rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.

Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.

Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.

There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.

But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.

In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.

People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.

So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.

Chameleon said:

Oh my god. 1.5 days in - Tragic speed in the rain, awful launch, annoying journos from the sun, planted qs, welsh euros gafe and visiting the titanic. Just incredible density of screw-ups. And this is things they likely had planned!

rcs1000 said:

Cicero said:

Farooq said:

Cicero said:

Farooq said:

bondegezou said:

Andy_JS said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Anyone can read about WW2. This "distant in time" thing doesn't wash for me.

Anyone can read about ancient Rome too. Just because you can read about it, doesn't stop it feeling distant in time.

Fun fact: George III was born closer to the time that the Roman Empire existed, than to today.

You need to define your terms.

The Classical Empire fell in the West in AD 476 when Romulus Agustulus was overthrown by Odacer. The Byzantine Empire, which spoke Greek, not Latin and was a radical change from Classical Rome, even though it claimed continuity, fell with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. Meanwhile the Holy Roman Empire, which claimed descent from the Western Empire, despite being founded in AD 800 by Frankish barbarians, did not formally dissolve until 1806. So George III, who lived from 1738 until 1820, that is 204 years from our own time, either lived 1262 years from the fall of the Western Empire, or he lived 286 years after the fall of Constantinople (so still lived closer to our own time), or he was actually contemporary with the Holy Roman Empire.

Oh, and one minor point, I did say "was born", not "lived". I was maximising the effect by choosing someone famous who was born just before the half way point.

You did, I was just making the point that the Roman Empire with togas really was a long time ago. The Byzantine Empire was only Roman in name, and quite a lot of places called themselves heirs to the Romans, including the HRE and even definitively barbarian Muscovy.

Indeed, Tsar comes from Ceasar. (Something that is more obvious when you realise the alternative spelling of Tsar is Czar.)

Northern_Al said:

I suspect that Sunak hoped that his surprise GE announcement would catch Labour on the back foot, as they were assuming an autumn election.

Unfortunately for him, it appears that the announcement has caught his own party much more on the back foot, as they were sure it would be an autumn election.

Already, there's no doubt which party is more pissed off with his precipitous election call.

Cleitophon said:

The labour leads seem to be pulling ahead now...wow.. . Just inching ahead across all the polling firms. What a horrific start to the campaign for the tories.

Farooq said:

AlsoLei said:

The latest Tory ad:



The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.

They're making a dull, sensible guy seem like Action Man.
This is not incompetence from the Tories, it's suicide. They are trying to erase themselves.

Cleitophon said:

The labour leads seem to be pulling ahead now...wow.. . Just inching ahead across all the polling firms. What a horrific start to the campaign for the tories.

Farooq said:

AlsoLei said:

The latest Tory ad:



The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.

They're making a dull, sensible guy seem like Action Man.
This is not incompetence from the Tories, it's suicide. They are trying to erase themselves.

JosiasJessop said:

There are reports that another Russian S400 SAM setup got the good news last night

Russia are losing a fair few of their best SAM systems.

Not sure if this is that one, or the one from the day before, but here's one being hit *whilst* launching. There are lots of nice secondary explosions.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1793631578230263930

Farooq said:

AlsoLei said:

The latest Tory ad:



The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.

They're making a dull, sensible guy seem like Action Man.
This is not incompetence from the Tories, it's suicide. They are trying to erase themselves.

Ratters said:

Cleitophon said:

The labour leads seem to be pulling ahead now...wow.. . Just inching ahead across all the polling firms. What a horrific start to the campaign for the tories.

Maybe the swingback will get the Tories back to where they were a month or two ago when it eventually arrives...

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

This is a policy choice. Without state intervention, a situation where a large number of pensioners in aggregate have lots of assets and the pool of workers is restricted would lead to a transfer of wealth in favour of the young.

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Cookie said:

Farooq said:

AlsoLei said:

The latest Tory ad:



The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.

They're making a dull, sensible guy seem like Action Man.
This is not incompetence from the Tories, it's suicide. They are trying to erase themselves.

Yes, it reminds three separate groups of voters why they might like him.

I mean - there is the kernel of a point in there. He's a bit all-things-to-all-men. But all men like someone who is all things to them. I'm no expert, but I'd have thought you're surely better off picking one thing your opponent is probably going to do and saying why that's bad.

On face value, it's completely shit. Then I think, the people coming up with this are presumably highly paid professionals who know what they are doing and I'm just an arsehole on the Internet with a barn full of dismantled cars so what the fuck do I know? But then I look again and, no, it's shit.

It looks so shit I couldn't even be bothered to read the captions.

Contrast with this from Labour, re the Titanic cockup.

A Labour source said: “Sorry: there is no Labour source quote that can make this more ridiculous than it already is”
https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1794001816625041501

Ghedebrav said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Yes - I was going to say this. The cost of paying for the pensions and care of the 65+ is at least as pertinent as housing pressures, and at least the migrants from other countries are generally working for a living, unlike (and I am purposefully saying a negative stereotype that is not my actual view) the Mail-reading, free-movement-denying boomers with no mortgage, triple-locked pensions and the petty self-entitled attitude of your average toddler.

kle4 said:

Ghedebrav said:

Andy_JS said:

Eabhal said:

Have we don't the Yougov megapoll yet?

Dura_Ace was right - the only group with a Tory majority is 70+. It's 59%:9% Labour: Conservative in mine!

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins

Reform twice as popular with 18-24s compared to 25-29s, 6% vs 3%.

I was most struck how LD support is pretty much the same for every age band.

They are spread thin but consistently.

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.

Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.

Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.

There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.

But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.

In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.

People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.

So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.

The other possible solution, as Alanbrooke sensibly points out, is a significant increase in productivity.
Though it's not at all clear how that's to come about in the UK in a manner which solves our problems.

Remember that every person working in an old age people's home, is a person who isn't building things for export. Remember too, that the jobs looking after the oldies are the least automatable out there.

Andy_JS said:

This must be quite a sobering time for Keir Starmer, knowing that in less than 1,000 hours he's going to be handling nuclear codes, talking to Biden, dealing with Putin's antics, etc.

Cookie said:

Farooq said:

AlsoLei said:

The latest Tory ad:



The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.

They're making a dull, sensible guy seem like Action Man.
This is not incompetence from the Tories, it's suicide. They are trying to erase themselves.

Yes, it reminds three separate groups of voters why they might like him.

I mean - there is the kernel of a point in there. He's a bit all-things-to-all-men. But all men like someone who is all things to them. I'm no expert, but I'd have thought you're surely better off picking one thing your opponent is probably going to do and saying why that's bad.

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Cookie said:

Farooq said:

AlsoLei said:

The latest Tory ad:



The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.

They're making a dull, sensible guy seem like Action Man.
This is not incompetence from the Tories, it's suicide. They are trying to erase themselves.

Yes, it reminds three separate groups of voters why they might like him.

I mean - there is the kernel of a point in there. He's a bit all-things-to-all-men. But all men like someone who is all things to them. I'm no expert, but I'd have thought you're surely better off picking one thing your opponent is probably going to do and saying why that's bad.

On face value, it's completely shit. Then I think, the people coming up with this are presumably highly paid professionals who know what they are doing and I'm just an arsehole on the Internet with a barn full of dismantled cars so what the fuck do I know? But then I look again and, no, it's shit.

It looks so shit I couldn't even be bothered to read the captions.

Contrast with this from Labour, re the Titanic cockup.

A Labour source said: “Sorry: there is no Labour source quote that can make this more ridiculous than it already is”
https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1794001816625041501

It's reached the stage in the West Wing where Bartlet wins the debate so comprehensively the staff decline to offer any spin...

DecrepiterJohnL said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

rcs1000 said:

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I know why politically Labour won't announce this during a GE campaign but they really should scrap the triple lock and focus on making working people the priority. We have been utterly left out to dry.

The triple lock is a red herring. We have among the lowest state pensions in Europe. If you want to hit pensioners, look instead at higher rate tax relief on private pension contributions which favours the rich, including all the pundits who complain about the triple lock.

Nigelb said:

Still, at least our conservatives are merely useless.

The Republican National Committee's "senior counsel for election integrity" has updated her profile pic to feature her mug shot...

She was recently arraigned in Arizona for her role in a plot to overturn the state's election results.
https://x.com/Timodc/status/1793988493322150377

Redditch said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.

Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.

Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.

There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.

But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.

In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.

People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.

So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.

Oh sure I know plenty of friends of my parents and some have been retired for 30 years since the age of 50 with big fat pensions and their main problem is trying to find ways to spend their money. This surely cannot be sustainable and i dont think its even good for the retirees who become ever more complacent and set in their ways and out of touch with mainstream society. The fact this same generation derides the young as being lazy is the icing on the cake.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Super Size Me director Morgan Spurlock dies aged 53

Redditch said:

Cleitophon said:

The labour leads seem to be pulling ahead now...wow.. . Just inching ahead across all the polling firms. What a horrific start to the campaign for the tories.

Ive known people who have been tory all their lives now firmly stating they will vote Labour. People arent optimistic but they are angry. Also Sunak has interfered with the euros with his silly election call.

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Super Size Me director Morgan Spurlock dies aged 53

Just one month of eating too much McDonalds proving fatal.

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.

Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.

Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.

There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.

But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.

In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.

People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.

So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.

The other possible solution, as Alanbrooke sensibly points out, is a significant increase in productivity.
Though it's not at all clear how that's to come about in the UK in a manner which solves our problems.

Remember that every person working in an old age people's home, is a person who isn't building things for export. Remember too, that the jobs looking after the oldies are the least automatable out there.

Or every job automated frees up someone for the care sector.

If only we had a manufacturing base to automate, eh @Alanbrooke

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.

Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.

Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.

There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.

But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.

In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.

People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.

So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.

The other possible solution, as Alanbrooke sensibly points out, is a significant increase in productivity.
Though it's not at all clear how that's to come about in the UK in a manner which solves our problems.

Remember that every person working in an old age people's home, is a person who isn't building things for export. Remember too, that the jobs looking after the oldies are the least automatable out there.

turbotubbs said:

Andy_JS said:

Chameleon said:

Oh my god. 1.5 days in - Tragic speed in the rain, awful launch, annoying journos from the sun, planted qs, welsh euros gafe and visiting the titanic. Just incredible density of screw-ups. And this is things they likely had planned!

Aussie Isaac Levido is Sunak's campaign manager I believe.

I take issue with the idea of mentioning the Euros in Wales is somehow a gaffe. Are you not allowed to be interested in a major tournament if your team isn't competing? Will no-one other than Man Utd and Man City fans watch the FA Cup final?
Desperate times.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_xP said:

Andy_JS said:

Scott_xP said:

Another Tory MP throws in the towel

You might be referring to David Evennett who's been MP for Crayford since 1983 (with a gap between 1997 and 2005).

https://x.com/DavidEvennettMP

He brings the total number of Tory MPs quitting ahead of the number who left in 1997

I do find this obsession with the number of Tory MPs standing down to be slightly strange. I don't remember PB being so preoccupied with this in 2010 when 100 Labour MPs stood down.

RandallFlagg said:

LostPassword said:

Cleitophon said:

The labour leads seem to be pulling ahead now...wow.. . Just inching ahead across all the polling firms. What a horrific start to the campaign for the tories.

Remember that the big lead of 50-25 from ComRes came a few days after the 2017 election was called, and that was the high point before things went downhill.

So, if this was going to be a re-run of 2017, where the party with a huge lead blows it, we are still exactly on the flightpath.

For all his faults, Corbyn is a much better campaigner than Sunak.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_xP said:

Andy_JS said:

Scott_xP said:

Another Tory MP throws in the towel

You might be referring to David Evennett who's been MP for Crayford since 1983 (with a gap between 1997 and 2005).

https://x.com/DavidEvennettMP

He brings the total number of Tory MPs quitting ahead of the number who left in 1997

I do find this obsession with the number of Tory MPs standing down to be slightly strange. I don't remember PB being so preoccupied with this in 2010 when 100 Labour MPs stood down.

Ghedebrav said:

malcolmg said:

Ghedebrav said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Yes - I was going to say this. The cost of paying for the pensions and care of the 65+ is at least as pertinent as housing pressures, and at least the migrants from other countries are generally working for a living, unlike (and I am purposefully saying a negative stereotype that is not my actual view) the Mail-reading, free-movement-denying boomers with no mortgage, triple-locked pensions and the petty self-entitled attitude of your average toddler.

Sweeping statement there claiming immigrants are all working and your pathetic degeneration of indigenous pensioners who worked hard all their lives for a pittance pension ( lowest in teh developed world ) tells me you are an arsehole extrodinaire.

"and I am purposefully saying a negative stereotype that is not my actual view"

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Andy_JS said:

Chameleon said:

Oh my god. 1.5 days in - Tragic speed in the rain, awful launch, annoying journos from the sun, planted qs, welsh euros gafe and visiting the titanic. Just incredible density of screw-ups. And this is things they likely had planned!

Aussie Isaac Levido is Sunak's campaign manager I believe.

I take issue with the idea of mentioning the Euros in Wales is somehow a gaffe. Are you not allowed to be interested in a major tournament if your team isn't competing? Will no-one other than Man Utd and Man City fans watch the FA Cup final?
Desperate times.

I mean, sure, but put the question in a different way. It was obvious he didn’t realise Wales didn’t make it through. Just a complete lack of awareness. The guy hasn’t got a clue about ordinary people.

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

This is a policy choice. Without state intervention, a situation where a large number of pensioners in aggregate have lots of assets and the pool of workers is restricted would lead to a transfer of wealth in favour of the young.

I agree. In a world where there was no government, the outcome would be as you suggest.

However, that is not the world we live in. In the world we live in, retirees have votes, and make up an increasing proportion of voters.

Look around the world: in Italy the old have shafted the young by keeping them in the Euro. Look at the rust belt in the US: the reason the young are fleeing to the sunbelt is because of the high taxes needed to pay benefits to retirees. And every young person that leaves makes the voter base ever more dominated by oldies. Look at Japan, where ghost towns proliferate and the birth rate continues to plummet, because who needs the twin burdens of paying for oldies and paying for children.

Somebody once said that democracy dies when we realize we can all vote ourselves a pay rise. The greying of the electorate is causing exactly that scenario: a class of voters who are deeply invested in the status quo, at the expense of the young.

Leon said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Anyone can read about WW2. This "distant in time" thing doesn't wash for me.

No, these things do fade. Young Germans - under 30 - have zero guilt about the war. I’ve noticed it (and I don’t blame them)

It’s a human universal. At some point even the greatest atrocity becomes a quaint or eye raising passage in history books. Some fade away very quickly - the Armenian genocide. Some last much longer like WW2, Nazism and the Holocaust - but they too are now losing emotional force, even in
Germany itself

I read a tweet the other day about young people knowing F all about Anne Frank, for instance

Yet the German government seems obsessed about causing no offence to Israel, more so than any other European government afaIcs. I can’t think that isn’t connected to Holocaust guilt.

That’s my point. Middle aged and old Germans - politicians - still guilt. Young Germans? Not at all

BartholomewRoberts said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Do you have a source on the claim that they are more tolerant in areas of high immigration than low?

Yes London is more tolerant, but elsewhere I'm not convinced that places like Blackpool, Burnley, Blackburn, Bolton etc are full of just tolerance. And they have high migration levels too.

So maybe it's not migration levels but prosperity and investment that builds tolerance?

Those B towns have had the migration but haven't had the investment London has had.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with a growing population, but it needs to be met with growing investment and construction.

noneoftheabove said:

Cookie said:

Farooq said:

AlsoLei said:

The latest Tory ad:



The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.

They're making a dull, sensible guy seem like Action Man.
This is not incompetence from the Tories, it's suicide. They are trying to erase themselves.

Yes, it reminds three separate groups of voters why they might like him.

I mean - there is the kernel of a point in there. He's a bit all-things-to-all-men. But all men like someone who is all things to them. I'm no expert, but I'd have thought you're surely better off picking one thing your opponent is probably going to do and saying why that's bad.

There is clearly a group of people for whom Starmers flip flopping clearly aggravates, look at Isam on here who gets frustrated that most of pb don't take issue with it. But its probably like 10% of the electorate, and there are another 10% who positively approve of him being a bit Machiavellian and pragmatic, and another 80% who aren't bothered either way.

Not to mention this parliament has been the most flip floppy set of governments in our lifetimes by far, and flip flopping for reasons of personal ambition and party disagreements, not pragmatism.

BartholomewRoberts said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Do you have a source on the claim that they are more tolerant in areas of high immigration than low?

Yes London is more tolerant, but elsewhere I'm not convinced that places like Blackpool, Burnley, Blackburn, Bolton etc are full of just tolerance. And they have high migration levels too.

So maybe it's not migration levels but prosperity and investment that builds tolerance?

Those B towns have had the migration but haven't had the investment London has had.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with a growing population, but it needs to be met with growing investment and construction.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_xP said:

Andy_JS said:

Scott_xP said:

Another Tory MP throws in the towel

You might be referring to David Evennett who's been MP for Crayford since 1983 (with a gap between 1997 and 2005).

https://x.com/DavidEvennettMP

He brings the total number of Tory MPs quitting ahead of the number who left in 1997

I do find this obsession with the number of Tory MPs standing down to be slightly strange. I don't remember PB being so preoccupied with this in 2010 when 100 Labour MPs stood down.

I remember it being discussed a fair bit, and it was indeed taken as an indicator that a lot of them saw change coming and quite a useful straw in the wind in betting terms.

With hindsight, those who did so were vindicated - change was coming, and they'd have had a long, hard slog in opposition ahead of them. The Tory MPs retiring now will probably be similarly vindicated.

MJW said:

Stuartinromford said:

Farooq said:

AlsoLei said:

The latest Tory ad:



The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.

They're making a dull, sensible guy seem like Action Man.
This is not incompetence from the Tories, it's suicide. They are trying to erase themselves.

The trouble the Conservatives have is that they've retreated into talking to themselves. If you spend your time in the CCHQ Banter Bunker, this probably seems both really funny and the thing that, if only the public would understand it, would turn the election around.

That's never a good thing for any political party, but when they are as much of a niche clique as today's Conservative Party, it's fatal. See what happened to Labour in the runup to 2019.

One wonders if another underrated problem is what is now the age, and to a lesser extent, educational profile of Conservative support. According to the polls if for a while now if you're in your 30s or under you're more likely to believe the moon landings are faked than vote Tory.

It's not been quite this bad, but has drifting that way for 10 or so years now - and is quite different to the old "left-wing" student vote in that people began becoming more conservative from their mid-20s onwards.

Older voters have kept them more than competitive thanks to demographics until the Boris/Truss scandals/shambles - but it may have badly thinned out the pool you draw upon for the kind of clever, young junior aides who tend to do the legwork of coming up with ideas and ensuring the basics are run smoothly.

Among those in their 20s and 30s who will apply for those roles the Tories are currently drawing from a very online, group of ideologically committed, posh, largely male people who think they are Dominic Cummings or Steve Bannon and understand the country despite living on another planet. Or Durham University as it's otherwise known.

A well-educated but vaguely normal talented person in their 20s, interested in politics and with some media experience simply isn't applying to work for CCHQ - because they're voting Labour en masse.

Taz said:

Alanbrooke said:

Taz said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.

Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.

Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.

There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.

But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.

In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.

People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.

So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.

The other possible solution, as Alanbrooke sensibly points out, is a significant increase in productivity.
Though it's not at all clear how that's to come about in the UK in a manner which solves our problems.

Remember that every person working in an old age people's home, is a person who isn't building things for export. Remember too, that the jobs looking after the oldies are the least automatable out there.

Or every job automated frees up someone for the care sector.

If only we had a manufacturing base to automate, eh @Alanbrooke

We.ve hidden it all in services. Feel free to chop.

I have worked in manufacturing all my adult life, since 1982.

We do have a manufacturing base.

https://www.makeuk.org/insights/publications/uk-manufacturing-the-facts-2023#/

This place was always in the news when I was young. Either shit cars or strikes or both.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsbirmingham/longbridge-s-former-mg-rover-plant-site-to-be-home-to-new-research-unit/ar-BB1mYoMJ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1a3b361aebcf49a9b257d079e47bb867&ei=9

Me too. Manufacturing is a great profession.

For me automotive, then rail, then food and beverage. Most interesting project I worked on was a new production line to make Turkish Delight when the line was moved from Keynsham to Poland.

It is a great profession and I feel nowadays it is no longer looked down on. Can't always have said that.

On balance I have had a long and generally happy career. Worked on some great projects and met some great people and managed some great people.

Including the daughter of a TV hero of my youth.

Andy_JS said:

Ghedebrav said:

Andy_JS said:

Eabhal said:

Have we don't the Yougov megapoll yet?

Dura_Ace was right - the only group with a Tory majority is 70+. It's 59%:9% Labour: Conservative in mine!

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins

Reform twice as popular with 18-24s compared to 25-29s, 6% vs 3%.

I was most struck how LD support is pretty much the same for every age band.

Suggests the yellows are underperforming with younger people given they're more likely to have educational qualifications, and usually that increases the LD vote. Maybe they're going Green instead.

Alanbrooke said:

Cicero said:

kle4 said:

Ghedebrav said:

Andy_JS said:

Eabhal said:

Have we don't the Yougov megapoll yet?

Dura_Ace was right - the only group with a Tory majority is 70+. It's 59%:9% Labour: Conservative in mine!

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins

Reform twice as popular with 18-24s compared to 25-29s, 6% vs 3%.

I was most struck how LD support is pretty much the same for every age band.

They are spread thin but consistently.

However they are concentrated by educational attainment. The more education you have, they more likely you vote Lib Dem.

People so smart they cant get elected.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Mexicanpete said:

Interesting.

Jonny Diamond on WATO having a good old go at Starmer. Jonny is bigging up Corbyn. He's also trying to get Sharon Graham to back Corbyn, and she's just cut Corbyn adrift. Jonny seemed disappointed.

BBC News seems to be generating rather than reporting news.

I thought Sara Montague interviewing Yvette Cooper on WATO yesterday was bloody awful. She was asking Cooper gotcha questions and then interrupting all the time when Cooper was explaining how she was wrong in the basis of her questions (which she was). It was obvious throughout the whole interview that she was depsrate for the soundbite/statement that she could twist and that Cooper was way too well briefed and prepared to allow that to happen. In fact Cooper was answering all of her questions clearly and showing an understanding of the law which Montague clearly lacked.

I won't be voting for Labour but journalists like Montague being put in their place so thoroughly certainly endear me to some of the prospective ministers.