Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
Especially when each of them are likely to be sharing 40% of the vote between them and Labour is on 45%+.
I will say, stunts like this are very often counterproductive. Although it wouldn’t be a general election without something being thrown at a politician.
Now had a milkshake thrown over him.
Lock em up. Attack on democracy shouldn't be tolerated, be it when it was against Corbyn or Farage like this or the actual attenpts on lives. Because now this will just happen every day.
I want Farage elected just because of this
No one will ever bother in our democracy if we tolerate this. It’s putrid. And yes - same goes for Corbyn or Galloway
If you attack a politician you should do time
If you attack anyone you should do time. One law for rich and poor alike.
I will say, stunts like this are very often counterproductive. Although it wouldn’t be a general election without something being thrown at a politician.
Now had a milkshake thrown over him.
Lock em up. Attack on democracy shouldn't be tolerated, be it when it was against Corbyn or Farage like this or the actual attenpts on lives. Because now this will just happen every day.
I want Farage elected just because of this
No one will ever bother in our democracy if we tolerate this. It’s putrid. And yes - same goes for Corbyn or Galloway
If you attack a politician you should do time
The thing is we have had the weirdo people locked up for intimidating the likes of the egg heads and the extreme Brexit types against MPs who were prominent trying to stop Brexit. That was all taken incredibly seriously by the earnest media and the courts.
This will be laughed about, even if it any liquid could be in there.
Lucky the UK isn’t awash with guns . I loathe Farage but the public should stick to using the ballot box to make their point and not try and intimidate politicians.
Obviously even without widespread access to guns, we have lost several MPs in recent history to knife / sword attacks.
The thing is the more this happens, the more no MP will ever interact with the genuine public, which can't be a good thing (see Sunak leadership).
And who will ever stand for Parliament if we tolerate assault on them? The girl that chucked the milkshake needs a couple of weeks in prison and a criminal record. Make everyone else think twice
The police have been told not to arrest too many criminals.
Perhaps she should have said "Don't stand so close to me"
A really interesting article, an excerpt from a book that is due to come out, about the experience of a Czech athlete in the early 1900s and his transition.
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
How democratic are India's elections? I'm vaguely aware of hearing that since independence in 1947, two families have dominated India's politics and true choice is quite hard to come by.
My favourite was Daisy Cooper and her gang on the boat behind Rishi Sunak. As I said yesterday we might not be going to win the election but we are having great fun not doing so and I have to say the local campaign I have been involved in has been a huge amount of fun with lots of laughs. The most enjoyable so far and I have been involved in a lot.
I am going to miss it for the next 10 days as I cycle along the banks of the Loire. 7 days cycling, 400+ km to go. I might post some pictures but I don't have a Jess the cat or a dog for scale.
The Loire is lovely. I did it upstream as far as Cosne Cours sur Loire a couple of years back. Easy to make good progress and also easy to get utterly diverted and stop off in every town along the way. Enjoy. https://cycle.travel/route/loire
Yep same here I did Cycling for Softies there some time ago. Fantastic popping into out of the way chateaux to be greeted by the owners sitting outside in their faded cotton trousers offering you a glass of rosé.
I will use my one daily photo to show a lovely lady I met in my journey down the Loire. She owned this tiny chateau and these remarkable birds and she expertly flirted over her own wine as we lunched in her bucolic garden. Bliss
Gorgeous! It is very hard to beat France.
It is. Its a close contest between France and Italy for the most beautiful country in the world
We are lucky to have them on our doorstep
They also have different strengths as destinations. France is much better organised and has better infra, but the Italians are much more charming and affable - a serious positive
Britain beats them both hollow on noom but I accept most people aren’t looking for intense spiritual experiences of rhapsody or human bleakness when choosing a holiday; or even a home
You should visit Scotland a lot more, its beauty competes with anything in France I've seen - I can't say I've been everywhere there but I lived in Nice for three months and I've been around a fair bit.
Er, I know Scotland very well. I’ve been all over it. I’ve been to Foula and St Kilda! Harris and Orkney. Glasgow and Dundee. Edinburgh and the borders Kilmartin and knoydart and ardnamurchan and the trossachs
It is very beautiful in places. As are many parts of Britain - the Cornish creeks. The South Downs. The Welsh marches. Lakeland. Northumberland. Devon and Dorset
They just don’t compete in total variety and beauty with Italy and France to my mind
In terms of major countries and beauty per square mile I’d put Britain in the top ten
In fact as I am forever stuck at the Ukraine border I’ll have a go. I’m ignoring microstates and tiny islands etc
Top ten beautiful countries in terms of beauty per sq mile
Italy France Greece Turkey Switzerland USA Japan UK China Spain or Nepal
The US has a lot of natural beauty. But in terms of "per square mile", it isn't in the top 50. Large parts of the country are arid wilderness of a particularly boring kind.
Yes, I wrestled with that one. Same applies to China
But when America is beautiful - mainly in the west - it is often fantastically beautiful. Ditto China
How can you not include a country with Yosemite and the sequoias and the Arizonan deserts and the wildness of Utah? How can you not include a country that boasts Tibet and Yunnan?
So it had to go in
Because you chose a stupid metric for your futile listicle, you bellend.
Yeah but IVE JUST CROSSED THE FRONTIER INTO WAR TORN UKRAINE AND NOW I’M HEADING FOR FABLED ODESA, WHERE THE STEPS MEET THE SEA
What are you doing? Wanking about in your bedsit in Dundee staring at a traffic bollard
How democratic are India's elections? I'm vaguely aware of hearing that since independence in 1947, two families have dominated India's politics and true choice is quite hard to come by.
Well the leader of Congress is the son, grandson and great grandson of Prime Ministers of India. Which probably makes him a nepo-baby cubed.
Guido of idiot fame says 6 candidates may jump Con to Reform but only one is a former MP One Says they are waiting to see how Dishy does tonight
"May" being the operative word. He's usually full of shit. Just rampant clickbait,
It’s being reported by GB news rather than Guido, which in this case might actually provide legitimacy.
I’m a bit stunned at the lack of actual betting implication discourse on here. This site is a goldmine for legendary insight into the betting markets but you have to trawl through thousands of comments about European holidays and migration policy with very little relevance to actual Political Betting conversations.
At the moment there’s potentially huge money to be made trading on Reform / LDs with their odds moving wildly. I was hoping we’d get some more of that here!
Kudos to all the solid advice thus far, and don’t get me wrong also - discussion about polling, politicians etc is also very helpful even if not directly betting related it’s at least tangentially related and helpful. This place is a godsend compared to twitter and some of you are incredibly intelligent and insightful and I’ve learnt so much.
How democratic are India's elections? I'm vaguely aware of hearing that since independence in 1947, two families have dominated India's politics and true choice is quite hard to come by.
Only one family, the Gandhis (Congress Party, now in opposition).
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
A really interesting article, an excerpt from a book that is due to come out, about the experience of a Czech athlete in the early 1900s and his transition.
My favourite was Daisy Cooper and her gang on the boat behind Rishi Sunak. As I said yesterday we might not be going to win the election but we are having great fun not doing so and I have to say the local campaign I have been involved in has been a huge amount of fun with lots of laughs. The most enjoyable so far and I have been involved in a lot.
I am going to miss it for the next 10 days as I cycle along the banks of the Loire. 7 days cycling, 400+ km to go. I might post some pictures but I don't have a Jess the cat or a dog for scale.
The Loire is lovely. I did it upstream as far as Cosne Cours sur Loire a couple of years back. Easy to make good progress and also easy to get utterly diverted and stop off in every town along the way. Enjoy. https://cycle.travel/route/loire
Yep same here I did Cycling for Softies there some time ago. Fantastic popping into out of the way chateaux to be greeted by the owners sitting outside in their faded cotton trousers offering you a glass of rosé.
I will use my one daily photo to show a lovely lady I met in my journey down the Loire. She owned this tiny chateau and these remarkable birds and she expertly flirted over her own wine as we lunched in her bucolic garden. Bliss
Gorgeous! It is very hard to beat France.
It is. Its a close contest between France and Italy for the most beautiful country in the world
We are lucky to have them on our doorstep
They also have different strengths as destinations. France is much better organised and has better infra, but the Italians are much more charming and affable - a serious positive
Britain beats them both hollow on noom but I accept most people aren’t looking for intense spiritual experiences of rhapsody or human bleakness when choosing a holiday; or even a home
You should visit Scotland a lot more, its beauty competes with anything in France I've seen - I can't say I've been everywhere there but I lived in Nice for three months and I've been around a fair bit.
Er, I know Scotland very well. I’ve been all over it. I’ve been to Foula and St Kilda! Harris and Orkney. Glasgow and Dundee. Edinburgh and the borders Kilmartin and knoydart and ardnamurchan and the trossachs
It is very beautiful in places. As are many parts of Britain - the Cornish creeks. The South Downs. The Welsh marches. Lakeland. Northumberland. Devon and Dorset
They just don’t compete in total variety and beauty with Italy and France to my mind
In terms of major countries and beauty per square mile I’d put Britain in the top ten
In fact as I am forever stuck at the Ukraine border I’ll have a go. I’m ignoring microstates and tiny islands etc
Top ten beautiful countries in terms of beauty per sq mile
Italy France Greece Turkey Switzerland USA Japan UK China Spain or Nepal
The US has a lot of natural beauty. But in terms of "per square mile", it isn't in the top 50. Large parts of the country are arid wilderness of a particularly boring kind.
Yes, I wrestled with that one. Same applies to China
But when America is beautiful - mainly in the west - it is often fantastically beautiful. Ditto China
How can you not include a country with Yosemite and the sequoias and the Arizonan deserts and the wildness of Utah? How can you not include a country that boasts Tibet and Yunnan?
So it had to go in
Because you chose a stupid metric for your futile listicle, you bellend.
Yeah but IVE JUST CROSSED THE FRONTIER INTO WAR TORN UKRAINE AND NOW I’M HEADING FOR FABLED ODESA, WHERE THE STEPS MEET THE SEA
What are you doing? Wanking about in your bedsit in Dundee staring at a traffic bollard
Odessa looks better than Odesa, but OTOH it is the Russian spelling.
Does anyone else love the Canary Wharf area? I adore it. Could spend a week walking around without getting bored.
Can’t stand it myself, feels like soulless American downtown picked up and plonked in the capital. It feels like you ought to have your passport to gain entry.
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
It is a cruel mistress, perhaps the cruellest there is. WAR. And always - always the flashes of beauty amidst the horror. The stars that shine on the Black Sea, the flash of a dragonfly, iridescent blue in a poison garden
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
The easy counter to that would be to just raise the threshold and not abolish it altogether.
Does anyone else love the Canary Wharf area? I adore it. Could spend a week walking around without getting bored.
Can’t stand it myself, feels like soulless American downtown picked up and plonked in the capital. It feels like you ought to have your passport to gain entry.
It's better than it was but still has a bit of that vibe. I work there. More Canadian than American, in fact the whole layout and underground mall model was based on Toronto as I recall.
But this week I'm somewhere even more soulless: the Greenwich peninsula next to the O2. Real missed opportunity: they could have put suspended filters in the river water, shipped in a load of white sand, landscaped the riverfront and turned it into a proper Las Vegas on Thames but instead it's still a windswept post-industrial landscape with a big dome and some towerblocks, and a golf driving range.
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
The easy counter to that would be to just raise the threshold and not abolish it altogether.
It’s not such a headline grabbing policy in that respect . As to where they’ll find the money who knows unless the old tax avoidance gets wheeled out again .
It won’t make a lot of difference but is amusing to have your supporters being battered by low hanging foliage.
Some bus companies have old open-top busses that act as pruning busses; they go along double-decker routes with people standing on the top deck, pruning the worst vegetation. Farage should have thought of a little money-earner and given everyone on the top deck electric shears...
He certainly shouldn't have let a Tory plan the route....
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Yes, and Labour will be ready with ads pointing out how much richer the already-rolling in it Sunaks will be. Abolishing IHT could backfire on them.
Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .
The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .
Best way is to point at the consequences of no IHT is that a future Government could treat it as a type of income or capital gain.
At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...
As I said before - it looks like a great deal until you think about it for 30 seconds or more at which point you discover removing it opens up a whole set of (very tax collecting) options...
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
The question is, is there such a wing? There is in parliament but is there amongst the voters?
The problem with Sunak proposing to abolish Inheritance Tax is that it invites a retort along the lines of "So, what first attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?".
Does he really want the electorate to be reminded how fabulously wealthy he is, and what blessed good fortune his kids will have compared to everyone else's - with or without IHT?
A really interesting article, an excerpt from a book that is due to come out, about the experience of a Czech athlete in the early 1900s and his transition.
That's an interesting article thanks, and another little piece of evidence that trans people have always been around.
On a totally different point: it's also a sign of a more innocent time for the Olympics; when holding it did not risk bankrupting a nation. Perhaps we should get back to that...
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Yes, and Labour will be ready with ads pointing out how much richer the already-rolling in it Sunaks will be. Abolishing IHT could backfire on them.
It didn't do Cameron Or Ozzy any harm and it blew a hole under Brown's waterline
Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .
The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .
Best way is to point at the consequences of no IHT is that a future Government could treat it as a type of income or capital gain.
At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...
That's quite hard to convey to the public, who don't generally understand tax at all (most workers are on PAYE and don't really need to understand it). It could be done, but would need clear messaging.
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
Doesn't your suspicion kind of indicate which way it would go?
No doubt there are some people saying RefUK who voted Green or whatever last time - there are always eccentrics. But essentially the pool they are fishing in is those people who voted Tory without holding their nose last time - who liked Brexit, liked Johnson, and now feel let down. Moderates whose Tory vote in 2019 was in large part about concern over Corbyn and came despite the other stuff are also likely to switch - but not to RefUK.
That's not a tiny pond for RefUK to fish in, but I just don't see how it translates to the sort of vote share they need in individual seats to win.
It limits them to Tory held safe seats in strongly Brexit areas really. The marginals are going Labour or Lib Dem. And the Tory held safe seats will often have established Tory MPs up against RefUK candidates who aren't strong - Farage is only standing in one seat, and the rest are often slightly odd characters. So I can't really see a stampede across.
Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .
The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .
It feels like Labour can just deadbat any Tory policy with "This is an ill conceived policy from a failing Tory campaign, if [policy x] was such a good idea, why haven't they done it in the 14 years they have been in power."
The problem with Sunak proposing to abolish Inheritance Tax is that it invites a retort along the lines of "So, what first attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?".
Does he really want the electorate to be reminded how fabulously wealthy he is, and what blessed good fortune his kids will have compared to everyone else's - with or without IHT?
Agree. It lends itself very easily to Labour attack lines that Sunak and co are only in it for the money, and probably helps Starmer look more fiscally credible.
Nevertheless the Tories will probably do it because they’ve not got much left they can try.
The problem with Sunak proposing to abolish Inheritance Tax is that it invites a retort along the lines of "So, what first attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?".
Does he really want the electorate to be reminded how fabulously wealthy he is, and what blessed good fortune his kids will have compared to everyone else's - with or without IHT?
No. The first retort will be how many millions will your daughters avoid in tax with this policy.
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
On topic, more or less: After Nancy Pelosi became speaker, I found -- to my distress --that I could predict most of what she would do by consulting "The Last Hurrah", and Mike Royko's "Boss".
When Donald Trump became president I found -- to my distress -- that I could predict about 75 percent of what he would do by consulting the comic strip, "Calvin and Hobbes". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvin_and_Hobbes
There is one particular strip that is almost eerie in its description of the Loser's values:
Calvin asks Hobbes: "What do you htink is the secret to happiness? Is it money, power, or fame? Calvin: I'd choose money. If you have enough money, you can buy power and fame. That way you'd have it all and be really happy. Calvin: Happiness is being famous for your financial ability to indulge in every kind of excess. Hobbes: I suppose that's one way to define it. Calvin: The part I think I'd like best is crushing people who get in my way. (p. 35 in "The Authoritative Calvin and Hobbes" and, I imagine, elsewhere.)
(If the headline I read recently is accurate, the Guardian -- which isn't wrong about everything --provided some documentation for the last.)
Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .
The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .
Best way is to point at the consequences of no IHT is that a future Government could treat it as a type of income or capital gain.
At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...
As I said before - it looks like a great deal until you think about it for 30 seconds or more at which point you discover removing it opens up a whole set of (very tax collecting) options...
They will presumably have been war-gaming this as it's one of the most obvious potential moves. I've been predicting something on IHT for months.
IHT is one example of a tax where aspects of the dreaded Laffer curve might actually apply. The rate is the thing people find objectionable. It's significantly higher than most peer countries. A lower rate, say 20 or 25%, and slightly broader base with fewer exemptions, might actually bring in more money.
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
The question is, is there such a wing? There is in parliament but is there amongst the voters?
There’s definitely that sort of centrist middle ground tendency in the Party, although some may currently be on a membership hiatus.
Yay. I FINALLY found a Tory to Reform switcher! Was beginning to think my sampling was way off.
(He believes all current politicians are liars. Tories will be found out this time, Labour next, and in five years time it will leave Reform as the only non-lying party. That's one to bookmark!)
"Major hospitals in London have declared a critical incident after a cyber-attack led to operations being cancelled and emergency patients being diverted elsewhere.
It applies to hospitals partnered with Synnovis - a provider of pathology services. King’s College Hospital, Guy’s and St Thomas’ - including the Royal Brompton and the Evelina London Children’s Hospital - and primary care services are among those affected. The incident has had a "major impact" on the delivery of services, especially blood transfusions and test results.
According to the Health Service Journal (HSJ), several senior sources have told it the system has been the victim of a ransomware attack."
Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .
The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .
It feels like Labour can just deadbat any Tory policy with "This is an ill conceived policy from a failing Tory campaign, if [policy x] was such a good idea, why haven't they done it in the 14 years they have been in power."
Because that's an argument that can be lazily wheeled out at every election. Times change.
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Yes, and Labour will be ready with ads pointing out how much richer the already-rolling in it Sunaks will be. Abolishing IHT could backfire on them.
It didn't do Cameron Or Ozzy any harm and it blew a hole under Brown's waterline
Agree, but Sunak's huge wealth is an issue in a way that it wasn't for Cameron or Osborne.
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Was discussing with my wife only a couple of days ago. Her friend's parents had recently moved and put the new house in their children's names as an IHT dodge, she was suggesting that her parents/my parents should do the same. I did my whole socialist 'inherited wealth should be taxed and I don't mind paying tax on any inheritance' thing first, then pointed out that our parents' estates (and the friend's parents', I think) would be unlikely to attract IHT anyway.
(I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
The problem with Sunak proposing to abolish Inheritance Tax is that it invites a retort along the lines of "So, what first attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?".
Does he really want the electorate to be reminded how fabulously wealthy he is, and what blessed good fortune his kids will have compared to everyone else's - with or without IHT?
No. The first retort will be how many millions will your daughters avoid in tax with this policy.
And Sunak will reply “Ha, they won’t be liable anyway, you suckers, by the time they inherit their parents’ money we will be out of your stinking poor gloomy damp country and living next door to the Sussexes in California. Vote change, vote Comservative, now if you’ll excuse me I’ve got a helicopter to catch.”
It won’t make a lot of difference but is amusing to have your supporters being battered by low hanging foliage.
Some bus companies have old open-top busses that act as pruning busses; they go along double-decker routes with people standing on the top deck, pruning the worst vegetation. Farage should have thought of a little money-earner and given everyone on the top deck electric shears...
"Cutting through this foliage like we'll cut through government red tape"!
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
The question is, is there such a wing? There is in parliament but is there amongst the voters?
Of course there is.
We know this multiple ways:
Firstly, your regular reminder that Farage got beaten by a Pro European Conservative when stood against the Speaker. And he lost in Thanet, to the Conservatives, at the height of the UKIP boom and when unhappiness with the EU was at its peak.
Secondly, the yougov data on "seven tribes" is very informative. Farage has great reach with the Strong Right and Somewheres... But scores very poorly with the Global Capitalists and the Centrists. Those tribes exist, and they're a good portion of the electorate.
Thirdly, remember it was Cameron who got elected PM with get first majority since Major. Now, sure, Boris did well. But Boris was also facing Corbyn.
Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .
The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .
Best way is to point at the consequences of no IHT is that a future Government could treat it as a type of income or capital gain.
At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...
As I said before - it looks like a great deal until you think about it for 30 seconds or more at which point you discover removing it opens up a whole set of (very tax collecting) options...
They will presumably have been war-gaming this as it's one of the most obvious potential moves. I've been predicting something on IHT for months.
IHT is one example of a tax where aspects of the dreaded Laffer curve might actually apply. The rate is the thing people find objectionable. It's significantly higher than most peer countries. A lower rate, say 20 or 25%, and slightly broader base with fewer exemptions, might actually bring in more money.
Yep but the policy isn't to reform / simplify it - the policy is to abolish it.
And Labour could very easily go - yep great idea - without no need to mention what they plan to replace it with (for which see my comment above)..
Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .
The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .
Best way is to point at the consequences of no IHT is that a future Government could treat it as a type of income or capital gain.
At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...
As I said before - it looks like a great deal until you think about it for 30 seconds or more at which point you discover removing it opens up a whole set of (very tax collecting) options...
They will presumably have been war-gaming this as it's one of the most obvious potential moves. I've been predicting something on IHT for months.
IHT is one example of a tax where aspects of the dreaded Laffer curve might actually apply. The rate is the thing people find objectionable. It's significantly higher than most peer countries. A lower rate, say 20 or 25%, and slightly broader base with fewer exemptions, might actually bring in more money.
“War gaming”??
War my friend, war is not a game. Not to those that have been there, and returned
No. No no no
Fucking hell get me off this bus and into a bar. NOW
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
How big is the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party, and how many of them have stuck with the party?
The problem with Sunak proposing to abolish Inheritance Tax is that it invites a retort along the lines of "So, what first attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?".
Does he really want the electorate to be reminded how fabulously wealthy he is, and what blessed good fortune his kids will have compared to everyone else's - with or without IHT?
No. The first retort will be how many millions will your daughters avoid in tax with this policy.
The 'Farage not welcome here' protesters have also arrived.
Which is fine. Physical assault - absolutely not
A politically-motivated assault should be charged as an aggravated offence, by the State without reference to the victim’s willingness to prosecute, and with a custodial sentence expected.
Otherwise dozens of idiots are going to try and film themselves assaulting politicans, for social media ‘clout’ during the campaign.
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Was discussing with my wife only a couple of days ago. Her friend's parents had recently moved and put the new house in their children's names as an IHT dodge, she was suggesting that her parents/my parents should do the same. I did my whole socialist 'inherited wealth should be taxed and I don't mind paying tax on any inheritance' thing first, then pointed out that our parents' estates (and the friend's parents', I think) would be unlikely to attract IHT anyway.
(I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
Forget the socialist stuff - you could simply point out it won't work.
(a) the friend's parents are still getting benefit (ie living in it), so it's a gift with reservation of benefit ... and so taxable for IHT. Even if they weren't living in it there'd be a timed taper (and CGT implications when it was sold, the CGT falling on the children). (b) how would it affect an insurance claim? (c) there's already a huge allowance specifically and only for transger of the parental house to children etc
PS also
(d) if parents go into care, LA will look on this as a fraud aimed at care costs, and deny any care subsidy.
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
How big is the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party, and how many of them have stuck with the party?
Well, I think Sunak's great talent is that he's managed to piss off both wings of the party.
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Was discussing with my wife only a couple of days ago. Her friend's parents had recently moved and put the new house in their children's names as an IHT dodge, she was suggesting that her parents/my parents should do the same. I did my whole socialist 'inherited wealth should be taxed and I don't mind paying tax on any inheritance' thing first, then pointed out that our parents' estates (and the friend's parents', I think) would be unlikely to attract IHT anyway.
(I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
I suspect that was a fairly foolish thing to do unless her friend's parents are also paying the full market rate for the property. One problem with knowing a fair bit about tax avoidance is that I know schemes like that can be seen through when HMRC come calling - so all they've done there is add a very expensive tax barrister bill before the remaining money is shared out.
To answer the other question, nope but assuming any of the children own a property they should have paid the stamp duty surcharge...
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Was discussing with my wife only a couple of days ago. Her friend's parents had recently moved and put the new house in their children's names as an IHT dodge, she was suggesting that her parents/my parents should do the same. I did my whole socialist 'inherited wealth should be taxed and I don't mind paying tax on any inheritance' thing first, then pointed out that our parents' estates (and the friend's parents', I think) would be unlikely to attract IHT anyway.
(I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
That doesn't work - as mentioned below it's a gift with reservation of benefit. Additionally capital gains will now be chargeable on the appreciation that happens 6 month after transfer to when the house is sold, so it leaves them in a substantially worse position. Also - since it's a connected person transaction stamp duty is due at the value of the house, not the sale price! They should unwind asap and beg mercy.
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
The question is, is there such a wing? There is in parliament but is there amongst the voters?
Of course there is.
We know this multiple ways:
Firstly, your regular reminder that Farage got beaten by a Pro European Conservative when stood against the Speaker. And he lost in Thanet, to the Conservatives, at the height of the UKIP boom and when unhappiness with the EU was at its peak.
Secondly, the yougov data on "seven tribes" is very informative. Farage has great reach with the Strong Right and Somewheres... But scores very poorly with the Global Capitalists and the Centrists. Those tribes exist, and they're a good portion of the electorate.
Thirdly, remember it was Cameron who got elected PM with get first majority since Major. Now, sure, Boris did well. But Boris was also facing Corbyn.
True but I wonder if this time he wins anyway since opposition will split between Labour and the Conservatives
This is the same bloke who last year was saying everybody needs to be more tolerant and cricket is terribly racist. Also interesting that Michael Vaughan got chunked under the bus and thrown off the commentary team for over a year (not long enough IMO as he is rubbish).
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Was discussing with my wife only a couple of days ago. Her friend's parents had recently moved and put the new house in their children's names as an IHT dodge, she was suggesting that her parents/my parents should do the same. I did my whole socialist 'inherited wealth should be taxed and I don't mind paying tax on any inheritance' thing first, then pointed out that our parents' estates (and the friend's parents', I think) would be unlikely to attract IHT anyway.
(I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
Forget the socialist stuff - you could simply point out it won't work.
(a) the friend's parents are still getting benefit (ie living in it), so it's a gift with reservation of benefit ... and so taxable for IHT. Even if they weren't living in it there'd be a timed taper (and CGT implications when it was sold, the CGT falling on the children). (b) how would it affect an insurance claim? (c) there's already a huge allowance specifically and only for transger of the parental house to children etc
PS also
(d) if parents go into care, LA will look on this as a fraud aimed at care costs, and deny any care subsidy.
House ownership is on a public register, too ...
Yes, I had (c) in mind. I also pointed out (d) with respect to my own parents where this is likely to be assessed quite soon. I didn't know about (a) and for (b) - who knows?
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
The question is, is there such a wing? There is in parliament but is there amongst the voters?
Of course there is.
We know this multiple ways:
Firstly, your regular reminder that Farage got beaten by a Pro European Conservative when stood against the Speaker. And he lost in Thanet, to the Conservatives, at the height of the UKIP boom and when unhappiness with the EU was at its peak.
Secondly, the yougov data on "seven tribes" is very informative. Farage has great reach with the Strong Right and Somewheres... But scores very poorly with the Global Capitalists and the Centrists. Those tribes exist, and they're a good portion of the electorate.
Thirdly, remember it was Cameron who got elected PM with get first majority since Major. Now, sure, Boris did well. But Boris was also facing Corbyn.
True but I wonder if this time he wins anyway since opposition will split between Labour and the Conservatives
He might do. But here's the question: will some Labour supporters vote tactically against him?
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
This wing is quite small, electorally, though and to some extent will plump for the main right-wing party alternative anyway.
If British elections became Reform v Labour I don't think Labour would be in forevermore due to squeamishness about action on immigration.
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Was discussing with my wife only a couple of days ago. Her friend's parents had recently moved and put the new house in their children's names as an IHT dodge, she was suggesting that her parents/my parents should do the same. I did my whole socialist 'inherited wealth should be taxed and I don't mind paying tax on any inheritance' thing first, then pointed out that our parents' estates (and the friend's parents', I think) would be unlikely to attract IHT anyway.
(I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
Forget the socialist stuff - you could simply point out it won't work.
(a) the friend's parents are still getting benefit (ie living in it), so it's a gift with reservation of benefit ... and so taxable for IHT. Even if they weren't living in it there'd be a timed taper (and CGT implications when it was sold, the CGT falling on the children). (b) how would it affect an insurance claim? (c) there's already a huge allowance specifically and only for transger of the parental house to children etc
PS also
(d) if parents go into care, LA will look on this as a fraud aimed at care costs, and deny any care subsidy.
House ownership is on a public register, too ...
Yes, I had (c) in mind. I also pointed out (d) with respect to my own parents where this is likely to be assessed quite soon. I didn't know about (a) and for (b) - who knows?
Funnily enough (d) is one of the only areas it does work in - deprivation of assets only applies once the need for care is known. If they transferred it prior to startign the ball rolling then the council is out of luck. That being said the stamp duty and cap gains tax will likely cost them a lot more than this!
Does anyone else love the Canary Wharf area? I adore it. Could spend a week walking around without getting bored.
Can’t stand it myself, feels like soulless American downtown picked up and plonked in the capital. It feels like you ought to have your passport to gain entry.
It's better than it was but still has a bit of that vibe. I work there. More Canadian than American, in fact the whole layout and underground mall model was based on Toronto as I recall.
But this week I'm somewhere even more soulless: the Greenwich peninsula next to the O2. Real missed opportunity: they could have put suspended filters in the river water, shipped in a load of white sand, landscaped the riverfront and turned it into a proper Las Vegas on Thames but instead it's still a windswept post-industrial landscape with a big dome and some towerblocks, and a golf driving range.
I've done three separate six month stints working there, but have never managed to properly form a mental model of how the underground bit is laid out.
I've never quite got entirely lost, but I've certainly walked in cirlces more than once, and would be completely useless if asked to give someone directions. Something to do with the lack of a horizon, combined with the grid system which turns every journey into a series of zig-zags with a number of plausible options at every turn.
The 'Farage not welcome here' protesters have also arrived.
Which is fine. Physical assault - absolutely not
A politically-motivated assault should be charged as an aggravated offence, by the State without reference to the victim’s willingness to prosecute, and with a custodial sentence expected.
Otherwise dozens of idiots are going to try and film themselves assaulting politicans, for social media ‘clout’ during the campaign.
Yes absolutely. This could end democracy in a week if we tolerate this. Instant jail for assaulting a politician who is doing their democratic business. I don’t care if it’s fricking geo galloway or even a Scot nat or sinn bloody fein
Exemplary sentence and jail time pour decourager les autres
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Was discussing with my wife only a couple of days ago. Her friend's parents had recently moved and put the new house in their children's names as an IHT dodge, she was suggesting that her parents/my parents should do the same. I did my whole socialist 'inherited wealth should be taxed and I don't mind paying tax on any inheritance' thing first, then pointed out that our parents' estates (and the friend's parents', I think) would be unlikely to attract IHT anyway.
(I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
Forget the socialist stuff - you could simply point out it won't work.
(a) the friend's parents are still getting benefit (ie living in it), so it's a gift with reservation of benefit ... and so taxable for IHT. Even if they weren't living in it there'd be a timed taper (and CGT implications when it was sold, the CGT falling on the children). (b) how would it affect an insurance claim? (c) there's already a huge allowance specifically and only for transger of the parental house to children etc
PS also
(d) if parents go into care, LA will look on this as a fraud aimed at care costs, and deny any care subsidy.
House ownership is on a public register, too ...
Yes, I had (c) in mind. I also pointed out (d) with respect to my own parents where this is likely to be assessed quite soon. I didn't know about (a) and for (b) - who knows?
On (b), insurance firms won't like a claim on a house where there is somewthing dodgy. Excuses to get out are employed if available. And when theyt spot it ...
On (a), it's an absolutely basic thing for IHT, not just for houses. I can't leave my 4.2 litre Jag to my niece and expect to continue to use it as a runabout.
Yay. I FINALLY found a Tory to Reform switcher! Was beginning to think my sampling was way off.
(He believes all current politicians are liars. Tories will be found out this time, Labour next, and in five years time it will leave Reform as the only non-lying party. That's one to bookmark!)
Send their details to the BBC for the Question Time audience.
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
How big is the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party, and how many of them have stuck with the party?
Well, I think Sunak's great talent is that he's managed to piss off both wings of the party.
Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .
The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .
Best way is to point at the consequences of no IHT is that a future Government could treat it as a type of income or capital gain.
At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...
As I said before - it looks like a great deal until you think about it for 30 seconds or more at which point you discover removing it opens up a whole set of (very tax collecting) options...
No. Then the Tories immediately counter with 'Labour's death tax plan laid bare for all to see. They are coming for everything you worked for to provide for your loved ones'
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
The question is, is there such a wing? There is in parliament but is there amongst the voters?
How would Cameron himself vote, if he had a vote of course? I suspect he would vote LD if he wasn't still in the cabinet and the Lords.
Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.
The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.
Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.
Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.
And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.
If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
I agree with the first part of that.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
The question is, is there such a wing? There is in parliament but is there amongst the voters?
Of course there is.
We know this multiple ways:
Firstly, your regular reminder that Farage got beaten by a Pro European Conservative when stood against the Speaker. And he lost in Thanet, to the Conservatives, at the height of the UKIP boom and when unhappiness with the EU was at its peak.
Secondly, the yougov data on "seven tribes" is very informative. Farage has great reach with the Strong Right and Somewheres... But scores very poorly with the Global Capitalists and the Centrists. Those tribes exist, and they're a good portion of the electorate.
Thirdly, remember it was Cameron who got elected PM with get first majority since Major. Now, sure, Boris did well. But Boris was also facing Corbyn.
True but I wonder if this time he wins anyway since opposition will split between Labour and the Conservatives
If Reform started to poll better than the Conservatives would you be considering a Reform vote to stop Labour?
I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
Was discussing with my wife only a couple of days ago. Her friend's parents had recently moved and put the new house in their children's names as an IHT dodge, she was suggesting that her parents/my parents should do the same. I did my whole socialist 'inherited wealth should be taxed and I don't mind paying tax on any inheritance' thing first, then pointed out that our parents' estates (and the friend's parents', I think) would be unlikely to attract IHT anyway.
(I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
That doesn't work - as mentioned below it's a gift with reservation of benefit. Additionally capital gains will now be chargeable on the appreciation that happens 6 month after transfer to when the house is sold, so it leaves them in a substantially worse position. Also - since it's a connected person transaction stamp duty is due at the value of the house, not the sale price! They should unwind asap and beg mercy.
The CGT allowance is now so poor at £3K per person per year, too, compared to the massive and up to £1m one off CGT allowance which IHT effectively gives.
Doesn't make sense to tighten the one and loosen the other even more. Unless one is a gerontophiliac Tory Party.
Comments
https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/a-forgotten-athlete-a-nazi-official-and-the-origins-of-sex-testing-at-the-olympics
Reform are pitching for the Strong Right and Somewheres.
Sunak is a Kind Young Capitalist.
Those three together come to 51%.
I'm vaguely aware of hearing that since independence in 1947, two families have dominated India's politics and true choice is quite hard to come by.
What are you doing? Wanking about in your bedsit in Dundee staring at a traffic bollard
I’m a bit stunned at the lack of actual betting implication discourse on here. This site is a goldmine for legendary insight into the betting markets but you have to trawl through thousands of comments about European holidays and migration policy with very little relevance to actual Political Betting conversations.
At the moment there’s potentially huge money to be made trading on Reform / LDs with their odds moving wildly. I was hoping we’d get some more of that here!
Kudos to all the solid advice thus far, and don’t get me wrong also - discussion about polling, politicians etc is also very helpful even if not directly betting related it’s at least tangentially related and helpful. This place is a godsend compared to twitter and some of you are incredibly intelligent and insightful and I’ve learnt so much.
Hope she's told Keir.
Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .
There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .
I should go back and explore. But as ever, these city places can feel very different on a weekend than they do on a weekday.
You want to know about WAR?
Let me tell you about WAR
It is a cruel mistress, perhaps the cruellest there is. WAR. And always - always the flashes of beauty amidst the horror. The stars that shine on the Black Sea, the flash of a dragonfly, iridescent blue in a poison garden
Also, buses are often delayed
But this week I'm somewhere even more soulless: the Greenwich peninsula next to the O2. Real missed opportunity: they could have put suspended filters in the river water, shipped in a load of white sand, landscaped the riverfront and turned it into a proper Las Vegas on Thames but instead it's still a windswept post-industrial landscape with a big dome and some towerblocks, and a golf driving range.
But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?
The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .
Abolishing IHT could backfire on them.
At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...
As I said before - it looks like a great deal until you think about it for 30 seconds or more at which point you discover removing it opens up a whole set of (very tax collecting) options...
Does he really want the electorate to be reminded how fabulously wealthy he is, and what blessed good fortune his kids will have compared to everyone else's - with or without IHT?
On a totally different point: it's also a sign of a more innocent time for the Olympics; when holding it did not risk bankrupting a nation. Perhaps we should get back to that...
No doubt there are some people saying RefUK who voted Green or whatever last time - there are always eccentrics. But essentially the pool they are fishing in is those people who voted Tory without holding their nose last time - who liked Brexit, liked Johnson, and now feel let down. Moderates whose Tory vote in 2019 was in large part about concern over Corbyn and came despite the other stuff are also likely to switch - but not to RefUK.
That's not a tiny pond for RefUK to fish in, but I just don't see how it translates to the sort of vote share they need in individual seats to win.
It limits them to Tory held safe seats in strongly Brexit areas really. The marginals are going Labour or Lib Dem. And the Tory held safe seats will often have established Tory MPs up against RefUK candidates who aren't strong - Farage is only standing in one seat, and the rest are often slightly odd characters. So I can't really see a stampede across.
Nevertheless the Tories will probably do it because they’ve not got much left they can try.
When Donald Trump became president I found -- to my distress -- that I could predict about 75 percent of what he would do by consulting the comic strip, "Calvin and Hobbes".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvin_and_Hobbes
There is one particular strip that is almost eerie in its description of the Loser's values:
Calvin asks Hobbes: "What do you htink is the secret to happiness? Is it money, power, or fame?
Calvin: I'd choose money. If you have enough money, you can buy power and fame. That way you'd have it all and be really happy.
Calvin: Happiness is being famous for your financial ability to indulge in every kind of excess.
Hobbes: I suppose that's one way to define it. Calvin: The part I think I'd like best is crushing people who get in my way.
(p. 35 in "The Authoritative Calvin and Hobbes" and, I imagine, elsewhere.)
(If the headline I read recently is accurate, the Guardian -- which isn't wrong about everything --provided some documentation for the last.)
IHT is one example of a tax where aspects of the dreaded Laffer curve might actually apply. The rate is the thing people find objectionable. It's significantly higher than most peer countries. A lower rate, say 20 or 25%, and slightly broader base with fewer exemptions, might actually bring in more money.
(There's my one picture for the day)
(He believes all current politicians are liars. Tories will be found out this time, Labour next, and in five years time it will leave Reform as the only non-lying party. That's one to bookmark!)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c288n8rkpvno
"Major hospitals in London have declared a critical incident after a cyber-attack led to operations being cancelled and emergency patients being diverted elsewhere.
It applies to hospitals partnered with Synnovis - a provider of pathology services. King’s College Hospital, Guy’s and St Thomas’ - including the Royal Brompton and the Evelina London Children’s Hospital - and primary care services are among those affected. The incident has had a "major impact" on the delivery of services, especially blood transfusions and test results.
According to the Health Service Journal (HSJ), several senior sources have told it the system has been the victim of a ransomware attack."
What’s that? You want to know more about the war?
WAR
If only you could see the things these eyes have seen
*stares across the empty steppes of black soiled Ukraine, blinking handsomely in the driven dust*
That, my old friend, THAT is war. It cannot be described merely witnessed. And I shall bear this truth unto the people
(I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
Excellent.
We know this multiple ways:
Firstly, your regular reminder that Farage got beaten by a Pro European Conservative when stood against the Speaker. And he lost in Thanet, to the Conservatives, at the height of the UKIP boom and when unhappiness with the EU was at its peak.
Secondly, the yougov data on "seven tribes" is very informative. Farage has great reach with the Strong Right and Somewheres... But scores very poorly with the Global Capitalists and the Centrists. Those tribes exist, and they're a good portion of the electorate.
Thirdly, remember it was Cameron who got elected PM with get first majority since Major. Now, sure, Boris did well. But Boris was also facing Corbyn.
And Labour could very easily go - yep great idea - without no need to mention what they plan to replace it with (for which see my comment above)..
War my friend, war is not a game. Not to those that have been there, and returned
No. No no no
Fucking hell get me off this bus and into a bar. NOW
Otherwise dozens of idiots are going to try and film themselves assaulting politicans, for social media ‘clout’ during the campaign.
(a) the friend's parents are still getting benefit (ie living in it), so it's a gift with reservation of benefit ... and so taxable for IHT. Even if they weren't living in it there'd be a timed taper (and CGT implications when it was sold, the CGT falling on the children).
(b) how would it affect an insurance claim?
(c) there's already a huge allowance specifically and only for transger of the parental house to children etc
PS also
(d) if parents go into care, LA will look on this as a fraud aimed at care costs, and deny any care subsidy.
House ownership is on a public register, too ...
To answer the other question, nope but assuming any of the children own a property they should have paid the stamp duty surcharge...
Using my quota on this.
He also accused Israel of lying about the al-Ahli hospital rocket attack, in which hundreds of people died on Oct 17.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/04/bbc-cricket-pundit-hitler-moustache-photo-sunak/
This is the same bloke who last year was saying everybody needs to be more tolerant and cricket is terribly racist. Also interesting that Michael Vaughan got chunked under the bus and thrown off the commentary team for over a year (not long enough IMO as he is rubbish).
If British elections became Reform v Labour I don't think Labour would be in forevermore due to squeamishness about action on immigration.
Hint it's a very bad idea...
I've never quite got entirely lost, but I've certainly walked in cirlces more than once, and would be completely useless if asked to give someone directions. Something to do with the lack of a horizon, combined with the grid system which turns every journey into a series of zig-zags with a number of plausible options at every turn.
Exemplary sentence and jail time pour decourager les autres
On (a), it's an absolutely basic thing for IHT, not just for houses. I can't leave my 4.2 litre Jag to my niece and expect to continue to use it as a runabout.
*'Hell yes!'
Doesn't make sense to tighten the one and loosen the other even more. Unless one is a gerontophiliac Tory Party.