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What’s tonight’s debate going to this betting market? – politicalbetting.com

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  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Good on Corbyn telling Galloway where to go:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/05/general-election-labour-conservatives-sunak-boris-johnson-tv-debate-tax-plans-d-day?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with:block-66605fde8f08fb1be3410928#block-66605fde8f08fb1be3410928
    Corbyn said he had not been tempted to join with George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain – which is seeking to mount a challenge to Labour on the left and on the issue of Gaza – saying there were differences of social policy. “He probably thinks I’m too woke,” he added.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Chameleon said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
    Sorry but with Making Tax Digital and the fact that most banks now have apps that allow you to tag payments in seconds I do not see a quarterly VAT return as that complex especially as flat rate turnover based options are available.

    And removing the £90,000 barrier by making it completely unavoidsable would provide a lot of companies with an incentive to work a bit harder rather than stopping as their turnover hits £7,000 for the month...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    If you thought the Tory dossier was dodgy….read on….

    🧵
    Here's my primer on that £2k "Labour tax bombshell" @rishisunak was going on abt.
    Warning: this is far more convoluted/bizarre/intriguing than u might have expected.
    & neither Lab nor Con come out of it v well.
    But let's begin with a proviso:
    WE DON'T HAVE THE MANIFESTOS YET!


    https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1798343959607193764

    The problem for Labour is the circle of ultra low, Tory taxation (since the autumn statement last year) cannot be squared with improved public services. Rishi on the other hand can explain away low taxes (since last year) because he is not obliged to improve public services. In reality he would be quite content to return to Osborne austerity.

    Labour are thus lying, the Conservatives are not. Mind you I quite like well funded public services so I won't be voting Conservative.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    DM_Andy said:

    Good on Corbyn telling Galloway where to go:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/05/general-election-labour-conservatives-sunak-boris-johnson-tv-debate-tax-plans-d-day?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with:block-66605fde8f08fb1be3410928#block-66605fde8f08fb1be3410928

    Corbyn said he had not been tempted to join with George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain – which is seeking to mount a challenge to Labour on the left and on the issue of Gaza – saying there were differences of social policy. “He probably thinks I’m too woke,” he added.

    People front of Judea vs the Judean People's Front....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    DM_Andy said:

    Good on Corbyn telling Galloway where to go:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/05/general-election-labour-conservatives-sunak-boris-johnson-tv-debate-tax-plans-d-day?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with:block-66605fde8f08fb1be3410928#block-66605fde8f08fb1be3410928

    Corbyn said he had not been tempted to join with George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain – which is seeking to mount a challenge to Labour on the left and on the issue of Gaza – saying there were differences of social policy. “He probably thinks I’m too woke,” he added.

    'I thought we were the Popular Front...'
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    Chameleon said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
    It really is quite funny how the line from the Sunak loyalists has changed over the last 24 hours.

    Last night:
    "Ha ha! Sunak has really won the debate and nailed Starmer with the £2000 tax thing!"

    Today:
    "Oh really all this talk about whether Sunak was lying is a distraction from the real issues."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited June 5
    Chris said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
    It really is quite funny how the line from the Sunak loyalists has changed over the last 24 hours.

    Last night:
    "Ha ha! Sunak has really won the debate and nailed Starmer with the £2000 tax thing!"

    Today:
    "Oh really all this talk about whether Sunak was lying is a distraction from the real issues."
    Well i didn't say that....i didn't watch the debate, so made no comment on who won / lost, only i thought Starmers point blank refusal to ever use private healthcare.

    My line has been rather consistent on this for ages, all the way back to Truss being wrong as looking at it from wrong end of the telescope, Sunak was wrong about NI++ scheme etc. the key problem the UK has is productivity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Way offtopic, an interesting story coming out of the US, a potential conglomerate looking to base a stock exchange in Taxes, following on from dozens of companies relocating there from NY and CA in the past few years.

    https://thepostmillennial.com/blackrock-citadel-to-launch-texas-stock-exchange-to-rival-nasdaq-nyse

    A new group called The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is set to start a new national stock exchange to challenge the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

    A spokesperson for Citadel Securities, one of the companies backing the effort with BlackRock, told the Wall Street Journal that the group has raised about $120 million and plans to file registration documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) later this year.

    The TXSE is planning to begin in 2025 and host its first listing in 2026. The exchange is looking to compete for primary and dual listings of exchange-traded products.

    The group is aiming to capitalize on disaffection in the market regarding increasing compliance costs at Nasdaq and NYSE, and newer regulations including those that set diversity targets for boards of Nasdaq companies. Some have called the new alternative an “anti-woke” exchange.

    According to The Journal, dozens of companies are moving to states with more favorable regulatory and taxation policies, which has made Texas home to more Fortune 500 companies than any other state.

    In years past there had been dozens of regional stock exchanges outside of New York, but most were shut down or acquired. The Boston Stock Exchange, the Chicago Stock Exchange, and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange were folded into the NYSE and Nasdaq in the past two decades.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Tory Party Chairman’s attempt at inserting himself into a safe southern seat is going about as well as you’d expect.

    https://x.com/joepike/status/1798317506870100428?s=46

    He’s such an imbecile.

    That is absurd. I have met Holden and he is a capable politician but that is totally undemocratic.

    CCHQ can just about get away with imposing 3 Sunak loyalists on Associations with no local candidate as they have been doing as at least the membership locally get a choice of those 3.

    However for CCHQ to impose just 1 candidate on an Association removes even that choice
    He was a great constituency MP (mine).

    Then his seat was abolished for this election and he almost immediately gave up entirely. Showing he has no sense of duty; he was only ever doing it out of political cynicism.

    Unimpressed to put it mildly.
    He is also taking a risk, the Basildon part of the Basildon and Billericay seat was Labour in the Blair years and Teresa Gorman only held Billericay narrowly in 1997.

    Labour could win it on current polls, especially if a big Reform vote and LD tactical voting. The only truly safe seats in Essex at the moment even on a worst case scenario are Maldon, Rayleigh and Wickford, Witham and Brentwood and Ongar (and probably Essex NW and Epping Forest)
    I always think back to the hapless Iain Sproat, who chicken ran from Aberdeen South to Roxburgh & Berwickshire in 1983... only for the former to be narrowly held by the Tories and the latter lost.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    They would be stupid, and if they refused it on behalf of their family a selfish opinionated prick.

    What do you think of the medical staff that facilitate it, whilst simultaneously telling the world they are overworked and underpaid (guffaw)?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    A gentle reminder that any given Muslim is far, far more likely to be the victim of a hate crime than to perpetrate one.

    The deliberate insinuation that Muslims are all bad is gross bigotry, yet oddly tolerated in certain circles.

    Where would we be without painfully meaningless, boring left platitudes designed to avoid the fucking obvious? Congrats on getting yours in so quick
    Well, we'd probably live in a fascist hellscape created by people like you.
    Serious question. What do you think happens to a liberal society if you import millions of illiberal people, and it turns out they don’t assimilate, and instead they persist in those values?

    I can tell you. What you get is an increasingly less liberal society. More hostile to Jews and gays, and - in the end - not great for women. And that is exactly what we are seeing

    Which part of this do you still dispute?
    If anyone is prepared to admit to being Jewish I can recommend the funniest book ever written and much more interesting and informative than the sterile racist bilge Leon pumps out daily.
    Does it have a chapter called never take chewing gum from a mohel ?
    I've got some good mohel jokes if you like but it's not a joke book!

    Guy goes into a shop and says 'can I have a pound of potatoes please''

    'I'm sorry but I don't sell potatoes'

    'Well why have you got them in your window!'

    ''I'm a mohel. What do you want me to have in my window?'

    Is your source "The Joys of Yiddish" (1968) by Leo Rosten?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joys_of_Yiddish

    Was one of my favorite books back in my misspent youth. For what it's worth (2-cents or less) yours truly is not Jewish, nor did I live in a community where Yiddish was heard frequently; indeed, wasn't heard at all. In my humble school we had exactly one Jewish kid, and doubt that she was fluent in anything but (American) English.

    TJOY is a great book, and while somewhat dated (hardly surprising after nearly six decades) it remains a treasure trove of Jewish (specifically Ashkenazi) culture AND the early 20th century American immigrant experience.

    Check it out!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    @tomorrowsmps
    🔵 I hear that the urgency for the Conservatives to find a candidate in every Btitish seat is so great that they are now contacting people who recently resigned from the approved candidates' list to see if they might nonetheless stand in a hopeless seat somewhere.
    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798335719645335579

    Are you standing?
    No, not on the approved list
    That vote for Plaid Cymru has come back to bite you.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    DM_Andy said:

    Good on Corbyn telling Galloway where to go:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/05/general-election-labour-conservatives-sunak-boris-johnson-tv-debate-tax-plans-d-day?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with:block-66605fde8f08fb1be3410928#block-66605fde8f08fb1be3410928

    Corbyn said he had not been tempted to join with George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain – which is seeking to mount a challenge to Labour on the left and on the issue of Gaza – saying there were differences of social policy. “He probably thinks I’m too woke,” he added.

    Galloway probably thinks that Corbyn's views on the Jews are too woke.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    carnforth said:

    Lawmakers can't be lawbreakers latest:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4nn23kz2meo

    A clear improvement from the days of Chris Huhne.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    I was a Tory member for a very short time, but they still send me emails even though I haven't been one for quite a while. Don't know whether this is deliberate or not.

    Just got this from Richard Holden:


    "I'm just following up on Rishi's email to you below by bringing you the BREAKING NEWS that, according to a snap poll, Rishi Sunak beat Sir Keir Starmer among people who watched the debate.

    How did we know this was going to happen? Because only Rishi Sunak has the track record of delivery, and the bold ideas needed for a brighter future.

    And it's a lot easier to stand up your ideas when you actually have a plan.

    If you missed the debate you can see the best bits here >>>

    Thank you to the thousands of you who shared our content at home, and who've chipped in £10, £5, even £1 during the course of the campaign.

    Trust me when I say that everything you do really does make a difference.

    Together, we're going to keep Sir Keir Starmer out of 10 Downing Street. And deliver the bold action needed for a brighter future.

    Yours sincerely,
    Richard Holden
    Chairman of the Conservative and Unionist Party""

    Is it kosher, to refer to him as Chief CUP-Holder Holden?

    Or perhaps CUP-Bearer General?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Tory Party Chairman’s attempt at inserting himself into a safe southern seat is going about as well as you’d expect.

    https://x.com/joepike/status/1798317506870100428?s=46

    He’s such an imbecile.

    That is absurd. I have met Holden and he is a capable politician but that is totally undemocratic.

    CCHQ can just about get away with imposing 3 Sunak loyalists on Associations with no local candidate as they have been doing as at least the membership locally get a choice of those 3.

    However for CCHQ to impose just 1 candidate on an Association removes even that choice
    He was a great constituency MP (mine).

    Then his seat was abolished for this election and he almost immediately gave up entirely. Showing he has no sense of duty; he was only ever doing it out of political cynicism.

    Unimpressed to put it mildly.
    He is also taking a risk, the Basildon part of the Basildon and Billericay seat was Labour in the Blair years and Teresa Gorman only held Billericay narrowly in 1997.

    Labour could win it on current polls, especially if a big Reform vote and LD tactical voting. The only truly safe seats in Essex at the moment even on a worst case scenario are Maldon, Rayleigh and Wickford, Witham and Brentwood and Ongar (and probably Essex NW and Epping Forest)
    I always think back to the hapless Iain Sproat, who chicken ran from Aberdeen South to Roxburgh & Berwickshire in 1983... only for the former to be narrowly held by the Tories and the latter lost.
    It was always a silly decision by Sproat because at that election it was the Alliance who were going up in support and Labour going down, and Roxburgh was a top Alliance target whereas Aberdeen South was a Con/Lab marginal.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Tory Party Chairman’s attempt at inserting himself into a safe southern seat is going about as well as you’d expect.

    https://x.com/joepike/status/1798317506870100428?s=46

    He’s such an imbecile.

    That is absurd. I have met Holden and he is a capable politician but that is totally undemocratic.

    CCHQ can just about get away with imposing 3 Sunak loyalists on Associations with no local candidate as they have been doing as at least the membership locally get a choice of those 3.

    However for CCHQ to impose just 1 candidate on an Association removes even that choice
    He was a great constituency MP (mine).

    Then his seat was abolished for this election and he almost immediately gave up entirely. Showing he has no sense of duty; he was only ever doing it out of political cynicism.

    Unimpressed to put it mildly.
    He is also taking a risk, the Basildon part of the Basildon and Billericay seat was Labour in the Blair years and Teresa Gorman only held Billericay narrowly in 1997.

    Labour could win it on current polls, especially if a big Reform vote and LD tactical voting. The only truly safe seats in Essex at the moment even on a worst case scenario are Maldon, Rayleigh and Wickford, Witham and Brentwood and Ongar (and probably Essex NW and Epping Forest)
    Survation's MRP yesterday had Rayleigh & Wickford going to Labour, astonishingly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited June 5
    eek said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
    Sorry but with Making Tax Digital and the fact that most banks now have apps that allow you to tag payments in seconds I do not see a quarterly VAT return as that complex especially as flat rate turnover based options are available.

    And removing the £90,000 barrier by making it completely unavoidsable would provide a lot of companies with an incentive to work a bit harder rather than stopping as their turnover hits £7,000 for the month...
    One* benefit** of Brexit for VAT is that boxes 2, 8 and 9 have been rendered pretty much null and void unless you're trading out of Belfast.

    * The only

    ** It's actually been very very bad if you previously triangulated, now you need to employ various EU accountants instead of just submitting an intrastat as an SME..

    But the actual return is, yes, much easier.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    DM_Andy said:

    Richard Tice was interviewed by Andrew Neil on Times Radio saying that the target for Reform is millions and millions of votes. UKIP got 3,881,099 votes in GE15, does anyone think that Reform UK will beat that in GE24?

    That was 12.9%, and they could get more than that this time. Turnout was 66.4% in 2015.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Chris said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
    It really is quite funny how the line from the Sunak loyalists has changed over the last 24 hours.

    Last night:
    "Ha ha! Sunak has really won the debate and nailed Starmer with the £2000 tax thing!"

    Today:
    "Oh really all this talk about whether Sunak was lying is a distraction from the real issues."
    Except, the Labour £2,000 extra tax thing is now out there as a real Thing.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,916
    edited June 5

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield
    Labour really going for the PM's character now, on the back of the £2,000 tax row.

    Now accusing him of telling a "bare faced lie" last night about the number of small boat crossings.

    @REWearmouth

    Starmer’s team aggressively fighting back now & calling Sunak a liar over claims he made about small boats

    Seems they are in real panic mode
    Really? Labour can now spend the next 4 weeks calling Rishi a liar - and has multiple bits of evidence to back it up.

    I would call that just about the worst position possible for a politician to be in..
    So you think a politician calling another politician a liar is going to persuade the public, when the general consensus is they all are the same
    Being honest I think your love of the Tory party is completely impossible to understand.
    Why - I am a one nation conservative and my party has lost its way

    That doesn't mean that I will suddenly vote for another party, rather than try to influence my party to return to sanity and the centre
    Your party hasn't so much lost it's way as been taking over (slowly) by a group of right wing clueless (often facist) loonies. Remember that prior to 2019 I voted Conservative - I was very much a centralist Tory but Bozo destroyed that in August - October 2019 and you amongst various others ignored the fact.

    I'm going to be blunt but the best thing for the current Tory party is for it to be completely destroyed so that a new centralist right wing party can be formed from it's remains...
    Except the current Tory government where the most senior figures in the Cabinet are Sunak, Hunt and Cameron IS the most centralist right wing party you are going to get in the UK anytime soon. Sunak toppled Johnson, Hunt was Johnson's opponent for the 2019 Tory leadership and Cameron led the Remain campaign in 2016 against Johnson's Leave campaign.

    Not to mention the fact that Farage is back as leader of a Reform party polling over 10%, if the Tories were replaced it would be by a Farage led hard right populist party NOT any new centrist party
    But dig behind the current figure heads and who is going to replace Rishi in September / October this year. It isn't going to be a centralist it's going to be the more populist facist who wins the members vote.

    The reason why I'm happy to wear the "he loves Labour" hat on here is that I don't want to be within 1000 miles of any part of the blame for the next Tory party leader...

    Not that it actually matters because I said in 2019 that Bozo would be the last Tory PM ever although he didn't manage to last all 5 years (and got replaced twice) I see no reason to believe my prediction that the 2019 Government will be the last one ever formed by the Tory party.
    Re your first paragraph, has anyone actually done any digging on this? There seems to be a generally accepted opinion that someone of the harder right is going to be next Tory leader but is that based on facts?

    For example if you took various seat levels for the Tories, looked at who would be left are we certain that they are majority to the right? As far as I know (and I know nothing, about anything) it could actually be that there would be a much greater number of one nation centrists who might be able to lock out the last two candidates from their wing.

    Just because the remaining seats would by definition be stronger Tory seats it doesn’t necessarily follow that their MPs are further to the right.

    If there ended up 160 Tories and 120 were one nation then they could ensure one of their tribe takes over. The same is true of course for the result being the other way. Like I said, unless someone has really delved into this we are just speculating.
    There’s not a doubt it will be Patel v Badenoch in the final. What is interesting is what wedge issues they will find to fight each other on.

    If a moderate Tory wants to say xx moderate Tory will make final as normally happens, that’s just wish casting this time.
    If it was down to members maybe, even The Mogg would have a good chance of winning the Conservative members vote. With MPs picking the final 2 Barclay v Tugendhat is more likely, especially as most redwall ERG Leaver MPs will have lost their seats and the Tory parliamentary party will be overall likely posher and more southern than it is now
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:


    Fraser Nelson
    @FraserNelson
    ·
    1h
    The Spectator has just ran the figures for the Tories' published tax plans.

    On Sunak's maths, it works out as £3,000 tax rise per household.

    LOL so that's Starmer also taxing £3000 as he's not changing anything.

    Question now is does the £2000 fall on top of the £3000 ?
    It must do

    Which is why when I say there is no money and I expect taxes to increase and a wealth tax is unavoidable, it's unavoidable because the Government needs money.
    Lads' Army Tax
    Private Pike Tax.
    Don't tell em tax?
    Land Army tax, for that matter, although it's certainly not going to increase the tax take from those unfortunate enough to be sent to work in unpaid gangs for once and possibly future Tory voting farmers.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    Chris said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
    It really is quite funny how the line from the Sunak loyalists has changed over the last 24 hours.

    Last night:
    "Ha ha! Sunak has really won the debate and nailed Starmer with the £2000 tax thing!"

    Today:
    "Oh really all this talk about whether Sunak was lying is a distraction from the real issues."
    Except, the Labour £2,000 extra tax thing is now out there as a real Thing.

    Is "a real Thing" nowadays what we used to call a "lie"?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Andy_JS said:

    I was a Tory member for a very short time, but they still send me emails even though I haven't been one for quite a while. Don't know whether this is deliberate or not.

    Just got this from Richard Holden:


    "I'm just following up on Rishi's email to you below by bringing you the BREAKING NEWS that, according to a snap poll, Rishi Sunak beat Sir Keir Starmer among people who watched the debate.

    How did we know this was going to happen? Because only Rishi Sunak has the track record of delivery, and the bold ideas needed for a brighter future.

    And it's a lot easier to stand up your ideas when you actually have a plan.

    If you missed the debate you can see the best bits here >>>

    Thank you to the thousands of you who shared our content at home, and who've chipped in £10, £5, even £1 during the course of the campaign.

    Trust me when I say that everything you do really does make a difference.

    Together, we're going to keep Sir Keir Starmer out of 10 Downing Street. And deliver the bold action needed for a brighter future.

    Yours sincerely,
    Richard Holden
    Chairman of the Conservative and Unionist Party""

    Is it kosher, to refer to him as Chief CUP-Holder Holden?

    Or perhaps CUP-Bearer General?
    Can you refer to him as Dick Holden....?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    I think on the video she also threw the empty beaker at him, that's probably 'beating" under the law
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    Startled me too. But apparently, no shake-making need be involved.

    https://www.oblaw.co.uk/what-is-assault-by-beating/#:~:text=An assault by beating conviction,the culpability of the accused.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited June 5
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    The bloke who egged Corbyn got done for assault & 28 days jail.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Tory Party Chairman’s attempt at inserting himself into a safe southern seat is going about as well as you’d expect.

    https://x.com/joepike/status/1798317506870100428?s=46

    He’s such an imbecile.

    That is absurd. I have met Holden and he is a capable politician but that is totally undemocratic.

    CCHQ can just about get away with imposing 3 Sunak loyalists on Associations with no local candidate as they have been doing as at least the membership locally get a choice of those 3.

    However for CCHQ to impose just 1 candidate on an Association removes even that choice
    Good evening, I'm from Essex
    In case you couldn't tell
    My given name is Dickie
    I come from Billericay
    And I'm doing very well
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Is she being sued by the makers of the milkshake for causing distress to dairy products?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    I think on the video she also threw the empty beaker at him, that's probably 'beating" under the law
    Not even that. Once the first drop came into contact ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,916
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Tory Party Chairman’s attempt at inserting himself into a safe southern seat is going about as well as you’d expect.

    https://x.com/joepike/status/1798317506870100428?s=46

    He’s such an imbecile.

    That is absurd. I have met Holden and he is a capable politician but that is totally undemocratic.

    CCHQ can just about get away with imposing 3 Sunak loyalists on Associations with no local candidate as they have been doing as at least the membership locally get a choice of those 3.

    However for CCHQ to impose just 1 candidate on an Association removes even that choice
    He was a great constituency MP (mine).

    Then his seat was abolished for this election and he almost immediately gave up entirely. Showing he has no sense of duty; he was only ever doing it out of political cynicism.

    Unimpressed to put it mildly.
    He is also taking a risk, the Basildon part of the Basildon and Billericay seat was Labour in the Blair years and Teresa Gorman only held Billericay narrowly in 1997.

    Labour could win it on current polls, especially if a big Reform vote and LD tactical voting. The only truly safe seats in Essex at the moment even on a worst case scenario are Maldon, Rayleigh and Wickford, Witham and Brentwood and Ongar (and probably Essex NW and Epping Forest)
    Survation's MRP yesterday had Rayleigh & Wickford going to Labour, astonishingly.
    I don't believe that one, even Yougov MRP still has the Conservatives over 100 seats and that was before Rishi's good debate performance last night
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 5
    HYUFD said:

    @tomorrowsmps
    🔵 I hear that the urgency for the Conservatives to find a candidate in every Btitish seat is so great that they are now contacting people who recently resigned from the approved candidates' list to see if they might nonetheless stand in a hopeless seat somewhere.
    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798335719645335579

    Quite a brouhaha in the hitherto safe seat of Basildon and Billericay.

    The national party have parachuted in the party chairman Richard Holden, of whom no-one has ever heard.

    There’s now a blazing row from local Conservative leaders

    Electoral Calculus have this as a comfortable Labour gain, which I find fairly baffling tbh. But if the odds were better than the 13/8 you can get on Labour I would certainly have a flutter.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckkkq4kx3l0o

    https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/24367978.conservative-chairman-richard-holden-sparks-fury-basildon/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    The bloke who egged Corbyn got done for assault & 28 days jail.
    I think all the idiots who egged him on should get even longer stretches.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited June 5

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    The bloke who egged Corbyn got done for assault & 28 days jail.
    I think all the idiots who egged him on should get even longer stretches.
    Well most of them all go to Glastonbury. Pen them in and make them listen to Radiohead live every day for a few weeks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Is she being sued by the makers of the milkshake for causing distress to dairy products?
    Well, they won't have a whip round.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    ITN News:

    "People queued up this morning to get their hands on the first banknotes to feature the King".

    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-06-04/all-change-as-king-charles-banknotes-enter-circulation
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
    It really is quite funny how the line from the Sunak loyalists has changed over the last 24 hours.

    Last night:
    "Ha ha! Sunak has really won the debate and nailed Starmer with the £2000 tax thing!"

    Today:
    "Oh really all this talk about whether Sunak was lying is a distraction from the real issues."
    Except, the Labour £2,000 extra tax thing is now out there as a real Thing.

    Is "a real Thing" nowadays what we used to call a "lie"?
    Labour will put up taxes. That is a real Thing. The lie is where Starmer is trying to pretend they won't.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 5
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    @tomorrowsmps
    🔵 I hear that the urgency for the Conservatives to find a candidate in every Btitish seat is so great that they are now contacting people who recently resigned from the approved candidates' list to see if they might nonetheless stand in a hopeless seat somewhere.
    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798335719645335579

    Quite a brouhaha in the hitherto safe seat of Basildon and Billericay.

    The national party have parachuted in the party chairman Richard Holden, of whom no-one has ever heard.

    There’s now a blazing row from local Conservative leaders

    Electoral Calculus have this as a comfortable Labour gain, which I find fairly baffling tbh. But if the odds were better than the 13/8 you can get on Labour I would certainly have a flutter.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckkkq4kx3l0o

    https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/24367978.conservative-chairman-richard-holden-sparks-fury-basildon/
    An inverse Howard Flight. Or a re run of Truss and the turnip Taliban if you like
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    The bloke who egged Corbyn got done for assault & 28 days jail.
    Maybe in this case they will send her to reform school.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    YouGov out at 5, Sam Coates keen to tell us its under new methodology, but first post Farage poll
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Is she being sued by the makers of the milkshake for causing distress to dairy products?
    Well, they won't have a whip round.
    It would shake her up a bit though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    I think on the video she also threw the empty beaker at him, that's probably 'beating" under the law
    Not even that. Once the first drop came into contact ...
    Mawhinney suffered an altogether more serious attack and the charge was common assault.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/paint-protest-group-guilty-1305217.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    A gentle reminder that any given Muslim is far, far more likely to be the victim of a hate crime than to perpetrate one.

    The deliberate insinuation that Muslims are all bad is gross bigotry, yet oddly tolerated in certain circles.

    Where would we be without painfully meaningless, boring left platitudes designed to avoid the fucking obvious? Congrats on getting yours in so quick
    Well, we'd probably live in a fascist hellscape created by people like you.
    Serious question. What do you think happens to a liberal society if you import millions of illiberal people, and it turns out they don’t assimilate, and instead they persist in those values?

    I can tell you. What you get is an increasingly less liberal society. More hostile to Jews and gays, and - in the end - not great for women. And that is exactly what we are seeing

    Which part of this do you still dispute?
    If anyone is prepared to admit to being Jewish I can recommend the funniest book ever written and much more interesting and informative than the sterile racist bilge Leon pumps out daily.
    Gee. The thanks I get for trying to save your sorry Zhid arse. I don’t know why I bother
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    A gentle reminder that any given Muslim is far, far more likely to be the victim of a hate crime than to perpetrate one.

    The deliberate insinuation that Muslims are all bad is gross bigotry, yet oddly tolerated in certain circles.

    Where would we be without painfully meaningless, boring left platitudes designed to avoid the fucking obvious? Congrats on getting yours in so quick
    Well, we'd probably live in a fascist hellscape created by people like you.
    Serious question. What do you think happens to a liberal society if you import millions of illiberal people, and it turns out they don’t assimilate, and instead they persist in those values?

    I can tell you. What you get is an increasingly less liberal society. More hostile to Jews and gays, and - in the end - not great for women. And that is exactly what we are seeing

    Which part of this do you still dispute?
    If anyone is prepared to admit to being Jewish I can recommend the funniest book ever written and much more interesting and informative than the sterile racist bilge Leon pumps out daily.
    Does it have a chapter called never take chewing gum from a mohel ?
    I've got some good mohel jokes if you like but it's not a joke book!

    Guy goes into a shop and says 'can I have a pound of potatoes please''

    'I'm sorry but I don't sell potatoes'

    'Well why have you got them in your window!'

    ''I'm a mohel. What do you want me to have in my window?'

    Is your source "The Joys of Yiddish" (1968) by Leo Rosten?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joys_of_Yiddish

    Was one of my favorite books back in my misspent youth. For what it's worth (2-cents or less) yours truly is not Jewish, nor did I live in a community where Yiddish was heard frequently; indeed, wasn't heard at all. In my humble school we had exactly one Jewish kid, and doubt that she was fluent in anything but (American) English.

    TJOY is a great book, and while somewhat dated (hardly surprising after nearly six decades) it remains a treasure trove of Jewish (specifically Ashkenazi) culture AND the early 20th century American immigrant experience.

    Check it out!
    I enjoyed it as a teenager - very much as part of exploring wider culture. The Bernard Malamud novels, too. How different the New York Yiddish world seemed. But I never got round to trying gefilte fish and lox on bagel - till realising many decades latyer my favourite lunchtime smoked salmon and cream cheese on a bagel was just that.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    The bloke who egged Corbyn got done for assault & 28 days jail.
    I think all the idiots who egged him on should get even longer stretches.
    Well most of them all go to Glastonbury. Pen them in and make them listen to Radiohead live every day for a few weeks.
    That wouldn't be a punishment lol
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?

    Anyone want to dispute that?

    If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.

    Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?

    Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.

    Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    It occurs to me that there is a more pleasant explanation for the milkshake throwing incident. Perhaps Ms. Thomas-Bowen was simply trying to follow Churchill's advice and put milk into a baby.

    Granted the odds are against that explanation, but I don't think you should exclude it completely.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    edited June 5
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
    It really is quite funny how the line from the Sunak loyalists has changed over the last 24 hours.

    Last night:
    "Ha ha! Sunak has really won the debate and nailed Starmer with the £2000 tax thing!"

    Today:
    "Oh really all this talk about whether Sunak was lying is a distraction from the real issues."
    Except, the Labour £2,000 extra tax thing is now out there as a real Thing.

    Is "a real Thing" nowadays what we used to call a "lie"?
    Labour's refusing-to-raise-taxes-but-are-going-to-improve-public-services-including-the-NHS is something Labour wanted kept in the dark, but has now had a light shone on it.

    Labour could always, you know, do the honesty thing and admit that taxes are going to rise, to ensure services will improve. But last night, Starmer confirmed no tax, NI or VAT rises (except for on private education).

    That is the lie at the heart of this election. Either taxes go up - or services don't improve.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    Archaic law naming strikes again.

    A surprising number of people don't realise you can assault someone, in the legal sense, by making them *feel* threatened.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    The bloke who egged Corbyn got done for assault & 28 days jail.
    I think all the idiots who egged him on should get even longer stretches.
    Where did you poach that idea from?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    I am using my daily image to remind us all of the time somebody threw shit all over RKS in the hope that it encourages somebody to do the same or worse to NF.


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    You might like to read about this roughly coeval incident if you don't know about it, SSI.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prescott_punch
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKM6nn8ie2A
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    The bloke who egged Corbyn got done for assault & 28 days jail.
    I think all the idiots who egged him on should get even longer stretches.
    Well most of them all go to Glastonbury. Pen them in and make them listen to Radiohead live every day for a few weeks.
    Been nice knowing you.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    Archaic law naming strikes again.

    A surprising number of people don't realise you can assault someone, in the legal sense, by making them *feel* threatened.
    I have felt *threatened* by the overt twatishness of Nigel Farage for many years. Can someone please arrest the a*rsehole
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    edited June 5
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield
    Labour really going for the PM's character now, on the back of the £2,000 tax row.

    Now accusing him of telling a "bare faced lie" last night about the number of small boat crossings.

    @REWearmouth

    Starmer’s team aggressively fighting back now & calling Sunak a liar over claims he made about small boats

    Seems they are in real panic mode
    Really? Labour can now spend the next 4 weeks calling Rishi a liar - and has multiple bits of evidence to back it up.

    I would call that just about the worst position possible for a politician to be in..
    So you think a politician calling another politician a liar is going to persuade the public, when the general consensus is they all are the same
    Being honest I think your love of the Tory party is completely impossible to understand.
    Why - I am a one nation conservative and my party has lost its way

    That doesn't mean that I will suddenly vote for another party, rather than try to influence my party to return to sanity and the centre
    Your party hasn't so much lost it's way as been taking over (slowly) by a group of right wing clueless (often facist) loonies. Remember that prior to 2019 I voted Conservative - I was very much a centralist Tory but Bozo destroyed that in August - October 2019 and you amongst various others ignored the fact.

    I'm going to be blunt but the best thing for the current Tory party is for it to be completely destroyed so that a new centralist right wing party can be formed from it's remains...
    Except the current Tory government where the most senior figures in the Cabinet are Sunak, Hunt and Cameron IS the most centralist right wing party you are going to get in the UK anytime soon. Sunak toppled Johnson, Hunt was Johnson's opponent for the 2019 Tory leadership and Cameron led the Remain campaign in 2016 against Johnson's Leave campaign.

    Not to mention the fact that Farage is back as leader of a Reform party polling over 10%, if the Tories were replaced it would be by a Farage led hard right populist party NOT any new centrist party
    But dig behind the current figure heads and who is going to replace Rishi in September / October this year. It isn't going to be a centralist it's going to be the more populist facist who wins the members vote.

    The reason why I'm happy to wear the "he loves Labour" hat on here is that I don't want to be within 1000 miles of any part of the blame for the next Tory party leader...

    Not that it actually matters because I said in 2019 that Bozo would be the last Tory PM ever although he didn't manage to last all 5 years (and got replaced twice) I see no reason to believe my prediction that the 2019 Government will be the last one ever formed by the Tory party.
    Re your first paragraph, has anyone actually done any digging on this? There seems to be a generally accepted opinion that someone of the harder right is going to be next Tory leader but is that based on facts?

    For example if you took various seat levels for the Tories, looked at who would be left are we certain that they are majority to the right? As far as I know (and I know nothing, about anything) it could actually be that there would be a much greater number of one nation centrists who might be able to lock out the last two candidates from their wing.

    Just because the remaining seats would by definition be stronger Tory seats it doesn’t necessarily follow that their MPs are further to the right.

    If there ended up 160 Tories and 120 were one nation then they could ensure one of their tribe takes over. The same is true of course for the result being the other way. Like I said, unless someone has really delved into this we are just speculating.
    There’s not a doubt it will be Patel v Badenoch in the final. What is interesting is what wedge issues they will find to fight each other on.

    If a moderate Tory wants to say xx moderate Tory will make final as normally happens, that’s just wish casting this time.
    If it was down to members maybe, even The Mogg would have a good chance of winning the Conservative members vote. With MPs picking the final 2 Barclay v Tugendhat is more likely, especially as most redwall ERG Leaver MPs will have lost their seats and the Tory parliamentary party will be overall likely posher and more southern than it is now
    As I said, wish casting 😇

    But there is a VERY SERIOUS betting angle to what you said HY, if you are correct, are the next Tory leader markets priced on the Tory parliamentary party being smaller, southern, posher and more moderate?

    Or are they priced up on the outgoing Tory parliamentary party, and current big fish in that?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited June 5

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    He pretty much just carried on walking. See here.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LscVkmzvnM0
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards

    In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for

    Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    No really. I did. That’s not what you want to hear in Odesssa
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    Archaic law naming strikes again.

    A surprising number of people don't realise you can assault someone, in the legal sense, by making them *feel* threatened.
    I have felt *threatened* by the overt twatishness of Nigel Farage for many years. Can someone please arrest the a*rsehole
    You might want to change your username. I mean, calling yourself Nigel F? No wonder you feel uncomfortable.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    The bloke who egged Corbyn got done for assault & 28 days jail.
    I think all the idiots who egged him on should get even longer stretches.
    Well most of them all go to Glastonbury. Pen them in and make them listen to Radiohead live every day for a few weeks.
    {Judge puts on black cap}

    You have been found guilty by pb.com of heinous crimes. I sentence you as follows. You shall be taken from the place to a place of punishment. There you shall be placed in a cell with Piers Morgan, Piers Corbyn and Julian Assange. The only entertainment will be (a) an externally controlled speaker playing 24/7, the worst songs of Radiohead. (b) a computer set to allow you to only read the comments on Conservative Home and program in Python. The only food allowed will be Dominos Pineapple Pizza.

    May the Lord have mercy upon your soul.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,624
    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    Leon said:

    Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards

    In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for

    Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion

    Why have the Flint Knappers Gazette sent you?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795

    New Market up on BF Exchange

    Number of Tories to Defect to Reform https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/multi-market?marketIds=1.229664621






    Thanks. I wish they separated out 1 and 2. Market too thin to do much with atm, gun to head I'd be backing 0 but I don't have a gun to my head :)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    Throw a milkshake at someone, get locked up, and it will all be over by the time you're out.

    Oh, hold on, I forgot the courts have collapsed because of underfunding, so you won't get sentenced until 2026...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:

    Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards

    In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for

    Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion

    Olivia Manning is pure shite compared to this.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Faiza Shaheen
    @faizashaheen
    I am standing as an independent candidate for Chingford & Woodford Green at the General Election on 4 July.

    For more info: http://faizashaheen.co.uk

    Sign up to volunteer: https://actionnetwork.org/forms/help-faiza-shaheen-beat-iain-duncan-smith-in-chingford-and-woodford-green/

    Let's do this!

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177


    Doubt this will make much difference but will give the Tories slightly more of a chance...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    That loud scream of joy emanated from Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    Archaic law naming strikes again.

    A surprising number of people don't realise you can assault someone, in the legal sense, by making them *feel* threatened.
    I have felt *threatened* by the overt twatishness of Nigel Farage for many years. Can someone please arrest the a*rsehole
    You might want to change your username. I mean, calling yourself Nigel F? No wonder you feel uncomfortable.
    It was originally a joke on his name, though a poor one. He was Nigel For Age and I was Nigel For Remain. Bit shit really wasn't it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    BET365 Con 7/2 hold becomes interesting
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    edited June 5

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    I'm on holiday next week for a week so thankfully I'm spared a week of it. But I've just discovered that the temperature is currently 40C so I'm not expecting to do much beyond sitting in the shade trying to keep cool.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    . . . meanwhile back at the ranch . . . highlights from yesterday's primaries in the USA . . .

    NEW JERSEY PRIMARY 2024

    > Biden is winning 88.5% of the Dem primary vote for POTUS; Trump was unopposed.

    > Congressman Andy Kim is winning Dem US Senate nomination with 75% and carrying all counties

    > In Rep primary, head of NJ Right to Life (anti-abortion) Curtis Bashaw (45.6%) is beating Trump-annointed Christine Serrano Glassner (38.6%) for US Senate nomination

    > NOTE that incumbent US Sen. Bob Menendez (D-Qatar) who is currently standing trial in federal court, did NOT file for the primary BUT has recently filed to run as an Independent in the general election.

    > His son, Congressman Rob Menendez, is winning renomination in the Democratic 8th District primary with 54% of the vote in his daddy's home turf.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    What happens to consultations coming to an end now?

    There is one I am aware of running until June 16th, which could be implemented by a change to a Transport Advisory Leaflet.

    Do Ministers have the power to do this at this time?

    I'll talk specifics if anyone wishes, but it's really a process question.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?

    Anyone want to dispute that?

    If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.

    Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?

    Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.

    Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.

    There is a VI poll out at 5pm which should give us a better idea*. But yes, your analysis seems fair.

    *METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    A gentle reminder that any given Muslim is far, far more likely to be the victim of a hate crime than to perpetrate one.

    The deliberate insinuation that Muslims are all bad is gross bigotry, yet oddly tolerated in certain circles.

    Where would we be without painfully meaningless, boring left platitudes designed to avoid the fucking obvious? Congrats on getting yours in so quick
    Well, we'd probably live in a fascist hellscape created by people like you.
    Serious question. What do you think happens to a liberal society if you import millions of illiberal people, and it turns out they don’t assimilate, and instead they persist in those values?

    I can tell you. What you get is an increasingly less liberal society. More hostile to Jews and gays, and - in the end - not great for women. And that is exactly what we are seeing

    Which part of this do you still dispute?
    If anyone is prepared to admit to being Jewish I can recommend the funniest book ever written and much more interesting and informative than the sterile racist bilge Leon pumps out daily.
    Does it have a chapter called never take chewing gum from a mohel ?
    I've got some good mohel jokes if you like but it's not a joke book!

    Guy goes into a shop and says 'can I have a pound of potatoes please''

    'I'm sorry but I don't sell potatoes'

    'Well why have you got them in your window!'

    ''I'm a mohel. What do you want me to have in my window?'

    Is your source "The Joys of Yiddish" (1968) by Leo Rosten?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joys_of_Yiddish

    Was one of my favorite books back in my misspent youth. For what it's worth (2-cents or less) yours truly is not Jewish, nor did I live in a community where Yiddish was heard frequently; indeed, wasn't heard at all. In my humble school we had exactly one Jewish kid, and doubt that she was fluent in anything but (American) English.

    TJOY is a great book, and while somewhat dated (hardly surprising after nearly six decades) it remains a treasure trove of Jewish (specifically Ashkenazi) culture AND the early 20th century American immigrant experience.

    Check it out!
    Tony Curtis who was Jewish from New York told a nice story. He lived in a Jewish area but as a boy was invited to a Catholic Mass. As he was queuing up for communion one of the boys whispered 'Have you farted? "No" he said "Was I supposed to?"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    ydoethur said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    That loud scream of joy emanated from Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
    Wonder what the Chingford Skinhead would make of this....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    eek said:

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    I'm on holiday next week for a week - just discovered that the temperature is currently 40C so I'm not expecting to do much beyond sitting in the shade trying to keep cool.
    Where are you going? With those temperatures Skegness.....

    Do we all remember the great heat scare of 2022....must all stay inside or die from 40c.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    Throw a milkshake at someone, get locked up, and it will all be over by the time you're out.

    Oh, hold on, I forgot the courts have collapsed because of underfunding, so you won't get sentenced until 2026...
    Reminds me of the fact I was robbed/mugged in Rome in March this year. Tried to report it to a police station, but they closed at 5pm, and since I was going back the next day, didn't have time to go back again. So that crime doesn't officially exist.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    Throw a milkshake at someone, get locked up, and it will all be over by the time you're out.

    Oh, hold on, I forgot the courts have collapsed because of underfunding, so you won't get sentenced until 2026...
    :D Genuine lolz.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

    But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."

    (I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.

    There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    Andy_JS said:

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    Throw a milkshake at someone, get locked up, and it will all be over by the time you're out.

    Oh, hold on, I forgot the courts have collapsed because of underfunding, so you won't get sentenced until 2026...
    Reminds me of the fact I was robbed/mugged in Rome in March this year. Tried to report it to a police station, but they closed at 5pm, and since I was going back the next day, didn't have time to go back again. So that crime doesn't officially exist.
    It being Italy, i presume they only take reports of mugging betweem 3-4pm every other Tues anyway.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    eek said:

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    I'm on holiday next week for a week - just discovered that the temperature is currently 40C so I'm not expecting to do much beyond sitting in the shade trying to keep cool.
    Where are you going? With those temperatures Skegness.....

    Do we all remember the great heat scare of 2022....must all stay inside or die from 40c.
    Antalya - I was expecting temperatures to be high 20s, early 30s not anything like they will be.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    FWIW Tory majority has lengthened somewhat since the debate last night.

    Now out to 60 (was 55 last night).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards

    In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for

    Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion

    Olivia Manning is pure shite compared to this.
    Weren’t you meant to be in Kharkiv? What happened? Bottled it?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Sandpit said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.

    There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
    I can assure you Chingford won't be a Tory gain – because the Tories are defending the seat!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited June 5

    FWIW Tory majority has lengthened somewhat since the debate last night.

    Now out to 60 (was 55 last night).

    Somebody seen a new poll...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Leon said:

    Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards

    In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for

    Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion

    Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?

    Anyone want to dispute that?

    If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.

    Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?

    Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.

    Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.

    There is a VI poll out at 5pm which should give us a better idea*. But yes, your analysis seems fair.

    *METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON
    I don't think your PB Tory friends need to worry about a methodology change if Rishi closes the gap.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sandpit said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.

    There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
    This one is already Tory. On a similar vein, Ilford North........ If you believe Leanne Mohammed is damaging Streeting, the Tories through the middle becomes possible, but very heavily DYOR
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    ...

    Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?

    Anyone want to dispute that?

    If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.

    Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?

    Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.

    Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.

    There is a VI poll out at 5pm which should give us a better idea*. But yes, your analysis seems fair.

    *METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON
    I don't think your PB Tory friends need to worry about a methodology change if Rishi closes the gap.
    Well the point is the methodology change might lead to a change in the gap.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,916

    Sandpit said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.

    There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
    This one is already Tory. On a similar vein, Ilford North........ If you believe Leanne Mohammed is damaging Streeting, the Tories through the middle becomes possible, but very heavily DYOR
    Tory candidate is the excellent Kaz Rizvi, Chigwell councillor who grew up in Ilford North seat and is campaigning hard. I doubt he wins but should get a much lower than average swing against him
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    "Beaten not shaken"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Labour are still going to win Chingford easily, even if Faiza Shaheen has a good showing with around 10% of the vote.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

    But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."

    (I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)

    Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."

This discussion has been closed.