The Last Laugh: Might Corbyn outpoll Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

What about seats for lowest turnout ?

Rock solid labour seat like Bootle ?

kinabalu said:

state_go_away said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans

https://x.com/BylineTimes/status/1793603212630769816

Could they have started this campaign worse?

Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?

Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.

This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps

Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).

Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.

His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.

and then there was Prescott smacking the voter

I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott

Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.

Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation.
I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable.
But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.

But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.

Taz said:

Northern_Al said:

CarlottaVance said:

Close of nominations in the 2024 general election is 4pm on Friday 7 June, 19 full working days before official polling day. So the political parties now have a full fortnight to pick and nominate their candidates, then get the signatures and submit the forms.…

By my reckoning Labour have about 100 vacancies still to fill, and the Conservatives 190, but new candidates are being announced every few minutes right now.

https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793563753717658027

Those 100 Labour vacancies are nearly all in unwinnable seats (though who knows). Labour's candidates are in place in all their safe and target seats, with one or two notable exceptions (Corbyn's and Abbott's).

Who knows, precisely, Jared O'Mara was selected for an "unwinnable" seat after all.

It wasn't seen as that unwinnable... it had just over a 2k Clegg majority in 2015. It was a surprise in 2017, but not some kind of crazy, out of nowhere thunderbolt. Lib Dems remained in the doldrums, Labour held everything else in Sheffield and were bound to pile in.

It's not like Labour choosing a student to fight a Tory/Lib Dem marginal in the certain knowledge they'd be squeezed out - it was a perfectly credible target, which makes the fact O'Mara passed vetting surprising.

Okay, so we’re now back to posts accumulating faster than they can all be read. Four hours at work and nearly 700 behind already, with more meetings still to go today.

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.

I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.

It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.

What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.

If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.

Year Rishi replaced as Tory leader on Betfair. I was on 2025.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Taz said:

Northern_Al said:

CarlottaVance said:

Close of nominations in the 2024 general election is 4pm on Friday 7 June, 19 full working days before official polling day. So the political parties now have a full fortnight to pick and nominate their candidates, then get the signatures and submit the forms.…

By my reckoning Labour have about 100 vacancies still to fill, and the Conservatives 190, but new candidates are being announced every few minutes right now.

https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793563753717658027

Those 100 Labour vacancies are nearly all in unwinnable seats (though who knows). Labour's candidates are in place in all their safe and target seats, with one or two notable exceptions (Corbyn's and Abbott's).

Who knows, precisely, Jared O'Mara was selected for an "unwinnable" seat after all.

It wasn't seen as that unwinnable... it had just over a 2k Clegg majority in 2015. It was a surprise in 2017, but not some kind of crazy, out of nowhere thunderbolt. Lib Dems remained in the doldrums, Labour held everything else in Sheffield and were bound to pile in.

It's not like Labour choosing a student to fight a Tory/Lib Dem marginal in the certain knowledge they'd be squeezed out - it was a perfectly credible target, which makes the fact O'Mara passed vetting surprising.

A friend of a friend who knows these things tells me that O'Mara's selection basically comes from the urgent process pre-2017 being split between factions who traded seats. The Unions were more optimistic and pro-Corbyn so they lobbied for some targets, which other factions who assumed Labour could only go backwards gave them. So they put O'Mara in to Sheffield Hallam with almost no vetting.

I can't verify any of that, but that's the story I've heard.

kjh said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.

I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.

It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.

What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.

If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.

No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.

Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.

I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.

It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.

Congratulations to those who called it right.

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

state_go_away said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans

https://x.com/BylineTimes/status/1793603212630769816

Could they have started this campaign worse?

Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?

Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.

This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps

Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).

Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.

His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.

and then there was Prescott smacking the voter

I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott

Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.

Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation.
I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable.
But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.

But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.

I've always felt that Prescott became more popular after lamping that bloke. And Tony Blair's "John is John" was well judged.

Quincel said:

Taz said:

What about seats for lowest turnout ?

Rock solid labour seat like Bootle ?

Somewhere rock solid and inner city. More likely to have young, transient voters who are less likely to vote anyway. Same with ethnic minority vote. And somewhere safe so you get 'Doesn't matter anyway' voters. The BBC did an interesting article ahead of 2019.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50417767

Commons Library has a report doing it seat by seat. Lowest in 2019 all in Kingston upon Hull and Labour holds, except for Chorley which had the new speaker so the main parties all stopped running.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-turnout/

Sheffield and Manchester Central will both also have reasonable numbers of students who’ve already started clearing off for the summer.

@paulwaugh

After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today:
- asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024]
- had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs

It's only Day 2.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

appears not to be corrupt

He can afford not to be, although some people have asked questions about how many contracts Infosys have 'won' while he has been PM

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

state_go_away said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans

https://x.com/BylineTimes/status/1793603212630769816

Could they have started this campaign worse?

Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?

Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.

This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps

Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).

Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.

His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.

and then there was Prescott smacking the voter

I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott

Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.

Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation.
I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable.
But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.

But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.

To me GB's private irritation with Mrs Duffy showed him as instinctively anti-xenophobic.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.

I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.

I'm not sure tbh. It'll be interesting if he does stay in politics; the assumption seems to be that if he loses he'll up sticks to California, but is that actually based on anything he's said?

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.

I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.

I think it’ll be overpromoted and weak but not actively bonkers like Truss or mendacious like Johnson.

Hunt is the one who might be interesting. I suspect history may give him a more favourable write up.

Unsurprisingly, the bet has now been pulled (not even repriced). Shame as Mrs Dumbosaurus, Grandfather Dumbosaurus, Grandmother Dumbosaurus and Baby Dumbosaurus were all about to sign up for accounts.

Taz said:

What about seats for lowest turnout ?

Rock solid labour seat like Bootle ?

Perhaps one of the Glasgow seats where the SNP vote could be particularly depressed.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.

I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.

I think that is a very good analysis. If the result is at the very worst end of expectations for the Tories, history won't be kind to him and that will be unfair, because most, if not nearly all the blame, lies elsewhere.

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

appears not to be corrupt

He can afford not to be, although some people have asked questions about how many contracts Infosys have 'won' while he has been PM

And an awful lot of pandemic money disappeared into the void while he was chancellor.

Given the catastrophic nature of the pandemic, economically and socially, I think it was entirely appropriate to suspend normal procurement rules.

Even if we accept a little bit of profiteering and waste might have gone on the alternative of being unprepared or ill-equipped due to due process was far far worse.

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.

I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.

It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.

What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.

If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.

No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.

Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.

I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.

It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.

Congratulations to those who called it right.

Technically, Rishi kept his word, as everything after 1 July is the second half of the year. I still wonder whether July might have been in mind much earlier than we imagine.

kinabalu said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

state_go_away said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans

https://x.com/BylineTimes/status/1793603212630769816

Could they have started this campaign worse?

Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?

Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.

This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps

Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).

Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.

His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.

and then there was Prescott smacking the voter

I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott

Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.

Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation.
I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable.
But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.

But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.

To me GB's private irritation with Mrs Duffy showed him as instinctively anti-xenophobic.

Yes, instinctively as in seeing racism everywhere whether it's there or not - the classic cry of 'racist' at anyone who asks an awkward question. Which was neither more nor less than I expected of him.

If I'd have been Mrs. Duffy I would have offered the brief explanation to the waiting press in exchange for Gordon's shoes. He would have then left unshod - or, more probably, confiscated the shoes of an underling. I would have then had a souvenir of the incident, and there would have been a constant mystery of why when Gordon left one of them left in just socks. It would have added to the air of mystery around the man - to go with the orange blob and farmy-farm. It would have been a secret I kept with me to my grave, denying forever that I was a pair of smart man's shoes to the richer.

Cost of staying near the top.

Korea unveils $19 bil. support package for chip industry
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=375236
.."Countries' fates now depend on who can first produce cutting-edge semiconductors with highly advanced information processing capabilities. Korea should provide robust support for the semiconductor industry to ensure that we do not fall behind other rival countries in semiconductor development," the president said during the meeting...


Not without benefits, though.

Korean economy expected to grow 2.5% this year on chip export rebound: BOK
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=375241

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.

I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.

Yes, the biggest criticism of him is that he isn't terribly good at politics. Which strangley isn't the worst you can say of a PM.
And he is arguably better at politics than Liz Truss, who having won the leadership election appeared to forget the need to engage in politics at all, and brought it all crashing down on top of her.

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

appears not to be corrupt

He can afford not to be, although some people have asked questions about how many contracts Infosys have 'won' while he has been PM

And an awful lot of pandemic money disappeared into the void while he was chancellor.

Given the catastrophic nature of the pandemic, economically and socially, I think it was entirely appropriate to suspend normal procurement rules.

Even if we accept a little bit of profiteering and waste might have gone on the alternative of being unprepared or ill-equipped due to due process was far far worse.

You can well imagine the meetings where “Does anyone know anyone who knows anyone who can get this stuff at any price?” was said.

It’s fair to go after those who got paid and didn’t deliver though, but not those who did what they were asked at the price that was agreed. Ministers wouldn’t have been approving individual procurement decisions.

state_go_away said:

Quincel said:

Ghedebrav said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

state_go_away said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans

https://x.com/BylineTimes/status/1793603212630769816

Could they have started this campaign worse?

Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?

Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.

This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps

Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).

Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.

His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.

and then there was Prescott smacking the voter

I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott

Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.

Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation.
I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable.
But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.

But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.

I've always felt that Prescott became more popular after lamping that bloke. And Tony Blair's "John is John" was well judged.

The interesting thing about that incident is that it happened before the internet really had changed the way videos spread. So Blair/Campbell had to decide how to play it initially based solely on Prescott's/his team's telling of the story and without having seen the footage. A lot of trust shown that day.

The biggest campaign mistake ever though remains --the Sheffield rally (or at least Kinnocks behaving like a lout in it) .It lost the election probably

IIRC that was a myth - Kinnock knew he was in trouble before he went on stage.

kjh said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.

I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.

I think that is a very good analysis. If the result is at the very worst end of expectations for the Tories, history won't be kind to him and that will be unfair, because most, if not nearly all the blame, lies elsewhere.

Though thus far Sunak appears to have very limited campaigning or presentational skills. Strangely yesterday he kept reminding me of Ed Miliband - not a bad bloke at all, decent, but not a leader, not interesting, no wit or improvisation skills (compare with how Boris would get on with being rained on) and no good at media.

In modern politics that's a fail. It isn't fair, but them's the breaks.

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

appears not to be corrupt

He can afford not to be, although some people have asked questions about how many contracts Infosys have 'won' while he has been PM

And an awful lot of pandemic money disappeared into the void while he was chancellor.

Given the catastrophic nature of the pandemic, economically and socially, I think it was entirely appropriate to suspend normal procurement rules.

Even if we accept a little bit of profiteering and waste might have gone on the alternative of being unprepared or ill-equipped due to due process was far far worse.

It was the likely outright fraud, and the paucity of recovery efforts which are the issue.

A "little bit of profiteering and waste" would have been to be expected, and a massive improvement on what actually happened.

rcs1000 said:

An equally interesting bet is whether the Conservatives vote count will exceed that in 1945.

I'm not sure they will exceed what Labour got in 1935.

wooliedyed said:

Selebian said:

CarlottaVance said:

No signs of @RosieDuffield1 at the Labour election launch in Kent.

A lot of hopeful faces; but none of the current Kent Labour MP's.....

Starmer tells me if Kent wants change, then he is the only option for them!

https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1793583173101830275

What sort of leader kicks of a GE campaign without his only MP in that county?

A coward, that sort, one who won’t stand up to the misogynists in his party.

I thought Starmer had two MPs in Kent nowadays?

The other one logged out of politics yesterday with a two line tweet. 'Cheers. I'm not standing again' basically

Still an MP though, until the dissolution of parliament, right?

I'm going for the pedantic/technical correctness here

Cookie said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.

I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.

Yes, the biggest criticism of him is that he isn't terribly good at politics. Which strangley isn't the worst you can say of a PM.
And he is arguably better at politics than Liz Truss, who having won the leadership election appeared to forget the need to engage in politics at all, and brought it all crashing down on top of her.

I would judge Sunak more harshly.

The evidence provided by the decision to axe HS2 is that he was panicking about his poor opinion poll position, and casting about for populist remedies. And so not only did he do something for populist reasons, rather than because he thought it was the best policy, but it also failed to win him any support, so it was pointless.

There are a few things Sunak might have done better if his response to poor polling had been calmer. And then he might have closed the polling gap as Major did, a little.

Selebian said:

wooliedyed said:

Selebian said:

CarlottaVance said:

No signs of @RosieDuffield1 at the Labour election launch in Kent.

A lot of hopeful faces; but none of the current Kent Labour MP's.....

Starmer tells me if Kent wants change, then he is the only option for them!

https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1793583173101830275

What sort of leader kicks of a GE campaign without his only MP in that county?

A coward, that sort, one who won’t stand up to the misogynists in his party.

I thought Starmer had two MPs in Kent nowadays?

The other one logged out of politics yesterday with a two line tweet. 'Cheers. I'm not standing again' basically

Still an MP though, until the dissolution of parliament, right?

I'm going for the pedantic/technical correctness here

Ah yes indeed. Full pedant marks!

Flatlander said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.

I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.

It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.

What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.

If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.

No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.

Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.

I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.

It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.

Congratulations to those who called it right.

Technically, Rishi kept his word, as everything after 1 July is the second half of the year. I still wonder whether July might have been in mind much earlier than we imagine.

/Sad pedant mode on/

Because Feb is short, the 1st & 2nd of July are not in the second half of the year.

4th July is only just in the second half thanks to it being a leap year.

Me: Looks furtively around to see whether anyone has noticed that all the 'mid-year' estimates of things produced by me in various publications* are based on 1 July

*I was just testing peer review, obviously. It failed.

state_go_away said:

Flatlander said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.

I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.

It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.

What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.

If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.

No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.

Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.

I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.

It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.

Congratulations to those who called it right.

Technically, Rishi kept his word, as everything after 1 July is the second half of the year. I still wonder whether July might have been in mind much earlier than we imagine.

/Sad pedant mode on/

Because Feb is short, 1st July is not in the second half of the year.

4th July is only just in the second half thanks to it being a leap year.

imagine if not a leap year and Sunak would then be accused of misleading parliament.

I don't think he would as:

a) 7th month is close enough for 99% of people not to be pedants.
b) Nobody really gives a shit.
c) Everyone only cares about the election once its called.
d) Parliament is closed soon anyway.

Scott_xP said:

@paulwaugh

After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today:
- asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024]
- had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs

It's only Day 2.

I wonder if Paul Waugh will be selected for Labour for Rochdale this time having just missed out last time.

Scott_xP said:

@paulwaugh

After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today:
- asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024]
- had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs

It's only Day 2.

Plankety-plank.

MoonRabbit said:

GIN1138 said:

Well if this is right, Rishi has outmaneuvered and possibly destroyed Nigel Farage once and and for all... If so, at least he now had a legacy.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13451909/How-Rishis-snap-election-gambit-killed-Nigel-Farages-MP-ambitions-Brexit-champion-ready-run-Commons-PMs-shock-July-4-announcement-decided-not-win-seat-just-six-weeks.html

Nope. Farage wants to come home to the Conservative Party, the next leader will let him in, so he was never going to rock the boat right now.

No he does not.

Farage is only interested in Farage.

He wants to make money shilling for Fox and friends in the States, not piss about failing to get elected to Parliament.

LostPassword said:

Cookie said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?

This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.

I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.

The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.

I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.

He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.

Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.

I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.

Yes, the biggest criticism of him is that he isn't terribly good at politics. Which strangley isn't the worst you can say of a PM.
And he is arguably better at politics than Liz Truss, who having won the leadership election appeared to forget the need to engage in politics at all, and brought it all crashing down on top of her.

I would judge Sunak more harshly.

The evidence provided by the decision to axe HS2 is that he was panicking about his poor opinion poll position, and casting about for populist remedies. And so not only did he do something for populist reasons, rather than because he thought it was the best policy, but it also failed to win him any support, so it was pointless.

There are a few things Sunak might have done better if his response to poor polling had been calmer. And then he might have closed the polling gap as Major did, a little.

Ditto Rwanda. No asylo is ever going to end up there now. So much money, time and energy wasted on a populist stunt that amounted to nothing.

Curious why people are making a big deal about the fact that Sunak deliberately got softball questions today.

All parties have always done this. Starmer will do this too. Always have, always will.

Sunak was actually competent with something is the shocker, not that he did it.

Scott_xP said:

@paulwaugh

After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today:
- asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024]
- had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs

It's only Day 2.

Perhaps the message yesterday to stock up on essentials was intended to ensure popcorn supplies are adequate...

wooliedyed said:

Selebian said:

wooliedyed said:

Selebian said:

CarlottaVance said:

No signs of @RosieDuffield1 at the Labour election launch in Kent.

A lot of hopeful faces; but none of the current Kent Labour MP's.....

Starmer tells me if Kent wants change, then he is the only option for them!

https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1793583173101830275

What sort of leader kicks of a GE campaign without his only MP in that county?

A coward, that sort, one who won’t stand up to the misogynists in his party.

I thought Starmer had two MPs in Kent nowadays?

The other one logged out of politics yesterday with a two line tweet. 'Cheers. I'm not standing again' basically

Still an MP though, until the dissolution of parliament, right?

I'm going for the pedantic/technical correctness here

Ah yes indeed. Full pedant marks!

Don't worry, someone will be along to out-pedant me shortly, explaining that due to the unrepealed Protection of Canterbury from Association with St George Cross Flags in Rochester and Strood Act of 1789, Canterbury is not really in Kent due to being too posh.

@alexwickham
NEW: Tory strategy comes into view

— plan is to make Rwanda the key dividing line, win back Reform votes and close gap with Labour

— senior Tory: ‘the choice at this election is flights off with the Conservatives or flights stopped with Keir Starmer’

@robfordmancs

Believing Reform voters, who don't like or trust Sunak, and are hopping mad over immigration, will be won back by "we failed to deliver on Rwanda before the election but trust us we'll do better next time" is a pretty fragile reed bearing a lot of electoral load

MoonRabbit said:

GIN1138 said:

Well if this is right, Rishi has outmaneuvered and possibly destroyed Nigel Farage once and and for all... If so, at least he now had a legacy.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13451909/How-Rishis-snap-election-gambit-killed-Nigel-Farages-MP-ambitions-Brexit-champion-ready-run-Commons-PMs-shock-July-4-announcement-decided-not-win-seat-just-six-weeks.html

Nope. Farage wants to come home to the Conservative Party, the next leader will let him in, so he was never going to rock the boat right now.

If he'd run as an independent in somewhere like one of the Barnsley constituencies he might have been able to bring a seat with him as payment.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bids for election debates are being made by broadcasters individually rather than collectively, with a scramble behind the scenes likely in the coming days as they seek confirmations.

Nick Robinson, the BBC’s former political editor and host of the Today programme on Radio Four, is also due to hold interviews with constantly interrupt all the party leaders, if they agree to do so.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/23/tories-keir-starmer-record-six-tv-debates-general-election/

Let’s hope the major broadcasters lose out to a bunch of podcasters - Triggernometry anyone, sitting them both down for hours outside the broadcast rules?

Given the change in the media landscape since the last election, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see parties organise debates between themselves under agreed rules, and leave the broadcasters with the choice to accept the stream or not.

Scott_xP said:

@alexwickham
NEW: Tory strategy comes into view

— plan is to make Rwanda the key dividing line, win back Reform votes and close gap with Labour

— senior Tory: ‘the choice at this election is flights off with the Conservatives or flights stopped with Keir Starmer’

@robfordmancs

Believing Reform voters, who don't like or trust Sunak, and are hopping mad over immigration, will be won back by "we failed to deliver on Rwanda before the election but trust us we'll do better next time" is a pretty fragile reed bearing a lot of electoral load

"Vote for us and the Rwanda flights will take off on 5 July. Promise." Do they really think this policy will win them the election?

BartholomewRoberts said:

Curious why people are making a big deal about the fact that Sunak deliberately got softball questions today.

All parties have always done this. Starmer will do this too. Always have, always will.

Sunak was actually competent with something is the shocker, not that he did it.

I'd say that the mood is pretty solidly anti-Sunak, here, among political commentators, and among the public at large.

Everything he does will be judged through that prism.

BartholomewRoberts said:

MoonRabbit said:

GIN1138 said:

Well if this is right, Rishi has outmaneuvered and possibly destroyed Nigel Farage once and and for all... If so, at least he now had a legacy.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13451909/How-Rishis-snap-election-gambit-killed-Nigel-Farages-MP-ambitions-Brexit-champion-ready-run-Commons-PMs-shock-July-4-announcement-decided-not-win-seat-just-six-weeks.html

Nope. Farage wants to come home to the Conservative Party, the next leader will let him in, so he was never going to rock the boat right now.

No he does not.

Farage is only interested in Farage.

He wants to make money shilling for Fox and friends in the States, not piss about failing to get elected to Parliament.

Yes he does. He is on his way to becoming a Conservative Member. That’s what he wants. Not that you are wrong either, as he can do both. He was never going to ruin his chance of that at this election, the people who actually thought that were wrong.

You don’t go to Con Clubs very often. I was in one yesterday lunchtime playing snooker. Farage can walk into any Con Club in the country and get an instant standing ovation from everyone.

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

@paulwaugh

After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today:
- asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024]
- had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs

It's only Day 2.

Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.

Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)



*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.

Sunak supports Southampton.

I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.

I'm wondering if Old Lady Brady has had to call in The Count from Sesame Street to help tot up those letters yet?

Foxy said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

@paulwaugh

After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today:
- asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024]
- had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs

It's only Day 2.

Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.

Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)



*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.

Sunak supports Southampton.

I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.

Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

state_go_away said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans

https://x.com/BylineTimes/status/1793603212630769816

Could they have started this campaign worse?

Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?

Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.

This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps

Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).

Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.

His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.

and then there was Prescott smacking the voter

I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott

Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.

Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation.
I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable.
But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.

But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.

To me GB's private irritation with Mrs Duffy showed him as instinctively anti-xenophobic.

Yes, instinctively as in seeing racism everywhere whether it's there or not - the classic cry of 'racist' at anyone who asks an awkward question. Which was neither more nor less than I expected of him.

If I'd have been Mrs. Duffy I would have offered the brief explanation to the waiting press in exchange for Gordon's shoes. He would have then left unshod - or, more probably, confiscated the shoes of an underling. I would have then had a souvenir of the incident, and there would have been a constant mystery of why when Gordon left one of them left in just socks. It would have added to the air of mystery around the man - to go with the orange blob and farmy-farm. It would have been a secret I kept with me to my grave, denying forever that I was a pair of smart man's shoes to the richer.

That's quite a creative revenge, I must say. With the shoes.

But on the substantive point, no, I don't mean it like that. You're over-analysing slightly. What I mean is if you're going to be triggered by things (even if wrongly) xenophobia is an ok one to have on your list - it shows your head and heart is in the right place. Which is what the incident did (for me) viz a vis Gordon Brown.

It was in private remember. He was stressed out and letting his hair down. She struck him as bigoted and he said so (just mumbling to himself really). Imagine if he'd been making fun of her clothes or her accent or something supercilious and snotty like that. That really would have showed him in a bad light. This didn't. Under stress, in private, he got irritated by what he perceived as xenophobic chat from a member of the public.

Did he read Mrs Duffy wrong? Maybe. I genuinely can't say because I wasn't there and I don't know the lady. She did vote for Brexit 6 years later, but so what. 17m did that. It indicates something but it proves nothing. Point is, Gordon sensed some xenophobia, it irritated him, and he showed this later in private having behaved with the utmost courtesy and professionalism in the face-to-face encounter. I was impressed.

state_go_away said:

I see Skybet are running scared by closing down the bet recommended in the header already - shows the bookies take note of this site .The site comes alive for betting at GE and hopefully most posts will be betting related or giving info to be used for bets

They'll have algos and triggers whenever there's a flurry of bets on anything that skews the book. They probably took a few dozen bets (maybe low three figures) off the back of this thread.

I don't think they directly monitor this site, but maybe they check it out whenever one of their political bets goes haywire to see why.

I expect Shadsy is much more proactive.