And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com

Leon said:

It’s high time PB woke gestapo tried to get me banned again. It’s been at least three days

sarissa said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

T

FrancisUrquhart said:

numbertwelve said:

I think this is up there with the Bigoted Woman in terms of GE clusterf**ks. And at least with Mrs Duffy, Brown could be partially forgiven for thinking he wasn’t being recorded….

For Sunak / Tories, its even worse given that so far the campaign has been big on do your national service.

This is so much worse

Attack line for the next 24 hours -
"Sunak wants young people to do twelve months of National Service? He can't even do twelve hours!"

darkage said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

darkage said:

Cicero said:

FF43 said:

maaarsh said:

BobSykes said:

I thought the low bar set by Brown in 2010 for GE campaign incompetence by a PM would never be surpassed, but Rishi is quite unbelievable in his staggering ineptitude.

I've been broadly sympathetic to his plight and much as it pains me to do so, expecting to put a cross in the blue box despite zero prospect of a Tory hold in my ultra marginal seat even if the polls had been neck and neck.

I'm resigned to Labour, have been for 3 years, and accept one party can't stay in power for more than 14/15 years, I'm fine with Keir as PM, dull as he'll probably be, but I'm utterly depressed at the thought of the Tories being wiped out and Labour having a stupendous majority that will keep them/ the left in power for a generation. And that I'll be totally disenfranchised if my only prospect is to vote for some Faragist rabble.

I'm 47. I could be approaching my 70s before the country swings back to the centre right, if it ever does at all.

I'm so depressed about this, as someone who's taken a close interest in politics for maybe 35 years. Sad.

Tories got a 10 year majority last time, things can turn much quicker than you think.

I admit as someone who thought Johnson had realigned politics for a generation, I was surprised how quickly it all fell apart. So we shouldn't make the same assumption about Starmer going on for ever. Nevertheless the opposite assumption is also a mistake. My impression of Starmer is he is very ambitious for a lengthy period in office and will do his utmost to win the following election.

So Starmer might crash and burn or he might be there for years and years. Not a particularly useful assessment for a site dedicated to political predictions, I accept.

It depends how fundamentally broken you think British politics is.

If Starmer can stabilise the ship, get into a generally broad based recovery, then he will stay in office for a while, and the Tories can go through their usual cats in a sack fun time in the first two terms, and maybe recover for a third term.

If Starmer can not fix things and becomes rapidly unpopular, then the whole system will become unstable. You could then see a real breakdown in politics, with the failures of our Victorian political system leading to crisis and paralysis.

Then Putinists like Farage might well get their Trump moment and the shit really hits the fan.

As of now, it could go either way, but the innate conservatism of the system and the country may yet stabilise things. However the slightest thing, something like an early change of Monarch for example, or some epochal disaster, might also lead to a general questioning of our entire system.

After the abject chaos of the Tory misrule, the country needs to settle down. Certainly Farage is the last thing we need at this point, and with no real party behind him, I really do question if Reform UK Ltd. is anything more than a sophisticated astrotrurf operation.

It is a bit unfortunate that Farage needs to come back in to politics but it is because liberal elites (including the conservative party) have failed to absorb the lessons of Brexit.

What, that it's a failure, and trying to placate the reactionary right only makes things worse? Those lessons?

The thing that I would observe is that popular revolts against mass immigration, particularly illegal immigration, are bringing the 'populist right' to power across Europe, and probably also back to power in the US. It seems obvious to me that it is the wrong response to describe those revolting as 'fascists' etc, try and get them cancelled, outlaw them by laws about hate speech, etc. This kind of suppression of pretty mainsteam views outside the 'liberal elite' isn't going to work. Maybe just let people speak and let them participate in the discourse, which is what Farage does by representing them.

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

It’s high time PB woke gestapo tried to get me banned again. It’s been at least three days

Nah, just accept you erred (we all do) and move on.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Cookie said:

MoonRabbit said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Anyoneknow what the record number of posts in a thread is?

Are we making an attempt on the record?

But the big long threads seem to be working well for discussion though? In relation to days with lots of threads to jump across to, that can be discussion(s) killer, this feels okay?

But editors also need to be mindful lots of lurkers come for the quality and independent thoughts in the headers, i suspect.

A focus on quality not quantity of headers, and longer threads for discussion seems good balance to me.

In fairness to the editors, OGH has stepped down, TSE is off sick and Robert lives in another timezone. It's not surprising if we have to talk amongst ourselves for a little longer than usual.

The depleted editorial team should use OGH's old tricks of starting a thread every time he saw a tweet about a new opinion poll, and when he didn't, regularly starting generic Nighthawks threads. We do not need the editors to spend the whole day crafting thousand-word headers.

algarkirk said:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/07/experience-i-live-on-trains

Is this bloke on PB and if not why not.
Has he been to South Greenford.

rottenborough said:

Isabel Oakeshott
@IsabelOakeshott
·
1m
👀 Introducing my new project! News, intelligence and analysis from the heart of the political Right. Sign up here! http://insidetheright.today


https://x.com/IsabelOakeshott

numbertwelve said:

eek said:

https://x.com/Psythor/status/1799008877008282042

James O'Malley
@Psythor
·
2h
The thing I don’t get about Rishi skipping D-Day is that it was basically his last chance to be a big, important international statesman at a major international event like that. Wouldn’t you want to do that, knowing you’ll never have another chance?

There's also the G7 next week where the topic of conversation may well be where did you get to last week...

He’s already checked out, IMHO.

There is a train of thinking that he might’ve called the GE in July because he actually couldn’t bear hanging around until November. We will likely get the full story in time, but I actually wonder if he knew the game was up weeks ago and now he’s just going through the motions.

turbotubbs said:

purge... of the right wingers

rottenborough said:

Isabel Oakeshott
@IsabelOakeshott
·
1m
👀 Introducing my new project! News, intelligence and analysis from the heart of the political Right. Sign up here! http://insidetheright.today


https://x.com/IsabelOakeshott

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/07/incoming-ministers-will-face-uk-public-services-on-brink-of-collapse

This feels like a more important news story today than precisely when Sunak departed Northern France. Or am I the only person on PB who uses public services?

Nunu5 said:

MoonRabbit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Will Boris stand? That would throw the cat among the Tory leader pigeons (and land my bet).

Watch this space for imminent news on that one. 🙂

Because you have info or because of the deadline

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

It’s high time PB woke gestapo tried to get me banned again. It’s been at least three days

Nah, just accept you erred (we all do) and move on.

No. Come get me

No, you're not worth it.

I'm not surprised at your racism, its not the first and won't be your last.

Theuniondivvie said:

Things have come to a pretty pass when PB Righties are arguing over what flavour of crap Sunak is.

rottenborough said:

Isabel Oakeshott
@IsabelOakeshott
·
1m
👀 Introducing my new project! News, intelligence and analysis from the heart of the political Right. Sign up here! http://insidetheright.today


https://x.com/IsabelOakeshott

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

It’s high time PB woke gestapo tried to get me banned again. It’s been at least three days

Nah, just accept you erred (we all do) and move on.

No. Come get me

No, you're not worth it.

I'm not surprised at your racism, its not the first and won't be your last.

I see your point but you’re a stupid fat dickless loser in a Barratt home new build in Warrington. So we also have to take that into consideration, surely, as it means you are SO low in the pecking order of life you are desperate for the tiniest scintilla of perceived superiority, moral or intellectual, even when it is clearly bogus, as here

YOU’LL FIND ME AT THE MOZART CAFE

MarqueeMark said:

I feel sorry for a core of Tory MPs who have been bloody good constituency MPs, but who have been undermined in getting re-elected by too many of their colleagues, from the top down.

Dura_Ace said:

Focus Group of One Alert. I've been waiting in all day for my new garage door openers to be delivered. They just arrived and after the van driver said Ingerland had "no fucking chance" in the Euros his parting quip was that "Richy" Sunak was a wanker. He actually pronounced it /ˈrɪʧi/ which would have gratified Scott_XP and further enraged Casino. Were such a thing possible.

D-Daygate cut through = 3 feet high and rising.

numbertwelve said:

eek said:

https://x.com/Psythor/status/1799008877008282042

James O'Malley
@Psythor
·
2h
The thing I don’t get about Rishi skipping D-Day is that it was basically his last chance to be a big, important international statesman at a major international event like that. Wouldn’t you want to do that, knowing you’ll never have another chance?

There's also the G7 next week where the topic of conversation may well be where did you get to last week...

He’s already checked out, IMHO.

There is a train of thinking that he might’ve called the GE in July because he actually couldn’t bear hanging around until November. We will likely get the full story in time, but I actually wonder if he knew the game was up weeks ago and now he’s just going through the motions.

Scott_xP said:

MarqueeMark said:

I feel sorry for a core of Tory MPs who have been bloody good constituency MPs, but who have been undermined in getting re-elected by too many of their colleagues, from the top down.

Shame you didn't feel the same for the many even better MPs who were booted by your boy, BoZo.

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

MarqueeMark said:

I feel sorry for a core of Tory MPs who have been bloody good constituency MPs, but who have been undermined in getting re-elected by too many of their colleagues, from the top down.

Shame you didn't feel the same for the many even better MPs who were booted by your boy, BoZo.

Except they weren't.

noneoftheabove said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

It’s high time PB woke gestapo tried to get me banned again. It’s been at least three days

Nah, just accept you erred (we all do) and move on.

No. Come get me

No, you're not worth it.

I'm not surprised at your racism, its not the first and won't be your last.

I see your point but you’re a stupid fat dickless loser in a Barratt home new build in Warrington. So we also have to take that into consideration, surely, as it means you are SO low in the pecking order of life you are desperate for the tiniest scintilla of perceived superiority, moral or intellectual, even when it is clearly bogus, as here

YOU’LL FIND ME AT THE MOZART CAFE

Don't take on Trump for the most toddler like boomer, you will only lose.

Scott_xP said:

OllyT said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

If the Tory press gives this Sunak story the coverage they would give it if a Labour PM had done the same, I reckon we're looking at a total Tory meltdown in the polls. But it is a big if.

Calm down.

I love D-Day and Operation Overlord and even I didn't give a fuck about the 80th anniversary today.

It has zero cut through.

TOPPING said:

We haven't heard from Casino on this yet. Perhaps he is still in a darkened room with a damp towel over his head.

Not a problem, he assured us in his usual pompous manner that it would have "zero cut through"

TBF, the BBC did its absolute best to ignore the story for as long as they could.

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
12m
Rishi Sunak says the issue shouldn’t be politicised and we should focus on the veterans. There was supposed to be a campaign pause for D-Day. He broke it, left the veterans, and came home for a political interview.

https://x.com/DPJHodges?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Taz said:

Eabhal said:

Taz said:

Eabhal said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

eek said:

Eabhal said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Eabhal said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Eabhal said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Eabhal said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Eabhal said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Eabhal said:

Cicero said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?

40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.

That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.

There he blows!

New homes: 2.0 million
Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.

That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.

The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

YIMBY Gold award:

Selby
Huntingdonshire
Mid Suffolk
Telford and Wrekin
West Lindsey

NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

Pendle
Thurrock
Swale
Epping Forest
Peterborough

Urban Excellence award: Southwark
Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)

This glut is all in your head.

The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️

8.2% increase in homes
6.1% increase in households
6.3% increase in population

Why are you lying?

Your households figure is a lie. You know this, so why repeat it?

People who are compelled to share a home as there's not enough houses are classed as one household. You know that, but you're repeating your lies anyway. 🤦‍♂️

The idea that t here's been a lesser increase in household demand than population increase, when our demographic changes mean there's even further household pressures, is so obviously false its remarkable your following through on this outright blatant lie.

The number of people per household has fallen, and overcrowding has fallen too.

Edit: sorry, the population per household has risen* This is explained by immigrants being much more efficient users of households than say older people

The number of people per household should have fallen as we have 4 million extra over 50s than we did. Who don't live with children.🤦‍♂️

Immigration doesn't counter that.

Your own data reveals the chronic housing shortage. Again!

In most LAs, housing pressure is actually falling. It's only in about 100 where you see this acute problem, and they are mostly in our cities.

Don't believe you - please provide evidence because even this week I saw issues in 3 local authorities round here..

Absolutely.

I'd love to know these mythical local authorities without housing shortages.

I provided you with some examples above

I have posted the infographic on this before too, once directly in reply to Bart.

Glad you got there in the end. You have always banged on that we build plenty of homes. You always missed the point that these are not necessarily where they are needed. Glad to see that is rectified.

That has always been the point I wanted to make.

But even then, I suspect more housebuilding in and around London, Edinburgh etc will just serve to keep pushing those economies on, never really solve the housing crisis there. Vicious cycle.

Sure. But what is the point of more housebuilding in areas like South Shields where the population actually contracted in between the censuses.

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

It’s high time PB woke gestapo tried to get me banned again. It’s been at least three days

Nah, just accept you erred (we all do) and move on.

No. Come get me

No, you're not worth it.

I'm not surprised at your racism, its not the first and won't be your last.

I see your point but you’re a stupid fat dickless loser in a Barratt home new build in Warrington. So we also have to take that into consideration, surely, as it means you are SO low in the pecking order of life you are desperate for the tiniest scintilla of perceived superiority, moral or intellectual, even when it is clearly bogus, as here

YOU’LL FIND ME AT THE MOZART CAFE

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

SandyRentool said:

numbertwelve said:

WTF kind of excuse is “it was pre-arranged” anyway? Nobody cares if it was pre-arranged, it looks bad because you did it, not because of when it went into your diary.

I cannot believe that Rishi’s comms team like him, or that he is listening to them.

"It was pre-arranged to feck off early"

Whoever didn't block D-Day from his diary is not fit for purpose.

That he didn't spot it himself - ditto.

If we had gone from Boris to Penny Mordaunt, the Conservative Party - and the country - would have been in a better place. No way Penny would have shown such a lack of political acumen.

There are a bunch of MPs who voted for Truss who will have a long, long time to reflect on their stupidity. With that on their CV, hard to see how those ex-MPs who voted for her get another job any time soon.

I feel sorry for a core of Tory MPs who have been bloody good constituency MPs, but who have been undermined in getting re-elected by too many of their colleagues, from the top down.

Now we have Starmer drifting in to Downing Street, effectively unopposed. Which wouldn't be quite so bad if hadn't shown himself to be so utterly useless in that first debte. A lifelong barrister who can't make the case for voting for him? He could be on Trump's team of lawyers, being that bad.

Penny would have emerged from the waves in a WWII era dive suit holding a trident.

MarqueeMark said:

SandyRentool said:

numbertwelve said:

WTF kind of excuse is “it was pre-arranged” anyway? Nobody cares if it was pre-arranged, it looks bad because you did it, not because of when it went into your diary.

I cannot believe that Rishi’s comms team like him, or that he is listening to them.

"It was pre-arranged to feck off early"

Whoever didn't block D-Day from his diary is not fit for purpose.

That he didn't spot it himself - ditto.

If we had gone from Boris to Penny Mordaunt, the Conservative Party - and the country - would have been in a better place. No way Penny would have shown such a lack of political acumen.

There are a bunch of MPs who voted for Truss who will have a long, long time to reflect on their stupidity. With that on their CV, hard to see how those ex-MPs who voted for her get another job any time soon.

I feel sorry for a core of Tory MPs who have been bloody good constituency MPs, but who have been undermined in getting re-elected by too many of their colleagues, from the top down.

Now we have Starmer drifting in to Downing Street, effectively unopposed. Which wouldn't be quite so bad if hadn't shown himself to be so utterly useless in that first debte. A lifelong barrister who can't make the case for voting for him? He could be on Trump's team of lawyers, being that bad.

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

SandyRentool said:

numbertwelve said:

WTF kind of excuse is “it was pre-arranged” anyway? Nobody cares if it was pre-arranged, it looks bad because you did it, not because of when it went into your diary.

I cannot believe that Rishi’s comms team like him, or that he is listening to them.

"It was pre-arranged to feck off early"

Whoever didn't block D-Day from his diary is not fit for purpose.

That he didn't spot it himself - ditto.

If we had gone from Boris to Penny Mordaunt, the Conservative Party - and the country - would have been in a better place. No way Penny would have shown such a lack of political acumen.

There are a bunch of MPs who voted for Truss who will have a long, long time to reflect on their stupidity. With that on their CV, hard to see how those ex-MPs who voted for her get another job any time soon.

I feel sorry for a core of Tory MPs who have been bloody good constituency MPs, but who have been undermined in getting re-elected by too many of their colleagues, from the top down.

Now we have Starmer drifting in to Downing Street, effectively unopposed. Which wouldn't be quite so bad if hadn't shown himself to be so utterly useless in that first debte. A lifelong barrister who can't make the case for voting for him? He could be on Trump's team of lawyers, being that bad.

Penny would have emerged from the waves in a WWII era dive suit holding a trident.

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

SandyRentool said:

numbertwelve said:

WTF kind of excuse is “it was pre-arranged” anyway? Nobody cares if it was pre-arranged, it looks bad because you did it, not because of when it went into your diary.

I cannot believe that Rishi’s comms team like him, or that he is listening to them.

"It was pre-arranged to feck off early"

Whoever didn't block D-Day from his diary is not fit for purpose.

That he didn't spot it himself - ditto.

If we had gone from Boris to Penny Mordaunt, the Conservative Party - and the country - would have been in a better place. No way Penny would have shown such a lack of political acumen.

There are a bunch of MPs who voted for Truss who will have a long, long time to reflect on their stupidity. With that on their CV, hard to see how those ex-MPs who voted for her get another job any time soon.

I feel sorry for a core of Tory MPs who have been bloody good constituency MPs, but who have been undermined in getting re-elected by too many of their colleagues, from the top down.

Now we have Starmer drifting in to Downing Street, effectively unopposed. Which wouldn't be quite so bad if hadn't shown himself to be so utterly useless in that first debte. A lifelong barrister who can't make the case for voting for him? He could be on Trump's team of lawyers, being that bad.

Penny would have emerged from the waves in a WWII era dive suit holding a trident.

COPP style, diving in originally from a canoe paddled by, who? That would have been good.

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

SandyRentool said:

numbertwelve said:

WTF kind of excuse is “it was pre-arranged” anyway? Nobody cares if it was pre-arranged, it looks bad because you did it, not because of when it went into your diary.

I cannot believe that Rishi’s comms team like him, or that he is listening to them.

"It was pre-arranged to feck off early"

Whoever didn't block D-Day from his diary is not fit for purpose.

That he didn't spot it himself - ditto.

If we had gone from Boris to Penny Mordaunt, the Conservative Party - and the country - would have been in a better place. No way Penny would have shown such a lack of political acumen.

There are a bunch of MPs who voted for Truss who will have a long, long time to reflect on their stupidity. With that on their CV, hard to see how those ex-MPs who voted for her get another job any time soon.

I feel sorry for a core of Tory MPs who have been bloody good constituency MPs, but who have been undermined in getting re-elected by too many of their colleagues, from the top down.

Now we have Starmer drifting in to Downing Street, effectively unopposed. Which wouldn't be quite so bad if hadn't shown himself to be so utterly useless in that first debte. A lifelong barrister who can't make the case for voting for him? He could be on Trump's team of lawyers, being that bad.

Penny would have emerged from the waves in a WWII era dive suit holding a trident.

COPP style, diving in originally from a canoe paddled by, who? That would have been good.

Dura_Ace said:

carnforth said:

Dura_Ace said:

Focus Group of One Alert. I've been waiting in all day for my new garage door openers to be delivered. They just arrived and after the van driver said Ingerland had "no fucking chance" in the Euros his parting quip was that "Richy" Sunak was a wanker. He actually pronounced it /ˈrɪʧi/ which would have gratified Scott_XP and further enraged Casino. Were such a thing possible.

D-Daygate cut through = 3 feet high and rising.

I was expecting you to consider the reaction here and elsewhere to Sunak leaving early to be a little Gammony.

I don't give a fuck whether he went, didn't go, left early or drowned in the Channel. Though the last would have been my preferred outcome. I was just pointing out that lots of people do seem to care. Including the fat oaf in the Sprinter who brought my garage door openers.

FF43 said:

darkage said:

Cicero said:

FF43 said:

maaarsh said:

BobSykes said:

I thought the low bar set by Brown in 2010 for GE campaign incompetence by a PM would never be surpassed, but Rishi is quite unbelievable in his staggering ineptitude.

I've been broadly sympathetic to his plight and much as it pains me to do so, expecting to put a cross in the blue box despite zero prospect of a Tory hold in my ultra marginal seat even if the polls had been neck and neck.

I'm resigned to Labour, have been for 3 years, and accept one party can't stay in power for more than 14/15 years, I'm fine with Keir as PM, dull as he'll probably be, but I'm utterly depressed at the thought of the Tories being wiped out and Labour having a stupendous majority that will keep them/ the left in power for a generation. And that I'll be totally disenfranchised if my only prospect is to vote for some Faragist rabble.

I'm 47. I could be approaching my 70s before the country swings back to the centre right, if it ever does at all.

I'm so depressed about this, as someone who's taken a close interest in politics for maybe 35 years. Sad.

Tories got a 10 year majority last time, things can turn much quicker than you think.

I admit as someone who thought Johnson had realigned politics for a generation, I was surprised how quickly it all fell apart. So we shouldn't make the same assumption about Starmer going on for ever. Nevertheless the opposite assumption is also a mistake. My impression of Starmer is he is very ambitious for a lengthy period in office and will do his utmost to win the following election.

So Starmer might crash and burn or he might be there for years and years. Not a particularly useful assessment for a site dedicated to political predictions, I accept.

It depends how fundamentally broken you think British politics is.

If Starmer can stabilise the ship, get into a generally broad based recovery, then he will stay in office for a while, and the Tories can go through their usual cats in a sack fun time in the first two terms, and maybe recover for a third term.

If Starmer can not fix things and becomes rapidly unpopular, then the whole system will become unstable. You could then see a real breakdown in politics, with the failures of our Victorian political system leading to crisis and paralysis.

Then Putinists like Farage might well get their Trump moment and the shit really hits the fan.

As of now, it could go either way, but the innate conservatism of the system and the country may yet stabilise things. However the slightest thing, something like an early change of Monarch for example, or some epochal disaster, might also lead to a general questioning of our entire system.

After the abject chaos of the Tory misrule, the country needs to settle down. Certainly Farage is the last thing we need at this point, and with no real party behind him, I really do question if Reform UK Ltd. is anything more than a sophisticated astrotrurf operation.

It is a bit unfortunate that Farage needs to come back in to politics but it is because liberal elites (including the conservative party) have failed to absorb the lessons of Brexit.

The lessons of Brexit presumably being never do anything so stupid again? There's a reason why no-one is talking about Brexit success in this election campaign

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Dura_Ace said:

carnforth said:

Dura_Ace said:

Focus Group of One Alert. I've been waiting in all day for my new garage door openers to be delivered. They just arrived and after the van driver said Ingerland had "no fucking chance" in the Euros his parting quip was that "Richy" Sunak was a wanker. He actually pronounced it /ˈrɪʧi/ which would have gratified Scott_XP and further enraged Casino. Were such a thing possible.

D-Daygate cut through = 3 feet high and rising.

I was expecting you to consider the reaction here and elsewhere to Sunak leaving early to be a little Gammony.

I don't give a fuck whether he went, didn't go, left early or drowned in the Channel. Though the last would have been my preferred outcome. I was just pointing out that lots of people do seem to care. Including the fat oaf in the Sprinter who brought my garage door openers.

Why was he so negative on England's chances in the Euros? Southgate's team has a sparkling set of players up front. Perhaps he is concerned about their vulnerability at the back.

ToryJim said:

boulay said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
12m
Rishi Sunak says the issue shouldn’t be politicised and we should focus on the veterans. There was supposed to be a campaign pause for D-Day. He broke it, left the veterans, and came home for a political interview.

https://x.com/DPJHodges?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Um, he filmed an interview that wasn’t to be aired during D-day events and so clearly didn’t do any campaigning.

The only reason people are aware he did an interview for the campaign is because of people wetting their pants about him missing part of the D-day commemorations. So he respected the campaigning pause - it was others who turned it into part of the campaign.

That’s not how people will see it. He didn’t have time in his diary for veterans of D Day but could find the time to do a campaign interview. And his excuse that he did the British events but not the non-British one is just staggering. The liberation of Nazi occupied Europe was a joint endeavour, the commemoration of it should be too. Any PM who doesn’t get that instinctively deserves everything he gets.

biggles said:

FF43 said:

darkage said:

Cicero said:

FF43 said:

maaarsh said:

BobSykes said:

I thought the low bar set by Brown in 2010 for GE campaign incompetence by a PM would never be surpassed, but Rishi is quite unbelievable in his staggering ineptitude.

I've been broadly sympathetic to his plight and much as it pains me to do so, expecting to put a cross in the blue box despite zero prospect of a Tory hold in my ultra marginal seat even if the polls had been neck and neck.

I'm resigned to Labour, have been for 3 years, and accept one party can't stay in power for more than 14/15 years, I'm fine with Keir as PM, dull as he'll probably be, but I'm utterly depressed at the thought of the Tories being wiped out and Labour having a stupendous majority that will keep them/ the left in power for a generation. And that I'll be totally disenfranchised if my only prospect is to vote for some Faragist rabble.

I'm 47. I could be approaching my 70s before the country swings back to the centre right, if it ever does at all.

I'm so depressed about this, as someone who's taken a close interest in politics for maybe 35 years. Sad.

Tories got a 10 year majority last time, things can turn much quicker than you think.

I admit as someone who thought Johnson had realigned politics for a generation, I was surprised how quickly it all fell apart. So we shouldn't make the same assumption about Starmer going on for ever. Nevertheless the opposite assumption is also a mistake. My impression of Starmer is he is very ambitious for a lengthy period in office and will do his utmost to win the following election.

So Starmer might crash and burn or he might be there for years and years. Not a particularly useful assessment for a site dedicated to political predictions, I accept.

It depends how fundamentally broken you think British politics is.

If Starmer can stabilise the ship, get into a generally broad based recovery, then he will stay in office for a while, and the Tories can go through their usual cats in a sack fun time in the first two terms, and maybe recover for a third term.

If Starmer can not fix things and becomes rapidly unpopular, then the whole system will become unstable. You could then see a real breakdown in politics, with the failures of our Victorian political system leading to crisis and paralysis.

Then Putinists like Farage might well get their Trump moment and the shit really hits the fan.

As of now, it could go either way, but the innate conservatism of the system and the country may yet stabilise things. However the slightest thing, something like an early change of Monarch for example, or some epochal disaster, might also lead to a general questioning of our entire system.

After the abject chaos of the Tory misrule, the country needs to settle down. Certainly Farage is the last thing we need at this point, and with no real party behind him, I really do question if Reform UK Ltd. is anything more than a sophisticated astrotrurf operation.

It is a bit unfortunate that Farage needs to come back in to politics but it is because liberal elites (including the conservative party) have failed to absorb the lessons of Brexit.

The lessons of Brexit presumably being never do anything so stupid again? There's a reason why no-one is talking about Brexit success in this election campaign

Because it’s a fact of life now, has little impact on most day to day lives, and everyone sensible realises it’s irreversible and whatever their views in the referendum it’s time to move on?

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

MarqueeMark said:

I feel sorry for a core of Tory MPs who have been bloody good constituency MPs, but who have been undermined in getting re-elected by too many of their colleagues, from the top down.

Shame you didn't feel the same for the many even better MPs who were booted by your boy, BoZo.

Except they weren't.

Hands up if you think Dominic Grieve was a true Conservative and a Gentleman. Ooh lots of hands.

Hands up if you think Jonathan Gullis isn't a complete moron. What, none?

boulay said:

ToryJim said:

boulay said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
12m
Rishi Sunak says the issue shouldn’t be politicised and we should focus on the veterans. There was supposed to be a campaign pause for D-Day. He broke it, left the veterans, and came home for a political interview.

https://x.com/DPJHodges?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Um, he filmed an interview that wasn’t to be aired during D-day events and so clearly didn’t do any campaigning.

The only reason people are aware he did an interview for the campaign is because of people wetting their pants about him missing part of the D-day commemorations. So he respected the campaigning pause - it was others who turned it into part of the campaign.

That’s not how people will see it. He didn’t have time in his diary for veterans of D Day but could find the time to do a campaign interview. And his excuse that he did the British events but not the non-British one is just staggering. The liberation of Nazi occupied Europe was a joint endeavour, the commemoration of it should be too. Any PM who doesn’t get that instinctively deserves everything he gets.

He didn’t have time for veterans except the one he pushed along in his wheelchair, the ones he met, addressed and quoted and praised at the ceremony he attended.

Now I know I’m one of probably three people on this site who didn’t stop everything yesterday and devote the day to watching D-day, and I apologise for that, but I’m guessing the veterans cared more about the king being there, about actually being there themselves and getting the thanks from the ordinary people.

I can’t imagine any of them knew who was actually attending the main ceremony. So let’s get someone to ask them - after all, it’s about them and their comrades. If they really are offended then Sunak needs to step down, if they say they don’t care, it’s not about politicians then we move on. Fair enough?

Eabhal said:

Ok, the pipe major in the town I grew up in has just completely lost it a series of deeply offensive Facebook posts, all related to D-gate.

CUT THROUGH

DavidL said:

boulay said:

ToryJim said:

boulay said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
12m
Rishi Sunak says the issue shouldn’t be politicised and we should focus on the veterans. There was supposed to be a campaign pause for D-Day. He broke it, left the veterans, and came home for a political interview.

https://x.com/DPJHodges?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Um, he filmed an interview that wasn’t to be aired during D-day events and so clearly didn’t do any campaigning.

The only reason people are aware he did an interview for the campaign is because of people wetting their pants about him missing part of the D-day commemorations. So he respected the campaigning pause - it was others who turned it into part of the campaign.

That’s not how people will see it. He didn’t have time in his diary for veterans of D Day but could find the time to do a campaign interview. And his excuse that he did the British events but not the non-British one is just staggering. The liberation of Nazi occupied Europe was a joint endeavour, the commemoration of it should be too. Any PM who doesn’t get that instinctively deserves everything he gets.

He didn’t have time for veterans except the one he pushed along in his wheelchair, the ones he met, addressed and quoted and praised at the ceremony he attended.

Now I know I’m one of probably three people on this site who didn’t stop everything yesterday and devote the day to watching D-day, and I apologise for that, but I’m guessing the veterans cared more about the king being there, about actually being there themselves and getting the thanks from the ordinary people.

I can’t imagine any of them knew who was actually attending the main ceremony. So let’s get someone to ask them - after all, it’s about them and their comrades. If they really are offended then Sunak needs to step down, if they say they don’t care, it’s not about politicians then we move on. Fair enough?

I am particularly busy at the moment but I regret to say that I did not see a single minute of the anniversary commemorations either. No doubt the fault is mine.

I get more than a little tired of those expressing outrage on someone else's behalf, someone they haven't even had the courtesy to ask. It is wearing.

OTOH I find it very difficult to see what Sunak could possibly do that could make him look more Prime Ministerial or like a leader of substance than being there and playing a prominent part. It is politically stupid and inept, as so many of his decisions are. Morally? Bah!