Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

A tale of two seats: Maidstone and Macclesfield – politicalbetting.com

15791011

Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    17 Polls released last week

    Lab lead ranging from 12 to 27

    Ave lead calculated as Mean Average 21.12

    Median Lead 22

    Modal lead 23

    Data from UK Polling Wiki

    Raw Data 22, 14, 22, 12, 17, 27, 23, 23, 23, 27, 19, 16, 20, 25, 24, 20, 25

    SKSICIPM?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    It's a superb city, and one of our biggest too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom
    Mum and I went there back in October, she's thought it was great photographically speaking.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    Leon said:

    Oooooooh I’m in OLD CHISINAU

    NO ONE EVER COMES HERE

    MAINLY BECAUSE THERE’S NOTHING HERE

    Why no photos?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,528
    theProle said:

    The problem with the highest paid medics is that whatever we do provides perverse incentives. Tax them at the current tax rates without pension relief, and they may well look at the current marginal tax rates, realise they could get paid 3/4 of their current take home pay to only work 3 days a week and spend the rest of the week improving their golf swing.

    Given them pension relief, and they get to about 50, pay the mortgage off, and either go part-time or retire.

    Fundementally, if you can arrange to earn enough by the time you're 50 to pay for a comfortable lifestyle for the rest of your life, for a lot of people, why would you keep on working? But the logical conclusion to that is that the only fix to make them work longer is to pay doctors less - which just means they trot off to Australia in even greater numbers.

    I think what all this illustrates most plainly is the folly of progressively increasing tax rates; if income tax was a flat 20% rather than progressive bands, then incentives to drop to 3 days a week become much weaker, as do the incentives to load up the pension and retire earlier.

    The other side of the coin is that the cost of doctors is a function of supply and demand; there is no shortage of applicants for medical school, but because we restrict training (because training doctors is expensive) supply of doctors is very limited. What we could do with is training more doctors (increasing supply, so they will cost less to hire), but then somehow saddle them with the cost of their training in such a way that if they go abroad or decide to retire at 50 they have to pay it back in full. As for how we might actually do that, answers on a postcard...
    IIRC (@Foxy can presumably confirm / deny) the acute problem right now is lack of training capacity for mid-career medics which, in turn, is restricting the flow of medics who go on to become consultants. Supply at the bottom end is better, even if not actually in surplus. Consultant supply is bloody awful.

    There’s a tension between consultant availability for treating patients & consultant availability for teaching the next generation of consultants. The “optimal” thing to do is probably to boost teaching capacity a lot & accept that patient delivery is just going to have to come second for some years to come until we’ve redressed the balance between future needs & current ones, but what government wants to do that? Much easier to ram your head into the sand (as the current government has gleefully done for the past decade) and ignore the problem until it becomes acute. We got on the wrong side of this balance (for short term financial reasons, natch) some years ago & are now screwed whatever we do.

    Now that future has arrived & we have some tough choices to make, as Blair liked to say. (In my opinion Blair always took the easy choice instead of the electorally difficult one whilst making a lot of noise about difficult choices. The exception to this rule, weirdly, was the Iraq War.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    “Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)

    It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.

    Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.

    Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
    Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.

    The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited June 2024

    I'm sure you know this but Derbyshire's cycling officer is very good IMO - I'm sure she'd be receptive.
    If you could PM me a contact that would be appreciated. I would be putting in a series of about 10 requests via the Public Highways web form.

    What I'm looking at with this one is the new National Trust commitment towards active travel (they are very car-brained especially for rural properties) at their AGM last November, and seeing if I can find a way to get things rolling at Hardwick Hall. Not sure if I have mentioned it here - it's possible, as I've ben chattering about it.

    It started with the normal crapulous cycle - cycle parking is crap at HH, so no one visits by cycle and uses it, but no one visits by cycle and uses it because it is crap. Exactly the same as "no cycling facilities needed on dangerous rural roads, as no one cycles on them .... guess why?".

    And then on to "but if we need to improve it, how will they get there" - so I need a network of safe, useable walking and wheeling routes from all the communities within about 10-15 miles to reach the half million people who live nearby.

    The Stockley Trail may be part of such a route.

    NT do things in some places like 10% off if you display a cycle helmet or a bus ticket. To me they look serious but are going to need help everywhere to make it happen.

    https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/who-we-are/annual-general-meeting/board-of-trustees-reflections-on-agm-resolutions#rt-walking-and-cycling-access-to-properties
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    Newcastle at sunset, October 2023:


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    A poll (of sorts!)
    NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey

    Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.

    Labour 46 % (up 7%)
    Conservative 25 % (down 3%)
    Reform UK 18 % (down 2%)
    Lib Dem 6% (no change)
    SNP 2% (no change)
    Green 2% (down 1%)
    Another party 1% (no change)
    Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    I've been there twice. Unfortunately one of those times coincided with what I think was their hottest ever heatwave and of course the hotel didn't have any air conditioning. That was in about 2008.
    Ouch. That is deeply unfortunate.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Intriguing but barely relevant poll of GB News viewers has Labour with a massive lead and slightly higher propensity to Reform as you’d imagine. This is genuinely in the just a bit of fun category.

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1797618354557001974?s=46
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited June 2024

    Newcastle at sunset, October 2023:


    Some parochial people on here will tell you that only half of that photograph is Newcastle.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,070

    17 Polls released last week

    Lab lead ranging from 12 to 27

    Ave lead calculated as Mean Average 21.12

    Median Lead 22

    Modal lead 23

    Data from UK Polling Wiki

    Raw Data 22, 14, 22, 12, 17, 27, 23, 23, 23, 27, 19, 16, 20, 25, 24, 20, 25

    These are all supposed to be estimates of the same thing. With range of 15 points and the largest two being over double the smallest estimate. It suggest that either the sampling methods or the corrections for don't knows is hopelessly hit and miss.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,261

    A poll (of sorts!)
    NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey

    Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.

    Labour 46 % (up 7%)
    Conservative 25 % (down 3%)
    Reform UK 18 % (down 2%)
    Lib Dem 6% (no change)
    SNP 2% (no change)
    Green 2% (down 1%)
    Another party 1% (no change)
    Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)

    If they can’t retain the GB News vote they really are done for.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,165
    edited June 2024
    *Deleted* Already posted
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,070

    Some parochial people on here will tell you that only half of that photograph is Newcastle.
    I would have thought that only a quarter is Newcastle. Half of it is just a reflection.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    A poll (of sorts!)
    NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey

    Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.

    Labour 46 % (up 7%)
    Conservative 25 % (down 3%)
    Reform UK 18 % (down 2%)
    Lib Dem 6% (no change)
    SNP 2% (no change)
    Green 2% (down 1%)
    Another party 1% (no change)
    Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)

    I didn't know John Lewis did opinion polls!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Carnyx said:

    Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.

    The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
    There’s a very good walk along the banks of the Tyne which highlights the region’s history. At the start of the 20th Century as well as being a major exporting port (half the coal exported in the world went down the Tyne it was also a major centre of innovation, - the “Silicon Glen” of its age - from steam turbines to electric bulbs and major armaments. Retail parks and call centres now - but we need more “Victorian” cities like Newcastle, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow to thrive as they once did.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MattW said:

    There often is if you look.

    My favourite is still probably the famous Kerplunk Barriers near RHS Bridgwater (I did not post a pic over the w/e so I am assuming 50% of quota persists), which are 4-fold chicanes on a gritty slippy path to "slow cyclists down", where it's impossible to slow down because it's a steep hill and wheels instantly lock.

    It's supposed ot be a major route to RHS Bridgewater for walking and wheeling, but no one in a mobility aid will go down that unless completely deranged.

    The real problem is that it's a one in ten hill (national standard max allowed 1:20) because they f*cked up the profile of the path. They were able to dig down for the houses either side, but no one bothered. It's fixable but difficult to make happen.

    It is at https://what3words.com/jumpy.wheels.spices .


    Apart from anything else, that is one of the ugliest pieces of street 'furniture' that I have ever seen. Which morons design this absurd clutter? I have just returned from France, where they have much more cycling and manage to keep their towns very well presented and largely free of idiot barriers and assorted rummage.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,249
    CatMan said:

    *Deleted* Already posted

    GB News better consider changing their content!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    eristdoof said:

    I would have thought that only a quarter is Newcastle. Half of it is just a reflection.
    Ha!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    @mikeysmith

    Not content with trying to predict the election, pollsters are now busying themselves predicting each others’ predictions.

    https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1797552670418378908
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686

    Zara considers their Metro Centre store their Newcastle store for a reason

    But - it just isn't. And it's particularly unhelpful if, say, you're in Newcastle City Centre and looking for Zara.
    I find the concept of not understanding geography except through the nearest big city slightly painful. Its as if we don't think people can hold more than 10 places in their head at once. Can we not expect a bit more of people?
    I was reading something recently - in the Guardian I think - which mentioned Buxton and described it as 'near Manchester'. Which from the perspective of London is true, I suppose, but 'Derbyshire' seems to paint it much better.
    See also: cricket teams named 'Birmingham' rather than 'Warwickshire'; or service stations named 'Birmingham North' rather than 'Hilton Park' (happily the trend for the latter has gone firmly into reverse).

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157

    If they can’t retain the GB News vote they really are done for.
    And (in light of what may be about to befall), Lab is geater than Con+Ref.

    If (ha!) GBN is intended as a propoganda outlet to brainwash its viewers, it's a pretty ineffective one.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith

    Not content with trying to predict the election, pollsters are now busying themselves predicting each others’ predictions.

    https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1797552670418378908

    So what size majority would that be? Is that Labour most seats ever?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    If they can’t retain the GB News vote they really are done for.
    I overheard a GB News lady talking to a couple of (I inferred) strangers on the train the other day – she was saying that the majority of their viewers are Labour and that they are a "very balanced" station that entertains a variety of viewpoints. I rarely watch it so I don't know how true the latter part of her testimony is.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940
    edited June 2024
    A
    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith

    Not content with trying to predict the election, pollsters are now busying themselves predicting each others’ predictions.

    https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1797552670418378908

    5 more weeks of this
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    edited June 2024

    I didn't know John Lewis did opinion polls!
    Never knowingly underpolled

    Edit: Bugger. Seconds in it. I shouldn't have waited and checked to see if anyone had already said it
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188
    edited June 2024

    I didn't know John Lewis did opinion polls!
    Never Knowingly Under-polled!

    ETA: Third, like - um - me :lol:
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith

    Not content with trying to predict the election, pollsters are now busying themselves predicting each others’ predictions.

    https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1797552670418378908

    Well it’s the most boring election in decades. Starmer is genetically boring. Sunak can’t afford to be interesting. There are no scenarios where Davey is relevant enough to be interesting. It’s 6 weeks of watching a slow motion car wreck followed by 18 hours of analysing the car wreck in real time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049

    So what size majority would that be? Is that Labour most seats ever?
    Yes, previous record is 1997 (419).

    Record for any party in the age of universal suffrage is 1931 when the Conservatives won 470, but that was somewhat skewed by the number of constituencies where they faced only one opponent due to various electoral pacts.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188
    Andy_JS said:

    Why no photos?
    Maybe there is a photo, but - as per Leon's comment - there's nothing in it?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    “Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)

    It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.

    Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.

    Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
    On Youtube there is a video of Ian Nairn visiting Newcastle in the early seventies. Well worth catching if you can. He adored Newcastle. Cannot find the link

    Nairn made some interesting early travelogues around the UK. A different UK to now, only 50 or so years ago. Sadly succumbed to alcoholism
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060

    A poll (of sorts!)
    NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey

    Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.

    Labour 46 % (up 7%)
    Conservative 25 % (down 3%)
    Reform UK 18 % (down 2%)
    Lib Dem 6% (no change)
    SNP 2% (no change)
    Green 2% (down 1%)
    Another party 1% (no change)
    Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)

    JL Partners (along with Opinium) are the most favourable methodology toward the Tories

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12178/polling-errors-politicalbetting-com#latest

    So this poll is an absolute travesty for them.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157

    So what size majority would that be? Is that Labour most seats ever?
    The record (for any party) is Blair's 418 in 1997.

    And L435-C120 may be about to get a whole lot worse...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616
    Never knowingly under-polled.

    See what I did there?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    "The Tories have given up | Rachel Sylvester
    Times Radio"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg8amFQ99IA
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049
    Selebian said:

    Never Knowingly Under-polled!
    Jon Lewis, Gloucestershire, Surrey, Sussex and England, now coach of England women, was also called 'never knowingly underbowled' for his stamina.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    JL Partners (along with Opinium) are the most favourable methodology toward the Tories

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12178/polling-errors-politicalbetting-com#latest

    So this poll is an absolute travesty for them.
    It's an unweighted poll of 500 GB News viewers, it's not in any way a serious poll of VI
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188
    edited June 2024
    TOPPING said:

    Never knowingly under-polled.

    See what I did there?

    Bloody hell, you're fifth, by my count. Anabob, Andy, Me, Farooq, You. Never knowingly under-punned on PB :lol:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    Somebody should make a joke confusing JL with John Lewis...
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Andy_JS said:

    "The Tories have given up | Rachel Sylvester
    Times Radio"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg8amFQ99IA

    Wouldn’t you?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited June 2024

    Apart from anything else, that is one of the ugliest pieces of street 'furniture' that I have ever seen. Which morons design this absurd clutter? I have just returned from France, where they have much more cycling and manage to keep their towns very well presented and largely free of idiot barriers and assorted rummage.
    It's a quick, cheap fix to a "problem" that looks like an answer to the voters.

    The basic issues are around LHAs not being experienced at designing infra. Here they have used the same sort of serpentine fencing and gritty surface that they used on the towpaths of the Bridgwater Canal, and not realised that it is dangerous on a steep hill.

    You can see that there is even a straight line down the middle, so the curves don't even restrict the line taken.

    Plus poor sightlines at the bottom, and cyclists who can't stop even if they want to. There were a couple of collisions and this is the sticky plaster. it's far simpler to blame people ("cyclists whizzing everywhere") than fix the poor design.

    To fix it will need a serpentine tarmac path, to reduce the effective gradient to 1 in 20 for mobility scooters etc, and a railing along the side of the road to stop anyone rolling through. Here's a less extreme example on the Five Pits trail which is on a Pegasus Crossing and designed for horses:

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Tibshelf,+Alfreton/@53.1424357,-1.3445902,108a,44.7y,2.15t/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x4879916ac5cfe3c9:0x589d720d0312804f!8m2!3d53.140349!4d-1.346878!16zL20vMDloYzhy?entry=ttu
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Scott_xP said:

    Somebody should make a joke confusing JL with John Lewis...

    Or how JL Partners offer extended warranty on their polls
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    edited June 2024

    It’s got to be a former PM now, so Blair is the obvious choice.
    At the rate Britain has gone recently, there'll soon be enough ex-PMs for a full Cabinet.

    If you were to put all our living ex-PMs into Starmer's first Cabinet, what jobs would you give them?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,261
    ToryJim said:

    Well it’s the most boring election in decades. Starmer is genetically boring. Sunak can’t afford to be interesting. There are no scenarios where Davey is relevant enough to be interesting. It’s 6 weeks of watching a slow motion car wreck followed by 18 hours of analysing the car wreck in real time.
    I do admit I find it a really boring election so far.

    I shouldn’t find it boring! We’re looking at the first change of government for 14 years and a potential Tory catastrophe which could change the structure of British politics that has been in place since the end of WWII, and in my case my first-time-ever vote for Labour in a GE.

    But I do find it boring. Maybe it’s the inevitability (though that didn’t make 1997 unexciting). Maybe it’s the fact that Starmer has managed to make playing things safely and sensibly such an art form that I don’t anticipate any big slipups injecting any jeopardy (even false jeopardy). Maybe we’re just tired after so many years of Tory psychodrama. But it is odd. I have felt an energy and excitement for every GE I can remember - save 2001 for obvious reasons. Here I feel I’m going through the motions a bit. Maybe I’ll feel differently after the debates and manifestos. I hope so.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    ToryJim said:

    Wouldn’t you?
    Given how badly the last ten days have gone with the Conservatives actively campaigning, gving up and saying nothing might turn out better.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 829
    edited June 2024

    Has anyone got any more good betting tips for either constituencies or overall?

    It seems like there’s so little value out there.

    Thinking about trading bets on the Lib Dem’s for ‘Most seats without Labour’. Could Farage’s announcement make that more enticing?

    I’ve also laid Reform 0 seats as I imagine the 4pm announcement will lead to a surge of betting on them - may be able to secure a quick profit by tonight.

    Sit on yer hands and await good entry points, you don't have to bet and you certainly don't have to bet *now*. I want to sell lib dem seats on the spreads desparately but I need a bid much closer to 50 to do it.

    I currently have a simple book of three positions:

    8/1 on Corbyn getting greater vote numbers than Starmer, thanks to Quincel's amazing tip the other day
    Long Labour seats at 402
    Laid Corbyn in Islington North at 1.49

    You can't get the first two although the second one has a reasonable chance of becoming available again, just need a wobble. The third is still nearly available at 1.64 and everything in my gut is telling me that he should be longer than evens. I don't have any real research or local knowledge to back this up though *other* than the demographics don't look good for a large gaza protest vote or alternatively a personality based "been our MP for ages" one. I think the shortness comes from political people being too political and in a bubble where they think normies talk about Corbyn. But I stress my lack of knowledge of the seat so YMMV.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049

    At the rate Britain has gone recently, there'll soon be enough ex-PMs for a full Cabinet.

    If you were to put all our living ex-PMs into Starmer's first Cabinet, what jobs would you give them?
    Boris Johnson, Minister for Sex as the Coming Man.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    Farage may have timed it perfectly. The Tories have already failed to squeeze the Reform vote and now they can expect to become *the* story for a while which could lead to a polling bounce.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited June 2024

    There’s a very good walk along the banks of the Tyne which highlights the region’s history. At the start of the 20th Century as well as being a major exporting port (half the coal exported in the world went down the Tyne it was also a major centre of innovation, - the “Silicon Glen” of its age - from steam turbines to electric bulbs and major armaments. Retail parks and call centres now - but we need more “Victorian” cities like Newcastle, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow to thrive as they once did.
    Oh, I've been intending to have a good look again and explore more - along the Tyne and to see Stephenson's family home, but also Jarrow and South Shields and Tynemouth. And Armstrong's house further inland.

    But there is some very fine Georgian/Victorian architecture there in the inner city. The curve of Grainger Street.

    And our engineers might like the Turbinia in the museum near the railway station.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,249
    edited June 2024
    Quite an interesting podcast with Nick Robinson and a couple of Party advisors on what they believe their respective strategies to be.....and other things like Diane Abbott and Starmers background ....real and romanticised

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001znmv
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Cookie said:

    But - it just isn't. And it's particularly unhelpful if, say, you're in Newcastle City Centre and looking for Zara.
    I find the concept of not understanding geography except through the nearest big city slightly painful. Its as if we don't think people can hold more than 10 places in their head at once. Can we not expect a bit more of people?
    I was reading something recently - in the Guardian I think - which mentioned Buxton and described it as 'near Manchester'. Which from the perspective of London is true, I suppose, but 'Derbyshire' seems to paint it much better.
    See also: cricket teams named 'Birmingham' rather than 'Warwickshire'; or service stations named 'Birmingham North' rather than 'Hilton Park' (happily the trend for the latter has gone firmly into reverse).

    It is in Greater Newcastle, nobody is claiming it is in central Newcastle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616
    edited June 2024
    Never knowingly under-polled.

    Geddit.

    Edit: I mean jeez if I've got to explain my jokes on here things really are coming to a pretty pass.

    Your welcome.
  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 67
    Scott_xP said:

    Somebody should make a joke confusing JL with John Lewis...

    Never knowingly underpolled
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394

    Given how badly the last ten days have gone with the Conservatives actively campaigning, gving up and saying nothing might turn out better.
    Apparently Richi was in Henley this morning (a seat the Conservatives have held for 114 years) talking to a Women's rowing team about the Tories big new shiny gender recognition policy, but he failed to actually mention that to any of them...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,847
    Pulpstar said:

    Can I change my entry for biggest Tory vote drop. Clearly going to be Clacton now.

    Alternatively, in almost the words of Lionel Richie.

    "You're once, twice, eight times a loser..."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049

    Alternatively, in almost the words of Lionel Richie.

    "You're once, twice, eight times a loser..."
    Amateur compared to Trump. He's lost 37 times in court recently.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940
    Carnyx said:

    Oh, I've been intending to have a good look again - along the Tyne and to see Stephenson's family home, but also Jarrow and South Shields and Tynemouth. And Armstrong's house further inland.
    It's great along there. Cycle path the whole way if you fancy it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    Can we have a ruling please?

    Is it under-polled, or underpolled?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    Eabhal said:

    It's great along there. Cycle path the whole way if you fancy it.
    A cycle path from Tynemouth to South Shields?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616
    Big_Ian said:

    Never knowingly underpolled
    Thank you.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616
    Scott_xP said:

    Can we have a ruling please?

    Is it under-polled, or underpolled?

    In my mind didn't "correct" English drop the hyphen some time ago.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940
    edited June 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    A cycle path from Tynemouth to South Shields?
    You have to dismount for the ferry, yes...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    Thanks to TLG86 for the header.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Rock star Colin Gibb has died, aged 70.

    Sadly he and his wife were due to move to Spain on Thursday for their retirement.

    He will be remembered for eighties summer songs.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/agadoo-singer-dies-suddenly/ar-BB1nxmSV?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8fd68e807db84a5094a44c2ebaecd186&ei=32
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently Richi was in Henley this morning (a seat the Conservatives have held for 114 years) talking to a Women's rowing team about the Tories big new shiny gender recognition policy, but he failed to actually mention that to any of them...
    If they were busy training, they wouldn't have wanted him sticking his oar in.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Scott_xP said:

    A cycle path from Tynemouth to South Shields?
    I have done it a few times. The shields ferry is a part of the journey and fun to catch.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940
    edited June 2024
    Sunak has just retweeted the Lib Dem boat thing, highlighting it to his 2.3 million followers.

    CCHQ have gone bananas

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1797607539452096558?t=0z9mOdFHgody1fohpZlB1Q&s=19
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Carnyx said:

    Oh, I've been intending to have a good look again and explore more - along the Tyne and to see Stephenson's family home, but also Jarrow and South Shields and Tynemouth. And Armstrong's house further inland.

    But there is some very fine Georgian/Victorian architecture there in the inner city. The curve of Grainger Street.

    And our engineers might like the Turbinia in the museum near the railway station.
    They not long ago re-opened the pedestrian tunnel which runs near to the Tyne Tunnel. You can cycle through it too. Think you get on Northern side by Howden.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    "Colin Gibb: Black Lace star who sang Agadoo dies

    Gibb was a founding member of the novelty pop band best known for 1980s hits Agadoo, Superman and Do The Conga."

    https://news.sky.com/story/colin-gibb-black-lace-star-who-sang-agadoo-dies-13147222
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940
    Redfield has 26 point lead
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    @RedfieldWilton
    🇬🇧 MEGA POLL!

    10K sample.

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Sunak as PM.

    Westminster VI (31/5 - 2/6):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 20% (-3)
    Reform 14% (+1)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 25-27/5
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Lol, Tories sinking

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 20% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Redfield
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Eabhal said:

    Sunak has just retweeted the Lib Dem boat thing, highlighting it to his 2.3 million followers.

    CCHQ have gone bananas

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1797607539452096558?t=0z9mOdFHgody1fohpZlB1Q&s=19

    One presumes Rishi has control of his own social media accounts, although others may have access too. I would imagine nothing gets posted without his nod. I think there’s also a danger of overanalysing everything. Most people aren’t going to be aware of the PMs social media activity.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,922
    148grss said:

    So women who are into bondage or BDSM are not women? I don't understand the argument here.
    Sorry it wasn't clear. The person in question is a trans man, and is the subject of some dispute in Australia, where people who refer to him as a woman are told to take the tweet down (see Google for the full story). If the UK uses biological sex as a determinant then that person will be forced to use the woman's toilet.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Lol, Tories sinking

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 20% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Redfield

    This has the Tories on 23% with over 65s....... colour me sceptical on that front
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton
    🇬🇧 MEGA POLL!

    10K sample.

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Sunak as PM.

    Westminster VI (31/5 - 2/6):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 20% (-3)
    Reform 14% (+1)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 25-27/5

    There’s got to be a non-zero chance of someone on team Tory having an emotional meltdown at this rate. The Tories deserve a hammering I’m not sure they entirely deserve this though.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,261

    Lol, Tories sinking

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 20% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Redfield

    Yeah at this stage my prediction they wouldn’t sink below 150 seats is looking rocky…

    Campaign looks to be focussing minds, but against them.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188
    Taz said:

    Rock star Colin Gibb has died, aged 70.

    Sadly he and his wife were due to move to Spain on Thursday for their retirement.

    He will be remembered for eighties summer songs.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/agadoo-singer-dies-suddenly/ar-BB1nxmSV?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8fd68e807db84a5094a44c2ebaecd186&ei=32

    I assumed, on seeing the name, that he was one of the Brothers Gibb!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    Presidential campaign latest...

    @RedfieldWilton
    Largest EVER lead for Starmer over Sunak.

    Joint-lowest % EVER to pick Sunak.

    At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better PM for the UK? (31 May - 2 June)

    Keir Starmer 46% (+1)
    Rishi Sunak 26% (–)

    Changes +/- 25-27 May
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188

    Tories making sure they don't peak too soon during this campaign.
    What makes you think they haven't peaked already? :hushed:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    If Reform start polling second after Farage launches, he'll have a strong case to be included in the debates.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    Cookie said:

    Yes, true. And left-wing in an old-fashioned sort of way. Issues of land ownership, etc. (On which subject - it still rankles with me somewhat that there are places in the West Riding where one must pay to Go For A Walk - Bolton Abbey and Ingleton, for example. These seem like a bit of a throwback to a pre-1932 age.)

    That's coming back where they can do it already.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-68564929

    I'm expecting an update of the CRoW Act 2000 at some point in the text 2 Govt terms.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,389
    Can some Baxter that Redfield poll for me?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329
    It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Eabhal said:

    Sunak has just retweeted the Lib Dem boat thing, highlighting it to his 2.3 million followers.

    CCHQ have gone bananas

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1797607539452096558?t=0z9mOdFHgody1fohpZlB1Q&s=19

    It's not so much Sunak but the inept Tory Boy spod-nerds who are 'running' their social media operation. I have encountered farm shops with a better twitter game.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,389
    Sean_F said:

    It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.

    A new centre right party.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    This tweet might or might not be relevant to Farage’s presser

    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1797630031616938109?s=46
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Yeah at this stage my prediction they wouldn’t sink below 150 seats is looking rocky…

    Campaign looks to be focussing minds, but against them.
    True enough, but are they really 13% behind with the over 65s? Noone else other than Techne has them losing the grey vote. Redfields age curve is ridiculously flat.
    That's not to say wrong but I just don't buy it, and it's been consistent with them for weeks.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited June 2024
    Sky News are very pro-Labour in my view (to the point of being biased).

    If their MRP at 5pm is what we expect it to be, they are going to be all over it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110

    Glasgow is an absolutely belting city.
    Possibly not enough of that sexy Persimmon housing aesthetic for Barty.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    @JasonGroves1

    NEW: Penny Mordaunt to represent the Conservative Party in Friday night's 7-way TV debate on the BBC
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    Selebian said:

    What makes you think they haven't peaked already? :hushed:
    Or, indeed, eighteen months ago. That was way too early.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    Scott_xP said:

    Presidential campaign latest...

    @RedfieldWilton
    Largest EVER lead for Starmer over Sunak.

    Joint-lowest % EVER to pick Sunak.

    At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better PM for the UK? (31 May - 2 June)

    Keir Starmer 46% (+1)
    Rishi Sunak 26% (–)

    Changes +/- 25-27 May

    You have to feel a bit sorry for Rishi, being the Tory leader to take the hit because of the failures of Johnson, Truss, etc.
This discussion has been closed.