Not much sign of crossover from the latest We Think poll conducted yesterday and Thursday which still has the Tories on 20% ahead of Reform on 15% even if Labour well ahead overall on 45%.
Reform also lack the geographic concentration their Canadian counterparts had in 1993 in western Canada which enabled them to pick up lots of seats there.
Most voters in the blue wall and elsewhere know that public services are shot to pieces and tax cuts are not affordable or appropriate at this point imo.
Most voters in the blue wall who voted Tory last time have expensive houses they want to keep in the family and children, often nearby who want to inherit them without a big IHT bill. Some will also use private schools and private health rather than public services (though of course since 2019 the Tories have put vast sums into the NHS too). They might even win over a few 2019 LDs too who voted for Cameron and May with big houses now Brexit is less of an issue and Boris is gone
What they want and what the country can afford are not the same thing.
I understand that the Lib Dems are targetting a selcted number of constituencies.
Is there any evidence on the ground that this is creating a differential voting impact compared with comparable constituencies?
Don't know, Nicky, but they do not appear to be short of resources in Tewkesbury, which is 88th on their target list.
It may help that it neighbours Cheltenham, which the LDs will win, and Cotswold South which they might do. They did well in the locals, so it's maybe more reachable than you might think, but it is still a 20k majority.
If it does go, they are having a very good night.
And the Conservatives are likely well under 150 seats, which seems possible if things remain as they are.
It just reinforces for me why I don't bet big money on politics. I'd have confidently said at the start of the campaign that the demise of the Tories had been hugely overstated (I still think this) and that a buy at 200 seats would be a good call (I no longer think this!)
I still find it incredible that the Tories might end up threatened by another party as the official opposition. I'm interested in which PBers think this is actually likely?
Likely? No, Max. Possible? Definitely. I'd make it about a 4/1 chance.
Btw, when the spreads opened, Tory seats were at 164-172. The consensus here was it was about right but probably a buy rather than a sell. It is now 111-119, and a probable sell if you can stomach the risk.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
Why does anyone post any links on here? A: to share news, opinion, information, gossip, jokes...
I cannot imagine why you are so sore about Battery posting this?
Because Moon is annoyed their "actually the Tories are doing great" rubbish has failed.
She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem, then she had a Damascene conversion to being a Tory and then spent the last two weeks telling us Rishi is actually good and the public will produce a Tory victory.
Her judgement is a joke and she's been found out. That's why she's going off on one.
“She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem”
Dear Horse Bat. Stop lying about my voting record. This ain’t a game. This is serious.
I’ve never said I’ve voted Labour. I said I have voted Libdem, and for a man with a bin on his head. All that we can put down to rebellious youthfulness. I’ve only ever posted that I will never in my life vote Labour.
It’s perfectly okay for dissatisfied Tories to vote Lib Dem, because Lib Dem’s are very much centre right. Con, Ref, Libdem are right of centre parties. All the left agree on is the individual and the state, the parties of the right understand it’s families and neighbourhoods, and protecting our shared cultural inheritances that is the foundation of society, and not the state.
The right cuts down Labours bulbous state and ruinous state spending, and by doing so boosts families, household incomes, aspiration, and individual freedom.
Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action. If we don’t get Conservatives back in government soon, the country will fall apart.
None of this is game playing, Horse Bat, like you refer to it with your child like level of political understanding.
"ChatGPT, write some drivel about politics"
Not just you customary ungentlemanly rudeness stands out, but your complete inability to discuss the real politics behind all this, makes it oh so clear you don’t actually understand the philosophical make up of British Politics, do you?
Labours tax on our junk food meals and take away deliveries is an absolute disgrace, by the way. Do you defend Labours tax on our whoppers, Horse Bat? Or can you at least condemn the worst Labour tax grab of them all?
I can see why the Tories are against whoppers being taxed to be fair.
It’s a Wedge issue… hands off our our lightly spiced wedgies!
We won’t pay the burger tax, we won’t pay the burger tax. Ala la laa
Er. Wasn't the Junk Food Tax / Reformulation Tax part of the National Food Strategy that was commission by... er, Michael Gove in 2019?
Yes, Truss dumped it and Sunak's since turned it into a culture war talking point. And now it's just another example of the Tory 2024 election campaign rubbishing everything they were elected on in 2019. I'm not sure it's going to end very well for them...
We are over taxed as it is, last thing we need is Labours hated Pizza Tax.
VAT on to Eat out, under Labour.
(stop sniggering at the back, PB)
But the Reformulation Tax was designed to be broadly revenue neutral - the idea was to encourage fast food restaurants to change their recipes to reduce sugar and salt content where possible.
It wasn't designed to raise money, although it would very probably have reduced NHS costs in the long term.
The NFS recommendations are worth a read - it's unfortunate that they got caught up in the Tory infighting. I suppose you can count it as another of those Gove "great idea, but no follow through" episodes.
There's an interesting article in Science's answer to the Beano this week about adding Potassium to salt to fix the hypertension problem
Isn't that what Lo-Salt and the like have been doing forever - a 50/50 mix of KCl and NaCl?
Yes. But I think the idea is to legislate that all salt has to be Potassium/Sodium. Like adding iodine fixed the thyroid/goitre problem.
Ah, fair enough. Hard to see how it would be introduced without causing a vast rumpus - look at how many recipes specify Kosher salt to avoid the iodine, even though we don't have iodised salt in the UK.
I could see people switching to dishwasher salt in order to avoid the woke potassium!
Not much sign of crossover from the latest We Think poll conducted yesterday and Thursday which still has the Tories on 20% ahead of Reform on 15% even if Labour well ahead overall on 45%.
Reform also lack the geographic concentration their Canadian counterparts had in 1993 in western Canada which enabled them to pick up lots of seats there.
Most voters in the blue wall and elsewhere know that public services are shot to pieces and tax cuts are not affordable or appropriate at this point imo.
Most voters in the blue wall who voted Tory last time have expensive houses they want to keep in the family and children, often nearby who want to inherit them without a big IHT bill. Some will also use private schools and private health rather than public services (though of course since 2019 the Tories have put vast sums into the NHS too). They might even win over a few 2019 LDs too who voted for Cameron and May with big houses now Brexit is less of an issue and Boris is gone
What they want and what the country can afford are not the same thing.
And yet the Triple Lock endures, for example.
We know that both the Tories and Labour are selling budgetary fantasies to the electorate. Will Labour go after assets, wages, or implement cuts when they run out of money? That's the great unknowable. It depends greatly on whether or not they have the testicular fortitude to piss off the right people for a change.
Savanta and MoreinCommon look to be the ones out of kilter with the rest to me.
Yes, I haven't been following pollsters like Whitstone and Techne, as these are relatively new to me, and I also haven't seen the BMG and Redfield and Wilton ones..
Are some of the newer entrants to the polling market possibly using a more similar methodology to YouGov, on the previously politically committed Don't Knows,, that people have been mentioning ?
Not much sign of crossover from the latest We Think poll conducted yesterday and Thursday which still has the Tories on 20% ahead of Reform on 15% even if Labour well ahead overall on 45%.
Reform also lack the geographic concentration their Canadian counterparts had in 1993 in western Canada which enabled them to pick up lots of seats there.
Most voters in the blue wall and elsewhere know that public services are shot to pieces and tax cuts are not affordable or appropriate at this point imo.
Most voters in the blue wall who voted Tory last time have expensive houses they want to keep in the family and children, often nearby who want to inherit them without a big IHT bill. Some will also use private schools and private health rather than public services (though of course since 2019 the Tories have put vast sums into the NHS too). They might even win over a few 2019 LDs too who voted for Cameron and May with big houses now Brexit is less of an issue and Boris is gone
What they want and what the country can afford are not the same thing.
And yet the Triple Lock endures, for example.
We know that both the Tories and Labour are selling budgetary fantasies to the electorate. Will Labour go after assets, wages, or implement cuts when they run out of money? That's the great unknowable. It depends greatly on whether or not they have the testicular fortitude to piss off the right people for a change.
Both parties are too afraid to ask the electorate to make hard choices about the future direction of the country
Based on the downloadable csv file from your link, RefUK is boycotting Sheffield. No Reform candidate is listed in:-
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney 2 Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven 3 Bristol East 4 Cambridge 5 Cheltenham 6 Chorley 7 Doncaster North 8 Earley and Woodley 9 East Grinstead and Uckfield 10 Epping Forest 11 Hexham 12 Leeds South 13 Maidenhead 14 Mid Dorset and North Poole 15 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 16 Oxford East 17 Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough 18 Sheffield Central 19 Sheffield Hallam 20 Sheffield Heeley 21 Sheffield South East 22 West Dorset
Any poll showing CON 25+ is good for them at the moment. Maybe MAYBE a chance to move to late 20s by the end
At this point, we remember once again that Con has never polled sub-30% at a GE in their whole history. They scrape that, then it's 1997 redux rather than ELE, and they live to fight another day.
OTOH Sunak is a vastly inferior politician than Major, starting from a much worse position, of course.
Via @Savanta_UK , 5-7 Jun. Changes w/ 31 May - 2 Jun.
Sunak would take that I expect, Tories over double the level of Reform despite his disastrous week (apart from the debate) and also ahead of the LDs on seats too.
Let’s not lose sight, it was a pollster giving Tories 28% on 2nd June and 14% gap to Labour, but on 8th June Tories down 2, Ref up 2, Labour up 4 (!) 20 point lead highest since January.
Other pollsters (who tend towards much less kind to the Conservatives) are available.
PS. The debate was a Tory disaster too, the debate polls showed, despite/because of Sunak lying the Tory campaign into a ditch just to get through it.
Savanta and MoreinCommon look to be the ones out of kilter with the rest to me.
Yes, I haven't been following pollsters like Whitstone and Techne, as these are relatively new to me.
Are they possibly using a more similar methodology to YouGov on previously, politically committed Don't Knows ?
This might help. Whitestone treat don't knows like Savanta and MoreinCommon, Techne treat them like Yougov, Survation, R&W etc.. Hard to discern a correlation with Reform numbers.
Yougov are either going to hugely bolster, or partially mess up, their "first among equals" reputation, in this election.
Why do they think Reform are doing so much better, than others ? Is that because of their treatment of "Don't Knows" who lean Tory ?
They seem to over-sample politically engaged voters.
I wonder if in my lifetime we’ll ever get a reliably accurate pollster. Surely that’s something AI could master.
Reminds me of the old Asimov multivac story, where computer prediction of election results becomes so perfect that they move to a system where the computer selects a single Voter, asks them a battery of questions like what they think of the price of cheese and whether they've ever been to Carlisle, cogitates a while, and then produces the results for the whole country. Much cheaper and more reliable than organising for everybody in the whole country to actually vote, they say...
Any poll showing CON 25+ is good for them at the moment. Maybe MAYBE a chance to move to late 20s by the end
At this point, we remember once again that Con has never polled sub-30% at a GE in their whole history. They scrape that, then it's 1997 redux rather than ELE, and they live to fight another day.
OTOH Sunak is a vastly inferior politician than Major, starting from a much worse position, of course.
Based on the downloadable csv file from your link, RefUK is boycotting Sheffield.
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
WTF? They were second in 2019 in the predecessor seat and it has a history of kicking established parties. Why would they not stand there? They won't have a better chance at any seat in Wales.
Any poll showing CON 25+ is good for them at the moment. Maybe MAYBE a chance to move to late 20s by the end
At this point, we remember once again that Con has never polled sub-30% at a GE in their whole history. They scrape that, then it's 1997 redux rather than ELE, and they live to fight another day.
OTOH Sunak is a vastly inferior politician than Major, starting from a much worse position, of course.
He starts from a better position than Major 1997. He has a majority, for a start.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
Any poll showing CON 25+ is good for them at the moment. Maybe MAYBE a chance to move to late 20s by the end
At this point, we remember once again that Con has never polled sub-30% at a GE in their whole history. They scrape that, then it's 1997 redux rather than ELE, and they live to fight another day.
OTOH Sunak is a vastly inferior politician than Major, starting from a much worse position, of course.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
Not much sign of crossover from the latest We Think poll conducted yesterday and Thursday which still has the Tories on 20% ahead of Reform on 15% even if Labour well ahead overall on 45%.
Reform also lack the geographic concentration their Canadian counterparts had in 1993 in western Canada which enabled them to pick up lots of seats there.
Most voters in the blue wall and elsewhere know that public services are shot to pieces and tax cuts are not affordable or appropriate at this point imo.
Most voters in the blue wall who voted Tory last time have expensive houses they want to keep in the family and children, often nearby who want to inherit them without a big IHT bill. Some will also use private schools and private health rather than public services (though of course since 2019 the Tories have put vast sums into the NHS too). They might even win over a few 2019 LDs too who voted for Cameron and May with big houses now Brexit is less of an issue and Boris is gone
What they want and what the country can afford are not the same thing.
And yet the Triple Lock endures, for example.
We know that both the Tories and Labour are selling budgetary fantasies to the electorate. Will Labour go after assets, wages, or implement cuts when they run out of money? That's the great unknowable. It depends greatly on whether or not they have the testicular fortitude to piss off the right people for a change.
And the Tories are now faced with a potential fight against Refuk, who have no incentive whatsoever to restrict themselves to economic reality.
If the Tories promise a £2m IHT threshold why wouldn't Refuk turn round and offer to raise it to £5m and halve the rate to 20%?
I know that HYUFD wishes that it were otherwise, but this would be a stupid race for the Tories to get themselves into. Refuk will outbid them, and Labour will paint them as irresponsible Trussite fantasists.
Not much sign of crossover from the latest We Think poll conducted yesterday and Thursday which still has the Tories on 20% ahead of Reform on 15% even if Labour well ahead overall on 45%.
Reform also lack the geographic concentration their Canadian counterparts had in 1993 in western Canada which enabled them to pick up lots of seats there.
Most voters in the blue wall and elsewhere know that public services are shot to pieces and tax cuts are not affordable or appropriate at this point imo.
Most voters in the blue wall who voted Tory last time have expensive houses they want to keep in the family and children, often nearby who want to inherit them without a big IHT bill. Some will also use private schools and private health rather than public services (though of course since 2019 the Tories have put vast sums into the NHS too). They might even win over a few 2019 LDs too who voted for Cameron and May with big houses now Brexit is less of an issue and Boris is gone
What they want and what the country can afford are not the same thing.
And yet the Triple Lock endures, for example.
We know that both the Tories and Labour are selling budgetary fantasies to the electorate. Will Labour go after assets, wages, or implement cuts when they run out of money? That's the great unknowable. It depends greatly on whether or not they have the testicular fortitude to piss off the right people for a change.
Both parties are too afraid to ask the electorate to make hard choices about the future direction of the country
Of course they are, because the electorate is mostly cakeist and will punish them for it. Our leaders aren't very good but it's not all their fault.
Best we can hope for from Reeves is that she uses the "we've now seen the books and things are even worse than we thought" excuse and, given the strong manifesto commitments over income tax and national insurance, uses this as a pretext to go after assets - hiking CGT and, if she's feeling property bold, going after houses.
But we're not going to get anything apart from the chicken feed tax rises already announced and these cloud cuckoo fantasies about rampant economic growth this side of polling day, I agree.
Based on the downloadable csv file from your link, RefUK is boycotting Sheffield.
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
WTF? They were second in 2019 in the predecessor seat and it has a history of kicking established parties. Why would they not stand there? They won't have a better chance at any seat in Wales.
They have a pact with the SDP and I think that covers a few seats in Yorkshire.
Based on the downloadable csv file from your link, RefUK is boycotting Sheffield.
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
WTF? They were second in 2019 in the predecessor seat and it has a history of kicking established parties. Why would they not stand there? They won't have a better chance at any seat in Wales.
Based on the downloadable csv file from your link, RefUK is boycotting Sheffield.
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
WTF? They were second in 2019 in the predecessor seat and it has a history of kicking established parties. Why would they not stand there? They won't have a better chance at any seat in Wales.
Any poll showing CON 25+ is good for them at the moment. Maybe MAYBE a chance to move to late 20s by the end
That’s “good”? Surely “good” is still being in government after the election, anything else being “bad”.
I don't think any cheerleader for the Conservatives has seen any route to them staying in power. The best they could hope for is a Labour minority that quickly breaks up in acrimony, with a second election after they have their next leader in place.
More than MOE fall for Labour tho. What if they dip below 40? This is getting SLIGHTLY interesting
The last 5 Opiniums have been:
45% 41% 43% 40% 41%
Tonight’s 42% is all part of MOE
No. With modern sampling techniques, and sample sizes, you’re almost certainly seeing movement in that time series, albeit up and then down again. It’s not MOE noise.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
(Long-time lurker popping back for an election-time appearance.. greetings )
Strikes me that, quite apart from tilting the left-right balance, BoJo's purge of remainers before the 2019 election has left a deficit of pure and simple competence, relative to the current crop.
A whole generation of middle-ranking, maybe unremarkable at the time, ministers and MPs left the Commons after losing the whip.
Some of them would have shone in the past 4.5 years, tacking gently to the right a la Mordaunt and leaving Brexit behind as a do-or-die issue, to bring in enough proto-Reformers. The Hammonds, Gaukes, Grieves, Greenings etc.
Given the discussion here about the dearth of talent to succeed Sunak, it feels like that clear-out will come to be seen as a defining moment in creating the Tories' current and future survival-level struggles.
☝️ this person gets it
I think this analysis skips over the previous extinction level event that the tories had in the European elections in 2019. It was Johnson that saved the party and the purge of 'centrists/moderates' followed that. But after Dominic Cummings left government, there has been no strategy. There was a brief episode when the tories went 'woke', followed by madness, confusion, drift, and a vaguely convincing attempt to restore the 'sanity' and 'stability' of the coalition years. The drift in strategic direction cannot be overcome by competent politicians. People like Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Alex Chalk are highly competent, but politically the project had no credibility or direction. Nothing could be solved by bringing back people like Dominic Grieve or Rory Stewart.
No. The European elections were always a good target for protest votes and even in 2014 the Tories came third and got 23% of the vote. They won a majority at the general election less than a year later, under the same leader.
It’s kinda my point that in saving the party’s “purity”, Johnson may have caused it bigger problems down the road. If he (and Sunak) had been surrounded by some of those who he kicked out, instead of political and organisational goliaths like Lee Anderson and Jonathan Gullis, they would not be in this mess.
Had they created a genuinely exciting levelling-up story to tell and built 40 new hospitals - all perfectly Gaukite BJ policies - the red wall would very much still be in play.
But another three PMs later, no continuity, no focus on delivery (and I concede, strong external headwinds), they have nothing to boast about on the left or right. Forgiving Philip Hammond and having him instead of Kwarteng, or Ed Vaizey knowing that Channel 4 is publicly-owned but self funding (unlike Dorries), might have just made some of the bumps of the past 5 years a bit less bumpy.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
By “internal shenanigans” I meant altering, somehow, that document. A decent lawyer would also (probably vainly) argue that Cameron is amongst “those elected to the House of Commons”. It specially doesn’t say “members of the House of Commons”. But this is angels on heads of pins stuff. It ain’t gonna happen.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
He could be PM in an emergency, but not party leader.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
How will they manage that if Sandpit loses his bet?
More than MOE fall for Labour tho. What if they dip below 40? This is getting SLIGHTLY interesting
The last 5 Opiniums have been:
45% 41% 43% 40% 41%
Tonight’s 42% is all part of MOE
No. With modern sampling techniques, and sample sizes, you’re almost certainly seeing movement in that time series, albeit up and then down again. It’s not MOE noise.
Ok. But the last five polls averaged exactly 42% and tonight’s poll had them at, err, ... 42%
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
So right now, nobody can become Conservative leader?
So if Rishi somehow vanished, they would become a leaderless rabble?
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
He was elected to the HoC. I mean, not recently, but he was.
Based on the downloadable csv file from your link, RefUK is boycotting Sheffield.
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
WTF? They were second in 2019 in the predecessor seat and it has a history of kicking established parties. Why would they not stand there? They won't have a better chance at any seat in Wales.
If they're not vetting candidates for that seat properly, prepare for one scandal after another.
It will be like OFSTED under Spielman on crack.
It was reported that Rishi called the election early to catch RefUK off-guard because it did not have approved candidates in place. If that was the plan, it worked. Trouble is, his own party was equally discombobulated.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
Not much sign of crossover from the latest We Think poll conducted yesterday and Thursday which still has the Tories on 20% ahead of Reform on 15% even if Labour well ahead overall on 45%.
Reform also lack the geographic concentration their Canadian counterparts had in 1993 in western Canada which enabled them to pick up lots of seats there.
Most voters in the blue wall and elsewhere know that public services are shot to pieces and tax cuts are not affordable or appropriate at this point imo.
Most voters in the blue wall who voted Tory last time have expensive houses they want to keep in the family and children, often nearby who want to inherit them without a big IHT bill. Some will also use private schools and private health rather than public services (though of course since 2019 the Tories have put vast sums into the NHS too). They might even win over a few 2019 LDs too who voted for Cameron and May with big houses now Brexit is less of an issue and Boris is gone
What they want and what the country can afford are not the same thing.
And yet the Triple Lock endures, for example.
We know that both the Tories and Labour are selling budgetary fantasies to the electorate. Will Labour go after assets, wages, or implement cuts when they run out of money? That's the great unknowable. It depends greatly on whether or not they have the testicular fortitude to piss off the right people for a change.
And the Tories are now faced with a potential fight against Refuk, who have no incentive whatsoever to restrict themselves to economic reality.
If the Tories promise a £2m IHT threshold why wouldn't Refuk turn round and offer to raise it to £5m and halve the rate to 20%?
I know that HYUFD wishes that it were otherwise, but this would be a stupid race for the Tories to get themselves into. Refuk will outbid them, and Labour will paint them as irresponsible Trussite fantasists.
IHT no longer affects most people, so raises a lot less than it could or should. The sum raised is still consequential, but the Tories can therefore get away with promising abolition if they can work out a halfway plausible way to pay for it, most likely by finding some working age benefits that they can freeze or cut.
The kind of voter they're trying to win back thinks that anyone who isn't them (i.e. pensionable) and claims social security is a scrounger anyway, so they will approve - and one thing about knowing that you are beaten is knowing that you don't have to implement such a promise, either. The Tories can't afford to be quite so divorced from reality as Reform, if they want to retain some credibility as a plausible main opposition force, but it does give them latitude to give their core support more stuff to wank over.
Some polls say the Tories are 12 points ahead of ReFuk, others say they're tied. Clear as mud.
They are closest with Redfield and YouGov followed by Techne and WeThink YouGov are the friendliest generally to reform and have been all along. What Redfield and Techne have in common is they both consistently show Tories losing the over 65 to Lab by 10 points or so......
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
How will they manage that if Sandpit loses his bet?
They could leave the party leadership vacant. Has happened before, most recently from 1911 to 1922, albeit that was before the title of 'party leader' officially existed.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
You’re the Tory member advocating this. How does it happen?
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
It won’t happen, if course, but if the Tory Party wanted Cameron it could have him.
Sunak stays PM until election day but otherwise it’s hard to pick a new PM absent Parliament. Cameron leads the campaign, and the party, that rule being changed easily (clubs make their own rules). If a miracle then happens c Cameron becomes PM from the Lords, but presumably stands in a swiftly vacated safe seat.
The other caution I would have on these two most recent polls is that most ( or in fact maybe all ? ) the fieldwork seems to have been done before yesterday PM, and earlier today, when the D-day disaster really led the news.
Still, maybe we've been slightly overstating the extent to which Reform are rising on here, nonetheless.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
It won’t happen, if course, but if the Tory Party wanted Cameron it could have him.
Sunak stays PM until election day but otherwise it’s hard to pick a new PM absent Parliament. Cameron leads the campaign, and the party, that rule being changed easily (clubs make their own rules). If a miracle then happens c Cameron becomes PM from the Lords, but presumably stands in a swiftly vacated safe seat.
What's the mechanism for renouncing a life peerage? Is there one?
More than MOE fall for Labour tho. What if they dip below 40? This is getting SLIGHTLY interesting
The last 5 Opiniums have been:
45% 41% 43% 40% 41%
Tonight’s 42% is all part of MOE
No. With modern sampling techniques, and sample sizes, you’re almost certainly seeing movement in that time series, albeit up and then down again. It’s not MOE noise.
Ok. But the last five polls averaged exactly 42% and tonight’s poll had them at, err, ... 42%
!
That’s a different argument than talking about MOE.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
Based on the downloadable csv file from your link, RefUK is boycotting Sheffield. No Reform candidate is listed in:-
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney 2 Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven 3 Bristol East 4 Cambridge 5 Cheltenham 6 Chorley 7 Doncaster North 8 Earley and Woodley 9 East Grinstead and Uckfield 10 Epping Forest 11 Hexham 12 Leeds South 13 Maidenhead 14 Mid Dorset and North Poole 15 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 16 Oxford East 17 Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough 18 Sheffield Central 19 Sheffield Hallam 20 Sheffield Heeley 21 Sheffield South East 22 West Dorset
Survation and BMG aside he's been worth 1 to 3 points to them (thus far)
It's MoE stuff. I'll be astonished if Reform poll anything like into the mid-high teens.
But, the D-Day screw up is likely to be far more damaging and perhaps hasn't fully fed through yet.
Opinion poll dangerous but I suggest will have faded from memory by July 4th amongst core voters. The reality of a GE will focus minds. Might also effect Best PM polling more than VI. Of course if short term anger tips crossover that might self reinforce
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
Does CR realise that being leader of the Tories and PM are, technically, two separate roles?
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
It won’t happen, if course, but if the Tory Party wanted Cameron it could have him.
Sunak stays PM until election day but otherwise it’s hard to pick a new PM absent Parliament. Cameron leads the campaign, and the party, that rule being changed easily (clubs make their own rules). If a miracle then happens c Cameron becomes PM from the Lords, but presumably stands in a swiftly vacated safe seat.
What's the mechanism for renouncing a life peerage? Is there one?
Survation and BMG aside he's been worth 1 to 3 points to them (thus far)
It can simultaneously be true that he’s an electoral asset, but that there’s currently a hard ceiling to Reform support (and it’s a lower one than when fighting for Brexit). That may be 20ish, which is high enough to severely damage the Tories without ever troubling the Commons seating plan.
Which is probably why the theory persists that he fancies himself as next-but-one Tory leader.
Based on the downloadable csv file from your link, RefUK is boycotting Sheffield.
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
WTF? They were second in 2019 in the predecessor seat and it has a history of kicking established parties. Why would they not stand there? They won't have a better chance at any seat in Wales.
If they're not vetting candidates for that seat properly, prepare for one scandal after another.
It will be like OFSTED under Spielman on crack.
I very much doubt they have the resources to vet hundreds of candidates. That plus the likely calibre and views of the people they're liable to attract was always bound to result in trouble.
More than MOE fall for Labour tho. What if they dip below 40? This is getting SLIGHTLY interesting
The last 5 Opiniums have been:
45% 41% 43% 40% 41%
Tonight’s 42% is all part of MOE
All polls are showing that Reform - or someone - has dented Labour’s VI. Of course their lead is so enormous it doesn’t matter - yet
But nonetheless cause for modest concern, I’d say. If it continues eroding at this rate Labour could end up in the mid 30s
Ah the Leondamus sees and speaks. The Great Predictor who doesn’t even know the difference between Norway and Denmark.
Finally, some respect. For i am He. The LEONDAMUS. And verily I say: there floweth a river in Kyiv, and it is mighty, e’en though thou never heardst of it, for some reasoneth, honestly, what are thee like, call thyself a travel scribe
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
It won’t happen, if course, but if the Tory Party wanted Cameron it could have him.
Sunak stays PM until election day but otherwise it’s hard to pick a new PM absent Parliament. Cameron leads the campaign, and the party, that rule being changed easily (clubs make their own rules). If a miracle then happens c Cameron becomes PM from the Lords, but presumably stands in a swiftly vacated safe seat.
What's the mechanism for renouncing a life peerage? Is there one?
Same as the other route, I think.
Hmmmm.
The Institute for Government doesn't agree.
Peerages are held until a person’s death, but the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 allows peers to resign as sitting members. To do this, they must give written notice to the clerk of the parliaments – the most senior impartial official in the Lords. Resignations cannot be rescinded. Giving up membership of the House of Lords is separate from giving up a peerage, however. Life peerages cannot be relinquished.
Based on the downloadable csv file from your link, RefUK is boycotting Sheffield.
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
WTF? They were second in 2019 in the predecessor seat and it has a history of kicking established parties. Why would they not stand there? They won't have a better chance at any seat in Wales.
If they're not vetting candidates for that seat properly, prepare for one scandal after another.
It will be like OFSTED under Spielman on crack.
I very much doubt they have the resources to vet hundreds of candidates. That plus the likely calibre and views of the people they're liable to attract was always bound to result in trouble.
Farage will spend the next 3 weeks disassociating himself from one candidate after another.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
Well, constitutionally there's nothing stopping a PM being from the Lords.
That was actually the best Tom yam soup I’ver ever had coz they took out all the stupid bits of lemongrass, what is that about anyway, who wants to eat lemony straw. But they kept the umami and the prawns. Nice
The other caution I would have on these two most recent polls is that most ( or in fact maybe all ? ) the fieldwork seems to have been done before yesterday PM, and earlier today, when the D-day disaster really led the news.
Still, maybe we've been slightly overstating how much Reform are rising, nonetheless.
Well we have had four polls covering the actual leaving early and yesterday when the row really blew up and nothing 'obvious' showing up yet. More in Common did an extra few hundred responses to capture yesterday after the apology and Luke Tryl suggested whilst not enough data to be sure, Labour were maybe a bit further ahead on Fridays responses. Other pollsters seem to think it will have a profound effect this week. Mondays Delta and Redfield to shed some light? Unless any come out tonight with more work today
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
Well, constitutionally there's nothing stopping a PM being from the Lords.
Understood. But what constitutional principle requires the King to appoint Cameron as opposed to, say, Angela Smith, Baroness Smith of Basildon, who is the leader of the Labour Party in the Lords? There’s nothing binding him to the choice of Cameron as no one has a Commons majority.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
Does CR realise that being leader of the Tories and PM are, technically, two separate roles?
A Whitehall source said Cameron was “apoplectic” about Sunak’s decision but, when asked why he had not “picked Sunak up by his lapels”, he said: “There is only so much I can do.”
There was also fury at Buckingham Palace, where courtiers pointed out that the King, who is being treated for cancer, was advised not to travel but was determined to do so, despite being in pain. Advertisement
While the Tories are this weekend engaged in a circular firing squad to identify who to blame, the truth is, as one insider put it, everyone’s hands are covered in blood. The issue of what to do was debated in the three-day look-ahead meeting in Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at 1pm on Monday at which all Sunak’s key aides were present, including Isaac Levido, his campaign director, Liam Booth-Smith, the Downing Street chief of staff, and James Forsyth, his political secretary.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
It won’t happen, if course, but if the Tory Party wanted Cameron it could have him.
Sunak stays PM until election day but otherwise it’s hard to pick a new PM absent Parliament. Cameron leads the campaign, and the party, that rule being changed easily (clubs make their own rules). If a miracle then happens c Cameron becomes PM from the Lords, but presumably stands in a swiftly vacated safe seat.
What's the mechanism for renouncing a life peerage? Is there one?
There isn't. But the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 allows them to resign as a sitting member, after which they become eligible for election to the Commons.
Labour vote share in the 15 opinion polls before Farage announced he was leading & standing for RefUK:
44.53%
In the 15 opinion polls since then:
43.4%
Net drop in Labour vote share: 1.1%
Personally I would compare like-with-like. It's not good aggregating across different methodologies because you might end up with selection bias influencing the result.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
Well, constitutionally there's nothing stopping a PM being from the Lords.
No, but why would the King appoint a new PM in the middle of a GE campaign just because the Tories changed their leader? The cleanest way to mange is that Sunak stays PM and hands over to the election winner.
Well, there is because something can be saved from that.
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Cameron can take over the campaign. He can, through some form of internal shenanigans, become leader of the Conservative Party. I have huge doubts as to whether he can become PM though, huge doubts. I don’t see how it works. So you’re running a campaign with no idea who will be PM if you win. How does that work unless you just admit defeat and say you want to be a strong opposition? I don’t get it.
He can't become leader of the party.
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
And because Lord Cameron cannot become leader of the Conservative Party, he cannot be Prime Minister.
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
But, right now, no-one is elected to the Commons.
Yes, but the government is still the government, and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until he resigns, a few minutes before his successor is appointed.
If Sunak resigned as PM the King would take his advice on his successor which, given there's a Tory government already in place as the King's ministers, would be a Tory until such time as the lay of the land of the new HoC was clear post election.
Whereupon another resignation and appointment might take place.
Comments
Btw, when the spreads opened, Tory seats were at 164-172. The consensus here was it was about right but probably a buy rather than a sell. It is now 111-119, and a probable sell if you can stomach the risk.
I could see people switching to dishwasher salt in order to avoid the woke potassium!
I wonder if in my lifetime we’ll ever get a reliably accurate pollster. Surely that’s something AI could master.
Look out.
Reform figures from the latest polls:
Savanta 11%
MoreinCommon 11%
WeThink 15%
FocalData 14%
R&W 17%
Survation 15%
Techne 15%
Whitstone 16%
YouGov 16%
BMG 16%
Savanta and MoreinCommon look to be the ones out of kilter with the rest to me.
We know that both the Tories and Labour are selling budgetary fantasies to the electorate. Will Labour go after assets, wages, or implement cuts when they run out of money? That's the great unknowable. It depends greatly on whether or not they have the testicular fortitude to piss off the right people for a change.
Are some of the newer entrants to the polling market possibly using a more similar methodology to YouGov, on the previously politically committed Don't Knows,, that people have been mentioning ?
WTF is the point of that?
1 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
2 Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven
3 Bristol East
4 Cambridge
5 Cheltenham
6 Chorley
7 Doncaster North
8 Earley and Woodley
9 East Grinstead and Uckfield
10 Epping Forest
11 Hexham
12 Leeds South
13 Maidenhead
14 Mid Dorset and North Poole
15 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
16 Oxford East
17 Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough
18 Sheffield Central
19 Sheffield Hallam
20 Sheffield Heeley
21 Sheffield South East
22 West Dorset
Lab 42 (-3)
Con 24 (-1)
Ref 12 (+1)
LD 10 (+2)
Green 7 (+1)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/08/labour-pledges-80-new-courts-in-bid-to-tackle-backlog-crisis
5 to 7 June most before DDaygate
OTOH Sunak is a vastly inferior politician than Major, starting from a much worse position, of course.
Other pollsters (who tend towards much less kind to the Conservatives) are available.
PS. The debate was a Tory disaster too, the debate polls showed, despite/because of Sunak lying the Tory campaign into a ditch just to get through it.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/28/bookmark-this-post-and-these-tweets/
But I'm now in a place where I wonder just how much more damage Sunak can do in the next 4 weeks.
He will certainly make more mistakes. I'd far rather take the risk of David Cameron playing nightwatchman now, to be honest.
Albeit a rather worse one than Major in 1992.
45%
41%
43%
40%
41%
Tonight’s 42% is all part of MOE
Conservative Party Constitution, part iii section 10:
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons
If the Tories promise a £2m IHT threshold why wouldn't Refuk turn round and offer to raise it to £5m and halve the rate to 20%?
I know that HYUFD wishes that it were otherwise, but this would be a stupid race for the Tories to get themselves into. Refuk will outbid them, and Labour will paint them as irresponsible Trussite fantasists.
Best we can hope for from Reeves is that she uses the "we've now seen the books and things are even worse than we thought" excuse and, given the strong manifesto commitments over income tax and national insurance, uses this as a pretext to go after assets - hiking CGT and, if she's feeling property bold, going after houses.
But we're not going to get anything apart from the chicken feed tax rises already announced and these cloud cuckoo fantasies about rampant economic growth this side of polling day, I agree.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cerr84j3ezko
If they're not vetting candidates for that seat properly, prepare for one scandal after another.
It will be like OFSTED under Spielman on crack.
As ever, the far right flatter to deceive
(same with the far left btw)
Should we be expecting another fit of political genius this evening?
Oliver Dowden is deputy PM so if Rishi were to fall under a bus, it would probably be he who takes over.
Had they created a genuinely exciting levelling-up story to tell and built 40 new hospitals - all perfectly Gaukite BJ policies - the red wall would very much still be in play.
But another three PMs later, no continuity, no focus on delivery (and I concede, strong external headwinds), they have nothing to boast about on the left or right. Forgiving Philip Hammond and having him instead of Kwarteng, or Ed Vaizey knowing that Channel 4 is publicly-owned but self funding (unlike Dorries), might have just made some of the bumps of the past 5 years a bit less bumpy.
But nonetheless cause for modest concern, I’d say. If it continues eroding at this rate Labour could end up in the mid 30s
!
Depends on Farage screwing up, I suppose.
So if Rishi somehow vanished, they would become a leaderless rabble?
No change there, then.
The kind of voter they're trying to win back thinks that anyone who isn't them (i.e. pensionable) and claims social security is a scrounger anyway, so they will approve - and one thing about knowing that you are beaten is knowing that you don't have to implement such a promise, either. The Tories can't afford to be quite so divorced from reality as Reform, if they want to retain some credibility as a plausible main opposition force, but it does give them latitude to give their core support more stuff to wank over.
YouGov are the friendliest generally to reform and have been all along. What Redfield and Techne have in common is they both consistently show Tories losing the over 65 to Lab by 10 points or so......
They would look silly but it could be managed.
But, the D-Day screw up is likely to be far more damaging and perhaps hasn't fully fed through yet.
Sunak stays PM until election day but otherwise it’s hard to pick a new PM absent Parliament. Cameron leads the campaign, and the party, that rule being changed easily (clubs make their own rules). If a miracle then happens c Cameron becomes PM from the Lords, but presumably stands in a swiftly vacated safe seat.
Still, maybe we've been slightly overstating the extent to which Reform are rising on here, nonetheless.
@AVMikhailova
EXC: Grant Shapps - not David Cameron - was originally down to deputise for Rishi Sunak at the second part of D Day
The call to sub in Cameron was made about a week before, insiders said - after aides realised it would look odd to have Shapps with the world leaders
Cameron was sent on the grounds he is an ex-PM
Of course if short term anger tips crossover that might self reinforce
Wonderful over from Jordan though.
Which is probably why the theory persists that he fancies himself as next-but-one Tory leader.
Edit - oh balls, not quite.
The Institute for Government doesn't agree.
Peerages are held until a person’s death, but the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 allows peers to resign as sitting members. To do this, they must give written notice to the clerk of the parliaments – the most senior impartial official in the Lords. Resignations cannot be rescinded. Giving up membership of the House of Lords is separate from giving up a peerage, however. Life peerages cannot be relinquished.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/joining-and-leaving-house-lords
Not sure whether that would make a life peer eligible for the Commons?
Heh.
Labour vote share in the 15 opinion polls before Farage announced he was leading & standing for RefUK:
44.53%
In the 15 opinion polls since then:
43.4%
Net drop in Labour vote share: 1.1%
There was also fury at Buckingham Palace, where courtiers pointed out that the King, who is being treated for cancer, was advised not to travel but was determined to do so, despite being in pain.
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While the Tories are this weekend engaged in a circular firing squad to identify who to blame, the truth is, as one insider put it, everyone’s hands are covered in blood. The issue of what to do was debated in the three-day look-ahead meeting in Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at 1pm on Monday at which all Sunak’s key aides were present, including Isaac Levido, his campaign director, Liam Booth-Smith, the Downing Street chief of staff, and James Forsyth, his political secretary.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/infighting-on-the-beaches-behind-the-scenes-of-the-d-day-debacle-6rlvt8nr6
Not behind a paywall today
Whereupon another resignation and appointment might take place.