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And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    Big_Ian said:

    The Normandy snub is probably going to become the defining moment for Sunak in this campaign.

    It will cut through because it's about more than just the normal political point-scoring and mud-slinging.

    It's also revealing about Sunak's character, priorities and understanding. https://t.co/25y8brAslk

    — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) June 7, 2024
    Narratively it's also perfectly timed. We were already discussing about Reform polling above the Tories in opinion polls in the near future. Now such an event can be tied to Sunak's D-Day bunk off, because it's so obviously something that will particularly rile up Reform/Tory swing voters.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,222
    edited June 2024
    Eabhal said:

    I provided you with some examples above :)
    I have posted the infographic on this before too, once directly in reply to Bart.

    Glad you got there in the end. You have always banged on that we build plenty of homes. You always missed the point that these are not necessarily where they are needed. Glad to see that is rectified.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,530

    Either it is badly worded or, worse, it is legalistic sophistry that will have unravelled by the end of the day. However, we should bear in mind that malign, often foreign, actors are already trolling during this election campaign.
    Sunak could try that line: “Russian bots are questioning my patriotism. We can’t let them win by letting in a Labour government.”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,133
    edited June 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Trump, JFK, Berlusconi all ultra wealthy, all won as they had had charisma and could connect with voters
    Well Trump its debatable....I am not saying its impossible, I am saying it makes it much harder. I am saying it is a bigger hinderance for the Tory party than the fact Sunak is brown, basically nobody gives a stuff about the latter.

    They have picked 3 very privileged leaders in short succession. One was fine, the other two have been very poor. They would be better to find a Thatcher type person who had a normal background, did some normal type job for a while, and wasn't weird like May / Truss.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 740
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    She would still be there - taking selfies of herself in different helmets..
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,820
    edited June 2024
    maaarsh said:

    Blair had a golden inheritance and held it together for just over a decade. Starmer is inheriting a broken country with no real plans to change it beyond a generic left-wing playbook imposed on an already record tax take. His chances of making it work are very slim.
    It depends on how convincingly Starmer can pin the country's woes on the now decimated opposition. The Conservatives have provided him with plenty material to work with.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    HYUFD said:

    Do you really think Reform would be polling 15-20% if the Tory leader was a white male? I don't, sadly
    I'd agree with you that racism is one factor working against Sunak (with the types of voter you're talking about) but as to how big a factor compared to all the others - hopefully quite marginal. Course, you can't poll for this. Racism on a self-reported basis is vanishingly rare.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332

    ...the next migrant PM...? I see your true colours.
    Oh ffs. Enough wokeflakery. You know what I mean. The next time we have a pm without deep British roots - all they need is good advisors to help them get the things they wouldn’t get instinctively

    And this applies to anyone who migrates to anywhere else. It’s not easy to become another nationality and instantly understand the deep feelings and quirks and motivations of that nation. So much in a nation’s identity goes unsaid - it is felt

    This is not a problem for the average migrant, all they gotta do is obey the laws. But if you seek to lead that nation then yes it might be an issue. That’s when you get good advisors, which Sunak really really really seems to lack. Plus he is mega rich. He’s just different and detached

    And I speak as someone that quite likes him. He seems decent honesty smart hardworking. And tech savvy. And engaging. Chancellor was a good job for him. Or business minister. Or minister for technology or finance. But Prime minister was a massive step too far and here we are
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    No crossover today with YG
    Lab 41 (+1)
    Con 19. (=)
    Ref 16 (-1)
    LD 11 (+1)

    Still woeful for the Tories though. LDs become Official Opposition on that one according to EC.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    boulay said:

    Starmer, and Labour should probably think about how far to push attacks, demands for apologies etc. They are on for a landslide anyway and the more things they over-react about the more they are setting themselves up as hostages to fortune when they inevitably fuck up in power.

    I imagine Starmer thinks he’s being ruthless but he doesn’t need to be, his enemies are killing themselves, but he’s not being totally smart.

    Agreed. I think Labour have got the tone broadly right so far. But they should leave it there.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,596
    edited June 2024

    No crossover today with YG
    Lab 41 (+1)
    Con 19. (=)
    Ref 16 (-1)
    LD 11 (+1)

    Thanks Woolie.

    It seems YG picked up the Farageasm last time round, and this time the poll was a little too early to pick up on the D-Day error. (Thank goodness D-Daygate is too ugly and awkward to use.)

    Baxtered we have 501/48/0/63.

    That is not entirely implausible.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Pm pool interview on DDay about to drop
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Plenty of non-white Britons have ancestors who fought in WW2. There was a substantial British Indian army who fought in Asia but also in Europe. Also plenty of West Indians (who were all volunteers, none were conscripted). Plus of course mixed race Britons whose White British ancestors fought. If Sunak is disconnected from the "normal" British experience perhaps that's his parents' fault for sending him to an elitist school whose entire raison d'etre is to prevent mixing with "normal" British people?
    I suspect Sunak's real problem is a lack of empathy and curiosity. He seems to lack able advisors. It should also be evident that he is being lined up as the fall guy for the multiple governing failures of the British right.
    If in doubt with the Cons at the moment, it's most likely a question of competence. Call it 'Rishi's Rule'.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,853
    Taz said:

    I have posted the infographic on this before too, once directly in reply to Bart.

    Glad you got there in the end. You have always banged on that we build plenty of homes. You always missed the point that these are not necessarily where they are needed. Glad to see that is rectified.
    We do need to change where homes are needed. We need new towns, with local employers, around the country. We cannot continue to overheat London in what is already the most unbalanced national economy among our peers in Europe and elsewhere. We must go back to the new towns model that served us between and after the war.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    DM_Andy said:

    What I would be offering Farage right now if I were Sunak.

    Alliance between Con and Ref.
    Reform stand down in all Tory seats where the sitting MP is going for reelection (except Clacton)
    Tories stand down in all other Tory seats
    Everywhere else is 50/50.
    Sunak promises to resign immediately post election.
    Leader of a merged party to be elected with the MPs of both parties voting for a final two and the final vote being an electoral college of Tory members (50%) and Reform members (50%).

    They have about 4 hours to organise it.

    It's about all he can do. Reform reach the parts of the country the Sunak cant reach. Instead of mucking each other about they;d be safer having the kind of relationship Labour have with Cooperative Party MPs.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137

    ...the next migrant PM...? I see your true colours.
    A recent British PM of Anglo Russian Turkic ancestry & born in the USA was certainly able to synthesise the patriotic bullshit, perhaps Rishi should get him in as an advisor?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    The Sunak-Normandy error is an overdetermined problem. One angle I haven't seen much is that he was born in 1980. Much younger than other PMs. And for his entire adult life Britain's wars have been domestically controversial rather than nationally unifying. But none of these explains why some trusted advisor did not shout stop.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,667
    @damocrat

    At the going down of the sun,
    Rishi will be on ITV One.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,555

    We do need to change where homes are needed. We need new towns, with local employers, around the country. We cannot continue to overheat London in what is already the most unbalanced national economy among our peers in Europe and elsewhere. We must go back to the new towns model that served us between and after the war.
    So how do you actually shift the work from London to those regional new towns..

    Until you can answer that question you end up with all the demand being in London because that is where the work and the opportunities are..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    Sunak did what?

    Next he’s going to sell off the NHS to Rothschild & Co then he’s going to set a cat shelter on fire live on TV.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,222

    A doctored video of Labour's Wes Streeting has been pushed to X users - making it seem as though he called fellow politician Diane Abbott a "silly woman". A network of X accounts has been creating and sharing such clips of politicians ahead of the general election - and then posting misleading comments alongside to bolster the impression they are real.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg33x9jm02ko

    Nigel Farage and Luke Akehurst are also named.

    I have seen one of Luke Akehurst where he is making comments about Durham Residents being stupid Geordies and talking about Gaza. It is obviously a fake and doesn't even sound like him.

    It is not even a good fake like the one I saw of "Michael Saylor" promising people 2 BTC for every 1 BTC they sent him. Anyone falling for that deserves to be ripped off.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    Nigelb said:

    Did he say what it was ?
    He said: "Sorry, can you repeat the question please?"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,667
    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: 316 people crossed the Channel yesterday, the Home Office has just announced, the highest number so far in June.

    This number does not include the PM...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,877
    Nigelb said:

    OK, you've nailed it.

    Daft take of the day is officially yours.
    "There were no black people in Britain in the 1940s."
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    Sunak did what?

    Next he’s going to sell off the NHS to Rothschild & Co then he’s going to set a cat shelter on fire live on TV.

    Hope you're on the mend TSE!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    I'm a lot angrier about DDay than I thought I would be. I wonder how the rest of the nation are?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,853
    Taz said:
    It would be more impressive still were Reeves herself not already on generous DB pensions from her time at the Bank of England as her Parliamentary pension. She is not all in it together.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332
    However bad it is for the Tories, at least they’re not the greens

    “What to make of the Green Party? wow! what a charming lot

    "Green Party general election candidates have shared “antisemitic” slurs and conspiracy theories, backed pro-Palestinian protests at Auschwitz and justified the October 7 terrorist attacks on Israel.

    On Thursday night party officials were examining a dossier featuring nearly 20 candidates who have shared offensive material online. Among them were individuals who compared Zionism to cancer and claimed the Hamas atrocities on October 7 were a false flag orchestrated by Israel.

    A spokesman for the party said the allegations were “serious and are being treated as such”. Its final candidate list was still being decided before the deadline at 5pm on Friday, the spokesman said."”

    https://x.com/simonmontefiore/status/1799021576664625403?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,222
    eek said:

    So how do you actually shift the work from London to those regional new towns..

    Until you can answer that question you end up with all the demand being in London because that is where the work and the opportunities are..
    That's the issue. It has been tried before. What has been tried has failed so a new approach is needed.

    Will putting the govt workers in Darlington turbo charge growth in that area, or relocating HMRC offices into the Toon centre do that. I am not sure it will.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    eek said:

    To what purpose - if it hadn't been for the membership vote the only difference would have been Rishi winning the initial MP vote and becoming PM a few months earlier...
    Yes but politics is a contingent discipline. He would have been starting from a very different position so his options and choices would have been different. I don’t think you can say that Rishi was always going to end in this, you might have a case for saying he isn’t a natural etc but the context would have been very different.

    When you are in a doom loop even things that should normally improve your situation have a tendency to reinforce the doom. The Tories were struggling before Truss but she made things far worse such that I think it massively reduced the room for manoeuvre of whoever followed her. At every turn Rishi has one ok option and a dozen bad and terrible ones. Then factor in human error and you get where we are.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,133
    The fact the ITV interview wasn't even going out for a week is just weird. He is going to be wittering on about Labour £2k tax rise, no I didn't lie about that and then what? He can't answer any manifesto questions, it will just be all wait and see...which will look even weirder in a week time.

    Perhaps his handlers thought better not risk it when he has a load of policies to defend, get it done early?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    No crossover today with YG
    Lab 41 (+1)
    Con 19. (=)
    Ref 16 (-1)
    LD 11 (+1)

    I can't seem to find this poll. Do you have a link?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    Taz said:
    Probably part of sucking up to Hamas. Women need to know their place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,015
    Penddu2 said:

    She would still be there - taking selfies of herself in different helmets..
    Though other leaders might have decided to leave early ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,133
    Leon said:

    However bad it is for the Tories, at least they’re not the greens

    “What to make of the Green Party? wow! what a charming lot

    "Green Party general election candidates have shared “antisemitic” slurs and conspiracy theories, backed pro-Palestinian protests at Auschwitz and justified the October 7 terrorist attacks on Israel.

    On Thursday night party officials were examining a dossier featuring nearly 20 candidates who have shared offensive material online. Among them were individuals who compared Zionism to cancer and claimed the Hamas atrocities on October 7 were a false flag orchestrated by Israel.

    A spokesman for the party said the allegations were “serious and are being treated as such”. Its final candidate list was still being decided before the deadline at 5pm on Friday, the spokesman said."”

    https://x.com/simonmontefiore/status/1799021576664625403?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They clearly become the home for all the Corbyn nutters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442

    Hope you're on the mend TSE!
    Should be discharged this afternoon then weeks/months of recovery before I can resume a normal life.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,222

    It would be more impressive still were Reeves herself not already on generous DB pensions from her time at the Bank of England as her Parliamentary pension. She is not all in it together.
    But this is the state pension and we simply cannot afford to spend that level of money so she is taking the right decision here.

    How many of these so-called WASPI women also have DB pensions. Given their demographics a fair few.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Ghedebrav said:

    I can't seem to find this poll. Do you have a link?
    https://x.com/SpaJw/status/1799017331408175270?s=19
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    Labour getting involved. Not smart, but won't matter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,133
    https://order-order.com/2024/06/07/emily-thornberrys-lavish-praise-for-communist-cuban-regime/

    Do Corbyn, Thornberry etc really believe Cuban health and education system were top notch under Castro...because all those that fled didn't seem to think so. Its a bit like visiting North Korea now and saying well isn't it lovely, everybody is so happy.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    I'm a lot angrier about DDay than I thought I would be. I wonder how the rest of the nation are?

    I suspect a lot of them will be more angry about Jack Grealish.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,596

    Hope you're on the mend TSE!
    Ditto.

    Hopefully things will quieten down now he's back.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    ToryJim said:

    In fairness after the Trussterfuck he was the only viable option to impose without a contest. Whoever is the next leader should revise the party constitution particularly the leadership election rules.
    I thought he'd be competent, connect well with the public, and be a tough opponent for Starmer/Labour. I've been surprised by how much he's struggled.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,820

    No crossover today with YG
    Lab 41 (+1)
    Con 19. (=)
    Ref 16 (-1)
    LD 11 (+1)

    My gut feel is the Farage intervention will have a limited effect. Most of the remaining 19% still staying with the Conservatives can't stand the man and the 2019 Tory to 2024 Labour switchers will stick with their decision for now. 2019 Tory to Don't Knows is the main pool for Farage to fish in IMO.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,555
    edited June 2024
    Taz said:

    That's the issue. It has been tried before. What has been tried has failed so a new approach is needed.

    Will putting the govt workers in Darlington turbo charge growth in that area, or relocating HMRC offices into the Toon centre do that. I am not sure it will.
    In the case of Darlo - not really it's a few jobs and they are already having to talk about cross department transfers to give people promotion options (basically it's big but not big enough).

    HMRC moving into the Toon centre is a good move but that's because it was a faff to get to Longbenton so moving it centrally will increase the commute catchment area so increasing the number of potential people able to work there..

    The reality however is that for a lot of firms the catchment area of potential workers is such that there is nowhere you can move to that provides you with the skillset that exists in London.

    Take an example such as software development. say 1 in 10000 is a decent developer you can employ. To get 10 developers you need to be in a place where 1,000,000 people can easily get to the office to give you a chance of getting those 10 workers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,133

    I suspect a lot of them will be more angry about Jack Grealish.
    Terrible decision....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    EPG said:

    The Sunak-Normandy error is an overdetermined problem. One angle I haven't seen much is that he was born in 1980. Much younger than other PMs. And for his entire adult life Britain's wars have been domestically controversial rather than nationally unifying. But none of these explains why some trusted advisor did not shout stop.

    Yep, I think age is certainly a factor, much more so than the ‘migrant’ rubbish.
    The 3 features in North British news with vox pops last night were D Day, the impending Taylor Swift-gasm and the Scotland football team prep; kids and young people in the latter two, oldies and late middle agers in the former.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,133
    edited June 2024
    nico679 said:

    Sunak saying this shouldn’t be politicized ! So the Tories would have said zip if Starmer had done this .

    There are going to be endless tweets from Tories about Corbyn not acting up to scratch at similar events...when in a hole, spot digging.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    You know who wouldn't have thrown the election campaign by fucking off home early from D-Day?

    Liz Truss.
  • It's about all he can do. Reform reach the parts of the country the Sunak cant reach. Instead of mucking each other about they;d be safer having the kind of relationship Labour have with Cooperative Party MPs.

    That just looks desperate and offering to stand down would completely undercut Rishi's "it's me or Keir Starmer line"

    That's not to stay a future Con/Ref alliance couldn't work but it would be more likely to be for 28/29 (something like the higher placed party in each seat gets a clear run)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,013

    I'm a lot angrier about DDay than I thought I would be. I wonder how the rest of the nation are?

    It does seem to be in the news now, so it’s a story getting a bit of cut through. I just put the telly on and they were talking about it being a mistake Rishi made.

    There might be the argument the papers didn’t ignore it, but the DDay coverage was more important to lead with (which makes the Daily M*rror utter disgrace as true to form).

    Don’t know if any newspapers other than Mirror and Guardian will mention it tonight though, especially if Penny puts in great performance in the debate, they will lead with that. Penny the Ange and Farage Slayer [insert Conan with sword graphic]
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,222
    eek said:

    In the case of Darlo - not really it's a few jobs and they are already having to talk about cross department transfers to give people promotion options (basically it's big but not big enough).

    HMRC moving into the Toon centre is a good move but that's because it was a faff to get to Longbenton so moving it centrally will increase the commute catchment area so increasing the number of potential people able to work there..

    But it is just moving staff from Longbenton and Washington (IIRC) into Newcastle. It is not going to help level up. Won't create masses of extra jobs. It will certainly help the existing food and drinks concessions in the Toon but that is it really. The construction jobs are short term and welcome and the new building looks okay but that is it.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    There are going to be endless tweets from Tories about Corbyn not acting up to scratch at similar events...when in a hole, spot digging.
    Sunak doesn’t seem to realize this is an election campaign ! Of course it’s going to be politicized .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    Farooq said:

    UKIP did in 2015. Not sure where in Asia Cameron was born exactly.
    No UKIP got 12% in 2015 that is lower than Reform are polling in the latest polls
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,596
    Anyoneknow what the record number of posts in a thread is?

    Are we making an attempt on the record?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,853
    eek said:

    So how do you actually shift the work from London to those regional new towns..

    Until you can answer that question you end up with all the demand being in London because that is where the work and the opportunities are..
    The same way they did it before. First, just building a new town creates economic activity on its own. Then you persuade employers to move there.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,820
    nico679 said:

    Sunak saying this shouldn’t be politicized ! So the Tories would have said zip if Starmer had done this .

    Funnily enough I have some sympathy for this view. The D Day celebrations should be about the combatants. Which is perhaps a reason for Sunak not to draw attention to himself.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,222
    nico679 said:

    Sunak saying this shouldn’t be politicized ! So the Tories would have said zip if Starmer had done this .

    If they live by the sword they die by the sword. Of course the Tories would have made hay with it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,667
    Taz said:

    But it is just moving staff from Longbenton and Washington (IIRC) into Newcastle. It is not going to help level up. Won't create masses of extra jobs. It will certainly help the existing food and drinks concessions in the Toon but that is it really. The construction jobs are short term and welcome and the new building looks okay but that is it.

    After all the money they spent rebuilding Longbenton... (I worked there)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,283

    No crossover today with YG
    Lab 41 (+1)
    Con 19. (=)
    Ref 16 (-1)
    LD 11 (+1)

    D-Day-Gate will see it happening in next 48 hours IMHO.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,222
    Penddu2 said:

    She would still be there - taking selfies of herself in different helmets..
    Truss....Helmets......must resist !!!!!
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1798765548572119541
    Today is the 80th anniversary of D-Day, and 16% of Britons believe they have a relative who fought in the battle
    so 60,000 soldiers have now got 10 million relatives? It might explain this seeming to have more of a cut-through.

    Of course this might have zero impact on the actual polls just like every other 'game-changer' this campaign so far.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,133
    edited June 2024
    EPG said:

    The Sunak-Normandy error is an overdetermined problem. One angle I haven't seen much is that he was born in 1980. Much younger than other PMs. And for his entire adult life Britain's wars have been domestically controversial rather than nationally unifying. But none of these explains why some trusted advisor did not shout stop.

    I don't know, WWII was still heavily talk in schools in the 1990s and traditionally those big famous private schools are really big into CCF, Remembrance Day, naming all the alumni who died each year. There are other wars that are now distant memories and all rather obscure to younger people, but D-Day, to a 40+ year old, educated in the UK at a top school, nah, not buying it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    More In common are extending their fieldwork through today to report at 4 and see if there is any initial impact
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    HYUFD said:

    No UKIP got 12% in 2015 that is lower than Reform are polling in the latest polls
    The VI polling had them routinely higher than that though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    Terrible decision....
    Indeed. What was Starmer thinking?!
  • HYUFD said:

    No it isn't. You may not like it but if an ethnic minority PM loses by a landslide to a white male like Starmer the main parties will conclude the UK electorate are just not ready for a non white PM (even Obama of course lost the US white vote in 2008 and 2012, it was the massive black turnout for him, especially in 2012 and most of the Hispanic vote that got him elected and re elected but the UK Hindu population is far smaller than the US African American population).

    As you have said only those with direct family links to fighters in WW2 can truly emotionally feel it, that means on your argument white British almost certainly.

    In 10 or 20 years when WW2 is as far away as WW1 is now and all veterans are dead it may be less of an issue but for now it is
    When, not if, Sunak loses by a landslide it will have absolutely nothing to do with his ethnicity.

    It will be because he's shit at his job.
  • It does seem to be in the news now, so it’s a story getting a bit of cut through. I just put the telly on and they were talking about it being a mistake Rishi made.

    There might be the argument the papers didn’t ignore it, but the DDay coverage was more important to lead with (which makes the Daily M*rror utter disgrace as true to form).

    Don’t know if any newspapers other than Mirror and Guardian will mention it tonight though, especially if Penny puts in great performance in the debate, they will lead with that. Penny the Ange and Farage Slayer [insert Conan with sword graphic]
    It was the headline on BBC Radio 2 at 8am, I switched to Radio 5 in the car and it was about to be the subject of Nicky Campbell's phone in.

    That's landing in middle England, more influential than the newspapers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,165

    You know who wouldn't have thrown the election campaign by fucking off home early from D-Day?

    Liz Truss.

    Wasn't D Day organized by the Deep State?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    That just looks desperate and offering to stand down would completely undercut Rishi's "it's me or Keir Starmer line"

    That's not to stay a future Con/Ref alliance couldn't work but it would be more likely to be for 28/29 (something like the higher placed party in each seat gets a clear run)
    How can I put this, It's Keir Starmer.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951
    nico679 said:

    I was reading some of the comments on the DT and you have a point . But Sunak is really a poor campaigner and has scored a huge own goal . I still can’t believe he decided with advisors that it was okay to leave early and rush back to do a tv interview.

    This trashes so many aspects of the Tory campaign .
    I was David Jones driver for the whole of the 2010 campaign and I will never forgot when bigot gate came over the radio, David and I looked at each other and besides our mirth said that will finish Brown

    Yesterday, Sunak handed just as big a present to his opponents and whilst he was finished anyway he may have taken more of his colleagues down with him

    Brown's legacy 'bigot' - Sunak leaving the battle field prematurely in front of world leaders and the veterans is something he will never live down
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,667
    Is it possible that his pooled TV clip has actually made it worse? Again?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334
    FF43 said:

    I admit as someone who thought Johnson had realigned politics for a generation, I was surprised how quickly it all fell apart. So we shouldn't make the same assumption about Starmer going on for ever. Nevertheless the opposite assumption is also a mistake. My impression of Starmer is he is very ambitious for a lengthy period in office and will do his utmost to win the following election.

    So Starmer might crash and burn or he might be there for years and years. Not a particularly useful assessment for a site dedicated to political predictions, I accept.
    It depends how fundamentally broken you think British politics is.

    If Starmer can stabilise the ship, get into a generally broad based recovery, then he will stay in office for a while, and the Tories can go through their usual cats in a sack fun time in the first two terms, and maybe recover for a third term.

    If Starmer can not fix things and becomes rapidly unpopular, then the whole system will become unstable. You could then see a real breakdown in politics, with the failures of our Victorian political system leading to crisis and paralysis.

    Then Putinists like Farage might well get their Trump moment and the shit really hits the fan.

    As of now, it could go either way, but the innate conservatism of the system and the country may yet stabilise things. However the slightest thing, something like an early change of Monarch for example, or some epochal disaster, might also lead to a general questioning of our entire system.

    After the abject chaos of the Tory misrule, the country needs to settle down. Certainly Farage is the last thing we need at this point, and with no real party behind him, I really do question if Reform UK Ltd. is anything more than a sophisticated astrotrurf operation.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,932

    Latest candidate totals at approx 11am
    Lab 631 (-)
    Green (combined) - 613 (+6)
    Conservative - 593 (+35)
    Lib Dem - 566 (+5)
    Reform UK - 470 (+5)
    Workers Party - 242 (+8)
    Ind - 148 (+6)
    SDP - 125 (-)
    SNP - 57 (-)
    Plaid Cymru - 32 (-)

    Where do you get this from please? I'll need it later.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,222
    Scott_xP said:

    After all the money they spent rebuilding Longbenton... (I worked there)
    In 2022 they were talking of relocating all, or part, of the Freeman hospital onto Benton Park view.

    2027 is when they will all be out.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    edited June 2024

    Plenty of non-white Britons have ancestors who fought in WW2. There was a substantial British Indian army who fought in Asia but also in Europe. Also plenty of West Indians (who were all volunteers, none were conscripted). Plus of course mixed race Britons whose White British ancestors fought. If Sunak is disconnected from the "normal" British experience perhaps that's his parents' fault for sending him to an elitist school whose entire raison d'etre is to prevent mixing with "normal" British people?
    I suspect Sunak's real problem is a lack of empathy and curiosity. He seems to lack able advisors. It should also be evident that he is being lined up as the fall guy for the multiple governing failures of the British right.
    Yep. It is the billionaire hedge fund angle that is most damaging. Whether true or not the impression he gives is that he doesn't really have time or the inclination to become PM, doesn't really give a shit about the little people, and would rather move onto something less irritating.

    Of course the master campaigning stroke would be to find a relative who was one of, as you say, hundreds of thousands of Indian soldiers who fought alongside native Brits.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332

    Yep, I think age is certainly a factor, much more so than the ‘migrant’ rubbish.
    The 3 features in North British news with vox pops last night were D Day, the impending Taylor Swift-gasm and the Scotland football team prep; kids and young people in the latter two, oldies and late middle agers in the former.
    No, it’s the “migrant rubbish” as well. If Sunak had British parents and grandparents he would know in his DNA that D Day is big

    I bet even Corbyn gets it. For that reason

    This is not a criticism of PMs with foreign ancestry nor a reason for them not to hold office. As I’ve said coming from a new place can be a great advantage. A fresh perspective

    What it means is you need good advisors. Didn’t Blair have an advisor who would inform him of the concerns of the common people? What tv they watched? Etc? It’s that but for identity

    Sunak’s extra problem is that his wealth further alienates him from the average Brit
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,573

    Should be discharged this afternoon then weeks/months of recovery before I can resume a normal life.
    Oof! Best wishes for your recovery - as someone else has already said you're doing a fantastic job stepping into OGH's shoes, thank you.

    Forgive my ignorance - what happened?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951

    Should be discharged this afternoon then weeks/months of recovery before I can resume a normal life.
    Take it easy and be kind to yourself- also listen to your body.

    It is working for me

    All the best
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243

    You know who wouldn't have thrown the election campaign by fucking off home early from D-Day?

    ....
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,596
    edited June 2024

    More In common are extending their fieldwork through today to report at 4 and see if there is any initial impact

    Oh I bet Conservative Party HQ is thrilled about that!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Sunak looks like he is lying about considering skipping the whole thing altogether. Not good body language.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334

    When, not if, Sunak loses by a landslide it will have absolutely nothing to do with his ethnicity.

    It will be because he's shit at his job.
    It is not his heritage, it is his party.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Leon said:

    No, it’s the “migrant rubbish” as well. If Sunak had British parents and grandparents he would know in his DNA that D Day is big

    I bet even Corbyn gets it. For that reason

    This is not a criticism of PMs with foreign ancestry nor a reason for them not to hold office. As I’ve said coming from a new place can be a great advantage. A fresh perspective

    What it means is you need good advisors. Didn’t Blair have an advisor who would inform him of the concerns of the common people? What tv they watched? Etc? It’s that but for identity

    Sunak’s extra problem is that his wealth further alienates him from the average Brit
    This seems harsh and somewhat racist, Leon. You are better than that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,236
    I might be wrong but I don't think D-Daygate is as big a deal for serving personnel as it is for boomers who have never picked up a rifle.

    So all this talk of Ri$hi losing Richmond because of Catterick and Captain Mordaunt, RNR being unhorsed in Pompey is way overblown.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332

    Should be discharged this afternoon then weeks/months of recovery before I can resume a normal life.
    Yuk. Not fun. I’m impressed at your sangfroid in not moaning about it more
  • Scott_xP said:

    Is it possible that his pooled TV clip has actually made it worse? Again?

    Oh, I would think so.

    He's claimed that the itinerary was set before the GE was called. So he was already planning to skip half the event, because he wasn't planning to speak to ITV at that point.

    If he digs any deeper into this hold, he'll be down to the molten core.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    DM_Andy said:

    What I would be offering Farage right now if I were Sunak.

    Alliance between Con and Ref.
    Reform stand down in all Tory seats where the sitting MP is going for reelection (except Clacton)
    Tories stand down in all other Tory seats
    Everywhere else is 50/50.
    Sunak promises to resign immediately post election.
    Leader of a merged party to be elected with the MPs of both parties voting for a final two and the final vote being an electoral college of Tory members (50%) and Reform members (50%).

    They have about 4 hours to organise it.

    It's too late for any such deal, surely?

    Nomination papers are already in for c.600 Tories - any agreeing not to stand have to be withdrawn by 4pm today and require the witnessed signature of the candidate.

    Those Tory candidates who've just been nominated for (what should have been) a safe seat are not going to sign withdrawal papers to hand the seat to some numpty Reform candidate.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,283
    I think this is up there with the Bigoted Woman in terms of GE clusterf**ks. And at least with Mrs Duffy, Brown could be partially forgiven for thinking he wasn’t being recorded….
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    I hope we don't see a "Labour landslide is down to Rishi Sunak dissing our WW2 heritage" sentiment taking root.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,133

    I think this is up there with the Bigoted Woman in terms of GE clusterf**ks. And at least with Mrs Duffy, Brown could be partially forgiven for thinking he wasn’t being recorded….

    For Sunak / Tories, its even worse given that so far the campaign has been big on do your national service.
This discussion has been closed.