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What’s tonight’s debate going to this betting market? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,217
    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile

    PB CYCLISTS. And LAWYERS.

    A question.

    Aunt last night driving home was waiting at a traffic light junction to turn right across traffic. Opposite direction traffic backed up and static leaving a gap for the right turn. Lights green. Bus is first in the line ahead of the junction and waves her on. She moves across and is hit head on by a cyclist undertaking the bus. Chaos ensues. My aunt says the cyclist was going very fast but his (and her) light was green.

    Who's at fault.

    Picture showing junction and from direction of travel of aunt (my one of the month).

    Your aunt.
    Thanks

    Not sure.
    Thanks (and thanks all). My aunt is v happy to make amends, even if legally she was in the right (which it seems she wasn't by the comments here).

    My question I suppose was what was the mechanism of the legal/insurance process.

    The cyclist has written to her saying she was in the wrong, right of way, etc, and is going to get the bike assessed and expects to be made good. No one has yet mentioned insurance or police.
    I would snap that offer up!

    However, I think you have to report the collision to the police if anyone was injured - I think that must be quite likely? And the insurer will likely require that they are informed too.

    I would invoke @MattW at this point
    Long answer, which I hope is helpful. I think all 3 parties made mistakes.

    The bus driver wove (waved?) a party across a traffic lane (the cycle lane) he could not control, giving her false reassurance (was he mislead by looking in his NS mirror?). Since it is a backed up box junction the bus driver wasn't allowed to enter it anyway - the exit has to be clear to enter, unless they will be waiting to turn right.

    The cyclist riding up the cycle lane has priority over oncoming turning traffic, in the same way as any other vehicle driving along a road does. If he was going as fast as stated, then I'd consider his cycling to be on the scale somewhere between insufficiently cautious and negligent, due to the difficulty he created for himself of seeing round the bus in time to stop.

    My comments on your aunt would be similar - she should imo have paused halfway across to have a look round the bus, and the fact of the collision is that she went across oncoming traffic.

    Plus there is the Duty of Care to vulnerable road users under the Hierarchy of Responsibility.

    If it comes to Civil Court or insurance negotiations I'd expect any assessed amount to be reduced modestly or substantially due to contributory negligence by the cyclist.

    On what should be reported, it is more extensive than I realised but I suspect non-injury accidents are not always reported. May be worth reporting mentioning "non-injury but damage accident" as a way of getting an official record of "non-injury"?
    https://www.police.uk/advice/advice-and-information/rs/road-safety/collisions/

    In the circs either snap up that offer or hand it over to the insurance company to deal with, perhaps in dialogue with the cyclist's insurer, and consider whether there is a need to report to the police. Hope both are well and your mum has protected no claims. Most cyclists have 3rd Party Liability via at least household insurance, though many do not know it - this one may have specialist insurance too. Bike damage could be several k.

    Obvs if she takes up the offer don't admit total fault in writing as that could undermine future positions, and sound fluffy but straight forward ("I am glad to hear that you have no injuries"). But we all know that type of thing here.

    Get your mum to make written contemporaneous notes, dictating to you if necessary.

    I'd say consider getting the CCTV from the cameras on the bus (Service Access Request under Data Protection Act, mentioning time / date / location and describing your mum's car), and/or preserve dashcam footage from your mum, just in case.

    There was a recent cyclist-on-cyclist one in Scotland where civil legal action was not initiated for a considerable time (2 years iirc), so capture and file the data as an insurance policy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    edited June 5
    FF43 said:

    a

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    fitalass said:

    One of Sunak's better moments was the way he dealt with the gotcha question on private medical treatment with a straightforward "yes". Starmer's answer sounded like it belonged to another era and will be a hostage to fortune.

    I am still struggling with why Starmer would even dream of saying no to a question that most people like Sunak would not have even hesitated to say yes too, and I think there will be some cut through with that bizarre answer with those that were watching the debate.
    The correct answer for someone responsible for providing healthcare to the population is "if it's good enough for you, it's good enough for me." Starmer gave the correct answer; Sunak gave the incorrect answer.

    The issue I suppose is whether it's better to be believable than correct. As this is a political debate I'm not sure it is better.
    Good morning

    I simply do not believe Starmer would not put his family first in the circumstances of a medical emergency and his answer was simply political and dishonest
    Private care isn't about emergencies though. Emergency care is pretty much only via the NHS, which is why it matters to us all. A multimillionaire acquaintance of mine found this out when his mum fractured her hip. There is no alternative to the local Emergency Dept in that situation (Bangor in that case).

    If it was a requirement that all elected politicians could only use the NHS and State Schools then I suspect that this would concentrate their minds on improving things for the rest of us quite noticeably!
    Private healthcare is not without risk. After a close family member picked up a life threatening infection at a luxurious private hospital, which then had to be fixed by the NHS, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to reject the allure of quick fixes in the private sector and believe the NHS option is best.
    Because of course the NHS never has problems with its care. :
    Sure, but the point is that it’s perfectly reasonable to believe that private medicine is not the answer, nor the best option.
    Several members of my family have use private medical care and it most certainly in their cases was the best option not least my daughter who had an urgent private scan that ruled out cancer
    Great!

    But don't you think everyone should be able to have an urgent scan, not just those who have the disposable income/savings to afford it?

    The reason the NHS is failing rich people is that too few poor people are getting early interventions. Doom loop.
    I'm sceptical private healthcare improves the overall provision. If a system is capacity constrained anyone bumped up the queue ipso facto pushes everyone else back. Possibly private medicine brings more money and investment into the system. Overall people care that they get the treatment and it's affordable and probably don't care whether they fund it through taxation or pay for it separately.

    Fundamentally I think private healthcare pushes provision towards ability to pay than to need. The American system is an extreme example of an inequitable and inefficient system like this.
    Private healthcare also provides examples of what is possible. My daughter had an issue. NHS slow motion ensues. Each specialist ordered a single test. Wait. Rule something out.... Waaaaait.

    The private chap ordered the MRI, Xray etc in advance. Then called us in. Then gave a diagnosis that turned out to be correct on the spot.
    The hypothesis to test here I think is that multiple tests are deemed not the best value use of a very limited budget. As you have plenty of spare money you are less constrained in your vfm calculation. So the question I think is whether multiple tests would be a good use of additional money being made available. I totally get your wanting the best for your daughter but someone aiming to get the best medical outcomes for a whole population needs to make trade offs. Treatment according to ability to pay rather on need undermines the objective of best medical outcomes for a population.
    The NHS way of doing it was to

    1) See a consultant
    2) He ordered a a test
    3) See the consultant
    4) Another test
    5) etc

    Test data is cheap compared to consultants time - and it is cheap (relatively) to buy more MRI machines, X ray machines and find the staff to run them. Consultants are *rare* and it takes a decade to make a new one.

    Tests *used* to be far more expensive.

    This is classic OR stuff.

    EDIT: The other classic NHS thing is joined up behaviour. Or lack of it. A relative, in hospital, just nearly died from neglect. The operation was a brilliant success - but the patient nearly died. It took a letter to the head of the Trust to get someone to pull their finger out.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,671
    edited June 5
    Scott_xP said:

    So much winning...

    @e_casalicchio

    NEW: UK stats watchdog looking into Conservative claim about their tax attack on Labour being from independent HMT civil servants

    The civil service seems to be a bit too politically active for my liking, regardless of the rights and wrongs of this case.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    DM_Andy said:

    ydoethur said:

    BBC saying that Gething is likely to lose a VONC in Wales due to 2 Lab members being "ill" (one is the lady that he sacked for leaking).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv224x3pmv9o

    I know all the focus is on the GE at the moment, but it feels that Labour in Wales "ought" to be beatable in 2026 as they've been in power even longer than Con in Westminster and SNP in Holyrood

    They've just rigged the electoral system to make that damn near impossible. Thread header intended to follow when I have a moment.
    No it's not impossible to beat Labour in Wales. All the Conservatives or Plaid Cymru need to do is get more people to vote for them.
    You think Plaid will back the Tories over Labour?

    I'm inviting offers for the Prince of Wales Bridge. Will you bid?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone called Peter Inglesby has designed a tool that puts all the MRP results together for each constituency.

    https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

    Quite a range across the different methodologies/firms:


    Andy_JS said:

    Someone called Peter Inglesby has designed a tool that puts all the MRP results together for each constituency.

    https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

    Quite a range across the different methodologies/firms:


    I think SKS would take even the worst MRP on 4/7/24

    Still a good working Maj.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000

    Scott_xP said:

    So much winning...

    @e_casalicchio

    NEW: UK stats watchdog looking into Conservative claim about their tax attack on Labour being from independent HMT civil servants

    The civil service seems to be a bit too politically active for my liking, regardless of the rights and wrongs of this case.
    I am not sure the Treasury advising the PM not to lie to the public is "too politically active" but YMMV
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Reeves makes it up on school fees. This has all the hallmarks of David Willetts on Uni fees.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/04/rachel-reeves-reassure-scottish-parents-private-school-vat/
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390

    Scott_xP said:

    So much winning...

    @e_casalicchio

    NEW: UK stats watchdog looking into Conservative claim about their tax attack on Labour being from independent HMT civil servants

    The civil service seems to be a bit too politically active for my liking, regardless of the rights and wrongs of this case.
    What part of the civil service saying don't say the figures come from us is political...
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    ydoethur said:

    BBC saying that Gething is likely to lose a VONC in Wales due to 2 Lab members being "ill" (one is the lady that he sacked for leaking).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv224x3pmv9o

    I know all the focus is on the GE at the moment, but it feels that Labour in Wales "ought" to be beatable in 2026 as they've been in power even longer than Con in Westminster and SNP in Holyrood

    They've just rigged the electoral system to make that damn near impossible. Thread header intended to follow when I have a moment.
    No it's not impossible to beat Labour in Wales. All the Conservatives or Plaid Cymru need to do is get more people to vote for them.
    You think Plaid will back the Tories over Labour?

    I'm inviting offers for the Prince of Wales Bridge. Will you bid?
    That's not what I'm saying in the slightest. I'm saying that the electoral system isn't rigged in favour of Labour. If the Conservatives get more votes in a Senedd election than Labour then they will win more seats than Labour. I would have thought there was no need to say that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000
    This would be nice...

    @wizbates

    Hopefully one of the lessons learned during Brexit was that impartiality doesn’t mean presenting a lie and the truth as if they are the same and letting viewers decide which is which for balance. If something is demonstrably and unequivocally untrue, it’s ok to report that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    Scott_xP said:

    @susannareid100

    “Rishi Sunak lied to the British public” - Labour on the £2k tax claim.

    I listened to a conservative adviser this morning who said that the party is delighted with the row as it takes Labour's NHS arguments off the table and highlights Labour and taxation and the longer it is drawn out the more they are content to discuss it

    Looks as if you are playing into their hands on this
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194
    ToryJim said:

    viewcode said:

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 NEW: Tory candidate Tom Hunt is considering defecting to Reform UK after a row with party chairman Richard Holden

    [@Steven_Swinford]

    "Considering". Oh, the manliness just seeps off the page, does it not?
    If he was that attracted to Farage and Reform he’d just do it. By letting sources know he’s toying with defecting he’s proving that it’s calculation that is determinative. Odd little boy.

    The burghers of Ipswich deserve a better choice than a spoilt manchild who can’t make his mind up which way he swings.
    He's been a bit special since having no ID at the locals and then penning a weird article for Conhome about Susan Hall actually having been vg....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    a

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    fitalass said:

    One of Sunak's better moments was the way he dealt with the gotcha question on private medical treatment with a straightforward "yes". Starmer's answer sounded like it belonged to another era and will be a hostage to fortune.

    I am still struggling with why Starmer would even dream of saying no to a question that most people like Sunak would not have even hesitated to say yes too, and I think there will be some cut through with that bizarre answer with those that were watching the debate.
    The correct answer for someone responsible for providing healthcare to the population is "if it's good enough for you, it's good enough for me." Starmer gave the correct answer; Sunak gave the incorrect answer.

    The issue I suppose is whether it's better to be believable than correct. As this is a political debate I'm not sure it is better.
    Good morning

    I simply do not believe Starmer would not put his family first in the circumstances of a medical emergency and his answer was simply political and dishonest
    Private care isn't about emergencies though. Emergency care is pretty much only via the NHS, which is why it matters to us all. A multimillionaire acquaintance of mine found this out when his mum fractured her hip. There is no alternative to the local Emergency Dept in that situation (Bangor in that case).

    If it was a requirement that all elected politicians could only use the NHS and State Schools then I suspect that this would concentrate their minds on improving things for the rest of us quite noticeably!
    Private healthcare is not without risk. After a close family member picked up a life threatening infection at a luxurious private hospital, which then had to be fixed by the NHS, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to reject the allure of quick fixes in the private sector and believe the NHS option is best.
    Because of course the NHS never has problems with its care. :
    Sure, but the point is that it’s perfectly reasonable to believe that private medicine is not the answer, nor the best option.
    Several members of my family have use private medical care and it most certainly in their cases was the best option not least my daughter who had an urgent private scan that ruled out cancer
    Great!

    But don't you think everyone should be able to have an urgent scan, not just those who have the disposable income/savings to afford it?

    The reason the NHS is failing rich people is that too few poor people are getting early interventions. Doom loop.
    I'm sceptical private healthcare improves the overall provision. If a system is capacity constrained anyone bumped up the queue ipso facto pushes everyone else back. Possibly private medicine brings more money and investment into the system. Overall people care that they get the treatment and it's affordable and probably don't care whether they fund it through taxation or pay for it separately.

    Fundamentally I think private healthcare pushes provision towards ability to pay than to need. The American system is an extreme example of an inequitable and inefficient system like this.
    Private healthcare also provides examples of what is possible. My daughter had an issue. NHS slow motion ensues. Each specialist ordered a single test. Wait. Rule something out.... Waaaaait.

    The private chap ordered the MRI, Xray etc in advance. Then called us in. Then gave a diagnosis that turned out to be correct on the spot.
    The hypothesis to test here I think is that multiple tests are deemed not the best value use of a very limited budget. As you have plenty of spare money you are less constrained in your vfm calculation. So the question I think is whether multiple tests would be a good use of additional money being made available. I totally get your wanting the best for your daughter but someone aiming to get the best medical outcomes for a whole population needs to make trade offs. Treatment according to ability to pay rather on need undermines the objective of best medical outcomes for a population.
    The NHS way of doing it was to

    1) See a consultant
    2) He ordered a a test
    3) See the consultant
    4) Another test
    5) etc

    Test data is cheap compared to consultants time - and it is cheap (relatively) to buy more MRI machines, X ray machines and find the staff to run them. Consultants are *rare* and it takes a decade to make a new one.

    Tests *used* to be far more expensive.

    This is classic OR stuff.
    So why don't they order more tests in the state system? I am interested in the actual constraint, not private/public good/bad.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    There’s nothing like being in a city with no mains electricity to really make you appreciate… electricity

    Eg. No traffic lights

    My hotel’s private generator packed in this morning so we’ve had no power since 9am. No idea when it is returning

    How long can a society function like that?

    As long as it takes.
    As long as it takes to…. What? Neither side can win

    Putin’s offensive is no more effective than Ukraine’s offensive last year. And arguably more costly

    So a lot of people are dying for a war that seems to be going nowhere. My argument remains what it was last June. Seek an armistice. Divide Ukraine like Korea and then tool up so Putin doesn’t try this anywhere else

    And coming to Odessa you realise

    1. Thank god we have nukes. Build more nukes
    2. We need to be spending 3-4% on defence. It’s just a fact. The world is a more dangerous neighbourhood. Cut the pensions of the grasping old boomers and send the asylum seekers to Ireland
    I think either side can still win. At a minimum, Putin can win by getting the US to cut support then waiting until Ukraine runs out of ammunition. Ukraine can win the same way Vietnam, Afghanistan, Algeria and basically everyone else who gets invaded by a large country in the last 80 years wins, survive until the other side isn't prepared to pay the costs of invading someone else's country any more. I think each side also believes their version of this, which is why they're not negotiating.

    I'm not saying it's not worth talking but I think "Seek an armistice. Divide Ukraine like Korea and then tool up so Putin doesn’t try this anywhere else" doesn't work for Ukraine, because Russia will try this again *in the rest of Ukraine*. For this to work for Ukraine the Ukrainians need to be confident that he isn't going to restart the war in Ukraine. If all Russia wanted was some more territory then this might be doable by external parties (realistically the US) providing military support, but the problem here is that avoiding western militaries in Ukraine is *Russia's biggest objective for the entire thing*.

    I suppose you might be able to square it by sending NATO troops into Ukraine first, then negotiating with Putin to scale them back again. But if the US is going to be that gung-ho about risking turning a Ukraine-Russia war into a World War then they may as well just go ahead and win the war for Ukraine.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000

    Scott_xP said:

    @susannareid100

    “Rishi Sunak lied to the British public” - Labour on the £2k tax claim.

    I listened to a conservative adviser this morning who said that the party is delighted with the row as it takes Labour's NHS arguments off the table and highlights Labour and taxation and the longer it is drawn out the more they are content to discuss it

    Looks as if you are playing into their hands on this
    I am happy to repeat “Rishi Sunak lied to the British public” for as long as Tory advisers want me to
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 5
    Tory Gain in Montgomeryshire in Tuesdays by election, they are 2 for 2 during the campaign. Lolz
    Rhiwcynon
    AMY, Richard Edward, Welsh Liberal Democrats 74

    JONES, Ann Plaid Cymru 286

    JONES, Richard Breese, Independent 110

    LEWIS, Oliver, Reform UK 18

    MARKINSON, David, Independent 4

    PARFITT, Rhodri, The Green Party 13

    WIXEY, Paul, Welsh Labour 25

    YEOMANS, John Welsh, Conservative 352 (Elected)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000
    This is exactly what the Tories wanted...

    @TomSwarbrick1

    NEW: UK statistics watchdog confirms the Office for Statistics Regulation is investigating Rishi Sunak's claims that Labour's tax rises will cost families £2000 each.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390

    FF43 said:

    a

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    fitalass said:

    One of Sunak's better moments was the way he dealt with the gotcha question on private medical treatment with a straightforward "yes". Starmer's answer sounded like it belonged to another era and will be a hostage to fortune.

    I am still struggling with why Starmer would even dream of saying no to a question that most people like Sunak would not have even hesitated to say yes too, and I think there will be some cut through with that bizarre answer with those that were watching the debate.
    The correct answer for someone responsible for providing healthcare to the population is "if it's good enough for you, it's good enough for me." Starmer gave the correct answer; Sunak gave the incorrect answer.

    The issue I suppose is whether it's better to be believable than correct. As this is a political debate I'm not sure it is better.
    Good morning

    I simply do not believe Starmer would not put his family first in the circumstances of a medical emergency and his answer was simply political and dishonest
    Private care isn't about emergencies though. Emergency care is pretty much only via the NHS, which is why it matters to us all. A multimillionaire acquaintance of mine found this out when his mum fractured her hip. There is no alternative to the local Emergency Dept in that situation (Bangor in that case).

    If it was a requirement that all elected politicians could only use the NHS and State Schools then I suspect that this would concentrate their minds on improving things for the rest of us quite noticeably!
    Private healthcare is not without risk. After a close family member picked up a life threatening infection at a luxurious private hospital, which then had to be fixed by the NHS, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to reject the allure of quick fixes in the private sector and believe the NHS option is best.
    Because of course the NHS never has problems with its care. :
    Sure, but the point is that it’s perfectly reasonable to believe that private medicine is not the answer, nor the best option.
    Several members of my family have use private medical care and it most certainly in their cases was the best option not least my daughter who had an urgent private scan that ruled out cancer
    Great!

    But don't you think everyone should be able to have an urgent scan, not just those who have the disposable income/savings to afford it?

    The reason the NHS is failing rich people is that too few poor people are getting early interventions. Doom loop.
    I'm sceptical private healthcare improves the overall provision. If a system is capacity constrained anyone bumped up the queue ipso facto pushes everyone else back. Possibly private medicine brings more money and investment into the system. Overall people care that they get the treatment and it's affordable and probably don't care whether they fund it through taxation or pay for it separately.

    Fundamentally I think private healthcare pushes provision towards ability to pay than to need. The American system is an extreme example of an inequitable and inefficient system like this.
    Private healthcare also provides examples of what is possible. My daughter had an issue. NHS slow motion ensues. Each specialist ordered a single test. Wait. Rule something out.... Waaaaait.

    The private chap ordered the MRI, Xray etc in advance. Then called us in. Then gave a diagnosis that turned out to be correct on the spot.
    The hypothesis to test here I think is that multiple tests are deemed not the best value use of a very limited budget. As you have plenty of spare money you are less constrained in your vfm calculation. So the question I think is whether multiple tests would be a good use of additional money being made available. I totally get your wanting the best for your daughter but someone aiming to get the best medical outcomes for a whole population needs to make trade offs. Treatment according to ability to pay rather on need undermines the objective of best medical outcomes for a population.
    The NHS way of doing it was to

    1) See a consultant
    2) He ordered a a test
    3) See the consultant
    4) Another test
    5) etc

    Test data is cheap compared to consultants time - and it is cheap (relatively) to buy more MRI machines, X ray machines and find the staff to run them. Consultants are *rare* and it takes a decade to make a new one.

    Tests *used* to be far more expensive.

    This is classic OR stuff.

    EDIT: The other classic NHS thing is joined up behaviour. Or lack of it. A relative, in hospital, just nearly died from neglect. The operation was a brilliant success - but the patient nearly died. It took a letter to the head of the Trust to get someone to pull their finger out.
    Actually MRI's are restricted with say 1 per hospital while there is more than 1 consultant in a hospital.

    I noticed this last week were Clinical Decisions had a sign saying they had 1 MRI slot a day (because otherwise it's fully booked x weeks in advance).

    Now the fix is definitely more MRI machines but they are expensive to purchase maintain and run...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @susannareid100

    “Rishi Sunak lied to the British public” - Labour on the £2k tax claim.

    I listened to a conservative adviser this morning who said that the party is delighted with the row as it takes Labour's NHS arguments off the table and highlights Labour and taxation and the longer it is drawn out the more they are content to discuss it

    Looks as if you are playing into their hands on this
    I am happy to repeat “Rishi Sunak lied to the British public” for as long as Tory advisers want me to
    Of course you are and keeping Labour and taxes on the agenda works for the conservatives
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,983
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile

    PB CYCLISTS. And LAWYERS.

    A question.

    Aunt last night driving home was waiting at a traffic light junction to turn right across traffic. Opposite direction traffic backed up and static leaving a gap for the right turn. Lights green. Bus is first in the line ahead of the junction and waves her on. She moves across and is hit head on by a cyclist undertaking the bus. Chaos ensues. My aunt says the cyclist was going very fast but his (and her) light was green.

    Who's at fault.

    Picture showing junction and from direction of travel of aunt (my one of the month).

    Your aunt.
    Thanks

    Not sure.
    Thanks (and thanks all). My aunt is v happy to make amends, even if legally she was in the right (which it seems she wasn't by the comments here).

    My question I suppose was what was the mechanism of the legal/insurance process.

    The cyclist has written to her saying she was in the wrong, right of way, etc, and is going to get the bike assessed and expects to be made good. No one has yet mentioned insurance or police.
    I would snap that offer up!

    However, I think you have to report the collision to the police if anyone was injured - I think that must be quite likely? And the insurer will likely require that they are informed too.

    I would invoke @MattW at this point
    Long answer, which I hope is helpful. I think all 3 parties made mistakes.

    The bus driver wove (waved?) a party across a traffic lane (the cycle lane) he could not control, giving her false reassurance (was he mislead by looking in his NS mirror?). Since it is a backed up box junction the bus driver wasn't allowed to enter it anyway - the exit has to be clear to enter, unless they will be waiting to turn right.

    The cyclist riding up the cycle lane has priority over oncoming turning traffic, in the same way as any other vehicle driving along a road does. If he was going as fast as stated, then I'd consider his cycling to be on the scale somewhere between insufficiently cautious and negligent, due to the difficulty he created for himself of seeing round the bus in time to stop.

    My comments on your aunt would be similar - she should imo have paused halfway across to have a look round the bus, and the fact of the collision is that she went across oncoming traffic.

    Plus there is the Duty of Care to vulnerable road users under the Hierarchy of Responsibility.

    If it comes to Civil Court or insurance negotiations I'd expect any assessed amount to be reduced modestly or substantially due to contributory negligence by the cyclist.

    On what should be reported, it is more extensive than I realised but I suspect non-injury accidents are not always reported. May be worth reporting mentioning "non-injury but damage accident" as a way of getting an official record of "non-injury"?
    https://www.police.uk/advice/advice-and-information/rs/road-safety/collisions/

    In the circs either snap up that offer or hand it over to the insurance company to deal with, perhaps in dialogue with the cyclist's insurer, and consider whether there is a need to report to the police. Hope both are well and your mum has protected no claims. Most cyclists have 3rd Party Liability via at least household insurance, though many do not know it - this one may have specialist insurance too. Bike damage could be several k.

    Obvs if she takes up the offer don't admit total fault in writing as that could undermine future positions, and sound fluffy but straight forward ("I am glad to hear that you have no injuries"). But we all know that type of thing here.

    Get your mum to make written contemporaneous notes, dictating to you if necessary.

    I'd say consider getting the CCTV from the cameras on the bus (Service Access Request under Data Protection Act, mentioning time / date / location and describing your mum's car), and/or preserve dashcam footage from your mum, just in case.

    There was a recent cyclist-on-cyclist one in Scotland where civil legal action was not initiated for a considerable time (2 years iirc), so capture and file the data as an insurance policy.
    Thank you so much fantastic points and will be conveyed. To my aunt btw (not that it affects the advice at all - my mother is 94 and if she took to a car I would press the red button and get all other road users off the road up to a 1,000 mile radius).

    Thanks again
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,671
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So much winning...

    @e_casalicchio

    NEW: UK stats watchdog looking into Conservative claim about their tax attack on Labour being from independent HMT civil servants

    The civil service seems to be a bit too politically active for my liking, regardless of the rights and wrongs of this case.
    What part of the civil service saying don't say the figures come from us is political...
    I don't think we need the "stats watchdog" to look into it.

    Will they be looking into everything Starmer says too?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Tabby said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tabby said:

    The Sun seems to be backing the Conservatives right now. They've backed the winner in every general election since 1974.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/28309634/moments-tough-talking-rishi-won-key-voters/

    I'm not convinced Reform won't take most of their votes from Labour.

    But whatever happens, I can't see the Sun backing the Tories right up until the morning of election day and then Labour winning a landslide.

    I think the only election where they backed a loser was 1970, but that was part of the deal when Murdoch bought it in 1969 - that it would continue to support Labour for ten years, even though having read their 1970 election coverage they did it rather reluctantly.

    But the Sun is not the force it was.
    And it's very likely that the Sun will (reluctantly) change it's mind on July 3rd / 4th because it wants to say it won it.
    The Wednesday is more important than the Thursday. It's possible they will only come out in favour of voting Labour just before election day, but my feeling is that if the polls stay constant (which they won't) they'll be backing Labour somewhat earlier.

    But they won't say they won it. They got their fingers rapped for saying that.

    The media landscape has changed. They want to be able to pitch themselves as an insurgent a la GBeebies. There’s nothing for them in backing Labour. The run of backing the winner has to end sometime. There’s no immutable law that says it has to be so.
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Nigel Farage today calls for a full inquiry into covid vaccine harms following the telegraph article yesterday.
    Reform to run on the tories poisoned ypu and your kids with a dangerous vaccine

    This from Farage

    "Today the Telegraph reported Covid vaccines may have helped fuel rise in excess deaths.

    At last others are waking up to the need for a full, immediate inquiry into vaccine harms"

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1798289552232341860

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So much winning...

    @e_casalicchio

    NEW: UK stats watchdog looking into Conservative claim about their tax attack on Labour being from independent HMT civil servants

    The civil service seems to be a bit too politically active for my liking, regardless of the rights and wrongs of this case.
    What part of the civil service saying don't say the figures come from us is political...
    I don't think we need the "stats watchdog" to look into it.

    Will they be looking into everything Starmer says too?
    If Starmer says it's a treasury figure, and the treasury says it isn't, then yes.
  • novanova Posts: 692

    Scott_xP said:

    @susannareid100

    “Rishi Sunak lied to the British public” - Labour on the £2k tax claim.

    I listened to a conservative adviser this morning who said that the party is delighted with the row as it takes Labour's NHS arguments off the table and highlights Labour and taxation and the longer it is drawn out the more they are content to discuss it

    Looks as if you are playing into their hands on this
    I think it will depend how it plays out.

    I suspect that after the £350m on the side of a bus, it's a dangerous tactic. That really cut through at the time, despite it being obviously wrong, but the fact that it didn't happen is also pretty well known.

    If it becomes a debate about the facts of the £2000, the Tories will be happy. However, it's looking like it will come down to a debate about Rishi lying, and I don't think he has the bluster of Gove, Farage or Johnson, that can easily bat away that accusation.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000
    @TelePolitics

    🔴 Labour challenges Tories to TV debate over £2,000 tax claim
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    148grss said:

    eek said:

    Thinking about Rishi's tax comment

    Many people will be thinking £2000 over 4 years isn't as bad as their feared - that was Mrs Eek's reaction..

    I had assumed it was over a year and was still like "well if that means the wait in A&E isn't 8 hours that's still worth it"... Though, tbf, I'm on less than the median income so also assumed I wouldn't be looking at that full £2000.
    Yes I would happily pay an extra £400pa taxes if public services benefit.

    Unfortunately not everybody thinks like that and most of SKS's plans to improve matters dont stand up to even a tiny amount of scrutiny.

    From using private healthcare to improve waiting lists to using GB Energy to reduce energy prices when all it is, is a PFI private sector benefit investment scheme to building new buildings that already existed since 2021.

    The list goes on and on.

    How much any of that will matter is open to debate as the one word CHANGE after 14 yrs is very persuasive for your less picky voter

    I think a 20 to 50 Maj now looks likely as a bare minimum which is a pity because i have a lot to win on NOM
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    And this now from David Davis.

    This is a serious report, published by serious people. The potential link between Covid vaccines and excess deaths needs to be properly investigated, in the interest of public health and forming the best vaccine strategy for future pandemics.

    https://x.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1798031815745368229
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000
    Tories want a debate about the number.

    They got a debate about honesty.

    Oops.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100

    Tory Gain in Montgomeryshire in Tuesdays by election, they are 2 for 2 during the campaign. Lolz
    Rhiwcynon
    AMY, Richard Edward, Welsh Liberal Democrats 74

    JONES, Ann Plaid Cymru 286

    JONES, Richard Breese, Independent 110

    LEWIS, Oliver, Reform UK 18

    MARKINSON, David, Independent 4

    PARFITT, Rhodri, The Green Party 13

    WIXEY, Paul, Welsh Labour 25

    YEOMANS, John Welsh, Conservative 352 (Elected)

    The interesting thing about Welsh politics is not the terrible prospects for conservative mps on the 4th July but just what's happens in the Senedd in 2026 when Welsh Labour cannot blame Westminster for its woes
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    The covid narrative is collapsing now as even the ny times admitted covid leaked from a lab.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    Tory Gain in Montgomeryshire in Tuesdays by election, they are 2 for 2 during the campaign. Lolz
    Rhiwcynon
    AMY, Richard Edward, Welsh Liberal Democrats 74

    JONES, Ann Plaid Cymru 286

    JONES, Richard Breese, Independent 110

    LEWIS, Oliver, Reform UK 18

    MARKINSON, David, Independent 4

    PARFITT, Rhodri, The Green Party 13

    WIXEY, Paul, Welsh Labour 25

    YEOMANS, John Welsh, Conservative 352 (Elected)

    Conservative gain from Independent in a ward that they only lost by 8 votes in 2022 and with a reduced share of the vote.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000
    With TSE indisposed, can @rcs1000 deputise the ban-hammer to someone else?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Really loud air raid sirens

    Really quiet ones wouldn't be much good, would they?
    The loudness seems to have no perceptible effect on the locals. They shrug

    I can also report that WE ARE STILL LOVED. Just been asked where I’m from

    “England.”

    Bar girl, looking genuinely amazed and delighted:

    “England??! Wow! I love your country!!”

    So coming here you have a 1.3% chance of being droned by Putin BUT it’s good for your national morale
    Did you tell her it was a shithole destroyed by woke which you'd be avoiding as much as possible in the sunset of your life?
    I’m not sure of that was meant ironically. Anyway, have to run, MI5 pay me to look at LinkedIn profiles, not PB.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    DM_Andy said:


    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    ydoethur said:

    BBC saying that Gething is likely to lose a VONC in Wales due to 2 Lab members being "ill" (one is the lady that he sacked for leaking).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv224x3pmv9o

    I know all the focus is on the GE at the moment, but it feels that Labour in Wales "ought" to be beatable in 2026 as they've been in power even longer than Con in Westminster and SNP in Holyrood

    They've just rigged the electoral system to make that damn near impossible. Thread header intended to follow when I have a moment.
    No it's not impossible to beat Labour in Wales. All the Conservatives or Plaid Cymru need to do is get more people to vote for them.
    You think Plaid will back the Tories over Labour?

    I'm inviting offers for the Prince of Wales Bridge. Will you bid?
    That's not what I'm saying in the slightest. I'm saying that the electoral system isn't rigged in favour of Labour. If the Conservatives get more votes in a Senedd election than Labour then they will win more seats than Labour. I would have thought there was no need to say that.
    The new electoral system would not guarantee that. In any way whatsoever.

    I really need to find time for that thread header...
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    And this

    Facebook is in BIG TROUBLE.

    It has just been discovered that the Facebook Covid vaccine Fat-Checkers are funded by vaccine companies

    https://x.com/myhiddenvalue/status/1798256358619537896
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,873

    Tory Gain in Montgomeryshire in Tuesdays by election, they are 2 for 2 during the campaign. Lolz
    Rhiwcynon
    AMY, Richard Edward, Welsh Liberal Democrats 74

    JONES, Ann Plaid Cymru 286

    JONES, Richard Breese, Independent 110

    LEWIS, Oliver, Reform UK 18

    MARKINSON, David, Independent 4

    PARFITT, Rhodri, The Green Party 13

    WIXEY, Paul, Welsh Labour 25

    YEOMANS, John Welsh, Conservative 352 (Elected)

    The interesting thing about Welsh politics is not the terrible prospects for conservative mps on the 4th July but just what's happens in the Senedd in 2026 when Welsh Labour cannot blame Westminster for its woes
    Not really relevant. WL claims to be a separate entity from the Labour one in Westminster, with some autonomy, same as ScotLab do. So that will still play.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,418
    29 days to go. At this point in the 2017GE campaign the latest polls gave Tory leads of 22%, 16% and 17%.

    The last three polls this time have Labour leads of 23%, 14% and 17%.

    The campaign topic of the day is the tax-increasing policies of the party with a large poll lead.

    Deja vu?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    sbjme19 said:

    ToryJim said:

    viewcode said:

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 NEW: Tory candidate Tom Hunt is considering defecting to Reform UK after a row with party chairman Richard Holden

    [@Steven_Swinford]

    "Considering". Oh, the manliness just seeps off the page, does it not?
    If he was that attracted to Farage and Reform he’d just do it. By letting sources know he’s toying with defecting he’s proving that it’s calculation that is determinative. Odd little boy.

    The burghers of Ipswich deserve a better choice than a spoilt manchild who can’t make his mind up which way he swings.
    He's been a bit special since having no ID at the locals and then penning a weird article for Conhome about Susan Hall actually having been vg....
    He’s always been rather weird
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Not having a horse in the race, I didn't bother watching the debate, and overall it seems to have been a wash, with pretty much everyone without a starting bias rating it as a draw.

    On the one hand that seems almost a victory for Sunak: I expected him to be dreadful in this, so not being dreadful is a bit of a win. He probably should be quietly pleased with that bit of it.

    On the other hand, a draw isn't going to do the Cons much good - when even Con supporters are now presenting a potential 1997 scenario as a 'good' result, then you know they're in dire straits, and what the Cons need from their leader is a massive win, both to boost their own confidence and to draw some undecided voters their way. Under the headline 51/49 or 50/50, Sunak (and the Tories) are still rated as worse in every policy area tha Starmer and Labour. And this morning's unravelling of the £2000 tax claim is another advent calendar window for me.

    I feel a slight temptation to watch the 7-way debate now - not for either of these two, but to see how the smaller parties aim their fire - firing squad for Rishi, or carving out their own territories around the edges of the imminent Empire of Labour?

    My expectation for the 7 way is that Reform will attack Con for not being right wing enough, LD will attack Con for being too right wing, while Green, Plaid and SNP will attack Labour for not being left wing enough. Lab and Con will mainly attack each other and ignore the rest.
    With Mordaunt and Rayner in it could be quite interesting. I am out on Friday at a gathering of the WI. They have an annual BBQ that permits men, and there will be both LD and Con local councillors present so may come back with some anecdata.

    The deputies will alter the dynamic. Penny is a good speaker generally, but I was surprised how poor she was in the leadership debates. Rayner has charisma and humour, but can be a loose cannon. Worth watching on catch up.
    The debate on Friday clashes directly with the England football match, which is live on terrestrial TV and after which Southgate has to name his final squad. Which utter clown is responsible for such moronic scheduling?
    Really - mind you it can be recorded
    I'll record it. But to do so really is the domain of ultra political nerds. Most people will watch the football – it's a friendly, but as it might well determine Southgate's final squad, it really matters.
    Not sure most people will watch England in a friendly, different if in competition
    Wanna bet?
    I don't particularly enjoy watching men's football, and find the England men's team irritating. And I'm well above average in my interest in politics. But I'm still more likely to watch a meaningless friendly which I MIGHT be irritated and unentertained by than a debate which I know I will find irritating and unentertaining.
    Basically, who do I want to invite into my house - Gareth Southgate or Rishi Sunak and the rest of the weirdos? Clearly Gareth. Even if he does make some tediously unadventurous tactical choices and even if he is tediously woke.

    Generalising wildly from myself therefore, more people will watch a meaningless football match than a debate among political party leaders.

    All academic in my case as I'll be at Old Trafford watching cricket. But still.
    Point of order

    The Friday debate is between Mordaunt and Rayner plus other leaders - Sunak and Starmer will not be there
    Will be more interesting, I think. Mordaunt versus Rayner would be interesting, somewhat diluted by the others.

    Rayner v Sunak would be a massacre, I think. Possibly also Mordaunt versus Starmer, but to a lesser extent. In both I think the women would come out comfortably on top.
    Are there any other ladies on Friday or are the rest all blokes?
    Assuming it's otherwise all leaders then it depends which one the Greens put up, I think?
    I think that assumption is wrong and that Daisy Cooper is the Lib Dem on this one.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 646
    edited June 5

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone called Peter Inglesby has designed a tool that puts all the MRP results together for each constituency.

    https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

    Quite a range across the different methodologies/firms:


    I've just spent the first part of my lunch break counting up how many seats have the same winner in all 7. Sad, I know.

    Lab -347
    Con - 33
    LD - 15
    SNP - 9
    PC- 2

    I may have miscounted slightly, especially Labour, (I just eyeballed it) but that means between the models, 226 constituencies are in play - that is an astonishingly large number.

    Between them, the wide variations in overall methodologies and changes in support in multiple directions since 2019 mean that nobody can be really sure what's going on and it wouldn't surprise me if we get some very strange results if the polls don't change significantly.

    EDIT - I didn't even count up how many surveys there were correctly. So treat my numbers accordingly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,428

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Really loud air raid sirens

    Really quiet ones wouldn't be much good, would they?
    The loudness seems to have no perceptible effect on the locals. They shrug

    I can also report that WE ARE STILL LOVED. Just been asked where I’m from

    “England.”

    Bar girl, looking genuinely amazed and delighted:

    “England??! Wow! I love your country!!”

    So coming here you have a 1.3% chance of being droned by Putin BUT it’s good for your national morale
    Did you tell her it was a shithole destroyed by woke which you'd be avoiding as much as possible in the sunset of your life?
    Nyet
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    major new peer-reviewed study into the “unprecedented” global excess deaths figures has concluded that Covid mRNA shots are directly responsible.

    The large-scale study analyzed the mortality data from 47 individual countries and was published in the world-renowned British Medical Journal (BMJ).

    The scientists concluded that the Covid mRNA injections are to blame for the soaring excess deaths seen around the world since the pandemic.

    Researchers from The Netherlands analyzed data from 47 Western countries and discovered there had been more than three million excess deaths since 2020.

    They found that the trend continued despite the rollout of vaccines and containment measures which were meant to protect the public from COVID-19.

    They said the “unprecedented” figures “raised serious concerns.”

    They are now calling on governments to fully investigate the role of vaccines in the mass deaths of humans on a global scale.

    Writing in the BMJ Public Health, the authors from Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, said:

    “Although COVID-19 vaccines were provided to guard civilians from suffering morbidity and mortality by the COVID-19 virus, suspected adverse events have been documented as well.
    “Both medical professionals and citizens have reported serious injuries and deaths following vaccination to various official databases in the Western World.”

    They added: “During the pandemic, it was emphasised by politicians and the media on a daily basis that every COVID-19 death mattered and every life deserved protection through containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines.

    “In the aftermath of the pandemic, the same moral should apply.”

    The study found that across Europe, the U.S., and Australia there had been more than one million excess deaths in 2020, at the height of the pandemic.

    https://x.com/newstart_2024/status/1798072768757637491
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Cicero said:

    Eabhal said:

    tlg86 said:

    Another political conviction...

    Thrill-seeking Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey landed himself in court for a speeding conviction after admitting he is “super-busy” and blundered when giving his details to police

    https://x.com/EveningStandard/status/1798286354649911641

    At least he didn't try to get his wife to take the points, so there is that.

    73 in the roadworks (60 limit). Not as naughty as The King of the North:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/25/andy-burnham-fined-six-penalty-points-speeding-m62

    Manchester mayor ordered to pay £1,984 after admitting doing 78mph in section where limit had been cut to 40mph
    78 in a 40 should really be a short ban.
    Why?
    Because it’s contemptuous of the limit. It’s not pushing the limit, it’s sticking two fingers up at the limit, before pissing on its front door.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,584
    "Keir Starmer’s disdain for Sunak does him no favours
    Yet as Sunak will know from his jousts with Liz Truss, winning a debate does not necessarily guarantee success at the ballot box

    John Curtice"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/keir-starmers-disdain-for-sunak-does-him-no-favours/
  • Newdawn said:

    And this

    Facebook is in BIG TROUBLE.

    It has just been discovered that the Facebook Covid vaccine Fat-Checkers are funded by vaccine companies

    https://x.com/myhiddenvalue/status/1798256358619537896

    OH DO FUCK OFF YOU WANKER
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:


    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    ydoethur said:

    BBC saying that Gething is likely to lose a VONC in Wales due to 2 Lab members being "ill" (one is the lady that he sacked for leaking).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv224x3pmv9o

    I know all the focus is on the GE at the moment, but it feels that Labour in Wales "ought" to be beatable in 2026 as they've been in power even longer than Con in Westminster and SNP in Holyrood

    They've just rigged the electoral system to make that damn near impossible. Thread header intended to follow when I have a moment.
    No it's not impossible to beat Labour in Wales. All the Conservatives or Plaid Cymru need to do is get more people to vote for them.
    You think Plaid will back the Tories over Labour?

    I'm inviting offers for the Prince of Wales Bridge. Will you bid?
    That's not what I'm saying in the slightest. I'm saying that the electoral system isn't rigged in favour of Labour. If the Conservatives get more votes in a Senedd election than Labour then they will win more seats than Labour. I would have thought there was no need to say that.
    The new electoral system would not guarantee that. In any way whatsoever.

    I really need to find time for that thread header...
    I'll look forward to that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    Scott_xP said:

    @TelePolitics

    🔴 Labour challenges Tories to TV debate over £2,000 tax claim

    Excellent - just what the conservatives would want
  • Newdawn said:

    major new peer-reviewed study into the “unprecedented” global excess deaths figures has concluded that Covid mRNA shots are directly responsible.

    The large-scale study analyzed the mortality data from 47 individual countries and was published in the world-renowned British Medical Journal (BMJ).

    The scientists concluded that the Covid mRNA injections are to blame for the soaring excess deaths seen around the world since the pandemic.

    Researchers from The Netherlands analyzed data from 47 Western countries and discovered there had been more than three million excess deaths since 2020.

    They found that the trend continued despite the rollout of vaccines and containment measures which were meant to protect the public from COVID-19.

    They said the “unprecedented” figures “raised serious concerns.”

    They are now calling on governments to fully investigate the role of vaccines in the mass deaths of humans on a global scale.

    Writing in the BMJ Public Health, the authors from Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, said:

    “Although COVID-19 vaccines were provided to guard civilians from suffering morbidity and mortality by the COVID-19 virus, suspected adverse events have been documented as well.
    “Both medical professionals and citizens have reported serious injuries and deaths following vaccination to various official databases in the Western World.”

    They added: “During the pandemic, it was emphasised by politicians and the media on a daily basis that every COVID-19 death mattered and every life deserved protection through containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines.

    “In the aftermath of the pandemic, the same moral should apply.”

    The study found that across Europe, the U.S., and Australia there had been more than one million excess deaths in 2020, at the height of the pandemic.

    https://x.com/newstart_2024/status/1798072768757637491

    FUCKING PRICK
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Farooq said:

    Newdawn said:

    Nigel Farage today calls for a full inquiry into covid vaccine harms following the telegraph article yesterday.
    Reform to run on the tories poisoned ypu and your kids with a dangerous vaccine

    This from Farage

    "Today the Telegraph reported Covid vaccines may have helped fuel rise in excess deaths.

    At last others are waking up to the need for a full, immediate inquiry into vaccine harms"

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1798289552232341860

    Welcome back, and goodbye
    Farage aint going anywhere. Hes on the case.
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Trust in vaccines is likely to be destroyed avross the west. Ordinary people are talking about this stuff now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,428
    Putin is close to wiping out all mobile and internet coverage here in Odessa. Just been told by “a fixer”

    That’s quite the test for a modern society

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    a

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    fitalass said:

    One of Sunak's better moments was the way he dealt with the gotcha question on private medical treatment with a straightforward "yes". Starmer's answer sounded like it belonged to another era and will be a hostage to fortune.

    I am still struggling with why Starmer would even dream of saying no to a question that most people like Sunak would not have even hesitated to say yes too, and I think there will be some cut through with that bizarre answer with those that were watching the debate.
    The correct answer for someone responsible for providing healthcare to the population is "if it's good enough for you, it's good enough for me." Starmer gave the correct answer; Sunak gave the incorrect answer.

    The issue I suppose is whether it's better to be believable than correct. As this is a political debate I'm not sure it is better.
    Good morning

    I simply do not believe Starmer would not put his family first in the circumstances of a medical emergency and his answer was simply political and dishonest
    Private care isn't about emergencies though. Emergency care is pretty much only via the NHS, which is why it matters to us all. A multimillionaire acquaintance of mine found this out when his mum fractured her hip. There is no alternative to the local Emergency Dept in that situation (Bangor in that case).

    If it was a requirement that all elected politicians could only use the NHS and State Schools then I suspect that this would concentrate their minds on improving things for the rest of us quite noticeably!
    Private healthcare is not without risk. After a close family member picked up a life threatening infection at a luxurious private hospital, which then had to be fixed by the NHS, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to reject the allure of quick fixes in the private sector and believe the NHS option is best.
    Because of course the NHS never has problems with its care. :
    Sure, but the point is that it’s perfectly reasonable to believe that private medicine is not the answer, nor the best option.
    Several members of my family have use private medical care and it most certainly in their cases was the best option not least my daughter who had an urgent private scan that ruled out cancer
    Great!

    But don't you think everyone should be able to have an urgent scan, not just those who have the disposable income/savings to afford it?

    The reason the NHS is failing rich people is that too few poor people are getting early interventions. Doom loop.
    I'm sceptical private healthcare improves the overall provision. If a system is capacity constrained anyone bumped up the queue ipso facto pushes everyone else back. Possibly private medicine brings more money and investment into the system. Overall people care that they get the treatment and it's affordable and probably don't care whether they fund it through taxation or pay for it separately.

    Fundamentally I think private healthcare pushes provision towards ability to pay than to need. The American system is an extreme example of an inequitable and inefficient system like this.
    Private healthcare also provides examples of what is possible. My daughter had an issue. NHS slow motion ensues. Each specialist ordered a single test. Wait. Rule something out.... Waaaaait.

    The private chap ordered the MRI, Xray etc in advance. Then called us in. Then gave a diagnosis that turned out to be correct on the spot.
    The hypothesis to test here I think is that multiple tests are deemed not the best value use of a very limited budget. As you have plenty of spare money you are less constrained in your vfm calculation. So the question I think is whether multiple tests would be a good use of additional money being made available. I totally get your wanting the best for your daughter but someone aiming to get the best medical outcomes for a whole population needs to make trade offs. Treatment according to ability to pay rather on need undermines the objective of best medical outcomes for a population.
    The NHS way of doing it was to

    1) See a consultant
    2) He ordered a a test
    3) See the consultant
    4) Another test
    5) etc

    Test data is cheap compared to consultants time - and it is cheap (relatively) to buy more MRI machines, X ray machines and find the staff to run them. Consultants are *rare* and it takes a decade to make a new one.

    Tests *used* to be far more expensive.

    This is classic OR stuff.
    So why don't they order more tests in the state system? I am interested in the actual constraint, not private/public good/bad.
    I've used the NHS a lot - both my daughters had lots of medical fun as small children. My brother has had some in depth experiences as well.

    The NHS culture seems to be very anti "order all the tests in advance". This in turn seems to be rooted in a belief that testing is expensive and complex.

    The private consultant in my eldest daughter's case said that he pretty much knew what the answer was before he saw us - because all the tests were negative.
  • Newdawn said:

    Trust in vaccines is likely to be destroyed avross the west. Ordinary people are talking about this stuff now.

    OH SOD OFF YOU FUCKING FUCK
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Sad for doctors like foxy who are now tarred with the stench of corruption after doctors received payments for giving the vaccine.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    Newdawn said:

    Nigel Farage today calls for a full inquiry into covid vaccine harms following the telegraph article yesterday.
    Reform to run on the tories poisoned ypu and your kids with a dangerous vaccine

    This from Farage

    "Today the Telegraph reported Covid vaccines may have helped fuel rise in excess deaths.

    At last others are waking up to the need for a full, immediate inquiry into vaccine harms"

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1798289552232341860

    A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    Carnyx said:

    Tory Gain in Montgomeryshire in Tuesdays by election, they are 2 for 2 during the campaign. Lolz
    Rhiwcynon
    AMY, Richard Edward, Welsh Liberal Democrats 74

    JONES, Ann Plaid Cymru 286

    JONES, Richard Breese, Independent 110

    LEWIS, Oliver, Reform UK 18

    MARKINSON, David, Independent 4

    PARFITT, Rhodri, The Green Party 13

    WIXEY, Paul, Welsh Labour 25

    YEOMANS, John Welsh, Conservative 352 (Elected)

    The interesting thing about Welsh politics is not the terrible prospects for conservative mps on the 4th July but just what's happens in the Senedd in 2026 when Welsh Labour cannot blame Westminster for its woes
    Not really relevant. WL claims to be a separate entity from the Labour one in Westminster, with some autonomy, same as ScotLab do. So that will still play.
    Drakeford blamed the conservative government for all the woes but of course in 2026 Labour will be the government
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Leon said:

    Putin is close to wiping out all mobile and internet coverage here in Odessa. Just been told by “a fixer”

    That’s quite the test for a modern society

    Ukraine is fonished mate. Its all over bar the shouting. Sad
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000
    @UKLabour

    Rishi Sunak lies. This is about his character 👇

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1798308912459911404
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,418
    Pulpstar said:

    I expect the Conservative tax attack on Labour is accurate, but is also precisely what they'll do in the round too.

    £2k per capita over four years is £35bn per year, less if it's per person in employment. Current budget deficit is £125bn.

    Hard to dispute your conclusion.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,030
    How long before our new dawn is broken?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,746

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Not having a horse in the race, I didn't bother watching the debate, and overall it seems to have been a wash, with pretty much everyone without a starting bias rating it as a draw.

    On the one hand that seems almost a victory for Sunak: I expected him to be dreadful in this, so not being dreadful is a bit of a win. He probably should be quietly pleased with that bit of it.

    On the other hand, a draw isn't going to do the Cons much good - when even Con supporters are now presenting a potential 1997 scenario as a 'good' result, then you know they're in dire straits, and what the Cons need from their leader is a massive win, both to boost their own confidence and to draw some undecided voters their way. Under the headline 51/49 or 50/50, Sunak (and the Tories) are still rated as worse in every policy area tha Starmer and Labour. And this morning's unravelling of the £2000 tax claim is another advent calendar window for me.

    I feel a slight temptation to watch the 7-way debate now - not for either of these two, but to see how the smaller parties aim their fire - firing squad for Rishi, or carving out their own territories around the edges of the imminent Empire of Labour?

    My expectation for the 7 way is that Reform will attack Con for not being right wing enough, LD will attack Con for being too right wing, while Green, Plaid and SNP will attack Labour for not being left wing enough. Lab and Con will mainly attack each other and ignore the rest.
    With Mordaunt and Rayner in it could be quite interesting. I am out on Friday at a gathering of the WI. They have an annual BBQ that permits men, and there will be both LD and Con local councillors present so may come back with some anecdata.

    The deputies will alter the dynamic. Penny is a good speaker generally, but I was surprised how poor she was in the leadership debates. Rayner has charisma and humour, but can be a loose cannon. Worth watching on catch up.
    The debate on Friday clashes directly with the England football match, which is live on terrestrial TV and after which Southgate has to name his final squad. Which utter clown is responsible for such moronic scheduling?
    Really - mind you it can be recorded
    I'll record it. But to do so really is the domain of ultra political nerds. Most people will watch the football – it's a friendly, but as it might well determine Southgate's final squad, it really matters.
    Not sure most people will watch England in a friendly, different if in competition
    Wanna bet?
    I don't particularly enjoy watching men's football, and find the England men's team irritating. And I'm well above average in my interest in politics. But I'm still more likely to watch a meaningless friendly which I MIGHT be irritated and unentertained by than a debate which I know I will find irritating and unentertaining.
    Basically, who do I want to invite into my house - Gareth Southgate or Rishi Sunak and the rest of the weirdos? Clearly Gareth. Even if he does make some tediously unadventurous tactical choices and even if he is tediously woke.

    Generalising wildly from myself therefore, more people will watch a meaningless football match than a debate among political party leaders.

    All academic in my case as I'll be at Old Trafford watching cricket. But still.
    Point of order

    The Friday debate is between Mordaunt and Rayner plus other leaders - Sunak and Starmer will not be there
    Will be more interesting, I think. Mordaunt versus Rayner would be interesting, somewhat diluted by the others.

    Rayner v Sunak would be a massacre, I think. Possibly also Mordaunt versus Starmer, but to a lesser extent. In both I think the women would come out comfortably on top.
    Are there any other ladies on Friday or are the rest all blokes?
    Assuming it's otherwise all leaders then it depends which one the Greens put up, I think?
    I think that assumption is wrong and that Daisy Cooper is the Lib Dem on this one.
    Ah, be interesting to see more of her. A little surprised that Davey wouldn't take the chance to boost his profile, though it may be that Cooper would be the better performer in a debate.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    Farooq said:

    Newdawn said:

    Nigel Farage today calls for a full inquiry into covid vaccine harms following the telegraph article yesterday.
    Reform to run on the tories poisoned ypu and your kids with a dangerous vaccine

    This from Farage

    "Today the Telegraph reported Covid vaccines may have helped fuel rise in excess deaths.

    At last others are waking up to the need for a full, immediate inquiry into vaccine harms"

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1798289552232341860

    Welcome back, and goodbye
    In the Culture novel, Excession, there is a scene where one ship tells another "Goodbye", after being told the other is going to do something stupid. When questioned, the first ship says "*I'm* not going anywhere"
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Newdawn said:

    Sad for doctors like foxy who are now tarred with the stench of corruption after doctors received payments for giving the vaccine.

    Fuck off jolly green jizzface.
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Ukraine is Doomed.

    There's Really no Way to Rescue the Situation Here.

    John Mearsheimer:
    But my sense is that deep down at this point in time, most people fully understand that Ukraine is doomed.
    The only interesting question at this point in time
    is how much territory are the Russians going to
    capture before this turns into a frozen conflict?
    But there's really no way to rescue the situation here.
    The Ukrainians are simply doomed.
    They can't fix the manpower problem.
    And with regard to the weaponry problem, we
    don't have the weaponry to give them.
    And we're not going to be able to spin up the industrial base to provide them, even in 2025, with enough weaponry to rescue the situation.
    But, again, even if we give them the
    weaponry, they have a huge manpower problem.
    And the Russians just get stronger and stronger.
    Putin is on a roll.
    The Russians are on a roll.
    So I think that what you're going to see here is what I call an ugly russian victory.


    https://x.com/ivan_8848/status/1797783864607195599
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,428
    Cumulative immigration to UK since 2021:
    India: 670k
    Nigeria: 310k
    China: 274k
    Pakistan: 166k
    HK: 131k
    Ukraine: 108k
    Even if u subtract students you're talking abt 301k from India & 103k from Nigeria.
    Whatever your priors on migration, there's no disputing these are BIG numbers.

    https://x.com/edconwaysky/status/1798005491672678768?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Absolute fucking insanity. May the Tories die in their stupid ditch and never recover
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Leon is partially correct but where he is wrong is ukraine soon wont have the manpower to foght.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    Newdawn said:

    Sad for doctors like foxy who are now tarred with the stench of corruption after doctors received payments for giving the vaccine.

    and who is paying you to lie on online forums, you little shit?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Newdawn said:

    Leon said:

    Putin is close to wiping out all mobile and internet coverage here in Odessa. Just been told by “a fixer”

    That’s quite the test for a modern society

    Ukraine is fonished mate. Its all over bar the shouting. Sad
    Learn to spell comrade.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Just watched the debate. My take was Starmer was surprisingly crap and Sunak surprisingly good.

    No wonder Jonathan (Super Lightweight) Ashworth was squirming on TV this morning.

    I doubt it will move the dial much, but there is no harm in the electorate being reminded that Labour always likes to put up taxes, and not just on "the rich" (whoever they are).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    Newdawn said:

    Leon said:

    Putin is close to wiping out all mobile and internet coverage here in Odessa. Just been told by “a fixer”

    That’s quite the test for a modern society

    Ukraine is fonished mate. Its all over bar the shouting. Sad
    Fonished? Is that like having no more Chablis Premier Cru Les Lys 2019 in large format?
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29

    Newdawn said:

    Trust in vaccines is likely to be destroyed avross the west. Ordinary people are talking about this stuff now.

    OH SOD OFF YOU FUCKING FUCK
    Best to ignore and let the moderator deliver the ban hammer

    Just responding only keeps the post active
    Hope ypu aint vaccine injured mate.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Newdawn said:

    Farooq said:

    Newdawn said:

    Nigel Farage today calls for a full inquiry into covid vaccine harms following the telegraph article yesterday.
    Reform to run on the tories poisoned ypu and your kids with a dangerous vaccine

    This from Farage

    "Today the Telegraph reported Covid vaccines may have helped fuel rise in excess deaths.

    At last others are waking up to the need for a full, immediate inquiry into vaccine harms"

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1798289552232341860

    Welcome back, and goodbye
    Farage aint going anywhere. Hes on the case.
    What is the weather like there in Moscow?
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Leon said:

    Cumulative immigration to UK since 2021:
    India: 670k
    Nigeria: 310k
    China: 274k
    Pakistan: 166k
    HK: 131k
    Ukraine: 108k
    Even if u subtract students you're talking abt 301k from India & 103k from Nigeria.
    Whatever your priors on migration, there's no disputing these are BIG numbers.

    https://x.com/edconwaysky/status/1798005491672678768?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Absolute fucking insanity. May the Tories die in their stupid ditch and never recover

    Disgraceful. A hard rigjt party to come to power in the uk in 2029.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,428
    I mean, when was the meeting? When did the Tories sit down and say, right, we won the Brexit vote, which was mainly about controlling migration, how can we get 5 million Nigerians into the country in under 2 years?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    Scott_xP said:

    @UKLabour

    Rishi Sunak lies. This is about his character 👇

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1798308912459911404

    Keep going - keep tax on the agenda
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Newdawn said:

    Newdawn said:

    Trust in vaccines is likely to be destroyed avross the west. Ordinary people are talking about this stuff now.

    OH SOD OFF YOU FUCKING FUCK
    Best to ignore and let the moderator deliver the ban hammer

    Just responding only keeps the post active
    Hope ypu aint vaccine injured mate.
    Where are you from, Newdawn?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390
    Newdawn said:

    Ukraine is Doomed.

    There's Really no Way to Rescue the Situation Here.

    John Mearsheimer:
    But my sense is that deep down at this point in time, most people fully understand that Ukraine is doomed.
    The only interesting question at this point in time
    is how much territory are the Russians going to
    capture before this turns into a frozen conflict?
    But there's really no way to rescue the situation here.
    The Ukrainians are simply doomed.
    They can't fix the manpower problem.
    And with regard to the weaponry problem, we
    don't have the weaponry to give them.
    And we're not going to be able to spin up the industrial base to provide them, even in 2025, with enough weaponry to rescue the situation.
    But, again, even if we give them the
    weaponry, they have a huge manpower problem.
    And the Russians just get stronger and stronger.
    Putin is on a roll.
    The Russians are on a roll.
    So I think that what you're going to see here is what I call an ugly russian victory.


    https://x.com/ivan_8848/status/1797783864607195599

    Thanks for the confirmation that you are today's Russian troll.

    BTW due to lack of Moderators you will probably be able to post more posts than previous trolls (great for your performance review) but I suspect most of us will be ignoring you...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    edited June 5
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Newdawn said:

    Nigel Farage today calls for a full inquiry into covid vaccine harms following the telegraph article yesterday.
    Reform to run on the tories poisoned ypu and your kids with a dangerous vaccine

    This from Farage

    "Today the Telegraph reported Covid vaccines may have helped fuel rise in excess deaths.

    At last others are waking up to the need for a full, immediate inquiry into vaccine harms"

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1798289552232341860

    Welcome back, and goodbye
    In the Culture novel, Excession, there is a scene where one ship tells another "Goodbye", after being told the other is going to do something stupid. When questioned, the first ship says "*I'm* not going anywhere"
    Yes, I read that one in the last year. I think our new friend is about to encounter an outside context problem of his own.
    Got the signed hardcopy.

    @{ @rcs1000 turns into a fleet of 50,000 warships }
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Zelenskyy's greatest fear is Ukrainian women.

    Women is the only power which he cannot control.

    Men can be mobilised, imprisoned, killed.

    He is afraid that a day will come when these women will unite, storming the Office of the President to win back their husbands.

    I receive letters from Ukrainian women daily. Their patience is wearing thin.

    https://x.com/Panchenko_X/status/1798088455768940835
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,688
    edited June 5
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile

    PB CYCLISTS. And LAWYERS.

    A question.

    Aunt last night driving home was waiting at a traffic light junction to turn right across traffic. Opposite direction traffic backed up and static leaving a gap for the right turn. Lights green. Bus is first in the line ahead of the junction and waves her on. She moves across and is hit head on by a cyclist undertaking the bus. Chaos ensues. My aunt says the cyclist was going very fast but his (and her) light was green.

    Who's at fault.

    Picture showing junction and from direction of travel of aunt (my one of the month).

    Your aunt.
    Thanks

    Not sure.
    Thanks (and thanks all). My aunt is v happy to make amends, even if legally she was in the right (which it seems she wasn't by the comments here).

    My question I suppose was what was the mechanism of the legal/insurance process.

    The cyclist has written to her saying she was in the wrong, right of way, etc, and is going to get the bike assessed and expects to be made good. No one has yet mentioned insurance or police.
    I would snap that offer up!

    However, I think you have to report the collision to the police if anyone was injured - I think that must be quite likely? And the insurer will likely require that they are informed too.

    I would invoke @MattW at this point
    Long answer, which I hope is helpful. I think all 3 parties made mistakes.

    The bus driver wove (waved?) a party across a traffic lane (the cycle lane) he could not control, giving her false reassurance (was he mislead by looking in his NS mirror?). Since it is a backed up box junction the bus driver wasn't allowed to enter it anyway - the exit has to be clear to enter, unless they will be waiting to turn right.

    The cyclist riding up the cycle lane has priority over oncoming turning traffic, in the same way as any other vehicle driving along a road does. If he was going as fast as stated, then I'd consider his cycling to be on the scale somewhere between insufficiently cautious and negligent, due to the difficulty he created for himself of seeing round the bus in time to stop.

    My comments on your aunt would be similar - she should imo have paused halfway across to have a look round the bus, and the fact of the collision is that she went across oncoming traffic.

    Plus there is the Duty of Care to vulnerable road users under the Hierarchy of Responsibility.

    If it comes to Civil Court or insurance negotiations I'd expect any assessed amount to be reduced modestly or substantially due to contributory negligence by the cyclist.

    On what should be reported, it is more extensive than I realised but I suspect non-injury accidents are not always reported. May be worth reporting mentioning "non-injury but damage accident" as a way of getting an official record of "non-injury"?
    https://www.police.uk/advice/advice-and-information/rs/road-safety/collisions/

    In the circs either snap up that offer or hand it over to the insurance company to deal with, perhaps in dialogue with the cyclist's insurer, and consider whether there is a need to report to the police. Hope both are well and your mum has protected no claims. Most cyclists have 3rd Party Liability via at least household insurance, though many do not know it - this one may have specialist insurance too. Bike damage could be several k.

    Obvs if she takes up the offer don't admit total fault in writing as that could undermine future positions, and sound fluffy but straight forward ("I am glad to hear that you have no injuries"). But we all know that type of thing here.

    Get your mum to make written contemporaneous notes, dictating to you if necessary.

    I'd say consider getting the CCTV from the cameras on the bus (Service Access Request under Data Protection Act, mentioning time / date / location and describing your mum's car), and/or preserve dashcam footage from your mum, just in case.

    There was a recent cyclist-on-cyclist one in Scotland where civil legal action was not initiated for a considerable time (2 years iirc), so capture and file the data as an insurance policy.
    If the cyclist was going as fast as stated and was involved in a collision with a car, it must be vanishingly unlikely that they came away without an injury. Must be at least a bruise or two, a graze.

    There are also plenty of incidents where people sustain concussions and don't realise until later. A difficult risk-reward decision but I think Topping's aunt should consider a quick note to the police via 101.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,030

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Not having a horse in the race, I didn't bother watching the debate, and overall it seems to have been a wash, with pretty much everyone without a starting bias rating it as a draw.

    On the one hand that seems almost a victory for Sunak: I expected him to be dreadful in this, so not being dreadful is a bit of a win. He probably should be quietly pleased with that bit of it.

    On the other hand, a draw isn't going to do the Cons much good - when even Con supporters are now presenting a potential 1997 scenario as a 'good' result, then you know they're in dire straits, and what the Cons need from their leader is a massive win, both to boost their own confidence and to draw some undecided voters their way. Under the headline 51/49 or 50/50, Sunak (and the Tories) are still rated as worse in every policy area tha Starmer and Labour. And this morning's unravelling of the £2000 tax claim is another advent calendar window for me.

    I feel a slight temptation to watch the 7-way debate now - not for either of these two, but to see how the smaller parties aim their fire - firing squad for Rishi, or carving out their own territories around the edges of the imminent Empire of Labour?

    My expectation for the 7 way is that Reform will attack Con for not being right wing enough, LD will attack Con for being too right wing, while Green, Plaid and SNP will attack Labour for not being left wing enough. Lab and Con will mainly attack each other and ignore the rest.
    With Mordaunt and Rayner in it could be quite interesting. I am out on Friday at a gathering of the WI. They have an annual BBQ that permits men, and there will be both LD and Con local councillors present so may come back with some anecdata.

    The deputies will alter the dynamic. Penny is a good speaker generally, but I was surprised how poor she was in the leadership debates. Rayner has charisma and humour, but can be a loose cannon. Worth watching on catch up.
    The debate on Friday clashes directly with the England football match, which is live on terrestrial TV and after which Southgate has to name his final squad. Which utter clown is responsible for such moronic scheduling?
    Really - mind you it can be recorded
    I'll record it. But to do so really is the domain of ultra political nerds. Most people will watch the football – it's a friendly, but as it might well determine Southgate's final squad, it really matters.
    Not sure most people will watch England in a friendly, different if in competition
    Wanna bet?
    I don't particularly enjoy watching men's football, and find the England men's team irritating. And I'm well above average in my interest in politics. But I'm still more likely to watch a meaningless friendly which I MIGHT be irritated and unentertained by than a debate which I know I will find irritating and unentertaining.
    Basically, who do I want to invite into my house - Gareth Southgate or Rishi Sunak and the rest of the weirdos? Clearly Gareth. Even if he does make some tediously unadventurous tactical choices and even if he is tediously woke.

    Generalising wildly from myself therefore, more people will watch a meaningless football match than a debate among political party leaders.

    All academic in my case as I'll be at Old Trafford watching cricket. But still.
    Point of order

    The Friday debate is between Mordaunt and Rayner plus other leaders - Sunak and Starmer will not be there
    Will be more interesting, I think. Mordaunt versus Rayner would be interesting, somewhat diluted by the others.

    Rayner v Sunak would be a massacre, I think. Possibly also Mordaunt versus Starmer, but to a lesser extent. In both I think the women would come out comfortably on top.
    Are there any other ladies on Friday or are the rest all blokes?
    Assuming it's otherwise all leaders then it depends which one the Greens put up, I think?
    I think that assumption is wrong and that Daisy Cooper is the Lib Dem on this one.
    Ed Davey too busy sitting in a bath of custard out on the campaign trail?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    This latest troll is very inferior. Can't even type simple sentences and the grammar would disgrace Putin himself after the first glass of vodka.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,746
    Re the BMJ Public Health paper...

    I've only skimmed, but there's a notable lack of any obvious link between vaccines and excess deaths (not to mention the issues with excess deaths as a measure, after lockdowns). They have some interesting data, but they oversell it quite badly - I'd have had plenty of objections at peer review. If they'd found anything substantive this would be in bmj or Lancet or somewhere reputable like NEJM. Even having said that, the Telegraph, Farage and other loons are overselling it way beyond even what the authors are saying.

    There's also the outright untruth that governments don't make detailed death data available. The UK does. I've used it - full cause of death and underlying causes are available. The data aren't always great due to different interpretations of recording, but they are there.
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29

    Newdawn said:

    Leon said:

    Putin is close to wiping out all mobile and internet coverage here in Odessa. Just been told by “a fixer”

    That’s quite the test for a modern society

    Ukraine is fonished mate. Its all over bar the shouting. Sad
    Fonished? Is that like having no more Chablis Premier Cru Les Lys 2019 in large format?
    More word salad from you. Maybe drugs have addled your brain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    The Red Arrows just flew by...must be D-Day
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    eek said:

    Newdawn said:

    Ukraine is Doomed.

    There's Really no Way to Rescue the Situation Here.

    John Mearsheimer:
    But my sense is that deep down at this point in time, most people fully understand that Ukraine is doomed.
    The only interesting question at this point in time
    is how much territory are the Russians going to
    capture before this turns into a frozen conflict?
    But there's really no way to rescue the situation here.
    The Ukrainians are simply doomed.
    They can't fix the manpower problem.
    And with regard to the weaponry problem, we
    don't have the weaponry to give them.
    And we're not going to be able to spin up the industrial base to provide them, even in 2025, with enough weaponry to rescue the situation.
    But, again, even if we give them the
    weaponry, they have a huge manpower problem.
    And the Russians just get stronger and stronger.
    Putin is on a roll.
    The Russians are on a roll.
    So I think that what you're going to see here is what I call an ugly russian victory.


    https://x.com/ivan_8848/status/1797783864607195599

    Thanks for the confirmation that you are today's Russian troll.

    BTW due to lack of Moderators you will probably be able to post more posts than previous trolls (great for your performance review) but I suspect most of us will be ignoring you...
    As I said before we should all just ignore the posts and not give any oxygen to them
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Newdawn said:

    Newdawn said:

    Leon said:

    Putin is close to wiping out all mobile and internet coverage here in Odessa. Just been told by “a fixer”

    That’s quite the test for a modern society

    Ukraine is fonished mate. Its all over bar the shouting. Sad
    Fonished? Is that like having no more Chablis Premier Cru Les Lys 2019 in large format?
    More word salad from you. Maybe drugs have addled your brain.
    Classic projection.

    But lettuce not be unkind when it talks about word salad.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390
    Just seen this - not sure how official it is but seems worthy of being the photo I'm allowed today


  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    Selebian said:

    Re the BMJ Public Health paper...

    I've only skimmed, but there's a notable lack of any obvious link between vaccines and excess deaths (not to mention the issues with excess deaths as a measure, after lockdowns). They have some interesting data, but they oversell it quite badly - I'd have had plenty of objections at peer review. If they'd found anything substantive this would be in bmj or Lancet or somewhere reputable like NEJM. Even having said that, the Telegraph, Farage and other loons are overselling it way beyond even what the authors are saying.

    There's also the outright untruth that governments don't make detailed death data available. The UK does. I've used it - full cause of death and underlying causes are available. The data aren't always great due to different interpretations of recording, but they are there.

    It doesnt even matter if the vaccines are dangerous which they are. But even if they werent if people believe they are dangerous its disastrous.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    148grss said:

    eek said:

    Thinking about Rishi's tax comment

    Many people will be thinking £2000 over 4 years isn't as bad as their feared - that was Mrs Eek's reaction..

    I had assumed it was over a year and was still like "well if that means the wait in A&E isn't 8 hours that's still worth it"... Though, tbf, I'm on less than the median income so also assumed I wouldn't be looking at that full £2000.
    Yes I would happily pay an extra £400pa taxes if public services benefit.

    Unfortunately not everybody thinks like that and most of SKS's plans to improve matters dont stand up to even a tiny amount of scrutiny.

    From using private healthcare to improve waiting lists to using GB Energy to reduce energy prices when all it is, is a PFI private sector benefit investment scheme to building new buildings that already existed since 2021.

    The list goes on and on.

    How much any of that will matter is open to debate as the one word CHANGE after 14 yrs is very persuasive for your less picky voter

    I think a 20 to 50 Maj now looks likely as a bare minimum which is a pity because i have a lot to win on NOM
    I think people such as you ought to be able to opt for voluntary taxation. You could decide to put an extra few pence on your income tax and it could be ring fenced for public sector above inflation salary increases and further goldplating of public sector pensions. I wonder what the takeup would be? Maybe it could be incentivised with a national lottery payout each month that would give the lucky winner the equivalent of a pension for Paula Vennels?
  • NewdawnNewdawn Posts: 29
    And the fact thst top poligicians like Farage are now on this is fuel to the fire.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,688
    eek said:

    Just seen this - not sure how official it is but seems worthy of being the photo I'm allowed today


    That's good. Smart keeping May out of it.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    eek said:

    Just seen this - not sure how official it is but seems worthy of being the photo I'm allowed today


    You need to add the Labour we wont put up taxes Party lie perhaps. Nice that Labour supporters are so low that they have resorted to Trumpian campaign tactics. SAD
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,750
    Newdawn said:


    ...
    Putin is on a roll.
    The Russians are on a roll.
    ...

    Surely you could think of a rhyme for "roll"?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390
    Got to say the problem with your typical Russian Troll is that their debate points are boringly predictable:-

    The covid vaccines will kill you
    Ukraine will lose the war
    Russian is great (for reasons that make zero sense to anyone not brainwashed in Russia)...
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    edited June 5

    Scott_xP said:

    @susannareid100

    “Rishi Sunak lied to the British public” - Labour on the £2k tax claim.

    I listened to a conservative adviser this morning who said that the party is delighted with the row as it takes Labour's NHS arguments off the table and highlights Labour and taxation and the longer it is drawn out the more they are content to discuss it

    Looks as if you are playing into their hands on this
    Big G, you'll remember 1992 and Jennifer's Ear. Labour were happy to have the debate on the NHS, it's normally home turf for the red team, just like taxation is good terrain for the blues. That skirmish didn't work out too well for Labour then and I don't think this will work out well for the Conservatives. The Prime Minister lying directly to the public is not a good look.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100

    eek said:

    Just seen this - not sure how official it is but seems worthy of being the photo I'm allowed today


    You need to add the Labour we wont put up taxes Party lie perhaps. Nice that Labour supporters are so low that they have resorted to Trumpian campaign tactics. SAD
    They seem to be in a complete panic over the issue
This discussion has been closed.