It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
“… PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer…”
Oh come on! You, BJO, Casino Royale, to name but three, have been relentless in your “scrutiny” of Starmer. And you are right to do so. But the idea that you have been cancelled by the pro-SKS PB mob, as you imply, is simply ridiculous.
July election does seem bizarre doesn't it? If he wanted to get it over and done with early (and I don't blame him for that) why not do it on the day of the local elections?
He could probably have saved a couple of hundred Con Councillors?
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Perhaps we should be wary of moving the agenda on quite so fast. While the policy aspects of the a GE campaign are going to be painfully thin, the permutations of possible outcomes, and the campaigning thing are going to be a politics anorak's delight. The range of outcomes is wide (I still think NoM is a serious chance, while real data shows the Tories could be ending with about 35 seats).
The next thing to speculate about, before ending SKS's career, is the wide range of results which give uncertainty.
Simple sums. Tories lose control of the narrative if they lose 51 seats. Labour gain control of the narrative if they gain 123 seats. There is plenty of space for uncertainty between those figures.
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Yes, I agree. I fully expect the Labour government to be tremendously mediocre. I mean, look at them: Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, sweet Jesus. I'd be worried if they were governors at my daughters' schools, let alone running an entire country
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin
I think it's pathetic of him to give up. He's been found out in the top job, I'm afraid.
The California AI job offer must have had a late summer start date.
Oh god, Sunak is bound to be off to OpenAI, isn't he? Just at the moment that they start covering themselves in shit and in-fighting as their hastily-dug moat begins to collapse in on itself.
Like Clegg, only crappier. And perfect timing, as ever.
July election does seem bizarre doesn't it? If he wanted to get it over and done with early (and I don't blame him for that) why not do it on the day of the local elections?
He could probably have saved a couple of hundred Con Councillors?
Students at home in July perhaps.
Does that help? It shifts them from safe Labour university seats to being dispersed across the country in more competitive seats.
July election does seem bizarre doesn't it? If he wanted to get it over and done with early (and I don't blame him for that) why not do it on the day of the local elections?
He could probably have saved a couple of hundred Con Councillors?
Students at home in July perhaps.
So instead of being concentrated in constituencies they already don't hold they'll be a couple of hundred net votes in every marginal in the country. Spreadsheet genius strikes again.
@montie Nick is 🎯 I know of three MPs submitting no confidence votes to stop an elxn. MMMAAAAADDDDD
That is mad. As long as he gets to the Palace before Graham Brady gets a full postbag and starts the process with 1922 Sunak is PM and the advice to dissolve has to be followed.
Strictly speaking, it's a request to dissolve, not advice. Dissolution remains a royal reserve power and a PM's request can be rejected in certain circumstances - as is implied in your comment.
July election does seem bizarre doesn't it? If he wanted to get it over and done with early (and I don't blame him for that) why not do it on the day of the local elections?
He could probably have saved a couple of hundred Con Councillors?
Students at home in July perhaps.
Will probably improve Labour chances in Brighton Pavilion....
@patrickwintour If Sunak is calling an election and sending his battered troops into battle on July 4, he will be doing the likely new PM an additional favour. The first major international event to be hosted by the newly elected government is a meeting of the European Political Community, a Macron inspired event that assembles roughly 50 European leaders inside and outside the EU. It is in the diary for July 18 at Blenheim Palace. As such it will be a chance for Starmer to speed date Europe, and more importantly to signal the UK is seeking to put relations with Europe on a new footing.
July election does seem bizarre doesn't it? If he wanted to get it over and done with early (and I don't blame him for that) why not do it on the day of the local elections?
He could probably have saved a couple of hundred Con Councillors?
Students at home in July perhaps.
So instead of being concentrated in constituencies they already don't hold they'll be a couple of hundred net votes in every marginal in the country. Spreadsheet genius strikes again.
Or, alternatively, moving from Uxbridge to Shire Central. But I accept the other way round is more likely.
New - Sources tell me July 4 is the going to be the date of the next election. Now confirmed to folk internally.
If he had July in mind, why didn't he go for May anyway when he could have potentially saved hundreds of councillors?
And if he didn't, what has changed his mind now?
Honestly, the man's so inept at politics it's actually embarrassing. He makes Hilary Clinton look like Franklin D. Roosevelt.
He won't care about the councillors (and it probably wouldn't have saved that many anyway - the GE polling is much worse for the Tories than the locals NEV), but it would have avoided going into this election off the back of a pretty crappy narrative about Labour's massive lead in the polls being right.
Maybe not... she's got another 2 days to go - and the last day will be the most obviously inflammatory (postmasters reps asking questions - so will likely be much more directly confrontational judging from the experience of previous witnesses)
Sunak has been offered a job he can't refuse, but they need him to start in September. So here we go, snap election, get demolished, a nice holiday and away to California.
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing. 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year. 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
49% of Democrats think the USA is currently in recession. 61% of Democrats think that inflation is currently increasing.
Apparently there's a 'vibecession' phenomenon.
Now this might be the fault of Sleepy Joe - or Trump or Brexit - or it might just be that people's expectations are increasing faster than which any government can meet.
And likely happening in other Western countries as well.
We live for this stuff. Looking forward to the next month and a half on PB.
It’s incredible - really incredible - to me how little a lot of people care about politics. Round the office today; so little curiousity, even less understanding.
We live for this stuff. Looking forward to the next month and a half on PB.
It’s incredible - really incredible - to me how little a lot of people care about politics. Round the office today; so little curiousity, even less understanding.
I know. It is pretty depressing at times. Vast numbers of people could barely give a fuck.
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Yes, I agree. I fully expect the Labour government to be tremendously mediocre. I mean, look at them: Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, sweet Jesus. I'd be worried if they were governors at my daughters' schools, let alone running an entire country
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin
Im on a shorter period, too many "events".
I think they'll last longer than that. They'll inherit a much more benign situation than many imagine: inflation returning to pre-covid levels*, falling energy prices, an economy is much better health than it's painted. Some stability implied by a government with a working majority and five years to go. The SNP on the wane for now. A happy broadcast media. They'll try to stuff it up, but Starmer is no Corbyn even if he did sit on his front bench, and there's only so much damage that politicians can do in the short term if there is a generally fair wind blowing. I give them a whole term of never being more than 5 points behind in the polls.
*which reminds me, @BartholomewRoberts was always on about inflation falling back again - I haven't seen him recently - is he still around?
Like Sky Sports Cricket Commentators that got a rather brutal overhaul a few years ago, post-COVID it showed that large number of the media need the same treatment. Instead all the duffers are still there.
New - Sources tell me July 4 is the going to be the date of the next election. Now confirmed to folk internally.
If he had July in mind, why didn't he go for May anyway when he could have potentially saved hundreds of councillors?
And if he didn't, what has changed his mind now?
Honestly, the man's so inept at politics it's actually embarrassing. He makes Hilary Clinton look like Franklin D. Roosevelt.
He won't care about the councillors (and it probably wouldn't have saved that many anyway - the GE polling is much worse for the Tories than the locals NEV), but it would have avoided going into this election off the back of a pretty crappy narrative about Labour's massive lead in the polls being right.
Despite experts saying the local votes mean a NOM.
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing. 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year. 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
49% of Democrats think the USA is currently in recession. 61% of Democrats think that inflation is currently increasing.
Apparently there's a 'vibecession' phenomenon.
Now this might be the fault of Sleepy Joe - or Trump or Brexit - or it might just be that people's expectations are increasing faster than which any government can meet.
And likely happening in other Western countries as well.
People are still shocked by the big price increases post COVID. A lot of people are saying “I can’t afford to do X anymore”.
@patrickwintour If Sunak is calling an election and sending his battered troops into battle on July 4, he will be doing the likely new PM an additional favour. The first major international event to be hosted by the newly elected government is a meeting of the European Political Community, a Macron inspired event that assembles roughly 50 European leaders inside and outside the EU. It is in the diary for July 18 at Blenheim Palace. As such it will be a chance for Starmer to speed date Europe, and more importantly to signal the UK is seeking to put relations with Europe on a new footing.
"Blenheim" seems an odd choice for a summit of european chumminess and friendship.
We live for this stuff. Looking forward to the next month and a half on PB.
It’s incredible - really incredible - to me how little a lot of people care about politics. Round the office today; so little curiousity, even less understanding.
Yes, it amazes me that turnout is as high as 67% at general elections.
New - Sources tell me July 4 is the going to be the date of the next election. Now confirmed to folk internally.
If he had July in mind, why didn't he go for May anyway when he could have potentially saved hundreds of councillors?
And if he didn't, what has changed his mind now?
Honestly, the man's so inept at politics it's actually embarrassing. He makes Hilary Clinton look like Franklin D. Roosevelt.
He won't care about the councillors (and it probably wouldn't have saved that many anyway - the GE polling is much worse for the Tories than the locals NEV), but it would have avoided going into this election off the back of a pretty crappy narrative about Labour's massive lead in the polls being right.
Despite experts saying the local votes mean a NOM.
Which is what I am expecting (still).
But I'm reminded of Tony King's comment in 2000:
'Remember, the polls ask how people would vote in a general election. Many other factors come into a local election.'
We live for this stuff. Looking forward to the next month and a half on PB.
It’s incredible - really incredible - to me how little a lot of people care about politics. Round the office today; so little curiousity, even less understanding.
Yes, it amazes me that turnout is as high as 67% at general elections.
In reality, somewhat higher, given that a proportion of those on the register will have died or emigrated since the register was done, and there are still people on registers for more than one location.
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing. 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year. 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
49% of Democrats think the USA is currently in recession. 61% of Democrats think that inflation is currently increasing.
Apparently there's a 'vibecession' phenomenon.
Now this might be the fault of Sleepy Joe - or Trump or Brexit - or it might just be that people's expectations are increasing faster than which any government can meet.
And likely happening in other Western countries as well.
People are still shocked by the big price increases post COVID. A lot of people are saying “I can’t afford to do X anymore”.
This is how most people measure prosperity.
I posted a chart from WSJ the other day that showed increase in family wealth is now 0% over the Biden presidency and heading downwards rapidly. Those who hold assets are doing well, those who don't have lost a huge amount of buying power.
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
“… PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer…”
Oh come on! You, BJO, Casino Royale, to name but three, have been relentless in your “scrutiny” of Starmer. And you are right to do so. But the idea that you have been cancelled by the pro-SKS PB mob, as you imply, is simply ridiculous.
Sunak has been offered a job he can't refuse, but they need him to start in September. So here we go, snap election, get demolished, a nice holiday and away to California.
Why else would he go now?
Is he really going to piss everyone off and take a job with a Silicon Valley tech company.
Leon Posts: 47,914 3:07PM edited 3:08PM A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
New - Sources tell me July 4 is the going to be the date of the next election. Now confirmed to folk internally.
If he had July in mind, why didn't he go for May anyway when he could have potentially saved hundreds of councillors?
And if he didn't, what has changed his mind now?
Honestly, the man's so inept at politics it's actually embarrassing. He makes Hilary Clinton look like Franklin D. Roosevelt.
He won't care about the councillors (and it probably wouldn't have saved that many anyway - the GE polling is much worse for the Tories than the locals NEV), but it would have avoided going into this election off the back of a pretty crappy narrative about Labour's massive lead in the polls being right.
Despite experts saying the local votes mean a NOM.
No experts are saying this. People who are saying this are, by definition, not experts.
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Yes, I agree. I fully expect the Labour government to be tremendously mediocre. I mean, look at them: Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, sweet Jesus. I'd be worried if they were governors at my daughters' schools, let alone running an entire country
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin
Im on a shorter period, too many "events".
I think they'll last longer than that. They'll inherit a much more benign situation than many imagine: inflation returning to pre-covid levels*, falling energy prices, an economy is much better health than it's painted. Some stability implied by a government with a working majority and five years to go. The SNP on the wane for now. A happy broadcast media. They'll try to stuff it up, but Starmer is no Corbyn even if he did sit on his front bench, and there's only so much damage that politicians can do in the short term if there is a generally fair wind blowing. I give them a whole term of never being more than 5 points behind in the polls.
*which reminds me, @BartholomewRoberts was always on about inflation falling back again - I haven't seen him recently - is he still around?
Benign? It's the worst economic inheritance since WW2. And the state of the country's public assets is absolutely dire, everything needs fixing.
Even inflation is only temporarily down to 2.3% - the fall in energy prices 12 months ago will push it back up above 3% by August. That and the fact that there is literally nothing there to fund a pre-election Autumn giveaway is why he is going now.
Leon Posts: 47,914 3:07PM edited 3:08PM A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
Yes, you are important, and we all love you. Now go back to bed.
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Yes, I agree. I fully expect the Labour government to be tremendously mediocre. I mean, look at them: Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, sweet Jesus. I'd be worried if they were governors at my daughters' schools, let alone running an entire country
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin
Im on a shorter period, too many "events".
I think they'll last longer than that. They'll inherit a much more benign situation than many imagine: inflation returning to pre-covid levels*, falling energy prices, an economy is much better health than it's painted. Some stability implied by a government with a working majority and five years to go. The SNP on the wane for now. A happy broadcast media. They'll try to stuff it up, but Starmer is no Corbyn even if he did sit on his front bench, and there's only so much damage that politicians can do in the short term if there is a generally fair wind blowing. I give them a whole term of never being more than 5 points behind in the polls.
*which reminds me, @BartholomewRoberts was always on about inflation falling back again - I haven't seen him recently - is he still around?
There has been better economic news which should help the next govt, but there still a long way to go until were out of the mire. There's not much room for doing much. I suspect we'll just have 5 years of pointless headline driven legislation. The big opportunity for Starmer is the opposition needs to sort itself out.
However so far Starmer has been lucky, but Luck has a tendancy to bugger off just when you need it most. So we'll get to see just how good SKS is sooner rather than later imo.
Leon Posts: 47,914 3:07PM edited 3:08PM A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
Leon Posts: 47,914 3:07PM edited 3:08PM A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
Yes, you are important, and we all love you. Now go back to bed.
Just havin a bit of fun, like
However it is true to say that my friend really nailed this, down to the timing of the announcement, so I believe that he does have a contact in Downing St. However, he won't have one for long....
New - Sources tell me July 4 is the going to be the date of the next election. Now confirmed to folk internally.
If he had July in mind, why didn't he go for May anyway when he could have potentially saved hundreds of councillors?
And if he didn't, what has changed his mind now?
Honestly, the man's so inept at politics it's actually embarrassing. He makes Hilary Clinton look like Franklin D. Roosevelt.
He won't care about the councillors (and it probably wouldn't have saved that many anyway - the GE polling is much worse for the Tories than the locals NEV), but it would have avoided going into this election off the back of a pretty crappy narrative about Labour's massive lead in the polls being right.
Despite experts saying the local votes mean a NOM.
Which is what I am expecting (still).
But I'm reminded of Tony King's comment in 2000:
'Remember, the polls ask how people would vote in a general election. Many other factors come into a local election.'
My view is that the local elections don't point to NOM, but do point to the Economist's projection as being in the right ballpark.
Comments
Shame this inquiry has been overtaken by events.
About fucking time.
To misquote Napoleon's famous dictum, she may not be brilliant but she is lucky.
Oh come on! You, BJO, Casino Royale, to name but three, have been relentless in your “scrutiny” of Starmer. And you are right to do so. But the idea that you have been cancelled by the pro-SKS PB mob, as you imply, is simply ridiculous.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-567016/Walk-die-The-terrible-decision-Lembit-Opik-faced-broke-paragliding-middle-nowhere.html
Relief that at last the country can have its say
The 5 July, 1945 General Election
-Labour ahead in the polls
-Conservatives made leadership the issue
-Conservatives crushed
-Labour majority of 145
I was just checking how early I can say "A new dawn has broken..."
The next thing to speculate about, before ending SKS's career, is the wide range of results which give uncertainty.
Simple sums. Tories lose control of the narrative if they lose 51 seats. Labour gain control of the narrative if they gain 123 seats. There is plenty of space for uncertainty between those figures.
Here's the ITV news correspondent
Harry Horton
@harry_horton
·
13m
At 5pm today, PM Rishi Sunak will announce a general election for July 4th.
https://x.com/harry_horton/status/1793301720627298782
Like Clegg, only crappier. And perfect timing, as ever.
He is actually doing the country a service by this noble sacrifice of effing off early, to avoid a wasted six months.
I can accept him receiving a knighthood following his defeat on that basis.
If Sunak is calling an election and sending his battered troops into battle on July 4, he will be doing the likely new PM an additional favour. The first major international event to be hosted by the newly elected government is a meeting of the European Political Community, a Macron inspired event that assembles roughly 50 European leaders inside and outside the EU. It is in the diary for July 18 at Blenheim Palace. As such it will be a chance for Starmer to speed date Europe, and more importantly to signal the UK is seeking to put relations with Europe on a new footing.
https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1djGXNobDnExZ
Rishi Sunak is a record breaker.
He's achieved absolutely nothing.
Why else would he go now?
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden
49% of Democrats think the USA is currently in recession.
61% of Democrats think that inflation is currently increasing.
Apparently there's a 'vibecession' phenomenon.
Now this might be the fault of Sleepy Joe - or Trump or Brexit
And likely happening in other Western countries as well.
It’s incredible - really incredible - to me how little a lot of people care about politics. Round the office today; so little curiousity, even less understanding.
They'll try to stuff it up, but Starmer is no Corbyn even if he did sit on his front bench, and there's only so much damage that politicians can do in the short term if there is a generally fair wind blowing. I give them a whole term of never being more than 5 points behind in the polls.
*which reminds me, @BartholomewRoberts was always on about inflation falling back again - I haven't seen him recently - is he still around?
Christ, Beth Rigby is rubbish.
Will this clash with the Iranian election?
If so, that's tragic. Think of all the betting opportunities we'll be missing out on there.
Like Sky Sports Cricket Commentators that got a rather brutal overhaul a few years ago, post-COVID it showed that large number of the media need the same treatment. Instead all the duffers are still there.
This is how most people measure prosperity.
But I'm reminded of Tony King's comment in 2000:
'Remember, the polls ask how people would vote in a general election. Many other factors come into a local election.'
EDIT: Worst of it probably sliding south of the river.
Clearly he thinks he has to go now, why is something we find out later I guess
Mourn on the Fourth of July?
Bindependence Day?
Leon Posts: 47,914
3:07PM edited 3:08PM
A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
April borrowing figures just announced were above forecast.
(No offence Alan, but I'm not going to say who it was.)
Even inflation is only temporarily down to 2.3% - the fall in energy prices 12 months ago will push it back up above 3% by August. That and the fact that there is literally nothing there to fund a pre-election Autumn giveaway is why he is going now.
However so far Starmer has been lucky, but Luck has a tendancy to bugger off just when you need it most. So we'll get to see just how good SKS is sooner rather than later imo.
Scott_xP Posts:
11:02AM
@JasonGroves1
Westminster rumour mill in overdrive that Sunak is about to call election for July 4.
I have the bragging rights.
However it is true to say that my friend really nailed this, down to the timing of the announcement, so I believe that he does have a contact in Downing St. However, he won't have one for long....
Might they move it inside?