The Lib Dems could win a seat from 4th – politicalbetting.com

System · May 24

The Lib Dems could win a seat from 4th – politicalbetting.com

In the UK we don’t have truly national elections, each general election comprises 650 simultaneous local contests. In theory.

Read the full story here

Benpointer · May 24

First, like I-don't-know-who in East Devon tbh

Monksfield · May 24

I don’t see it. Labour will pick too much of Wright’s vote up. Wright could have won it though.

The_Woodpecker · May 24

Super article, @Quincel

bigjohnowls · May 24

Great tip.

GarethoftheVale2 · May 24

I believe Claire Wright is based in Ottery, which is now in the Honiton and Sidmouth seat. It's worth noting that the East Devon MP is fighting Honiton and Sidmouth against the LD by-election winner, so the Exmouth seat will have no incumbent

TheScreamingEagles · May 24

It'll be interesting to see what happens in Chesham & Amersham and North Salop.

Roger · May 24

Cancelled

eek · May 24

TheScreamingEagles said:
It'll be interesting to see what happens in Chesham & Amersham and North Salop.

Chesham and Amersham - the Tories have been door knocking for weeks according to my parents - not that it matters as they've always voted Lib Dem.

Next week they move to Wycombe though so I need to remind them that Labour is the natural anti-Tory vote there.

Edit to add - Gareth is a Nimby hoping to expand the Green Belt - I suspect he may be the only Tory gain (outside of Scotland) in this election..

RochdalePioneers · May 24

Win a seat from 4th? I'm only 3rd in ANME....

ToryJim · May 24

Hmm could even see the Conservatives dropping from 1st to 3rd in Exmouth. I’d agree that the independent votes seem likely to switch heavily to the Lib Dem’s, also in the SW Tory votes seem more often to go to the Lib Dem’s when they seek a new home.

GarethoftheVale2 · May 24

Benpointer said:
First, like I-don't-know-who in East Devon tbh

FPT - the problem with saying just spend more to improve public services is that public sector productivity is falling e.g. some civil servants are on strike to do a 4 day week for the same pay.

The suspicion is that Lab will put up taxes but any extra money will just get swallowed up in extra pay for public sector workers, with no improvement in services.

Quincel · May 24

Monksfield said:
I don’t see it. Labour will pick too much of Wright’s vote up. Wright could have won it though.

I think Wright almost certainly would have won it. There is definitely a risk of the vote splitting now, but there are enough opposition votes to win the seat if they align around one candidate, and given the LDs dominated the local elections in 75% of the seat last time (2023) and Claire Wright has endorsed them (which unusually I think might matter) I think they have a real shot at being that candidate. They will need some tactical votes from a messy starting point though.

megasaur · May 24

Have Bet365 taken it down? Not seeing it

Roger · May 24

FTP.

Quincel · May 24

megasaur said:
Have Bet365 taken it down? Not seeing it

No, I see it. Under Constituencies D-F. Now 7/1.

Nigelb · May 24

The_Woodpecker said:
Super article, @Quincel

Have Bet365 banned him yet ?

Sean_F · May 24

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Benpointer said:
First, like I-don't-know-who in East Devon tbh
FPT - the problem with saying just spend more to improve public services is that public sector productivity is falling e.g. some civil servants are on strike to do a 4 day week for the same pay.

The suspicion is that Lab will put up taxes but any extra money will just get swallowed up in extra pay for public sector workers, with no improvement in services.

Justice is one area where you can do a lot of good for a relatively small spend.

But elsewhere? I’d expect a lot of money to be wasted.

Scott_xP · May 24

@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”

kle4 · May 24

Monksfield said:
I don’t see it. Labour will pick too much of Wright’s vote up. Wright could have won it though.

I think the national lead is such for Labour that the LDs won't pick up as much support in areas like this as they would like.

Monksfield · May 24

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”

I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?

megasaur · May 24

Quincel said:

megasaur said:
Have Bet365 taken it down? Not seeing it
No, I see it. Under Constituencies D-F. Now 7/1.

Mine goes Easington, East Ham...

DecrepiterJohnL · May 24

FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.

Taz · May 24

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”

6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

tlg86 · May 24

Thanks for the thread @Quincel. However, I disagree. If the Tories are going to lose this seat it will be to Labour.

I think there's a broader question around the Lib Dems. It's possible they win a load of seats simply because the Tory vote falls a lot, but I still think we should expect to see a moderate swing from Labour to the Lib Dems if they are to clean up in Southern England.

tlg86 · May 24

megasaur said:

Quincel said:

megasaur said:
Have Bet365 taken it down? Not seeing it
No, I see it. Under Constituencies D-F. Now 7/1.
Mine goes Easington, East Ham...

You're looking for Exmouth and Exeter East.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 24

megasaur said:

Quincel said:

megasaur said:
Have Bet365 taken it down? Not seeing it
No, I see it. Under Constituencies D-F. Now 7/1.
Mine goes Easington, East Ham...

Exmouth & Exeter East, not Devon East which has been kaputed by the Boundary Commission.

Nigelb · May 24

OT, an actually interesting use of AI.
It's become common practice for lawyers to drown opposing litigants with quantities of documents which aren't readable on any reasonable timescale (we saw this with the PO enquiry).
They are now (even if you take this story with a pinch of salt).

GPT-4o has been out for 10 days and someone has already used it to take out their HOA
https://x.com/venturetwins/status/1793363005532782614

Farooq · May 24

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

It has one. Alt-F4.

Alanbrooke · May 24

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

LOL maybe we need a cut and paste ban. Only original posts permitted for the period of the election.

Scott_xP · May 24

Alanbrooke said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
LOL maybe we need a cut and paste ban. Only original posts permitted for the period of the election.

That's a genius plan.

No breaking news to be posted on PB for the duration of the most active betting period and reason the site exists.

TheScreamingEagles · May 24

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.

You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Roger · May 24

bigjohnowls said:
Great tip.

Great shame about Corbyn. A rare politician who gives a damn. Reading the article by Peter Oborne on the previous thread and the behaviour of James Cleverly you realise what the feeble alternative looks like

TheScreamingEagles · May 24

Roger said:

bigjohnowls said:
Great tip.
Great shame about Corbyn. A rare politician who gives a damn. Reading the article by Peter Oborne on the previous thread and the behaviour of James Cleverly you realise what the feeble alternative looks like

It's a pity he only gave a damn about Russia and Iran.

RochdalePioneers · May 24

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

Ignore Starmer?

This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?

Alanbrooke · May 24

Scott_xP said:

Alanbrooke said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
LOL maybe we need a cut and paste ban. Only original posts permitted for the period of the election.
That's a genius plan.

No breaking news to be posted on PB for the duration of the most active betting period and reason the site exists.

Mein Gott an original post from Scott !

Try doing it more.

Alanbrooke · May 24

RochdalePioneers said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?

This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?

Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?

RochdalePioneers · May 24

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?

This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?

No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.

Nigelb · May 24

Scott_xP said:

Alanbrooke said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
LOL maybe we need a cut and paste ban. Only original posts permitted for the period of the election.
That's a genius plan.

No breaking news to be posted on PB for the duration of the most active betting period and reason the site exists.

From the PB Tory POV, you can see why that might be an attractive idea, though.

Alanbrooke · May 24

RochdalePioneers said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?

This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.

I thought you had some skin in the game this time round ?

MJW · May 24

Roger said:

bigjohnowls said:
Great tip.
Great shame about Corbyn. A rare politician who gives a damn. Reading the article by Peter Oborne on the previous thread and the behaviour of James Cleverly you realise what the feeble alternative looks like

But one who holds certain views are so catastrophically misguided, even if you're coming at it from a normal, rather than a crank, left-wing perspective that he's done immense damage to his own cause.

You'd say Liz Truss "gives a damn" too but has probably achieved something similar for her part of the right.

It very much matters what you "give a damn" about.

Theuniondivvie · May 24

Not the least amazing thing of the last few months is Paul Mason’s transformation into a Starmerite simp. Sad that thus far he’s not even got anything in return for such shameful public grovelling.

https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1793910452189331600?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Peter_the_Punter · May 24

Super piece, Quincel. Just what this Site was made for.

Unfortunately B365 are one of the many bookies to bar me long ago so I cannot take advantage of their generosity and your acumen, but I would like both my readers to know that I thoroughly endorse your message.

Roger · May 24

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

You could always try taking six weeks off. Do everyone a favour

boulay · May 24

RochdalePioneers said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?

This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.

This isn’t a dig, a genuine question, have you had to go through your old Pb posts and check you haven’t posted anything, especially after the lagershed, that could cause you difficulties if your opponent picks up on them?

NerysHughes · May 24

Scott_xP said:

Alanbrooke said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
LOL maybe we need a cut and paste ban. Only original posts permitted for the period of the election.
That's a genius plan.

No breaking news to be posted on PB for the duration of the most active betting period and reason the site exists.

You think you post "breaking news" ?

Maybe you should look at your posts, which are normally just posting the opinion of someone most people have never heard of attacking the Government.

noneoftheabove · May 24

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Did he also develop the Bet365 mirror sites that operate in China against their laws?

TheScreamingEagles · May 24

noneoftheabove said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Did he also develop the Bet365 mirror sites that operate in China against their laws?

No.

El_Capitano · May 24

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

Believe it or not you can actually create one. You need to install the Stylus (or Cascadea, or similar) extension in your browser, then add a CSS rule to do the filtering. I can't test it right now for Reasons, but I think it would be

li.Item:has(a[title="Scott_xP"]) { display: none !important; }

DecrepiterJohnL · May 24

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.

I shall expect further improvements to the site around August then.

IanB2 · May 24

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

That from Starmer is actually the sort of pithy and humorous comment that stands a greater chance than average of cutting through. Making fun of the Tories is surely a better strategy than that somewhat vacuous “14 years” Labour video someone linked to earlier, which simply reminds us how bad everything is and invites the question “so how is Labour going to sort all this out, then?”

Mexicanpete · May 24

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

You can't deny the spectacle did look absurd. You'd quite correctly be cheering along had Starmer cocked up so dramatically.

For what it's worth Scott provides a valuable public service.

IanB2 · May 24

Theuniondivvie said:
Not the least amazing thing of the last few months is Paul Mason’s transformation into a Starmerite simp. Sad that thus far he’s not even got anything in return for such shameful public grovelling.

https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1793910452189331600?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Corby’s biggest fan, surely not going to stand against him?

eek · May 24

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

bigjohnowls said:
Great tip.
Great shame about Corbyn. A rare politician who gives a damn. Reading the article by Peter Oborne on the previous thread and the behaviour of James Cleverly you realise what the feeble alternative looks like
It's a pity he only gave a damn about Russia and Iran.

And his garden, and his constituents...

RochdalePioneers · May 24

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?

This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.
I thought you had some skin in the game this time round ?

I do. And I have two businesses and clients to keep happy. You think I am taking 6 weeks off at zero notice?

Theuniondivvie · May 24

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?

No one’s perfect I guess.

wooliedyed · May 24

Morning all. I'd spend all morning on bet 365 if I were you.
Hackney North and SN 1/500 Labour with Diane without the whip and potentially standing?
Ilford North 1/33 on Wes with the Indy standing against him and the Tories relatively close and not losing anything like the national ground in London.....
Yes, these are very likely Lab holds but 1/500 and 1/33? Fanciful odds

AugustusCarp2 · May 24

I seem to recall that Southam Observer now lives in this constituency, and has expressed views on it in the past. He might well have something to add, but I don't know how to raise him across the ether....

El_Capitano · May 24

AugustusCarp2 said:
I seem to recall that Southam Observer now lives in this constituency, and has expressed views on it in the past. He might well have something to add, but I don't know how to raise him across the ether....

He's @SpaJW on Twitter (or whatever Space Karen is calling it this week), I think.

Nigelb · May 24

Although some of the detail in this is wrong (baseload like nuclear is usually on a fixed per kWh price contract), the general point is true.

sunny day, so I went to check the California electricity price map.

sure enough, pretty much everywhere, the current price of electricity is negative. poor generators that can't easily throttle their output, like nuclear or geothermal, apparently have to just pay for the privilege of outputting power, if they can't get rid of it any other way

in certain areas, the pricing is quite negative
https://x.com/DanielleFong/status/1793730102536347829

This is one reason why battery storage economics absolutely trashes gas peaker plants at the margin - they can get paid both to store and release energy.

Those wind farm idle capacity payments that @Luckyguy1983 gets so excited about will in the future be diverted to paying for battery storage.

Theuniondivvie · May 24

IanB2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Not the least amazing thing of the last few months is Paul Mason’s transformation into a Starmerite simp. Sad that thus far he’s not even got anything in return for such shameful public grovelling.

https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1793910452189331600?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Corby’s biggest fan, surely not going to stand against him?

He applied and was knocked back, not enough grovelling obvs.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 24

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.

Unibet and Betfred also have no constituency betting (yet) that I can see.

Stocky · May 24

I got 7/1 Exmouth and Exeter East - this has now gone.

A very good price, but I know the Honiton and Sidmouth area well and IMO 5/2 LibDems is an even better bet.

Great header.

Edit: comments please - @MarqueeMark and @SouthamObserver

TheScreamingEagles · May 24

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?

No one’s perfect I guess.

Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.

He fixed his Liz Truss faux pas in 49 days.

HYUFD · May 24

Exeter has a Labour MP and Labour were ahead of the LDs in East Devon. So with a split opposition and no Independent this time the Tories might squeeze through the middle

wooliedyed · May 24

Dagenham and Rainham 1/50 on Labour, with Cruddas standing down with whatever personal vote he has.
These odds don't reflect likelihood even if they are correct about who should win, hence go value sniffing

HYUFD · May 24

Rishi touring Northern Ireland trying to build the Tory presence there this morning

Stocky · May 24

AugustusCarp2 said:
I seem to recall that Southam Observer now lives in this constituency, and has expressed views on it in the past. He might well have something to add, but I don't know how to raise him across the ether....

Great minds ... I thought the same and have tried to wake him.

Theuniondivvie · May 24

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?

No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.

He fixed his Liz Truss faux pas in 49 days.

Shamed into it by a lettuce?

Gallowgate · May 24

HYUFD said:
Rishi touring Northern Ireland trying to build the Tory presence there this morning

Sounds like procrastination

wooliedyed · May 24

HYUFD said:
Exeter has a Labour MP and Labour were ahead of the LDs in East Devon. So with a split opposition and no Independent this time the Tories might squeeze through the middle

They start nominally 45% ahead of Labour and 47% the LDs. 'Coming through the middle' would be a generous interpretation of a hold

TheScreamingEagles · May 24

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?

No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.

He fixed his Liz Truss faux pas in 49 days.
Shamed into it by a lettuce?

It made me proud to be British.

another_richard · May 24

I see that PB was talking about infrastructure earlier.

Well the way to get more infrastructure built is to make sure that current infrastructure projects are completed on time and within budget.

I wonder does anyone have any data on how many infrastructure projects achieve this ?

And are there any patterns as to the cost effectiveness and speed in infrastructure building.

Now it seems that the bigger the infrastructure project the more overbudget and behind schedule it will be.

Especially anything which claims to be 'world leading' or 'biggest in Europe'.

If so it might suggest that this country would be better concentrating on small to medium sized infrastructure.

But that impression might be formed only because the bigger the infrastructure projects is the more media attention it gets.

wooliedyed · May 24

El_Capitano said:

AugustusCarp2 said:
I seem to recall that Southam Observer now lives in this constituency, and has expressed views on it in the past. He might well have something to add, but I don't know how to raise him across the ether....
He's @SpaJW on Twitter (or whatever Space Karen is calling it this week), I think.

Ahhhhhh I thought that X'er seemed familiar!

Peter_the_Punter · May 24

Monksfield said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?

You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.

But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 24

HYUFD said:
Rishi touring Northern Ireland trying to build the Tory presence there this morning

Pointless

DecrepiterJohnL · May 24

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?

No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.

He fixed his Liz Truss faux pas in 49 days.

Does the Prime Minister think I'm a fool?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3IuEQ45nQvw

A fuller version with reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7bVGBbDZM0

IanB2 · May 24

Picking up last night’s discussion; a short BBC piece on the LD challenge in Surrey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_uR3jj5CQY

wooliedyed · May 24

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:
Rishi touring Northern Ireland trying to build the Tory presence there this morning
Pointless

Oh I dunno, if South Antrim tips to Swann and the UUP that might be the closest thing left to a Tory in the HoC!!

Malmesbury · May 24

Nigelb said:
OT, an actually interesting use of AI.
It's become common practice for lawyers to drown opposing litigants with quantities of documents which aren't readable on any reasonable timescale (we saw this with the PO enquiry).
They are now (even if you take this story with a pinch of salt).

GPT-4o has been out for 10 days and someone has already used it to take out their HOA
https://x.com/venturetwins/status/1793363005532782614

If true, the response will be to use AI to dump even more bullshit on people

{the mind states of a number of uplifted lobsters have entered the chat}

Stocky · May 24

@wooliedyed

Any eyecatchers in your neck of the woods?

How about the Cons in Norfolk South (6/4) or Lowestoft (11/8)?

Edit: plus Cons Evens in Great Yarmouth

Heathener · May 24

Monksfield said:
I don’t see it. Labour will pick too much of Wright’s vote up. Wright could have won it though.

It’s a great piece @Quincel

I thought Claire might do it last time, but that doesn’t mean I’m confident about the LibDems this time around and it’s now messy with the boundary changes.

I know the Exmouth and Exeter East constituency a little bit on the new boundaries. The LibDems have some organisation in Exeter but not a lot further south down the Exe estuary. Exeter is very Labour nowadays and a good chunk of this goes into the new constituency. But overall, this constituency looks solidly Conservative to me and Electoral Calculus agrees putting the likely vote share as:

Con 39.4%
Lab 27.6%
LibDems 17.1%

I don’t like 8/1 (or update 7/1) but I might have put a tenner on at 40/1. H

The other part of the constituency, Honiton and Sidmouth is a much closer with Electoral Calculus going for:

Con 36.4%
LibDem 33.7%
Lab 16.1%

But you can only get 5/2 on the LibDems for this one and I don’t consider that value either.

Hmmm. I’m not sure about this one. I don’t think the boundary changes help. But if the tories are heading for a shellacking then Exmouth and Exeter East constituency might turn yellow.

boulay · May 24

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:
Rishi touring Northern Ireland trying to build the Tory presence there this morning
Pointless

Not really, he would get lots of crap if he didn’t go to NI during the campaign, being PM of Gb&NI and all that, so maybe better to get that done early so he can focus on more valuable areas as momentum builds and the landscape changes (or not).

Nigelb · May 24

North Yorkshire town has UK’s highest concentration of ‘forever chemicals’

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/24/yorkshire-town-angus-fire-bentham-forever-chemicals-pfas
A small North Yorkshire town has been found to have the highest concentration of “forever chemicals” in the UK, it can be revealed.

The market town of Bentham, which is home to 3,000 people and set on the banks of the River Wenning, is also home to the Angus International Safety Group – locally known as Angus Fire – which, since the 1970s, has been producing firefighting foams containing PFAS at a factory near the town centre...

Not good news for anything downstream, either.

algarkirk · May 24

Scott_xP said:

Alanbrooke said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
LOL maybe we need a cut and paste ban. Only original posts permitted for the period of the election.
That's a genius plan.

No breaking news to be posted on PB for the duration of the most active betting period and reason the site exists.

Not perfect of course but PB is about the best real time filter of the infinity of junk/information source in the news cycle that there is.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 24

Peter_the_Punter said:

Monksfield said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.

But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.

Aiui the SpAds got Bray banned a couple of hours too late. The story seems to be the announcement was planned for outside, then switched inside when it rained, then someone realised Rishi could not make a political speech from inside (no fighting in the war room) so rather than delete that rant which could have been made at the party meeting a couple of hours later and just make announce an election, Rishi switched back outside in the rain sans brolly.

Farooq · May 24

algarkirk said:

Scott_xP said:

Alanbrooke said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
LOL maybe we need a cut and paste ban. Only original posts permitted for the period of the election.
That's a genius plan.

No breaking news to be posted on PB for the duration of the most active betting period and reason the site exists.
Not perfect of course but PB is about the best real time filter of the infinity of junk/information source in the news cycle that there is.

You must not have met Leon yet

DecrepiterJohnL · May 24

Nigelb said:
North Yorkshire town has UK’s highest concentration of ‘forever chemicals’

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/24/yorkshire-town-angus-fire-bentham-forever-chemicals-pfas
A small North Yorkshire town has been found to have the highest concentration of “forever chemicals” in the UK, it can be revealed.

The market town of Bentham, which is home to 3,000 people and set on the banks of the River Wenning, is also home to the Angus International Safety Group – locally known as Angus Fire – which, since the 1970s, has been producing firefighting foams containing PFAS at a factory near the town centre...

Not good news for anything downstream, either.

At some point someone will rebrand rocks as forever chemicals. What matters is are they harmful.

wooliedyed · May 24

Stocky said:
@wooliedyed

Any eyecatchers in your neck of the woods?

How about the Cons in Norfolk South (6/4) or Lowestoft (11/8)?

Those prices are about right, Norfolk South has some very Laboury suburbs that are quite 'Norwich North' in nature (I lived in this one as a younger Woolie and later until 2015) and I favour Lab gain - yes I know its South but the burbs are like the burbs that are part of NN, Norwich South is mostly city if you see my meaning!
Lowestoft is the slightly more generally Labour part of Waveney so yeah, Lab gain likely
Great Yarmouth also about right - toss up lean Lab

kinabalu · May 24

Swift correction to the spreads. You can't sell Lab at 408 now. It's 390. That's more like it imo.

Thanks to Q for another real shrewdie-piece.

noneoftheabove · May 24

Peter_the_Punter said:

Monksfield said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.

But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.

Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?

Farooq · May 24

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?

No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.

He fixed his Liz Truss faux pas in 49 days.

He backed Boris, and then he backed Truss.
I think we can all look forward to Bell ending his political career in July.

EPG · May 24

wooliedyed said:
Dagenham and Rainham 1/50 on Labour, with Cruddas standing down with whatever personal vote he has.
These odds don't reflect likelihood even if they are correct about who should win, hence go value sniffing

Have there been boundary changes? I think this otherwise needs quite a deep Tory increase in majority to be a win. And this is not the type of urban seat where the Lab voters boycott over Gaza.

TheScreamingEagles · May 24

kinabalu said:
Swift correction to the spreads. You can't sell Lab at 408 now. It's 390. That's more like it imo.

Thanks to Q for another real shrewdie-piece.

Legendary modesty klaxon about the spreads.

TheScreamingEagles · May 24

Farooq said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT but relevant here

Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?

The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?

No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.

He fixed his Liz Truss faux pas in 49 days.
He backed Boris, and then he backed Truss.
I think we can all look forward to Bell ending his political career in July.

Don't be a misanthrope.

wooliedyed · May 24

EPG said:

wooliedyed said:
Dagenham and Rainham 1/50 on Labour, with Cruddas standing down with whatever personal vote he has.
These odds don't reflect likelihood even if they are correct about who should win, hence go value sniffing
Have there been boundary changes? I think this otherwise needs quite a deep Tory increase in majority to be a win. And this is not the type of urban seat where the Lab voters boycott over Gaza.

Minor changes to nominal result. Yeah it's a very likely hold but it ain't 50 to 1 on likely, its Labour defence number 8

El_Capitano · May 24

Nigelb said:
North Yorkshire town has UK’s highest concentration of ‘forever chemicals’

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/24/yorkshire-town-angus-fire-bentham-forever-chemicals-pfas
A small North Yorkshire town has been found to have the highest concentration of “forever chemicals” in the UK, it can be revealed.

The market town of Bentham, which is home to 3,000 people and set on the banks of the River Wenning, is also home to the Angus International Safety Group – locally known as Angus Fire – which, since the 1970s, has been producing firefighting foams containing PFAS at a factory near the town centre...

Not good news for anything downstream, either.

OT, but I hadn't realised Bentham was in North Yorkshire. It's barely 10 miles from the West Coast at Morecambe Bay.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

If you use Chrome I can give you my extension which does it?

Farooq · May 24

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Monksfield said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.

But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Aiui the SpAds got Bray banned a couple of hours too late. The story seems to be the announcement was planned for outside, then switched inside when it rained, then someone realised Rishi could not make a political speech from inside (no fighting in the war room) so rather than delete that rant which could have been made at the party meeting a couple of hours later and just make announce an election, Rishi switched back outside in the rain sans brolly.

I think it speaks volumes for our democracy that such a complete knob can be allowed to turn up to Whitehall and spout his nonsense without the police carting him off or beating him to the floor, even though almost everyone is deeply irritated and just wants him to fuck off.

(wait for it)

The same goes for Bray.

Heathener · May 24

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith

Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.

“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.

Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function

I mean, it is a General Election, which is pretty rare. I’m very happy with lots of cut n’ pastes, quotes, even pertinent tweets if they are on topic to the election campaign.

It’s things like holiday snaps which are, right now, a distraction.

The best way to ignore "this shit" is surely do what lots of others will and book yourself a holiday abroad?

For myself, it’s my favourite time of politics.

wooliedyed · May 24

wooliedyed said:

Stocky said:
@wooliedyed

Any eyecatchers in your neck of the woods?

How about the Cons in Norfolk South (6/4) or Lowestoft (11/8)?
Those prices are about right, Norfolk South has some very Laboury suburbs that are quite 'Norwich North' in nature (I lived in this one as a younger Woolie and later until 2015) and I favour Lab gain - yes I know its South but the burbs are like the burbs that are part of NN, Norwich South is mostly city if you see my meaning!
Lowestoft is the slightly more generally Labour part of Waveney so yeah, Lab gain likely
Great Yarmouth also about right - toss up lean Lab

6/4 in Norfolk South is 'just about' value thinking on it, anything 2/1 up a yes for Con there

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