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Were some Tory MPs secretly lobotomised? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited June 8 in General
imageWere some Tory MPs secretly lobotomised? – politicalbetting.com

The magic number required to oust Rishi Sunak is not the 52 letters to trigger a vote of confidence in him but the 173 Tory MPs required to vote against Sunakm the chance of the latter happening is as infetismal a Boris Johnson being a declared husband of the century.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    edited May 23
    Please can someone with cash to spare send £350k to Count Binface, so that every contituency has a “screw the damn lot of you” option.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Given the source, this tale seems to be more in Hope than expectation.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    This Biden endorsement might appeal to TSE's sense of humour.
    https://x.com/AntiToxicPeople/status/1793465125783187468/photo/1
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Christopher Hope is a complete idiot. The voice of the Tory lunatic fringe.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,476
    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    edited May 23
    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    The voters are implacably furious. Once they decide that the Tories deserve a shellacking, there isn't really a mechanism under FPTP voting to control how big a shellacking they get.

    A poorly planned campaign could see the Tories lose ground from here. If the Lib Dems, conversely, have a good campaign, then the differential swing could lose Sunak a lot more seats than even the most pessimistic forecasts.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).

    All he needed was a brolly. Hold it himself if he wants. Just don’t get soaked as it looks awful
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).

    Does being a party matter preclude the use of an umbrella and/or a raincoat as well?
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451
    I think the number of letters was rising and sunak had simply had enough trying to govern the ungovernable tories. Many keep saying the numbers will narrow, but I don’t think so. The electorate want the tories out and the numbers are the numbers. In addition there is tactical voting. Both ref and con are on a downward trajectory in the poll of polls after the electorate. Finally the conservative campaign machine is broken as witnessed by the rainy announcement, the candidate not being in place, the infighting to become the leader in opposition, the 5-6 ideological factions from ethnonationaliats, to centrists, to regionalists to libertarians to brexiteers. It was about to be revealed that rwanda wouldn't work to stop the numbers (which are coming out today). The economic numbers are a blip and extremely precarious. I mean can you imagine if the tories actually won... what a nightmare that would be for the country. Even the majority tories know they need time in opposition to reorganize and rethink what they are about and time to develop a new generation of millenial centre right talent. The tory campaign will be a disaster and it will be a labour landslide in its own right. But when they highlight their own internal division in this way the electorate will shun the tories like a lepper. Trying to oust the pm in a ge campaign confirms to everybody why the tories cannot govern. The numbers are actually the numbers and it is going to be a blood bath.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    I'm not sure 2017-19 was a good advert for minority governance.

    The voters chose the Tories last time and ensured to give a large majority to them too. I expect they'll give an equally large majority to their new choice this time too.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    edited May 23
    Okay, so it’s one image per day. Here’s mine, before going back to work.



    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/22/sympathy-not-forthcoming-tears-paula-vennells-post-office/
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    You’re the boss but… the rendering problem is clearly a vanilla-only issue.

    Couldn’t we just encourage posters to embed image links via the html “img” tag?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Was yesterday a disaster? It seems to me to be exactly what you'd expect from a Sunak GE launch.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    edited May 23
    DougSeal said:

    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).

    Does being a party matter preclude the use of an umbrella and/or a raincoat as well?
    Of course not, did I suggest that?

    I'm just reporting what Watt said.

    I thought it was worthwhile to do so given the debate starting re number of letters. Watt was very confident this was nonsense. He added the point re the building so I added that too.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Dura_Ace said:

    Was yesterday a disaster? It seems to me to be exactly what you'd expect from a Sunak GE launch.

    Well, yes...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    p.s. presumably if commenting to a photo post, it would be helpful to delete the photo url from the quoted post before commenting?
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    edited May 23
    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).

    What bollocks. Are the Old Bill going to lock him up if he did it inside No. 10 because it was pissing down?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    You’re the boss but… the rendering problem is clearly a vanilla-only issue.

    Couldn’t we just encourage posters to embed image links via the html “img” tag?
    Same issue might present itself, the current fix is to see how things work, we me may move to only allow only embed links via html in the future.

    Vanilla does shit upgrades, I am also trying to get the search facility working again.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    I'm not sure 2017-19 was a good advert for minority governance.

    The voters chose the Tories last time and ensured to give a large majority to them too. I expect they'll give an equally large majority to their new choice this time too.
    Both of you seem to think the electorate is one giant sentient being. I appreciate that a few people might adjust their vote based on expectations, but you can't vote 73% Labour or something. In almost all constituencies it's binary, a wasted vote, or not voting at all.

    I also suspect that tactical voting won't be particularly widespread with the exception of key Lib Dem targets. That might blunt the chance of a Storegga Slide*.

    *I think this term should be used for any swing above Labour '97.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Dura_Ace said:

    Was yesterday a disaster? It seems to me to be exactly what you'd expect from a Sunak GE launch.

    A disaster was exactly what was expected!

    Don’t No.10 have a pop-up gazebo canopy they can put up over the lectern?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Was yesterday a disaster? It seems to me to be exactly what you'd expect from a Sunak GE launch.

    A disaster was exactly what was expected!

    Don’t No.10 have a pop-up gazebo canopy they can put up over the lectern?
    Sounds like a bizarre game of Cluedo.

    'Professor Sunak, in the pop up gazebo, with an election announcement.'
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    I suspect a certain someone is going to make hay with timezones.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Steve Bray was so based yesterday. SKS should knight him.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Eabhal said:

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    I suspect a certain someone is going to make hay with timezones.
    I wonder if AI can create images using letters?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    edited May 23
    Interesting that since the announcement, Betfair has moved away from both extremes.

    Con most seats has gone from 14.5 to 17.

    But Con to lose over 200 seats has gone from 1.49 to 1.7.

    So Con even less likely to get most seats but also less likely to be a wipeout.

    However still odds on to lose over 200 seats - though quite a significant move away.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    One thing Robert and I noted was that when people embedded more than one pic in a post that would cause Vanilla to start shrinking photos in the past/blurring them now, particularly when people replied to that post.

    So we're running a trial and error approach to see what works.

    A few weeks ago I noted on a 400 post thread there were over 180 photos embedded in posts.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    You’re the boss but… the rendering problem is clearly a vanilla-only issue.

    Couldn’t we just encourage posters to embed image links via the html “img” tag?
    Same issue might present itself, the current fix is to see how things work, we me may move to only allow only embed links via html in the future.

    Vanilla does shit upgrades, I am also trying to get the search facility working again.
    Anything that keeps a tiresome parallel travelog off the threads is to be welcomed.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Eabhal said:

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    I suspect a certain someone is going to make hay with timezones.
    They would be foolish to do so.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    Dura_Ace said:

    Steve Bray was so based yesterday. SKS should knight him.

    At least he remembered an umbrella.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    I suspect a certain someone is going to make hay with timezones.
    I wonder if AI can create images using letters?
    Bring back ASCII art like it’s 1994 again!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.

    I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.

    When will nominations close?

    The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.

    Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited May 23
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    Er, what?

    I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.

    If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.

    She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.

    Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40237833

    https://www.politico.eu/article/how-theresa-may-lost-it-uk-election-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-jim-messina-lynton-crosby-uk-sarah-palin-campaign/

  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    Er, what?

    I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.

    If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.

    She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.

    Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40237833

    https://www.politico.eu/article/how-theresa-may-lost-it-uk-election-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-jim-messina-lynton-crosby-uk-sarah-palin-campaign/

    "Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."

    Yup.

    In a nutshell.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited May 23
    I would like to say a big thank you to Sunak for announcing a July election.

    I was not looking forward to covering a UK general election and a US presidential election held within days of each other.

    I couldn't handle two massive elections at the same time.
  • Options
    FlannerFlanner Posts: 436
    Foxy said:

    I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.

    I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.

    When will nominations close?

    The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.

    Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.

    Nominations close at 4 pm on June7
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/UKPGE Election timetable 4 July 2024.docx

  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,193
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    No the result in 2017 was because well-off people wanted the taxpayer to subsidise their later years.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    Er, what?

    I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.

    If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.

    She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.

    Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40237833

    https://www.politico.eu/article/how-theresa-may-lost-it-uk-election-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-jim-messina-lynton-crosby-uk-sarah-palin-campaign/

    "Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."

    Yup.

    In a nutshell.
    +1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    Er, what?

    I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.

    If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.

    She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.

    Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40237833

    https://www.politico.eu/article/how-theresa-may-lost-it-uk-election-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-jim-messina-lynton-crosby-uk-sarah-palin-campaign/

    And the Jezgasm was real. Hard to see Sunak getting Tranmere Rovers fans singing his name, plus there was a strong motivation for Remainers to vote anything but Tory.

    2017 was the campaign with more campaign shift than any other in recent times, but unique conditions.

    Additionally voters don't like unnecessarily early elections.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    Dura_Ace said:

    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).

    What bollocks. Are the Old Bill going to lock him up if he did it inside No. 10 because it was pissing down?
    Nobody said it was a criminal matter. What it would have been is an unhelpful row with the civil service matter.

    I agree it's a pretty weak point from Watts, though. There are loads of buildings nearby, including CCHQ and Parliament (which isn't a Government building - it's the legislature), and it wouldn't have looked odd at all to do it indoors on a rainy day.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Was yesterday a disaster? It seems to me to be exactly what you'd expect from a Sunak GE launch.

    A disaster was exactly what was expected!

    Don’t No.10 have a pop-up gazebo canopy they can put up over the lectern?
    I thought they had decided it was a Government asset and couldn't be used.

    As someone else pointed out yesterday - it’s almost like Rishi’s press team hate him
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    In answer to the header question...

    There's no secret about it, Conservative MPs openly, gleefully lobotomised themselves in 2019.

    Everything else follows from that.

    In other news, Simon Case is up at the COVID enquiry today. Trying to work out if 'good day to bury bad news' applies or not.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    Er, what?

    I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.

    If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.

    She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.

    Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40237833

    https://www.politico.eu/article/how-theresa-may-lost-it-uk-election-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-jim-messina-lynton-crosby-uk-sarah-palin-campaign/

    And they didn't want her to have a large majority as a result.

    Here's a stat. Only just over half of Labour's voters in 2017 approved of Labour's policies or leadership. That late surge was a more or less negative vote to make sure the Tories didn't have landslide.

    So, there *is* a very recent example of voters 'putting their X in a different box because they feared a large majority.'

    I know you think 2017 was the standard election and 2019 the outlier but such evidence as we have doesn't support that view.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    DougSeal said:

    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).

    Does being a party matter preclude the use of an umbrella and/or a raincoat as well?
    It sounds like nonsense in any case, that calling a general election is a party and not government matter. It must have been a late decision too: were we not told at one point that the announcement was to be moved inside?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,280
    @IanB2 what kind of dog do you have?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,280
    Have we discussed the term “Genny Lec” yet? The more whimsical the event the higher the Labour majority in my view.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    edited May 23

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    You’re the boss but… the rendering problem is clearly a vanilla-only issue.

    Couldn’t we just encourage posters to embed image links via the html “img” tag?
    Same issue might present itself, the current fix is to see how things work, we me may move to only allow only embed links via html in the future.

    Vanilla does shit upgrades, I am also trying to get the search facility working again.
    Erm, did you see this?

    Search functionality outage
    Upcoming scheduled maintenance notice
    Vanilla engineering will be applying patches to our search environment. Search functionality will be down for a short while while patches are being applied.

    Impact to other parts of the site is not expected.
    Start time
    May 23, 19:00 EDT
    Estimated duration
    1 hour
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    You’re the boss but… the rendering problem is clearly a vanilla-only issue.

    Couldn’t we just encourage posters to embed image links via the html “img” tag?
    Same issue might present itself, the current fix is to see how things work, we me may move to only allow only embed links via html in the future.

    Vanilla does shit upgrades, I am also trying to get the search facility working again.
    Erm, did you see this?

    Search functionality outage
    Upcoming scheduled maintenance notice
    Vanilla engineering will be applying patches to our search environment. Search functionality will be down for a short while while patches are being applied.

    Impact to other parts of the site is not expected.
    Start time
    May 23, 19:00 EDT
    Estimated duration
    1 hour
    No.
  • Options
    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 193

    I think the number of letters was rising and sunak had simply had enough trying to govern the ungovernable tories. Many keep saying the numbers will narrow, but I don’t think so. The electorate want the tories out and the numbers are the numbers. In addition there is tactical voting. Both ref and con are on a downward trajectory in the poll of polls after the electorate. Finally the conservative campaign machine is broken as witnessed by the rainy announcement, the candidate not being in place, the infighting to become the leader in opposition, the 5-6 ideological factions from ethnonationaliats, to centrists, to regionalists to libertarians to brexiteers. It was about to be revealed that rwanda wouldn't work to stop the numbers (which are coming out today). The economic numbers are a blip and extremely precarious. I mean can you imagine if the tories actually won... what a nightmare that would be for the country. Even the majority tories know they need time in opposition to reorganize and rethink what they are about and time to develop a new generation of millenial centre right talent. The tory campaign will be a disaster and it will be a labour landslide in its own right. But when they highlight their own internal division in this way the electorate will shun the tories like a lepper. Trying to oust the pm in a ge campaign confirms to everybody why the tories cannot govern. The numbers are actually the numbers and it is going to be a blood bath.

    On the Maitlis podcast they were speculating that Rishi was simply sick of it all and just wanted to get it over with.
    Even two of the more moderate Tories, Brine and Ellwood, were giving bravado interviews (when people really see Rishi etc etc). The only honest one was Steve Baker who was humourous and acknowledged he might lose his seat.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Dura_Ace said:

    Steve Bray was so based yesterday. SKS should knight him.

    Bray playing D-ream is the soundtrack to the defining image of the GE, his masterpiece.

    Starmer should put him in the Lords for the LOLs.

  • Options
    theProletheProle Posts: 1,011
    Dura_Ace said:

    Was yesterday a disaster? It seems to me to be exactly what you'd expect from a Sunak GE launch.

    Those two statements are hardly mutually exclusive. I expect pretty much everything Sunak does to be disastrous, and so far he's not disappointed.

    Looking back, they were insane to ditch Truss for him - her administration *might* have stabilised, but she was at least willing to try stuff, whereas Sunak has been a complete vacuum of anything other than a really poorly presented version of "more of the same".
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Cicero said:

    It's beginning to look like Sunak was forced out by his own side anyway. The Tory Party isn't actually ready for the GE and activists as well as MPs are livid.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/23/july-general-election-tory-mps-may-october

    If this is true then the campaign is going to be an ill planned shambles. A fitting post script to the worst government in at least 250 years.

    Ludicrous hyperbole.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Was yesterday a disaster? It seems to me to be exactly what you'd expect from a Sunak GE launch.

    A disaster was exactly what was expected!

    Don’t No.10 have a pop-up gazebo canopy they can put up over the lectern?
    I thought they had decided it was a Government asset and couldn't be used.

    As someone else pointed out yesterday - it’s almost like Rishi’s press team hate him
    Rishi probably stopped the press team's weekly parties that brought down Boris Johnson.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Foxy said:

    I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.

    I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.

    When will nominations close?

    The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.

    Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.

    I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Cicero said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    The voters are implacably furious. Once they decide that the Tories deserve a shellacking, there isn't really a mechanism under FPTP voting to control how big a shellacking they get.

    A poorly planned campaign could see the Tories lose ground from here. If the Lib Dems, conversely, have a good campaign, then the differential swing could lose Sunak a lot more seats than even the most pessimistic forecasts.
    Given Tory polling (as I’ve pointed out a few times) is at the point that seats rapidly disappear away my pessimistic forecast for the Tories is 20 seats - so I don’t think they will do much worse than that.

    But whether they get 200 seats or 20 seats will be determined by the campaign and I can easily see them getting the lower end of that scale because Rishi just isn’t good at h the is stuff as shown at 5pm yesterday
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,095

    DougSeal said:

    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).

    Does being a party matter preclude the use of an umbrella and/or a raincoat as well?
    It sounds like nonsense in any case, that calling a general election is a party and not government matter. It must have been a late decision too: were we not told at one point that the announcement was to be moved inside?
    Reporting that you have asked the King for a dissolution sounds like a Government matter to me. However the rest of the speech was pure party politics.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    I think the GE outcome will be a narrower margin than currently seen in the polls. There’s plenty of past Tory voters that have moved to ‘don’t know’ an awful lot will probably move back. There’s not a lot that will persuade those Tory voters still polling as Tory to change their minds during the campaign. Their figures will likely rise from low-mid 20s to high 20s low 30s.

    Labour will probably convince a few DK voters and lose a few flakier supporters. But as the Tories firm up a tad they will move from mid-high 40s down a touch to low-mid.

    LDs will firm up gradually during the campaign and will probably end up in low double digits.

    Everything else will fall around those central movements.

    So I suspect something like Lab 40-43 Con 29-32 Ld 10-13. Seats harder to consider as figures in those ranges can result in a staggering variety of outcomes but wouldn’t be surprised if it shook out at something like Lab 345-375 Con 200-230 LD 15-45etc.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553

    Foxy said:

    I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.

    I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.

    When will nominations close?

    The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.

    Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.

    I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
    That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    edited May 23
    That Tory conference of 2016 was a big event for May’s loss of credibility.

    I remember approaching that with a real sense of forboding. The Brexit vote, moving towards Lancaster House etc.

    And it turned into comedy gold. The dropping letters, the robotic delivery, the interruptions.

    And with an able supporting act in the shape of Liz Pork Markets.

    That was when we saw the Emperor’s Party had no clothes.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Cicero said:

    It's beginning to look like Sunak was forced out by his own side anyway. The Tory Party isn't actually ready for the GE and activists as well as MPs are livid.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/23/july-general-election-tory-mps-may-october

    If this is true then the campaign is going to be an ill planned shambles. A fitting post script to the worst government in at least 250 years.

    Ludicrous hyperbole.
    As always, opinions are built partly on facts and evidence, and partly on feel.

    Lets look at just a couple of the points you dismissed:
    "forced out by his own side" - plenty of reporting both of the squabbling camps inside the party and of the "we can still get him out" attempt last night.
    "isn't actually ready for the GE" - widely reported that they were planning for November and had budget planned for a long campaign over the summer
    "activists as well as MPs are livid" - you're not denying that, surely
    "an ill-planned shambles". The announcement couldn't have been worse. A rambling speech with "oh by the way' we're having an election" as a throw-away line in the middle. The rain. The music. The photographs. And then the launch event where they threw Sky out live on air then followed him round, whilst inside the hall Cabinet members looked like they wanted to be anywhere but here.

    That's the evidence. Your dismissal I'm afraid is the feel part. What you want, and what there is are not the same thing here. Sadly for you and your party.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    Day one: operation kick the useless buggers out.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    These rebels would not only need to remove Sunak as Leader but then put forward a replacement Leader who could win the confidence of Parliament as PM and delay the general election for a few months. As if Sunak was removed the King would require any new PM to win a vote of confidence for his government in Parliament before delaying a dissertation of Parliament.

    Not happening
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    Er, what?

    I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.

    If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.

    She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.

    Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40237833

    https://www.politico.eu/article/how-theresa-may-lost-it-uk-election-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-jim-messina-lynton-crosby-uk-sarah-palin-campaign/

    "Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."

    Yup.

    In a nutshell.
    +1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
    Not the death tax imo but a lousy presidential-style campaign directed by Lynton Crosby who successfully blamed Nick & Fiona after the fact, and especially the two terrorist outrages that occurred during the campaign (London Bridge and Ariana Grande) which Labour blamed on Theresa May's cutting police strength by 20,000.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    ToryJim said:

    I think the GE outcome will be a narrower margin than currently seen in the polls. There’s plenty of past Tory voters that have moved to ‘don’t know’ an awful lot will probably move back. There’s not a lot that will persuade those Tory voters still polling as Tory to change their minds during the campaign. Their figures will likely rise from low-mid 20s to high 20s low 30s.

    Labour will probably convince a few DK voters and lose a few flakier supporters. But as the Tories firm up a tad they will move from mid-high 40s down a touch to low-mid.

    LDs will firm up gradually during the campaign and will probably end up in low double digits.

    Everything else will fall around those central movements.

    So I suspect something like Lab 40-43 Con 29-32 Ld 10-13. Seats harder to consider as figures in those ranges can result in a staggering variety of outcomes but wouldn’t be surprised if it shook out at something like Lab 345-375 Con 200-230 LD 15-45etc.

    This feels right to me, although I think the LibDems will do some real damage to the Tories in the SE. I put them closer to 40 than 20. Which will put the Tories towards the lower end.

    The Tory vote will hold up in the Midlands better than people expect. But will collapse in the north.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    Er, what?

    I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.

    If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.

    She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.

    Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40237833

    https://www.politico.eu/article/how-theresa-may-lost-it-uk-election-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-jim-messina-lynton-crosby-uk-sarah-palin-campaign/

    And they didn't want her to have a large majority as a result.

    Here's a stat. Only just over half of Labour's voters in 2017 approved of Labour's policies or leadership. That late surge was a more or less negative vote to make sure the Tories didn't have landslide.

    So, there *is* a very recent example of voters 'putting their X in a different box because they feared a large majority.'

    I know you think 2017 was the standard election and 2019 the outlier but such evidence as we have doesn't support that view.
    Isn't 2017 rather unusual because it was a very early election called by a PM who did, in fact, have a majority?

    So she went to the country unnecessarily to capitalise on what was seen as Labour chaos (but actually they tended to rally round for the campaign) and to get her a larger majority because she didn't want the faff of dealing with the challenges of making compromises to get legislation through. She then ran a pretty dire campaign, and people who might have been receptive to her generally just thought "nah".

    As with all elections, people voted for all sorts of reasons too. There were doubtless people who'd not really looked at Corbyn except the drumbeat of Labour splits over a couple of years... they then saw him on the stump and thought, "actually, he's pretty good" (many changed their mind pretty decisively over the next two years but still).

    Your argument may be better supported by the landslides of 1997, 2001 and 1983 elections where the winners got thumping wins but actually rather underperformed the late polling - there might well have been some element of some people wanting the result but not the death of opposition. However, 1987 is a fly in the ointment - the pollsters had the Tories pretty much bang on, while Labour were overestimated.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Dura_Ace said:

    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).

    What bollocks. Are the Old Bill going to lock him up if he did it inside No. 10 because it was pissing down?
    Would be a compliant to the Electoral Commission; misuse of public resources. Which would certainly be found against him, and turn into one of those political niggles like the party fines.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    ToryJim said:

    I think the GE outcome will be a narrower margin than currently seen in the polls. There’s plenty of past Tory voters that have moved to ‘don’t know’ an awful lot will probably move back. There’s not a lot that will persuade those Tory voters still polling as Tory to change their minds during the campaign. Their figures will likely rise from low-mid 20s to high 20s low 30s.

    Labour will probably convince a few DK voters and lose a few flakier supporters. But as the Tories firm up a tad they will move from mid-high 40s down a touch to low-mid.

    LDs will firm up gradually during the campaign and will probably end up in low double digits.

    Everything else will fall around those central movements.

    So I suspect something like Lab 40-43 Con 29-32 Ld 10-13. Seats harder to consider as figures in those ranges can result in a staggering variety of outcomes but wouldn’t be surprised if it shook out at something like Lab 345-375 Con 200-230 LD 15-45etc.

    Yes, that is the Tory best case scenario, but polls like Opinium have priced in a DK to Tory switch and still show an 18% lead.

    I think Con 200-249 is reasonable value on BFX at 8.2, but the favourite is 100-149.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    HYUFD said:

    These rebels would not only need to remove Sunak as Leader but then put forward a replacement Leader who could win the confidence of Parliament as PM and delay the general election for a few months. As if Sunak was removed the King would require any new PM to win a vote of confidence for his government in Parliament before delaying a dissertation of Parliament.

    Not happening

    It is not happening because they've never got the letters. But they'd surely win a confidence vote.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    ToryJim said:

    I think the GE outcome will be a narrower margin than currently seen in the polls. There’s plenty of past Tory voters that have moved to ‘don’t know’ an awful lot will probably move back. There’s not a lot that will persuade those Tory voters still polling as Tory to change their minds during the campaign. Their figures will likely rise from low-mid 20s to high 20s low 30s.

    Labour will probably convince a few DK voters and lose a few flakier supporters. But as the Tories firm up a tad they will move from mid-high 40s down a touch to low-mid.

    LDs will firm up gradually during the campaign and will probably end up in low double digits.

    Everything else will fall around those central movements.

    So I suspect something like Lab 40-43 Con 29-32 Ld 10-13. Seats harder to consider as figures in those ranges can result in a staggering variety of outcomes but wouldn’t be surprised if it shook out at something like Lab 345-375 Con 200-230 LD 15-45etc.

    Con 29-32 assumes a lot of voters will return to the Tory party as the election progresses.

    Look at last nights announcement I just don’t see it happening - Rishi didn’t look like a Prime Minister - he looked like a badly organised drowning puppy
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Graham Brady’s memoirs would be an interesting read.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited May 23
    Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made

    The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery


    Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.

    The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.

    In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.

    It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.

    The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.

    The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inside-the-cabinet-debate-where-election-decision-was-made-xz2vct0tt
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    DougSeal said:

    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.

    He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).

    Does being a party matter preclude the use of an umbrella and/or a raincoat as well?
    It sounds like nonsense in any case, that calling a general election is a party and not government matter. It must have been a late decision too: were we not told at one point that the announcement was to be moved inside?
    Reporting that you have asked the King for a dissolution sounds like a Government matter to me. However the rest of the speech was pure party politics.
    Yes but the party politics could easily have been left to the evening event.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    I would like to say a big thank you to Sunak for announcing a July election.

    I was not looking forward to covering a UK general election and a US presidential election held within days of each other.

    I couldn't handle two massive elections at the same time.

    Where there's a will there's a way.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    ToryJim said:

    Have we discussed the term “Genny Lec” yet? The more whimsical the event the higher the Labour majority in my view.

    Anyone who uses such a term and displays such contempt for the English language should be horsewhipped daily for a year.
    Snappy Genners?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @lara_spirit

    Labour lead at 25 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 21 (+1)
    LAB 46 (-1)
    LIB DEM 9 (=)
    REF UK 12 (+1)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 21 - 22 May
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    ToryJim said:

    I think the GE outcome will be a narrower margin than currently seen in the polls. There’s plenty of past Tory voters that have moved to ‘don’t know’ an awful lot will probably move back. There’s not a lot that will persuade those Tory voters still polling as Tory to change their minds during the campaign. Their figures will likely rise from low-mid 20s to high 20s low 30s.

    Labour will probably convince a few DK voters and lose a few flakier supporters. But as the Tories firm up a tad they will move from mid-high 40s down a touch to low-mid.

    LDs will firm up gradually during the campaign and will probably end up in low double digits.

    Everything else will fall around those central movements.

    So I suspect something like Lab 40-43 Con 29-32 Ld 10-13. Seats harder to consider as figures in those ranges can result in a staggering variety of outcomes but wouldn’t be surprised if it shook out at something like Lab 345-375 Con 200-230 LD 15-45etc.

    The problem for probably a majority of Tory voters is, an election victory would be a triumph for Sunak, who would stay. For five years.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    One thing Robert and I noted was that when people embedded more than one pic in a post that would cause Vanilla to start shrinking photos in the past/blurring them now, particularly when people replied to that post.

    So we're running a trial and error approach to see what works.

    A few weeks ago I noted on a 400 post thread there were over 180 photos embedded in posts.

    The replies create more photo posts than the original, hence my suggestion that people take care to delete any photos from quoted posts. (morris can ignore this post)
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    edited May 23

    SITE NOTICE.

    We have implemented a new set up regarding embedded photos.

    PBers are now only permitted to embed one photo per calendar day. This does not mean multiple photos in one post.

    The issue was too many photos were being embedded and it was causing rendering issues.

    If PBers stick to this we will consider increasing the limit.

    You’re the boss but… the rendering problem is clearly a vanilla-only issue.

    Couldn’t we just encourage posters to embed image links via the html “img” tag?
    Same issue might present itself, the current fix is to see how things work, we me may move to only allow only embed links via html in the future.

    Vanilla does shit upgrades, I am also trying to get the search facility working again.
    Erm, did you see this?

    Search functionality outage
    Upcoming scheduled maintenance notice
    Vanilla engineering will be applying patches to our search environment. Search functionality will be down for a short while while patches are being applied.

    Impact to other parts of the site is not expected.
    Start time
    May 23, 19:00 EDT
    Estimated duration
    1 hour
    No.
    Decrepit's first rule of computer ops: bookmark the status pages of all your infrastructure suppliers (whoever hosts pb, Vanilla, Cloudflare) and sign up to their maintenance emails. Then when there is a problem, it's 30 seconds to check the bookmarked pages versus several hours trying to investigate something outwith your purview.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Was yesterday a disaster? It seems to me to be exactly what you'd expect from a Sunak GE launch.

    A disaster was exactly what was expected!

    Don’t No.10 have a pop-up gazebo canopy they can put up over the lectern?
    Or someone bringing a brolly?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    I think the GE outcome will be a narrower margin than currently seen in the polls. There’s plenty of past Tory voters that have moved to ‘don’t know’ an awful lot will probably move back. There’s not a lot that will persuade those Tory voters still polling as Tory to change their minds during the campaign. Their figures will likely rise from low-mid 20s to high 20s low 30s.

    Labour will probably convince a few DK voters and lose a few flakier supporters. But as the Tories firm up a tad they will move from mid-high 40s down a touch to low-mid.

    LDs will firm up gradually during the campaign and will probably end up in low double digits.

    Everything else will fall around those central movements.

    So I suspect something like Lab 40-43 Con 29-32 Ld 10-13. Seats harder to consider as figures in those ranges can result in a staggering variety of outcomes but wouldn’t be surprised if it shook out at something like Lab 345-375 Con 200-230 LD 15-45etc.

    Con 29-32 assumes a lot of voters will return to the Tory party as the election progresses.

    Look at last nights announcement I just don’t see it happening - Rishi didn’t look like a Prime Minister - he looked like a badly organised drowning puppy
    The what if there’s no swingback question is going to hang around until we get a series of polls showing the lead tightening. It will, unless Farage takes the leadership of Reform.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    Er, what?

    I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.

    If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.

    She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.

    Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40237833

    https://www.politico.eu/article/how-theresa-may-lost-it-uk-election-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-jim-messina-lynton-crosby-uk-sarah-palin-campaign/

    "Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."

    Yup.

    In a nutshell.
    +1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
    Not the death tax imo but a lousy presidential-style campaign directed by Lynton Crosby who successfully blamed Nick & Fiona after the fact, and especially the two terrorist outrages that occurred during the campaign (London Bridge and Ariana Grande) which Labour blamed on Theresa May's cutting police strength by 20,000.
    The problem with that campaign, I think, is that they'd not bothered getting to know the product they were selling. You can't say "strong and stable" about someone who then spent six weeks hiding in a cupboard. She was, in fact, a managerial introvert - she had merits you could sell, but presenting her as Boudicca wasn't going to fly.

    If you're selling Pot Noodle, you don't announce it as fine dining (except in jest), and if you're advertising Bugatti, you don't say it's got wonderful fuel economy for the busy mum going to the shops.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    I think the GE outcome will be a narrower margin than currently seen in the polls. There’s plenty of past Tory voters that have moved to ‘don’t know’ an awful lot will probably move back. There’s not a lot that will persuade those Tory voters still polling as Tory to change their minds during the campaign. Their figures will likely rise from low-mid 20s to high 20s low 30s.

    Labour will probably convince a few DK voters and lose a few flakier supporters. But as the Tories firm up a tad they will move from mid-high 40s down a touch to low-mid.

    LDs will firm up gradually during the campaign and will probably end up in low double digits.

    Everything else will fall around those central movements.

    So I suspect something like Lab 40-43 Con 29-32 Ld 10-13. Seats harder to consider as figures in those ranges can result in a staggering variety of outcomes but wouldn’t be surprised if it shook out at something like Lab 345-375 Con 200-230 LD 15-45etc.

    Con 29-32 assumes a lot of voters will return to the Tory party as the election progresses.

    Look at last nights announcement I just don’t see it happening - Rishi didn’t look like a Prime Minister - he looked like a badly organised drowning puppy
    If that were true, the sympathy vote would come out in droves.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made

    The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery


    Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.

    The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.

    In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.

    It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.

    The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.

    The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inside-the-cabinet-debate-where-election-decision-was-made-xz2vct0tt

    Brown got a hung parliament in 2010 denying Cameron a majority
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    Eabhal said:

    ToryJim said:

    Have we discussed the term “Genny Lec” yet? The more whimsical the event the higher the Labour majority in my view.

    Anyone who uses such a term and displays such contempt for the English language should be horsewhipped daily for a year.
    Snappy Genners?
    Just as bad. Not sure why everything has to be trivialised down to the mentality of a gormless 4 year old.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    I think tactical voting will kill the Tories. Just can't see this as being anything other than terrible for them.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.

    Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
    No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.

    It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
    Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
    Er...2017?
    Er, what?

    I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.

    If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.

    She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.

    Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40237833

    https://www.politico.eu/article/how-theresa-may-lost-it-uk-election-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-jim-messina-lynton-crosby-uk-sarah-palin-campaign/

    And they didn't want her to have a large majority as a result.

    Here's a stat. Only just over half of Labour's voters in 2017 approved of Labour's policies or leadership. That late surge was a more or less negative vote to make sure the Tories didn't have landslide.

    So, there *is* a very recent example of voters 'putting their X in a different box because they feared a large majority.'

    I know you think 2017 was the standard election and 2019 the outlier but such evidence as we have doesn't support that view.
    Isn't 2017 rather unusual because it was a very early election called by a PM who did, in fact, have a majority?

    So she went to the country unnecessarily to capitalise on what was seen as Labour chaos (but actually they tended to rally round for the campaign) and to get her a larger majority because she didn't want the faff of dealing with the challenges of making compromises to get legislation through. She then ran a pretty dire campaign, and people who might have been receptive to her generally just thought "nah".

    As with all elections, people voted for all sorts of reasons too. There were doubtless people who'd not really looked at Corbyn except the drumbeat of Labour splits over a couple of years... they then saw him on the stump and thought, "actually, he's pretty good" (many changed their mind pretty decisively over the next two years but still).

    Your argument may be better supported by the landslides of 1997, 2001 and 1983 elections where the winners got thumping wins but actually rather underperformed the late polling - there might well have been some element of some people wanting the result but not the death of opposition. However, 1987 is a fly in the ointment - the pollsters had the Tories pretty much bang on, while Labour were overestimated.
    I haven’t responded to yd on this because I honestly think his ‘argument’ is so flimsy it doesn’t warrant it. The lazy slip from voters not being enthusiastic about a party’s policies to equating to not wanting a landslide is one example.

    2017 unmasked Theresa May as the pretty disastrous leader she proved, although that has been eclipsed of late.

    I do agree with @MikeSmithson and @TSE about leader ratings being very important indicators of outcome. Lots of real evidence for that.

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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."

    It's an admission they will not go before the election.

    - now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    megasaur said:

    ToryJim said:

    I think the GE outcome will be a narrower margin than currently seen in the polls. There’s plenty of past Tory voters that have moved to ‘don’t know’ an awful lot will probably move back. There’s not a lot that will persuade those Tory voters still polling as Tory to change their minds during the campaign. Their figures will likely rise from low-mid 20s to high 20s low 30s.

    Labour will probably convince a few DK voters and lose a few flakier supporters. But as the Tories firm up a tad they will move from mid-high 40s down a touch to low-mid.

    LDs will firm up gradually during the campaign and will probably end up in low double digits.

    Everything else will fall around those central movements.

    So I suspect something like Lab 40-43 Con 29-32 Ld 10-13. Seats harder to consider as figures in those ranges can result in a staggering variety of outcomes but wouldn’t be surprised if it shook out at something like Lab 345-375 Con 200-230 LD 15-45etc.

    The problem for probably a majority of Tory voters is, an election victory would be a triumph for Sunak, who would stay. For five years.
    Deservedly if he could contrive a win in these conditions.
This discussion has been closed.