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What’s tonight’s debate going to this betting market? – politicalbetting.com

11718202223

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,869

    What could be driving this change?

    https://www.out.tv/nieuws/minder-dan-helft-amsterdamse-jongeren-accepteert-homoseksualiteit

    Research by the Dutch health service GGD shows that acceptance of LGBT+ people is dropping dramatically among young people. The figures from Amsterdam don't lie. Only 43% of young people say they accept homosexuality, compared to 69% two years ago. Among boys, only a third find homosexuality acceptable, while among girls, roughly half have this opinion.

    I think when people let the genies of xenophobia, Islamophobia and transphobia out of the bottle, it shouldn't be surprising if racism, antisemitism and homophobia receive a boost too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2024
    eek said:

    Your party hasn't so much lost it's way as been taking over (slowly) by a group of right wing clueless (often facist) loonies. Remember that prior to 2019 I voted Conservative - I was very much a centralist Tory but Bozo destroyed that in August - October 2019 and you amongst various others ignored the fact.

    I'm going to be blunt but the best thing for the current Tory party is for it to be completely destroyed so that a new centralist right wing party can be formed from it's remains...
    Except the current Tory government where the most senior figures in the Cabinet are Sunak, Hunt and Cameron IS the most centralist right wing party you are going to get in the UK anytime soon. Sunak toppled Johnson, Hunt was Johnson's opponent for the 2019 Tory leadership and Cameron led the Remain campaign in 2016 against Johnson's Leave campaign.

    Not to mention the fact that Farage is back as leader of a Reform party polling over 10%, if the Tories were replaced and taken over it would be by a Farage led hard right populist party NOT any new centrist party
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    viewcode said:

    This is a good point. Who would you suggest?
    I’ve no idea to be honest, I suspect most political journalists would have a tendency towards making a name for themselves. It’s a shame because a lot of YouTube people seem to be able to have incredibly interesting long form conversations with people that are compelling and hugely revealing. It must be possible to translate that into a political journalism context.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Foxy said:

    GPs are like retail pharmacies, they are private contractors doing NHS work as indeed are Spire Hospitals etc.

    That is still NHS work though, not private work.
    So it's like a special medical operation ? Dr Putin will see you now.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757

    That happened in 2019. Remember Rory the (by then ex) Tory's takedown of Bozza?

    Johnson is after all the most accomplished liar in public life – perhaps the best liar ever to serve as prime minister. Some of this may have been a natural talent – but a lifetime of practice and study has allowed him to uncover new possibilities which go well beyond all the classifications of dishonesty attempted by classical theorists like St Augustine. He has mastered the use of error, omission, exaggeration, diminution, equivocation and flat denial. He has perfected casuistry, circumlocution, false equivalence and false analogy. He is equally adept at the ironic jest, the fib and the grand lie; the weasel word and the half-truth; the hyperbolic lie, the obvious lie, and the bullshit lie – which may inadvertently be true.

    And as an alumnus of Vote Leave and BoJo's cabinets, it's pretty clear who Rishi learned to do politics from. Johnson may be gone, but it's going to take a while to purge his residue from the Conservative body.
    You are not concerned by the Labour Party misleading the nation by pretending that they will not raise tax? I would have thought that as a centrist this would concern you?

    (Great post from Rory by the way - spot on about Johnson)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    viewcode said:

    This is a good point. Who would you suggest?
    Was it Emily Maitlis who interviewed Prince Andrew?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612

    That was my point. I think so too. Starmer is that idealogical he would never entertain that. I find that personally baffling and a little concerning. The best leaders aren't purely ideology, they are practical.

    Wes Stretting has suggested numerous times that we should be using private providers to get down waiting lists etc, is Starmer ideologically opposed to that as well? Blair was comfortable with this approach.
    There is a world of difference between using private providers to provide NHS services and individuals using their personal wealth to queue-jump and go private.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,914
    edited June 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Except the current Tory government where the most senior figures in the Cabinet are Sunak, Hunt and Cameron IS the most centralist right wing party you are going to get in the UK anytime soon. Sunak toppled Johnson, Hunt was Johnson's opponent for the 2019 Tory leadership and Cameron led the Remain campaign in 2016 against Johnson's Leave campaign.

    Not to mention the fact that Farage is back as leader of a Reform party polling over 10%, if the Tories were replaced it would be by a Farage led hard right populist party NOT any new centrist party
    And goodbye to me and many other longstanding conservatives

    I will have no part in the Trump loving, vaccine and net zero denying far right party you seem to crave for
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    edited June 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Except the current Tory government where the most senior figures in the Cabinet are Sunak, Hunt and Cameron IS the most centralist right wing party you are going to get in the UK anytime soon. Sunak toppled Johnson, Hunt was Johnson's opponent for the 2019 Tory leadership and Cameron led the Remain campaign in 2016 against Johnson's Leave campaign.

    Not to mention the fact that Farage is back as leader of a Reform party polling over 10%, if the Tories were replaced it would be by a Farage led hard right populist party NOT any new centrist party
    But dig behind the current figure heads and who is going to replace Rishi in September / October this year. It isn't going to be a centralist it's going to be the more populist facist who wins the members vote.

    The reason why I'm happy to wear the "he loves Labour" hat on here is that I don't want to be within 1000 miles of any part of the blame for the next Tory party leader...

    Not that it actually matters because I said in 2019 that Bozo would be the last Tory PM ever although he didn't manage to last all 5 years (and got replaced twice) I see no reason to believe my prediction that the 2019 Government will be the last one ever formed by the Tory party.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    What the Left has wrought, part 8,923

    “Slightly stunned by this.

    A new UnHerd/Focaldata poll out today reveals that 54% of Britons aged 18-24 agree with the statement: "The state of Israel should not exist" 😶”

    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1798313387908313514?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024

    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,136
    Leon said:

    What the Left has wrought, part 8,923

    “Slightly stunned by this.

    A new UnHerd/Focaldata poll out today reveals that 54% of Britons aged 18-24 agree with the statement: "The state of Israel should not exist" 😶”

    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1798313387908313514?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Social media has rotted people's brains.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    ToryJim said:

    Any number of things, but over recent years there has been a more concerted push back on some of this stuff. That has to have an effect. I think also if you grow up in an era where x is not only acceptable but almost seen as another norm there has to be some attraction towards deliberate contrarianism. The danger is if LGBTQ activists double down on their wilder stuff in a climate where there’s less instantaneous acceptance that they could stretch the elastic too far and create a genuine backlash which probably wouldn’t be good for anyone.
    Or it’s Islam
  • And goodbye to me and many other longstanding conservatives

    I will have no part in the Trump loving, vaccine and net zero denying far right party you seem to crave for
    Well said and ditto.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757
    Foxy said:

    I am fully aware how private medicine works here, after all I do some!

    It has to be in a designated session within a job plan, which is not paid by the NHS. I have seen people fired for doing private work in NHS time, and if you are aware of it then you should report it to the NHS fraud department.
    I can tell you that it has been going on for years and I think you know that too, additionally doctors getting payments from companies for IP that should contractually be owned by the NHS. The latter may happen less than it used to but it did go on and many medics became even richer on it.

    Besides, if we accept your premise, how can medics claim to be overworked if they can also find time to work for someone else simultaneously? It defies logic, but it is a nice lie for the BMA to propagate through a gullible media.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Leon said:

    What the Left has wrought, part 8,923

    “Slightly stunned by this.

    A new UnHerd/Focaldata poll out today reveals that 54% of Britons aged 18-24 agree with the statement: "The state of Israel should not exist" 😶”

    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1798313387908313514?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    And that same 54% will be claiming to be part of the be kind and tolerant movement.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313

    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    RobD said:

    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    And that same 54% will be claiming to be part of the be kind and tolerant movement.
    And they will contort themselves to deny it’s anything to do with importing millions of anti semites, who, amazingly, turn out to be homophobic as well. Cf Amsterdam
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,232
    Andy_JS said:

    Social media has rotted people's brains.
    Well, it is available to all sides. You could use social media to make 18-24 year olds think that the Zionist Entity is a fabulous construction if you could be arsed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Leon said:

    And they will contort themselves to deny it’s anything to do with importing millions of anti semites, who, amazingly, turn out to be homophobic as well. Cf Amsterdam
    What you are telling me Queers for Palestine might not be tolerated in the way they think they will be...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Foxy said:

    GPs are like retail pharmacies, they are private contractors doing NHS work as indeed are Spire Hospitals etc.

    That is still NHS work though, not private work.
    And then you pay for your prescription in a pharmacy. And buy some paracetamol on the advice of the doctor but not prescription....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,551

    Many moons ago the company I worked for was involved in a public and acrimonious dispute with its main competitor. While the troops were keen to “stick it to them for their lies” wiser heads prevailed. “Two whores brawling in public will do none of us any good”.
    That is probably true in general, but as with Stormy Daniels, in this case one party has the receipts
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Tik Tok brain rot....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    eek said:

    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    The question was whether they would go private for a loved-one who had been on a waitlist for a long time. This was in the context of the questioner's relative who died while waiting for an operation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    edited June 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    @UKLabour

    Rishi Sunak lied to you about partygate.

    His election campaign is built on lies.

    He lied on NHS waiting lists. Small boats. The cost of living.

    You just can't trust him.

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1798326299620159887

    The 1PM News eviscerated him. Gus O'Donnell was lethal. Labour also have a very effective AD agency. The next series of ads should be interesting. I suspect the Tories are doing it in-house. I can't think their PPB of a couple of nights ago was done by an agency
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,171

    You are not concerned by the Labour Party misleading the nation by pretending that they will not raise tax? I would have thought that as a centrist this would concern you?

    (Great post from Rory by the way - spot on about Johnson)
    Don't like that either. Any more than I like the pretendy tax cuts the government has done over the last few months.

    I'd much rather have someone being honest here- tax rises and spending cuts are both incoming to some degree, whoever forms the next government. For decades, we've demanded too much and paid too little. But no party actually wanting to win has dared say that out loud. That is a "everyone does it", and voters are complicit in voting for it.

    But the Sunak-Johnson approach is worse.
  • novanova Posts: 748

    Interesting discussion on WATO on the £2,000 claim.

    I didn’t watch last nights debate - but from their report it did not sound like Rishi made the “Treasury numbers” claim. That was made by a junior minister on the radio this morning.

    Good interviews with Gus O’Donnell - “they both do it, I wish they didn’t” and Andrew Mitchell put the Tory case well. Report is made up from number of independent sources, some of the assumptions we took were conservative, no it wasn’t signed off by the Treasury.

    When asked about Labour personal attacks on Sunak on TikTok, Emily Thornberry’s defence of them was “I haven’t seen them”.

    Pretty sure Sunak did make the claim.

    When Starmer was challenging it, I'm sure Sunak said he was criticising independent civil servants.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    British Paras jumping into Normandy are greeted by French customs 🤣
    [PHOTO]
    Plus ca change.
    #dday80


    https://x.com/jeromestarkey/status/1798338553266741541
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    The Spectator has been running some figures on the Tories published Tax plans

    On Sunak's maths, it works out as £3,000 tax rise per household.

    https://t.co/p7wwWkCtgQ

    And remember this is the Spectator who are saying this - it should be impossible for the Tory party to upset the Spectator but Rishi has managed it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    What you are telling me Queers for Palestine might not be tolerated in the way they think they will be...
    This is what Pim Fortuyn foresaw, and he was murdered for his pains

    If you import Islam you import Islamic values. It’s a fact. That’s fine if you like Islamic values. If you are Jewish, gay, or a woman, maybe less fine. It always starts with the Jews
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,051
    eek said:

    But dig behind the current figure heads and who is going to replace Rishi in September / October this year. It isn't going to be a centralist it's going to be the more populist facist who wins the members vote.

    The reason why I'm happy to wear the "he loves Labour" hat on here is that I don't want to be within 1000 miles of any part of the blame for the next Tory party leader...

    Not that it actually matters because I said in 2019 that Bozo would be the last Tory PM ever although he didn't manage to last all 5 years (and got replaced twice) I see no reason to believe my prediction that the 2019 Government will be the last one ever formed by the Tory party.
    Re your first paragraph, has anyone actually done any digging on this? There seems to be a generally accepted opinion that someone of the harder right is going to be next Tory leader but is that based on facts?

    For example if you took various seat levels for the Tories, looked at who would be left are we certain that they are majority to the right? As far as I know (and I know nothing, about anything) it could actually be that there would be a much greater number of one nation centrists who might be able to lock out the last two candidates from their wing.

    Just because the remaining seats would by definition be stronger Tory seats it doesn’t necessarily follow that their MPs are further to the right.

    If there ended up 160 Tories and 120 were one nation then they could ensure one of their tribe takes over. The same is true of course for the result being the other way. Like I said, unless someone has really delved into this we are just speculating.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    edited June 2024
    boulay said:

    Re your first paragraph, has anyone actually done any digging on this? There seems to be a generally accepted opinion that someone of the harder right is going to be next Tory leader but is that based on facts?

    For example if you took various seat levels for the Tories, looked at who would be left are we certain that they are majority to the right? As far as I know (and I know nothing, about anything) it could actually be that there would be a much greater number of one nation centrists who might be able to lock out the last two candidates from their wing.

    Just because the remaining seats would by definition be stronger Tory seats it doesn’t necessarily follow that their MPs are further to the right.

    If there ended up 160 Tories and 120 were one nation then they could ensure one of their tribe takes over. The same is true of course for the result being the other way. Like I said, unless someone has really delved into this we are just speculating.
    Look at the last 2 leadership elections - the more right wing populist candidate wins the members vote.

    Now it's possible that the elected MPs may be able to ensure only 2 sane candidates go through to the members - I just don't see that being the case...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757
    eek said:

    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,232
    edited June 2024
    Forget it. Quotes are fucked. Can't be arsed to unravel them.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757
    eek said:

    Look at the last 2 leadership elections - the more right wing populist candidate wins the members vote.
    Before that Cameron v Davis?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Do British voters support or oppose Rishi Sunak's plan to increase the income tax threshold at which pensioners will start paying income tax? (28-29 May)

    Support 49%
    Oppose 17%
    Neither 26%
    Don't know 9%…..

    Influence of Sunak's Pension Tax Plan (28-29 May):

    More voters aged 55-64 (20%) and 65+ (25%) say they are now MORE LIKELY to vote Conservative than say they are less likely to do so (6% and 15%).

    Among 18-24 year olds, 37% say they are now LESS LIKELY to vote Conservative


    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1798341594787066216

    Since a negligible number of 18-24 year olds were going to vote Con in the first place….

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024
    Both parties are lying. There will have to be tax rises or public service cuts or both. The only way that changes if return levels of growth we haven't seen for 20 years. That would require huge and rapid increases in productivity in both the private and public sector. And neither party appears to have any real plans on how to achieve such a thing.

    Zero talk about what AI will do positively and negatively for the workforce. Zero talk about what we do about China stealing IP then flooding Western markets with products that are artificially discounted by the state to undercut existing industries etc etc etc

    Instead we are stuck in the doom loop of you are lying, no you are lying.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    It’s incredible how many people are still saying it was a set up and she worked for Reform.
    As pointed out by @Foxy yesterday, she has bought millions of pounds worth of advertising for her porn site for the princely sum of £1.79*






    *(the cost of a banana milkshake at McDonald's apparently)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    edited June 2024

    Before that Cameron v Davis?
    and
    a) a desire to get elected
    b) didn't Davis complete screw up his conference speech.

    Also the Conservative party of 2005 was a far more broad church than the post Brexit one, Brexit sent a lot of centralists Tories either elsewhere or to quit politics..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    Both parties are lying.

    Anyone would think we were having an election.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Have you now subscribed?
    He and thousands of others no doubt. She will be laughing all the way to the bank.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272

    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757
    Chris said:

    No - he presented this as an estimate by independent civil servants. That's a flat lie.

    Here's what the director of the IFS says:
    "The £2,000 per working household that the Conservatives are suggesting that Labour is committed to is not independently arrived at or verified. It has been calculated based on Conservative party assumptions about Labour’s spending plans."

    Disappointing that so many PB Tories have no more acquaintance with the truth than Sunak.
    I have not voted Tory in the last two elections, so do not assume I am a "PB Tory and I will try not to assume you are a PB tw*t.

    However, when accusations of lying start flying around I would like someone to explain to me whether they think Labour are being honest about not putting taxes up. If you wish to use the word "lie" then I suggest they use it carefully. Labour are being highly dishonest about their intentions. Anyone who believes otherwise is an idiot.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131

    He and thousands of others no doubt. She will be laughing all the way to the bank.
    It would be better if it was the clink.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Seems they are in real panic mode
    So if Labour lied and said Mr Sunak liked barbecued kittens for elevenses* you'd say the Tories were panicking when they complained?

    Just checking.

    *Which he does not, and never has done.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    ToryJim said:

    Well novelty is always attractive. The fact that after a decade and a half nobody has found a way to make them work properly is why viewing is down. Nobody wants an hour long sound bite off with everyone moderator included looking for a gotcha moment.
    Agreed. I don't know why we don't adopt the US model: one head-to-head, one 'town hall' and one Q&A. And make them longer and give the moderator the facility to turn off the mikes.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    Carnyx said:

    So if Labour lied and said Mr Sunak liked barbecued kittens for elevenses* you'd say the Tories were panicking when they complained?

    Just checking.

    *Which he does not, and never has done.
    ** he has them for supper...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757
    Roger said:

    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    That is what our sainted medical profession encourages people to do. And yes, if it was my loved one, yes I would.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    Carnyx said:

    So if Labour lied and said Mr Sunak liked barbecued kittens for elevenses* you'd say the Tories were panicking when they complained?

    Just checking.

    *Which he does not, and never has done.
    It's more of a lunchtime dish.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Both parties are lying. There will have to be tax rises or public sector cuts or both. The only way that changes if return levels of growth we haven't seen for 20 years. That would require huge and rapid increases in productivity in both the private and public sector. And neither party appears to have any real plans on how to achieve such a thing.

    Zero talk about what AI will do positively and negatively for the workforce. Zero talk about what we do about China stealing IP then flooding Western markets with products that are artificially discounted by the state to undercut existing industries.

    Instead we are stuck in the doom loop of you are lying, no you are lying.

    With Labour, the high probability is that with a Labour government, there will be a flight of money to tax-friendlier regimes. The notion that capital is a terrible thing comes with a slap up side the head - that there will be less cash for every single pet project. Most notably, the NHS.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024
    Particularly given the recent record of the source, Caveat Emptor....

    It is a story that hacks are gossiping about in private, the story has been going around in legal circles for years and Guido hears that more than one newspaper is only now trying to stand the story up. Labour’s senior campaign operatives are well aware of the story and are said to have prepared a counter-strategy if it breaks during the election campaign.

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/05/unreported-affair-hacks-are-gossiping-about-privately/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    If you thought the Tory dossier was dodgy….read on….

    🧵
    Here's my primer on that £2k "Labour tax bombshell" @rishisunak was going on abt.
    Warning: this is far more convoluted/bizarre/intriguing than u might have expected.
    & neither Lab nor Con come out of it v well.
    But let's begin with a proviso:
    WE DON'T HAVE THE MANIFESTOS YET!


    https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1798343959607193764
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2024
    eek said:

    Look at the last 2 leadership elections - the more right wing populist candidate wins the members vote.

    Now it's possible that the elected MPs may be able to ensure only 2 sane candidates go through to the members - I just don't see that being the case...
    And Tory MPs then removed Truss as they had effectively removed Johnson and now CCHQ is imposing 3 Sunak loyalists on every Tory Association where a Tory MP is not standing again so members don't get the chance to pick a Boris or Truss supporter as their candidate.

    CCHQ are effectively stitching up the next leadership election so that Sunak loyalists form the vast majority of the largely bluewall Tory MPs left. Indeed I could well see the final 2 sent to the membership being Barclay and Tugendhat (Barclay the Leaver but both Sunak loyalists now), Braverman and Badenoch and Patel and Jenrick wouldn't have the MP support to get to the last 2, Mordaunt might well lose her seat and was only 3rd last time
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,232
    Nigelb said:


    Any negotiation is pointless until Putin is obliged to abandon his ambition to restore the Russian empire.
    Otherwise all you're negotiating is a pause.

    That's a meaningless condition because VVP could and would abandon his abandonment when convenient or necessary. Also, VVP's inevitably more bellicose successor wouldn't be bound by it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    It's more of a lunchtime dish.
    And even then, only an amuse bouche ahead of the baby....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    It would be better if it was the clink.
    Don’t think Only Fans takes coins.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The last one purchased at Chesterfield was funded by a Charity cost £550k at the time but this was a top of the range thig from memory
    Indeed. I remember a fundraiser for a million to buy one in the 1980s, so they’re half the cash price they were 40 years ago.

    I wonder how much the healthcare system has worked out that testing and imaging has got an awful lot cheaper, to the point that anyone turning up to see a consultant should probably have had both an MRI of the affected area, and a full blood panel, by the time they actually see the consultant.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    HYUFD said:

    And Tory MPs then removed Truss as they had effectively removed Johnson and now CCHQ is imposing 3 Sunak loyalists on every Tory Association where a Tory MP is not standing again so members don't get the chance to pick a Boris or Truss supporter as their candidate.

    CCHQ are effectively stitching up the next leadership election so that Sunak loyalists form the vast majority of the largely bluewall Tory MPs left. Indeed I could well see the final 2 sent to the membership being Barclay and Tugendhat (Barclay the Leaver but both Sunak loyalists now), Braverman and Badenoch and Patel and Jenrick wouldn't have the MP support to get to the last 2, Mordaunt might well lose her seat and was only 3rd last time
    Or - saving the membership from themselves.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Spinny spin spin 😆 an example of which is “after debate pasting” where the debate polling now in and all its detail is giving a clear win to Starmer.

    That’s the most ugly bad for democracy thing about these hour long blip debates, it’s about who gets to the microphone first to declare victory and who wins the brawl in the spinny spin spin room.

    There was very little there to actually help voters.

    Starmer shared very little about actual policy and what he would actually do, and just about everything Sunak said, from fall in NHS lists, fall in boat crossing, Labours tax plans, was all made up bare faced lying.
    Again, you make a good point. The poll thing was unfortunate for Labour too – YouGov were first out of the blocks and showed a Sunak win (albeit narrow but a win is a win). Two polls showed a clear Starmer victory. But, because YouGov were first they got all the headlines. Not fair but that's the way it is: speed is everything!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Leon said:

    What the Left has wrought, part 8,923

    “Slightly stunned by this.

    A new UnHerd/Focaldata poll out today reveals that 54% of Britons aged 18-24 agree with the statement: "The state of Israel should not exist" 😶”

    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1798313387908313514?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Only 35% of 25-34s say the same though
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131

    With Labour, the high probability is that with a Labour government, there will be a flight of money to tax-friendlier regimes. The notion that capital is a terrible thing comes with a slap up side the head - that there will be less cash for every single pet project. Most notably, the NHS.
    Given the likes of Blair and Mandelson are involved behind the scenes, I can see the first 5 years being like New Labour, where they raid the pension pots, windfall taxes, tax on motorists, to raise some revenue for all the pet projects, but still not close to balancing the books. We also know that this "wealth fund' is really just a massive centralise PFI scheme, so a lot of extra debt will shoved off the books. The second term is when it could go off the rails.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    Leon said:

    What the Left has wrought, part 8,923

    “Slightly stunned by this.

    A new UnHerd/Focaldata poll out today reveals that 54% of Britons aged 18-24 agree with the statement: "The state of Israel should not exist" 😶”

    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1798313387908313514?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    There are various ultra Orthodox strains who believe the same
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,136
    "Who is Dick Schoof? 8 things to know about the new Dutch PM

    Nicknamed ‘Tricky Dick’, the new head of the Netherlands’ far-right-led government is not afraid of bending the rules."

    https://www.politico.eu/article/who-is-dick-schoof-8-things-to-know-about-the-new-dutch-pm/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Farooq said:

    A gentle reminder that any given Muslim is far, far more likely to be the victim of a hate crime than to perpetrate one.

    The deliberate insinuation that Muslims are all bad is gross bigotry, yet oddly tolerated in certain circles.

    Where would we be without painfully meaningless, boring left platitudes designed to avoid the fucking obvious? Congrats on getting yours in so quick
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    And goodbye to me and many other longstanding conservatives

    I will have no part in the Trump loving, vaccine and net zero denying far right party you seem to crave for
    I did vote for Sunak last time and Remain, I am hardly in that category but I am now on the moderate wing of today's Tory membership and I also never voted for Farage's party even in the EU Parliament elections
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    eek said:

    But dig behind the current figure heads and who is going to replace Rishi in September / October this year. It isn't going to be a centralist it's going to be the more populist facist who wins the members vote.

    The reason why I'm happy to wear the "he loves Labour" hat on here is that I don't want to be within 1000 miles of any part of the blame for the next Tory party leader...

    Not that it actually matters because I said in 2019 that Bozo would be the last Tory PM ever although he didn't manage to last all 5 years (and got replaced twice) I see no reason to believe my prediction that the 2019 Government will be the last one ever formed by the Tory party.
    If the latter was true the next government from the right would likely be a merged Tory and Reform party or a coalition between the 2 if we got PR
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2024
    nova said:

    Even if hadn't been made up, it makes it nearer to £250 per tax payer - and that's before you take into account that higher rate tax payers will be paying more, and that not all taxes come from individuals.

    So, you're probably talking nearer £100 a year for an actual "average" earner - and compared to the actual tax rises already baked in with the freeze on allowances for the next few years - it wouldn't even be the biggest tax rise they'd face.
    I've mentioned it before but there's not really scope to increase tax on higher earners due to student loans (yet another reason they're bad).

    If someone is on £50k their marginal takehome rate could be 39%: 40% Income tax, 2% NI, 9% Undergrad, 6% Postgrad, 5% pension (sal sac).

    I know a lawyer earning just above £100k whose takehome rate is just 19% with the minimum pension contribution! They take home just 16p in every additional pound their employer pays due to E'ers NI - every day they work the Government claims 7 of the 8 hours.

    You could maybe find another couple of percent, but while the older generations don't have tax rates that high, the young are getting absolutely shafted by them to the extend that rises aren't really viable.

    Ultimately the scope for increasing taxes lies within wealth taxes, land tax, and the less productive.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Roger said:

    There are various ultra Orthodox strains who believe the same
    Although, their objection is often more the current state of Israel shouldn't exist as it is not Jewish enough.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973
    Respect to the Spectator for running the same methodology on Conservative plans. £3,000 apparently. Woops.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024
    Chameleon said:

    I've mentioned it before but there's not really scope to increase tax on higher earners due to student loans (yet another reason they're bad).

    If someone is on £50k their marginal takehome rate will be 39%: 40% Income tax, 2% NI, 9% Undergrad, 6% Postgrad, 5% pension (sal sac).

    I know a lawyer earning just above £100k whose takehome rate is just 19% with the minimum pension contribution! They take home just 16p in every additional pound their employer pays due to E'ers NI - every day they work the Government claims 7 of the 8 hours.

    You could maybe find another couple of percent, but while the older generations don't have tax rates that high, the young are getting absolutely shafted by them to the extend that rises aren't really viable.

    The cliff edges at £60k and £100k are absolutely stupid and counterproductive. There is zero point earning just over £100k, you negotiate other benefits in kind e.g working less, unless your employer is offering significantly over £100k.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    If this thread is going to cross 2000 replies, hurrah!

    Friday night is Farage night it would seem - that might get some more viewers than last night's performance.

    As others have said, mid to late June presents an embarrassment of riches for those seeking entertainment - Ascot, Glastonbury, Euro 2024, the General Election, decorating a spare bedroom to name but five.

    That's why we've not had a GE in an even number year since 1992 (and that was in April). 1970 was the last "summer" election in an even numbered year - that didn't end well for a Government defending a large majority (in seats if not votes).

    I think it could have been box office – as Farage, Angela and Penny are all entertaining figures. Sadly some quarterwit at the Beeb didn't even manage the most basic check of TV schedules. Had they done so, they would have spotted that both England AND Scotland are playing football at exactly the same time.

    Amateurish scheduling, a real shame.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    This isn’t 2016 .

    Some are saying Labour shouldn’t try and refute the tax claims as it draws attention to them . The difference now is the public are more likely to think the Tories are liars so Sunaks claim was probably on shaky ground anyway . And Sunak repeated the lie throughout the debate .

    Starmer decided to lay a trap for Sunak and Labour will now use the liar tag for the next month to attack him .

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    aa
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed. I remember a fundraiser for a million to buy one in the 1980s, so they’re half the cash price they were 40 years ago.

    I wonder how much the healthcare system has worked out that testing and imaging has got an awful lot cheaper, to the point that anyone turning up to see a consultant should probably have had both an MRI of the affected area, and a full blood panel, by the time they actually see the consultant.
    High throughput through the newer machines is even easier - they tolerate patient movement more etc.

    Given the cost of a private MRI is a couple of hundred pounds....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Odessa is so beautiful. And yet the Potemkin steps are fenced off with barbed wire, and all the palaces on the seafront have boarded up windows. And sandbags surround the statues

    And there’s no mains power

    I am afraid to tell you, PB, what this means when my phone runs out. Yes. Imagine
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660

    Particularly given the recent record of the source, Caveat Emptor....

    It is a story that hacks are gossiping about in private, the story has been going around in legal circles for years and Guido hears that more than one newspaper is only now trying to stand the story up. Labour’s senior campaign operatives are well aware of the story and are said to have prepared a counter-strategy if it breaks during the election campaign.

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/05/unreported-affair-hacks-are-gossiping-about-privately/

    I believe there are a good number of superinjunctions in place to stop people openly talking about certain indiscretions and misdemeanours...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757
    HYUFD said:

    I did vote for Sunak last time and Remain, I am hardly in that category but I am now on the moderate wing of today's Tory membership and I also never voted for Farage's party even in the EU Parliament elections
    Despite those mitigating factors you do remain the liar in chief's one true loyal apologist; the man that used Brexit for his own personal aggrandisement (despite not believing in it) and was IMO singlehandedly responsible for the Conservative Party's loss of credibility with the electorate
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Roger said:

    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2024

    Despite those mitigating factors you do remain the liar in chief's one true loyal apologist; the man that used Brexit for his own personal aggrandisement (despite not believing in it) and was IMO singlehandedly responsible for the Conservative Party's loss of credibility with the electorate
    If Boris was not leader in 2019 the Conservatives would not have got the majority they needed by winning the redwall seats required to beat Corbyn and get Brexit done. It would have been 2017 rehashed at best in 2019
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    So it's like a special medical operation ? Dr Putin will see you now.

    So it's like a special medical operation ? Dr Putin will see you now.
    Can be a difficult situation when things go wrong; the contractor isn’t done for malpractice as such, but for breach of contract.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272

    Although, their objection is often more the current state of Israel shouldn't exist as it is not Jewish enough.
    That and more theological reasons. It's an interesting study. Certainly more so than how many 18/24 year olds think so
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    nico679 said:

    This isn’t 2016 .

    Some are saying Labour shouldn’t try and refute the tax claims as it draws attention to them . The difference now is the public are more likely to think the Tories are liars so Sunaks claim was probably on shaky ground anyway . And Sunak repeated the lie throughout the debate .

    Starmer decided to lay a trap for Sunak and Labour will now use the liar tag for the next month to attack him .

    It's not necessarily an either or, The public can think Labour and the Conservatives are both a bunch of lying gits.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Farooq said:

    Well, we'd probably live in a fascist hellscape created by people like you.
    Serious question. What do you think happens to a liberal society if you import millions of illiberal people, and it turns out they don’t assimilate, and instead they persist in those values?

    I can tell you. What you get is an increasingly less liberal society. More hostile to Jews and gays, and - in the end - not great for women. And that is exactly what we are seeing

    Which part of this do you still dispute?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    I believe there are a good number of superinjunctions in place to stop people openly talking about certain indiscretions and misdemeanours...
    Hows your campaign going ?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    Sam Coates Sky
    @SamCoatesSky
    ·
    11m
    There’s a new Sky / YouGov poll coming at 5pm

    It’s interesting - but note it’s done under new methodology.

    So read the full story on our website to see the comparisons of old and new.

    And for why they’ve done it, look here:

    From memory I think it's going to end up with a lower Labour % with Lib Dems higher and (possibly) Tory votes lower with Reform higher.

    The latter may not be that truthful / accurate though so any drop / increase in Tory votes probably needs a bit of salt with it.

    Reality is this YouGov poll is more a fresh starting point for subsequent ones than a continuation of the historic ones.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    I think it could have been box office – as Farage, Angela and Penny are all entertaining figures. Sadly some quarterwit at the Beeb didn't even manage the most basic check of TV schedules. Had they done so, they would have spotted that both England AND Scotland are playing football at exactly the same time.

    Amateurish scheduling, a real shame.
    If only the technology existed to allow people to watch the debate at some later time of their choosing!
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,750
    Farooq said:

    Yes. You won't be able to post here. Then we won't know whether you're dead or merely dead inside.
    Also the Russians probably know who and where you are if you're using it so close to the front.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2024
    @tomorrowsmps
    🔵 I hear that the urgency for the Conservatives to find a candidate in every Btitish seat is so great that they are now contacting people who recently resigned from the approved candidates' list to see if they might nonetheless stand in a hopeless seat somewhere.
    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798335719645335579
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,757

    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    Indeed it is one of the prime hypocrisy of the left that makes me want to vomit. They love to attack people who pay for their children's education, but not those who buy a house in a good catchment area. They will boast about their latest holiday in some exotic place while wanting more taxes on things that they don't use. They strongly believe that tax rates should be radically increased just above the salary they get for their safe public sector, but let's not tax those public sector pensions that give generous taxpayer guaranteed pay outs for life.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    It would be better if it was the clink.
    It could be both!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    The cliff edges at £60k and £100k are absolutely stupid and counterproductive. There is zero point earning just over £100k, you negotiate other benefits in kind e.g working less, unless your employer is offering significantly over £100k.
    Yep - we have assistant managers and directors going part time/4 days fairly regularly. It's just a ridiculous policy to push the most productive to spend less time working.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    HYUFD said:

    @tomorrowsmps
    🔵 I hear that the urgency for the Conservatives to find a candidate in every Btitish seat is so great that they are now contacting people who recently resigned from the approved candidates' list to see if they might nonetheless stand in a hopeless seat somewhere.
    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798335719645335579

    I'll second you HYUFD
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    eek said:

    Sam Coates Sky
    @SamCoatesSky
    ·
    11m
    There’s a new Sky / YouGov poll coming at 5pm

    It’s interesting - but note it’s done under new methodology.

    So read the full story on our website to see the comparisons of old and new.

    And for why they’ve done it, look here:

    From memory I think it's going to end up with a lower Labour % with Lib Dems higher and (possibly) Tory votes lower with Reform higher.

    The latter may not be that truthful / accurate though so any drop / increase in Tory votes probably needs a bit of salt with it.

    Reality is this YouGov poll is more a fresh starting point for subsequent ones than a continuation of the historic ones.

    Hmm. Don't think changing methodology just when an election arrives is a good idea for a pollster. Overall accuracy should be provided by various pollsters doing what they do with obviously similar underlying data.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484
    eek said:

    Sam Coates Sky
    @SamCoatesSky
    ·
    11m
    There’s a new Sky / YouGov poll coming at 5pm

    It’s interesting - but note it’s done under new methodology.

    So read the full story on our website to see the comparisons of old and new.

    And for why they’ve done it, look here:

    From memory I think it's going to end up with a lower Labour % with Lib Dems higher and (possibly) Tory votes lower with Reform higher.

    The latter may not be that truthful / accurate though so any drop / increase in Tory votes probably needs a bit of salt with it.

    Reality is this YouGov poll is more a fresh starting point for subsequent ones than a continuation of the historic ones.

    That's some way to word a caveat. Is he trying to Ratner their own poll?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    Indeed it is one of the prime hypocrisy of the left that makes me want to vomit. They love to attack people who pay for their children's education, but not those who buy a house in a good catchment area. They will boast about their latest holiday in some exotic place while wanting more taxes on things that they don't use. They strongly believe that tax rates should be radically increased just above the salary they get for their safe public sector, but let's not tax those public sector pensions that give generous taxpayer guaranteed pay outs for life.
    And of course there is mateism. Everyone knows someone who can get them things or places the rest of us cant get.
    Do we stop that too ?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    The Tory Party Chairman’s attempt at inserting himself into a safe southern seat is going about as well as you’d expect.

    https://x.com/joepike/status/1798317506870100428?s=46

    He’s such an imbecile.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    aa

    High throughput through the newer machines is even easier - they tolerate patient movement more etc.

    Given the cost of a private MRI is a couple of hundred pounds....
    I wonder what the economics looks like of hiring (importing) maybe a couple of thousand MRI operators, and a couple of thousand lab technicians, to offer a 24/7 walk-in MRI and blood panel service to anyone currently awaiting a consultant’s appointment?

    It could potentially make a big difference to overall treatment time, as well as the waiting list, if the consultant has everything available to them in advance of the first consultation with the patient. The copy sent to the GP might even spot something else at the same time.

    When the waiting list clears, offer the same service to anyone over 60, 50, 40, as a screener for all sorts of things that cost the NHS a fortune and have poor outcomes when spotted late.
This discussion has been closed.