Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
Not to kill the mood, but Babi Yar would be worth visiting and one would likely need a strong drink afterwards. I believe it featured in a distinguished British novel.
Edit: beaten to it by the lad hisself!
Btw I am going anyway. It’s one of the reasons I’m coming to Kyiv. How could I not go there!?
I’ve just been writing about the Kishinev pogrom for the gazette. Quite astonishingly pivotal in world history
Babi Yar took place shortly before the Wannsee conference. There’s a school of thought that suggests that the impunity with which the boys in black & feldgrau carried out the massacres encouraged Hitler to go gang busters on the Final Solution.
This is genuinely the weirdest story of the week. Why isn’t he named? Why did he do it? He appears to be foreign. “No link to Denmark”. He assaults the Danish prime minister in public - ok she’s fine but it could have been a knife attack or acid or a machete
And he gets…. 12 days in custody and is not named?? Am I missing something? Maybe he’s the son of Xi jinping??
I may be wrong on this, but the story here looks very oddly written, and I'm wondering if he's being held on remand for 12 days pending trial? The story explains the reason he's being held is he's a flight risk, which suggests he's essentially been refused bail.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
Except he doesn't.
He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)
“Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.
Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.
All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.
Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.
Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.
The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.
Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist
It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.
Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no
That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?
Critical Race Theory is an acdemic discipline used to evaluate historical sources and attitudes. It's aimed at academic historians, and is 'taught', such as it is, to people studying history at degree level. It doesn't teach children *anything*, because it's not taught to children, It doesn't teach *anyone* that they are intrinsically racist, it teaches that decisions can be intrinsically racist without being consciously so (although they can be consciously racist too). It doesn't teach anyone about *denying* anything, it teaches bout *thinking* about everything.
So apart from everything, you got nothing right.
It is a load of absolute bollox by a bunch of halfwitted clowns, smart alecs pretending they are superior and having to show the plebs the way.
Yeah, from the two summaries above, I'd lean towards Malc's take.
Little sympathy for the Tory MPs who lose their seats at this election, they chose to let Sunak take over as leader and PM without an election. If between the entire cohort of Tory MPs they couldn't find anyone better than Sunak, why do any of them deserve to keep their seats?
If you go and look at the reform manifesto what you can say is that it comprises 'a plan'. Not one that I would necessarily vote for but it will be different to what both Labour and the Conservatives wheel out, ie a load of vague soundbites trying to please everyone. The luxury perhaps of not expecting to form a government.
Regarding the stuff about abolishing critical race theory, and 'reforming' the equalities act, and ending the hate speech stuff... it matters to some people, and there will be a whole load of other people who will be completely neutral about it and it won't stop them from voting for the reform party.
In the end their position on free speech is not that different to the other parties and indeed the prevailing legal situation in the UK - censorious and illiberal. But what you will find now is that because of the reform party the right wing criticisms of 'woke' will enter the political mainstream.
You say they will enter the mainstream - but hasn't this been the position of the elected government since at least the arrival of Truss?
Sort of - but RefUK are taking things much further. I posed the question a while back, would the UK civil service be able to scrap the equalities act were it to become government policy - given how the civil service has itself internalised a set of politicised values about minority rights? Scrapping the equalities act was unthinkable until yesterday, now it could potentially be a policy of the second biggest party.
Wow, what a mess the Cons are getting themselves in. Reform are a sell on the seats spreads imo but I'm not doing it. You'd need a chunky unit stake to make it worthwhile and with that comes a serious downside. I'll be horrified enough if that shower have a spectacular night without adding in a big financial hit.
TBH although it's exciting I'm not in love with this whole development. I'd prefer a nice traditional Labour landslide a la 45 and 97 with the Conservatives battered and bloodied but still breathing - and Farage can skulk off to America. Let's not be succumbing to that sort of politics just because some other countries are.
will you now be voting Conservative to keep them alive ?
I will rely on you for that, Alan. Don't let me down.
It won't happen, but assuming the Conservatives lose, is there a case for Sunak to stay on for a period? Tightly defined, but a period for the party to commission some serious research in to the whys of the election and for MPs to determine a coherent forward strategy prior to picking the next leader? Otherwise you may get very knee jerk reactions and the election of a new leader because they have a higher profile. I guess I am being idealistic 😁
On policy platform, a strong and effective leader brings the Centre of politics to them, it isn't a fixed point. I do worry that the coalition of views in the Conservatives is increasingly hard to sustain, but it must be if the party are to win again.
Ultimately we are all wierd political mixes. I think I would describe myself as liberal in the classical sense of fundamentally believing in free speech etc, socially I'm individually liberal but institutionally more conservative, economically I'm more interventionist, I have communitarian instincts, sceptical of any exclusive view the state or market are always right and I'm eurosceptic. I also strongly dislike over simplified political analysis and promises of easy solutions matched with at times cruel language use. But I also accept the limits of managerialism. Not sure what that makes me?!! 😄 I guess the closest to a coherent philosophy I've been attracted to is, as noted in the previous post, Nick Timothy's pamphlets through Onward.
This is genuinely the weirdest story of the week. Why isn’t he named? Why did he do it? He appears to be foreign. “No link to Denmark”. He assaults the Danish prime minister in public - ok she’s fine but it could have been a knife attack or acid or a machete
And he gets…. 12 days in custody and is not named?? Am I missing something? Maybe he’s the son of Xi jinping??
I may be wrong on this, but the story here looks very oddly written, and I'm wondering if he's being held on remand for 12 days pending trial? The story explains the reason he's being held is he's a flight risk, which suggests he's essentially been refused bail.
Apparently he’s a “white Polish drunkard” - this is revealed in response to anti-Muslim suspicions. But then why not just reveal his name? And…. 12 days…. For physically assaulting a PM?
I know Denmark is famously laid back, I’ve seen Borgen, but still. That’s a bit too laid back
I understand that the Lib Dems are targetting a selcted number of constituencies.
Is there any evidence on the ground that this is creating a differential voting impact compared with comparable constituencies?
Isn't the evidence that, historically, they tend to get a much better swing in seats they are targeting than not? For example, in the 1997 election (a long while ago but a "change" election in the direction of the centre left) the Lib Dem vote was down 1% nationally, but was up significantly in their target seats.
It won't happen, but assuming the Conservatives lose, is there a case for Sunak to stay on for a period? Tightly defined, but a period for the party to commission some serious research in to the whys of the election and for MPs to determine a coherent forward strategy prior to picking the next leader? Otherwise you may get very knee jerk reactions and the election of a new leader because they have a higher profile. I guess I am being idealistic 😁
On policy platform, a strong and effective leader brings the Centre of politics to them, it isn't a fixed point. I do worry that the coalition of views in the Conservatives is increasingly hard to sustain, but it must be if the party are to win again.
Ultimately we are all wierd political mixes. I think I would describe myself as liberal in the classical sense of fundamentally believing in free speech etc, socially I'm individually liberal but institutionally more conservative, economically I'm more interventionist, I have communitarian instincts, sceptical of any exclusibe view the state or market are always right and I'm eurosceptic. I also strongly dislike over simplified political analysis and promises of easy solutions matched with at times cruel language use. But I also accept the limits of managerialism. Not sure what that makes me?!! 😄 I guess the closest to a coherent philosophy I've been attracted to is, as noted in the previous post, Nick Timothy's pamphlets through Onward.
I'm liberal in the classical
There might be a case but I would be stunned if it happens. Those AI startups near Stanford wont invest themselves.
If you go and look at the reform manifesto what you can say is that it comprises 'a plan'. Not one that I would necessarily vote for but it will be different to what both Labour and the Conservatives wheel out, ie a load of vague soundbites trying to please everyone. The luxury perhaps of not expecting to form a government.
Regarding the stuff about abolishing critical race theory, and 'reforming' the equalities act, and ending the hate speech stuff... it matters to some people, and there will be a whole load of other people who will be completely neutral about it and it won't stop them from voting for the reform party.
In the end their position on free speech is not that different to the other parties and indeed the prevailing legal situation in the UK - censorious and illiberal. But what you will find now is that because of the reform party the right wing criticisms of 'woke' will enter the political mainstream.
You say they will enter the mainstream - but hasn't this been the position of the elected government since at least the arrival of Truss?
Sort of - but RefUK are taking things much further. I posed the question a while back, would the UK civil service be able to scrap the equalities act were it to become government policy - given how the civil service has itself internalised a set of politicised values about minority rights? Scrapping the equalities act was unthinkable until yesterday, now it could potentially be a policy of the second biggest party.
I think there are 3 questions here: (1) government policy; (2) the law; (3) policies of the civil service, more or less as an employer, I think you mean? Upon a change in the law, I think that either there would be a new set of rules under law, or a vacuum filled by other laws and any relevant precedent in common law. I guess they would continue current policies to the extent they remained not-unlawful, until alternative instructions were given by the government through the head of the civil service. That said, I have no idea how "politicised" or otherwise they are, especially compared to comparable knowledge employers like consultancies and tech firms where progressive values are part of the offer to young recruits.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
Why does anyone post any links on here? A: to share news, opinion, information, gossip, jokes...
I cannot imagine why you are so sore about Battery posting this?
Because Moon is annoyed their "actually the Tories are doing great" rubbish has failed.
She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem, then she had a Damascene conversion to being a Tory and then spent the last two weeks telling us Rishi is actually good and the public will produce a Tory victory.
Her judgement is a joke and she's been found out. That's why she's going off on one.
“She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem”
Dear Horse Bat. Stop lying about my voting record. This ain’t a game. This is serious.
I’ve never said I’ve voted Labour. I said I have voted Libdem, and for a man with a bin on his head. All that we can put down to rebellious youthfulness. I’ve only ever posted that I will never in my life vote Labour.
It’s perfectly okay for dissatisfied Tories to vote Lib Dem, because Lib Dem’s are very much centre right. Con, Ref, Libdem are right of centre parties. All the left agree on is the individual and the state, the parties of the right understand it’s families and neighbourhoods, and protecting our shared cultural inheritances that is the foundation of society, and not the state.
The right cuts down Labours bulbous state and ruinous state spending, and by doing so boosts families, household incomes, aspiration, and individual freedom.
Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action. If we don’t get Conservatives back in government soon, the country will fall apart.
None of this is game playing, Horse Bat, like you refer to it with your child like level of political understanding.
I clicked on the tweet. Wtf is William banging on about?
How was D-Day not the start of liberation? When that dawn broke and many brave men lay dead on those beaches, it was the beginning of victory in Europe. Yes, it took 10 long months finally to push the Nazi machine back into oblivion but D-Day began the liberation of the West.
I'm not sure crossing over to fiction is good because we're talking here about real people who lay down their lives, but I am reminded of King Theoden's battle charge cry, a book written by JRR Tolkien during the dark days of WWII:
Arise, arise, Riders of Théoden! spear shall be shaken, shield shall be splintered, a sword-day, a red day, ere the sun rises! Ride now, ride now, ride! Ride for ruin and the world's ending! Death! Death! Death! Forth Eorlingas!
Keep in mind, that truth or falsity or in-between means NOTHING to a certifiable sophist.
Wow, what a mess the Cons are getting themselves in. Reform are a sell on the seats spreads imo but I'm not doing it. You'd need a chunky unit stake to make it worthwhile and with that comes a serious downside. I'll be horrified enough if that shower have a spectacular night without adding in a big financial hit.
TBH although it's exciting I'm not in love with this whole development. I'd prefer a nice traditional Labour landslide a la 45 and 97 with the Conservatives battered and bloodied but still breathing - and Farage can skulk off to America. Let's not be succumbing to that sort of politics just because some other countries are.
will you now be voting Conservative to keep them alive ?
I will rely on you for that, Alan. Don't let me down.
I wont be voting conservative. In fact I wont be voting at all, it's my son's wedding in France so I'll be cracking open the fizz and enjoying life.
The problem for Sunak remains the same. His only election strategy is vote for me or you get Starmer. But everyone thinks Labour have won anyway. So the threat is meaningless. A significant number of people will take a free punt and vote where they want, instead of allowing themselves to be bullied. Will it be enough to upset the cozy two party cartel? We will know in 4 weeks.
I understand that the Lib Dems are targetting a selcted number of constituencies.
Is there any evidence on the ground that this is creating a differential voting impact compared with comparable constituencies?
I don't know how you would measure it except after the event (4th July).
If you try to measure it by asking questions on voter intent in non-target constituencies (akin to canvassing) you influence the system. It's a bit like quantum uncertainty.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
Why does anyone post any links on here? A: to share news, opinion, information, gossip, jokes...
I cannot imagine why you are so sore about Battery posting this?
Because Moon is annoyed their "actually the Tories are doing great" rubbish has failed.
She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem, then she had a Damascene conversion to being a Tory and then spent the last two weeks telling us Rishi is actually good and the public will produce a Tory victory.
Her judgement is a joke and she's been found out. That's why she's going off on one.
“She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem”
Dear Horse Bat. Stop lying about my voting record. This ain’t a game. This is serious.
I’ve never said I’ve voted Labour. I said I have voted Libdem, and for a man with a bin on his head. All that we can put down to rebellious youthfulness. I’ve only ever posted that I will never in my life vote Labour.
It’s perfectly okay for dissatisfied Tories to vote Lib Dem, because Lib Dem’s are very much centre right. Con, Ref, Libdem are right of centre parties. All the left agree on is the individual and the state, the parties of the right understand it’s families and neighbourhoods, and protecting our shared cultural inheritances that is the foundation of society, and not the state.
The right cuts down Labours bulbous state and ruinous state spending, and by doing so boosts families, household incomes, aspiration, and individual freedom.
Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action. If we don’t get Conservatives back in government soon, the country will fall apart.
None of this is game playing, Horse Bat, like you refer to it with your child like level of political understanding.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
Ha! Don;t know if @leon has seen this, but Matthew Parris asked chatgpt if Sunak should have stayed in France. Even chatgpt has more empathy than Rishi!
Or, these days, the PM could have asked ChatGPT. I did — forgetting, incidentally, to tell the app that the pressing TV interview was only a recording. This was the virtual robot’s reply: “As the prime minister, attending a memorial event for the D-Day landings is a significant duty, reflecting respect and honor [sic] for the sacrifices made during World War II. This event is not only important to veterans and their families but also to the international community, particularly given the presence of other world leaders. Missing it for a TV interview could be seen as prioritising personal political gains over national and historical responsibilities, which might not be well-received by the public and other nations. It would be advisable to attend the D-Day memorial and find another time for the interview.”
I asked ChatGPT a followup question which I think Sunak might have done.
My followup: Can I attend some of the events and then sneak back to London to record an interview with ITV?
ChatGPT: Attending some of the D-Day events and then returning to London for a high-profile interview with ITV is a savvy move that allows you to balance both your ceremonial duties and campaign needs. Here’s how you can manage this effectively:
Not exactly the Oracle of Delphi, is it?
For one thing, the O of D made sure to make it's answers as cryptic as possible with maximum possible interpretations.
It won't happen, but assuming the Conservatives lose, is there a case for Sunak to stay on for a period? Tightly defined, but a period for the party to commission some serious research in to the whys of the election and for MPs to determine a coherent forward strategy prior to picking the next leader? Otherwise you may get very knee jerk reactions and the election of a new leader because they have a higher profile. I guess I am being idealistic 😁 .
Personally I think the first by election of the new parliament will be for Sunak’s seat. He will be gone as leader the day after the general election and I cannot see him wanting to spend 5 years as an opposition back bencher.
I'm sticking my neck out and saying the Conservatives won't go below 25% and 130 seats. Old habits die hard for most core Tory voters.
Agreed. 2 million or whatever Tories arent suddenly going to sit on their hands because Sunak skived off an afternoon, however shit it was
I am inclined to agree with both of you. Maybe 150 seats and 28% in the end, a significant base in the Commons and the country to be able to rebuild over time.
Reforms surge has not (yet) come from Tories who've stayed put. I expect it to fade back as time goes on and yeah, 25 to 28% with Labour high 30s, 97 style result plus 20 or minus 40
Rather amazingly a 97 result would be at the low end of expectation now. But yes I also doubt the extinction event. I have Cons 150 to 199 seats at 9 and I like that for value. Cons in the 150s and Reform striking out would be my Ideal World result for the politics and the £££.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I power my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
Well that at least is credible. Labour's policy is just nuts.
However the disciminatory nature of taxation on the oil sector just means people wont invest. Some party needs to have policies to keep the sector alive. Who is going to do away with windfall taxes ?
This is genuinely the weirdest story of the week. Why isn’t he named? Why did he do it? He appears to be foreign. “No link to Denmark”. He assaults the Danish prime minister in public - ok she’s fine but it could have been a knife attack or acid or a machete
And he gets…. 12 days in custody and is not named?? Am I missing something? Maybe he’s the son of Xi jinping??
I may be wrong on this, but the story here looks very oddly written, and I'm wondering if he's being held on remand for 12 days pending trial? The story explains the reason he's being held is he's a flight risk, which suggests he's essentially been refused bail.
The prosecutor had requested the court to remand him for 26 days. But "immediately, the case already seems well-lit", noted the presiding judge, who therefore decided that 12 days in custody must give the police enough time to investigate the case.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
Except he doesn't.
He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)
“Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.
Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.
All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.
Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.
Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.
The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.
Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist
It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.
Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no
That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?
Ignoring the distorted way you are attempting to twist a viewpoint you disagree with, the very claim was that he supported speech he disagrees with but is banning it, which is clearly not free speech.
Plus of course:
Christianity attempts to teach all children that they are intrinsically sinful by virtue of original sin, and this sin can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated ...
Should teaching about Christianity be banned by your logic?
Slight footnote: Catholic Christianity teaches original sin. The Orthodox church doesn't, and the Church of England in its usual wonderful way is entirely ambiguous.
'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
Not to kill the mood, but Babi Yar would be worth visiting and one would likely need a strong drink afterwards. I believe it featured in a distinguished British novel.
Edit: beaten to it by the lad hisself!
Hah. Gratz on getting the relevance, anyways. If I go I’ll have that strong drink afterwards on your behalf
There’s been a bit of a legal misunderstanding/translation error on the Reuters website. The alleged assailant of the Danish PM has been remanded for 12 days pending trial, not sentenced.
A growing share of registered voters in the United States say a person's gender is determined by their sex at birth:
53% said this in September 2017 56% in June 2021 60% in May 2022 65% in April 2024
This view has become more common in both parties.
Shock horror 65% realise reality
Isn't the central position slightly more nuanced; that is that overwhelmingly birth sex and gender are the same and cannot possibly be properly changed, but in the human condition, rare exceptions mostly of a hermaphrodite nature do in fact occur.
Wow, what a mess the Cons are getting themselves in. Reform are a sell on the seats spreads imo but I'm not doing it. You'd need a chunky unit stake to make it worthwhile and with that comes a serious downside. I'll be horrified enough if that shower have a spectacular night without adding in a big financial hit.
TBH although it's exciting I'm not in love with this whole development. I'd prefer a nice traditional Labour landslide a la 45 and 97 with the Conservatives battered and bloodied but still breathing - and Farage can skulk off to America. Let's not be succumbing to that sort of politics just because some other countries are.
will you now be voting Conservative to keep them alive ?
I will rely on you for that, Alan. Don't let me down.
I wont be voting conservative. In fact I wont be voting at all, it's my son's wedding in France so I'll be cracking open the fizz and enjoying life.
Well congrats to him and I hope that's a great day. But you could do a postal vote - and you should. They need you. The party of the right needs all the non-batty people of the right to stand up and (literally) be counted.
No point looking at me. I can't vote Tory for medical reasons.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
The main way in which he's a liberal is that he believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it.
Except he doesn't.
He's all for banning all kinds of free speech with which he disagrees e.g. his policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?gay rights or gender rights in schools (to quote directly @BartholomewRoberts previous thread)
“Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.
Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.
All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.
Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.
Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.
The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.
Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
Critical Race Theory attempts to teach all white children that they are intrinsically racist and sinful by virtue of their skin colour, and this racism can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated. Moreover, it tells white kids that if they deny their racism that is PROOF of their racism: as only a racist would deny they are racist
It is a vile, evil, degraded, and anti-white theology and it has as much place in our schools as outright white supremacism.
Look at it this way. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently superior and more noble? I imagine you don’t. Do you want your kids to be taught whites are inherently morally inferior and sinful? Also no
That’s the position of Farage: teach neither of these things. What’s yours?
Ignoring the distorted way you are attempting to twist a viewpoint you disagree with, the very claim was that he supported speech he disagrees with but is banning it, which is clearly not free speech.
Plus of course:
Christianity attempts to teach all children that they are intrinsically sinful by virtue of original sin, and this sin can never be extirpated, merely ameliorated ...
Should teaching about Christianity be banned by your logic?
Slight footnote: Catholic Christianity teaches original sin. The Orthodox church doesn't, and the Church of England in its usual wonderful way is entirely ambiguous.
Original sin in babies etc is about potential not actuality. That all humans are born with the capacity to go non trivially wrong is well understood by everyone, religious or not.
How it is named in religious doctrine is hardly relevant. 'Original sin' is not a useful description in our world as we have lost the Aristotelian metaphysics in which it was once understood, so it doesn't make sense.
It just reinforces for me why I don't bet big money on politics. I'd have confidently said at the start of the campaign that the demise of the Tories had been hugely overstated (I still think this) and that a buy at 200 seats would be a good call (I no longer think this!)
I still find it incredible that the Tories might end up threatened by another party as the official opposition. I'm interested in which PBers think this is actually likely?
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
Play off between England and Australia today in Scotland's group. Given that the weather saved England against the mighty Scots probably favour them to win today but it may be tight.
Oh, and by the way, the Saffers are at it again. The first ball run out was just hilarious. Currently 16-4.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
OK but he got 73% in 2019. If he needs to rely on a stitch-up to hold his seat then Tories really are looking at an ELE
Williamson engineers a solution to stop Reform standing but one wonders why with such a large majority.
'Reform reckon' Nuff said
On this occasion, surely they are right? A defection too late for RefUK to come up with an alternative candidate is almost certainly planned.
I don't say that as a particular criticism of Williamson or the Tories - that's politics, ultimately, and RefUK obviously didn't vet their candidate very carefully. But the idea he just happened to have a Damascene conversion at the exact moment it was just too late to replce him is a little far-fetched.
After Sunak's disgraceful behaviour I have no idea how the conservatives deal with it but no matter, Farage being hailed as the Messiah of the right should worry anyone who believes in a fair society and democracy
He is Trump supporting, anti vax and net zero, and promotes division and discord
I notice @Roger dismisses him as virtually irrelevant but he is not.
The cameras are following him 24/7 and he is dominating the agenda so much I expect Labour supporters in the red wall may be attracted to his rhetoric, as any improvement for Reform can only come from them as he has converted as many conservatives as is likely
I do not know how this pans out and whether we will see tactical voting to try to dismiss his influence, but be not complacent, Farage as an MP will attrack a lot of attention and continue the disruption in our politics
OK but he got 73% in 2019. If he needs to rely on a stitch-up to hold his seat then Tories really are looking at an ELE
Williamson engineers a solution to stop Reform standing but one wonders why with such a large majority.
The 73% seat, South Staffs, doesn't exist anymore. It's been divided between Kingswinford and Stone. Gavin Williamson's new seat is still pretty safe but nothing like 73%. This tweeter should have checked that first.
OK but he got 73% in 2019. If he needs to rely on a stitch-up to hold his seat then Tories really are looking at an ELE
Williamson engineers a solution to stop Reform standing but one wonders why with such a large majority.
'Reform reckon' Nuff said
On this occasion, surely they are right? A defection too late for RefUK to come up with an alternative candidate is almost certainly planned.
I don't say that as a particular criticism of Williamson or the Tories - that's politics, ultimately, and RefUK obviously didn't vet their candidate very carefully. But the idea he just happened to have a Damascene conversion at the exact moment it was just too late to replce him is a little far-fetched.
That's a joke I assume. Reminds me of the BBC's 1987 election night forecast which was something like a range between Tories short by 20 and a majority of 100. David Dimbleby's first comment about it was "Is this poll really worth anything?"
Interesting to see how some PBers leapt to conclusion, that the assailant who attacked the Danish PM very recently, has been sentenced to just 12 day incarceration. Apparently without trial or any investigation as to motive or anything else.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
Interesting to see how some PBers leapt to conclusion, that the assailant who attacked the Danish PM very recently, has been sentenced to just 12 day incarceration. Apparently without trial or any investigation as to motive or anything else.
Yeah, right. Or rather, wrong. Obviously!
Because that’s what the Reuters report said in its headline
“Man who attacked Danish PM sentenced to 12 days in custody”
Indeed it still says that after being updated. Very misleading
“COPENHAGEN, June 8 (Reuters) - A 39-year old man who assaulted Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Copenhagen on Friday causing her to suffer a neck injury was sentenced on Saturday to 12 days in custody, Danish police said.”
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And, unbelievably, we are still at it. Still wanting "windfall taxes" discouraging investment and the creation of jobs. Still not thinking strategically in terms of what infrastructure is required to maximise the output of the new, smaller fields. If you want a study of UK economic incompetence its as good an example as any.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I power my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
Well that at least is credible. Labour's policy is just nuts.
However the disciminatory nature of taxation on the oil sector just means people wont invest. Some party needs to have policies to keep the sector alive. Who is going to do away with windfall taxes ?
The truth is that as the sector winds down the investment will need to involve government - CCS will play a big part. The Tories can't be trusted - despite having St Fergus here the money went to England - and Duguid praised Johnson for not investing here.
My dad was a long-term investor in energy stocks, my mum still owns shares in companies involved in the north sea. The future is not them - the sector is winding down as reserve depletes. But if we want to keep the sector and jobs and more investment we need to back renewables.
It won't happen, but assuming the Conservatives lose, is there a case for Sunak to stay on for a period? Tightly defined, but a period for the party to commission some serious research in to the whys of the election and for MPs to determine a coherent forward strategy prior to picking the next leader? Otherwise you may get very knee jerk reactions and the election of a new leader because they have a higher profile. I guess I am being idealistic 😁
On policy platform, a strong and effective leader brings the Centre of politics to them, it isn't a fixed point. I do worry that the coalition of views in the Conservatives is increasingly hard to sustain, but it must be if the party are to win again.
Ultimately we are all wierd political mixes. I think I would describe myself as liberal in the classical sense of fundamentally believing in free speech etc, socially I'm individually liberal but institutionally more conservative, economically I'm more interventionist, I have communitarian instincts, sceptical of any exclusive view the state or market are always right and I'm eurosceptic. I also strongly dislike over simplified political analysis and promises of easy solutions matched with at times cruel language use. But I also accept the limits of managerialism. Not sure what that makes me?!! 😄 I guess the closest to a coherent philosophy I've been attracted to is, as noted in the previous post, Nick Timothy's pamphlets through Onward.
This is essentially what Michael Howard did after the May 2005 defeat - announced that he'd be standing down at the end of the year.
In the meantime, he promoted the likely contenders - David Cameron got his first Shadow Cabinet role, George Osborne became Shadow Chancellor, Liam Fox became Shadow Foreign Sec (and David Davis remained as Shadow Home Sec). The party conference in October was gave a chance for them to be tested, and the future direction of the party was thoroughly debated.
The party owes Howard a debt for doing such a good job of managing defeat. So, yes, Sunak's best chance of salvaging his reputation might be to do something similar.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
You know they bulldoze ethnic minority ghettoes if they feel they are refusing to assimilate?
“How Denmark’s ‘ghetto list’ is ripping apart migrant communities Copenhagen and other cities are planning mass housing evictions in a ‘social experiment’ to encourage integration”
Interesting to see how some PBers leapt to conclusion, that the assailant who attacked the Danish PM very recently, has been sentenced to just 12 day incarceration. Apparently without trial or any investigation as to motive or anything else.
Yeah, right. Or rather, wrong. Obviously!
Because that’s what the Reuters report said in its headline
“Man who attacked Danish PM sentenced to 12 days in custody”
Indeed it still says that after being updated. Very misleading
The English speaking media, particularly that in the U.K., often don’t understand the detail of legal procedure in their own jurisdictions. Reporting on that of an overseas, Civil Law, jurisdiction and translating its proceedings into English is ripe for misinterpretation. It was rife when Assange was facing charges in Sweden. Accurate reporting required an understanding of Swedish criminal procedure and the Swedish language. The results were predictable.
Interesting to see how some PBers leapt to conclusion, that the assailant who attacked the Danish PM very recently, has been sentenced to just 12 day incarceration. Apparently without trial or any investigation as to motive or anything else.
Yeah, right. Or rather, wrong. Obviously!
Because that’s what the Reuters report said in its headline
“Man who attacked Danish PM sentenced to 12 days in custody”
Indeed it still says that after being updated. Very misleading
The English speaking media, particularly that in the U.K., often don’t understand the detail of legal procedure in their own jurisdictions. Reporting on that of an overseas, Civil Law, jurisdiction and translating its proceedings into English is ripe for misinterpretation. It was rife when Assange was facing charges in Sweden. Accurate reporting required an understanding of Swedish criminal procedure and the Swedish languages. The results were predictable.
That makes sense. This is a particularly egregious example. Sack that journalist
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
You know they bulldoze ethnic minority ghettoes if they feel they are refusing to assimilate?
“How Denmark’s ‘ghetto list’ is ripping apart migrant communities Copenhagen and other cities are planning mass housing evictions in a ‘social experiment’ to encourage integration”
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
You know they bulldoze ethnic minority ghettoes if they feel they are refusing to assimilate?
“How Denmark’s ‘ghetto list’ is ripping apart migrant communities Copenhagen and other cities are planning mass housing evictions in a ‘social experiment’ to encourage integration”
Some PBers apparently believe anything they read? Bad policy, esp. on PB.
Am NOT claiming superior insight, let alone moral (or immoral) high ground.
But I did think, that doesn't make sense. Reuters or no Reuters. Especially as unclear to incoherent "English" is become a staple of international journalism.
Now back at my computer. I hadn't been out properly before today - we'd done social media but not pressing the flesh. It is extraordinary, like nothing I have sensed since 1997, the level of anger.
Tory last time voters volunteering up the defenestration of David Duguid and our Normandy shame. A country adrift. SNP last time voters raising the terrible state of public services and wondering why Flynn is boasting about it in debates.
And I met the SNP candidate! Handshake and a photo together. Even he thinks I can come second (with a laugh, but he's serious).
What does it mean? Governing parties are in for a beating, and for the Tories I fear it may be terminal. I don't get any sense of the SNP benefiting from not being Tory - I canvassed adjacent doors to the SNP for a few minutes and they were told to go away and I was listened to. And thats in Strichen - where Alex Salmond lives.
In England? Reform are going to monster the Tories in red wall type seats, the LibDems and Labour everywhere else. Forget crossover, I think the Tories aren't going to be the official opposition.
I need to have a think about how I can craft the next round of social media stuff, but I think I stand a much better chance this weekend than I did last weekend...
I want to know your view on North Sea oil. I will probably be working in Aberdeen second half of this year. Labour want to shut the whole industry down what's the LibDem position ?
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
We want to keep the NE at the heart of the energy sector for decades to come. Oil and gas are absolutely at the heart of that, but we need a just transition into renewables to keep up there. What is a "just" transition? Not trying to turn the taps off as the SNP tried to do. Not going against renewables as the Tories tried to do.
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
a reminder of what a windfall tax can do to North Sea revenues:
A reminder that Norway has been much more consistent in taxing its petroleum industry and has therefore succeeded in generating more taxation and more production.
And what a fantastic country it is in which to live or dwell.
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
You know they bulldoze ethnic minority ghettoes if they feel they are refusing to assimilate?
“How Denmark’s ‘ghetto list’ is ripping apart migrant communities Copenhagen and other cities are planning mass housing evictions in a ‘social experiment’ to encourage integration”
Comments
I'm not looking forward to having to put a pile of decent people out of work.
Is it time for a Liz renaissance?
TRUSS
Is there any evidence on the ground that this is creating a differential voting impact compared with comparable constituencies?
https://x.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1799475719585546509
This was utter drivel.
On policy platform, a strong and effective leader brings the Centre of politics to them, it isn't a fixed point. I do worry that the coalition of views in the Conservatives is increasingly hard to sustain, but it must be if the party are to win again.
Ultimately we are all wierd political mixes. I think I would describe myself as liberal in the classical sense of fundamentally believing in free speech etc, socially I'm individually liberal but institutionally more conservative, economically I'm more interventionist, I have communitarian instincts, sceptical of any exclusive view the state or market are always right and I'm eurosceptic. I also strongly dislike over simplified political analysis and promises of easy solutions matched with at times cruel language use. But I also accept the limits of managerialism. Not sure what that makes me?!! 😄 I guess the closest to a coherent philosophy I've been attracted to is, as noted in the previous post, Nick Timothy's pamphlets through Onward.
I know Denmark is famously laid back, I’ve seen Borgen, but still. That’s a bit too laid back
Maybe you are right and the reporting is wrong
Dear Horse Bat. Stop lying about my voting record. This ain’t a game. This is serious.
I’ve never said I’ve voted Labour. I said I have voted Libdem, and for a man with a bin on his head. All that we can put down to rebellious youthfulness. I’ve only ever posted that I will never in my life vote Labour.
It’s perfectly okay for dissatisfied Tories to vote Lib Dem, because Lib Dem’s are very much centre right. Con, Ref, Libdem are right of centre parties. All the left agree on is the individual and the state, the parties of the right understand it’s families and neighbourhoods, and protecting our shared cultural inheritances that is the foundation of society, and not the state.
The right cuts down Labours bulbous state and ruinous state spending, and by doing so boosts families, household incomes, aspiration, and individual freedom.
Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action. If we don’t get Conservatives back in government soon, the country will fall apart.
None of this is game playing, Horse Bat, like you refer to it with your child like level of political understanding.
250 seats and a hung Parliament, defo.
27 seats and fourth place, probably not.
If you try to measure it by asking questions on voter intent in non-target constituencies (akin to canvassing) you influence the system. It's a bit like quantum uncertainty.
Had a roaring time in Wokingham this morning.
Let's make this Conservative Government history 🦖
Its both. I heat my house by oil remember, and make YouTube videos about my electric car. Just transition means that you can have both and convert dying gas fields into CCS and migrate jobs into the bonanza that is wind.
I am really pleased one of the parties is highlighting this.
Well done Ed.
For one thing, the O of D made sure to make it's answers as cryptic as possible with maximum possible interpretations.
Much like impending UK 2024 GE party manifestos?
Does anyone know when the first one is due?
Soz but like I said, I'm not wasting any more breath on serial loser Farage
However the disciminatory nature of taxation on the oil sector just means people wont invest. Some party needs to have policies to keep the sector alive. Who is going to do away with windfall taxes ?
https://politiken.dk/danmark/art9935850/Varetægtsfængslet-for-overfald-på-statsministeren-var-fuld-og-psykisk-uligevægtig
New exhibit arriving after 4 July: The Conservative Party
Or how about https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/urinating-rainbow-statues
or for Noom value - https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/one-street-museum-death-mask-collection
No point looking at me. I can't vote Tory for medical reasons.
How it is named in religious doctrine is hardly relevant. 'Original sin' is not a useful description in our world as we have lost the Aristotelian metaphysics in which it was once understood, so it doesn't make sense.
It just reinforces for me why I don't bet big money on politics. I'd have confidently said at the start of the campaign that the demise of the Tories had been hugely overstated (I still think this) and that a buy at 200 seats would be a good call (I no longer think this!)
I still find it incredible that the Tories might end up threatened by another party as the official opposition. I'm interested in which PBers think this is actually likely?
OK but he got 73% in 2019. If he needs to rely on a stitch-up to hold his seat then Tories really are looking at an ELE
Williamson engineers a solution to stop Reform standing but one wonders why with such a large majority.
Oh, and by the way, the Saffers are at it again. The first ball run out was just hilarious. Currently 16-4.
I don't say that as a particular criticism of Williamson or the Tories - that's politics, ultimately, and RefUK obviously didn't vet their candidate very carefully. But the idea he just happened to have a Damascene conversion at the exact moment it was just too late to replce him is a little far-fetched.
After Sunak's disgraceful behaviour I have no idea how the conservatives deal with it but no matter, Farage being hailed as the Messiah of the right should worry anyone who believes in a fair society and democracy
He is Trump supporting, anti vax and net zero, and promotes division and discord
I notice @Roger dismisses him as virtually irrelevant but he is not.
The cameras are following him 24/7 and he is dominating the agenda so much I expect Labour supporters in the red wall may be attracted to his rhetoric, as any improvement for Reform can only come from them as he has converted as many conservatives as is likely
I do not know how this pans out and whether we will see tactical voting to try to dismiss his influence, but be not complacent, Farage as an MP will attrack a lot of attention and continue the disruption in our politics
Yeah, right. Or rather, wrong. Obviously!
Amongst the happiest people on earth, in the top two (the other being Finland)
“Man who attacked Danish PM sentenced to 12 days in custody”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/suspect-face-preliminary-questioning-after-assault-danish-pm-frederiksen-2024-06-08/
Indeed it still says that after being updated. Very misleading
“COPENHAGEN, June 8 (Reuters) - A 39-year old man who assaulted Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Copenhagen on Friday causing her to suffer a neck injury was sentenced on Saturday to 12 days in custody, Danish police said.”
Whatever gets you through the election, I guess.
Getting one: Gavin Williamson.
My dad was a long-term investor in energy stocks, my mum still owns shares in companies involved in the north sea. The future is not them - the sector is winding down as reserve depletes. But if we want to keep the sector and jobs and more investment we need to back renewables.
In the meantime, he promoted the likely contenders - David Cameron got his first Shadow Cabinet role, George Osborne became Shadow Chancellor, Liam Fox became Shadow Foreign Sec (and David Davis remained as Shadow Home Sec). The party conference in October was gave a chance for them to be tested, and the future direction of the party was thoroughly debated.
The party owes Howard a debt for doing such a good job of managing defeat. So, yes, Sunak's best chance of salvaging his reputation might be to do something similar.
Getting one: Michael Fabricant.
“How Denmark’s ‘ghetto list’ is ripping apart migrant communities
Copenhagen and other cities are planning mass housing evictions in a ‘social experiment’ to encourage integration”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/how-denmarks-ghetto-list-is-ripping-apart-migrant-communities
We heard similar arguments in 2015, Sir John Curtice and his team know what they are doing.
I think it's fair to say they've got a big Head about their plans.
Am NOT claiming superior insight, let alone moral (or immoral) high ground.
But I did think, that doesn't make sense. Reuters or no Reuters. Especially as unclear to incoherent "English" is become a staple of international journalism.
Jeez Kyiv is no looker
I'm very confident in my prediction.