The Lib Dems could win a seat from 4th – politicalbetting.com

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

You're assuming that the state will always favour redistribution of wealth towards the old.

The ICJ has made several orders including for Israel to:

halt military operation in Rafah
open the Rafah border crossing with Egypt for the entry of humanitarian aid at scale
ensure access to Gaza for investigators and fact-finding missions
report to the court within a month on its progress in applying these measures

Andy_JS said:

Does Starmer really want to win 450 seats?

He wants to be as certain as possible of winning at least 326 seats. Increasing that probability towards 100% had the consequence of increasing the probability of winning 450+ seats.

Even if he regarded winning 450 seats as less desirable than winning 360, there is zero chance of him risking not winning any majority in an attempt not to win too large a majority.

That said, I think a large majority would be seen as a good thing by Starmer, as it would give him the space and credibility to do what he felt needed to be done. I just hope he has good judgement.

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Alanbrooke said:

ToryJim said:

Alanbrooke said:

ToryJim said:

Another Tory flees the battlefield. Greg Clark standing down. Just how many disgusteds are there in his seat?

Thats about 75 of them now and oddly they wont let David Frost stand.

Well nobody has an absolute right to stand for a political party. He can pick any seat he likes and stand as an independent and see what happens.

Of course, but the rate they are losing MPs and not replacing them with anyone with experience looks like bad party management.

Agai worth repeating what I mentioned yesterday. In 2010 Labour had 100 MPs stand down out of 349 at the point the election was called. So 29%ish

The Tories currently look to be having around 80 odd stand down out of 346 - so around 23%. This is not unusual churn after so long in power.

@EmporersNewC

Apparently 'making our own laws' isn't as an appealing proposition to some sitting MPs as they thought it would be.

Depends how many of those Tories are the ones who preferred to have the EU decide anything so they could have an easy life.

Farooq said:

Cicero said:

Farooq said:

bondegezou said:

Andy_JS said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Anyone can read about WW2. This "distant in time" thing doesn't wash for me.

Anyone can read about ancient Rome too. Just because you can read about it, doesn't stop it feeling distant in time.

Fun fact: George III was born closer to the time that the Roman Empire existed, than to today.

You need to define your terms.

The Classical Empire fell in the West in AD 476 when Romulus Agustulus was overthrown by Odacer. The Byzantine Empire, which spoke Greek, not Latin and was a radical change from Classical Rome, even though it claimed continuity, fell with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. Meanwhile the Holy Roman Empire, which claimed descent from the Western Empire, despite being founded in AD 800 by Frankish barbarians, did not formally dissolve until 1806. So George III, who lived from 1738 until 1820, that is 204 years from our own time, either lived 1262 years from the fall of the Western Empire, or he lived 286 years after the fall of Constantinople (so still lived closer to our own time), or he was actually contemporary with the Holy Roman Empire.

I think my definition is implicitly clear to anyone, like you, who knows the history: I'm regarding the fall of Constantinople as the end point. I recognise other schools of thought exist and I don't mind if people disagree. The purpose was only to bring the idea of Rome a little closer to the present than it seems at first glance. The idea that the Roman Empire (in my terms) lasted longer than England has existed by hundreds of years is pretty cool.

Fair enough

Andy_JS said:

More on this.

"Alex Wickham
@alexwickham

Both Labour sources and some Tories are saying this is the most jaw-dropping moment of the week: the claim that Sunak misled a grieving mother about introducing legislation in her son’s name. ‘Psychotic’ says a Labour source. ‘Staggering’ says a Tory…"

https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1793944909893792085

It's the trouble with Rishi having learned how to do politics from Boris.

Boris would have had no qualms about making a promise like this- it was what his immediate audience wanted to hear in the moment and implementation is tomorrow's problem.

But then again, Boris was staggeringly psychotic in that regard. There's no rule against terrible people rising to the top.

Eabhal said:

Have we don't the Yougov megapoll yet?

Dura_Ace was right - the only group with a Tory majority is 70+. It's 59%:9% Labour: Conservative in mine!

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins

Or another way to slice and dice it:

The only group where the Tories lead Labour, by 33% to 30%, is over-50s with a "low" level of education.

(Page 3 at https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_VotingIntention_240522_W.pdf )

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Will the government help deliver Casement Park? Here’s some of what I put to the PM
@RishiSunak
who insisted there will be “significant contribution” from the government… but no clarity on how much or crucially, when

https://x.com/BBCJayneMcC/status/1793968165908799590

The MayBot returns?

More to the point, why is he making a new policy announcement on behalf of the government?

I suspect he thought he was making an anodyne "yeah, I'm sure the government will support your local stadium whoever gets elected" statement - but, as ever in NI, it's more complicated than that. He shouldn't be wading in during an election period.

Stuartinromford said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

So which is bigger the swing or the roundabout ?

In a democracy, it doesn't matter.

We vote for what we want, not what we ought to want.

And as any veteran of 2016-19 will tell you, telling voters that they're getting/have got it wrong doesn't end well.

Actually it does. Somebody has to pay the bills. Punting that mass immigration doesnt have any consequences is simply nonsense. There will be gains and losses and thats what should be informing the electorate.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Perhaps young people are more immune to easy scapegoating exercises than you give them credit for?

You mean scapegoating the Tories for our immigration policies?

Sarcasm or not? Hard to tell.

Not sarcasm. The idea that to talk about the negative effects of immigration is to scapegoat immigrants is a dishonest argument.

The record level of immigration we've seen over the last few years is entirely a policy choice by the Tories (perhaps because they tend to favour the interests of capital and the retired).

@henrymance

Rishi Sunak's planned election stops in full:

The Titanic Quarter
The lorry queue at Dover
Various places where HS2 might go if he hadn't cancelled it
Second home in California
Rwanda

I think what we are seeing is that all the talent and energy has moved since 2019 to Labour. The media operation is almost a complete reversal.

I suppose this may be very common as people want to be on the "winning" team and so you're left with only the true believers (or idiots).

So without getting ahead of myself, is there any value in the idea the Tories might actually poll less than they are now at some point during the campaign?

Scott_xP said:

@BestForBritain

UTTERLY ASTONISHING by Sunak.

He's "disappointed" smoking ban won't become law, but says this is "evidence of the type of Prime Minister" that he is.

What? The type that fails to actually deliver even his own modest personal legacy? I think everyone knows by now, poppet. ~AA

https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1793998472624132403

Apparently Coutinho said it didn't matter that the legislation wasn't going to pass because Sunak had, "won the argument," over the policy, echoing one of Corbyn's claims about an election he had lost.

Link

williamglenn said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Perhaps young people are more immune to easy scapegoating exercises than you give them credit for?

You mean scapegoating the Tories for our immigration policies?

Sarcasm or not? Hard to tell.

Not sarcasm. The idea that to talk about the negative effects of immigration is to scapegoat immigrants is a dishonest argument.

The record level of immigration we've seen over the last few years is entirely a policy choice by the Tories (perhaps because they tend to favour the interests of capital and the retired).

Well, yes, but doesn't make the Tories scapegoats for high immigration; it makes them the actual drivers of high education. A scapegoat is someone blamed for something they didn't do, but in this case they actually did it. So they're not scapegoats.

OldKingCole said:

I see we now have a Reform candidate in Witham, opposing Dame Priti Patel. I wonder how much damage he’ll do!
Two Labour posters displayed in Witham yesterday. Admittedly outside the Labour Hall. No Tory posters that I’ve seen to date.

Priti too busy installing phone lines* for her forthcoming leadership campaign.


*Yes, I know this isn't a thing any more, but I enjoy saying it, with fond memories of leadership elections from days gone by.

Cicero said:

viewcode said:

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Richi's press team hate him, don't they...

@skydavidblevins

In a bid to move on from the drenching in Downing Street, the PM's comms team brings him to the site where they built Titanic. Mmm...

@JamesMcCarthy97

On a visit to the Titanic Quarter today, I asked the Prime Minister if he is captaining a sinking ship going into this election

@BelfastLive

As he criss crosses the nation, perhaps next the Tay Bridge ?

The airship hangars at Cardington

"Here, at the edge of the Chicxulub crater..."

Here at the Sinclair C5 factory...

Pitdy there aren't any Groundnut Scheme tractors left to be photographed riding.

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

Cicero said:

Farooq said:

Cicero said:

Farooq said:

bondegezou said:

Andy_JS said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Anyone can read about WW2. This "distant in time" thing doesn't wash for me.

Anyone can read about ancient Rome too. Just because you can read about it, doesn't stop it feeling distant in time.

Fun fact: George III was born closer to the time that the Roman Empire existed, than to today.

You need to define your terms.

The Classical Empire fell in the West in AD 476 when Romulus Agustulus was overthrown by Odacer. The Byzantine Empire, which spoke Greek, not Latin and was a radical change from Classical Rome, even though it claimed continuity, fell with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. Meanwhile the Holy Roman Empire, which claimed descent from the Western Empire, despite being founded in AD 800 by Frankish barbarians, did not formally dissolve until 1806. So George III, who lived from 1738 until 1820, that is 204 years from our own time, either lived 1262 years from the fall of the Western Empire, or he lived 286 years after the fall of Constantinople (so still lived closer to our own time), or he was actually contemporary with the Holy Roman Empire.

Oh, and one minor point, I did say "was born", not "lived". I was maximising the effect by choosing someone famous who was born just before the half way point.

You did, I was just making the point that the Roman Empire with togas really was a long time ago. The Byzantine Empire was only Roman in name, and quite a lot of places called themselves heirs to the Romans, including the HRE and even definitively barbarian Muscovy.

Indeed, Tsar comes from Ceasar. (Something that is more obvious when you realise the alternative spelling of Tsar is Czar.)

Roll on the manifestos. This is a borefest so far. Sunak is being crap and Labour are being careful. So exactly the same as the last 18 months.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jim_the_Lurker said:

Can’t understand what the Conservative Party campaign are doing sending Sunak to NI. I appreciate there is a long way to go and I guess they want the gimmick of going to the four corners of the country. But what is the point?

I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.

Because you have to e.g. 2015, David Cameron in Northern Ireland: PM visits Belfast Game of Thrones set in whirlwind election campaign tour of UK.

You could argue that you get these places out of the way early, then concentrate on the key battlegrounds. That been said I don't think anybody thinks that Team Sunak have the sort of careful planning that Team Cameron had in 2015.

It’s a fair point - and if you got to go over the water you may as well do it early. But given the state of polls and the fight the Conservatives are in you’d imagine they’d knock the symbolic stuff on the head.

Alanbrooke said:

Andy_JS said:

Does Starmer really want to win 450 seats?

Its a good question. What will he do with a large and bored cohort of MPs with nothing to do ? The HoC bar will be packed.

And that will be different from now exactly how?

Bigger question is will Israel follow the courts ruling? If not, what will the likes of the US and UK position be?

biggles said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

Another issue is that, separated from the history we all grew up with, and therefore viewed in isolation with the moral disgust for both, fascists have a lot more fun than communists.

We saw a tiny bit of this in Brexit. Remain foolishly let Leave be the “Brexiteers” and linked them to boozing and parties. (Not for a second saying brexiteers are fascists - I voted Leave and don’t regret it).

Not convinced the Jews had that much fun in Nazi Germany, but obviously YMMV.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

williamglenn said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Perhaps young people are more immune to easy scapegoating exercises than you give them credit for?

You mean scapegoating the Tories for our immigration policies?

Sarcasm or not? Hard to tell.

Not sarcasm. The idea that to talk about the negative effects of immigration is to scapegoat immigrants is a dishonest argument.

The record level of immigration we've seen over the last few years is entirely a policy choice by the Tories (perhaps because they tend to favour the interests of capital and the retired).

Well, yes, but doesn't make the Tories scapegoats for high immigration; it makes them the actual drivers of high education. A scapegoat is someone blamed for something they didn't do, but in this case they actually did it. So they're not scapegoats.

That's true as long as you don't deny that immigration policy is having those effects.

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Andy_JS said:

Does Starmer really want to win 450 seats?

Its a good question. What will he do with a large and bored cohort of MPs with nothing to do ? The HoC bar will be packed.

And that will be different from now exactly how?

Theyll all be in the same party. No time to be a whip.

Sean_F said:

The Titanic Quarter is actually important in Belfast.

More so if the Chancellor wasn't currently blocking a major investment there

There are reports that another Russian S400 SAM setup got the good news last night

Russia are losing a fair few of their best SAM systems.

Not sure if this is that one, or the one from the day before, but here's one being hit *whilst* launching. There are lots of nice secondary explosions.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1793631578230263930

RochdalePioneers said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bigger question is will Israel follow the courts ruling? If not, what will the likes of the US and UK position be?

US will back Israel for multiple reasons including not recognising the court.

UK? Will Sunak want to make this an election issue as the Tories and Labour diverge on this? Making Starmer sound like the person saying Israel should be held to account is exactly the kind of thing this Tory campaign will probably do...

This is the question. Tw@ttering about visits to NI are irrelevant in this context. The ICJ have made a very firm ruling, my feeling is Israel will tell them to get stuffed and carry on as before, then politicians in US and UK have got to find a position. Its much trickier than the arrest warrant stuff, which is essentially hypothetical (other than weirdly Germany said they absolutely arrest them which would be a huge diplomatic shit storm).

But if Israel do ignore the ruling, US / UK continue to send arms?

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

One minute we need lots of people to pay for the oldies, the next AI will take all the jobs and everyone is jobless. Maybe a plan would help, with a bit of productivity thrown in.

Maybe it would.
The Tories ought to have tried something along those lines.

Nigelb said:

viewcode said:

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Richi's press team hate him, don't they...

@skydavidblevins

In a bid to move on from the drenching in Downing Street, the PM's comms team brings him to the site where they built Titanic. Mmm...

@JamesMcCarthy97

On a visit to the Titanic Quarter today, I asked the Prime Minister if he is captaining a sinking ship going into this election

@BelfastLive

As he criss crosses the nation, perhaps next the Tay Bridge ?

The airship hangars at Cardington

"Here, at the edge of the Chicxulub crater..."

Which constituency is that in ?

Yucatan North West

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

One minute we need lots of people to pay for the oldies, the next AI will take all the jobs and everyone is jobless. Maybe a plan would help, with a bit of productivity thrown in.

Maybe it would.
The Tories ought to have tried something along those lines.

They didnt. And nor will Labour.

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Richi's press team hate him, don't they...

@skydavidblevins

In a bid to move on from the drenching in Downing Street, the PM's comms team brings him to the site where they built Titanic. Mmm...

@JamesMcCarthy97

On a visit to the Titanic Quarter today, I asked the Prime Minister if he is captaining a sinking ship going into this election

@BelfastLive

As he criss crosses the nation, perhaps next the Tay Bridge ?

The airship hangars at Cardington

The Huskisson Memorial.

And while he's doing transport innovation, Pudding Lane - to celebrate the world's first one way street.

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.

Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.

Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.

There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.

But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.

In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.

People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.

So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Yes - I was going to say this. The cost of paying for the pensions and care of the 65+ is at least as pertinent as housing pressures, and at least the migrants from other countries are generally working for a living, unlike (and I am purposefully saying a negative stereotype that is not my actual view) the Mail-reading, free-movement-denying boomers with no mortgage, triple-locked pensions and the petty self-entitled attitude of your average toddler.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.

Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.

Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.

There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.

But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.

In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.

People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.

So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.

When Sunak did loose women one of the weirdest attacks lines to him was why do you hate old people, why do you not support them and they are all in poverty....that can't be what people actually think given triple lock meaning they have been protected against the worst of the poor economic performance for many years.

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bigger question is will Israel follow the courts ruling? If not, what will the likes of the US and UK position be?

US will back Israel for multiple reasons including not recognising the court.

UK? Will Sunak want to make this an election issue as the Tories and Labour diverge on this? Making Starmer sound like the person saying Israel should be held to account is exactly the kind of thing this Tory campaign will probably do...

This is the question. Tw@ttering about visits to NI are irrelevant in this context. The ICJ have made a very firm ruling, my feeling is Israel will tell them to get stuffed and carry on as before, then politicians in US and UK have got to find a position. Its much trickier than the arrest warrant stuff, which is essentially hypothetical (other than weirdly Germany said they absolutely arrest them which would be a huge diplomatic shit storm).

But if Israel do ignore the ruling, US / UK continue to send arms?

On Germany, making it clear you would arrest presumably avoids visits and actually having to do the arrest, which would be a much bigger shitstorm.

Allington et al. (2023), reporting on a 2021 UK survey:

“Respondents identifying with the centre and right of the ideological spectrum had higher mean scores for Coronavirus Conspiracy Suspicion and Judeophobic Antisemitism than respondents identifying [on] the left of the ideological spectrum, while respondents identifying with the left and centre of the ideological spectrum had higher mean scores for Antizionist Antisemitism and Generalised Antisemitism (which is the overlap between Judeophobic Antisemitism and Antizionist Antisemitism). Respondents who voted for Labour Party candidates and for candidates representing parties other than the Labour and Conservative Parties in 2019 had lower mean scores for Coronavirus Conspiracy Suspicion and Judeophobic Antisemitism (although the diference from those who voted for Conservative Party candidates was very slight with regard to the latter), while respondents who did not vote at all had the highest mean scores for Coronavirus Conspiracism, Generalised Antisemitism, and Judeophobic Antisemitism, and the second-highest mean score for Antizionist Antisemitism, with regard to which, Labour voters had slightly higher mean scores.”

OldKingCole said:

In other news I’ve had a letter from the relevant Officer of our local Council, advising me that my postal vote in the recent PFC election was disallowed because the signature wasn’t the same as that on my original postal vote application.
I had a significant spinal operation in October 2022, which has severely affected my hand control; I think I’m going to have to vote in person next time; I can manage a big X.

I’m a bit miffed though!

I'm very surprised that they're checking these!

Signature verification is usually only done when there's a specific question about validity or a suspicion of forgery. I can't see any value in trying to do it proactively, especially since they're very unlikely to be using trained graphologists.

It's going to disproportionately affect people with physical disabilities, too - so likely on dodgy ground from an equalities point of view.

(Also likely to disproportionately hit the young - most under 30s will have signed fewer than 5 documents in their life, and a quarter of them have no consistent signature)

This must be quite a sobering time for Keir Starmer, knowing that in less than 1,000 hours he's going to be handling nuclear codes, talking to Biden, dealing with Putin's antics, etc.

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bigger question is will Israel follow the courts ruling? If not, what will the likes of the US and UK position be?

US will back Israel for multiple reasons including not recognising the court.

UK? Will Sunak want to make this an election issue as the Tories and Labour diverge on this? Making Starmer sound like the person saying Israel should be held to account is exactly the kind of thing this Tory campaign will probably do...

This is the question. Tw@ttering about visits to NI are irrelevant in this context. The ICJ have made a very firm ruling, my feeling is Israel will tell them to get stuffed and carry on as before, then politicians in US and UK have got to find a position. Its much trickier than the arrest warrant stuff, which is essentially hypothetical (other than weirdly Germany said they absolutely arrest them which would be a huge diplomatic shit storm).

But if Israel do ignore the ruling, US / UK continue to send arms?

Do we believe in International Law or not? It can be used in a partisan way, and it can be completely balanced. Calling for the arrest of *both sides* feels right to me. Of course the partisans will hate it but they always hate anyone saying they have done wrong.

What I hope this will make Israel do is Stop and Think. Netanyahu faces prosecution both within Israel and without. He may want to go even more aggressive to somehow ward that off, but as we have seen his partners in his (very shaky) government disagree. So it is pressure on them as well.

Scott_xP said:

@wethinkpolling

1/ As Rishi Sunak’s suit dries out and Keir Starmer’s copy of #ThingsCanOnlyGetBetter is stashed for another day, our first poll since the #GeneralElection was called looks like this:

🔴 Lab 47% (+1)
🔵 Con 22% (-1)
⚪ Ref 12% (+1)
🟠 LD 8% (NC)
🟢 Green 6% (-2)
🟢 SNP 3% (+1)

Perhaps we need to get used the concept of 'swingaway'.

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

Don't migrants become old and require care? Could it be easier to deal with a smaller number of elderly now than a much larger number in the future and embrace a little of the Japanese approach?

Sure, but that would require slashing support for our current generation of pensioners. We've spent the last 14 years doing the opposite!

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@wethinkpolling

1/ As Rishi Sunak’s suit dries out and Keir Starmer’s copy of #ThingsCanOnlyGetBetter is stashed for another day, our first poll since the #GeneralElection was called looks like this:

🔴 Lab 47% (+1)
🔵 Con 22% (-1)
⚪ Ref 12% (+1)
🟠 LD 8% (NC)
🟢 Green 6% (-2)
🟢 SNP 3% (+1)

Perhaps we need to get used the concept of 'swingaway'.

Sunak called the election just before running out of road.

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@wethinkpolling

1/ As Rishi Sunak’s suit dries out and Keir Starmer’s copy of #ThingsCanOnlyGetBetter is stashed for another day, our first poll since the #GeneralElection was called looks like this:

🔴 Lab 47% (+1)
🔵 Con 22% (-1)
⚪ Ref 12% (+1)
🟠 LD 8% (NC)
🟢 Green 6% (-2)
🟢 SNP 3% (+1)

Perhaps we need to get used the concept of 'swingaway'.

Early days yet, but I've argued before that the Green vote is the easiest vote to squeeze, and perhaps that poll is evidence of it.

viewcode said:

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Richi's press team hate him, don't they...

@skydavidblevins

In a bid to move on from the drenching in Downing Street, the PM's comms team brings him to the site where they built Titanic. Mmm...

@JamesMcCarthy97

On a visit to the Titanic Quarter today, I asked the Prime Minister if he is captaining a sinking ship going into this election

@BelfastLive

As he criss crosses the nation, perhaps next the Tay Bridge ?

The airship hangars at Cardington

"Here, at the edge of the Chicxulub crater..."

It is closer to his new home in California.

Ghedebrav said:

Andy_JS said:

Eabhal said:

Have we don't the Yougov megapoll yet?

Dura_Ace was right - the only group with a Tory majority is 70+. It's 59%:9% Labour: Conservative in mine!

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins

Reform twice as popular with 18-24s compared to 25-29s, 6% vs 3%.

I was most struck how LD support is pretty much the same for every age band.

They are spread thin but consistently.

Ghedebrav said:

Andy_JS said:

Eabhal said:

Have we don't the Yougov megapoll yet?

Dura_Ace was right - the only group with a Tory majority is 70+. It's 59%:9% Labour: Conservative in mine!

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins

Reform twice as popular with 18-24s compared to 25-29s, 6% vs 3%.

I was most struck how LD support is pretty much the same for every age band.

Yes, they're equally unpopular regardless of age.

LostPassword said:

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@wethinkpolling

1/ As Rishi Sunak’s suit dries out and Keir Starmer’s copy of #ThingsCanOnlyGetBetter is stashed for another day, our first poll since the #GeneralElection was called looks like this:

🔴 Lab 47% (+1)
🔵 Con 22% (-1)
⚪ Ref 12% (+1)
🟠 LD 8% (NC)
🟢 Green 6% (-2)
🟢 SNP 3% (+1)

Perhaps we need to get used the concept of 'swingaway'.

Early days yet, but I've argued before that the Green vote is the easiest vote to squeeze, and perhaps that poll is evidence of it.

I vote green around 1 in 10 elections, generally the criteria are 1) its not important, 2) there is no-one bigger worth voting for and 3) there is no-one I am desperate to vote against.

This time around greens are ruled out on 1 and 3 and 2 is under consideraion.

The first few % of the green vote is probably very loyal, but once they start getting to 8% plus those additional votes are mostly signals to the main parties to be "green" more than they are approvals of the Green party.

kle4 said:

Ghedebrav said:

Andy_JS said:

Eabhal said:

Have we don't the Yougov megapoll yet?

Dura_Ace was right - the only group with a Tory majority is 70+. It's 59%:9% Labour: Conservative in mine!

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins

Reform twice as popular with 18-24s compared to 25-29s, 6% vs 3%.

I was most struck how LD support is pretty much the same for every age band.

They are spread thin but consistently.

However they are concentrated by educational attainment. The more education you have, they more likely you vote Lib Dem.

Cicero said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

MightyAlex said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

We were talking yesterday about the far right radicalisation of young white Euro-Americans

Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:

https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632

How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing

Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.

Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing

I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread

It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.

Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.

Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.

So, it's swings and roundabouts.

Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?

Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.

Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.

I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.

Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.

Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.

There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.

But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.

In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.

People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.

So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.

The other possible solution, as Alanbrooke sensibly points out, is a significant increase in productivity.
Though it's not at all clear how that's to come about in the UK in a manner which solves our problems.

Based on demographics, only Africa looks good for the kind of growth we built western capitalism on. However, we will have to get used to it, the planet cannot cope with 11 billion humans anyway, and even a projected population peak of 9.6 billion in 2064 is going to be a strain. A new economic model is struggling to be born- and still no one has any clue as to what it will look like.

The debt overhang is going to be the difficult thing.

Like RCS says, this is a promise to do some work in the future, but there will be fewer people to do the work.

Why will companies invest for the future when the market they're selling into is shrinking?