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Being a convicted felon has consequences – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
Being a convicted felon has consequences – politicalbetting.com

Do you think Donald Trump should or should not end his presidential campaign because of this verdict?Should 49%Should not 37%.@Ipsos/@ABC, 781 adults, 5/31-6/1https://t.co/35yFHwt4jd pic.twitter.com/oFDUpEV44U

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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited June 4
    First - like Biden, I hope!

    Ok Second - like Trump, I hope!!
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    edited June 4
    Third again - which is an impossible place in a Presidential election.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,096

    First - like Biden, I hope!

    Unfortunately not.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,977
    FF43 said:

    First - like Biden, I hope!

    Unfortunately not.
    Stop the steal!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    eek said:

    Third again - which is an impossible place in a Presidential election.

    Faithless electors wave hello.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    I feel like I need more polls, particularly headline VI and swing state, to really start to form an opinion on the likely impact. But the initial indicators feel good for Biden.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited June 4
    FF43 said:

    First - like Biden, I hope!

    Unfortunately not.
    Hopefully not an omen!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199
    eek said:

    Third again - which is an impossible place in a Presidential election.

    You are the RFK Jnr of PB.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    If that polling is reflected in the general election, this is going to be an absolute thumping.

    But I suspect it won't be. The Republicans will find reasons to vote for him anyway - enough to save 15-20 states.

    If Independents break strongly against him, however, he can kiss goodbye to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, possibly Ohio.

    It certainly does make his path to victory more difficult.

    That, of course, has a knock-on effect on his trials in Washington and Florida. If he loses again it's hard to see than keep being stalled unless the Supreme Court really does go mad an rule presidents have absolute immunity.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Am I correct in thinking there are a few late primaries today? Will be interesting if so to see if there is any suggestion in the outcome of whether the Trump conviction has had any effect.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    ToryJim said:

    Am I correct in thinking there are a few late primaries today? Will be interesting if so to see if there is any suggestion in the outcome of whether the Trump conviction has had any effect.

    There are, but I doubt if it will make much difference as Republican registered voters had already priced it in, either way.

    So unless another candidate gets significantly more than 20% of the vote I would say it's noise.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling. It is now averaging less than 1% in the head to head but a bit more in the 5 way.

    He also continues to lead in all the battleground states although the quantity of polling in some battleground states is much lower and these can be historic figures.

    In short, so far, there is no evidence that the numbers who think he should stand down etc are affecting his polling. He is still a strong favourite, especially when you recall his advantage in the Electoral College is such that he can afford to lose by up to 4% in the popular vote and still win.

    These are not the consequences that we were looking for.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    eek said:

    Third again - which is an impossible place in a Presidential election.

    George Wallace - 1968
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    eek said:

    Third again - which is an impossible place in a Presidential election.

    George Wallace - 1968
    Taft in 1912 - I think I'm right in saying he was the only incumbent president to come third?
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,801
    FPT (though it seems reasonable in this thread anyway):

    johnt said:

    I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.

    Most people on here know that because of polls etc . You will be surprised at the level of ignorance there is in the general public about politics .
    I agree. We're the weirdos. A lot of people:

    1. Don't know we're in a GE campaign.
    2. Don't know there are more than two political parties.
    3. Don't know what seat they either where in, or are going to be in.
    4. Don't know the winner of their seat.
    5. Don't know who their MP is.
    6. Don't know the voting system.
    7. Don't know how our government works.

    Excepting the last point, it might not be a majority of people but there are a lot of voting age people who really haven't a clue. Many of them might not vote, but I suspect a lot do (women especially out of a sense of duty). I presume they're completely confused when they turn up and see more than two names on the ballot paper before sticking to what they know and vote either Labour or Conservative.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990

    eek said:

    Third again - which is an impossible place in a Presidential election.

    George Wallace - 1968
    RFK jnr in 2024 is more on point. At the moment he is damaging Biden slightly more than Trump and is polling up to 10%.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,180
    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling. It is now averaging less than 1% in the head to head but a bit more in the 5 way.

    He also continues to lead in all the battleground states although the quantity of polling in some battleground states is much lower and these can be historic figures.

    In short, so far, there is no evidence that the numbers who think he should stand down etc are affecting his polling. He is still a strong favourite, especially when you recall his advantage in the Electoral College is such that he can afford to lose by up to 4% in the popular vote and still win.

    These are not the consequences that we were looking for.

    Do we have any post-conviction polling to speak of at this point? Typically news take a day or two to sink in so you'd need the fieldwork to be pretty recent.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199
    ydoethur said:

    If that polling is reflected in the general election, this is going to be an absolute thumping.

    But I suspect it won't be. The Republicans will find reasons to vote for him anyway - enough to save 15-20 states.

    If Independents break strongly against him, however, he can kiss goodbye to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, possibly Ohio.

    It certainly does make his path to victory more difficult.

    That, of course, has a knock-on effect on his trials in Washington and Florida. If he loses again it's hard to see than keep being stalled unless the Supreme Court really does go mad an rule presidents have absolute immunity.

    They're going to do something nuts in that, I'm fairly sure. Even if they stop short of full immunity.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634

    FPT (though it seems reasonable in this thread anyway):

    johnt said:

    I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.

    Most people on here know that because of polls etc . You will be surprised at the level of ignorance there is in the general public about politics .
    I agree. We're the weirdos. A lot of people:

    1. Don't know we're in a GE campaign.
    2. Don't know there are more than two political parties.
    3. Don't know what seat they either where in, or are going to be in.
    4. Don't know the winner of their seat.
    5. Don't know who their MP is.
    6. Don't know the voting system.
    7. Don't know how our government works.

    Excepting the last point, it might not be a majority of people but there are a lot of voting age people who really haven't a clue. Many of them might not vote, but I suspect a lot do (women especially out of a sense of duty). I presume they're completely confused when they turn up and see more than two names on the ballot paper before sticking to what they know and vote either Labour or Conservative.
    I think a lot of people vote whatever they voted last time too, unless there's been a major event that caused them to change. That hopefully bodes well for Lib Dems in areas where there was local election success in May.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    ydoethur said:

    ToryJim said:

    Am I correct in thinking there are a few late primaries today? Will be interesting if so to see if there is any suggestion in the outcome of whether the Trump conviction has had any effect.

    There are, but I doubt if it will make much difference as Republican registered voters had already priced it in, either way.

    So unless another candidate gets significantly more than 20% of the vote I would say it's noise.
    There has been a significant number of Republican voters opting for withdrawn candidate Haley. One presumes that that can be used as a baseline. If there are significantly fewer voters supporting her rather than Trump, that probably means a rally to the Orange menace. The reverse probably indicates that he is in a spot of bother. Unless I’m over simplifying.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited June 4

    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling. It is now averaging less than 1% in the head to head but a bit more in the 5 way.

    He also continues to lead in all the battleground states although the quantity of polling in some battleground states is much lower and these can be historic figures.

    In short, so far, there is no evidence that the numbers who think he should stand down etc are affecting his polling. He is still a strong favourite, especially when you recall his advantage in the Electoral College is such that he can afford to lose by up to 4% in the popular vote and still win.

    These are not the consequences that we were looking for.

    Do we have any post-conviction polling to speak of at this point? Typically news take a day or two to sink in so you'd need the fieldwork to be pretty recent.
    One poll that took place over the verdict last week, said that the result didn’t have a material effect on responses. Trump 12pts up among registered independents, and overall it’s 41-41.
    https://issuesinsights.com/2024/06/03/despite-court-guilty-verdict-trump-gains-on-biden-in-court-of-voter-opinion-ii-tipp-poll/

    It will be interesting to see what polling looks like next weekend, these things usually take a few days to filter through.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited June 4
    ToryJim said:

    ydoethur said:

    ToryJim said:

    Am I correct in thinking there are a few late primaries today? Will be interesting if so to see if there is any suggestion in the outcome of whether the Trump conviction has had any effect.

    There are, but I doubt if it will make much difference as Republican registered voters had already priced it in, either way.

    So unless another candidate gets significantly more than 20% of the vote I would say it's noise.
    There has been a significant number of Republican voters opting for withdrawn candidate Haley. One presumes that that can be used as a baseline. If there are significantly fewer voters supporting her rather than Trump, that probably means a rally to the Orange menace. The reverse probably indicates that he is in a spot of bother. Unless I’m over simplifying.
    That is the baseline I was using...since May 10th she's scored 16% Penn, 21% Indiana and Maryland, 18% Nebraska (plus a couple under 10%).

    So if she significantly outdoes those (or a write in does) I agree with you, he's in trouble. New Jersey might be fertile territory for her anyway and surely Trump will waltz Montana and South Dakota, but New Mexico could be one to watch.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,180
    ydoethur said:

    If that polling is reflected in the general election, this is going to be an absolute thumping.

    But I suspect it won't be. The Republicans will find reasons to vote for him anyway - enough to save 15-20 states.

    If Independents break strongly against him, however, he can kiss goodbye to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, possibly Ohio.

    It certainly does make his path to victory more difficult.

    That, of course, has a knock-on effect on his trials in Washington and Florida. If he loses again it's hard to see than keep being stalled unless the Supreme Court really does go mad an rule presidents have absolute immunity.

    The current state of the stalling is that SCOTUS are sitting on the DC and FL cases and can continue to sit on them for as long as they like. I don't think they need to rule anything crazy, they can just spend an unlimited amount of time considering the finer points of the judgement and then discussing which font would be appropriate and so forth.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,049
    The conviction and charge will anger a lot of his base as a NY Dem set-up, which partly it is because that's how partisan the American judicial system is, but some independents will conclude he still did it and has been charged accordingly, and baulk at a felon.

    I'd say it tips the scales just enough for Biden to clinch it, but boy oh boy will they be unhappy.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1797891125501653117

    Across the MRPs, prominent prediction models and the median of regional poll projections over the last week, the 403 seats with the same implied result across the board. 342 are for Labour, just 37 unanimously Conservative. Not a prediction, just what the models agree upon.

    Click the link for the map I'm not going to post it here.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    Shows Trump still has his supporters clearly but 37% is not enough for him to win the US Presidency again, even if it is enough for him to maintain his control of the GOP still for the foreseeable future. Independents though who want him to now end his campaign after his felony conviction likely vote for Biden. They could have voted for Haley who did have the appeal to the majority of Americans needed to beat Biden but Republicans rejected her.

    As Trump sees his chances of the White House fading, could a cynic suggest the reason Farage has returned to the UK and decided to stand for Clacton is he sees his chances of a job in the Trump administration fading too?
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,390
    Pro_Rata said:

    This is the worst, most corrupt thread header in history.

    FAKE NEWS. IF THIS WAS TRULY FROM A GREAT PRESIDENT PROBABLY THE GREATEST MANY SAY!!! IT WOULD USE CAPS LOCK AND NONE OF YOUR LIBERAL PUNCTUATION
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332
    edited June 4
    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling.

    Claim fact checked


  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238
    I can't see that the conviction changed anything. No one could have doubted he gave Stormy money to keep her gob shut or that he tried to hide the payments for obvious reasons.

    If it changed what anyone thought about Trump's character or fitness for office they haven't been concentrating.

    Americans are facing the same unedifying choice they were before the trial.
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 987
    ToryJim said:

    ydoethur said:

    ToryJim said:

    Am I correct in thinking there are a few late primaries today? Will be interesting if so to see if there is any suggestion in the outcome of whether the Trump conviction has had any effect.

    There are, but I doubt if it will make much difference as Republican registered voters had already priced it in, either way.

    So unless another candidate gets significantly more than 20% of the vote I would say it's noise.
    There has been a significant number of Republican voters opting for withdrawn candidate Haley. One presumes that that can be used as a baseline. If there are significantly fewer voters supporting her rather than Trump, that probably means a rally to the Orange menace. The reverse probably indicates that he is in a spot of bother. Unless I’m over simplifying.
    The question with those Haley voters is how many are "I'm a committed republican and will vote R in the general but strongly want to signal to the party that there is a base of non-Trumpy voters out there still" versus "I feel so strongly I will not vote or vote Biden in the general". (Plus depending on the state rules about primaries, potentially some independent or D leaning voters in the R primary because the D one was a foregone conclusion, AIUI.)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    edited June 4
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling. It is now averaging less than 1% in the head to head but a bit more in the 5 way.

    He also continues to lead in all the battleground states although the quantity of polling in some battleground states is much lower and these can be historic figures.

    In short, so far, there is no evidence that the numbers who think he should stand down etc are affecting his polling. He is still a strong favourite, especially when you recall his advantage in the Electoral College is such that he can afford to lose by up to 4% in the popular vote and still win.

    These are not the consequences that we were looking for.

    Do we have any post-conviction polling to speak of at this point? Typically news take a day or two to sink in so you'd need the fieldwork to be pretty recent.
    One poll that took place over the verdict last week, said that the result didn’t have a material effect on responses. Trump 12pts up among registered independents, and overall it’s 41-41.
    https://issuesinsights.com/2024/06/03/despite-court-guilty-verdict-trump-gains-on-biden-in-court-of-voter-opinion-ii-tipp-poll/

    It will be interesting to see what polling looks like next weekend, these things usually take a few days to filter through.
    It still looks close.

    Since the verdict Tipp has it Biden 41% Trump 41%, Ipsos Biden 39% Trump 37% and Kennedy 10% and Morning Consult Biden 43% Trump 44%.

    However Trump had a clear lead in most polls before the verdict so that is still overall a swing to Biden
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Lots of voters though still undecided clearly as neither candidate is over 45% let alone over 50% and Kennedy now polling in double digits. The debates and conventions will also be key.

    Even I & I/Tipp still has Trump down with Independents from 33% to 31%, just more seem to be unsure than pro Biden
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,317
    edited June 4
    There have been four polls, post conviction.

    Two show Biden ahead by 1% and 2%, one shows Trump ahead by 1%, and one gives a tie.

    That suggests only a marginal shift. And, the Electoral College favours Trump.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling.

    Claim fact checked


    With an image showing… Trump leading by a small margin?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332
    biggles said:

    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling.

    Claim fact checked


    With an image showing… Trump leading by a small margin?
    In one poll but not in the other two.

    Blimey, is it that difficult to explain?
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238
    There must be a possibility one or both expire before the vote. Anyone know what happens in that eventuality?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,237
    Does the poll have party splits? 49% sounds like most democrats and few republicans
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    Roger said:

    There must be a possibility one or both expire before the vote. Anyone know what happens in that eventuality?

    Depends whether they go before or after the conventions.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    edited June 4
    Roger said:

    There must be a possibility one or both expire before the vote. Anyone know what happens in that eventuality?

    Once the collective hangover wares off its Haley v Harris.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    edited June 4
    ToryJim said:

    ydoethur said:

    ToryJim said:

    Am I correct in thinking there are a few late primaries today? Will be interesting if so to see if there is any suggestion in the outcome of whether the Trump conviction has had any effect.

    There are, but I doubt if it will make much difference as Republican registered voters had already priced it in, either way.

    So unless another candidate gets significantly more than 20% of the vote I would say it's noise.
    There has been a significant number of Republican voters opting for withdrawn candidate Haley. One presumes that that can be used as a baseline. If there are significantly fewer voters supporting her rather than Trump, that probably means a rally to the Orange menace. The reverse probably indicates that he is in a spot of bother. Unless I’m over simplifying.
    The national polls though don’t reflect that . So most of those who voted Haley will still vote for Trump in November . It’s a sad indictment on the USA that a felony conviction is met with a shrug by the vast majority of GOP supporters .

    Thankfully the UK isn’t as polarized . For that reason Farage can do one , I hope Reform crash and burn even if that means Labour get a much smaller majority.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,979
    TimS said:

    FPT (though it seems reasonable in this thread anyway):

    johnt said:

    I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.

    Most people on here know that because of polls etc . You will be surprised at the level of ignorance there is in the general public about politics .
    I agree. We're the weirdos. A lot of people:

    1. Don't know we're in a GE campaign.
    2. Don't know there are more than two political parties.
    3. Don't know what seat they either where in, or are going to be in.
    4. Don't know the winner of their seat.
    5. Don't know who their MP is.
    6. Don't know the voting system.
    7. Don't know how our government works.

    Excepting the last point, it might not be a majority of people but there are a lot of voting age people who really haven't a clue. Many of them might not vote, but I suspect a lot do (women especially out of a sense of duty). I presume they're completely confused when they turn up and see more than two names on the ballot paper before sticking to what they know and vote either Labour or Conservative.
    I think a lot of people vote whatever they voted last time too, unless there's been a major event that caused them to change. That hopefully bodes well for Lib Dems in areas where there was local election success in May.
    The flaw with your last point is that the turn out for local elections is much lower than for a GE. The "just vote like I did last time" crowd will split disproportionately to the group that only vote in GEs, and their concept of "how I voted last time" will be 2019 not 2024.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    eristdoof said:

    TimS said:

    FPT (though it seems reasonable in this thread anyway):

    johnt said:

    I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.

    Most people on here know that because of polls etc . You will be surprised at the level of ignorance there is in the general public about politics .
    I agree. We're the weirdos. A lot of people:

    1. Don't know we're in a GE campaign.
    2. Don't know there are more than two political parties.
    3. Don't know what seat they either where in, or are going to be in.
    4. Don't know the winner of their seat.
    5. Don't know who their MP is.
    6. Don't know the voting system.
    7. Don't know how our government works.

    Excepting the last point, it might not be a majority of people but there are a lot of voting age people who really haven't a clue. Many of them might not vote, but I suspect a lot do (women especially out of a sense of duty). I presume they're completely confused when they turn up and see more than two names on the ballot paper before sticking to what they know and vote either Labour or Conservative.
    I think a lot of people vote whatever they voted last time too, unless there's been a major event that caused them to change. That hopefully bodes well for Lib Dems in areas where there was local election success in May.
    The flaw with your last point is that the turn out for local elections is much lower than for a GE. The "just vote like I did last time" crowd will split disproportionately to the group that only vote in GEs, and their concept of "how I voted last time" will be 2019 not 2024.
    And their memory of how they voted in 2019 may be flawed by the passage of time..
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    MundoMundo Posts: 35
    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238

    Roger said:

    There must be a possibility one or both expire before the vote. Anyone know what happens in that eventuality?

    Depends whether they go before or after the conventions.
    Any actuaries in the house?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    edited June 4
    Someone posted earlier that Reform / Brexit votes were equally damaging to Labour / Tories. That wasn't the case in 2019 where people like Ed Milburn and Yvette Cooper are only in Parliament because the Brexit took significantly more votes from the Tories than the Tory party's majority over Labour. Had Farage implemented a full pact with Bozo Labour would be starting from a position 30-40 seats fewer and Bozo would have had a majority of 130-160 rather than 80...

    This is why Farage is so dangerous - there are now a whole set of seats where a rejuventated Reform party will take enough votes from the Tory party that Labour will win the seat.

    And worse for the Tory party is that given how bad their current polling is only Nostradamus could tell them where they need to focus their campaigning because no one knows if they are fighting to keep 50 seats or fighting to keep seats 160-200.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,686
    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    There must be a possibility one or both expire before the vote. Anyone know what happens in that eventuality?

    Once the collective hangover wares off its Haley v Harris.
    Ha-Ha in other words.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    Happy Birthday, congratulations and have a great day! 🎂
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    eek said:

    Someone posted earlier that Reform / Brexit votes were equally damaging to Labour / Tories. That wasn't the case in 2019 where people like Ed Milburn and Yvette Cooper are only in Parliament because the Brexit took significantly more votes from the Tories than the Tory party's majority over Labour. Had Farage implemented a full pact with Bozo Labour would be starting from a position 30-40 seats fewer and Bozo would have had a majority of 130-160 rather than 80...

    Yes, albeit in 2015 UKIP arguably took more from Labour than the Cameron Tories in some seats.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Mundo said:

    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.

    It’s Alien vs Predator meets Groundhog Day.

    How there can be around 200 million eligible candidates, and yet the American people end up with Hobson’s choice between the same two idiots again?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,216
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling.

    Claim fact checked


    hE iS bEhInD.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Someone posted earlier that Reform / Brexit votes were equally damaging to Labour / Tories. That wasn't the case in 2019 where people like Ed Milburn and Yvette Cooper are only in Parliament because the Brexit took significantly more votes from the Tories than the Tory party's majority over Labour. Had Farage implemented a full pact with Bozo Labour would be starting from a position 30-40 seats fewer and Bozo would have had a majority of 130-160 rather than 80...

    Yes, albeit in 2015 UKIP arguably took more from Labour than the Cameron Tories in some seats.

    That was 2015 - this time round the Labour vote is very much Remain, those 2015 leave votes are probably UKIP / Brexit / Reforms core vote, i.e. the ones who would never vote Tory.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country

    Happy birthday!
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    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    Mundo said:

    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.

    The US is very much a place of haves and have nots - those have nots seem to trend Trump at the moment. And the last 4 years haven't been good for a lot of people with inflation being very obvious to them.

    I suspect if it wasn't Trump on the Republican ballot, the Republicans would be coasting into the White House..
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    edited June 4
    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    There must be a possibility one or both expire before the vote. Anyone know what happens in that eventuality?

    Once the collective hangover wares off its Haley v Harris.
    No, I doubt it. More like DeSantis v Harris if either died.

    If Biden is re elected and Kennedy gets the 10% or so now projected I suspect he makes Joe Kennedy III, his NI envoy, Secretary of State (Blinkin will step down as convention says SofS only does one term). Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy's grandson would then be in contention for 2028 and a better candidate than Harris.

    If Trump loses Haley will certainly try again, albeit DeSantis is probably more likely as the GOP pick.

    If Trump wins then his VP would of course be likely GOP nominee and Harris would not be an option having been on the defeated Democrat ticket this year
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238
    OT. Posted by NigelB yesterday. Something to uplift us all. My favourite moment of the campaign so far

    https://x.com/DUPleader/status/1797662088627994889/
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,686
    Farooq said:

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country

    Happy birthday!
    And personal care as one hurtles towards decrepitude and oblivion. Hooray!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    HB, RB!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    edited June 4
    Sean_F said:

    There have been four polls, post conviction.

    Two show Biden ahead by 1% and 2%, one shows Trump ahead by 1%, and one gives a tie.

    That suggests only a marginal shift. And, the Electoral College favours Trump.

    Does it though now? In 2016 it did but in 2020 Biden won 56% of the Electoral College but only 51% of the popular vote.

    Hillary's vote was huge on the coasts but poor in Middle America, Biden's vote much more efficient and higher in the rustbelt swing states
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,890
    Heathener said:

    biggles said:

    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling.

    Claim fact checked


    With an image showing… Trump leading by a small margin?
    In one poll but not in the other two.

    Blimey, is it that difficult to explain?
    Most recent poll though
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling.

    Claim fact checked


    That is your ONE image of the day. Don't post any more and get us all banned from posting images altogether

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    Mundo said:

    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.

    I'm not sure it does show what you say. I think shows how utterly divided America is. Each side is convinced the other will destroy the country completely.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    edited June 4
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    There must be a possibility one or both expire before the vote. Anyone know what happens in that eventuality?

    Depends whether they go before or after the conventions.
    Any actuaries in the house?
    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

    Both pretty unlikely to die. Less than 1% chance. Trump has a worse diet, but has never drunk or smoked and will have awesome healthcare.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    eek said:

    https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1797891125501653117

    Across the MRPs, prominent prediction models and the median of regional poll projections over the last week, the 403 seats with the same implied result across the board. 342 are for Labour, just 37 unanimously Conservative. Not a prediction, just what the models agree upon.

    Click the link for the map I'm not going to post it here.

    Yougov MRP though has the Tories on 140 seats still and Yougov MRP slightly underestimated the Conservative seat total in 2019
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,317
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    There have been four polls, post conviction.

    Two show Biden ahead by 1% and 2%, one shows Trump ahead by 1%, and one gives a tie.

    That suggests only a marginal shift. And, the Electoral College favours Trump.

    Does it though now? In 2016 it did but in 2020 Biden won 56% of the Electoral College but only 51% of the popular vote.

    Hillary's vote was huge on the coasts but poor in Middle America, Biden's vote much more efficient and higher in the rustbelt swing states
    Trump was 4% behind. Had he been 2% behind, he’d have won Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238
    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    There must be a possibility one or both expire before the vote. Anyone know what happens in that eventuality?

    Depends whether they go before or after the conventions.
    Any actuaries in the house?
    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

    Both pretty unlikely to die. Less than 1% chance. Trump has a worse diet, but has never drunk or smoked and will have awesome healthcare.
    I was thinking more of a serious diagnosis
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,781
    eristdoof said:

    TimS said:

    FPT (though it seems reasonable in this thread anyway):

    johnt said:

    I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.

    Most people on here know that because of polls etc . You will be surprised at the level of ignorance there is in the general public about politics .
    I agree. We're the weirdos. A lot of people:

    1. Don't know we're in a GE campaign.
    2. Don't know there are more than two political parties.
    3. Don't know what seat they either where in, or are going to be in.
    4. Don't know the winner of their seat.
    5. Don't know who their MP is.
    6. Don't know the voting system.
    7. Don't know how our government works.

    Excepting the last point, it might not be a majority of people but there are a lot of voting age people who really haven't a clue. Many of them might not vote, but I suspect a lot do (women especially out of a sense of duty). I presume they're completely confused when they turn up and see more than two names on the ballot paper before sticking to what they know and vote either Labour or Conservative.
    I think a lot of people vote whatever they voted last time too, unless there's been a major event that caused them to change. That hopefully bodes well for Lib Dems in areas where there was local election success in May.
    The flaw with your last point is that the turn out for local elections is much lower than for a GE. The "just vote like I did last time" crowd will split disproportionately to the group that only vote in GEs, and their concept of "how I voted last time" will be 2019 not 2024.
    But perhaps that is less the case where the Lib Dems have carried on campaigning steadily since the last set of local elections. People will remember that.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,890
    eek said:

    eristdoof said:

    TimS said:

    FPT (though it seems reasonable in this thread anyway):

    johnt said:

    I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.

    Most people on here know that because of polls etc . You will be surprised at the level of ignorance there is in the general public about politics .
    I agree. We're the weirdos. A lot of people:

    1. Don't know we're in a GE campaign.
    2. Don't know there are more than two political parties.
    3. Don't know what seat they either where in, or are going to be in.
    4. Don't know the winner of their seat.
    5. Don't know who their MP is.
    6. Don't know the voting system.
    7. Don't know how our government works.

    Excepting the last point, it might not be a majority of people but there are a lot of voting age people who really haven't a clue. Many of them might not vote, but I suspect a lot do (women especially out of a sense of duty). I presume they're completely confused when they turn up and see more than two names on the ballot paper before sticking to what they know and vote either Labour or Conservative.
    I think a lot of people vote whatever they voted last time too, unless there's been a major event that caused them to change. That hopefully bodes well for Lib Dems in areas where there was local election success in May.
    The flaw with your last point is that the turn out for local elections is much lower than for a GE. The "just vote like I did last time" crowd will split disproportionately to the group that only vote in GEs, and their concept of "how I voted last time" will be 2019 not 2024.
    And their memory of how they voted in 2019 may be flawed by the passage of time..
    Is that a real thing? Do people genuinely forget how they voted in the last election, or do they 'choose' to forget?
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,072
    Roger said:

    OT. Posted by NigelB yesterday. Something to uplift us all. My favourite moment of the campaign so far

    https://x.com/DUPleader/status/1797662088627994889/

    Ah, if Nige had listened to Rubberbandits' seminal "Up Da Ra", he wouldn't have made that mistake.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGaeL22Pkps

    (Their "Horse Outside" is just as good.)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290

    Farooq said:

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country

    Happy birthday!
    And personal care as one hurtles towards decrepitude and oblivion. Hooray!
    Free social care in Scotland just feels like some mythical nirvana to those of us in england who have had to navigate the mess here for our families.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,979

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    Well with way more than 22 regular posters on PB I'm not surprised that the Birthday Paradox has been hit.
    I'm slightly younger with my 21st coinciding with the Tiananman Square Massacre.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,890
    Farooq said:

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country

    Happy birthday!
    I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    edited June 4
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    There have been four polls, post conviction.

    Two show Biden ahead by 1% and 2%, one shows Trump ahead by 1%, and one gives a tie.

    That suggests only a marginal shift. And, the Electoral College favours Trump.

    Does it though now? In 2016 it did but in 2020 Biden won 56% of the Electoral College but only 51% of the popular vote.

    Hillary's vote was huge on the coasts but poor in Middle America, Biden's vote much more efficient and higher in the rustbelt swing states
    Trump was 4% behind. Had he been 2% behind, he’d have won Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
    Biden's margin was 3-4% in Michigan in 2020, so would have won it even if only 2% ahead nationally. Biden was 2% ahead in Pennsylvania in 2020 so if 2% ahead nationally Pennsylvania would have been tied.

    Though yes he would likely have needed one of Wisconsin, Arizona or Georgia too
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,096
    Mundo said:

    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.

    They are not. It's this false equivalence that got America into the mess in the first place.

    Maybe if Biden was up against a hypothetical dynamic, honest and competent alternative, the hypothetical alternative should win.

    But he's not. He's up against Trump. Biden is the right guy and Trump is the wrong guy. Always has been. Pretending otherwise just serves Trump.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    Happy Rottenborough day!
    So was thinking about the second or rather eigth coming of the spiv messiah and its impact. From a betting perspective, particularly seats totals, the next 3 days are a key watch. Can Reform find the 130 or so candidates left to fill a GB slate? If not, how many of the unfilled are Tory seats with, let's say, 15-20% leads that may well stay blue with no Reform opposition? Is he going to ram paper only candidates in?
    It might well be a factor in likely seat bands. DYOR
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    eek said:

    Mundo said:

    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.

    The US is very much a place of haves and have nots - those have nots seem to trend Trump at the moment. And the last 4 years haven't been good for a lot of people with inflation being very obvious to them.

    I suspect if it wasn't Trump on the Republican ballot, the Republicans would be coasting into the White House..
    This is what is so annoying of the many annoying things about Trump. The USA - and the West - desperately needs a capable, clever, charismatic Republican president to rull back the Woke and unite us all in the coming struggle against ChiRussia. Instead the GOP and America offers us this warmed-over lunatic villain, fighting a Democrat who is actually a revived cadaver: AGAIN

    The POTUS elex are the Decline of the West, encapsulated
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,317
    edited June 4
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Mundo said:

    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.

    The US is very much a place of haves and have nots - those have nots seem to trend Trump at the moment. And the last 4 years haven't been good for a lot of people with inflation being very obvious to them.

    I suspect if it wasn't Trump on the Republican ballot, the Republicans would be coasting into the White House..
    This is what is so annoying of the many annoying things about Trump. The USA - and the West - desperately needs a capable, clever, charismatic Republican president to rull back the Woke and unite us all in the coming struggle against ChiRussia. Instead the GOP and America offers us this warmed-over lunatic villain, fighting a Democrat who is actually a revived cadaver: AGAIN

    The POTUS elex are the Decline of the West, encapsulated
    That's the problem generally across the West.

    The boring centrists, and the angry populists are just selling different versions of snake oil.

    But Biden is certainly preferable to Trump.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    https://x.com/DeanMThomson/status/1797902229602803970?s=19
    Draws fairly evenly as a % of their vote from Lab and Tory, as per other polling. My point yesterday was the core may prove harder to crack than the floaters /any change will do.
    Awaiting polling with interest.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    eek said:

    eristdoof said:

    TimS said:

    FPT (though it seems reasonable in this thread anyway):

    johnt said:

    I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.

    Most people on here know that because of polls etc . You will be surprised at the level of ignorance there is in the general public about politics .
    I agree. We're the weirdos. A lot of people:

    1. Don't know we're in a GE campaign.
    2. Don't know there are more than two political parties.
    3. Don't know what seat they either where in, or are going to be in.
    4. Don't know the winner of their seat.
    5. Don't know who their MP is.
    6. Don't know the voting system.
    7. Don't know how our government works.

    Excepting the last point, it might not be a majority of people but there are a lot of voting age people who really haven't a clue. Many of them might not vote, but I suspect a lot do (women especially out of a sense of duty). I presume they're completely confused when they turn up and see more than two names on the ballot paper before sticking to what they know and vote either Labour or Conservative.
    I think a lot of people vote whatever they voted last time too, unless there's been a major event that caused them to change. That hopefully bodes well for Lib Dems in areas where there was local election success in May.
    The flaw with your last point is that the turn out for local elections is much lower than for a GE. The "just vote like I did last time" crowd will split disproportionately to the group that only vote in GEs, and their concept of "how I voted last time" will be 2019 not 2024.
    And their memory of how they voted in 2019 may be flawed by the passage of time..
    Is that a real thing? Do people genuinely forget how they voted in the last election, or do they 'choose' to forget?
    Is there not a psychological phenomenon whereby people are more likely to say they voted for the winner, than was actually the case?

    I’m reminded of the story of cricketer Ian Botham, who says he’s met many times more people who have told him they were at Headingly in 1981, when England beat Australia in an Ashes Test, than the small ground could possibly have held at the time.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,315
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite this polling Trump continues to lead by a small margin in the polling.

    Claim fact checked


    Never mind the polling, what about the betting?


    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1797891125501653117

    Across the MRPs, prominent prediction models and the median of regional poll projections over the last week, the 403 seats with the same implied result across the board. 342 are for Labour, just 37 unanimously Conservative. Not a prediction, just what the models agree upon.

    Click the link for the map I'm not going to post it here.

    Yougov MRP though has the Tories on 140 seats still and Yougov MRP slightly underestimated the Conservative seat total in 2019
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide
    Oddly enough the Electoral Calculus MRP from about a month before the 2019 election got the Conservative and Labour seat numbers spot on.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,686

    Farooq said:

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country

    Happy birthday!
    And personal care as one hurtles towards decrepitude and oblivion. Hooray!
    Free social care in Scotland just feels like some mythical nirvana to those of us in england who have had to navigate the mess here for our families.
    Yep, sorry to joke about it. Having direct experience of organising it for a family member it’s not perfect by any means in Scotland but certainly massively better than not having it.

    Ed Davey taking a break from his outdoor activities holiday was on R4 this morning highlighting fpc as an LD manifesto commitment. Took a massive effort of will for him and Nick Robinson to refer to it already existing in Scotland.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Mundo said:

    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.

    The US is very much a place of haves and have nots - those have nots seem to trend Trump at the moment. And the last 4 years haven't been good for a lot of people with inflation being very obvious to them.

    I suspect if it wasn't Trump on the Republican ballot, the Republicans would be coasting into the White House..
    This is what is so annoying of the many annoying things about Trump. The USA - and the West - desperately needs a capable, clever, charismatic Republican president to rull back the Woke and unite us all in the coming struggle against ChiRussia. Instead the GOP and America offers us this warmed-over lunatic villain, fighting a Democrat who is actually a revived cadaver: AGAIN

    The POTUS elex are the Decline of the West, encapsulated
    Zelensky for POTUS!
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863

    https://x.com/DeanMThomson/status/1797902229602803970?s=19
    Draws fairly evenly as a % of their vote from Lab and Tory, as per other polling. My point yesterday was the core may prove harder to crack than the floaters /any change will do.
    Awaiting polling with interest.

    But that's Farage - other candidates won't have anything like the same voter profile.

  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670
    Mundo said:

    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.

    I don’t think it does. I think it shows how there is a section of the US media that will tell people Biden is that awful and Trump is great.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,123
    On Farage, it would be interesting to hear him interrogated about Trump. He seems to be a supporter. Politics in UK and USA are different. In the UK Trump's convictions (plus 6 Jan + election interference) would be the end of a career in serious politics. In the USA clearly they are not.

    Farage, when interviewed about UK politics obeys the rules of UK rhetoric and its primitive but significant laws of cause and effect, and regard, though minimal, for fact and so on. Within those rules it isn't possible to defend Trump, and no-one in serious UK politics does.

    How would Farage go about it?
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    edited June 4
    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    There must be a possibility one or both expire before the vote. Anyone know what happens in that eventuality?

    Depends whether they go before or after the conventions.
    Any actuaries in the house?
    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

    Both pretty unlikely to die. Less than 1% chance. Trump has a worse diet, but has never drunk or smoked and will have awesome healthcare.
    I was thinking more of a serious diagnosis
    Erm, you asked for actuarial tables and I gave them to you. Absent their medical records, that’s all you get.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    There's a row going on down in Slough etc.
    Might be a rare swing to Tories seat, but they aren't taking it of course!
    Tan Dhesi not a popular MP with a goodly portion of the Labour group, 7 of them quitting the party over him, the Faiza Sheehan and other issues to go indy and leave the Tories by far largest party on the council.
    Slough is weird, man
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669

    Farooq said:

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country

    Happy birthday!
    And personal care as one hurtles towards decrepitude and oblivion. Hooray!
    Free social care in Scotland just feels like some mythical nirvana to those of us in england who have had to navigate the mess here for our families.
    Yep, sorry to joke about it. Having direct experience of organising it for a family member it’s not perfect by any means in Scotland but certainly massively better than not having it.

    Ed Davey taking a break from his outdoor activities holiday was on R4 this morning highlighting fpc as an LD manifesto commitment. Took a massive effort of will for him and Nick Robinson to refer to it already existing in Scotland.
    This is where devolution can benefit everyone in the UK. I think it's in Scotland's interest that areas like Greater Manchester, Northumbria or whatever get some autonomy so they can test out UBI, free public transport, massive tax cuts, XL Bully bans and so on, and we can copy them if it works.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463

    There's a row going on down in Slough etc.
    Might be a rare swing to Tories seat, but they aren't taking it of course!
    Tan Dhesi not a popular MP with a goodly portion of the Labour group, 7 of them quitting the party over him, the Faiza Sheehan and other issues to go indy and leave the Tories by far largest party on the council.
    Slough is weird, man

    Putting the Berks in Berkshire.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670

    Farooq said:

    I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.

    Starting with free prescriptions apparently!

    Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country

    Happy birthday!
    I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
    95% in England: https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/free-nhs-prescriptions-eligibility-for-benefit-claimants/#:~:text=In its latest analysis for,out of 1.17mn items).
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    edited June 4
    eek said:

    https://x.com/DeanMThomson/status/1797902229602803970?s=19
    Draws fairly evenly as a % of their vote from Lab and Tory, as per other polling. My point yesterday was the core may prove harder to crack than the floaters /any change will do.
    Awaiting polling with interest.

    But that's Farage - other candidates won't have anything like the same voter profile.

    No, but in general terms, if Reform take votes with Farage as messiah/leader, where will they come from? It seems to be assumed the Tories, but they are already at the nutty core.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    A really weird rumour on TwiX. I would not repeat it but the guy appears to have *some* credibility. Maybe

    “Al-akhbar says the brits told the Lebanese the war will be mid-June. The brits are correct. The decision of the war has been taken already. If you live in the UK, I advise you to stock up on essentials as per government advise. We will definitely experience shortages here. Buy canned food and water. Buy some crypto too just in case. Also, I advise you not to travel to the region unless you have to. Reach out for specific advice.”

    https://x.com/menaunleashed/status/1797897975756206144?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    Morning all :)

    I presume Farage's volte face yesterday was to enable him to have the national platform in the 7-way leaders debate later this month. I suspect if that debate hadn't been offered, he would have stayed out.

    He gets a national platform though the fact neither Sunak nor Starmer will be debating the minor party leaders does devalue it a shade. Farage will obviously seek to dominate that debate and hope to confirm Reform in third place - that's far from obvious looking at some of the recent polls and given the inefficiency of the Reform vote (Farage is a fan of PR, who'd have thunk it?) 12% for Reform gets a lot less in terms of Parliamentary seats than 12% for the LDs.

    Will he use the debate to make a bombshell "final offer" to the Conservatives? Seems implausible but the offer he could make might be for after the election. Pick a leader with whom I can "do business" (so to speak) and a merged party might be on the cards.

    The alternative is he will rant in splendid isolation castigating everyone and everything with a large dollop of "I was right all along".He has sparkled in one on one debates but with six other party leaders he won't have the time to get going I suspect.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Mundo said:

    The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.

    I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.

    The US is very much a place of haves and have nots - those have nots seem to trend Trump at the moment. And the last 4 years haven't been good for a lot of people with inflation being very obvious to them.

    I suspect if it wasn't Trump on the Republican ballot, the Republicans would be coasting into the White House..
    This is what is so annoying of the many annoying things about Trump. The USA - and the West - desperately needs a capable, clever, charismatic Republican president to rull back the Woke and unite us all in the coming struggle against ChiRussia. Instead the GOP and America offers us this warmed-over lunatic villain, fighting a Democrat who is actually a revived cadaver: AGAIN

    The POTUS elex are the Decline of the West, encapsulated
    That's the problem generally across the West.

    The boring centrists, and the angry populists are just selling different versions of snake oil.

    But Biden is certainly preferable to Trump.
    Imagine how grateful we’d be for Bush II now.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463
    Labour really do hate the working classes as they ban my favourite working class meal.

    🔴 NEW: Labour will ban foie gras imports if they win the general election, the shadow environment secretary has announced

    https://x.com/TelePolitics/status/1797907892743385443
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