Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you – politicalbetting.com

darkage said:

Redditch said:

On the theme ofvthe youth turning right this is going viral on social media at present. Groups of young germans chanting auslander raus or foreigners out.

https://x.com/kunley_drukpa/status/1794393762476834935

Has anyone suggested you are a Russian troll yet?

Weirdly, despite the bot-like opinions and punctation, they did manage to give a fairly realistic view on hotel pricing earlier today. Perhaps, for a change, we've got a troll who bothers to do some homework?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The campaign has hardly got out of first gear and the head to head debates will be very interesting

I have no doubt Starmer will be our next PM no matter

There may well be a Labour wobble during this campaign. As Patrick Maguire, the party’s best chronicler, put it this week: “Something will wobble: a leak, a policy, a candidate, a shadow cabinet minister going the full Prescott. Let’s be honest: the media will want something to wobble.”

But it may not be the TV debates that do it. Sunak’s brilliance in debate may be his undoing. He was considered to have done badly in the TV debates in the Tory leadership election two years ago. He took Liz Truss’s arguments apart in ways that were richly vindicated by later events, but at the time he was given bad reviews for patronising her, talking over her and generally being an arrogant know-it-all.

The thing about a plot twist is that it should not be in a direction that the audience expects. Every time I thought that the narrative may be about to change, it got worse for Sunak instead.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/tv-debates-general-election-rishi-sunak-b2551462.html

Northern_Al said:

People are losing their sense of humour on here over helicoptergate. What's mildly amusing is the juxtaposition of Rishi having breakfast with the proles in Northallerton Wetherspoon's then leaping into his helicopter to fly to Wimbledon. That's all.

It's just that he is such a dick. Teddy Roosevelt liked golf but only ever had himself photographed riding a horse (in the days when that was a blue collar thing to do), Harold Wilson was a cigar smoker but pipe in public. Do not be seen in helicopters during the campaign is the most obvious rule. Rishi thinks everyone has a helicopter. Those advising him don't, but also do not have his best interests at heart.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Heathener said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Redditch said:

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...

Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.

I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.

Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.

Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?

He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.

A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.

And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.

Many people have never been on a bus

Indeed the last time I used a bus (not a tour bus) was in the sixties when I lived in Edinburgh

But although you have said you are voting Conservative you are not a politician attempting to represent the people. If you were, and I were your election agent, I’d order you to get out fast and spend some time amongst the people you wish to serve by using some trains and, yes, even buses.

And unfortunately your comment does rather reinforce the notion to me that Conservative voters are completely out of touch with ordinary people.

That shows you're the one out of touch.

Most ordinary adults don't use public transport.

True.

But you've got to take care - the provision of more public transport tends to be popular, even in areas with high levels of car ownership.

It would be out of touch to suggest that people don't want it.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?

More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.

e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's plane
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm

Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.

Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?

Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.

I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.

Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?

More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.

e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's plane
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm

Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.

Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?

Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.

I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.

I am sure he at no stage turned his telescope towards the Horizon.

Scott_xP said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The campaign has hardly got out of first gear and the head to head debates will be very interesting

I have no doubt Starmer will be our next PM no matter

There may well be a Labour wobble during this campaign. As Patrick Maguire, the party’s best chronicler, put it this week: “Something will wobble: a leak, a policy, a candidate, a shadow cabinet minister going the full Prescott. Let’s be honest: the media will want something to wobble.”

But it may not be the TV debates that do it. Sunak’s brilliance in debate may be his undoing. He was considered to have done badly in the TV debates in the Tory leadership election two years ago. He took Liz Truss’s arguments apart in ways that were richly vindicated by later events, but at the time he was given bad reviews for patronising her, talking over her and generally being an arrogant know-it-all.

The thing about a plot twist is that it should not be in a direction that the audience expects. Every time I thought that the narrative may be about to change, it got worse for Sunak instead.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/tv-debates-general-election-rishi-sunak-b2551462.html

I was convinced Manchester City would walk over Manchester United today and to everyone's amazement the underdogs not only won but were the better side on the day

Who knows until they happen just who comes out on top though as I said Starmer will be our next PM anyway

Sean_F said:

In China, people would only be held to account over the PO if they had offended the party bosses, in some way.

Such as by making the system look corrupt for example? Besmirch the glorious Chinese reputation and all bets are off. I did say there would be a 50% chance for a reason.

Heathener said:

Redditch said:

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...

Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.

I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.

Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.

Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?

He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.

A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.

And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.

Never? Not a school bus? Or at the airport?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carole Vorderman pushing some rumour that Sunak will step down and Cameron will run as leader.

Vorders has been hanging out with Mad Nad?

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Alanbrooke said:

Heathener said:

A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.

"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.

"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”

The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.

That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.

Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.

It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.

When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*


*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?

Because you end up re-boiling the ullage each time. And one doesn't always need it boiling hot, e.g. for instant coffee.

Scott_xP said:

@MirrorPolitics
Tories lose 1,000 years of experience in days as MPs flee Rishi Sunak's sinking ship

How many Wisdom points do they lose though? My guess is less than 1000 years-worth.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Heathener said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Redditch said:

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...

Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.

I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.

Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.

Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?

He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.

A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.

And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.

Many people have never been on a bus

Indeed the last time I used a bus (not a tour bus) was in the sixties when I lived in Edinburgh

But although you have said you are voting Conservative you are not a politician attempting to represent the people. If you were, and I were your election agent, I’d order you to get out fast and spend some time amongst the people you wish to serve by using some trains and, yes, even buses.

And unfortunately your comment does rather reinforce the notion to me that Conservative voters are completely out of touch with ordinary people.

That shows you're the one out of touch.

Most ordinary adults don't use public transport.

As an extraordinary adult, I used the bus last Monday. Our local CAMRA social group relies on the bus, specifically the Stagecoach 585A, to attend our evening socials. Last Monday evening, about 25 people were using the bus that I relied on to save me a taxi or an evening at home. Fortunately, we don’t have a Tory council, so subsidised evening buses are still available.

Beyond his Lordship @CorrectHorseBattery, who do PBers want back the most?

I could probably stand to be a Tory MP in 6 weeks time, now, couldn't I?

Don't worry, I'm not going to.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fairliered said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.

Labour 33%

SNP 27%

Cons 16%

Lib Dems 12%

Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?

No.

Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.

It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.

Indeed.

Sean_F said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Heathener said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Redditch said:

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...

Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.

I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.

Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.

Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?

He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.

A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.

And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.

Many people have never been on a bus

Indeed the last time I used a bus (not a tour bus) was in the sixties when I lived in Edinburgh

But although you have said you are voting Conservative you are not a politician attempting to represent the people. If you were, and I were your election agent, I’d order you to get out fast and spend some time amongst the people you wish to serve by using some trains and, yes, even buses.

And unfortunately your comment does rather reinforce the notion to me that Conservative voters are completely out of touch with ordinary people.

That shows you're the one out of touch.

Most ordinary adults don't use public transport.

As far back as 1974, Jeremy Thorpe used a hovercraft.

Just copying Jon Pertwee. Always chasing the zeitgeist.

BBC News - Nicki Minaj arrested at Amsterdam airport for possession of soft drugs.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmll9nwz3wlo

Has she never been to Holland before?

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?

More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.

e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's plane
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm

Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.

Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?

Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.

I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.

Who?

I don’t remember ever seeing Michael Howard on a yacht.

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlsoLei said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

CatMan said:

Lowering the voting age to 16 was in the 2015, 2017 & 2019 manifestos, so not really a big surprise that it will be in this one.

I assume they are also planning on correspondingly lowering the age for Jury Service, buying alcohol, entering into contracts, driving and serving on the front line in the armed forces? Voting is just as important as all these things so it is hypocritical to argue that that one aspect of adulthood should be changed but not the others.

Oh and I would also expect them to end the compulsion to remain in education until 18. After all why should the Government be forcing adults to stay in education against their will?

I disagree with those who say that there should be a consistent bright line divide between childhood and adulthood - that simply doesn't reflect the messy nature of reality. Besides, we've never had a single age for any of this, have we?

Driving, for instance - it's 13 for farms, 16 for people in receipt of the mobility component of PIP, 17 for everyone else.

Alcohol is legal at 5(!) to drink at home, 14 when accompanied by an adult in a bar or restaurant, 16 to be able to serve or sell alcohol, or 18 to buy it alone.

The Armed Forces recruit at 16 for full-time roles, but 18 for reservists.

The agent of consent generally is 16, but sexual activity between 13-15 year olds is usually treated less seriously. It's illegal for an adult in a position of trust to have sex with someone under 18.

Some contracts are voidable if one of the parties is under 18 - but if it's something like for terms of use, then it's 13 instead.

So, similarly, it might be reasonable to argue for a voting age of 13 for councils or referendums, 16 for parliaments, mayors, or assemblies, and 18 to be able to stand for election.

And yet you want to take one of (if not the) the most important duties of an adult in this country and lower the age at which it can be done whilst refusing to similarly change that age for things like Jury service or signing contracts. And you want to do it because you think it will give political advantage to one set of beliefs over another. You will allow children to vote on the future of this country but not buy alcohol (which you dishonestly changed to 'drink' in your reply) or fight in the country's wars (Under 18s are legally forbidden from serving in war zones but again you try to obscure the argument by changing the wording). It is a thoroughly hypocritical and indefensible position.

Er, I didn't say I wanted to do anything.

Not exactly sure why you're claiming that I'm being dishonest, either - the only point I was making is that we don't set a single age for any of this stuff at the moment, and that I'd disagree with changing things to do so in the future. Not everything in life has to be uniform!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fairliered said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.

Labour 33%

SNP 27%

Cons 16%

Lib Dems 12%

Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?

No.

Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.

Almost everything he posted was hilariously wrong.

Who could forget his posting that graph comparing the annual price cap in the U.K. with the average monthly bill for a two bed flat in Vienna?

Or his claim that Scotland provided most of England's water?

Or - my particular favourite - that Scotland had more wind power than England?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carole Vorderman pushing some rumour that Sunak will step down and Cameron will run as leader.

Maybe I'm too in the weeds of politics to follow perceptions of those who are not, but I don't follow the internal logic of why such a thing would happen. Like, why in the cirumstances of the former would the latter be seen as the option?

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.

Labour 33%

SNP 27%

Cons 16%

Lib Dems 12%

Would be lowest SNP share at Westminster in Scotland since 2010

Also implies the Lib Dems will be challenging quite strongly the SNP in the Highlands and the Tories in the Norrh East

Fairliered said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?

More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.

e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's plane
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm

Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.

Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?

Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.

I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.

Who?

I don’t remember ever seeing Michael Howard on a yacht.

Just shows that you only use very high class yachts.

Casino_Royale said:

I could probably stand to be a Tory MP in 6 weeks time, now, couldn't I?

Don't worry, I'm not going to.

You would be better than most of the alternatives.

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?

More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.

e.g. Lightning strikes Blair's plane
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4490809.stm

Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.

Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?

Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.

I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.

Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent

Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.

I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.

CatMan said:

kle4 said:

Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now.

One and done.

In Scotland and Wales the voting age is 16 too (for the locals and devolved parliaments).

Old Rentoul would consider those minor regional elections, far removed from the profound titanic battles of ideas between eg Starmer Lab and Sunak Cons.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fairliered said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.

Labour 33%

SNP 27%

Cons 16%

Lib Dems 12%

Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?

No.

Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.

Almost everything he posted was hilariously wrong.

Who could forget his posting that graph comparing the annual price cap in the U.K. with the average monthly bill for a two bed flat in Vienna?

Or his claim that Scotland provided most of England's water?

Or - my particular favourite - that Scotland had more wind power than England?

I enjoyed his Sweden will never join NATO weeks before they announced ascension talks.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fairliered said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.

Labour 33%

SNP 27%

Cons 16%

Lib Dems 12%

Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?

No.

Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.

Almost everything he posted was hilariously wrong.

Who could forget his posting that graph comparing the annual price cap in the U.K. with the average monthly bill for a two bed flat in Vienna?

Or his claim that Scotland provided most of England's water?

Or - my particular favourite - that Scotland had more wind power than England?

Amazing how many PBers still like talking about him though. His ears must be in a constant state of conflagration.

turbotubbs said:

Carnyx said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Alanbrooke said:

Heathener said:

A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.

"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.

"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”

The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.

That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.

Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.

It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.

When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*


*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?

Because you end up re-boiling the ullage each time. And one doesn't always need it boiling hot, e.g. for instant coffee.

No ullage if you built the exact amount, as I suggested.

Ullage is fresh air. Not boilable

...

Casino_Royale said:

I could probably stand to be a Tory MP in 6 weeks time, now, couldn't I?

Don't worry, I'm not going to.

Go for it Casino.

The Conservatives are going to do OK. Pick the right seat and you'll be home and hosed.

megasaur said:

turbotubbs said:

Carnyx said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Alanbrooke said:

Heathener said:

A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.

"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.

"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”

The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.

That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.

Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.

It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.

When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*


*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?

Because you end up re-boiling the ullage each time. And one doesn't always need it boiling hot, e.g. for instant coffee.

No ullage if you built the exact amount, as I suggested.

Ullage is fresh air. Not boilable

When I worked in pubs it was the beer lost in the drip trays etc.

kle4 said:

Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now.

One and done.

What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Beyond his Lordship @CorrectHorseBattery, who do PBers want back the most?

Isam

Fairliered said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fairliered said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.

Labour 33%

SNP 27%

Cons 16%

Lib Dems 12%

Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?

No.

Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.

It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.

Indeed.

So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/65030#Comment_65030

AlsoLei said:

kle4 said:

Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now.

One and done.

What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?

I wasn't arguing that the fact others don't do it is a reason we shouldn't do it - that's irrelevant as to whether it is a good idea or not - I was simply surprised the campaign has been so successful despite so few others do it. I have no idea if that was similarly the case from the reduction from 21.

bigjohnowls said:

Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK


Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)

Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.

Todays Opinium

SKS maj 186

National Prediction: Labour majority 186
Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 376 27.0% 1 216 -215 161
LAB 33.0% 197 41.0% 224 3 +221 418
LIB 11.8% 8 10.0% 27 0 +27 35
Reform 2.1% 0 10.0% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 7.0% 1 0 +1 2

Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.

What happened to Stuart Dickson? He used to be one of the site's main posters.

ydoethur said:

AlsoLei said:

kle4 said:

Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now.

One and done.

What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?

Wrong question, because until 1918 it was based on property/income not age. There were examples of 19 year old MPs in the eighteenth century including this one.

In the period 1919-20 most countries were setting the age at around 20-21 - Weimar Germany was 20.

Not surprised that Germany was ahead of us - that seems to have been the rule for most social reforms since the 1870s.

Interestingly, it seems that we were first to the party "amongst democratic nations" in dropping the voting age to 18 - I'd thought the Russian elections in 1917 were open to 18 year olds, but it seems that was only for serving soldiers, for everyone else it was 20.

Cicero said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium Scottish subsample klaxon.

Labour 33%

SNP 27%

Cons 16%

Lib Dems 12%

Would be lowest SNP share at Westminster in Scotland since 2010

Also implies the Lib Dems will be challenging quite strongly the SNP in the Highlands and the Tories in the Norrh East

In 2017 the LDs got 4 seats on 6.8% of the vote in Scotland, on such a low voteshare it's impressive they managed to get a proportionate number of seats on FPTP. It's incredible how low their vote has gone across most seats.

The Tories potentially maintaining their seats in Scotland during a potential landslide loss when they still only had 1 when they won a majority in 2015 is likewise pretty noteworthy - the May result, albeit not down to her necessarily, is overlooked in how remarkable it was.

kle4 said:

AlsoLei said:

kle4 said:

Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now.

One and done.

What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?

I wasn't arguing that the fact others don't do it is a reason we shouldn't do it - that's irrelevant as to whether it is a good idea or not - I was simply surprised the campaign has been so successful despite so few others do it. I have no idea if that was similarly the case from the reduction from 21.

It happened at much the same time in the USA (1971) Germany (1975) Australia (1973) France (1974).

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Can people not lose their shit tomorrow if boyhood Southampton fan Rishi Sunak is at the play-off final.

He will be in tune with the nation in wanting Dirty Leeds to lose.

You claimed you could win any seat in the country for the Tory party. So try for one in Leeds - cos I knew you were going to post that

I could win any seat in Leeds, between 2005 and 2011 I worked in Leeds city centre, I know my people.

bigjohnowls said:

bigjohnowls said:

Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK


Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)

Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.

Todays Opinium

SKS maj 186

National Prediction: Labour majority 186
Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 376 27.0% 1 216 -215 161
LAB 33.0% 197 41.0% 224 3 +221 418
LIB 11.8% 8 10.0% 27 0 +27 35
Reform 2.1% 0 10.0% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 7.0% 1 0 +1 2

I think Starmer, Davey and the Greens would take that. Possibly the Tories too, given the darker projections.

..

Heathener said:

Clutch_Brompton said:

Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.

1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.

2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.

However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.

I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls

Is it that Scotch subsamples are only worth noting when they're bad for the SNP?

Here on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific) in the USA, it is the Memorial Day Weekend, with next Monday as Memorial Day - the official Federal holiday (banks closed) by law on last Monday in May, honoring the war dead of America's deadly wars

Established shortly after the Civil War as "Decoration Day" so called because families would decorate the graves of fallen Union soldiers with flowers & other memorials to their sons, husbands, fathers, etc. Which remains the American custom, expanded to soldiers, sailors, airmen & women who died in Spanish American War, Philippine Insurrection, WWI, WW2, Korean War, Vietnam War, Gulf War, Iraq War, Afghanistan War & bunch of other conflicts in between.

For a LONG time, Memorial Day has been regarded in America as THE start to summer.

As in, avoid wearing white BEFORE Memorial Day (or after Labor Day in early September. Memorial Day & Labor Day weekends remain the book-ends of the great American Summer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorial_Day

There is also a Confederate Memorial Day (various dates) also established after the Civil War, and still legally observed as an official State Holiday in Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas, and official recognized in some manner in Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

In other words every seceding CSA state except Arkansas plus two border states represented in Confederate Congress and which supplied large numbers of soldiers to the Rebel Army. Back in the day, and up to present day, a political football for whomever what's to kick it around.

Naturally embraced by many racists AND reactionaries (note prominence of Confederate battle flag at Trump's January 2021 jamboree).

HOWEVER it would be wrong to conclude that all who still observe Confederate Memorial Day in some fashion are part of that crowd. Many, indeed most are NOT, but are rather people who have a family connection with some (by now most certainly) dead Rebel soldier.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederate_Memorial_Day

She who laughs last etc.

My special boiled flask water seems to be catching on with my Devonian friends. Apparently they prefer that to cryptosporidiosis.

So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?