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The pressure could be back on Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.

    Who was ramping?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647

    Hearing that Richard Parker has formally won the West Midlands mayor election for Labour.

    Concession from Andy Street is coming soon.

    What a superb victory.

    https://twitter.com/ringwodian/status/1786824354254262414

    Well his credibility will be in the loo or not, shortly
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647

    The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.

    Who was ramping?
    Ironically, Anabobazina was.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Hearing that Richard Parker has formally won the West Midlands mayor election for Labour.

    Concession from Andy Street is coming soon.

    What a superb victory.

    https://twitter.com/ringwodian/status/1786824354254262414

    The Tiger Of The West Midlands
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,493
    edited May 4
    NeilVW said:

    I agree with MoonRabbit. BBC live feed reporting that Street is 11,400 ahead with only Sandwell to declare. Liam Byrne was ahead by c. 5,000 last time on first preferences. There was only 67,440 votes total. I can’t see Street losing from here. Mark this post. :smile:

    Our posts, from the expert guidance of expert pundits of two channels, aged well. Nano seconds! 😆.

    Considering the number of votes the Galloway backed lawyer picked up, was the neck and neck pre vote polling including that size of his vote picked up by the polling?

    The size of a Labour win would have blown tight polling out the water if the polling didn’t have him getting so many votes.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited May 4

    The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.

    Yesterday you posted:

    "I'm now of the view that Hall will win. Almost certainly irrational, and probably due to too much exposure to ramping on here. Yet I have had that creeping feeling in my bones since my wife forgot to vote yesterday. I don't think Labour got its vote out."

    You are hardly in a position to criticise others.

    For the record I have said consistently that I had no idea who would win as I don't know enough about London to make any assumptions.
    I know a bit about London, having been born there and spent most of my adult life there, and knew from the shit that was posted about ULEZ on here, and the evidence of even the closest polls, that Khan was overwhelming likely to win.

    People who can afford a car in most of London can afford a ULEZ compliant car AKA one built within the last 15 years. Hell, the annual cost of parking could buy 3 at least.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Labour are gathering near the podium, they seem pretty confident… but we very much do not have any official result yet.

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1786829748317913383
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693

    Andy_JS said:

    A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.

    That 10,000 margin obviously wasn't the cause of the recount.
    Or they requested a re-count as a "Hail Mary" because Street knows he lost there?
    I think it’s safe to call the win for a Street now?

    The win % required in in last boro would be too difficult for Labour even without “there’s always a defence for every offence lawyer for Hamas” siphoning off some of these votes too?
    3.5 on BF if you think this.
    Political betting in a nutshell, as the vibe from Sky news is it’s a big ask for Labour.
    4.1 now
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    I would definitely jump on at 4.1 if you think Street is going to win.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    . . . meanwhile back at the Funny Farm . . .

    AP (via Seattle Times) - South Dakota Gov. Noem admits error of describing meeting North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in new book

    South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is releasing a new book called “No Going Back,” but on Friday her office said she would actually be going back to correct some errors — including a false claim that she once met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

    The Republican governor’s new book was part of an overt effort to be selected as a running mate for Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, but it has already faced bipartisan backlash for a story of how she once shot her hunting dog. Then, after scrutiny of her descriptions of meetings with international leaders, her spokesperson Ian Fury said in a statement that it was an error to include Kim in a list of world leaders who Noem has met — and the publisher would correct any future editions of the book.

    Noem’s political prospects were already falling amid widespread disgust for how she recounted killing her 14-month-old wirehaired pointer named Cricket after it had shown aggressive behavior and killed her neighbor’s chickens.

    SSI - Lying about never-happened meeting with Kim Jong Un is the LEAST of South Dakota Gov. Kristi "Dog-Killer" Noem's self-inflicted problems.

    Thanks to boasting about killing the mutt she herself mis-trained to pester chickens, her odds of being 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President are somewhat south of those of NORTH Dakota Gov. Doug "Take MY Money and Run" Burgum . . . or of Hope Hicks . . .
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Labour are gathering near the podium, they seem pretty confident… but we very much do not have any official result yet.

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1786829748317913383

    Okay I want Parker to win obviously, but I think it would be super funny if the Labour council team got their sums wrong and Street won by like, five votes or something.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693

    I would definitely jump on at 4.1 if you think Street is going to win.

    6.2
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    We had another seasoned poster state that “I’ve been saying for months that Khan could lose and I now strongly suspect he will.”

    There were a lot of people who swallowed the dodgy sauce source

    I really hope we can close the gap between vote and count because a LOT of this could have been averted by going back to counting on the night.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732

    I would definitely jump on at 4.1 if you think Street is going to win.

    I jumped on 6 but it didn’t last long enough. Value loser? :smile:
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    It's over, I will call it for Parker and if I am wrong, I am wrong.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693

    Harry Horton
    @harry_horton
    ·
    1m
    Labour seemingly think they’ve won West Mids mayor
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693
    NeilVW said:

    I would definitely jump on at 4.1 if you think Street is going to win.

    I jumped on 6 but it didn’t last long enough. Value loser? :smile:
    I'm still - just - green - but did jump in at 6.2
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    I would definitely jump on at 4.1 if you think Street is going to win.

    6.2
    He's not. Much as I'd like to believe it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Andy_JS said:

    A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.

    That 10,000 margin obviously wasn't the cause of the recount.
    Or they requested a re-count as a "Hail Mary" because Street knows he lost there?
    I think it’s safe to call the win for a Street now?

    The win % required in in last boro would be too difficult for Labour even without “there’s always a defence for every offence lawyer for Hamas” siphoning off some of these votes too?
    3.5 on BF if you think this.
    Political betting in a nutshell, as the vibe from Sky news is it’s a big ask for Labour.
    4.1 now
    The candidates get informed of the results before the announcement.

    It’s over.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693
    Street : now at 15 on BF

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    I’m hoping that after the forthcoming crushing General Election defeat, when Britain is moving forward socially, some of those on here who are stuck in a right wing rut will free themselves.

    The Conservative Party needs them and it’s not going to come about with all this antediluvian culture war guff.
    Why? We're winning.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,543
    Until fairly recently Sandwell used to be an area where they weighed the Labour vote instead of counting it.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Labour is quietly celebrating by the stage.

    They have just squeaked through thanks to Sandwell.

    Richard Parker will be the next West Midlands Mayor.

    Full declaration expected soon.

    https://twitter.com/LewisJWarner/status/1786830952225812849

    It is over.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    I think the final result for the London Assembly is Lab 11, Con 8, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Reform 1.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    I’m hoping that after the forthcoming crushing General Election defeat, when Britain is moving forward socially, some of those on here who are stuck in a right wing rut will free themselves.

    The Conservative Party needs them and it’s not going to come about with all this antediluvian culture war guff.
    Why? We're winning.
    No you really haven’t, not even remotely.

    As you will discover on General Election night.

    Seriously, this new tendency for Conservatives to stick their fingers in their ears and not listen to the country should really worry those who want them to return any time soon.

    The country is moving on. Don’t get left behind.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Although I think all the counting should be on the night, this does have the amusing effect of making people gripped by a relatively minor* mayoral result!


    *Not to their residents although 70% of their electorate didn’t bother to vote
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Andy_JS said:

    Until fairly recently Sandwell used to be an area where they weighed the Labour vote instead of counting it.

    Smethwick 1964?????
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    If Rishi Sunak thinks waiting is going to make it better for him, he's really not very astute. The best time to call the election was last year. The second best time is now. It's going to get a lot worse.

    As somebody hoping for them to be destroyed, I say wait as long as possible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers
    No, it will seem awfully passé and a peculiar fad of the late 10s/early 20s in a few years time.

    Many people will study in future how it happened that we became so obsessed with identity and intersectionalism.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911
    edited May 4
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    I’m hoping that after the forthcoming crushing General Election defeat, when Britain is moving forward socially, some of those on here who are stuck in a right wing rut will free themselves.

    The Conservative Party needs them and it’s not going to come about with all this antediluvian culture war guff.
    Why? We're winning.
    No you really haven’t, not even remotely.

    As you will discover on General Election night.

    Seriously, this new tendency for Conservatives to stick their fingers in their ears and not listen to the country should really worry those who want them to return any time soon.

    The country is moving on. Don’t get left behind.
    Are you very bossy and opinionated in real life, or just on PB?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656
    Sky call it for LAB
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693
    edited May 4
    BF out at 22 now for Street
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    At least the Tories have Harlow (at least when they readmit the suspended member they were counting without mentioning it) and Tees Valley. A solid foundation to build a GE on.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Sean_F said:

    I think the final result for the London Assembly is Lab 11, Con 8, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Reform 1.

    So just one net loss for Con, not too bad?

    Looks like I backed the wrong horse for WM, so will suck it up when they declare formally.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Sky says Parker has won
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    DavidL said:

    NeilVW said:

    I agree with MoonRabbit. BBC live feed reporting that Street is 11,400 ahead with only Sandwell to declare. Liam Byrne was ahead by c. 5,000 last time on first preferences. There was only 67,440’votes total. I can’t see Street losing from here. Mark this post. :smile:

    If the Old Politics numbers are right he is going to lose this last seat by about 18k and the whole thing by around 7k.
    This wait for final West Midlands mayoral result, reminds me of the night of the 2012 Missouri Democratic presidential primary.

    When Hilary Clinton was ahead of Barack Obama, with only a handful of the Show Me State's counties left to report significant still-unreported numbers of votes.

    HOWEVER, the as yet-outstanding jurisdictions were two of the biggest concentrations of votes - especially Democratic votes - statewide. Where early vote had gone heavily for Obama.

    After doing some quick math, yours truly came to conclusion (which proved correct) that Obama was gonna end up beating Clinton narrowly in Missouri. Which I posted on PB . . . and got considerable flack for it!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,543
    Kicking myself that I didn't cash out on Hall when she was 4/1. Live and learn.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888

    Andy_JS said:

    A recount for Labour to win by 10,000 votes. What a complete and utter waste of time.

    That 10,000 margin obviously wasn't the cause of the recount.
    Or they requested a re-count as a "Hail Mary" because Street knows he lost there?
    I think it’s safe to call the win for a Street now?

    The win % required in in last boro would be too difficult for Labour even without “there’s always a defence for every offence lawyer for Hamas” siphoning off some of these votes too?

    Clearly the amount of votes this celebrity lawyer has siphoned off has prevented a big Labour win? Exactly like that angry foul tweet from Labour spokesman the other day?

    The other thing I can confidently predict, it being a lawyer who saved Street - TSE has a lawyer header for us…
    Well Sky have called it for Parker...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Sky call it for LAB

    Don't you mean Red Tories? Keep up with your own narrative.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    NeilVW said:

    I agree with MoonRabbit. BBC live feed reporting that Street is 11,400 ahead with only Sandwell to declare. Liam Byrne was ahead by c. 5,000 last time on first preferences. There was only 67,440 votes total. I can’t see Street losing from here. Mark this post. :smile:

    I don't like doing this but you said mark this post.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited May 4
    DougSeal said:

    The ramping for Susan Hall on PB over the last 48 is quite probably the nadir of this forum. We even had people luxuriating in “what it would mean” if Sadiq lost. But he didn’t lose, did he? Far from it. Utterly embarrassing scenes on what was once a respectable betting site.

    I have to agree. I don’t know what some people were thinking. There was no evidence, none, that it was even close. The Sevanta poll, the one that turned out to be on the nail, still had him 10 points ahead.
    If people start making predictions significantly different from your own expectations, it is certainly sensible to revisit your own assumptions. But if nothing seems to have changed, from your own perspective, it is better to stick to your guns - more often than not, you’ll turn out to be right, and when you’re not, at least you maintained a consistent position and can review where your decision-making went wrong from the outset. So it was last night, when there wasn’t a single piece of credible evidence as to how or why a poor candidate from a hated party would suddenly turn around a contest being fought on such stony ground for the Tories. Hence the right thing to do was to stick to the assumption of a comfortable Labour win, as indeed it turned out to be.

    It would be all too easy to do what Leon did last night, in the face of thin rumours of a close race, and punt a “bookmark this….” prediction of a narrow win, hoping to be close enough either way to claim some credit. But if the basis for expecting a close result is all huff and puff, you simply end up looking foolish.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693

    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    ·
    1m
    Labour calling West Midlands Labour Gain
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers
    Woke is crystallised stupidity. It's up there with tulip fever, trephinning, and carrying a head scratcher because your three foot powdered wig is full of lice. It's a vulgarity of our age. That's how it will be looked upon.

    You can choose to go with it because everyone else is, or you can step back from it and realise 'Oh, that's a bit fucking daft'. Go with it, and you hand the right wing the moral and intellectual high ground, as we've seen over trans.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693

    John Stevens

    @johnestevens
    ·
    1m
    BREAKING: Labour pulls off shock victory in West Midlands as Tory Andy Street toppled
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    NeilVW said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think the final result for the London Assembly is Lab 11, Con 8, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Reform 1.

    So just one net loss for Con, not too bad?

    Looks like I backed the wrong horse for WM, so will suck it up when they declare formally.
    Viewed objectively, London was not bad at all, for the Conservatives. They pretty well retained their vote from 2019 and 2021.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    I’m hoping that after the forthcoming crushing General Election defeat, when Britain is moving forward socially, some of those on here who are stuck in a right wing rut will free themselves.

    The Conservative Party needs them and it’s not going to come about with all this antediluvian culture war guff.
    Why? We're winning.
    No you really haven’t, not even remotely.

    As you will discover on General Election night.

    Seriously, this new tendency for Conservatives to stick their fingers in their ears and not listen to the country should really worry those who want them to return any time soon.

    The country is moving on. Don’t get left behind.
    Losing the General Election would not prove your point, or provide a mandate for Wokery.

    You're right the country is moving on; it's moving on from the identity based obsessions of 2017-2022.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732

    NeilVW said:

    I agree with MoonRabbit. BBC live feed reporting that Street is 11,400 ahead with only Sandwell to declare. Liam Byrne was ahead by c. 5,000 last time on first preferences. There was only 67,440 votes total. I can’t see Street losing from here. Mark this post. :smile:

    I don't like doing this but you said mark this post.
    Yep. I asked for that one! Didn’t think Sandwell could swing enough but there we go.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693
    Out to 30

    It's over
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    I’m hoping that after the forthcoming crushing General Election defeat, when Britain is moving forward socially, some of those on here who are stuck in a right wing rut will free themselves.

    The Conservative Party needs them and it’s not going to come about with all this antediluvian culture war guff.
    Why? We're winning.
    No you really haven’t, not even remotely.

    As you will discover on General Election night.

    Seriously, this new tendency for Conservatives to stick their fingers in their ears and not listen to the country should really worry those who want them to return any time soon.

    The country is moving on. Don’t get left behind.
    Are you very bossy and opinionated in real life, or just on PB?
    Heathener doesn’t exist off PB, she's a Leon. As he's freely admitted on several occasions.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    OnboardG1 said:

    Hearing that Richard Parker has formally won the West Midlands mayor election for Labour.

    Concession from Andy Street is coming soon.

    What a superb victory.

    https://twitter.com/ringwodian/status/1786824354254262414

    The Tiger Of The West Midlands
    Tories eating humble pi.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    So after Gaza and the loss of some Muslim votes , the Birmingham council bankruptcy and the dirty Tory tactics the day before the vote the Tories still lost .

    What a great day !

    Sunak bigged up two mayoral elections thinking this very low bar would save him and could be spun. He really is a waste of space .
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Looks like Street ran out of road.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    I’m hoping that after the forthcoming crushing General Election defeat, when Britain is moving forward socially, some of those on here who are stuck in a right wing rut will free themselves.

    The Conservative Party needs them and it’s not going to come about with all this antediluvian culture war guff.
    Why? We're winning.
    No you really haven’t, not even remotely.

    As you will discover on General Election night.

    Seriously, this new tendency for Conservatives to stick their fingers in their ears and not listen to the country should really worry those who want them to return any time soon.

    The country is moving on. Don’t get left behind.
    Are you very bossy and opinionated in real life, or just on PB?
    Heathener doesn’t exist off PB, she's a Leon. As he's freely admitted on several occasions.
    Heathener is a she.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers
    Woke is crystallised stupidity. It's up there with tulip fever, trephinning, and carrying a head scratcher because your three foot powdered wig is full of lice. It's a vulgarity of our age. That's how it will be looked upon.

    You can choose to go with it because everyone else is, or you can step back from it and realise 'Oh, that's a bit fucking daft'. Go with it, and you hand the right wing the moral and intellectual high ground, as we've seen over trans.
    You’re dying out guys. Sorry. But your day is past.

    The country is itching to move on from the older, gammon and boomer, men.

    A bright new, pink, open dawn approaches. I am celebrating.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061
    Teaser trailer of "Megalopolis" just dropped.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZL3U1j3K1c
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061


    John Stevens

    @johnestevens
    ·
    1m
    BREAKING: Labour pulls off shock victory in West Midlands as Tory Andy Street toppled

    Lol 'shock'
    Polling had it within MoE either way, national polling pointed to a loss for Street
    Shock!
  • theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 273
    DavidL said:

    NeilVW said:

    I agree with MoonRabbit. BBC live feed reporting that Street is 11,400 ahead with only Sandwell to declare. Liam Byrne was ahead by c. 5,000 last time on first preferences. There was only 67,440’votes total. I can’t see Street losing from here. Mark this post. :smile:

    If the Old Politics numbers are right he is going to lose this last seat by about 18k and the whole thing by around 7k.
    There is never an "if" with my numbers ;)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    I’m hoping that after the forthcoming crushing General Election defeat, when Britain is moving forward socially, some of those on here who are stuck in a right wing rut will free themselves.

    The Conservative Party needs them and it’s not going to come about with all this antediluvian culture war guff.
    Why? We're winning.
    No you really haven’t, not even remotely.

    As you will discover on General Election night.

    Seriously, this new tendency for Conservatives to stick their fingers in their ears and not listen to the country should really worry those who want them to return any time soon.

    The country is moving on. Don’t get left behind.
    Are you very bossy and opinionated in real life, or just on PB?
    Heathener doesn’t exist off PB, she's a Leon. As he's freely admitted on several occasions.
    Heathener is a she.
    Read the post.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    NeilVW said:

    I agree with MoonRabbit. BBC live feed reporting that Street is 11,400 ahead with only Sandwell to declare. Liam Byrne was ahead by c. 5,000 last time on first preferences. There was only 67,440 votes total. I can’t see Street losing from here. Mark this post. :smile:

    Never agree with the rabbit. #1 rule of 2024.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    I’m hoping that after the forthcoming crushing General Election defeat, when Britain is moving forward socially, some of those on here who are stuck in a right wing rut will free themselves.

    The Conservative Party needs them and it’s not going to come about with all this antediluvian culture war guff.
    Why? We're winning.
    No you really haven’t, not even remotely.

    As you will discover on General Election night.

    Seriously, this new tendency for Conservatives to stick their fingers in their ears and not listen to the country should really worry those who want them to return any time soon.

    The country is moving on. Don’t get left behind.
    Are you very bossy and opinionated in real life, or just on PB?
    Heathener doesn’t exist off PB, she's a Leon. As he's freely admitted on several occasions.
    Heathener is a she.
    Surely they is a they
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,493

    Kate Ferguson must have the worst sources in the entirety of the world. She has been wrong about literally every call for the last two days. Baffling.

    Maybe she’s a Leon. Have the two ever been seen in the same room?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647

    Read the post.

    You said "as he has freely admitted on several occasions". I took that to mean Heathener but if not I apologise.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Polling! Opinium 16 lead both Lab and Tory down 1 (40 to 24)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,237
    nico679 said:

    KFs so called sources have in the space of 48 hrs told us Hall won , and then don’t even know Labour can’t stop a recount. It’s up to the returning officer . Enough already !

    If labour had agreed it would have gone ahead. By them protesting it was pushed to the RO for a decision.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    NeilVW said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think the final result for the London Assembly is Lab 11, Con 8, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Reform 1.

    So just one net loss for Con, not too bad?

    Looks like I backed the wrong horse for WM, so will suck it up when they declare formally.
    Three is a good result for the LDs.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647

    Kate Ferguson must have the worst sources in the entirety of the world. She has been wrong about literally every call for the last two days. Baffling.

    Maybe she’s a Leon. Have the two ever been seen in the same room?
    Are you going to hold your hands up for being wrong too?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    So in summary, if we'd betted based on the polls we'd have made money. Okay will bear that in mind, thanks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Could I repost my comment from late evening on 3rd May:
    Foxy said:

    kamski said:

    What's going on in the London Mayoral race? No votes have been counted yet, so hold on to your hats.. but it is clear tonight that the race is much much closer than some polls had suggested...

    https://x.com/bbclaurak/status/1786499484676985054

    On what basis is 'it clear' Laura?

    Well, 'some polls' had Khan winning by more than 20% - surely that's no longer plausible?
    Not totally implausible. There were 13 London by elections yesterday, and...

    The point here is - it looks like, overall, council voting in London looks very similar to the 2022 Locals, when Labour won by 17 pts across the capital (43%-26%).

    So question is: how likely is it that the same voters giving Lab a ~17 pt lead, also elect Susan Hall?


    https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1786486290487103810

    Khan is meh, but is he really that meh?

    Still, we'll know soon enough. Though if I were a CCHQ operative, I'd be trying to stuff the boxes to make sure Hall doesn't win.
    Similarly, when we look at results in the West Mids we see Con holding on in Walsall and Solihull, but losing to Labour in Dudley it is hard to see why the same swing to Lab (albeit less than other bits of the country) would be different for the Mayoral campaign.

    Currently Lab is 8 on Bfx for what appears to be a toss up. There may well be value there.

    Glad I put a few quid on.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407


    John Stevens

    @johnestevens
    ·
    1m
    BREAKING: Labour pulls off shock victory in West Midlands as Tory Andy Street toppled

    Lol 'shock'
    Polling had it within MoE either way, national polling pointed to a loss for Street
    Shock!
    If there's a lesson for me it's to take mayoral polling much more seriously in future.

    They've largely been there or thereabouts.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Sky call it for LAB

    Please explain
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174
    I assume Labour thought they'd lost based on the Birmingham result which was frankly poor for them
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411

    Read the post.

    You said "as he has freely admitted on several occasions". I took that to mean Heathener but if not I apologise.
    No need for an apology, my post was probably not clear. I am alleging that Heatherner is a made up character, by the poster currently known as Leon. As *he* has admitted periodically.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    IanB2 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think the final result for the London Assembly is Lab 11, Con 8, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Reform 1.

    So just one net loss for Con, not too bad?

    Looks like I backed the wrong horse for WM, so will suck it up when they declare formally.
    Three is a good result for the LDs.
    Yes, especially with their first constituency seat.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559


    John Stevens

    @johnestevens
    ·
    1m
    BREAKING: Labour pulls off shock victory in West Midlands as Tory Andy Street toppled

    Lol 'shock'
    Polling had it within MoE either way, national polling pointed to a loss for Street
    Shock!
    Twas Tory "strategists" and punter rampers that made Street's lose a "Shock!"

    The former for (our) fun, the later for (their) profit.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    None of the WM mayoral polls picked up the strong Independent showing though.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Andy_JS said:

    Kicking myself that I didn't cash out on Hall when she was 4/1. Live and learn.

    TBF you were backing your instincts. You were one of the more consistent in suggesting (albeit not outright predicting) a Hall victory until quite late this morning. Nothing wrong with backing yourself but clearly wrong call this time.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers
    No, it will seem awfully passé and a peculiar fad of the late 10s/early 20s in a few years time.

    Many people will study in future how it happened that we became so obsessed with identity and intersectionalism.
    Let's hope so. My only real worry about Labour in govt is that they will embrace Tavistock style gender nonsense & Self ID rather than seeing it for the 21st Century eugenics it is. Sir Keir has already played both sides of the argument, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he approves sending kids for surgery once he's in power if a twitter poll says it's popular
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    nico679 said:

    KFs so called sources have in the space of 48 hrs told us Hall won , and then don’t even know Labour can’t stop a recount. It’s up to the returning officer . Enough already !

    If labour had agreed it would have gone ahead. By them protesting it was pushed to the RO for a decision.
    No it’s up to the RO to make the decision regardless of what Labour said . That’s the law . The Tories got what they deserved with their last minute attempts at mud slinging and false accusations.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,543
    edited May 4
    "Stephen Bush
    @stephenkb

    I’ve seen enough: Richard Parker (Lab) has won the West Midlands mayoralty."

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786831492544340311

    Around a 0.2% margin apparently.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647

    Read the post.

    You said "as he has freely admitted on several occasions". I took that to mean Heathener but if not I apologise.
    No need for an apology, my post was probably not clear. I am alleging that Heatherner is a made up character, by the poster currently known as Leon. As *he* has admitted periodically.
    No there is as I made a false statement regarding your post. I apologise and hope you will accept it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,493

    Kate Ferguson must have the worst sources in the entirety of the world. She has been wrong about literally every call for the last two days. Baffling.

    Maybe she’s a Leon. Have the two ever been seen in the same room?
    Are you going to hold your hands up for being wrong too?
    I just fed you the vibe straight from Sky news.

    They look in shock.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    For what it is worth, I have always had very nice interactions with @Heathener privately and they have been very kind to me over many years.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647

    Kate Ferguson must have the worst sources in the entirety of the world. She has been wrong about literally every call for the last two days. Baffling.

    Maybe she’s a Leon. Have the two ever been seen in the same room?
    Are you going to hold your hands up for being wrong too?
    I just fed you the vibe straight from Sky news.

    They look in shock.
    No you said Street had won. Accept you were wrong.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Read the post.

    You said "as he has freely admitted on several occasions". I took that to mean Heathener but if not I apologise.
    No need for an apology, my post was probably not clear. I am alleging that Heatherner is a made up character, by the poster currently known as Leon. As *he* has admitted periodically.
    Except that evidence (cf. Byronic) suggests that he’s appalling at writing in character. Every reincarnation has the same views and same tics and is spotted before its posts get into double figures.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    isam said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers
    No, it will seem awfully passé and a peculiar fad of the late 10s/early 20s in a few years time.

    Many people will study in future how it happened that we became so obsessed with identity and intersectionalism.
    Let's hope so. My only real worry about Labour in govt is that they will embrace Tavistock style gender nonsense & Self ID rather than seeing it for the 21st Century eugenics it is. Sir Keir has already played both sides of the argument, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he approves sending kids for surgery once he's in power if a twitter poll says it's popular
    They're already behind the curve on this.

    They just don't know it yet.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Kicking myself that I didn't cash out on Hall when she was 4/1. Live and learn.

    TBF you were backing your instincts. You were one of the more consistent in suggesting (albeit not outright predicting) a Hall victory until quite late this morning. Nothing wrong with backing yourself but clearly wrong call this time.
    Yes Andy had a view and stuck to it. It's the people that about turned on one nonsense Tweet and then hope we have forgotten that annoy me.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,493

    NeilVW said:

    I agree with MoonRabbit. BBC live feed reporting that Street is 11,400 ahead with only Sandwell to declare. Liam Byrne was ahead by c. 5,000 last time on first preferences. There was only 67,440 votes total. I can’t see Street losing from here. Mark this post. :smile:

    Never agree with the rabbit. #1 rule of 2024.
    Mark this post 😇
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    Kate Ferguson must have the worst sources in the entirety of the world. She has been wrong about literally every call for the last two days. Baffling.

    Maybe she’s a Leon. Have the two ever been seen in the same room?
    Are you going to hold your hands up for being wrong too?
    I still made money.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers
    Woke is crystallised stupidity. It's up there with tulip fever, trephinning, and carrying a head scratcher because your three foot powdered wig is full of lice. It's a vulgarity of our age. That's how it will be looked upon.

    You can choose to go with it because everyone else is, or you can step back from it and realise 'Oh, that's a bit fucking daft'. Go with it, and you hand the right wing the moral and intellectual high ground, as we've seen over trans.
    You’re dying out guys. Sorry. But your day is past.

    The country is itching to move on from the older, gammon and boomer, men.

    A bright new, pink, open dawn approaches. I am celebrating.
    And therein lies the seeds of your own future destruction.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    IanB2 said:

    Read the post.

    You said "as he has freely admitted on several occasions". I took that to mean Heathener but if not I apologise.
    No need for an apology, my post was probably not clear. I am alleging that Heatherner is a made up character, by the poster currently known as Leon. As *he* has admitted periodically.
    Except that evidence (cf. Byronic) suggests that he’s appalling at writing in character. Every reincarnation has the same views and same tics and is spotted before its posts get into double figures.
    Yes Heathener is an unusually compelling character if she is really some kind of Leon sock puppet. The consistent use of full stops certainly suggests Leon's not involved. I tend to assume people on here are who they say they are, it seems the respectful thing to do.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Kicking myself that I didn't cash out on Hall when she was 4/1. Live and learn.

    TBF you were backing your instincts. You were one of the more consistent in suggesting (albeit not outright predicting) a Hall victory until quite late this morning. Nothing wrong with backing yourself but clearly wrong call this time.
    Yes Andy had a view and stuck to it. It's the people that about turned on one nonsense Tweet and then hope we have forgotten that annoy me.
    What about people who claim high turnout in Putney on election day meant the Red Wall was safe for Labour in the GE of 2019?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    What will Sunak do with his helicopter booking now ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,543
    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy Street is pretty woke, look at all the woke stuff brought in when he ran John Lewis.

    A bit baffling an anti-woke crowd would celebrate him winning.

    To be honest, it's 2024 (not 1924). Most people are woke now shirley? A few dinosaurs remain but in time they will see the light or die off...
    Woke is slowly dying.
    Nope... war on woke will end with the boomers
    Woke is crystallised stupidity. It's up there with tulip fever, trephinning, and carrying a head scratcher because your three foot powdered wig is full of lice. It's a vulgarity of our age. That's how it will be looked upon.

    You can choose to go with it because everyone else is, or you can step back from it and realise 'Oh, that's a bit fucking daft'. Go with it, and you hand the right wing the moral and intellectual high ground, as we've seen over trans.
    You’re dying out guys. Sorry. But your day is past.

    The country is itching to move on from the older, gammon and boomer, men.

    A bright new, pink, open dawn approaches. I am celebrating.
    Gammons are pink.
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    I doubt that Galloway will be too pleased!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Kicking myself that I didn't cash out on Hall when she was 4/1. Live and learn.

    TBF you were backing your instincts. You were one of the more consistent in suggesting (albeit not outright predicting) a Hall victory until quite late this morning. Nothing wrong with backing yourself but clearly wrong call this time.
    Yes Andy had a view and stuck to it. It's the people that about turned on one nonsense Tweet and then hope we have forgotten that annoy me.
    What about people who claim high turnout in Putney on election day meant the Red Wall was safe for Labour in the GE of 2019?
    I remember an excited Tweet doing the rounds early on election night in 2019 that Johnson lost Uxbridge. That people still fall for any old shite after the platform has been around 17 years now amazes me. And I mean “people”. It’s not a partisan thing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    IanB2 said:

    Read the post.

    You said "as he has freely admitted on several occasions". I took that to mean Heathener but if not I apologise.
    No need for an apology, my post was probably not clear. I am alleging that Heatherner is a made up character, by the poster currently known as Leon. As *he* has admitted periodically.
    Except that evidence (cf. Byronic) suggests that he’s appalling at writing in character. Every reincarnation has the same views and same tics and is spotted before its posts get into double figures.
    As he has semi-ironically admitted, several of Heatheners' tales are very tall, with marked inconsistencies, and as I've noted, she is very close to Leon in occupation, geographical location, etc. She is a preposterous parody of woke. I salute him for doing it masterfully.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Andy_JS said:

    Kicking myself that I didn't cash out on Hall when she was 4/1. Live and learn.

    I probably owe @IanB2 on this because he made me think twice about taking profit.
This discussion has been closed.