And on the subject of OGH @MikeSmithson , with the election now earlier than many of us anticipated I really would love to see some thread from him on this site once more. If he is at all well enough might that be possible? Could Robert or TSE assist him to do that? It would be lovely to have an input from the great man during this election
Irregardless of whether they could achieve a delay, the delusion of those Conservative MPs who would seek it reminds me of something from the other side of the aisle: the people in Labour who like to blame the SNP for Thatcher coming to power.
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
I think tactical voting will kill the Tories. Just can't see this as being anything other than terrible for them.
Labour will do its best to mess with the LibDem targets, though. Look at our Nick, claiming Labour has a chance in Didcot despite coming behind the LibDems in both PCC and local elections covering the patch.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Sunak standing on a platform of Vote for me and I’ll waste your cash on Performative Deportation flights is quite the offer.
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
No, I really don't see that. More likely a majority that would make Tony Blair blush.
It's hard to come up with plausible numbers in electoral Calculus that would produce that outcome.
Indeed. At the moment there is deep fury at the shambles of the past 5 years and I can’t see that abating. I’ve never heard of voters marking their X in a different box because they fear the outcome of a large majority. Seems like desperately clinging onto a splintered fragment of flotsam to me.
Er...2017?
Er, what?
I know you like your pithy responses but sometimes (often) they don’t mean as much as you might think.
If you are referring to fear that Theresa May was going to win a landslide I think that had bugger all to do with it compared to her disastrous electioneering. She was unmasked as awkward, out of touch, and unable to respond to journalists’ questions. Most notably at that disastrous welfare shambles.
She dodged the tv debates and came across as robotic.
Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap.
"Bugger all to do with people fearing a large majority. They thought she was crap."
Yup.
In a nutshell.
+1 you can trace May’s change in fortune to the death tax, a sensible idea so badly announced it destroyed their lead.
Not the death tax imo but a lousy presidential-style campaign directed by Lynton Crosby who successfully blamed Nick & Fiona after the fact, and especially the two terrorist outrages that occurred during the campaign (London Bridge and Ariana Grande) which Labour blamed on Theresa May's cutting police strength by 20,000.
The problem with that campaign, I think, is that they'd not bothered getting to know the product they were selling. You can't say "strong and stable" about someone who then spent six weeks hiding in a cupboard. She was, in fact, a managerial introvert - she had merits you could sell, but presenting her as Boudicca wasn't going to fly.
If you're selling Pot Noodle, you don't announce it as fine dining (except in jest), and if you're advertising Bugatti, you don't say it's got wonderful fuel economy for the busy mum going to the shops.
Yes, and this is a perennial problem. The party spin doctors invariably try to package the new leader as a continuation of the old. Gordon Brown was not Tony Blair. More recently, Rishi Sunak is not Boris Johnson, yet every week is scripted Boris-era rants at PMQs. And in 2017, Theresa May was not David Cameron.
I think tactical voting will kill the Tories. Just can't see this as being anything other than terrible for them.
I tend to agree, and as a motivation, voting someone out is probably more lethal than voting to put the other lot in. Though it also makes the other lot fragile and less likely to win a second term.
One thing Robert and I noted was that when people embedded more than one pic in a post that would cause Vanilla to start shrinking photos in the past/blurring them now, particularly when people replied to that post.
So we're running a trial and error approach to see what works.
A few weeks ago I noted on a 400 post thread there were over 180 photos embedded in posts.
The replies create more photo posts than the original, hence my suggestion that people take care to delete any photos from quoted posts. (morris can ignore this post)
Browsers will only load an image once per a page request and with a minor bit of server configuration the photo can be sent in a way where it’s downloaded just once. So I don’t think that’s the issue here unless vanilla is very crap.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Graham Brady’s memoirs would be an interesting read.
In parts.
I suspect the stuff about his early life, career, beliefs, and Parliamentary progress would be very dry indeed. The bits about him opening his postbag at the tail end of that would occasionally pique one's interest.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Sunak standing on a platform of Vote for me and I’ll waste your cash on Performative Deportation flights is quite the offer.
I doubt the people who think Rwanda is a good idea care about the cost
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Sunak standing on a platform of Vote for me and I’ll waste your cash on Performative Deportation flights is quite the offer.
I doubt the people who think Rwanda is a good idea care about the cost
And the ones who do seem convinced that it won't cost much... A couple of flights and nobody will dare trying ever again.
Irregardless of whether they could achieve a delay, the delusion of those Conservative MPs who would seek it reminds me of something from the other side of the aisle: the people in Labour who like to blame the SNP for Thatcher coming to power.
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
Swinney has to find something to whine about. It is the SNPs function.
From a common sense standpoint it is actually better to have elections in the holidays because many schools would otherwise be disrupted.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Reform announcement at 10am could well be Farage coming back
As the dust settles (or the rain stops) I am delighted that Sunak took the decision to call the election for the 4th July
I have little doubt two factors came into play in his decision, the first and probably deciding one was the open plotting and warfare going on in his own party sapping his authority, but also he has looked into the economy for the Autumn and decided he would not be able to improve his prospects with further tax cuts and, as I think @DavidL said, yesterday's PSBR figures were horrific indicating substantial cuts in public spending and increases in taxes will become unavoidable
The final outcome will be a Starmer majority government and the conservative party sent into opposition with lots of time to come to their senses (hopefully)
Trevor Phillips on Sky has said that Starmer needs to avoid any 'bigotgate' episodes but he does expect someone on the Labour side to make an error of some form
I am just happy to watch with great interest how the next 6 weeks unfold, but certainly the spotlight on Starmer from now on through his election as PM and beyond will be fascinating
I think the GE outcome will be a narrower margin than currently seen in the polls. There’s plenty of past Tory voters that have moved to ‘don’t know’ an awful lot will probably move back. There’s not a lot that will persuade those Tory voters still polling as Tory to change their minds during the campaign. Their figures will likely rise from low-mid 20s to high 20s low 30s.
Labour will probably convince a few DK voters and lose a few flakier supporters. But as the Tories firm up a tad they will move from mid-high 40s down a touch to low-mid.
LDs will firm up gradually during the campaign and will probably end up in low double digits.
Everything else will fall around those central movements.
So I suspect something like Lab 40-43 Con 29-32 Ld 10-13. Seats harder to consider as figures in those ranges can result in a staggering variety of outcomes but wouldn’t be surprised if it shook out at something like Lab 345-375 Con 200-230 LD 15-45etc.
Con 29-32 assumes a lot of voters will return to the Tory party as the election progresses.
Look at last nights announcement I just don’t see it happening - Rishi didn’t look like a Prime Minister - he looked like a badly organised drowning puppy
Its certainly possible that lost Tory voters come back to the fold. Many potential reasons - they decide the party is conservative after all, they fear Starmer, they revert back to learned behaviour.
I don;'t think its very likely though. We have seen plenty of elections where this does not happen - 1997 being a case in point for the Tories, or 2019 for Labour.
I think tactical voting will kill the Tories. Just can't see this as being anything other than terrible for them.
Labour will do its best to mess with the LibDem targets, though. Look at our Nick, claiming Labour has a chance in Didcot despite coming behind the LibDems in both PCC and local elections covering the patch.
They’re playing the Tories’ little helpers here.
In nearby Bicester & Woodstock, the Conservative candidate, Rupert Harrison, is plaintively pleading it’s a three-way marginal, citing the ever hapless Electoral Calculus.
No one with any local knowledge agrees, but if Rupert talks up Labour’s chances, that helps split the anti-Tory vote and he has a better chance of getting in.
Same will happen in Didcot & Wantage, as you say, and Henley & Thame. @ydoethur will be amused to learn Labour has selected an Ofsted inspector for their candidate in the latter, which seems courageous.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Sunak standing on a platform of Vote for me and I’ll waste your cash on Performative Deportation flights is quite the offer.
I doubt the people who think Rwanda is a good idea care about the cost
The cost is not upper most in the minds of either side.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Reform announcement at 10am could well be Farage coming back
Every time Reform make an announcement it gets more attention than it otherwise would because it could be Farage coming back, but so far it never has been. My prediction is it won't be this time either.
I think tactical voting will kill the Tories. Just can't see this as being anything other than terrible for them.
Labour will do its best to mess with the LibDem targets, though. Look at our Nick, claiming Labour has a chance in Didcot despite coming behind the LibDems in both PCC and local elections covering the patch.
Nick Palmer, nice chap though he is, isn't going to be directing troops on the ground.
By all accounts, Labour HQ has been pretty damned clear with its candidates where they ought to be directing their energies if they want to be on the approved list in 2028/29, and that often isn't in their own seat. They are expected to go from their seat, with a carload of activists, to the nearest target.
Yes, Nick and many others will talk up their prospects on a niche website - you can't really expect them to write off seats publicly. But it's all pretty irrelevant on the ground.
I'd contrast 2017 and 2019 - Momentum and Labour at that time had a particular hatred of broadly progressive types who weren't interested in the Corbyn Kool Aid and did actively pursue that at the expense of their own interests.
Irregardless of whether they could achieve a delay, the delusion of those Conservative MPs who would seek it reminds me of something from the other side of the aisle: the people in Labour who like to blame the SNP for Thatcher coming to power.
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
Swinney has to find something to whine about. It is the SNPs function.
From a common sense standpoint it is actually better to have elections in the holidays because many schools would otherwise be disrupted.
It’s a small-minded response which is illustrative of the ideological funk in which the SNP are mired.
Like her or not, the Sturgeon SNP was able to project a sense of bold positivity and an outward-looking, progressive independent nation.
Swinney seems to be retreating to the comfort zone of petulant whingebaggery which, while it certainly has a constituency, is not going to win many folk over.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Reform announcement at 10am could well be Farage coming back
I did say "attempt".
Otherwise, we're left with the hilarious "things have started to go wrong."
https://x.com/KateEMcCann/status/1793338591113785815 Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
@matt_dathan Rishi Sunak confirms that Rwanda flights will NOT take off before the election.
"If I'm elected I'll get the flights off...after the election," he tells @LBC.
He says preparations for the first flights will "go on" regardless of the election.
This is after Home Office officials and lawyers warned ministers last night it was "very very unlikely" they could get flights off during the election campaign.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Sunak standing on a platform of Vote for me and I’ll waste your cash on Performative Deportation flights is quite the offer.
I doubt the people who think Rwanda is a good idea care about the cost
The cost is not upper most in the minds of either side.
Nor is mind uppermost in those who think it a good idea.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Donations have reportedly dried up for Reform, they're running on loans from Tice, so they don't have the funds to campaign effectively in the number of seats they threatened. The money will return if the Conservatives look like becoming more moderate to drag them to the right. If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
@matt_dathan Rishi Sunak confirms that Rwanda flights will NOT take off before the election.
"If I'm elected I'll get the flights off...after the election," he tells @LBC.
He says preparations for the first flights will "go on" regardless of the election.
This is after Home Office officials and lawyers warned ministers last night it was "very very unlikely" they could get flights off during the election campaign.
Open goal for Farage.
Which is yet another reason the policy is idiotic.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Sunak standing on a platform of Vote for me and I’ll waste your cash on Performative Deportation flights is quite the offer.
I doubt the people who think Rwanda is a good idea care about the cost
And the ones who do seem convinced that it won't cost much... A couple of flights and nobody will dare trying ever again.
Crossings are still on trend to be the highest ever, despite both Rwanda and poor weather this spring.
Those claiming the policy is already deterring crossings are a bit short of number based evidence.
Turns out the dangerous cycling law has been dropped.
And the Telegraph have issued a correction for the nonsense 52mph.
It will remain an issue as long as cyclists who kill pedestrians riding dangerously can't be prosecuted for that unlike motorists and motorcyclists
They can. That is why the new law is stupid and pointless. The new law does more harm than good. Take this to it's logical conclusion. Would you also like to introduce the same law for joggers as well?
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
Well on the positive side at least that nonsense will never be implemented. It would have been tricky if there were already a few hundred people there.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Lack of planning, which has been one of Rishi's hallmarks.
The reasons why May was sensible were known in March, if anyone was paying attention and not high on hopium.
I thought that he would continue to chuck MPs on the bonfire while waiting for a black swan to save him. Wonder what changed the calculation?
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
It's such an absurd and expensive policy only one flight is needed to satisfy the manifesto, then it will be quietly dropped.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Rishi is wrongly focussed on economic *news* when people's lived experience trumps tractor stats. It does not matter if the numbers go up down or sideways. What matters is the pound in your pocket, not a blip in the figures because something that happened a year ago has now dropped out of the annual rate calculation.
James O'Malley @Psythor · 3m Good luck to the broadcasters trying to schedule any election debates as there are 8pm Euro matches on…
June 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, and 30,
And July 1 and 2.
(So I predict there will be a debate on Thursday 27th)
I think debates will be 13th June and 27th on that basis
Perhaps there won't be any debates this time? Rishi is a pretty terrible debater, so not sure what he gets out of doing them and I'm sure risk adverse Starmer wouldn't mind if they didn't go ahead?
Avoiding debates with the Euro's going on through June might even have been part of Rishi's calculation to go now?
Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.
He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).
First election I voted in (2001) was announced by Tony Blair at a school, not Downing Street, from memory.
So no reason they couldn't have checked the weather and gone elsewhere.
The whole thing looked shambolic . Sunak could have just popped across the road .
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
Well on the positive side at least that nonsense will never be implemented. It would have been tricky if there were already a few hundred people there.
given half of Europe is pushing for a Rwanda style scheme it's only a matter of time till Starmer does a volte face and claims he supported it ll the while.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Sunak standing on a platform of Vote for me and I’ll waste your cash on Performative Deportation flights is quite the offer.
I doubt the people who think Rwanda is a good idea care about the cost
The cost is not upper most in the minds of either side.
Nor is mind uppermost in those who think it a good idea.
Well I think you have to break it down, I don’t think you’d find many people objecting to offshore processing and settlement of migrants in a safe willing country. The issue is that Rwanda might be willing but its safety is a big question, plus even if it is safe in the broadest sense of the term the fact it is a quasi-dictatorship where Kagamé got 93 and 98% in his last two elections should give pause.
Doubtless a tiny minority of supporters are the type who want to send migrants to the worst African shithole they can find, but I suspect far more are simply not aware of the particular objections to Rwanda in particular. Labelling everyone who supports the policy as a brain dead racist is neither a good look nor designed to persuade anyone to adjust their views.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
If he wins. So it seems safe to assume that they won't.
All that money, all that angst, all that legal chicanery... For nothing.
I mean, I'm pleased, because the policy was wrong and dishonest and never really going to happen... But what a waste.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Lack of planning, which has been one of Rishi's hallmarks.
The reasons why May was sensible were known in March, if anyone was paying attention and not high on hopium.
I thought that he would continue to chuck MPs on the bonfire while waiting for a black swan to save him. Wonder what changed the calculation?
I would guess some combination of the internal threat to his leadership and the realisation that the scope for any autumn tax cuts had completely disappeared.
I’m reflecting this morning on that Steve Bray soundtrack to the announcement. It was a clever choice by the annoying old prat but it’s the sheer stupidity of the conservatives in choosing a Downing Street announcement that I find incredible. They would have known this was likely to happen.
Forget the rain. This will have been watched by millions of non politically engaged viewers, who rarely watch live political announcements but will have seen this one, and who probably haven’t heard of Steve Bray. If they remember 1997 this may well have stirred something Proustian.
In one fell swoop CCHQ transported viewers from a miserable rainy day to that warm hopeful May morning 27 years ago. Before Iraq. Before the financial crisis, before austerity, Brexit, Covid. A more optimistic time.
I’ve certainly been lumbered with the earworm overnight. It’s an incredibly catchy tune.
I think the really telling aspect of the "wally with no brolly" stuff yesterday isn't that it was inept not to find a room, or have an umbrella (although it was). It's the total inability of Sunak to acknowledge it or go off script.
Having found himself in a less than ideal situation, most PM's would have nodded to the humour of the situation. There were lots of lame dad jokes to be made there... "thanks for coming on such a beautiful day!" "We're best placed to weather the storms ahead - as I'm proving right now!" "The Tories will rain on Labour's parade!"
What was so weird was he simply didn't acknowledge it at all - people laughed at him rather than with him as he failed to bring himself into the joke.
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Donations have reportedly dried up for Reform, they're running on loans from Tice, so they don't have the funds to campaign effectively in the number of seats they threatened. The money will return if the Conservatives look like becoming more moderate to drag them to the right. If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
The party to watch for donations and funds is the SNP. Their last accounts showed the party to be broke (or stronger than ever if you prefer the Sturgeon analysis). Things seem to have got worse since then and the never ending shadow of Branchform does not exactly help.
Swinney is naturally tetchy and moany but some of his unhappiness yesterday must come from the challenge of running a general election with no funds. The risk is that this makes the result even worse which in turn will significantly reduce a major source of revenue for the party from MPs and their expenses claims.
Nick Watt (BBC2 Newsnight Political Editor) said this is complete rubbish - the number of letters was nowhere near 52.
He also said Downing Street building couldn't be used for the announcement as Party matter - same reason why no PM crest on lectern. So had to do it outside (unless went elsewhere which would look very odd).
First election I voted in (2001) was announced by Tony Blair at a school, not Downing Street, from memory.
So no reason they couldn't have checked the weather and gone elsewhere.
The whole thing looked shambolic . Sunak could have just popped across the road .
We have lost the plot so much that it seems not to occur to politicians that the sensible place to announce something so central to our constitution as a General Election might be the House of Commons, especially now that it can be broadcast live.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
If he wins. So it seems safe to assume that they won't.
All that money, all that angst, all that legal chicanery... For nothing.
I mean, I'm pleased, because the policy was wrong and dishonest and never really going to happen... But what a waste.
We haven’t made as much progress on nhs waiting lists as I would have liked says Sunak, admitting to Today prog this is disappointing. He is literally making Labou’s case for them, which is that he’s campaigning on a record of failure
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
Well on the positive side at least that nonsense will never be implemented. It would have been tricky if there were already a few hundred people there.
given half of Europe is pushing for a Rwanda style scheme it's only a matter of time till Starmer does a volte face and claims he supported it ll the while.
Most of the European proposals are for offshore processing, which as you know are a morally and practically extremely different proposition, and one Labour could I think countenance.
Turns out the dangerous cycling law has been dropped.
And the Telegraph have issued a correction for the nonsense 52mph.
Shame. Could've done with tracking down the 52mph cyclist with Paris Olympics around the corner.
Funny, but reflective of a touchingly out-of-date view of plod. I wouldn't trust the police to be able to track him down before the LA Olympics.
A police officer pointed out on twitter than by lowering the threshold of dangerous to include errant cycling, many more driving incidents would end up classified as such - for example, driving at 26mph in 20mph limit.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Sunak standing on a platform of Vote for me and I’ll waste your cash on Performative Deportation flights is quite the offer.
I doubt the people who think Rwanda is a good idea care about the cost
The cost is not upper most in the minds of either side.
Nor is mind uppermost in those who think it a good idea.
Well I think you have to break it down, I don’t think you’d find many people objecting to offshore processing and settlement of migrants in a safe willing country. The issue is that Rwanda might be willing but its safety is a big question, plus even if it is safe in the broadest sense of the term the fact it is a quasi-dictatorship where Kagamé got 93 and 98% in his last two elections should give pause.
Doubtless a tiny minority of supporters are the type who want to send migrants to the worst African shithole they can find, but I suspect far more are simply not aware of the particular objections to Rwanda in particular. Labelling everyone who supports the policy as a brain dead racist is neither a good look nor designed to persuade anyone to adjust their views.
You weren't listening to Sunak just now insisting to Nick Robinson that his policy is perfect and that "fifteen European countries now agree with me.... by the way, Nick".
Much more of this sort of talk from Conservative MPs and I’ll revise downwards my prediction of 160 seats, which is already pretty generous.
Voters are sassy. They know that any party with a massive majority is bad. I doubt a majority of more than 40 over all.other parties. It might be more if Labour wipe out the SNP.
The voters are implacably furious. Once they decide that the Tories deserve a shellacking, there isn't really a mechanism under FPTP voting to control how big a shellacking they get.
A poorly planned campaign could see the Tories lose ground from here. If the Lib Dems, conversely, have a good campaign, then the differential swing could lose Sunak a lot more seats than even the most pessimistic forecasts.
Of course you complete miss out that Starmer and others may well be found out during the Election campaign. The Tories will lose but there are far too many blinkered eyes on here who can only think of a massive majority.
I’m reflecting this morning on that Steve Bray soundtrack to the announcement. It was a clever choice by the annoying old prat but it’s the sheer stupidity oh the conservatives in choosing the Downing Street announcement that I find incredible. They would have known this was likely to happen.
Forget the rain. This will have been watched by millions of non politically engaged viewers, who rarely watch live political announcements but will have seen this one, and who probably haven’t heard of Steve Bray. If they remember 1997 this may well have stirred something Proustian.
In one fell swoop CCHQ transported viewers from a miserable rainy day to that warm hopeful May morning 27 years ago. Before Iraq. Before the financial crisis, before austerity, Brexit, Covid. A more optimistic time.
I’ve certainly been lumbered with the earworm overnight. It’s an incredibly catchy tune.
I suspect it will be one of those Marmite moments. Lefties think its great, righties think Bray's a wanker. But it has set down the markers for the campaign. Starmer can hardly complain now if some nutjob covers him in orange paint.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Lack of planning, which has been one of Rishi's hallmarks.
The reasons why May was sensible were known in March, if anyone was paying attention and not high on hopium.
I thought that he would continue to chuck MPs on the bonfire while waiting for a black swan to save him. Wonder what changed the calculation?
I would guess some combination of the internal threat to his leadership and the realisation that the scope for any autumn tax cuts had completely disappeared.
Sky business has just said that not only no tax cuts, but the outlook is no increases in public spending and a very difficult economic future for any government
We haven’t made as much progress on nhs waiting lists as I would have liked says Sunak, admitting to Today prog this is disappointing. He is literally making Labou’s case for them, which is that he’s campaigning on a record of failure
Just maybe his government should have tried harder to settle the junior doctors dispute. Too late now.
I’m reflecting this morning on that Steve Bray soundtrack to the announcement. It was a clever choice by the annoying old prat but it’s the sheer stupidity of the conservatives in choosing a Downing Street announcement that I find incredible. They would have known this was likely to happen.
Forget the rain. This will have been watched by millions of non politically engaged viewers, who rarely watch live political announcements but will have seen this one, and who probably haven’t heard of Steve Bray. If they remember 1997 this may well have stirred something Proustian.
In one fell swoop CCHQ transported viewers from a miserable rainy day to that warm hopeful May morning 27 years ago. Before Iraq. Before the financial crisis, before austerity, Brexit, Covid. A more optimistic time.
I’ve certainly been lumbered with the earworm overnight. It’s an incredibly catchy tune.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Lack of planning, which has been one of Rishi's hallmarks.
The reasons why May was sensible were known in March, if anyone was paying attention and not high on hopium.
I thought that he would continue to chuck MPs on the bonfire while waiting for a black swan to save him. Wonder what changed the calculation?
I think the analogy is if you were on death row you’d exhaust all your appeals but once you’re at the stage where you’re only hope is “there might be an earthquake that destroys the jail and I can escape” you might as well just strap yourself to the gurney and get it over with. Rishi just got to the realisation that he’d run out of appeals and the jailbreak was never going to work.
Rishi Sunak says on BBC Breakfast that flights to Rwanda will go in July. But then caveats that with "if I'm reelected on the 5th of July, these flights will go."
It's an admission they will not go before the election.
- now that may actually be worth a few votes from the Reform voters block to the Tories. Still don’t think it gives them 30+% of the vote though
Tbh a lot of Reform voters likely want something more radical and less nuanced than planes to Rwanda, and it’s easy for Team Tice to one-up it by saying ‘deploy the fleet to the channel’ or something.
Farage announcing his candidacy behind a placard reading "strafe the boats" could sink Sunak too.
Sky
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
Well on the positive side at least that nonsense will never be implemented. It would have been tricky if there were already a few hundred people there.
given half of Europe is pushing for a Rwanda style scheme it's only a matter of time till Starmer does a volte face and claims he supported it ll the while.
Most of the European proposals are for offshore processing, which as you know are a morally and practically extremely different proposition, and one Labour could I think countenance.
Starmer will simply present a lawyerly argument, bur essentially do the same.
Irregardless of whether they could achieve a delay, the delusion of those Conservative MPs who would seek it reminds me of something from the other side of the aisle: the people in Labour who like to blame the SNP for Thatcher coming to power.
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
Swinney's point might be (and even if it wasn't, it should be) that wilfully clashing with Scottish holidays proves the contempt of London for Scotland, so vote SNP.
I think the really telling aspect of the "wally with no brolly" stuff yesterday isn't that it was inept not to find a room, or have an umbrella (although it was). It's the total inability of Sunak to acknowledge it or go off script.
Having found himself in a less than ideal situation, most PM's would have nodded to the humour of the situation. There were lots of lame dad jokes to be made there... "thanks for coming on such a beautiful day!" "We're best placed to weather the storms ahead - as I'm proving right now!" "The Tories will rain on Labour's parade!"
What was so weird was he simply didn't acknowledge it at all - people laughed at him rather than with him as he failed to bring himself into the joke.
He's just really bad at politics isn't he? Great bean-counter. Terrible politician.
Not quite to Liz Truss levels (who as well as being a terrible politician is also totally loopy) but very much with Gordon Brown on bean-counter>politician stakes... And possibly Theresa May, too (could he have an even worse election campaign than May?)
Pretty terrible from Sunak. His performance is obviously very bad - droning entitled tetchiness. But mostly it's context. He set up five tests for his premiership. He failed to pass them. Once that's the case, you really are rather buggered.
Turns out the dangerous cycling law has been dropped.
And the Telegraph have issued a correction for the nonsense 52mph.
It will remain an issue as long as cyclists who kill pedestrians riding dangerously can't be prosecuted for that unlike motorists and motorcyclists
They can. That is why the new law is stupid and pointless. The new law does more harm than good. Take this to it's logical conclusion. Would you also like to introduce the same law for joggers as well?
It is almost always possible to charge people under an existing act, but requires a case to be built. But that's expensive and time consuming so (as politicians) you being in some hurried legislation and it backfires because it's either got huge (legal) holes in it or it's so wide-ranging and draconian that you get a lot of unintended consequences.
This has happened with the Public Order (2023) Act and Just Stop Oil. By defining national infrastructure in such broad terms (A and B Roads) and disruption as anything that causes economic loss to drives (1 minute delay) the police are able to hoover up young climate activists quickly but you've inadvertently criminalised everyone from ramblers and milk delivery drivers to disabled people crossing the road.
Sunder Katwala @sundersays Reform probably aren't as ready as they would like for a July election vs October/November. But the timing of the Prime Minister's announcement gives Reform the chance to launch 90 minutes after the 6 monthly net migration statistics: the number one issue for Con/Reform switchers
Swinney's point might be (and even if it wasn't, it should be) that wilfully clashing with Scottish holidays proves the contempt of London for Scotland, so vote SNP.
Undermined by the fact that
not all schools in Scotland are actually on holiday at that time
Nippy scheduled her next Indy vote for during the Scottish school holidays
I suspect that all parties have been caught on the hop with candidates not yet selected, but perhaps REFUK more than the others as Green and LD will be running nearly everywhere with paper candidates.
I think REFUK candidates need to pay their own deposits and run their own local campaigns, so might find they are well short of the full slate promised, and this will benefit the Tories to some degree.
When will nominations close?
The other factor that could produce a hung parliament/minimal majority would be a massive Lab to Green/WPB swing and I just can't see that.
Most postal votes get returned quickly and they will be going out in just 3 weeks or so. There isn't much time for Sunak to turn it around.
I've read some convincing arguments that calling the election now is largely about wrongfooting Reform.
That assumes Reform voters are closet Tory voters. I suspect most of them are none voters who voted in 2017/9 because they wanted what they asked for in 2016 to be implemented
Not necessarily. One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
Donations have reportedly dried up for Reform, they're running on loans from Tice, so they don't have the funds to campaign effectively in the number of seats they threatened. The money will return if the Conservatives look like becoming more moderate to drag them to the right. If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
The party to watch for donations and funds is the SNP. Their last accounts showed the party to be broke (or stronger than ever if you prefer the Sturgeon analysis). Things seem to have got worse since then and the never ending shadow of Branchform does not exactly help.
Swinney is naturally tetchy and moany but some of his unhappiness yesterday must come from the challenge of running a general election with no funds. The risk is that this makes the result even worse which in turn will significantly reduce a major source of revenue for the party from MPs and their expenses claims.
Oh well.
I recall that you still believe that Humza will be on a £52k pa pension. Surely he’ll be willing to help out with a bit of it?
James O'Malley @Psythor · 3m Good luck to the broadcasters trying to schedule any election debates as there are 8pm Euro matches on…
June 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, and 30,
And July 1 and 2.
(So I predict there will be a debate on Thursday 27th)
I think debates will be 13th June and 27th on that basis
Perhaps there won't be any debates this time? Rishi is a pretty terrible debater, so not sure what he gets out of doing them and I'm sure risk adverse Starmer wouldn't mind if they didn't go ahead?
Avoiding debates with the Euro's going on through June might even have been part of Rishi's calculation to go now?
I would sooner watch 2 idiots kicking a question about than 22 idiots kicking a ball about.
Some Tory MPs were taking crumb of comfort last night they might get boost from a flight taking off at the end of the election campaign. Now Sunak confirms they won't. (And no perm sec was likely to consider that possible in an election period, given scheme likely to be scrapped)
The "wally with no brolly" motif is, I think, instructive. Obviously referencing Steve McClaren's ill-fated time as England manager, if he'd stood there holding a brolly, it would have been "the wally with the brolly mk II". If he'd had someone hold one for him, he'd have looked like some imperial figure with a lackey. If he'd delayed to wait for the rain to stop, he'd have been "afraid of a bit of weather". A gazebo flapping around him would have been criticised (and probably noisy with the rain). And so on.
When you've lost the public, you can't win no matter what you do. That's where we're at with Sunak and the Conservatives in general.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Lack of planning, which has been one of Rishi's hallmarks.
The reasons why May was sensible were known in March, if anyone was paying attention and not high on hopium.
I thought that he would continue to chuck MPs on the bonfire while waiting for a black swan to save him. Wonder what changed the calculation?
I would guess some combination of the internal threat to his leadership and the realisation that the scope for any autumn tax cuts had completely disappeared.
Sky business has just said that not only no tax cuts, but the outlook is no increases in public spending and a very difficult economic future for any government
And there we have it: the economic legacy. Thank-you very much Tories.
Inside the cabinet debate where election decision was made
The prime minister had made the decision to go to the country nearly a month ago after it became apparent voters were unwilling to give the Tories credit for any economic recovery
Rishi Sunak opened Cabinet on Wednesday afternoon by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues that he was calling a general election on July 4. The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.
The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Esther McVey, the Cabinet Office minister, said that she disagreed and argued that the Tories needed more time for the improved economic outlook to feed through to voters. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added that he was “100 per cent” behind the prime minister.
In fact, Sunak made the decision to call the election nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The original plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut.
It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.
The prime minister became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”.
The narrative that the Tories once deployed successfully against Gordon Brown — that he was squatting in No 10 — would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.
Blimey. Whoever gave Rishi that analysis is a blithering idiot or a Labour mole. Of course voters were unconvinced by a one-off improvement in economic tractor stats, which is why lower inflation and interest rates needed time to bed in, alongside pay rises, so improving living standards could be seen as permanent.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
Problem is come August the massive decrease that happened last summer with home energy bills disappears and inflation shifts from 2.3% to 3.6% (minimum) which removes the inflation side of things are going economically well. argument
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
Rishi is wrongly focussed on economic *news* when people's lived experience trumps tractor stats. It does not matter if the numbers go up down or sideways. What matters is the pound in your pocket, not a blip in the figures because something that happened a year ago has now dropped out of the annual rate calculation.
The reality for some, the boasting for others.
The current zeitgest is one of personal hardship and suffering.
Comments
Whilst it's true that the SNP helped bring down the Labour government (along with the Liberals, the Ulster Unionists, the United Ulster Unionists, the Democratic Unionists), the government had, what, a few months left before an election would need to happen?
There's no reason to think that hanging on for a few months would have helped. And really, given that this Conservative government have presided over a decade of discontent, the bear man on the street is probably grateful* for the chance to put a boot in their hoop.
*which reminds me, Swinney whining about the timing was a dumb response. Who cares about the holidays? People can get a postal vote if they're away. If they aren't motivated enough to sort that, they can't care that much about the outcome.
One theory is that internal polling showing a much larger Tory to Refuk swing were Farage to become leader, and the precipitate choice to call an election was a panicked attempt to forestall that.
Could well be bollocks, but it has a certain logic to it.
I suspect the stuff about his early life, career, beliefs, and Parliamentary progress would be very dry indeed. The bits about him opening his postbag at the tail end of that would occasionally pique one's interest.
From a common sense standpoint it is actually better to have elections in the holidays because many schools would otherwise be disrupted.
And the Telegraph have issued a correction for the nonsense 52mph.
As the dust settles (or the rain stops) I am delighted that Sunak took the decision to call the election for the 4th July
I have little doubt two factors came into play in his decision, the first and probably deciding one was the open plotting and warfare going on in his own party sapping his authority, but also he has looked into the economy for the Autumn and decided he would not be able to improve his prospects with further tax cuts and, as I think @DavidL said, yesterday's PSBR figures were horrific indicating substantial cuts in public spending and increases in taxes will become unavoidable
The final outcome will be a Starmer majority government and the conservative party sent into opposition with lots of time to come to their senses (hopefully)
Trevor Phillips on Sky has said that Starmer needs to avoid any 'bigotgate' episodes but he does expect someone on the Labour side to make an error of some form
I am just happy to watch with great interest how the next 6 weeks unfold, but certainly the spotlight on Starmer from now on through his election as PM and beyond will be fascinating
I don;'t think its very likely though. We have seen plenty of elections where this does not happen - 1997 being a case in point for the Tories, or 2019 for Labour.
In nearby Bicester & Woodstock, the Conservative candidate, Rupert Harrison, is plaintively pleading it’s a three-way marginal, citing the ever hapless Electoral Calculus.
No one with any local knowledge agrees, but if Rupert talks up Labour’s chances, that helps split the anti-Tory vote and he has a better chance of getting in.
Same will happen in Didcot & Wantage, as you say, and Henley & Thame. @ydoethur will be amused to learn Labour has selected an Ofsted inspector for their candidate in the latter, which seems courageous.
The line about seizing the agenda sounds like something Peter Mandelson would have said 30 years ago. It is doubly absurd from a party that announced an election immediately before the immigration figures were due out, and whose settlement of the blood scandal is in danger of being dropped. It hardly points to mastery of the news grid, let alone the weather forecast.
By all accounts, Labour HQ has been pretty damned clear with its candidates where they ought to be directing their energies if they want to be on the approved list in 2028/29, and that often isn't in their own seat. They are expected to go from their seat, with a carload of activists, to the nearest target.
Yes, Nick and many others will talk up their prospects on a niche website - you can't really expect them to write off seats publicly. But it's all pretty irrelevant on the ground.
I'd contrast 2017 and 2019 - Momentum and Labour at that time had a particular hatred of broadly progressive types who weren't interested in the Corbyn Kool Aid and did actively pursue that at the expense of their own interests.
Like her or not, the Sturgeon SNP was able to project a sense of bold positivity and an outward-looking, progressive independent nation.
Swinney seems to be retreating to the comfort zone of petulant whingebaggery which, while it certainly has a constituency, is not going to win many folk over.
Otherwise, we're left with the hilarious "things have started to go wrong."
https://x.com/KateEMcCann/status/1793338591113785815
Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
@matt_dathan
Rishi Sunak confirms that Rwanda flights will NOT take off before the election.
"If I'm elected I'll get the flights off...after the election," he tells @LBC.
He says preparations for the first flights will "go on" regardless of the election.
This is after Home Office officials and lawyers warned ministers last night it was "very very unlikely" they could get flights off during the election campaign.
Both of which can of course get in the fucking sea.
I really do think that yesterday’s inflation figure was the only good bit of news that Rishi had between now and November on which an election could be pinned on.
But it would have been better to go in May because I suspect troops on the ground getting the vote out isn’t going to happen
If they're not going because they'll win then it's probably because there's a massive disaster looming they'd rather dump on Labour. Thames Water financial collapse?
Which is yet another reason the policy is idiotic.
Sunak just announced Rwanda flights will leave after the election
James O'Malley
@Psythor
·
3m
Good luck to the broadcasters trying to schedule any election debates as there are 8pm Euro matches on…
June 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, and 30,
And July 1 and 2.
(So I predict there will be a debate on Thursday 27th)
I think debates will be 13th June and 27th on that basis
Those claiming the policy is already deterring crossings are a bit short of number based evidence.
https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/channel-crossings-tracker
The drenched look was awful, and his Worsted suit? He would have returned to No 10 reeking of wet dog.
I wouldn't trust the police to be able to track him down before the LA Olympics.
The reasons why May was sensible were known in March, if anyone was paying attention and not high on hopium.
I thought that he would continue to chuck MPs on the bonfire while waiting for a black swan to save him. Wonder what changed the calculation?
Avoiding debates with the Euro's going on through June might even have been part of Rishi's calculation to go now?
Doubtless a tiny minority of supporters are the type who want to send migrants to the worst African shithole they can find, but I suspect far more are simply not aware of the particular objections to Rwanda in particular. Labelling everyone who supports the policy as a brain dead racist is neither a good look nor designed to persuade anyone to adjust their views.
All that money, all that angst, all that legal chicanery... For nothing.
I mean, I'm pleased, because the policy was wrong and dishonest and never really going to happen... But what a waste.
Forget the rain. This will have been watched by millions of non politically engaged viewers, who rarely watch live political announcements but will have seen this one, and who probably haven’t heard of Steve Bray. If they remember 1997 this may well have stirred something Proustian.
In one fell swoop CCHQ transported viewers from a miserable rainy day to that warm hopeful May morning 27 years ago. Before Iraq. Before the financial crisis, before austerity, Brexit, Covid. A more optimistic time.
I’ve certainly been lumbered with the earworm overnight. It’s an incredibly catchy tune.
Having found himself in a less than ideal situation, most PM's would have nodded to the humour of the situation. There were lots of lame dad jokes to be made there... "thanks for coming on such a beautiful day!" "We're best placed to weather the storms ahead - as I'm proving right now!" "The Tories will rain on Labour's parade!"
What was so weird was he simply didn't acknowledge it at all - people laughed at him rather than with him as he failed to bring himself into the joke.
Weeeeeeee: Rishi Sunak’s election surprise
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pc5az4uwTaE
Doubtless sceptics are scouring the image to see if his hair is wet or if this was recorded earlier!
Swinney is naturally tetchy and moany but some of his unhappiness yesterday must come from the challenge of running a general election with no funds. The risk is that this makes the result even worse which in turn will significantly reduce a major source of revenue for the party from MPs and their expenses claims.
Oh well.
We haven’t made as much progress on nhs waiting lists as I would have liked says Sunak, admitting to Today prog this is disappointing. He is literally making Labou’s case for them, which is that he’s campaigning on a record of failure
Some polling milestones to look for as we enter the campaign
Labour highest 2024 49%
Labour lowest 2024 39.5% (yougov MRP) 40% regular polling
Con highest 2024 29%
Con lowest 2024 18%
LD high/low 2024 12.5%/6%
Reform 16%/4%
Green 11%/2%
Since Truss took over Labour have had 3 39%s - once in 23 with Opinium, in 22 with Kantar and Opinium, nothing below
Last Tory 30% October 2023
Since the mini budget their best is a one off 35 with Deltapoll, otherwise 32
Before Blair and Brown ruined it.
@Aiannucci
Sunak on Rwanda: ‘The plan has worked, but hasn’t happened yet.’
historically, men in this situation used a folding canopy called an umbrella
https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1793330275063419356
Starmer will simply present a lawyerly argument, bur essentially do the same.
Not quite to Liz Truss levels (who as well as being a terrible politician is also totally loopy) but very much with Gordon Brown on bean-counter>politician stakes... And possibly Theresa May, too (could he have an even worse election campaign than May?)
Pretty terrible from Sunak. His performance is obviously very bad - droning entitled tetchiness. But mostly it's context. He set up five tests for his premiership. He failed to pass them. Once that's the case, you really are rather buggered.
This has happened with the Public Order (2023) Act and Just Stop Oil. By defining national infrastructure in such broad terms (A and B Roads) and disruption as anything that causes economic loss to drives (1 minute delay) the police are able to hoover up young climate activists quickly but you've inadvertently criminalised everyone from ramblers and milk delivery drivers to disabled people crossing the road.
Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
Reform probably aren't as ready as they would like for a July election vs October/November. But the timing of the Prime Minister's announcement gives Reform the chance to launch 90 minutes after the 6 monthly net migration statistics: the number one issue for Con/Reform switchers
not all schools in Scotland are actually on holiday at that time
Nippy scheduled her next Indy vote for during the Scottish school holidays
Some Tory MPs were taking crumb of comfort last night they might get boost from a flight taking off at the end of the election campaign. Now Sunak confirms they won't. (And no perm sec was likely to consider that possible in an election period, given scheme likely to be scrapped)
When you've lost the public, you can't win no matter what you do. That's where we're at with Sunak and the Conservatives in general.
The current zeitgest is one of personal hardship and suffering.
Even if its not personally true.