Bookmark this post and these tweets – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Undecided Voters
Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May)
20% Conservative
19% Labour
9% Lib Dem
9% Reform
5% Green
12% Others
27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting.
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795487775065510282
I would say it is over.0 -
It's a real video. Watch this better quality version:BatteryCorrectHorse said:No it isn't a real video. Her lips don't match what she is saying and the "logo" moves around the video. Worrying.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=10300689336930250 -
Someone on here mentioned capital punishment the other day.eek said:
They can't - if they can't squeeze Reform vote by stealing one of Reform's headline policies what else will do it...Andy_JS said:
How do the Tories get themselves up to 30% and avoid total disaster?Chameleon said:Labour 46% (+1)
Conservative 23% (–)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 3% (+2)
R&W
Labour +1, sample size: 12000. Cross tabs will be interesting.
And they need 60% of that Reform vote to hit 30%, and I suspect only 30% of it is (at best) inclined to vote tory.0 -
The facebook link to a contemporaneous BBC post showing the speech looks all fine - those issues are just compression artefacts and don't appear on the HD video on facebook.BatteryCorrectHorse said:No it isn't a real video. Her lips don't match what she is saying and the "logo" moves around the video. Worrying.
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..
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And the Greens still seem to be too high in some and low/sensible in others (take your pick)
I'd say there's still a decent level of fluidity in some of the minor party picks that's yet to develop.
Not sure everyone's tuned to the election yet.0 -
It’s not over till it’s over. I’ll wait for the exit poll on July 4th . A lot can happen in a month .BatteryCorrectHorse said:Undecided Voters
Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May)
20% Conservative
19% Labour
9% Lib Dem
9% Reform
5% Green
12% Others
27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting.
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795487775065510282
I would say it is over.4 -
I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?4 -
How much money did GMP waste on that?nico679 said:Confirmed now . The council and HRMC will be taking no action against Rayner .
Labour will be hugely relieved and so will those of us who want rid of the Tories .2 -
There may be a proportion of Reform minded voters that won't vote for Rishi, because, well...eek said:
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories.Stuartinromford said:
Possibilities.BatteryCorrectHorse said:First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478016052633732
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation
has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points
And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
It might not be a very large percentage, but announcing all sorts of loony stuff to persuade them to vote Tory won't work.
There's been no noise of this kind but can we be sure it is totally absent?
That doesn't excuse him being crap, mind, which is the main reason for the poll ratings.0 -
The Survation (which I assume was posted on here earlier) looked quite good for the LDs:Casino_Royale said:Reform still look too high to me and LDs too low.
NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 4 (-)1 -
Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/17954877240838103370 -
Finally revealing my true self.StillWaters said:
New look sandy?SandyRentool said:Dear Prime Minister. My cup of tea was not ready until 16:10. I hope I will not receive a month in prison as a result of my tardiness.
I ended up going with Nettle & Peppermint. With milk.0 -
James Daly should be charged with wasting police time.Benpointer said:
How much money did GMP waste on that?nico679 said:Confirmed now . The council and HRMC will be taking no action against Rayner .
Labour will be hugely relieved and so will those of us who want rid of the Tories .4 -
It's the midpoint of the spreads in fact. LDs to get 44 seats.BartholomewRoberts said:
I fail to see why that's implausible?TOPPING said:
According to Electoral Calculus they are due to increase from eight to 44 seats ffs! Where does that come from/how does that work??!williamglenn said:
Lib Dems on course to win a majority.BatteryCorrectHorse said:First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478016052633732
If they can go from 57 to 8 in one go, why can't they go from 11 to 44 seats in one go?0 -
I'm looking at the Redford sample data and only 20% of the 2019 vote has switched to Reform, the same percentage have switched to Labour.Flatlander said:
There may be a proportion of Reform minded voters that won't vote for Rishi, because, well...eek said:
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories.Stuartinromford said:
Possibilities.BatteryCorrectHorse said:First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478016052633732
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation
has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points
And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
It might not be a very large percentage, but announcing all sorts of loony stuff to persuade them to vote Tory won't work.
There's been no noise of this kind but can we be sure it is totally absent?
That doesn't excuse him being crap, mind, which is the main reason for the poll ratings.
Worse (for the Tories) 82% of the Brexit party vote in 2019 are voting for Reform - I don't see that many swing votes in the Reform electorate. At best for the Tories they don't turn up and vote.0 -
... they would look silly, surely?..eek said:
It's going to take a lot of people doing that to solve the tory party problem - I can't see that many people willing to vote with a clothes peg on their nose...Casino_Royale said:
My guess is some people vote Tory with the biggest clothes peg on their nose in history, just to ensure Labour don't have a landslide with zero opposition.eek said:
Con 29%, Reform 10% or something similar would be my expectation. That doesn't actually help the tories as much as they hope thoughDM_Andy said:
JL Partners is the most Tory-leaning of the pack at the moment, their last poll had Labour on 41%, Conservatives on 26% and Reform on 13% so maybe Con+Ref>Lab?SouthamObserver said:
Must R&W and/or JL Partners.SouthamObserver said:
I am not seeing that on the Guido Twitter feed, just the report of a rumour there is a positive poll for the Tories. But maybe I am not picking all the Tweets up. Anyway, Survation would see to be the obvious contender as it had Labour on 48 last week with the Greens on 2, so that looked like a significant outlier and Labour's number is almost certain to go down. If ythat is accompanied by a rise in the Tory number, it would certainly be interesting.DougSeal said:
Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presentingydoethur said:
Over whom?DougSeal said:
Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?ydoethur said:
It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?DougSeal said:
Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Toriesbigjohnowls said:Excellent information.
Thanks for posting.
Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide0 -
Interesting as seems to confirm the core vote rationale.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795487724083810337
I thought the figures for all would be lower in support. Suggests it’s not quite the toxic policy suggested, though doesn’t seem to have had any impact thus far.
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With those polls who do we think will be the funniest people to watch from 9:58 to 10:04? Close run one between Novara and GBN for me.0
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On those figures disregarding the DKs isn't a bad option.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Undecided Voters
Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May)
20% Conservative
19% Labour
9% Lib Dem
9% Reform
5% Green
12% Others
27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting.
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795487775065510282
I would say it is over.0 -
Errr, the LDs got 11 seats at the last General Election.TOPPING said:
According to Electoral Calculus they are due to increase from eight to 44 seats ffs! Where does that come from/how does that work??!williamglenn said:
Lib Dems on course to win a majority.BatteryCorrectHorse said:First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
https://x.com/Survation/status/17954780160526337320 -
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/17954877240838103370 -
It's pretty much what I thought to be honest.numbertwelve said:
Interesting as seems to confirm the core vote rationale.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795487724083810337
I thought the figures for all would be lower in support. Suggests it’s not quite the toxic policy suggested, though doesn’t seem to have had any impact thus far.
Of course the people that won't have to do ever do it, support it.0 -
I think as a policy it's genius, it's targeted squarely at the elderly and I said so a few days ago.Casino_Royale said:
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795487724083810337
It's an appalling policy and I hate it - but politically it makes sense.0 -
Boundary changes reduce that to 8.rcs1000 said:
Errr, the LDs got 11 seats at the last General Election.TOPPING said:
According to Electoral Calculus they are due to increase from eight to 44 seats ffs! Where does that come from/how does that work??!williamglenn said:
Lib Dems on course to win a majority.BatteryCorrectHorse said:First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
https://x.com/Survation/status/17954780160526337321 -
And do bears shit in the woods?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/17954877240838103370 -
On one hand I want to see the Tories destroyed on the other it’s not good for democracy if a party has a massive majority.numbertwelve said:I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
I live in hope that one day we’ll get PR and then voters can just vote for whoever they like .0 -
Bit of data mining
Survation have not changed their questions from 'if there were a GE tomorrow'
Redfield are now asking about July 4, and are now prompting for WPB1 -
like:nico679 said:
It’s not over till it’s over. I’ll wait for the exit poll on July 4th . A lot can happen in a month .BatteryCorrectHorse said:Undecided Voters
Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May)
20% Conservative
19% Labour
9% Lib Dem
9% Reform
5% Green
12% Others
27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting.
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795487775065510282
I would say it is over.
Capital Punishment?
bring back the stocks?
send the Navy after the boats?
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Isn't it crazy that Labour MPs have such extreme views on immigration that even Labour supporters think they must be ridiculous enough to be deepfakes?williamglenn said:
It's a video from the BBC. It's not fake, just from 2015:BatteryCorrectHorse said:https://x.com/darrengrimes_/status/1795448965887848893
This is what we have to look forward to.
Labour MP
@RachaelMaskell
: “We must keep going [with mass migration] until we really are at saturation point, because what does it matter if we have to wait another week for a hospital visit? Or if our class sizes are slightly bigger, or if our city is slightly fuller? What does it matter if things are slightly more challenging, if we have to pay a little bit more into the system? Surely it is worth it.”
Darren Grimes literally sharing deep fakes now.
And the worrying thing is how his supporters and responders believe it! Worrying!
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=10300689336930252 -
Even stupid policies have their audience. The question is whether it'll push more votes in crucial areas to them rather than away. I'd suggest not many reform votes will have been won by it, but it'll push up youth turnout and lead to suburban parents being pushed away as well.Casino_Royale said:
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/17954877240838103370 -
Errr: he does slag off the Judge, though. Which could prejudice the Jury.bondegezou said:
The tweet is about Carroll, not Daniels, so it doesn’t breach Meechan’s order, no.Farooq said:
It's not clear to me that the above breaches the gag order. Looks like potential trouble on the old repeated defamation front, but that's not Meechan's business is it?DavidL said:
Meechan has difficult decisions to make about what to do about the repeated breaches of his court order. He really should jail him for a period now. He has had plenty of warnings.bondegezou said:
Carroll’s lawyers have said they’re suing again over this tweet.MattW said:Still digging...
"Human Scum"
(Aiui Trump refused a test, not that it was -ve.)
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Labour leads the Conservatives among EVERY age cohort polled.
Westminster VI, By Age (25-27 May):
Labour's lead by age group:
18-24: 29%
25-34: 35%
35-44: 29%
45-54: 24%
55-64: 13%
65+: 7%
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/17954893340296930831 -
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.0
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20% of the 2019 vote could change near wipeout to a mere landslide. I wouldn't dismiss that as insignificant.eek said:
I'm looking at the Redford sample data and only 20% of the 2019 vote has switched to Reform, the same percentage have switched to Labour.Flatlander said:
There may be a proportion of Reform minded voters that won't vote for Rishi, because, well...eek said:
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories.Stuartinromford said:
Possibilities.BatteryCorrectHorse said:First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478016052633732
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation
has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points
And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
It might not be a very large percentage, but announcing all sorts of loony stuff to persuade them to vote Tory won't work.
There's been no noise of this kind but can we be sure it is totally absent?
That doesn't excuse him being crap, mind, which is the main reason for the poll ratings.
Worse (for the Tories) 82% of the Brexit party vote in 2019 are voting for Reform - I don't see that many swing votes in the Reform electorate. At best for the Tories they don't turn up and vote.1 -
It's an easy one for the doorstep communication on most houses with pensioners in. One clear thing the Tory candidate can say to the question - what will you do: "yeh, well, we'll bring back national service".BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I think as a policy it's genius, it's targeted squarely at the elderly and I said so a few days ago.Casino_Royale said:
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795487724083810337
It's an appalling policy and I hate it - but politically it makes sense.
Appallingly cynical for the core vote most of whom are actually too f*cking young to have actually done national service in 1950s.
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"Matters involving council tax and personal tax do not fall into the jurisdiction of policing."Farooq said:
Investigating possible crimes isn't a waste of money. It's a necessary part of the justice system.Benpointer said:
How much money did GMP waste on that?nico679 said:Confirmed now . The council and HRMC will be taking no action against Rayner .
Labour will be hugely relieved and so will those of us who want rid of the Tories .0 -
The fat lady hasn't sung yet.nico679 said:
It’s not over till it’s over. I’ll wait for the exit poll on July 4th . A lot can happen in a month .BatteryCorrectHorse said:Undecided Voters
Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May)
20% Conservative
19% Labour
9% Lib Dem
9% Reform
5% Green
12% Others
27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting.
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795487775065510282
I would say it is over.1 -
That's new, isn't it? Wonder why Rishi pulled the "tax bung but only for pensioners" button?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Labour leads the Conservatives among EVERY age cohort polled.
Westminster VI, By Age (25-27 May):
Labour's lead by age group:
18-24: 29%
25-34: 35%
35-44: 29%
45-54: 24%
55-64: 13%
65+: 7%
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/17954893340296930830 -
I hear some Labour candidates who are now councillors are being asked by Labour to resign their council seats at once so that ensuing council by-election can also be held on 4 July (& thereby boost turnout no doubt). Please DM me if you know of any cases of this happening.
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/17954495945175329960 -
General election latest: Starmer and Sunak to hold first TV debate next week
Labour leader has agreed to take part in just two debates — the first hosted by ITV — while the prime minister wants as many as possible
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-2024-latest-news-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-d05p82tx90 -
New gold standard.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
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(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1m
Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.0 -
Yes there is that - esp if we're talking about the Reform crowd. The same applies to his size. Not his height as such, more the all round tiny-ness. You don't like to think these things are factors, but this doesn't mean they aren't.Flatlander said:
There may be a proportion of Reform minded voters that won't vote for Rishi, because, well...eek said:
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories.Stuartinromford said:
Possibilities.BatteryCorrectHorse said:First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478016052633732
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation
has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points
And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
It might not be a very large percentage, but announcing all sorts of loony stuff to persuade them to vote Tory won't work.
There's been no noise of this kind but can we be sure it is totally absent?
That doesn't excuse him being crap, mind, which is the main reason for the poll ratings.0 -
Well everyone always used to focus on their Christmas advert, but it'll be the Tory spreads this time that are never knowingly undersold.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
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Do we need to post the Yes Minister link again?Chameleon said:
Even stupid policies have their audience. The question is whether it'll push more votes in crucial areas to them rather than away. I'd suggest not many reform votes will have been won by it, but it'll push up youth turnout and lead to suburban parents being pushed away as well.Casino_Royale said:
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795487724083810337
It also really does not stand up to scrutiny and as such is kind of a shorthand for the sloppy, incoherent desperation of team Sunak.0 -
The Tories clearly should have called a general election on 7th May 2021, the day after winning the Hartlepool by-election with a swing of 16%. 😊2
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Would be the first single figure lead since the Trussterfuck if so, and beat the lowest lead in the 2001 run in.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
The 'adjusters' are breaking better for the blues - MiC both UK and Scotland, JL (perhaps), Opinium. If so you might expect the first Savanta and BMG to be better looking for them. Neither have reported yet.
The Nowcasters are basically as you were0 -
Keir Starmer's approval rating is +9%.
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (25-27 May):
Approve: 38% (-3)
Disapprove: 29% (+2)
Net: +9% (-5)
Changes +/- 19 May
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/17954928697273017720 -
True . I think the last few years should teach us that.Casino_Royale said:
The fat lady hasn't sung yet.nico679 said:
It’s not over till it’s over. I’ll wait for the exit poll on July 4th . A lot can happen in a month .BatteryCorrectHorse said:Undecided Voters
Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May)
20% Conservative
19% Labour
9% Lib Dem
9% Reform
5% Green
12% Others
27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting.
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795487775065510282
I would say it is over.1 -
I'll believe that when I see it.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.1 -
More like adjustable pegRobD said:
New gold standard.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
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Also the people that support it never did it in the first place. I blame the old movies like The Dambusters (shame about the black dog..what was he called?) Also tv shows like the Army Game and Get some in. Also the Navy lark on the Wireless!BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's pretty much what I thought to be honest.numbertwelve said:
Interesting as seems to confirm the core vote rationale.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795487724083810337
I thought the figures for all would be lower in support. Suggests it’s not quite the toxic policy suggested, though doesn’t seem to have had any impact thus far.
Of course the people that won't have to do ever do it, support it.
0 -
The best poll is the one with the lowest lead.0
-
Isn't it simply too long ago for the HMRC? They only require records for 7 years don't they?rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1m
Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.0 -
Penny isn't fat!Casino_Royale said:
The fat lady hasn't sung yet.nico679 said:
It’s not over till it’s over. I’ll wait for the exit poll on July 4th . A lot can happen in a month .BatteryCorrectHorse said:Undecided Voters
Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May)
20% Conservative
19% Labour
9% Lib Dem
9% Reform
5% Green
12% Others
27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting.
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795487775065510282
I would say it is over.0 -
Will be released at 6pmSouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/17954874248414620090 -
Hodges really needs to move on . Why should Rayner publish anything now . She’s been cleared .rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1m
Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.0 -
Now, that does make me nervous.TheScreamingEagles said:General election latest: Starmer and Sunak to hold first TV debate next week
Labour leader has agreed to take part in just two debates — the first hosted by ITV — while the prime minister wants as many as possible
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-2024-latest-news-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-d05p82tx90 -
Scots fans there's a Scottish Survation out at 10.300
-
Their most recent poll on 2nd-5th May was Lab 41%, Con 26%, Ref 13%, LD11%. I can just about see how that might change to something like Lab 38%, Con 29%.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
3 -
None of his business.nico679 said:
Hodges really needs to move on . Why should Rayner publish anything now . She’s been cleared .rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1m
Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.1 -
Why - isn't it a chance for Rishi to do some damage?Casino_Royale said:
Now, that does make me nervous.TheScreamingEagles said:General election latest: Starmer and Sunak to hold first TV debate next week
Labour leader has agreed to take part in just two debates — the first hosted by ITV — while the prime minister wants as many as possible
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-2024-latest-news-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-d05p82tx90 -
Casino_Royale said:
I'll believe that when I see it.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .0 -
Would it be that 'bad for democracy'? That is, to have a total womping over a standard issue landslide. In both cases Labour has more or less free rein. Just in the case of a womping for the Tories they end up in a not undeserved competition for their future. They might even end up being replaced by a party who promotes PR or doing so themselves if do so badly it's existential.nico679 said:
On one hand I want to see the Tories destroyed on the other it’s not good for democracy if a party has a massive majority.numbertwelve said:I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
I live in hope that one day we’ll get PR and then voters can just vote for whoever they like .
If, and it's still a big if, the result is at the Keir Starmer's genie end of the spectrum there'll be plenty of stabilising corrections. Parts of the left that don't like him will feel freer to go off to the Greens or FBPE the Lib Dems.
It always works itself out. The main thing I want to see is the party that's caused so much chaos and misery taught a lesson they won't ever forget. Though they probably end up in a 1997 or Lab 2019 position where recovery their doesn't take nearly long enough.1 -
That's a function of who is leading.BatteryCorrectHorse said:The best poll is the one with the lowest lead.
0 -
What a fucking wanker.
Pope Francis ‘sorry’ for homophobic slur
Pontiff said there was too much ‘faggotry’ in seminaries, Italian newspapers reported0 -
I suspect that's what he's nervous of.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why - isn't it a chance for Rishi to do some damage?Casino_Royale said:
Now, that does make me nervous.TheScreamingEagles said:General election latest: Starmer and Sunak to hold first TV debate next week
Labour leader has agreed to take part in just two debates — the first hosted by ITV — while the prime minister wants as many as possible
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-2024-latest-news-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-d05p82tx90 -
And the original documentation to be submitted for forensic analysis.rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1m
Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
0 -
Way out of line with other pollsters. Do they have much of a track record?Andy_JS said:
Their most recent poll on 2nd-5th May was Lab 41%, Con 26%, Ref 13%, LD11%. I can just about see how that might change to something like Lab 38%, Con 29%.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
0 -
I mean that I'd need to show up in multiple polls to believe it.nico679 said:Casino_Royale said:
I'll believe that when I see it.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.1 -
Now compare that with voting rates:BatteryCorrectHorse said:
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795487724083810337
20s: 50%
55+: 81%
There are currently 650 Parliamentary constituencies in the UK. Fully 48% (310)
had already reached the gerontocratic [defined as 55+] midpoint in 2020, with more than 50%
of the weighted vote share in each having gone grey.13 By the next election, [Now] we
will certainly have reached the point where the majority of constituencies have
gone grey.
https://cps.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CPS_JUSTICE_FOR_THE_YOUNG-2.pdf0 -
It depends on what they suspect the offense could be . If they suspect a blatant lie to avoid tax rather than a mistake I thought they could go further back .Foxy said:
Isn't it simply too long ago for the HMRC? They only require records for 7 years don't they?rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1m
Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.0 -
Wasn't date of first single figure poll lead one of the questions in the PB quiz?
Or am I mistaken?0 -
I do think there's a possibility the polls could be wrong. But I'm not yet convinced about it.
The narrow JL lead reminds me of a poll before GE19 of a six point Labour lead. I jumped up and down with glee, "Corbyn will win". He lost in a landslide.0 -
No. You heard, rightly, that reactionary oldies who hate the young and enjoy making their lives worse would support it - even though it was unworkable - while those whose kids, or who themselves would have to do it would see it for the insult it is.Casino_Royale said:
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/17954877240838103370 -
To his own foot? Certainly.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why - isn't it a chance for Rishi to do some damage?Casino_Royale said:
Now, that does make me nervous.TheScreamingEagles said:General election latest: Starmer and Sunak to hold first TV debate next week
Labour leader has agreed to take part in just two debates — the first hosted by ITV — while the prime minister wants as many as possible
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-2024-latest-news-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-d05p82tx91 -
I believe they're fairly new, the chap running it used to run polling for the government?Foxy said:
Way out of line with other pollsters. Do they have much of a track record?Andy_JS said:
Their most recent poll on 2nd-5th May was Lab 41%, Con 26%, Ref 13%, LD11%. I can just about see how that might change to something like Lab 38%, Con 29%.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
0 -
It's the old problem - we each only get one vote.Casino_Royale said:
I mean that I'd need to show up in multiple polls to believe it.nico679 said:Casino_Royale said:
I'll believe that when I see it.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.
If I definitely want a change but don't want to give Labour a 100+ landslide, and I am in a marginal, what do I do?0 -
Are you convinced that the video of Rachael Maskell is real yet?BatteryCorrectHorse said:I do think there's a possibility the polls could be wrong. But I'm not yet convinced about it.
0 -
90 minutes of Rory & AC chatting to Kwasi Kwarteng on TRIP Leading.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98z_Jvhbwvc
00:00 Intro
04:50 Would you pass the Eton entry exam today?
06:36 Parental heritage and upbringing
11:25 In simple terms what was good and bad about the British Empire
13:29 Why has the British Empire taken such a hold on the right wing psyche
19:33 Rory and Kwasi weren't popular at Eton
21:05 What are the pros of Liz Truss?
23:58 How Boris Johnson's premiership started good but lost its way
28:18 Why did you want a career in politics?
33:08 Would you give advice to Rachel Reeves?
36:32 Thoughts on Keir Starmer going more left and now being more right
40:41 Why there has to be an element of populism in the Conservative Party
41:46 Talk us through ethnicity in British Politics
45:23 Do you think the Rwanda plan is working?
46:25 Net Zero climate goals and how can we financially make it
49:46 Importance of not being so reliant on China
51:15 Rory and Kwasi entered parliament at the same time but had different experiences, one is a romantic and the other a realist
1:00:06 What was a bigger mistake, backing Liz Truss or backing Boris Johnson?
1:00:55 Did you not have an operation to become Prime Minister?
1:02:45 Role as Chancellor - the pace was absurd and it moved 150 mph
1:22:14 Why didn't you support Rishi Sunak?
1:23:48 Can you see a way that Labour won't win at the next General Election?
1:30:30 Who are the historians that have impacted you?
1:36:54 Do you believe in virtue?
1:38:23 Outro
1:39:27 Debrief0 -
It's all about the large numbers of Don't Knows.BatteryCorrectHorse said:I do think there's a possibility the polls could be wrong. But I'm not yet convinced about it.
The narrow JL lead reminds me of a poll before GE19 of a six point Labour lead. I jumped up and down with glee, "Corbyn will win". He lost in a landslide.0 -
I haven't checked, but you expect one or two big outliers during an election campaign of course.Foxy said:
Way out of line with other pollsters. Do they have much of a track record?Andy_JS said:
Their most recent poll on 2nd-5th May was Lab 41%, Con 26%, Ref 13%, LD11%. I can just about see how that might change to something like Lab 38%, Con 29%.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
1 -
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.0 -
Labour leading on every age group in the Survation, even the >65s
Westminster VI, By Age (25-27 May):
Labour's lead by age group:
18-24: 29%
25-34: 35%
35-44: 29%
45-54: 24%
55-64: 13%
65+: 7%2 -
Possibly to himself.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why - isn't it a chance for Rishi to do some damage?Casino_Royale said:
Now, that does make me nervous.TheScreamingEagles said:General election latest: Starmer and Sunak to hold first TV debate next week
Labour leader has agreed to take part in just two debates — the first hosted by ITV — while the prime minister wants as many as possible
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-2024-latest-news-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-d05p82tx9
He needs to give the performance of his life, and rein in the tetchyness.2 -
If that's true (and I'd love to believe it but don't think it is) then laying OM is value.MarqueeMark said:
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.0 -
I'm still at 39 30 or thereabouts. Con may struggle to get to 30 but I'm pretty confident Labour are massively overstated in polling generally atmMarqueeMark said:
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.0 -
It all feels a bit GE19 to me but thanks for your insight. Still early days.MarqueeMark said:
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.0 -
That will be because, unless those Conservative MPs have gone rogue, they'll be canvassing historic pledges and the CCHQ persuasion audiences - which will be more pro Conservative than the population at large.MarqueeMark said:
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.2 -
omg he's back!!MarqueeMark said:
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
Captain Mainwaring...
0 -
It was interesting but the overall impression I came away with was there is something missing from his character, some failure to acknowledge actions have consequences.DecrepiterJohnL said:90 minutes of Rory & AC chatting to Kwasi Kwarteng on TRIP Leading.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98z_Jvhbwvc
00:00 Intro
04:50 Would you pass the Eton entry exam today?
06:36 Parental heritage and upbringing
11:25 In simple terms what was good and bad about the British Empire
13:29 Why has the British Empire taken such a hold on the right wing psyche
19:33 Rory and Kwasi weren't popular at Eton
21:05 What are the pros of Liz Truss?
23:58 How Boris Johnson's premiership started good but lost its way
28:18 Why did you want a career in politics?
33:08 Would you give advice to Rachel Reeves?
36:32 Thoughts on Keir Starmer going more left and now being more right
40:41 Why there has to be an element of populism in the Conservative Party
41:46 Talk us through ethnicity in British Politics
45:23 Do you think the Rwanda plan is working?
46:25 Net Zero climate goals and how can we financially make it
49:46 Importance of not being so reliant on China
51:15 Rory and Kwasi entered parliament at the same time but had different experiences, one is a romantic and the other a realist
1:00:06 What was a bigger mistake, backing Liz Truss or backing Boris Johnson?
1:00:55 Did you not have an operation to become Prime Minister?
1:02:45 Role as Chancellor - the pace was absurd and it moved 150 mph
1:22:14 Why didn't you support Rishi Sunak?
1:23:48 Can you see a way that Labour won't win at the next General Election?
1:30:30 Who are the historians that have impacted you?
1:36:54 Do you believe in virtue?
1:38:23 Outro
1:39:27 Debrief2 -
Why do you think Labour leads are overstated?wooliedyed said:
I'm still at 39 30 or thereabouts. Con may struggle to get to 30 but I'm pretty confident Labour are massively overstated in polling generally atmMarqueeMark said:
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.0 -
If you are in a marginal then vote tactically. If in target seat 200 vote for someone else.Benpointer said:
It's the old problem - we each only get one vote.Casino_Royale said:
I mean that I'd need to show up in multiple polls to believe it.nico679 said:Casino_Royale said:
I'll believe that when I see it.SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.
If I definitely want a change but don't want to give Labour a 100+ landslide, and I am in a marginal, what do I do?
I am in a seat that would only go Labour when the sun freezes over, so free to vote how I choose.0 -
I think BatteryCorrectHorse is probably right about seats like Basingstoke going to Labour. Another one might be the new Earley and Woodley seat which is just outside Reading.0
-
Not sure it is quite as clear cut as that for a property asset.Foxy said:
Isn't it simply too long ago for the HMRC? They only require records for 7 years don't they?rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1m
Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.0 -
R U sure.rcs1000 said:
Errr, the LDs got 11 seats at the last General Election.TOPPING said:
According to Electoral Calculus they are due to increase from eight to 44 seats ffs! Where does that come from/how does that work??!williamglenn said:
Lib Dems on course to win a majority.BatteryCorrectHorse said:First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478016052633732
Edit: your right. For some reason I saw an EC graphic which had it as eight.0 -
Perhaps a sign that the Labour lead is frothy.Benpointer said:Labour leading on every age group in the Survation, even the >65s
Westminster VI, By Age (25-27 May):
Labour's lead by age group:
18-24: 29%
25-34: 35%
35-44: 29%
45-54: 24%
55-64: 13%
65+: 7%0 -
Whilst I sympathise with the desire for parties that screw up to have extreme electoral vengeance visited upon them I think you have to be careful about it. Next to not getting what you wished for the saddest thing is getting it.MJW said:
Would it be that 'bad for democracy'? That is, to have a total womping over a standard issue landslide. In both cases Labour has more or less free rein. Just in the case of a womping for the Tories they end up in a not undeserved competition for their future. They might even end up being replaced by a party who promotes PR or doing so themselves if do so badly it's existential.nico679 said:
On one hand I want to see the Tories destroyed on the other it’s not good for democracy if a party has a massive majority.numbertwelve said:I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
I live in hope that one day we’ll get PR and then voters can just vote for whoever they like .
If, and it's still a big if, the result is at the Keir Starmer's genie end of the spectrum there'll be plenty of stabilising corrections. Parts of the left that don't like him will feel freer to go off to the Greens or FBPE the Lib Dems.
It always works itself out. The main thing I want to see is the party that's caused so much chaos and misery taught a lesson they won't ever forget. Though they probably end up in a 1997 or Lab 2019 position where recovery their doesn't take nearly long enough.
Arguably the Tories travails began with the glee with which they contemplated Corbyn being elected Labour leader. They got their desire and eventually the large majority they felt it would gift them but it did so without them having to do any of the hard work of working out the new electoral geography or coming to terms with changes in demography. The consequences could be near fatal.
Labour winning in such a way that they are unchallenged for a decade would be bad news particularly for the Labour Party.1 -
Why do you think that?wooliedyed said:
I'm still at 39 30 or thereabouts. Con may struggle to get to 30 but I'm pretty confident Labour are massively overstated in polling generally atmMarqueeMark said:
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...SouthamObserver said:Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.0
