On Leon’s Islamophobic parroting of Tommy Robinson, Full Fact had a piece on the claims that go around the Internet, including Sarah Champion's comments: https://fullfact.org/crime/one-million-grooming/
Yes, it's another step in the process of civilisation. Once upon a time animal torture was regarded as acceptable, but nowadays people aren't so keen. Long may the trend continue.
Except for deer.
Yeah - I'm a veggie but we do need to cull wild deer in this country. Personally I'd like to see this happen by bringing back predator species, because wolves and bears are cool, but failing that letting people eat deer is reasonable.
Moggies first. The medium-sized cat predators are much less scary and threatening than wolves and bears.
Yes, it's another step in the process of civilisation. Once upon a time animal torture was regarded as acceptable, but nowadays people aren't so keen. Long may the trend continue.
Except for deer.
Yeah - I'm a veggie but we do need to cull wild deer in this country. Personally I'd like to see this happen by bringing back predator species, because wolves and bears are cool, but failing that letting people eat deer is reasonable.
Moggies first. The medium-sized cat predators are much less scary and threatening than wolves and bears.
But I don't think they would predate on the deer enough. We need big predators that would not only cull numbers but change deer behaviour and make them more worried around open spaces and watering holes and such. The issue of deer is not just their numbers, but their grazing habits and the erosion they cause by not really acting in ways they would of when they did have predators. Their numbers alongside this behaviour change is what makes the impact so much worse.
I mean a wolf killing a deer would be a pretty long, drawn out, bloody, and painful affair do you really want to include that one deer rather than a single bullet.
It's not like a pack of hounds killing a fox which was a super efficient means of pest control.
But like I said, this isn't just about culling, it's about changing deer behaviour to be less damaging. Human hunting isn't something that keeps deer on edge and anxious like having natural predators does. Anxiety reduces breeding, reduces congregating in certain spots, makes spooking behaviour more pronounced. Short of sending out people tasked with guns to mow deer down, even if we increase hunting licenses for deer, I don't see human action making enough of a dent.
And the issue with animal suffering and efficiency and such is less to do with the existence of it; nature is, as Darwin noted, cruel and painful and inefficient. But as humans we have created an understanding of morality where we want to reduce unnecessary pain and suffering. To me that includes eating factory farmed meat or the tearing apart of a fox by dogs for the amusement of some toffs. That doesn't preclude me from wanting to bring back extinct predators (to potential benefit of the environment and biodiversity as a whole) if it also helps deal with other man made problems.
If only animals understood irony.
As it was being eaten alive - because that's how it works - the deer could ponder that such a death inflicted upon it was to satisfy your social ethical imperative while dreaming of being killed near-instantly by a pack of hounds or marksman's bullet.
Look, nature tooth and claw. I don't think meat eating is inherently morally wrong as a human - I just think when we can sustain ourselves without harming animals and the method by which we do mass meat farming is contributing to massive deforestation and ecological destruction that it's a bad idea. If you keep chickens in your back garden and decide to eat them when they start getting old, or if you're poor and have no other choice, that's fine.
I'm not an Auditor from the Discworld, demanding that all life stop to preserve order or my idea of what is moral. The natural world is immoral. Humans are able to stand against the pressures of nature in ways basically all other animals cannot, and we have the luxury and capability of developing and acting in moral ways.
"The natural world is immoral." - thats an odd phrase. Wouldn't amoral be a better choice? What does a snake know of morals? Or a lion? Or a fish? Morality is a human construct.
I mean, yes that is probably more apt. But I was thinking more on this quote from Unseen Academicals (in part, I'm sure, inspired by Darwin's own writings on wasps and caterpillars)
The Patrician took a sip of his beer. “I have told this to few people, gentlemen, and I suspect I never will again, but one day when I was a young boy on holiday in Uberwald I was walking along the bank of a stream when I saw a mother otter with her cubs. A very endearing sight, I’m sure you will agree, and even as I watched, the mother otter dived into the water and came up with a plump salmon, which she subdued and dragged on to a half-submerged log. As she ate it, while of course it was still alive, the body split and I remember to this day the sweet pinkness of its roes as they spilled out, much to the delight of the baby otters who scrambled over themselves to feed on the delicacy. One of nature’s wonders, gentlemen: mother and children dining upon mother and children. And that’s when I first learned about evil. It is built into the very nature of the universe. Every world spins in pain. If there is any kind of supreme being, I told myself, it is up to all of us to become his moral superior.”
Much as I hate to disagree with the great man, I don't think thats an example of evil. Evil would be killing the samlon and NOT eating it.
1 day after announcing candidacy and a very limited left wing vote? It's going to be close. The big risk for the Tories is if candidates defect an hour before nominations close, which I could see happening.
Can you change your nomination papers once they have been submitted (up until the 4pm deadline I mean)?
So a quick rewrite to say Reform at the last minute?
Or do you have to withdraw and resubmit?
Others will know better, but from my reading of the EC website representing a party is a two step process - first you get nominated, then you hand in a form with your party affiliation approved by the party, so I assume step 2 can be re-done.
If you are standing for a party you must provide a certificate of authority from said party. Nomination papers will probably be handed in by party officials to stop any shenanigans. The Returning Officer has the right to reject any nomination that they feel is clearly a sham /scam and knowingly providing false info is a criminal offence - this would include deliberately misleading your nominators
Nomination papers can only be submitted by 4 people - the candidate, the agent, the proposer or the seconder.
Just spent over an hour trying to buy a train ticket at the station (good job it was for tomorrow). I seem to have broken the system. It is not like it was complicated. A to B with 2 senior railcards.
Use the Trainline app – far easier than paper tickets.
Trainline charge and both Journey Planner and Trainline got it wrong as well. None could decide what to charge me. The problem was repeated at the station, but the guy made a very very very long phone call.
All too complicated.
Trainline charged me £2.49 extra fee recently for 2 tickets purchased online. How much do you value an hour of your time?
Well exactly, and they automatically split the tickets without your needing to research it, which usually saves more than the booking fee. I use nothing else, and I travel by rail a lot.
Read the fucking posts. I am getting really annoyed now. I COULD NOT BUY IT ONLINE. IT did not work. I had to go to the stration.
Some folk do develop a certain agnosia. But I've never come across this. Shame Charcot is dead, likewise Oliver Sacks - he could have made an interesting chapter out of PB.
I need to calm down. I like these posters, but it does make me wonder if I am posting in an alien language.
The answer is surely to never take a train journey where you can’t buy an online ticket
I mean even this bus from Moldova to Ukraine IN THE MIDDLE OF A WAR had an easy online ticketing system
I'm sure you are just trying to wind me up @leon but it should not have been challenging. It was a straightforward journey. It was just a glitch of some sort involving the combinations involved. The ticket could not be bought online nor at the ticket office. But at the ticket office there is a man with a phone who does something about it.
It was just one of those unlucky things that could happen to anyone on any mundane journey. The pricing structure here is just to complicated that the simple combination I had fell through the cracks.
Train is the only option I have because I will be on a bike.
WHAT WAS THE JOURNEY
Hi @Topping. I'm not going to get into this because I can't believe the comments it stirred up already over such an insignificant story of me complaining that the rail fare set up we have here is far too complicated, which I think everyone accepts.
Just to say it was not a complicated journey (4 trains, 3 changes) but the time combinations and going in and out of London across peak/off peak times with a Senior Railcard made smoke come out of the machine. It wasn't an online failure but a failure of the system not being able to handle the combination, which to be honest wasn't that unrealistic. The system either couldn't produce a price or came up with a random price. Needless to say the highest price is the one everyone settled on.
It sounds like you maybe should have bought different tickets. Buy a peak ticket up to the first station after peak time, and an off peak thereafter.
There’s a non-zero chance he sparks something like the Cleggasm in a specific group of voters. 1/15? 1/20? Hmmm.
I suspect he's done enough to create real problems for the Tory party as they select the wrong set of seats to focus campaigning in.
As I said earlier today there are now 200 seats (their core seats) where the campaign needs to be focussed, question is are they trying to keep seats 160-200 or seats 1-50....
1 day after announcing candidacy and a very limited left wing vote? It's going to be close. The big risk for the Tories is if candidates defect an hour before nominations close, which I could see happening.
Can you change your nomination papers once they have been submitted (up until the 4pm deadline I mean)?
So a quick rewrite to say Reform at the last minute?
Or do you have to withdraw and resubmit?
Others will know better, but from my reading of the EC website representing a party is a two step process - first you get nominated, then you hand in a form with your party affiliation approved by the party, so I assume step 2 can be re-done.
If you are standing for a party you must provide a certificate of authority from said party. Nomination papers will probably be handed in by party officials to stop any shenanigans. The Returning Officer has the right to reject any nomination that they feel is clearly a sham /scam and knowingly providing false info is a criminal offence - this would include deliberately misleading your nominators
Nomination papers can only be submitted by 4 people - the candidate, the agent, the proposer or the seconder.
There’s a non-zero chance he sparks something like the Cleggasm in a specific group of voters. 1/15? 1/20? Hmmm.
I suspect he's done enough to create real problems for the Tory party as they select the wrong set of seats to focus campaigning in.
As I said earlier today there are now 200 seats (their core seats) where the campaign needs to be focussed, question is are they trying to keep seats 160-200 or seats 1-50....
They are bloody lucky Boris is staying loyal. Him with Farage would be… interesting.
Listening to Farage this morning on R4 Today, I noticed one tiny thing. He didn't want to dwell at all on the fact that his policy of Zero Net Migration = 500,000+ new arrivals every year (matching the departures). That's 5 million per decade. He minimally acknowledged and moved away immediately.
For the right there are two big issues about inward migration; the numbers causing housing/services problems, and secondly the 'cultural' issues.
Net Zero migration may address the Reform voter's problem with the first, but not the second. Has anyone noticed this? I don't think Farage wants it mentioned. Which of course means no-one in the political domain does.
I mean, it's also because nobody wants to make the argument for solving the first crisis without worrying about immigration - investment. We could invest in better infrastructure, more schools, doctors, houses etc. and still have immigration.
Farage is happy to push on those issues because that is what has been gifted to him by the neoliberal turn. People seem to forget that Corbyn's policies were still quite popular with a large portion of the population - he was just so unpopular that negative polarisation held together a coalition for the Tories. When Johnson said he'd turn on the spending spigot with Levelling Up, the Tories won in Labour heartlands. As long as the state keeps arguing it has no resources to care for average people, people will grow resentful.
Someone like Farage will aim that resentment towards the foreigner, people like Leon towards "wokeness". I would argue the left (correctly) turns that ire on capitalists - as they are the dragons of fable sitting on their hordes of wealth. The immigrant doing what humans have always done, move around the world when they need to, is not in a position of power to affect the poor state of our country. The "woke" who are just asking for historic injustice to be recognised, acknowledged and no longer perpetuated don't hold the levers of power. Those who do have power and influence in our politic are those who are wealthy, who own companies, who demand less regulation etc. etc. They are the ones who have been catered to in the last 30-40 years, and that is the reason for our decline. And no one who benefits from that system is going to stand up and point that out. So Farage is a useful tool - because when he points at shadows and calls them phantoms people don't look at the real causes of the problem.
The 100,000+ white underage English girls raped by racist Muslim grooming gangs might have a claim they were *a tiny bit affected* by migration
The idea that there are 100s of thousands of young girls victimised by immigrants is another right wing fantasy -
We know who is actually the most likely perpetrator of sexual assault - someone within the close family or a family friend of the victim, followed by someone with a position of authority in their community (a priest, a teacher, etc.). Again - this is a projection of the right who look at patriarchal family structure as something that must be protected and, unwilling to accept that that structure leads to more sexual assault, says it must be the foreigner, the outsider, the Other who is really to blame. Is that to say there are literally 0 cases of immigrants committing sexual assault or rape? Of course not. But the idea that it is endemic, or even common, is preposterous. It's the same old "got to keep our white women safe" rhetoric of days gone by.
And even if it were true - this would still be an infrastructure problem because the justice system is part of the social infrastructure that has been destroyed by austerity. Do the police take sexual assault or rape seriously? No.
And then when it comes to getting a court date and a trial, of course, the massive backlog of serious crimes is largely due to massive underfunding by central government
Now the likes of you may want to save money by doing away with "lefty lawyers" and "fair trials" and just flog and hang anyone who looks shifty - I personally think it matters to have things like evidence and proof and due process. And those things take resources.
Except that the LABOUR MP for Rotherham thinks it may be as high as a million. And I have a tiny idea she might know more than you. Don’t you?
So 100,000 is actually and tragically conservative
So your citation is one MP in the Mirror from 2015 saying it "could be" as high as a million kids being sexually assaulted by Muslim grooming gangs; what I have cited is a summary of a Home Office report from 2020 that was directly aimed at investigating those claims which shows how that is not the case:
We can also see how some of the issue is straight up victim blaming by the cops, with reports from stories like this where "The inquiry into the Telford abuse scandal, which published its report in 2022, found police dismissive of claims of abuse, with one saying "these girls had chosen to go with, I don't know, 'bad boys'".https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65174096
Again, grooming gangs happen and sexual assault happens and it is awful - but none of this suggests it is a problem predominantly of immigrant populations nor would it be solved by stopping immigration, because if you did stop immigration you'd still have the issue of most people committing sexual assault against girls and women being white British, and the issue of the police not giving a shit because they are institutionally misogynistic.
I also find it very interesting how the man who cries about wokeness all the time is claiming to care about sexual assault of women - is feminism not woke? Was the movement to hold powerful men accountable for their sexual crimes not woke? Or is it just that when you can pin sexual crimes on black and brown skinned people you want to claim you care about women?
1400 girls were raped/abused/tortured in Rotherham according to the official report. Rotherham has a population of 260,000, about 0.3% of the UK. We know this pattern of rape and grooming has occurred all across the UK - basically wherever it is sought, it is found
300 x 1400 = 420,000
I’ve reduced it by 75% so you don’t have conniptions; you can thank me later
OK, since you're likeably amusing, and I'm sure you don't want to make a fool of yourself, it doesn't work like that.
Most of Britain doesn't have the toxic ethic and cultural issues that Rochdale has.
Two ways of following that up.
Either a truly hideous number of young women are being raped, and it's mostly being done by white people.
Or you can't scale up numbers from Rochdale to the whole country in the way you have. It would be like trying to estimate the number of wearers of red trousers in the UK by sampling at a Spectator garden party. And the 100k estimate is, at best, silly. At worst, it's deliberately nasty.
Doesn't make what happened in Rochdale any less awful. But take care how many shrouds you wave.
Farage will win Clacton RefUK will help the Tories get absolutely demolished The Tory MPs left will be Faragista Tory members are already Faragista
Farage as the next Tory leader? Doable.
Why do you think the MPs left will be Faragists? Surely it all depends on location, not the individual leanings. That depends on the electorate, not the membership.
Ha, yes, there's a fallacy that it is often assumed that the most right wing Tories are those with the safest seats (and vice versa for Labour) - and therefore any incoming tide will disproportionately wash away the centrists. It might be true, but I've never seen it convincingly demonstrated that it is.
Just spent over an hour trying to buy a train ticket at the station (good job it was for tomorrow). I seem to have broken the system. It is not like it was complicated. A to B with 2 senior railcards.
Use the Trainline app – far easier than paper tickets.
I always buy a paper ticket for the tube when I'm in London because it's the only way to avoid being fined if you spend more than about 80 minutes in the system without touching out.
I live here and haven't used a paper ticket or been fined... since time immemorial. It's all contactless by phone now. Paper is for tourists, a waste of money, and should be abolished.
If you are making a cross-London journey (mainline train - tube - mainline train) with the "Maltese Cross" on your ticket, then you have to have a paper ticket to put through the Underground barriers, as they are not set up to accept e-tickets (or whatever the pdf on your phone is called these days).
Likewise, if your destination is "London Underground Zone 1 (other zones are available), where a single tube journey is included in the ticket price.
Just spent over an hour trying to buy a train ticket at the station (good job it was for tomorrow). I seem to have broken the system. It is not like it was complicated. A to B with 2 senior railcards.
Use the Trainline app – far easier than paper tickets.
I always buy a paper ticket for the tube when I'm in London because it's the only way to avoid being fined if you spend more than about 80 minutes in the system without touching out.
I do the same. With a paper ticket you can also get away with a glance and a shrug by the guard if, for example, you boarded a slightly different one to that booked due to delays etc. But, with a barcode, they will scan it and if the computer says no then there's no argument.
Listening to Farage this morning on R4 Today, I noticed one tiny thing. He didn't want to dwell at all on the fact that his policy of Zero Net Migration = 500,000+ new arrivals every year (matching the departures). That's 5 million per decade. He minimally acknowledged and moved away immediately.
For the right there are two big issues about inward migration; the numbers causing housing/services problems, and secondly the 'cultural' issues.
Net Zero migration may address the Reform voter's problem with the first, but not the second. Has anyone noticed this? I don't think Farage wants it mentioned. Which of course means no-one in the political domain does.
I mean, it's also because nobody wants to make the argument for solving the first crisis without worrying about immigration - investment. We could invest in better infrastructure, more schools, doctors, houses etc. and still have immigration.
Farage is happy to push on those issues because that is what has been gifted to him by the neoliberal turn. People seem to forget that Corbyn's policies were still quite popular with a large portion of the population - he was just so unpopular that negative polarisation held together a coalition for the Tories. When Johnson said he'd turn on the spending spigot with Levelling Up, the Tories won in Labour heartlands. As long as the state keeps arguing it has no resources to care for average people, people will grow resentful.
Someone like Farage will aim that resentment towards the foreigner, people like Leon towards "wokeness". I would argue the left (correctly) turns that ire on capitalists - as they are the dragons of fable sitting on their hordes of wealth. The immigrant doing what humans have always done, move around the world when they need to, is not in a position of power to affect the poor state of our country. The "woke" who are just asking for historic injustice to be recognised, acknowledged and no longer perpetuated don't hold the levers of power. Those who do have power and influence in our politic are those who are wealthy, who own companies, who demand less regulation etc. etc. They are the ones who have been catered to in the last 30-40 years, and that is the reason for our decline. And no one who benefits from that system is going to stand up and point that out. So Farage is a useful tool - because when he points at shadows and calls them phantoms people don't look at the real causes of the problem.
The 100,000+ white underage English girls raped by racist Muslim grooming gangs might have a claim they were *a tiny bit affected* by migration
The idea that there are 100s of thousands of young girls victimised by immigrants is another right wing fantasy -
We know who is actually the most likely perpetrator of sexual assault - someone within the close family or a family friend of the victim, followed by someone with a position of authority in their community (a priest, a teacher, etc.). Again - this is a projection of the right who look at patriarchal family structure as something that must be protected and, unwilling to accept that that structure leads to more sexual assault, says it must be the foreigner, the outsider, the Other who is really to blame. Is that to say there are literally 0 cases of immigrants committing sexual assault or rape? Of course not. But the idea that it is endemic, or even common, is preposterous. It's the same old "got to keep our white women safe" rhetoric of days gone by.
And even if it were true - this would still be an infrastructure problem because the justice system is part of the social infrastructure that has been destroyed by austerity. Do the police take sexual assault or rape seriously? No.
And then when it comes to getting a court date and a trial, of course, the massive backlog of serious crimes is largely due to massive underfunding by central government
Now the likes of you may want to save money by doing away with "lefty lawyers" and "fair trials" and just flog and hang anyone who looks shifty - I personally think it matters to have things like evidence and proof and due process. And those things take resources.
Except that the LABOUR MP for Rotherham thinks it may be as high as a million. And I have a tiny idea she might know more than you. Don’t you?
So 100,000 is actually and tragically conservative
So your citation is one MP in the Mirror from 2015 saying it "could be" as high as a million kids being sexually assaulted by Muslim grooming gangs; what I have cited is a summary of a Home Office report from 2020 that was directly aimed at investigating those claims which shows how that is not the case:
We can also see how some of the issue is straight up victim blaming by the cops, with reports from stories like this where "The inquiry into the Telford abuse scandal, which published its report in 2022, found police dismissive of claims of abuse, with one saying "these girls had chosen to go with, I don't know, 'bad boys'".https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65174096
Again, grooming gangs happen and sexual assault happens and it is awful - but none of this suggests it is a problem predominantly of immigrant populations nor would it be solved by stopping immigration, because if you did stop immigration you'd still have the issue of most people committing sexual assault against girls and women being white British, and the issue of the police not giving a shit because they are institutionally misogynistic.
I also find it very interesting how the man who cries about wokeness all the time is claiming to care about sexual assault of women - is feminism not woke? Was the movement to hold powerful men accountable for their sexual crimes not woke? Or is it just that when you can pin sexual crimes on black and brown skinned people you want to claim you care about women?
1400 girls were raped/abused/tortured in Rotherham according to the official report. Rotherham has a population of 260,000, about 0.3% of the UK. We know this pattern of rape and grooming has occurred all across the UK - basically wherever it is sought, it is found
300 x 1400 = 420,000
I’ve reduced it by 75% so you don’t have conniptions; you can thank me later
OK, since you're likeably amusing, and I'm sure you don't want to make a fool of yourself, it doesn't work like that.
Most of Britain doesn't have the toxic ethic and cultural issues that Rochdale has.
Two ways of following that up.
Either a truly hideous number of young women are being raped, and it's mostly being done by white people.
Or you can't scale up numbers from Rochdale to the whole country in the way you have. It would be like trying to estimate the number of wearers of red trousers in the UK by sampling at a Spectator garden party. And the 100k estimate is, at best, silly. At worst, it's deliberately nasty.
Doesn't make what happened in Rochdale any less awful. But take care how many shrouds you wave.
Given that you’ve confused Rochdale and Rotherham I think we can ignore the rest of your fatuity
Prospect raised above of Tory candidate defections to Reform.
The point has been rightfully made that the best time to do this if you are a current Tory candidate is surely Friday, so that the Tories don’t have time to nominate another candidate in your place before nominations close.
It also gives Reform a huge boost ahead of the Farage appearance in the 7-way debate on Friday.
Will we see a mass defection? Perhaps not. But we will surely see at least one.
The momentum may pick up if Sunak does poorly if tonight’s debate and some scared Tories get itchy feet.
I think there are still value bets in a big defection this week and proxy bets accordingly.
This is doable, with some subterfuge 1. Be on go slow with your Tory agent with regards to signing the paperwork 2. Get signing the RefUK paperwork on the sly and get it checked by the LA election officials 3. Go AWOL when the Tory agent is demanding an immediate signature as "you're going to miss the deadline"
Result? Tory candidate is reborn as a Reform candidate, no Tory on the ballot.
Do we have any Tory candidates in mind for such shenanigans?
There was a list circulating earlier of 60 seats where Reform had yet to declare candidates I think - and a lot of them had potentially sympathetic Tories. I really think that something major might be in the offing.
Do you know where I could find that list? Might be a good chance to get on reform in the 20s+ and sell in single digits. If you were a Tory with no hope of winning in a Brexity constituency there's very little to lose
FWIW using 2019 election data - constituencies where (a) 2016 Leave was above 60%, (b) Tory Majority below 10k (or Cons lost), and (c) Con + BXP beat Lab by 6k votes or more are:
Rother Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Ashfield, Great Grimsby, Bolsover, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Stoke-On-Trent North, Scunthorpe, Barnsley East, Hartlepool, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Redcar, Wakefield
Ashfield is already spoken for, but that'd be my risk list (obvs needs to be adjusted for boundary redrawing).
Listening to Farage this morning on R4 Today, I noticed one tiny thing. He didn't want to dwell at all on the fact that his policy of Zero Net Migration = 500,000+ new arrivals every year (matching the departures). That's 5 million per decade. He minimally acknowledged and moved away immediately.
For the right there are two big issues about inward migration; the numbers causing housing/services problems, and secondly the 'cultural' issues.
Net Zero migration may address the Reform voter's problem with the first, but not the second. Has anyone noticed this? I don't think Farage wants it mentioned. Which of course means no-one in the political domain does.
I mean, it's also because nobody wants to make the argument for solving the first crisis without worrying about immigration - investment. We could invest in better infrastructure, more schools, doctors, houses etc. and still have immigration.
Farage is happy to push on those issues because that is what has been gifted to him by the neoliberal turn. People seem to forget that Corbyn's policies were still quite popular with a large portion of the population - he was just so unpopular that negative polarisation held together a coalition for the Tories. When Johnson said he'd turn on the spending spigot with Levelling Up, the Tories won in Labour heartlands. As long as the state keeps arguing it has no resources to care for average people, people will grow resentful.
Someone like Farage will aim that resentment towards the foreigner, people like Leon towards "wokeness". I would argue the left (correctly) turns that ire on capitalists - as they are the dragons of fable sitting on their hordes of wealth. The immigrant doing what humans have always done, move around the world when they need to, is not in a position of power to affect the poor state of our country. The "woke" who are just asking for historic injustice to be recognised, acknowledged and no longer perpetuated don't hold the levers of power. Those who do have power and influence in our politic are those who are wealthy, who own companies, who demand less regulation etc. etc. They are the ones who have been catered to in the last 30-40 years, and that is the reason for our decline. And no one who benefits from that system is going to stand up and point that out. So Farage is a useful tool - because when he points at shadows and calls them phantoms people don't look at the real causes of the problem.
The 100,000+ white underage English girls raped by racist Muslim grooming gangs might have a claim they were *a tiny bit affected* by migration
The idea that there are 100s of thousands of young girls victimised by immigrants is another right wing fantasy -
We know who is actually the most likely perpetrator of sexual assault - someone within the close family or a family friend of the victim, followed by someone with a position of authority in their community (a priest, a teacher, etc.). Again - this is a projection of the right who look at patriarchal family structure as something that must be protected and, unwilling to accept that that structure leads to more sexual assault, says it must be the foreigner, the outsider, the Other who is really to blame. Is that to say there are literally 0 cases of immigrants committing sexual assault or rape? Of course not. But the idea that it is endemic, or even common, is preposterous. It's the same old "got to keep our white women safe" rhetoric of days gone by.
And even if it were true - this would still be an infrastructure problem because the justice system is part of the social infrastructure that has been destroyed by austerity. Do the police take sexual assault or rape seriously? No.
And then when it comes to getting a court date and a trial, of course, the massive backlog of serious crimes is largely due to massive underfunding by central government
Now the likes of you may want to save money by doing away with "lefty lawyers" and "fair trials" and just flog and hang anyone who looks shifty - I personally think it matters to have things like evidence and proof and due process. And those things take resources.
Except that the LABOUR MP for Rotherham thinks it may be as high as a million. And I have a tiny idea she might know more than you. Don’t you?
So 100,000 is actually and tragically conservative
So your citation is one MP in the Mirror from 2015 saying it "could be" as high as a million kids being sexually assaulted by Muslim grooming gangs; what I have cited is a summary of a Home Office report from 2020 that was directly aimed at investigating those claims which shows how that is not the case:
We can also see how some of the issue is straight up victim blaming by the cops, with reports from stories like this where "The inquiry into the Telford abuse scandal, which published its report in 2022, found police dismissive of claims of abuse, with one saying "these girls had chosen to go with, I don't know, 'bad boys'".https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65174096
Again, grooming gangs happen and sexual assault happens and it is awful - but none of this suggests it is a problem predominantly of immigrant populations nor would it be solved by stopping immigration, because if you did stop immigration you'd still have the issue of most people committing sexual assault against girls and women being white British, and the issue of the police not giving a shit because they are institutionally misogynistic.
I also find it very interesting how the man who cries about wokeness all the time is claiming to care about sexual assault of women - is feminism not woke? Was the movement to hold powerful men accountable for their sexual crimes not woke? Or is it just that when you can pin sexual crimes on black and brown skinned people you want to claim you care about women?
1400 girls were raped/abused/tortured in Rotherham according to the official report. Rotherham has a population of 260,000, about 0.3% of the UK. We know this pattern of rape and grooming has occurred all across the UK - basically wherever it is sought, it is found
300 x 1400 = 420,000
I’ve reduced it by 75% so you don’t have conniptions; you can thank me later
OK, since you're likeably amusing, and I'm sure you don't want to make a fool of yourself, it doesn't work like that.
Most of Britain doesn't have the toxic ethic and cultural issues that Rochdale has.
Two ways of following that up.
Either a truly hideous number of young women are being raped, and it's mostly being done by white people.
Or you can't scale up numbers from Rochdale to the whole country in the way you have. It would be like trying to estimate the number of wearers of red trousers in the UK by sampling at a Spectator garden party. And the 100k estimate is, at best, silly. At worst, it's deliberately nasty.
Doesn't make what happened in Rochdale any less awful. But take care how many shrouds you wave.
Given that you’ve confused Rochdale and Rotherham I think we can ignore the rest of your fatuity
This is what you do - a poster here misread the name of a place (which crops up in the name of another poster in this thread) whilst making a point so you jump on that instead of the actual point being made. It doesn't change the nature of the point that was made, but because it is an error you feel smart pointing it out. It's a show move - it's a tactic of debate not of any actual intellect. Why not address his point - what if Rotherham is not an exemplar that can be scaled up to match the full population of the UK? Because that makes a lot more sense when comparing your arse numbers to the numbers given out by the Home Office.
What none of the web sites will do is offer you cheaper tickets where the point of origin is further upstream or the destination further downstream than the journey you intend to make. Referred to as "starting short" or "ending short". Such ticketing loopholes often get shut down as soon as the powers that be find out about them, so it is always annoying when some daft bugger trumpets the fact that they have found one over on Rail Forums, posting all of the details.
Typically: A-C is cheaper than B-C, but A-C is valid via B. Or A-C is cheaper than A-B, but is valid via B.
More complex: A-D is cheaper than B-C, but A-D is valid via B and C.
You have to do your own research for this sort of thing. I found one that could save me a good few quid, but have not needed to employ it yet.
But always make sure that you have a hard copy of the itinerary that the retailer provided, especially if it is a bit of a dubious route, in order to demonstrate your validity when your ticket is checked. "I'm just following the journey that XYZ told me to make when their website sold me the ticket." Also, better to get a paper ticket is such situations, so there is no record of where you have gone through ticket barriers.
((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 22m Told Tory MPs phoning senior Reform officials pleading with them to withdraw candidates in their seats. Meanwhile Red Wall MPs outraged at "wet" Tory candidates being parachuted into safe seats. It's starting to come apart.
Listening to Farage this morning on R4 Today, I noticed one tiny thing. He didn't want to dwell at all on the fact that his policy of Zero Net Migration = 500,000+ new arrivals every year (matching the departures). That's 5 million per decade. He minimally acknowledged and moved away immediately.
For the right there are two big issues about inward migration; the numbers causing housing/services problems, and secondly the 'cultural' issues.
Net Zero migration may address the Reform voter's problem with the first, but not the second. Has anyone noticed this? I don't think Farage wants it mentioned. Which of course means no-one in the political domain does.
I mean, it's also because nobody wants to make the argument for solving the first crisis without worrying about immigration - investment. We could invest in better infrastructure, more schools, doctors, houses etc. and still have immigration.
Farage is happy to push on those issues because that is what has been gifted to him by the neoliberal turn. People seem to forget that Corbyn's policies were still quite popular with a large portion of the population - he was just so unpopular that negative polarisation held together a coalition for the Tories. When Johnson said he'd turn on the spending spigot with Levelling Up, the Tories won in Labour heartlands. As long as the state keeps arguing it has no resources to care for average people, people will grow resentful.
Someone like Farage will aim that resentment towards the foreigner, people like Leon towards "wokeness". I would argue the left (correctly) turns that ire on capitalists - as they are the dragons of fable sitting on their hordes of wealth. The immigrant doing what humans have always done, move around the world when they need to, is not in a position of power to affect the poor state of our country. The "woke" who are just asking for historic injustice to be recognised, acknowledged and no longer perpetuated don't hold the levers of power. Those who do have power and influence in our politic are those who are wealthy, who own companies, who demand less regulation etc. etc. They are the ones who have been catered to in the last 30-40 years, and that is the reason for our decline. And no one who benefits from that system is going to stand up and point that out. So Farage is a useful tool - because when he points at shadows and calls them phantoms people don't look at the real causes of the problem.
The 100,000+ white underage English girls raped by racist Muslim grooming gangs might have a claim they were *a tiny bit affected* by migration
The idea that there are 100s of thousands of young girls victimised by immigrants is another right wing fantasy -
We know who is actually the most likely perpetrator of sexual assault - someone within the close family or a family friend of the victim, followed by someone with a position of authority in their community (a priest, a teacher, etc.). Again - this is a projection of the right who look at patriarchal family structure as something that must be protected and, unwilling to accept that that structure leads to more sexual assault, says it must be the foreigner, the outsider, the Other who is really to blame. Is that to say there are literally 0 cases of immigrants committing sexual assault or rape? Of course not. But the idea that it is endemic, or even common, is preposterous. It's the same old "got to keep our white women safe" rhetoric of days gone by.
And even if it were true - this would still be an infrastructure problem because the justice system is part of the social infrastructure that has been destroyed by austerity. Do the police take sexual assault or rape seriously? No.
And then when it comes to getting a court date and a trial, of course, the massive backlog of serious crimes is largely due to massive underfunding by central government
Now the likes of you may want to save money by doing away with "lefty lawyers" and "fair trials" and just flog and hang anyone who looks shifty - I personally think it matters to have things like evidence and proof and due process. And those things take resources.
Except that the LABOUR MP for Rotherham thinks it may be as high as a million. And I have a tiny idea she might know more than you. Don’t you?
So 100,000 is actually and tragically conservative
So your citation is one MP in the Mirror from 2015 saying it "could be" as high as a million kids being sexually assaulted by Muslim grooming gangs; what I have cited is a summary of a Home Office report from 2020 that was directly aimed at investigating those claims which shows how that is not the case:
We can also see how some of the issue is straight up victim blaming by the cops, with reports from stories like this where "The inquiry into the Telford abuse scandal, which published its report in 2022, found police dismissive of claims of abuse, with one saying "these girls had chosen to go with, I don't know, 'bad boys'".https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65174096
Again, grooming gangs happen and sexual assault happens and it is awful - but none of this suggests it is a problem predominantly of immigrant populations nor would it be solved by stopping immigration, because if you did stop immigration you'd still have the issue of most people committing sexual assault against girls and women being white British, and the issue of the police not giving a shit because they are institutionally misogynistic.
I also find it very interesting how the man who cries about wokeness all the time is claiming to care about sexual assault of women - is feminism not woke? Was the movement to hold powerful men accountable for their sexual crimes not woke? Or is it just that when you can pin sexual crimes on black and brown skinned people you want to claim you care about women?
1400 girls were raped/abused/tortured in Rotherham according to the official report. Rotherham has a population of 260,000, about 0.3% of the UK. We know this pattern of rape and grooming has occurred all across the UK - basically wherever it is sought, it is found
300 x 1400 = 420,000
I’ve reduced it by 75% so you don’t have conniptions; you can thank me later
OK, since you're likeably amusing, and I'm sure you don't want to make a fool of yourself, it doesn't work like that.
Most of Britain doesn't have the toxic ethic and cultural issues that Rochdale has.
Two ways of following that up.
Either a truly hideous number of young women are being raped, and it's mostly being done by white people.
Or you can't scale up numbers from Rochdale to the whole country in the way you have. It would be like trying to estimate the number of wearers of red trousers in the UK by sampling at a Spectator garden party. And the 100k estimate is, at best, silly. At worst, it's deliberately nasty.
Doesn't make what happened in Rochdale any less awful. But take care how many shrouds you wave.
Given that you’ve confused Rochdale and Rotherham I think we can ignore the rest of your fatuity
This is what you do - a poster here misread the name of a place (which crops up in the name of another poster in this thread) whilst making a point so you jump on that instead of the actual point being made. It doesn't change the nature of the point that was made, but because it is an error you feel smart pointing it out. It's a show move - it's a tactic of debate not of any actual intellect. Why not address his point - what if Rotherham is not an exemplar that can be scaled up to match the full population of the UK? Because that makes a lot more sense when comparing your arse numbers to the numbers given out by the Home Office.
You're trying to reason with a known troll, and "world traveller".
Prospect raised above of Tory candidate defections to Reform.
The point has been rightfully made that the best time to do this if you are a current Tory candidate is surely Friday, so that the Tories don’t have time to nominate another candidate in your place before nominations close.
It also gives Reform a huge boost ahead of the Farage appearance in the 7-way debate on Friday.
Will we see a mass defection? Perhaps not. But we will surely see at least one.
The momentum may pick up if Sunak does poorly if tonight’s debate and some scared Tories get itchy feet.
I think there are still value bets in a big defection this week and proxy bets accordingly.
This is doable, with some subterfuge 1. Be on go slow with your Tory agent with regards to signing the paperwork 2. Get signing the RefUK paperwork on the sly and get it checked by the LA election officials 3. Go AWOL when the Tory agent is demanding an immediate signature as "you're going to miss the deadline"
Result? Tory candidate is reborn as a Reform candidate, no Tory on the ballot.
Do we have any Tory candidates in mind for such shenanigans?
There was a list circulating earlier of 60 seats where Reform had yet to declare candidates I think - and a lot of them had potentially sympathetic Tories. I really think that something major might be in the offing.
Do you know where I could find that list? Might be a good chance to get on reform in the 20s+ and sell in single digits. If you were a Tory with no hope of winning in a Brexity constituency there's very little to lose
FWIW using 2019 election data - constituencies where (a) 2016 Leave was above 60%, (b) Tory Majority below 10k (or Cons lost), and (c) Con + BXP beat Lab by 6k votes or more are:
Rother Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Ashfield, Great Grimsby, Bolsover, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Stoke-On-Trent North, Scunthorpe, Barnsley East, Hartlepool, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Redcar, Wakefield
Ashfield is already spoken for, but that'd be my risk list (obvs needs to be adjusted for boundary redrawing).
Well the MPs for Newcastle-Under-Lyme and Bishop Auclkand are leaving Parliament / Politics. And I can't see Redcar / Hartlepool going anything other than Red...
Prospect raised above of Tory candidate defections to Reform.
The point has been rightfully made that the best time to do this if you are a current Tory candidate is surely Friday, so that the Tories don’t have time to nominate another candidate in your place before nominations close.
It also gives Reform a huge boost ahead of the Farage appearance in the 7-way debate on Friday.
Will we see a mass defection? Perhaps not. But we will surely see at least one.
The momentum may pick up if Sunak does poorly if tonight’s debate and some scared Tories get itchy feet.
I think there are still value bets in a big defection this week and proxy bets accordingly.
This is doable, with some subterfuge 1. Be on go slow with your Tory agent with regards to signing the paperwork 2. Get signing the RefUK paperwork on the sly and get it checked by the LA election officials 3. Go AWOL when the Tory agent is demanding an immediate signature as "you're going to miss the deadline"
Result? Tory candidate is reborn as a Reform candidate, no Tory on the ballot.
Do we have any Tory candidates in mind for such shenanigans?
There was a list circulating earlier of 60 seats where Reform had yet to declare candidates I think - and a lot of them had potentially sympathetic Tories. I really think that something major might be in the offing.
Do you know where I could find that list? Might be a good chance to get on reform in the 20s+ and sell in single digits. If you were a Tory with no hope of winning in a Brexity constituency there's very little to lose
FWIW using 2019 election data - constituencies where (a) 2016 Leave was above 60%, (b) Tory Majority below 10k (or Cons lost), and (c) Con + BXP beat Lab by 6k votes or more are:
Rother Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Ashfield, Great Grimsby, Bolsover, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Stoke-On-Trent North, Scunthorpe, Barnsley East, Hartlepool, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Redcar, Wakefield
Ashfield is already spoken for, but that'd be my risk list (obvs needs to be adjusted for boundary redrawing).
Well the MPs for Newcastle-Under-Lyme and Bishop Auclkand are leaving Parliament / Politics. And I can't see Redcar / Hartlepool going anything other than Red...
In the case of Hartlepool, a monkey could sneak it.
Prospect raised above of Tory candidate defections to Reform.
The point has been rightfully made that the best time to do this if you are a current Tory candidate is surely Friday, so that the Tories don’t have time to nominate another candidate in your place before nominations close.
It also gives Reform a huge boost ahead of the Farage appearance in the 7-way debate on Friday.
Will we see a mass defection? Perhaps not. But we will surely see at least one.
The momentum may pick up if Sunak does poorly if tonight’s debate and some scared Tories get itchy feet.
I think there are still value bets in a big defection this week and proxy bets accordingly.
This is doable, with some subterfuge 1. Be on go slow with your Tory agent with regards to signing the paperwork 2. Get signing the RefUK paperwork on the sly and get it checked by the LA election officials 3. Go AWOL when the Tory agent is demanding an immediate signature as "you're going to miss the deadline"
Result? Tory candidate is reborn as a Reform candidate, no Tory on the ballot.
Do we have any Tory candidates in mind for such shenanigans?
There was a list circulating earlier of 60 seats where Reform had yet to declare candidates I think - and a lot of them had potentially sympathetic Tories. I really think that something major might be in the offing.
Do you know where I could find that list? Might be a good chance to get on reform in the 20s+ and sell in single digits. If you were a Tory with no hope of winning in a Brexity constituency there's very little to lose
FWIW using 2019 election data - constituencies where (a) 2016 Leave was above 60%, (b) Tory Majority below 10k (or Cons lost), and (c) Con + BXP beat Lab by 6k votes or more are:
Rother Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Ashfield, Great Grimsby, Bolsover, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Stoke-On-Trent North, Scunthorpe, Barnsley East, Hartlepool, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Redcar, Wakefield
Ashfield is already spoken for, but that'd be my risk list (obvs needs to be adjusted for boundary redrawing).
Well the MPs for Newcastle-Under-Lyme and Bishop Auclkand are leaving Parliament / Politics. And I can't see Redcar / Hartlepool going anything other than Red...
In the case of Hartlepool, a monkey could sneak it.
This is what can be avoided with a paper ticket, and why they wanted to abolish them recently, although changed their minds at the last minute after lots of people complained.
Prospect raised above of Tory candidate defections to Reform.
The point has been rightfully made that the best time to do this if you are a current Tory candidate is surely Friday, so that the Tories don’t have time to nominate another candidate in your place before nominations close.
It also gives Reform a huge boost ahead of the Farage appearance in the 7-way debate on Friday.
Will we see a mass defection? Perhaps not. But we will surely see at least one.
The momentum may pick up if Sunak does poorly if tonight’s debate and some scared Tories get itchy feet.
I think there are still value bets in a big defection this week and proxy bets accordingly.
This is doable, with some subterfuge 1. Be on go slow with your Tory agent with regards to signing the paperwork 2. Get signing the RefUK paperwork on the sly and get it checked by the LA election officials 3. Go AWOL when the Tory agent is demanding an immediate signature as "you're going to miss the deadline"
Result? Tory candidate is reborn as a Reform candidate, no Tory on the ballot.
Do we have any Tory candidates in mind for such shenanigans?
There was a list circulating earlier of 60 seats where Reform had yet to declare candidates I think - and a lot of them had potentially sympathetic Tories. I really think that something major might be in the offing.
Do you know where I could find that list? Might be a good chance to get on reform in the 20s+ and sell in single digits. If you were a Tory with no hope of winning in a Brexity constituency there's very little to lose
FWIW using 2019 election data - constituencies where (a) 2016 Leave was above 60%, (b) Tory Majority below 10k (or Cons lost), and (c) Con + BXP beat Lab by 6k votes or more are:
Rother Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Ashfield, Great Grimsby, Bolsover, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Stoke-On-Trent North, Scunthorpe, Barnsley East, Hartlepool, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Redcar, Wakefield
Ashfield is already spoken for, but that'd be my risk list (obvs needs to be adjusted for boundary redrawing).
Well the MPs for Newcastle-Under-Lyme and Bishop Auclkand are leaving Parliament / Politics. And I can't see Redcar / Hartlepool going anything other than Red...
Yep there's also lots of other flaws - e.g. Reform didn't run in Tory constituencies last time, it was just a 5 minute exercise to see potentially fertile ground. I think BA & Hartlepool have potential though.
Sorry for losing my cool early, particularly as I did it with posters I like.
Just to confirm I am not going to mention buying train tickets at the station or online for at least another 24 hours and hopefully for a lot longer.
Not at all, no need to apologise. I wasn't responding directly to you but to the PB Landfillers who are seemingly wedded to an ancient system that is costly, environmentally wasteful and pointless. That is money that could be spent elsewhere on the network but for a handful of holdouts who like stuffing their wallets with silly bits of card that are hard to recycle and litter up stations.
Just spent over an hour trying to buy a train ticket at the station (good job it was for tomorrow). I seem to have broken the system. It is not like it was complicated. A to B with 2 senior railcards.
Use the Trainline app – far easier than paper tickets.
Trainline charge and both Journey Planner and Trainline got it wrong as well. None could decide what to charge me. The problem was repeated at the station, but the guy made a very very very long phone call.
All too complicated.
Online ticket agencies are fine for 90% of journeys. But a good human agent can often get a better deal on more complicated journeys. The basic problem is rail ticketing is far too complex
Listening to Farage this morning on R4 Today, I noticed one tiny thing. He didn't want to dwell at all on the fact that his policy of Zero Net Migration = 500,000+ new arrivals every year (matching the departures). That's 5 million per decade. He minimally acknowledged and moved away immediately.
For the right there are two big issues about inward migration; the numbers causing housing/services problems, and secondly the 'cultural' issues.
Net Zero migration may address the Reform voter's problem with the first, but not the second. Has anyone noticed this? I don't think Farage wants it mentioned. Which of course means no-one in the political domain does.
I mean, it's also because nobody wants to make the argument for solving the first crisis without worrying about immigration - investment. We could invest in better infrastructure, more schools, doctors, houses etc. and still have immigration.
Farage is happy to push on those issues because that is what has been gifted to him by the neoliberal turn. People seem to forget that Corbyn's policies were still quite popular with a large portion of the population - he was just so unpopular that negative polarisation held together a coalition for the Tories. When Johnson said he'd turn on the spending spigot with Levelling Up, the Tories won in Labour heartlands. As long as the state keeps arguing it has no resources to care for average people, people will grow resentful.
Someone like Farage will aim that resentment towards the foreigner, people like Leon towards "wokeness". I would argue the left (correctly) turns that ire on capitalists - as they are the dragons of fable sitting on their hordes of wealth. The immigrant doing what humans have always done, move around the world when they need to, is not in a position of power to affect the poor state of our country. The "woke" who are just asking for historic injustice to be recognised, acknowledged and no longer perpetuated don't hold the levers of power. Those who do have power and influence in our politic are those who are wealthy, who own companies, who demand less regulation etc. etc. They are the ones who have been catered to in the last 30-40 years, and that is the reason for our decline. And no one who benefits from that system is going to stand up and point that out. So Farage is a useful tool - because when he points at shadows and calls them phantoms people don't look at the real causes of the problem.
The 100,000+ white underage English girls raped by racist Muslim grooming gangs might have a claim they were *a tiny bit affected* by migration
The idea that there are 100s of thousands of young girls victimised by immigrants is another right wing fantasy -
We know who is actually the most likely perpetrator of sexual assault - someone within the close family or a family friend of the victim, followed by someone with a position of authority in their community (a priest, a teacher, etc.). Again - this is a projection of the right who look at patriarchal family structure as something that must be protected and, unwilling to accept that that structure leads to more sexual assault, says it must be the foreigner, the outsider, the Other who is really to blame. Is that to say there are literally 0 cases of immigrants committing sexual assault or rape? Of course not. But the idea that it is endemic, or even common, is preposterous. It's the same old "got to keep our white women safe" rhetoric of days gone by.
And even if it were true - this would still be an infrastructure problem because the justice system is part of the social infrastructure that has been destroyed by austerity. Do the police take sexual assault or rape seriously? No.
And then when it comes to getting a court date and a trial, of course, the massive backlog of serious crimes is largely due to massive underfunding by central government
Now the likes of you may want to save money by doing away with "lefty lawyers" and "fair trials" and just flog and hang anyone who looks shifty - I personally think it matters to have things like evidence and proof and due process. And those things take resources.
Except that the LABOUR MP for Rotherham thinks it may be as high as a million. And I have a tiny idea she might know more than you. Don’t you?
So 100,000 is actually and tragically conservative
So your citation is one MP in the Mirror from 2015 saying it "could be" as high as a million kids being sexually assaulted by Muslim grooming gangs; what I have cited is a summary of a Home Office report from 2020 that was directly aimed at investigating those claims which shows how that is not the case:
We can also see how some of the issue is straight up victim blaming by the cops, with reports from stories like this where "The inquiry into the Telford abuse scandal, which published its report in 2022, found police dismissive of claims of abuse, with one saying "these girls had chosen to go with, I don't know, 'bad boys'".https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65174096
Again, grooming gangs happen and sexual assault happens and it is awful - but none of this suggests it is a problem predominantly of immigrant populations nor would it be solved by stopping immigration, because if you did stop immigration you'd still have the issue of most people committing sexual assault against girls and women being white British, and the issue of the police not giving a shit because they are institutionally misogynistic.
I also find it very interesting how the man who cries about wokeness all the time is claiming to care about sexual assault of women - is feminism not woke? Was the movement to hold powerful men accountable for their sexual crimes not woke? Or is it just that when you can pin sexual crimes on black and brown skinned people you want to claim you care about women?
1400 girls were raped/abused/tortured in Rotherham according to the official report. Rotherham has a population of 260,000, about 0.3% of the UK. We know this pattern of rape and grooming has occurred all across the UK - basically wherever it is sought, it is found
300 x 1400 = 420,000
I’ve reduced it by 75% so you don’t have conniptions; you can thank me later
OK, since you're likeably amusing, and I'm sure you don't want to make a fool of yourself, it doesn't work like that.
Most of Britain doesn't have the toxic ethic and cultural issues that Rochdale has.
Two ways of following that up.
Either a truly hideous number of young women are being raped, and it's mostly being done by white people.
Or you can't scale up numbers from Rochdale to the whole country in the way you have. It would be like trying to estimate the number of wearers of red trousers in the UK by sampling at a Spectator garden party. And the 100k estimate is, at best, silly. At worst, it's deliberately nasty.
Doesn't make what happened in Rochdale any less awful. But take care how many shrouds you wave.
Given that you’ve confused Rochdale and Rotherham I think we can ignore the rest of your fatuity
This is what you do - a poster here misread the name of a place (which crops up in the name of another poster in this thread) whilst making a point so you jump on that instead of the actual point being made. It doesn't change the nature of the point that was made, but because it is an error you feel smart pointing it out. It's a show move - it's a tactic of debate not of any actual intellect. Why not address his point - what if Rotherham is not an exemplar that can be scaled up to match the full population of the UK? Because that makes a lot more sense when comparing your arse numbers to the numbers given out by the Home Office.
OK here you go. 19,000 grooming victims in ONE YEAR
“Almost 19,000 children have been sexually groomed in England in the past year, according to official figures that have prompted warnings of an “epidemic”.”
Given that this scandal has festered for three/four decades it seems my estimate of 100,000 is almost certainly underplaying it - and maybe Sarah Champion, Labour MP for Rotherham, is nearer the target with “one million”
And that really is my final word on this for today. Firstly it’s too depressing. And secondly you don’t actually want to argue this, you are intellectually incapable of addressing the reality and you simply want to reinforce your comfort zone of lefty nonsense. So debate is pointless
The BBC "fact-checking" Farage's claim that migration is ruining Britain.
That isn't something you can fact-check, it's a matter of opinion. That the BBC don't realise this is interesting.
The irony of those most obsessed with flags and patriotism claiming Britian is ruined, whilst also being the best place in the world to live. Pick one if you must (the latter is far closer, but it is neither the best (among the best is accurate) nor at all ruined) but believeing both of them is just inconsistent and incoherent.
Just spent over an hour trying to buy a train ticket at the station (good job it was for tomorrow). I seem to have broken the system. It is not like it was complicated. A to B with 2 senior railcards.
Use the Trainline app – far easier than paper tickets.
Trainline charge and both Journey Planner and Trainline got it wrong as well. None could decide what to charge me. The problem was repeated at the station, but the guy made a very very very long phone call.
All too complicated.
Online ticket agencies are fine for 90% of journeys. But a good human agent can often get a better deal on more complicated journeys. The basic problem is rail ticketing is far too complex
Oh agreed. The 'system', such that a system even exists in all but name, is moronic – and needs to be completely overhauled.
That’s what happens in sw France . I have tried the pate , and delicious it is with a sweet wine , lots of crusty bread and a nice onion chutney .
It’s quite rich and I wouldn’t lose any sleep if I didn’t have it again but if you eat meat I don’t think you can moralize too much about people eating it.
Bar Boulud at the Madarin Oriental used to do a burger with a layer of foie gras within. It was exceptional.
I dislike animal cruelty and usually buy higher welfare products, but on foie gras I am a massive hypocrite because it’s so damn tasty.
I’ve never eaten the liver cooked only had the pate but I can imagine it would be lovely on a burger. I wouldn’t worry about the hypocrite bit , we’re all guilty of that at times with the things we eat, or where we shop etc .
I think this tends to be the missing bit in political messaging about stuff like climate change. People respond much more to “do your best but no one is perfect”.
The problem is that what people think is their best is nowhere near good enough to be effective. People respond considerably better in terms of actual behaviour when bad stuff is taxed sufficiently to make it an occasional luxury, but good luck getting elected on that platform.
Well yes, exactly. I have this argument with younger relatives all the time. It’s all very well to take a full on “Thunberg” position, but you’ll never get elected; and if you do then you won’t get reelected and it’ll be reversed.
Democracy = pragmatism.
Which means we're probably fucked unless some sort of global eco-dictatorship can be established.
Nah, on that subject we just accept 2-2.5 degrees of warming based on current policies plus improved technology. Which is fine, unless you live in the Maldives or similar places, and we can help them.
We’ve fixed global warming.
Er, no, we really haven't. Thus far we have made virtually no impact whatsoever on the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere and are currently heading for at least 3 degrees of warming. The Maldives are already doomed, but so too are large areas of coastal plains around the world, not to mention those areas that will be made uninhabitable by heat and shifts in weather patterns. None of this will be fixed by imploring people to "do their best".
What is the timing for the demise of the Maldives out of interest.
Uninhabitable by the end of the century, most likely. Possibly a bit longer with major sea defences, but those probably won't be economically viable. In the long run, evacuation is the only realistic option.
Seriously? 80years away, possibly, a country, actually many, many tiny blips in the middle of the ocean a metre or three above sea level will apparently be submerged. At today's level of technological knowhow.
I am failing to be motivated. As is most of the rest of the planet and I can understand why.
The way to save the Maldives is to remove all the buildings and concrete and let nature build the coral reef back.
The Bahamas have survived 4000m of local sea level change by the simple expedient of growing upwards for 400 million years through ice ages and hothouse earth.
No natural succession and a coral reef will sink.
Start with the concrete runway that brings all the tourists in.
The BBC "fact-checking" Farage's claim that migration is ruining Britain.
That isn't something you can fact-check, it's a matter of opinion. That the BBC don't realise this is interesting.
The irony of those most obsessed with flags and patriotism claiming Britian is ruined, whilst also being the best place in the world to live. Pick one if you must (the latter is far closer, but it is neither the best (among the best is accurate) nor at all ruined) but believeing both of them is just inconsistent and incoherent.
Or, it amuses me on a tediously long bus journey to Odesa when I am stuck next to the fattest man in Eastern Europe
This is what can be avoided with a paper ticket, and why they wanted to abolish them recently, although changed their minds at the last minute after lots of people complained.
What exactly are you doing if you spend 95 minutes getting across Zone 1? It's a tiny area.
((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 22m Told Tory MPs phoning senior Reform officials pleading with them to withdraw candidates in their seats. Meanwhile Red Wall MPs outraged at "wet" Tory candidates being parachuted into safe seats. It's starting to come apart.
That’s what happens in sw France . I have tried the pate , and delicious it is with a sweet wine , lots of crusty bread and a nice onion chutney .
It’s quite rich and I wouldn’t lose any sleep if I didn’t have it again but if you eat meat I don’t think you can moralize too much about people eating it.
Bar Boulud at the Madarin Oriental used to do a burger with a layer of foie gras within. It was exceptional.
I dislike animal cruelty and usually buy higher welfare products, but on foie gras I am a massive hypocrite because it’s so damn tasty.
I’ve never eaten the liver cooked only had the pate but I can imagine it would be lovely on a burger. I wouldn’t worry about the hypocrite bit , we’re all guilty of that at times with the things we eat, or where we shop etc .
I think this tends to be the missing bit in political messaging about stuff like climate change. People respond much more to “do your best but no one is perfect”.
The problem is that what people think is their best is nowhere near good enough to be effective. People respond considerably better in terms of actual behaviour when bad stuff is taxed sufficiently to make it an occasional luxury, but good luck getting elected on that platform.
Well yes, exactly. I have this argument with younger relatives all the time. It’s all very well to take a full on “Thunberg” position, but you’ll never get elected; and if you do then you won’t get reelected and it’ll be reversed.
Democracy = pragmatism.
Which means we're probably fucked unless some sort of global eco-dictatorship can be established.
Nah, on that subject we just accept 2-2.5 degrees of warming based on current policies plus improved technology. Which is fine, unless you live in the Maldives or similar places, and we can help them.
We’ve fixed global warming.
Er, no, we really haven't. Thus far we have made virtually no impact whatsoever on the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere and are currently heading for at least 3 degrees of warming. The Maldives are already doomed, but so too are large areas of coastal plains around the world, not to mention those areas that will be made uninhabitable by heat and shifts in weather patterns. None of this will be fixed by imploring people to "do their best".
I mean that’s just not true. All sensible projections based on agreed measures get you to 2 or 2.5. Even if it was 3, 3 is fine. We’ve averted the truly catastrophic, and actually I think technology will see us do even better.
That’s what happens in sw France . I have tried the pate , and delicious it is with a sweet wine , lots of crusty bread and a nice onion chutney .
It’s quite rich and I wouldn’t lose any sleep if I didn’t have it again but if you eat meat I don’t think you can moralize too much about people eating it.
Bar Boulud at the Madarin Oriental used to do a burger with a layer of foie gras within. It was exceptional.
I dislike animal cruelty and usually buy higher welfare products, but on foie gras I am a massive hypocrite because it’s so damn tasty.
I’ve never eaten the liver cooked only had the pate but I can imagine it would be lovely on a burger. I wouldn’t worry about the hypocrite bit , we’re all guilty of that at times with the things we eat, or where we shop etc .
I think this tends to be the missing bit in political messaging about stuff like climate change. People respond much more to “do your best but no one is perfect”.
The problem is that what people think is their best is nowhere near good enough to be effective. People respond considerably better in terms of actual behaviour when bad stuff is taxed sufficiently to make it an occasional luxury, but good luck getting elected on that platform.
Well yes, exactly. I have this argument with younger relatives all the time. It’s all very well to take a full on “Thunberg” position, but you’ll never get elected; and if you do then you won’t get reelected and it’ll be reversed.
Democracy = pragmatism.
Which means we're probably fucked unless some sort of global eco-dictatorship can be established.
Nah, on that subject we just accept 2-2.5 degrees of warming based on current policies plus improved technology. Which is fine, unless you live in the Maldives or similar places, and we can help them.
We’ve fixed global warming.
Er, no, we really haven't. Thus far we have made virtually no impact whatsoever on the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere and are currently heading for at least 3 degrees of warming. The Maldives are already doomed, but so too are large areas of coastal plains around the world, not to mention those areas that will be made uninhabitable by heat and shifts in weather patterns. None of this will be fixed by imploring people to "do their best".
I mean that’s just not true. All sensible projections based on agreed measures get you to 2 or 2.5. Even if it was 3, 3 is fine. We’ve averted the truly catastrophic, and actually I think technology will see us do even better.
Complacent is easy.
Annual CO2 production is still rising and it’s a fair bet that the price of oil will be driven down by solar etc. it’s gonna be hard to reduce atmospheric carbon.
Plus Check out the AMOC. There are some unpredictable tipping points it’s well worth avoiding.
Prospect raised above of Tory candidate defections to Reform.
The point has been rightfully made that the best time to do this if you are a current Tory candidate is surely Friday, so that the Tories don’t have time to nominate another candidate in your place before nominations close.
It also gives Reform a huge boost ahead of the Farage appearance in the 7-way debate on Friday.
Will we see a mass defection? Perhaps not. But we will surely see at least one.
The momentum may pick up if Sunak does poorly if tonight’s debate and some scared Tories get itchy feet.
I think there are still value bets in a big defection this week and proxy bets accordingly.
This is doable, with some subterfuge 1. Be on go slow with your Tory agent with regards to signing the paperwork 2. Get signing the RefUK paperwork on the sly and get it checked by the LA election officials 3. Go AWOL when the Tory agent is demanding an immediate signature as "you're going to miss the deadline"
Result? Tory candidate is reborn as a Reform candidate, no Tory on the ballot.
Do we have any Tory candidates in mind for such shenanigans?
There was a list circulating earlier of 60 seats where Reform had yet to declare candidates I think - and a lot of them had potentially sympathetic Tories. I really think that something major might be in the offing.
Do you know where I could find that list? Might be a good chance to get on reform in the 20s+ and sell in single digits. If you were a Tory with no hope of winning in a Brexity constituency there's very little to lose
FWIW using 2019 election data - constituencies where (a) 2016 Leave was above 60%, (b) Tory Majority below 10k (or Cons lost), and (c) Con + BXP beat Lab by 6k votes or more are:
Rother Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Ashfield, Great Grimsby, Bolsover, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Stoke-On-Trent North, Scunthorpe, Barnsley East, Hartlepool, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Redcar, Wakefield
Ashfield is already spoken for, but that'd be my risk list (obvs needs to be adjusted for boundary redrawing).
Well the MPs for Newcastle-Under-Lyme and Bishop Auclkand are leaving Parliament / Politics. And I can't see Redcar / Hartlepool going anything other than Red...
Yep there's also lots of other flaws - e.g. Reform didn't run in Tory constituencies last time, it was just a 5 minute exercise to see potentially fertile ground. I think BA & Hartlepool have potential though.
Bxp underperformed in Bishop Auckland in 2019 just barely saving deposit, in 2015 UKIP did a bit better than their national score. The incoming new bits from Pidcockshire are similar
This bus journey is so boring I may actually fight my way through the Russian lines on the Dnieper and fly out from Volgograd rather than face doing this all again on the way back
Nigel Farage appears to ditch key Reform UK immigration policy during live interview. Nigel Farage appeared to ditch a key Reform UK policy live on air, admitting that his party’s plan to process asylum seekers in British Overseas Territories is “not terribly practical”.
Yet another thing the expresserati have to roll back their support for.... Brexiteers are forever retconning their own history to account for their failures and changing leadership over the years..... it is astounding to observe
One thing I'll watch for on election night is the Reform total in whichever Sunderland seat comes in first. It's a strong area and if they are going to be a significant factor in this election they need to be exceeding 15% here
Neil Hudson, Tory MP for Penrith (until dissolution), has been selected for Epping Forest after failing to get selected in the new constituency in his previous area.
Nigel Farage appears to ditch key Reform UK immigration policy during live interview. Nigel Farage appeared to ditch a key Reform UK policy live on air, admitting that his party’s plan to process asylum seekers in British Overseas Territories is “not terribly practical”.
Yet another thing the expresserati have to roll back their support for.... Brexiteers are forever retconning their own history to account for their failures and changing leadership over the years..... it is astounding to observe
Meanwhile Joe Biden is using executive orders to stop people claiming asylum if they cross the border illegally, in contravention of international law.
One thing I'll watch for on election night is the Reform total in whichever Sunderland seat comes in first. It's a strong area and if they are going to be a significant factor in this election they need to be exceeding 15% here
14.5% in Washington / Sunderland West 11.6% in Sunderland Central 15.5% in Houghton & Sunderland South
So 15% would put them at the same point as they were in 2019...
But with Brexit not standing in Tory held seats in 2019 the impact is going to be hard to identify..
I have a degree of scepticism about the individuals behind this, but their list if ideas is more worthy of attention than anything Farage has said in the last two decades, and more likely to contribute to growth than Truss's mad flirtation with power.
Britain has been in a funk. Real GDP per capita hasn't reached its 2007 peak. Real wages have stagnated. Bills and rents are too high, and our transport infrastructure is creaking.
((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 22m Told Tory MPs phoning senior Reform officials pleading with them to withdraw candidates in their seats. Meanwhile Red Wall MPs outraged at "wet" Tory candidates being parachuted into safe seats. It's starting to come apart.
If Refuk were to agree to stand down in the 80 seats where it would make most likely to make a difference, what would they want in return?
Perhaps a coupon election, with Refuk given a free run in at least 20 safe seats plus Clacton? Or would that not be enough?
The problem is that Tory and Reform voters share a very similar demographic profile. So selecting those 80 seats really depends on how bad you think it is for the Tories, and whether there are particular social or tactical aspects for each seat. Complicated!
Think it will be absolutely terrible? It has to be the most right wing seats in the country. But those are the seats that Reform are also gunning for.
My very simple age-based model has the following for Sunak's last stand:
Christchurch North Norfolk New Forest West West Dorset Bexhill and Battle
If it's around 100 seats, it's:
Tatton Fareham and Waterlooville Lichfield Havant Henley and Thame
This is what can be avoided with a paper ticket, and why they wanted to abolish them recently, although changed their minds at the last minute after lots of people complained.
What exactly are you doing if you spend 95 minutes getting across Zone 1? It's a tiny area.
Neil Hudson, Tory MP for Penrith (until dissolution), has been selected for Epping Forest after failing to get selected in the new constituency in his previous area.
This sort of selection is going down like a lead balloon with Red Wall Tory MPs who are stuck fighting an election they know they have zero chance of winning.
Our current Tory MP seems to be visiting the Ice Cream shops and Cafes of the constituency.
This bus journey is so boring I may actually fight my way through the Russian lines on the Dnieper and fly out from Volgograd rather than face doing this all again on the way back
I once did a 14 hour overnight coach journey across South America where they played the film "Elf" on repeat at full volume. I watched it 8 times in a row. In August.
It was briefly interrupted when a woman came on board to try and sell us live chickens. When I arrived I went on the most sustained bender of my life.
Nigel Farage appears to ditch key Reform UK immigration policy during live interview. Nigel Farage appeared to ditch a key Reform UK policy live on air, admitting that his party’s plan to process asylum seekers in British Overseas Territories is “not terribly practical”.
Yet another thing the expresserati have to roll back their support for.... Brexiteers are forever retconning their own history to account for their failures and changing leadership over the years..... it is astounding to observe
The sole amusing thing about Farage's latest foray is the pathetic capitulation of the previous leader, when the blowhard announced he was taking over. RefUK are a bunch of sad cucks.
Neil Hudson, Tory MP for Penrith (until dissolution), has been selected for Epping Forest after failing to get selected in the new constituency in his previous area.
This sort of selection is going down like a lead balloon with Red Wall Tory MPs who are stuck fighting an election they know they have zero chance of winning.
Our current Tory MP seems to be visiting the Ice Cream shops and Cafes of the constituency.
If I clear my cookies will this post look better on vanilla?
This bus journey is so boring I may actually fight my way through the Russian lines on the Dnieper and fly out from Volgograd rather than face doing this all again on the way back
I once did a 14 hour overnight coach journey across South America where they played the film "Elf" on repeat at full volume. I watched it 8 times in a row. In August.
It was briefly interrupted when a woman came on board to try and sell us live chickens. When I arrived I went on the most sustained bender of my life.
Why are bus journeys so much worse than trains? I know you can walk around trains which really helps but jeeeeeez
And this is only 4-5 hours and it *should* be interesting. Crossing into Ukraine
Next time I am doing tramadol and seven vodkas beforehand
Just spent over an hour trying to buy a train ticket at the station (good job it was for tomorrow). I seem to have broken the system. It is not like it was complicated. A to B with 2 senior railcards.
Use the Trainline app – far easier than paper tickets.
Trainline charge and both Journey Planner and Trainline got it wrong as well. None could decide what to charge me. The problem was repeated at the station, but the guy made a very very very long phone call.
All too complicated.
Trainline charged me £2.49 extra fee recently for 2 tickets purchased online. How much do you value an hour of your time?
Given there are a ton of other online vendors who don't charge a fee for the same service, it's not a "save time or pay" question, in my view...
Do they automatically send a QR ticket to your Apple Wallet and are perfectly integrated with your watch too, and give real-time updates and basically every other brilliantly coded feature that Trainline has?
The features including not being able to promise KJH a ticket that would prevent him being thrown off the train somewhere like Forsinard or Berney Arms at 8pm?
It's sounds like he has hit some weird fissure in the rail-space continuum, TBF (I don't know the details). But I have used Trainline exclusively for a decade and it's worked perfectly every time.
There are still some edge cases - getting a SailRail ticket to Belfast via Dublin, for instance.
None of the online providers bother loading the Dublin-Belfast train timetable into their systems any more, so whilst you can select the route, they can't find any journey times and therefore don't let you buy a ticket. You've got to go to a ticket office and persuade them to override the journey planning system, and even then they'll usually claim that such a thing isn't possible if you try anywhere other than at a big station like Euston or St Pancras.
Annoyingly, it used to work - there'd always be at least one provider (Transport for Wales was usually a good bet) who would have the timetables loaded, but they seem to have stopped bothering in the past couple of years.
Rail ticketing systems are great when they work, but when they hit problems they quickly turn into a nightmare to sort out.
This bus journey is so boring I may actually fight my way through the Russian lines on the Dnieper and fly out from Volgograd rather than face doing this all again on the way back
I'd recommend against that, as the Russians deem elderly civilians legitimate targets. They might consider you worth a drone.
This bus journey is so boring I may actually fight my way through the Russian lines on the Dnieper and fly out from Volgograd rather than face doing this all again on the way back
I once did a 14 hour overnight coach journey across South America where they played the film "Elf" on repeat at full volume. I watched it 8 times in a row. In August.
It was briefly interrupted when a woman came on board to try and sell us live chickens. When I arrived I went on the most sustained bender of my life.
Why are bus journeys so much worse than trains? I know you can walk around trains which really helps but jeeeeeez
And this is only 4-5 hours and it *should* be interesting. Crossing into Ukraine
Next time I am doing tramadol and seven vodkas beforehand
I loathe buses. Haven’t been on one for years . You couldn’t pay me enough to go on that horror journey you’re describing .
Nigel Farage appears to ditch key Reform UK immigration policy during live interview. Nigel Farage appeared to ditch a key Reform UK policy live on air, admitting that his party’s plan to process asylum seekers in British Overseas Territories is “not terribly practical”.
Yet another thing the expresserati have to roll back their support for.... Brexiteers are forever retconning their own history to account for their failures and changing leadership over the years..... it is astounding to observe
The sole amusing thing about Farage's latest foray is the pathetic capitulation of the previous leader, when the blowhard announced he was taking over. RefUK are a bunch of sad cucks.
Fararge owns 53% of Reform, so controls it. If he wants to be leader he is, no point fighting him.
This bus journey is so boring I may actually fight my way through the Russian lines on the Dnieper and fly out from Volgograd rather than face doing this all again on the way back
I once did a 14 hour overnight coach journey across South America where they played the film "Elf" on repeat at full volume. I watched it 8 times in a row. In August.
It was briefly interrupted when a woman came on board to try and sell us live chickens. When I arrived I went on the most sustained bender of my life.
Chamonix to London Victoria.
Local hands the driver a tape (OK, yes, it was a while back) in Lyon and we get French rap on loop all the way to Calais. Elf would have been preferable.
Whole journey was something like 24 hours, and we were stacked high with climbing equipment so didn't even have much legroom.
Amazed nobody got DVT.
How do people survive these 'Lochs and Glens' tours? They must be beyond awful.
Nigel Farage appears to ditch key Reform UK immigration policy during live interview. Nigel Farage appeared to ditch a key Reform UK policy live on air, admitting that his party’s plan to process asylum seekers in British Overseas Territories is “not terribly practical”.
Yet another thing the expresserati have to roll back their support for.... Brexiteers are forever retconning their own history to account for their failures and changing leadership over the years..... it is astounding to observe
The sole amusing thing about Farage's latest foray is the pathetic capitulation of the previous leader, when the blowhard announced he was taking over. RefUK are a bunch of sad cucks.
Fararge owns 53% of Reform, so controls it. If he wants to be leader he is, no point fighting him.
It’s not a proper party . Just a vehicle for Farage to peddle his brand of hate politics.
One thing I'll watch for on election night is the Reform total in whichever Sunderland seat comes in first. It's a strong area and if they are going to be a significant factor in this election they need to be exceeding 15% here
14.5% in Washington / Sunderland West 11.6% in Sunderland Central 15.5% in Houghton & Sunderland South
So 15% would put them at the same point as they were in 2019...
But with Brexit not standing in Tory held seats in 2019 the impact is going to be hard to identify..
Will Sunderland get beaten by Newcastle for first to declare again though ?
This bus journey is so boring I may actually fight my way through the Russian lines on the Dnieper and fly out from Volgograd rather than face doing this all again on the way back
I'd recommend against that, as the Russians deem elderly civilians legitimate targets. They might consider you worth a drone.
I’ve got official media accreditation. They wouldn’t harm a gentleman of the press. And an Englishman at that
This is what can be avoided with a paper ticket, and why they wanted to abolish them recently, although changed their minds at the last minute after lots of people complained.
What exactly are you doing if you spend 95 minutes getting across Zone 1? It's a tiny area.
Most likely fallen asleep on circle line....
No longer a circle so you'd end up in Hammersmith!
I have a degree of scepticism about the individuals behind this, but their list if ideas is more worthy of attention than anything Farage has said in the last two decades, and more likely to contribute to growth than Truss's mad flirtation with power.
Britain has been in a funk. Real GDP per capita hasn't reached its 2007 peak. Real wages have stagnated. Bills and rents are too high, and our transport infrastructure is creaking.
Lots of good ideas there. I found this chart very interesting. The rate of private housebuilding isn't low by historical standards. But the state stopped building houses. Add 150,000 houses a year built by the state and I think you'd start to fix the problem.
I will say, stunts like this are very often counterproductive. Although it wouldn’t be a general election without something being thrown at a politician.
That’s what happens in sw France . I have tried the pate , and delicious it is with a sweet wine , lots of crusty bread and a nice onion chutney .
It’s quite rich and I wouldn’t lose any sleep if I didn’t have it again but if you eat meat I don’t think you can moralize too much about people eating it.
Bar Boulud at the Madarin Oriental used to do a burger with a layer of foie gras within. It was exceptional.
I dislike animal cruelty and usually buy higher welfare products, but on foie gras I am a massive hypocrite because it’s so damn tasty.
I’ve never eaten the liver cooked only had the pate but I can imagine it would be lovely on a burger. I wouldn’t worry about the hypocrite bit , we’re all guilty of that at times with the things we eat, or where we shop etc .
I think this tends to be the missing bit in political messaging about stuff like climate change. People respond much more to “do your best but no one is perfect”.
The problem is that what people think is their best is nowhere near good enough to be effective. People respond considerably better in terms of actual behaviour when bad stuff is taxed sufficiently to make it an occasional luxury, but good luck getting elected on that platform.
Well yes, exactly. I have this argument with younger relatives all the time. It’s all very well to take a full on “Thunberg” position, but you’ll never get elected; and if you do then you won’t get reelected and it’ll be reversed.
Democracy = pragmatism.
Which means we're probably fucked unless some sort of global eco-dictatorship can be established.
Nah, on that subject we just accept 2-2.5 degrees of warming based on current policies plus improved technology. Which is fine, unless you live in the Maldives or similar places, and we can help them.
We’ve fixed global warming.
Er, no, we really haven't. Thus far we have made virtually no impact whatsoever on the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere and are currently heading for at least 3 degrees of warming. The Maldives are already doomed, but so too are large areas of coastal plains around the world, not to mention those areas that will be made uninhabitable by heat and shifts in weather patterns. None of this will be fixed by imploring people to "do their best".
I mean that’s just not true. All sensible projections based on agreed measures get you to 2 or 2.5. Even if it was 3, 3 is fine. We’ve averted the truly catastrophic, and actually I think technology will see us do even better.
That’s what happens in sw France . I have tried the pate , and delicious it is with a sweet wine , lots of crusty bread and a nice onion chutney .
It’s quite rich and I wouldn’t lose any sleep if I didn’t have it again but if you eat meat I don’t think you can moralize too much about people eating it.
Bar Boulud at the Madarin Oriental used to do a burger with a layer of foie gras within. It was exceptional.
I dislike animal cruelty and usually buy higher welfare products, but on foie gras I am a massive hypocrite because it’s so damn tasty.
I’ve never eaten the liver cooked only had the pate but I can imagine it would be lovely on a burger. I wouldn’t worry about the hypocrite bit , we’re all guilty of that at times with the things we eat, or where we shop etc .
I think this tends to be the missing bit in political messaging about stuff like climate change. People respond much more to “do your best but no one is perfect”.
The problem is that what people think is their best is nowhere near good enough to be effective. People respond considerably better in terms of actual behaviour when bad stuff is taxed sufficiently to make it an occasional luxury, but good luck getting elected on that platform.
Well yes, exactly. I have this argument with younger relatives all the time. It’s all very well to take a full on “Thunberg” position, but you’ll never get elected; and if you do then you won’t get reelected and it’ll be reversed.
Democracy = pragmatism.
Which means we're probably fucked unless some sort of global eco-dictatorship can be established.
Nah, on that subject we just accept 2-2.5 degrees of warming based on current policies plus improved technology. Which is fine, unless you live in the Maldives or similar places, and we can help them.
We’ve fixed global warming.
Er, no, we really haven't. Thus far we have made virtually no impact whatsoever on the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere and are currently heading for at least 3 degrees of warming. The Maldives are already doomed, but so too are large areas of coastal plains around the world, not to mention those areas that will be made uninhabitable by heat and shifts in weather patterns. None of this will be fixed by imploring people to "do their best".
I mean that’s just not true. All sensible projections based on agreed measures get you to 2 or 2.5. Even if it was 3, 3 is fine. We’ve averted the truly catastrophic, and actually I think technology will see us do even better.
Complacent is easy.
Annual CO2 production is still rising and it’s a fair bet that the price of oil will be driven down by solar etc. it’s gonna be hard to reduce atmospheric carbon.
Plus Check out the AMOC. There are some unpredictable tipping points it’s well worth avoiding.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide. Not carbon. There aren't lumps of coal floating around up there. Or Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds.
BTW, Whoever came up with "carbon capture" instead of "CO2 capture" should be shot.
One thing I'll watch for on election night is the Reform total in whichever Sunderland seat comes in first. It's a strong area and if they are going to be a significant factor in this election they need to be exceeding 15% here
14.5% in Washington / Sunderland West 11.6% in Sunderland Central 15.5% in Houghton & Sunderland South
So 15% would put them at the same point as they were in 2019...
But with Brexit not standing in Tory held seats in 2019 the impact is going to be hard to identify..
Will Sunderland get beaten by Newcastle for first to declare again though ?
The YouGov MRP has the following in the Sunderland seats
Washington - Lab 52, Ref 17, Con 14 Sunderland Central - Lab 48, Con 17, Ref 15 Houghton - Lab 55, Ref 18, Con 14
That’s what happens in sw France . I have tried the pate , and delicious it is with a sweet wine , lots of crusty bread and a nice onion chutney .
It’s quite rich and I wouldn’t lose any sleep if I didn’t have it again but if you eat meat I don’t think you can moralize too much about people eating it.
Bar Boulud at the Madarin Oriental used to do a burger with a layer of foie gras within. It was exceptional.
I dislike animal cruelty and usually buy higher welfare products, but on foie gras I am a massive hypocrite because it’s so damn tasty.
I’ve never eaten the liver cooked only had the pate but I can imagine it would be lovely on a burger. I wouldn’t worry about the hypocrite bit , we’re all guilty of that at times with the things we eat, or where we shop etc .
I think this tends to be the missing bit in political messaging about stuff like climate change. People respond much more to “do your best but no one is perfect”.
The problem is that what people think is their best is nowhere near good enough to be effective. People respond considerably better in terms of actual behaviour when bad stuff is taxed sufficiently to make it an occasional luxury, but good luck getting elected on that platform.
Well yes, exactly. I have this argument with younger relatives all the time. It’s all very well to take a full on “Thunberg” position, but you’ll never get elected; and if you do then you won’t get reelected and it’ll be reversed.
Democracy = pragmatism.
Which means we're probably fucked unless some sort of global eco-dictatorship can be established.
Nah, on that subject we just accept 2-2.5 degrees of warming based on current policies plus improved technology. Which is fine, unless you live in the Maldives or similar places, and we can help them.
We’ve fixed global warming.
Er, no, we really haven't. Thus far we have made virtually no impact whatsoever on the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere and are currently heading for at least 3 degrees of warming. The Maldives are already doomed, but so too are large areas of coastal plains around the world, not to mention those areas that will be made uninhabitable by heat and shifts in weather patterns. None of this will be fixed by imploring people to "do their best".
What is the timing for the demise of the Maldives out of interest.
Uninhabitable by the end of the century, most likely. Possibly a bit longer with major sea defences, but those probably won't be economically viable. In the long run, evacuation is the only realistic option.
Seriously? 80years away, possibly, a country, actually many, many tiny blips in the middle of the ocean a metre or three above sea level will apparently be submerged. At today's level of technological knowhow.
I am failing to be motivated. As is most of the rest of the planet and I can understand why.
The way to save the Maldives is to remove all the buildings and concrete and let nature build the coral reef back.
The Bahamas have survived 4000m of local sea level change by the simple expedient of growing upwards for 400 million years through ice ages and hothouse earth.
No natural succession and a coral reef will sink.
Start with the concrete runway that brings all the tourists in.
That is a fantastic response. Because it puts at odds genuine desire to cope with climate change vs the tourist dollar. Can be solved by bunging them some money which would I imagine represent 0.000000001% of global global warming expenditure.
Neil Hudson, Tory MP for Penrith (until dissolution), has been selected for Epping Forest after failing to get selected in the new constituency in his previous area.
He has links to the area though, his mother and sister live in Theydon Bois and his father was a North Weald Parish councillor
I have a degree of scepticism about the individuals behind this, but their list if ideas is more worthy of attention than anything Farage has said in the last two decades, and more likely to contribute to growth than Truss's mad flirtation with power.
Britain has been in a funk. Real GDP per capita hasn't reached its 2007 peak. Real wages have stagnated. Bills and rents are too high, and our transport infrastructure is creaking.
Lots of good ideas there. I found this chart very interesting. The rate of private housebuilding isn't low by historical standards. But the state stopped building houses. Add 150,000 houses a year built by the state and I think you'd start to fix the problem.
Yes. We need public housing. The state currently spends large amounts of money funnelling housing benefit to landlords. Let's just build council housing.
I will say, stunts like this are very often counterproductive. Although it wouldn’t be a general election without something being thrown at a politician.
Nigel Farage appears to ditch key Reform UK immigration policy during live interview. Nigel Farage appeared to ditch a key Reform UK policy live on air, admitting that his party’s plan to process asylum seekers in British Overseas Territories is “not terribly practical”.
Yet another thing the expresserati have to roll back their support for.... Brexiteers are forever retconning their own history to account for their failures and changing leadership over the years..... it is astounding to observe
The sole amusing thing about Farage's latest foray is the pathetic capitulation of the previous leader, when the blowhard announced he was taking over. RefUK are a bunch of sad cucks.
Fararge owns 53% of Reform, so controls it. If he wants to be leader he is, no point fighting him.
It’s not a proper party . Just a vehicle for Farage to peddle his brand of hate politics.
Its a proper party according to the electoral commission. Not sure why they, or anyone else, should care about your definition of a proper party. It is a vehicle for Farage, and his mission is to become leader of the Conservative party. He is bang on track.
There is a local by-election in Powys today. It is an Ind defence, there are 8 candidates with 2 Inds and 2 Jones, so a complete toss-up. On Thursday we have Lab defences in Telford&Wrekin and North Lincolnshire, 2 Con defences in North Lincolnshire and Torbay ( where the Con candidate is the wife of the local MP).
Shaheen resigns from Labour and will make an announcement tomorrow on her candidacy/next steps
No one knows who she is apart from us in here . I feel sorry for her as being a Labour candidate now given the polls and her original target meant she could have walked the election but when will politicians or those aspiring to be learn that using twitter is an accident waiting to happen . And it wasn’t just her tweeting that caused the problems .
I will say, stunts like this are very often counterproductive. Although it wouldn’t be a general election without something being thrown at a politician.
Throwing beer at someone is how you show appreciation in Clacton. Local tradition.
This bus journey is so boring I may actually fight my way through the Russian lines on the Dnieper and fly out from Volgograd rather than face doing this all again on the way back
I'd recommend against that, as the Russians deem elderly civilians legitimate targets. They might consider you worth a drone.
I’ve got official media accreditation. They wouldn’t harm a gentleman of the press. And an Englishman at that
Comments
https://x.com/Lewis_Brackpool/status/1797952922455871885
This is better:
https://tickets.railforums.co.uk/
That isn't something you can fact-check, it's a matter of opinion. That the BBC don't realise this is interesting.
As I said earlier today there are now 200 seats (their core seats) where the campaign needs to be focussed, question is are they trying to keep seats 160-200 or seats 1-50....
LBC have a recording of Tory MP Danny Kruger criticizing the government’s record on immigration .
Most of Britain doesn't have the toxic ethic and cultural issues that Rochdale has.
Two ways of following that up.
Either a truly hideous number of young women are being raped, and it's mostly being done by white people.
Or you can't scale up numbers from Rochdale to the whole country in the way you have. It would be like trying to estimate the number of wearers of red trousers in the UK by sampling at a Spectator garden party. And the 100k estimate is, at best, silly. At worst, it's deliberately nasty.
Doesn't make what happened in Rochdale any less awful. But take care how many shrouds you wave.
Likewise, if your destination is "London Underground Zone 1 (other zones are available), where a single tube journey is included in the ticket price.
Just to confirm I am not going to mention buying train tickets at the station or online for at least another 24 hours and hopefully for a lot longer.
FWIW using 2019 election data - constituencies where (a) 2016 Leave was above 60%, (b) Tory Majority below 10k (or Cons lost), and (c) Con + BXP beat Lab by 6k votes or more are:
Rother Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Ashfield, Great Grimsby, Bolsover, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Stoke-On-Trent North, Scunthorpe, Barnsley East, Hartlepool, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Redcar, Wakefield
Ashfield is already spoken for, but that'd be my risk list (obvs needs to be adjusted for boundary redrawing).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-india-69072275
Typically: A-C is cheaper than B-C, but A-C is valid via B. Or A-C is cheaper than A-B, but is valid via B.
More complex: A-D is cheaper than B-C, but A-D is valid via B and C.
You have to do your own research for this sort of thing. I found one that could save me a good few quid, but have not needed to employ it yet.
But always make sure that you have a hard copy of the itinerary that the retailer provided, especially if it is a bit of a dubious route, in order to demonstrate your validity when your ticket is checked. "I'm just following the journey that XYZ told me to make when their website sold me the ticket." Also, better to get a paper ticket is such situations, so there is no record of where you have gone through ticket barriers.
Good luck!
Perhaps a coupon election, with Refuk given a free run in at least 20 safe seats plus Clacton? Or would that not be enough?
https://metro.co.uk/2024/02/24/london-underground-fines-travel-slowly-across-city-20340117/
This is what can be avoided with a paper ticket, and why they wanted to abolish them recently, although changed their minds at the last minute after lots of people complained.
“Almost 19,000 children have been sexually groomed in England in the past year, according to official figures that have prompted warnings of an “epidemic”.”
Given that this scandal has festered for three/four decades it seems my estimate of 100,000 is almost certainly underplaying it - and maybe Sarah Champion, Labour MP for Rotherham, is nearer the target with “one million”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/grooming-child-sex-abuse-exploitation-rotherham-rochdale-police-a9215261.html
And that really is my final word on this for today. Firstly it’s too depressing. And secondly you don’t actually want to argue this, you are intellectually incapable of addressing the reality and you simply want to reinforce your comfort zone of lefty nonsense. So debate is pointless
The Bahamas have survived 4000m of local sea level change by the simple expedient of growing upwards for 400 million years through ice ages and hothouse earth.
No natural succession and a coral reef will sink.
Start with the concrete runway that brings all the tourists in.
Labour poster with Sunak in Farage's pocket. Job done. Destroys any credibility the Tories have of being a serious government.
Annual CO2 production is still rising and it’s a fair bet that the price of oil will be driven down by solar etc. it’s gonna be hard to reduce atmospheric carbon.
Plus
Check out the AMOC.
There are some unpredictable tipping points it’s well worth avoiding.
Yet another thing the expresserati have to roll back their support for.... Brexiteers are forever retconning their own history to account for their failures and changing leadership over the years..... it is astounding to observe
https://www.ft.com/content/a37dd6d6-51f8-40d4-b0d0-498fb1ac4e8a
11.6% in Sunderland Central
15.5% in Houghton & Sunderland South
So 15% would put them at the same point as they were in 2019...
But with Brexit not standing in Tory held seats in 2019 the impact is going to be hard to identify..
Britain has been in a funk. Real GDP per capita hasn't reached its 2007 peak. Real wages have stagnated. Bills and rents are too high, and our transport infrastructure is creaking.
It doesn't have to be this way. Today
@BritainRemade is launching our plan for economic growth...
https://x.com/Ben_A_Hopkinson/status/1797938075081056603
Think it will be absolutely terrible? It has to be the most right wing seats in the country. But those are the seats that Reform are also gunning for.
My very simple age-based model has the following for Sunak's last stand:
Christchurch
North Norfolk
New Forest West
West Dorset
Bexhill and Battle
If it's around 100 seats, it's:
Tatton
Fareham and Waterlooville
Lichfield
Havant
Henley and Thame
And so on.
Farage is a fraud who has never been held to account properly by the UK media . They continue to fawn over him.
He’s also a Trump supporter so beneath contempt .
“It’s pure cope to say Farage isn’t popular. He is the most popular politician in the UK - and by quite some margin. This from YouGov Q1 2024.”
https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1797975160538189834?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Bliss, far from the madding crowd’s ignoble strife.
Our current Tory MP seems to be visiting the Ice Cream shops and Cafes of the constituency.
It was briefly interrupted when a woman came on board to try and sell us live chickens. When I arrived I went on the most sustained bender of my life.
RefUK are a bunch of sad cucks.
And this is only 4-5 hours and it *should* be interesting. Crossing into Ukraine
Next time I am doing tramadol and seven vodkas beforehand
None of the online providers bother loading the Dublin-Belfast train timetable into their systems any more, so whilst you can select the route, they can't find any journey times and therefore don't let you buy a ticket. You've got to go to a ticket office and persuade them to override the journey planning system, and even then they'll usually claim that such a thing isn't possible if you try anywhere other than at a big station like Euston or St Pancras.
Annoyingly, it used to work - there'd always be at least one provider (Transport for Wales was usually a good bet) who would have the timetables loaded, but they seem to have stopped bothering in the past couple of years.
Rail ticketing systems are great when they work, but when they hit problems they quickly turn into a nightmare to sort out.
They might consider you worth a drone.
Local hands the driver a tape (OK, yes, it was a while back) in Lyon and we get French rap on loop all the way to Calais. Elf would have been preferable.
Whole journey was something like 24 hours, and we were stacked high with climbing equipment so didn't even have much legroom.
Amazed nobody got DVT.
How do people survive these 'Lochs and Glens' tours? They must be beyond awful.
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1797980355422818749?s=46
I will say, stunts like this are very often counterproductive. Although it wouldn’t be a general election without something being thrown at a politician.
The almost contemporaneous The Life and Times of David Lloyd George had one by Morricine which was arguably even better.
BTW, Whoever came up with "carbon capture" instead of "CO2 capture" should be shot.
Washington - Lab 52, Ref 17, Con 14
Sunderland Central - Lab 48, Con 17, Ref 15
Houghton - Lab 55, Ref 18, Con 14
On Thursday we have Lab defences in Telford&Wrekin and North Lincolnshire, 2 Con defences in North Lincolnshire and Torbay ( where the Con candidate is the wife of the local MP).