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The pressure could be back on Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    edited May 4

    Parker winning has really punctured Sunak’s balloon.

    Houchen his only real win in a sea of losses. Nearly 500 councillors down, and thin gruel where they did hold on.

    A great cycle for all the others.

    Greens made big strides - including Stroud, Bristol and Oxford.
    LibDems had a solid if unspectacular election, but one fought not on their best territory in the main. Dorset is a big prize.
    Labour won where they needed to, real signs that they can get a decent majority. Good performances in Cannock, Tamworth, Aldershot, Shoreham and Nuneaton will provide a big fillip, even before the mayoral successes.

    Houchen Remember had such a swing against, it brought every Tory constituencies in his patch into play and a likely loss.

    And still Sunak went there, to own the result.

    And that moment was Tory highlight of the weekend.
    Probably their best result was Harlow. Hard working, centrist MP, and practical (generally):local councillors.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    Scott_xP said:

    Bye, bye Rishi, bye, bye...

    @JamesTapsfield

    Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter

    The whole mood has suddenly shifted with one 1k vote loss.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    edited May 4
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.

    But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
    As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.

    But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
    As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
    Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Kicking myself that I didn't cash out on Hall when she was 4/1. Live and learn.

    I probably owe @IanB2 on this because he made me think twice about taking profit.
    You did well to make money, and deserve credit for it. But you did so by rescuing a bad bet because others turned out to have been more foolish still. Which, of course, is exactly what I did having backed Remain and Clinton, back then. A bad bet can be rescued provided you realise your mistake before others do.

    Had you said from the outset that backing Hall was a trading bet, anticipating a wobble between polls closing and the count when you could cash out at a profit, then you’d deserve massive credit for calling it exactly right. But claiming the Hall bet was value, when she never had a snowballs of winning, wasn’t a good call.
    We've been over this ground before earlier today.

    She was value at the price available. At that stage I didn't know if I was going to hold or trade.

    The fact she was value was enough for me to buy.
    I suggest it is worth distinguishing between a bet made because you think the odds of the outcome are too long and a bet made because you think events will transpire to make other punters pile into an essentially losing position. They really are different things, even though, now and again, one can turn into the other.
    I think people were rather foolish at any time to think Hall could actually win. I haven't been by this site of late but I could have told you that from actually living in London.

    I think the Tories have really bought into this idea - and I've seen it here too - that Khan is really despised and hated in London. He really isn't.
    I live in London too, but London is a huge place of nudging 10 million people. Since the early hours of the 24th June 2016 I’ve avoided confidently predicting anything is in the bag, for good.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.

    But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
    As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
    Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
    Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    edited May 4
    dixiedean said:

    Mad Nad has the answer:

    INSIDE WESTMINSTER: How 'coiled mamba' Boris could come back to save the Tories from total annihilation - even though Rishi 'hasn't picked up the phone' | Daily Mail Online

    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1786814555680592148

    Coiled mamba?
    It's like Freud never died and is spinning in his grave.
    Even coiled mamba’s remember their passport.

    Or re-mamba
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,756
    Scott_xP said:

    Bye, bye Rishi, bye, bye...

    @JamesTapsfield

    Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter

    The results are appalling. At the bottom end of expectations. Buthad they managed the messaging well they could have ridden it out - suggest they would do even worse and then "overperform".

    Instead we have had:
    That asshat Sunak fly to Teesside to rant next to his rosette-phobic mayor that the result proves they are winning
    The party chairman embarrass himself and the party on an endless idiotic media round
    Hacks told they had won London when they got absolutely battered
    Street runs as an independent and still loses

    Won't be at all surprised if it all kicks off.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Times Radio: majority could be 500 votes or less.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,362

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660

    Scott_xP said:

    Bye, bye Rishi, bye, bye...

    @JamesTapsfield

    Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter

    The whole mood has suddenly shifted with one 1k vote loss.
    Madness. Vibes based politics. I suspect Rishi is safe anyway but hopefully limping towards an election without the support of the party.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    West Midlands Mayoral Election Results
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh5cTbMv8eQ

    Nothing happening right now, but set up for announcement when there's something to announce.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    1508 votes! Lol
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356

    dixiedean said:

    Mad Nad has the answer:

    INSIDE WESTMINSTER: How 'coiled mamba' Boris could come back to save the Tories from total annihilation - even though Rishi 'hasn't picked up the phone' | Daily Mail Online

    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1786814555680592148

    Coiled mamba?
    It's like Freud never died and is spinning in his grave.
    Even coiled mamba’s remember their passport.

    Or re-mamba
    Perhaps he lost it at a COBRA meeting?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Ghedebrav said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just a 1,000 votes in it!

    Been out for drinks with neighbours - is that 1,000 votes after a recount or are we now going to have a recount?
    "Just 1,000 votes in it," say Labour sources

    Nick Eardley
    Political correspondent

    "My sources say Labour may have won this race by as little as 1,000 votes.

    "But they’re confident they’ve won."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609732
    If there's only 1,000 votes in it from an electorate of around 3 million, one could argue that there really ought to have been a recount in every area, not just one.
    Really? I mean, I get that it’s a tight margin but I can’t imagine turnout was much higher than 40% so it’s certainly not 3m, and also the counts being done by constituency are not particularly close in each case.

    Edit: turnout was just under 30% I believe.
    And also population of 3m =/= electorate of 3m.

    Again, a difference of a thousand or so *is* tight in an election where c. 600k voted (albeit now under fptp less than that for the two leading candidates). But one area has already been recounted.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Announcement imminent.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304

    Scott_xP said:

    Bye, bye Rishi, bye, bye...

    @JamesTapsfield

    Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter

    The results are appalling. At the bottom end of expectations. Buthad they managed the messaging well they could have ridden it out - suggest they would do even worse and then "overperform".

    Instead we have had:
    That asshat Sunak fly to Teesside to rant next to his rosette-phobic mayor that the result proves they are winning
    The party chairman embarrass himself and the party on an endless idiotic media round
    Hacks told they had won London when they got absolutely battered
    Street runs as an independent and still loses

    Won't be at all surprised if it all kicks off.
    HY said exactly the same thing about the messaging disaster earlier.

    And there’s no creature more loyal to its party upon this earth, than a HY.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Declaration time!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mad Nad has the answer:

    INSIDE WESTMINSTER: How 'coiled mamba' Boris could come back to save the Tories from total annihilation - even though Rishi 'hasn't picked up the phone' | Daily Mail Online

    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1786814555680592148

    Coiled mamba?
    It's like Freud never died and is spinning in his grave.
    Even coiled mamba’s remember their passport.

    Or re-mamba
    Perhaps he lost it at a COBRA meeting?
    Did he attend one?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006

    1508 votes! Lol

    Where did you get that figure from?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.

    But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
    As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
    Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
    Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
    Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.

    But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
    As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
    Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
    Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
    Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
    Musselburgh has a train station!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    SKY say maj 1000 to 1500

    BBC LT 2000
    Times Radio 500

    500 would seem like recount territory but over 1000 not so much

    Anyway apparently Tories are conceeding and no further request for recount so think Times is wrong?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Andy_JS said:

    1508 votes! Lol

    Where did you get that figure from?
    The result! The declaration footage is a couple minutes behind I think, it's already out on twitter
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    @TomLarkinSky

    With Andy Street's loss, the locals starting to look like a real shoeing for the Conservatives now:

    ❌ Lost half the seats they held
    ❌ Lost 10/11 mayoral races
    ❌ Lost control of 12 councils
    ❌ Lost by a mile in Blackpool South
    ❌ Lost to Lib Dems on council seats won


    Last Thursday was Richi's best date to call the election. The decision is no longer his.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Idiots shouting over the result.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
    A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.

    Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.

    See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Street was far from the worst of the Tories, but that's the way it goes. The good get chucked out with the bad.

    He has more time to spend with his family I suppose.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    edited May 4

    Mad Nad has the answer:...'coiled mamba' Boris...

    Only trouble is, he isn't an MP and to become an MP he'd need to fight a by election and in by election terms there are no safe seats in the country, so.. no, sorry Nads. Boris ain't riding to the rescue this time.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,756

    I've had a very nice day out with family in Inverness. Heard that Khaaaaan has smashed it in London and wondered just how miserable the Tories must be after desperately ramping that they would win.

    And now we have this. Which is :o

    So, the only chink of light for the Tories is Ben Houchen. Who so refused to be a Tory that he wouldn't even wear a rosette at the count or giving his victory speech where he said he looked forward to working with Starmer. A victory where the swing was so large that all NE Tories will be gone at the GE.

    And they say Sunak is now safe? Maaaaaarvelous. Though surely the election will now be as late as possible. Listen to Tory shills - the electorate are stupid, they don't understand all the good we are doing them, we "nearly won" (translation: lost), tax cuts and economic good times are ahead.

    12th December or 23rd January.

    Had many nice days in Inverness including our first night, plus the location for our Loch Ness private hire cabin cruising which created lots of memories for our children and recently our grandchildren

    IMHO next election date 14th November or 12th December
    You will be pleased to know that the River Ness walk is still beautiful.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646

    Andy_JS said:

    1508 votes! Lol

    Where did you get that figure from?
    The result! The declaration footage is a couple minutes behind I think, it's already out on twitter
    Perhaps a link would be nice.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    1508 votes! Lol

    Where did you get that figure from?
    The result! The declaration footage is a couple minutes behind I think, it's already out on twitter
    Perhaps a link would be nice.
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1786847054221787138?s=19
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    Foxy said:

    Street was far from the worst of the Tories, but that's the way it goes. The good get chucked out with the bad.

    He has more time to spend with his family I suppose.

    Labour or Lib Dems should have a chat with him.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Bye, bye Rishi, bye, bye...

    @JamesTapsfield

    Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter

    The whole mood has suddenly shifted with one 1k vote loss.
    Madness. Vibes based politics. I suspect Rishi is safe anyway but hopefully limping towards an election without the support of the party.
    It’s surely too late to swap Penny in there? Just the madness of that instead of calling the General Election the voters want would lead to a worse result on its own.

    Penny herself publicly ruled it out on Thursday, in her own bizarre way “You are not installing me in Number 10 like a new boiler.”
    Did anyone miss that?

    She’d turn out to be Caligula or Nero that one.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Richard Parker sobbing at the Podium
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459


    Results
    Labour,
    Richard Parker
    Total votes
    225,590
    Share
    37.8%

    Conservative,
    Andy Street
    Total votes
    224,082
    Share
    37.5%

    Independent,
    Akhmed Yakoob
    Total votes
    69,621
    Share
    11.7%

    Reform UK,
    Elaine Williams
    Total votes
    34,471
    Share
    5.8%

    Green,
    Siobhan Harper-Nunes
    Total votes
    31,036
    Share
    5.2%

    Liberal Democrat,
    Sunny Virk
    Total votes
    12,176
    Share
    2.0%

    Mayoral election turnout
    Registered voters:
    2,018,541
    Turnout:
    30%
    Change since last election:
    -1.60%
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    edited May 4
    Scott_xP said:

    Bye, bye Rishi, bye, bye...

    @JamesTapsfield

    Some Tory MPs furious at No10 'bullshitting for 48 hours' that Susan Hall would win and Andy Street would be 'fine'. 'Rishi is definitely in play,' says one vowing to send no-confidence letter

    As predicted by me yesterday morning. Don't rule out the Tories rolling the dice one last time (but it won't be Boris for the obvious reason he's not an MP and isn't likely to be this side of Election 24)
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,464

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers
    Woke is crystallised stupidity. It's up there with tulip fever, trephinning, and carrying a head scratcher because your three foot powdered wig is full of lice. It's a vulgarity of our age. That's how it will be looked upon.

    You can choose to go with it because everyone else is, or you can step back from it and realise 'Oh, that's a bit fucking daft'. Go with it, and you hand the right wing the moral and intellectual high ground, as we've seen over trans.
    You’re dying out guys. Sorry. But your day is past.

    The country is itching to move on from the older, gammon and boomer, men.

    A bright new, pink, open dawn approaches. I am celebrating.
    And therein lies the seeds of your own future destruction.
    I don’t think people will embrace self-hatred.

    At the heart of “woke” is the belief that the West is rotten at heart and the past 250 years has been a story of hideous Western oppression. The United States is the Evil Empire.

    Whereas, nobody in their right mind would want to live in the world of pre-US hegemony. Nor, embrace the alternative hegemonies.

    Put bluntly, if you were to ask a serious historian, “when was the best time to be born”, they’d say “yesterday.”
    There's also something about wallowing in identity groups that both reinforces them and polarises them, I think. And that's not healthy.

    Fundamentally, it stops us looking at and treating it each other as individuals and provides an excuse for prejudgement.
    But Brexit was about identity, wasn't it? Leavers spoke about "us" and "Britain" while Remainers were more concerned with the individual liberties that would be lost, or at least made more difficult.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited May 4

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.

    But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
    As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
    Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
    Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
    Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
    Musselburgh has a train station!
    But not at the High Street, which is what I'm thinking of. Not the old workhouse on the outskirts. Or Monktonhall ex-Colliery.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    GIN1138 said:

    Mad Nad has the answer:...'coiled mamba' Boris...

    Nads, that is one fatty coil... :)

    Only trouble is, he isn't an MP and to become an MP he'd need to fight a by election and in by election terms there are no safe seats in the country, so.. no, sorry Nads. Boris ain't riding to the rescue this time.
    That article wasn’t written by Nadine Dorries, she just tweeted a link to it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    Andy_JS said:

    Confirmation that Andy Street has nearly won according to Andrew Mitchell.

    Andrew Mitchell is such a ****** pleb! :D
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Andy_JS said:

    Confirmation that Andy Street has nearly won according to Andrew Mitchell.

    So does Starmer not have to resign then? He will be relieved.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
    A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.

    Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.

    See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
    Something to come in Wales, though this time Labour will catch it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    1,508 votes, a wee bit higher than we thought!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    A Tory clean sweep on Salford Council tomorrow could yet save the weekend...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    Andy_JS said:

    Confirmation that Andy Street has nearly won according to Andrew Mitchell.

    ... Starmer under threat.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mad Nad has the answer:...'coiled mamba' Boris...

    Nads, that is one fatty coil... :)

    Only trouble is, he isn't an MP and to become an MP he'd need to fight a by election and in by election terms there are no safe seats in the country, so.. no, sorry Nads. Boris ain't riding to the rescue this time.
    That article wasn’t written by Nadine Dorries, she just tweeted a link to it
    She was probably being sarcastic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356



    Results
    Labour,
    Richard Parker
    Total votes
    225,590
    Share
    37.8%

    Conservative,
    Andy Street
    Total votes
    224,082
    Share
    37.5%

    Independent,
    Akhmed Yakoob
    Total votes
    69,621
    Share
    11.7%

    Reform UK,
    Elaine Williams
    Total votes
    34,471
    Share
    5.8%

    Green,
    Siobhan Harper-Nunes
    Total votes
    31,036
    Share
    5.2%

    Liberal Democrat,
    Sunny Virk
    Total votes
    12,176
    Share
    2.0%

    Mayoral election turnout
    Registered voters:
    2,018,541
    Turnout:
    30%
    Change since last election:
    -1.60%

    5.8% for Reform in the West Midlands suggests to me that will be about their figure in a GE.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Foxy said:

    Street was far from the worst of the Tories, but that's the way it goes. The good get chucked out with the bad.

    He has more time to spend with his family I suppose.

    I hope he comes to the Commons. The Tories desperately need some new talent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Street outperformed the council elections, did well tbh any other Tory would have lost by more.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,043
    Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.

    But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
    As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
    Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
    Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
    Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
    Musselburgh has a train station!
    But not at the High Street, which is what I'm thinking of. Not the old workhouse on the outskirts. Or Monktonhall ex-Colliery.
    Musselburgh to Waverley (by car) = 7 miles
    Old Oak Common to Euston (by car) = 7 miles
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
    A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.

    Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.

    See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
    I honestly think I'm not alone among Londoners in thinking that ULEZ is the one great thing that Khan has done. Personally, I'm mildly asthmatic and have an irregular heart rhythm. Why would I not want to breath less polluted air?
    I wonder what the party lines were over the Clean Air Act of 1956?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    ...
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
    A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.

    Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.

    See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
    I honestly think I'm not alone among Londoners in thinking that ULEZ is the one great thing that Khan has done. Personally, I'm mildly asthmatic and have an irregular heart rhythm. Why would I not want to breath less polluted air?
    But what about all the red-faced angry people who don't live in London who imagine they aren't allowed to drive their vanity panzers through London? Who shall speak for this poor oppressed group of beaudied downtrodden?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631



    Results
    Labour,
    Richard Parker
    Total votes
    225,590
    Share
    37.8%

    Conservative,
    Andy Street
    Total votes
    224,082
    Share
    37.5%

    Independent,
    Akhmed Yakoob
    Total votes
    69,621
    Share
    11.7%

    Reform UK,
    Elaine Williams
    Total votes
    34,471
    Share
    5.8%

    Green,
    Siobhan Harper-Nunes
    Total votes
    31,036
    Share
    5.2%

    Liberal Democrat,
    Sunny Virk
    Total votes
    12,176
    Share
    2.0%

    Mayoral election turnout
    Registered voters:
    2,018,541
    Turnout:
    30%
    Change since last election:
    -1.60%

    70k votes for Galloway backed Yakoob.

    Street and the Tories have got a lucky close second might be the truth.
    That would appear so
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    edited May 4
    CatMan said:

    Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?

    Good job we won't know.
    The hospitals would have been overwhelmed with those injuring themselves with uncontrollable laughter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    CatMan said:

    Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?

    More likely a larger margin under the old system with second preferences.

    There would be fewer Tory PCCs too.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646
    DM_Andy said:

    Is this the most stupid 'analysis' of these elections?

    Sadiq Khan has been re-elected as the Mayor of London with the smallest mandate since the office was created 24 years ago, analysis from the Electoral Reform Society shows.

    The Labour politician won 43.8% of the vote, which was enough to secure him a third term under the new First Past the Post system.

    If the rules are changed to not require a 50%+1 mandate then is very likely to be smaller.
    I'm glad you caught that: I'd've missed it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    🌹are back.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,149
    edited May 4
    ULEZ in London is viewed as such:

    "meh" - I don't drive
    "great" - the air is cleaner
    "it's annoying" - but I deal with it

    The Tories do not understand this. They confused randomers outside London with those living in London.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
    I must admit to being worried, when hearing reports that London could be very close, the Tories have dragged this country to the sewers, and when it comes to Khan, let's call it for what it is, racism, the main reason some people dislike Khan is the colour of his skin/religion. Sadiq Khan is the not the best thing since sliced bread, but is definitely an improvement on the previous London Mayor, and certainly doesn't deserve the vitriol thrown at him, imo, hope has beaten hate, long may it continue
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646

    Richard Parker sobbing at the Podium

    I cannot for the life of me stop thinking of him as the tiger in "Life of Pi"
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    "Tories in crisis after Andy Street loses his seat as West Midlands mayor, being beaten into submission by Labour - in a second key victory for Keir Starmer after Sadiq Khan beat Conservative rival in London landslide”

    Daily Mail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13383225/andy-street-loses-west-midlands-mayor-election-richard-parker.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 4

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mad Nad has the answer:...'coiled mamba' Boris...

    Nads, that is one fatty coil... :)

    Only trouble is, he isn't an MP and to become an MP he'd need to fight a by election and in by election terms there are no safe seats in the country, so.. no, sorry Nads. Boris ain't riding to the rescue this time.
    That article wasn’t written by Nadine Dorries, she just tweeted a link to it
    She was probably being sarcastic.
    You obviously don’t care what I think of you… but you’re making yourself look a complete…. something that gets people banned… let’s say ‘berk’

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    It looks like the requirement for photo ID didn't save the Tory bacon.

    I hope there is a proper analysis of who was turned away or otherwise prevented.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239
    edited May 4
    It is the second year of disastrous expectations management, with the number of losses last year and with the Mayoral ramping this year.

    So what can be said for the Tories to give them a glimmer of hope. I think PNV / NEV - 7 / 9% lead is a not a gimme for Labour, it is no worse for the Tories than last year, such numbers are bridgeable.

    The amount of granular detail you would have to ignore to run with that (e.g. the bits where Labour is struggling is not where Con is competitive anyway, by elections are trending far worse for Con etc etc) is not really the point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
    A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.

    Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.

    See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
    Something to come in Wales, though this time Labour will catch it.
    It will be difficult to make comparisons given the blatantly rigged changes to the voting system, which I must get round to doing a thread header on at some point.

    The trick is, finding time to make it short enough so that some persons on here with the attention span of a concussed gnat don't complain about the length.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited May 4

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.

    But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
    As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
    Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
    Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
    Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
    Musselburgh has a train station!
    But not at the High Street, which is what I'm thinking of. Not the old workhouse on the outskirts. Or Monktonhall ex-Colliery.
    Musselburgh to Waverley (by car) = 7 miles
    Old Oak Common to Euston (by car) = 7 miles
    Oh, are you a Secret Squirrel that you can carry your car in your pocket?!

    I get it now, you really meant 'Monktonhall for Musselburgh' in the good old 'Somewhere in nowhere for a town 5 miles away' GWR style. But to me Musselburgh is a town actually at the mouth of the Esk, not some random halt on the NBR. If you'd said 'change at Monktonhall for Waverley ...' But OOC is between Harlesden and Acton, no? Definitely in London. All part of London. One might as well complain that Liverpool Street Station was five miles from Harrods.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    CatMan said:

    Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?

    I would suspect not. I think that a fair proportion of Yakoob's 11% would have gone Labour with a second preference. Much more than any pick up from the Reform Party for Street.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    On polling, YouGovs London Assembly polling was also out by a significant factor overstating Lab by 5 and understating Con by 5 and overstating Reform and LDs by a couple points
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scrapping HS2 was a terrible decision, but not sure how it affected Andy Street's popularity since the scheme is still going to B'ham.

    But Brum might actually want to be connected to places other than London, to the standards which London expects as of right.
    As envisaged by Sunak and those drunken tossers at the Treasury and the DfT, it doesn't actually go to London.
    Old Oak Common isn't in London? Seriously?
    Not central London. It would be a bit like an Edinburgh terminus actually being located in Musselburgh.
    Decidedly not. MUsselburgh to Princes St is about 3/4 hr by walkies+train. OOC to central London half that, and train all the way.
    Musselburgh has a train station!
    But not at the High Street, which is what I'm thinking of. Not the old workhouse on the outskirts. Or Monktonhall ex-Colliery.
    Musselburgh to Waverley (by car) = 7 miles
    Old Oak Common to Euston (by car) = 7 miles
    Can you get from OOC to Euston by rail now Sunak has given in to the road and air lobby, er, scaled back the tracks to Euston?

    Wouldn't you have to walk to Willesden Junction and pick up whatever Khan's calling the Overground this week?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    viewcode said:

    Richard Parker sobbing at the Podium

    I cannot for the life of me stop thinking of him as the tiger in "Life of Pi"
    The Tiger of The West Midlands.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,756
    CatMan said:

    Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?

    Do have to giggle. Tories pass voter ID laws which Rees-Mogg says were done to disenfranchise voters. And a switch to FPTP which was intended to splinter the anti-Tory vote.

    And they still got demolished.

    Don't they get it? They're hated by so many because they are so hateful. The only way to win is to not be them.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,149
    Final figures for London are in and it looks like Khan didn't underperform Labour by much at all. And after two terms I'd say job done.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?

    I would suspect not. I think that a fair proportion of Yakoob's 11% would have gone Labour with a second preference. Much more than any pick up from the Reform Party for Street.
    Assuming they would have actually used their second preference vote, of course.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited May 4
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
    A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.

    Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.

    See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
    Something to come in Wales, though this time Labour will catch it.
    The trick is, finding time to make it short enough so that some persons on here with the attention span of a concussed gnat don't complain about the length.
    Less is more.

    Mike was brilliant at it.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
    A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.

    Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.

    See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
    I honestly think I'm not alone among Londoners in thinking that ULEZ is the one great thing that Khan has done. Personally, I'm mildly asthmatic and have an irregular heart rhythm. Why would I not want to breath less polluted air?
    The last few times I’ve been to London it’s just so pleasantly quiet. Between fewer cars and electric cars it sounds great.
    A trip to Oxford street doesn't feel like smoking a pack of fags these days.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239
    dixiedean said:

    A Tory clean sweep on Salford Council tomorrow could yet save the weekend...

    Kent and Sussex PCCs? Get in there, son!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?

    I would suspect not. I think that a fair proportion of Yakoob's 11% would have gone Labour with a second preference. Much more than any pick up from the Reform Party for Street.
    Assuming they would have actually used their second preference vote, of course.
    Some would have. Just like some Reform would go Tory. But I think that the FPTP vote meant this was closer than it otherwise would have been. Let's face damn few were voting Tory in these elections and almost no one wanted them to win.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    Politics really can be brutal at times .

    To lose by such a narrow margin must be galling for Street .

    It’s also a lesson for those that sit at home moaning about results and don’t bother to vote . Your vote can make a difference.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?

    I would suspect not. I think that a fair proportion of Yakoob's 11% would have gone Labour with a second preference. Much more than any pick up from the Reform Party for Street.
    Assuming they would have actually used their second preference vote, of course.
    Same assumption for Reform of course.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    On polling, YouGovs London Assembly polling was also out by a significant factor overstating Lab by 5 and understating Con by 5 and overstating Reform and LDs by a couple points

    Yougov’s London polling was a joke.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.

    But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.

    The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.

    His support increased.

    Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
    That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.

    Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
    A Susan Hall victory would have put her in a very difficult position because whilst you can get away for years with not regulating stuff and things don’t get any better, if you deregulate and then things get worse your arse is on the line.

    Odds on a study in a year or two after a city-hall edict to lift ULEZ+ would show child mortality and morbidity from air pollution had risen, and Hall would be on the hook.

    See financial crisis of 2007/8 for precedent.
    Something to come in Wales, though this time Labour will catch it.
    The trick is, finding time to make it short enough so that some persons on here with the attention span of a concussed gnat don't complain about the length.
    Less is more.

    Mike was brilliant at it.
    Mike tended to write about very narrow subjects with very specific betting points.

    If you want non-simplistic analysis of complex subjects with a wide variety of implications (like, say, the blatant rigging of a voting system for a 96 member devolved body) it's not actually easy to keep them short.

    Feel free to write an analysis in two paragraphs if you think you can do better.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    11 of the 12 regional mayors are now Labour and however well Houchen did, the swing to Labour there was greater than in the West Midlands.

    Those mayors will be important under a Labour Government. Another reason why the tory comeback is going to take a long time.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,756
    Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.

    Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig?
    Priti Patel - mad
    Suella Braverman - mad
    Penny Mordaunt - ineffective
    Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time
    Boris Johnson - because hopium
    Liz Truss

    Anyone else?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    Pro_Rata said:

    It is the second year of disastrous expectations management, with the number of losses last year and with the Mayoral ramping this year.

    So what can be said for the Tories to give them a glimmer of hope. I think PNV / NEV - 7 / 9% lead is a not a gimme for Labour, it is no worse for the Tories than last year, such numbers are bridgeable.

    The amount of granular detail you would have to ignore to run with that (e.g. the bits where Labour is struggling is not where Con is competitive anyway, by elections are trending far worse for Con etc etc) is not really the point.

    With that amount of diversity of voting, the PNV / NEV is now a joke, a relic from a bygone era of 2 or 3 party politics. This time it told us nothing and concealed a lot. Such as where Labour and Lib Dem’s done best related to parliamentary target seats.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Foxy loxy got 0.6% on the list in London.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083

    CatMan said:

    Obviously we'll never know, but is it possible that it was the change to FPTP that actually cost Street the mayoralty?

    Do have to giggle. Tories pass voter ID laws which Rees-Mogg says were done to disenfranchise voters. And a switch to FPTP which was intended to splinter the anti-Tory vote.

    And they still got demolished.

    Don't they get it? They're hated by so many because they are so hateful. The only way to win is to not be them.
    No they don’t get it. They don’t get it at all. You can see downthread that they are still banging on about culture wars and things that just don’t really matter to most people.

    People are tired of this hateful nasty party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    Street should have resigned over HS2 and run as the 'I get things done' indepedent guy.

    Huge mistake sticking with the soiled brand.

    More to the point Sunak made a terrible mistake by giving up on HS2. Not only was it economically illiterate it was political suicide pretty much everywhere north of London. He's made an astonishing number of mistakes for a clever guy but that one, to me, is, well, second to Rwanda.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Sean_F said:

    On polling, YouGovs London Assembly polling was also out by a significant factor overstating Lab by 5 and understating Con by 5 and overstating Reform and LDs by a couple points

    Yougov’s London polling was a joke.
    Did other pollsters do better job re: London?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.

    Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig?
    Priti Patel - mad
    Suella Braverman - mad
    Penny Mordaunt - ineffective
    Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time
    Boris Johnson - because hopium
    Liz Truss

    Anyone else?

    The porn baron's pal might have a go but he ain't going to win.
This discussion has been closed.