Sunak is resigning from.
Sunak is not an MP - cannot resign from that. Sunak is Prime Minister - appointed by the King - and party leader - appointed by Mrs Brady.
So, which of the remaining two is he resigning from? PM? Can't - we have to have a government, and I think the King and the establishment will simply refuse to accept his resignation in this circumstance.
Which leaves resigning as party leader. That would not affect him being PM. And allows the party to select someone else and that someone else could be invited to serve as PM. Though in reality would Sunak - who does not need to command a majority - not just stay as caretaker PM?
So he *could* resign the leadership. In shame. But as the party would surely largely disappear at the election what would it matter who was selected?
Which is why it won't happen.
Who would he send his resignation to? No 1922 Committee at the moment, so no Chairman of it.
Just put his hoody on and walk out of Number 10...
Send round an 18 year old assessor with a checkbox form to find out if he is sick or workshy, and enrol him down the jobcentre.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
Haviung worked there for 15 years I find some of the pointless authoritarianism rather trying. The massive restrictions on alcohol sales and the petty social planning restrictions which make our planning system look like a model of enlightenment and tolerence are symptomatic of the 'Janteloven' attitude.
It would be fair to say that these are, on balance, outweighed by the positives of the country but it is the fact that so many unecessary restrictions are put on people that is wearing.
Also, for countries that are the 'happiest on earth' they also have worryingly high suicide rates. Much higher than the UK for example.
Good points.
I’ve only been there 3 times, albeit for reasonably long visits, and don’t know it at all thoroughly like you clearly do. The culture is quite impenetrable to a casual visitor. The strong nationalism, independence, and ‘Janteloven' is so marked but with it the counter-culture, evidenced in movements like black metal. I chatted to one young chap, a shop assistant, on the Lofoten islands who said to me, ‘I hate this fucking place and can’t wait to get out. There is nothing whatsoever for a young person to do and it is so boring.'
As I say, I feel I’ve just dipped my toe though.
p.s. the last fortnight that I was there I saw two pieces of litter the entire trip.
We have a seagulls nest next door but one, (we had them 3 years ago but with protecting netting they left) and a wee chick fell out of the nest onto our neighbours drive
The poor thing is so vulnerable but as advised by the RSPB it is one of those things and the parents will protect and feed the chick, though we do have foxes at night as evidenced on our security cameras so as the RSPB said ultimately it is natural selection
This has been going on since late morning and the parents are vicious to anyone approaching the wee creature and it is genuinely amazing to watch the parents as they protect and feed their little one
Unfortunately it is constant noise from the parents which I expect to continue as long as the chick survives
Just telling this story as nature continues, no matter the chaos in politics
Mmm. A tale which began three years ago and ends with a wounded animal dying amidst interminable squawking and chaos. There's a political metaphor in there somewhere but I can't quite put my finger on it.
The chick is not dying - indeed it looks well and the parents are virtually alongside it
The main danger to the chick is the fox but I can see your metaphor to be fair
Why are we discussing Sunak standing down with a little over 3 weeks left?
This too is utter madness. It is NOT going to happen!
I have just responded to Farooq saying "not going to happen" by talking up a scenario where it already is. In this scenario, I seek clarification as to what Sunak is resigning from.
Sunak is not an MP - cannot resign from that. Sunak is Prime Minister - appointed by the King - and party leader - appointed by Mrs Brady.
So, which of the remaining two is he resigning from? PM? Can't - we have to have a government, and I think the King and the establishment will simply refuse to accept his resignation in this circumstance.
Which leaves resigning as party leader. That would not affect him being PM. And allows the party to select someone else and that someone else could be invited to serve as PM. Though in reality would Sunak - who does not need to command a majority - not just stay as caretaker PM?
So he *could* resign the leadership. In shame. But as the party would surely largely disappear at the election what would it matter who was selected?
Which is why it won't happen.
Who would he send his resignation to? No 1922 Committee at the moment, so no Chairman of it.
Is it clear that a resignation must be sent to the Chairman? It is the duty of the 1922 Committee (not merely the Chairman of it) to present to the party a choice of candidates for election, which presents issues in this scenario for which the Committee does not presently exist, but it does not follow the resignation must be sent to the Chairman.
The rules for election of a Leader are brief, but do say 'A Leader resigning from the Leadership of the Party is not eligible' etc etc for renomination, but not the process for resignation.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
Well, constitutionally there's nothing stopping a PM being from the Lords.
Understood. But what constitutional principle requires the King to appoint Cameron as opposed to, say, Angela Smith, Baroness Smith of Basildon, who is the leader of the Labour Party in the Lords? There’s nothing binding him to the choice of Cameron as no one has a Commons majority.
Most likely to command the confidence of the Commons. Since there are no MPs there is an argument to say that he could appoint Starmer. The next time the Commons meets, that's the likely outcome. I don't expect that would be the choice made, but it's possible. It would be a terrible bind for the king.
I don't think this is going to happen, but theoretically Sunak could announce that he's quitting as party leader, but will stay as caretaker PM until the election. That satisfies the constitution, the only difficulty being how internally to the conservative party they can make clear to the king now, who it is that would have the confidence of their parliamentary party after the election (in the unlikely event that they could obtain a plurality under such circumstances). Ordinarily the 1922 committee could meet to make a rule covering the case - but does it even exist during an election, since there are no MPs?
Cabinet select someone who HMK appoints until the Tories leadership election concludes then PM resigns in favour of new leader
In the unlikely event of the Tories winning, whowever is selected would remain as PM until the Tory leadership election, which they'd presumably be well-placed to win.
Yes, so the constitutional principle of making the most conservative choice in an emergency would therefore demand selection of someone who wouldn't stand in the subsequent leadership election.
Unfortunately for HMK, that still leaves Cameron, Dowden, or Hunt as potential choices.
For me, Dowden would be the best pick - Deputy PM (albeit purely a political title), likely to retain his seat in the election, very unlikely to stand in any leadership contest.
I don't like him but surely it would be Cameron.
His being a Lord has no impact as Parliament is not sitting. He is not standing for election He has been PM before - for better or worse - and so knows the job and is known to world leaders. He can be trusted not to abuse the appointment in such a way as to affect the election.
Why are we discussing Sunak standing down with a little over 3 weeks left?
This too is utter madness. It is NOT going to happen!
I have just responded to Farooq saying "not going to happen" by talking up a scenario where it already is. In this scenario, I seek clarification as to what Sunak is resigning from.
Sunak is not an MP - cannot resign from that. Sunak is Prime Minister - appointed by the King - and party leader - appointed by Mrs Brady.
So, which of the remaining two is he resigning from? PM? Can't - we have to have a government, and I think the King and the establishment will simply refuse to accept his resignation in this circumstance.
Which leaves resigning as party leader. That would not affect him being PM. And allows the party to select someone else and that someone else could be invited to serve as PM. Though in reality would Sunak - who does not need to command a majority - not just stay as caretaker PM?
So he *could* resign the leadership. In shame. But as the party would surely largely disappear at the election what would it matter who was selected?
Which is why it won't happen.
Who would he send his resignation to? No 1922 Committee at the moment, so no Chairman of it.
So Farage is a damp squib, that’s what the polls seem to say. Someone needs to kick Sunak out of his depression.
What will happen is Tory’s pull away from Reform in later stages like Labour pulled away from Alliance in 83. But too soon to call Farage impact a squib, as his simple black and white answers for people who like that sort of thing can still pile on polling gain in next 2 weeks.
But where will the Tory share be when the late Swingback begins. There’s no way they would get 26% if election was the coming Thursday.
So Farage is a damp squib, that’s what the polls seem to say. Someone needs to kick Sunak out of his depression.
I think we need to wait a little longer for the D day effect
It’s interesting that Daily Mail of all things has a leading story predicting a Labour majority in the 400s. They normally hide this stuff.
That Labour is going to get a crushing majority cannot be hidden! The question now is how big? Personally I don't care as long as the useless Tories are destroyed.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
The UK oil and gas industry is falling off a cliff at the moment. I am seeing contracts dry up all over the place as companies switch their investment plans to other parts of the world. Norway drilled 33 E&A wells last year whilst the UK drilled 12. Licence rounds are failing and no one has any interest in investing in the UK O&G industry at the moment because of the windfall tax and the prospect of Labour bans on new licences.
So a lot of those service companies that we want in the UK for the energy transitin are now moving to other parts of the world where they can use their O&G activities to continue to support and expand their renewables technology.
Sadly I think even people in the upper echelons of both parties (and the Lib Dems) still don’t understand the difference between global profits and North Sea ringfence profits.
That said there are still some profitable NS operators milking old fields, most of which are unknown to British voters.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
So Farage is a damp squib, that’s what the polls seem to say. Someone needs to kick Sunak out of his depression.
I think we need to wait a little longer for the D day effect
It’s interesting that Daily Mail of all things has a leading story predicting a Labour majority in the 400s. They normally hide this stuff.
That Labour is going to get a crushing majority cannot be hidden! The question now is how big? Personally I don't care as long as the useless Tories are destroyed.
If it’s in the Mail that means it’s briefed by the Tories. They are playing the Australia tactic. And it may work.
Why are we discussing Sunak standing down with a little over 3 weeks left?
This too is utter madness. It is NOT going to happen!
I have just responded to Farooq saying "not going to happen" by talking up a scenario where it already is. In this scenario, I seek clarification as to what Sunak is resigning from.
Sunak is not an MP - cannot resign from that. Sunak is Prime Minister - appointed by the King - and party leader - appointed by Mrs Brady.
So, which of the remaining two is he resigning from? PM? Can't - we have to have a government, and I think the King and the establishment will simply refuse to accept his resignation in this circumstance.
Which leaves resigning as party leader. That would not affect him being PM. And allows the party to select someone else and that someone else could be invited to serve as PM. Though in reality would Sunak - who does not need to command a majority - not just stay as caretaker PM?
So he *could* resign the leadership. In shame. But as the party would surely largely disappear at the election what would it matter who was selected?
Which is why it won't happen.
Who would he send his resignation to? No 1922 Committee at the moment, so no Chairman of it.
The Chairperson of the Conservative Party.
I told you Wigan would win 🏆
Do I owe you a virtual pie or a herring? Here’s both 🥧 🎣
So Farage is a damp squib, that’s what the polls seem to say. Someone needs to kick Sunak out of his depression.
What will happen is Tory’s pull away from Reform in later stages like Labour pulled away from Alliance in 83. But too soon to call Farage impact a squib, as his simple black and white answers for people who like that sort of thing can still pile on polling gain in next 2 weeks.
But where will the Tory share be when the late Swingback begins. There’s no way they would get 26% if election was the coming Thursday.
“Evacuate in our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.”
Why are we discussing Sunak standing down with a little over 3 weeks left?
This too is utter madness. It is NOT going to happen!
I have just responded to Farooq saying "not going to happen" by talking up a scenario where it already is. In this scenario, I seek clarification as to what Sunak is resigning from.
Sunak is not an MP - cannot resign from that. Sunak is Prime Minister - appointed by the King - and party leader - appointed by Mrs Brady.
So, which of the remaining two is he resigning from? PM? Can't - we have to have a government, and I think the King and the establishment will simply refuse to accept his resignation in this circumstance.
Which leaves resigning as party leader. That would not affect him being PM. And allows the party to select someone else and that someone else could be invited to serve as PM. Though in reality would Sunak - who does not need to command a majority - not just stay as caretaker PM?
So he *could* resign the leadership. In shame. But as the party would surely largely disappear at the election what would it matter who was selected?
Which is why it won't happen.
Who would he send his resignation to? No 1922 Committee at the moment, so no Chairman of it.
Why are we discussing Sunak standing down with a little over 3 weeks left?
This too is utter madness. It is NOT going to happen!
I have just responded to Farooq saying "not going to happen" by talking up a scenario where it already is. In this scenario, I seek clarification as to what Sunak is resigning from.
Sunak is not an MP - cannot resign from that. Sunak is Prime Minister - appointed by the King - and party leader - appointed by Mrs Brady.
So, which of the remaining two is he resigning from? PM? Can't - we have to have a government, and I think the King and the establishment will simply refuse to accept his resignation in this circumstance.
Which leaves resigning as party leader. That would not affect him being PM. And allows the party to select someone else and that someone else could be invited to serve as PM. Though in reality would Sunak - who does not need to command a majority - not just stay as caretaker PM?
So he *could* resign the leadership. In shame. But as the party would surely largely disappear at the election what would it matter who was selected?
Which is why it won't happen.
Who would he send his resignation to? No 1922 Committee at the moment, so no Chairman of it.
The Chairperson of the Conservative Party.
I told you Wigan would win 🏆
Do I owe you a virtual pie or a herring? Here’s both 🥧 🎣
A virtual herring is best, I am supposed to be on a diet, but all the popcorn is ruining it.
Yesterday's Telegraph "Ukraine: the Latest" podcast had what must be a 20 minute segment about Cricket in Ukraine, introduced by Indian Expats in recent years.
It passed me by as wallpaper and then sunk in ... wtf?
Today, we bring you the latest news from Ukraine and Europe, discuss the new front in Russia’s war on the West and we talk to author and translator Jonathan Campion about his book ‘Getting Out’ on the inspiring and moving story of Ukrainian cricket.
Two weeks ago Opinium was an outlier for the Cons, last week it was an outlier for Lab. That 6-point movement was very startling and especially so with Opinium This week looks like a reversion to the middle with Lab 18 ahead, which suggests that throughout there has been a slow drift to Lab. Which given events seems about right.
Lab lead in Opinium polls = 15, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 18, 14, 20, 18
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
The one thing that could make a Rishi resignation possible, as discussed at the beginning of this conversation, is if he feels it would shift some of the blame for a scale of defeat, particularly including the last few days that have been so difficult for him.
Even it leads to a similar result, sole responsibility on him will always be much more difficult to prove.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
It's zero net immigration, not zero immigration. Arguably it is far too liberal.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
The Deltapoll details showing are Lab 46 (-2) Con 21 (-4) Ref 12(+3) 6 to 8 Jun so covering more of the outrage period Not a highly dramatic shift but a pretty significant one, Tories were 23, 23, 25 in the previous Drltapoll GE polls. No real Faragasm even with the outrage. I'd suggest a fair bit of Tory to DK covers a lump of the Change
Would be enough for crossover with Redfield Monday if repeated
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
I don't know if "left leaning" applies to me (centrist globalist liberal according to the tribes thing) but yes. If Con + Ref got over 50% of the vote and could stomach working together, then that's a deal. Yeah, it'd be a gross government from my point of view, but it would be a reflection of the country's wishes.
If Tory + Reform was over 50% then probably under FPTP we’d be labouring under a huge Tory majority. So yes, PR.
@Richard_Tyndall also fascinates me that Norway still hunt whales and cull baby seals in a two-fingered response to the rest of the world. Indeed I was in a restaurant where whale meat was served. If you bring it back into the UK you can be in deep trouble: £5000 fine and custodial sentence.
And Norwegian flags everywhere
And yet, and yet, I can’t help but find myself admiring them for it all
The one thing that could make a Rishi resignation possible, as discussed at the beginning of this conversation, is if he feels it would shift some of the blame for a scale of defeat, particularly including the last few days that have been so difficult for him.
Even it leads to a similar result, sole responsibility on him will always be much more difficult to prove.
Rubbish - quitting after he'd set the boulder rolling down the hill would make it 100% his mess and anyone who tried to salvage something from his mess would be clearly blameless.
@Richard_Tyndall also fascinates me that Norway still hunt whales and cull baby seals in a two-fingered response to the rest of the world. Indeed I was in a restaurant where whale meat was served. If you bring it back into the UK you can be in deep trouble: £5000 fine and custodial sentence.
And Norwegian flags everywhere
And yet, and yet, I can’t help but find myself admiring them for it all
I did use to like working there. Sadly long before Brexit was even a thought they started to tighten up on non Norwegian consultants working there and made it exremely difficult to keep operating there.
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
I don't know if "left leaning" applies to me (centrist globalist liberal according to the tribes thing) but yes. If Con + Ref got over 50% of the vote and could stomach working together, then that's a deal. Yeah, it'd be a gross government from my point of view, but it would be a reflection of the country's wishes.
If Tory + Reform was over 50% then probably under FPTP we’d be labouring under a huge Tory majority. So yes, PR.
I would suggest that PR wound realign a lot of parties and Labour, the Tories, and the Liberals would split. My guess is Reform would tend to get kept out by a Thatcherite/Cameroon/Cleggite coalition. The Cleggites would always be in power as they’d also help Labour keep out the Corbynites.
So Farage is a damp squib, that’s what the polls seem to say. Someone needs to kick Sunak out of his depression.
I think we need to wait a little longer for the D day effect
It’s interesting that Daily Mail of all things has a leading story predicting a Labour majority in the 400s. They normally hide this stuff.
That Labour is going to get a crushing majority cannot be hidden! The question now is how big? Personally I don't care as long as the useless Tories are destroyed.
If it’s in the Mail that means it’s briefed by the Tories. They are playing the Australia tactic. And it may work.
Australia's tactics working far too well right now.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
Haviung worked there for 15 years I find some of the pointless authoritarianism rather trying. The massive restrictions on alcohol sales and the petty social planning restrictions which make our planning system look like a model of enlightenment and tolerence are symptomatic of the 'Janteloven' attitude.
It would be fair to say that these are, on balance, outweighed by the positives of the country but it is the fact that so many unecessary restrictions are put on people that is wearing.
Also, for countries that are the 'happiest on earth' they also have worryingly high suicide rates. Much higher than the UK for example.
I can only really speak about Finland but my main observation is the employment model is a big issue. For various reasons people end up holding on to the same job forever, and a lot of them are very unhappy and unfulfilled. I know people who are stuck in this long term unemployment situation that they can't escape, I think they would get on a lot better in the UK where it is easy to find work due to the flexible labour rules. But the social welfare system provides for all your essential needs in Finland, so you if you become sick or lose your job you then just get stuck in this bureaucracy which you then become dependent on, it then starts to kill your self esteem and confidence. If you add this to the months and months of dark and freezing cold, you can see the issue. It is a great system but it has these intractable and unsolvable problems.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
The UK oil and gas industry is falling off a cliff at the moment. I am seeing contracts dry up all over the place as companies switch their investment plans to other parts of the world. Norway drilled 33 E&A wells last year whilst the UK drilled 12. Licence rounds are failing and no one has any interest in investing in the UK O&G industry at the moment because of the windfall tax and the prospect of Labour bans on new licences.
So a lot of those service companies that we want in the UK for the energy transitin are now moving to other parts of the world where they can use their O&G activities to continue to support and expand their renewables technology.
Sadly I think even people in the upper echelons of both parties (and the Lib Dems) still don’t understand the difference between global profits and North Sea ringfence profits.
That said there are still some profitable NS operators milking old fields, most of which are unknown to British voters.
But even they are shifting away. Harbour are the largest UK independent but they have slashed investment in the UK North Sea to refocus on other parts of the world which are more profitable - including Norway.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
It's zero net immigration, not zero immigration. Arguably it is far too liberal.
Apologies, I thought I'd typed "net" in my post, but that's exactly what I mean. It would be a disaster.
You don't think it's possible to achieve the level of emigration necessary to balance the figures?
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
You mean Farage's 500k gross immigration policy?
Though many would be via the turnover of students, so no big deal.
The simplistic way for Reform to get immigration down to those numbers would be to close the universities to foreign applicants and do a Truss on the economy, thereby accelerating the number departing for Antipodes or wherever.
The one thing that could make a Rishi resignation possible, as discussed at the beginning of this conversation, is if he feels it would shift some of the blame for a scale of defeat, particularly including the last few days that have been so difficult for him.
Even it leads to a similar result, sole responsibility on him will always be much more difficult to prove.
Rubbish - quitting after he'd set the boulder rolling down the hill would make it 100% his mess and anyone who tried to salvage something from his mess would be clearly blameless.
It would be cowardice almost without equal.
That's one way of looking at it, but once he'd be gone no-one would ever be able to prove how much he personally moved the boulder.
From his, and possibly another point of view, he might feel he is now in the position of being falsely accused of being the only hand behind the boulder, which he would have a a fairly good case that he isn't. Also, if it becomes increasingly clear that other people want him to go, it would be very hard to label that exclusively as cowardice,
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
You mean Farage's 500k gross immigration policy?
Though many would be via the turnover of students, so no big deal.
The simplistic way for Reform to get immigration down to those numbers would be to close the universities to foreign applicants and do a Truss on the economy, thereby accelerating the number departing for Antipodes or wherever.
I'm old enough to remember when the PB brains trust was unanimous that May's inclusion of students and their dependents in net immigration figures was wrong.
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
PR. All votes to count equally. People get what they vote for. In this election we are going to see millions vote for Reform and get minimal representation. I disagree with Farage politically but we have to respect how people vote. However they vote.
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
The UK oil and gas industry is falling off a cliff at the moment. I am seeing contracts dry up all over the place as companies switch their investment plans to other parts of the world. Norway drilled 33 E&A wells last year whilst the UK drilled 12. Licence rounds are failing and no one has any interest in investing in the UK O&G industry at the moment because of the windfall tax and the prospect of Labour bans on new licences.
So a lot of those service companies that we want in the UK for the energy transitin are now moving to other parts of the world where they can use their O&G activities to continue to support and expand their renewables technology.
Sadly I think even people in the upper echelons of both parties (and the Lib Dems) still don’t understand the difference between global profits and North Sea ringfence profits.
That said there are still some profitable NS operators milking old fields, most of which are unknown to British voters.
But even they are shifting away. Harbour are the largest UK independent but they have slashed investment in the UK North Sea to refocus on other parts of the world which are more profitable - including Norway.
I hope Labour are sensible on this. They (and government) have seemed in private to engage seriously with a tax mechanism that is more predictable, preserves investment allowances and allows for automatic ratchets when crude prices rise and fall. It will probably take the quieter moments outside an election to get there.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
You mean Farage's 500k gross immigration policy?
Though many would be via the turnover of students, so no big deal.
The simplistic way for Reform to get immigration down to those numbers would be to close the universities to foreign applicants and do a Truss on the economy, thereby accelerating the number departing for Antipodes or wherever.
I'm old enough to remember when the PB brains trust was unanimous that May's inclusion of students and their dependents in net immigration figures was wrong.
Bet the tories wish they hadn't done it now.
In theory it should net out, but in practice 20% of students never go home.
Though as we don't check papers on departures hard to know.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
It's zero net immigration, not zero immigration. Arguably it is far too liberal.
net zero immigration. Quite a good line.
The problem is that surely the correct policy should really be to encourage young people to move and settle in the UK and start families here; either that or you have to massively incentivise people to have children, which they aren't doing in sufficient numbers at present.
OT. Interesting Any Questions today. Biggest cheer of the day for the SNP MP who wanted to cancel Brexit and rejoin. Every time the word was mentioned there was a huge cheer. (From a Tory constituency as well). Somebody or other is throwing away a potential USP that comes with great big flashing lights
FFS. You can’t “cancel” Brexit anymore than I can cancel my 50th birthday. I’d like to do both but sadly both have happened. Britain has Exited the EU. That’s Brexit. People (myself included) might want to rejoin but people (myself included) don’t want to rip the country apart again through another Referendum. If you lived in this country you’d realise how strong this feeling is. Most 2016 Remainers don’t want to gone through the pain of reopening the wounds, however much we regret the 2016 outcome. Another referendum would just recreate the recent chaos.
Just take French citizenship Roger. It’s because of people like you we lost. The best we can hope for for a generation is closer relations and possibly Single Market. We won’t rejoin until the pain of the last Referendum is long gone and, likely, both you and I are too.
Once in power I would like to see Starmer start planning and low level negotiating for us to join EFTA. He doesn't have to 'betray' anybody by actually making formal approaches or even think about making any real moves in his first term. But he could do the hard work, and lay the ground ready to present the electorate with a serious, well planned option at the next election.
It is what we should have done after the referendum but Cameron ran away and his successors were all trying to prove how 'pure' they were.
Here's an interesting question, for those left leaning who support PR.
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
Yes. It would be no worse than the past 9 years of FPTP Toryism dictated the fear of the far-Right.
BUT When would it have happened? when did the UK right wing parties last get over 50% of the vote?
2015 was approximately a tie, but who knows what a shift to PR would do to voting patterns, once the wasted vote problem was removed? The party system would very likely reconfigure and fragment, with unpredictable consequences.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
It's zero net immigration, not zero immigration. Arguably it is far too liberal.
Apologies, I thought I'd typed "net" in my post, but that's exactly what I mean. It would be a disaster.
You don't think it's possible to achieve the level of emigration necessary to balance the figures?
Interestingly. The last year to have net emigration was 1993. The year I left the country for seven years. One year after a shock Tory win. So it isn't impossible to achieve it next year, as all the bright ambitious young people bugger off in disgust. You know it makes sense.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
You mean Farage's 500k gross immigration policy?
Though many would be via the turnover of students, so no big deal.
The simplistic way for Reform to get immigration down to those numbers would be to close the universities to foreign applicants and do a Truss on the economy, thereby accelerating the number departing for Antipodes or wherever.
I'm old enough to remember when the PB brains trust was unanimous that May's inclusion of students and their dependents in net immigration figures was wrong.
Bet the tories wish they hadn't done it now.
In theory it should net out, but in practice 20% of students never go home.
Though as we don't check papers on departures hard to know.
Students are allowed to stay two years after too. It was two years, then I think Cameron reduced it to 4 months, then Boris put it back to 2 years.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
The UK oil and gas industry is falling off a cliff at the moment. I am seeing contracts dry up all over the place as companies switch their investment plans to other parts of the world. Norway drilled 33 E&A wells last year whilst the UK drilled 12. Licence rounds are failing and no one has any interest in investing in the UK O&G industry at the moment because of the windfall tax and the prospect of Labour bans on new licences.
So a lot of those service companies that we want in the UK for the energy transitin are now moving to other parts of the world where they can use their O&G activities to continue to support and expand their renewables technology.
Sadly I think even people in the upper echelons of both parties (and the Lib Dems) still don’t understand the difference between global profits and North Sea ringfence profits.
That said there are still some profitable NS operators milking old fields, most of which are unknown to British voters.
But even they are shifting away. Harbour are the largest UK independent but they have slashed investment in the UK North Sea to refocus on other parts of the world which are more profitable - including Norway.
I hope Labour are sensible on this. They (and government) have seemed in private to engage seriously with a tax mechanism that is more predictable, preserves investment allowances and allows for automatic ratchets when crude prices rise and fall. It will probably take the quieter moments outside an election to get there.
I hope so. I am sat offshore right now about 100 miles east of Aberdeen and I have to say, even in the worst of weather, I much prefer working in the North Sea to most of the other places around the world - including most of Europe - that I usually end up in. With the exception of Norway, no other country learnt the lessons of Piper Alpha as well as the UK.
OT. Interesting Any Questions today. Biggest cheer of the day for the SNP MP who wanted to cancel Brexit and rejoin. Every time the word was mentioned there was a huge cheer. (From a Tory constituency as well). Somebody or other is throwing away a potential USP that comes with great big flashing lights
FFS. You can’t “cancel” Brexit anymore than I can cancel my 50th birthday. I’d like to do both but sadly both have happened. Britain has Exited the EU. That’s Brexit. People (myself included) might want to rejoin but people (myself included) don’t want to rip the country apart again through another Referendum. If you lived in this country you’d realise how strong this feeling is. Most 2016 Remainers don’t want to gone through the pain of reopening the wounds, however much we regret the 2016 outcome. Another referendum would just recreate the recent chaos.
Just take French citizenship Roger. It’s because of people like you we lost. The best we can hope for for a generation is closer relations and possibly Single Market. We won’t rejoin until the pain of the last Referendum is long gone and, likely, both you and I are too.
Once in power I would like to see Starmer start planning and low level negotiating for us to join EFTA. He doesn't have to 'betray' anybody by actually making formal approaches or even think about making any real moves in his first term. But he could do the hard work, and lay the ground ready to present the electorate with a serious, well planned option at the next election.
It is what we should have done after the referendum but Cameron ran away and his successors were all trying to prove how 'pure' they were.
EFTA is a non-starter. The remaining members value a constructive relationship with the EU, and wouldn't welcome an unstable UK - which, in any case, would dwarf all of them and completely dominate the bloc.
OT. Interesting Any Questions today. Biggest cheer of the day for the SNP MP who wanted to cancel Brexit and rejoin. Every time the word was mentioned there was a huge cheer. (From a Tory constituency as well). Somebody or other is throwing away a potential USP that comes with great big flashing lights
FFS. You can’t “cancel” Brexit anymore than I can cancel my 50th birthday. I’d like to do both but sadly both have happened. Britain has Exited the EU. That’s Brexit. People (myself included) might want to rejoin but people (myself included) don’t want to rip the country apart again through another Referendum. If you lived in this country you’d realise how strong this feeling is. Most 2016 Remainers don’t want to gone through the pain of reopening the wounds, however much we regret the 2016 outcome. Another referendum would just recreate the recent chaos.
Just take French citizenship Roger. It’s because of people like you we lost. The best we can hope for for a generation is closer relations and possibly Single Market. We won’t rejoin until the pain of the last Referendum is long gone and, likely, both you and I are too.
Once in power I would like to see Starmer start planning and low level negotiating for us to join EFTA. He doesn't have to 'betray' anybody by actually making formal approaches or even think about making any real moves in his first term. But he could do the hard work, and lay the ground ready to present the electorate with a serious, well planned option at the next election.
It is what we should have done after the referendum but Cameron ran away and his successors were all trying to prove how 'pure' they were.
EFTA is a non-starter. The remaining members value a constructive relationship with the EU, and wouldn't welcome an unstable UK - which, in any case, would dwarf all of them and completely dominate the bloc.
I am these days wary of Opinium's methodology when last week TSE indicated no change in raw data, but a modest swing from Labour to Con. I will be less sceptical if the raw data is also trending towards the Cons/Reform/LDs.
That said I suspect Opinium are on the more realistic and dropping Labour level.
A Whitehall source said Cameron was “apoplectic” about Sunak’s decision but, when asked why he had not “picked Sunak up by his lapels”, he said: “There is only so much I can do.”
There was also fury at Buckingham Palace, where courtiers pointed out that the King, who is being treated for cancer, was advised not to travel but was determined to do so, despite being in pain. Advertisement
While the Tories are this weekend engaged in a circular firing squad to identify who to blame, the truth is, as one insider put it, everyone’s hands are covered in blood. The issue of what to do was debated in the three-day look-ahead meeting in Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at 1pm on Monday at which all Sunak’s key aides were present, including Isaac Levido, his campaign director, Liam Booth-Smith, the Downing Street chief of staff, and James Forsyth, his political secretary.
The fact that the King did what was required of him, when he actually had a reasonable excuse to leave it to the Prince of Wales, is not much remarked upon but only serves to make cut-and-run Rishi look even worse.
Not so much a matter of what were they thinking, but were they actually thinking at all?
And yet...if the King really is much more poorly than is admitted, it may be that Sunak - taken into confidence of this - decided the election needed to be got out the way sooner rather than later.
It is certainly possible.
Still doesn't justify skiving off D-Day in part, and doing an interview. It's a dies non in the old Roman sense, when no public business is transacted, whatever the date of the election. Doesn't exist, so to speak. Rather like the good old Presbyterian Sabbath in Scotland - though jacking off the evening service to meet a salesman from down south would have been positively welcome compared to Mr Sunak's effort, evidently.
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
I don't think I've used my image today yet. The % of veterans in Richmond constituency in 2021.
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
I note the ones on the list are all major military bases so presumably veterans settle where they know.
How many soldiers does Catterick Garrison have? around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families. From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
Still think that Sunak needs to man up and take on Farage. Farage is a one trick pony.
It's a trick Sunak has no meaningful counter to, and the Tory base know it - Farage would eat him alive.
Someone needs to start telling the truth about Farage's zero immigration thing: it's stupider and more harmful than any policy Corbyn ever came up with.
Farage is Corbyn on coke.
It's zero net immigration, not zero immigration. Arguably it is far too liberal.
Apologies, I thought I'd typed "net" in my post, but that's exactly what I mean. It would be a disaster.
You don't think it's possible to achieve the level of emigration necessary to balance the figures?
Interestingly. The last year to have net emigration was 1993. The year I left the country for seven years. One year after a shock Tory win. So it isn't impossible to achieve it next year, as all the bright ambitious young people bugger off in disgust. You know it makes sense.
On the subject of net emigration one of my local seats has this Reform Candidate:
@Phillip_Blond Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Interesting,
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
“Significant Chat” probably = he’s been reading politicalbetting.com
Comments
So is DKs making up their minds.
So a lot of those service companies that we want in the UK for the energy transitin are now moving to other parts of the world where they can use their O&G activities to continue to support and expand their renewables technology.
Obvious metaphor spotted.
Oh no, not now !
Sorry about that.
I’ve only been there 3 times, albeit for reasonably long visits, and don’t know it at all thoroughly like you clearly do. The culture is quite impenetrable to a casual visitor. The strong nationalism, independence, and ‘Janteloven' is so marked but with it the counter-culture, evidenced in movements like black metal. I chatted to one young chap, a shop assistant, on the Lofoten islands who said to me, ‘I hate this fucking place and can’t wait to get out. There is nothing whatsoever for a young person to do and it is so boring.'
As I say, I feel I’ve just dipped my toe though.
p.s. the last fortnight that I was there I saw two pieces of litter the entire trip.
The main danger to the chick is the fox but I can see your metaphor to be fair
The rules for election of a Leader are brief, but do say 'A Leader resigning from the Leadership of the Party is not eligible' etc etc for renomination, but not the process for resignation.
His being a Lord has no impact as Parliament is not sitting.
He is not standing for election
He has been PM before - for better or worse - and so knows the job and is known to world leaders.
He can be trusted not to abuse the appointment in such a way as to affect the election.
But where will the Tory share be when the late Swingback begins. There’s no way they would get 26% if election was the coming Thursday.
The question now is how big? Personally I don't care as long as the useless Tories are destroyed.
People are mentioning it on the doorstep, but Rishi gets some credit for promptly admitting it was a fuck up.
That said there are still some profitable NS operators milking old fields, most of which are unknown to British voters.
"His constituents living in Catterick Garrison previously said his decision to ditch the commemoration on June 6 was 'disgusting'."
He could be unseated. Seriously. Was already showing as being more marginal than people thought. He represents a major garrison town and shat on the armed forces...
If you could have PR BUT the first election under it led to a guaranteed Tory/Reform Coalition, would you still have it or keep FPTP?
https://x.com/skynews/status/1799524116778647565?s=46
23 Championships.
Yesterday's Telegraph "Ukraine: the Latest" podcast had what must be a 20 minute segment about Cricket in Ukraine, introduced by Indian Expats in recent years.
It passed me by as wallpaper and then sunk in ... wtf?
Today, we bring you the latest news from Ukraine and Europe, discuss the new front in Russia’s war on the West and we talk to author and translator Jonathan Campion about his book ‘Getting Out’ on the inspiring and moving story of Ukrainian cricket.
https://youtu.be/0ukCJQM5NFU?t=1084
That's democracy.
50% of the vote +1 deserves to form the government.
There but for the grace of God…
Lab lead in Opinium polls = 15, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 18, 14, 20, 18
See what I mean
Even it leads to a similar result, sole responsibility on him will always be much more difficult to prove.
Lab 46 (-2)
Con 21 (-4)
Ref 12(+3)
6 to 8 Jun so covering more of the outrage period
Not a highly dramatic shift but a pretty significant one, Tories were 23, 23, 25 in the previous Drltapoll GE polls. No real Faragasm even with the outrage.
I'd suggest a fair bit of Tory to DK covers a lump of the Change
Would be enough for crossover with Redfield Monday if repeated
And Norwegian flags everywhere
And yet, and yet, I can’t help but find myself admiring them for it all
It would be cowardice almost without equal.
Sometimes in order to protect freedom you have to restrict it?
BUT When would it have happened? when did the UK right wing parties last get over 50% of the vote?
Presumably active armed forces in Catterick Garrison (the biggest one, allegedly), are on top of this 8%.
The simplistic way for Reform to get immigration down to those numbers would be to close the universities to foreign applicants and do a Truss on the economy, thereby accelerating the number departing for Antipodes or wherever.
From his, and possibly another point of view, he might feel he is now in the position of being falsely accused of being the only hand behind the boulder, which he would have a a fairly good case that he isn't. Also, if it becomes increasingly clear that other people want him to go, it would be very hard to label that exclusively as cowardice,
The two topics of discussion on PB are ReFuk-Tory crossover and what would happen if Sunak resigned before polling day.
Oh, and I see that Rish was in Bish this morning. He thinks that is his defence lines up? More Dunkirk than D-Day.
Bet the tories wish they hadn't done it now.
Significant chat that Sunak may resign - can’t believe that myself. But I can imagine the stress is immense and it will only grow. When Reform get crossover they will start arguing that a Conservative vote is a wasted ballot and then …. it will only get worse.
Though as we don't check papers on departures hard to know.
The problem is that surely the correct policy should really be to encourage young people to move and settle in the UK and start families here; either that or you have to massively incentivise people to have children, which they aren't doing in sufficient numbers at present.
It is what we should have done after the referendum but Cameron ran away and his successors were all trying to prove how 'pure' they were.
But still, I'd always support PR.
One year after a shock Tory win. So it isn't impossible to achieve it next year, as all the bright ambitious young people bugger off in disgust.
You know it makes sense.
Also the post-covid rebound.
"Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
🚨 Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK
The Labour lead is now 18 points
· Labour 42% (-3)
· Conservatives 24% (-1)
· Lib Dems 10% (+2)
· SNP 3% (n/c)
· Greens 7% (+1)
· Reform 12% (+1)
Fieldwork: 5 - 7 June.
Changes from 29 - 31 May."
https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1799516752197365941
Shame about the result.
That said I suspect Opinium are on the more realistic and dropping Labour level.
How well-connected to current Tory sources is Philip Blond, I wonder ?
around 13,000 people
Catterick Garrison is also home to the Army Medical Services Training Centre and the Royal Army Veterinary Corps Training Centre. The garrison has a population of around 13,000 people, including military personnel and their families.
From Google Nugget.
So together that is ~10k adults on base, and ~8k off base, so in an electorate of ~84,000 that is just over 20%. Hmm.
I can't find Richmond (Yorks) in the constituency markets. On Betfair X Rishi is 30/100, which is lower than I would expect.
https://www.reformparty.uk/harborough-oadby-and-wigston-constituency
Who is planning to help the zero net immigration figures by retiring to Valencia*.
https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1549093/A-Place-in-the-Sun-Jean-Johansson-scolded-guest-property-offer-Valencia-120000
*perhaps she has an EU passport to aid the move.
Well, you would wouldn’t you?