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What to do if and when crossover happens – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.

    Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.

    And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).

    What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.

    In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.

    I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...

    I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?

    I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002
    Cookie said:

    I reckon between 50and 75.
    I'm more likely to be correct ;)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,108
    Leon said:

    Btw I am going anyway. It’s one of the reasons I’m coming to Kyiv. How could I not go there!?

    I’ve just been writing about the Kishinev pogrom for the gazette. Quite astonishingly pivotal in world history
    Babi Yar took place shortly before the Wannsee conference. There’s a school of thought that suggests that the impunity with which the boys in black & feldgrau carried out the massacres encouraged Hitler to go gang busters on the Final Solution.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,511

    https://x.com/johngramlich/status/1799074066122543190

    A growing share of registered voters in the United States say a person's gender is determined by their sex at birth:

    53% said this in September 2017
    56% in June 2021
    60% in May 2022
    65% in April 2024

    This view has become more common in both parties.

    Thankfully, I think the pendulum has swung enough, soon enough, that Labour won't go gender-crazy.
  • Leon said:

    This is genuinely the weirdest story of the week. Why isn’t he named? Why did he do it? He appears to be foreign. “No link to Denmark”. He assaults the Danish prime minister in public - ok she’s fine but it could have been a knife attack or acid or a machete

    And he gets…. 12 days in custody and is not named?? Am I missing something? Maybe he’s the son of Xi jinping??
    I may be wrong on this, but the story here looks very oddly written, and I'm wondering if he's being held on remand for 12 days pending trial? The story explains the reason he's being held is he's a flight risk, which suggests he's essentially been refused bail.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,680
    malcolmg said:

    It is a load of absolute bollox by a bunch of halfwitted clowns, smart alecs pretending they are superior and having to show the plebs the way.
    Yeah, from the two summaries above, I'd lean towards Malc's take.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,794

    Sunak is an even worse PM than Truss.

    Little sympathy for the Tory MPs who lose their seats at this election, they chose to let Sunak take over as leader and PM without an election. If between the entire cohort of Tory MPs they couldn't find anyone better than Sunak, why do any of them deserve to keep their seats?

    Well @DougSeal and I did try to tell you!

    Is it time for a Liz renaissance?

    TRUSS
  • carnforth said:

    Thankfully, I think the pendulum has swung enough, soon enough, that Labour won't go gender-crazy.
    Don't push it any further, you've won the debate. Now let it go.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,325
    Cookie said:

    I reckon between 50and 75.
    I reckon between 0 and 10
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    EPG said:

    You say they will enter the mainstream - but hasn't this been the position of the elected government since at least the arrival of Truss?
    Sort of - but RefUK are taking things much further. I posed the question a while back, would the UK civil service be able to scrap the equalities act were it to become government policy - given how the civil service has itself internalised a set of politicised values about minority rights? Scrapping the equalities act was unthinkable until yesterday, now it could potentially be a policy of the second biggest party.
  • Sean_F said:

    I reckon between 0 and 10
    Are you serious?
  • I understand that the Lib Dems are targetting a selcted number of constituencies.

    Is there any evidence on the ground that this is creating a differential voting impact compared with comparable constituencies?
  • Watch this again if you think Penny Mordaunt would have the Conservatives in with a much better chance of winning the general election:

    https://x.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1799475719585546509

    This was utter drivel.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    will you now be voting Conservative to keep them alive ?
    I will rely on you for that, Alan. Don't let me down.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    edited June 2024
    It won't happen, but assuming the Conservatives lose, is there a case for Sunak to stay on for a period? Tightly defined, but a period for the party to commission some serious research in to the whys of the election and for MPs to determine a coherent forward strategy prior to picking the next leader? Otherwise you may get very knee jerk reactions and the election of a new leader because they have a higher profile. I guess I am being idealistic 😁

    On policy platform, a strong and effective leader brings the Centre of politics to them, it isn't a fixed point. I do worry that the coalition of views in the Conservatives is increasingly hard to sustain, but it must be if the party are to win again.

    Ultimately we are all wierd political mixes. I think I would describe myself as liberal in the classical sense of fundamentally believing in free speech etc, socially I'm individually liberal but institutionally more conservative, economically I'm more interventionist, I have communitarian instincts, sceptical of any exclusive view the state or market are always right and I'm eurosceptic. I also strongly dislike over simplified political analysis and promises of easy solutions matched with at times cruel language use. But I also accept the limits of managerialism. Not sure what that makes me?!! 😄 I guess the closest to a coherent philosophy I've been attracted to is, as noted in the previous post, Nick Timothy's pamphlets through Onward.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,265

    I may be wrong on this, but the story here looks very oddly written, and I'm wondering if he's being held on remand for 12 days pending trial? The story explains the reason he's being held is he's a flight risk, which suggests he's essentially been refused bail.
    Apparently he’s a “white Polish drunkard” - this is revealed in response to anti-Muslim suspicions. But then why not just reveal his name? And…. 12 days…. For physically assaulting a PM?

    I know Denmark is famously laid back, I’ve seen Borgen, but still. That’s a bit too laid back

    Maybe you are right and the reporting is wrong
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,260
    edited June 2024

    I understand that the Lib Dems are targetting a selcted number of constituencies.

    Is there any evidence on the ground that this is creating a differential voting impact compared with comparable constituencies?

    Isn't the evidence that, historically, they tend to get a much better swing in seats they are targeting than not? For example, in the 1997 election (a long while ago but a "change" election in the direction of the centre left) the Lib Dem vote was down 1% nationally, but was up significantly in their target seats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,009
    James_M said:

    It won't happen, but assuming the Conservatives lose, is there a case for Sunak to stay on for a period? Tightly defined, but a period for the party to commission some serious research in to the whys of the election and for MPs to determine a coherent forward strategy prior to picking the next leader? Otherwise you may get very knee jerk reactions and the election of a new leader because they have a higher profile. I guess I am being idealistic 😁

    On policy platform, a strong and effective leader brings the Centre of politics to them, it isn't a fixed point. I do worry that the coalition of views in the Conservatives is increasingly hard to sustain, but it must be if the party are to win again.

    Ultimately we are all wierd political mixes. I think I would describe myself as liberal in the classical sense of fundamentally believing in free speech etc, socially I'm individually liberal but institutionally more conservative, economically I'm more interventionist, I have communitarian instincts, sceptical of any exclusibe view the state or market are always right and I'm eurosceptic. I also strongly dislike over simplified political analysis and promises of easy solutions matched with at times cruel language use. But I also accept the limits of managerialism. Not sure what that makes me?!! 😄 I guess the closest to a coherent philosophy I've been attracted to is, as noted in the previous post, Nick Timothy's pamphlets through Onward.

    I'm liberal in the classical

    There might be a case but I would be stunned if it happens. Those AI startups near Stanford wont invest themselves.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,680
    Barnesian said:

    I'm more likely to be correct ;)
    Yes, but my kudos will be greater :-)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    darkage said:

    Sort of - but RefUK are taking things much further. I posed the question a while back, would the UK civil service be able to scrap the equalities act were it to become government policy - given how the civil service has itself internalised a set of politicised values about minority rights? Scrapping the equalities act was unthinkable until yesterday, now it could potentially be a policy of the second biggest party.
    I think there are 3 questions here: (1) government policy; (2) the law; (3) policies of the civil service, more or less as an employer, I think you mean? Upon a change in the law, I think that either there would be a new set of rules under law, or a vacuum filled by other laws and any relevant precedent in common law. I guess they would continue current policies to the extent they remained not-unlawful, until alternative instructions were given by the government through the head of the civil service. That said, I have no idea how "politicised" or otherwise they are, especially compared to comparable knowledge employers like consultancies and tech firms where progressive values are part of the offer to young recruits.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,001

    Because Moon is annoyed their "actually the Tories are doing great" rubbish has failed.

    She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem, then she had a Damascene conversion to being a Tory and then spent the last two weeks telling us Rishi is actually good and the public will produce a Tory victory.

    Her judgement is a joke and she's been found out. That's why she's going off on one.
    “She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem”

    Dear Horse Bat. Stop lying about my voting record. This ain’t a game. This is serious.

    I’ve never said I’ve voted Labour. I said I have voted Libdem, and for a man with a bin on his head. All that we can put down to rebellious youthfulness. I’ve only ever posted that I will never in my life vote Labour.

    It’s perfectly okay for dissatisfied Tories to vote Lib Dem, because Lib Dem’s are very much centre right. Con, Ref, Libdem are right of centre parties. All the left agree on is the individual and the state, the parties of the right understand it’s families and neighbourhoods, and protecting our shared cultural inheritances that is the foundation of society, and not the state.

    The right cuts down Labours bulbous state and ruinous state spending, and by doing so boosts families, household incomes, aspiration, and individual freedom.

    Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action. If we don’t get Conservatives back in government soon, the country will fall apart.

    None of this is game playing, Horse Bat, like you refer to it with your child like level of political understanding.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    I clicked on the tweet. Wtf is William banging on about?

    How was D-Day not the start of liberation? When that dawn broke and many brave men lay dead on those beaches, it was the beginning of victory in Europe. Yes, it took 10 long months finally to push the Nazi machine back into oblivion but D-Day began the liberation of the West.

    I'm not sure crossing over to fiction is good because we're talking here about real people who lay down their lives, but I am reminded of King Theoden's battle charge cry, a book written by JRR Tolkien during the dark days of WWII:

    Arise, arise, Riders of Théoden!
    spear shall be shaken, shield shall be splintered,
    a sword-day, a red day, ere the sun rises!
    Ride now, ride now, ride! Ride for ruin and the world's ending!
    Death! Death! Death!
    Forth Eorlingas!
    Keep in mind, that truth or falsity or in-between means NOTHING to a certifiable sophist.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    kinabalu said:

    I will rely on you for that, Alan. Don't let me down.
    I wont be voting conservative. In fact I wont be voting at all, it's my son's wedding in France so I'll be cracking open the fizz and enjoying life.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,046
    James_M said:

    It won't happen, but assuming the Conservatives lose, is there a case for Sunak to stay on for a period?

    Depends how badly they lose.

    250 seats and a hung Parliament, defo.

    27 seats and fourth place, probably not.
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    The problem for Sunak remains the same. His only election strategy is vote for me or you get Starmer. But everyone thinks Labour have won anyway. So the threat is meaningless. A significant number of people will take a free punt and vote where they want, instead of allowing themselves to be bullied. Will it be enough to upset the cozy two party cartel? We will know in 4 weeks.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002

    I understand that the Lib Dems are targetting a selcted number of constituencies.

    Is there any evidence on the ground that this is creating a differential voting impact compared with comparable constituencies?

    I don't know how you would measure it except after the event (4th July).

    If you try to measure it by asking questions on voter intent in non-target constituencies (akin to canvassing) you influence the system. It's a bit like quantum uncertainty.
  • lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 61
    ydoethur said:

    Depends how badly they lose.

    250 seats and a hung Parliament, defo.

    27 seats and fourth place, probably not.
    Also depends if he has a seat
  • https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1799476309896175938

    Had a roaring time in Wokingham this morning.

    Let's make this Conservative Government history 🦖
  • “She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem”

    Dear Horse Bat. Stop lying about my voting record. This ain’t a game. This is serious.

    I’ve never said I’ve voted Labour. I said I have voted Libdem, and for a man with a bin on his head. All that we can put down to rebellious youthfulness. I’ve only ever posted that I will never in my life vote Labour.

    It’s perfectly okay for dissatisfied Tories to vote Lib Dem, because Lib Dem’s are very much centre right. Con, Ref, Libdem are right of centre parties. All the left agree on is the individual and the state, the parties of the right understand it’s families and neighbourhoods, and protecting our shared cultural inheritances that is the foundation of society, and not the state.

    The right cuts down Labours bulbous state and ruinous state spending, and by doing so boosts families, household incomes, aspiration, and individual freedom.

    Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action. If we don’t get Conservatives back in government soon, the country will fall apart.

    None of this is game playing, Horse Bat, like you refer to it with your child like level of political understanding.
    "ChatGPT, write some drivel about politics"
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,593
    edited June 2024

    I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?

    I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
    We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.

    Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    DM_Andy said:

    I asked ChatGPT a followup question which I think Sunak might have done.

    Not exactly the Oracle of Delphi, is it?

    For one thing, the O of D made sure to make it's answers as cryptic as possible with maximum possible interpretations.

    Much like impending UK 2024 GE party manifestos?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002
    I'm waiting for the first poll to drop.
    Does anyone know when the first one is due?
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    James_M said:

    It won't happen, but assuming the Conservatives lose, is there a case for Sunak to stay on for a period? Tightly defined, but a period for the party to commission some serious research in to the whys of the election and for MPs to determine a coherent forward strategy prior to picking the next leader? Otherwise you may get very knee jerk reactions and the election of a new leader because they have a higher profile. I guess I am being idealistic 😁
    .

    Personally I think the first by election of the new parliament will be for Sunak’s seat. He will be gone as leader the day after the general election and I cannot see him wanting to spend 5 years as an opposition back bencher.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    Reforms surge has not (yet) come from Tories who've stayed put. I expect it to fade back as time goes on and yeah, 25 to 28% with Labour high 30s, 97 style result plus 20 or minus 40
    Rather amazingly a 97 result would be at the low end of expectation now. But yes I also doubt the extinction event. I have Cons 150 to 199 seats at 9 and I like that for value. Cons in the 150s and Reform striking out would be my Ideal World result for the politics and the £££.
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161
    @Leon

    Soz but like I said, I'm not wasting any more breath on serial loser Farage
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.

    Its both. I power my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
    Well that at least is credible. Labour's policy is just nuts.

    However the disciminatory nature of taxation on the oil sector just means people wont invest. Some party needs to have policies to keep the sector alive. Who is going to do away with windfall taxes ?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Andy_JS said:
    I started reading the sentence assuming it would end with “years”, and was already to say “blimey that was quick”. And then it was “days”… Madness.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    A drawn out fight between a Rabbit and a Horse was not on my 2024 bingo card. Is there anything about this in the Book of Revelations?
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    I may be wrong on this, but the story here looks very oddly written, and I'm wondering if he's being held on remand for 12 days pending trial? The story explains the reason he's being held is he's a flight risk, which suggests he's essentially been refused bail.
    You appear to be right according to this report from Politiken (google translated):
    https://politiken.dk/danmark/art9935850/Varetægtsfængslet-for-overfald-på-statsministeren-var-fuld-og-psykisk-uligevægtig
    The prosecutor had requested the court to remand him for 26 days. But "immediately, the case already seems well-lit", noted the presiding judge, who therefore decided that 12 days in custody must give the police enough time to investigate the case.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243

    Ignoring the distorted way you are attempting to twist a viewpoint you disagree with, the very claim was that he supported speech he disagrees with but is banning it, which is clearly not free speech.

    Plus of course:

    Christianity attempts to teach all children that they are intrinsically sinful by virtue of original sin, and this sin can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated ...

    Should teaching about Christianity be banned by your logic?
    Slight footnote: Catholic Christianity teaches original sin. The Orthodox church doesn't, and the Church of England in its usual wonderful way is entirely ambiguous.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,046
    lockhimup said:

    Also depends if he has a seat
    He'll still be an arse. Does that count?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Barnesian said:

    I reckon between 40 and 280.
    Between 0-600. Willing to take a risk on the Speaker, the seats they aren’t standing in, and Bootle.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,085
    Leon said:

    Hah. Gratz on getting the relevance, anyways. If I go I’ll have that strong drink afterwards on your behalf
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/museum-of-unnecessary-things

    New exhibit arriving after 4 July: The Conservative Party

    Or how about https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/urinating-rainbow-statues

    or for Noom value - https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/one-street-museum-death-mask-collection
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Sunak is not going to resign. This reminds me of the silly posts we got before the LEs came in that Khan was going to lose.

    So we won't know for sure it's a ramped-up wrong rumor UNTIL Laura Kuenssberg reports that it's legit?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    There’s been a bit of a legal misunderstanding/translation error on the Reuters website. The alleged assailant of the Danish PM has been remanded for 12 days pending trial, not sentenced.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,804
    malcolmg said:

    Shock horror 65% realise reality
    Isn't the central position slightly more nuanced; that is that overwhelmingly birth sex and gender are the same and cannot possibly be properly changed, but in the human condition, rare exceptions mostly of a hermaphrodite nature do in fact occur.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,799

    Did Keir Starmer make his own D-Day gaffe by appearing to conflate it with VE Day?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1798604257991754028

    I did vaguely wonder but if he did, no-one cares.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    I wont be voting conservative. In fact I wont be voting at all, it's my son's wedding in France so I'll be cracking open the fizz and enjoying life.
    Well congrats to him and I hope that's a great day. But you could do a postal vote - and you should. They need you. The party of the right needs all the non-batty people of the right to stand up and (literally) be counted.

    No point looking at me. I can't vote Tory for medical reasons.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    My wife will be postal voting in both the UK and US elections this year. Totally pointless comment but QI for a politics site.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651

    So we won't know for sure it's a ramped-up wrong rumor UNTIL Laura Kuenssberg reports that it's legit?
    Correct answer. You have cracked the secret of British politics. Congrats! Your prize, the collected sayings of Dan Hodges, is in the post.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,804

    Slight footnote: Catholic Christianity teaches original sin. The Orthodox church doesn't, and the Church of England in its usual wonderful way is entirely ambiguous.
    Original sin in babies etc is about potential not actuality. That all humans are born with the capacity to go non trivially wrong is well understood by everyone, religious or not.

    How it is named in religious doctrine is hardly relevant. 'Original sin' is not a useful description in our world as we have lost the Aristotelian metaphysics in which it was once understood, so it doesn't make sense.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571
    Great header @TSE and good to see you back.

    It just reinforces for me why I don't bet big money on politics. I'd have confidently said at the start of the campaign that the demise of the Tories had been hugely overstated (I still think this) and that a buy at 200 seats would be a good call (I no longer think this!)

    I still find it incredible that the Tories might end up threatened by another party as the official opposition. I'm interested in which PBers think this is actually likely?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,009
    DougSeal said:

    My wife will be postal voting in both the UK and US elections this year. Totally pointless comment but QI for a politics site.

    Stop the steal!
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,085

    We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.

    Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
    a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:



  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651

    Stop the steal!
    Stop the seal? No, she uses her maiden name.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    Barnesian said:

    I reckon between 40 and 280.
    280 could be interesting. Then a deal with DUP and SNP - our 1979 friends - and it's the 5th term!
  • https://x.com/pswidlicki/status/1799481762676088945

    OK but he got 73% in 2019. If he needs to rely on a stitch-up to hold his seat then Tories really are looking at an ELE

    Williamson engineers a solution to stop Reform standing but one wonders why with such a large majority.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    DougSeal said:

    A drawn out fight between a Rabbit and a Horse was not on my 2024 bingo card. Is there anything about this in the Book of Revelations?

    It's an exotic place, isn't it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,202

    https://x.com/pswidlicki/status/1799481762676088945

    OK but he got 73% in 2019. If he needs to rely on a stitch-up to hold his seat then Tories really are looking at an ELE

    Williamson engineers a solution to stop Reform standing but one wonders why with such a large majority.

    To destroy bets on the Tories getting no seats, natch.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    https://x.com/pswidlicki/status/1799481762676088945

    OK but he got 73% in 2019. If he needs to rely on a stitch-up to hold his seat then Tories really are looking at an ELE

    Williamson engineers a solution to stop Reform standing but one wonders why with such a large majority.

    'Reform reckon' Nuff said
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Which constituency is "Rochdale Pioneers" contesting in 2024 UK GE?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Which constituency is "Rochdale Pioneers" contesting in 2024 UK GE?

    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,903
    Play off between England and Australia today in Scotland's group. Given that the weather saved England against the mighty Scots probably favour them to win today but it may be tight.

    Oh, and by the way, the Saffers are at it again. The first ball run out was just hilarious. Currently 16-4.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,974
    sarissa said:

    a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:



    A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,202
    DougSeal said:

    A drawn out fight between a Rabbit and a Horse was not on my 2024 bingo card. Is there anything about this in the Book of Revelations?

    No, but I think Dr Venkman refers to it in Ghostbusters....
  • 'Reform reckon' Nuff said
    Also the seat Williamson is contesting is different from the previous election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,075
    Barnesian said:

    I reckon between 40 and 280.
    Between 0 and 631
  • 'Reform reckon' Nuff said
    On this occasion, surely they are right? A defection too late for RefUK to come up with an alternative candidate is almost certainly planned.

    I don't say that as a particular criticism of Williamson or the Tories - that's politics, ultimately, and RefUK obviously didn't vet their candidate very carefully. But the idea he just happened to have a Damascene conversion at the exact moment it was just too late to replce him is a little far-fetched.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,875
    edited June 2024
    Good evening

    After Sunak's disgraceful behaviour I have no idea how the conservatives deal with it but no matter, Farage being hailed as the Messiah of the right should worry anyone who believes in a fair society and democracy

    He is Trump supporting, anti vax and net zero, and promotes division and discord

    I notice @Roger dismisses him as virtually irrelevant but he is not.

    The cameras are following him 24/7 and he is dominating the agenda so much I expect Labour supporters in the red wall may be attracted to his rhetoric, as any improvement for Reform can only come from them as he has converted as many conservatives as is likely

    I do not know how this pans out and whether we will see tactical voting to try to dismiss his influence, but be not complacent, Farage as an MP will attrack a lot of attention and continue the disruption in our politics
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,099
    edited June 2024

    https://x.com/pswidlicki/status/1799481762676088945

    OK but he got 73% in 2019. If he needs to rely on a stitch-up to hold his seat then Tories really are looking at an ELE

    Williamson engineers a solution to stop Reform standing but one wonders why with such a large majority.

    The 73% seat, South Staffs, doesn't exist anymore. It's been divided between Kingswinford and Stone. Gavin Williamson's new seat is still pretty safe but nothing like 73%. This tweeter should have checked that first.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    On this occasion, surely they are right? A defection too late for RefUK to come up with an alternative candidate is almost certainly planned.

    I don't say that as a particular criticism of Williamson or the Tories - that's politics, ultimately, and RefUK obviously didn't vet their candidate very carefully. But the idea he just happened to have a Damascene conversion at the exact moment it was just too late to replce him is a little far-fetched.
    I guess so
  • Between 0 and 631
    I can narrow that down significantly to between 0 and 630 (no candidate in Rotherham).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,099

    Tories between 100 and 250 I reckon.

    That's a joke I assume. Reminds me of the BBC's 1987 election night forecast which was something like a range between Tories short by 20 and a majority of 100. David Dimbleby's first comment about it was "Is this poll really worth anything?"
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Interesting to see how some PBers leapt to conclusion, that the assailant who attacked the Danish PM very recently, has been sentenced to just 12 day incarceration. Apparently without trial or any investigation as to motive or anything else.

    Yeah, right. Or rather, wrong. Obviously!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    rcs1000 said:

    A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
    And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.

    Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,265
    edited June 2024

    Interesting to see how some PBers leapt to conclusion, that the assailant who attacked the Danish PM very recently, has been sentenced to just 12 day incarceration. Apparently without trial or any investigation as to motive or anything else.

    Yeah, right. Or rather, wrong. Obviously!

    Because that’s what the Reuters report said in its headline


    “Man who attacked Danish PM sentenced to 12 days in custody”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/suspect-face-preliminary-questioning-after-assault-danish-pm-frederiksen-2024-06-08/

    Indeed it still says that after being updated. Very misleading



    “COPENHAGEN, June 8 (Reuters) - A 39-year old man who assaulted Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Copenhagen on Friday causing her to suffer a neck injury was sentenced on Saturday to 12 days in custody, Danish police said.”
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,202
    Got to love local news. Somebody down here in the SW is on a mission: to crochet a life-size cow.

    Whatever gets you through the election, I guess.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,903
    rcs1000 said:

    A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
    And, unbelievably, we are still at it. Still wanting "windfall taxes" discouraging investment and the creation of jobs. Still not thinking strategically in terms of what infrastructure is required to maximise the output of the new, smaller fields. If you want a study of UK economic incompetence its as good an example as any.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,593

    Well that at least is credible. Labour's policy is just nuts.

    However the disciminatory nature of taxation on the oil sector just means people wont invest. Some party needs to have policies to keep the sector alive. Who is going to do away with windfall taxes ?
    The truth is that as the sector winds down the investment will need to involve government - CCS will play a big part. The Tories can't be trusted - despite having St Fergus here the money went to England - and Duguid praised Johnson for not investing here.

    My dad was a long-term investor in energy stocks, my mum still owns shares in companies involved in the north sea. The future is not them - the sector is winding down as reserve depletes. But if we want to keep the sector and jobs and more investment we need to back renewables.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,508
    James_M said:

    It won't happen, but assuming the Conservatives lose, is there a case for Sunak to stay on for a period? Tightly defined, but a period for the party to commission some serious research in to the whys of the election and for MPs to determine a coherent forward strategy prior to picking the next leader? Otherwise you may get very knee jerk reactions and the election of a new leader because they have a higher profile. I guess I am being idealistic 😁

    On policy platform, a strong and effective leader brings the Centre of politics to them, it isn't a fixed point. I do worry that the coalition of views in the Conservatives is increasingly hard to sustain, but it must be if the party are to win again.

    Ultimately we are all wierd political mixes. I think I would describe myself as liberal in the classical sense of fundamentally believing in free speech etc, socially I'm individually liberal but institutionally more conservative, economically I'm more interventionist, I have communitarian instincts, sceptical of any exclusive view the state or market are always right and I'm eurosceptic. I also strongly dislike over simplified political analysis and promises of easy solutions matched with at times cruel language use. But I also accept the limits of managerialism. Not sure what that makes me?!! 😄 I guess the closest to a coherent philosophy I've been attracted to is, as noted in the previous post, Nick Timothy's pamphlets through Onward.

    This is essentially what Michael Howard did after the May 2005 defeat - announced that he'd be standing down at the end of the year.

    In the meantime, he promoted the likely contenders - David Cameron got his first Shadow Cabinet role, George Osborne became Shadow Chancellor, Liam Fox became Shadow Foreign Sec (and David Davis remained as Shadow Home Sec). The party conference in October was gave a chance for them to be tested, and the future direction of the party was thoroughly debated.

    The party owes Howard a debt for doing such a good job of managing defeat. So, yes, Sunak's best chance of salvaging his reputation might be to do something similar.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,046

    There is a worse result for the Tories than getting no MPs.

    Getting one: Gavin Williamson.

    Could be worse still.

    Getting one: Michael Fabricant.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,265
    Heathener said:

    And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.

    Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
    You know they bulldoze ethnic minority ghettoes if they feel they are refusing to assimilate?

    “How Denmark’s ‘ghetto list’ is ripping apart migrant communities
    Copenhagen and other cities are planning mass housing evictions in a ‘social experiment’ to encourage integration”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/how-denmarks-ghetto-list-is-ripping-apart-migrant-communities
  • eekeek Posts: 29,469
    edited June 2024

    Between 0 and 631
    0 and 635, they are standing in 5 seats in NI but not Rotherham or Chorley.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    edited June 2024
    Leon said:

    Because that’s what the Reuters report said in its headline


    “Man who attacked Danish PM sentenced to 12 days in custody”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/suspect-face-preliminary-questioning-after-assault-danish-pm-frederiksen-2024-06-08/

    Indeed it still says that after being updated. Very misleading
    The English speaking media, particularly that in the U.K., often don’t understand the detail of legal procedure in their own jurisdictions. Reporting on that of an overseas, Civil Law, jurisdiction and translating its proceedings into English is ripe for misinterpretation. It was rife when Assange was facing charges in Sweden. Accurate reporting required an understanding of Swedish criminal procedure and the Swedish language. The results were predictable.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002

    Between 0 and 631
    You've got the idea
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,385
    FPT

    Here’s a big question

    Does the 4 way weirdness Lab/Lib/REF/Con poll mean the exit poll might be much less accurate than normal?

    If so, could present post-exit poll trading opportunities on election night b

    No.

    We heard similar arguments in 2015, Sir John Curtice and his team know what they are doing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,265
    DougSeal said:

    The English speaking media, particularly that in the U.K., often don’t understand the detail of legal procedure in their own jurisdictions. Reporting on that of an overseas, Civil Law, jurisdiction and translating its proceedings into English is ripe for misinterpretation. It was rife when Assange was facing charges in Sweden. Accurate reporting required an understanding of Swedish criminal procedure and the Swedish languages. The results were predictable.
    That makes sense. This is a particularly egregious example. Sack that journalist
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,046
    England open the bowling with two part-time spinners.

    I think it's fair to say they've got a big Head about their plans.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    Leon said:

    You know they bulldoze ethnic minority ghettoes if they feel they are refusing to assimilate?

    “How Denmark’s ‘ghetto list’ is ripping apart migrant communities
    Copenhagen and other cities are planning mass housing evictions in a ‘social experiment’ to encourage integration”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/how-denmarks-ghetto-list-is-ripping-apart-migrant-communities
    Quite how we got here from an allegedly drunk Polish guy allegedly pushing the Danish PM violently in the back I don’t know. But anyway.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,108
    Leon said:

    You know they bulldoze ethnic minority ghettoes if they feel they are refusing to assimilate?

    “How Denmark’s ‘ghetto list’ is ripping apart migrant communities
    Copenhagen and other cities are planning mass housing evictions in a ‘social experiment’ to encourage integration”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/how-denmarks-ghetto-list-is-ripping-apart-migrant-communities
    I think Heathener is referring to Norway. Not sure what their bulldozing ethnic minority ghettoes position is.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,403
    ydoethur said:

    Could be worse still.

    Getting one: Michael Fabricant.
    From the slime to the ridiculous.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,903
    ydoethur said:

    England open the bowling with two part-time spinners.

    I think it's fair to say they've got a big Head about their plans.

    Is Rishi being consulted on line? Its got that feel about it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,385
    ydoethur said:

    England open the bowling with two part-time spinners.

    I think it's fair to say they've got a big Head about their plans.

    Will Jacks has cost England this match.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Some PBers apparently believe anything they read? Bad policy, esp. on PB.

    Am NOT claiming superior insight, let alone moral (or immoral) high ground.

    But I did think, that doesn't make sense. Reuters or no Reuters. Especially as unclear to incoherent "English" is become a staple of international journalism.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,265
    DougSeal said:

    Quite how we got here from an allegedly drunk Polish guy allegedly pushing the Danish PM violently in the back I don’t know. But anyway.
    Apologies to PB. I am half asleep in the back of a Ukrainian bus. I got my nordics mixed

    Jeez Kyiv is no looker
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,075

    No, but I think Dr Venkman refers to it in Ghostbusters....
    Yes, Sir, that's right: this man has no dick.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,075
    eek said:

    0 and 635, they are standing in 5 seats in NI but not Rotherham or Chorley.
    Yeah, they won't win those ones.

    I'm very confident in my prediction.
This discussion has been closed.