Turns out the dangerous cycling law has been dropped.
And the Telegraph have issued a correction for the nonsense 52mph.
Shame. Could've done with tracking down the 52mph cyclist with Paris Olympics around the corner.
Funny, but reflective of a touchingly out-of-date view of plod. I wouldn't trust the police to be able to track him down before the LA Olympics.
He will be on to his zimmer frame by the time they find him (or her). Telegraph headline in a few decades 'Crack down on zimmer frame users doing 52mph'.
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.
It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
Er...2017?
Er, what?
I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.
If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.
She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.
Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.
"Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."
Yup.
In a nutshell.
+1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
Worth noting that this issue is still unresolved decades after all the promises; and that Labour, SFAICS, plan to say nothing except platitudes on the subject before the election. They never mention it. The current situation is toxic, as is all the alternatives. Therefore expect the media, rightly, to make it an issue.
On current polling the Tories have absolutely no downside. Labour have no upside, and one or two 'bigotgate or death tax or Labour support Hamas' style issues could cause them trouble.
McFadden this morning had two places he specially didn't want to go: social care and Diane Abbott.
What did he say on social care?
They cannot even begin to fix the NHS without sorting out the utter disgrace that is social care system.
Basically: don't know, wait and see, move on. (The Tories will take a similar view).
A few hours into the election campaign and a big story already.
Rishi Sunak has told both Breakfast and the Today programme that a flight will not take off for Rwanda before the election.
Instead, he said, a flight would take off in July if - and only if - the Conservatives won the general election.
Perhaps that was one of the reasons for calling a summer election. Had the election been later, the Rwanda scheme would have had several months to prove either its success or failure.
It is also worth saying that this means that after two years, three prime ministers and four home secretaries, all of whom have made this their flagship immigration measure… there’s a decent chance a flight might never take off for Rwanda after all.
Ironically, Rishi was an early sceptic on Rwanda, but I doubt this was a factor in election timing.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
No, it's due to the fact they were struggling to find and vet candidates- and now will have hardly any time - so either (a) won't be able to field a full slate or (b) some those who they do select in panic will blow-up mid campaign.
Both help the Tories. As does the fact Farage hasn't had time to get involved.
Where are the other parties- especially the big two- at with selection?
(Not particularly a counterpoint, but curious.)
Quite a few gaps to fill - including some late announced retirements, but mainly weaker seats.
But that's a bit different from the RefUK point. Other parties have approved candidates who have been vetted but don't yet have seats (the vetting is far from perfect, but they've not just walked in and said, "Hello - I'd like to be a Tory candidate"). They also have people like senior councillors who haven't been through the approval process but have managed to get through 25 years without a disastrous gaffe.
RefUK are extremely prone to being seen as a vehicle for individuals who are quite exotic "characters", and have been banned from the local Conservative Club for saying the sort of things that even the old buffers in there find rather offensive ("Marjorie's grandson is a gay, and she was quite upset...") They do walk in off the street, they haven't had the edges smoothed off by decades on the Audit Committee, and they will suddenly claim that Goebbels' problem was he was a bit wet. So not having sufficient approved candidates is a problem - remember, approval and selection are different things.
That's not to say there won't be stories about fruity candidates from other parties in the next few weeks - I mean, there are hundreds of candidates, we've just had Rochdale, and a Tory candidate will assuredly post something insane on Twitter. But RefUK are much more vulnerable to it.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Donations have reportedly dried up for Reform, they're running on loans from Tice, so they don't have the funds to campaign effectively in the number of seats they threatened. The money will return if the Conservatives look like becoming more moderate to drag them to the right. If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
The party to watch for donations and funds is the SNP. Their last accounts showed the party to be broke (or stronger than ever if you prefer the Sturgeon analysis). Things seem to have got worse since then and the never ending shadow of Branchform does not exactly help.
Swinney is naturally tetchy and moany but some of his unhappiness yesterday must come from the challenge of running a general election with no funds. The risk is that this makes the result even worse which in turn will significantly reduce a major source of revenue for the party from MPs and their expenses claims.
Oh well.
Startling moment on @BBCRadioScot this morning as John Swinney appears to acknowledge the SNP has no money for an election campaign, and is going to have to find the money in the next 6 weeks.
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.
It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
Er...2017?
Er, what?
I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.
If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.
She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.
Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.
"Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."
Yup.
In a nutshell.
+1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
Worth noting that this issue is still unresolved decades after all the promises; and that Labour, SFAICS, plan to say nothing except platitudes on the subject before the election. They never mention it. The current situation is toxic, as is all the alternatives. Therefore expect the media, rightly, to make it an issue.
On current polling the Tories have absolutely no downside. Labour have no upside, and one or two 'bigotgate or death tax or Labour support Hamas' style issues could cause them trouble.
McFadden this morning had two places he specially didn't want to go: social care and Diane Abbott.
What did he say on social care?
They cannot even begin to fix the NHS without sorting out the utter disgrace that is social care system.
Which requires money.
And the only place to find it is from property taxes.
Are Starmer and Reeves willing to take the political hit ?
If they're going to then they need to do it straight away.
Well, they are not going to go there before the election are they? There are two elections in their minds: 1992 and 2017. In 2017 the Tories had a disaster ('another win like that and we are finished') beginning with one single, far from insane, policy - the death tax.
Do we know whether it's right-wing or left-wing Tory MPs who think the idea of an election on 4th July is a bad idea?
I’m not sure either side is ecstatic, the ones throwing a wobbly will be the Mad Nad types and the continuity Trussites.
The ones throwing a wobbly are the ones who are going to lose, so most of them...
Nah most parliamentary politicians are relatively phlegmatic, it will be the most entitled ones who are hopping mad those who think they deserve an extra 6 months salary. A decent proportion will be resigned to what fate and FPTP has in store.
Come on, Big Nige Farage, stand for Reform! The Snappy Lec is already RIDIC, let’s make it Pokkaliptik
He wont stand, he wants a gig with the Donald
Both would have to get elected for that to be an issue, so an unlikely combination. If it did happen I think that would be a problem that Nigel would relish having to decide upon.
We haven’t made as much progress on nhs waiting lists as I would have liked says Sunak, admitting to Today prog this is disappointing. He is literally making Labou’s case for them, which is that he’s campaigning on a record of failure
Just maybe his government should have tried harder to settle the junior doctors dispute. Too late now.
Tut, no credit where it is due, for the SNP?
They only did it to look different from yon Westminster.
To be fair, if true that would probably have been a pretty reliable shorthand for choosing policies over the past decade or so.
A lesson that Labour, short of Sir Keir ripping his mask off on 5th July to reveal a slavering red in tooth and claw proggy Soc, seem to be on the brink of forgetting.
The next Holyrood election will be a lot more interesting than PB ****** experts seem to think.
Yep. I said a while ago that Scotland needs a bracing few years with a goodly number of SLab mps just to clarify exactly what 'change' they're bringing. If the new member for Rutherglen & Hamilton West is anything to go by it won't be pretty but will be edifying.
Do we know whether it's right-wing or left-wing Tory MPs who think the idea of an election on 4th July is a bad idea?
I'd plump for those with a majority under 15k who haven't already found themselves a new gig
Indeed. Having a thin CV, being of an age where it's a bit late for a career change, and sitting on an insufficient majority isn't really a left/right issue!
The comedy result will be Farage on Telly ripping the Tories to bits, Tories feeling smug because the Nigel isn't openly campaigning, and RefUK get a couple of million votes regardless.
Come on, Big Nige Farage, stand for Reform! The Snappy Lec is already RIDIC, let’s make it Pokkaliptik
He wont stand, he wants a gig with the Donald
Both would have to get elected for that to be an issue, so an unlikely combination. If it did happen I think that would be a problem that Nigel would relish having to decide upon.
The comedy result will be Farage on Telly ripping the Tories to bits, Tories feeling smug because the Nigel isn't openly campaigning, and RefUK get a couple of million votes regardless.
Nigel will be on GBNews every night talking about the election - that I suspect is going to do way more harm than him standing for election,..
Come on, Big Nige Farage, stand for Reform! The Snappy Lec is already RIDIC, let’s make it Pokkaliptik
He wont stand, he wants a gig with the Donald
Both would have to get elected for that to be an issue, so an unlikely combination. If it did happen I think that would be a problem that Nigel would relish having to decide upon.
Only one - Trump - needs to get elected for Farage to get on the payroll. Plenty of goodies a President (and a wealthy one at that) can hand out to unelected persons.
We haven’t made as much progress on nhs waiting lists as I would have liked says Sunak, admitting to Today prog this is disappointing. He is literally making Labou’s case for them, which is that he’s campaigning on a record of failure
Just maybe his government should have tried harder to settle the junior doctors dispute. Too late now.
Tut, no credit where it is due, for the SNP?
They only did it to look different from yon Westminster.
To be fair, if true that would probably have been a pretty reliable shorthand for choosing policies over the past decade or so.
A lesson that Labour, short of Sir Keir ripping his mask off on 5th July to reveal a slavering red in tooth and claw proggy Soc, seem to be on the brink of forgetting.
The next Holyrood election will be a lot more interesting than PB ****** experts seem to think.
Yep. I said a while ago that Scotland needs a bracing few years with a goodly number of SLab mps just to clarify exactly what 'change' they're bringing. If the new member for Rutherglen & Hamilton West is anything to go by it won't be pretty but will be edifying.
The one who got in by advocating SNP policies such as abolishing the 2-bairn benefit cap? Quite.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Donations have reportedly dried up for Reform, they're running on loans from Tice, so they don't have the funds to campaign effectively in the number of seats they threatened. The money will return if the Conservatives look like becoming more moderate to drag them to the right. If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
The party to watch for donations and funds is the SNP. Their last accounts showed the party to be broke (or stronger than ever if you prefer the Sturgeon analysis). Things seem to have got worse since then and the never ending shadow of Branchform does not exactly help.
Swinney is naturally tetchy and moany but some of his unhappiness yesterday must come from the challenge of running a general election with no funds. The risk is that this makes the result even worse which in turn will significantly reduce a major source of revenue for the party from MPs and their expenses claims.
Oh well.
Startling moment on @BBCRadioScot this morning as John Swinney appears to acknowledge the SNP has no money for an election campaign, and is going to have to find the money in the next 6 weeks.
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.
It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
Er...2017?
Er, what?
I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.
If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.
She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.
Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.
"Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."
Yup.
In a nutshell.
+1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
Worth noting that this issue is still unresolved decades after all the promises; and that Labour, SFAICS, plan to say nothing except platitudes on the subject before the election. They never mention it. The current situation is toxic, as is all the alternatives. Therefore expect the media, rightly, to make it an issue.
On current polling the Tories have absolutely no downside. Labour have no upside, and one or two 'bigotgate or death tax or Labour support Hamas' style issues could cause them trouble.
McFadden this morning had two places he specially didn't want to go: social care and Diane Abbott.
What did he say on social care?
They cannot even begin to fix the NHS without sorting out the utter disgrace that is social care system.
Which requires money.
And the only place to find it is from property taxes.
Are Starmer and Reeves willing to take the political hit ?
If they're going to then they need to do it straight away.
Well, they are not going to go there before the election are they? There are two elections in their minds: 1992 and 2017. In 2017 the Tories had a disaster ('another win like that and we are finished') beginning with one single, far from insane, policy - the death tax.
It was the 'dementia tax'.
But you highlight the problem for Starmer and Reeves.
Promise not to introduce new property taxes, then immediately do so and they take a big political hit and kill any chance of a honeymoon for the new government.
Wait a year or more and it becomes harder to blame the previous government and gives them less time for the reforms to work.
The comedy result will be Farage on Telly ripping the Tories to bits, Tories feeling smug because the Nigel isn't openly campaigning, and RefUK get a couple of million votes regardless.
Nigel will be on GBNews every night talking about the election - that I suspect is going to do way more harm than him standing for election,..
No it won't as nobody watches it. Farage regularly getting a quick clip on the main channels of him supping pints with locals at the Dog & Duck in Stoke or whatever is much more valuable than having hours of him on GBeebies.
The comedy result will be Farage on Telly ripping the Tories to bits, Tories feeling smug because the Nigel isn't openly campaigning, and RefUK get a couple of million votes regardless.
Nigel will be on GBNews every night talking about the election - that I suspect is going to do way more harm than him standing for election,..
He is preaching to seminarians and they’ve already taken the vows…
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Donations have reportedly dried up for Reform, they're running on loans from Tice, so they don't have the funds to campaign effectively in the number of seats they threatened. The money will return if the Conservatives look like becoming more moderate to drag them to the right. If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
The party to watch for donations and funds is the SNP. Their last accounts showed the party to be broke (or stronger than ever if you prefer the Sturgeon analysis). Things seem to have got worse since then and the never ending shadow of Branchform does not exactly help.
Swinney is naturally tetchy and moany but some of his unhappiness yesterday must come from the challenge of running a general election with no funds. The risk is that this makes the result even worse which in turn will significantly reduce a major source of revenue for the party from MPs and their expenses claims.
Oh well.
Startling moment on @BBCRadioScot this morning as John Swinney appears to acknowledge the SNP has no money for an election campaign, and is going to have to find the money in the next 6 weeks.
If Sunak can turn the election into a referendum on whether to fly asylum seekers to Rwanda, then the election may develop not necessarily to Labour's advantage.
The comedy result will be Farage on Telly ripping the Tories to bits, Tories feeling smug because the Nigel isn't openly campaigning, and RefUK get a couple of million votes regardless.
Nigel will be on GBNews every night talking about the election - that I suspect is going to do way more harm than him standing for election,..
He is preaching to seminarians and they’ve already taken the vows…
Reading the comments on the GB News YouTube channel I get the feeling quite a lot of the true disciples of Farage are becoming tired of him and this latest statement won't endear him any further that's for sure...
Here are my GE guesstimates, for their (very small) worth:
Lab 44 Con 30 LD 12 Ref 7 GRN 5
Lab maj 80-120.
If only there was a website where I could find out how to make money off these projections.
Actually it's probably for the best that I haven't found one yet.
RefUK and Green votes are probably a function of how many seats they stand in. A lot of their erstwhile supporters will be faced with a choice between voting for someone else or staying at home. And do not forget to factor in the SNP (sorry, Plaid, your cause is noble) because figures are quoted on a GB-wide basis.
Come on, Big Nige Farage, stand for Reform! The Snappy Lec is already RIDIC, let’s make it Pokkaliptik
He wont stand, he wants a gig with the Donald
Both would have to get elected for that to be an issue, so an unlikely combination. If it did happen I think that would be a problem that Nigel would relish having to decide upon.
Only one - Trump - needs to get elected for Farage to get on the payroll. Plenty of goodies a President (and a wealthy one at that) can hand out to unelected persons.
Not what I meant. I meant it was only an issue for Farage if he got elected. If he didn't get elected then the only barrier was Trump not getting elected. As Farage was very unlikely to get elected there wasn't any issue in him standing and still getting on Trump's payroll. Even less of an issue now Farage is not standing, but I doubt this was his reason for not standing at the GE. It was a problem that was unlikely to arise and if it did it was a wonderful problem for Farage to have.
Meanwhile from the local Facebook group, copied verbatim:
"for 2 days theyve been going on about the the priminster wiv no umbrella jesus it doesnt mater find something else to talk about he spoke. tv should stop wingeing on theres more important things going on in the world....."
Kay Burley asking Pat Mcfadden when will labour recognise Palestine as an independent state to placate the Muslim vote, he simply was unwilling to give a definitive answer and said there were many other issues to discuss
Sounds perfectly sensible to me. There are hundreds, if not thousands, more important things for the UK government to focus on. And Palestine is a fast changing volatile situation so a definitive answer is silly unless it is recognition now. If some voters can't handle that so be it, but I am glad that is Labours position, and it gives me a little confidence Starmer has a reasonable grasp of priorities and will have a pragmatic approach.
Come on, Big Nige Farage, stand for Reform! The Snappy Lec is already RIDIC, let’s make it Pokkaliptik
He wont stand, he wants a gig with the Donald
Both would have to get elected for that to be an issue, so an unlikely combination. If it did happen I think that would be a problem that Nigel would relish having to decide upon.
Only one - Trump - needs to get elected for Farage to get on the payroll. Plenty of goodies a President (and a wealthy one at that) can hand out to unelected persons.
Not what I meant. I meant it was only an issue for Farage if he got elected. If he didn't get elected then the only barrier was Trump not getting elected. As Farage was very unlikely to get elected there wasn't any issue in him standing and still getting on Trump's payroll. Even less of an issue now Farage is not standing, but I doubt this was his reason for not standing at the GE. It was a problem that was unlikely to arise and if it did it was a wonderful problem for Farage to have.
If Farage were to have stood in this election then he wouldn't have been able to be in the US for the first Presidential debate in June.
The comedy result will be Farage on Telly ripping the Tories to bits, Tories feeling smug because the Nigel isn't openly campaigning, and RefUK get a couple of million votes regardless.
Nigel will be on GBNews every night talking about the election - that I suspect is going to do way more harm than him standing for election,..
No it won't as nobody watches it. Farage regularly getting a quick clip on the main channels of him supping pints with locals at the Dog & Duck in Stoke or whatever is much more valuable than having hours of him on GBeebies.
He gets regularly gets more viewers now than any news channel at that time slot. Although not exactly floating voters, they will overwhelming be choosing between Reform and Tories. GBNews also get a shocking number of views on social media, 1.4 billion views on YouTube (their strategy is flood it with content & the odd video pops off).
Come on, Big Nige Farage, stand for Reform! The Snappy Lec is already RIDIC, let’s make it Pokkaliptik
He wont stand, he wants a gig with the Donald
Both would have to get elected for that to be an issue, so an unlikely combination. If it did happen I think that would be a problem that Nigel would relish having to decide upon.
Only one - Trump - needs to get elected for Farage to get on the payroll. Plenty of goodies a President (and a wealthy one at that) can hand out to unelected persons.
Not what I meant. I meant it was only an issue for Farage if he got elected. If he didn't get elected then the only barrier was Trump not getting elected. As Farage was very unlikely to get elected there wasn't any issue in him standing and still getting on Trump's payroll. Even less of an issue now Farage is not standing, but I doubt this was his reason for not standing at the GE. It was a problem that was unlikely to arise and if it did it was a wonderful problem for Farage to have.
What is the rule that stops an MP getting paid by Trump or doing work for him? I thought they just had to declare it and couldn't be a parliamentary strategist, adviser or consultant or do paid advocacy.
If Sunak can turn the election into a referendum on whether to fly asylum seekers to Rwanda, then the election may develop not necessarily to Labour's advantage.
If flights had taken off and there was some deterrent effect that would have been an issue for Labour . As it is not a single flight has taken off so we’ll never know and Labour don’t have to answer awkward questions on that front .
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Meanwhile from the local Facebook group, copied verbatim:
"for 2 days theyve been going on about the the priminster wiv no umbrella jesus it doesnt mater find something else to talk about he spoke. tv should stop wingeing on theres more important things going on in the world....."
From mine, under a report of XL Bullies savaging a local woman:
"My XL is huge he weighs over 50kg no bother is the biggest softy, brought up with my kids"
The comedy result will be Farage on Telly ripping the Tories to bits, Tories feeling smug because the Nigel isn't openly campaigning, and RefUK get a couple of million votes regardless.
Nigel will be on GBNews every night talking about the election - that I suspect is going to do way more harm than him standing for election,..
No it won't as nobody watches it. Farage regularly getting a quick clip on the main channels of him supping pints with locals at the Dog & Duck in Stoke or whatever is much more valuable than having hours of him on GBeebies.
Nobody watches GB News. But their social media clips are *massive*...
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
"Important though the general election is, the contest in the United States of America on November 5 has huge earning potential global significance"
This is the guy who was desperate to restore British sovereignty, and now can't even be bothered standing in a British election. What a pillock.
Well, if after we left the EU he'd said, "Ok, that's it. Job done. I now retire for a quiet life" , then fair enough.
But since 2020 he's been stirring up trouble and continuing to campaign and attack his political opponents (mostly the Tories) so now when the moment of truth comes and he drops out of standing for election, everything he's done since 2020 looks completely disingenuous.
But then, this is Farage we're talking about, so of course it looks disingenuous...
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Literally 1% of the population of the UK, arriving in a single year. This is the overwhelming Tory failure and this is why they need to DIE
I recall the heady days when people used to say that our population would now fall due to leaving the EU as nobody would want to come to Brexit Britain.
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Literally 1% of the population of the UK, arriving in a single year. This is the overwhelming Tory failure and this is why they need to DIE
And Starmer won't be reducing that anytime soon. We are going to need a hell of a lot of new towns being built.
Small boats of illegals is what 30k a year. Rwanda is a drop in the bucket even if it did work, but will get a stupud amount of coverage during the campaign.
As the #GE2024 campaign kicks off, our latest research finds Labour’s Shad Cab ‘big 4’ have higher net favourability scores than their government counterparts.
Starmer (+1) vs Sunak (-22) Reeves (+1) vs Hunt (-15) Cooper (-1) vs Cleverly (-11) Lammy (-6) vs Cameron (-13)
The deets in the migration stats are bleak as fuck
“The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023. “
220,000 dependants. People with no jobs that now require schools, health, welfare, housing, pensions, childcare
It’s a national policy of self destruction via immigration. And we wonder why our public services are under pressure, our rivers full of shit, house ownership a dream for many, and hospitals packed to bursting, with queues snaking round the food banks
If Sunak can turn the election into a referendum on whether to fly asylum seekers to Rwanda, then the election may develop not necessarily to Labour's advantage.
If flights had taken off and there was some deterrent effect that would have been an issue for Labour . As it is not a single flight has taken off so we’ll never know and Labour don’t have to answer awkward questions on that front .
I think quite a lot of voters like the idea of asylum seekers being flown a long way away, and if they see an election as a choice between doing so and not doing so, they will vote to do it.
The question is whether that becomes the issue uppermost in the mind of voters.
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
The reduction is mostly the first of the increased cohort of international students starting to return. Its (mostly) a technical change not a "real" one.
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Literally 1% of the population of the UK, arriving in a single year. This is the overwhelming Tory failure and this is why they need to DIE
And Starmer won't be reducing that anytime soon. We are going to need a hell of a lot of new towns being built.
Small boats of illegals is what 30k a year. Rwanda is a drop in the bucket even if it did work.
Now we need another Birmingham and everything in it every 18 months or so. We aren't even remotely close to building enough stuff to keep up with our population growth, nor is any political party serious about the issue. Forget new towns, we need new cities.
The deets in the migration stats are bleak as fuck
“The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023. “
220,000 dependants. People with no jobs that now require schools, health, welfare, housing, pensions, childcare
It’s a national policy of self destruction via immigration. And we wonder why our public services are under pressure, our rivers full of shit, house ownership a dream for many, and hospitals packed to bursting, with queues snaking round the food banks
Question for Tory leaning voters who are aggrieved by migration is this:
Do you continue to vote for the Tory party who endlessly fail?
Or do you switch to Reform who offer a route to get the Tory party back in line with the sensible policies which everyone supports?
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Literally 1% of the population of the UK, arriving in a single year. This is the overwhelming Tory failure and this is why they need to DIE
I recall the heady days when people used to say that our population would now fall due to leaving the EU as nobody would want to come to Brexit Britain.
And the heady days when Brexiteers said time to take in the talent of the world instead of being restricted by the racist EU.
Some folk seem to want to leave Brexit Britain, whether they're indigenes or not is unclear.
HOW have the Tories so COMPLETELY lost control of immigration???
Because you have to make hard decisions and current crop of politicians shit their load if they get any negative press. See complete u-turn on student policy. It was a poorly thougjt out policy to start with, because they didn't want to make hard decisions i.e. not all university post-grad courses are the same, then it got some push back and they ditched it.
The deets in the migration stats are bleak as fuck
“The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023. “
220,000 dependants. People with no jobs that now require schools, health, welfare, housing, pensions, childcare
It’s a national policy of self destruction via immigration. And we wonder why our public services are under pressure, our rivers full of shit, house ownership a dream for many, and hospitals packed to bursting, with queues snaking round the food banks
Yes it is all because of immigration and has nothing to do with the fact we have an incompetent government in hoc to special interests whose signature policy has made us poorer.
If - and it’s a big if - Sunak loses, surely that’s the end of Isaac Levido being perceived as some strategic genius. He got lucky in 2019 and nothing since has made me believe he actually knows what he’s doing.
The deets in the migration stats are bleak as fuck
“The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023. “
220,000 dependants. People with no jobs that now require schools, health, welfare, housing, pensions, childcare
It’s a national policy of self destruction via immigration. And we wonder why our public services are under pressure, our rivers full of shit, house ownership a dream for many, and hospitals packed to bursting, with queues snaking round the food banks
But think of the boost to GDP it will give.
The problem isn't so much immigrants but that they're not heavily paying for the opportunity to migrate here.
The "wally with no brolly" motif is, I think, instructive. Obviously referencing Steve McClaren's ill-fated time as England manager, if he'd stood there holding a brolly, it would have been "the wally with the brolly mk II". If he'd had someone hold one for him, he'd have looked like some imperial figure with a lackey. If he'd delayed to wait for the rain to stop, he'd have been "afraid of a bit of weather". A gazebo flapping around him would have been criticised (and probably noisy with the rain). And so on.
When you've lost the public, you can't win no matter what you do. That's where we're at with Sunak and the Conservatives in general.
The deets in the migration stats are bleak as fuck
“The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023. “
220,000 dependants. People with no jobs that now require schools, health, welfare, housing, pensions, childcare
It’s a national policy of self destruction via immigration. And we wonder why our public services are under pressure, our rivers full of shit, house ownership a dream for many, and hospitals packed to bursting, with queues snaking round the food banks
Yes it is all because of immigration and has nothing to do with the fact we have an incompetent government in hoc to special interests whose signature policy has made us poorer.
those special interest being universities, multi nationals and the Bank of England ?
HOW have the Tories so COMPLETELY lost control of immigration???
Because you have to make hard decisions and current crop of politicians shit their load if they get any negative press. See complete u-turn on student policy. It was a poorly thougjt out policy to start with, because they didn't want to make hard decisions i.e. not all university post-grad courses are the same, then it got some push back and they ditched it.
Exactly.
If you want to reduce immigration significantly you are going to have to do things that will be very unpalatable and get a lot of stick. There's no easy or nice way of doing it.
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Literally 1% of the population of the UK, arriving in a single year. This is the overwhelming Tory failure and this is why they need to DIE
And Starmer won't be reducing that anytime soon. We are going to need a hell of a lot of new towns being built.
Small boats of illegals is what 30k a year. Rwanda is a drop in the bucket even if it did work.
Now we need another Birmingham and everything in it every 18 months or so. We aren't even remotely close to building enough stuff to keep up with our population growth, nor is any political party serious about the issue. Forget new towns, we need new cities.
The immigration debate reminds of the EU headache. For years and years the elite strenuously ignored public concern about the loss of democratic control to Brussels. They ignored the cries of distress, they plunged on in the opposite direction, they promised change (referendum on Lisbon!) and delivered nothing. And on they went
So it is with immigration. No party will tackle it. We can’t even send one person to Rwanda. Despite spending £100ms. The elite is determined to keep the borders open OR it’s just too Farage-y to worry about and they don’t want to look UKIPy to their friends
The end result will be the same. We ended up with the ultimate rupture. Brexit. And same here: anger will grow until there is an almighty bust up and voters elect quasi fascists. Something completely avoidable if the problem had been addressed earlier
Come on, Big Nige Farage, stand for Reform! The Snappy Lec is already RIDIC, let’s make it Pokkaliptik
He wont stand, he wants a gig with the Donald
Both would have to get elected for that to be an issue, so an unlikely combination. If it did happen I think that would be a problem that Nigel would relish having to decide upon.
Only one - Trump - needs to get elected for Farage to get on the payroll. Plenty of goodies a President (and a wealthy one at that) can hand out to unelected persons.
Not what I meant. I meant it was only an issue for Farage if he got elected. If he didn't get elected then the only barrier was Trump not getting elected. As Farage was very unlikely to get elected there wasn't any issue in him standing and still getting on Trump's payroll. Even less of an issue now Farage is not standing, but I doubt this was his reason for not standing at the GE. It was a problem that was unlikely to arise and if it did it was a wonderful problem for Farage to have.
What is the rule that stops an MP getting paid by Trump or doing work for him? I thought they just had to declare it and couldn't be a parliamentary strategist, adviser or consultant or do paid advocacy.
Well there are jobs and there are jobs. If he got elected and took on a full time role in America that just might have been an issue.
Anyway it is all academic as he wasn't going to get elected and the probability of it happening has reduced significantly even further by deciding not to stand.
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months....
Literally 1% of the population of the UK, arriving in a single year. This is the overwhelming Tory failure and this is why they need to DIE
I recall the heady days when people used to say that our population would now fall due to leaving the EU as nobody would want to come to Brexit Britain.
And the heady days when Brexiteers said time to take in the talent of the world instead of being restricted by the racist EU.
Some folk seem to want to leave Brexit Britain, whether they're indigenes or not is unclear.
'emigration increased in 2023'
Well I’ve just applied for my Spanish digital nomad visa. Whether I ever use it I dunno. But good to have the option - emigration
The deets in the migration stats are bleak as fuck
“The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023. “
220,000 dependants. People with no jobs that now require schools, health, welfare, housing, pensions, childcare
It’s a national policy of self destruction via immigration. And we wonder why our public services are under pressure, our rivers full of shit, house ownership a dream for many, and hospitals packed to bursting, with queues snaking round the food banks
Yes it is all because of immigration and has nothing to do with the fact we have an incompetent government in hoc to special interests whose signature policy has made us poorer.
those special interest being universities, multi nationals and the Bank of England ?
Tories' inability to own their party's failures is a sight to behold.
I don't expect Reform to be a big factor, maybe 2 or 3% in the end
Three scenarios: 1) Farage on GBeebies every night abusing the Tories: Reform pick up a few million votes and no seats (the 2015 scenario) 2) Farage on GBeebies every night abusing the Tories: fed up Tory voters abstain (the 1997 scenario) 3) Farage on GBebies every night abusing the Tories: Reform voters "go home" to vote Tory
As I reported this morning - there were 2 camps of thinking in Tory HQ re election dates.
One, led by Isaac Levido, wanted to go long to let economic good news sink in & get those interest rate cuts in
One, led by James Forsyth, called for a snap
Forsyth (Rishi’s bestie) won
Rishi's problem has always been holding too little store by the views of those who understand how to win votes, and too much by those of the dinner party circuit.
This is one of the many reasons why activists aren't keen on him....
The deets in the migration stats are bleak as fuck
“The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023. “
220,000 dependants. People with no jobs that now require schools, health, welfare, housing, pensions, childcare
It’s a national policy of self destruction via immigration. And we wonder why our public services are under pressure, our rivers full of shit, house ownership a dream for many, and hospitals packed to bursting, with queues snaking round the food banks
Yes it is all because of immigration and has nothing to do with the fact we have an incompetent government in hoc to special interests whose signature policy has made us poorer.
those special interest being universities, multi nationals and the Bank of England ?
Tories' inability to own their party's failures is a sight to behold.
Right, so you dont know who these vested interest are ?
The "wally with no brolly" motif is, I think, instructive. Obviously referencing Steve McClaren's ill-fated time as England manager, if he'd stood there holding a brolly, it would have been "the wally with the brolly mk II". If he'd had someone hold one for him, he'd have looked like some imperial figure with a lackey. If he'd delayed to wait for the rain to stop, he'd have been "afraid of a bit of weather". A gazebo flapping around him would have been criticised (and probably noisy with the rain). And so on.
When you've lost the public, you can't win no matter what you do. That's where we're at with Sunak and the Conservatives in general.
Maybe something radical, like find a room ?
He doesn't fill his own car with petrol. He certainly doesn't make his own election announcement arrangements. Staff who liked him and wished him well would probably help.
I don't expect Reform to be a big factor, maybe 2 or 3% in the end
Three scenarios: 1) Farage on GBeebies every night abusing the Tories: Reform pick up a few million votes and no seats (the 2015 scenario) 2) Farage on GBeebies every night abusing the Tories: fed up Tory voters abstain (the 1997 scenario) 3) Farage on GBebies every night abusing the Tories: Reform voters "go home" to vote Tory
Comments
But that's a bit different from the RefUK point. Other parties have approved candidates who have been vetted but don't yet have seats (the vetting is far from perfect, but they've not just walked in and said, "Hello - I'd like to be a Tory candidate"). They also have people like senior councillors who haven't been through the approval process but have managed to get through 25 years without a disastrous gaffe.
RefUK are extremely prone to being seen as a vehicle for individuals who are quite exotic "characters", and have been banned from the local Conservative Club for saying the sort of things that even the old buffers in there find rather offensive ("Marjorie's grandson is a gay, and she was quite upset...") They do walk in off the street, they haven't had the edges smoothed off by decades on the Audit Committee, and they will suddenly claim that Goebbels' problem was he was a bit wet. So not having sufficient approved candidates is a problem - remember, approval and selection are different things.
That's not to say there won't be stories about fruity candidates from other parties in the next few weeks - I mean, there are hundreds of candidates, we've just had Rochdale, and a Tory candidate will assuredly post something insane on Twitter. But RefUK are much more vulnerable to it.
https://x.com/staylorish/status/1793544917865955356
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1793554758923588029?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
BORING
Lab 44.0%
Con 23.2%
Ref 11.2%
LD 9.6%
Green 6.7%
SNP 2.7%
earning potentialglobal significance"What on Earth is wrong with Rishi Sunak?
This maybe an eye-opening moment for some of the more sensible Con > Ref switchers...
But you highlight the problem for Starmer and Reeves.
Promise not to introduce new property taxes, then immediately do so and they take a big political hit and kill any chance of a honeymoon for the new government.
Wait a year or more and it becomes harder to blame the previous government and gives them less time for the reforms to work.
Lab 44
Con 30
LD 12
Ref 7
GRN 5
Lab maj 80-120.
If only there was a website where I could find out how to make money off these projections.
Actually it's probably for the best that I haven't found one yet.
As it is, I reckon the Tories will claw back Reform votes, and scrape to 150-200 seats. Very bad but not the extinction they thoroughly deserve. Boo
https://x.com/undertheraedar/status/1793317951518499003
Constituency hexagon shp files etc
11 months after MoS revealed police seized luxury campervan, party demands its return
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13205291/We-want-110-000-motorhome-say-cash-strapped-SNP.html
"for 2 days theyve been going on about the the priminster wiv no umbrella jesus it doesnt mater find something else to talk about he spoke. tv should stop wingeing on theres more important things going on in the world....."
That effect disappears if Farage takes over. I'm not sure he would have attracted more votes than he would have put off.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingdecember2023
"My XL is huge he weighs over 50kg no bother is the biggest softy, brought up with my kids"
But since 2020 he's been stirring up trouble and continuing to campaign and attack his political opponents (mostly the Tories) so now when the moment of truth comes and he drops out of standing for election, everything he's done since 2020 looks completely disingenuous.
But then, this is Farage we're talking about, so of course it looks disingenuous...
Too high
It's falling
Plan is working
Plan isn't working etc
Small boats of illegals is what 30k a year. Rwanda is a drop in the bucket even if it did work, but will get a stupud amount of coverage during the campaign.
As the #GE2024 campaign kicks off, our latest research finds Labour’s Shad Cab ‘big 4’ have higher net favourability scores than their government counterparts.
Starmer (+1) vs Sunak (-22)
Reeves (+1) vs Hunt (-15)
Cooper (-1) vs Cleverly (-11)
Lammy (-6) vs Cameron (-13)
“The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023. “
220,000 dependants. People with no jobs that now require schools, health, welfare, housing, pensions, childcare
It’s a national policy of self destruction via immigration. And we wonder why our public services are under pressure, our rivers full of shit, house ownership a dream for many, and hospitals packed to bursting, with queues snaking round the food banks
The question is whether that becomes the issue uppermost in the mind of voters.
Do you continue to vote for the Tory party who endlessly fail?
Or do you switch to Reform who offer a route to get the Tory party back in line with the sensible policies which everyone supports?
Some folk seem to want to leave Brexit Britain, whether they're indigenes or not is unclear.
'emigration increased in 2023'
The problem isn't so much immigrants but that they're not heavily paying for the opportunity to migrate here.
I don't expect Reform to be a big factor, maybe 2 or 3% in the end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjVmEpUNN68
If you want to reduce immigration significantly you are going to have to do things that will be very unpalatable and get a lot of stick. There's no easy or nice way of doing it.
So it is with immigration. No party will tackle it. We can’t even send one person to Rwanda. Despite spending £100ms. The elite is determined to keep the borders open OR it’s just too Farage-y to worry about and they don’t want to look UKIPy to their friends
The end result will be the same. We ended up with the ultimate rupture. Brexit. And same here: anger will grow until there is an almighty bust up and voters elect quasi fascists. Something completely avoidable if the problem had been addressed earlier
As I reported this morning - there were 2 camps of thinking in Tory HQ re election dates.
One, led by Isaac Levido, wanted to go long to let economic good news sink in & get those interest rate cuts in
One, led by James Forsyth, called for a snap
Forsyth (Rishi’s bestie) won
Anyway it is all academic as he wasn't going to get elected and the probability of it happening has reduced significantly even further by deciding not to stand.
1) Farage on GBeebies every night abusing the Tories: Reform pick up a few million votes and no seats (the 2015 scenario)
2) Farage on GBeebies every night abusing the Tories: fed up Tory voters abstain (the 1997 scenario)
3) Farage on GBebies every night abusing the Tories: Reform voters "go home" to vote Tory
From the ONS immigration report. Huge increase in people coming to the UK to work.
This is one of the many reasons why activists aren't keen on him....