It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
Maybe if you're the leader of the Tory Party... but Labour needs the votes of the large majority of trans rights supporters.
Are there that many people who vote Labour on the basis of women having a penis?
Are there that many people who vote Tory on the basis of abolishing gender-neutral toilets? Probably not, in either case, but there is no use alienating them, to appeal to a similarly smallish number of other people, who will find five or ten other reasons not to vote for you anyway.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
This is PB. It's a General Election. We only get them once every half decade. YES WE GET OVER-EXCITED. It's what the whole site is for, it's like you're blaming a stud camel for getting the horn when he's got his once a year bunk up with the saucy dromedary from Baluchistan
Is there an echo in here? Why are you talking to yourself?
Because it's better than talking to a low-watt, mid-wit, 105 IQ surburban rizz-bypass no-mark nerdspazzer like you
You seem to have been rebooted into "absolute fucking nonsense" mode again, perhaps it's time for you to come back as Heathener who can at least use a full stop.
I'm in a particularly ebullient mood. Because tomorrow I'm off to A WHOLE NEW COUNTRY - one I've never been to!
In the rankings of EXCITING NEW COUNTRIES TO VISIT this is right down there with the worst. It is the Wick of Interesting Scottish Towns, the Newent of Beautiful England. However I love travel so much - and I've been to so many countries - ANY new country gets me unduly excited. I shall send one photo a day of dreadfully boring drinks in tediously un-scenic squares, or maybe live executions
On topic - the above is very useful but does not explain all. RW has the Cons leading Lab on undecideds by a princely 1% so even with a squeeze question you would be looking at a lead 9 points bigger than JLP. It seems JLP may be the Con equivalent of Survation for the Corbynites in 2017. Whether they will turn out to be as correct we shall see.
Though, of course, Corbyn did lose and even JLP still has us a metric mile away from even a hung Parliament
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
I just don’t understand this decision . She apologized and withdrew her comments and did a course . Something else must have happened behind the scenes.
Is she actually still any good at the job even forgetting all the baggage and risk? Five years ago she sounded a shell of the person of twenty years ago.
Well it should be upto her constituents to make that decision . It just seems very cruel given others have had the whip restored.
I heard from a reliable source is that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
I'm liking the new graphic on polling from Wikipedia: I do wonder if a combined Reform/Green squeeze will be the main change from the polling average to actual results. Not that it would change the headline result materially.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
This is PB. It's a General Election. We only get them once every half decade. YES WE GET OVER-EXCITED. It's what the whole site is for, it's like you're blaming a stud camel for getting the horn when he's got his once a year bunk up with the saucy dromedary from Baluchistan
Is there an echo in here? Why are you talking to yourself?
Because it's better than talking to a low-watt, mid-wit, 105 IQ surburban rizz-bypass no-mark nerdspazzer like you
You seem to have been rebooted into "absolute fucking nonsense" mode again, perhaps it's time for you to come back as Heathener who can at least use a full stop.
I'm in a particularly ebullient mood. Because tomorrow I'm off to A WHOLE NEW COUNTRY - one I've never been to!
In the rankings of EXCITING NEW COUNTRIES TO VISIT this is right down there with the worst. It is the Wick of Interesting Scottish Towns, the Newent of Beautiful England. However I love travel so much - and I've been to so many countries - ANY new country gets me unduly excited. I shall send one photo a day of dreadfully boring drinks in tediously un-scenic squares, or maybe live executions
Rwanda! You’re going to Rwanda!
Azerbaijan
Yawwwwwwwn. Azerbaijan, Went YONKS ago
It is fucking brilliant. I bought one kilo of fine fresh WILD caviar in the Baku black market- I literally snuck behind the sheep's-head stall with some semi-bearded babuskha to her secret fridge where she sold it to me - that kilo of cav that I bought for $5 would now be worth...
After the open letter writing nonsense, next is celeb endorsements. I presume we will be getting wall to wall celebs saying vote Labour shortly.
Please no, I still haven't gotten over Martin Freeman explaining once in a video that he was voting Labour because he was raised to be decent. Thanks Martin, what did that make the 70% of people who did not vote Labour?
After the open letter writing nonsense, next is celeb endorsements. I presume we will be getting wall to wall celebs saying vote Labour shortly.
Please no, I still haven't gotten over Martin Freeman explaining once in a video that he was voting Labour because he was raised to be decent. Thanks Martin, what did that make the 70% of people who did not vote Labour?
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
Not a lot of difference. If you look at how the DKs split - R&W have 20-19 to the Conservatives, JL& Partners 22-18 to the Conservatives - again, very little difference.
Take away the noise from the headline numbers and the truth is Labour's lead is 16-21 points currently.
It's also worth noting JL Partners fieldwork was last Friday and Saturday but the 12,000 sample R&W poll was later - starting Saturday and ending yesterday.
I appreciate for Conservative supporters the JL Partners poll is going to be talked up as a big sign of change - the truth is, it isn't.
I'm liking the new graphic on polling from Wikipedia: I do wonder if a combined Reform/Green squeeze will be the main change from the polling average to actual results. Not that it would change the headline result materially.
I prefer the squiggly line chart thingy, personally
"Geert Wilders eyes former spy chief Dick Schoof as Dutch prime minister “It will be a surprise to many that I’m standing here,” said likely new PM at press conference."
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Again, as I said downthread, look at the strength of support. If you like it, you might like it a bit. But if you dislike it, you strongly dislike it. So it's more likely to motivate people voting against it, than for it.
I was in the "undecided whether I'll just stay at home or actually vote Labour this time round" camp last week, now I'm in the "I will crawl naked on my bare belly across broken glass to vote Labour this time round, since the Tories think that forced fruit picking labour camps are a good idea and they need to be turfed out pronto lest they come up with any more of their horrible, authoritarian shit" camp.
I find your insight interesting, may I ask if you are a younger voter or what sort of age group you fall into?
Early 40s.
My opinions often out of whack with most people because I skew very far libertarian on the lib/authoritarian axis but very centrist on the left/right axis. "People should be free to make their own decisions as much as possible, and do what they want so long as it harms none" sorta sums up my rationale for most things. So an instinctive fear of big state leftists and also a fear of fashy state social conservatives.
Forcing people to do stuff against their will = bad in my book.
Can I ask a follow up question?
I'm philosophically libertarian (well, probably more anarchist) for exactly the reason you quote.
But in our interconnected, globalised world, is there really any decision that fits into the category "harms no-one"?
One example - I am a skydiver and many of my friends base jump. It would be an almost perfect example of your quote if we could only agree that you void any implicit contract with the NHS as you step off the phone mast in the darkness.
But I've seen too many people injure themselves and get air lifted to hospital at the public's expense.
So what meaningful decisions can you really make that harm no-one but yourself?
Once we accept the democratic welfare-state principle that we can vote ourselves well-being from other people, that philosophy stuff is outdated, because I can gain or lose from your choices around income or work schedule or even your personal life. Thus people end up supporting forced labour, and the permanent closure of pubs and nightclubs.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
This is PB. It's a General Election. We only get them once every half decade. YES WE GET OVER-EXCITED. It's what the whole site is for, it's like you're blaming a stud camel for getting the horn when he's got his once a year bunk up with the saucy dromedary from Baluchistan
Is there an echo in here? Why are you talking to yourself?
Because it's better than talking to a low-watt, mid-wit, 105 IQ surburban rizz-bypass no-mark nerdspazzer like you
You seem to have been rebooted into "absolute fucking nonsense" mode again, perhaps it's time for you to come back as Heathener who can at least use a full stop.
I'm in a particularly ebullient mood. Because tomorrow I'm off to A WHOLE NEW COUNTRY - one I've never been to!
In the rankings of EXCITING NEW COUNTRIES TO VISIT this is right down there with the worst. It is the Wick of Interesting Scottish Towns, the Newent of Beautiful England. However I love travel so much - and I've been to so many countries - ANY new country gets me unduly excited. I shall send one photo a day of dreadfully boring drinks in tediously un-scenic squares, or maybe live executions
Rwanda! You’re going to Rwanda!
Azerbaijan
Yawwwwwwwn. Azerbaijan, Went YONKS ago
It is fucking brilliant. I bought one kilo of fine fresh WILD caviar in the Baku black market- I literally snuck behind the sheep's-head stall with some semi-bearded babuskha to her secret fridge where she sold it to me - that kilo of cav that I bought for $5 would now be worth...
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Again, as I said downthread, look at the strength of support. If you like it, you might like it a bit. But if you dislike it, you strongly dislike it. So it's more likely to motivate people voting against it, than for it.
I was in the "undecided whether I'll just stay at home or actually vote Labour this time round" camp last week, now I'm in the "I will crawl naked on my bare belly across broken glass to vote Labour this time round, since the Tories think that forced fruit picking labour camps are a good idea and they need to be turfed out pronto lest they come up with any more of their horrible, authoritarian shit" camp.
I find your insight interesting, may I ask if you are a younger voter or what sort of age group you fall into?
Early 40s.
My opinions often out of whack with most people because I skew very far libertarian on the lib/authoritarian axis but very centrist on the left/right axis. "People should be free to make their own decisions as much as possible, and do what they want so long as it harms none" sorta sums up my rationale for most things. So an instinctive fear of big state leftists and also a fear of fashy state social conservatives.
Forcing people to do stuff against their will = bad in my book.
Can I ask a follow up question?
I'm philosophically libertarian (well, probably more anarchist) for exactly the reason you quote.
But in our interconnected, globalised world, is there really any decision that fits into the category "harms no-one"?
One example - I am a skydiver and many of my friends base jump. It would be an almost perfect example of your quote if we could only agree that you void any implicit contract with the NHS as you step off the phone mast in the darkness.
But I've seen too many people injure themselves and get air lifted to hospital at the public's expense.
So what meaningful decisions can you really make that harm no-one but yourself?
There's probably no such thing. But you can divide actions into primarily self regarding vs primarily other regarding as per JS Mill.
What are the chances you end up in hospital after skydiving? 0.1%? If they were 99% then it's different.
The way I see it, I'm guided by libertarian or classically liberal principles as much as possible in real life, while also accepting that no pure theoretical system survives first contact with the many compromises we all make as part of living in a vast, interconnected society of millions of individuals.
Pontiff said there was too much ‘faggotry’ in seminaries, Italian newspapers reported
The sad thing is this: Pope Francis says this sort of sh*t, and gives support to Russia in its imperialist, fascist war.
He's still possibly the best pope we've had in centuries.
Which says a great deal about the Catholic church and Popes...
A textbook case of an institution which long ago prioritised its own power and prestige over any purported mission.
Given its age possibly the ur-example..
I want to like Pope Francis; he seems much more forward-thinking than all of his predecessors (including the original Peter?). Then he says some sh*t and I despise him.
But at least he says some stuff I think is progressive, which is more than his predecessors.
Did he actually say 'faggotry'? I don't know what language he speaks - he'd be a Spanish speaker no? Perhaps the word is not so crude in the original language.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
I just don’t understand this decision . She apologized and withdrew her comments and did a course . Something else must have happened behind the scenes.
Is she actually still any good at the job even forgetting all the baggage and risk? Five years ago she sounded a shell of the person of twenty years ago.
Well it should be upto her constituents to make that decision . It just seems very cruel given others have had the whip restored.
I heard from a reliable source is that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
So Starmer's made the right call.
Well that would change things . That’s a red line for all parties .
After the open letter writing nonsense, next is celeb endorsements. I presume we will be getting wall to wall celebs saying vote Labour shortly.
Please no, I still haven't gotten over Martin Freeman explaining once in a video that he was voting Labour because he was raised to be decent. Thanks Martin, what did that make the 70% of people who did not vote Labour?
Scum.
Sadly, I think there's a strong cadre of people who think like that: that if you vote Tory you're guilty of some form of moral turpitude.
It's an outrage that some people might think there's a better option for the country.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
After the open letter writing nonsense, next is celeb endorsements. I presume we will be getting wall to wall celebs saying vote Labour shortly.
Please no, I still haven't gotten over Martin Freeman explaining once in a video that he was voting Labour because he was raised to be decent. Thanks Martin, what did that make the 70% of people who did not vote Labour?
Scum.
Sadly, I think there's a strong cadre of people who think like that: that if you vote Tory you're guilty of some form of moral turpitude.
It's an outrage that some people might think there's a better option for the country.
Have you ever thought about why some people might think that of the Tories?
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Again, as I said downthread, look at the strength of support. If you like it, you might like it a bit. But if you dislike it, you strongly dislike it. So it's more likely to motivate people voting against it, than for it.
I was in the "undecided whether I'll just stay at home or actually vote Labour this time round" camp last week, now I'm in the "I will crawl naked on my bare belly across broken glass to vote Labour this time round, since the Tories think that forced fruit picking labour camps are a good idea and they need to be turfed out pronto lest they come up with any more of their horrible, authoritarian shit" camp.
I find your insight interesting, may I ask if you are a younger voter or what sort of age group you fall into?
Early 40s.
My opinions often out of whack with most people because I skew very far libertarian on the lib/authoritarian axis but very centrist on the left/right axis. "People should be free to make their own decisions as much as possible, and do what they want so long as it harms none" sorta sums up my rationale for most things. So an instinctive fear of big state leftists and also a fear of fashy state social conservatives.
Forcing people to do stuff against their will = bad in my book.
Can I ask a follow up question?
I'm philosophically libertarian (well, probably more anarchist) for exactly the reason you quote.
But in our interconnected, globalised world, is there really any decision that fits into the category "harms no-one"?
One example - I am a skydiver and many of my friends base jump. It would be an almost perfect example of your quote if we could only agree that you void any implicit contract with the NHS as you step off the phone mast in the darkness.
But I've seen too many people injure themselves and get air lifted to hospital at the public's expense.
So what meaningful decisions can you really make that harm no-one but yourself?
Once we accept the democratic welfare-state principle that we can vote ourselves well-being from other people, that philosophy stuff is outdated, because I can gain or lose from your choices around income or work schedule or even your personal life. Thus people end up supporting forced labour, and the permanent closure of pubs and nightclubs.
Well yes, that's what I mean. I don't really understand how anyone can be a libertarian within a state that has taxation and welfare provision.
But presumably you would agree we gain more than we lose by having a democratic welfare-state?
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
Not a lot of difference. If you look at how the DKs split - R&W have 20-19 to the Conservatives, JL& Partners 22-18 to the Conservatives - again, very little difference.
Take away the noise from the headline numbers and the truth is Labour's lead is 16-21 points currently.
It's also worth noting JL Partners fieldwork was last Friday and Saturday but the 12,000 sample R&W poll was later - starting Saturday and ending yesterday.
I appreciate for Conservative supporters the JL Partners poll is going to be talked up as a big sign of change - the truth is, it isn't.
I think polls consistently get responses indicating a high turnout. I wouldn't read too much into that.
After the open letter writing nonsense, next is celeb endorsements. I presume we will be getting wall to wall celebs saying vote Labour shortly.
Please no, I still haven't gotten over Martin Freeman explaining once in a video that he was voting Labour because he was raised to be decent. Thanks Martin, what did that make the 70% of people who did not vote Labour?
Scum.
Sadly, I think there's a strong cadre of people who think like that: that if you vote Tory you're guilty of some form of moral turpitude.
It's an outrage that some people might think there's a better option for the country.
I do wonder who'd vote for the current iteration of the Conservative Party. It's well and truly lost my vote, sadly.
I know you think you have good reasons to vote Conservative; and I think I understand them. But for me, the negatives well and truly outweigh the positives.
After the open letter writing nonsense, next is celeb endorsements. I presume we will be getting wall to wall celebs saying vote Labour shortly.
Please no, I still haven't gotten over Martin Freeman explaining once in a video that he was voting Labour because he was raised to be decent. Thanks Martin, what did that make the 70% of people who did not vote Labour?
Scum.
Sadly, I think there's a strong cadre of people who think like that: that if you vote Tory you're guilty of some form of moral turpitude.
It's an outrage that some people might think there's a better option for the country.
I once spent a night helping out with tracking and tweeting out local election results with some people from across the country, most of them from big urban areas. It was a good night for the Tories, and there were many comments about not understanding how anyone could vote Tory.
The odd thing is people say things like that even when the Tories are riding high in the polls, never mind when they are low!
Conversely, though I come from the shires I don't think I've heard anywhere near as much 'bafflement' at the idea of people voting Labour, even though most tend not to in these parts.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
As a complete newcomer,I have beenfascinated reading comments over the last three hours. First there seemed to be a frenzy of excitement of a tory breakthrough, speculating it might be survation or r and w. Turns out both increased labour lead. Then the tumours of a single figure lead , which turned out to be 12.points. Reminded me of that Shakespear bloke. " 'full of sound and fury , signifying nothing.
I'm just trying to remember the name of the play which contains that subtle Shakespeare reference. It'll probably come to me tomorrow and tomorrow.
if you are suggesting that PB is an addictive and compelling narrative of tales told by idiots, this outrageous thought would be about right.
After the open letter writing nonsense, next is celeb endorsements. I presume we will be getting wall to wall celebs saying vote Labour shortly.
Please no, I still haven't gotten over Martin Freeman explaining once in a video that he was voting Labour because he was raised to be decent. Thanks Martin, what did that make the 70% of people who did not vote Labour?
Scum.
Sadly, I think there's a strong cadre of people who think like that: that if you vote Tory you're guilty of some form of moral turpitude.
It's an outrage that some people might think there's a better option for the country.
I have quite a few Tory voting friends. We just laugh about our polar opposite political persuasions and never fall out over it .
I’ll be honest though when it comes to Trump, I simply couldn’t stomach being friendly with someone who supported him. That’s just a red line for me .
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
As a complete newcomer,I have beenfascinated reading comments over the last three hours. First there seemed to be a frenzy of excitement of a tory breakthrough, speculating it might be survation or r and w. Turns out both increased labour lead. Then the tumours of a single figure lead , which turned out to be 12.points. Reminded me of that Shakespear bloke. " 'full of sound and fury , signifying nothing.
It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
I just don’t understand this decision . She apologized and withdrew her comments and did a course . Something else must have happened behind the scenes.
Is she actually still any good at the job even forgetting all the baggage and risk? Five years ago she sounded a shell of the person of twenty years ago.
Well it should be upto her constituents to make that decision . It just seems very cruel given others have had the whip restored.
I heard from a reliable source is that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
So Starmer's made the right call.
Still will be a fuss, but if he has that answer ready to go it blunts it - if she'd been selected and then campaigned for JC it'd be too late to meaningfully punish her, so pinning her down like that (and her not lying about it) would be smart.
After the open letter writing nonsense, next is celeb endorsements. I presume we will be getting wall to wall celebs saying vote Labour shortly.
Please no, I still haven't gotten over Martin Freeman explaining once in a video that he was voting Labour because he was raised to be decent. Thanks Martin, what did that make the 70% of people who did not vote Labour?
Scum.
Sadly, I think there's a strong cadre of people who think like that: that if you vote Tory you're guilty of some form of moral turpitude.
It's an outrage that some people might think there's a better option for the country.
A very few might think that, I don't.
Conservatives are decent, ordinary people with whom I simply disagree. I would argue since the Party they support has led the Government for the past 14 years it's not unreasonable to hold that Party to account for the state of the country.
It doesn't seem as though the Conservative Party wants to stand on its record of Government or governance or explain how we are where we are. I'll be the first to concede they have been unfortunate - a pandemic and a war in Europe aren't normal and usual events but the fact remains they have happened on the Conservative watch and that party has had to respond both to the events themselves and with their impacts.
Issues relating to the care of vulnerable adults and children, the problems of housing and of our transport infrastructure (to name but three) have been with us for a long time and the response of this Government, inasmuch as there has been one, has been sub-optimal to be charitable.
As a complete newcomer,I have beenfascinated reading comments over the last three hours. First there seemed to be a frenzy of excitement of a tory breakthrough, speculating it might be survation or r and w. Turns out both increased labour lead. Then the tumours of a single figure lead , which turned out to be 12.points. Reminded me of that Shakespear bloke. " 'full of sound and fury , signifying nothing.
'A tale told by an idiot': that's just 17th century idiom for 'I read about it on Guido's blog'.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
That's actually about as good a defence of this government as I think it's possible to write, congratulations. I mean, I'm not sure it's entirely factually accurate, but it's certainly a better attempt at defending their record than I've heard any member of the government make.
As a complete newcomer,I have beenfascinated reading comments over the last three hours. First there seemed to be a frenzy of excitement of a tory breakthrough, speculating it might be survation or r and w. Turns out both increased labour lead. Then the tumours of a single figure lead , which turned out to be 12.points. Reminded me of that Shakespear bloke. " 'full of sound and fury , signifying nothing.
I'm just trying to remember the name of the play which contains that subtle Shakespeare reference. It'll probably come to me tomorrow and tomorrow.
if you are suggesting that PB is an addictive and compelling narrative of tales told by idiots, this outrageous thought would be about right.
How dare you, sir!
I resemble that last remark.
Pistols for two upon Hyde Park, breakfast at Wilton’s for one.
It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
I just don’t understand this decision . She apologized and withdrew her comments and did a course . Something else must have happened behind the scenes.
Is she actually still any good at the job even forgetting all the baggage and risk? Five years ago she sounded a shell of the person of twenty years ago.
Well it should be upto her constituents to make that decision . It just seems very cruel given others have had the whip restored.
I heard from a reliable source is that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
So Starmer's made the right call.
That wouldn't surprise me, but she is mentally a shadow of her former self. Time for her to retire.
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
Not a lot of difference. If you look at how the DKs split - R&W have 20-19 to the Conservatives, JL& Partners 22-18 to the Conservatives - again, very little difference.
Take away the noise from the headline numbers and the truth is Labour's lead is 16-21 points currently.
It's also worth noting JL Partners fieldwork was last Friday and Saturday but the 12,000 sample R&W poll was later - starting Saturday and ending yesterday.
I appreciate for Conservative supporters the JL Partners poll is going to be talked up as a big sign of change - the truth is, it isn't.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
Er. what?
"Vomit inducing sexual peccadillos"?
It must take something pretty extreme to make a tough Tory nut like you from Basingstoke reach for the puke bucket, what was it? Exactly??
Lol Labour have apparently deleted their Business leaders letter. Too many fire and rehire merchants on it. Snicker
We see this letter writing nonsense every GE. It always falls apart. Everybody knows its run by and signed overwhelmingly by already well know partisan supporters. I don't know why they do it.
Remember the ones in COVID were "leading scientists" say...and within a few hours it was clear it was the lab cleaner, some students not even doing degrees in science, etc.
Labour is circulating one for NHS employees to sign (with donate pop-up).
Are civil servants allowed to campaign in an official capacity?
No, but nurses and nhs staff aren’t civil servants.
Civil servants who are outside the senior levels and aren’t in politically restricted roles can, with permission, campaign in a personal capacity, e.g. letter drops etc.
Bit of basic maths: if undecided split 50:50 the Lab lead narrows; eg
Original poll:
Lab 45 Con 25 Others 30
Supposed there were 20% undecided who then split 50:50 Lab:Con
That then gives:
Lab 55 Con 35 Others 30
Scale back to 100 gives result:
Lab 45.8 Con 29.2 Others 25
So lead of 20% falls to 16.6%.
The nowcasters tell us the story now, the adjusters what the story will be on July 4. They should draw nearer each other over the last month of campaigning. Redfield supports a narrowing to come, JLP models it
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
Not a lot of difference. If you look at how the DKs split - R&W have 20-19 to the Conservatives, JL& Partners 22-18 to the Conservatives - again, very little difference.
Take away the noise from the headline numbers and the truth is Labour's lead is 16-21 points currently.
It's also worth noting JL Partners fieldwork was last Friday and Saturday but the 12,000 sample R&W poll was later - starting Saturday and ending yesterday.
I appreciate for Conservative supporters the JL Partners poll is going to be talked up as a big sign of change - the truth is, it isn't.
JLP, like Opinium, provides a final outcome projection based on polling and in-house interpretations of it. The others are snap shots of current voting intention. That's why they produce different headline numbers. It is very interesting that the underlying data is so similar. But I think you could look at Survation and at R&W, and then at JLP, and think they all make sense. A final Labour lead of 12 based on current snapshot polling does not seem too outlandish to me.
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Again, as I said downthread, look at the strength of support. If you like it, you might like it a bit. But if you dislike it, you strongly dislike it. So it's more likely to motivate people voting against it, than for it.
I was in the "undecided whether I'll just stay at home or actually vote Labour this time round" camp last week, now I'm in the "I will crawl naked on my bare belly across broken glass to vote Labour this time round, since the Tories think that forced fruit picking labour camps are a good idea and they need to be turfed out pronto lest they come up with any more of their horrible, authoritarian shit" camp.
I find your insight interesting, may I ask if you are a younger voter or what sort of age group you fall into?
Early 40s.
My opinions often out of whack with most people because I skew very far libertarian on the lib/authoritarian axis but very centrist on the left/right axis. "People should be free to make their own decisions as much as possible, and do what they want so long as it harms none" sorta sums up my rationale for most things. So an instinctive fear of big state leftists and also a fear of fashy state social conservatives.
Forcing people to do stuff against their will = bad in my book.
Can I ask a follow up question?
I'm philosophically libertarian (well, probably more anarchist) for exactly the reason you quote.
But in our interconnected, globalised world, is there really any decision that fits into the category "harms no-one"?
One example - I am a skydiver and many of my friends base jump. It would be an almost perfect example of your quote if we could only agree that you void any implicit contract with the NHS as you step off the phone mast in the darkness.
But I've seen too many people injure themselves and get air lifted to hospital at the public's expense.
So what meaningful decisions can you really make that harm no-one but yourself?
There's probably no such thing. But you can divide actions into primarily self regarding vs primarily other regarding as per JS Mill.
What are the chances you end up in hospital after skydiving? 0.1%? If they were 99% then it's different.
The way I see it, I'm guided by libertarian or classically liberal principles as much as possible in real life, while also accepting that no pure theoretical system survives first contact with the many compromises we all make as part of living in a vast, interconnected society of millions of individuals.
Yes, very fair. Thanks for the reply.
And as for your question, depends what type of skydiving you do. Canopy piloting involves pointing your parachute directly at the ground, accelerating to ~100mph and hoping you'll plane out before you get to zero altitude. Percentage chances of a hospital appointment roughly correspond to where you fall on the scale of 1 to idiot.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
Er. what?
"Vomit inducing sexual peccadillos"?
It must take something pretty extreme to make a tough Tory nut like you from Basingstoke reach for the puke bucket, what was it? Exactly??
Asking for a friend, obvs
Chris Pincher, Charlie Elphicke, Neil Parish, Mark Menzies.. the list goes on. But it's worth noting most aren't like that.
And, if you think the next Parliament will be totally clean, then I have a bridge to sell you.
Lol Labour have apparently deleted their Business leaders letter. Too many fire and rehire merchants on it. Snicker
We see this letter writing nonsense every GE. It always falls apart. Everybody knows its run by and signed overwhelmingly by already well know partisan supporters. I don't know why they do it.
Remember the ones in COVID were "leading scientists" say...and within a few hours it was clear it was the lab cleaner, some students not even doing degrees in science, etc.
Labour is circulating one for NHS employees to sign (with donate pop-up).
Are civil servants allowed to campaign in an official capacity?
No, but nurses and nhs staff aren’t civil servants.
Civil servants who are outside the senior levels and aren’t in politically restricted roles can, with permission, campaign in a personal capacity, e.g. letter drops etc.
Would such permission be needed to sign this? If it’s asking for your job title it is surely in an official capacity.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
That's actually about as good a defence of this government as I think it's possible to write, congratulations. I mean, I'm not sure it's entirely factually accurate, but it's certainly a better attempt at defending their record than I've heard any member of the government make.
Blaming or finger pointing about voters for their choice, I always find very low and wrongheaded. Instead people should be asking why those people choose to vote that way.
e.g. not exactly news I don't like Jezza*. But I absolutely understand why people were voting for him, particularly in 2017. There are some serious problems that have only worsen over the past 20 years, and he was addressing those and proposing solutions (the fact that I don't believe those solutions would work any better than when they had previously tried is irrelevant).
Just dismissing that whole group as (insert insult) doesn't achieve anything.
Also the reality is the vast vast majority of the electorate aren't really hardcore one way or the other. They might lean right or left ideologically, but don't actually spend that much time thinking about nor are instantly anti any solution proposed juts because it came from the other side. It certainly doesn't say anything about the decency of the group.
* Actually I don't really hate the guy, I just think he is wrong about basically everything.
It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
I just don’t understand this decision . She apologized and withdrew her comments and did a course . Something else must have happened behind the scenes.
Is she actually still any good at the job even forgetting all the baggage and risk? Five years ago she sounded a shell of the person of twenty years ago.
Well it should be upto her constituents to make that decision . It just seems very cruel given others have had the whip restored.
I heard from a reliable source is that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
So Starmer's made the right call.
That wouldn't surprise me, but she is mentally a shadow of her former self. Time for her to retire.
I really can't see Diane standing as an independent, she's 70 and ready to retire. To be honest, I think Corbyn would have stood down this time had things gone differently and the CLP had a free hand in selecting his successor but he doesn't want to end his career as a loser. The one thing that inspires Corbyn is a fight against the establishment.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
Er. what?
"Vomit inducing sexual peccadillos"?
It must take something pretty extreme to make a tough Tory nut like you from Basingstoke reach for the puke bucket, what was it? Exactly??
Asking for a friend, obvs
Chris Pincher, Charlie Elphicke, Neil Parish, Mark Menzies.. the list goes on. But it's worth noting most aren't like that.
And, if you think the next Parliament will be totally clean, then I have a bridge to sell you.
With 650 MPs an argument could potentially be made that the number is possibly on the low side, or we are probably missing quite a few.
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Again, as I said downthread, look at the strength of support. If you like it, you might like it a bit. But if you dislike it, you strongly dislike it. So it's more likely to motivate people voting against it, than for it.
I was in the "undecided whether I'll just stay at home or actually vote Labour this time round" camp last week, now I'm in the "I will crawl naked on my bare belly across broken glass to vote Labour this time round, since the Tories think that forced fruit picking labour camps are a good idea and they need to be turfed out pronto lest they come up with any more of their horrible, authoritarian shit" camp.
I find your insight interesting, may I ask if you are a younger voter or what sort of age group you fall into?
Early 40s.
My opinions often out of whack with most people because I skew very far libertarian on the lib/authoritarian axis but very centrist on the left/right axis. "People should be free to make their own decisions as much as possible, and do what they want so long as it harms none" sorta sums up my rationale for most things. So an instinctive fear of big state leftists and also a fear of fashy state social conservatives.
Forcing people to do stuff against their will = bad in my book.
Can I ask a follow up question?
I'm philosophically libertarian (well, probably more anarchist) for exactly the reason you quote.
But in our interconnected, globalised world, is there really any decision that fits into the category "harms no-one"?
One example - I am a skydiver and many of my friends base jump. It would be an almost perfect example of your quote if we could only agree that you void any implicit contract with the NHS as you step off the phone mast in the darkness.
But I've seen too many people injure themselves and get air lifted to hospital at the public's expense.
So what meaningful decisions can you really make that harm no-one but yourself?
Once we accept the democratic welfare-state principle that we can vote ourselves well-being from other people, that philosophy stuff is outdated, because I can gain or lose from your choices around income or work schedule or even your personal life. Thus people end up supporting forced labour, and the permanent closure of pubs and nightclubs.
Well yes, that's what I mean. I don't really understand how anyone can be a libertarian within a state that has taxation and welfare provision.
But presumably you would agree we gain more than we lose by having a democratic welfare-state?
Yes, but it means a new philosophical perspective is required, lest we end up with a state that veils selfish avarice of the majority under the language of equity and rights,
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Again, as I said downthread, look at the strength of support. If you like it, you might like it a bit. But if you dislike it, you strongly dislike it. So it's more likely to motivate people voting against it, than for it.
I was in the "undecided whether I'll just stay at home or actually vote Labour this time round" camp last week, now I'm in the "I will crawl naked on my bare belly across broken glass to vote Labour this time round, since the Tories think that forced fruit picking labour camps are a good idea and they need to be turfed out pronto lest they come up with any more of their horrible, authoritarian shit" camp.
I find your insight interesting, may I ask if you are a younger voter or what sort of age group you fall into?
Early 40s.
My opinions often out of whack with most people because I skew very far libertarian on the lib/authoritarian axis but very centrist on the left/right axis. "People should be free to make their own decisions as much as possible, and do what they want so long as it harms none" sorta sums up my rationale for most things. So an instinctive fear of big state leftists and also a fear of fashy state social conservatives.
Forcing people to do stuff against their will = bad in my book.
Can I ask a follow up question?
I'm philosophically libertarian (well, probably more anarchist) for exactly the reason you quote.
But in our interconnected, globalised world, is there really any decision that fits into the category "harms no-one"?
One example - I am a skydiver and many of my friends base jump. It would be an almost perfect example of your quote if we could only agree that you void any implicit contract with the NHS as you step off the phone mast in the darkness.
But I've seen too many people injure themselves and get air lifted to hospital at the public's expense.
So what meaningful decisions can you really make that harm no-one but yourself?
There's probably no such thing. But you can divide actions into primarily self regarding vs primarily other regarding as per JS Mill.
What are the chances you end up in hospital after skydiving? 0.1%? If they were 99% then it's different.
The way I see it, I'm guided by libertarian or classically liberal principles as much as possible in real life, while also accepting that no pure theoretical system survives first contact with the many compromises we all make as part of living in a vast, interconnected society of millions of individuals.
Yes, very fair. Thanks for the reply.
And as for your question, depends what type of skydiving you do. Canopy piloting involves pointing your parachute directly at the ground, accelerating to ~100mph and hoping you'll plane out before you get to zero altitude. Percentage chances of a hospital appointment roughly correspond to where you fall on the scale of 1 to idiot.
But the distribution is skewed. Most skydiving fuck ups are straight-to-morgue
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
Lol Labour have apparently deleted their Business leaders letter. Too many fire and rehire merchants on it. Snicker
We see this letter writing nonsense every GE. It always falls apart. Everybody knows its run by and signed overwhelmingly by already well know partisan supporters. I don't know why they do it.
Remember the ones in COVID were "leading scientists" say...and within a few hours it was clear it was the lab cleaner, some students not even doing degrees in science, etc.
Labour is circulating one for NHS employees to sign (with donate pop-up).
Are civil servants allowed to campaign in an official capacity?
No, but nurses and nhs staff aren’t civil servants.
Civil servants who are outside the senior levels and aren’t in politically restricted roles can, with permission, campaign in a personal capacity, e.g. letter drops etc.
Would such permission be needed to sign this? If it’s asking for your job title it is surely in an official capacity.
NHS workers aren’t civil servants and not bound by the same restrictions.
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
...
I'll stop you right there. Here are the turnouts in recent general elections (and the Brexit referendum), back to the last general election with turnout of around 75%.
Is it remotely likely that turnout will be in the 72-78% range? I think this is more likely to be a sign that people more likely to vote are more likely to respond to opinion polls - which raises the question as to whether this peculiar, opinion poll-responding subset of people is representative of those who will vote.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
Or we could always hope for a Lib Dem government.
Then again, unicorns don't exist...
The smirk on Ed Davey's face alone should preclude any sensible person from voting for that.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
Or we could always hope for a Lib Dem government.
Then again, unicorns don't exist...
The smirk on Ed Davey's face alone should preclude any sensible person from voting for that.
Well I think all of us had a good laugh at this expense today.
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
...
I'll stop you right there. here are the turnouts in recent general elections (and the Brexit referendum), back to the last general election with turnout of around 75%.
Is it remotely likely that turnout will be int he 72-78% range? I think this is more likely to be a sign that people more likely to vote are more likely to respond to opinion polls - which raises the question as to whether this peculiar, opinion poll-responding subset of people is representative of those who will vote.
It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
I just don’t understand this decision . She apologized and withdrew her comments and did a course . Something else must have happened behind the scenes.
Is she actually still any good at the job even forgetting all the baggage and risk? Five years ago she sounded a shell of the person of twenty years ago.
Well it should be upto her constituents to make that decision . It just seems very cruel given others have had the whip restored.
I heard from a reliable source is that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
So Starmer's made the right call.
That wouldn't surprise me, but she is mentally a shadow of her former self. Time for her to retire.
I really can't see Diane standing as an independent, she's 70 and ready to retire. To be honest, I think Corbyn would have stood down this time had things gone differently and the CLP had a free hand in selecting his successor but he doesn't want to end his career as a loser. The one thing that inspires Corbyn is a fight against the establishment.
She'd make quite a good token leftie on GBnews if she could stick it and brain wise she's OK. Quite tempting to team her up with Portillo again - they had good chemistry.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
Actually, having teased you about the "sexual peccadilos" that induced you to vomit (tho I am curious what they are??), I would venture to agree with @OnlyLivingBoy - your statement, through gritted teeth, is likely the best defence of this Tory government I have heard, anywhere. Yes, the Tories are shit, but we live in shit times, and Labour would be shitter
It's not unfair, and you phrase it rather well
However, I CANNOT forgive the Tory govt 2 MILLION net migrants in about 3 years, it is utterly inexcusable, in one year we had more migramts that the last two decades of the 20th century combined, and this will forever alter our nation, and not, I fear, for the better. For that they must be punished, if not extinguished, they did it deliberately and I loathe them
Sadly, there is no sane party of the right to replace them, so the only way to smite them is to vote Labour who will almost certainly be worse. But that is the system we have. At least Labour might have the guts to reform the NHS, they may have no choice, fiscally
For me it is Sir Kir Royale Starmer, PM, First Lord of the Treasure, and I ABHOR him
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
I still feel quite at sea in terms of predictions at the moment. Gut still says Tories on 160-200. Probably at the upper end of that range. But I would like to see more evidence of a shift towards them in the polls.
I think the big moment for me will be when the Tories pledge to abolish IHT as their headline manifesto pledge (we all know it’s coming). If that does not shift the polls, then I may need to reassess.
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
Not a lot of difference. If you look at how the DKs split - R&W have 20-19 to the Conservatives, JL& Partners 22-18 to the Conservatives - again, very little difference.
Take away the noise from the headline numbers and the truth is Labour's lead is 16-21 points currently.
It's also worth noting JL Partners fieldwork was last Friday and Saturday but the 12,000 sample R&W poll was later - starting Saturday and ending yesterday.
I appreciate for Conservative supporters the JL Partners poll is going to be talked up as a big sign of change - the truth is, it isn't.
JLP, like Opinium, provides a final outcome projection based on polling and in-house interpretations of it. The others are snap shots of current voting intention. That's why they produce different headline numbers. It is very interesting that the underlying data is so similar. But I think you could look at Survation and at R&W, and then at JLP, and think they all make sense. A final Labour lead of 12 based on current snapshot polling does not seem too outlandish to me.
It all hinges on whether the forecast assumptions are correct, if the data are so similar. They may be, or maybe not.
What we need to establish is this: if the Tories get an absolute hiding, will the British Right introspect at all or will they just blame it all on feckless old Boris and doltish old Rishi?
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
Not a lot of difference. If you look at how the DKs split - R&W have 20-19 to the Conservatives, JL& Partners 22-18 to the Conservatives - again, very little difference.
Take away the noise from the headline numbers and the truth is Labour's lead is 16-21 points currently.
It's also worth noting JL Partners fieldwork was last Friday and Saturday but the 12,000 sample R&W poll was later - starting Saturday and ending yesterday.
I appreciate for Conservative supporters the JL Partners poll is going to be talked up as a big sign of change - the truth is, it isn't.
JLP, like Opinium, provides a final outcome projection based on polling and in-house interpretations of it. The others are snap shots of current voting intention. That's why they produce different headline numbers. It is very interesting that the underlying data is so similar. But I think you could look at Survation and at R&W, and then at JLP, and think they all make sense. A final Labour lead of 12 based on current snapshot polling does not seem too outlandish to me.
It all hinges on whether the forecast assumptions are correct, if the data are so similar. They may be, or maybe not.
JLP are very much treat all unknown as closet Tory voters
1) I just dont believe that's true 2) even if it is it's in landslide rather than destruction territory...
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
Er. what?
"Vomit inducing sexual peccadillos"?
It must take something pretty extreme to make a tough Tory nut like you from Basingstoke reach for the puke bucket, what was it? Exactly??
Asking for a friend, obvs
Chris Pincher, Charlie Elphicke, Neil Parish, Mark Menzies.. the list goes on. But it's worth noting most aren't like that.
And, if you think the next Parliament will be totally clean, then I have a bridge to sell you.
Aren't we just talking run of the mill adultery, groping, secret gayness, some BDSM, allegations of rape, I dunno. Nothing that would make the average punter chuck his guts. No bestiality or pedo weirdness, unless I missed some scandal?
Indeed this Tory government has been relatively mild on that front, tho that might be because we are all so jaded and watching people wank pandas on TikTok
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
What we need to establish is this: if the Tories get and absolute hiding, will the British Right introspect at all or will they just blame it all on feckless old Boris and doltish old Rishi?
The blame game will start on 4th and it will be that the Tories weren’t (in no particular order):
A) Brexity enough B ) Anti-woke enough C) Anti-immigration enough D) Mean to everyone enough
I would like to think the party will avoid a lurch to the right. But I really can’t see that, sadly.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
Actually, having teased you about the "sexual peccadilos" that induced you to vomit (tho I am curious what they are??), I would venture to agree with @OnlyLivingBoy - your statement, through gritted teeth, is likely the best defence of this Tory government I have heard, anywhere. Yes, the Tories are shit, but we live in shit times, and Labour would be shitter
It's not unfair, and you phrase it rather well
However, I CANNOT forgive the Tory govt 2 MILLION net migrants in about 3 years, it is utterly inexcusable, in one year we had more migramts that the last two decades of the 20th century combined, and this will forever alter our nation, and not, I fear, for the better. For that they must be punished, if not extinguished, they did it deliberately and I loathe them
Sadly, there is no sane party of the right to replace them, so the only way to smite them is to vote Labour who will almost certainly be worse. But that is the system we have. At least Labour might have the guts to reform the NHS, they may have no choice, fiscally
For me it is Sir Kir Royale Starmer, PM, First Lord of the Treasure, and I ABHOR him
Fair enough, as long as you accept that if you cut off your nose to spite your face you will still lose your nose.
Jordan Peterson has said he will no longer visit the UK if Starmer is elected Prime Minister.
It is therefore with heavy heart that I will be voting Labour: there is no enthusiasm in my choice, just the cold recognition that a Britain with no Jordan Peterson is a happier, better place.
What a bloody weird way for him to put it. He's not a UK citizen as far as I know, so he's basically saying he won't visit us on his holidays if Labour win?
He’s a right-wing social media influencer. He’s just posturing. That’s all they do.
Naturally, but the type of posturing can be revealing.
I think a problem a lot of people have when they become middling famous and garner an online following is they get a rush from the acclaim and start to devolve into a parody of themselves, repeating the same old points in an ever more extreme way to please a fanbase (or provoke a hatebase) and inserting themselves into matters they know very little about.
Sometimes they are self aware about it, sometimes they aren't, but if someone is treating his own not visiting a country as some kind of grand statement, I think it shows the ego has really started to get to them.
Wait: are you talking about Jordan Peterson or Matt Goodwin or Owen Jones?
What we need to establish is this: if the Tories get an absolute hiding, will the British Right introspect at all or will they just blame it all on feckless old Boris and doltish old Rishi?
Which option will be most comforting to the party membership? There's your answer.
It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
I just don’t understand this decision . She apologized and withdrew her comments and did a course . Something else must have happened behind the scenes.
Is she actually still any good at the job even forgetting all the baggage and risk? Five years ago she sounded a shell of the person of twenty years ago.
Well it should be upto her constituents to make that decision . It just seems very cruel given others have had the whip restored.
I heard from a reliable source is that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
So Starmer's made the right call.
That wouldn't surprise me, but she is mentally a shadow of her former self. Time for her to retire.
I really can't see Diane standing as an independent, she's 70 and ready to retire. To be honest, I think Corbyn would have stood down this time had things gone differently and the CLP had a free hand in selecting his successor but he doesn't want to end his career as a loser. The one thing that inspires Corbyn is a fight against the establishment.
She'd make quite a good token leftie on GBnews if she could stick it and brain wise she's OK. Quite tempting to team her up with Portillo again - they had good chemistry.
One of those MPs not really suited, for better and worse, for the front benches. There's dozens of them getting along just fine without trying their hand at ministerial or shadow ministerial office.
A white Labour candidate who publicly apologised after saying he had the “worst tan possible for a black man” at a Black History Month event privately dismissed criticism as being “part of a smear campaign” against him.
Pontiff said there was too much ‘faggotry’ in seminaries, Italian newspapers reported
The sad thing is this: Pope Francis says this sort of sh*t, and gives support to Russia in its imperialist, fascist war.
He's still possibly the best pope we've had in centuries.
Which says a great deal about the Catholic church and Popes...
A textbook case of an institution which long ago prioritised its own power and prestige over any purported mission.
Given its age possibly the ur-example..
I want to like Pope Francis; he seems much more forward-thinking than all of his predecessors (including the original Peter?). Then he says some sh*t and I despise him.
But at least he says some stuff I think is progressive, which is more than his predecessors.
Did he actually say 'faggotry'? I don't know what language he speaks - he'd be a Spanish speaker no? Perhaps the word is not so crude in the original language.
He’s Argentinian which means a strong cultural connection with Italy, so I imagine he has some understanding of the language. I’ve managed thus far not to have heard the term frociaggini let alone be outraged by it, but I imagine Francis has some awareness of the nuances.
Jordan Peterson has said he will no longer visit the UK if Starmer is elected Prime Minister.
It is therefore with heavy heart that I will be voting Labour: there is no enthusiasm in my choice, just the cold recognition that a Britain with no Jordan Peterson is a happier, better place.
What a bloody weird way for him to put it. He's not a UK citizen as far as I know, so he's basically saying he won't visit us on his holidays if Labour win?
He’s a right-wing social media influencer. He’s just posturing. That’s all they do.
Naturally, but the type of posturing can be revealing.
I think a problem a lot of people have when they become middling famous and garner an online following is they get a rush from the acclaim and start to devolve into a parody of themselves, repeating the same old points in an ever more extreme way to please a fanbase (or provoke a hatebase) and inserting themselves into matters they know very little about.
Sometimes they are self aware about it, sometimes they aren't, but if someone is treating his own not visiting a country as some kind of grand statement, I think it shows the ego has really started to get to them.
Wait: are you talking about Jordan Peterson or Matt Goodwin or Owen Jones?
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
You've got to do what you think is right.
So do I.
Indeed, we all do.
I hope that in 4-5 years time then we are able to be on the same side again in politics. That depends probably in no small part in who replaces Sunak and what lessons are learnt.
If the Tories become the party of having people keep more of their own income we work hard for again, then I will support them again.
If the Tories become the party of having everyone have the opportunity to own their own home again, then I will support them again.
If I support them now, when they stand against what attracted me to the Party, then what's the point? Simply not being Labour is not enough.
I have to say that Diane Abbott is far from my cup of tea, but I do feel she has been unfairly done by there. And the “you can retire a Labour MP” thing just looks like knife twisting. If I were her I’d tell them to p*ss off.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
Or we could always hope for a Lib Dem government.
Then again, unicorns don't exist...
The smirk on Ed Davey's face alone should preclude any sensible person from voting for that.
You say that; but it's actually meaningless. Attack policy and actions. It's the same as attacking Sunak because he's short, or Starmer because he has a constant rabbit-in-headlights look.
Please, give me a solid reason to vote Conservative. I have in the past, before Boris. 'Smirks' aren't a reason.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
Or we could always hope for a Lib Dem government.
Then again, unicorns don't exist...
The smirk on Ed Davey's face alone should preclude any sensible person from voting for that.
You say that; but it's actually meaningless. Attack policy and actions. It's the same as attacking Sunak because he's short, or Starmer because he has a constant rabbit-in-headlights look.
Please, give me a solid reason to vote Conservative. I have in the past, before Boris. 'Smirks' aren't a reason.
What we need to establish is this: if the Tories get an absolute hiding, will the British Right introspect at all or will they just blame it all on feckless old Boris and doltish old Rishi?
Which option will be most comforting to the party membership? There's your answer.
Sunak toppled Boris, Hunt challenged Boris for the leadership, if they lead the party to heavy defeat it is hardly surprising if the membership conclude a shift right back to Boris style populism is the way.
Had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat a different conclusion may have been drawn but Rishi couldn't wait and toppled him.
Comments
Though, of course, Corbyn did lose and even JLP still has us a metric mile away from even a hung Parliament
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So Starmer's made the right call.
I do wonder if a combined Reform/Green squeeze will be the main change from the polling average to actual results. Not that it would change the headline result materially.
It is fucking brilliant. I bought one kilo of fine fresh WILD caviar in the Baku black market- I literally snuck behind the sheep's-head stall with some semi-bearded babuskha to her secret fridge where she sold it to me - that kilo of cav that I bought for $5 would now be worth...
£3,870
https://caviar.co.uk/product/caviar-royal-beluga-1kg/
After that things got mad. Azerbaijan is cray cray. Sadly where I am going is nowhere near as interesting as AZERBAIJAN
Least surprising news of the day. The way the allegations kept shifting meant even the cheerleaders knew there was really nothing there.
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
The sample of those likely to vote as follows:
JL Partners
Labour: 39%
Conservative 23%
Liberal Democrats: 9%
Reform 9%
Don't Know 10%
Survation:
Labour: 42%
Conservative 21.5%
Liberal Democrats: 10%
Reform: 7%
Don't Know 10%
Redfield & Wilton:
Labour: 41%
Conservative: 20%
Reform: 11%
Liberal Democrats: 8%
Don't Know 11%
Not a lot of difference. If you look at how the DKs split - R&W have 20-19 to the Conservatives, JL& Partners 22-18 to the Conservatives - again, very little difference.
Take away the noise from the headline numbers and the truth is Labour's lead is 16-21 points currently.
It's also worth noting JL Partners fieldwork was last Friday and Saturday but the 12,000 sample R&W poll was later - starting Saturday and ending yesterday.
I appreciate for Conservative supporters the JL Partners poll is going to be talked up as a big sign of change - the truth is, it isn't.
“It will be a surprise to many that I’m standing here,” said likely new PM at press conference."
https://www.politico.eu/article/geert-wilders-eyes-former-intelligence-agency-boss-as-dutch-prime-minister/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/16/the-thinnest-of-thin-gruels/
What are the chances you end up in hospital after skydiving? 0.1%? If they were 99% then it's different.
The way I see it, I'm guided by libertarian or classically liberal principles as much as possible in real life, while also accepting that no pure theoretical system survives first contact with the many compromises we all make as part of living in a vast, interconnected society of millions of individuals.
It's an outrage that some people might think there's a better option for the country.
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
But presumably you would agree we gain more than we lose by having a democratic welfare-state?
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1795079809049227425
I know you think you have good reasons to vote Conservative; and I think I understand them. But for me, the negatives well and truly outweigh the positives.
The odd thing is people say things like that even when the Tories are riding high in the polls, never mind when they are low!
Conversely, though I come from the shires I don't think I've heard anywhere near as much 'bafflement' at the idea of people voting Labour, even though most tend not to in these parts.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
if you are suggesting that PB is an addictive and compelling narrative of tales told by idiots, this outrageous thought would be about right.
I’ll be honest though when it comes to Trump, I simply couldn’t stomach being friendly with someone who supported him. That’s just a red line for me .
And who knows, maybe that gives the next Tory leader a chance to do a Starmer.
Then again, unicorns don't exist...
Conservatives are decent, ordinary people with whom I simply disagree. I would argue since the Party they support has led the Government for the past 14 years it's not unreasonable to hold that Party to account for the state of the country.
It doesn't seem as though the Conservative Party wants to stand on its record of Government or governance or explain how we are where we are. I'll be the first to concede they have been unfortunate - a pandemic and a war in Europe aren't normal and usual events but the fact remains they have happened on the Conservative watch and that party has had to respond both to the events themselves and with their impacts.
Issues relating to the care of vulnerable adults and children, the problems of housing and of our transport infrastructure (to name but three) have been with us for a long time and the response of this Government, inasmuch as there has been one, has been sub-optimal to be charitable.
I resemble that last remark.
Pistols for two upon Hyde Park, breakfast at Wilton’s for one.
Original poll:
Lab 45
Con 25
Others 30
Supposed there were 20% undecided who then split 50:50 Lab:Con
That then gives:
Lab 55
Con 35
Others 30
Scale back to 100 gives result:
Lab 45.8
Con 29.2
Others 25
So lead of 20% falls to 16.6%.
To the pollsters I say: 75% my arse.
"Vomit inducing sexual peccadillos"?
It must take something pretty extreme to make a tough Tory nut like you from Basingstoke reach for the puke bucket, what was it? Exactly??
Asking for a friend, obvs
Civil servants who are outside the senior levels and aren’t in politically restricted roles can, with permission, campaign in a personal capacity, e.g. letter drops etc.
And as for your question, depends what type of skydiving you do. Canopy piloting involves pointing your parachute directly at the ground, accelerating to ~100mph and hoping you'll plane out before you get to zero altitude. Percentage chances of a hospital appointment roughly correspond to where you fall on the scale of 1 to idiot.
And, if you think the next Parliament will be totally clean, then I have a bridge to sell you.
e.g. not exactly news I don't like Jezza*. But I absolutely understand why people were voting for him, particularly in 2017. There are some serious problems that have only worsen over the past 20 years, and he was addressing those and proposing solutions (the fact that I don't believe those solutions would work any better than when they had previously tried is irrelevant).
Just dismissing that whole group as (insert insult) doesn't achieve anything.
Also the reality is the vast vast majority of the electorate aren't really hardcore one way or the other. They might lean right or left ideologically, but don't actually spend that much time thinking about nor are instantly anti any solution proposed juts because it came from the other side. It certainly doesn't say anything about the decency of the group.
* Actually I don't really hate the guy, I just think he is wrong about basically everything.
So do I.
*do not use this when making a bet.
2019: 67.3%
2017: 68.8%
2016: 72.2%
2015: 66.4%
2010: 65.1%
2005: 61.4%
2001: 59.4%
1997: 71.3%
1992: 77.7%
Is it remotely likely that turnout will be in the 72-78% range? I think this is more likely to be a sign that people more likely to vote are more likely to respond to opinion polls - which raises the question as to whether this peculiar, opinion poll-responding subset of people is representative of those who will vote.
It's not unfair, and you phrase it rather well
However, I CANNOT forgive the Tory govt 2 MILLION net migrants in about 3 years, it is utterly inexcusable, in one year we had more migramts that the last two decades of the 20th century combined, and this will forever alter our nation, and not, I fear, for the better. For that they must be punished, if not extinguished, they did it deliberately and I loathe them
Sadly, there is no sane party of the right to replace them, so the only way to smite them is to vote Labour who will almost certainly be worse. But that is the system we have. At least Labour might have the guts to reform the NHS, they may have no choice, fiscally
For me it is Sir Kir Royale Starmer, PM, First Lord of the Treasure, and I ABHOR him
I think the big moment for me will be when the Tories pledge to abolish IHT as their headline manifesto pledge (we all know it’s coming). If that does not shift the polls, then I may need to reassess.
1) I just dont believe that's true
2) even if it is it's in landslide rather than destruction territory...
Indeed this Tory government has been relatively mild on that front, tho that might be because we are all so jaded and watching people wank pandas on TikTok
Might stick that on again.
A) Brexity enough
B ) Anti-woke enough
C) Anti-immigration enough
D) Mean to everyone enough
I would like to think the party will avoid a lurch to the right. But I really can’t see that, sadly.
He seems to have the same tin eared approach to personnel management.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ck558ky6273o
What a weird thing to say.
I hope that in 4-5 years time then we are able to be on the same side again in politics. That depends probably in no small part in who replaces Sunak and what lessons are learnt.
If the Tories become the party of having people keep more of their own income we work hard for again, then I will support them again.
If the Tories become the party of having everyone have the opportunity to own their own home again, then I will support them again.
If I support them now, when they stand against what attracted me to the Party, then what's the point? Simply not being Labour is not enough.
Please, give me a solid reason to vote Conservative. I have in the past, before Boris. 'Smirks' aren't a reason.
Had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat a different conclusion may have been drawn but Rishi couldn't wait and toppled him.
Manifesto launch?