As mentioned above I am trying to determine the best value trading bets if there is a surge of bets on reform between now and after Friday’s Farage TV appearance in the debate.
High odds bets on Reform to get 7+ seats and to win ‘most seats without Labour’ - and then to trade out of these positions on Saturday.
Does anyone have similar proxy markets which might serve the above well?
Laying Reform 0 seats is another - sadly, I only did a small stake earlier when it was available for 1.67. Now around 3.5. Still something there I think.
Caveat to all the above is I will trade out of these positions within the week, unless something earth shattering happens like mass defections to Reform.
Lay Reform getting seats.
Lay Reform getting votes.
Basically lay Reform. Incompetent racists don't do well at General Elections in the UK.
Lay the people piling on backing Farage-mania today who are throwing their money away on a serial loser.
Like I said, I’m looking to capitalise on the momentum of bets on Farage/Reform - I’m yet to be fully convinced they will make a significant impact on polling day itself.
This is about an anticipated surge of bets following what will likely be another bad week for the Tories and Farage probably doing reasonably well on Friday’s debate - and then trading out of that position on Saturday/Sunday.
I'm seeing enough to move the probable Lab majority up to 150-175 from 75-100. Largely due to the tone-deaf and at times frankly incompetent Con GE campaign. I'm no fan of the No 10 munchkins but even I can't believe how poor they have been.
It should be noted that YouGov DO re-assign don't knows on their MRP polls. The MoreInCommon MRP was conducted through May including the pre-election period and it is pretty clear that the Cons have continued to drift since the local elections. Gaining a few Reform voters does not help if Lab have gained more.
I went for a stroll with a friend, and we brainstormed some policies the Conservatives could unveil next:
- 3 hours per week in the national curriculum to instil national pride - History lessons to focus on key events: Dunkirk, D-Day, Agincourt - Enforce the wearing of hats, like in the good old days - Make “gay” mean “happy” again - BBC to encourage traditional gender roles (e.g. female presenters to make a cup of tea for the male presenter) - 80% minimum of music played on the radio to be of British origin (excluding London) - Re-name foods: croissant to become flaky crescent, etc.
God I wish I could have joined you on that clearly hilarious and imaginative walk. What it would be to like to have friends this funny and clever. Sigh
As mentioned above I am trying to determine the best value trading bets if there is a surge of bets on reform between now and after Friday’s Farage TV appearance in the debate.
High odds bets on Reform to get 7+ seats and to win ‘most seats without Labour’ - and then to trade out of these positions on Saturday.
Does anyone have similar proxy markets which might serve the above well?
Laying Reform 0 seats is another - sadly, I only did a small stake earlier when it was available for 1.67. Now around 3.5. Still something there I think.
Caveat to all the above is I will trade out of these positions within the week, unless something earth shattering happens like mass defections to Reform.
Lay Reform getting seats.
Lay Reform getting votes.
Basically lay Reform. Incompetent racists don't do well at General Elections in the UK.
Lay the people piling on backing Farage-mania today who are throwing their money away on a serial loser.
Like I said, I’m looking to capitalise on the momentum of bets on Farage/Reform - I’m yet to be fully convinced they will make a significant impact on polling day itself.
This is about an anticipated surge of bets following what will likely be another bad week for the Tories and Farage probably doing reasonably well on Friday’s debate - and then trading out of that position on Saturday/Sunday.
Yes, people are placing bets on Farage/Reform.
The way to capitalise on that is by laying those bets, not doing so yourself.
When people are making bad bets, the profitable thing to do is to lay them, not join in.
“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
If the Tories try and suck up to Faragists, they deserve to be annihilated.
If it had been the plan from 18 months ago maybe it would have worked. I think it would have worked better than appealing to centrists at this point.
But right now, after a meandering, inconsistent policy offer and a leader whom the Faragist wing of the Tories hate? Not going to work, and so may just further drive a wedge between the wings of the party.
I'm seeing enough to move the probable Lab majority up to 150-175 from 75-100. Largely due to the tone-deaf and at times frankly incompetent Con GE campaign. I'm no fan of the No 10 munchkins but even I can't believe how poor they have been.
It should be noted that YouGov DO re-assign don't knows on their MRP polls. The MoreInCommon MRP was conducted through May including the pre-election period and it is pretty clear that the Cons have continued to drift since the local elections. Gaining a few Reform voters does not help if Lab have gained more.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Just wondering which is the bigger crisis for Labour - 20mph zones (esp. now the locals have started deciding they quite like them after all, and while we await the first deaths in 20 restored to 30 mph) or this?
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
You keep raising Wales 20mph zones which the Welsh government itself has changed and frankly is not an issue now
THinking of them across the UK. It was such a disaster if you recall. Remember that the Hartlepool Tories had to intervene. Not to mention the Scottish LDs leader - though tbf to him that was in Edinburgh.
I have no interest in the rest of the UK just Wales where common sense seems to have resolved the issue
Oh, I'll remind you of that when you express any interest in the SNP.
Er, you mean LTAs? I didn't know Wales was somewhere where the normal laws of physics and sociology didn't apply, so that evidence from beyond Chester or Ross was irrelevant.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
But they know better than anyone how they would feel about it happening now, and so despise the idea of it happening to people of their age in future.
Nonsense. It's an artefact of where they are generally on the 'progressive' political scale and nothing to do with 'youth solidarity'
I don't say that the rating is a one to one correlation with the national service policy. But it is patently absurd to suggest there's no impact of the policy in encouraging and reinforcing the poll rating because they 'won't be impacted by it'.
Most people are not impacted by most policies, they can still react to it, and the idea young people in particular would not react as a result of a policy designed to impact their cohort, even if not specifically them right this instance, is simply absurd.
The bigger impact, by far in my opinion, is that younger voters are generally more progressive. The policy polling done on NS does not imply it would shift 18 to 24 sentiment in any way, it was already heavily pro Labour, anti Tory. Hence its got little or nothing to do with NS and everything to do with that just being how the youth are voting and this is a massive outlier of that sentiment.
Editb- NS polling has more 18 to 24 in support than 18 to 24 Tory VI in polling
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
If you're helping the Tories could you ask them what their last PPB was all about. I thought it was for labour. Are they doing it in-house?
You know a Portillo Pot is one you piss out from, not into?
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
It's certainly noticeable that so many of our PB Tories have told us that they've been finding the campaign dull!
What if Con voters remain bored enough to stay at home on election day? Could differential turnout actually boost Labour for a change?
Labour are home and dry and if today's polls are accurate with a huge majority
But today's polls are now irrelevant.
We need to assess the impact that today's announcement. It may take a few days to impact, and a few more to settle down, but the old has just been torn up.
We've had some predictions of possible impacts already on this thread:
1. The Tories might damage themselves further over the question of whether to do a deal with UKIP, and what terms might be acceptable.
2. A 'Faragasm' might suck votes from both Con and Lab in parts of the red wall.
3. The Lib Dems in the blue wall / home counties might be boosted, hitting Con hardest but also limiting Lab to a 1997-style majority rather than anything bigger.
What else do PBers think might change as a result of today?
Edited to add: Er, do a deal with Farage, not UKIP!
On 1, it's too late to do a deal but there is a risk that the Tories blunder off to the right and alienate their remaining moderate voters without gaining any votes from Reform, because they all love Farage and prefer to the real thing to a Sunak impersonation.
There is also a danger that the Tory campaign degenerates into farce as recriminations fly around and MPs in formerly safe seats do their own thing in a spirit of 'sauve qui peut'.
2. Even if it does, it will have no impact on seats as it is unlikely to hit Labour more than Tory in marginals. Labour may lose some votes in places like Barnsley, but they are so far ahead it won't matter.
3. Maybe, but I don't see that an improved LD performance in Blue Wall seats makes any difference to the Labour majority. More likely is that a depressed Tory vote in Blue Wall seats leads to a few unexpected narrow Labour wins in formerly safe seats where there is no obvious challenger and votes just go with the national flow.
Or maybe Farage comes under some proper scrutiny without the single issue of Brexit to use as a screen, and after a bounce in the polls next week support gradually deflates during the rest of the campaign, and the effect of all your three suggestions remains but becomes much reduced.
I went for a stroll with a friend, and we brainstormed some policies the Conservatives could unveil next:
- 3 hours per week in the national curriculum to instil national pride - History lessons to focus on key events: Dunkirk, D-Day, Agincourt - Enforce the wearing of hats, like in the good old days - Make “gay” mean “happy” again - BBC to encourage traditional gender roles (e.g. female presenters to make a cup of tea for the male presenter) - 80% minimum of music played on the radio to be of British origin (excluding London) - Re-name foods: croissant to become flaky crescent, etc.
God I wish I could have joined you on that clearly hilarious and imaginative walk. What it would be to like to have friends this funny and clever. Sigh
I went for a stroll with a friend, and we brainstormed some policies the Conservatives could unveil next:
- 3 hours per week in the national curriculum to instil national pride - History lessons to focus on key events: Dunkirk, D-Day, Agincourt - Enforce the wearing of hats, like in the good old days - Make “gay” mean “happy” again - BBC to encourage traditional gender roles (e.g. female presenters to make a cup of tea for the male presenter) - 80% minimum of music played on the radio to be of British origin (excluding London) - Re-name foods: croissant to become flaky crescent, etc.
National service to include gender monitors for changing rooms and lavs would work I think. Well, work in the sense of taking Team Tory’s increasingly demented fancy.
A croissant could become a French rowie? No, that's still too weird and furrin for the Conservatives.
The Tories have spent the last couple of years raising the salience of precisely those issues where they are vulnerable and which Farage will exploit with populist nonsense. It has been an extraordinary lesson in how not to do politics.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
No, the secret of his success is moaning about the modern world to a bunch of other pub bores, and never having run even a whelk stall. It's easy being a critic, hard actually doing anything.
TBF to the gent, wasn't he a commodities trader for some years?
As mentioned above I am trying to determine the best value trading bets if there is a surge of bets on reform between now and after Friday’s Farage TV appearance in the debate.
High odds bets on Reform to get 7+ seats and to win ‘most seats without Labour’ - and then to trade out of these positions on Saturday.
Does anyone have similar proxy markets which might serve the above well?
Laying Reform 0 seats is another - sadly, I only did a small stake earlier when it was available for 1.67. Now around 3.5. Still something there I think.
Caveat to all the above is I will trade out of these positions within the week, unless something earth shattering happens like mass defections to Reform.
Lay Reform getting seats.
Lay Reform getting votes.
Basically lay Reform. Incompetent racists don't do well at General Elections in the UK.
Lay the people piling on backing Farage-mania today who are throwing their money away on a serial loser.
Like I said, I’m looking to capitalise on the momentum of bets on Farage/Reform - I’m yet to be fully convinced they will make a significant impact on polling day itself.
This is about an anticipated surge of bets following what will likely be another bad week for the Tories and Farage probably doing reasonably well on Friday’s debate - and then trading out of that position on Saturday/Sunday.
Yes, people are placing bets on Farage/Reform.
The way to capitalise on that is by laying those bets, not doing so yourself.
When people are making bad bets, the profitable thing to do is to lay them, not join in.
That may be a good strategy later on in the campaign but I cannot see the Reform odds lengthening, nor the Tory odds shortening, across the rest of this week. IMO that would come later in the campaign.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
But they know better than anyone how they would feel about it happening now, and so despise the idea of it happening to people of their age in future.
Not to mention they'll have younger siblings/friends/acquaintances etc whom it could be done to.
Gen X have kids, Boomers have grandkids, the Lost generation have great grandkids. It's about age and the progressive scale.
Millennials have kids.
Well, yes, I was generalising
But that's the point, in general most kids of Gen X will already be too old to be affected by this policy.
I'm absolutely livid at the idea of this hateful policy and would not want my kids affected by it. I'm a Millennial that has voted Tory in every election apart from my first in 2001.
I went for a stroll with a friend, and we brainstormed some policies the Conservatives could unveil next:
- 3 hours per week in the national curriculum to instil national pride - History lessons to focus on key events: Dunkirk, D-Day, Agincourt - Enforce the wearing of hats, like in the good old days - Make “gay” mean “happy” again - BBC to encourage traditional gender roles (e.g. female presenters to make a cup of tea for the male presenter) - 80% minimum of music played on the radio to be of British origin (excluding London) - Re-name foods: croissant to become flaky crescent, etc.
God I wish I could have joined you on that clearly hilarious and imaginative walk. What it would be to like to have friends this funny and clever. Sigh
...or indeed just to have any friends, eh?
I’ll have you know I am now very good mates with Exobot 776.49c <[g oo2 and they is very funny
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 23m Tory campaign is on the brink of complete collapse tonight.
Evergreen Tweet.
Could have been posted any day of this campaign.
True, but there comes a point where enough flakes flake off that the remnant really does collapse.
I don't think any of us know, or can know, where the FPTP cliff edge for the Conservatives is- from "bad but recoverable" at 150 or so seats, to "utter irrelevance" below 50 seats.
Or when "hang together so we don't hang separately" changes to "sauve qui peut". But the Conservatives are close to that precipice, and they're closer now than they were four hours ago.
If tomorrow's debate doesn't change the story (and how?), what's left?
I'm seeing enough to move the probable Lab majority up to 150-175 from 75-100. Largely due to the tone-deaf and at times frankly incompetent Con GE campaign. I'm no fan of the No 10 munchkins but even I can't believe how poor they have been.
It should be noted that YouGov DO re-assign don't knows on their MRP polls. The MoreInCommon MRP was conducted through May including the pre-election period and it is pretty clear that the Cons have continued to drift since the local elections. Gaining a few Reform voters does not help if Lab have gained more.
Cons on 150 looks about right to me.
Good post. Well argued. Sensible.
I predicted
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
From
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
Today’s MRPs with far wider polling gaps are spectacularly rubbish with how effectively 60% LLG will tactically vote in this Genny Lec, despite all the evidence from all the actual elections this parliament. If these MRPs are in paper copy, drop them in a bin.
PS this is the first time I have used the phrase Genny Lec, I dedicate this one to Anabob.
Anyone know when postal votes will start going out?
The deadline for applying for a postal vote is the 19th June. You can only apply for a replacement postal vote, for those lost in the post, from 28th June.
The Labour Party have a guide to postal voting that says, "postal voters will usually start to arrive a couple of weeks before polling day."
The House of Commons website has some key dates for the election, and there's doesn't seem to be any deadline in law/regulations for when postal voters have to be issued by, as there isn't one in their calendar. So I expect it will vary between local authorities.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 23m Tory campaign is on the brink of complete collapse tonight.
Evergreen Tweet.
Could have been posted any day of this campaign.
True, but there comes a point where enough flakes flake off that the remnant really does collapse.
I don't think any of us know, or can know, where the FPTP cliff edge for the Conservatives is- from "bad but recoverable" at 150 or so seats, to "utter irrelevance" below 50 seats.
Or when "hang together so we don't hang separately" changes to "sauve qui peut". But the Conservatives are close to that precipice, and they're closer now than they were four hours ago.
If tomorrow's debate doesn't change the story (and how?), what's left?
As long as they remain the #2 party in local government, and the #1 right-wing party in the House of Commons, they have everything they need for survival. Losing official opposition status would severely stunt their regrowth, but would require a worse outcome than even the worst projections, and parties like the Canadian Liberals have bounced back from third position to government in recent history.
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
As mentioned above I am trying to determine the best value trading bets if there is a surge of bets on reform between now and after Friday’s Farage TV appearance in the debate.
High odds bets on Reform to get 7+ seats and to win ‘most seats without Labour’ - and then to trade out of these positions on Saturday.
Does anyone have similar proxy markets which might serve the above well?
Laying Reform 0 seats is another - sadly, I only did a small stake earlier when it was available for 1.67. Now around 3.5. Still something there I think.
Caveat to all the above is I will trade out of these positions within the week, unless something earth shattering happens like mass defections to Reform.
Lay Reform getting seats.
Lay Reform getting votes.
Basically lay Reform. Incompetent racists don't do well at General Elections in the UK.
Lay the people piling on backing Farage-mania today who are throwing their money away on a serial loser.
Like I said, I’m looking to capitalise on the momentum of bets on Farage/Reform - I’m yet to be fully convinced they will make a significant impact on polling day itself.
This is about an anticipated surge of bets following what will likely be another bad week for the Tories and Farage probably doing reasonably well on Friday’s debate - and then trading out of that position on Saturday/Sunday.
Free tip: you're generally much better off trying to fade moves by the uninformed than trying to predict them occurring.
I'm seeing enough to move the probable Lab majority up to 150-175 from 75-100. Largely due to the tone-deaf and at times frankly incompetent Con GE campaign. I'm no fan of the No 10 munchkins but even I can't believe how poor they have been.
It should be noted that YouGov DO re-assign don't knows on their MRP polls. The MoreInCommon MRP was conducted through May including the pre-election period and it is pretty clear that the Cons have continued to drift since the local elections. Gaining a few Reform voters does not help if Lab have gained more.
Cons on 150 looks about right to me.
Good post. Well argued. Sensible.
I predicted
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
From
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
Today’s MRPs with far wider polling gaps are spectacularly rubbish with how effectively 60% LLG will tactically vote in this Genny Lec, despite all the evidence from all the actual elections this parliament. If these MRPs are in paper copy, drop them in a bin.
PS this is the first time I have used the phrase Genny Lec, I dedicate this one to Anabob.
CON 180 LAB 379 on a 33-39 split is quite plausible cos we know the swing will be greater in the marginals.
In 1997 it was CON 165 LAB 419 on a 11% LAB lead for this reason.
Pesto is often wayward but a really good piece here:
NIGEL FARAGE’s MISSION IS TO DESTROY THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY
'The Tory Party’s response to Farage taking direct control of Reform and becoming the Clacton candidate is to fundamentally misunderstand him.
A Tory spokesman warns he is handing Starmer a blank cheque by undermining the Tories.
But Farage said on the Peston show last week that he could not care less about the damage to the Conservatives, because he is convinced they have lost, with or without the challenge of Reform.
Farage is contemptuous of the Conservative Party. He told me the election was already effectively over - and the latest YouGov MRP poll suggests Sunak has more than a mountain to climb - such that Labour would inevitably win.
With that conviction, all Farage cares about, he said, is that the right wing in politics should regroup and rebuild in the aftermath.
He said he does not want to reconfigure and rebuild the Conservative Party from within, whatever Tory MPs say about welcoming him to their ranks.
Farage believes the Tory Party will break up, and that Reform is therefore the vehicle by which a right-of-centre party will rise again.
He also said that there is no way he can be bought off by Sunak, since he broadly believes the country went to the dogs after he stood down candidates in 2019 for Boris Johnson.
The only deal Farage would contemplate, he said, would be Tory candidates being forced to stand down by Sunak in favour of Reform. That is never going to happen, he conceded.
So an election campaign that initially looked like the PM paddling in a small boat into a storm now looks like him heading straight into a hurricane.'
I'm seeing enough to move the probable Lab majority up to 150-175 from 75-100. Largely due to the tone-deaf and at times frankly incompetent Con GE campaign. I'm no fan of the No 10 munchkins but even I can't believe how poor they have been.
It should be noted that YouGov DO re-assign don't knows on their MRP polls. The MoreInCommon MRP was conducted through May including the pre-election period and it is pretty clear that the Cons have continued to drift since the local elections. Gaining a few Reform voters does not help if Lab have gained more.
Cons on 150 looks about right to me.
Good post. Well argued. Sensible.
I predicted
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
From
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
Today’s MRPs with far wider polling gaps are spectacularly rubbish with how effectively 60% LLG will tactically vote in this Genny Lec, despite all the evidence from all the actual elections this parliament. If these MRPs are in paper copy, drop them in a bin.
PS this is the first time I have used the phrase Genny Lec, I dedicate this one to Anabob.
I don't think your seat totals will be wide of the mark (unless...) but do you wish to revise your percentages, particularly REF?
FWIW I would have predicted 4-5 before today, but I have always said if Farage re-entered the ring then all bets are off.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 23m Tory campaign is on the brink of complete collapse tonight.
Evergreen Tweet.
Could have been posted any day of this campaign.
True, but there comes a point where enough flakes flake off that the remnant really does collapse.
I don't think any of us know, or can know, where the FPTP cliff edge for the Conservatives is- from "bad but recoverable" at 150 or so seats, to "utter irrelevance" below 50 seats.
Or when "hang together so we don't hang separately" changes to "sauve qui peut". But the Conservatives are close to that precipice, and they're closer now than they were four hours ago.
If tomorrow's debate doesn't change the story (and how?), what's left?
As long as they remain the #2 party in local government, and the #1 right-wing party in the House of Commons, they have everything they need for survival. Losing official opposition status would severely stunt their regrowth, but would require a worse outcome than even the worst projections, and parties like the Canadian Liberals have bounced back from third position to government in recent history.
Who is the second party in local government? And on what measure?
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
None of the indies or workers are being properly taken into account despite the Locals and mayoralties. Adjust expectations according to your own research
Let's politely call their previous effort an outlier, and discuss 'the herding effect', without naming names.
Anyway, they're all pants now. Wait three days until we see the Nigel effect and we can start talking realistic numbers again, maybe a week or so after.
Ok, footy time. I'm on goals and multi-corners. Funny looking team though.
As mentioned above I am trying to determine the best value trading bets if there is a surge of bets on reform between now and after Friday’s Farage TV appearance in the debate.
High odds bets on Reform to get 7+ seats and to win ‘most seats without Labour’ - and then to trade out of these positions on Saturday.
Does anyone have similar proxy markets which might serve the above well?
Laying Reform 0 seats is another - sadly, I only did a small stake earlier when it was available for 1.67. Now around 3.5. Still something there I think.
Caveat to all the above is I will trade out of these positions within the week, unless something earth shattering happens like mass defections to Reform.
Lay Reform getting seats.
Lay Reform getting votes.
Basically lay Reform. Incompetent racists don't do well at General Elections in the UK.
Lay the people piling on backing Farage-mania today who are throwing their money away on a serial loser.
Like I said, I’m looking to capitalise on the momentum of bets on Farage/Reform - I’m yet to be fully convinced they will make a significant impact on polling day itself.
This is about an anticipated surge of bets following what will likely be another bad week for the Tories and Farage probably doing reasonably well on Friday’s debate - and then trading out of that position on Saturday/Sunday.
Free tip: you're generally much better off trying to fade moves by the uninformed than trying to predict them occurring.
Have done so reasonably well so far by laying Reform already before today! So this is more to take advantage of the position I’ve built to have some fun. But I accept that you are right re: fading the uninformed is much more reliable.
I’m just wondering where others are currently seeking value. There has been a ton of it today for those who had time to sit on the Exchange throughout the day.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 23m Tory campaign is on the brink of complete collapse tonight.
Evergreen Tweet.
Could have been posted any day of this campaign.
True, but there comes a point where enough flakes flake off that the remnant really does collapse.
I don't think any of us know, or can know, where the FPTP cliff edge for the Conservatives is- from "bad but recoverable" at 150 or so seats, to "utter irrelevance" below 50 seats.
Or when "hang together so we don't hang separately" changes to "sauve qui peut". But the Conservatives are close to that precipice, and they're closer now than they were four hours ago.
If tomorrow's debate doesn't change the story (and how?), what's left?
As long as they remain the #2 party in local government, and the #1 right-wing party in the House of Commons, they have everything they need for survival. Losing official opposition status would severely stunt their regrowth, but would require a worse outcome than even the worst projections, and parties like the Canadian Liberals have bounced back from third position to government in recent history.
Who is the second party in local government? And on what measure?
The Tory party are a complete bunch of No. 2s at present.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Sure, there are always going to be a few followers of people like Yaxley-Lennon or Andrew Tate*, but not enough for that to be a winning strategy.
*Who is a Muslim convert incidentally, and more a misogynist than race warrior.
I went for a stroll with a friend, and we brainstormed some policies the Conservatives could unveil next:
- 3 hours per week in the national curriculum to instil national pride - History lessons to focus on key events: Dunkirk, D-Day, Agincourt - Enforce the wearing of hats, like in the good old days - Make “gay” mean “happy” again - BBC to encourage traditional gender roles (e.g. female presenters to make a cup of tea for the male presenter) - 80% minimum of music played on the radio to be of British origin (excluding London) - Re-name foods: croissant to become flaky crescent, etc.
God I wish I could have joined you on that clearly hilarious and imaginative walk. What it would be to like to have friends this funny and clever. Sigh
This MRP frankly shows how absurd the other one was. The lead is even greater but the Tories win 3x as many seats! 66 was just ludicrous. Don't know what had gone wrong there. These are much more believable.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Just wondering which is the bigger crisis for Labour - 20mph zones (esp. now the locals have started deciding they quite like them after all, and while we await the first deaths in 20 restored to 30 mph) or this?
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
Is there data on that?
(As a contrast there is currently a large LTN in Exeter at risk of being cancelled.
All the usual poisonous local politics, but the 'consultation' was 80% against continuing.
It's a strange one - an LTN with 17k people in it, which seems impractically large to me. Better to be smaller in several pieces with physical modal filters like every new housing estate snice 1965, rather driving it from technology.)
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
I see one of their candidates contested the same seat for UKIP a few elections back, which is an interesting journey.
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 23m Tory campaign is on the brink of complete collapse tonight.
Evergreen Tweet.
Could have been posted any day of this campaign.
True, but there comes a point where enough flakes flake off that the remnant really does collapse.
I don't think any of us know, or can know, where the FPTP cliff edge for the Conservatives is- from "bad but recoverable" at 150 or so seats, to "utter irrelevance" below 50 seats.
Or when "hang together so we don't hang separately" changes to "sauve qui peut". But the Conservatives are close to that precipice, and they're closer now than they were four hours ago.
If tomorrow's debate doesn't change the story (and how?), what's left?
As long as they remain the #2 party in local government, and the #1 right-wing party in the House of Commons, they have everything they need for survival. Losing official opposition status would severely stunt their regrowth, but would require a worse outcome than even the worst projections, and parties like the Canadian Liberals have bounced back from third position to government in recent history.
A party is only held together by a group of people wanting it to do so. If the Tories have a catastrophic election, and some decide to wander over to Labour, and others decide to throw their lot in with Farage et al, there is no reason why councillors will hang around under the Tory brand.
I happen to think this is all a bit unlikely and the Tory Party will survive, but it has become much less of a certainty in recent days. I would also say that there’s no reason why the Party has to remain the Tories. It’s entirely possible they could merge with other forces to become a new brand. Given they are held in such low regard, it’s not impossible that will happen in the coming years anyway.
just reached the £500 total bets placed on GE 24 - been betting on it for 2 years - Anyway I only bet with fixed odds bookies now so no spread betting or betfair .Anyway full list from when started betting
stake odds skybet Lab to win Portsmouth North 20 10/11 LD to get under 40.5 seats 20 Evens LD to gat 2nd most seats 10 8/1 Reform to get 1 or 2 seats 10 4/1 Lab to get less votes than 2017 40 8/1 SNP less than 20 seats 30 8/1 Lab to win 400 plus seats 10 6/1 LD to win over 40 seats 20 2/1 Con to lose 201 seats or more 30 10/11
bet365 Con between 50 -99 seats 20 4/1 Cons 0-49 seats 10 25/1
Ladbrokes Galloway to win a seat 10 3/1 Reform under 9.5% 20 3/4 SNP more than con 2 35/1 Con to lose 201 seats 30 33/20 Lab 25 seat maj 30 5/11 SNP less than 20 seats 10 23/10 Lab 25 seat maj 30 7/10 Lab majority 130 10/11
William hill SNP most scot seats 20 100/30 Con lost 51-100 seats 5 25/1
This MRP frankly shows how absurd the other one was. The lead is even greater but the Tories win 3x as many seats! 66 was just ludicrous. Don't know what had gone wrong there. These are much more believable.
looking into the detail there's a lot of seats which they refer to as 'tossup':(<5%)
Anyone know when postal votes will start going out?
Typically land two to two and a half weeks before polling day, often around that weekend
One of my neighbours kids works for Charnwood Council and getting loads of overtime this month on Registering voters, prepping Poll cards and postal votes, so not long to go now.
Let's politely call their previous effort an outlier, and discuss 'the herding effect', without naming names.
Anyway, they're all pants now. Wait three days until we see the Nigel effect and we can start talking realistic numbers again, maybe a week or so after.
Ok, footy time. I'm on goals and multi-corners. Funny looking team though.
Firstly we can be far more to polite JLP than that ill informed mocking tone. Go back a few headers they are on the right column with Opinium. Opinium have now scrapped swing back filter, like them JLP might have given us benefit of one on, one off in quick succession.
The team is a “last look at you before I send you home because a defence that was going to cost us this tourney anyway is now proper crocked anyhow, so let’s have a look as I might actually have to take one or two of you to warm the bench.”
Another reason why England are on hiding to nothing in this tournament is because they can’t play all the best players in the same team, real quality will start on bench as there only so many number 10s or wide forwards you can have out there at once, shoe horn a Foden out left for example and you only get half the player, a Fod, or even worse just a Fo.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.
The Representation of the People (England and Wales) Regulations 2001 - Section 71
no postal ballot paper (and declaration of identity) shall be issued until after 5 p.m. on the eleventh day before the date of the poll (computed in accordance with regulation 56(6) above).
So they cannot go out before Wednesday 19th June at 5pm (the 11 days is working days) so practically they will go out Thursday 20th/Friday 21st with maybe some people who applied very close to the deadline getting theirs sent early the following week.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Just wondering which is the bigger crisis for Labour - 20mph zones (esp. now the locals have started deciding they quite like them after all, and while we await the first deaths in 20 restored to 30 mph) or this?
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
Is there data on that?
(As a contrast there is currently a large LTN in Exeter at risk of being cancelled.
All the usual poisonous local politics, but the 'consultation' was 80% against continuing.
It's a strange one - an LTN with 17k people in it, which seems impractically large to me. Better to be smaller in several pieces with physical modal filters like every new housing estate snice 1965, rather driving it from technology.)
EATF funding rounds encouraged councils to go big, quickly. It's a similar story in Oxford - it would have caused much less heartache to put in LTNs one-by-one, as they historically have been, rather than slapping them all down in a couple of tranches.
There was a food festival on Magdalen Road, the achingly trendy East Oxford street with an LTN, last weekend. The anti-LTN party had a stall. At a festival that was only made possible by an LTN.
I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.
The other problem is that a lot of people are probably shrugging their shoulders at that.
When even those on the right are expecting and not fearing a Labour government, these kinds of threats are going to ring hollow.
Comments
This is about an anticipated surge of bets following what will likely be another bad week for the Tories and Farage probably doing reasonably well on Friday’s debate - and then trading out of that position on Saturday/Sunday.
It should be noted that YouGov DO re-assign don't knows on their MRP polls. The MoreInCommon MRP was conducted through May including the pre-election period and it is pretty clear that the Cons have continued to drift since the local elections. Gaining a few Reform voters does not help if Lab have gained more.
Cons on 150 looks about right to me.
@montie
·
3h
THIS IS THE WORST POSSIBLE NIGHTMARE FOR THE CONSERVATIVES.
The party should have dumped Sunak.
https://x.com/montie/status/1797649191650681152
It's about age and the progressive scale.
The way to capitalise on that is by laying those bets, not doing so yourself.
When people are making bad bets, the profitable thing to do is to lay them, not join in.
But right now, after a meandering, inconsistent policy offer and a leader whom the Faragist wing of the Tories hate? Not going to work, and so may just further drive a wedge between the wings of the party.
Er, you mean LTAs? I didn't know Wales was somewhere where the normal laws of physics and sociology didn't apply, so that evidence from beyond Chester or Ross was irrelevant.
@DPJHodges
·
23m
Tory campaign is on the brink of complete collapse tonight.
Editb- NS polling has more 18 to 24 in support than 18 to 24 Tory VI in polling
Could have been posted any day of this campaign.
Because expectation is so low, they will almost certainly appeal on the upside. But that’s beside the point.
With a c. 150 seat majority they would be strongly odds-on for a second term.
So think 9-10 years. 2033-2034. That’s a long time in politics.
There is also a danger that the Tory campaign degenerates into farce as recriminations fly around and MPs in formerly safe seats do their own thing in a spirit of 'sauve qui peut'.
2. Even if it does, it will have no impact on seats as it is unlikely to hit Labour more than Tory in marginals. Labour may lose some votes in places like Barnsley, but they are so far ahead it won't matter.
3. Maybe, but I don't see that an improved LD performance in Blue Wall seats makes any difference to the Labour majority. More likely is that a depressed Tory vote in Blue Wall seats leads to a few unexpected narrow Labour wins in formerly safe seats where there is no obvious challenger and votes just go with the national flow.
Or maybe Farage comes under some proper scrutiny without the single issue of Brexit to use as a screen, and after a bounce in the polls next week support gradually deflates during the rest of the campaign, and the effect of all your three suggestions remains but becomes much reduced.
The Starmer Playbook?
x
@RichardNabavi
The Tories have spent the last couple of years raising the salience of precisely those issues where they are vulnerable and which Farage will exploit with populist nonsense. It has been an extraordinary lesson in how not to do politics.
https://x.com/RichardNabavi/status/1797695927752470695
====
I dont think Richard has posted on PB for a while?
I'm absolutely livid at the idea of this hateful policy and would not want my kids affected by it. I'm a Millennial that has voted Tory in every election apart from my first in 2001.
Quite a day in election politics today.
Clacton isn't in Hackney. But it has in common with Clapton that Farage isn't going to be their MP. Maybe not much else.
*Labour lead up to 17 points*
Change on last week in brackets
LAB: 43% (+3)
CON: 26% (-2)
REF: 12% (-)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-2)
I don't think any of us know, or can know, where the FPTP cliff edge for the Conservatives is- from "bad but recoverable" at 150 or so seats, to "utter irrelevance" below 50 seats.
Or when "hang together so we don't hang separately" changes to "sauve qui peut". But the Conservatives are close to that precipice, and they're closer now than they were four hours ago.
If tomorrow's debate doesn't change the story (and how?), what's left?
Various developments in the world of science and popular mechanics will render this prediction moot, at best
Let’s put it like that
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
From
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
Today’s MRPs with far wider polling gaps are spectacularly rubbish with how effectively 60% LLG will tactically vote in this Genny Lec, despite all the evidence from all the actual elections this parliament. If these MRPs are in paper copy, drop them in a bin.
PS this is the first time I have used the phrase Genny Lec, I dedicate this one to Anabob.
The Labour Party have a guide to postal voting that says, "postal voters will usually start to arrive a couple of weeks before polling day."
The House of Commons website has some key dates for the election, and there's doesn't seem to be any deadline in law/regulations for when postal voters have to be issued by, as there isn't one in their calendar. So I expect it will vary between local authorities.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/timetable-for-the-2024-general-election/
https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/postal-votes-for-general-election-2024-register-online-deadlines-holiday/#replacement
@TalkTV
·
47m
Talk’s international editor Isabel Oakeshott says Richard Tice “wanted” to be replaced by Nigel Farage as leader of Reform UK.
https://clarkesworldmagazine.com/watts_01_10/
First one of the campaign I think?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
Free tip: you're generally much better off trying to fade moves by the uninformed than trying to predict them occurring.
In 1997 it was CON 165 LAB 419 on a 11% LAB lead for this reason.
NIGEL FARAGE’s MISSION IS TO DESTROY THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY
'The Tory Party’s response to Farage taking direct control of Reform and becoming the Clacton candidate is to fundamentally misunderstand him.
A Tory spokesman warns he is handing Starmer a blank cheque by undermining the Tories.
But Farage said on the Peston show last week that he could not care less about the damage to the Conservatives, because he is convinced they have lost, with or without the challenge of Reform.
Farage is contemptuous of the Conservative Party. He told me the election was already effectively over - and the latest YouGov MRP poll suggests Sunak has more than a mountain to climb - such that Labour would inevitably win.
With that conviction, all Farage cares about, he said, is that the right wing in politics should regroup and rebuild in the aftermath.
He said he does not want to reconfigure and rebuild the Conservative Party from within, whatever Tory MPs say about welcoming him to their ranks.
Farage believes the Tory Party will break up, and that Reform is therefore the vehicle by which a right-of-centre party will rise again.
He also said that there is no way he can be bought off by Sunak, since he broadly believes the country went to the dogs after he stood down candidates in 2019 for Boris Johnson.
The only deal Farage would contemplate, he said, would be Tory candidates being forced to stand down by Sunak in favour of Reform. That is never going to happen, he conceded.
So an election campaign that initially looked like the PM paddling in a small boat into a storm now looks like him heading straight into a hurricane.'
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-06-03/nigel-farages-mission-is-to-destroy-the-tory-party
FWIW I would have predicted 4-5 before today, but I have always said if Farage re-entered the ring then all bets are off.
I loved the idea!
We can't all be ballroom dancers
Let's politely call their previous effort an outlier, and discuss 'the herding effect', without naming names.
Anyway, they're all pants now. Wait three days until we see the Nigel effect and we can start talking realistic numbers again, maybe a week or so after.
Ok, footy time. I'm on goals and multi-corners. Funny looking team though.
I’m just wondering where others are currently seeking value. There has been a ton of it today for those who had time to sit on the Exchange throughout the day.
You are a superb bellwether.
Whatever Leondamus predicts we can all be sure that the exact opposite will be true
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Sure, there are always going to be a few followers of people like Yaxley-Lennon or Andrew Tate*, but not enough for that to be a winning strategy.
*Who is a Muslim convert incidentally, and more a misogynist than race warrior.
Well I've bet on Con seats to be between 150-250 at 4/1 which doesn't feel too bad to me.
(Sensible) comments welcome.
Montie hasn’t been relevant since IDS lost his position 20 years ago…
(As a contrast there is currently a large LTN in Exeter at risk of being cancelled.
All the usual poisonous local politics, but the 'consultation' was 80% against continuing.
It's a strange one - an LTN with 17k people in it, which seems impractically large to me. Better to be smaller in several pieces with physical modal filters like every new housing estate snice 1965, rather driving it from technology.)
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
I happen to think this is all a bit unlikely and the Tory Party will survive, but it has become much less of a certainty in recent days. I would also say that there’s no reason why the Party has to remain the Tories. It’s entirely possible they could merge with other forces to become a new brand. Given they are held in such low regard, it’s not impossible that will happen in the coming years anyway.
stake odds
skybet
Lab to win Portsmouth North 20 10/11
LD to get under 40.5 seats 20 Evens
LD to gat 2nd most seats 10 8/1
Reform to get 1 or 2 seats 10 4/1
Lab to get less votes than 2017 40 8/1
SNP less than 20 seats 30 8/1
Lab to win 400 plus seats 10 6/1
LD to win over 40 seats 20 2/1
Con to lose 201 seats or more 30 10/11
bet365
Con between 50 -99 seats 20 4/1
Cons 0-49 seats 10 25/1
Ladbrokes
Galloway to win a seat 10 3/1
Reform under 9.5% 20 3/4
SNP more than con 2 35/1
Con to lose 201 seats 30 33/20
Lab 25 seat maj 30 5/11
SNP less than 20 seats 10 23/10
Lab 25 seat maj 30 7/10
Lab majority 130 10/11
William hill
SNP most scot seats 20 100/30
Con lost 51-100 seats 5 25/1
Safe Likely Lean Tossup
Labour 215 113 44 50
Conservatives 0 38 40 62
Lib Dems 12 14 10 12
Green 0 2 0 0
Plaid 1 1 0 0
SNP 0 6 4 7
if they lost most of the tossup seats they could be in a similar position to the other one.
As always, we need need more data!
The team is a “last look at you before I send you home because a defence that was going to cost us this tourney anyway is now proper crocked anyhow, so let’s have a look as I might actually have to take one or two of you to warm the bench.”
Another reason why England are on hiding to nothing in this tournament is because they can’t play all the best players in the same team, real quality will start on bench as there only so many number 10s or wide forwards you can have out there at once, shoe horn a Foden out left for example and you only get half the player, a Fod, or even worse just a Fo.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
There was a food festival on Magdalen Road, the achingly trendy East Oxford street with an LTN, last weekend. The anti-LTN party had a stall. At a festival that was only made possible by an LTN.
When even those on the right are expecting and not fearing a Labour government, these kinds of threats are going to ring hollow.
Much more entertaining, with similar results