The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Fearsome's chucking around of the word 'extremist' about those who have a mild objection to hundreds of thousands in net migration each year and want to see the Government make a good fist of Brexit is sheer projection. It speaks of nothing but his own sweaty panic that somebody might offer voters right of centre policies and then actually enact them.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
I'm going against the consensus. Farage will have an unexpected effect. What's flakier, the core of an unpopular party or the mile wide, inch deep votes of the not particularly liked alternative?
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.
Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
The Conservatives don't want to follow the US Republican example of turning politics into a pissing contest.
But, actions have to match words. You can't offer your supporters right wing words, while as you say, funding your opponents to challenge you, and expecting to lose in court.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
The right to change one's mind is one of the wonderful things about democracy.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
If that is the case, we are bucking the trend in the wider Western world.
In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.
Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform get close to or overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
And even if the Tories do 'reasonably okay' around the 130-150 seat mark, they could end up with Farage LOTO not long afterwards anyway, if he's seen as their only option.
What kind of warped thinking says that 150 Conservative seats is "Reasonably OK" for the Conservatives?
In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.
Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
Or Ed Davey? Arguably the LDs are the natural home of one nation Tories now.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
If that is the case, we are bucking the trend in the wider Western world.
In your dreams.
Let’s revisit that claim at the end of the year ...
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.
Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform get close to or overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
And even if the Tories do 'reasonably okay' around the 130-150 seat mark, they could end up with Farage LOTO not long afterwards anyway, if he's seen as their only option.
What kind of warped thinking says that 150 Conservative seats is "Reasonably OK" for the Conservatives?
Well quite. But the answer is one that was told 8 hours ago that they might be reduced to 22 seats …
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
The combined right wing vote share was 51% in 2015, and 47% in 2019. Given a period of Labour unpopularity, and those vote shares could re-emerge. Electorates are (as we see) highly volatile now.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
If that is the case, we are bucking the trend in the wider Western world.
In your dreams.
Let’s revisit that claim at the end of the year ...
My dreams? I don’t hold any candle for the populist right.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
I wonder whether in a seat where there's a Tory candidate standing who's vulnerable and is friendly with and supportive of Farage eg Mogg, he'd encourage any Reform candidate to stand down so the Tory/Reform guy has a better chance. Doesn't tie in with his standing against a Tory but that wouldn't bother him.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
You have a very rigid and narrow view of what constitutes right wing.
At the moment, being pro-immigration is seen as a left-wing position but it's entirely possible that in the future, the massive levels of immigration we've had under the Tories will be re-coded as right-wing extremism designed to undermine workers and pander to big business.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
No, we are AHEAD of the curve. The Brexit vote was our flirtation with right-wing politics. Even I voted LEAVE, remember?
In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.
Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform get close to or overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
And even if the Tories do 'reasonably okay' around the 130-150 seat mark, they could end up with Farage LOTO not long afterwards anyway, if he's seen as their only option.
What kind of warped thinking says that 150 Conservative seats is "Reasonably OK" for the Conservatives?
Well quite. But the answer is one that was told 8 hours ago that they might be reduced to 22 seats …
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
Well credit to Farage, he has at least injected a bit of excitement in an otherwise dull election.
This is not a dull election. Numerically, you can argue for the Tories getting 35 seats (losing 90% of their seats) and getting 250+ seats. That is extraordinary. Politically it may spell a turning point in a Tory saga running since the Corn Laws. We could lose a generation of household names. Scotland could turn mostly unionist. The LDs could be back with a lot of seats. The Farage effect is unknown. The party that will win is saying nothing at all about its plans. it's all an unknown. It's an amazing election, and politically could be the most far reaching since 1945.
(NB and a party winning no seats, Reform, could destroy a party currently holding 350. Dull???)
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
'You older folk' lol
I'd always assumed Heathener to be in the older half of posters here!
I'm going against the consensus. Farage will have an unexpected effect. What's flakier, the core of an unpopular party or the mile wide, inch deep votes of the not particularly liked alternative?
The polling however shows that the Tory core vote adore Farage, preferring him to Sunak, while Labour voters loathe him.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
Er, Meloni is in power in Italy. Wilders in Holland. Orban in Hungary. Le Pen has a very good chance of winning in France. Trump will only lose in America, if he loses, because he’s an insane weirdo, someone sensible with his politics would win. This isn’t me wank-casting, it is the case
It is you that is pretending this isn’t happening, and frigging your dried up vulva on the candle-shaped Kier Starmer that I am afraid, my dear, will crumble in the bath
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Could we see a Faragasm with Labour and Reform polling neck and neck before the campaign is out? I can easily imagine voters who are disillusioned with Brexit and uninspired by Sir Keir having one last go to scare the elites shitless. They did it once with Nick Clegg for Christ's sake! Nige is ideally placed to benefit from that sort of mischief.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.
Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
It's probably more accurate to say the Tory strategy has been to give the appearance of appeasing the extremists, while hoping they wouldn't really need to adopt extreme policies. Brexit should have been a big enough warning to them of the dangers of that approach.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
I think you can have a radical right movement that is actually pretty socially liberal in many respects.
Think of the colour-blind and male/female equality of the fascism depicted in the film Starship Troopers.
Could we see a Faragasm with Labour and Reform polling neck and neck before the campaign is out? I can easily imagine voters who are disillusioned with Brexit and uninspired by Sir Keir having one last go to scare the elites shitless. They did it once with Nick Clegg for Christ's sake! Nige is ideally placed to benefit from that sort of mischief.
Doubt it, but who knows!? Presumably neither Lab nor Tory will want to let him into debates... but if he polls 2nd then BBC may have to allow it?
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
I think you can have a radical right movement that is actually pretty socially liberal in many respects.
Think of the colour-blind and male/female equality of the fascism depicted in the film Starship Troopers.
Or more terrestrially, think Pim Fortuyn ot Geert Wilders.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Could we see a Faragasm with Labour and Reform polling neck and neck before the campaign is out? I can easily imagine voters who are disillusioned with Brexit and uninspired by Sir Keir having one last go to scare the elites shitless. They did it once with Nick Clegg for Christ's sake! Nige is ideally placed to benefit from that sort of mischief.
He is too marmite. In the best case scenario (the right swinging behind him, him coming out with a raft of popular and eye catching policies and none of his candidates causing him supreme embarrassment- note, the chances of all this happening are pretty much zilch) I could maybe, if I squint, see him getting something like 30%. But we’re talking real extremes here.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
Er, Meloni is in power in Italy. Wilders in Holland. Orban in Hungary. Le Pen has a very good chance of winning in France. Trump will only lose in America, if he loses, because he’s an insane weirdo, someone sensible with his politics would win. This isn’t me wank-casting, it is the case
It is you that is pretending this isn’t happening, and frigging your dried up vulva on the candle-shaped Kier Starmer that I am afraid, my dear, will crumble in the bath
I'm going against the consensus. Farage will have an unexpected effect. What's flakier, the core of an unpopular party or the mile wide, inch deep votes of the not particularly liked alternative?
The polling however shows that the Tory core vote adore Farage, preferring him to Sunak, while Labour voters loathe him.
It's an interesting idea, but I'm not seeing it.
Labour leavers. The red kippers. The Boris coalition leavers that have jumped blue to red (15 to 20% in polling) Tories like him because he talks about immigrants and toffees that don't break your false teeth. But Reform already have the disillusioned blues
In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.
Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
Or Ed Davey? Arguably the LDs are the natural home of one nation Tories now.
It’s wild that Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority on “get Brexit done” in 2019 and five years later, the Conservatives have undoubtedly Got Brexit Done … and literally no voter cares.
Nigel coming out and saying that Brexit was a load of rubbish was a masterstroke - it always was going to be, of course, but Nigel ensured that the Tories took the political battering over the thing he made them do, while he was completely absolved. Talk about 5D chess!
Very Trumpian of Farage, ain't it? But no surprise there!
Timing of UK GE is just perfect for NF. Seeing as he can now campaign in UK up to July 4, then head to USA to reclaim his seat on the MAGA gravy train for next four months.
In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.
Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
Or Ed Davey? Arguably the LDs are the natural home of one nation Tories now.
Not for me
Why not? Seems pretty obvious. They’re definitely closer to Davey than Farage. Given the choice, who would you pick?
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.
Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
It's probably more accurate to say the Tory strategy has been to give the appearance of appeasing the extremists, while hoping they wouldn't really need to adopt extreme policies. Brexit should have been a big enough warning to them of the dangers of that approach.
They believed their own propaganda about Brexit being simply about control of immigration rather than numbers, and therefore thought it gave them permission to increase it even more.
Well credit to Farage, he has at least injected a bit of excitement in an otherwise dull election.
This is not a dull election. Numerically, you can argue for the Tories getting 35 seats (losing 90% of their seats) and getting 250+ seats. That is extraordinary. Politically it may spell a turning point in a Tory saga running since the Corn Laws. We could lose a generation of household names. Scotland could turn mostly unionist. The LDs could be back with a lot of seats. The Farage effect is unknown. The party that will win is saying nothing at all about its plans. it's all an unknown. It's an amazing election, and politically could be the most far reaching since 1945.
(NB and a party winning no seats, Reform, could destroy a party currently holding 350. Dull???)
Although you could argue that is the result of changes which happened 2-3 years ago. And that this is a dull election which merely confirmed an already existing settled view.
I almost feel bad for Tice in just how obviously he was always just a seat warmer for Farage, but on the other hand it's the role he chose to take on.
I am in the camp that sees this as potentially devastating for the Tories. Centrists were gone already and red meat offers were to tempt the right, but Farage vs Sunak? I know which will excite the Tory core more.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
Er, Meloni is in power in Italy. Wilders in Holland. Orban in Hungary. Le Pen has a very good chance of winning in France. Trump will only lose in America, if he loses, because he’s an insane weirdo, someone sensible with his politics would win. This isn’t me wank-casting, it is the case
It is you that is pretending this isn’t happening, and frigging your dried up vulva on the candle-shaped Kier Starmer that I am afraid, my dear, will crumble in the bath
I must have missed Wilders becoming Dutch PM...
Assumption is that Wilders is in same position re: new Dutch PM, as Dick Cheney was re: George Bush the Lesser?
Could we see a Faragasm with Labour and Reform polling neck and neck before the campaign is out? I can easily imagine voters who are disillusioned with Brexit and uninspired by Sir Keir having one last go to scare the elites shitless. They did it once with Nick Clegg for Christ's sake! Nige is ideally placed to benefit from that sort of mischief.
He is too marmite. In the best case scenario (the right swinging behind him, him coming out with a raft of popular and eye catching policies and none of his candidates causing him supreme embarrassment- note, the chances of all this happening are pretty much zilch) I could maybe, if I squint, see him getting something like 30%. But we’re talking real extremes here.
If youre pissed off with the establishment he's the home for your protest vote.
I'm going against the consensus. Farage will have an unexpected effect. What's flakier, the core of an unpopular party or the mile wide, inch deep votes of the not particularly liked alternative?
So you're suggesting Reform will take enough votes from Labour to win the election itself, or what exactly are you suggesting?
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.
Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
It's probably more accurate to say the Tory strategy has been to give the appearance of appeasing the extremists, while hoping they wouldn't really need to adopt extreme policies. Brexit should have been a big enough warning to them of the dangers of that approach.
They believed their own propaganda about Brexit being simply about control of immigration rather than numbers, and therefore thought it gave them permission to increase it even more.
What do the net numbers for the last three years look like if we exclude some or all of Ukraine, Hong Kong, and students?
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
Indeed Mme Le Pen is now so establishment she is in danger of being outflanked on her right
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.
Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
Or Ed Davey? Arguably the LDs are the natural home of one nation Tories now.
Not for me
Why not? Seems pretty obvious. They’re definitely closer to Davey than Farage. Given the choice, who would you pick?
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
ROFL Farage aside, where are the interesting bits ?
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
Indeed Mme Le Pen is now so establishment she is in danger of being outflanked on her right
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.
Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform get close to or overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
And even if the Tories do 'reasonably okay' around the 130-150 seat mark, they could end up with Farage LOTO not long afterwards anyway, if he's seen as their only option.
It would split the party asunder. TRG type Tories would leave in droves. There aren’t enough votes for a Farage type candidate. Boris only got the votes to win by pretending he was the bastard love child of Farage and Tony Blair.
He got the votes to win in the party because he seemed most likely to win an election, which he was.
Farage would struggle with that, but he would reshape a party that seems like it wants to be reshaped.
But I expect he will be happy to just be a constant reminder to the Tories that he can take 5-15% from them whenever he wants .
I'm going against the consensus. Farage will have an unexpected effect. What's flakier, the core of an unpopular party or the mile wide, inch deep votes of the not particularly liked alternative?
So you're suggesting Reform will take enough votes from Labour to win the election itself, or what exactly are you suggesting?
I'm suggesting the fervour about Farage's return being existential for the Tories is misplaced and any effect he has will, imo be to slightly reduce the Labour lead.
By the way, this is all good fun, but tribal political loyalties run deep. Whilst Sunak has harnessed the raw political zesty appeal of a Tory Ed Milliband we must fully expect the blue hordes to turn out on en masse 4 July as they’ve done for a hundred years. Never underestimate the Tories.
I almost feel bad for Tice in just how obviously he was always just a seat warmer for Farage, but on the other hand it's the role he chose to take on.
I am in the camp that sees this as potentially devastating for the Tories. Centrists were gone already and red meat offers were to tempt the right, but Farage vs Sunak? I know which will excite the Tory core more.
Tice never looks comfortable giving speeches or TV interviews. It’s not his metier. I suspect he is quite happy to cede the limelight to a much better performer
I'm going against the consensus. Farage will have an unexpected effect. What's flakier, the core of an unpopular party or the mile wide, inch deep votes of the not particularly liked alternative?
So you're suggesting Reform will take enough votes from Labour to win the election itself, or what exactly are you suggesting?
I'm suggesting the fervour about Farage's return being existential for the Tories is misplaced and any effect he has will, imo be to slightly reduce the Labour lead.
And he will be on his way to the US on the 5th July
Deltapoll Con 25% (+2) Lab 48% (+3) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 9% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) Green 4% (-2) Other 3% (-) Fieldwork: 31st May - 3rd June 2024 Sample: 1,077 GB adults (Changes from 23rd-25th May 2024)
I'm going against the consensus. Farage will have an unexpected effect. What's flakier, the core of an unpopular party or the mile wide, inch deep votes of the not particularly liked alternative?
So you're suggesting Reform will take enough votes from Labour to win the election itself, or what exactly are you suggesting?
I'm suggesting the fervour about Farage's return being existential for the Tories is misplaced and any effect he has will, imo be to slightly reduce the Labour lead.
You might be right this time, but your predictive powers have been lacking thus far. You forecast Abbottgate would hurt Sir Keir...
MRP South Devon "result" looks bollocks. Anybody think Labour is going to get the same voting % as in 2019?
Depends entirely on whether tactical voting takes place on a big scale.
To an extent, but there was a lot of tactical voting that took place in 1997, yet I can only think of Harrogate where the Labour percentage share was static or fell (other than a couple of Lib Dem by-election gain places where the squeeze had already happened). The tactical vote manifested itself more as a modest vote share increase for Labour in Lib Dem targets (and a large Lib Dem vote share increase in those areas despite a slight fall in vote compared with 1992).
In essence, if Labour are up from 2019 as much as the polls suggest then, even with a lot of tactical voting, they'd be up a bit almost everywhere, even in hopeless seats.
By the way, this is all good fun, but tribal political loyalties run deep. Whilst Sunak has harnessed the raw political zesty appeal of a Tory Ed Milliband we must fully expect the blue hordes to turn out on en masse 4 July as they’ve done for a hundred years. Never underestimate the Tories.
I find it impossible to imagine Sir Keir getting a better result than Blair in 1997. But, maybe I will be wrong.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
ROFL Farage aside, where are the interesting bits ?
Labour landslide poll predictions are pretty interesting to anyone who has spent the last 14 loooong years at the wrong end of the elections.
The buggers might actually go this time. If that doesn’t float your boat nothing will.
I'm going against the consensus. Farage will have an unexpected effect. What's flakier, the core of an unpopular party or the mile wide, inch deep votes of the not particularly liked alternative?
So you're suggesting Reform will take enough votes from Labour to win the election itself, or what exactly are you suggesting?
I'm suggesting the fervour about Farage's return being existential for the Tories is misplaced and any effect he has will, imo be to slightly reduce the Labour lead.
You might be right this time, but your predictive powers have been lacking thus far. You forecast Abbottgate would hurt Sir Keir...
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
I see I have been having a discussion with myself on the last thread. Thought it was a bit quite. Thought I might have offended you all. They were devastating posts as well.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
I think you can have a radical right movement that is actually pretty socially liberal in many respects.
Think of the colour-blind and male/female equality of the fascism depicted in the film Starship Troopers.
Or more terrestrially, think Pim Fortuyn ot Geert Wilders.
Liberal except in so far as they look at some people and want them expelled from society.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
Indeed Mme Le Pen is now so establishment she is in danger of being outflanked on her right
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
I recall a much reported moment in the last elections when a Macron minister called Le Pen soft on Islam and she looked utterly and genuinely baffled.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
Indeed Mme Le Pen is now so establishment she is in danger of being outflanked on her right
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
You said that last time.
i don’t believe I did. In fact I am sure i didn’t
But we all misremember. I remember quoting some supposed expert who CLAIMED she was gonna win, but that is different
This time I will be come out and say it, as things stand (a long long way to go) she will win. But, evenements, dear garçon, evenements
Well credit to Farage, he has at least injected a bit of excitement in an otherwise dull election.
This is not a dull election. Numerically, you can argue for the Tories getting 35 seats (losing 90% of their seats) and getting 250+ seats. That is extraordinary. Politically it may spell a turning point in a Tory saga running since the Corn Laws. We could lose a generation of household names. Scotland could turn mostly unionist. The LDs could be back with a lot of seats. The Farage effect is unknown. The party that will win is saying nothing at all about its plans. it's all an unknown. It's an amazing election, and politically could be the most far reaching since 1945.
(NB and a party winning no seats, Reform, could destroy a party currently holding 350. Dull???)
Although you could argue that is the result of changes which happened 2-3 years ago. And that this is a dull election which merely confirmed an already existing settled view.
I agree there is no doubt which party will lead the next government, but even on that score, this actual change happened last in 1997,1974 and 1964. It doesn't happen all the time. Both on the detailed outcome on 4th July and the consequences, short medium and long term, there is huge uncertainty and great fascination. Dull this is not.
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
Well so they should do that. It's insane to do otherwise under FPP.
I wonder whether in a seat where there's a Tory candidate standing who's vulnerable and is friendly with and supportive of Farage eg Mogg, he'd encourage any Reform candidate to stand down so the Tory/Reform guy has a better chance. Doesn't tie in with his standing against a Tory but that wouldn't bother him.
I believe they've done that in the past but I feel like this time they are kick a man when he's down mode.
Deltapoll Con 25% (+2) Lab 48% (+3) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 9% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) Green 4% (-2) Other 3% (-) Fieldwork: 31st May - 3rd June 2024 Sample: 1,077 GB adults (Changes from 23rd-25th May 2024)
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
Indeed Mme Le Pen is now so establishment she is in danger of being outflanked on her right
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
After the way that polling support for Sinn Fein has collapsed over the last six months I'd think that Le Pen is vulnerable to someone new better expressing the frustrations of the voters, but the two-stage nature of the election should help her against a challenge from the right.
I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.
Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
I mean, politically I agree with you but not psephologically? You may be correct but I’m not at all sure about the claim that 'Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.'
With Farage at the helm, standing as an MP, and the Conservatives at rock bottom with a weak leader I’d say that Reform could do a bit better than they are currently polling.
Well that is better? The polls say what, 10-11% maybe nationally? I reckon its going to end up nationally way less. The way some talk its like an exisential threat to the Conservatives but the threat to the Conservatives is their post election in-fighting. People are tired of them, they are going to take a kicking, that happens. Its about what they do after.
My own thoughts about Farage aside, and bear in mind I may be the only person on this site to have stated that I consider myself, in some ways, a British nationalist, Reform has no story, its currently a protest party in scale and position and this election I don't think will prove different.
Hmm. Sixty-two of the Tories' 140 seats are held by under 5% (49 from Labour, 10 from LDs, 2 from SNP, and 1 from both LDs and Labour in a 3-way).
If, for example, they lose 3% more to Reform in those seats, they're vulnerable to 1% further squeeze/swing that'd take them down to as low as 78 seats (77 if they lose Clacton to Reform).
Whilst Labour could rise as high as 472, and Lib Dems as high as 59. Converseley, the Tories could get up to 187 while pushing Labour down to 385 and Lib Dems down to 37 by clawing back those seats they lose to those two by under 5%
Comments
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
But, actions have to match words. You can't offer your supporters right wing words, while as you say, funding your opponents to challenge you, and expecting to lose in court.
The Tories will suffer from Farage to an extent, but so will Labour, Farage has just undermined their election slogan.
Labour "Change" means lots more of the same, Farage actually would change things.
Change is really only on offer froms Galloway or Farage,
But she agrees that he is box office.
She is voting LibDem for the first time in her life, so she tells me. ‘Though that might be to make me feel happier
Let’s revisit that claim at the end of the year ...
Question, with regard to photos.
Does quoting post with a photo with it count towards the one day limit?
Because if so we will probably all need to rethink our approach to quoting.
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
At the moment, being pro-immigration is seen as a left-wing position but it's entirely possible that in the future, the massive levels of immigration we've had under the Tories will be re-coded as right-wing extremism designed to undermine workers and pander to big business.
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
(NB and a party winning no seats, Reform, could destroy a party currently holding 350. Dull???)
While your friend wouldnt vote him he'll go down much better outside Surrey.
It's an interesting idea, but I'm not seeing it.
It is you that is pretending this isn’t happening, and frigging your dried up vulva on the candle-shaped Kier Starmer that I am afraid, my dear, will crumble in the bath
This is interesting.
His celebrity - and gift of gab (or gob) is NOT an absolute plus for NF or his party-hearties.
Starmer has to deliver in govt or we could end up with Farage as prime minister, either leading Reform or the Conservatives.
Think of the colour-blind and male/female equality of the fascism depicted in the film Starship Troopers.
Tories like him because he talks about immigrants and toffees that don't break your false teeth. But Reform already have the disillusioned blues
“To those texting me asking if Nigel Farage will win Clacton. Yes, Nigel Farage will win Clacton”
https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1797668528667193676?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
And that this is a dull election which merely confirmed an already existing settled view.
I am in the camp that sees this as potentially devastating for the Tories. Centrists were gone already and red meat offers were to tempt the right, but Farage vs Sunak? I know which will excite the Tory core more.
The real power behind the figurehead.
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
And here in Wales they are irrelevant
A southern English party
Farage would struggle with that, but he would reshape a party that seems like it wants to be reshaped.
But I expect he will be happy to just be a constant reminder to the Tories that he can take 5-15% from them whenever he wants .
Con 25% (+2)
Lab 48% (+3)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
Reform 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (-1)
Green 4% (-2)
Other 3% (-)
Fieldwork: 31st May - 3rd June 2024
Sample: 1,077 GB adults
(Changes from 23rd-25th May 2024)
In essence, if Labour are up from 2019 as much as the polls suggest then, even with a lot of tactical voting, they'd be up a bit almost everywhere, even in hopeless seats.
The buggers might actually go this time. If that doesn’t float your boat nothing will.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
But we all misremember. I remember quoting some supposed expert who CLAIMED she was gonna win, but that is different
This time I will be come out and say it, as things stand (a long long way to go) she will win. But, evenements, dear garçon, evenements
I'm holding onto a 100+ prediction. For now.
I got on the LDs at 14/1
Sixty-two of the Tories' 140 seats are held by under 5% (49 from Labour, 10 from LDs, 2 from SNP, and 1 from both LDs and Labour in a 3-way).
If, for example, they lose 3% more to Reform in those seats, they're vulnerable to 1% further squeeze/swing that'd take them down to as low as 78 seats (77 if they lose Clacton to Reform).
Whilst Labour could rise as high as 472, and Lib Dems as high as 59.
Converseley, the Tories could get up to 187 while pushing Labour down to 385 and Lib Dems down to 37 by clawing back those seats they lose to those two by under 5%