I still feel quite at sea in terms of predictions at the moment. Gut still says Tories on 160-200. Probably at the upper end of that range. But I would like to see more evidence of a shift towards them in the polls.
I think the big moment for me will be when the Tories pledge to abolish IHT as their headline manifesto pledge (we all know it’s coming). If that does not shift the polls, then I may need to reassess.
My gut says Tories 300-320, but I think that might be IBS. On a serious note, when neither man enjoys widespread support, it is hard to rule out one or two bad events switching most people back to their recent alignment.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
Or we could always hope for a Lib Dem government.
Then again, unicorns don't exist...
The smirk on Ed Davey's face alone should preclude any sensible person from voting for that.
You say that; but it's actually meaningless. Attack policy and actions. It's the same as attacking Sunak because he's short, or Starmer because he has a constant rabbit-in-headlights look.
Please, give me a solid reason to vote Conservative. I have in the past, before Boris. 'Smirks' aren't a reason.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
Royale. ROYALE. This little Prime Minister survived longer than that with no weapons and no training, amirite?
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
Or we could always hope for a Lib Dem government.
Then again, unicorns don't exist...
The smirk on Ed Davey's face alone should preclude any sensible person from voting for that.
You say that; but it's actually meaningless. Attack policy and actions. It's the same as attacking Sunak because he's short, or Starmer because he has a constant rabbit-in-headlights look.
Please, give me a solid reason to vote Conservative. I have in the past, before Boris. 'Smirks' aren't a reason.
Abbott has been given the Whip back so she can retire as a Labour MP.
That just makes it worse...
Is Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak in disguise?
He seems to have the same tin eared approach to personnel management.
Why is giving her back the whip so she can retire as a Labour MP bad?
No fan of Abbott, but if she is ill as rumoured, allowing her to exit politics as a full MP in the party she has devoted much of her life to… seems like the decent thing, really.
It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
I just don’t understand this decision . She apologized and withdrew her comments and did a course . Something else must have happened behind the scenes.
Is she actually still any good at the job even forgetting all the baggage and risk? Five years ago she sounded a shell of the person of twenty years ago.
Well it should be upto her constituents to make that decision . It just seems very cruel given others have had the whip restored.
I heard from a reliable source is that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
So Starmer's made the right call.
If that is the case, then, yes, that is the right call.
It's not just the Left: he pushes out into the cold anyone who doesn't toe the line. Witness Rosie Duffield.
I get the whole "ruthless" argument for a leader to win but, in that case, it doesn't actually make much sense since her position resonates electorally.
I just don’t understand this decision . She apologized and withdrew her comments and did a course . Something else must have happened behind the scenes.
Is she actually still any good at the job even forgetting all the baggage and risk? Five years ago she sounded a shell of the person of twenty years ago.
Well it should be upto her constituents to make that decision . It just seems very cruel given others have had the whip restored.
I heard from a reliable source is that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
So Starmer's made the right call.
That wouldn't surprise me, but she is mentally a shadow of her former self. Time for her to retire.
I really can't see Diane standing as an independent, she's 70 and ready to retire. To be honest, I think Corbyn would have stood down this time had things gone differently and the CLP had a free hand in selecting his successor but he doesn't want to end his career as a loser. The one thing that inspires Corbyn is a fight against the establishment.
She'd make quite a good token leftie on GBnews if she could stick it and brain wise she's OK. Quite tempting to team her up with Portillo again - they had good chemistry.
One of those MPs not really suited, for better and worse, for the front benches. There's dozens of them getting along just fine without trying their hand at ministerial or shadow ministerial office.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
Abbott has been given the Whip back so she can retire as a Labour MP.
That just makes it worse...
Is Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak in disguise?
He seems to have the same tin eared approach to personnel management.
Why is giving her back the whip so she can retire as a Labour MP bad?
No fan of Abbott, but if she is ill as rumoured, allowing her to exit politics as a full MP in the party she has devoted much of her life to… seems like the decent thing, really.
Or am I missing something?
Why give her the whip back, before banning her from standing?
I have to say that Diane Abbott is far from my cup of tea, but I do feel she has been unfairly done by there. And the “you can retire a Labour MP” thing just looks like knife twisting. If I were her I’d tell them to p*ss off.
Yep. Go straight out and endorse Jezbollah. Any other Momentum types out there? Too late to register Peace and Justice as a party, but they could all run under its banner as independents. Or join the WRP with Galloway and have it done properly...
Which day are we expecting the Tory cancellation of IHT?
Manifesto launch?
I presume we have some other greatest hits like bringing back the death penalty before we get to that.
Yeh. I reckon at least an offer of referendum on death penalty will be in the mix.
ECHR as well obviously.
The really interesting thing is if they basically put the Braverman/David Frost manifesto out there and still lose.
What happens in their leadership election?
The hard right policy offer has been tried and roundly defeated.
No it hasn't, the hard right policy would be deportations, sinking the boats, abolish IHT, slash spending as well as taxes, scrap net zero and reopen new coal mines and nuclear power stations, no non contributory benefits, ban woke courses in schools, start to cut back the abortion time limit, go beyond free schools with vouchers and more grammar schools. Plus tariffs on Chinese and EU imports, big tax breaks for private health insurance and yes maybe even restoring the death penalty for serial killers
Abbott has been given the Whip back so she can retire as a Labour MP.
That just makes it worse...
Is Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak in disguise?
He seems to have the same tin eared approach to personnel management.
Why is giving her back the whip so she can retire as a Labour MP bad?
No fan of Abbott, but if she is ill as rumoured, allowing her to exit politics as a full MP in the party she has devoted much of her life to… seems like the decent thing, really.
Or am I missing something?
Why give her the whip back, before banning her from standing?
I have to say that Diane Abbott is far from my cup of tea, but I do feel she has been unfairly done by there. And the “you can retire a Labour MP” thing just looks like knife twisting. If I were her I’d tell them to p*ss off.
Yep. Go straight out and endorse Jezbollah. Any other Momentum types out there? Too late to register Peace and Justice as a party, but they could all run under its banner as independents. Or join the WRP with Galloway and have it done properly...
Take the whip and endorse Jezza, make them withdraw it again and look like utter cretins
Abbott has been given the Whip back so she can retire as a Labour MP.
That just makes it worse...
Is Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak in disguise?
He seems to have the same tin eared approach to personnel management.
Why is giving her back the whip so she can retire as a Labour MP bad?
No fan of Abbott, but if she is ill as rumoured, allowing her to exit politics as a full MP in the party she has devoted much of her life to… seems like the decent thing, really.
Or am I missing something?
I think the idea is it is saying that she is acceptable to be a Labour MP, but still denying her the right to be selected as she wants and probably her local party wants anyway.
So a bit crueler than if she remained suspended and that was the pretext for why she was not able to stand.
Can't see it myself - the denial is the key action, restoring the whip is probably just a sop, and to see if she then loses it by her own action by campaigning for Corbyn.
The Stoke Newington part of Hackney North and Stoke Newington has only had three MPs since 1945. David Weitzman 1945-79, Ernie Roberts 1979-87 (deselected for being too left-wing), Diane Abbott 1987-2024.
If Diane does not win as an independent then that will leave David Davis as the last survivor of the 1987 intake. The only MPs standing with more seniority are Peter Bottomley (Oct 1974), Edward Leigh, Jeremy Corbyn and Roger Gale (all 1983).
A cursory look at the data tables tells me the Survation, R&W and JL Partners polls are much closer together than the headline numbers suggest.
All three have a "likely" turnout of around 75% (range is 72-78% on likelihood so for those looking to play on turnout that's a noticeable increase on 2019).
...
I'll stop you right there. here are the turnouts in recent general elections (and the Brexit referendum), back to the last general election with turnout of around 75%.
Is it remotely likely that turnout will be int he 72-78% range? I think this is more likely to be a sign that people more likely to vote are more likely to respond to opinion polls - which raises the question as to whether this peculiar, opinion poll-responding subset of people is representative of those who will vote.
I think we'll be at 2001 levels.
Suppose turnout from 2019 drops by the same amount that it fell between 1997 and 2001 (-11.9), that would give us a turnout of 55.4%. With an electorate of 49 million, that would yield 27.1 million voters - the Tories would need a vote share of just over 30.4% to beat the 8.25 million votes they received in the 1929 GE - their lowest number of votes in the age of universal suffrage.
I think that's at risk.
The 1929 vote tally is just under 59.1% of the votes the Tories received in 2019. The latest YouGov has the Tories retaining 41% of their 2019 vote, even with Opinium that figure is only 60% with the don't knows reallocated.
I think a low turnout is the way to reconcile the lack of enthusiasm with Starmer with him also winning a large victory.
What we need to establish is this: if the Tories get an absolute hiding, will the British Right introspect at all or will they just blame it all on feckless old Boris and doltish old Rishi?
I am told that Starmer wanted the decision to be announced re Dianne Abbott minutes before the deadline to give her no chance of being able to field herself as an Independent candidate and is furious his hand was forced by last night's leak about the disciplinary outcome
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
I'm married to a foreigner mate. Who also happens to be a Tory.
Not everything (in fact, hardly anything) is a slight against you personally.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
Royale. ROYALE. This little Prime Minister survived longer than that with no weapons and no training, amirite?
JL Partners gives 170 Tory seats tonight ie more than 1997 and 2001 so not all polls show that
JL Partners' raw figures are little different to Redfield / Survation. The only thing that differs is their "magic sauce" which may be magic or may be no different from hilariously bad guess work,
The Stoke Newington part of Hackney North and Stoke Newington has only had three MPs since 1945. David Weitzman 1945-79, Ernie Roberts 1979-87 (deselected for being too left-wing), Diane Abbott 1987-2024.
If Diane does not win as an independent then that will leave David Davis as the last survivor of the 1987 intake. The only MPs standing with more seniority are Peter Bottomley (Oct 1974), Edward Leigh, Jeremy Corbyn and Roger Gale (all 1983).
Sir Peter possibly all that stands between Corbyn and being Father of the House (other than the electorate of course).
According to Wiki he came in at a by-election in 1975, so he needed to stand again to get that 50 years that Ken Clarke was cruelly denied.
What we need to establish is this: if the Tories get an absolute hiding, will the British Right introspect at all or will they just blame it all on feckless old Boris and doltish old Rishi?
Which option will be most comforting to the party membership? There's your answer.
Sunak toppled Boris, Hunt challenged Boris for the leadership, if they lead the party to heavy defeat it is hardly surprising if the membership conclude a shift right to Boris populism is the way.
Had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat a different conclusion may have been drawn but Rishi couldn't wait and toppled him.
What has Rishi done that Boris would not have? And the Truss economic stuff does not count, as Boris made no moves in that direction until after he was ousted.
I was going to say the NI Protocol stuff, but IIRC Boris' surrogates were complaining at Rishi taking credit for work done earlier on that.
Boris's Northern Ireland Protocol Bill threated to nullify parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol unilaterally, and Sunak scrapped it. If there was any credit being claimed, it was that the NIP bill was the only thing that forced the EU to make what concessions it did for the Windsor Framework. Boris was also going to 'go for growth' with Sunak out of the Treasury and Zahawi in place. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chancellor-nadhim-zahawi-tax-cuts-boris-johnson-news-b1010471.html
Sunak isn't just an obstacle to growth as PM, he was as COE too.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
We’re on an express elevator to hell!
Miss Bill Paxton.
Might stick that on again.
I bet you wouldn't call him Miss to his face
"Hey, Vasquez. Have you ever been mistaken for a man?" "No. Have you?"
I am told that Starmer wanted the decision to be announced re Dianne Abbott minutes before the deadline to give her no chance of being able to field herself as an Independent candidate and is furious his hand was forced by last night's leak about the disciplinary outcome
Seems unlikely. Abbott's not going to win as an independent is she.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
I'm married to a foreigner mate. Who also happens to be a Tory.
Not everything (in fact, hardly anything) is a slight against you personally.
It’s fine. Your party doesn’t want my vote. It’s not good enough for you. So I’ll vote for someone else. Perhaps I’ll reconsider when I’m a pensioner - who you really love
The Stoke Newington part of Hackney North and Stoke Newington has only had three MPs since 1945. David Weitzman 1945-79, Ernie Roberts 1979-87 (deselected for being too left-wing), Diane Abbott 1987-2024.
If Diane does not win as an independent then that will leave David Davis as the last survivor of the 1987 intake. The only MPs standing with more seniority are Peter Bottomley (Oct 1974), Edward Leigh, Jeremy Corbyn and Roger Gale (all 1983).
The Stoke Newington part of Hackney North and Stoke Newington has only had three MPs since 1945. David Weitzman 1945-79, Ernie Roberts 1979-87 (deselected for being too left-wing), Diane Abbott 1987-2024.
If Diane does not win as an independent then that will leave David Davis as the last survivor of the 1987 intake. The only MPs standing with more seniority are Peter Bottomley (Oct 1974), Edward Leigh, Jeremy Corbyn and Roger Gale (all 1983).
Interesting. As Bottomley will be at risk in Worthing West. Don't suppose Leigh will, but should owt happen to him then Jezza could be Father of the House.
What we need to establish is this: if the Tories get an absolute hiding, will the British Right introspect at all or will they just blame it all on feckless old Boris and doltish old Rishi?
Which option will be most comforting to the party membership? There's your answer.
Sunak toppled Boris, Hunt challenged Boris for the leadership, if they lead the party to heavy defeat it is hardly surprising if the membership conclude a shift right to Boris populism is the way.
Had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat a different conclusion may have been drawn but Rishi couldn't wait and toppled him.
What has Rishi done that Boris would not have? And the Truss economic stuff does not count, as Boris made no moves in that direction until after he was ousted.
I was going to say the NI Protocol stuff, but IIRC Boris' surrogates were complaining at Rishi taking credit for work done earlier on that.
Boris's Northern Ireland Protocol Bill threated to nullify parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol unilaterally, and Sunak scrapped it. If there was any credit being claimed, it was that the NIP bill was the only thing that forced the EU to make what concessions it did for the Windsor Framework. Boris was also going to 'go for growth' with Sunak out of the Treasury and Zahawi in place. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chancellor-nadhim-zahawi-tax-cuts-boris-johnson-news-b1010471.html
Sunak isn't just an obstacle to growth as PM, he was as COE too.
Ok, so he was possibly going to do it right at the very end, fair enough - hardly enables him to paint that as a core part of what he was planning, Truss could make the argument much convincingly.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
Royale. ROYALE. This little Prime Minister survived longer than that with no weapons and no training, amirite?
Affirmative.
Hey, Casino. Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Starmer Fans will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. VWAP! Fry half a Parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks, leaflets with dodgy bar charts...
@lizziedearden Oh wow. In a rare move, the High Court has issued an order for the government to formally inform it of "the earliest date on which the Government intend to begin removals to Rwanda"
Because Rishi Sunak's media statement on Thursdsy directly contradicted its own legal arguments
This is the legal challenge against the Safety of Rwanda guidance for civil servants, brought by the FDA union
The government was reprimanded by the High Court on 10 May for messing it about with dates, which affected how the case was scheduled
The government originally wrote to the High Court claiming “the earliest a removal is expected to take place is 1 to 15 July 2024”, but then wrote again saying the date was based on 22 April Sunak press conference and 10 to 12 weeks was actually the "week commencing 24 June"
But then the PM calls the election and goes around broadcast studios on Thursday morning saying Rwanda flights will be "in July" and after the vote
The High Court noticed and is now demanding "the clarity required" for handling the case, currently due to be heard in early June
What's rare about this order is it's "On the Court’s own initiative"
That means it's a step outside the rulings normally required in the course of proceedings. It is very, very embarrassing for the government's lawyers and entirely caused by Rishi Sunak
I just noticed that the JLP 12% poll was taken before the recent policy announcements, even before the national service one. The two polls post-dating that announcement show small movements away from the Cons.
Well you pay your money and you takes your choice! A few more polls may clarify things - or not.
What we need to establish is this: if the Tories get an absolute hiding, will the British Right introspect at all or will they just blame it all on feckless old Boris and doltish old Rishi?
Which option will be most comforting to the party membership? There's your answer.
Sunak toppled Boris, Hunt challenged Boris for the leadership, if they lead the party to heavy defeat it is hardly surprising if the membership conclude a shift right to Boris populism is the way.
Had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat a different conclusion may have been drawn but Rishi couldn't wait and toppled him.
What has Rishi done that Boris would not have? And the Truss economic stuff does not count, as Boris made no moves in that direction until after he was ousted.
I was going to say the NI Protocol stuff, but IIRC Boris' surrogates were complaining at Rishi taking credit for work done earlier on that.
Boris's Northern Ireland Protocol Bill threated to nullify parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol unilaterally, and Sunak scrapped it. If there was any credit being claimed, it was that the NIP bill was the only thing that forced the EU to make what concessions it did for the Windsor Framework. Boris was also going to 'go for growth' with Sunak out of the Treasury and Zahawi in place. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chancellor-nadhim-zahawi-tax-cuts-boris-johnson-news-b1010471.html
Sunak isn't just an obstacle to growth as PM, he was as COE too.
Ok, so he was possibly going to do it right at the very end, fair enough - hardly enables him to paint that as a core part of what he was planning, Truss could make the argument much convincingly.
There is something very strange with the Treasury and its power to defy the PM. The Treasury (and Chancellor and BOE) was tracking the DM (disastrously as it later turned out) in defiance of Thatcher. She refused to believe it when told but came to believe it. I can believe that Sunak went native and ignored Johnson - if someone like Thatcher can be ignored. Johnson wanted to try his Sunak trick again - put in someone who owes you their patronage and they will do what you want. Sadly it went tits up with Zahawi almost immediately.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
I'm married to a foreigner mate. Who also happens to be a Tory.
Not everything (in fact, hardly anything) is a slight against you personally.
It’s fine. Your party doesn’t want my vote. It’s not good enough for you. So I’ll vote for someone else. Perhaps I’ll reconsider when I’m a pensioner - who you really love
It's similar to why I am so fervently anti-Brexit. Brexit was driven by anti-immigrant feeling, and many of my friends and colleagues were from the EU. It was a deliberate and calculated statement that they were not wanted, and I really don't like my friends being insulted.
The Tories decided they didn't need my vote, so they are not getting it.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
I'm married to a foreigner mate. Who also happens to be a Tory.
Not everything (in fact, hardly anything) is a slight against you personally.
It’s fine. Your party doesn’t want my vote. It’s not good enough for you. So I’ll vote for someone else. Perhaps I’ll reconsider when I’m a pensioner - who you really love
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
Ahahahahahahah
HAHAHAHH
No, sorry, that is serious, you got some anno
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
TWAT
Frankly, I am amazed you survived the Netpocalypse of Abuse that nearly made you overdunk your hobnob, Bravo. The Dambusters salute you
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
I'm married to a foreigner mate. Who also happens to be a Tory.
Not everything (in fact, hardly anything) is a slight against you personally.
It’s fine. Your party doesn’t want my vote. It’s not good enough for you. So I’ll vote for someone else. Perhaps I’ll reconsider when I’m a pensioner - who you really love
It's similar to why I am so fervently anti-Brexit. Brexit was driven by anti-immigrant feeling, and many of my friends and colleagues were from the EU. It was a deliberate and calculated statement that they were not wanted, and I really don't like my friends being insulted.
The Tories decided they didn't need my vote, so they are not getting it.
The Stoke Newington part of Hackney North and Stoke Newington has only had three MPs since 1945. David Weitzman 1945-79, Ernie Roberts 1979-87 (deselected for being too left-wing), Diane Abbott 1987-2024.
If Diane does not win as an independent then that will leave David Davis as the last survivor of the 1987 intake. The only MPs standing with more seniority are Peter Bottomley (Oct 1974), Edward Leigh, Jeremy Corbyn and Roger Gale (all 1983).
Sir Peter possibly all that stands between Corbyn and being Father of the House (other than the electorate of course).
According to Wiki he came in at a by-election in 1975, so he needed to stand again to get that 50 years that Ken Clarke was cruelly denied.
I suspect that Bottomley's a goner in Worthing West but Edward Leigh surely will hold Gainsborough and he got sworn in about 10 minutes before Corbyn did.
The Stoke Newington part of Hackney North and Stoke Newington has only had three MPs since 1945. David Weitzman 1945-79, Ernie Roberts 1979-87 (deselected for being too left-wing), Diane Abbott 1987-2024.
If Diane does not win as an independent then that will leave David Davis as the last survivor of the 1987 intake. The only MPs standing with more seniority are Peter Bottomley (Oct 1974), Edward Leigh, Jeremy Corbyn and Roger Gale (all 1983).
Sir Peter possibly all that stands between Corbyn and being Father of the House (other than the electorate of course).
According to Wiki he came in at a by-election in 1975, so he needed to stand again to get that 50 years that Ken Clarke was cruelly denied.
...although predicted to lose his Worthing West seat to Lab according to EC. The Red Coast.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
I'm married to a foreigner mate. Who also happens to be a Tory.
Not everything (in fact, hardly anything) is a slight against you personally.
It’s fine. Your party doesn’t want my vote. It’s not good enough for you. So I’ll vote for someone else. Perhaps I’ll reconsider when I’m a pensioner - who you really love
It's similar to why I am so fervently anti-Brexit. Brexit was driven by anti-immigrant feeling, and many of my friends and colleagues were from the EU. It was a deliberate statement that they were not wanted, and I really don't like my friends being insulted.
The Tories decided they didn't need my vote, so they are not getting it.
See also centrist wets. Or anyone working in the public sector.
I'm reminded of the Momentum refrain, 'why don't you (go away) and join the Tories?'
So people did, with the outcome we saw in December 2019.
@lizziedearden Oh wow. In a rare move, the High Court has issued an order for the government to formally inform it of "the earliest date on which the Government intend to begin removals to Rwanda"
Because Rishi Sunak's media statement on Thursdsy directly contradicted its own legal arguments
This is the legal challenge against the Safety of Rwanda guidance for civil servants, brought by the FDA union
The government was reprimanded by the High Court on 10 May for messing it about with dates, which affected how the case was scheduled
The government originally wrote to the High Court claiming “the earliest a removal is expected to take place is 1 to 15 July 2024”, but then wrote again saying the date was based on 22 April Sunak press conference and 10 to 12 weeks was actually the "week commencing 24 June"
But then the PM calls the election and goes around broadcast studios on Thursday morning saying Rwanda flights will be "in July" and after the vote
The High Court noticed and is now demanding "the clarity required" for handling the case, currently due to be heard in early June
What's rare about this order is it's "On the Court’s own initiative"
That means it's a step outside the rulings normally required in the course of proceedings. It is very, very embarrassing for the government's lawyers and entirely caused by Rishi Sunak
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
Or we could always hope for a Lib Dem government.
Then again, unicorns don't exist...
I try not to experience nightmares so never dream of a lib dem governement
JL Partners gives 170 Tory seats tonight ie more than 1997 and 2001 so not all polls show that
R&W gives Tories 84 seats, and Survation gives them 65 seats, just 9 seats ahead of the LDs.
So I think Andy_JS is right based on a reasonable definition of the word 'currently'.
On UNS even Survation gives about 155 Tory seats, EC is making a lot of assumptions about the level of tactical voting there
Survation has asked about tactical voting - 32% of Labour supporters and 36% of LD supporters would vote tactically against their preferred party to stop another party winning in their constituency,
I'm liking the new graphic on polling from Wikipedia: I do wonder if a combined Reform/Green squeeze will be the main change from the polling average to actual results. Not that it would change the headline result materially.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I don't think I'll enjoy a Labour government either.
But I don't enjoy a Tory government that isn't on the side of people working for a living either.
At least with a Labour government I might get a semi decent Tory opposition eventually, who can then return to office fit for purpose.
Or we could always hope for a Lib Dem government.
Then again, unicorns don't exist...
I try not to experience nightmares so never dream of a lib dem governement
Compulsory registration of everyone having a penis on Day One.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
JL Partners gives 170 Tory seats tonight ie more than 1997 and 2001 so not all polls show that
R&W gives Tories 84 seats, and Survation gives them 65 seats, just 9 seats ahead of the LDs.
So I think Andy_JS is right based on a reasonable definition of the word 'currently'.
On UNS even Survation gives about 155 Tory seats, EC is making a lot of assumptions about the level of tactical voting there
Survation has asked about tactical voting - 32% of Labour supporters and 36% of LD supporters would vote tactically against their preferred party to stop another party winning in their constituency,
19.5% of Conservatives would as well.
That brings the Tories down to 60 seats according to EC.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
You are a good person Doug and I am glad to have you posting here. I am sorry for the way you have been treated.
Someone please help me with a basic polling question. Those DKs: isn't it most likely that they will just not vote at all?
No. The assumption is that they will swing back to the party they voted for last time. Problem is, that assumption doesn't always work, a recent example being 2017 when the expecting 5% of DK swingback to Conservatives didn't happen. So the honest answer at the moment is "um?"
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
Royale. ROYALE. This little Prime Minister survived longer than that with no weapons and no training, amirite?
Affirmative.
Hey, Casino. Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Starmer Fans will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. VWAP! Fry half a Parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks, leaflets with dodgy bar charts...
Shit. That movie. I just googled the 17 day 17 hour thing and in the 5 seconds clip, 5 actors put in an oscar winning performance.
First film, I just don't see it. I imagine I was amazed by the bit where the (spoiler) thing bursts out of his thing, first time round, but what else has it got?
Someone please help me with a basic polling question. Those DKs: isn't it most likely that they will just not vote at all?
No. The assumption is that they will swing back to the party they voted for last time. Problem is, that assumption doesn't always work, a recent example being 2017 when the expecting 5% of DK swingback to Conservatives didn't happen. So the honest answer at the moment is "um?"
We cannot say this too often: 2019 WAS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION.
Todays re weighting Poll has the Tories plus Reform level with the SKS Party
The 2 polls with no adjustments shows them 10% or 15% behind
One of the Polling methods is going to be shown as a massive mistake
I will be surprised if the difference is anywhere near that large come polling day. Not least because a decent chunk of people currently saying don't know to pollsters will have made their mind up, and so will give a more definitive answer to the question.
Someone please help me with a basic polling question. Those DKs: isn't it most likely that they will just not vote at all?
No. The assumption is that they will swing back to the party they voted for last time. Problem is, that assumption doesn't always work, a recent example being 2017 when the expecting 5% of DK swingback to Conservatives didn't happen. So the honest answer at the moment is "um?"
We cannot say this too often: 2019 WAS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION.
Someone please help me with a basic polling question. Those DKs: isn't it most likely that they will just not vote at all?
No. The assumption is that they will swing back to the party they voted for last time. Problem is, that assumption doesn't always work, a recent example being 2017 when the expecting 5% of DK swingback to Conservatives didn't happen. So the honest answer at the moment is "um?"
That is also the title of Labours manifesto. Keir is a secret political genius!
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
You are a good person Doug and I am glad to have you posting here. I am sorry for the way you have been treated.
Good for you. Until enough of us stand together and say "No more, this far and no more, there can be no more slightly mad and weird threats on social media against wealthy people" then these slightly mad and weird threats on social media against wealthy people will inexorably continue and possibly WORSEN until millionaire lawyers with their rich Boston born wives become slightly anxious before lunch. And the people in Ukraine think they have it bad?
This, this here. This is where we must finally stand, and turn, and FIGHT
Someone please help me with a basic polling question. Those DKs: isn't it most likely that they will just not vote at all?
No. The assumption is that they will swing back to the party they voted for last time. Problem is, that assumption doesn't always work, a recent example being 2017 when the expecting 5% of DK swingback to Conservatives didn't happen. So the honest answer at the moment is "um?"
We cannot say this too often: 2019 WAS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION.
Todays re weighting Poll has the Tories plus Reform level with the SKS Party
The 2 polls with no adjustments shows them 10% or 15% behind
One of the Polling methods is going to be shown as a massive mistake
No they just show different things. The raw measures of current intention are near identical, it is just that JL Partners have published a forecast of where they expect it to move. The others have left it up to the reader.
I have to say that Diane Abbott is far from my cup of tea, but I do feel she has been unfairly done by there. And the “you can retire a Labour MP” thing just looks like knife twisting. If I were her I’d tell them to p*ss off.
It does, although Diane Abbott is 70 years old so presumably this would have been a last hurrah anyway. She was a significant figure when younger, and a pioneer as the first Black woman in the Commons. She deserves better than this.
Someone please help me with a basic polling question. Those DKs: isn't it most likely that they will just not vote at all?
No. The assumption is that they will swing back to the party they voted for last time. Problem is, that assumption doesn't always work, a recent example being 2017 when the expecting 5% of DK swingback to Conservatives didn't happen. So the honest answer at the moment is "um?"
We cannot say this too often: 2019 WAS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION.
JL Partners gives 170 Tory seats tonight ie more than 1997 and 2001 so not all polls show that
R&W gives Tories 84 seats, and Survation gives them 65 seats, just 9 seats ahead of the LDs.
So I think Andy_JS is right based on a reasonable definition of the word 'currently'.
On UNS even Survation gives about 155 Tory seats, EC is making a lot of assumptions about the level of tactical voting there
Survation has asked about tactical voting - 32% of Labour supporters and 36% of LD supporters would vote tactically against their preferred party to stop another party winning in their constituency,
19.5% of Conservatives would as well.
That brings the Tories down to 60 seats according to EC.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
Royale. ROYALE. This little Prime Minister survived longer than that with no weapons and no training, amirite?
Affirmative.
Hey, Casino. Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Starmer Fans will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. VWAP! Fry half a Parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks, leaflets with dodgy bar charts...
Shit. That movie. I just googled the 17 day 17 hour thing and in the 5 seconds clip, 5 actors put in an oscar winning performance.
First film, I just don't see it. I imagine I was amazed by the bit where the (spoiler) thing bursts out of his thing, first time round, but what else has it got?
Nah, you watch the whole film - the whole film - just for the sentry guns.
Someone please help me with a basic polling question. Those DKs: isn't it most likely that they will just not vote at all?
No. The assumption is that they will swing back to the party they voted for last time. Problem is, that assumption doesn't always work, a recent example being 2017 when the expecting 5% of DK swingback to Conservatives didn't happen. So the honest answer at the moment is "um?"
We cannot say this too often: 2019 WAS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION.
2024 will not be a normal election - not after Truss. 2017 was not a normal election - not after the Brexit referendum. 2015 was not a normal election - not after the Coalition. 2010 was not a normal election - the banking collapse was so bad that interest rates were at record (a several centuries long record) lows. Was 2005 a normal election? After the Iraq war?
All elections are unusual. 2019 is our baseline for this one.
Someone please help me with a basic polling question. Those DKs: isn't it most likely that they will just not vote at all?
No. The assumption is that they will swing back to the party they voted for last time. Problem is, that assumption doesn't always work, a recent example being 2017 when the expecting 5% of DK swingback to Conservatives didn't happen. So the honest answer at the moment is "um?"
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
You are a good person Doug and I am glad to have you posting here. I am sorry for the way you have been treated.
Good for you. Until enough of us stand together and say "No more, this far and no more, there can be no more slightly mad and weird threats on social media against wealthy people" then these slightly mad and weird threats on social media against wealthy people will inexorably continue and possibly WORSEN until millionaire lawyers with their rich Boston born wives become slightly anxious before lunch. And the people in Ukraine think they have it bad?
This, this here. This is where we must finally stand, and turn, and FIGHT
DEFEND THE WEALTHY IMMIGRATION LAWYERS
The bloke has had death threats.
I know being a dickhead is your one thing, and that you and up to three other people enjoy that schtick. But maybe give it a break.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
Ahahahahahahah
HAHAHAHH
No, sorry, that is serious, you got some anno
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
TWAT
Frankly, I am amazed you survived the Netpocalypse of Abuse that nearly made you overdunk your hobnob, Bravo. The Dambusters salute you
Reading your output on here it is clear that two of your favourite things are (a) sex and (b) travel. It is one of the site’s enduring mysteries why you don’t combine those two hobbies and Fuck Off. May I suggest you try doing so?
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
I genuinely did not know this sir, and I am sorry to hear it.
What gets me is how political leaders never seem to realise they are the same as every other leader looking after a buddy when these things happen, they always trot out the same lines about process and prejudice, and they think, oh, when I do it it won't look like I'm just protecting one of my own.
The SNP are facing defeat in a vote over proposals to suspend and dock the pay of former health secretary Michael Matheson over an £11,000 bill racked up on his parliamentary iPad.
The Falkirk West MSP, who quit the cabinet in February, is also the subject of a Scottish Conservative motion calling on him to resign from Holyrood.
The standards committee has recommended that Mr Matheson be suspended for 27 sitting days and his salary withdrawn for 54 days.
First Minister John Swinney said he would not back the sanction - the harshest punishment ever handed to an MSP - claiming the committee had been "prejudiced" against Mr Matheson.
However, the Scottish Greens have confirmed they will support the punishment and said any attempt by the SNP to "water down" the sanctions via an amendment would be unacceptable.
I have to say that Diane Abbott is far from my cup of tea, but I do feel she has been unfairly done by there. And the “you can retire a Labour MP” thing just looks like knife twisting. If I were her I’d tell them to p*ss off.
It does, although Diane Abbott is 70 years old so presumably this would have been a last hurrah anyway. She was a significant figure when younger, and a pioneer as the first Black woman in the Commons. She deserves better than this.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
So, with the likelihood that that will force unwilling adults to pick fruit at a minimum stipend, you still say they “leave you and your family alone”? You have no teenaged relatives I suppose?
Your problem is you treat politics like sport. You ignore the fact that the Tories do, in fact, micromanage people’s lives, mock them for their lifestyle choices, so that you can cheer on “your” team.
I and my family have suffered badly as a result of this government and I am a white middle aged man. Not only am I bled white with taxes I am mocked every time a HS wants a cheap laugh. Tell me, what crime have I committed that your party hates people like me so much? What have I done? My taxes not good enough for you? Why do you hate so many people?
Why on God's green earth are you "hated"?
I’ve mentioned this before.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
Ahahahahahahah
HAHAHAHH
No, sorry, that is serious, you got some anno
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
TWAT
Frankly, I am amazed you survived the Netpocalypse of Abuse that nearly made you overdunk your hobnob, Bravo. The Dambusters salute you
Reading your output on here it is clear that two of your favourite things are (a) sex and (b) travel. It is one of the site’s enduring mysteries why you don’t combine those two hobbies and Fuck Off. May I suggest you try doing so?
SNP amendment to the Standards Committee motion on Michael Matheson is up. Looks like the SNP *WILL* vote for Matheson to be suspended for 27 days and have his wages stopped for 54
Someone please help me with a basic polling question. Those DKs: isn't it most likely that they will just not vote at all?
No. The assumption is that they will swing back to the party they voted for last time. Problem is, that assumption doesn't always work, a recent example being 2017 when the expecting 5% of DK swingback to Conservatives didn't happen. So the honest answer at the moment is "um?"
We cannot say this too often: 2019 WAS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION.
2024 will not be a normal election - not after Truss. 2017 was not a normal election - not after the Brexit referendum. 2015 was not a normal election - not after the Coalition. 2010 was not a normal election - the banking collapse was so bad that interest rates were at record (a several centuries long record) lows. Was 2005 a normal election? After the Iraq war?
All elections are unusual. 2019 is our baseline for this one.
Yes I get that. I just don't think it's sensible to assume DKs will end up voting in line with their 2019 votes, or even end up voting at all for that matter.
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
You are a good person Doug and I am glad to have you posting here. I am sorry for the way you have been treated.
Good for you. Until enough of us stand together and say "No more, this far and no more, there can be no more slightly mad and weird threats on social media against wealthy people" then these slightly mad and weird threats on social media against wealthy people will inexorably continue and possibly WORSEN until millionaire lawyers with their rich Boston born wives become slightly anxious before lunch. And the people in Ukraine think they have it bad?
This, this here. This is where we must finally stand, and turn, and FIGHT
DEFEND THE WEALTHY IMMIGRATION LAWYERS
Hmm, I distinctly remember you being anti-death-threat just a few weeks ago without it dripping with irony: These women were brave, they stood up to the bullies (and lots of hideous abuse: rape threats, death threats etc) they are entitled to vent their righteous spleen
Why the change in stance?
My God. You are literally recording every post I make
That's..... not creepy. Send me a death threat, it will be the cherry on the cake, and I won't moan about it on PB
I have to say that Diane Abbott is far from my cup of tea, but I do feel she has been unfairly done by there. And the “you can retire a Labour MP” thing just looks like knife twisting. If I were her I’d tell them to p*ss off.
It does, although Diane Abbott is 70 years old so presumably this would have been a last hurrah anyway. She was a significant figure when younger, and a pioneer as the first Black woman in the Commons. She deserves better than this.
She has had the whip restored so can stand
Well, maybe she has agreed, or just decided, not to stand? We will find out soon enough.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
There's nothing more exciting than PB on election night.
I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
17 days?! I've got news for you, pal, our poll lead ain't gonna last 17 hours!!
Royale. ROYALE. This little Prime Minister survived longer than that with no weapons and no training, amirite?
Affirmative.
Hey, Casino. Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Starmer Fans will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. VWAP! Fry half a Parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks, leaflets with dodgy bar charts...
Shit. That movie. I just googled the 17 day 17 hour thing and in the 5 seconds clip, 5 actors put in an oscar winning performance.
First film, I just don't see it. I imagine I was amazed by the bit where the (spoiler) thing bursts out of his thing, first time round, but what else has it got?
Ripley : How long after we're declared overdue can we expect a rescue?
Corporal Hicks : [pause] Seventeen days.
Private Hudson : Seventeen *days*? Hey man, I don't wanna rain on your parade, but we're not gonna last seventeen hours! Those things are gonna come in here just like they did before. And they're gonna come in here...
Ripley : Hudson!
Private Hudson : ...and they're gonna come in here AND THEY'RE GONNA GET US!
Ripley : Hudson! This little girl survived longer than that with no weapons and no training.
Private Hudson : Why don't you put *her* in charge?
JL Partners gives 170 Tory seats tonight ie more than 1997 and 2001 so not all polls show that
R&W gives Tories 84 seats, and Survation gives them 65 seats, just 9 seats ahead of the LDs.
So I think Andy_JS is right based on a reasonable definition of the word 'currently'.
On UNS even Survation gives about 155 Tory seats, EC is making a lot of assumptions about the level of tactical voting there
Survation has asked about tactical voting - 32% of Labour supporters and 36% of LD supporters would vote tactically against their preferred party to stop another party winning in their constituency,
19.5% of Conservatives would as well.
That brings the Tories down to 60 seats according to EC.
On the assumption all of those 36% of LD supporters would tactically vote Labour which is unlikely and Labour supporters who vote tactically probably already tactically voted LD in LD v Tory marginals in 2019 anyway
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Have you been enjoying this Conservative one? Really?
I've been critical of it, embarrassed about it and, at times, held my head in both my hands. A handful of them are only interested in lining their own pockets, and indulging in vomit-inducing sexual peccadillos. They've failed to deliver several core areas of their policy platform and, at times, displayed breathtaking incompetence. It's not a great record.
But, they have delivered important reforms on pensions, education and welfare, they have reduced unemployment, they have delivered a reset of our relationship with the EU, they have moved us a little way to sensible market-based decarbonisation, and are putting up at least some opposition to the idiocies of identity politics. Their foreign policy is sensible and logical.
Perhaps most importantly, fundamentally, the Conservatives leave me and my family alone. They don't look to nanny me, regulate me, or come after my rights, choices or money. They at least aspire to keep tax low, and look to balance the books, and there have been some truly horrid events in the world in the last few years that have made that much much harder. Now, we're almost out the woods. There is some light - some.
I know Labour will be coming for me, and I don't think it will do either me or the country much good. So, it's a slightly sheepish vote for the Tories for me - but still a vote.
That's actually about as good a defence of this government as I think it's possible to write, congratulations. I mean, I'm not sure it's entirely factually accurate, but it's certainly a better attempt at defending their record than I've heard any member of the government make.
They created the biggest chasm in most of our lifetimes by taking us out of the EU. It dwarfs everything else that has happened. The above is just a detail of useless baubles. For goodness sake let's get a grip.
Comments
ECHR as well obviously.
The really interesting thing is if they basically put the Braverman/David Frost manifesto out there and still lose.
What happens in their leadership election?
The hard right policy offer has been tried and roundly defeated.
No fan of Abbott, but if she is ill as rumoured, allowing her to exit politics as a full MP in the party she has devoted much of her life to… seems like the decent thing, really.
Or am I missing something?
I am, as you know and love to mock, a lawyer. I mostly do employment law but had a bit of a sideline in business visas for my clients. Became a big earner post-Brexit. I ran a really anodyne, boring, Twitter account advertising myself as an “Employment and Business Immigration Lawyer” as the Marketing Dept got keen on social media. Nothing political, stupefyingly dull, updates on legal changes, I got to a measly 500 followers - mostly other lawyers. My big moment was being retweeted by Joshua Rosenberg. I tweeted really dull stuff the PR team suggested, avoiding politics.
However, starting in about 2014 or 2015, I started getting abuse. Snide comments at first, then over time they started to get more personal, and then, in 2022, I became of of these lawyers -
https://www.joe.co.uk/news/rwanda-death-threats-sent-to-lefty-lawyers-unacceptable-downing-street-says-342272
The worst actual DM a threat of comedy death, the guy had imagination, but it directly referenced Rwanda. Others referenced Patel’s speeches. Eventually I closed the account anyway - before Braverman. I don’t do any asylum work, the immigration practice I had was visas for complained and HNWI’s, the sort of people “Global Britain” was supposed to be attracting, but nevertheless I was clearly an enemy of the people.
Tories also hate me because I’m married to a foreigner. My specific foreigner is a white Irish-American New Englander but, nevertheless, the hoops we have had to jump through regarding her immigration status have grown increasingly tighter. Now she’s just taken dual nationality the issues will have stopped but we met when I was a student and we would not be allowed to get married now.
So, if not me, then the Tories don’t want “people like me” to vote for them. So I won’t.
I’m not really a “victim”. Others have it far worse than me. The list of people Tories hate is long. But you can see why I can’t see myself as the the sort of person they’re gunning for.
So I think Andy_JS is right based on a reasonable definition of the word 'currently'.
(Insert man tapping head meme picture here.)
And they dont need to make us some lie about 'cutting down on tax avoidance' to pay for it.
So a bit crueler than if she remained suspended and that was the pretext for why she was not able to stand.
Can't see it myself - the denial is the key action, restoring the whip is probably just a sop, and to see if she then loses it by her own action by campaigning for Corbyn.
If Diane does not win as an independent then that will leave David Davis as the last survivor of the 1987 intake. The only MPs standing with more seniority are Peter Bottomley (Oct 1974), Edward Leigh, Jeremy Corbyn and Roger Gale (all 1983).
I think that's at risk.
The 1929 vote tally is just under 59.1% of the votes the Tories received in 2019. The latest YouGov has the Tories retaining 41% of their 2019 vote, even with Opinium that figure is only 60% with the don't knows reallocated.
I think a low turnout is the way to reconcile the lack of enthusiasm with Starmer with him also winning a large victory.
I am told that Starmer wanted the decision to be announced re Dianne Abbott minutes before the deadline to give her no chance of being able to field herself as an Independent candidate and is furious his hand was forced by last night's leak about the disciplinary outcome
Not everything (in fact, hardly anything) is a slight against you personally.
According to Wiki he came in at a by-election in 1975, so he needed to stand again to get that 50 years that Ken Clarke was cruelly denied.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chancellor-nadhim-zahawi-tax-cuts-boris-johnson-news-b1010471.html
Sunak isn't just an obstacle to growth as PM, he was as COE too.
"No. Have you?"
Don't suppose Leigh will, but should owt happen to him then Jezza could be Father of the House.
@lizziedearden
Oh wow. In a rare move, the High Court has issued an order for the government to formally inform it of "the earliest date on which the Government intend to begin removals to Rwanda"
Because Rishi Sunak's media statement on Thursdsy directly contradicted its own legal arguments
This is the legal challenge against the Safety of Rwanda guidance for civil servants, brought by the FDA union
The government was reprimanded by the High Court on 10 May for messing it about with dates, which affected how the case was scheduled
The government originally wrote to the High Court claiming “the earliest a removal is expected to take place is 1 to 15 July 2024”, but then wrote again saying the date was based on 22 April Sunak press conference and 10 to 12 weeks was actually the "week commencing 24 June"
But then the PM calls the election and goes around broadcast studios on Thursday morning saying Rwanda flights will be "in July" and after the vote
The High Court noticed and is now demanding "the clarity required" for handling the case, currently due to be heard in early June
What's rare about this order is it's "On the Court’s own initiative"
That means it's a step outside the rulings normally required in the course of proceedings. It is very, very embarrassing for the government's lawyers and entirely caused by Rishi Sunak
https://x.com/lizziedearden/status/1795527670807285782
Well you pay your money and you takes your choice! A few more polls may clarify things - or not.
The Tories decided they didn't need my vote, so they are not getting it.
Not everything is a slight Ok hun xxx
HAHAHAHH
No, sorry, that is serious, you got some anno
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
TWAT
Frankly, I am amazed you survived the Netpocalypse of Abuse that nearly made you overdunk your hobnob, Bravo. The Dambusters salute you
She voted Leave.
I'm reminded of the Momentum refrain, 'why don't you (go away) and join the Tories?'
So people did, with the outcome we saw in December 2019.
19.5% of Conservatives would as well.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
The 2 polls with no adjustments shows them 10% or 15% behind
One of the Polling methods is going to be shown as a massive mistake
First film, I just don't see it. I imagine I was amazed by the bit where the (spoiler) thing bursts out of his thing, first time round, but what else has it got?
This, this here. This is where we must finally stand, and turn, and FIGHT
DEFEND THE WEALTHY IMMIGRATION LAWYERS
Best moment in cinema history.
All elections are unusual. 2019 is our baseline for this one.
The average lead from the 1 squeeze Pollster is 17
The average lead from the 5 no adjusters is 24
Ridiculous spread
I know being a dickhead is your one thing, and that you and up to three other people enjoy that schtick. But maybe give it a break.
The SNP are facing defeat in a vote over proposals to suspend and dock the pay of former health secretary Michael Matheson over an £11,000 bill racked up on his parliamentary iPad.
The Falkirk West MSP, who quit the cabinet in February, is also the subject of a Scottish Conservative motion calling on him to resign from Holyrood.
The standards committee has recommended that Mr Matheson be suspended for 27 sitting days and his salary withdrawn for 54 days.
First Minister John Swinney said he would not back the sanction - the harshest punishment ever handed to an MSP - claiming the committee had been "prejudiced" against Mr Matheson.
However, the Scottish Greens have confirmed they will support the punishment and said any attempt by the SNP to "water down" the sanctions via an amendment would be unacceptable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c900n0dg97yo
I thought the whip was retored today?
No
@andrewlearmonth
SNP amendment to the Standards Committee motion on Michael Matheson is up. Looks like the SNP *WILL* vote for Matheson to be suspended for 27 days and have his wages stopped for 54
@euanmccolm
imagine blowing your scraps of capital on defending Matheson before doing him in anyway. such pisspoor politics.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/diane-abbott-keir-starmer-labour-general-election-b1160671.html
That's..... not creepy. Send me a death threat, it will be the cherry on the cake, and I won't moan about it on PB
- Ripley : How long after we're declared overdue can we expect a rescue?
- Corporal Hicks : [pause] Seventeen days.
- Private Hudson : Seventeen *days*? Hey man, I don't wanna rain on your parade, but we're not gonna last seventeen hours! Those things are gonna come in here just like they did before. And they're gonna come in here...
- Ripley : Hudson!
- Private Hudson : ...and they're gonna come in here AND THEY'RE GONNA GET US!
- Ripley : Hudson! This little girl survived longer than that with no weapons and no training.
- Private Hudson : Why don't you put *her* in charge?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KH6tUbTBwbMLabour 0%
Tories 100%
Others 0%