Being a convicted felon has consequences – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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The first element is certainly true: German Greens (funded by Russia) opposed a lot of natural gas exploitation in Germany. (And they did the same in Poland, where a ban on fracking led to one of my biggest losses as a fund manager.)FrancisUrquhart said:
The FT seems to contradict themselves on this.rcs1000 said:
No, it's just CH4. And remember, most (i.e. 70%+) of the gas that comes through Russian pipelines ends up in other countries than Germany.FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought there was a specific issue with the form of natural gas Germany uses compared to rest of Europe meaning they have been hit extra hard and also they structured both industrial and domestic to utilise it? And actually making stuff is a lot harder hit than providing services when price of oil / gas ramps up.rcs1000 said:
This is your regular reminder that Germany paid no less for natural gas than anyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.
Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?
The Germans are getting hammered because their two largest export industries - capital goods and cars - are both in the toilet.
Merkel’s policies left Germany too reliant on Russian gas, adviser admits
Opposition to fracking Germany’s domestic reserves of unconventional gas and to building import terminals for liquefied natural gas closed off potential alternatives to Russian hydrocarbons, which were in any case much cheaper than supplies from places like Qatar, he said.
https://www.ft.com/content/aa2afe9f-0b5d-45b7-a647-cc61f6d010cf
The myth of cheap Russian gas in Europe
https://www.ft.com/content/837ec142-cf43-4550-9a7a-66ed104dfc24
Similarly, the lack of LNG import terminals meant that the European gas network was rather more strained than it should be. (And that will have added cost at the margin.)
But energy is ultimately very fungible. If Russian gas no longer flows to Germany, it affects the UK and Pakistan just as much as Germany.1 -
Could be. I think it will be a bit higher for Con, yougovishAndy_Cooke said:
From recollection, Survation's MRP tends to give much lower Lib Dem seats and higher Labour seats. Including some rather strange outcomes in some seats (essentially almost every Lib Dem target seat sees its support collapse towards Labour under their model). But then they could have changed the modelling.wooliedyed said:Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n
It's interesting to see just how hugely the various MRP models vary amongst themselves. Personally, I'm betting on YouGov, but I suppose I would.
I'm going to guess c. 90-100 Con seats, 470-480 Labour seats, 20-25 LD seats, 25-35 SNP seats.0 -
Jesus Christ it’s like a bomb went off0
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Not a good start to the tournament. A very dodgy pitch yesterday resulting in a sub 100 acore and today the rain sheet had a hole in it and let the water through onto the wicket.DM_Andy said:This isn't doing the Barbados tourist board much good, people don't go to the Caribbean to be rained on.
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I think such a Cameroon party would clock maybe 5-8% of the vote because a low-tax, socially liberal, pro-marketisation, high immigration party is quite a niche prospectus for posh high earners who like the rest in London/SE; I remember George Osborne's proposition once being polled and it wasn't high.rcs1000 said:
I think we all tend to assume that the electorate shares our own views more than it actually does!Casino_Royale said:
This wing is quite small, electorally, though and to some extent will plump for the main right-wing party alternative anyway.rcs1000 said:
I agree with the first part of that.Sean_F said:
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.rcs1000 said:
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.Sean_F said:
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.HYUFD said:Yougov voteshares with Farage as Reform Leader earlier this year
Con 21%
Labour 42%
Reform 14%
LD 10%
Farage took from the Tories and Labour who were both down 1% the poll found but the LDs rose 1% ironically if Farage returned
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
If British elections became Reform v Labour I don't think Labour would be in forevermore due to squeamishness about action on immigration.
But, again, don't believe me, go look at the yougov tribes polling data.
Some would go LD, some (perhaps) Labour and some DK/WNV, but a decent chunk would go to the alternative, just as in the US.0 -
Scottish Tories continuing to defy political gravity.CarlottaVance said:Joint-largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014.
🏴 Westminster VI (1-2 June):
Labour 39% (+1)
SNP 29% (-2)
Conservative 17% (+3)
Lib Dem 8% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Green 3% (-1)
Alba 1% (–)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 8-9 May
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/17980218987161973090 -
Working for the flint knappers weekly sounds a bit risky for my liking.Leon said:
Er, I have done war before. Held at gunpoint by Hezbollah as I was also bombed and shelled by IsraelSandpit said:
Congratulations on becoming a war reporter, rather than the jolly flint-knapper hanging around on the periphery of the conflict collecting nice stories.Leon said:
Let’s see if I can cope. The immediate atmosphere is grim and frightening. And the signs of war are ubiquitousSandpit said:
Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.Leon said:Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv
Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
I’ve got two articles to write and I might write them really really really quickly
But it is always fucking scary2 -
Absolute silence from the local party since LRM's suspension. I was getting multiple campaigning emails a day - zilch in recent days. Not even an announcement that Chris Ward is our candidate. I suspect that there's as much anger at the Ward anointment as at the LRM suspension - if LRM is to go, they at least want a local candidate. Opposition parties aren't exactly capitalising on the chaos - we've had no leaflets from any other party. Essentially, the GE campaign in Kemptown is currently comatose.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/1 -
It’s hillarious to be watching this from the Middle East.Casino_Royale said:
It's herd behaviour.rcs1000 said:
Or perhaps they are simply following their fiduciary duties and trying to maximize shareholder value?Sean_F said:
Surprisingly few companies that sport the pride logo display it in their middle Eastern divisions. If one was feeling uncharitable, one might call them hypocrites.FrancisUrquhart said:Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.
Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....
They don't want to be called out for not doing it, and getting bad publicity. But, they also don't particularly want to overdo it more than the rest either and make themselves a "go woke, go broke" target.
The US/EU-based corporate PR departments are absolutely sh!t-scared about being called out for not supporting Pride Month, but the rest of the world just carries on.
After what happened to Bud Light and Target in the US last year, one might have imagined they’d be a little more circumspect this year. I suspect that changing their Twitter logo is seen as doing something, without actually doing something for which they can be attacked from the other side.0 -
There is a wonderful passage in Sherlock Holmes, The Blue Carbuncle, which illustrates tersely the state of the evening paper market in London in the 1890s:stodge said:
I don't need the Spectator to tell me the obvious - unless that's what passes for writing at the Speccie these days.Andy_JS said:"Colin Freeman
What happened to the Evening Standard?
The paper was once an institution"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-happened-to-the-evening-standard/
I wonder if that Sean_T bloke ever wrote any articles for them.
Covid, Working for Home and mobile phone access across the Underground have done the damage. Lebedev's business model was based on funding via advertising and when the circulation was 800,000 or more with multiple editions through the day and if you wanted something to do on the 31(more like 40) minute journey from Monument to East Ham, the Standard fitted the bill and even more so once it saw off the competition in the mid 2000s.
The changes with and since Covid have been hammer blows - the advertising has dried up, the circulation is down to 250,000 - an example, they used to deliver to East Ham which you could argue was pointless as most commuters got a copy in London but the locals would go to the station and get a copy or several. Now, the Standard doesn't come to East Ham so unless you can get one in London (West Ham still has them but that's a significant interchange station) you won't see one.
With Working from Home, there are possibly 10-20% fewer people travelling (especially Mondays and Fridays - perhaps they should have looked at printing on the other three days of the working week only). Finally, we now have 4G and 5G available on lines like the Jubilee so who needs a paper?
I suspect Metro will launch a "new" evening edition later in the year but they will face the same problems in terms of making it work economically.
"Here you are, Peterson, run down to the advertising agency and have this put in the evening papers."
"In which, sir?"
"Oh, in the Globe, Star, Pall Mall, St. James's, Evening News, Standard, Echo, and any others that occur to you."2 -
He will fit in well at the BBCFrancisUrquhart said:BBC cricket pundit Qasim Sheikh posted Hitler moustache photo of Rishi Sunak
He also accused Israel of lying about the al-Ahli hospital rocket attack, in which hundreds of people died on Oct 17.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/04/bbc-cricket-pundit-hitler-moustache-photo-sunak/
This is the same bloke who last year was saying everybody needs to be more tolerant and cricket is terribly racist. Also interesting that Michael Vaughan got chunked under the bus and thrown off the commentary team for over a year (not long enough IMO as he is rubbish).0 -
To be fair, LNG is nearly never pure CH4.rcs1000 said:
No, it's just CH4. And remember, most (i.e. 70%+) of the gas that comes through Russian pipelines ends up in other countries than Germany.FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought there was a specific issue with the form of natural gas Germany uses compared to rest of Europe meaning they have been hit extra hard and also they structured both industrial and domestic to utilise it? And actually making stuff is a lot harder hit than providing services when price of oil / gas ramps up.rcs1000 said:
This is your regular reminder that Germany paid no less for natural gas than anyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.
Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?
The Germans are getting hammered because their two largest export industries - capital goods and cars - are both in the toilet.
Most gas power stations/generators will burn anything in LNG. Mostly without even the operators caring. The energy yield per m3 changes a little bit, though.
Used to have fun modelling liquefaction and regas trains. With a bit of cunning, you can use the process to separate out some valuable stuff.2 -
Well in that case welcome back. Off to Kharkiv next?Leon said:
Er, I have done war before. Held at gunpoint by Hezbollah as I was also bombed and shelled by IsraelSandpit said:
Congratulations on becoming a war reporter, rather than the jolly flint-knapper hanging around on the periphery of the conflict collecting nice stories.Leon said:
Let’s see if I can cope. The immediate atmosphere is grim and frightening. And the signs of war are ubiquitousSandpit said:
Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.Leon said:Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv
Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
I’ve got two articles to write and I might write them really really really quickly
But it is always fucking scary0 -
Fortunately @wooliedyed had the prescience to sound the SCOTTISH POLL KLAXON earlier today.CarlottaVance said:Joint-largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014.
🏴 Westminster VI (1-2 June):
Labour 39% (+1)
SNP 29% (-2)
Conservative 17% (+3)
Lib Dem 8% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Green 3% (-1)
Alba 1% (–)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 8-9 May
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/17980218987161973091 -
What got lost in a lot of the Bud Light stuff wasn't so much the trans influencer...when you head of marketing says on camera to external event that our current customer base are basically a basket of deplorables, you shouldn't surprised people don't want to buy your product.Sandpit said:
It’s hillarious to be watching this from the Middle East.Casino_Royale said:
It's herd behaviour.rcs1000 said:
Or perhaps they are simply following their fiduciary duties and trying to maximize shareholder value?Sean_F said:
Surprisingly few companies that sport the pride logo display it in their middle Eastern divisions. If one was feeling uncharitable, one might call them hypocrites.FrancisUrquhart said:Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.
Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....
They don't want to be called out for not doing it, and getting bad publicity. But, they also don't particularly want to overdo it more than the rest either and make themselves a "go woke, go broke" target.
The US/EU-based corporate PR departments are absolutely sh!t-scared about being called out for not supporting Pride Month, but the rest of the world just carries on.
After what happened to Bud Light and Target in the US last year, one might have imagined they’d be a little more circumspect this year. I suspect that changing their Twitter logo is seen as doing something, without actually doing something for which they can be attacked from the other side.1 -
Only 50% of Scottish voters who voted for the SNP in 2019 now say they would vote for the SNP again on 4 July. 27% would now vote for Labour, 3% would vote for each of the Greens and Alba, and 2% would vote for each of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.
Which is worse than SCons:
Just over half (55%) of those who voted for the Conservatives in Scotland in 2019 would now vote Conservative again.
18% of 2019 Conservative voters in Scotland now say they would vote for Labour, 7% each would vote for Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats, and 3% would vote for the SNP.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-1-2-june-2024/0 -
At this rate, the Conservatives will win a higher vote share in Scotland and Wales than England.CarlottaVance said:Joint-largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014.
🏴 Westminster VI (1-2 June):
Labour 39% (+1)
SNP 29% (-2)
Conservative 17% (+3)
Lib Dem 8% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Green 3% (-1)
Alba 1% (–)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 8-9 May
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/17980218987161973095 -
What do you make of it?Northern_Al said:
Absolute silence from the local party since LRM's suspension. I was getting multiple campaigning emails a day - zilch in recent days. Not even an announcement that Chris Ward is our candidate. I suspect that there's as much anger at the Ward anointment as at the LRM suspension - if LRM is to go, they at least want a local candidate. Opposition parties aren't exactly capitalising on the chaos - we've had no leaflets from any other party. Essentially, the GE campaign in Kemptown is currently comatose.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/
Probably unworkable, but seems to me fairest thing is that if LRM is found innocent, he can contest the selection next time around...0 -
It didn't help that Chris Ward being chosen came out in the middle of Nancy Platts being interviewed for the 'open seat'Northern_Al said:
Absolute silence from the local party since LRM's suspension. I was getting multiple campaigning emails a day - zilch in recent days. Not even an announcement that Chris Ward is our candidate. I suspect that there's as much anger at the Ward anointment as at the LRM suspension - if LRM is to go, they at least want a local candidate. Opposition parties aren't exactly capitalising on the chaos - we've had no leaflets from any other party. Essentially, the GE campaign in Kemptown is currently comatose.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/
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Betting Post*
OK, I mentioned Tewkesbury this morning and said I would report back if I heard anything. Well, I just heard, and am now sure that the 7/1 available on the LDs with Ladbrokes and other bookies is indeed good value.
The Conservative (Laurence Robertson) is 4/5, and Labour 11/8. That looked wrong to me and I have now spoken to the LD candidate and I am assured that he is currently running second. He thinks they are about 7% behind the favorite with Labour nowhere. YouGov MRP gives it 35C/27LD/22Lab which from my knowledge of the constituency feels kind of right, (maybe Lab a bit high but not a million miles out) and gives a decent bit of Labour vote to squeeze.
I've taken the sevens for as much as Lads would allow me. Reform have not put up a candidate yet. Naturally the LDs are hoping they do. If I hear any more, I'll post again.
Fwiw, neighbouring Cheltenham is an LD certainty, but at 1/7 I won't be bothering myself.
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Yes, that was what really did them in, the marketing exec’s interview. They might have just about gotten away with the idiot ‘influencer’, but the suggestion that the company hated their existing customers and wanted to find different ones, was what was fatal.FrancisUrquhart said:
What got lost in a lot of the Bud Light stuff wasn't so much the trans influencer...when you head of marketing says on camera to external event that our current customer base are basically a basket of deplorables, you shouldn't surprised people don't want to buy your product.Sandpit said:
It’s hillarious to be watching this from the Middle East.Casino_Royale said:
It's herd behaviour.rcs1000 said:
Or perhaps they are simply following their fiduciary duties and trying to maximize shareholder value?Sean_F said:
Surprisingly few companies that sport the pride logo display it in their middle Eastern divisions. If one was feeling uncharitable, one might call them hypocrites.FrancisUrquhart said:Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.
Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....
They don't want to be called out for not doing it, and getting bad publicity. But, they also don't particularly want to overdo it more than the rest either and make themselves a "go woke, go broke" target.
The US/EU-based corporate PR departments are absolutely sh!t-scared about being called out for not supporting Pride Month, but the rest of the world just carries on.
After what happened to Bud Light and Target in the US last year, one might have imagined they’d be a little more circumspect this year. I suspect that changing their Twitter logo is seen as doing something, without actually doing something for which they can be attacked from the other side.0 -
Getting in on obscure national anthem trivia. We actually currently sing the second verse incorrectly.as nobody remembered that the lines “to sing with heart and voice, God save the Queen” should become “with heart and voice to sing, God save the King” thus finishing with a rhyme.Sandpit said:
Yes.Selebian said:
Is this a Queen/King thing?Chameleon said:Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.
One of my favourite pub quiz questions from a few years ago, when I used to run pub quizzes. “What was the UK national anthem before it was “God Save The Queen”?”2 -
'More than 200 people' doesn't strike me as a lot given the size of the Labour Party and the keenness of its members for singing petitions.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/1 -
But there's no reason why such a party would be "high immigration", they are just as likely to be "moderate immigration". Look at the way that the conservative party had realized they messed up the income thresholds and have changed them.Casino_Royale said:
I think such a Cameroon party would clock maybe 5-8% of the vote because a low-tax, socially liberal, pro-marketisation, high immigration party is quite a niche prospectus for posh high earners who like the rest in London/SE; I remember George Osborne's proposition once being polled and it wasn't high.rcs1000 said:
I think we all tend to assume that the electorate shares our own views more than it actually does!Casino_Royale said:
This wing is quite small, electorally, though and to some extent will plump for the main right-wing party alternative anyway.rcs1000 said:
I agree with the first part of that.Sean_F said:
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.rcs1000 said:
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.Sean_F said:
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.HYUFD said:Yougov voteshares with Farage as Reform Leader earlier this year
Con 21%
Labour 42%
Reform 14%
LD 10%
Farage took from the Tories and Labour who were both down 1% the poll found but the LDs rose 1% ironically if Farage returned
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
If British elections became Reform v Labour I don't think Labour would be in forevermore due to squeamishness about action on immigration.
But, again, don't believe me, go look at the yougov tribes polling data.
Some would go LD, some (perhaps) Labour and some DK/WNV, but a decent chunk would go to the alternative, just as in the US.0 -
I think it just means it's a simple Tory hold, I just can't see Labour magicking up support there, they wouldn't have been close when they swept all under Brown. They'd need to be much higher nationally. They might beat the 15%, and that would be in itself eye openingFarooq said:
You see now why I say Labour might be in play for my seat? Fourth to first with no previous ground game is a huge cliff face to climb, but if it was ever going to happen, THIS is what it would look like. It's definitely possible.wooliedyed said:
It's pretty bleak for them, yeah.Chameleon said:
On straight swing that's awful for the SNP:wooliedyed said:Redfield Ecosse
Labour 39% (+1)
Scottish National Party 29% (-2)
Conservative 17% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 8% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Green 3% (-1)
Alba Party 1% (–)
Other 1% (+1)
Lab: 35
SNP: 9
Con: 8
LD: 50 -
Yes, that's an idea. The problem is that we have absolutely no idea of what the allegations against him are, or why they've come out at precisely this time but eight years, apparently, after the event. It all smells a bit fishy.rkrkrk said:
What do you make of it?Northern_Al said:
Absolute silence from the local party since LRM's suspension. I was getting multiple campaigning emails a day - zilch in recent days. Not even an announcement that Chris Ward is our candidate. I suspect that there's as much anger at the Ward anointment as at the LRM suspension - if LRM is to go, they at least want a local candidate. Opposition parties aren't exactly capitalising on the chaos - we've had no leaflets from any other party. Essentially, the GE campaign in Kemptown is currently comatose.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/
Probably unworkable, but seems to me fairest thing is that if LRM is found innocent, he can contest the selection next time around...
Though interestingly, LRM himself doesn't seem to be fighting it in the same way that Faiza Shaheen did, at least not publicly.0 -
Defending champion Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from the French Open before his quarter-final with a knee injury. The scan revealed Djokovic has torn medial meniscus in his right knee.
That could be no Wimbledon, no Olympics.0 -
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1798025670401966205?s=19
2019 Con for Nigel0 -
I'm going for:Andy_Cooke said:
From recollection, Survation's MRP tends to give much lower Lib Dem seats and higher Labour seats. Including some rather strange outcomes in some seats (essentially almost every Lib Dem target seat sees its support collapse towards Labour under their model). But then they could have changed the modelling.wooliedyed said:Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n
It's interesting to see just how hugely the various MRP models vary amongst themselves. Personally, I'm betting on YouGov, but I suppose I would.
I'm going to guess c. 90-100 Con seats, 470-480 Labour seats, 20-25 LD seats, 25-35 SNP seats.
18 NI
3 PC
4 Others
10 SNP
50 LD
495 Lab
70 Con0 -
"There is no money left!"Casino_Royale said:
How does he win, exactly?Scott_xP said:IHT is a winner. Nobody cares how rich Richi is...
@mikeysmith
STORY
Rishi Sunak rolls into Manchester carrying £1,460 worth of luxury luggage.
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1798010556416451040
We all know he's got money. If he turned up with a bag from JDSports or MountainWarehouse he'd be accused of posturing.
Actually, Rishi has plenty!0 -
Now that would be dangerous.Sandpit said:
Well in that case welcome back. Off to Kharkiv next?Leon said:
Er, I have done war before. Held at gunpoint by Hezbollah as I was also bombed and shelled by IsraelSandpit said:
Congratulations on becoming a war reporter, rather than the jolly flint-knapper hanging around on the periphery of the conflict collecting nice stories.Leon said:
Let’s see if I can cope. The immediate atmosphere is grim and frightening. And the signs of war are ubiquitousSandpit said:
Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.Leon said:Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv
Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
I’ve got two articles to write and I might write them really really really quickly
But it is always fucking scary
Odesa ought to be fine as long as you heed air raid warnings; no such possibility in Kharkiv - where your local B&Q equivalent (or anywhere else) can be hit anytime by a couple of glide bombs without warning.1 -
Most turbines will burn anything relatively flammable, with little modification depending on what today’s fuel happens to be. The skill is in the fuel selection for yield optimisation. There’s been plenty of plane flights running some weird fuel on one engine of four, and the difficult bit is actually setting up the experiment in the first place, with a small tank that can be isolated, and having the whole rig certified.Malmesbury said:
To be fair, LNG is nearly never pure CH4.rcs1000 said:
No, it's just CH4. And remember, most (i.e. 70%+) of the gas that comes through Russian pipelines ends up in other countries than Germany.FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought there was a specific issue with the form of natural gas Germany uses compared to rest of Europe meaning they have been hit extra hard and also they structured both industrial and domestic to utilise it? And actually making stuff is a lot harder hit than providing services when price of oil / gas ramps up.rcs1000 said:
This is your regular reminder that Germany paid no less for natural gas than anyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.
Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?
The Germans are getting hammered because their two largest export industries - capital goods and cars - are both in the toilet.
Most gas power stations/generators will burn anything in LNG. Mostly without even the operators caring. The energy yield per m3 changes a little bit, though.
Used to have fun modelling liquefaction and regas trains. With a bit of cunning, you can use the process to separate out some valuable stuff.0 -
Samsonite? M&S? John Lewis own-brand?Casino_Royale said:
How does he win, exactly?Scott_xP said:IHT is a winner. Nobody cares how rich Richi is...
@mikeysmith
STORY
Rishi Sunak rolls into Manchester carrying £1,460 worth of luxury luggage.
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1798010556416451040
We all know he's got money. If he turned up with a bag from JDSports or MountainWarehouse he'd be accused of posturing.
I agree that it's trivia, but I would have thought that it would be core Conservative voters who are most likely to be turned off by ostentatious displays like this. It's not what he needs when facing an increased challenge from Refuk.0 -
No one of my acquaintance knows the second verse in its entirety anyway.ToryJim said:
Getting in on obscure national anthem trivia. We actually currently sing the second verse incorrectly.as nobody remembered that the lines “to sing with heart and voice, God save the Queen” should become “with heart and voice to sing, God save the King” thus finishing with a rhyme.Sandpit said:
Yes.Selebian said:
Is this a Queen/King thing?Chameleon said:Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.
One of my favourite pub quiz questions from a few years ago, when I used to run pub quizzes. “What was the UK national anthem before it was “God Save The Queen”?”1 -
I doubt it very much. This is really on the edge of tolerable as it is; but then I’ve only just arrivedSandpit said:
Well in that case welcome back. Off to Kharkiv next?Leon said:
Er, I have done war before. Held at gunpoint by Hezbollah as I was also bombed and shelled by IsraelSandpit said:
Congratulations on becoming a war reporter, rather than the jolly flint-knapper hanging around on the periphery of the conflict collecting nice stories.Leon said:
Let’s see if I can cope. The immediate atmosphere is grim and frightening. And the signs of war are ubiquitousSandpit said:
Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.Leon said:Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv
Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
I’ve got two articles to write and I might write them really really really quickly
But it is always fucking scary
I hate to be negative but this feels like a country losing a terrible war. Maybe it’s just first night nerves0 -
The Labour figures on that are very low - few want Nige to be an MP. I was worried that Labour might lose quite a few to Reform now, as you argued, but those figures don't suggest much impact.wooliedyed said:https://x.com/YouGov/status/1798025670401966205?s=19
2019 Con for Nigel0 -
Aide : The Tories are in meltdown and polling their worst ever in the rest of the U.K.Anabobazina said:
Fortunately @wooliedyed had the prescience to sound the SCOTTISH POLL KLAXON earlier today.CarlottaVance said:Joint-largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014.
🏴 Westminster VI (1-2 June):
Labour 39% (+1)
SNP 29% (-2)
Conservative 17% (+3)
Lib Dem 8% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Green 3% (-1)
Alba 1% (–)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 8-9 May
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1798021898716197309
Swinney: Hold my beer3 -
Germany's 'specific issue' with Russian gas was that they shut down their nukes. And didn't have the infrastructure for importing LNG in sufficient quantity at the beginning of the invasion.Malmesbury said:
To be fair, LNG is nearly never pure CH4.rcs1000 said:
No, it's just CH4. And remember, most (i.e. 70%+) of the gas that comes through Russian pipelines ends up in other countries than Germany.FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought there was a specific issue with the form of natural gas Germany uses compared to rest of Europe meaning they have been hit extra hard and also they structured both industrial and domestic to utilise it? And actually making stuff is a lot harder hit than providing services when price of oil / gas ramps up.rcs1000 said:
This is your regular reminder that Germany paid no less for natural gas than anyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.
Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?
The Germans are getting hammered because their two largest export industries - capital goods and cars - are both in the toilet.
Most gas power stations/generators will burn anything in LNG. Mostly without even the operators caring. The energy yield per m3 changes a little bit, though.
Used to have fun modelling liquefaction and regas trains. With a bit of cunning, you can use the process to separate out some valuable stuff.1 -
I wonder how James Kelly will spin this.CarlottaVance said:Only 50% of Scottish voters who voted for the SNP in 2019 now say they would vote for the SNP again on 4 July. 27% would now vote for Labour, 3% would vote for each of the Greens and Alba, and 2% would vote for each of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.
Which is worse than SCons:
Just over half (55%) of those who voted for the Conservatives in Scotland in 2019 would now vote Conservative again.
18% of 2019 Conservative voters in Scotland now say they would vote for Labour, 7% each would vote for Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats, and 3% would vote for the SNP.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-1-2-june-2024/0 -
I went to see what the Bet365 odds - which are 5-1, will head to Ladbrokes I think (now 9/2 so Bet365 it is)Peter_the_Punter said:Betting Post*
OK, I mentioned Tewkesbury this morning and said I would report back if I heard anything. Well, I just heard, and am now sure that the 7/1 available on the LDs with Ladbrokes and other bookies is indeed good value.
The Conservative (Laurence Robertson) is 4/5, and Labour 11/8. That looked wrong to me and I have now spoken to the LD candidate and I am assured that he is currently running second. He thinks they are about 7% behind the favorite with Labour nowhere. YouGov MRP gives it 35C/27LD/22Lab which from my knowledge of the constituency feels kind of right, (maybe Lab a bit high but not a million miles out) and gives a decent bit of Labour vote to squeeze.
I've taken the sevens for as much as Lads would allow me. Reform have not put up a candidate yet. Naturally the LDs are hoping they do. If I hear any more, I'll post again.
Fwiw, neighbouring Cheltenham is an LD certainty, but at 1/7 I won't be bothering myself.
Heading there meant that I checked my current bets and I can now check out with profit my 25-1 bets that the Tories get less than 50 seats. Current odds are now 11/2...3 -
'2019 Lab'. If they lose any, it will more likely be from the 10% or so Boris coalition that have jumped over and are 'any change will do'Northern_Al said:
The Labour figures on that are very low - few want Nige to be an MP. I was worried that Labour might lose quite a few to Reform now, as you argued, but those figures don't suggest much impact.wooliedyed said:https://x.com/YouGov/status/1798025670401966205?s=19
2019 Con for Nigel0 -
YouGov methodology change klaxon:
https://x.com/PME_Politics/status/1798010741838266836
Though I fear they may end up over-sampling Reform voters:
"In terms of sampling, we are doing the same as always - collecting vote intention data from a politically and sociopathic-demographically representative sample of 2000 British adults".0 -
Exactly what USA did to UK for much of the 19th century.MightyAlex said:
Thought the Chinese no longer needing German industry/technology is part of it. Imagine investing billions in a state, gifting it your hard won IP and watching it sell it to the world.FrancisUrquhart said:German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.
Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?
While UK was "appropriating" antiquities from around the world . . . and rubber trees from South America . . . and . . .0 -
It rather depends on who and where the 200 are.Cookie said:
'More than 200 people' doesn't strike me as a lot given the size of the Labour Party and the keenness of its members for singing petitions.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/
If it's random lefties from London, it's irrelevant.
If it's the Kemptown branch of Labour, they have a problem.0 -
A reminder that Torsten Bell is a Labour candidate this time around.
UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
Labour and the Conservatives want to reduce national debt, but Resolution Foundation says promises ‘detached from reality’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/04/uk-faces-33bn-hole-in-finances-or-return-to-austerity-thinktank-says1 -
It’s certainly a country involved in a terrible war, and one not of its making.Leon said:
I doubt it very much. This is really on the edge of tolerable as it is; but then I’ve only just arrivedSandpit said:
Well in that case welcome back. Off to Kharkiv next?Leon said:
Er, I have done war before. Held at gunpoint by Hezbollah as I was also bombed and shelled by IsraelSandpit said:
Congratulations on becoming a war reporter, rather than the jolly flint-knapper hanging around on the periphery of the conflict collecting nice stories.Leon said:
Let’s see if I can cope. The immediate atmosphere is grim and frightening. And the signs of war are ubiquitousSandpit said:
Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.Leon said:Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv
Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
I’ve got two articles to write and I might write them really really really quickly
But it is always fucking scary
I hate to be negative but this feels like a country losing a terrible war. Maybe it’s just first night nerves
Odessa has been in the firing line for more than two years now, front and centre of the enemy’s determination to prevent Ukrainian exports of grain and oil.0 -
Down to 5.5 (9/4) on Ladbrokes now - 5.75 with Boost if you still have that available. Shame as I was going to join you but that's a significant enough shortening of the odds to make me hesitatePeter_the_Punter said:Betting Post*
OK, I mentioned Tewkesbury this morning and said I would report back if I heard anything. Well, I just heard, and am now sure that the 7/1 available on the LDs with Ladbrokes and other bookies is indeed good value.
The Conservative (Laurence Robertson) is 4/5, and Labour 11/8. That looked wrong to me and I have now spoken to the LD candidate and I am assured that he is currently running second. He thinks they are about 7% behind the favorite with Labour nowhere. YouGov MRP gives it 35C/27LD/22Lab which from my knowledge of the constituency feels kind of right, (maybe Lab a bit high but not a million miles out) and gives a decent bit of Labour vote to squeeze.
I've taken the sevens for as much as Lads would allow me. Reform have not put up a candidate yet. Naturally the LDs are hoping they do. If I hear any more, I'll post again.
Fwiw, neighbouring Cheltenham is an LD certainty, but at 1/7 I won't be bothering myself.
0 -
Labour won't do austerity. So what taxes rise?Nigelb said:A reminder that Torsten Bell is a Labour candidate this time around.
UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
Labour and the Conservatives want to reduce national debt, but Resolution Foundation says promises ‘detached from reality’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/04/uk-faces-33bn-hole-in-finances-or-return-to-austerity-thinktank-says1 -
He doesn't. He should act authentically rich like DJT but doesn't have the guts to brazen it out.Casino_Royale said:
How does he win, exactly?Scott_xP said:IHT is a winner. Nobody cares how rich Richi is...
@mikeysmith
STORY
Rishi Sunak rolls into Manchester carrying £1,460 worth of luxury luggage.
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1798010556416451040
We all know he's got money. If he turned up with a bag from JDSports or MountainWarehouse he'd be accused of posturing.
He can't do normal and shouldn't try.2 -
I’m deeply nerdy enough to know the third verse.Nigelb said:
No one of my acquaintance knows the second verse in its entirety anyway.ToryJim said:
Getting in on obscure national anthem trivia. We actually currently sing the second verse incorrectly.as nobody remembered that the lines “to sing with heart and voice, God save the Queen” should become “with heart and voice to sing, God save the King” thus finishing with a rhyme.Sandpit said:
Yes.Selebian said:
Is this a Queen/King thing?Chameleon said:Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.
One of my favourite pub quiz questions from a few years ago, when I used to run pub quizzes. “What was the UK national anthem before it was “God Save The Queen”?”1 -
Maybe only 200 have confidence in their voice to sing a petition?Cookie said:
'More than 200 people' doesn't strike me as a lot given the size of the Labour Party and the keenness of its members for singing petitions.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/0 -
It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293
1 -
Pension pots.FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour won't do austerity. So what taxes rise?Nigelb said:A reminder that Torsten Bell is a Labour candidate this time around.
UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
Labour and the Conservatives want to reduce national debt, but Resolution Foundation says promises ‘detached from reality’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/04/uk-faces-33bn-hole-in-finances-or-return-to-austerity-thinktank-says
Until the public sector unions SQUEAL!!!1 -
Believe me, your average Labour Party member doesn’t need much encouragement to sign a petitionMarqueeMark said:
Maybe only 200 have confidence in their voice to sing a petition?Cookie said:
'More than 200 people' doesn't strike me as a lot given the size of the Labour Party and the keenness of its members for singing petitions.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/0 -
[check the typo!]DougSeal said:
Believe me, your average Labour Party member doesn’t need much encouragement to sign a petitionMarqueeMark said:
Maybe only 200 have confidence in their voice to sing a petition?Cookie said:
'More than 200 people' doesn't strike me as a lot given the size of the Labour Party and the keenness of its members for singing petitions.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/1 -
New Redfield & Wilton poll has a joint record lead for Scottish Labour.....
[RESULTS - upthread]
Electoral Calculus suggests that's just *7* seats for the SNP - and a landslide for Scottish Labour
https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/17980245672750654590 -
He got beer thrown over him by somebody else. That is milkshake attack. If it was staged, that would be Farage campaign sunk on day one. Nobody is going to buy his BS if Reform are exposed setting up a fake attack on him.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293
The attacker has been arrested, so it will all come out shortly one way or another.0 -
Surprise, surprise. Not.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293
It's all about the cu*t of personaility with Nigel Farage.0 -
Wow. That's extraordinary if true. Presumably Nigel thinks he has a lot to gain by wallowing in victimhood.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/17980232906254172930 -
Yup! It was bonkers for Merkel to have her whole economic strategy reliant on Russia, in what was a knee-jerk reaction to an accident that couldn’t have possibly occurred in Germany. She should have had alternative routes of energy available before shutting down the nukes, such as a pipeline or import terminal that could serve the politically-neutral Gulf region.Nigelb said:
Germany's 'specific issue' with Russian gas was that they shut down their nukes. And didn't have the infrastructure for importing LNG in sufficient quantity at the beginning of the invasion.Malmesbury said:
To be fair, LNG is nearly never pure CH4.rcs1000 said:
No, it's just CH4. And remember, most (i.e. 70%+) of the gas that comes through Russian pipelines ends up in other countries than Germany.FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought there was a specific issue with the form of natural gas Germany uses compared to rest of Europe meaning they have been hit extra hard and also they structured both industrial and domestic to utilise it? And actually making stuff is a lot harder hit than providing services when price of oil / gas ramps up.rcs1000 said:
This is your regular reminder that Germany paid no less for natural gas than anyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.
Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?
The Germans are getting hammered because their two largest export industries - capital goods and cars - are both in the toilet.
Most gas power stations/generators will burn anything in LNG. Mostly without even the operators caring. The energy yield per m3 changes a little bit, though.
Used to have fun modelling liquefaction and regas trains. With a bit of cunning, you can use the process to separate out some valuable stuff.0 -
I've no idea - but it speaks well of the Resolution Foundation that they release this report trashing both Labour and Conservative election promises, when their CEO is a candidate.FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour won't do austerity. So what taxes rise?Nigelb said:A reminder that Torsten Bell is a Labour candidate this time around.
UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
Labour and the Conservatives want to reduce national debt, but Resolution Foundation says promises ‘detached from reality’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/04/uk-faces-33bn-hole-in-finances-or-return-to-austerity-thinktank-says0 -
Actually can still get 7/1 on Sky (and Hills but I'm banned from there) - Sky have let me have £28.57Dumbosaurus said:
Down to 5.5 (9/4) on Ladbrokes now - 5.75 with Boost if you still have that available. Shame as I was going to join you but that's a significant enough shortening of the odds to make me hesitatePeter_the_Punter said:Betting Post*
OK, I mentioned Tewkesbury this morning and said I would report back if I heard anything. Well, I just heard, and am now sure that the 7/1 available on the LDs with Ladbrokes and other bookies is indeed good value.
The Conservative (Laurence Robertson) is 4/5, and Labour 11/8. That looked wrong to me and I have now spoken to the LD candidate and I am assured that he is currently running second. He thinks they are about 7% behind the favorite with Labour nowhere. YouGov MRP gives it 35C/27LD/22Lab which from my knowledge of the constituency feels kind of right, (maybe Lab a bit high but not a million miles out) and gives a decent bit of Labour vote to squeeze.
I've taken the sevens for as much as Lads would allow me. Reform have not put up a candidate yet. Naturally the LDs are hoping they do. If I hear any more, I'll post again.
Fwiw, neighbouring Cheltenham is an LD certainty, but at 1/7 I won't be bothering myself. 0 -
This will be interesting. Torsten Bell is one to watch. The Resolution Foundation is on my (shortish) list of wonk outfits to take seriously. (Others include RUSI, IFS, IfG, Chatham House).Nigelb said:A reminder that Torsten Bell is a Labour candidate this time around.
UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
Labour and the Conservatives want to reduce national debt, but Resolution Foundation says promises ‘detached from reality’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/04/uk-faces-33bn-hole-in-finances-or-return-to-austerity-thinktank-says
On the whole this is not consistent with party political engagement as such, as this deals essentially with distortion, exaggeration, polemic and so on. The late and much missed Frank Field is, in a sense, an example. His brief turn as a minister ceased once it was clear that he meant what he said.
Bell is obviously a lucky general. His inevitable book is due to be published on 13 June and has endorsements from all the right sort.2 -
MILKSHAKEGATE0
-
I suspect he may struggle to get this glass "half full", like he did with YG:RandallFlagg said:
I wonder how James Kelly will spin this.CarlottaVance said:Only 50% of Scottish voters who voted for the SNP in 2019 now say they would vote for the SNP again on 4 July. 27% would now vote for Labour, 3% would vote for each of the Greens and Alba, and 2% would vote for each of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.
Which is worse than SCons:
Just over half (55%) of those who voted for the Conservatives in Scotland in 2019 would now vote Conservative again.
18% of 2019 Conservative voters in Scotland now say they would vote for Labour, 7% each would vote for Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats, and 3% would vote for the SNP.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-1-2-june-2024/
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-yougov-mrp-poll-is-lot-better-than.html0 -
If so, that would not be good for Reform at all. Emily Hewertson denies it was her thougheek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/17980232906254172930 -
Have to say it's not 100% clear it's the same girl. Although I can see a strong resemblance, at that angle. We shall see.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/17980232906254172930 -
You mean the Tories started office with a note saying "There's no money left" and they leave office with the situation unchanged?Nigelb said:A reminder that Torsten Bell is a Labour candidate this time around.
UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
Labour and the Conservatives want to reduce national debt, but Resolution Foundation says promises ‘detached from reality’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/04/uk-faces-33bn-hole-in-finances-or-return-to-austerity-thinktank-says0 -
She's denied it. https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. That's extraordinary if true. Presumably Nigel thinks he has a lot to gain by wallowing in victimhood.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/17980232906254172930 -
You don't have to be a super-recogniser to see that they're not the same person.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/17980232906254172930 -
.
On the other hand, Nigel isn't dumb. And staging something like this is the sort of stunt that has a decent chance of being exposed and coming out.Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. That's extraordinary if true. Presumably Nigel thinks he has a lot to gain by wallowing in victimhood.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293
(If it's not mistaken identity, my guess is that Nigel's fan club set this up without informing the great man himself.)0 -
Tewkesbury 34.69 33.27 17.58Cookie said:
I'm going for:Andy_Cooke said:
From recollection, Survation's MRP tends to give much lower Lib Dem seats and higher Labour seats. Including some rather strange outcomes in some seats (essentially almost every Lib Dem target seat sees its support collapse towards Labour under their model). But then they could have changed the modelling.wooliedyed said:Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n
It's interesting to see just how hugely the various MRP models vary amongst themselves. Personally, I'm betting on YouGov, but I suppose I would.
I'm going to guess c. 90-100 Con seats, 470-480 Labour seats, 20-25 LD seats, 25-35 SNP seats.
18 NI
3 PC
4 Others
10 SNP
50 LD
Torbay 31.88 34.39 18.26
St Albans 22.74 31.16 31.56
North Norfolk 34.09 32.91 17.69
Newton Abbot 32.32 32.67 17.97
Kingston and Surbiton 20.85 30.45 36.86
Hazel Grove 22.62 29.96 26.89
Guildford 26.68 27.93 29.32
Epsom and Ewell 33.42 33.17 20.71
Eastleigh 34.50 30.40 23.93
Carshalton and Wallington 23.12 30.63 31.90
Bath 19.66 32.72 36.54
Lib Dem vote shares get smashed everywhere by their model.
SNP on the other hand do really well almost everywhere (gotta go for dinner; can't give examples)0 -
I thought they looked similar but she's very clearly denied it.Andy_JS said:
You don't have to be a super-recogniser to see that they're not the same person.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293
Also, such a stunt would obviously be found out - even Farage is not stupid enough to attempt it.0 -
Given the attacker has been arrested, I think we can put the nonsense to bed, as they wouldn't be sitting on social media tweeting about it over the past few hours if they were in the nick.Benpointer said:
She's denied it. https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. That's extraordinary if true. Presumably Nigel thinks he has a lot to gain by wallowing in victimhood.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/17980232906254172930 -
Still 7/1 with Hills and Sky. I'd still take 9/2and hope that Reform stand.Dumbosaurus said:
Down to 5.5 (9/4) on Ladbrokes now - 5.75 with Boost if you still have that available. Shame as I was going to join you but that's a significant enough shortening of the odds to make me hesitatePeter_the_Punter said:Betting Post*
OK, I mentioned Tewkesbury this morning and said I would report back if I heard anything. Well, I just heard, and am now sure that the 7/1 available on the LDs with Ladbrokes and other bookies is indeed good value.
The Conservative (Laurence Robertson) is 4/5, and Labour 11/8. That looked wrong to me and I have now spoken to the LD candidate and I am assured that he is currently running second. He thinks they are about 7% behind the favorite with Labour nowhere. YouGov MRP gives it 35C/27LD/22Lab which from my knowledge of the constituency feels kind of right, (maybe Lab a bit high but not a million miles out) and gives a decent bit of Labour vote to squeeze.
I've taken the sevens for as much as Lads would allow me. Reform have not put up a candidate yet. Naturally the LDs are hoping they do. If I hear any more, I'll post again.
Fwiw, neighbouring Cheltenham is an LD certainty, but at 1/7 I won't be bothering myself.1 -
Lol. It’s not the same person. Clearly.MarqueeMark said:
Surprise, surprise. Not.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293
It's all about the cu*t of personaility with Nigel Farage.0 -
I doubt the arrested attacker is in a nick - they're all full don't you know.FrancisUrquhart said:
Given the attacker has been arrested, I think we can put the nonsense to bed, as they wouldn't be sitting on social media tweeting about it if they were in the nick.Benpointer said:
She's denied it. https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. That's extraordinary if true. Presumably Nigel thinks he has a lot to gain by wallowing in victimhood.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/17980232906254172931 -
There speaks a PBer who does not commute through Canary Wharf DLR with its platform-side Tesco and other, posher, shops.Anabobazina said:
The shopping one would be a neat trick – I believe there are still some shops "Tube-side", if chewing gum and bottles of low-grade orange juice are your idea of retail therapy.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Four ways spring to mind: getting stuck in a tunnel; getting the tap in/out sequence wrong when changing lines so the system loses track of you; popping off for a spot of shopping while changing lines.Anabobazina said:
It would take a special punter indeed to spend 95 minutes on the Tube in Zone 1. It is a whole new world of Travelling Salesman Problem to calculate how such a feat could be achieved.rcs1000 said:
I can't stand slow people on public transport. If fines are are needed to make them speed up, or at least get out of my way, then fines there must be.Andy_JS said:"How London Underground fines you if you travel too slowly across the city"
https://metro.co.uk/2024/02/24/london-underground-fines-travel-slowly-across-city-20340117/
This is what can be avoided with a paper ticket, and why they wanted to abolish them recently, although changed their minds at the last minute after lots of people complained.
(no deliberate loitering allowed)
And most common will be simply using different cards to tap in and out.2 -
Paging Leon...
Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/opinion/covid-lab-leak.html1 -
That's a trifle hard to follow, which numbers are which party?Andy_Cooke said:
Tewkesbury 34.69 33.27 17.58Cookie said:
I'm going for:Andy_Cooke said:
From recollection, Survation's MRP tends to give much lower Lib Dem seats and higher Labour seats. Including some rather strange outcomes in some seats (essentially almost every Lib Dem target seat sees its support collapse towards Labour under their model). But then they could have changed the modelling.wooliedyed said:Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n
It's interesting to see just how hugely the various MRP models vary amongst themselves. Personally, I'm betting on YouGov, but I suppose I would.
I'm going to guess c. 90-100 Con seats, 470-480 Labour seats, 20-25 LD seats, 25-35 SNP seats.
18 NI
3 PC
4 Others
10 SNP
50 LD
Torbay 31.88 34.39 18.26
St Albans 22.74 31.16 31.56
North Norfolk 34.09 32.91 17.69
Newton Abbot 32.32 32.67 17.97
Kingston and Surbiton 20.85 30.45 36.86
Hazel Grove 22.62 29.96 26.89
Guildford 26.68 27.93 29.32
Epsom and Ewell 33.42 33.17 20.71
Eastleigh 34.50 30.40 23.93
Carshalton and Wallington 23.12 30.63 31.90
Bath 19.66 32.72 36.54
Lib Dem vote shares get smashed everywhere by their model.
SNP on the other hand do really well almost everywhere (gotta go for dinner; can't give examples)0 -
Have you been to Ukraine during the war?Nigelb said:
Now that would be dangerous.Sandpit said:
Well in that case welcome back. Off to Kharkiv next?Leon said:
Er, I have done war before. Held at gunpoint by Hezbollah as I was also bombed and shelled by IsraelSandpit said:
Congratulations on becoming a war reporter, rather than the jolly flint-knapper hanging around on the periphery of the conflict collecting nice stories.Leon said:
Let’s see if I can cope. The immediate atmosphere is grim and frightening. And the signs of war are ubiquitousSandpit said:
Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.Leon said:Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv
Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
I’ve got two articles to write and I might write them really really really quickly
But it is always fucking scary
Odesa ought to be fine as long as you heed air raid warnings; no such possibility in Kharkiv - where your local B&Q equivalent (or anywhere else) can be hit anytime by a couple of glide bombs without warning.
Your advice is kindly meant I am sure - and Thankyou. But unless you’ve been…1 -
Those St Albans numbers are clearly nonsense.Andy_Cooke said:
Tewkesbury 34.69 33.27 17.58Cookie said:
I'm going for:Andy_Cooke said:
From recollection, Survation's MRP tends to give much lower Lib Dem seats and higher Labour seats. Including some rather strange outcomes in some seats (essentially almost every Lib Dem target seat sees its support collapse towards Labour under their model). But then they could have changed the modelling.wooliedyed said:Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n
It's interesting to see just how hugely the various MRP models vary amongst themselves. Personally, I'm betting on YouGov, but I suppose I would.
I'm going to guess c. 90-100 Con seats, 470-480 Labour seats, 20-25 LD seats, 25-35 SNP seats.
18 NI
3 PC
4 Others
10 SNP
50 LD
Torbay 31.88 34.39 18.26
St Albans 22.74 31.16 31.56
North Norfolk 34.09 32.91 17.69
Newton Abbot 32.32 32.67 17.97
Kingston and Surbiton 20.85 30.45 36.86
Hazel Grove 22.62 29.96 26.89
Guildford 26.68 27.93 29.32
Epsom and Ewell 33.42 33.17 20.71
Eastleigh 34.50 30.40 23.93
Carshalton and Wallington 23.12 30.63 31.90
Bath 19.66 32.72 36.54
Lib Dem vote shares get smashed everywhere by their model.
SNP on the other hand do really well almost everywhere (gotta go for dinner; can't give examples)0 -
There is something interesting about this -perhaps Cyclefree can help us here - in that this story starts to tell a tale in which a public assertion by the most senior policeman in England really means that the problem of sexually related crime is to do with the nature of reality and isn't governable.
I'm not sure this story will end here.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/04/met-chief-says-millions-of-men-are-danger-to-women-and-girls-in-england-and-wales0 -
True, true, I do not.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There speaks a PBer who does not commute through Canary Wharf DLR with its platform-side Tesco and other, posher, shops.Anabobazina said:
The shopping one would be a neat trick – I believe there are still some shops "Tube-side", if chewing gum and bottles of low-grade orange juice are your idea of retail therapy.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Four ways spring to mind: getting stuck in a tunnel; getting the tap in/out sequence wrong when changing lines so the system loses track of you; popping off for a spot of shopping while changing lines.Anabobazina said:
It would take a special punter indeed to spend 95 minutes on the Tube in Zone 1. It is a whole new world of Travelling Salesman Problem to calculate how such a feat could be achieved.rcs1000 said:
I can't stand slow people on public transport. If fines are are needed to make them speed up, or at least get out of my way, then fines there must be.Andy_JS said:"How London Underground fines you if you travel too slowly across the city"
https://metro.co.uk/2024/02/24/london-underground-fines-travel-slowly-across-city-20340117/
This is what can be avoided with a paper ticket, and why they wanted to abolish them recently, although changed their minds at the last minute after lots of people complained.
(no deliberate loitering allowed)
And most common will be simply using different cards to tap in and out.1 -
Good to see the NYT is prepared to publish articles like this again.FrancisUrquhart said:Paging Leon...
Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/opinion/covid-lab-leak.html0 -
I know. Saw it yesterdayFrancisUrquhart said:Paging Leon...
Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/opinion/covid-lab-leak.html
The NYT has always been a fierce advocate for wet
Market zoonosis shit. I believe that article concludes the debate for anyone not insane. It came from the lab. Even the NYT admits it now. It has caused howls of anguish in the last redoubts of the lonely virologists still trying to persuade us about bat soup and pangolins
In years to come we will be astonished that for several years a lot of people willingly disbelieved the screamingly obvious1 -
Rishi has plenty of money!Andy_JS said:
You mean the Tories started office with a note saying "There's no money left" and they leave office with the situation unchanged?Nigelb said:A reminder that Torsten Bell is a Labour candidate this time around.
UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
Labour and the Conservatives want to reduce national debt, but Resolution Foundation says promises ‘detached from reality’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/04/uk-faces-33bn-hole-in-finances-or-return-to-austerity-thinktank-says2 -
If that is Labour on 33.27 in Tewkesbury it is wrong. I have written about this constituency earlier and LDs are definitely running second.Benpointer said:
That's a trifle hard to follow, which numbers are which party?Andy_Cooke said:
Tewkesbury 34.69 33.27 17.58Cookie said:
I'm going for:Andy_Cooke said:
From recollection, Survation's MRP tends to give much lower Lib Dem seats and higher Labour seats. Including some rather strange outcomes in some seats (essentially almost every Lib Dem target seat sees its support collapse towards Labour under their model). But then they could have changed the modelling.wooliedyed said:Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n
It's interesting to see just how hugely the various MRP models vary amongst themselves. Personally, I'm betting on YouGov, but I suppose I would.
I'm going to guess c. 90-100 Con seats, 470-480 Labour seats, 20-25 LD seats, 25-35 SNP seats.
18 NI
3 PC
4 Others
10 SNP
50 LD
Torbay 31.88 34.39 18.26
St Albans 22.74 31.16 31.56
North Norfolk 34.09 32.91 17.69
Newton Abbot 32.32 32.67 17.97
Kingston and Surbiton 20.85 30.45 36.86
Hazel Grove 22.62 29.96 26.89
Guildford 26.68 27.93 29.32
Epsom and Ewell 33.42 33.17 20.71
Eastleigh 34.50 30.40 23.93
Carshalton and Wallington 23.12 30.63 31.90
Bath 19.66 32.72 36.54
Lib Dem vote shares get smashed everywhere by their model.
SNP on the other hand do really well almost everywhere (gotta go for dinner; can't give examples)
Btw Sporting Index has just seen some heavy selling of Conservative seats.0 -
This is in Essex. Everyone looks like that.Benpointer said:
She's denied it. https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. That's extraordinary if true. Presumably Nigel thinks he has a lot to gain by wallowing in victimhood.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/17980232906254172937 -
Trump was 2% ahead in the last MC poll and most other pollsters have it tied or Biden slightly ahead. We await his sentence and then the convention bounces and debates likely decide itSean_F said:On topic, Trump has edged ahead by 1% with Morning Consult. I don't think his convictions have shifted many votes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/0 -
They both have blonde hair. That’s it.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293
0 -
Is it possible the Greens could spring a surprise here, while simultaneously going down in support in Pavilion?Northern_Al said:
Absolute silence from the local party since LRM's suspension. I was getting multiple campaigning emails a day - zilch in recent days. Not even an announcement that Chris Ward is our candidate. I suspect that there's as much anger at the Ward anointment as at the LRM suspension - if LRM is to go, they at least want a local candidate. Opposition parties aren't exactly capitalising on the chaos - we've had no leaflets from any other party. Essentially, the GE campaign in Kemptown is currently comatose.CarlottaVance said:Not going quietly....
Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.
More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.
It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/0 -
Yes, I've long being a fan of their work.algarkirk said:
This will be interesting. Torsten Bell is one to watch. The Resolution Foundation is on my (shortish) list of wonk outfits to take seriously. (Others include RUSI, IFS, IfG, Chatham House).Nigelb said:A reminder that Torsten Bell is a Labour candidate this time around.
UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
Labour and the Conservatives want to reduce national debt, but Resolution Foundation says promises ‘detached from reality’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/04/uk-faces-33bn-hole-in-finances-or-return-to-austerity-thinktank-says
On the whole this is not consistent with party political engagement as such, as this deals essentially with distortion, exaggeration, polemic and so on. The late and much missed Frank Field is, in a sense, an example. His brief turn as a minister ceased once it was clear that he meant what he said.
Bell is obviously a lucky general. His inevitable book is due to be published on 13 June and has endorsements from all the right sort.
Their political slant is acknowledged, but they don't let it skew the numbers or analysis.
It will be interesting to see if he makes a good MP, or not. He's certainly a capable guy.0 -
No they don’t. She’s genuinely hotwilliamglenn said:
This is in Essex. Everyone looks like that.Benpointer said:
She's denied it. https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. That's extraordinary if true. Presumably Nigel thinks he has a lot to gain by wallowing in victimhood.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/17980232906254172930 -
The problem is the group think was awful for too long. It was quite understandable early on, nobody knew anything. But year 2 and 3, it was still very much in place.Andy_JS said:
Good to see the NYT is prepared to publish articles like this again.FrancisUrquhart said:Paging Leon...
Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/opinion/covid-lab-leak.html
It is interesting we are having this big inquiry into how badly government did. The media, zero self-reflectance. They were piss poor from understanding stats / science and outside a few, a uniform groupthink.1 -
Oh he is stupid enough. Whether he did is a different matterBenpointer said:
I thought they looked similar but she's very clearly denied it.Andy_JS said:
You don't have to be a super-recogniser to see that they're not the same person.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293
Also, such a stunt would obviously be found out - even Farage is not stupid enough to attempt it.0 -
Pink hoodie, Trackie bottoms, roots need doing.williamglenn said:
This is in Essex. Everyone looks like that.Benpointer said:
She's denied it. https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. That's extraordinary if true. Presumably Nigel thinks he has a lot to gain by wallowing in victimhood.eek said:It seems Nigel getting a pint of beer thrown at him was staged
https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293
Like the Toon on a Saturday.0 -
Trump was 2% ahead in the last MC poll, most other pollsters have it tied or Biden slightly ahead. We await his sentence and then the conventions and debates likely decide it.Sean_F said:On topic, Trump has edged ahead by 1% with Morning Consult. I don't think his convictions have shifted many votes.
One advantage the Democrats have is their convention is last this year and since 2000 the convention which went last has got the biggest poll bounce, for Gore in 2000, Bush in 2004, McCain in 2008, Obama in 2012, Clinton in 2016. Exception was 2020 when neither Biden nor Trump got a post convention poll bounce but then they were barely conventions at all just TV ads due to Covid
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/0 -
I sold Con seats on SPIN some time ago, and just bought LD on SpreadexPeter_the_Punter said:Btw Sporting Index has just seen some heavy selling of Conservative seats.
0 -
A pedant thinks that is unlikely.Flatlander said:
Those 4 wins should get an asterisk.tlg86 said:
Sounds like they are getting their excuses in early:Farooq said:
What actions?tlg86 said:Man City's actions today don't exactly scream innocent of all charges.
https://x.com/Lawton_Times/status/1797998795084423191
EXCLUSIVE: Man City launch unprecedented legal action against Premier League. Has sparked civil war among clubs with hearing due to start on June 10. City describing PL financial rules as ‘tyranny of the majority’. Full story here on
@TimesSport
Away at Crosby Marine in the Northern Premier League next season?
Marine have been promoted to National League North.2
