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Being a convicted felon has consequences – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I suspect Hunt will go for the 'abolish IHT' thing. But no-one will like it. Apart from maybe @HYUFD !

    The grey vote will love it. They are under the illusion often that IHT gets in the way of looking after their family, even when it is not. Ambulance chasing tax inspectors are an evil to be extinguished forever
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    Andy_JS said:

    Bloody hell.

    "Modi set to lose majority in shock Indian election result"

    https://www.ft.com

    Amazing news from India!
    Good news given his direction of travel.
    Two ways he goes from here. Either takes this as a salutary reminder that he's human and should learn some humility, or a strong hint that next time he mustn't be so careless.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Right wing nutter giving a speech on the BBC News Channel.

    No, not Farage (for once) - Modi.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited June 4
    Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.

    Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603
    Under Labour's plans for new towns, Clacton would be a good location for loads of investment and expansion.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    Man City's actions today don't exactly scream innocent of all charges.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    IHT is a winner. Nobody cares how rich Richi is...

    @mikeysmith

    STORY

    Rishi Sunak rolls into Manchester carrying £1,460 worth of luxury luggage.

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1798010556416451040
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    I suspect Hunt will go for the 'abolish IHT' thing. But no-one will like it. Apart from maybe @HYUFD !

    The grey vote will love it. They are under the illusion often that IHT gets in the way of looking after their family, even when it is not. Ambulance chasing tax inspectors are an evil to be extinguished forever
    Er, surely hearse chasing ...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited June 4
    Carnyx said:

    Chameleon said:

    Selebian said:

    nico679 said:

    I think Osborne is right that the Tories will put a promise in their manifesto to abolish IHT.

    Although it only effects 4% of estates the public seem to think its a lot more . This is one policy that may well move the polls if the Tories can find a way of paying for it that’s not laughed at .

    There are still risks with this policy . Sunaks kids would see a few hundred million pound saving which might not go down too well .

    Was discussing with my wife only a couple of days ago. Her friend's parents had recently moved and put the new house in their children's names as an IHT dodge, she was suggesting that her parents/my parents should do the same. I did my whole socialist 'inherited wealth should be taxed and I don't mind paying tax on any inheritance' thing first, then pointed out that our parents' estates (and the friend's parents', I think) would be unlikely to attract IHT anyway.

    (I also wondered how that affects stamp duty if friend is to move - would they be hit with the extra rate for owning two homes?)
    That doesn't work - as mentioned below it's a gift with reservation of benefit. Additionally capital gains will now be chargeable on the appreciation that happens 6 month after transfer to when the house is sold, so it leaves them in a substantially worse position. Also - since it's a connected person transaction stamp duty is due at the value of the house, not the sale price! They should unwind asap and beg mercy.
    The CGT allowance is now so poor at £3K per person per year, too, compared to the massive £1m one off CGT allowance which IHT effectively gives.

    Doesn't make sense to tighten the one and loosen the other even more. Unless one is a gerontophiliac Tory Party.
    The Tory, yes Tory, government have cut CGT allowance over the past few years. It used to be £12k (if I remember correctly).
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,721
    Thanks @Carnyx , @eek , @Chameleon - all interesting and I have learned some things. As noted, I'd have no interest in doing it anyway, even if it did work, but I will pass on this knowledge to my wife.

    @Carnyx - do you really have 4.2L Jag?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,579
    .

    The problem with Sunak proposing to abolish Inheritance Tax is that it invites a retort along the lines of "So, what first attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?".

    Does he really want the electorate to be reminded how fabulously wealthy he is, and what blessed good fortune his kids will have compared to everyone else's - with or without IHT?

    No. The first retort will be how many millions will your daughters avoid in tax with this policy.
    To which the answer is almost certainly ‘nothing at all’.

    They’ll likely be domiciled elsewhere when the time comes, and the seriously wealthy have always managed to avoid IHT with various trust and offshore structures.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555



    Using my quota on this.

    Appearing on 50 giant Clacton billboards in 5, 4, 3....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Carnyx said:

    I suspect Hunt will go for the 'abolish IHT' thing. But no-one will like it. Apart from maybe @HYUFD !

    The grey vote will love it. They are under the illusion often that IHT gets in the way of looking after their family, even when it is not. Ambulance chasing tax inspectors are an evil to be extinguished forever
    Er, surely hearse chasing ...
    They get a stiffy at the profitable thought of possible death
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344

    Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.

    Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....

    Surprisingly few companies that sport the pride logo display it in their middle Eastern divisions. If one was feeling uncharitable, one might call them hypocrites.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.

    Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Farage's beer attack today will get him yet more publicity. Another day leading the headlines.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Andy_JS said:

    "25 year old woman arrested on suspicion of assault after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage." BBC News.

    I bet she won't bother to vote either.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    Scott_xP said:

    IHT is a winner. Nobody cares how rich Richi is...

    @mikeysmith

    STORY

    Rishi Sunak rolls into Manchester carrying £1,460 worth of luxury luggage.

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1798010556416451040

    Would you prefer he carried stuff in a Tesco bag for life?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    tlg86 said:

    Man City's actions today don't exactly scream innocent of all charges.

    Talking of football, after Real Madrid’s win on Saturday, Arsenal and Real have won as many European Cups/Champions leagues as Liverpool, Man U, Man City, Villa, Forest and Chelsea combined.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    Selebian said:

    Thanks @Carnyx , @eek , @Chameleon - all interesting and I have learned some things. As noted, I'd have no interest in doing it anyway, even if it did work, but I will pass on this knowledge to my wife.

    @Carnyx - do you really have 4.2L Jag?

    No! But it is the sort of car that doesn't depreciate, or so I gather. But in practice it's usually houses
    eg.

    https://www.co-oplegalservices.co.uk/media-centre/articles-jul-sep-2019/what-is-a-grob-gift-with-reservation-of-benefit/
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    edited June 4

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .

    The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .

    Best way is to point at the consequences of no IHT is that a future Government could treat it as a type of income or capital gain.

    At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...

    As I said before - it looks like a great deal until you think about it for 30 seconds or more at which point you discover removing it opens up a whole set of (very tax collecting) options...
    No. Then the Tories immediately counter with 'Labour's death tax plan laid bare for all to see. They are coming for everything you worked for to provide for your loved ones'
    Labour only need to say - that it's an idea.

    Now the tories can then claim that it may be replaced with income tax / capital gains but someone would need to suggest it and the comeback to that is that that sounds like we've discovered Hunt's true plan..
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    England v Scotland T20 was delayed by rain but getting started now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited June 4


    Scott_xP said:

    IHT is a winner. Nobody cares how rich Richi is...

    @mikeysmith

    STORY

    Rishi Sunak rolls into Manchester carrying £1,460 worth of luxury luggage.

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1798010556416451040

    Would you prefer he carried stuff in a Tesco bag for life?
    To think Scott used to be a big Cameron fanboy. A humble man of the people who is able to buy £25k sheds, but we get all the nonsense of his taking an EasyJet flight and shopping in Morrisons PR stunts.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov voteshares with Farage as Reform Leader earlier this year

    Con 21%
    Labour 42%
    Reform 14%
    LD 10%

    Farage took from the Tories and Labour who were both down 1% the poll found but the LDs rose 1% ironically if Farage returned
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262

    Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
    Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.

    The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.

    Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.

    Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.

    And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.

    If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
    If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
    I agree with the first part of that.

    But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?

    This wing is quite small, electorally, though and to some extent will plump for the main right-wing party alternative anyway.

    If British elections became Reform v Labour I don't think Labour would be in forevermore due to squeamishness about action on immigration.
    I think we all tend to assume that the electorate shares our own views more than it actually does!

    But, again, don't believe me, go look at the yougov tribes polling data.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    DM_Andy said:

    England v Scotland T20 was delayed by rain but getting started now.

    90+ mph banana bending yorker to start....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    Sean_F said:

    Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.

    Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....

    Surprisingly few companies that sport the pride logo display it in their middle Eastern divisions. If one was feeling uncharitable, one might call them hypocrites.
    Or perhaps they are simply following their fiduciary duties and trying to maximize shareholder value?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    eek said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .

    The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .

    Best way is to point at the consequences of no IHT is that a future Government could treat it as a type of income or capital gain.

    At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...

    As I said before - it looks like a great deal until you think about it for 30 seconds or more at which point you discover removing it opens up a whole set of (very tax collecting) options...
    No. Then the Tories immediately counter with 'Labour's death tax plan laid bare for all to see. They are coming for everything you worked for to provide for your loved ones'
    Labour only need to say - that it's an idea.

    Now the tories can then claim that it may be replaced with income tax / capital gains but someone would need to suggest it and the comeback to that is that that sounds like we've discovered Hunt's true plan..
    An idea for whom? Whoever proposes it gets smashed at the next election.
    You might as well say 'a future government might order you to be birched every night before bedtime'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Wars are noomy; plagues are not
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.

    Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?

    This is your regular reminder that Germany paid no less for natural gas than anyone else.

    The Germans are getting hammered because their two largest export industries - capital goods and cars - are both in the toilet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    boulay said:

    tlg86 said:

    Man City's actions today don't exactly scream innocent of all charges.

    Talking of football, after Real Madrid’s win on Saturday, Arsenal and Real have won as many European Cups/Champions leagues as Liverpool, Man U, Man City, Villa, Forest and Chelsea combined.
    Still swells the chest to see Forest in that list...
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Good to see Archer back 👍
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited June 4
    Leon said:

    Wars are noomy; plagues are not

    Eyam? Definite noom there.

    Though it only works 400 years after the event.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 4
    This probably makes Reform/Tory crossover less likely as it should shift YG to results more like the MRP, and YG are closest to actualisation of xover
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,721
    Chameleon said:

    Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.

    Is this a Queen/King thing?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    This probably makes Reform/Tory crossover less likely as it should shift YG to results more like the MRP, and YG are closest to actualisation of xover
    And, probably makes a false 'gap closing' narrative more likely
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660

    German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.

    Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?

    Thought the Chinese no longer needing German industry/technology is part of it. Imagine investing billions in a state, gifting it your hard won IP and watching it sell it to the world.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Sean_F said:

    Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.

    Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....

    Surprisingly few companies that sport the pride logo display it in their middle Eastern divisions. If one was feeling uncharitable, one might call them hypocrites.
    Actually they are being admirably consistent. They just seek profits by virtue signalling their adherence to the prevailing cultural norms whatever they happen ti be in any given location.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Man City's actions today don't exactly scream innocent of all charges.

    What actions?
    Sounds like they are getting their excuses in early:

    https://x.com/Lawton_Times/status/1797998795084423191

    EXCLUSIVE: Man City launch unprecedented legal action against Premier League. Has sparked civil war among clubs with hearing due to start on June 10. City describing PL financial rules as ‘tyranny of the majority’. Full story here on ⁦
    @TimesSport
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited June 4
    rcs1000 said:

    German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.

    Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?

    This is your regular reminder that Germany paid no less for natural gas than anyone else.

    The Germans are getting hammered because their two largest export industries - capital goods and cars - are both in the toilet.
    I thought there was a specific issue with the form of natural gas Germany uses compared to rest of Europe meaning they have been hit extra hard and also they structured both industrial and domestic to utilise it? And actually making stuff is a lot harder hit than providing services when price of oil / gas ramps up.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,988

    Andy_JS said:

    "25 year old woman arrested on suspicion of assault after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage." BBC News.

    How very retro of her.
    Bubble tea is the refreshment du jour.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    eek said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Labour would have to be very careful how they respond if the Tories abolish IHT .

    The best course IMO is to say the country can’t afford this at the moment and accuse them of slashing public services to fund it .

    Best way is to point at the consequences of no IHT is that a future Government could treat it as a type of income or capital gain.

    At which point all of it would be subject to tax at 40/45%...

    As I said before - it looks like a great deal until you think about it for 30 seconds or more at which point you discover removing it opens up a whole set of (very tax collecting) options...
    No. Then the Tories immediately counter with 'Labour's death tax plan laid bare for all to see. They are coming for everything you worked for to provide for your loved ones'
    Labour only need to say - that it's an idea.

    Now the tories can then claim that it may be replaced with income tax / capital gains but someone would need to suggest it and the comeback to that is that that sounds like we've discovered Hunt's true plan..
    An idea for whom? Whoever proposes it gets smashed at the next election.
    You might as well say 'a future government might order you to be birched every night before bedtime'
    Once inheritance tax is removed and replaced straightforward capital gains the extra tax generated will never be lost.

    And anything implemented in year 1 after an election is usually completely forgotten by the time the next election comes round.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    boulay said:

    tlg86 said:

    Man City's actions today don't exactly scream innocent of all charges.

    Talking of football, after Real Madrid’s win on Saturday, Arsenal and Real have won as many European Cups/Champions leagues as Liverpool, Man U, Man City, Villa, Forest and Chelsea combined.
    Still swells the chest to see Forest in that list...
    Once upon a time (around 1990) there was a proposal for an annual competition along the lines of the Supercopa Libertadores for all previous winners of the European Cup to increase the number of games between the big teams. In the end UEFA went for expanding the European Cup into the Champions League instead but in an alternate universe Forest would have permanently qualified for Europe.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    Selebian said:

    Thanks @Carnyx , @eek , @Chameleon - all interesting and I have learned some things. As noted, I'd have no interest in doing it anyway, even if it did work, but I will pass on this knowledge to my wife.

    @Carnyx - do you really have 4.2L Jag?

    BTW I have a relative with an elderly mother. I remember that some financial salesman type invited himself to her mum's U3A group under misleading credentials and terrified the lot about IHT and local councils seizing their houses.

    Her mum needed a lot of reassurance and sitting down with over a cup of tea with clear statements from the council, etc. etc. Which was really upsetting. I wonder if something like that has happened with your parents? Or just that the Tories have taken over the spiv's role?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    DM_Andy said:

    England v Scotland T20 was delayed by rain but getting started now.

    It was raining in the Battle of Britain.

    Now Scotland are reigning in the Battle of Britain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.

    Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....

    Surprisingly few companies that sport the pride logo display it in their middle Eastern divisions. If one was feeling uncharitable, one might call them hypocrites.
    Actually they are being admirably consistent. They just seek profits by virtue signalling their adherence to the prevailing cultural norms whatever they happen ti be in any given location.
    Which is what their shareholders require of them. I would vote to eject any management team that did otherwise.

    Companies are not agents of social change. Their job is to earn returns for their shareholders.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Chameleon said:

    Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.

    Eh? I guess GSTK is the second oldest and FOS the second newest?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    A better use of the klaxon there. Bravo.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    rcs1000 said:

    German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.

    Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?

    This is your regular reminder that Germany paid no less for natural gas than anyone else.

    The Germans are getting hammered because their two largest export industries - capital goods and cars - are both in the toilet.
    I thought there was a specific issue with the form of natural gas Germany uses compared to rest of Europe meaning they have been hit extra hard and also they structured both industrial and domestic to utilise it? And actually making stuff is a lot harder hit than providing services when price of oil / gas ramps up.
    No, it's just CH4. And remember, most (i.e. 70%+) of the gas that comes through Russian pipelines ends up in other countries than Germany.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,579
    edited June 4
    Selebian said:

    Chameleon said:

    Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.

    Is this a Queen/King thing?
    Yes.

    One of my favourite pub quiz questions from a few years ago, when I used to run pub quizzes. “What was the UK national anthem before it was “God Save The Queen”?”
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    A better use of the klaxon there. Bravo.
    Scottish poll at 5 KLAXON too btw 😉
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Leon said:

    THE WHEAT, THE WHEAT

    Either you're Theresa May, or you've discovered the local drug scene ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Wow real bomb damage everywhere
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.

    Eh? I guess GSTK is the second oldest and FOS the second newest?
    @Selebian got it in one - GSTK is the 2nd oldest anthem - however when we changed it last year it became the second most recently changed/adopted anthem.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited June 4
    "Colin Freeman
    What happened to the Evening Standard?
    The paper was once an institution"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-happened-to-the-evening-standard/

    I wonder if that Sean_T bloke ever wrote any articles for them.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    A better use of the klaxon there. Bravo.
    Scottish poll at 5 KLAXON too btw 😉
    Oooh!!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    THE WHEAT, THE WHEAT

    Either you're Theresa May, or you've discovered the local drug scene ?
    It’s a famous quote. Tsk
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.

    Eh? I guess GSTK is the second oldest and FOS the second newest?
    @Selebian got it in one - GSTK is the 2nd oldest anthem - however when we changed it last year it became the second most recently changed/adopted anthem.
    Ah, I see!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    edited June 4
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Chameleon said:

    Fun fact: The UK currently has the second oldest but also the second newest national anthem in the world.

    Is this a Queen/King thing?
    Yes.

    One of my favourite pub quiz questions from a few years ago, when I used to run pub quizzes. “What was the UK national anthem before it was “God Save The Queen”?”
    I presume the answer is "there was none".

    Doh. I'm an idiot. GSTK. Obv.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    Leon said:

    Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv

    You found the local brothel?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Wars are noomy; plagues are not

    Oh do fuck off you horrible ghoul
    lol. Your internal rage is always there isn’t it? I’m like an oil prospector in Kuwait
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, which was well ahead of Bloomberg expectations of a gain of 7,000. The Ifo Institute said in March that Germany will be the worst-performing rich economy in the world for the second year.

    Why are the German's being worst hit? Dependence on cheap Russian oil / gas?

    This is your regular reminder that Germany paid no less for natural gas than anyone else.

    The Germans are getting hammered because their two largest export industries - capital goods and cars - are both in the toilet.
    I thought there was a specific issue with the form of natural gas Germany uses compared to rest of Europe meaning they have been hit extra hard and also they structured both industrial and domestic to utilise it? And actually making stuff is a lot harder hit than providing services when price of oil / gas ramps up.
    No, it's just CH4. And remember, most (i.e. 70%+) of the gas that comes through Russian pipelines ends up in other countries than Germany.
    The FT seems to contradict themselves on this.

    Merkel’s policies left Germany too reliant on Russian gas, adviser admits

    Opposition to fracking Germany’s domestic reserves of unconventional gas and to building import terminals for liquefied natural gas closed off potential alternatives to Russian hydrocarbons, which were in any case much cheaper than supplies from places like Qatar, he said.

    https://www.ft.com/content/aa2afe9f-0b5d-45b7-a647-cc61f6d010cf

    The myth of cheap Russian gas in Europe
    https://www.ft.com/content/837ec142-cf43-4550-9a7a-66ed104dfc24
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.

    Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....

    Doesn't Russia have a very long tradition of homosexuality ?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Andy_JS said:

    "Colin Freeman
    What happened to the Evening Standard?
    The paper was once an institution"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-happened-to-the-evening-standard/

    I wonder if that Sean_T bloke ever wrote any articles for them.

    That's a remarkably astute piece.

    I tend to agree that it was Veronica Wadley who holed it below the waterline. Once a newspaper has departed from its readers' values, you can't get that trust back. You see exactly the same thing with the provincial press right now - the incessant clickbait shrieking has alienated the engaged local citizens who should be their core readership.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,579
    Leon said:

    Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv

    Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.

    Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited June 4
    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Man City's actions today don't exactly scream innocent of all charges.

    What actions?
    Sounds like they are getting their excuses in early:

    https://x.com/Lawton_Times/status/1797998795084423191

    EXCLUSIVE: Man City launch unprecedented legal action against Premier League. Has sparked civil war among clubs with hearing due to start on June 10. City describing PL financial rules as ‘tyranny of the majority’. Full story here on ⁦
    @TimesSport
    Those 4 wins should get an asterisk.

    Away at Crosby Marine in the Northern Premier League next season?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Man City's actions today don't exactly scream innocent of all charges.

    What actions?
    Sounds like they are getting their excuses in early:

    https://x.com/Lawton_Times/status/1797998795084423191

    EXCLUSIVE: Man City launch unprecedented legal action against Premier League. Has sparked civil war among clubs with hearing due to start on June 10. City describing PL financial rules as ‘tyranny of the majority’. Full story here on ⁦
    @TimesSport
    So City have signed John Adams on a free from DC United then?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    "A shock election result in India humbles Narendra Modi
    Instead of strongman rule an uncertain era of coalition government beckons"

    https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/06/04/a-shock-election-result-in-india-humbles-narendra-modi
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    edited June 4
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv

    Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.

    Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
    Let’s see if I can cope. The immediate atmosphere is grim and frightening. And the signs of war are ubiquitous

    I’ve got two articles to write and I might write them really really really quickly
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited June 4
    Andy_JS said:

    "Colin Freeman
    What happened to the Evening Standard?
    The paper was once an institution"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-happened-to-the-evening-standard/

    I wonder if that Sean_T bloke ever wrote any articles for them.

    Seems like George Osborne jumped ship just at the right time.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    Leon said:

    Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv

    Odessa was hit by cluster munitions a few weeks back. You could genuinely die there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    Pradeep Gupta – India’s version of John Curtice – was grilled as to why his Axis My India exit poll predictions were out by 66 seats

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/04/watch-after-messing-up-national-exit-poll-indias-top-pollster-breaks-down-on-live-tv/

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    Chirs Jordan getting the dockside hooker treatment.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    Nigelb said:

    Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.

    Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....

    Doesn't Russia have a very long tradition of homosexuality ?
    What do you call a Russian homosexual?

    Ser-gay!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    rcs1000 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.

    Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....

    Surprisingly few companies that sport the pride logo display it in their middle Eastern divisions. If one was feeling uncharitable, one might call them hypocrites.
    Actually they are being admirably consistent. They just seek profits by virtue signalling their adherence to the prevailing cultural norms whatever they happen ti be in any given location.
    Which is what their shareholders require of them. I would vote to eject any management team that did otherwise.

    Companies are not agents of social change. Their job is to earn returns for their shareholders.
    And that's why we should nationalise them, Comrade!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv

    Odessa was hit by cluster munitions a few weeks back. You could genuinely die there.
    Yes. I know
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Andy_JS said:

    "Colin Freeman
    What happened to the Evening Standard?
    The paper was once an institution"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-happened-to-the-evening-standard/

    I wonder if that Sean_T bloke ever wrote any articles for them.

    Things didn’t improve when Hastings was replaced by Chelsea-born Veronica Wadley, a former debutante and Mail features executive, who turned the paper into what the newsroom nicknamed ‘the Baby Mail’. Out went much of the humour and urbanity. In came lurid ‘exposes’, such as a story revealing that cannabis was being sold openly on the streets of Brixton. For anyone who lived there, as I did, this was akin to being told that the Pope had Catholic leanings, or that bears relieved themselves behind trees.

    Good piece. It's sad to hear of its demise. Still like picking it up after the office and having a read on the Tube. But it's desperately thin these days.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n

    During the election debate?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n

    During the election debate?
    The election debate is from 9pm, shirley?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n

    From recollection, Survation's MRP tends to give much lower Lib Dem seats and higher Labour seats. Including some rather strange outcomes in some seats (essentially almost every Lib Dem target seat sees its support collapse towards Labour under their model). But then they could have changed the modelling.

    It's interesting to see just how hugely the various MRP models vary amongst themselves. Personally, I'm betting on YouGov, but I suppose I would.

    I'm going to guess c. 90-100 Con seats, 470-480 Labour seats, 20-25 LD seats, 25-35 SNP seats.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Andy_JS said:

    "Colin Freeman
    What happened to the Evening Standard?
    The paper was once an institution"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-happened-to-the-evening-standard/

    I wonder if that Sean_T bloke ever wrote any articles for them.

    I think the game was up when they had to start giving away umbrellas to persuade people to buy the paper.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n

    During the election debate?
    The election debate is from 9pm, shirley?
    Oh, I thought it was from 7, for some reason!
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    This isn't doing the Barbados tourist board much good, people don't go to the Caribbean to be rained on.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n

    From recollection, Survation's MRP tends to give much lower Lib Dem seats and higher Labour seats. Including some rather strange outcomes in some seats (essentially almost every Lib Dem target seat sees its support collapse towards Labour under their model). But then they could have changed the modelling.

    It's interesting to see just how hugely the various MRP models vary amongst themselves. Personally, I'm betting on YouGov, but I suppose I would.

    I'm going to guess c. 90-100 Con seats, 470-480 Labour seats, 20-25 LD seats, 25-35 SNP seats.
    I think you SNP seats is about 10-12 too high, the central belt is going to tend Labour...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Redfield Ecosse
    Labour 39% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 29% (-2)
    Conservative 17% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-1)
    Alba Party 1% (–)
    Other 1% (+1)
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    eek said:

    Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n

    From recollection, Survation's MRP tends to give much lower Lib Dem seats and higher Labour seats. Including some rather strange outcomes in some seats (essentially almost every Lib Dem target seat sees its support collapse towards Labour under their model). But then they could have changed the modelling.

    It's interesting to see just how hugely the various MRP models vary amongst themselves. Personally, I'm betting on YouGov, but I suppose I would.

    I'm going to guess c. 90-100 Con seats, 470-480 Labour seats, 20-25 LD seats, 25-35 SNP seats.
    I think you SNP seats is about 10-12 too high, the central belt is going to tend Labour...
    Oh, I agree. I'm guessing at the Survation MRP.
    On March 30th, they had 41 SNP seats (468 Lab, 98 Con, 22 LD, 41 SNP).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Joint-largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014.

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Westminster VI (1-2 June):

    Labour 39% (+1)
    SNP 29% (-2)
    Conservative 17% (+3)
    Lib Dem 8% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-1)
    Alba 1% (–)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 8-9 May


    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1798021898716197309
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,579
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv

    Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.

    Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
    Let’s see if I can cope. The immediate atmosphere is grim and frightening. And the signs of war are ubiquitous

    I’ve got two articles to write and I might write them really really really quickly
    Congratulations on becoming a war reporter, rather than the jolly flint-knapper hanging around on the periphery of the conflict collecting nice stories.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov voteshares with Farage as Reform Leader earlier this year

    Con 21%
    Labour 42%
    Reform 14%
    LD 10%

    Farage took from the Tories and Labour who were both down 1% the poll found but the LDs rose 1% ironically if Farage returned
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262

    Farage might also gain vote share for Reform, by enthusing don't knows/won't votes.
    Indeed: there are a fascinating number of ways this can play out.

    The biggest concern - though - for the Conservative Party is that this ends up splitting their vote in two, which would be disastrous in an FPTP the world.

    Maybe those people buying LibDem seats on 40+ are less crazy than I thought.

    Political parties are coalitions. The Conservative Party used to draw together those who wanted limited change because it protected their financial assets (i.e. capitalists), and those who want to preserve the social order. You can call these Cameroons and Faragists, if you like.

    And, obviously, there's a lot of overlap, but the former group is motivated primarily by greed, while the latter by fear.

    If you split asunder the Right, then neither part is big enough to get elected. Between them they probably get more votes than the old Conservative Party, but that's not much help if each is on 25%, and Labour is on 40%.
    If Reform were to poll close to say, 20%, it would be extremely hard to model what that would mean in terms of seats. It might mean nothing, or it might mean dozens. My suspicion is that if Reform actually overtook the Conservatives in the polls, there'd then be a stampede of Conservative voters towards them.
    I agree with the first part of that.

    But the second? That's a much harder call. What is it that Reform offers the Cameroon wing of the Conservative Party?

    The question is, is there such a wing? There is in parliament but is there amongst the voters?
    Of course there is.

    We know this multiple ways:

    Firstly, your regular reminder that Farage got beaten by a Pro European Conservative when stood against the Speaker. And he lost in Thanet, to the Conservatives, at the height of the UKIP boom and when unhappiness with the EU was at its peak.

    Secondly, the yougov data on "seven tribes" is very informative. Farage has great reach with the Strong Right and Somewheres... But scores very poorly with the Global Capitalists and the Centrists. Those tribes exist, and they're a good portion of the electorate.

    Thirdly, remember it was Cameron who got elected PM with get first majority since Major. Now, sure, Boris did well. But Boris was also facing Corbyn.
    True but I wonder if this time he wins anyway since opposition will split between Labour and the Conservatives
    If Reform started to poll better than the Conservatives would you be considering a Reform vote to stop Labour?
    Not this time, because that would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But, at future elections, yes.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Survation MRP, 30,000 sample at 8 tonight also incoming. More data pr0n

    During the election debate?
    That's at 9?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Redfield Ecosse
    Labour 39% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 29% (-2)
    Conservative 17% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-1)
    Alba Party 1% (–)
    Other 1% (+1)

    On straight swing that's awful for the SNP:

    Lab: 35
    SNP: 9
    Con: 8
    LD: 5
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Not going quietly....

    Hundreds of Labour members have called for the party to give them a say on their General Election candidate after Lloyd Russell-Moyle was removed as Brighton Kemptown MP.

    More than 200 people have signed a petition calling on the party’s National Executive Committee to give Kemp Town residents a say on who should replace Mr Russell-Moyle after he was suspended from the party over serious allegations made about him.

    It comes after the Labour Party announced that former Keir Starmer aide Chris Ward would be taking over the candidacy ahead of July 4.


    https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24365659.lloyd-russell-moyle-hundreds-sign-labour-general-election-petition/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Duolingo has deleted LGBT references in Russia amid pressure from the country’s communications watchdog. The language learning app has reportedly removed what Moscow calls “non-traditional sexual relations”.

    Checks https://twitter.com/duolingo, virtue signalling check.....

    Surprisingly few companies that sport the pride logo display it in their middle Eastern divisions. If one was feeling uncharitable, one might call them hypocrites.
    Or perhaps they are simply following their fiduciary duties and trying to maximize shareholder value?
    It's herd behaviour.

    They don't want to be called out for not doing it, and getting bad publicity. But, they also don't particularly want to overdo it more than the rest either and make themselves a "go woke, go broke" target.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,871
    Andy_JS said:

    "Colin Freeman
    What happened to the Evening Standard?
    The paper was once an institution"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-happened-to-the-evening-standard/

    I wonder if that Sean_T bloke ever wrote any articles for them.

    I don't need the Spectator to tell me the obvious - unless that's what passes for writing at the Speccie these days.

    Covid, Working for Home and mobile phone access across the Underground have done the damage. Lebedev's business model was based on funding via advertising and when the circulation was 800,000 or more with multiple editions through the day and if you wanted something to do on the 31(more like 40) minute journey from Monument to East Ham, the Standard fitted the bill and even more so once it saw off the competition in the mid 2000s.

    The changes with and since Covid have been hammer blows - the advertising has dried up, the circulation is down to 250,000 - an example, they used to deliver to East Ham which you could argue was pointless as most commuters got a copy in London but the locals would go to the station and get a copy or several. Now, the Standard doesn't come to East Ham so unless you can get one in London (West Ham still has them but that's a significant interchange station) you won't see one.

    With Working from Home, there are possibly 10-20% fewer people travelling (especially Mondays and Fridays - perhaps they should have looked at printing on the other three days of the working week only). Finally, we now have 4G and 5G available on lines like the Jubilee so who needs a paper?

    I suspect Metro will launch a "new" evening edition later in the year but they will face the same problems in terms of making it work economically.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Scott_xP said:

    IHT is a winner. Nobody cares how rich Richi is...

    @mikeysmith

    STORY

    Rishi Sunak rolls into Manchester carrying £1,460 worth of luxury luggage.

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1798010556416451040

    How does he win, exactly?

    We all know he's got money. If he turned up with a bag from JDSports or MountainWarehouse he'd be accused of posturing.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Chameleon said:

    Redfield Ecosse
    Labour 39% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 29% (-2)
    Conservative 17% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-1)
    Alba Party 1% (–)
    Other 1% (+1)

    On straight swing that's awful for the SNP:

    Lab: 35
    SNP: 9
    Con: 8
    LD: 5
    It's pretty bleak for them, yeah.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Ok this is a lot scarier than Lviv

    Err yeah, Odessa isn’t Lviv.

    Lviv is Russia’s favourite Ukranian city, Odessa is a strategically-important port city key to Ukraine’s export market, and the key reason for Ukraine’s efforts into the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet.
    Let’s see if I can cope. The immediate atmosphere is grim and frightening. And the signs of war are ubiquitous

    I’ve got two articles to write and I might write them really really really quickly
    Congratulations on becoming a war reporter, rather than the jolly flint-knapper hanging around on the periphery of the conflict collecting nice stories.
    Er, I have done war before. Held at gunpoint by Hezbollah as I was also bombed and shelled by Israel

    But it is always fucking scary
This discussion has been closed.