Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Since when was September (and an election in the conference season would be later in that month) “in the middle” of the summer holidays?
There’s a reason that political and union and many trade conferences are held in September….
I think September is likely; the problem with it is not September but August. The dissolution has to occur during recess and holiday season. IMHO what might happen is this: An early announcement of the September date (July), washing up before recess, dissolution in late August. Parties all decide for themselves when the campaign really begins.
This avoids a disastrous Tory conference, avoids the Trump taint and has a surprise factor.
Also pro this is that I win an unlikely point in the new year prediction game. Bonus point if there is NOM.
July is the next most likely month.
September, as @OldKingCole has pointed out, is when oldies take their holidays (because it's cheaper and less crowded). July is when independent school parents take their holidays and also parents in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Also Leicestershire, although that's less significant politically.
So both would be damnfool times to have an election.
This does not mean Sunak will not do it. He cut back HS2 and threw away Birmingham as a result. Judgement is not one of his strengths.
I was going to say that judgement was Sunak's Achilles' heel but then I realised that implies he is otherwise quite strong.
Sunak's judgement is perhaps the first among weakquals
Sunak’s statement was instructive. He genuinely believes that (a) he is doing a great job, and that (b) people need more time to realise how great a job he is doing.
They will want to do another “giveaway tax cut” (where our taxes go up) and give people time to notice it.
An election pre-Christmas makes the most sense. Rishi’s Christmas Presents says the Mail front page, whilst pages 2-11 go to town on Rayner’s house hoping that this time anyone will care.
We all know January would be insane. But insane is what this government is. A misery election when everyone is dark and cold and broke? The pain would be “this is Starmer’s Britain” where only Subak could “bring the good times back”
Forget dates before 12th December. Unless the government just collapses into internal warfare.
One reason his allies nevertheless think it likely he will survive is that the insurrectionists have never had a coherent plan for what would happen the day after a coup. There is no miracle worker ready to swoop in with a magic formula to save the Conservative party. Even if he survives the manoeuvres of those in his party who want rid of him, the verdict he will not be able to evade for all that much longer is that of the country. Pretending not to be a Tory won’t be an option at the general election.
Tory MPs at the GE can't distance themselves from the Tory brand, but they can distance themselves from Brand Rishi if thy act now...
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Since when was September (and an election in the conference season would be later in that month) “in the middle” of the summer holidays?
There’s a reason that political and union and many trade conferences are held in September….
I think September is likely; the problem with it is not September but August. The dissolution has to occur during recess and holiday season. IMHO what might happen is this: An early announcement of the September date (July), washing up before recess, dissolution in late August. Parties all decide for themselves when the campaign really begins.
This avoids a disastrous Tory conference, avoids the Trump taint and has a surprise factor.
Also pro this is that I win an unlikely point in the new year prediction game. Bonus point if there is NOM.
July is the next most likely month.
September, as @OldKingCole has pointed out, is when oldies take their holidays (because it's cheaper and less crowded). July is when independent school parents take their holidays and also parents in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Also Leicestershire, although that's less significant politically.
So both would be damnfool times to have an election.
This does not mean Sunak will not do it. He cut back HS2 and threw away Birmingham as a result. Judgement is not one of his strengths.
I can't see that cancelling the northern legs of HS2 damaged the Tories in the West Midlands. They still get their fast trains to That London, and I can't see them being fussed about no fast train to Manchester or Leeds.
For fuck's sake:
HE DIDN'T ONLY CANCEL THE NORTHERN LEGS. HE ALSO CANCELLED THE LEG FROM OLD OAK COMMON TO EUSTON.
That throttles capacity in the most important place and destroys the rationale for building the bloody thing in the first place. Which is likely deliberate. The DfT never wanted it built. They don't like railways.
The West Midlands putting up with all this disruption for no reward at all. And believe me, they are pissed off.
Sunak rose to power on the back of absurdly generous handouts of money. The plan must be to bribe the electorate in the autumn statement in November. It will take six weeks to enact the bribe. Therefore free owls in the January pay packet and a January election.
You're suggesting a Trump-style end to elections in that case...
If they are looking down the barrel of extinction and with a dwindling but nonetheless healthy majority still intact, why not an Act of Parliament proclaiming Rishi Sunak Prime Minister sine die? If they can declare Rwanda safe, simply because they can despite substantial evidence to the contrary, why not?
Lets assume the Tories move for Sunak. Lets further assume that having sent the likes of Richard Holden and Andrew Mitchell into bat that Sunak ends up in the Yousless position.
Shall we line up the runners and riders for the Tory salvation gig? Priti Patel - mad Suella Braverman - mad Penny Mordaunt - ineffective Rehman Chisti - its Chisti time Boris Johnson - because hopium Liz Truss
Anyone else?
This is why they wont in the end move.
It is all piss and wind or whatever the expression de jour is.
Only Johnson makes sense as a 'what the fuck, nothing to lose here and he might just pull something off' candidate.
I sort of disagree. I think Mordaunt could give them a bump in polls if she held an election quickly after becoming leader, before being found out.
At most she might get a brief bounce but she would soon be found out as over promoted as PM, she is mid rank Cabinet material level at most, not even great Office of State level yet alone PM.
Mordaunt is perfectly decent and hardworking but is much less intelligent than Rishi and doesn't have the statute or presence needed for the top job. Rishi will lead the Tories into the next GE, there is no viable alternative in Parliament now and if he loses and takes the blame for defeat then the Conservatives have the time to decide what direction they want the party to go into in Opposition
Rishi clearly isn’t that intelligent
I disagree - he is on his subjects but he is terrible as a politician
He would be good in the IMF or similar
Lots of really intelligent people have little common sense and absolutely no common touch.
Thinking of people like David "two brains" Willets and Oliver bloody Letwin...
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I was very nearly knocked over yesterday by a twat on a Surron doing estimated 35mph on the pavement while on his phone. If I hadn't jumped there's a very good chance I'd have been killed.
He's been riding around a lot recently at high speed including on the paths, through the parks and on the wrong side of the road.
But the police do not care. They're spooked by what happened in Cardiff where the parents of those two tossers blamed the police for their deaths while riding like lunatics.
Hopefully when he crashes he will kill himself rather than somebody else.
But certainly cracking down on inconsiderate and dangerous cyclists and e-bikes including that idiot Drakeford to fuck off when he supports them (a compelling sign he doesn't really give a shit about dangerous driving despite his 20mph nonsense) would be a good start by any government. They're not a pest, they're a real menace.
I've spotted a number of near misses in London, both pedestrians and cyclists, who have their headphones on whilst entering traffic - often at odds with traffic signals. Sooner or later someone will be killed.
Are you crossing the road or on the road? If so, remove your headphones.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
Yes I don’t know how to second guess the timing so I’m not in on this market yet.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
The only sure bet is that they’re going to lose.
Latest parliament can dissolve is 17 December 2024, and then polling day will be Tuesday 28 January 2025. You'd have a v. soft campaign over the week before Christmas, and it wouldn't really heat up until Boxing Day. It could work, although the January payday point is a good one. I wouldn't recommend it but it's possible.
The point on "go now because otherwise it will be even worse" is almost always made by political opponents desperate to get into office trying to goad the Government into dissolving early so they get in early. There's no reason the Government should play that game; there's plenty on the upside that might work out for them.
Rwanda and the Summer boat crossings is probably the biggest political risk, and after that the performance of the NHS through another Winter. But, it's possible the former 'works' and a big cash injection is delivered on the latter, as the economy recovers, and that strengthens Sunak's GE defensive strategy.
I thought it traditional that elections take place on a Thursday which gives us the 23rd January. If he hangs on until the following Tuesday he really is desperate for his black swan event.
But maybe you are right and 9 more months of performative cruelty will swing the dial. I am not sure Sunak pulls of "nasty" to electoral benefit in the way a real piece of work like Braverman or Jenrick would. He's just not convincing.
You say "performative cruelty" and throw around other charming words like nasty and piece of work. That rigid blend of moral sanctimony and tribalism that's so very Labour.
How do I see it?
I look upon a prospective Labour government with unabashed horror: I think it will be very negative for me and my family. Not to mention the country with pointless nationalisations, class war, an expansion of public sector entitlements and taxes, without any commensurate increase in output, turning identity politics back up to 11 and making ill-thought through and partisan changes to fundamental parts of our constitution.
I'm delighted if he cockblocks you for as long as possible.
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1h The Tories' fate has long been sealed, but they made it far, far worse when they went down the National Populist road. People just want to sign up with a dentist, phone a GP, get a bus on time. Simple things.
Like I've said before, Rishi started off quite well and I think he could have taken the Tories to a very respectable defeat but the turning point was when they held on to Uxbridge and I think he thought that by going down the Populist route/taxing to the right, he might be able to actually win the election.
It was terrible miscalculation, although also a very human one. I can understand no one wants to be the leader that's holding the baton when the party gets turfed out of office, but by trying to force things rather than accepting the inevitable graciously, he has made things much worse they needed to be.
Yes, making London’s air quality worse isn’t a great retail offer to the capital’s public. Khan has shown leadership on the environment, and he’s won a landslide.
I thought he'd been broadly in line or a little worse than UK polling average. But then I suppose that is a landslide!
I'd like to know the real rights and wrongs of air quality. I am pretty much convinced that ULEZ has nothing to do with air quality, it's about revenue generation, with a side order of the eventual destination of only rich people being able to drive their own vehicle. That's a horribly regressive idea that I think (eventually) left wing people will be quite ashamed of having being co-opted into.
One of the great merits of PB btl is that as we slug it out in debate, we eventually get a pretty good picture of the facts. I've presented some evidence that actually tyre particulates are worse than exhaust particulates. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyres-produce-more-particle-pollution-than-exhausts-tests-show Someone else made the point that tyre particulates are bigger, so have more of a tendency to drop harmlessly on to the road without being inhaled. It would be interesting if this person can subtantiate this thought.
I've seen different figures from different studies, but if we're talking about pm 2.5 particles then tyres probably contribute more than exhaust - but only because of rules to reduce them from exhausts. Also brakes contribute a significant amount, but electric vehicles put little to no particles into the air from brakes. With tyres it is massively dependent on the style of driving and the quality of the tyres, but obviously lighter vehicles are better.
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
Labour have promised to introduce free breakfast clubs in every primary school in England!
We discussed gruel and what it was recently. These 10 Labour policies are it in its thin form. This is not a criticism. They have no choice. But the use of the terms 'new fiscal lock' and 'clamp down', 'cut red tape' invites a rush for the exit. Other ghastlinesses abound. Worth comparing with SKS's original platform for leadership of the People's Democratic Republic of United Jezzadom:
And since they wouldn’t want to let the cat out the bag they would have to cancel conferences with about 4 or 5 weeks to go. That’s not going to go down well in those constituencies (Birmingham in the case of the Cons).
I think Casino Royale has got this right. September is unlikely unless of course they call it soon and have a mega long campaign through the summer?
It will be November or December. October Conference will be used to platform it. Sunak will want his 2 years and he'll want to tell his story and vision.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I was very nearly knocked over yesterday by a twat on a Surron doing estimated 35mph on the pavement while on his phone. If I hadn't jumped there's a very good chance I'd have been killed.
He's been riding around a lot recently at high speed including on the paths, through the parks and on the wrong side of the road.
But the police do not care. They're spooked by what happened in Cardiff where the parents of those two tossers blamed the police for their deaths while riding like lunatics.
Hopefully when he crashes he will kill himself rather than somebody else.
But certainly cracking down on inconsiderate and dangerous cyclists and e-bikes including that idiot Drakeford to fuck off when he supports them (a compelling sign he doesn't really give a shit about dangerous driving despite his 20mph nonsense) would be a good start by any government. They're not a pest, they're a real menace.
I've spotted a number of near misses in London, both pedestrians and cyclists, who have their headphones on whilst entering traffic - often at odds with traffic signals. Sooner or later someone will be killed.
Are you crossing the road or on the road? If so, remove your headphones.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
Yes I don’t know how to second guess the timing so I’m not in on this market yet.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
The only sure bet is that they’re going to lose.
Latest parliament can dissolve is 17 December 2024, and then polling day will be Tuesday 28 January 2025. You'd have a v. soft campaign over the week before Christmas, and it wouldn't really heat up until Boxing Day. It could work, although the January payday point is a good one. I wouldn't recommend it but it's possible.
The point on "go now because otherwise it will be even worse" is almost always made by political opponents desperate to get into office trying to goad the Government into dissolving early so they get in early. There's no reason the Government should play that game; there's plenty on the upside that might work out for them.
Rwanda and the Summer boat crossings is probably the biggest political risk, and after that the performance of the NHS through another Winter. But, it's possible the former 'works' and a big cash injection is delivered on the latter, as the economy recovers, and that strengthens Sunak's GE defensive strategy.
I thought it traditional that elections take place on a Thursday which gives us the 23rd January. If he hangs on until the following Tuesday he really is desperate for his black swan event.
But maybe you are right and 9 more months of performative cruelty will swing the dial. I am not sure Sunak pulls of "nasty" to electoral benefit in the way a real piece of work like Braverman or Jenrick would. He's just not convincing.
You say "performative cruelty" and throw around other charming words like nasty and piece of work. That rigid blend of moral sanctimony and tribalism that's so very Labour.
How do I see it?
I look upon a prospective Labour government with unabashed horror: I think it will be very negative for me and my family. Not to mention the country with pointless nationalisations, class war, an expansion of public sector entitlements and taxes, without any commensurate increase in output, turning identity politics back up to 11 and making ill-thought through and partisan changes to fundamental parts of our constitution.
I'm delighted if he cockblocks you for as long as possible.
Who knows it might be good. The last few years have been overwhelmingly poor. By far the worst government I can remember.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Looking at the 20th Century, elections mainly seemed to happen in May/June or October/November with the odd few in the Dec-Jan period and a one in each of March April and July. My guess is that Oct/Nov is what he is looking at. He isn’t going to push it until Jan for various reasons. The only remaining question is does the election necessitate cancellation of conference season. If he’s wise he will because by then the election will be imminent and the last thing anyone in his position should want is a week of reporting about the lunatics ranting on the fringe, post election jostling for position plus the possibility of a PR disaster like occurred to Mrs May when her backdrop fell apart in a visual metaphor.
Conference gives a more of less guaranteed platform for several days, although Labour will clearly try and disrupt that, so I don't think he'd want to pass that up.
Also candidate selections will go into July and August and then the literature and campaign plan for each seat needs to bed in after, so he'll want them bedded in and ready too.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Not really an analogy though, is it?
Yes it is. The claim in both cases is "you can't prosecute me for exceeding limits of variables when I am not legally obliged to have the equipment needed to measure those variables."
Reasonable to not know how fast you are going on a bicycle. Unreasonable to not know that you drank alcohol before driving.
So not the same thing at all.
But I think it's OK to say speed limits apply to bicycles, it would only be enforced when someone causes an accident anyway.
Do you live elsewhere than England and Wales? Because here you can drink some alcohol and drive.
Fair enough, but the analogy still doesn't really work for me. I don't think anybody needs to drink any alcohol before driving. But if you choose to you should be absolutely sure you are nowhere near the limit.
This is amazing on ConHome. Entitled “Goodbyeee” it starts with the final scene on Blackadder Goes Fourth just before they go over the top, and ends with:
“I’m very sorry to all those who lost. I can offer nothing but sympathy, guilt, and anger. I also have very little advice for those standing later this year, those attempting to defy gravity for CCHQ, or a Prime Minister I voted for and still admire. Well, perhaps one small suggestion. Have you tried sticking underpants on your head and pencils up your nose?
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Though Pedro Sanchez got away with that in Spain.
More seriously, if we run the World War One railway timetables over this...
Dissolution this Wednesday gives polling on June 13.
If Sunak wants an election before the summer, his last chance is dissolution May 22, polling June 27. After that, some places (Scotland and, I think, somewhere in the midlands) have earlier school holidays than the rest of us.
Next available date avoiding the summer is dissolution September 5, voting October 10.
All this assumes that there's minimal washup needed in parliament. But given how... washed up... the government is, that might not be a problem.
I'm still expecting December 19. Last available not-utterly-kamikaze date.
If I had deep pockets (I don't at the moment, for a variety of reasons) I'd hoover up the lays for anything before October.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I was very nearly knocked over yesterday by a twat on a Surron doing estimated 35mph on the pavement while on his phone. If I hadn't jumped there's a very good chance I'd have been killed.
He's been riding around a lot recently at high speed including on the paths, through the parks and on the wrong side of the road.
But the police do not care. They're spooked by what happened in Cardiff where the parents of those two tossers blamed the police for their deaths while riding like lunatics.
Hopefully when he crashes he will kill himself rather than somebody else.
But certainly cracking down on inconsiderate and dangerous cyclists and e-bikes including that idiot Drakeford to fuck off when he supports them (a compelling sign he doesn't really give a shit about dangerous driving despite his 20mph nonsense) would be a good start by any government. They're not a pest, they're a real menace.
I've spotted a number of near misses in London, both pedestrians and cyclists, who have their headphones on whilst entering traffic - often at odds with traffic signals. Sooner or later someone will be killed.
Are you crossing the road or on the road? If so, remove your headphones.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
Yes I don’t know how to second guess the timing so I’m not in on this market yet.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
The only sure bet is that they’re going to lose.
Latest parliament can dissolve is 17 December 2024, and then polling day will be Tuesday 28 January 2025. You'd have a v. soft campaign over the week before Christmas, and it wouldn't really heat up until Boxing Day. It could work, although the January payday point is a good one. I wouldn't recommend it but it's possible.
The point on "go now because otherwise it will be even worse" is almost always made by political opponents desperate to get into office trying to goad the Government into dissolving early so they get in early. There's no reason the Government should play that game; there's plenty on the upside that might work out for them.
Rwanda and the Summer boat crossings is probably the biggest political risk, and after that the performance of the NHS through another Winter. But, it's possible the former 'works' and a big cash injection is delivered on the latter, as the economy recovers, and that strengthens Sunak's GE defensive strategy.
I thought it traditional that elections take place on a Thursday which gives us the 23rd January. If he hangs on until the following Tuesday he really is desperate for his black swan event.
But maybe you are right and 9 more months of performative cruelty will swing the dial. I am not sure Sunak pulls of "nasty" to electoral benefit in the way a real piece of work like Braverman or Jenrick would. He's just not convincing.
You say "performative cruelty" and throw around other charming words like nasty and piece of work. That rigid blend of moral sanctimony and tribalism that's so very Labour.
How do I see it?
I look upon a prospective Labour government with unabashed horror: I think it will be very negative for me and my family. Not to mention the country with pointless nationalisations, class war, an expansion of public sector entitlements and taxes, without any commensurate increase in output, turning identity politics back up to 11 and making ill-thought through and partisan changes to fundamental parts of our constitution.
I'm delighted if he cockblocks you for as long as possible.
Who knows it might be good. The last few years have been overwhelmingly poor. By far the worst government I can remember.
Yes, but we hear this every time there's a Tory government you want to get rid of, Jonathan.
By the same token, you complain about us saying the world is going to end if you're elected and to be afraid, very afraid.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
Yes I don’t know how to second guess the timing so I’m not in on this market yet.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
The only sure bet is that they’re going to lose.
Latest parliament can dissolve is 17 December 2024, and then polling day will be Tuesday 28 January 2025. You'd have a v. soft campaign over the week before Christmas, and it wouldn't really heat up until Boxing Day. It could work, although the January payday point is a good one. I wouldn't recommend it but it's possible.
The point on "go now because otherwise it will be even worse" is almost always made by political opponents desperate to get into office trying to goad the Government into dissolving early so they get in early. There's no reason the Government should play that game; there's plenty on the upside that might work out for them.
Rwanda and the Summer boat crossings is probably the biggest political risk, and after that the performance of the NHS through another Winter. But, it's possible the former 'works' and a big cash injection is delivered on the latter, as the economy recovers, and that strengthens Sunak's GE defensive strategy.
The issue the government face is that January really would be hanging on and feel desperate - there will be an element of anger at perceived "squatting" in Downing Street - even more so than a government that hangs on for 5 years in the usual May-May pattern.
The ideal time for the govt would probably be autumn - hangs on and allows for Micawberism but isn't delaying till the last possible moment, but the US election complicates things as it's clearly not ideal to have it at a time when that circus is going on.
The reason lots of people think it can only get worse is that even better economic news only slowly filters through and does so on a timelag. And even good news isn't particularly great - at the end of the Major years growth was clipping along at around 3% a year. The Tories still got slaughtered and that level of growth just isn't happening for now at least.
The government has very little left in the tank in terms of legislative ideas and party discipline has almost entirely broken down.
If everything goes *right* for Sunak the polls may remain fairly static. But there are an awful lot of things that could go wrong and that's where we get to historic wipeout scenarios. Unlikely, but more possible the longer you go.
There's even a point about 'voter attrition'. The demographic profile of the Tory vote is now so skewed towards the elderly that I think someone worked out that death rates and new voters joining the electorate may knock 0.5% off their polling - all other things staying equal - if wait till October, and more if January.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I was very nearly knocked over yesterday by a twat on a Surron doing estimated 35mph on the pavement while on his phone. If I hadn't jumped there's a very good chance I'd have been killed.
He's been riding around a lot recently at high speed including on the paths, through the parks and on the wrong side of the road.
But the police do not care. They're spooked by what happened in Cardiff where the parents of those two tossers blamed the police for their deaths while riding like lunatics.
Hopefully when he crashes he will kill himself rather than somebody else.
But certainly cracking down on inconsiderate and dangerous cyclists and e-bikes including that idiot Drakeford to fuck off when he supports them (a compelling sign he doesn't really give a shit about dangerous driving despite his 20mph nonsense) would be a good start by any government. They're not a pest, they're a real menace.
I've spotted a number of near misses in London, both pedestrians and cyclists, who have their headphones on whilst entering traffic - often at odds with traffic signals. Sooner or later someone will be killed.
Are you crossing the road or on the road? If so, remove your headphones.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
Yes I don’t know how to second guess the timing so I’m not in on this market yet.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
The only sure bet is that they’re going to lose.
Latest parliament can dissolve is 17 December 2024, and then polling day will be Tuesday 28 January 2025. You'd have a v. soft campaign over the week before Christmas, and it wouldn't really heat up until Boxing Day. It could work, although the January payday point is a good one. I wouldn't recommend it but it's possible.
The point on "go now because otherwise it will be even worse" is almost always made by political opponents desperate to get into office trying to goad the Government into dissolving early so they get in early. There's no reason the Government should play that game; there's plenty on the upside that might work out for them.
Rwanda and the Summer boat crossings is probably the biggest political risk, and after that the performance of the NHS through another Winter. But, it's possible the former 'works' and a big cash injection is delivered on the latter, as the economy recovers, and that strengthens Sunak's GE defensive strategy.
I thought it traditional that elections take place on a Thursday which gives us the 23rd January. If he hangs on until the following Tuesday he really is desperate for his black swan event.
But maybe you are right and 9 more months of performative cruelty will swing the dial. I am not sure Sunak pulls of "nasty" to electoral benefit in the way a real piece of work like Braverman or Jenrick would. He's just not convincing.
You say "performative cruelty" and throw around other charming words like nasty and piece of work. That rigid blend of moral sanctimony and tribalism that's so very Labour.
How do I see it?
I look upon a prospective Labour government with unabashed horror: I think it will be very negative for me and my family. Not to mention the country with pointless nationalisations, class war, an expansion of public sector entitlements and taxes, without any commensurate increase in output, turning identity politics back up to 11 and making ill-thought through and partisan changes to fundamental parts of our constitution.
I'm delighted if he cockblocks you for as long as possible.
Who knows it might be good. The last few years have been overwhelmingly poor. By far the worst government I can remember.
Yes, but we hear this every time there's a Tory government you want to get rid of, Jonathan.
By the same token, you complain about us saying the world is going to end if you're elected and to be afraid, very afraid.
Henry Mance @henrymance · 5h Respect to the election workers who counted votes for the London mayoralty, despite the capital's widespread looting, gun battles and tank warfare
I have a question. Is it better to rent a flat in London than buy one?
The flat would cost £350k to buy but the rental level is around £1300. Buying... mortgage interest/cost of capital would be £17,500 per year (at 5%). Renting... £1300 per month, so £15,600 per year.
Buying - you have to also pay service charges on a flat and are exposed to 'leasehold risk' in all its various forms. None of that applies when you are renting. Also when renting you can get the landlord to fix the appliances and deal with problems with the building.
This got me thinking. Is property in London massively overpriced and due a correction? My theory is that the market it still priced based on low interest rates that existed from around 2015-2021, indeed prices are basically frozen from this time. When interest rates were 2%, the mortgage interest/cost of capital for the property cited above would be £7000 per year and buying the flat would make sense. But not at 5%.
Who knows whether it will be 5% forever and if renting at end of day you have nothing. Unless the place burns down , if buying it will be worth at least what you put into it so you will have all your money back. Therefore looks like risking £2K to get minimum £15K a year , does not make renting look attractive to me.
I'd say it makes living in London at all look totally unattractive to me
Have to agree , I would not want to live there in any circumstances.
However. Before I do. Irrespective of what happens in the EU, I think everyone agrees that Frosty is an unelected bureaucrat? He’s not been elected, and he was a Civil Servant so if the cap fits….
Yes, he is. But accountable to elected positions. Not true for many major roles in the EU.
So are you saying the EU Parliament and the elected heads of state that set EU policy and direction aren't elected?
No, I am talking about the European Commission, which doesn't ever get voted out, regardless of performance. The EU Parliament does have a facade of democracy, but it is done in a manner where it doesn't actually change EU policy, given the two main party groupings stitch up job sharing deals after every election.
The Santer Commission. You're welcome.
They resigned due to a corruption scandal. They weren't voted out. Though it is amusing that you think one resignation in 66 years is said smugly as an answer for a lack of democratic accountability.
I assume you think the Civil Service here should be elected too.
There is a legitimate argument that we have too much of the country run by unelected quangoracy. Much of which seems to be proudly beyond the responsibility of politicians.
Think of the magnificently apolitical Post Office…
Muslim integrates, becomes human rights lawyer, campaigns for gay marriage, becomes London Mayor, introduces more rights for all people.
No not like that!
The idea that Muslims don't integrate is ludicrous. What about the tenth century Arab mathematician Hasan Ibn al-Haytham, who derived a formula for the sum of fourth powers and used the results to carry out what would now be called an integration, where the formulas for the sums of integral squares and fourth powers allowed him to calculate the volume of a paraboloid?
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Maybe we should add a breathalyser to all cars. Would save a lot more lives than speedometers on bicycles.
If we cyclists want to stop batsh*t insane ideas like 'speedometers on bicycles', then we need to discourage the poor or bad behaviour exhibited by too many of our community.
Given that just about everyone on a bike has on them a GPS equipped device (phone), they already have a speedometer.
How many have a mounting bracket on the handlebars for their phone?
It’s not hard to detect when you are doing more than the speed limit - it is quite noticeable when you are going faster than the cars.
Comments
Sunak's judgement is perhaps the first among weakquals
Sunak’s statement was instructive. He genuinely believes that (a) he is doing a great job, and that (b) people need more time to realise how great a job he is doing.
They will want to do another “giveaway tax cut” (where our taxes go up) and give people time to notice it.
An election pre-Christmas makes the most sense. Rishi’s Christmas Presents says the Mail front page, whilst pages 2-11 go to town on Rayner’s house hoping that this time anyone will care.
We all know January would be insane. But insane is what this government is. A misery election when everyone is dark and cold and broke? The pain would be “this is Starmer’s Britain” where only Subak could “bring the good times back”
Forget dates before 12th December. Unless the government just collapses into internal warfare.
HE DIDN'T ONLY CANCEL THE NORTHERN LEGS. HE ALSO CANCELLED THE LEG FROM OLD OAK COMMON TO EUSTON.
That throttles capacity in the most important place and destroys the rationale for building the bloody thing in the first place. Which is likely deliberate. The DfT never wanted it built. They don't like railways.
The West Midlands putting up with all this disruption for no reward at all. And believe me, they are pissed off.
NEW THREAD
Are you crossing the road or on the road? If so, remove your headphones. You say "performative cruelty" and throw around other charming words like nasty and piece of work. That rigid blend of moral sanctimony and tribalism that's so very Labour.
How do I see it?
I look upon a prospective Labour government with unabashed horror: I think it will be very negative for me and my family. Not to mention the country with pointless nationalisations, class war, an expansion of public sector entitlements and taxes, without any commensurate increase in output, turning identity politics back up to 11 and making ill-thought through and partisan changes to fundamental parts of our constitution.
I'm delighted if he cockblocks you for as long as possible.
https://www.clpd.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Keir-Starmers-10-Pledges.pdf
Outside chance of January.
Also candidate selections will go into July and August and then the literature and campaign plan for each seat needs to bed in after, so he'll want them bedded in and ready too.
“I’m very sorry to all those who lost. I can offer nothing but sympathy, guilt, and anger. I also have very little advice for those standing later this year, those attempting to defy gravity for CCHQ, or a Prime Minister I voted for and still admire. Well, perhaps one small suggestion. Have you tried sticking underpants on your head and pencils up
your nose?
https://conservativehome.com/2024/05/05/goodbyeee/?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter
Not going to happen.
By the same token, you complain about us saying the world is going to end if you're elected and to be afraid, very afraid.
We just see things differently.
The ideal time for the govt would probably be autumn - hangs on and allows for Micawberism but isn't delaying till the last possible moment, but the US election complicates things as it's clearly not ideal to have it at a time when that circus is going on.
The reason lots of people think it can only get worse is that even better economic news only slowly filters through and does so on a timelag. And even good news isn't particularly great - at the end of the Major years growth was clipping along at around 3% a year. The Tories still got slaughtered and that level of growth just isn't happening for now at least.
The government has very little left in the tank in terms of legislative ideas and party discipline has almost entirely broken down.
If everything goes *right* for Sunak the polls may remain fairly static. But there are an awful lot of things that could go wrong and that's where we get to historic wipeout scenarios. Unlikely, but more possible the longer you go.
There's even a point about 'voter attrition'. The demographic profile of the Tory vote is now so skewed towards the elderly that I think someone worked out that death rates and new voters joining the electorate may knock 0.5% off their polling - all other things staying equal - if wait till October, and more if January.
There's almost no good options now.
So he is really One Of Them.
Think of the magnificently apolitical Post Office…
How many have a mounting bracket on the handlebars for their phone?
It’s not hard to detect when you are doing more than the speed limit - it is quite noticeable when you are going faster than the cars.